US election: Opinion poll shows Harris holds narrow lead over Trump, but razor-thin edge starting to fray
Donald Trump, Kamala Harris
Democratic candidate Kamala Harris narrowly leads Republican rival Donald Trump in the US presidential race, according to the latest opinion poll by statistical website FiveThirtyEight, just days ahead of Election Day.
The data from its daily election poll tracker also reveals that the US vice president's razor-thin edge has slightly decreased over the past two months, while Trump has secured a 0.9 percentage-point gain since October 1.
However, after factoring in the Electoral College outcome, the US pollster says its model shows Trump has a 54 out of 100 chance of winning the election, while Harris has a 46 out of 100 chance.
According to the poll analysis site, the contest will boil down to the seven swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — which account for 90 electoral votes.
FiveThirtyEight credits its forecast to a combination of polls and campaign "fundamentals" such as economic conditions, state partisanship and incumbency, as per its website.
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What is FiveThirtyEight?
Founded by Nate Silver in 2007, the website derives its name from the total number of electors in the United States Electoral College. Initially, it was licensed to The New York Times.
The company was acquired by ESPN in 2013, which retained Silver as its editor-in-chief and a contributor for the sports publication owned by Disney. Five years later, in 2018, its operations were transferred to ABC News, also under the parent The Walt Disney Company.
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In 2023, Nate Silver parted ways with ABC — in the wake of the lay-offs at Disney — FiveThirtyEight to set up his own website, Silver Bulletin, while retaining the rights to his forecasting model.
What is its history of predictions?
In 2008, the pollster had predicted a decisive win for Barack Obama, projecting that the Democratic candidate would win 349 electoral college votes while his Republican challenger, John McCain, would secure 189.
Obama went on to win 365 electoral votes and 52.9 per cent of the popular votes.
In 2012, the site also predicted Obama's re-election with more than a 90 per cent chance.
However, in 2016, Nate Silver faced criticism as his prediction model gave Donald Trump a mere 29 per cent chance of winning. Trump went on to win his first shot at the presidency, becoming the 45th POTUS.
The website adopted a more nuanced approach in 2020, forecasting Joe Biden's victory but calling it a 'fine line between a landslide and nail-biter'. When the results trickled in, Joe Biden won 306 electoral votes against Donald Trump's 232.
Can it get it right this time?
