Green Cards, OPT, H-1B: How US midterms 2026 could reshape Indian immigration - Explained

As Americans vote on November 3, the result of the poll in Washington may have consequences for India’s immigrant and student community. In the recent past, this single largest group has been caught in US employment-based backlogs and campus work-authorisation debates. The Indian immigration file in the US Congress mainly hovers around fixing the employment-based green card backlog, eliminating per-country caps, and protecting high-skilled H-1B professionals. Their outcomes have historically stalled due to political gridlock, chamber disagreements, or competing enforcement priorities amid several major pieces of legislation.

Green cards: the core bottleneck

Immigration reform has historically proven difficult, and prospects for structural reform may remain dim for the next two years if Republicans retain power in the midterm elections. Over 80 per cent of people trapped in the employment-based green card backlog are Indian nationals. In response, lawmakers are separately debating a points-based selection system to replace per-country caps, though removing those caps would not automatically clear the existing backlog.

The issue got more complicated after the Trump administration moved to require some green card applicants to return to their home countries and wait there for processing, despite years of potential backlog delays. This policy shift has been criticised by congressional Democrats but cannot be reversed without legislative or electoral leverage.

H-1B and employment-based pathways

Indian professionals face concerns over higher salary thresholds for skilled-worker visas, a possible suspension of H-1B issuance, and changes to employment-based green card eligibility. The Trump administration has already proposed a $100,000 H-1B petition fee and suspended PERM green card certifications for eight technology companies. These moves have become flashpoints in midterm campaigns as Indians typically secure over 70 per cent of annual approved H-1B visas, meaning any congressional tightening disproportionately strikes India’s tech workforce.

Also read: US midterm elections 2026: Postal ballots and voter disenfranchisement — A key battle for Donald Trump

Student visas and OPT: the campus fight

The Optional Practical Training programme (OPT), which lets F-1 students work after graduation, has become a parallel battleground. Congressman Riley Moore has formally requested the Department of Homeland Security to end OPT, STEM-OPT and CPT. Moore also argued that these work programmes were never authorised by Congress, while Senator Jim Banks has separately pushed the administration to remove OPT outright, observing that around 500,000 foreign workers currently hold OPT status, almost rivalling the H-1B population.

Countering this, a bipartisan group that also includes Indian-American Representative Raja Krishnamoorthi has come up with the Keep Innovators in America Act to codify OPT into law and prevent abrupt policy shifts. As of the most recent tracking, OPT remains active and unchanged, though it exists on executive authority rather than statute, meaning it could be altered administratively without a congressional vote. Nearly 30 per cent of the roughly 331,000 Indian students in the US during 2023–24 were on OPT, underscoring the stakes.

If Republicans retain the House and gain Senate seats in the midterm elections in 2026, restrictionist bills on H-1B and OPT gain a friendlier floor, even as the administration’s existing executive actions continue facing court challenges. If Democrats flip the House, oversight hearings on PERM suspensions and green card processing intensify, and bills like the Keep Innovators in America Act gain a better chance of advancing, though a divided Congress would likely produce gridlock rather than sweeping reform either way.