US midterm elections: Mail-in ballots can be misleading. But that doesn't imply voter fraud

Polls opened in several US states Tuesday morning with millions of voters preparing to vote. Polling began at 6 am local time in New York, Connecticut, New Jersey, Virginia and parts of Indiana and Kentucky. It begins in other states at different times, with results expected to start coming through by evening. More than 58 million people have already cast their ballots in early voting in person and by mail.

Mail-in voting is when a ballot is sent to a voter by postal mail to be completed at home and returned by mail, drop box, or in person, rather than cast at a polling place. Over the past few years, the Trump administration has made it appear to be the villain in its attempt to claim voter fraud. It has cast doubt on the method where the mail ballot delivery is done through the US Postal Service. This is even though the president himself voted by mail earlier this year.

According to the American Bar Association, voter fraud is extremely rare, unlike what Trump claims. An analysis by Associated Press found that of the more than 25 million votes cast in six swing states in the 2020 election, fewer than 475 potential voter fraud cases were identified, and they weren't confirmed to have happened for sure either.

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Experts say mail-in ballots should not be made out to be a problem as they go through several layers of security. However, they can be misleading at times, but that doesn't imply fraudulent activity.

Red Mirage and Blue Shift

In states where in-person votes are processed first, initial returns skew heavily towards Republican candidates. As mail-in ballots are gradually added over the following days, the lead shrinks or flips towards Democratic candidates. Similarly, a Blue mirage is observed n states where mail-in ballots are counted first. Democrats might end up registering a victory by only a small margin or, in some cases, Republicans might go on to register big wins when Election Day votes are counted.

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This is because Democrats have traditionally dominated mail-in voting. This makes it appear like the Republicans are in the lead as votes are reported on Election Day. But when the Democratic mail votes are added, the results pivot towards Blue. The opposite happens when mail-in ballots are counted first.

Mail-in ballots delay

In certain states, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, election officials are legally prohibited from processing mail-in ballots until the morning of Election Day. Counting millions of paper ballots takes days, meaning in-person Election Day votes are reported first, while mail ballots lag behind. In other states, such as Florida and Georgia, mail ballots are counted weeks before Election Day. Consequently, mail-in results are uploaded almost immediately when polls close, causing an early surge before in-person votes are added.

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Processing mail-in ballots

Counting these votes also takes time. It involves multi-step physical verification. The signature is verified against state databases. The outer and secrecy envelopes are opened manually. The ballot papers are flattened and sorted for high-speed scanners. "Curing" processes, where election workers must contact voters to fix signature mismatches or missing dates, extend counts well past Election Day.

In states like Arizona and California, where heavy mail-in voting occurs, hundreds of thousands of mail ballots are dropped off in person at polling locations on Election Day. These "late early" ballots cannot be verified until after polls close, taking several days to tabulate.

In conclusion, the delay and shifting trends in no way suggest that voter fraud is happening through mail-in ballots. The process is such that patterns shift and do not reflect sudden changes in voting behaviour or fraud.