Russia rehearsing attacking satellites in space, experts warn after Cosmos 2612-X36 encounter

A Russian satellite came dangerously close to a Finnish satellite last month, and a military space specialist thinks the manoeuvre was part of practising a real attack in space. The Finnish company ICEYE operates X36, which provides radar imagery to governments and militaries in the West, including Ukraine. US Under Secretary of State Thomas DiNanno wrote in a post on X that Russia's Cosmos 2612 military satellite made dangerous manoeuvres in mid-October, and that it was not an accident.

"It was intentionally manoeuvring dangerously close to a commercial satellite," he noted. Three other space specialists said the encounter was one of the closest known approaches by a Russian military spacecraft to a commercial satellite in low-altitude orbit. Greg Gillinger, a senior space analyst at Integrity ISR, told Reuters that it appears to be a "dress rehearsal for a larger attack."

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Threat from Russia?

"This is the most aggressive posture I’ve seen Russia take in terms of threatening satellites from another nation," Gillinger said. The Finnish satellite also provides imagery to Ukraine, and Moscow has been at war with the country for over four years now. It has clearly said that any commercial Western satellites helping Ukraine could be targeted.

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Now there are fears that Russia could target more commercial satellites in the future, including those operated by SpaceX. Gillinger believes that Cosmos 2612 could be testing kinetic attack-related capability. If it were gathering intelligence or causing electronic interference, it would not have needed to get this close to X36.

Four Russian satellites positioned around X36

According to US space intelligence firm Slingshot Aerospace, Cosmos 2612 is categorised as a servicing inspection satellite. In April, Russia launched six military satellites and positioned four of them near X36 in May. Chief Executive of ICEYE, Rafal Modrzewski, told Reuters that it moved its satellite away, but Russia continued to bring its satellites closer to it.

Then in October, Cosmos 2612 was placed hundreds of kilometres behind X36. It started getting closer and came within half a kilometre of it. Some analysts think this distance could also have been just a few hundred metres before moving away.

Meanwhile, two sibling Russian satellites are reportedly making their way towards the orbital path of another ICEYE spacecraft, X37, another US-registered satellite, Gillinger said.

Finland has been strengthening its defences on the ground as well. It warned that Russia was using "hybrid war" tactics against it, and had launched massive cyberattacks and was attacking it with migration, helping around 1,300 people from Syria, Iraq and Yemen cross over it in 2023. Meanwhile, President Vladimir Putin maintains that he is not going to attack Finland.

The report has given momentum to fears that countries are getting ready to take their differences into space. US earlier this year announced that it had deployed weapons in space, while Russia has also reportedly placed a space weapon that could threaten national security satellites.