At an emergency session of the security council on Ukraine, India while expressing its "concern" has called for "de-escalation of tensions".&nbsp;

The session was held hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced recognition of Eastern Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.&nbsp;

India's envoy to the United Nations TS Tirumurti said, "escalation of tension along the border of Ukraine with the Russian Federation is a matter of deep concern" and these "developments have the potential to undermine peace and security of the region".&nbsp;

Calling for "restraint on all sides", the envoy said, "immediate priority is a de-escalation of tensions taking into account the legitimate security interests of all countries and aimed towards securing long term peace and stability in the region and beyond."&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/vladimir-putin-orders-troops-into-eastern-ukraine-key-points-from-his-crucial-address-455210">Vladimir Putin orders troops into eastern Ukraine: Key points from his crucial address</a>

The meeting happened after Ukraine sent a letter asking for an emergency session. Following this many countries, led by the US asked for the meeting. Interestingly, Russia is the President of the Security Council for February.&nbsp;

The Indian envoy emphasising "diplomatic dialogue" welcomed the efforts through "Trilateral Contact Group and under the Normandy format", warning that "we cannot afford to have a military escalation."&nbsp;

He also mentioned the Minsk pacts which he said: "Provide a basis for a negotiated and peaceful settlement". Minsk pact which includes Russia, Ukraine, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe OSCE is a 2014/2015 agreement that calls for a ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine regions of Donetsk, Luhansk and others among other things.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/explainer-what-will-russian-recognition-of-breakaway-ukraine-regions-mean-455193">Explainer: What will Russian recognition of breakaway Ukraine regions mean?</a>

The Normandy format of talks includes Germany, France and members of the Minsk pact and basically focuses on the pact's implementation.&nbsp;

At the meet, envoy Tirumurti said, "constructive diplomacy is need of the hour to avoid scaling up of tensions" and reiterate that the "well-being of Indian nationals is of priority to us."&nbsp;

Around twenty thousand Indian students and nationals live and study in different parts of Ukraine.&nbsp;

India has been making efforts to bring back its nationals from the country and two advisories have been issued. Special Air India flights have been started as well to bring the stranded Indian nationals.&nbsp;

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At an emergency session of the security council on Ukraine, India while expressing its "concern" has called for "de-escalation of tensions". The session was held hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced recognition of Eastern Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.

At an emergency session of the security council on Ukraine, India while expressing its "concern" has called for "de-escalation of tensions". The session was held hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced recognition of Eastern Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. India's envoy to the United Nations TS Tirumurti said, "escalation of tension along the border of Ukraine with the Russian Federation is a matter of deep concern" and these "developments have the potential to undermine peace and security of the region". Calling for "restraint on all sides", the envoy said, "immediate priority is a de-escalation of tensions taking into account the legitimate security interests of all countries and aimed towards securing long term peace and stability in the region and beyond." ALSO READ | Vladimir Putin orders troops into eastern Ukraine: Key points from his crucial address The meeting happened after Ukraine sent a letter asking for an emergency session. Following this many countries, led by the US asked for the meeting. Interestingly, Russia is the President of the Security Council for February. The Indian envoy emphasising "diplomatic dialogue" welcomed the efforts through "Trilateral Contact Group and under the Normandy format", warning that "we cannot afford to have a military escalation." He also mentioned the Minsk pacts which he said: "Provide a basis for a negotiated and peaceful settlement". Minsk pact which includes Russia, Ukraine, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe OSCE is a 2014/2015 agreement that calls for a ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine regions of Donetsk, Luhansk and others among other things. ALSO READ | Explainer: What will Russian recognition of breakaway Ukraine regions mean? The Normandy format of talks includes Germany, France and members of the Minsk pact and basically focuses on the pact's implementation. At the meet, envoy Tirumurti said, "constructive diplomacy is need of the hour to avoid scaling up of tensions" and reiterate that the "well-being of Indian nationals is of priority to us." Around twenty thousand Indian students and nationals live and study in different parts of Ukraine. India has been making efforts to bring back its nationals from the country and two advisories have been issued. Special Air India flights have been started as well to bring the stranded Indian nationals. ×

Ukraine crisis: India expresses concerns; calls for de-escalation of tensions

Russia has decided not to send troops to eastern Ukraine “for now”, but added that it will do so in case of a "threat", the deputy foreign minister said on Tuesday.

The announcement comes after Moscow's parliament ratified cooperation deals with Ukraine's separatist republics.

Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said the treaties include the provision of "military aid" but added that "speculation" on troop deployments should be avoided.

"For now, no one is planning to send anything anywhere. If there is a threat, then we will provide assistance in accordance with the ratified treaties,” he said.

Russia had deployed a few Russian troops to eastern Ukraine as “peacekeepers” after Vladimir Putin recognised Donetsk and Luhansk regions as independent from Ukraine.

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/russia-has-hit-list-of-ukrainians-to-be-killed-after-invasion-claims-us-455387">Russia has ‘hit list’ of Ukrainians to be killed after invasion, claims US</a>

The deployment of troops&nbsp;invited ire from the West leaders, with the United Kingdom imposing sanctions on three Russian banks and three men who are close to Putin.

Britain has threatened to cut off Russian companies' access to US dollars and British pounds, blocking them from raising capital in London and to expose what PM Boris Johnson calls the “Russian doll” of property and company ownership.

The series of announcements comes even as Russia amassed over 150,000 soldiers to regions near Ukraine's borders, with the West fearing Moscow could use them for an attack at any moment.

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/did-family-guy-predict-vladimir-putins-ukraine-strategy-455350">Did Family Guy predict Vladimir Putin's Ukraine strategy?</a>

Meanwhile, Kremlin-backed separatist leader Denis Pushilin said on Tuesday that Moscow formally recognized the breakaway region of Donetsk within the wider boundaries of eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region, much of which is controlled by Ukrainian forces.

Speaking on Russian state television, Pushilin said the matter of the territory not controlled by separatists would be resolved later.

"The border issue is not simple, it will be resolved later," he said.

(With inputs from agencies)

Russia has decided not to send troops to eastern Ukraine “for now”, but added that it will do so in case of a "threat", the deputy foreign minister said on Tuesday.

Russia has decided not to send troops to eastern Ukraine “for now”, but added that it will do so in case of a "threat", the deputy foreign minister said on Tuesday. The announcement comes after Moscow's parliament ratified cooperation deals with Ukraine's separatist republics. Deputy Foreign Minister Andrei Rudenko said the treaties include the provision of "military aid" but added that "speculation" on troop deployments should be avoided. "For now, no one is planning to send anything anywhere. If there is a threat, then we will provide assistance in accordance with the ratified treaties,” he said. Russia had deployed a few Russian troops to eastern Ukraine as “peacekeepers” after Vladimir Putin recognised Donetsk and Luhansk regions as independent from Ukraine. Also read | Russia has ‘hit list’ of Ukrainians to be killed after invasion, claims US The deployment of troops invited ire from the West leaders, with the United Kingdom imposing sanctions on three Russian banks and three men who are close to Putin. Britain has threatened to cut off Russian companies' access to US dollars and British pounds, blocking them from raising capital in London and to expose what PM Boris Johnson calls the “Russian doll” of property and company ownership. The series of announcements comes even as Russia amassed over 150,000 soldiers to regions near Ukraine's borders, with the West fearing Moscow could use them for an attack at any moment. Also read | Did Family Guy predict Vladimir Putin's Ukraine strategy? Meanwhile, Kremlin-backed separatist leader Denis Pushilin said on Tuesday that Moscow formally recognized the breakaway region of Donetsk within the wider boundaries of eastern Ukraine's Donetsk region, much of which is controlled by Ukrainian forces. Speaking on Russian state television, Pushilin said the matter of the territory not controlled by separatists would be resolved later. "The border issue is not simple, it will be resolved later," he said. (With inputs from agencies)

Russia won’t send troops to east Ukraine ‘for now’, says deputy foreign minister

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the French and German leaders on Monday that he planned to sign a decree recognising two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent.

Here's a look at the implications for the wider crisis, in which the United States says Russia may be poised to invade Ukraine with a force of up to 190,000 troops it has massed near its neighbour's borders.

What are the breakaway regions?

Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions - collectively known as the Donbass - broke away from Ukrainian government control in 2014 and proclaimed themselves independent "people's republics", until now unrecognised. Since then, Ukraine says about 15,000 people have been killed in fighting. Russia denies being a party to the conflict but has backed the separatists in numerous ways, including through covert military support, financial aid, supplies of COVID-19 vaccines and the issue of at least 800,000 Russian passports to residents. Moscow has always denied planning to invade Ukraine.

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-imposes-sanctions-on-two-russian-backed-areas-in-eastern-ukraine-455190">US imposes sanctions on two Russian-backed areas in eastern Ukraine</a>

What does Russian recognition mean?

For the first time, Russia is saying it does not regard the Donbass as part of Ukraine. That could pave the way for Moscow to send military forces into the separatist regions openly, using the argument that it is intervening as an ally to protect them against Ukraine. A Russian parliament member and former Donetsk political leader, Alexander Borodai, told Reuters last month that the separatists would then look to Russia to help them wrest control of parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions still under the control of Ukrainian forces. If that happened, it could lead to open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

What about the Minsk peace process?

Russian recognition effectively kills off the 2014-15 Minsk peace agreements that, although still unimplemented, have until now been seen by all sides, including Moscow, as the best chance for a solution. The accords call for a large degree of autonomy for the two regions inside Ukraine.

How will the West respond?

Western governments have been lining up for months to warn Moscow that any movement of military forces across the Ukrainian border would draw a strong response, including stringent financial sanctions.

US&nbsp;Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that recognition "would further undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, constitute a gross violation of international law, (and) call into further question Russia’s stated commitment to continue to engage in diplomacy to achieve a peaceful resolution of this crisis".

He said it would necessitate a "swift and firm" response from the United States and its allies.

Has Russia recognised breakaway statelets before?

Yes - it recognised the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two Georgian breakaway regions, after fighting a short war with Georgia in 2008. It has provided them with extensive budget support, extended Russian citizenship to their populations and stationed thousands of troops there.

What are the pros and cons for Moscow?

In the Georgia case, Russia used recognition of the breakaway regions to justify an open-ended military presence in a neighbouring former Soviet republic in an attempt to indefinitely thwart Georgia's NATO aspirations by denying it full control of its own territory. The same considerations would apply to Ukraine.

On the downside, Moscow faces sanctions and international condemnation for abandoning the Minsk process after long maintaining that it was committed to it. It will also be saddled indefinitely with responsibility for two territories ravaged by eight years of war and in need of massive economic support.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the French and German leaders on Monday that he planned to sign a decree recognising two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the French and German leaders on Monday that he planned to sign a decree recognising two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent. Here's a look at the implications for the wider crisis, in which the United States says Russia may be poised to invade Ukraine with a force of up to 190,000 troops it has massed near its neighbour's borders. What are the breakaway regions? Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions - collectively known as the Donbass - broke away from Ukrainian government control in 2014 and proclaimed themselves independent "people's republics", until now unrecognised. Since then, Ukraine says about 15,000 people have been killed in fighting. Russia denies being a party to the conflict but has backed the separatists in numerous ways, including through covert military support, financial aid, supplies of COVID-19 vaccines and the issue of at least 800,000 Russian passports to residents. Moscow has always denied planning to invade Ukraine. ALSO READ | US imposes sanctions on two Russian-backed areas in eastern Ukraine What does Russian recognition mean? For the first time, Russia is saying it does not regard the Donbass as part of Ukraine. That could pave the way for Moscow to send military forces into the separatist regions openly, using the argument that it is intervening as an ally to protect them against Ukraine. A Russian parliament member and former Donetsk political leader, Alexander Borodai, told Reuters last month that the separatists would then look to Russia to help them wrest control of parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions still under the control of Ukrainian forces. If that happened, it could lead to open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. What about the Minsk peace process? Russian recognition effectively kills off the 2014-15 Minsk peace agreements that, although still unimplemented, have until now been seen by all sides, including Moscow, as the best chance for a solution. The accords call for a large degree of autonomy for the two regions inside Ukraine. How will the West respond? Western governments have been lining up for months to warn Moscow that any movement of military forces across the Ukrainian border would draw a strong response, including stringent financial sanctions. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that recognition "would further undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, constitute a gross violation of international law, (and) call into further question Russia’s stated commitment to continue to engage in diplomacy to achieve a peaceful resolution of this crisis". He said it would necessitate a "swift and firm" response from the United States and its allies. Has Russia recognised breakaway statelets before? Yes - it recognised the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two Georgian breakaway regions, after fighting a short war with Georgia in 2008. It has provided them with extensive budget support, extended Russian citizenship to their populations and stationed thousands of troops there. What are the pros and cons for Moscow? In the Georgia case, Russia used recognition of the breakaway regions to justify an open-ended military presence in a neighbouring former Soviet republic in an attempt to indefinitely thwart Georgia's NATO aspirations by denying it full control of its own territory. The same considerations would apply to Ukraine. On the downside, Moscow faces sanctions and international condemnation for abandoning the Minsk process after long maintaining that it was committed to it. It will also be saddled indefinitely with responsibility for two territories ravaged by eight years of war and in need of massive economic support.

Explainer: What will Russian recognition of breakaway Ukraine regions mean?

After getting battered by the pandemic, supply chain chokeholds and leaps in prices, the global economy is poised to be sent on yet another unpredictable course by an armed clash on Europe’s border.

Even before the Kremlin ordered Russian troops into separatist territories of Ukraine on Monday, the tension had taken a toll. The promise of punishing sanctions in return by President Joe Biden and the potential for Russian retaliation had already pushed down stock returns and driven up gas prices.

An outright attack by Russian troops could cause dizzying spikes in energy and food prices, fuel inflation fears and spook investors, a combination that threatens investment and growth in economies around the world.

However harsh the effects, the immediate impact will be nowhere near as devastating as the sudden economic shutdowns first caused by the coronavirus in 2020. Russia is a transcontinental behemoth with 146 million people and a huge nuclear arsenal, as well as a key supplier of the oil, gas and raw materials that keep the world’s factories running. But unlike China, which is a manufacturing powerhouse and intimately woven into intricate supply chains, Russia is a minor player in the global economy.

Italy, with half the people and fewer natural resources, has an economy that is twice the size. Poland exports more goods to the European Union than Russia.

“Russia is incredibly unimportant in the global economy except for oil and gas,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard economist who was an adviser to President Barack Obama. “It’s basically a big gas station.”

Of course, a closed gas station can be crippling for those who depend on it. The result is that any economic damage will be unevenly spread, intense in some countries and industries and unnoticed in others.

Europe gets nearly 40% of its natural gas and 25% of its oil from Russia, and is likely to be walloped with spikes in heating and gas bills, which are already soaring. Natural gas reserves are at less than one-third of capacity, with weeks of cold weather ahead, and European leaders have already accused Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, of reducing supplies to gain a political edge.

And then there are food prices, which have climbed to their highest level in more than a decade largely because of the pandemic’s supply chain mess, according to a recent United Nations report. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of wheat, and with Ukraine, accounts for nearly one-quarter of total global exports. For some countries, the dependence is much greater. That flow of grain makes up more than 70% of Egypt and Turkey’s total wheat imports.

This will put further strain on Turkey, which is already in the middle of an economic crisis and struggling with inflation that is running close to 50%, with skyrocketing food, fuel and electricity prices.

And as usual, the burden falls heaviest on the most vulnerable. “Poorer people spend a higher share of incomes on food and heating,” said Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at Oxford University.

Ukraine, long known as the “breadbasket of Europe,” actually sends more than 40% of its wheat and corn exports to the Middle East or Africa, where there are worries that further food shortages and price increases could stoke social unrest.

Lebanon, for example, which is experiencing one of the most devastating economic crises in more than a century, gets more than half of its wheat from Ukraine, which is also the world’s largest exporter of seed oils like sunflower and rapeseed.

On Monday, the White House responded to Putin’s decision to recognize the independence of two Russian-backed territories in the country’s east by saying it would begin imposing limited sanctions on the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said Biden would soon issue an executive order prohibiting investment, trade and financing with people in those regions.

Analysts watching the unfolding conflict have mapped out a range of scenarios from mild to severe. The fallout on working-class families and Wall Street traders depends on how an invasion plays out: whether Russian troops stay near the border or attack the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv; whether the fighting lasts for days or months; what kind of Western sanctions are imposed; and whether Putin responds by withholding critical gas supplies from Europe or launching insidious cyberattacks.

“Think about it rolling out in stages,” said Julia Friedlander, director of the economic statecraft initiative at the Atlantic Council. “This is likely to play out as a slow motion drama.”

As became clear from the pandemic, minor interruptions in one region can generate major disruptions far away. Isolated shortages and price surges — whether of gas, wheat, aluminum or nickel — can snowball in a world still struggling to recover from the pandemic.

“You have to look at the backdrop against which this is coming,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY-Parthenon. “There is high inflation, strained supply chains and uncertainty about what central banks are going to do and how insistent price rises are.”

The additional stresses may be relatively small in isolation, but they are piling on economies that are still recovering from the economic body blows inflicted by the pandemic.

What’s also clear, Daco added, is that “political uncertainty and volatility weigh on economic activity.”

That means an invasion could have a dual effect — slowing economic activity and raising prices.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve is already confronting the highest inflation in 40 years, at 7.5% in January, and is expected to start raising interest rates next month. Higher energy prices set off by a conflict in Europe may be transitory but they could feed worries about a wage-price spiral.

“We could see a new burst of inflation,” said Christopher Miller, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an assistant professor at Tufts University.

Also fueling inflation fears are possible shortages of essential metals like palladium, aluminum and nickel, creating another disruption to global supply chains already suffering from the pandemic, trucker blockades in Canada and shortages of semiconductors.

The price of palladium, for example, used in automotive exhaust systems, mobile phones and even dental fillings, has soared in recent weeks because of fears that Russia, the world’s largest exporter of the metal, could be cut off from global markets. The price of nickel, used to make steel and electric car batteries, has also been jumping.

It’s too early to gauge the precise impact of an armed conflict, said Lars Stenqvist, chief technology officer of Volvo, the Swedish truck maker. But he added, “It is a very, very serious thing.”

“We have a number of scenarios on the table and we are following the developments of the situation day by day,” Stenqvist said Monday.

The West has taken steps to blunt the impact on Europe if Putin decides to retaliate. The U.S. has ramped up delivery of liquefied natural gas and asked other suppliers like Qatar to do the same.

The demand for oil might add momentum to negotiations to revive a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Iran, which is estimated to have as many as 80 million barrels of oil in storage, has been locked out of much of the world’s markets since 2018, when President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear accord and reimposed sanctions.

Some of the sanctions against Russia that the Biden administration is considering, such as cutting off access to the system of international payments known as SWIFT or blocking companies from selling anything to Russia that contains American-made components, would hurt anyone who does business with Russia. But across the board, the U.S. is much less vulnerable than the European Union, which is Russia’s largest trading partner.

Americans, as Biden has already warned, are likely to see higher gasoline prices. But because the U.S. is a large producer of natural gas, those price increases are not nearly as steep and as broad as elsewhere. And Europe has many more links to Russia and engages in more financial transactions — including paying for the Russian gas.

Oil companies like Shell and Total have joint ventures in Russia, while BP boasts that it “is one of the biggest foreign investors in Europe,” with ties to the Russian oil company Rosneft. Airbus, the European aviation giant, gets titanium from Russia. And European banks, particularly those in Germany, France and Italy, have lent billions of dollars to Russian borrowers.

“Severe sanctions that hurt Russia painfully and comprehensively have potential to do huge damage to European customers,” said Adam Tooze, director of the European Institute at Columbia University.

Depending on what happens, the most significant effects on the global economy may manifest themselves only over the long run.

