'Dragon-Elephant tango': Will PM Modi's China visit change the Indo-Pacific balance?

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has begun a four-day trip that could significantly shape India’s role in Asia’s evolving power dynamics. His visit includes talks in Japan followed by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in China, where he will meet global leaders such as Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin. This marks Modi’s first trip to China since the Galwan clashes in 2019. Analysts say the meetings could reset dialogue between the two Asian giants, even as deep mistrust lingers.

Warming words after years of tension

China has struck a more conciliatory tone in recent weeks. During a visit to Delhi, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi admitted, “the setbacks that we faced in the last few years were not in our interest,” and called for India and China to see each other as “partners” rather than “adversaries or threats.” Modi said, “respect for each other’s interests and sensitiveness,” and highlighted “steady progress” in ties. Both sides have agreed on confidence-building measures, including restoring direct flights, easing visas, and reviving border trade.

The border dispute still looms large

Despite gestures of goodwill, the Line of Actual Control (LAC) remains the core obstacle. The border has been a flashpoint since the 1962 war, and the deadly 2020 skirmishes have left scars. India insists on restoring the peace that existed before the clashes, while China prefers to move forward with broader ties regardless of the border issue. Talks have resumed to manage disputes and reduce the risk of fresh confrontations, but any lasting solution will require compromise at the highest levels.

Economic stakes and trade dependency

Trade is booming but uneven. India’s deficit with China has widened to nearly $100 billion, with New Delhi relying heavily on Chinese imports of electronics and raw materials. Beijing has hinted it may open its markets to more Indian goods, especially as both nations face new tariffs from the United States. Chinese officials have made clear they want closer trade ties to “soften the blow” of US tariffs, while India hopes to reduce its dependence on Beijing without stunting its economic growth.

The Indo-Pacific rivalry

Beyond economics, the bigger question is geopolitical. India’s growing role in the Quad with the US, Japan, and Australia is seen in Beijing as a challenge to its influence. China’s offer of partnership may be partly aimed at weakening this alliance and redirecting New Delhi away from Washington’s orbit. At the same time, India continues to push its policy of “strategic autonomy,” engaging with multiple powers but avoiding binding commitments. This means any alignment with China is likely to remain limited and tactical rather than a fundamental shift.

US tariffs pushing India and China together

The Trump administration’s steep tariffs on Indian goods have pushed New Delhi to look for alternative partners. China has been quick to seize the moment, signalling solidarity with India against what it calls “unilateral bullying acts.” Beijing’s willingness to stand with India on trade may temporarily ease tensions, but the structural rivalry over borders, security, and regional influence still runs deep.

A tactical thaw, not a lasting reset

The Modi–Xi meeting is less about friendship and more about necessity. Both countries see value in reducing friction. China wants stability while it manages other global flashpoints, and India seeks breathing space as it juggles US pressure and domestic growth goals.