National Handloom Day 2026: From Alia Bhatt to Samantha Ruth Prabhu; Actresses who celebrated India's textile heritage as brides

The Royals enter the Doctor Who universe: King Charles and Queen Camilla beam into Commonwealth Games in TARDIS

Unitree Robotics targets $9 billion valuation in landmark IPO backed by DeepSeek and Tencent

India names 27 sites in Arunachal Pradesh

Bharat Bhhagya Viddhaata OTT: When will Kangana Ranaut's film stream online?

How many soldiers operate one S-400 battery?

Shakib Al Hasan ready to return to Bangladesh—under one condition

‘Fake news’: MEA rejects report claiming India sought defence pact with Israel after Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey deal

Rockstar to unveil GTA 6 extended look ahead of November launch

Russia forms Ukrainian Volunteer Spetsnaz Brigade to fight Ukraine

Drug-resistant fungus that hides in hair and enters bloodstream reported in 23 US states

Technology transfer deal boosts India's defence manufacturing ambitions

Border row erupts in Europe after Ceuta crossings, Spain imposes border controls on Italy

Morale plummets on USS Abraham Lincoln: Are US sailors reaching a breaking point? | GRAVITAS

'Security can't be bought with Pakistan, Turkey deal': Iran tells Saudi Arabia

Baba Vanga's 2026 prophecy: 2 predictions 'already came true', 3 terrifying ones remain. Details inside

Colombia’s new president Abelardo de la Espriella vows to ‘defeat narco-terrorists’, signals hardline shift

New Friday OTT releases (August 7, 2026): Operation Safed Sagar, Vadhandhi, Main Vaapis Aaunga- 6 movies and TV shows on Netflix, Prime Video and more

Squadron Leader Bhawana Kanth scripts history as Indian Air Force gets its first woman ‘Top Gun’ pilot

RSS says Gen Z protests reflect genuine distress

Trump says Iranian school bombing photos could be AI-generated - 'I don’t think...'

IAF officer held for sharing sensitive information in 'honey trap' case, booked under Official Secrets Act

Stray Kids under scrutiny? Fans react to Grammy submission silence after BTS boycott

Why the Su-30MKI doesn't need external fuel tanks to fly vast distances

Jugal Hansraj reunites with Shekhar Kapur after 40 years for Masoom: The Next Generation

New speed limits, automatic challans: Big traffic change coming to Delhi-Meerut Expressway. All you need to know

India officially names 27 places in Arunachal to counter China's renaming claims

Trump calls White House ballroom ruling a 'national disgrace' as court says Congress approval needed

US sanctions Iran’s crypto network after Strait of Hormuz attacks, offers $15m bounty for intel on IRGC finance

Why the Su-30MKI is one of the heaviest fighters ever built

Uttarakhand young innovator builds India's own flying vehicle, conducts first test flight: WATCH

Chilling video shows students take cover as teen opens fire at Thai school

Reese Witherspoon's father hospitalised after poolside incident in Nashville: Report

