US midterms: What went wrong for Trump? | Gravitas

The scale of the Republicans' defeat in the U.S. midterms raises a key question. What went wrong for U.S. President Donald Trump?

While Republicans may say that the president's party tends to lose seats in a midterm, something deeper than the normal midterm swing is at work this time.

The result marks the first time in 20 years that a sitting president's party has lost control of both chambers of U.S. Congress in a midterm election.

The last comparable outcome came in 2006 when Republicans under then-president George Bush lost 30 seats in the House of Representatives and 6 seats in the Senate.

Just as Trump is facing heat over the protracted Iran war, dissatisfaction over the Iraq war became a major electoral liability for Bush back then.

Now, some of the results paint a story in itself.

Kansas elected its first democratic senator since 1932, Texas its first since 1988, and South Carolina its first since 1998.

When places like these defy the norm, normal explanations do not hold ground.

The reality is Trump lost this election through four mistakes, and every one of them was a choice.

Firstly, he governed like an interventonist. Take tariffs, for instance.

While Trump has used it as a primary strategic weapon for geopolitical leverage, it is essentially a tax paid by American consumers and businesses.

According to the Yale budget lab, Trump's tariffs cost each American household over a thousand U.S. dollars every year.

This assumes significance for a U.S. president who campaigned on making things cheaper.

Now, the last few months have also been marked by an unprecedented trade war with Canada. The impact on the supply chain and tariffs drastically impacted Americans.

Trump also faced flak for U.S. taking a 10% share in Intel and for proposing capping credit card interest at 10%.

This is not all.

The NBC News exit poll found that 65% of people held Trump's policies responsible for the worsening economic conditions in U.S.

Now, we have seen examples of this in the past as well. In 1930, U.S. President Herbert Hoover raised tariffs to protect American industry. Thereafter though, trading partners retaliated, world trade collapsed, and a recession deepened into the Great Depression.

Similarly, Richard Nixon imposed wage and price controls in 1971. While they were initially popular, these measures led to shortages and resulted in huge inflation. Thus, protectionism fails every time, as it shields a few favoured industries and taxes everyone else.

The Iran war is another key reason for the Republican defeat.

Even as Trump promised to keep U.S. out of new wars, he started one along with Israel, putting the entire West Asia on an edge. Additionally, the virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz lED to a global energy crisis.

The U.S. consumers bore the brunt of this as well, with pump prices for gasoline up by 50% and diesel by two-thirds compared to pre-war levels.

According to the NBC News exit poll, 63% of the people disapproved of U.S. taking military action against Iran.

Essentially, wars require public consent to survive, and consent erodes fastest when people feel the war in their household budget.

Now, candidate selection also played a key role. For instance, in Texas, Trump backed Ken Paxton over the sitting senator. This is despite the fact that Paxton was impeached by the Republican-led Texas Lower House for bribery and corruption. Ultimately, he lost to 37-year-old former teacher James Talarico.

In South Carolina, Trump pushed the late Lindsey Graham's sister Darline Graham to contest the senate election even as she never held public office. She ended up losing to 49-year-old pediatrician Annie Andrews.

These are not isolated misjudgments, but the predictable output of a system. While loyal candidates thrive in primaries where a small base decides, they tend to fail in general elections.

Independents and moderate voters want competence, honesty, and someone who will not embarrass them.

Corruption also emerged as a key issue in the polls. According to Fox News' October survey, this was the voters' top concern, even ahead of inflation.

Now, the Trump family's business interests have often raised eyebrows. By his own disclosure, the U.S. president earned over 1.4 billion U.S. dollars in 2025 from his family's crypto businesses.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, his family secretly sold 49% of one of those companies to a firm backed by UAE's national security advisor.

The conflict of interest here is obvious to any voter.

Now look at who won.

A Methodist pastor, a former teacher, a pediatrician, a lifelong working-class democrat. Not one of them comes from the far left. These candidates ran on two key issues-prices and corruption.

Thus, Democrats won by occupying ground which Republicans abandoned.

The other story of this election has been the rise of pro-business Democrats, who argue that their own party's left is to blame for America's failure to build vital infrastructure.

For instance, Pennslyvania Governor Josh Shapiro promised to cut corporate tax, sped up business permits and criticised campus antisemitism. He sided with growth over his party's activist base.

There is a cautionery tale for U.S. as well. At least five candidates from the Democratic Socialists of America have won seats in the U.S. house of representatives, more than ever before.

Concerns have been raised over their alleged hostility to Israel and economic policies such as freezing rent prices in New York.

So what's next for Trump?

Will he choose to course correct, or will Republicans continue to face the consequences going into the 2028 presidential elections?