One result would be to push Russia to have closer economic ties to China. The two nations recently negotiated a 30-year contract for Russia to supply gas to China through a new pipeline.

“Russia is likely to pivot all energy and commodity exports to China,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

The crisis is also contributing to a reassessment of the global economy’s structure and concerns about self-sufficiency. The pandemic has already highlighted the downsides of far-flung supply chains that rely on lean production.

Now Europe’s dependence on Russian gas is spurring discussions about expanding energy sources, which could further sideline Russia’s presence in the global economy.

“In the longer term, it’s going to push Europe to diversify,” said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow working on international trade policy at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. As for Russia, the real cost “would be corrosive over time and really making it much more difficult to do business with Russian entities and deterring investment.”

After getting battered by the pandemic, supply chain chokeholds and leaps in prices, the global economy is poised to be sent on yet another unpredictable course by an armed clash on Europe’s border.

After getting battered by the pandemic, supply chain chokeholds and leaps in prices, the global economy is poised to be sent on yet another unpredictable course by an armed clash on Europe’s border. Even before the Kremlin ordered Russian troops into separatist territories of Ukraine on Monday, the tension had taken a toll. The promise of punishing sanctions in return by President Joe Biden and the potential for Russian retaliation had already pushed down stock returns and driven up gas prices. An outright attack by Russian troops could cause dizzying spikes in energy and food prices, fuel inflation fears and spook investors, a combination that threatens investment and growth in economies around the world. However harsh the effects, the immediate impact will be nowhere near as devastating as the sudden economic shutdowns first caused by the coronavirus in 2020. Russia is a transcontinental behemoth with 146 million people and a huge nuclear arsenal, as well as a key supplier of the oil, gas and raw materials that keep the world’s factories running. But unlike China, which is a manufacturing powerhouse and intimately woven into intricate supply chains, Russia is a minor player in the global economy. Italy, with half the people and fewer natural resources, has an economy that is twice the size. Poland exports more goods to the European Union than Russia. “Russia is incredibly unimportant in the global economy except for oil and gas,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard economist who was an adviser to President Barack Obama. “It’s basically a big gas station.” Of course, a closed gas station can be crippling for those who depend on it. The result is that any economic damage will be unevenly spread, intense in some countries and industries and unnoticed in others. Europe gets nearly 40% of its natural gas and 25% of its oil from Russia, and is likely to be walloped with spikes in heating and gas bills, which are already soaring. Natural gas reserves are at less than one-third of capacity, with weeks of cold weather ahead, and European leaders have already accused Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, of reducing supplies to gain a political edge. And then there are food prices, which have climbed to their highest level in more than a decade largely because of the pandemic’s supply chain mess, according to a recent United Nations report. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of wheat, and with Ukraine, accounts for nearly one-quarter of total global exports. For some countries, the dependence is much greater. That flow of grain makes up more than 70% of Egypt and Turkey’s total wheat imports. This will put further strain on Turkey, which is already in the middle of an economic crisis and struggling with inflation that is running close to 50%, with skyrocketing food, fuel and electricity prices. And as usual, the burden falls heaviest on the most vulnerable. “Poorer people spend a higher share of incomes on food and heating,” said Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at Oxford University. Ukraine, long known as the “breadbasket of Europe,” actually sends more than 40% of its wheat and corn exports to the Middle East or Africa, where there are worries that further food shortages and price increases could stoke social unrest. Lebanon, for example, which is experiencing one of the most devastating economic crises in more than a century, gets more than half of its wheat from Ukraine, which is also the world’s largest exporter of seed oils like sunflower and rapeseed. On Monday, the White House responded to Putin’s decision to recognize the independence of two Russian-backed territories in the country’s east by saying it would begin imposing limited sanctions on the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said Biden would soon issue an executive order prohibiting investment, trade and financing with people in those regions. Analysts watching the unfolding conflict have mapped out a range of scenarios from mild to severe. The fallout on working-class families and Wall Street traders depends on how an invasion plays out: whether Russian troops stay near the border or attack the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv; whether the fighting lasts for days or months; what kind of Western sanctions are imposed; and whether Putin responds by withholding critical gas supplies from Europe or launching insidious cyberattacks. “Think about it rolling out in stages,” said Julia Friedlander, director of the economic statecraft initiative at the Atlantic Council. “This is likely to play out as a slow motion drama.” As became clear from the pandemic, minor interruptions in one region can generate major disruptions far away. Isolated shortages and price surges — whether of gas, wheat, aluminum or nickel — can snowball in a world still struggling to recover from the pandemic. “You have to look at the backdrop against which this is coming,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY-Parthenon. “There is high inflation, strained supply chains and uncertainty about what central banks are going to do and how insistent price rises are.” The additional stresses may be relatively small in isolation, but they are piling on economies that are still recovering from the economic body blows inflicted by the pandemic. What’s also clear, Daco added, is that “political uncertainty and volatility weigh on economic activity.” That means an invasion could have a dual effect — slowing economic activity and raising prices. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is already confronting the highest inflation in 40 years, at 7.5% in January, and is expected to start raising interest rates next month. Higher energy prices set off by a conflict in Europe may be transitory but they could feed worries about a wage-price spiral. “We could see a new burst of inflation,” said Christopher Miller, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an assistant professor at Tufts University. Also fueling inflation fears are possible shortages of essential metals like palladium, aluminum and nickel, creating another disruption to global supply chains already suffering from the pandemic, trucker blockades in Canada and shortages of semiconductors. The price of palladium, for example, used in automotive exhaust systems, mobile phones and even dental fillings, has soared in recent weeks because of fears that Russia, the world’s largest exporter of the metal, could be cut off from global markets. The price of nickel, used to make steel and electric car batteries, has also been jumping. It’s too early to gauge the precise impact of an armed conflict, said Lars Stenqvist, chief technology officer of Volvo, the Swedish truck maker. But he added, “It is a very, very serious thing.” “We have a number of scenarios on the table and we are following the developments of the situation day by day,” Stenqvist said Monday. The West has taken steps to blunt the impact on Europe if Putin decides to retaliate. The U.S. has ramped up delivery of liquefied natural gas and asked other suppliers like Qatar to do the same. The demand for oil might add momentum to negotiations to revive a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Iran, which is estimated to have as many as 80 million barrels of oil in storage, has been locked out of much of the world’s markets since 2018, when President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear accord and reimposed sanctions. Some of the sanctions against Russia that the Biden administration is considering, such as cutting off access to the system of international payments known as SWIFT or blocking companies from selling anything to Russia that contains American-made components, would hurt anyone who does business with Russia. But across the board, the U.S. is much less vulnerable than the European Union, which is Russia’s largest trading partner. Americans, as Biden has already warned, are likely to see higher gasoline prices. But because the U.S. is a large producer of natural gas, those price increases are not nearly as steep and as broad as elsewhere. And Europe has many more links to Russia and engages in more financial transactions — including paying for the Russian gas. Oil companies like Shell and Total have joint ventures in Russia, while BP boasts that it “is one of the biggest foreign investors in Europe,” with ties to the Russian oil company Rosneft. Airbus, the European aviation giant, gets titanium from Russia. And European banks, particularly those in Germany, France and Italy, have lent billions of dollars to Russian borrowers. “Severe sanctions that hurt Russia painfully and comprehensively have potential to do huge damage to European customers,” said Adam Tooze, director of the European Institute at Columbia University. Depending on what happens, the most significant effects on the global economy may manifest themselves only over the long run. One result would be to push Russia to have closer economic ties to China. The two nations recently negotiated a 30-year contract for Russia to supply gas to China through a new pipeline. “Russia is likely to pivot all energy and commodity exports to China,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. The crisis is also contributing to a reassessment of the global economy’s structure and concerns about self-sufficiency. The pandemic has already highlighted the downsides of far-flung supply chains that rely on lean production. Now Europe’s dependence on Russian gas is spurring discussions about expanding energy sources, which could further sideline Russia’s presence in the global economy. “In the longer term, it’s going to push Europe to diversify,” said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow working on international trade policy at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. As for Russia, the real cost “would be corrosive over time and really making it much more difficult to do business with Russian entities and deterring investment.”

What’s at stake for the global economy if Russia invades Ukraine

Europe is likely to shoulder the brunt of the fallout of a rapidly escalating crisis over Ukraine. Middle Eastern states could prove to be a close second.

That is no truer than for Turkey and Israel, whose management of the Ukraine crisis could determine their ability to protect perceived core national interests.

Indeed, for NATO-member Turkey, the stakes could not be higher. Its 2,000 kilometre-long Black Sea coastline stretching from the Bulgarian border in the West to Georgia in the East is the longest of any of the Sea's littoral states, &nbsp;including Russia and Ukraine.

The Black Sea ranks on par with Turkey’s determination to prevent at any cost a permanent autonomous, let alone independent, Kurdish presence on Syrian soil.

“Ukraine is like a dam that stops further Russian influence and pressure in the region. If Ukraine falls, it will have direct implications on Turkey," warned a Turkish official.

Turkey’s stakes are magnified by last year’s discovery of a natural gas field in its Black Sea littoral waters that, according to Energy Minister Fatih Donmez, could by 2027 provide nearly a third of Turkey’s domestic needs.

As the crisis in Ukraine escalates, Turkey could discover that protecting both of those interests may no longer allow it to perform its virtuoso balancing act. Turkey has been maintaining a fragile partnership with Russia sustained by careful management of differences while remaining a Western ally committed to the defense of the Western alliance.

Turkish economic and military support of Ukraine and Crimean Tartars and its refusal to recognize the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea fit well with Turkey’s tightrope act and was aligned with NATO policy.

Russia’s recognition this week of the breakaway Ukrainian republics of Donetsk and Luhansk and the moving of Russian troops into those regions threatens to throw Turkey off its tightrope and create a Catch-22 for Ankara.

The imposition of US and European sanctions against Russia is likely to be the straw that breaks the back of the Turkish tightrope act.

“Syria remains Turkey’s soft spot. For that matter, Russia is likely to put pressure on Turkey through Syria,” said Turkey scholar Galip Dalay. “At a broader level, Russia and Turkey have cooperated and competed with each other through the conflict spots in the Middle East and North Africa. However, Moscow has been less open to repeating this experience with Turkey in the ex-Soviet area."

Days before the recognition of the Ukrainian regions, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Michael Bogdanov fired a shot across Turkey's bow. Mr. Bogdanov declared that Syrian Kurdish participation in diplomatic efforts to negotiate a post-war settlement in Syria was necessary to prevent Kurdish secession and ensure the unification of the war-ravaged country.

Speaking to state-controlled Russian RT television, Mr. Bogdanov noted that the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) controls large areas east of the Euphrates River. The region is pockmarked by a patchwork of military forces from Turkey, Russia, the United States, Syria, the Kurds, and various militant and jihadist groups.

US cooperation with the Kurds in the fight against the Islamic State has been an irritant in relations between Ankara and Washington because of Turkish assertions that the SDC is linked to the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK).

Designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and Europe, the PKK has waged a low-intensity war in southeastern Turkey for almost four decades that has cost the lives of tens of thousands.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to fend off a potential further Turkish incursion by agreeing to joint Russian-Turkish patrols in a region where Turkey has already built a chain of outposts as a buffer with Russian and Syrian regime forces.

However, Turkey accuses Russia of failing to fulfill its pledge to disarm Kurdish fighters in a 30-kilometre area along the Syrian-Turkish border.

For its part, Israel doesn't share physical land or maritime borders with either Russia or Ukraine. Still, it is discovering that its ability to counter Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, &nbsp;militarily in Syria may depend on its approach to the Ukraine crisis.

Earlier this month, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova condemned Israeli strikes against targets in Syria as “a crude violation of Syria’s sovereignty." She warned that they "may trigger a sharp escalation of tensions.” Ms. Zakharova added that “such actions pose serious risks to international passenger flights.”

The Russian warning came weeks after Russia announced that joint Russian-Syrian air patrols had become routine. The announcement came after one of the first patrols flew along the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that divide Israel and Syria.

Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz defiantly insisted in response that “we will continue to prevent the Iranian entrenchment that is eating Syria up from the inside. This is a supreme interest for the Syrian people and the regime: to stabilize, to remove Iranian forces from their territory and allow the country to be rehabilitated.”

At the same time, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid acknowledged that " “We have a kind of border with Russia" given the Russian military presence in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad.

Mr. Lapid noted further that Israel has sizeable Russian and Ukrainian Jewish communities and that a significant number of Jews are resident in the two feuding countries.

As a result, Israel, caught in a bind similar to Turkey's, scrambled to avoid further provoking Russia’s ire. It announced that it was banning Baltic states from transferring to Ukraine weapons with Israeli components.

In contrast to Turkey that may feel it has greater maneuverability in its relations with Russia, China, and the United States, Israel feels that its options, like in the case of China, are more limited when it comes to Russia. It cannot afford to put its relations with Washington at risk.

Said Israeli Transportation Minister Merav Michaeli hours before the Ukraine crisis came to a head: “There is no question that the special relationship that Israel has with the United States, that this government is working to rehabilitate and rebuild, is not the same relationship that Israel has with Russia.”

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer)

Europe is likely to shoulder the brunt of the fallout of a rapidly escalating crisis over Ukraine. Middle Eastern states could prove to be a close second. That is no truer than for Turkey and Israel, whose management of the Ukraine crisis could determine their ability to protect perceived core national interests.

Europe is likely to shoulder the brunt of the fallout of a rapidly escalating crisis over Ukraine. Middle Eastern states could prove to be a close second. That is no truer than for Turkey and Israel, whose management of the Ukraine crisis could determine their ability to protect perceived core national interests. Indeed, for NATO-member Turkey, the stakes could not be higher. Its 2,000 kilometre-long Black Sea coastline stretching from the Bulgarian border in the West to Georgia in the East is the longest of any of the Sea's littoral states, including Russia and Ukraine. The Black Sea ranks on par with Turkey’s determination to prevent at any cost a permanent autonomous, let alone independent, Kurdish presence on Syrian soil. “Ukraine is like a dam that stops further Russian influence and pressure in the region. If Ukraine falls, it will have direct implications on Turkey," warned a Turkish official. Turkey’s stakes are magnified by last year’s discovery of a natural gas field in its Black Sea littoral waters that, according to Energy Minister Fatih Donmez, could by 2027 provide nearly a third of Turkey’s domestic needs. As the crisis in Ukraine escalates, Turkey could discover that protecting both of those interests may no longer allow it to perform its virtuoso balancing act. Turkey has been maintaining a fragile partnership with Russia sustained by careful management of differences while remaining a Western ally committed to the defense of the Western alliance. Turkish economic and military support of Ukraine and Crimean Tartars and its refusal to recognize the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea fit well with Turkey’s tightrope act and was aligned with NATO policy. Russia’s recognition this week of the breakaway Ukrainian republics of Donetsk and Luhansk and the moving of Russian troops into those regions threatens to throw Turkey off its tightrope and create a Catch-22 for Ankara. The imposition of US and European sanctions against Russia is likely to be the straw that breaks the back of the Turkish tightrope act. “Syria remains Turkey’s soft spot. For that matter, Russia is likely to put pressure on Turkey through Syria,” said Turkey scholar Galip Dalay. “At a broader level, Russia and Turkey have cooperated and competed with each other through the conflict spots in the Middle East and North Africa. However, Moscow has been less open to repeating this experience with Turkey in the ex-Soviet area." Days before the recognition of the Ukrainian regions, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Michael Bogdanov fired a shot across Turkey's bow. Mr. Bogdanov declared that Syrian Kurdish participation in diplomatic efforts to negotiate a post-war settlement in Syria was necessary to prevent Kurdish secession and ensure the unification of the war-ravaged country. Speaking to state-controlled Russian RT television, Mr. Bogdanov noted that the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) controls large areas east of the Euphrates River. The region is pockmarked by a patchwork of military forces from Turkey, Russia, the United States, Syria, the Kurds, and various militant and jihadist groups. US cooperation with the Kurds in the fight against the Islamic State has been an irritant in relations between Ankara and Washington because of Turkish assertions that the SDC is linked to the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK). Designated a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and Europe, the PKK has waged a low-intensity war in southeastern Turkey for almost four decades that has cost the lives of tens of thousands. Russian President Vladimir Putin has sought to fend off a potential further Turkish incursion by agreeing to joint Russian-Turkish patrols in a region where Turkey has already built a chain of outposts as a buffer with Russian and Syrian regime forces. However, Turkey accuses Russia of failing to fulfill its pledge to disarm Kurdish fighters in a 30-kilometre area along the Syrian-Turkish border. For its part, Israel doesn't share physical land or maritime borders with either Russia or Ukraine. Still, it is discovering that its ability to counter Iran and its Lebanese ally, Hezbollah, militarily in Syria may depend on its approach to the Ukraine crisis. Earlier this month, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova condemned Israeli strikes against targets in Syria as “a crude violation of Syria’s sovereignty." She warned that they "may trigger a sharp escalation of tensions.” Ms. Zakharova added that “such actions pose serious risks to international passenger flights.” The Russian warning came weeks after Russia announced that joint Russian-Syrian air patrols had become routine. The announcement came after one of the first patrols flew along the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights that divide Israel and Syria. Israeli Defense Minister Benny Gantz defiantly insisted in response that “we will continue to prevent the Iranian entrenchment that is eating Syria up from the inside. This is a supreme interest for the Syrian people and the regime: to stabilize, to remove Iranian forces from their territory and allow the country to be rehabilitated.” At the same time, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid acknowledged that " “We have a kind of border with Russia" given the Russian military presence in Syria in support of President Bashar al-Assad. Mr. Lapid noted further that Israel has sizeable Russian and Ukrainian Jewish communities and that a significant number of Jews are resident in the two feuding countries. As a result, Israel, caught in a bind similar to Turkey's, scrambled to avoid further provoking Russia’s ire. It announced that it was banning Baltic states from transferring to Ukraine weapons with Israeli components. In contrast to Turkey that may feel it has greater maneuverability in its relations with Russia, China, and the United States, Israel feels that its options, like in the case of China, are more limited when it comes to Russia. It cannot afford to put its relations with Washington at risk. Said Israeli Transportation Minister Merav Michaeli hours before the Ukraine crisis came to a head: “There is no question that the special relationship that Israel has with the United States, that this government is working to rehabilitate and rebuild, is not the same relationship that Israel has with Russia.” (Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer)

Russia breathes down Middle Eastern necks over Ukraine

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has demanded an immediate halt to Nord Stream 2 project amid ongoing conflict with Russia.

Zelensky said Russia must be punished for its recognition Monday of Ukraine's two separatist-held regions with "immediate sanctions" that include "the complete stop of Nord Stream 2".

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The United States and the EU already have sanctions in place on Russia's energy and defence sectors, with state-owned gas company Gazprom, its oil arm Gazpromneft and oil producers Lukoil, Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz facing various types of curbs on exports/imports and debt-raising.

Nord Stream 2, a recently completed pipeline from Russia to Germany that has yet to win regulatory approval, would also be subject to sanctions by the European Union, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said.

Zelenskiy also said he will consider breaking off relations with Russia after it recognised the independence of two self-proclaimed rebel republics of Donetsk and Lugansk that are situated in the rust belt in eastern Ukraine and escaped Kyiv's control in 2014.

Also see |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/donetsk-and-lugansk-ukraines-breakaway-republics-455307" hreflang="en">Donetsk and Lugansk: Ukraine's breakaway republics</a>

"Russia calls on other states to follow its example," Moscow's foreign ministry said in a statement. It added that Moscow's recognition of the rebels -- condemned by the West -- was "not easy, but the only possible step."&nbsp;

After chairing a security council meeting, Zelenskiy accused Russia of violating Ukraine's sovereign territory and said it could mean Moscow pulling the plug on the Minsk peace talks aimed at ending the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Zelenskiy said Ukraine wanted to solve the crisis through diplomacy but that his country was ready to dig in for the long haul.

