New Delhi, India

India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Monday (Apr 15) announced that the nation is likely to experience above-normal cumulative rainfall in the 2024 monsoon season. The weather department said that the La Nina conditions, linked to good monsoon in India, are likely to set in by August-September. 

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IMD said in its release that the forecast based on both dynamical and statistical models suggests that quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall from June to September is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average, which means the long-term average. 

The LPA of the season rainfall from June to September over the country as a whole based on the data of 1971-2020 is 87 cm. 

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During a news conference, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the Director General of IMD, said: "According to the rainfall data from 1971 till 2020, we have introduced new long-period average and normal. According to this normal, from June 1 to 30 September, the average of the total rainfall of the entire country will be 87 cm." 

The official release also mentioned that the normal cumulative rainfall, however, does not guarantee uniform temporal and spatial distribution of rain across the country, with climate change further increasing the variability of the rain-bearing system. 

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The IMD chief further said that the data from 1951 to 2023 shows that India experienced above-normal monsoon rainfall on nine occasions when La Nina followed the El Nino event. 

IMD's release mentioned that moderate El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region currently. Several climate model forecasts have indicated that El Niño conditions are likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions in the early part of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the second half of monsoon season. 

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The neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean at present. As per the climate indicators, positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the southwest monsoon season. 

The report also mentioned that the winter and spring snow cover extent over the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a "generally inverse relationship with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall". 

The northern hemisphere snow cover areas during January to March 2024 were observed to be below normal. 

(With inputs from agencies)