BRICS’s six new members to have GDP share of just 11 pc: Report

The six new members of the five-member BRICS grouping of emerging economies would have a combined GDP share of barely 11 per cent as of January, with Saudi Arabia contributing the most at 4 per cent, according to an analysis.

According to an SBI Research analysis, the proposed membership of Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates will increase the five-member BRICS—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, grouping’s share of the global GDP to 30 per cent from the current 26 per cent and its population share to 46 per cent.

The decision for expansion was announced at the last BRICS summit in Johannesburg, which is to be effective on January 1, 2024.

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China’s share of the BRICS’ GDP currently stands at 70 per cent, but it will soon drop to 62 per cent. India currently provides 13 per cent, but that share will soon drop to 12 per cent. South Africa produces just 2 per cent, Brazil gives 7 per cent, and Russia contributes 8 per cent, totalling 26 per cent of the world’s economic output.

Brazil’s stake will remain unchanged following the expansion, the study added without providing a justification, while South Africa’s share will decrease by 50 per cent to 1 per cent and Russia’s share by 7 per cent.

According to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economist at State Bank of India, of these six economies, the UAE is India’s largest trading partner with bilateral trade worth Rs 6,81,259 crore ($82 billion) in FY23. Saudi Arabia is second with Rs 4,23,834 crore ($51 billion), Egypt is third with Rs 48,792 crore ($5 billion), Argentina is fourth with Rs 39,100 crore ($4 billion), Iran is fifth with Rs 18,680 crore ($2 billion), and Ethiopia is sixth with Rs 5,154 crore ($623 million).

Saudi Arabia will have the largest economy among the new members, contributing 4 per cent of the group’s GDP. Argentina, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Iran will each contribute 2 per cent, while Ethiopia’s entry will have essentially no effect on the economy.

According to the data provided, the Saudi economy was approximately $1.1 trillion in 2022 (it was already a G20 member), Argentina’s was $632 billion, the UAE’s was $507 billion, Egypt’s was $477 billion, Iran’s was $388 billion, and Ethiopia’s was $127 billion.

According to Ghosh’s prediction in the report, the BRICS+6 economies'combined GDP will increase from the existing BRICS by 11 per cent, or 4 per cent of the global GDP in 2022, and will contribute to the BRICS+6’s share reaching 30 per cent.

Even with the new member, China ($18.1 trillion in 2022) and India ($3.75 trillion) will still account for 74 per cent of the bloc’s total GDP, down from 83 per cent of the $26.2 trillion pre-expansion economy.

In 2022, the Russian economy had a value of $2.2 trillion, compared to Brazil’s $1.8 trillion and South Africa’s $468 billion.

Currently, the BRICS+6 and G20 (Group of 20 largest economies) have respective population shares of 3.7 billion and 5.1 billion, $29.2 trillion and $70.4 trillion in terms of GDP, and $5.5 trillion and $9.4 trillion in terms of foreign exchange reserves.

40 per cent of the world’s population lives in the five countries, which together account for 26 per cent of the world’s GDP. However, with the addition of the six additional members (BRICS+6), their GDP share will increase to 30 per cent and their population share to 46 per cent.

According to the report, the biggest effect will be on the global oil production share, which would rise from 18 to 40 per cent, while their oil consumption portion will climb from 27 to 36 per cent.

The statement added that their portion of the world’s FX reserves would climb by 600 basis points to 45 per cent and that their shares in global merchandise trade and services trade would both expand from 20 per cent to 25 per cent and 11 per cent to 15 per cent, respectively.

The oil equations could be a game changer for the payment system and price discovery due to the significant increase in the share of oil commerce; Saudi Arabia has the second largest oil reserves behind Russia.

(With inputs from PTI)

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