From ‘India out’ to ‘China out’? Muizzu makes U-turn as PM Modi offers incentives

After showing a strong pro-China tilt in the past, President of the Maldives, Mohamed Muizzu, seems to have made an about turn as he praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling him a “wonderful person”. Muizzu who came to power riding on an ‘India Out’ campaign, followed by his cabinet colleagues making derogatory remarks against PM Modi, showed a significant shift in the geopolitical dynamics of the Global South.

The two leaders held talks to repair bilateral ties, strengthening cooperation in trade, defence, and infrastructure.

After coming to power by vowing to reduce Indian influence and build closer ties with China, and even going on first state visit to Beijing, Muizzu hailed India as a “trusted friend” and rolled out the red carpet for PM Modi.

“He is a wonderful person who is very fond of building relationships between India’s neighbours. The Maldives and India have a very good relationship that goes back centuries, and with PM Modi’s leadership, cooperation between the two governments is going to be even more prosperous in the days ahead,” Muizzu said on Saturday, the last day of PM Modi’s trip.

Why the Muizzu U-turn?

There may be several reasons for the shift in stance? The Maldivian economy is under severe stress with a substantial budget deficit and dwindling foreign reserves, and the India’s support is pivotal to stabilise finances.

Although Maldives still owes China large debts, New Delhi has emerged as a key partner to avoid potential economic default.

PM Modi announced a fresh $ 565 million line of credit (LoC) for the Maldives and signed an agreement to reduce its annual debt repayment burden by 40%.

On its part, India maintained steady engagement as PM Modi was the first world leader to congratulate Muizzu after his election victory. In 2019, India had extended an $800 million Line of Credit (LoC) to the Maldives during the pro-India Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) government.

“We all have seen how India has helped the Maldives in the past, and nobody will doubt how India will be a very crucial partner going forward,” Muizzu said.

For Male, India remains indispensable for trade, connectivity, and tourism. While China’s support remains, India’s financial and developmental assistance have influenced Muizzu’s recalibration.

PM Modi attended the 60th anniversary celebrations of the independence of Maldives as the ‘Guest of Honour’ and was also the first foreign leader at the level of Head of State or Government to be hosted by President Muizzu.

‘India looks forward to deepening partnership with Maldives’

PM Modi on Saturday highlighted the “bipartisan support” within the island nation for the “strong and time-tested” friendship with India. Muizzu and Modi inaugurated a new building of the Maldives’ Ministry of Defence in Malé, besides other jointly executed infrastructure projects.

In his address at the state banquet hosted for Modi, Muizzu said India has long stood as the Maldives’ “closest and most trusted partner”.

In a post on X on Saturday evening, Muizzu thanked the Prime Minister for what he called a “defining visit” that “sets a clear path” for India-Maldives relations.

The political opposition in the Maldives welcomed the Muizzu government’s shift in its India policy. Opposition leader Abdulla Shahid said he conveyed to Prime Minister Modi that “while governments may change, the Maldivian people’s appreciation for India’s friendship remains constant.”

PM Modi also reiterated India’s commitment to support Maldives and its people, as per its requirements and priorities, and for the peace, progress and prosperity of the Indian Ocean region.

Both nations called for further strengthening defence and maritime security cooperation and highlighted their collaboration under the Colombo Security Conclave.

PM Modi also underscored that the proposed Free Trade Agreement and the Bilateral Investment Treaty would open new opportunities for both sides.

India and the Maldives signed six MOUs during PM Narendra Modi’s visit to the country in the fields of fisheries and aquaculture, meteorology, digital public infrastructure, UPI, Indian pharmacopoeia, and concessional Line of Credit.