OpenAI projects $11.6 billion revenue for 2025, offers Thrive another investment opportunity

Thrive Capital is investing over $1 billion into OpenAI's ongoing $6.5 billion fundraising round, and it has an incentive no other investors are receiving: the possibility to invest an additional $1 billion next year at the same valuation if the AI firm hits a revenue target, sources familiar with the matter stated on Friday.

OpenAI is expecting its revenue to balloon next year to $11.6 billion, an estimated $3.7 billion in 2024, according to the insiders who requested anonymity. Losses are projected to be as high as $5 billion this year by their estimates, mostly due to their spending on computing power that may fluctuate, according to one of the sources.

The current funding round is structured as convertible debt and will close by the end of next week, probably valuing OpenAI at $150 billion, further cementing the private company's position as one of the world's most valuable firms.

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That valuation depends on the formation of a very tricky restructuring in that it must remove the cap from investment returns to the investors and, in addition, expel the control of its non-profit board, a plan first reported by Reuters. No timeline has been set for when the conversion might take place.

Thrive Capital, which also led OpenAI's previous funding round, is contributing $1.2 billion from a mix of its own fund and a special-purpose vehicle for smaller investors. The other investors in the new round include Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, and Khosla Ventures.

According to sources, the option for future investment was not granted to the others at the current price. OpenAI's valuation has soared quickly; if the trend continues next year, Thrive could find itself increasing its stake at a discounted rate.

Reuters was unable to establish the revenue target tied to Thrive's option, established by Joshua Kushner.

Thrive and OpenAI declined to comment.