Azerbaijan-Armenia: Back on the brink of war

Azerbaijan and Armenia are fighting over the Nagorno-Karabakh region. Even civilian facilities are under attack, and the Moscow-mediated peace deal is on the verge of collapse.

Is a war now inevitable between the two former Soviet Republics?

Nagorno-Karabakh has been laid to waste by the fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia. On paper, the two sides have agreed to a ceasefire, but the reality is far-off, with the fragile truce on the verge of collapsing.

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“We believed in the ceasefire. We believed that this will not happen, that is why they returned home. They wouldn't return if a ceasefire was not established. They were scared. Everybody was scared. Who would have wanted this?”, a Ganja resident, Vesile Mehmedova said.

On Friday, after 11 hours of marathon talks in Moscow - Azerbaijan and Armenia agreed to a humanitarian ceasefire. They were to exchange bodies and prisoners of war. But over the weekend - fighting erupted again.

Armenia called for Nagorno-Karabakh's independence, while Azerbaijan decried the lack of pressure on Armenia.

Both sides are trading accusations of air strikes, shelling, and targeting civilian facilities. Eye-witnesses in Karabakh reported blasts in the regional capital, which were allegedly carried out by Azerbaijan.

Baku has admitted launching air strikes on Armenian troops. But they deny firing the first shot. Armenia is accused of firing missiles at Ganja - the second largest city in Azerbaijan. Reportedly, Armenian missiles hit a residential building, killing 9 civilians and injuring more than 30.

The attack, Azerbaijan claims - shows the true face of Armenia.

“Ganja city is more than 100 kilometres away from the scene of military operations. What was the reason to attack the city? What was the reason to attack Mingechevir city of Azerbaijan? There is no military targets. It doesn't have the necessity, in no way it can be justified from the military necessity. But what we see here is just Armenia's purpose to kill civilians”, Azerbaijan's presidential aide, Hikmet Hajiyev said.

Armenia has rejected these allegations, but the evidence including CCTV footage is stacked up against them.

Nearly 500 lives have been lost in the fight so far, including 60 civilians. The ceasefire was supposed to offer both sides some breathing space. Instead, the fighting has intensified.

So what’s next in Nagorno-Karabakh?

Russia was hailed as the last hope. But the peace effort is teetering.

Turkey is blaming Russia for it, asking Moscow to exert more pressure on Armenia. Increased foreign meddling has only escalated the situation until now. The talks in Moscow offered a brief window of resolution. But in 48 hours, that window has been firmly shut.

Azerbaijan and Armenia are back on the brink of war.