Why Trump’s Greenland ploy is both a gift and a headache for the Kremlin

For decades, Moscow has sought to exploit and deepen rifts between the United States and Europe, believing that a divided West would be less capable of resisting Russian ambitions. Undermining transatlantic unity has been a cornerstone of Kremlin strategy, pursued through disinformation campaigns, covert sabotage, and sustained political pressure on Western institutions.

At the center of these efforts sits NATO, the military alliance that for 80 years has constrained Russia’s ability to project power across Europe. The Kremlin has long portrayed NATO expansion as a threat, a narrative used to rationalize its full-scale invasion of Ukraine nearly four years ago. Against that backdrop, the recent turmoil triggered by US President Donald Trump’s overtures toward Greenland has drawn intense interest in Moscow. The idea that NATO could fracture, not over war or defense spending, but over the status of a Danish territory, has been met with visible fascination, and even delight, among Russian commentators.

European officials have openly acknowledged the geopolitical implications. “China and Russia must be enjoying this,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas remarked after Trump warned European allies with sweeping tariffs if they opposed US control of Greenland. Publicly, both Russia and China deny harboring ambitions toward Greenland, and Denmark’s military has dismissed any immediate threat from the east. Yet Russian state television has been less restrained, with pro-Kremlin analysts hailing Trump’s actions as a severe blow to NATO cohesion and a strategic gift to Moscow.

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From a Western perspective, the fear is straightforward: if transatlantic unity erodes, military and financial backing for Ukraine could weaken, handing Russia a decisive advantage on the battlefield. That concern may well be justified.

Still, Moscow’s celebrations remain muted. Official Kremlin reactions have been cautious, even critical. Spokesman Dmitry Peskov accused Trump of acting outside international law, an ironic rebuke from a government frequently accused of violating those same norms.

Beyond public rhetoric, Russian strategists may see risks as well as opportunities. Expanded US influence in Greenland would strengthen Washington’s position in the Arctic, a region where Moscow has invested heavily and seeks dominance. More broadly, the Kremlin appears unsettled by what it perceives as an erratic and unconstrained American foreign policy. In a recent address, President Vladimir Putin criticized what he described as a global trend toward unilateral action, warning that force was increasingly replacing diplomacy, comments widely interpreted as a veiled critique of Washington, despite Russia’s own record.

Compounding Moscow’s unease is the steady erosion of its global partnerships. The fall of Syria’s Russian-backed leader Bashar al-Assad dealt a major blow. Iran, another key ally, has endured US and Israeli strikes and faces renewed instability. Venezuela’s president Nicolás Maduro, long supported by Moscow, was dramatically detained by US forces earlier this month, further highlighting Russia’s diminishing influence.

Speculation that Cuba could be next on Washington’s list of pressure targets only deepens the sense of vulnerability in Moscow. For years, the Kremlin has dismissed the post–World War II international order as a Western construct designed to preserve American dominance. Russia has openly challenged the principle that borders cannot be changed by force and argued instead for a world governed by great-power spheres of influence.

Ironically, Washington’s recent rhetoric appears to echo parts of that worldview, a theoretical win for Moscow. Yet any satisfaction is tempered by anxiety over the unpredictability of US power. Dealing with a volatile Trump administration may prove more difficult for the Kremlin than confronting a consistent, rules-based adversary. As one Russian tabloid bluntly put it, likening global politics to an asylum: the real fear is not just chaos—but who is now in charge of it.