Also see |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/how-a-german-climate-fund-set-out-to-help-russia-dodge-us-sanctions-453770">How a German 'climate' fund set out to help Russia dodge US sanctions</a>

"We are committed to the peaceful and diplomatic path, we will follow it and only it," Zelenskiy said. "But we are on our own land, we are not afraid of anything and anybody, we owe nothing to no one, and we will give nothing to no one."

He called for an emergency summit of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France while urging Ukraine's allies to take action against Russia.

With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops massed on three sides of Ukraine, the US&nbsp;has warned that Moscow has already decided to invade. Still, President Joe Biden and Putin tentatively agreed to a meeting brokered by French President Emmanuel Macron in a last-ditch effort to avoid war.

(With inputs from agencies)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has demanded an immediate halt to Nord Stream 2 project amid ongoing conflict with Russia. Zelensky said Russia must be punished for its recognition Monday of Ukraine's two separatist-held regions with "immediate sanctions" that include "the complete stop of Nord Stream 2".

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has demanded an immediate halt to Nord Stream 2 project amid ongoing conflict with Russia. Zelensky said Russia must be punished for its recognition Monday of Ukraine's two separatist-held regions with "immediate sanctions" that include "the complete stop of Nord Stream 2". The United States and the EU already have sanctions in place on Russia's energy and defence sectors, with state-owned gas company Gazprom, its oil arm Gazpromneft and oil producers Lukoil, Rosneft and Surgutneftegaz facing various types of curbs on exports/imports and debt-raising. Nord Stream 2, a recently completed pipeline from Russia to Germany that has yet to win regulatory approval, would also be subject to sanctions by the European Union, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said. Zelenskiy also said he will consider breaking off relations with Russia after it recognised the independence of two self-proclaimed rebel republics of Donetsk and Lugansk that are situated in the rust belt in eastern Ukraine and escaped Kyiv's control in 2014. Also see | Donetsk and Lugansk: Ukraine's breakaway republics "Russia calls on other states to follow its example," Moscow's foreign ministry said in a statement. It added that Moscow's recognition of the rebels -- condemned by the West -- was "not easy, but the only possible step." After chairing a security council meeting, Zelenskiy accused Russia of violating Ukraine's sovereign territory and said it could mean Moscow pulling the plug on the Minsk peace talks aimed at ending the separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine. Zelenskiy said Ukraine wanted to solve the crisis through diplomacy but that his country was ready to dig in for the long haul. Also see | How a German 'climate' fund set out to help Russia dodge US sanctions "We are committed to the peaceful and diplomatic path, we will follow it and only it," Zelenskiy said. "But we are on our own land, we are not afraid of anything and anybody, we owe nothing to no one, and we will give nothing to no one." He called for an emergency summit of the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France while urging Ukraine's allies to take action against Russia. With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops massed on three sides of Ukraine, the US has warned that Moscow has already decided to invade. Still, President Joe Biden and Putin tentatively agreed to a meeting brokered by French President Emmanuel Macron in a last-ditch effort to avoid war. (With inputs from agencies)

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy demands immediate halt to Nord Stream 2 project

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday (February 21) ordered the deployment of troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. In a televised address, Putin ordered to despatch Russian peacekeepers to Ukraine's two breakaway regions - the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday (February 21) ordered the deployment of troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. In a televised address, Putin ordered to despatch Russian peacekeepers to Ukraine's two breakaway regions - the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic. The Russia-Ukraine crisis impacted the prices of some of the commodities worldwide. The prices are expected to rise further: Here's a list: Gold Gold prices are already rising globally amid the ongoing conflict and after Putin's latest move to deploy troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the gold hit a near nine-month high on Tuesday (February 22). Spot gold XAU= was up 0.2% at $1,909.60 per ounce by 0332 GMT, after scaling its highest since June 1 at $1,913.89 per ounce earlier. US gold futures GCv1 gained 0.6% to $1,911.50. Jeffrey Halley, who is a senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "With the situation deteriorating seemingly by the day in Eastern Europe, there is very little reason to be negative on gold at the moment." Halley added, "Rising stagflationary pressures around the world are also underpinning the precious metal, a situation that will be exacerbated by massive Western sanctions on Russia if they come to play." ALSO READ | US imposes sanctions on two Russian-backed areas in eastern Ukraine Aluminium The escalating border tensions between Russia and Ukraine could result in soaring prices of Aluminium as Russia accounts for approximately 6 per cent of the global aluminium supply. The conflict could result in a potential supply shock in the aluminium market, which is already tight. In recent days, Aluminum prices have risen about 15 per cent till Feb 21. The prices are near multi-year highs and there's a possibility that it could still rise further. Christopher LaFemini, who is a Jefferies analyst quoted as saying by Oilprice.com that when the conflict ends, aluminium prices might decline but will rise again because the deficit would persist. Oil After Putin's latest announcement, oil jumped to a seven-year high. Important to note that Russia is an oil and gas powerhouse, as the country is pumping about nine million barrels of crude oil a day. Crude - already up more than 20 per cent this year on surging demand - piled higher still on Tuesday, with Brent closing in on the $100 mark for the first time since 2014. Hopes of an Iran nuclear deal, which could see Tehran resume global oil exports, were unable to temper the gains. The jump in oil is compounding worries about inflation around the world, with the Federal Reserve coming under intense pressure to tighten monetary policy to prevent prices from running out of control. ALSO READ | Vladimir Putin orders troops into eastern Ukraine: Key points from his crucial address Natural gas The ongoing conflict could result in much higher prices for natural gas as Russia is a leading producer of natural gas. As per BP data, the country pumped about 639 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2021, which was nearly 17 per cent of global production of 3.854 trillion cubic meters. West claims that Russia is using natural gas as a tool to take advantage of the crisis situation. The claims also state that Russia delays in the certification of Nord Stream 2, which is a system of offshore natural gas pipelines in Europe, running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. Copper Russia produced 920,000 tonnes of refined copper in 2021, which is about 3.5 per cent of the world's total, the USGS data tells. As per a report by Oilprice.com, UMMC and Russian Copper Company are the other two major producers. Europe and Asia are two major export markets for Russia and the ongoing conflict is likely to impact exports resulting in higher prices globally. Cobalt The Russia-Ukraine conflict could also result in rising prices of Cobalt. Russia produced 7,600 tonnes of cobalt last year, more than 4 per cent of the world total, as per the data from the US Geological Survey (USGS). ×

These commodities could become super expensive amid escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis

The Russia and Ukraine border tensions continue to escalate despite efforts to defuse it with diplomatic talks. In the latest development, the United States media reports cited intelligence inputs and stated that the Russian military has been ordered to 'attack' Ukraine.&nbsp;

The reports have also added that the military is moving forward with an intention to attack Ukraine. These reports added to the fears of Western countries that Russia will attack at "any time".&nbsp;

As per the reports, it was that intelligence that gave US President Joe Biden the confidence to say on Friday (February 18) he was "convinced" that Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to invade.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/biden-ready-to-meet-putin-until-the-moment-ukraine-invasion-begins-454912">Biden ready to meet Putin 'until the moment' Ukraine invasion begins</a>

However, there's no official statement on the reports by several media outlets such as Washington Post, CBS, the New York Times, CNN.&nbsp;

The Washington Post noted: "US intelligence that provided Biden with the confidence to make the assertion came from an order given to Russian subordinates to proceed with a full-scale attack, according to several people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter's sensitivity."&nbsp;&nbsp;

CNN said other signs that might indicate an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine "have not yet been observed" citing an anonymous source. The source also warned that orders to attack could still be withdrawn, or that the intelligence might have been planted to mislead the West.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/russia-ukraine-crisis-french-and-russian-foreign-ministers-to-speak-on-monday-454841">Russia-Ukraine crisis: French and Russian foreign ministers to speak on Monday</a>

Russia has placed more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine's borders in recent weeks, the United States and Western allies have estimated.&nbsp;

US official told reporters Friday, insisting on anonymity that "forty to fifty per cent (of those troops) are in an attack position. They have uncoiled in tactical assembly in the last 48 hours".&nbsp;

Reports have also quoted a US official, who on Sunday said that Biden's assertion that Putin has made the decision to roll Russian forces into Ukraine was based on intelligence that Russian front-line commanders have been given orders to begin final preparations for an attack.&nbsp;

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(With inputs from agencies)

The Russia and Ukraine border tensions continue to escalate despite efforts to defuse it with diplomatic talks. In the latest development, the United States media reports cited intelligence inputs and stated that the Russian military has been ordered to 'attack' Ukraine.

The Russia and Ukraine border tensions continue to escalate despite efforts to defuse it with diplomatic talks. In the latest development, the United States media reports cited intelligence inputs and stated that the Russian military has been ordered to 'attack' Ukraine. The reports have also added that the military is moving forward with an intention to attack Ukraine. These reports added to the fears of Western countries that Russia will attack at "any time". As per the reports, it was that intelligence that gave US President Joe Biden the confidence to say on Friday (February 18) he was "convinced" that Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to invade. ALSO READ | Biden ready to meet Putin 'until the moment' Ukraine invasion begins However, there's no official statement on the reports by several media outlets such as Washington Post, CBS, the New York Times, CNN. The Washington Post noted: "US intelligence that provided Biden with the confidence to make the assertion came from an order given to Russian subordinates to proceed with a full-scale attack, according to several people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter's sensitivity." CNN said other signs that might indicate an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine "have not yet been observed" citing an anonymous source. The source also warned that orders to attack could still be withdrawn, or that the intelligence might have been planted to mislead the West. ALSO READ | Russia-Ukraine crisis: French and Russian foreign ministers to speak on Monday Russia has placed more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine's borders in recent weeks, the United States and Western allies have estimated. US official told reporters Friday, insisting on anonymity that "forty to fifty per cent (of those troops) are in an attack position. They have uncoiled in tactical assembly in the last 48 hours". Reports have also quoted a US official, who on Sunday said that Biden's assertion that Putin has made the decision to roll Russian forces into Ukraine was based on intelligence that Russian front-line commanders have been given orders to begin final preparations for an attack. × (With inputs from agencies)

Did Russia give orders to 'attack' Ukraine? US media cites intel inputs that were apparently known to Biden

Amid rising Russia and Ukraine tensions, a&nbsp;blast was heard early on Monday in the centre of the city of&nbsp;Donetsk, which is held by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, Reuters reported citing a witness.&nbsp;

So far, the origin of the blast was unclear.

As per reports, people evacuated from the Moscow-backed breakaway region of Donetsk wait for trains in the southwestern Russian town of Taganrog, to move deeper into the country.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/did-russia-give-orders-to-attack-ukraine-us-media-cites-intel-inputs-that-were-apparently-known-to-biden-454927">Did Russia give orders to 'attack' Ukraine? US media cites intel inputs that were apparently known to Biden</a>

It is important to note that the Moscow-backed separatists have accused Ukraine of planning an offensive into their enclave, and ordered a general mobilisation.&nbsp;

US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit over Ukraine. The news about the crucial summit was revealed by French President Emmanuel Macron, who held a telephonic conversation with the Russian leader on Sunday (February 20).&nbsp;

Meanwhile, Kremlin on Monday (February 21) said that it is "premature" to organise the Biden-Putin summit over Ukraine.

"It's premature to talk about any specific plans for organising any kind of summits," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, adding that no "concrete plans" had been put in place for a meeting.&nbsp;

Russia has placed more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine's borders in recent weeks, the United States and Western allies have estimated.&nbsp;

US official told reporters Friday, insisting on anonymity that "forty to fifty per cent (of those troops) are in an attack position. They have uncoiled in tactical assembly in the last 48 hours".&nbsp;

Reports have also quoted a US official, who on Sunday said that Biden's assertion that Putin has made the decision to roll Russian forces into Ukraine was based on intelligence that Russian front-line commanders have been given orders to begin final preparations for an attack.&nbsp;

WATCH |&nbsp;Explosions heard in Ukraine's Donetsk, OSCE calls for security meet to discuss de-escalation

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&nbsp;

Amid rising Russia and Ukraine tensions, a blast was heard early on Monday in the centre of the city of Donetsk, which is held by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, Reuters reported citing a witness.

Amid rising Russia and Ukraine tensions, a blast was heard early on Monday in the centre of the city of Donetsk, which is held by Russian-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine, Reuters reported citing a witness. So far, the origin of the blast was unclear. As per reports, people evacuated from the Moscow-backed breakaway region of Donetsk wait for trains in the southwestern Russian town of Taganrog, to move deeper into the country. ALSO READ | Did Russia give orders to 'attack' Ukraine? US media cites intel inputs that were apparently known to Biden It is important to note that the Moscow-backed separatists have accused Ukraine of planning an offensive into their enclave, and ordered a general mobilisation. US President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed in principle to a summit over Ukraine. The news about the crucial summit was revealed by French President Emmanuel Macron, who held a telephonic conversation with the Russian leader on Sunday (February 20). Meanwhile, Kremlin on Monday (February 21) said that it is "premature" to organise the Biden-Putin summit over Ukraine. "It's premature to talk about any specific plans for organising any kind of summits," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, adding that no "concrete plans" had been put in place for a meeting. Russia has placed more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine's borders in recent weeks, the United States and Western allies have estimated. US official told reporters Friday, insisting on anonymity that "forty to fifty per cent (of those troops) are in an attack position. They have uncoiled in tactical assembly in the last 48 hours". Reports have also quoted a US official, who on Sunday said that Biden's assertion that Putin has made the decision to roll Russian forces into Ukraine was based on intelligence that Russian front-line commanders have been given orders to begin final preparations for an attack. WATCH | Explosions heard in Ukraine's Donetsk, OSCE calls for security meet to discuss de-escalation ×

Ukraine crisis: Explosion reportedly hits Donetsk airport area; Kremlin says Biden-Putin summit 'premature'

When Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, called on Saturday for talks to resolve the crisis in Europe, he said Ukraine’s sovereignty should be “respected and safeguarded” — but also sided with Russia in saying that NATO enlargement was destabilizing the continent.

“If NATO keeps expanding eastward, is it conducive to maintaining peace and stability in Europe?” he said by video at the Munich Security Conference in Germany, which Vice President Kamala Harris was attending in person to rally countries against Russia.

It was the latest instance of what Western officials say is China taking a bold new swing at the United States and its allies by wading into European security issues to explicitly back Russia, which has amassed more than 150,000 troops around Ukraine for a possible invasion — despite the fact Ukraine is not joining NATO anytime soon.

Current and former U.S. and European officials say they are alarmed over what is effectively a nonaggression pact between China and Russia that could amount to a realignment of the world order. Portending a new type of Cold War, Biden administration officials say the United States will work to create and bolster its own coalitions of democratic nations — including new Europe and Asia-Pacific strategic groups — and help countries develop advanced military capabilities.

John F. Kirby, the chief Pentagon spokesman, said last week that the U.S. government was watching the “burgeoning relationship” between China and Russia. He said that a joint statement issued by the two countries in early February when Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China met in Beijing showed that China was standing behind Putin’s military buildup around Ukraine.

“Their tacit support, if you will, for Russia is deeply alarming, and, frankly, even more destabilizing to the security situation in Europe,” Kirby said.

In recent weeks, the two nations negotiated a 30-year contract for Russia to supply gas to China through a new pipeline. They blocked a demand from Washington that the United Nations impose additional sanctions on North Korea for new missile tests, even though the two nations had agreed to similar sanctions before. And Russia moved large numbers of troops from Siberia to its west, a sign that Moscow, in preparing for a potential invasion of Ukraine, trusts China along their shared border in the east.

Their long courtship reached a peak with the 5,000-word joint statement that said their partnership had “no limits,” which some Biden administration officials see as a turning point in China-Russia relations and a brazen challenge to American and European power. The statement was the first in which China explicitly joined Russia in opposing any further expansion of NATO, and the two countries denounced Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy and its new security partnership, AUKUS, which includes Britain and Australia. The nations also described Taiwan as “an inalienable part of China.”

China and Russia declared that they would work with other countries to “promote genuine democracy” and counter American-led ideology and institutions — building a new world order in which autocracies are unchallenged, U.S. and European officials say.

“They seek a new era, as they say, to replace the existing international order,” Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said in Munich on Saturday. “They prefer the rule of the strongest to the rule of law, intimidation instead of self-determination, coercion instead of cooperation.”

The strengthening China-Russia ties could herald a reconfiguring of the triangle of power that defined the Cold War and that President Richard M. Nixon exploited 50 years ago on Monday when he made a historic visit to Beijing to normalize diplomatic relations. That helped the United States and China counterbalance the Soviet Union. Ties between Beijing and Moscow had been unraveling for years over issues of ideology and foreign policy.

The opposite is happening now.

“It’s certainly concerning, and it is not a positive development from the standpoint of U.S. national security or U.S. national interests,” said Susan Shirk, the chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego, and a former State Department official. “They have a kind of common perspective on the U.S. right now, and there is this affinity between the leaders.”

Shirk said President Joe Biden nonetheless should try engaging in diplomacy with Xi to coax him to act with the United States on the Russia-created Ukraine crisis. “This seems like Diplomacy 101 given at least the history of this triangular relationship,” she added.

China and Russia are not united by ideology, and they are in a marriage of convenience that Russia needs more. While Xi appreciates Putin’s defiance of the United States, he does not want the economic uncertainty that a European war would bring. China also traditionally insists on respecting every nation’s sovereignty, as Wang made clear on Saturday.

There are limits to what China would do to help Putin if he invades Ukraine. After Washington imposes sanctions on Russia, Chinese companies could buy more oil and gas from Russia and help fill some technology gaps, but the major Chinese state-owned banks would probably refrain from overt violations of the sanctions for fear of being shut out of the global financial system.

Xi and Putin have met 38 times as national leaders. They share a drive to restore their nations to a former glory that they see as having been stripped from their homelands by Western European powers, the United States and, in China’s case, Japan. Both are obsessed with the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991: Putin seeks to forcefully wind back the clock to a pre-collapse era, while Xi aims to prevent China from meeting the same fate as the Soviet empire. They accuse Washington of fomenting mass protests and democracy movements around the world to overthrow other governments.

An intensifying conflict with China and Russia would have a different shape than the Cold War. China’s trade economy is deeply integrated with those of other nations, including the United States, and Russia is an important energy exporter to Europe. For practical reasons, the three governments would be unable to completely block commercial exchanges with each other or form distinct economic blocs with partner countries, like in the days of the Iron Curtain.

Nevertheless, foreign leaders and Democratic and Republican foreign policy practitioners have expressed concern in recent days.

In a Wall Street Journal opinion column titled “Entente Multiplies the Threat From Russia and China,” John Bolton, the hawkish national security adviser under President Donald Trump, argued that the partnership “will last” because the two countries’ interests “are mutually complementary for the foreseeable future.” Stephen Hadley, the national security adviser under President George W. Bush, called the joint statement “a manifesto for their global leadership,” while Kevin Rudd, the former prime minister of Australia, said China’s explicitly pro-Russia position on European security was “new and significant and quite a radical departure from the past.”

Scott Morrison, the current prime minister of Australia, denounced China last week for remaining “chillingly silent” on Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine and noted that the two countries were “banding together.”

A senior U.S. official said the Biden administration would counter the two powers in part by trying to create “greater connectivity” among democratic partners and allies of the United States, one that goes beyond regional coalitions. Such an approach has been a central thrust for Biden, who during the 2020 campaign said Russia was the greatest foreign policy challenge for the United States in the medium term, and China the biggest in the long term.

Biden pushed NATO to issue a summit communiqué last June that laid out the challenges that China poses to the alliance, a position that Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary-general of NATO, has reiterated. The president held a virtual “Summit for Democracy” in December in which he spoke by video with officials from more than 100 countries. And this month, the White House released an Indo-Pacific strategy paper that said the United States would promote democratic institutions among partner nations and help them “deploy advanced war-fighting capabilities,” such as helping Australia build nuclear-powered submarines.

