Opinion | Indo-Taliban Relations: Game of legitimacy, power and mutual trust

The students of Seminaries came as sweeping wave to conquer entire Afghanistan in just two weeks in the most unprecedented manner. They have claimed the power in erstwhile Gandhara Kingdom and are now negotiating with Afghan leaders to establish a legitimate government.

India being a big stakeholder in the development of Afghanistan must watch things carefully. So far Indian government has not opened its cards and is watching the developments carefully. Relations with the power centres of Afghanistan is of great importance for India and hence any development on this turf is to be watched carefully.

India had a diplomatic setback when despite of being the most important country in South Asia, it was kept away from Doha as well as Moscow talks. This affected the relationship and mutual understanding with Taliban. With China flexing its muscles now in central Asia, it becomes important for India to have a clear-cut policy towards Taliban.

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It had reverse aspect too. Having a fair relation with India is also on the cards for Taliban since they are struggling for legitimacy. Any action against the biggest democracy of the world will spoil their dreams. Further, they are cash-strapped and are unable to run a country. Countries are not run with the gun-slinging to the shoulder but by effective utilisation of resources and human capital. They will need not only financial but also the diplomatic support from the world. If they do not get it, their regime will be short-lived. In the current day situation, they are in power and with Taliban being in power corridors, India must look for three major aspects before opening its cards.

Taliban’s Proximity with Pakistan

First and foremost concern is the proximity of Taliban with Pakistan, ISI and their government. Taliban was raised on the platform of fanatic Islam & terrorism. It is a universal truth that Taliban is not only the creation of Pakistan but currently being run on ISI directives. It was further evident in recent events where ISI officials accompanied Taliban during search of Indian consulates in Herat & Kandahar. Pakistan and India have long-running issues, have fought four wars and thus, Pakistan would never like Taliban to be favouring India. It will also try to create unrest and promote terror activities in India using Taliban.

Notorious terrorists like Maulana Massoud Azhar and Hafiz Saeed have proximity with top Taliban leaders. There are high chances that present-day Taliban seminaries may become breeding grounds for terrorists causing disturbances in India. Although Taliban is desperate for legitimacy and their spokesperson has been reiterating that this will be a new chapter of their rule which will be devoid of terrorism, but India needs to watch their deeds first.

Indian investments & bilateral trade with Afghanistan

Over last few years, India has invested heavily in Afghanistan to the tune of about 3 billion USD. Nearly all of it was developmental assistance in the form of more than 40 projects. There is a long list including Salma Dam in Herat, Zaranj-Delaram highway, Afghan Parliament, restoration of Stor Palace & many more in the fields of power, transmission, health, sanitation as well as education. There were several other projects are currently in pipeline including Shahtoot Dam near Kabul.

Since Afghanistan is a landlocked country, India also established a supply chain network connecting Chabahar Port to Afghanistan. With Taliban in power, there are serious threats looming over the upcoming projects and India must be cautious of every Taliban move. Safety and continuation of Indian interests is a prime concern.

Further, India has been the biggest export market for Afghanistan and a major source of revenue for the hilly country. In year 2020-21, the bilateral trade was close to 1.7 billion USD which was a major source of revenue for Afghanistan and in case Indo-Taliban relations sour, it will be a financial catastrophe for government of Afghanistan.

Global Posturing

Any Indian reaction against Taliban led power centres in Afghanistan will also be dependent upon global posturing. Concurrently, most of the world has not yet recognised Taliban as a legitimate government and everyone is looking at each other.

There are serious allegations of Terrorism, human rights violation, ultra-fanatic attitude, lunatic, Anti-democracy, and being a puppet of Pakistan against Taliban and they must fulfil the expectations of the world first. While keeping India on its wrong side will be detrimental for Taliban, India also must see the flow of water in Kabul river and the global posturing before establishing relationship with Taliban.

Over last few months, India has been reluctant to open communication channels with Taliban owing to their attitude, proximity with Terror sympathisers and ultra-fanatic attitude. With them in power, there are mutual expectations from both sides.

While Taliban wants legitimacy and a better economy, India wants safety of its past, present, and future investments, humanitarian approach from Taliban and their changed attitude towards terror related activities.

Since Taliban is in dire need, they will have to prove themselves first before India makes a move. Taliban must prove to the world that they are no longer a terrorist organisation and are not dancing to the tunes of Pakistan ISI. They also must induce comfort levels to the world with relation to humanitarian approach.

(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer.)