Why West Asia tensions and Russian supply loss mean higher US fuel bills

Ahead of next month's US midterm elections, President Donald Trump has increasingly blamed Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries for surging domestic energy prices, which are causing him political trouble. Analysts say, however, that the main driver of higher fuel prices remains the US-Iran war. Over the past 18 months, Ukraine has stepped up drone attacks on Russia's energy industry, aiming to cut Kremlin revenues and weaken its ability to fund the war. The strikes have hit "mostly refineries", economist Julien Mathonniere of Energy Intelligence told news agency AFP. According to the International Energy Agency, a Russian refinery was hit on average every three days in the first eight months of the year.

Viktor Kurilov, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said Russia's net diesel exports fell by about 80 per cent year on year in the third quarter of 2026, from roughly 1.05 million barrels per day to 200,000. Moscow responded to the domestic supply disruption by banning diesel exports from July until the end of October.

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And what’s Trump's concern

Trump has repeatedly condemned the refinery attacks, saying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky disobeyed his orders to stop them. He has not commented on the recent intensification of Russian strikes on Ukraine, which have caused a surge in civilian casualties.

His frustration comes as Republicans face dim prospects in the November midterms, partly because of soaring fuel costs. The American Automobile Association said US pump prices for diesel hit a record $6.53 per gallon at the end of September, up from $3.75 before the war. Rising energy prices are also feeding inflation across the economy.

Mathonniere said Ukraine's strikes explain about one-third of a global diesel shortfall now estimated at 1.7 to 1.8 million barrels per day. But James Henderson of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies told AFP that Kyiv's earlier drone strikes had minimal impact on global product prices before the West Asia crisis.

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Gulf energy exports have plunged since US-Israeli strikes on Iran began in February, prompting Tehran to choke off the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for oil and gas. Maritime freight costs have soared, and major West Asia refining capacity has been hit, adding further upward pressure on oil prices.

Prospects before the midterms

Relations between Kyiv and Washington worsened this month after Trump announced a controversial agreement with Moscow to lift certain sanctions and allow Russian diesel imports, supposedly to ease prices. On Wednesday (Oct 21), he said he believed an end to the war could be closer than ever, as the Kremlin said it was willing to restart trilateral talks with Kyiv and Washington next month.

For now, the strikes continue. "There's not much that can be done in the very short term to lower diesel prices," said Rystad Energy analyst Jorge Leon. Even a Russia-Ukraine settlement or an energy ceasefire "wouldn't really move the needle massively" for the midterms, he added, since repairs take time and West Asia hostilities keep pushing prices higher.