Xi and Putin have denounced the initiatives. They have long seen those two main strategic prongs of Washington — promotion of democracy abroad and the deployment or sharing of troops and military equipment — as enormous threats to their nations.

“It is hoped that the U.S. side will take off their tinted glasses, discard the Cold War mindset, view China-Russia relations and cooperation objectively, recognize the prevailing trend of the times and do more things that are beneficial to world peace and development,” Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said when asked to comment for this article.

Alexander Gabuev, the chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said that the joint statement from China and Russia was a notable public milestone, but that the most important cooperation was occurring beneath the surface. In particular, he said, weapons sales from Russia to the Chinese military should be of great concern to American policymakers.

Gabuev also noted that because the two nations settled territorial disputes along their 2,700-mile border in 2008 and have increased their military cooperation, Moscow felt confident enough to move troops from its east to near Ukraine to prepare for a potential invasion — drawing down Russian troops on the borders with China and Mongolia to their lowest level since 1922.

However, the two nations also compete and disagree on major issues. China has a growing footprint in Central Asia, whose former Soviet republics are viewed by Moscow as within its sphere of influence. China insists it is now a power in the Arctic, a region Putin has wanted to dominate. And the country has important trade relations with nations across the former Eastern European bloc.

China is Ukraine’s largest trade partner, and Beijing has acknowledged the nation’s sovereignty for decades. It has never recognized Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. Notably, the joint statement made no explicit mention of Ukraine.

“When I was in the government, we would take a very hard look at China’s calculations and find those things that were not compatible with what Putin was trying to do and work on that basis,” said Daniel Russel, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs. “The fact is that it’s so late in the game, and the three sides have moved so far in this unequal triangle, that it’s really not going to be easy to try to undo that.”

When Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, called on Saturday for talks to resolve the crisis in Europe, he said Ukraine’s sovereignty should be “respected and safeguarded” — but also sided with Russia in saying that NATO enlargement was destabilizing the continent.

When Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, called on Saturday for talks to resolve the crisis in Europe, he said Ukraine’s sovereignty should be “respected and safeguarded” — but also sided with Russia in saying that NATO enlargement was destabilizing the continent. “If NATO keeps expanding eastward, is it conducive to maintaining peace and stability in Europe?” he said by video at the Munich Security Conference in Germany, which Vice President Kamala Harris was attending in person to rally countries against Russia. It was the latest instance of what Western officials say is China taking a bold new swing at the United States and its allies by wading into European security issues to explicitly back Russia, which has amassed more than 150,000 troops around Ukraine for a possible invasion — despite the fact Ukraine is not joining NATO anytime soon. Current and former U.S. and European officials say they are alarmed over what is effectively a nonaggression pact between China and Russia that could amount to a realignment of the world order. Portending a new type of Cold War, Biden administration officials say the United States will work to create and bolster its own coalitions of democratic nations — including new Europe and Asia-Pacific strategic groups — and help countries develop advanced military capabilities. John F. Kirby, the chief Pentagon spokesman, said last week that the U.S. government was watching the “burgeoning relationship” between China and Russia. He said that a joint statement issued by the two countries in early February when Presidents Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China met in Beijing showed that China was standing behind Putin’s military buildup around Ukraine. “Their tacit support, if you will, for Russia is deeply alarming, and, frankly, even more destabilizing to the security situation in Europe,” Kirby said. In recent weeks, the two nations negotiated a 30-year contract for Russia to supply gas to China through a new pipeline. They blocked a demand from Washington that the United Nations impose additional sanctions on North Korea for new missile tests, even though the two nations had agreed to similar sanctions before. And Russia moved large numbers of troops from Siberia to its west, a sign that Moscow, in preparing for a potential invasion of Ukraine, trusts China along their shared border in the east. Their long courtship reached a peak with the 5,000-word joint statement that said their partnership had “no limits,” which some Biden administration officials see as a turning point in China-Russia relations and a brazen challenge to American and European power. The statement was the first in which China explicitly joined Russia in opposing any further expansion of NATO, and the two countries denounced Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy and its new security partnership, AUKUS, which includes Britain and Australia. The nations also described Taiwan as “an inalienable part of China.” China and Russia declared that they would work with other countries to “promote genuine democracy” and counter American-led ideology and institutions — building a new world order in which autocracies are unchallenged, U.S. and European officials say. “They seek a new era, as they say, to replace the existing international order,” Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission, said in Munich on Saturday. “They prefer the rule of the strongest to the rule of law, intimidation instead of self-determination, coercion instead of cooperation.” The strengthening China-Russia ties could herald a reconfiguring of the triangle of power that defined the Cold War and that President Richard M. Nixon exploited 50 years ago on Monday when he made a historic visit to Beijing to normalize diplomatic relations. That helped the United States and China counterbalance the Soviet Union. Ties between Beijing and Moscow had been unraveling for years over issues of ideology and foreign policy. The opposite is happening now. “It’s certainly concerning, and it is not a positive development from the standpoint of U.S. national security or U.S. national interests,” said Susan Shirk, the chair of the 21st Century China Center at the University of California, San Diego, and a former State Department official. “They have a kind of common perspective on the U.S. right now, and there is this affinity between the leaders.” Shirk said President Joe Biden nonetheless should try engaging in diplomacy with Xi to coax him to act with the United States on the Russia-created Ukraine crisis. “This seems like Diplomacy 101 given at least the history of this triangular relationship,” she added. China and Russia are not united by ideology, and they are in a marriage of convenience that Russia needs more. While Xi appreciates Putin’s defiance of the United States, he does not want the economic uncertainty that a European war would bring. China also traditionally insists on respecting every nation’s sovereignty, as Wang made clear on Saturday. There are limits to what China would do to help Putin if he invades Ukraine. After Washington imposes sanctions on Russia, Chinese companies could buy more oil and gas from Russia and help fill some technology gaps, but the major Chinese state-owned banks would probably refrain from overt violations of the sanctions for fear of being shut out of the global financial system. Xi and Putin have met 38 times as national leaders. They share a drive to restore their nations to a former glory that they see as having been stripped from their homelands by Western European powers, the United States and, in China’s case, Japan. Both are obsessed with the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991: Putin seeks to forcefully wind back the clock to a pre-collapse era, while Xi aims to prevent China from meeting the same fate as the Soviet empire. They accuse Washington of fomenting mass protests and democracy movements around the world to overthrow other governments. An intensifying conflict with China and Russia would have a different shape than the Cold War. China’s trade economy is deeply integrated with those of other nations, including the United States, and Russia is an important energy exporter to Europe. For practical reasons, the three governments would be unable to completely block commercial exchanges with each other or form distinct economic blocs with partner countries, like in the days of the Iron Curtain. Nevertheless, foreign leaders and Democratic and Republican foreign policy practitioners have expressed concern in recent days. In a Wall Street Journal opinion column titled “Entente Multiplies the Threat From Russia and China,” John Bolton, the hawkish national security adviser under President Donald Trump, argued that the partnership “will last” because the two countries’ interests “are mutually complementary for the foreseeable future.” Stephen Hadley, the national security adviser under President George W. Bush, called the joint statement “a manifesto for their global leadership,” while Kevin Rudd, the former prime minister of Australia, said China’s explicitly pro-Russia position on European security was “new and significant and quite a radical departure from the past.” Scott Morrison, the current prime minister of Australia, denounced China last week for remaining “chillingly silent” on Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine and noted that the two countries were “banding together.” A senior U.S. official said the Biden administration would counter the two powers in part by trying to create “greater connectivity” among democratic partners and allies of the United States, one that goes beyond regional coalitions. Such an approach has been a central thrust for Biden, who during the 2020 campaign said Russia was the greatest foreign policy challenge for the United States in the medium term, and China the biggest in the long term. Biden pushed NATO to issue a summit communiqué last June that laid out the challenges that China poses to the alliance, a position that Jens Stoltenberg, the secretary-general of NATO, has reiterated. The president held a virtual “Summit for Democracy” in December in which he spoke by video with officials from more than 100 countries. And this month, the White House released an Indo-Pacific strategy paper that said the United States would promote democratic institutions among partner nations and help them “deploy advanced war-fighting capabilities,” such as helping Australia build nuclear-powered submarines. Xi and Putin have denounced the initiatives. They have long seen those two main strategic prongs of Washington — promotion of democracy abroad and the deployment or sharing of troops and military equipment — as enormous threats to their nations. “It is hoped that the U.S. side will take off their tinted glasses, discard the Cold War mindset, view China-Russia relations and cooperation objectively, recognize the prevailing trend of the times and do more things that are beneficial to world peace and development,” Liu Pengyu, a spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said when asked to comment for this article. Alexander Gabuev, the chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center, said that the joint statement from China and Russia was a notable public milestone, but that the most important cooperation was occurring beneath the surface. In particular, he said, weapons sales from Russia to the Chinese military should be of great concern to American policymakers. Gabuev also noted that because the two nations settled territorial disputes along their 2,700-mile border in 2008 and have increased their military cooperation, Moscow felt confident enough to move troops from its east to near Ukraine to prepare for a potential invasion — drawing down Russian troops on the borders with China and Mongolia to their lowest level since 1922. However, the two nations also compete and disagree on major issues. China has a growing footprint in Central Asia, whose former Soviet republics are viewed by Moscow as within its sphere of influence. China insists it is now a power in the Arctic, a region Putin has wanted to dominate. And the country has important trade relations with nations across the former Eastern European bloc. China is Ukraine’s largest trade partner, and Beijing has acknowledged the nation’s sovereignty for decades. It has never recognized Russia’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula. Notably, the joint statement made no explicit mention of Ukraine. “When I was in the government, we would take a very hard look at China’s calculations and find those things that were not compatible with what Putin was trying to do and work on that basis,” said Daniel Russel, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs. “The fact is that it’s so late in the game, and the three sides have moved so far in this unequal triangle, that it’s really not going to be easy to try to undo that.”

Bond between China and Russia alarms US and Europe amid Ukraine crisis

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and US President Joe Biden will consult on the Ukraine crisis "within hours", Macron's office said on Sunday.

Following his 105-minute call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Macron may also exchange with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and "other close partners", the French presidency said.

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German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that a Russian attack on Ukraine would be a "serious mistake" with high "political, economic and geostrategic costs".

There was no justification for some 100,000 soldiers massing on Ukraine's borders, he told the Munich Security Conference.

Russia has amassed over 100,000 soldiers at the border to Ukraine, sparking fear in Western countries and Ukraine of a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces.

"Russia has made the issue of Ukraine's possible NATO membership a casus belli, which is a paradox because here is no decision on this on the agenda," he said.

The West was nonetheless ready to negotiate over Russia's security demands "without being naive".

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"We will differentiate clearly between untenable demands and legitimate security interests," he added. Scholz said Germany will continue being one of the biggest financial supporters of Ukraine.

Russia extended military drills near Ukraine’s northern borders Sunday amid increased fears that two days of sustained shelling along the contact line between soldiers and Russa-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine could spark an invasion.

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The exercises were originally set to end Sunday and brought a sizable contingent of Russian forces to Belarus. The presence of the Russian troops raised concern that they could be used to sweep down on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, a city of about 3 million people less than a three-hour drive away.

In new signs of fears of imminent war, Germany and Austria told their citizens to leave Ukraine, and NATO’s liaison office in Kyiv pulled staff to Brussels and to the western Ukraine city of Lviv.

“When tension is escalated to the maximum, as it is now, for example, on the line of contact, then any spark, any unplanned incident or any minor planned provocation can lead to irreparable consequences,” Putin’ spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview that aired Sunday on Russian state television.

(With inputs from agencies)

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and US President Joe Biden will consult on the Ukraine crisis "within hours", Macron's office said on Sunday.

French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, and US President Joe Biden will consult on the Ukraine crisis "within hours", Macron's office said on Sunday. Following his 105-minute call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Macron may also exchange with British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, and "other close partners", the French presidency said. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said that a Russian attack on Ukraine would be a "serious mistake" with high "political, economic and geostrategic costs". There was no justification for some 100,000 soldiers massing on Ukraine's borders, he told the Munich Security Conference. Russia has amassed over 100,000 soldiers at the border to Ukraine, sparking fear in Western countries and Ukraine of a potential invasion of Ukraine by Russian forces. "Russia has made the issue of Ukraine's possible NATO membership a casus belli, which is a paradox because here is no decision on this on the agenda," he said. The West was nonetheless ready to negotiate over Russia's security demands "without being naive". Also see | Strike force: Russia's Tornado-S rocket system can strike multiple targets "We will differentiate clearly between untenable demands and legitimate security interests," he added. Scholz said Germany will continue being one of the biggest financial supporters of Ukraine. Russia extended military drills near Ukraine’s northern borders Sunday amid increased fears that two days of sustained shelling along the contact line between soldiers and Russa-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine could spark an invasion. Also see | Russia's next wonder weapon: Kedr intercontinental ballistic missile The exercises were originally set to end Sunday and brought a sizable contingent of Russian forces to Belarus. The presence of the Russian troops raised concern that they could be used to sweep down on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, a city of about 3 million people less than a three-hour drive away. In new signs of fears of imminent war, Germany and Austria told their citizens to leave Ukraine, and NATO’s liaison office in Kyiv pulled staff to Brussels and to the western Ukraine city of Lviv. “When tension is escalated to the maximum, as it is now, for example, on the line of contact, then any spark, any unplanned incident or any minor planned provocation can lead to irreparable consequences,” Putin’ spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in an interview that aired Sunday on Russian state television. (With inputs from agencies)

France says Macron, Biden, Scholz to consult on Ukraine crisis

Amid escalating tensions and the war-like situation in eastern Europe,&nbsp;French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov would meet on Monday, news agency AFP reported.&nbsp;

French President Emmanuel Macron dialled Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Sunday (February 20) about the situation in Ukraine.&nbsp;

Macron and Putin agreed to work for a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, Macron's office said, adding the leaders also agreed on "the need to favour a diplomatic solution to the ongoing crisis and to do everything to achieve one".&nbsp;

The office of the French President also stated that Putin and Macron would work "intensely" to allow the Trilateral Contact Group, which includes Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE, to meet "in the next few hours".&nbsp;

The aim of the meeting is said to be getting all interested parties to commit to a ceasefire at the contact line" in eastern Ukraine, where the government troops and pro-Russian separatists are facing each other.&nbsp;

<meta name="uuid" content="uuidMShm6xpBJH9L" /><meta charset="utf-8" />

Both the leaders also agreed that talks between Russia, Ukraine,&nbsp;France&nbsp;and Germany should resume implementing the so-called Minsk protocol which in 2014 had already called for a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine.&nbsp;

Both also agreed to work towards "a high-level meeting with the aim of defining a new peace and security order in Europe", Macron's office said.&nbsp;

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On the other hand, stated that both the leaders had an&nbsp;in-depth discussion of&nbsp;the&nbsp;developments around Ukraine as&nbsp;well as&nbsp;developments regarding "long-term legal security guarantees for&nbsp;the&nbsp;Russian Federation".&nbsp;

A Kremlin statement noted that serious concerns were expressed due to&nbsp;the&nbsp;quickly deteriorating situation along the&nbsp;contact line in&nbsp;Donbass. Putin noted that "provocations from Ukrainian militants were the&nbsp;reason for&nbsp;the&nbsp;escalation".&nbsp;

Ahead of the conversation, the French President's office said that the call represented "the final possible and necessary efforts to avoid a major conflict in Ukraine."&nbsp;

This was&nbsp;the fifth telephonic&nbsp;conversation between Putin with his French counterpart since the beginning of this year. Earlier this month on February 7, both the leaders met in person when Macron visited Russia.&nbsp;

The latest call lasted 105 minutes and is termed as the last-ditch effort to avert a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. Macron has been vouching for diplomatic ways of solving the highly sensitive border crisis.&nbsp;

IN PICS |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/satellite-pictures-show-russian-helicopters-still-parked-in-crimea-454505">Satellite pictures show Russian helicopters still parked in Crimea</a>

Although, Macron has previously reiterated his determination to preserve Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty.&nbsp;

The call came a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Macron that he would not respond to what he called Russia's "provocations", according to the Elysee. He said he remained open to "dialogue" with Moscow.&nbsp;

But in a speech to the Munich Security Conference, he also called on Western governments to stop what he said was "a policy of appeasement" towards Putin.&nbsp;

After the conversation with Putin on Sunday, Macron went on to talk with Zelensky on the telephone, the French presidency said.&nbsp;

Meanwhile,&nbsp;Belarus on Sunday (February 20) said that joint exercises involving&nbsp;Russia&nbsp;and Belarus forces were being extended due to tension over Ukraine, despite promises from Moscow that the drills would end this weekend.&nbsp;

The Belarusian defence minister Victor Khrenin said in a statement, "The presidents of Belarus and Russia decided to continue inspections of the readiness of Union State forces."&nbsp;

WATCH |&nbsp;Russia maintains 'no plans to invade' as tensions mount over Ukraine crisis

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Amid escalating tensions and the war-like situation in eastern Europe, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov would meet on Monday, news agency AFP reported.

Amid escalating tensions and the war-like situation in eastern Europe, French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov would meet on Monday, news agency AFP reported. French President Emmanuel Macron dialled Russian leader Vladimir Putin on Sunday (February 20) about the situation in Ukraine. Macron and Putin agreed to work for a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine, Macron's office said, adding the leaders also agreed on "the need to favour a diplomatic solution to the ongoing crisis and to do everything to achieve one". The office of the French President also stated that Putin and Macron would work "intensely" to allow the Trilateral Contact Group, which includes Ukraine, Russia and the OSCE, to meet "in the next few hours". The aim of the meeting is said to be getting all interested parties to commit to a ceasefire at the contact line" in eastern Ukraine, where the government troops and pro-Russian separatists are facing each other. Both the leaders also agreed that talks between Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany should resume implementing the so-called Minsk protocol which in 2014 had already called for a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. Both also agreed to work towards "a high-level meeting with the aim of defining a new peace and security order in Europe", Macron's office said. ALSO READ | Ukraine crisis: Belarus says Russian forces to remain for more drills On the other hand, stated that both the leaders had an in-depth discussion of the developments around Ukraine as well as developments regarding "long-term legal security guarantees for the Russian Federation". A Kremlin statement noted that serious concerns were expressed due to the quickly deteriorating situation along the contact line in Donbass. Putin noted that "provocations from Ukrainian militants were the reason for the escalation". Ahead of the conversation, the French President's office said that the call represented "the final possible and necessary efforts to avoid a major conflict in Ukraine." This was the fifth telephonic conversation between Putin with his French counterpart since the beginning of this year. Earlier this month on February 7, both the leaders met in person when Macron visited Russia. The latest call lasted 105 minutes and is termed as the last-ditch effort to avert a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine. Macron has been vouching for diplomatic ways of solving the highly sensitive border crisis. IN PICS | Satellite pictures show Russian helicopters still parked in Crimea Although, Macron has previously reiterated his determination to preserve Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty. The call came a day after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Macron that he would not respond to what he called Russia's "provocations", according to the Elysee. He said he remained open to "dialogue" with Moscow. But in a speech to the Munich Security Conference, he also called on Western governments to stop what he said was "a policy of appeasement" towards Putin. After the conversation with Putin on Sunday, Macron went on to talk with Zelensky on the telephone, the French presidency said. Meanwhile, Belarus on Sunday (February 20) said that joint exercises involving Russia and Belarus forces were being extended due to tension over Ukraine, despite promises from Moscow that the drills would end this weekend. The Belarusian defence minister Victor Khrenin said in a statement, "The presidents of Belarus and Russia decided to continue inspections of the readiness of Union State forces." WATCH | Russia maintains 'no plans to invade' as tensions mount over Ukraine crisis ×

Russia-Ukraine crisis: French and Russian foreign ministers to speak on Monday

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that all indications point towards Russia being ''on the brink'' of invading Ukraine.

