OPEC+ eyes fresh oil output hike: What it means for global energy markets

In a move that could reshape the global oil landscape yet again, OPEC+ is considering increasing its crude output by over 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July, as per sources cited by Reuters.

This comes amid rising internal tensions within the group and growing geopolitical pressures, particularly from overproducing members such as Kazakhstan.

The alliance, which includes members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and key non-OPEC allies like Russia, has already hiked output by 411,000 bpd for both May and June 2025.

However, the July increase could be larger, according to four sources familiar with ongoing talks, as reported by Reuters on 31 May.

Discontent within OPEC+stirs push for more output

Eight major producers within OPEC+, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Kazakhstan have been ramping up production more quickly than initially agreed, even as oil prices face downward pressure.

According to Reuters, this strategy is partly designed to discipline non-compliant members and recapture lost market share in a volatile energy environment.

Kazakhstan, in particular, has stirred unease. On Thursday, it publicly announced that it would not cut output—a move seen as open defiance of OPEC+ norms. “Kazakhstan’s repeated public displays of production defiance do raise the risk of an even bigger output increase,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told Reuters.

However, she added that she still sees a 411,000-bpd hike in July as the most likely scenario.

The group’s internal rifts are expected to dominate the upcoming virtual meeting scheduled for 0900 GMT on Saturday, with output policy for July being the central point of debate.

Oil prices under pressure

OPEC+’s supply dynamics are unfolding in the backdrop of falling oil prices. In April 2025, global oil prices slumped to a four-year low, dipping below $60 per barrel, largely due to the group’s earlier announcement of tripling output and growing concerns about a global economic slowdown.

The price of Brent crude closed just below $63 per barrel on Friday, Reuters reported.

Adding to market jitters are renewed fears over US-led trade tensions. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on key exports from China, India, and Pakistan have reignited concerns about a wider slowdown in demand, especially in emerging markets.

Russia and Saudi Arabia: Pulling the levers

According to Reuters, Saudi Arabia, and Russia, the two largest producers in the group are leading the push to increase output and pressure non-compliant allies.

Sources reported by Reuters suggest this is a deliberate strategy to bring rogue producers like Kazakhstan in line by essentially flooding the market and reducing their price advantage.

Meanwhile, some overproducing members are being asked to offset their extra output in upcoming months, but Kazakhstan’s stance suggests it may not comply.

The implications could be far-reaching, as persistent overproduction may reportedly force Saudi Arabia and Russia to leverage larger group-wide hikes to rebalance the equation.

In an earlier statement on Tuesday, UAE’s Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed Al Mazrouei said OPEC+ was doing its best to “balance the oil market”, but did not reveal specific plans for July output, as reported by Reuters.

Industry outlook

The global oil industry is at a critical juncture. The transition to green energy, increasing electric vehicle penetration, and policy headwinds in the West have already dampened long-term demand projections.

Now, with reportedlyinternal fractures within OPEC+ and rising geopolitical uncertainty, the near-term future remains equally murky.

For now, the world waits to see whether OPEC+ will proceed with a moderate hike of 411,000 bpd or a larger-than-expected increase, which could test the group’s unity and influence in global markets.