Voting for the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections concluded on February 5, with 699 candidates contesting across all 70 seats. The election has seen a closely fought contest between the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), with the Indian National Congress (INC) also fielding candidates. While pollsters have presented varying projections, the Phalodi Satta Bazaar has introduced an alternative forecast, indicating a potential deadlock between AAP and BJP.

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What is Phalodi Satta Bazaar?

The Phalodi Satta Bazaar is a well-known betting market that often provides a unique perspective on election outcomes, drawing attention for its predictions in the lead-up to polls. Located in Rajasthan, this market is known for its speculative nature, where traders place bets on various political events and results. 

Phalodi Satta Bazaar’s predictions

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According to projections reported by local media, the betting market suggests that AAP could win between 34 and 36 seats, while the BJP is also expected to secure a similar range of 34 to 36 seats. The INC, which once dominated Delhi’s political landscape, is projected to win zero or one seat. With 36 seats needed to form a majority government, the forecast indicates a highly competitive outcome, contrasting with some exit polls that leaned towards a clearer mandate.

If the final results align with these projections, Delhi could witness a political deadlock, requiring post-election negotiations and possible alliances. The close margins leave room for potential shifts in support, with both AAP and BJP likely assessing coalition options if neither secures an outright majority.

Exit polls prediction

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Various exit polls have projected different outcomes for the 2025 Delhi Assembly elections. Chanakya Strategies predicts BJP securing 39-44 seats, AAP winning 25-28, and Congress getting 2-3 seats. Matrize estimates BJP at 35-40 seats, AAP at 32-37, and Congress at 0-1. P-Marq suggests the BJP could win 39-44 seats, AAP 21-31, and Congress 0-1. People's Pulse presents a wider range, projecting BJP at 51-60 seats, AAP at 10-18, and Congress at 0-1.

People's Insight forecasts the BJP winning 40-44 seats, AAP 25-28, and Congress 0-1. Poll Diary's estimates place BJP at 42-50 seats, AAP at 18-25, and Congress at 0-2. Lastly, JVC predicts BJP securing 39-45 seats, AAP 22-31, and Congress 0-2. These varying projections indicate a highly competitive electoral outcome, with BJP leading in most predictions.

Key constituencies and candidates

One of the most closely watched contests is in the New Delhi constituency, where former chief minister Arvind Kejriwal is seeking re-election. Kejriwal, who has represented the seat since 2013, faces competition from the BJP's Pravesh Verma and Congress’ Sandeep Dixit. Similar three-way contests in some constituencies may influence the overall outcome, particularly in seats where margins are expected to be slim.

The BJP’s prospects may be influenced by recent policy decisions, including the central government’s tax relief measures announced in the February 1 Union Budget. Meanwhile, AAP has relied on its governance record and promises of continued social welfare policies. With results scheduled to be declared on February 8, the final outcome will determine whether Delhi witnesses continuity or a shift in leadership.