Speaking on broadcaster CNN'S State of the Union show, Blinken, however, added that the United States was committed until the last minute to using every opportunity to see if diplomacy can dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from going ahead with an invasion

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"Everything we are seeing suggests that this is dead serious, that we are on the brink of an invasion. We will do everything we can to try to prevent it before it happens," Blinken said, adding that the West was equally prepared if Moscow invades.

"Until the tanks are actually rolling, and the planes are flying, we will use every opportunity and every minute we have to see if diplomacy can still dissuade President (Vladimir) Putin from carrying this forward," he said.

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He told CBS's "Face the Nation" Biden has made "very clear that he's prepared to meet President Putin at any time, in any format, if that can help prevent a war."

Russia extended military drills near Ukraine’s northern borders Sunday amid increased fears that two days of sustained shelling along the contact line between soldiers and Russa-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine could spark an invasion.

The exercises were originally set to end Sunday and brought a sizable contingent of Russian forces to Belarus. The presence of the Russian troops raised concern that they could be used to sweep down on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, a city of about 3 million people less than a three-hour drive away.

Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Kyiv for a military escalation in east Ukraine in a call with French leader Emmanuel Macron, but said diplomatic efforts to find a resolution needed to intensify.

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/russia-planning-biggest-war-since-1945-says-boris-johnson-454778">Russia planning biggest war since 1945, says Boris Johnson</a>

Putin "noted that the cause of the escalation is provocations carried out by the Ukrainian security forces," according to a Kremlin readout of the call, which added however that the two leaders "believe it is important to intensify efforts to find solutions through diplomatic means".

Putin also repeated a call for "the United States and NATO to take Russian demands for security guarantees seriously".

Meanwhile, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday called for an immediate ceasefire in the eastern part of the country, where clashes between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces intensified in recent days.

He also said Ukraine supports peace talks within the Trilateral Contact Group, where Ukraine participates along with Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE).

(With inputs from agencies)

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that all indications point towards Russia being ''on the brink'' of invading Ukraine. Speaking on broadcaster CNN'S State of the Union show, Blinken, however, added that the United States was committed until the last minute to using every opportunity to see if diplomacy can dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from going ahead with an invasion "Everything we are seeing suggests that this is dead serious, that we are on the brink of an invasion.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has said that all indications point towards Russia being ''on the brink'' of invading Ukraine. Speaking on broadcaster CNN'S State of the Union show, Blinken, however, added that the United States was committed until the last minute to using every opportunity to see if diplomacy can dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from going ahead with an invasion "Everything we are seeing suggests that this is dead serious, that we are on the brink of an invasion. We will do everything we can to try to prevent it before it happens," Blinken said, adding that the West was equally prepared if Moscow invades. "Until the tanks are actually rolling, and the planes are flying, we will use every opportunity and every minute we have to see if diplomacy can still dissuade President (Vladimir) Putin from carrying this forward," he said. Also read | Ukraine crisis: Belarus says Russian forces to remain for more drills He told CBS's "Face the Nation" Biden has made "very clear that he's prepared to meet President Putin at any time, in any format, if that can help prevent a war." Russia extended military drills near Ukraine’s northern borders Sunday amid increased fears that two days of sustained shelling along the contact line between soldiers and Russa-backed separatists in eastern Ukraine could spark an invasion. The exercises were originally set to end Sunday and brought a sizable contingent of Russian forces to Belarus. The presence of the Russian troops raised concern that they could be used to sweep down on the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv, a city of about 3 million people less than a three-hour drive away. Russian President Vladimir Putin blamed Kyiv for a military escalation in east Ukraine in a call with French leader Emmanuel Macron, but said diplomatic efforts to find a resolution needed to intensify. Also read | Russia planning biggest war since 1945, says Boris Johnson Putin "noted that the cause of the escalation is provocations carried out by the Ukrainian security forces," according to a Kremlin readout of the call, which added however that the two leaders "believe it is important to intensify efforts to find solutions through diplomatic means". Putin also repeated a call for "the United States and NATO to take Russian demands for security guarantees seriously". Meanwhile, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday called for an immediate ceasefire in the eastern part of the country, where clashes between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces intensified in recent days. He also said Ukraine supports peace talks within the Trilateral Contact Group, where Ukraine participates along with Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE). (With inputs from agencies)

All indications Russia 'on brink' of invading Ukraine, says Blinken

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said everything that`s happening on the ground in Ukraine, including the announcement of an extension of military exercises by Russia and Belarus, suggest the world is on the brink of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. 
 
Speaking on broadcaster CNN's&nbsp;State of the Union show, Blinken, however, added that the United States was committed until the last minute to using every opportunity to see if diplomacy can dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from going ahead with an invasion.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said everything that`s happening on the ground in Ukraine, including the announcement of an extension of military exercises by Russia and Belarus, suggest the world is on the brink of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said everything that`s happening on the ground in Ukraine, including the announcement of an extension of military exercises by Russia and Belarus, suggest the world is on the brink of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Speaking on broadcaster CNN's State of the Union show, Blinken, however, added that the United States was committed until the last minute to using every opportunity to see if diplomacy can dissuade Russian President Vladimir Putin from going ahead with an invasion.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken says all signs suggest Russia on the brink of invading Ukraine

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday called for an immediate ceasefire in the eastern part of the country, where clashes between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces intensified in recent days. 
 
He also said Ukraine supports peace talks within the Trilateral Contact Group, where Ukraine participates along with Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE). 
 
"We stand for intensifying the peace process. We support the immediate convening of the TCG and the immediate introduction of a regime of silence," Zelenskiy said on Twitter.

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Continuing yesterday's conversation, informed <a href="https://twitter.com/EmmanuelMacron?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@EmmanuelMacron</a> about the current security situation and new provocative shelling. We stand for intensifying the peace process. We support the immediate convening of the TCG and the immediate introduction of a regime of silence.
— Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) <a href="https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1495388282150080518?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 20, 2022</a></blockquote>
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Watch | Gravitas Plus | Explained: The Russia-Ukraine crisis

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Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday called for an immediate ceasefire in the eastern part of the country, where clashes between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces intensified in recent days.

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Sunday called for an immediate ceasefire in the eastern part of the country, where clashes between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces intensified in recent days. He also said Ukraine supports peace talks within the Trilateral Contact Group, where Ukraine participates along with Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-Operation in Europe (OSCE). "We stand for intensifying the peace process. We support the immediate convening of the TCG and the immediate introduction of a regime of silence," Zelenskiy said on Twitter. Continuing yesterday's conversation, informed @EmmanuelMacron about the current security situation and new provocative shelling. We stand for intensifying the peace process. We support the immediate convening of the TCG and the immediate introduction of a regime of silence. — Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) February 20, 2022 × Watch | Gravitas Plus | Explained: The Russia-Ukraine crisis

Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelenskiy calls for immediate ceasefire

Belarus' Defence Ministry has said Russia and Belarus would extend joint military exercises that had been due to end on Sunday.

"The presidents of Belarus and Russia decided to continue inspections of the readiness of Union State forces," the Belarusian defence minister Victor Khrenin said in a statement.

He said the decision was taken due to increased military activity along the Belarusian and Russian borders and because of an "escalation" in east Ukraine.

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The next stage would address defence areas that had not been fully covered by the earlier stages of training, Belarus Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin said.

"In general, its focus will remain unchanged - it is designed to ensure an adequate response and de-escalation of military preparations of ill-wishers near our common borders," Khrenin said.

Hundreds of artillery shells exploded along the contact line between Ukrainian soldiers and Russia-backed separatists, and thousands of people evacuated eastern Ukraine, further increasing fears Sunday that the volatile region could spark a Russian invasion.

Also see |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/russias-next-wonder-weapon-kedr-intercontinental-ballistic-missile-454013">Russia's next wonder weapon: Kedr intercontinental ballistic missile</a>

Western leaders warned that Russia was poised to attack its neighbor, which is surrounded on three sides by about 150,000 Russian soldiers, warplanes and equipment. Russia held nuclear drills Saturday and conducted conventional exercises in neighboring Belarus, and has ongoing naval drills off the coast in the Black Sea.

The United States and many European countries have alleged for months that Russia is trying to create pretexts to invade. They have threatened massive, immediate sanctions if it does.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to choose a place where the two leaders could meet to try to resolve the crisis. Russia has denied plans to invade.

“Ukraine will continue to follow only the diplomatic path for the sake of a peaceful settlement,” Zelenskyy said Saturday at an international security conference in Munich, Germany.&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies)

Belarus' Defence Ministry has said Russia and Belarus would extend joint military exercises that had been due to end on Sunday. "The presidents of Belarus and Russia decided to continue inspections of the readiness of Union State forces," the Belarusian defence minister Victor Khrenin said in a statement.

Belarus' Defence Ministry has said Russia and Belarus would extend joint military exercises that had been due to end on Sunday. "The presidents of Belarus and Russia decided to continue inspections of the readiness of Union State forces," the Belarusian defence minister Victor Khrenin said in a statement. He said the decision was taken due to increased military activity along the Belarusian and Russian borders and because of an "escalation" in east Ukraine. The next stage would address defence areas that had not been fully covered by the earlier stages of training, Belarus Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin said. "In general, its focus will remain unchanged - it is designed to ensure an adequate response and de-escalation of military preparations of ill-wishers near our common borders," Khrenin said. Hundreds of artillery shells exploded along the contact line between Ukrainian soldiers and Russia-backed separatists, and thousands of people evacuated eastern Ukraine, further increasing fears Sunday that the volatile region could spark a Russian invasion. Also see | Russia's next wonder weapon: Kedr intercontinental ballistic missile Western leaders warned that Russia was poised to attack its neighbor, which is surrounded on three sides by about 150,000 Russian soldiers, warplanes and equipment. Russia held nuclear drills Saturday and conducted conventional exercises in neighboring Belarus, and has ongoing naval drills off the coast in the Black Sea. The United States and many European countries have alleged for months that Russia is trying to create pretexts to invade. They have threatened massive, immediate sanctions if it does. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to choose a place where the two leaders could meet to try to resolve the crisis. Russia has denied plans to invade. “Ukraine will continue to follow only the diplomatic path for the sake of a peaceful settlement,” Zelenskyy said Saturday at an international security conference in Munich, Germany. (With inputs from agencies)

Ukraine crisis: Belarus says Russian forces to remain for more drills

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that Russia is planning the biggest war since 1945.

"The fact is that all the signs are that the plan has already in some senses begun," he said in a BBC interview broadcast Sunday from the Munich Security Conference, after two Ukrainian soldiers were killed in attacks around rebel-held enclaves.

"People need to understand the sheer cost in human life that could entail," he said, after previously indicating that the West would continue to support any Ukraine resistance after an invasion.

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"I'm afraid to say that the plan we are seeing is for something that could be really the biggest war in Europe since 1945, just in terms of sheer scale."

Hundreds of artillery shells exploded along the contact line between Ukrainian soldiers and Russia-backed separatists, and thousands of people evacuated eastern Ukraine, further increasing fears Sunday that the volatile region could spark a Russian invasion.

Western leaders warned that Russia was poised to attack its neighbor, which is surrounded on three sides by about 150,000 Russian soldiers, warplanes and equipment. Russia held nuclear drills Saturday in neighboring Belarus and has ongoing naval drills off the coast in the Black Sea.

Also see |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/satellite-pictures-show-russian-helicopters-still-parked-in-crimea-454505">Satellite pictures show Russian helicopters still parked in Crimea</a>

The United States and many European countries have alleged for months that Russia is trying to create pretexts to invade. They have threatened massive, immediate sanctions if it does.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to choose a place to meet where the two leaders could meet to try to resolve the crisis.

Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine on Saturday ordered a full military mobilisation and sent more civilians to Russia, which has issued about 700,000 passports to residents of the rebel-held territories.

Also see |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/strike-force-russias-tornado-s-rocket-system-can-strike-multiple-targets-454294">Strike force: Russia's Tornado-S rocket system can strike multiple targets</a>

Johnson has recommended that the West should cut off Russian companies' access to US dollars and British pounds if the Kremlin orders an invasion of Ukraine.

Given Russia's position as one of the world's top exporters of oil, gas and metals, which are largely priced and settled in US dollars, blocking Russian companies from access to dollar markets could have a stinging impact.

Putin has repeatedly called for reducing reliance on the US dollar trade.

Russia's largest oil company Rosneft fully switched the currency of its contracts to euros from US dollars to shield its transactions from US sanctions, CEO Igor Sechin said in 2019.

(With inputs from agencies)

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that Russia is planning the biggest war since 1945. "The fact is that all the signs are that the plan has already in some senses begun," he said in a BBC interview broadcast Sunday from the Munich Security Conference, after two Ukrainian soldiers were killed in attacks around rebel-held enclaves.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that Russia is planning the biggest war since 1945. "The fact is that all the signs are that the plan has already in some senses begun," he said in a BBC interview broadcast Sunday from the Munich Security Conference, after two Ukrainian soldiers were killed in attacks around rebel-held enclaves. "People need to understand the sheer cost in human life that could entail," he said, after previously indicating that the West would continue to support any Ukraine resistance after an invasion. "I'm afraid to say that the plan we are seeing is for something that could be really the biggest war in Europe since 1945, just in terms of sheer scale." Hundreds of artillery shells exploded along the contact line between Ukrainian soldiers and Russia-backed separatists, and thousands of people evacuated eastern Ukraine, further increasing fears Sunday that the volatile region could spark a Russian invasion. Western leaders warned that Russia was poised to attack its neighbor, which is surrounded on three sides by about 150,000 Russian soldiers, warplanes and equipment. Russia held nuclear drills Saturday in neighboring Belarus and has ongoing naval drills off the coast in the Black Sea. Also see | Satellite pictures show Russian helicopters still parked in Crimea The United States and many European countries have alleged for months that Russia is trying to create pretexts to invade. They have threatened massive, immediate sanctions if it does. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called on Russian President Vladimir Putin to choose a place to meet where the two leaders could meet to try to resolve the crisis. Separatist leaders in eastern Ukraine on Saturday ordered a full military mobilisation and sent more civilians to Russia, which has issued about 700,000 passports to residents of the rebel-held territories. Also see | Strike force: Russia's Tornado-S rocket system can strike multiple targets Johnson has recommended that the West should cut off Russian companies' access to US dollars and British pounds if the Kremlin orders an invasion of Ukraine. Given Russia's position as one of the world's top exporters of oil, gas and metals, which are largely priced and settled in US dollars, blocking Russian companies from access to dollar markets could have a stinging impact. Putin has repeatedly called for reducing reliance on the US dollar trade. Russia's largest oil company Rosneft fully switched the currency of its contracts to euros from US dollars to shield its transactions from US sanctions, CEO Igor Sechin said in 2019. (With inputs from agencies)

Russia planning biggest war since 1945, says Boris Johnson

US Vice President Kamala Harris said on Saturday that any Russian invasion in Ukraine will invite not only damaging economic sanctions but also a bolstered NATO on Europe's eastern flank.

"We have prepared economic measures that will be swift, severe, and united," Harris said.&nbsp;"We will target Russia's financial institutions and key industries."

The United States will not stop with economic measures, but will further reinforce the eastern flank of NATO, Harris said at the Munich Security Conference, which she attended in person.

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The United States and European countries remain on high alert should Russia create a pretext for invasion. Her comments appeared aimed at sending Putin a message the crisis has bolstered the 30-country NATO alliance's resolve to push back against any Russian aggression.

With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops now posted around Ukraine’s borders, the long-simmering separatist conflict could provide the spark for a broader attack.

Ukraine’s military said shelling killed a soldier Saturday in the government-held part of the Donetsk region and that separatist forces were placing artillery in residential areas to try and provoke a response.

Also see |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/strike-force-russias-tornado-s-rocket-system-can-strike-multiple-targets-454294">Strike force: Russia's Tornado-S rocket system can strike multiple targets</a>

On Friday, the rebels began evacuating civilians to Russia with an announcement that appeared to be part of their and Moscow’s efforts to paint Ukraine as the aggressor.

US President Joe Biden said late Friday he was now “convinced” that Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and assault the capital, Kyiv.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin announced that it would conduct massive nuclear drills Saturday, and Putin pledged to protect Russia’s national interests against what it sees as encroaching Western threats.

Biden reiterated his threat of crushing economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia if it does invade Ukraine, and pressed Putin to reconsider.

Lines of communication between Moscow and Washington remain open: the American and Russian defense chiefs spoke Friday. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov agreed to meet next week.

Immediate worries focused on eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have been fighting the pro-Russia rebels since 2014 in a conflict that has killed some 14,000 people.

Violations of a 2015 ceasefire agreement, including shelling and shooting along the line of contact, have been common.

(With inputs from agencies)

US Vice President Kamala Harris said on Saturday that any Russian invasion in Ukraine will invite not only damaging economic sanctions but also a bolstered NATO on Europe's eastern flank.

US Vice President Kamala Harris said on Saturday that any Russian invasion in Ukraine will invite not only damaging economic sanctions but also a bolstered NATO on Europe's eastern flank. "We have prepared economic measures that will be swift, severe, and united," Harris said. "We will target Russia's financial institutions and key industries." The United States will not stop with economic measures, but will further reinforce the eastern flank of NATO, Harris said at the Munich Security Conference, which she attended in person. The United States and European countries remain on high alert should Russia create a pretext for invasion. Her comments appeared aimed at sending Putin a message the crisis has bolstered the 30-country NATO alliance's resolve to push back against any Russian aggression. With an estimated 150,000 Russian troops now posted around Ukraine’s borders, the long-simmering separatist conflict could provide the spark for a broader attack. Ukraine’s military said shelling killed a soldier Saturday in the government-held part of the Donetsk region and that separatist forces were placing artillery in residential areas to try and provoke a response. Also see | Strike force: Russia's Tornado-S rocket system can strike multiple targets On Friday, the rebels began evacuating civilians to Russia with an announcement that appeared to be part of their and Moscow’s efforts to paint Ukraine as the aggressor. US President Joe Biden said late Friday he was now “convinced” that Russian President Vladimir Putin has decided to invade Ukraine and assault the capital, Kyiv. Meanwhile, the Kremlin announced that it would conduct massive nuclear drills Saturday, and Putin pledged to protect Russia’s national interests against what it sees as encroaching Western threats. Biden reiterated his threat of crushing economic and diplomatic sanctions against Russia if it does invade Ukraine, and pressed Putin to reconsider. Lines of communication between Moscow and Washington remain open: the American and Russian defense chiefs spoke Friday. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov agreed to meet next week. Immediate worries focused on eastern Ukraine, where Ukrainian forces have been fighting the pro-Russia rebels since 2014 in a conflict that has killed some 14,000 people. Violations of a 2015 ceasefire agreement, including shelling and shooting along the line of contact, have been common. (With inputs from agencies)

Russia invading Ukraine will invite bolstered NATO on Europe's eastern flank: Harris

Air India stated today that it will run three Vande Bharat Mission (VBM) flights between India and Ukraine this month, following the chaos and confusion surrounding Indians stranded in a tense Ukraine.&nbsp; 
 
The flights will be operational on February 22, 24 and 26.&nbsp;

"Air India will operate 3 flights between India-Ukraine (Boryspil International Airport) India on 22nd 24th &amp; 26th FEB 2022 (sic)," announced Air India on its official Twitter account.&nbsp;

"Booking open through Air India Booking offices, Website, Call Centre and Authorised Travel Agents (sic)," it added.

