US midterm elections face second polling hoax from fake pollsters

A second polling hoax has rocked the US midterm elections after a firm tracked by top media outlets and political campaigns admitted to completely fabricating its poll results. The case involving Wedgewood Polls threatens to weaken trust in independent pollsters in an already deeply polarised political climate. Political pundits have also warned that fast-evolving AI tools are making it easier to fake results.

The matter surfaced earlier this week when polling aggregator FiftyPlusOne contacted Wedgewood as part of an investigation into its surveys. In a statement on X, Wedgewood admitted that "most" of its data was made up. It said the firm had been experimenting to see how easily "an entirely fabricated polling firm" could gain traction and be taken seriously. Its X account has since been taken down.

The experiment appears to have worked. Wedgewood's data covered high-profile races across several states and was featured by major polling aggregators and news outlets, including The New York Times. In an editors' note, the Times said its poll tracker database had included 15 Wedgewood surveys released between June and October, all of which have now been removed.

Michigan Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow said a Wedgewood poll in late June showed her support in the single digits. She said donations dried up, volunteers were devastated and the media hounded her with calls to drop out. "It killed us," she wrote on X.

President Donald Trump reacted on Truth Social on Thursday, calling the Times "ARTIFICIAL" for using Wedgewood's data. He said the paper had relied on a company that admitted its published numbers were made up. "This is what I've had to deal with, right from the beginning!" added Trump, who has repeatedly accused pollsters of dishonesty.

Federal Communications Commission chairman Brendan Carr said there had been "a significant surge in entirely fake polls and suppression polls" aimed at interfering with the electoral process. He urged the media not to amplify such hoaxes or engage in "news distortions."

In August, another group, Median Strategies, admitted to fabricating poll results. According to the Los Angeles Times, it said it was created as a short-term social experiment.

On Thursday, FiftyPlusOne said in a blog post that it would no longer collect polling data from another firm, SoCal Strategies, after an investigation cast doubt on its authenticity. The firm could not be reached for comment, and its website, X account and Substack page appeared to have been taken offline.

FiftyPlusOne warned that it is becoming easier to run low-quality polls or fake them altogether. The American Association for Public Opinion Research said sophisticated AI tools were making it harder to spot phony pollsters and fabricated data.

"We are once again experiencing bad actors producing and distributing fabricated data and organisational information that undermines trust in public opinion and election polling," said association president Mary Losch. She added that such fraud should not be conflated with legitimate election polling.