China’s consumer spending continues to struggle as the country’s economic recovery remains slow and uncertain. Despite a brief uptick in retail sales for May, analysts warn that the underlying issues driving subdued demand, such as stagnant income growth, a lack of social safety nets, and shifting consumer preferences, are unlikely to subside soon.In recent months, China has witnessed four consecutive months of declining consumer prices, coupled with persistently low consumer confidence.&nbsp;CNBC reported that disposable income growth has halved since the pandemic, now growing at a mere 5 per cent annually, according to Jeremy Stevens, an Asia economist at Standard Bank. This stagnation in income, combined with high youth unemployment and a struggling real estate market, continues to dampen consumer sentiment.A survey conducted by the People’s Bank of China in the third quarter of 2024 found that 64 per cent of Chinese households would rather save than spend, a trend that has been persistent since late 2023. This preference for saving, exacerbated by a limited social safety net, has made it difficult for the government to spur long-term consumer spending.<h2>May retail sales boosted by subsidies and promotions</h2>Despite these ongoing challenges, China’s retail sector experienced a welcome boost in May, with sales growing 6.4 per cent year-on-year, sharply surpassing analysts' expectations of a 5 per cent increase.&nbsp;This surge was partly attributed to the government’s ongoing consumer goods trade-in programme, which incentivised spending, along with a surge in online shopping during the “618” e-commerce event and a rise in foreign tourists following the expansion of China’s visa-free entry list.While the spike in retail sales was encouraging, experts caution that it may not signal a sustainable recovery. Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that the rising sales were a short-term benefit, with falling property prices potentially hurting long-term consumer confidence.&nbsp;According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), property investment continues to contract, dragging down overall economic momentum.<h2>China's labour market struggles</h2>The weak consumer sentiment is closely linked to ongoing challenges in the Chinese labour market. Unemployment among young people aged 16 to 24 stood at a record 15.8 per cent in April, while the official urban unemployment rate hovered around 5 per cent.&nbsp;These figures highlight the lack of wage growth and the challenges posed by an uncertain job market, especially in sectors impacted by US tariffs.Additionally, a recent survey showed that over 60 per cent of respondents favoured saving over spending, indicating that uncertainty about the future and concerns over financial stability continue to weigh heavily on consumers’ minds.&nbsp;Many Chinese citizens also face high out-of-pocket costs for healthcare, education, and retirement, contributing to their reluctance to spend.<h2>Government's efforts to spur consumption</h2>In response to these challenges, Chinese authorities have introduced several measures aimed at stimulating consumption. These include boosting subsidies for consumer goods and expanding the availability of public holidays and services sector consumption vouchers.&nbsp;However, unlike the mass cash handouts in the US and Hong Kong post-pandemic, China has refrained from large-scale financial stimulus, opting instead for more targeted support.Analysts, however, warn that these efforts may not be enough to drive sustained recovery. The consumer sector remains under pressure, with deflationary trends continuing in consumer prices and deeper declines in factory-gate prices.&nbsp;Moreover, many local governments have already paused their consumer goods trade-in programmes as initial subsidies have been exhausted.<h2>A short-term recovery or a long-term struggle?</h2>Despite the May sales surge, the outlook for China’s consumer market remains uncertain. While export growth has remained resilient, particularly to Southeast Asia, the EU, and Africa, domestic demand continues to lag.&nbsp;The ongoing property slump, tightening job market, and economic uncertainty suggest that China may face a prolonged period of weak consumer spending.Some analysts are hopeful that additional fiscal measures may come in the latter half of 2024 if growth continues to falter. However, without stronger demand-side stimulus, many predict that any recovery in consumer spending will be short-lived.China’s economic trajectory will ultimately depend on how effectively it addresses the persistent structural challenges in its labour market and real estate sector. For now, though, the country’s consumer sector faces a challenging road ahead.

Despite a brief uptick in retail sales for May, analysts warn that the underlying issues driving subdued demand, such as stagnant income growth, a lack of social safety nets, and shifting consumer preferences, are unlikely to subside soon.

China’s consumer spending continues to struggle as the country’s economic recovery remains slow and uncertain. Despite a brief uptick in retail sales for May, analysts warn that the underlying issues driving subdued demand, such as stagnant income growth, a lack of social safety nets, and shifting consumer preferences, are unlikely to subside soon. In recent months, China has witnessed four consecutive months of declining consumer prices, coupled with persistently low consumer confidence. CNBC reported that disposable income growth has halved since the pandemic, now growing at a mere 5 per cent annually, according to Jeremy Stevens, an Asia economist at Standard Bank. This stagnation in income, combined with high youth unemployment and a struggling real estate market, continues to dampen consumer sentiment. A survey conducted by the People’s Bank of China in the third quarter of 2024 found that 64 per cent of Chinese households would rather save than spend, a trend that has been persistent since late 2023. This preference for saving, exacerbated by a limited social safety net, has made it difficult for the government to spur long-term consumer spending. May retail sales boosted by subsidies and promotions Despite these ongoing challenges, China’s retail sector experienced a welcome boost in May, with sales growing 6.4 per cent year-on-year, sharply surpassing analysts' expectations of a 5 per cent increase. This surge was partly attributed to the government’s ongoing consumer goods trade-in programme, which incentivised spending, along with a surge in online shopping during the “618” e-commerce event and a rise in foreign tourists following the expansion of China’s visa-free entry list. While the spike in retail sales was encouraging, experts caution that it may not signal a sustainable recovery. Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that the rising sales were a short-term benefit, with falling property prices potentially hurting long-term consumer confidence. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), property investment continues to contract, dragging down overall economic momentum. China's labour market struggles The weak consumer sentiment is closely linked to ongoing challenges in the Chinese labour market. Unemployment among young people aged 16 to 24 stood at a record 15.8 per cent in April, while the official urban unemployment rate hovered around 5 per cent. These figures highlight the lack of wage growth and the challenges posed by an uncertain job market, especially in sectors impacted by US tariffs. Additionally, a recent survey showed that over 60 per cent of respondents favoured saving over spending, indicating that uncertainty about the future and concerns over financial stability continue to weigh heavily on consumers’ minds. Many Chinese citizens also face high out-of-pocket costs for healthcare, education, and retirement, contributing to their reluctance to spend. Government's efforts to spur consumption In response to these challenges, Chinese authorities have introduced several measures aimed at stimulating consumption. These include boosting subsidies for consumer goods and expanding the availability of public holidays and services sector consumption vouchers. However, unlike the mass cash handouts in the US and Hong Kong post-pandemic, China has refrained from large-scale financial stimulus, opting instead for more targeted support. Analysts, however, warn that these efforts may not be enough to drive sustained recovery. The consumer sector remains under pressure, with deflationary trends continuing in consumer prices and deeper declines in factory-gate prices. Moreover, many local governments have already paused their consumer goods trade-in programmes as initial subsidies have been exhausted. A short-term recovery or a long-term struggle? Despite the May sales surge, the outlook for China’s consumer market remains uncertain. While export growth has remained resilient, particularly to Southeast Asia, the EU, and Africa, domestic demand continues to lag. The ongoing property slump, tightening job market, and economic uncertainty suggest that China may face a prolonged period of weak consumer spending. Some analysts are hopeful that additional fiscal measures may come in the latter half of 2024 if growth continues to falter. However, without stronger demand-side stimulus, many predict that any recovery in consumer spending will be short-lived. China’s economic trajectory will ultimately depend on how effectively it addresses the persistent structural challenges in its labour market and real estate sector. For now, though, the country’s consumer sector faces a challenging road ahead.

