Gravitas | US attack could trigger WW III: Russian planes in Tehran, Israeli jets, US warships in action

As elections in Israel and America draw closer, tensions in West Asia are rising again. The USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group, with 10,000 troops is heading towards the region. With Tehran too prepared for a large-scale retaliation, speculation is growing over the possibility of US and Israel striking Iran as early as this weekend. The first indication came earlier this week as US Secretary of War Pete Hegseth visited Israel and met Netanyahu on Monday. IDF reportedly simulated new strikes on Iran.

According to reports, dozens of fighter jets flew more than 800 miles from Israel, passed through Syrian and Iraqi airspace and turned around at Iran's border. This may also have been a bid to provoke Iran into firing on the jets, thereby creating pretext for an Israeli strike. According to reports, US and Israel are preparing to resume attacks on Iran even before the Israeli general election, scheduled on October 27.

This is likely to be a short but intense operation. Potential targets include Iran's energy infrastructure, nuclear facilities and missile and drone stockpiles. But what is the rationale behind this? Well, according to some observers, this could be used as a pretext to delay the Israeli elections as Netanyahu seeks to exploit the Iran war to his advantage. This comes as he is facing a tough bid for re-election with opinion polls showing Yashar party chief Gadi Eisenkot, as the more preferred prime ministerial choice.

For Trump too, the stakes are high. Ahead of the midterm polls on November 3, his popularity ratings are at a historic low. Multiple opinion polls have predicted a majority for Democrats in the US House of Representatives as well as the Senate. With Iran refusing to bend under pressure, the thinking in the US camp seems to be that one more heavy attack will push Tehran's economy over the edge and force it to negotiate for ending the war. Amid this, Trump has also hinted at a fresh wave of strikes on Iran.

In another indication of impending hostilities, several Russian military aircraft have reportedly landed in Iran, as Moscow prepares to evacuate personnel from the Bushehr nuclear power plant. The first time Russia did so was on February 28, when the Iran war started. Amid heightened tensions, the US has ordered the departure of non-emergency employees and their families from Saudi Arabia and has also reportedly planned to withdraw staff from other missions in the region. Additionally, there has reportedly been a surge in the departure of wealthy expatriates, diplomats and members of royal families from West Asia in the last few days.

On its part, Tehran has issued a terse warning. The IRGC has threatened to launch a ground invasion targeting its West Asian neighbours if the US and Israel resume strikes. And this is not all. Iran has threatened to target oil facilities, undersea cables, data centres, pipelines, airports and other civilian infrastructure in the region. Now, this warning cannot be understated. During the initial phase of the war, Iran inflicted significant damage on US military bases across the region with its barrage of missile and drone attacks, costing the US billions. According to Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the US has spent over 11 billion US dollars solely on missile defence for Israel in the last three years.

A day earlier, the IRGC claimed to have hit four vessels allegedly involved in illegal oil transfers, claiming that three more vessels collided with mines near the Strait of Hormuz. It warned the US that continued provocations would lead to a wider response against its regional bases. According to a report, Iran is rebuilding an underground airbase called Eagle 44, which can shelter fighter aircraft, drones and ballistic missiles. Located in Hormozgan province, it sits on the foothills of the Zagros Mountains. Unveiled in 2023, it has been described by Iranian state media as one of the most important air bases, with fighter jets equipped with long-range cruise missiles. While this base was repeatedly struck this year, the report cited satellite imagery to claim fresh construction at the site.

The other underlying factor is the Houthis, who have been on the offensive. Apart from seizing considerable territory in Yemen, the Iran-backed group has directly attacked Saudi Arabia's airports, oil facilities and even its defence ministry headquarters. As of now, France and Britain have deployed fighter jets to Saudi Arabia to help shield it from Houthi attacks. No country is ready to carry out offensive action against the Houthis in Yemen. Even Türkiye and Pakistan, which signed the Mecca Pact, have refrained from sending troops into Yemen.

Now, without giving any evidence, Netanyahu again claimed that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons. Citing this, he instructed Israel's military and intelligence agencies to overthrow the Iranian government. According to Israel's Channel 13, though, Israeli military chief Eyal Zamir said that he does not see an operational need to strike Iran before the general election.

Amid this, the mood on the streets of Tehran remains pensive. Some people expressed concerns that potential fresh strikes may increase their economic hardship. So, is an early end to the war out of the equation? According to America's envoy to the UN, Mike Waltz, the war could drag on for another year. He told the Financial Times that the US will not achieve its goal until Iran disposes of its highly enriched uranium, something that Tehran has already ruled out.