New Delhi, India

The United States economy shrank in the first half of this year, confirming concerns about a general downturn that might trigger a recession. At the same time, a measure that frequently indicates the rate of layoffs—the number of persons applying for unemployment benefits—fell to a five-month low. The decrease shows that businesses are keeping their employees despite the downturn in growth and that those who are let go swiftly find other employment. 

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The unemployment rate is close to a 50-year low, and hiring is still quite robust. Few experts believe that we are now in a recession because of the strength of the labour market. Economists anticipate the economy will grow as long as people continue to spend money, albeit slowly.

Recession is often defined as a six-month period of decline. But in a post-pandemic economy when growth is low but the employment market is robust, nothing is straightforward. Since growth abruptly came to an end in March 2020 when Covid-19 hit and 22 million Americans were suddenly out of work, the path of the economy has baffled officials at the Federal Reserve as well as many private economists. 

Despite recent drops in gas prices and other expenses, inflation is still close to its highest point in four decades. Despite many workers receiving salary hikes, inflation is still so high that Americans' purchasing power is declining. Households with lower incomes, those who are Black and Hispanic, and those who are struggling to pay their bills are disproportionately feeling the burden.

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Who decides?

The National Bureau of Economic Research, whose Business Cycle Dating Committee defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months," is the organisation that formally declares recessions. 

The committee uses job trends as a significant indicator for assessing recessions. Numerous other data points are also evaluated, such as measures of income, employment, inflation-adjusted expenditure, retail sales, and manufacturing production. It gives a lot of weight to employment and is an indicator of inflation-adjusted income that doesn't include government benefits like Social Security. 

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However, the NBER frequently waits until after a recession has started, sometimes for as long as a year.

Can a common man sense it?

Yes, as a large number of individuals currently feel more financially pressured. Higher costs have reduced Americans' purchasing power since most people's pay increases have lagged behind inflation. 

According to Walmart, rising gas and food prices have made it necessary for its customers to cut down on discretionary purchases like new apparel. This is a glaring indication that consumer spending, the main engine of the economy, is waning. Walmart, the biggest retailer in the country, has lowered its profit forecast and said that it would have to discount more goods, including furniture and electronics.

Unemployment -- clear signal 

According to analysts, a sustained increase in job losses and a spike in unemployment would be the most obvious signs that a recession is beginning. A recession has always occurred since World War II when the unemployment rate increased by a half percentage point over a period of many months, according to economist and former Fed employee Claudia Sahm. 

Numerous analysts keep track of the number of people who apply for unemployment benefits each week because it shows if layoffs are becoming worse or not. The number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits has decreased to a five-month low, indicating that few firms are using layoffs as a last alternative in the face of a labour shortage.

Inverted yield curve 

Many economists also keep an eye on fluctuations in the interest rates, or yields, on various bonds in search of the "inverted yield curve," a recession indicator. When the yield on a short-term Treasury, such as the 3-month T-bill, is lower than the yield on a 10-year Treasury, this occurs. That is strange. In return for locking up their money for a longer length of time, longer-term bonds often provide investors with a larger yield. 

In general, inverted yield curves indicate that investors anticipate a downturn that will force the Fed to lower interest rates. Recessions frequently precede inverted curves. After the yield curve inverts, a slump may not occur for 18 to 24 months.

Interest rate 

The economy's warning signs—slowing growth and high hiring—have presented a challenge for the Fed. Jerome Powell, the chair, wants a "soft landing, "In which inflation returns to the Fed's 2 per cent objective and the economy slows just enough to restrict wage growth and hiring without triggering a recession. 

Powell has recognised, however, that it is getting harder to come to such a conclusion. He made it plain last week that the Fed will continue raising rates if necessary to control inflation, despite a deteriorating economy that may enter a recession. 

(with inputs from agencies)