Is your coffee getting pricier?: Here’s how climate change and Trump tariff is affecting it

A piping hot cup of coffee has long been a morning ritual for millions. But that ritual is coming with a heavier price tag — and not just because of inflation. From drought-hit plantations in Brazil to unpredictable the US trade policies, the global coffee supply chain is under siege. Here’s why your favorite brew might soon feel like a luxury.

Climate crisis hits coffee farms hard

Climate change is wreaking havoc in coffee-growing regions, especially in Brazil and Vietnam, which are also two powerhouses in global production.

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Extreme heat and prolonged drought have reduced yields drastically, driving up bean prices across the board. As reported by the Associated Press (AP), global green coffee exports fell by 14.2% in February compared to last year.

Reneé Colón, owner of Fuego Coffee Roasters in New York, told AP that she paid $5.50 per pound for beans in March, a sharp jump from just $2.50 in September. That’s more than double the cost in just six months.

She warned of worsening scarcity: “Coffee is going to become scarcer. The Brazilian crop loss we just saw is a prime example of how climate extremes are affecting supply,” she told AP.

Trump tariffs brew fresh trouble

As if climate wasn’t enough, the US import tariffs under President Donald Trump are further tightening the screws.

Currently, a 10% import tariff applies to coffee imports from Brazil, Ethiopia, and Colombia — three major coffee-exporting nations. Trump had also threatened 46% tariffs on Vietnamese coffee and 32% on Indonesian imports. Although these specific hikes were paused, the mere announcements sent shockwaves through the coffee industry.

Coffee buyers and roasters are struggling to make sense of the constant policy flip-flops.

“It felt like a rollercoaster,” said Daria Whalen, a buyer at Ritual Coffee Roasters, while speaking to AP. She described being in Mexico during April as she scrambled to secure contracts amid uncertainty over which tariffs would take effect and when. “By the end of the day, sometimes the tariffs just disappeared,” she added.

This unpredictability is forcing businesses to rework supply chains. Many roasters are now pre-buying stock, fearing future tariffs. But that also drives up short-term demand and prices.

Prices, profits and panic: A triple-whammy situation

Coffee roasters are now walking a tightrope: how much of the rising cost can they absorb, and how much can they pass on to consumers?

Colón shared with AP that her business has already raised wholesale bean prices by 25 cents per pound and may soon raise prices for espresso drinks and pour-overs at her cafes. Yet, she’s wary of losing customers as consumer confidence in the U.S. hits a 12-year low.

“It’s tough on every side,” she told AP. “The price goes up for us, the consumer pays more, and the farmers suffer massive losses from droughts and storms.”

How small businesses are adapting?

Despite the odds, Colón is expanding. According to AP, she and her husband took out a $50,000 loan in December to purchase a custom coffee roaster from Turkey, tripling their roasting capacity. They’re also focusing on direct-to-consumer sales through a subscription model and pursuing more wholesale clients.

To save costs, she’s exploring in-house storage of raw beans, avoiding monthly charges of $500 at port-side warehouses.

And while international suppliers have approached her with cost-saving alternatives — like routing coffee through Canada due to a strong U.S. dollar — Colón isn’t biting.

“That adds more borders, more delays, more confusion,” she told AP. “I want things to be less complicated, not more.”