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<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FlyAI?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FlyAI</a> : Air India will operate 3 flights between India-Ukraine (Boryspil International Airport) India on 22nd, 24th &amp; 26th FEB 2022 
 
Booking open through Air India Booking offices, Website, Call Centre and Authorised Travel Agents.<a href="https://twitter.com/IndiainUkraine?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@IndiainUkraine</a>
— Air India (@airindiain) <a href="https://twitter.com/airindiain/status/1494637431471022080?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 18, 2022</a></blockquote>
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This comes as a result of Russia's decision to undertake huge drills of its strategic nuclear forces, a harsh reminder of the country's nuclear capability.

According to a Kremlin official, Russian President Vladimir Putin will personally oversee Saturday's drill, which will include repeated mock launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.

The manoeuvres were planned a long time ago, according to the Russian defence ministry, to test the readiness of Russia's military command and staff, as well as the reliability of its nuclear and conventional weapons.&nbsp;

Meanwhile, shelling erupted in eastern Ukraine on Friday, as the army and separatists supported by Moscow traded accusations of provocations.

The Lugansk region saw a barrage of explosions and destroyed civilian structures on the frontline between government forces and rebel-held territory.

Russia is increasing pressure on Ukraine by demanding that the US withdraw all forces from NATO nations in Central and Eastern Europe.&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies)

Air India stated today that it will run three Vande Bharat Mission (VBM) flights between India and Ukraine this month, following the chaos and confusion surrounding Indians stranded in a tense Ukraine.

Air India stated today that it will run three Vande Bharat Mission (VBM) flights between India and Ukraine this month, following the chaos and confusion surrounding Indians stranded in a tense Ukraine. The flights will be operational on February 22, 24 and 26. "Air India will operate 3 flights between India-Ukraine (Boryspil International Airport) India on 22nd 24th & 26th FEB 2022 (sic)," announced Air India on its official Twitter account. "Booking open through Air India Booking offices, Website, Call Centre and Authorised Travel Agents (sic)," it added. #FlyAI : Air India will operate 3 flights between India-Ukraine (Boryspil International Airport) India on 22nd, 24th & 26th FEB 2022 Booking open through Air India Booking offices, Website, Call Centre and Authorised Travel Agents.@IndiainUkraine — Air India (@airindiain) February 18, 2022 × This comes as a result of Russia's decision to undertake huge drills of its strategic nuclear forces, a harsh reminder of the country's nuclear capability. According to a Kremlin official, Russian President Vladimir Putin will personally oversee Saturday's drill, which will include repeated mock launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles and cruise missiles. The manoeuvres were planned a long time ago, according to the Russian defence ministry, to test the readiness of Russia's military command and staff, as well as the reliability of its nuclear and conventional weapons. Meanwhile, shelling erupted in eastern Ukraine on Friday, as the army and separatists supported by Moscow traded accusations of provocations. The Lugansk region saw a barrage of explosions and destroyed civilian structures on the frontline between government forces and rebel-held territory. Russia is increasing pressure on Ukraine by demanding that the US withdraw all forces from NATO nations in Central and Eastern Europe. (With inputs from agencies)

Russia-Ukraine crisis: Air India to operate three flights to help Indian citizens fly out

To get your day started, here are some stories.

As tensions between Russia and Ukraine grow, Russian separatists, shelled the village of Stanytsia-Luganska in east Ukraine. The shell struck the wall of a kindergarten that was occupied by 20 children and 18 staff members. No casualties have been reported.&nbsp;Judge orders former President Donald Trump and his eldest children to testify under oath in a civil probe into alleged fraud at Trump's family business, the latest legal setback for 75-year-old Trump who faces multiple cases that could complicate his bid for another term in office in 2024.

Click on the headline to read more:

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/pro-russian-rebels-shell-ukraine-kindergarten-amid-tensions-454171">'Big provocation': Pro-Russian rebels shell Ukraine Kindergarten amid tensions</a>

<img src="https://cdn.wionews.com/sites/default/files/styles/story_page/public/2022/02/18/241583-markets1.JPG" />

There were reports of shelling by Russian separatists in the eastern Ukrainian village of Stanytsia-Luganska amid soaring tensions between Russia and Ukraine.&nbsp;The shell blast hit the wall of a Kindergarten used by 20 children and 18 staff.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/you-just-look-dumb-elon-musk-compares-trudeau-to-hitler-later-deletes-the-tweet-heres-what-he-said-454172">'You just look dumb': Elon Musk compares Trudeau to Hitler, later deletes the tweet. Here's what he said</a>

<img src="https://cdn.wionews.com/sites/default/files/styles/story_page/public/2018/09/12/48999-Capture_10.PNG" />Triggering a storm on Twitter, Tesla CEO Elon Musk compared Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with Adolf Hitler in a tweet that apparently expressed support for truckers protesting vaccine mandates.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/latest-legal-blow-to-donald-trump-us-judge-orders-him-to-testify-in-fraud-probe-454168">Latest legal blow to Donald Trump:&nbsp;US judge orders him to testify in fraud probe</a>

<img src="https://cdn.wionews.com/sites/default/files/styles/story_page/public/2022/02/18/241584-stories-10.jpg" />

In a civil probe into alleged fraud at Donald Trump's family business, a US judge ruled that the former president and his eldest children Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump Jr must give testimony under oath.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/state-plainly-russia-will-not-invade-ukraine-us-challenges-putin-454166">State plainly Russia will not invade Ukraine, US challenges Putin</a>

<img src="https://cdn.wionews.com/sites/default/files/styles/story_page/public/2022/02/17/241462-russian-bmp-3-infantry-fighting-vehicles.jpg" />

US secretary of state Anthony Blinken told the United Nations&nbsp;that Russia is seeking to unleash a major invasion in the "coming days".&nbsp;The US diplomat citing intelligence inputs asked Russia to "announce today with no qualification, equivocation or deflection that Russia will not invade Ukraine. State it clearly. State it plainly to the world."

Beijing Winter Olympics: 15-year-old Russian skater Kamila Valieva misses out on podium

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To get your day started, here are some stories. As tensions between Russia and Ukraine grow, Russian separatists, shelled the village of Stanytsia-Luganska in east Ukraine.

To get your day started, here are some stories. As tensions between Russia and Ukraine grow, Russian separatists, shelled the village of Stanytsia-Luganska in east Ukraine. The shell struck the wall of a kindergarten that was occupied by 20 children and 18 staff members. No casualties have been reported. Judge orders former President Donald Trump and his eldest children to testify under oath in a civil probe into alleged fraud at Trump's family business, the latest legal setback for 75-year-old Trump who faces multiple cases that could complicate his bid for another term in office in 2024. Click on the headline to read more: 'Big provocation': Pro-Russian rebels shell Ukraine Kindergarten amid tensions There were reports of shelling by Russian separatists in the eastern Ukrainian village of Stanytsia-Luganska amid soaring tensions between Russia and Ukraine. The shell blast hit the wall of a Kindergarten used by 20 children and 18 staff. 'You just look dumb': Elon Musk compares Trudeau to Hitler, later deletes the tweet. Here's what he said Triggering a storm on Twitter, Tesla CEO Elon Musk compared Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with Adolf Hitler in a tweet that apparently expressed support for truckers protesting vaccine mandates. Latest legal blow to Donald Trump: US judge orders him to testify in fraud probe In a civil probe into alleged fraud at Donald Trump's family business, a US judge ruled that the former president and his eldest children Ivanka Trump, Donald Trump Jr must give testimony under oath. State plainly Russia will not invade Ukraine, US challenges Putin US secretary of state Anthony Blinken told the United Nations that Russia is seeking to unleash a major invasion in the "coming days". The US diplomat citing intelligence inputs asked Russia to "announce today with no qualification, equivocation or deflection that Russia will not invade Ukraine. State it clearly. State it plainly to the world." Beijing Winter Olympics: 15-year-old Russian skater Kamila Valieva misses out on podium

Morning brief: Latest legal blow to Trump, Blinken asks Russia to state plainly won't attack Ukraine & more

How a German 'climate' fund set out to help Russia dodge US sanctions

At the end of the Cold War, the third-largest nuclear power on earth was not Britain, France or China. It was Ukraine. The Soviet collapse, a slow-motion downfall that culminated in December 1991, resulted in the newly independent Ukraine inheriting roughly 5,000 nuclear arms that Moscow had stationed on its soil. Underground silos on its military bases held long-range missiles that carried up to 10 thermonuclear warheads, each far stronger than the bomb that leveled Hiroshima. Only Russia and the United States had more weapons.

The removal of this arsenal often gets hailed as a triumph of arms control. Diplomats and peace activists cast Ukraine as a model citizen in a world of would-be nuclear powers.

But history shows the denuclearization to have been a chaotic upheaval that shook with infighting, reversals and discord among the country’s government and military. At the time, both Ukrainian and American experts questioned the wisdom of atomic disarmament. The deadly weapons, some argued, were the only reliable means of deterring Russian aggression.

Today Ukraine has no easy path to producing or acquiring the materials to build a bomb. Even so, the nuclear genie is once again stirring as Russian troops encircle the nation and wage a shadow war in its easternmost provinces.

“We gave away the capability for nothing,” said Andriy Zahorodniuk, a former defense minister of Ukraine. Referring to the security assurances Ukraine won in exchange for its nuclear arms, he added: “Now, every time somebody offers us to sign a strip of paper, the response is, ‘Thank you very much. We already had one of those some time ago.’”

Western analysts say the current Ukrainian mood tends to romanticize the atomic past. “The gist is, ‘We had the weapons, gave them up and now look what’s happening,’” said Mariana Budjeryn, a Ukraine specialist at Harvard University. “On a policy level, I see no movement toward any kind of reconsideration. But on a popular level, that’s the narrative.”

“Regret is part of it,” Budjeryn, a Ukrainian native, added. “The other part is whatever one feels as a result of being subjected to injustice.”

At first, Ukraine rushed to get the Soviet arms off its soil. Bombs, artillery shells, land mines and the relatively small warheads atop short-range missiles were the easiest to relocate and most likely to fall into unfriendly hands. More difficult to move were the long-range missiles, which could weigh 100 tons and rise to a height of nearly 90 feet.

In January 1992, a month after the Soviet Union ceased to exist, Ukraine’s president and defense minister ordered military commanders and their men to pledge loyalty to the new country — a move that would exert administrative control over the remaining arms. Many refused, and the soldiers who managed Ukraine’s nuclear forces fell into a period of tense bewilderment over the fate of the arsenal and its operational status.

Volodymyr Tolubko, a former nuclear-base commander who had been elected to the Ukrainian parliament, argued that Kyiv should never give up its atomic edge. In April 1992, he told the assembly that it was “romantic and premature” for Ukraine to declare itself a non-nuclear state and insisted that it should retain at least some of its long-range warheads. A residual missile force, he declared, would be enough to “deter any aggressor.”

While his stance never gained wide support, “it compounded existing tensions,” according to a detailed history of Ukraine’s nuclear disarmament.

In the summer of 1993, John J. Mearsheimer, a prominent international relations theorist at the University of Chicago who was no stranger to controversy, lent his voice to the issue of atomic retention. He argued in Foreign Affairs that a nuclear arsenal was “imperative” if Ukraine was “to maintain peace.” The deterrent, he added, would ensure that the Russians, “who have a history of bad relations with Ukraine, do not move to reconquer it.”

In Kyiv, the government in 1993 went so far as to consider seizing operational control of its nuclear missiles and bombers. But that never came to pass.

Instead, Ukraine punted. It demanded that, in exchange for nuclear disarmament, it would need ironclad security guarantees. That was the heart of the agreement signed in Moscow early in 1994 by Russia, Ukraine and the United States.

In late 1994, the pledges got fleshed out. The accord, known as the Budapest Memorandum, signed by Russia, Ukraine, Britain and the U.S., promised that none of the nations would use force or threats against Ukraine and all would respect its sovereignty and existing borders. The agreement also vowed that, if aggression took place, the signatories would seek immediate action from the United Nations Security Council to aid Ukraine.

While Kyiv had failed to get what it wanted — the kind of legally binding guarantees that would come with a formal treaty ratified by the U.S. Senate — it received assurances that Washington would take its political commitments as seriously as its legal obligations, according to Budjeryn, a research analyst at the Managing the Atom project at Harvard’s Kennedy School.

In May 1996, Ukraine saw the last of its nuclear arms transported back to Russia. The repatriations had taken a half decade.

What undid the diplomatic feat was the “collective failure” of Washington and Kyiv to take into account the rise of someone like Vladimir Putin, Steven Pifer, a negotiator of the Budapest Memorandum and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine now at Stanford University, said. After Russian troops invaded Crimea in early 2014 and stepped up a proxy war in eastern Ukraine, Putin dismissed the Budapest accord as null and void.

“They’ve been fighting a low-grade war for eight years,” Pifer, who just returned from Kyiv, said of the Ukrainians. “You can’t find bullets in the stores. A lot of civilians are arming up.”

In Ukraine, the Crimean invasion and the lengthy war led to a series of calls for atomic rearmament, according to Budjeryn, author of “Inheriting the Bomb,” a forthcoming book from Johns Hopkins University Press.

In March 2014, Volodymyr Ohryzko, a former foreign minister, argued that Ukraine now had the moral and legal right to reestablish its nuclear status. In July, an ultranationalist parliamentary bloc introduced a bill for arsenal reacquisition. Later that year, a poll showed that public approval stood at nearly 50% for nuclear rearmament.

Last year, Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, said Kyiv might look to nuclear arms if it cannot become a member of NATO. “How else can we guarantee our defense?” Melnyk asked. The Foreign Ministry denied that such options were under consideration.

Western experts, including Budjeryn, see the Ukrainian stirrings and threats as empty gestures given the tangle of scientific, logistical, financial and geopolitical challenges that Kyiv would face if it opted for nuclear rearmament. Kyiv could encounter the same dilemmas that have confronted Tehran, Iran, which has worked steadily for decades to acquire the know-how and materials to build a bomb — all of which Ukraine apparently lacks.

More widely, experts fear that the current crisis could turn Ukraine from an example of arms-control benefits to one of atomic-disarmament risks, and drive the Irans and Saudi Arabias of the world to pursue their own nuclear arms programs.

“If a diplomatic solution is not achieved, it will reinforce the impression that nuclear-armed states can bully non-nuclear states” and thus “reduce the incentives” for disarmament, said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington.

Pifer argued in a 2019 analysis that the high costs of rearmament would ultimately include Ukraine finding itself alone in any crisis or confrontation with Russia.

“A lot of countries are supportive of Ukraine,” he said of the current standoff. If, however, the nation went nuclear, Pifer added, “that support would dry up quickly.” 
&nbsp;

At the end of the Cold War, the third-largest nuclear power on earth was not Britain, France or China. It was Ukraine. The Soviet collapse, a slow-motion downfall that culminated in December 1991, resulted in the newly independent Ukraine inheriting roughly 5,000 nuclear arms that Moscow had stationed on its soil.

At the end of the Cold War, the third-largest nuclear power on earth was not Britain, France or China. It was Ukraine. The Soviet collapse, a slow-motion downfall that culminated in December 1991, resulted in the newly independent Ukraine inheriting roughly 5,000 nuclear arms that Moscow had stationed on its soil. Underground silos on its military bases held long-range missiles that carried up to 10 thermonuclear warheads, each far stronger than the bomb that leveled Hiroshima. Only Russia and the United States had more weapons. The removal of this arsenal often gets hailed as a triumph of arms control. Diplomats and peace activists cast Ukraine as a model citizen in a world of would-be nuclear powers. But history shows the denuclearization to have been a chaotic upheaval that shook with infighting, reversals and discord among the country’s government and military. At the time, both Ukrainian and American experts questioned the wisdom of atomic disarmament. The deadly weapons, some argued, were the only reliable means of deterring Russian aggression. Today Ukraine has no easy path to producing or acquiring the materials to build a bomb. Even so, the nuclear genie is once again stirring as Russian troops encircle the nation and wage a shadow war in its easternmost provinces. “We gave away the capability for nothing,” said Andriy Zahorodniuk, a former defense minister of Ukraine. Referring to the security assurances Ukraine won in exchange for its nuclear arms, he added: “Now, every time somebody offers us to sign a strip of paper, the response is, ‘Thank you very much. We already had one of those some time ago.’” Western analysts say the current Ukrainian mood tends to romanticize the atomic past. “The gist is, ‘We had the weapons, gave them up and now look what’s happening,’” said Mariana Budjeryn, a Ukraine specialist at Harvard University. “On a policy level, I see no movement toward any kind of reconsideration. But on a popular level, that’s the narrative.” “Regret is part of it,” Budjeryn, a Ukrainian native, added. “The other part is whatever one feels as a result of being subjected to injustice.” At first, Ukraine rushed to get the Soviet arms off its soil. Bombs, artillery shells, land mines and the relatively small warheads atop short-range missiles were the easiest to relocate and most likely to fall into unfriendly hands. More difficult to move were the long-range missiles, which could weigh 100 tons and rise to a height of nearly 90 feet. In January 1992, a month after the Soviet Union ceased to exist, Ukraine’s president and defense minister ordered military commanders and their men to pledge loyalty to the new country — a move that would exert administrative control over the remaining arms. Many refused, and the soldiers who managed Ukraine’s nuclear forces fell into a period of tense bewilderment over the fate of the arsenal and its operational status. Volodymyr Tolubko, a former nuclear-base commander who had been elected to the Ukrainian parliament, argued that Kyiv should never give up its atomic edge. In April 1992, he told the assembly that it was “romantic and premature” for Ukraine to declare itself a non-nuclear state and insisted that it should retain at least some of its long-range warheads. A residual missile force, he declared, would be enough to “deter any aggressor.” While his stance never gained wide support, “it compounded existing tensions,” according to a detailed history of Ukraine’s nuclear disarmament. In the summer of 1993, John J. Mearsheimer, a prominent international relations theorist at the University of Chicago who was no stranger to controversy, lent his voice to the issue of atomic retention. He argued in Foreign Affairs that a nuclear arsenal was “imperative” if Ukraine was “to maintain peace.” The deterrent, he added, would ensure that the Russians, “who have a history of bad relations with Ukraine, do not move to reconquer it.” In Kyiv, the government in 1993 went so far as to consider seizing operational control of its nuclear missiles and bombers. But that never came to pass. Instead, Ukraine punted. It demanded that, in exchange for nuclear disarmament, it would need ironclad security guarantees. That was the heart of the agreement signed in Moscow early in 1994 by Russia, Ukraine and the United States. In late 1994, the pledges got fleshed out. The accord, known as the Budapest Memorandum, signed by Russia, Ukraine, Britain and the U.S., promised that none of the nations would use force or threats against Ukraine and all would respect its sovereignty and existing borders. The agreement also vowed that, if aggression took place, the signatories would seek immediate action from the United Nations Security Council to aid Ukraine. While Kyiv had failed to get what it wanted — the kind of legally binding guarantees that would come with a formal treaty ratified by the U.S. Senate — it received assurances that Washington would take its political commitments as seriously as its legal obligations, according to Budjeryn, a research analyst at the Managing the Atom project at Harvard’s Kennedy School. In May 1996, Ukraine saw the last of its nuclear arms transported back to Russia. The repatriations had taken a half decade. What undid the diplomatic feat was the “collective failure” of Washington and Kyiv to take into account the rise of someone like Vladimir Putin, Steven Pifer, a negotiator of the Budapest Memorandum and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine now at Stanford University, said. After Russian troops invaded Crimea in early 2014 and stepped up a proxy war in eastern Ukraine, Putin dismissed the Budapest accord as null and void. “They’ve been fighting a low-grade war for eight years,” Pifer, who just returned from Kyiv, said of the Ukrainians. “You can’t find bullets in the stores. A lot of civilians are arming up.” In Ukraine, the Crimean invasion and the lengthy war led to a series of calls for atomic rearmament, according to Budjeryn, author of “Inheriting the Bomb,” a forthcoming book from Johns Hopkins University Press. In March 2014, Volodymyr Ohryzko, a former foreign minister, argued that Ukraine now had the moral and legal right to reestablish its nuclear status. In July, an ultranationalist parliamentary bloc introduced a bill for arsenal reacquisition. Later that year, a poll showed that public approval stood at nearly 50% for nuclear rearmament. Last year, Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany, Andriy Melnyk, said Kyiv might look to nuclear arms if it cannot become a member of NATO. “How else can we guarantee our defense?” Melnyk asked. The Foreign Ministry denied that such options were under consideration. Western experts, including Budjeryn, see the Ukrainian stirrings and threats as empty gestures given the tangle of scientific, logistical, financial and geopolitical challenges that Kyiv would face if it opted for nuclear rearmament. Kyiv could encounter the same dilemmas that have confronted Tehran, Iran, which has worked steadily for decades to acquire the know-how and materials to build a bomb — all of which Ukraine apparently lacks. More widely, experts fear that the current crisis could turn Ukraine from an example of arms-control benefits to one of atomic-disarmament risks, and drive the Irans and Saudi Arabias of the world to pursue their own nuclear arms programs. “If a diplomatic solution is not achieved, it will reinforce the impression that nuclear-armed states can bully non-nuclear states” and thus “reduce the incentives” for disarmament, said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association in Washington. Pifer argued in a 2019 analysis that the high costs of rearmament would ultimately include Ukraine finding itself alone in any crisis or confrontation with Russia. “A lot of countries are supportive of Ukraine,” he said of the current standoff. If, however, the nation went nuclear, Pifer added, “that support would dry up quickly.”

