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Former Pakistan prime minister, Nawaz Sharif, a one-time favourite and multiple-time rival of the country's powerful military, has arrived in Pakistan after a four-year self-imposed exile. Sharif's return aims to lead his Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) PML-N political party in the delayed general elections and potentially secure an unprecedented fourth term. 

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Notably, for none of the past three of his tenures, was Sharif able to complete a full five-year tenure amid the military-intelligence nexus' powerful interference. 

When will Nawaz Sharif arrive in Pakistan?

Sharif, after a brief stopover in Saudi Arabia, is currently in Dubai, with plans to arrive in Pakistan aboard a chartered plane. 

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He arrived in Lahore on Saturday (Oct 21) and is expected to address a party rally at Minar-e-Pakistan, the monument where Pakistan's existence was formally envisioned during British colonial rule. 

Having secured preventive bail in two corruption cases, Nawaz is less likely to be arrested upon his arrival in Islamabad.

Also watch | Nawaz Sharif granted bail, his arrest warrants suspended

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Nawaz Sharif's seven-year jail term was suspended in 2019 on medical grounds. Since then, Sharif has remained in self-imposed exile in the United Kingdom. 

The seasoned politician, once described by assassinated Pakistan PM Benazir Bhutto as 'political pawn' to Pakistan's most consequential dictator General Zia ul Haq, faces numerous legal and political challenges.

Nawaz Sharif may not be arrested but there is a catch

While supporters argue that Sharif was convicted in "fake" corruption cases and believe in a reversal of his convictions, legal experts point out that protective bail is typically for accused individuals, not convicts. 

Sharif's major challenge arises from his disqualification by the Supreme Court in 2017, which his party disputes. 

Also read | To coup or not coup: Pakistan Army’s options after Imran Khan’s 'mini-intifada'

Besides, Sharif also faces strong political competition, notably from the currently arrested former PM Imran Khan, and his party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf.

The hand of 'establishment' on Nawaz Sharif's shoulder?

Sharif, despite his convictions, retains popularity among his followers, who hope his presence during the campaign will boost the party's prospects in the general elections.

However, Sharif's ultimate test lies in securing the approval of the powerful establishment, particularly the Pakistan Army. 

His recent demand for action against former army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa and former ISI chief Lt. General Faiz Hameed surprised many. 

While Sharif's intentions remain unclear, he is likely to have reached an "understanding" within the influential circles of establishment -- Pakistan's military-intelligence nexus -- of the nuclear-armed nation in the middle of an economic crisis and political uncertainty.

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