Explained: Scenarios for all teams to qualify for the 2025 World Test Championship final

The race for the qualification to the World Test Championship (WTC) final is going down to the wire as a host of teams prepare to battle for the biggest prize in red-ball cricket. While the India-Australia series will have a lot to ride on, the New Zealand-England series will also attract a lot of attention as a place in the final at Lord’s in 2025 is up for grabs. With big series and matches on the way, here are all the scenarios for the race to the WTC 2025 final.

WTC final place up for grabs

With the top two nations in the WTC standings earning a place to play in the final, it will be vital for the nations to finish atop. While Australia and India currently occupy the top two places, that won’t be the case at the end of their five-match series with them going head-to-head. This would mean, that at least one team will miss out as the losing team in the series and will acquire a poor win percentage. New Zealand, South Africa and Sri Lanka are therefore in the frame for the second spot in the WTC final.

1. India’s scenario

P 14 | W 8 | D 1 | L 5 | Pen -2 | Points 98 | PCT% 58.33

Remaining Tests:Five v Australia (away)

Form guide:L L L W W

Having lost to New Zealand 0-3, India’s fate will be decided by the Border-Gavaskar Trophy which starts on Nov 22 in Perth. Despite the series defeat, Rohit Sharma’s men have their fate in their own hands and could reach the final by winning 4-0 or a better result Down Under. Any other result will see India’s fate lie out of their hands and will need a helping hand from other teams with certain equations to be met.

2. Australia’s scenario

P 12 | W 8 | D 1 | L 3 | Pen -10 | Points 90 | PCT% 62.50

Remaining Tests:Five v India (home), two v Sri Lanka (away)

Form guide (most recent first):W W L W W

Five wins out of seven reaming matches would guarantee Pat Cummins and Co. participation in June's final. If Australia win four and lose three, they could miss out on the top two if New Zealand win 3-0 against England and South Africa win three of their four Tests against Pakistan and Sri Lanka. However, any Kiwi slip-up in this scenario (even a 2-0 win) would see the Aussies progress.

3. Sri Lanka

P 9 | W 5 | D 0 | L 4 | Pen 0 | Points 60 | PCT% 55.56

Remaining Tests:Two v South Africa (away), two v Australia (home)

Form guide:W W W L L

Sri Lanka will definitely need some other results to go their way but the possibility of them making their first WTC Final is real. The key for the Lankans will be winning both Tests against Australia at home, which opens up several avenues for progression, especially if they can steal a win or a draw in South Africa.

ALSO READ |Afg vs Ban: Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Azmatullah Omarzai propel Afghanistan to series win over Bangladesh

4. New Zealand

P 11 | W 6 | D 0 | L 5 | Pen 0 | Points 72 | PCT% 54.55

Remaining Tests:Three v England (home)

Form guide:W W W L L

New Zealand stormed back into calculations with a stunning 3-0 victory over India away from home. A clean sweep of England, just like against the Indians, would guarantee the 2021 champions another WTC Final appearance. A2-1 win would also work for the Kiwis, but in all likelihood a drawn series or worse would end their campaign.

5. South Africa

P 8 | W 4 | D 1 | L 3 | Pen 0 | Points 52 | PCT% 54.17

Remaining Tests:Two v Sri Lanka (home), two v Pakistan (home)

Form guide:W W W D L

South Africa are in the enviable position of having all their remaining matches at home. Should they win all four (and even three could be enough), they will find themselves in their maiden WTC Final. It's a stunning turnaround for the Proteas, who as recently as February sent a second-choice side to New Zealand. Since then, South Africa knocked off West Indies 1-0 in August and crushed Bangladesh 2-0 in October.