Explained | CSK playoff qualification scenario: It’s not all over for MS Dhoni’s men in IPL 2025

Chennai Super Kings (CSK) are down in IPL 2025, but not all out. The former five-time champions have endured a horrible run this season, winning just two of the nine contested matches played thus far, reeling at the bottom of the points table with just four points. However, despite that, they are still alive in the playoff race.

On Friday (Apr 25), CSK lost their seventh IPL 2025 game, this time against SunRisers Hyderabad (SRH) at home by five wickets. Considering that the CSK-SRH game was a do-or-die for both teams, CSK losing it makes it tighter for them to make it through to the last four, but mathematically, it’s still possible.

CSK has five matches remaining this season, and for them to give themselves any chance of doing the unthinkable, they should at least win all those matches with massive margins. That itself will not do it for them, as despite winning the remaining games, CSK can attain the maximum of 14 points, and this is where the problem lies. 

For them to punch their playoff ticket, not more than three teams should finish more than 14 points, with the possibility of that remaining minute - know-how.

As things stand, three teams – Gujarat Titans, Delhi Capitals and Royal Challengers Bengaluru- have secured 12 points each thus far, with every team having at least five games remaining. What mounts pressure on CSK’s qualification scenario is that the next three teams – Mumbai Indians, Punjab Kings and Lucknow Super Giants are reeling at ten points each, with at least five games pending. 

Should any of the top six teams win at least three of their remaining games, they will qualify, with CSK getting knocked out of the tournament. However, all this will go down the drain if CSK lose even just one of their five pending matches. 

Meanwhile, CSK’s next tie is against the Punjab Kings at Chepauk next Wednesday (Apr 30). 

Dhoni’s team will travel to Bengaluru and Kolkata, respectively, for their next two away matches before hosting the Rajasthan Royals in their final home game this season.

CSK’s last IPL 2025 match will be an away tie against tournament favourite Gujarat Titans on Sunday (May 18).