Ukraine gave up a giant nuclear arsenal 30 years ago. Today there are regrets.

A day after President Joe Biden warned President Vladimir Putin of Russia that the costs of an attack on Ukraine would be severe, there was no indication that tensions were easing. Foreign embassies continued to withdraw nonessential staff, nations urged their citizens to leave the country, and the Russian military buildup in the region showed no signs of slowing.

While President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine urged calm, and Russia continued to deny that it is planning to invade its neighbor, weeks of frenzied diplomacy showed little sign of progress.

Still, efforts to defuse the crisis are continuing, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany planning to travel to Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, on Monday and Moscow on Tuesday.

“It is our job to ensure that we prevent a war in Europe, in that we send a clear message to Russia that any military aggression would have consequences that would be very high for Russia and its prospects, and that we are united with our allies,” Scholz told the upper house of the Bundestag, Germany’s Parliament, on Friday.

Ahead of the visit, a German official said Scholz would be “actively urging for dialogue,” in which concrete steps toward de-escalation would be discussed. While the German delegation would put its threat perception on the table, the official said the visit was aimed at gaining “a better understanding of Russia’s goals” and Scholz would be open to initiating a broader discussion about “Russian grievances.”

Berlin is viewed with skepticism by many in Ukraine for not providing military weapons to aid in its defense as other NATO allies have. Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany complained Sunday about “German hypocrisy” on Twitter, noting that Berlin sells materials to Russia that can increase weapons production.

Last week, Scholz traveled to Washington, where he met Biden in a key attempt to shore up the alliance between the United States and Europe’s most powerful economy. Biden vowed that a lucrative gas pipeline project connecting Russia and Germany, Nord Stream 2, would be halted if Moscow invades Ukraine.

Scholz has not explicitly said the pipeline will be canceled in the event of an invasion, but Biden said the two countries were crafting their policies “in lockstep.”

Scholz’s Social Democratic Party has historically favored strong ties between Germany and Russia and has struggled to develop a coherent stance in dealing with Putin. But German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who rose to political prominence as a member of the party, was unequivocal in his criticism of the Russian troop buildup. Reelected Sunday to a second five-year term, he warned Putin not to “underestimate the power of democracy” in his acceptance speech.

“We are in the midst of a military conflict, a war in Eastern Europe,” Steinmeier said. “Russia is responsible for that.”

He appealed directly to Putin, calling on him to “untie the noose around Ukraine’s neck and join us in finding a way to preserve peace in Europe.”

Ben Wallace, the United Kingdom’s defense secretary, criticized Western efforts at reaching a diplomatic solution with Russia as “appeasement” in an interview with the Sunday Times.

Western officials estimate that Russia has massed more than 130,000 troops on Ukraine’s northern, southern and eastern borders, which Wallace said was enough to “launch an offensive at any time,” something he said was “highly likely.”

While the menacing military buildup around Ukraine has been roundly criticized by most Western governments, Putin has found support in some other autocratic leaders.

Brazil’s populist president, Jair Bolsonaro, is expected to arrive in Moscow on Tuesday, the same day as Scholz, for a meeting with Putin. The visit is seen as part of Putin’s attempt to shore up his alliances with Latin American countries that have traditionally been close to the United States.

Bolsonaro, whose approval rating is at a low ahead of elections this year, said Saturday that he did not intend to raise the issue of a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

“We ask God that peace reign in the world, for the good of all of us,” he said in a radio interview. 
&nbsp;

A day after President Joe Biden warned President Vladimir Putin of Russia that the costs of an attack on Ukraine would be severe, there was no indication that tensions were easing.

A day after President Joe Biden warned President Vladimir Putin of Russia that the costs of an attack on Ukraine would be severe, there was no indication that tensions were easing. Foreign embassies continued to withdraw nonessential staff, nations urged their citizens to leave the country, and the Russian military buildup in the region showed no signs of slowing. While President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine urged calm, and Russia continued to deny that it is planning to invade its neighbor, weeks of frenzied diplomacy showed little sign of progress. Still, efforts to defuse the crisis are continuing, with Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany planning to travel to Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, on Monday and Moscow on Tuesday. “It is our job to ensure that we prevent a war in Europe, in that we send a clear message to Russia that any military aggression would have consequences that would be very high for Russia and its prospects, and that we are united with our allies,” Scholz told the upper house of the Bundestag, Germany’s Parliament, on Friday. Ahead of the visit, a German official said Scholz would be “actively urging for dialogue,” in which concrete steps toward de-escalation would be discussed. While the German delegation would put its threat perception on the table, the official said the visit was aimed at gaining “a better understanding of Russia’s goals” and Scholz would be open to initiating a broader discussion about “Russian grievances.” Berlin is viewed with skepticism by many in Ukraine for not providing military weapons to aid in its defense as other NATO allies have. Ukraine’s ambassador to Germany complained Sunday about “German hypocrisy” on Twitter, noting that Berlin sells materials to Russia that can increase weapons production. Last week, Scholz traveled to Washington, where he met Biden in a key attempt to shore up the alliance between the United States and Europe’s most powerful economy. Biden vowed that a lucrative gas pipeline project connecting Russia and Germany, Nord Stream 2, would be halted if Moscow invades Ukraine. Scholz has not explicitly said the pipeline will be canceled in the event of an invasion, but Biden said the two countries were crafting their policies “in lockstep.” Scholz’s Social Democratic Party has historically favored strong ties between Germany and Russia and has struggled to develop a coherent stance in dealing with Putin. But German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier, who rose to political prominence as a member of the party, was unequivocal in his criticism of the Russian troop buildup. Reelected Sunday to a second five-year term, he warned Putin not to “underestimate the power of democracy” in his acceptance speech. “We are in the midst of a military conflict, a war in Eastern Europe,” Steinmeier said. “Russia is responsible for that.” He appealed directly to Putin, calling on him to “untie the noose around Ukraine’s neck and join us in finding a way to preserve peace in Europe.” Ben Wallace, the United Kingdom’s defense secretary, criticized Western efforts at reaching a diplomatic solution with Russia as “appeasement” in an interview with the Sunday Times. Western officials estimate that Russia has massed more than 130,000 troops on Ukraine’s northern, southern and eastern borders, which Wallace said was enough to “launch an offensive at any time,” something he said was “highly likely.” While the menacing military buildup around Ukraine has been roundly criticized by most Western governments, Putin has found support in some other autocratic leaders. Brazil’s populist president, Jair Bolsonaro, is expected to arrive in Moscow on Tuesday, the same day as Scholz, for a meeting with Putin. The visit is seen as part of Putin’s attempt to shore up his alliances with Latin American countries that have traditionally been close to the United States. Bolsonaro, whose approval rating is at a low ahead of elections this year, said Saturday that he did not intend to raise the issue of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. “We ask God that peace reign in the world, for the good of all of us,” he said in a radio interview.

German leader will visit Moscow as diplomatic breakthrough remains elusive

Ukrainian athlete at the Winter Olympics 2022, which is underway in China, has raised his voice against the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine.&nbsp;

Amid calls for diplomatic talks, the situation appears to have deteriorated after the United States President Joe Biden used the word "world war".&nbsp;

On Thursday (February 10), Biden urged Americans to immediately leave Ukraine as the US-Russia tensions are at their highest since the Cold War.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/sports/beijing-2022-winter-olympics-russia-raises-serious-questions-over-kamila-valieva-doping-scandal-452392">Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics: Russia raises 'serious questions' over Kamila Valieva doping scandal</a>

In a pre-recorded interview with NBC News, Biden said, "American citizens should leave now. We're dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It's a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly."&nbsp;

He said that under no circumstances would he send US troops to Ukraine, even to rescue Americans in case of a Russian invasion. "That's a world war. When Americans and Russians start shooting one another, we're in a very different world," he said.&nbsp;

Although Russia has denied it, but the Western countries are fearing that President Vladimir Putin is planning to invade Ukraine with amassing over 130,000 Russian soldiers are grouped in dozens of combat brigades near the border with Ukraine.&nbsp;

IN PICS |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/from-russia-doping-row-to-inedible-food-controversies-galore-at-beijing-winter-olympics-2022-452360">From Russia doping row to 'inedible' food: Controversies galore at Beijing Winter Olympics 2022</a>

Meanwhile, the 'no war in Ukraine' call has been raised at the Beijing Olympics after as an Ukrainian competitor Vladyslav Heraskevych used a skeleton race to protest.&nbsp;

The 23-year-old athlete showed a sign that read "No war in Ukraine" written in yellow and gold to the television cameras before taking part in the third heat.&nbsp;

Heraskevych told reporters at the Yanqing National Sliding Centre, "Like any normal person, I don't want war, I want peace in my country. That's my position, I fight for peace. At home in Ukraine, things are really nervous now.

He added, "There is a lot of news about guns, weapons and armies surrounding Ukraine. It's not okay. Not in the 21st century. Before it all starts, I wanted to show my position to the world."&nbsp;

Although, Heraskevych could&nbsp;face repercussions and be sanctioned by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) under its rule 50 which forbids athletes from making political protests at the Games.&nbsp;

While commenting on the same, he said, "I think the Olympics also fights for peace, for united countries not for wars, so I hope they (IOC) will be with me in this. Nobody wants war," he added.&nbsp;

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Ukrainian athlete at the Winter Olympics 2022, which is underway in China, has raised his voice against the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Amid calls for diplomatic talks, the situation appears to have deteriorated after the United States President Joe Biden used the word "world war".

Ukrainian athlete at the Winter Olympics 2022, which is underway in China, has raised his voice against the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Amid calls for diplomatic talks, the situation appears to have deteriorated after the United States President Joe Biden used the word "world war". On Thursday (February 10), Biden urged Americans to immediately leave Ukraine as the US-Russia tensions are at their highest since the Cold War. ALSO READ | Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics: Russia raises 'serious questions' over Kamila Valieva doping scandal In a pre-recorded interview with NBC News, Biden said, "American citizens should leave now. We're dealing with one of the largest armies in the world. It's a very different situation and things could go crazy quickly." He said that under no circumstances would he send US troops to Ukraine, even to rescue Americans in case of a Russian invasion. "That's a world war. When Americans and Russians start shooting one another, we're in a very different world," he said. Although Russia has denied it, but the Western countries are fearing that President Vladimir Putin is planning to invade Ukraine with amassing over 130,000 Russian soldiers are grouped in dozens of combat brigades near the border with Ukraine. IN PICS | From Russia doping row to 'inedible' food: Controversies galore at Beijing Winter Olympics 2022 Meanwhile, the 'no war in Ukraine' call has been raised at the Beijing Olympics after as an Ukrainian competitor Vladyslav Heraskevych used a skeleton race to protest. The 23-year-old athlete showed a sign that read "No war in Ukraine" written in yellow and gold to the television cameras before taking part in the third heat. Heraskevych told reporters at the Yanqing National Sliding Centre, "Like any normal person, I don't want war, I want peace in my country. That's my position, I fight for peace. At home in Ukraine, things are really nervous now. He added, "There is a lot of news about guns, weapons and armies surrounding Ukraine. It's not okay. Not in the 21st century. Before it all starts, I wanted to show my position to the world." Although, Heraskevych could face repercussions and be sanctioned by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) under its rule 50 which forbids athletes from making political protests at the Games. While commenting on the same, he said, "I think the Olympics also fights for peace, for united countries not for wars, so I hope they (IOC) will be with me in this. Nobody wants war," he added. ×

'No war in Ukraine' protest at Beijing Winter Olympics 2022

International Olympic Committee (IOC) has taken notice of the protest by Ukrainian athlete Vladyslav Heraskevych, who raised his voice at the Winter Olympics 2022 against the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine.&nbsp;

Ukrainian skeleton slider urged and protested for 'no war' at the Beijing Olympics after completing his third run in the men's skeleton event at the Yanqing National Sliding Centre on Friday night.&nbsp;

The 23-year-old athlete showed a sign that read "No war in Ukraine" written in yellow and gold to the television cameras before taking part in the third heat.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/sports/wada-to-investigate-russian-kamila-valievas-doping-scandal-at-beijing-winter-olympics-452878">WADA to investigate Russian Kamila Valieva's doping scandal at Beijing Winter Olympics</a>

However, IOC has asked him not to repeat it in his final run and IOC spokesman Mark Adams said the Olympic field of play was no place for a protest.&nbsp;

He added, "When that case occurred the night before last we spoke to the team and athlete and explained the situation to him."&nbsp;

"In his final run he ran without that. He understood. We all want peace but everyone has agreed, and athletes agreed, the field of play and podium is not the place for any kind of statement," he added.&nbsp;&nbsp;

IOC's rule 50 forbids athletes from making political protests at the Games. However, a revision prior to last year's Tokyo Summer Olympics now gives athletes more freedom to express political views while still banning such actions on the podium during medals ceremonies.&nbsp;

Adams said, "For us it (keeping politics out of the Games) is axiomatic. It is the fundamental core to what we do. The message was understood and not repeated."&nbsp;

The Olympic Games' Executive Director Christophe Dubi told a news conference on Sunday (February 13) that the IOC wanted the Olympic Truce - a pledge by world leaders not to go to war around the period of the Olympic Games - to be respected.&nbsp;

The Western countries are fearing that President Vladimir Putin is planning to invade Ukraine with amassing over 130,000 Russian soldiers are grouped in dozens of combat brigades near the border with Ukraine. But Russia denies it.&nbsp;

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(With inputs from agencies)

International Olympic Committee (IOC) has taken notice of the protest by Ukrainian athlete Vladyslav Heraskevych, who raised his voice at the Winter Olympics 2022 against the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine.

International Olympic Committee (IOC) has taken notice of the protest by Ukrainian athlete Vladyslav Heraskevych, who raised his voice at the Winter Olympics 2022 against the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine. Ukrainian skeleton slider urged and protested for 'no war' at the Beijing Olympics after completing his third run in the men's skeleton event at the Yanqing National Sliding Centre on Friday night. The 23-year-old athlete showed a sign that read "No war in Ukraine" written in yellow and gold to the television cameras before taking part in the third heat. ALSO READ | WADA to investigate Russian Kamila Valieva's doping scandal at Beijing Winter Olympics However, IOC has asked him not to repeat it in his final run and IOC spokesman Mark Adams said the Olympic field of play was no place for a protest. He added, "When that case occurred the night before last we spoke to the team and athlete and explained the situation to him." "In his final run he ran without that. He understood. We all want peace but everyone has agreed, and athletes agreed, the field of play and podium is not the place for any kind of statement," he added. IOC's rule 50 forbids athletes from making political protests at the Games. However, a revision prior to last year's Tokyo Summer Olympics now gives athletes more freedom to express political views while still banning such actions on the podium during medals ceremonies. Adams said, "For us it (keeping politics out of the Games) is axiomatic. It is the fundamental core to what we do. The message was understood and not repeated." The Olympic Games' Executive Director Christophe Dubi told a news conference on Sunday (February 13) that the IOC wanted the Olympic Truce - a pledge by world leaders not to go to war around the period of the Olympic Games - to be respected. The Western countries are fearing that President Vladimir Putin is planning to invade Ukraine with amassing over 130,000 Russian soldiers are grouped in dozens of combat brigades near the border with Ukraine. But Russia denies it. × (With inputs from agencies)

IOC urges give peace a chance after Ukrainian skeleton slider calls for 'no war in Ukraine'

The Ukraine crisis is here to stay.

President Vladimir Putin of Russia is increasingly staking his legacy on reversing Ukraine’s pro-Western shift. Even if he does not order an invasion this winter, he is making clear that he will keep the pressure on, backed by the threat of force, for as long as it takes to get his way.

But Ukraine’s leaders have so far refused to compromise on Putin’s terms, and the West sees the Kremlin’s demand for a Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Europe as a nonstarter. That leaves the best-case scenario as a long and dangerous diplomatic slog toward a difficult settlement — a process that could consume Western resources and attention for many months.

President Emmanuel Macron of France, shuttling from Moscow to Kyiv, Ukraine, to Berlin on Monday and Tuesday, described the coming days as crucial in the West’s bid to avert war. Putin countered with a pledge to keep the “dialogue” going. It was a message that implied he would be deliberate in using his levers of influence and coercion to deal with the long-standing Russian grievances that the Kremlin appears newly determined to address.

“I expect we’ll have this crisis with us, in various forms, for all of 2022, at least,” said Andrei Sushentsov, dean of the school of international relations at MGIMO, the elite Moscow university run by the Russian Foreign Ministry.

He described the current standoff as only the first step in a drawn-out Russian effort to force the West to agree to a new security architecture for Eastern Europe. It was a characterization of the start of a more high-stakes phase in Russia’s yearslong conflict with the West that is gaining currency in Moscow’s foreign policy circles.

Russia’s aim, according to Sushentsov: keep the threat of war ever-present, and thus compel negotiations that Western officials have avoided until now.

For too long, he said in an interview, people in Western Europe have been lulled into thinking that a new war on the continent was impossible. For Putin, that point of view needs to be changed, Sushentsov said, to compel the West to accept Russia’s demands.

“What’s important is this suspense, this feeling of a prewar situation,” Sushentsov said. “People are spoiled by an overly long peace. They think of security as a given, as something that is attained for free, rather than something that must be negotiated. This is a mistake.”

For the West, that approach could mean being drawn in to a new sort of “forever war” — a conflict consuming ever more time and treasure, with no clear exit strategy. President Joe Biden on Monday characterized a Russian invasion of Ukraine as “tanks or troops crossing the border.” But U.S. officials say that there remain numerous lower-grade options that Putin is considering that could touch off a less deadly but still costly conflict.

Even if Macron, working with Biden and other Western leaders, were to help secure a temporary relaxation of tensions, Putin’s demands are so expansive — and his disdain of Ukraine’s pro-Western leaders so great — that analysts struggle to imagine a grand bargain being struck.

Ruslan Pukhov, a Russian military analyst, said that even if the West and Ukraine were to make sufficient concessions in the coming weeks to avert an armed conflict, they would be unlikely to satisfy Russia in the longer term, adding that a renewed threat of war could come next year.

“The West just doesn’t understand how much this is a question of life or death for us,” said Pukhov, who runs the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a privately owned think tank in Moscow. “Ukraine in NATO, from my point of view or Russia’s, would be the equivalent of nuclear war.”

