French polls produce hung parliament: Five likely scenarios in the offing
Authored By Vikrant Singh
Published: Jul 09, 2024, 06:41 IST | Updated: Jul 09, 2024, 06:41 IST
French parliamentary elections
France's Parliamentary elections are over and they have resulted in a hung parliament. The 577-seat house is now divided into three major blocs: The New Popular Front (NFP) – a broad alliance of the hard-left France Unbowed party, joined by Socialists, Greens and Communists – with 182 seats, President Emmanuel Macron's Centrist bloc with 168 seats and the right-wing National Rally (Rassemblement National, or RN) with 143 seats. No bloc could reach the majority mark of 289, leading to a hung parliament.
So, what next? Here we look at 7 possible scenarios in the offing.
- Cohabitation with NFP: Macron could elect a prime minister from the NFP bloc, entering a period of cohabitation where the PM and president are from rival parties.
- Provisional government: PM Attal announced after the defeat that he would tender his resignation but backed out when insisted by Macron for the sake of the "stability of the country." Now, he will lead the provisional government for an indefinite period of time. However, a no-confidence motion can cripple his hold over power in no time.
- Coalition: This is a highly unlikely scenario where Macron's centrist party joins forces with the NFP bloc and elects a PM with consensus.
- A minority government: Any bloc out of the three can form a minority government with tacit support from rival candidates. But here's the catch: One no-confidence motion will be enough to puncture thisgovernment.
- Macron resigns: This is another highly unlikely scenario where Macron takes responsibility for the mess and stands down.
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Additionally, a technocratic government can also be formed theoretically, where non-partisan ministers—experts and technocrats—are called in to run the government's daily businesses.
As radical as the idea may sound, it became a reality back in 2021 in Italy when Mario Draghi rose to power. But a big drawback of such governments is that they are short-lived.
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(With inputs from agencies)