Japan could get its first female Prime Minister on Friday after ‘toss-up’ vote

Japan could get its first woman or youngest-ever prime minister on Friday when the ruling party holds a leadership vote described as the most "unpredictable" in many years.

A record nine candidates are in the running after the long-powerful factions of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) disbanded earlier this year over a funding scandal.

Because the conservative LDP holds a parliamentary majority, the winner is certain to become prime minister, and will likely call a snap election to shore up their mandate.

Three frontrunners have emerged in polling: former defence minister Shigeru Ishiba, 43-year-old Shinjiro Koizumi –the son of a popular ex-premier–and nationalist hardliner Sanae Takaichi, who would be the first woman in the job.

Whoever wins must face down regional security threats, from an increasingly assertive China and its deepening defence ties with Russia to North Korea's banned missile tests.

At home, the leader will be tasked with breathing life into the economy, as the central bank moves away from decades of monetary easing that has slashed the value of the yen.

In debates and campaigning, many candidates "have claimed that 'I'm the one who can handle Trump' or 'I'm the one who can stand up to China'", Jeffrey JHall, a lecturer at Kanda University of International Studies, told AFP.

But there are significant differences in their approach to such issues, and although some of the nine have "no hope whatsoever", the race remains "a toss-up".

"This is the most unpredictable that an LDP election has been in many years," Hall said.

- 'Fair and square' Ishiba -

LDP presidents are in office for three years and can serve up to three straight terms. Unpopular Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is not running for re-election.

With the factions dissolved, it's unlikely that any one candidate will win enough votes–split between lawmakers and rank-and-file party members–to win outright.

That makes a run-off between two top candidates the most likely scenario, with the winner announced Friday afternoon.

Ishiba, 67, has come close to the top job before, including in 2012 when he lost to arch-rival Shinzo Abe, Japan's longest serving leader who was later assassinated.

The military model-maker with an affinity for 1970s pop idols once alienated party veterans with his "outspoken criticism of LDP policies under Abe", said Yu Uchiyama, a political science professor at the University of Tokyo.

But this time, "with public discontent with the LDP rising, the tide is in favour of Ishiba and his 'fair and square' attitude," Uchiyama told AFP.
Economic Security Minister Takaichi, 63, is "the most conservative of the top three" and "not the candidate that feminists would want", Hall said.

She is opposed to changing the law to allow separate surnames for married couples, and regularly visits Tokyo's Yasukuni war shrine–a flashpoint in relations with South Korea and China.

However, Naofumi Fujimura, a professor at the Graduate School of Law at Kobe University, said that while for now she needs the support of the LDP's right-wingers, she could perhaps be "more centrist, or more pragmatic" as prime minister.

- Koizumi offers 'rejuvenation' -

Photogenic former environment minister Koizumi would be Japan's youngest ever prime minister, but critics–including his own father, former premier Junichiro Koizumi –say he is too inexperienced to lead the country.

Keen surfer Koizumi "best personifies the idea of rejuvenation and change for the LDP" among the frontrunners, but LDP voters could think he "lacks stability", Uchiyama said.

The other six candidates include reformist Taro Kono, 61, and Toshimitsu Motegi, dubbed the "Trump whisperer" for his handling of the former US president in tough trade talks.

Also running are chief cabinet secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi and Takayuki Kobayashi, the only other candidate under 50 –seen as a wild card by some experts

Whoever emerges victorious on Friday will be formally elected by parliament on October 1.

The LDP has governed Japan almost uninterrupted for decades, with the main opposition parties rarely seen as viable alternatives.

During his term, Kishida has taken steps to double Japan's defence spending, opening the door for military exports as the LDP seeks to revise Japan's pacifist post-war constitution.

He welcomed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to a G7 summit in Hiroshima, and has strengthened Japan's often testy ties with its neighbour South Korea.

But his rule was also tarnished by scandals, voter anger over rising prices and sliding poll ratings.

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