Putin made the threat of war over Ukraine between nuclear superpowers explicit twice in recent days: in news conferences after his meetings with Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary last week and with Macron on Monday. Both times, Putin described a scenario in which Ukraine would join NATO and then try to recapture Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014, with the Western alliance’s backing.

Dmitri Kiselyov, one of Russian state television’s leading anchors, on Sunday detailed what would happen next: a nuclear war in which Russia, faced with its own destruction, would take the West with it.

“Let’s remember that Russia doesn’t need a world without Russia,” Kiselyov intoned at the beginning of his weekly prime-time show, paraphrasing a 2018 line by Putin. “And then not just America, but also Europe, will turn into radioactive ash.”

Western officials describe NATO membership for Ukraine as unrealistic anytime in the near future, but the Kremlin insists that even the possibility poses an existential threat. On the ground, analysts see preparations gaining pace for a possible military solution to preventing Ukraine from ever joining NATO.

Researchers monitoring satellite imagery and footage of troop movements posted to social media say that Russia is deploying personnel and equipment within miles of the border with Ukraine. The forces have been filmed setting up tents in the mud and snow, adding to fears that Putin could order an attack as early as this month.

“It’s safe to say that this is not a force posture that Russia is going to maintain for an extended period of time,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute based in Arlington, Virginia. “They are entering a go/no-go posture, and they’re going to make that decision in the coming weeks.”

But even if an attack were to happen, touching off what would most likely be enormous human suffering in Ukraine, the diplomatic scramble would continue — with Russia exercising even more leverage, Kofman argued.

“Diplomacy continues throughout war,” he said. “Ultimately, there would need to be some sort of agreement.”

Despite the worrying troop movements, many analysts inside Russia continue to doubt that Putin will actually order a full invasion. The risks would far exceed any of Putin’s prior military pushes, like the five-day war against Georgia in 2008 or the still-simmering proxy war in eastern Ukraine that he started in 2014. Russian missiles could miss their targets, causing civilian casualties; Ukraine could respond by attacking Russian targets across the border.

“I think most military officials understand that any operation would be rife with great difficulties,” said Pukhov, the Russian military analyst. “One has to understand that even in the event of limited military action, you won’t be able to avoid a major escalation, and it won’t conclude in five days.”

The Kremlin said Tuesday that Russia would withdraw the thousands of troops it had sent to Belarus, Ukraine’s northern neighbor, after large-scale joint exercises concluded there Feb. 20. Whether the Russian troops indeed leave will be one closely watched signal of Putin’s military intentions. Even if they do, Russia’s newfound appetite for attention-grabbing military pressure against Ukraine and the West is likely to remain.

“Russia has departed from the tactic of simply asking to be listened to,” said Sushentsov, the university dean. “Russian leaders have seen that this does not work and that it is necessary to make clear the risks of the Russian position being ignored.”

The Ukraine crisis is here to stay. President Vladimir Putin of Russia is increasingly staking his legacy on reversing Ukraine’s pro-Western shift. Even if he does not order an invasion this winter, he is making clear that he will keep the pressure on, backed by the threat of force, for as long as it takes to get his way.

The Ukraine crisis is here to stay. President Vladimir Putin of Russia is increasingly staking his legacy on reversing Ukraine’s pro-Western shift. Even if he does not order an invasion this winter, he is making clear that he will keep the pressure on, backed by the threat of force, for as long as it takes to get his way. But Ukraine’s leaders have so far refused to compromise on Putin’s terms, and the West sees the Kremlin’s demand for a Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Europe as a nonstarter. That leaves the best-case scenario as a long and dangerous diplomatic slog toward a difficult settlement — a process that could consume Western resources and attention for many months. President Emmanuel Macron of France, shuttling from Moscow to Kyiv, Ukraine, to Berlin on Monday and Tuesday, described the coming days as crucial in the West’s bid to avert war. Putin countered with a pledge to keep the “dialogue” going. It was a message that implied he would be deliberate in using his levers of influence and coercion to deal with the long-standing Russian grievances that the Kremlin appears newly determined to address. “I expect we’ll have this crisis with us, in various forms, for all of 2022, at least,” said Andrei Sushentsov, dean of the school of international relations at MGIMO, the elite Moscow university run by the Russian Foreign Ministry. He described the current standoff as only the first step in a drawn-out Russian effort to force the West to agree to a new security architecture for Eastern Europe. It was a characterization of the start of a more high-stakes phase in Russia’s yearslong conflict with the West that is gaining currency in Moscow’s foreign policy circles. Russia’s aim, according to Sushentsov: keep the threat of war ever-present, and thus compel negotiations that Western officials have avoided until now. For too long, he said in an interview, people in Western Europe have been lulled into thinking that a new war on the continent was impossible. For Putin, that point of view needs to be changed, Sushentsov said, to compel the West to accept Russia’s demands. “What’s important is this suspense, this feeling of a prewar situation,” Sushentsov said. “People are spoiled by an overly long peace. They think of security as a given, as something that is attained for free, rather than something that must be negotiated. This is a mistake.” For the West, that approach could mean being drawn in to a new sort of “forever war” — a conflict consuming ever more time and treasure, with no clear exit strategy. President Joe Biden on Monday characterized a Russian invasion of Ukraine as “tanks or troops crossing the border.” But U.S. officials say that there remain numerous lower-grade options that Putin is considering that could touch off a less deadly but still costly conflict. Even if Macron, working with Biden and other Western leaders, were to help secure a temporary relaxation of tensions, Putin’s demands are so expansive — and his disdain of Ukraine’s pro-Western leaders so great — that analysts struggle to imagine a grand bargain being struck. Ruslan Pukhov, a Russian military analyst, said that even if the West and Ukraine were to make sufficient concessions in the coming weeks to avert an armed conflict, they would be unlikely to satisfy Russia in the longer term, adding that a renewed threat of war could come next year. “The West just doesn’t understand how much this is a question of life or death for us,” said Pukhov, who runs the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a privately owned think tank in Moscow. “Ukraine in NATO, from my point of view or Russia’s, would be the equivalent of nuclear war.” Putin made the threat of war over Ukraine between nuclear superpowers explicit twice in recent days: in news conferences after his meetings with Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary last week and with Macron on Monday. Both times, Putin described a scenario in which Ukraine would join NATO and then try to recapture Crimea, the Ukrainian peninsula that Russia annexed in 2014, with the Western alliance’s backing. Dmitri Kiselyov, one of Russian state television’s leading anchors, on Sunday detailed what would happen next: a nuclear war in which Russia, faced with its own destruction, would take the West with it. “Let’s remember that Russia doesn’t need a world without Russia,” Kiselyov intoned at the beginning of his weekly prime-time show, paraphrasing a 2018 line by Putin. “And then not just America, but also Europe, will turn into radioactive ash.” Western officials describe NATO membership for Ukraine as unrealistic anytime in the near future, but the Kremlin insists that even the possibility poses an existential threat. On the ground, analysts see preparations gaining pace for a possible military solution to preventing Ukraine from ever joining NATO. Researchers monitoring satellite imagery and footage of troop movements posted to social media say that Russia is deploying personnel and equipment within miles of the border with Ukraine. The forces have been filmed setting up tents in the mud and snow, adding to fears that Putin could order an attack as early as this month. “It’s safe to say that this is not a force posture that Russia is going to maintain for an extended period of time,” said Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at CNA, a research institute based in Arlington, Virginia. “They are entering a go/no-go posture, and they’re going to make that decision in the coming weeks.” But even if an attack were to happen, touching off what would most likely be enormous human suffering in Ukraine, the diplomatic scramble would continue — with Russia exercising even more leverage, Kofman argued. “Diplomacy continues throughout war,” he said. “Ultimately, there would need to be some sort of agreement.” Despite the worrying troop movements, many analysts inside Russia continue to doubt that Putin will actually order a full invasion. The risks would far exceed any of Putin’s prior military pushes, like the five-day war against Georgia in 2008 or the still-simmering proxy war in eastern Ukraine that he started in 2014. Russian missiles could miss their targets, causing civilian casualties; Ukraine could respond by attacking Russian targets across the border. “I think most military officials understand that any operation would be rife with great difficulties,” said Pukhov, the Russian military analyst. “One has to understand that even in the event of limited military action, you won’t be able to avoid a major escalation, and it won’t conclude in five days.” The Kremlin said Tuesday that Russia would withdraw the thousands of troops it had sent to Belarus, Ukraine’s northern neighbor, after large-scale joint exercises concluded there Feb. 20. Whether the Russian troops indeed leave will be one closely watched signal of Putin’s military intentions. Even if they do, Russia’s newfound appetite for attention-grabbing military pressure against Ukraine and the West is likely to remain. “Russia has departed from the tactic of simply asking to be listened to,” said Sushentsov, the university dean. “Russian leaders have seen that this does not work and that it is necessary to make clear the risks of the Russian position being ignored.”

Putin is operating on his own timetable, and it may be a long one

Weakest link? Why Russian gas puts Europe in a bind over Ukraine

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former defence minister of Ukraine has said that Russia has enough troops in place to seize Kyiv or another Ukrainian city, Guardian reported.&nbsp;

However, Zagorodnyuk further added that Moscow might fall short in numbers for a full takeover and occupation of the country, the report published on February 6 added.

In an interview with the media outlet, the former defence minister said that the situation is "pretty dire". "Russia could now seize any city in Ukraine. But we still don't see the 200,000 troops needed for a full-scale invasion," he was quoted as saying.&nbsp;

IN PICS | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/russia-ukraine-crisis-s-400-air-defence-system-iskander-missiles-in-belarus-see-satellite-images-451164">Russia-Ukraine crisis: S-400 air defence system, Iskander missiles in Belarus - see satellite images</a>

He said, "We don't see a political endgame here. If Putin seizes Kyiv, there will be full-scale war. The Ukrainian army forces will fight. There will be enormous resistance for all time. Why would you do that?"

"Ukraine is not going to say: 'Let’s join Russia.' This is understood. Unless, of course, Putin is totally delusional and has his own understanding of reality. There will be blood, sanctions. Nobody needs that kind of international war in Europe right now." Zagorodnyuk was quoted by the media portal.&nbsp;

On Sunday (February 6) itself, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could take military action against Ukraine "any day now".&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-warns-that-russia-could-take-military-action-against-ukraine-any-day-now-451104">US warns that Russia could take military action against Ukraine 'any day now'</a>

"We are in the window. Any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine, or it could be a couple of weeks from now, or Russia could choose to take the diplomatic path instead," Sullivan told the "Fox News Sunday" program.&nbsp;

Ahead of Sullivan's comments, two US officials said Russia has in place about 70 per cent of the combat power it believes it would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.&nbsp;

Amid calls to defuse tensions with diplomacy, further US troops arrived in Poland on Monday (February 7) following elite troops, the chain of command and other personnel at the weekend.&nbsp;

Washington is reinforcing its NATO allies in Eastern Europe amid a Russian military build-up on Ukraine's border.

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Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former defence minister of Ukraine has said that Russia has enough troops in place to seize Kyiv or another Ukrainian city, Guardian reported.

Andriy Zagorodnyuk, former defence minister of Ukraine has said that Russia has enough troops in place to seize Kyiv or another Ukrainian city, Guardian reported. However, Zagorodnyuk further added that Moscow might fall short in numbers for a full takeover and occupation of the country, the report published on February 6 added. In an interview with the media outlet, the former defence minister said that the situation is "pretty dire". "Russia could now seize any city in Ukraine. But we still don't see the 200,000 troops needed for a full-scale invasion," he was quoted as saying. IN PICS | Russia-Ukraine crisis: S-400 air defence system, Iskander missiles in Belarus - see satellite images He said, "We don't see a political endgame here. If Putin seizes Kyiv, there will be full-scale war. The Ukrainian army forces will fight. There will be enormous resistance for all time. Why would you do that?" "Ukraine is not going to say: 'Let’s join Russia.' This is understood. Unless, of course, Putin is totally delusional and has his own understanding of reality. There will be blood, sanctions. Nobody needs that kind of international war in Europe right now." Zagorodnyuk was quoted by the media portal. On Sunday (February 6) itself, White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin could take military action against Ukraine "any day now". ALSO READ | US warns that Russia could take military action against Ukraine 'any day now' "We are in the window. Any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine, or it could be a couple of weeks from now, or Russia could choose to take the diplomatic path instead," Sullivan told the "Fox News Sunday" program. Ahead of Sullivan's comments, two US officials said Russia has in place about 70 per cent of the combat power it believes it would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Amid calls to defuse tensions with diplomacy, further US troops arrived in Poland on Monday (February 7) following elite troops, the chain of command and other personnel at the weekend. Washington is reinforcing its NATO allies in Eastern Europe amid a Russian military build-up on Ukraine's border. ×

Ex-Ukraine defence chief says Russia could seize any city in Ukraine. But will it plan full-scale invasion?

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned on Sunday (February 6) that Russian President Vladimir Putin could take military action against Ukraine "any day now".&nbsp;

The border tensions between Russia and Ukraine have heightened in the last couple of weeks with both sides amassing massive troops. However, there are calls to tackle the situation with diplomacy.&nbsp;

The United States and other Western countries have expressed their fears over potential Russian incursion but Kremlin denies it. The escalating tensions have created a war-like situation that could impact not just Europe, but the Asian countries&nbsp;significantly.&nbsp;&nbsp;

"We are in the window. Any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine, or it could be a couple of weeks from now, or Russia could choose to take the diplomatic path instead," Sullivan told the "Fox News Sunday" program.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/not-sending-troops-to-start-war-with-russia-in-europe-says-usa-451046">'Not sending troops to start war' with Russia in Europe, says USA</a>

On Saturday (Feb 5), two US officials said Russia has in place about 70 per cent of the combat power it believes it would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.&nbsp;

Reports have suggested and also satellite images show that Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops near the border.&nbsp;

Moscow has said it is not planning an invasion but could take unspecified military action if its security demands are not met.&nbsp;

Those include a promise that NATO will never admit Ukraine, a demand the United States and the 30-nation Western security alliance have called unacceptable.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/chance-of-diplomatic-solution-higher-than-military-escalation-ukraine-presidency-451038">Chance of diplomatic solution 'higher' than military escalation: Ukraine presidency</a>

Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden held a telephone call with French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday, the White House said.&nbsp;

That call came ahead of a visit by Macron to Moscow on Monday, the culmination of days of French contacts with Russia and Ukraine to try to de-escalate tensions.&nbsp;

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White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned on Sunday (February 6) that Russian President Vladimir Putin could take military action against Ukraine "any day now".

White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan warned on Sunday (February 6) that Russian President Vladimir Putin could take military action against Ukraine "any day now". The border tensions between Russia and Ukraine have heightened in the last couple of weeks with both sides amassing massive troops. However, there are calls to tackle the situation with diplomacy. The United States and other Western countries have expressed their fears over potential Russian incursion but Kremlin denies it. The escalating tensions have created a war-like situation that could impact not just Europe, but the Asian countries significantly. "We are in the window. Any day now, Russia could take military action against Ukraine, or it could be a couple of weeks from now, or Russia could choose to take the diplomatic path instead," Sullivan told the "Fox News Sunday" program. ALSO READ | 'Not sending troops to start war' with Russia in Europe, says USA On Saturday (Feb 5), two US officials said Russia has in place about 70 per cent of the combat power it believes it would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Reports have suggested and also satellite images show that Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops near the border. Moscow has said it is not planning an invasion but could take unspecified military action if its security demands are not met. Those include a promise that NATO will never admit Ukraine, a demand the United States and the 30-nation Western security alliance have called unacceptable. ALSO READ | Chance of diplomatic solution 'higher' than military escalation: Ukraine presidency Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden held a telephone call with French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday, the White House said. That call came ahead of a visit by Macron to Moscow on Monday, the culmination of days of French contacts with Russia and Ukraine to try to de-escalate tensions. ×

US warns that Russia could take military action against Ukraine 'any day now'

Russia-Ukraine crisis: S-400 air defence system, Iskander missiles in Belarus - see satellite images

Ukraine presidency advisor Mykhailo Podolyak has said a diplomatic solution is more likely than an attack by&nbsp;Russia.

"An honest assessment of the situation suggests that the chance of finding a diplomatic solution for de-escalation is still substantially higher than the threat of further escalation," said Podolyak.

"For our intelligence service and our armed forces, this Russian activity comes as absolutely no surprise," he said.&nbsp;

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It comes after US officials said Russia has assembled at least 70 per cent of the military firepower it likely intends to have in place by mid-month to give President Vladimir Putin the option of launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Washington believes Russia may choose other options than a full-scale invasion, including a limited incursion, and does not believe President Vladimir Putin had made a final decision, the officials said.

Also see |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/what-weapons-has-ukraine-received-from-western-countries-to-resist-russias-army-449650">What weapons has Ukraine received from Western countries to resist Russia's army?</a>

Ukraine could suffer 5,000 to 25,000 troop casualties, while Russia's troop casualties could be between 3,000 and 10,000, and civilian casualties could range from 25,000 to 50,000, according to US estimates, the official said.

"How long will such Russian activity last and for what purpose is it maintained? Only the Kremlin can know the exact answer to this question," he said.&nbsp;

"The task of both Ukraine and our partners is to be prepared for any scenario, and we are fulfilling this task 100 percent."&nbsp;

Russia has denied plans to invade Ukraine but has deployed more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine's borders and says it could take unspecified military measures if its demands are not met, including a promise by NATO never to admit Ukraine.

US President Joe Biden has said he will not send US troops to Ukraine to fight a war. He has, however, ordered additional forces, including headquarters personnel and combat troops, to Poland and Romania to reassure those NATO allies that Washington would fulfill its treaty commitment to respond to Russian aggression against NATO territory. Ukraine is not a NATO member but receives US and allied military support and training. 
&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies)

Ukraine presidency advisor Mykhailo Podolyak has said a diplomatic solution is more likely than an attack by Russia. "An honest assessment of the situation suggests that the chance of finding a diplomatic solution for de-escalation is still substantially higher than the threat of further escalation," said Podolyak.

Ukraine presidency advisor Mykhailo Podolyak has said a diplomatic solution is more likely than an attack by Russia. "An honest assessment of the situation suggests that the chance of finding a diplomatic solution for de-escalation is still substantially higher than the threat of further escalation," said Podolyak. "For our intelligence service and our armed forces, this Russian activity comes as absolutely no surprise," he said. It comes after US officials said Russia has assembled at least 70 per cent of the military firepower it likely intends to have in place by mid-month to give President Vladimir Putin the option of launching a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Washington believes Russia may choose other options than a full-scale invasion, including a limited incursion, and does not believe President Vladimir Putin had made a final decision, the officials said. Also see | What weapons has Ukraine received from Western countries to resist Russia's army? Ukraine could suffer 5,000 to 25,000 troop casualties, while Russia's troop casualties could be between 3,000 and 10,000, and civilian casualties could range from 25,000 to 50,000, according to US estimates, the official said. "How long will such Russian activity last and for what purpose is it maintained? Only the Kremlin can know the exact answer to this question," he said. "The task of both Ukraine and our partners is to be prepared for any scenario, and we are fulfilling this task 100 percent." Russia has denied plans to invade Ukraine but has deployed more than 100,000 troops near Ukraine's borders and says it could take unspecified military measures if its demands are not met, including a promise by NATO never to admit Ukraine. US President Joe Biden has said he will not send US troops to Ukraine to fight a war. He has, however, ordered additional forces, including headquarters personnel and combat troops, to Poland and Romania to reassure those NATO allies that Washington would fulfill its treaty commitment to respond to Russian aggression against NATO territory. Ukraine is not a NATO member but receives US and allied military support and training. (With inputs from agencies)

Chance of diplomatic solution 'higher' than military escalation: Ukraine presidency

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