Rare 'black swan' weather event likely sunk Bayesian superyacht, says expert

The Bayesian superyacht sank off the coast of Sicily on Monday morning, and some maritime experts believe that the "black swan" weather event caused it. The yacht was hit by a freak storm while it was anchored just off the shore near the port of Porticello. The yacht was carrying a crew of 10 people and 12 passengers and quickly sank.

Divers searching for the missing have reportedly found the bodies of five persons. The missing include UK tech entrepreneur Mike Lynch, his 18-year-old daughter Hannah Lynch, Morgan Stanley International chair, Jonathan Bloomer, his wife, Judy, and the Clifford Chance lawyer Chris Morvillo and his wife, Neda.

What is 'black swan' weather event?

The yacht was hit by a tornado-like waterspout, following which it quickly sank. This waterspout is a column of rotating air that forms over a water body. While extremely rare, it can wreak havoc and have a devastating impact. A similar black swan event was witnessed during Hurricane Katrina in 2005.

The water in this scenario carries extreme weight, Matthew Schanck, chairman of the Maritime Search and Rescue Council, told The Times. “And if the waterspout ends up dumping a load of that water on board the vessel, that’s going to cause significant damage.”

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Weather had been extremely bad overnight in the region and the yacht fell victim to one such water spout. As per meteorologists, all the factors were present for the formation of the water spout.

International Center for Waterspout Research said that on the day the yacht sank, 18 waterspouts developed off the coast of Italy.

“There was a big thunderstorm just to the north of Sicily, a lot of lightning activity, lot of heavy rain, very strong signature of what we call ‘cold cloud tops’ on the satellite pictures,” explained Dr Pete Inness, a meteorology lecturer at the University of Reading.

WATCH:CCTV footage captures the moment storm hit Superyacht 'Bayesian'

“All of those things would add up to a thunderstorm that could easily spawn a waterspout”.

He added that predicting a waterspout and its strength is hard and radars can't detect them because they don't last as long as tornadoes. Since the event occurred at night, the crew was also battling visibility issues.

Luca Mercalli, a leading Italian climatologist, told The Telegraph that the crew was probably not keeping a close watch on the weather or the radar. He says the weather radar has the ability to predict intense thunderstorms within 15 to 30 minutes.

However, Schanck believes that even that wouldn't have helped. He doubts the crew could have prepared for such a “high impact, low probability” weather event, especially when forecasts only predicted thunder.