Why is North India still dry despite monsoon advancing? WION Decodes reason for delay in good rain
&imwidth=600&imheight=450&format=webp&quality=medium "Why is North India still dry despite monsoon advancing? WION Decodes reason for delay in good rain")
Southwest monsoon rain
One of the reasons according to IMD is absence of low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal, which helps to draw moisture inland.
The Southwest monsoon arrived in India on June 4 with heavy rains lashing entire Kerala. The onset date of Southwest Monsoon in India is June 1, with rains first hitting Kerala and slowly advancing further. But this time it was three days behind its usual schedule, though this deviation is normal.
In fact the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) had forecast monsoon to hit Kerala as early as May 26, 2026, but weather systems later changed and Southwest Monsoon got delayed in India.
However, the Southwest Monsoon has covered large parts of the country but good rains have so far eluded North India. According to India Meteorological Department, the Northern Limit of Monsoon is advancing towards more parts of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand over the next three to four days.
But this has not translated into good rains so far. One of the reasons according to IMD is absence of low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal, which helps to draw moisture inland. Also the developing El Niño conditions and weak wind convergence have kept North India bereft of good rains till now.
Key factors causing the dry spell
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- Lack of Low-Pressure Systems that pull huge amounts of moisture from the ocean toward the core monsoon zone is missing
- Stalled Monsoon Circulation is another reason for lack of rains in North India. Though the monsoon boundary is technically advancing northward, it is dry lacking strong moisture-bearing winds that cause actual precipitation
- Weather observers also point to weak Somali Jets, weak Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity, dry westerly winds, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole, and developing El Niño conditions among factors leading to reduced rains in North India
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already predicted the 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole to be 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with an error margin of ± 4%.
Also a developing El Niño which is the abnormal warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean disrupts atmospheric circulation (the Walker Cell) and suppresses the southwest monsoon. The weather phenomenon results in below-normal rainfall, increased dry spells ("breaks"), and heightened agricultural and economic stress in affected countries.