Despite a brief uptick in retail sales for May, analysts warn that the underlying issues driving subdued demand, such as stagnant income growth, a lack of social safety nets, and shifting consumer preferences, are unlikely to subside soon.

China's consumer spending faces lingering challenges despite May surge

West Asia, already a region defined by volatility and longstanding tensions, has once again been thrust into the international spotlight following the latest escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict.&nbsp;On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military strike aimed at neutralising Iran's nuclear sites and weakening its regional military dominance.&nbsp;The operation resulted in the deaths of several top Iranian military commanders, including General Mohammad Bagheri, General Hossein Salami, and General Amir Ali Hajizadeh—key figures overseeing Iran's armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and its ballistic missile program, respectively.<h2>A new chapter in the Israel-Iran conflict</h2>This military operation represents one of the most significant confrontations between Israel and Iran in decades. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the action as a necessary step to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, which Israel views as an “existential threat”.&nbsp;The timing of the strikes also follows a series of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly since the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel. Tehran’s support for militant proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas has long been a thorn in Israel’s side.&nbsp;Additionally, Iran lost an important ally in Syria with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, further weakening its regional influence.While Israel's actions have left Tehran reeling, it is uncertain whether the latest strikes will ignite widespread domestic unrest that could force a change in government. Although there have been some protests in Iran, they are primarily in response to Israeli aggression, rather than a direct challenge to the ruling regime.<h2>The geopolitical repercussions in the region</h2>Beyond the immediate consequences for Israel and Iran, the fallout from Operation Rising Lion is being felt throughout West Asia. Iran's nuclear ambitions have long been a source of anxiety for its Sunni Arab neighbours, who fear that a nuclear-capable Iran would lead to a regional arms race, with countries like Saudi Arabia likely to pursue their own nuclear weapons programmes.&nbsp;The stakes are high, and Israel’s strike has eased some of these concerns by weakening Iran’s nuclear capabilities, at least for the time being.However, the immediate reaction in the Gulf has been one of condemnation. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman have voiced opposition to Israel’s actions, leaving them in a precarious position.&nbsp;On one hand, Iran and its proxy forces have been a challenge to regional stability, but on the other, Iran has also acted as a counterbalance to Israel’s military dominance in the region. With Israel’s growing influence and a potential shift in US policy under President Donald Trump, the Gulf states are now forced to reconsider their relationships with both Israel and Iran.Former Indian diplomat Mahesh Sachdev notes that the Sunni Arab world harbours little affection for either Israel or Iran. A stronger, more assertive Israel could potentially force Gulf states to normalise ties with the Jewish state under the framework of the 2020 Abraham Accords, a peace agreement that had already begun to reshape the regional diplomatic landscape.India, which has strong ties with both Israel and Iran, finds itself in a delicate position as it watches the unfolding events with cautious attention.<h2>India's delicate balancing act</h2>India has historically treaded carefully when it comes to West Asia, largely due to its complex relations with both Israel and Iran.&nbsp;On one hand, India shares “civilisational ties” with Iran, and the two countries have had a longstanding partnership on matters of energy, trade, and regional connectivity. Iran has also been an important energy partner for India, although the country ceased importing oil from Iran under US sanctions imposed during the Trump administration.On the other hand, India has been a steadfast partner of Israel, particularly since formal diplomatic ties were established in 1992. The relationship has flourished across various sectors, including defence, agriculture, and technology.&nbsp;Israel has been a key supplier of advanced military equipment to India, including drones and missiles, which have been used in operations against Pakistan, particularly during the 2019 Operation Sindoor.India's position on the Iran-Israel conflict is shaped not only by its strong bilateral ties with both nations but also by the need to safeguard its interests in the wider Gulf region. Approximately 9 million Indians live and work in the Gulf states, making the safety and security of the expatriate community a priority. Furthermore, the region plays a vital role in India's energy supply, particularly in terms of oil and natural gas.India’s foreign policy is aligned closely with the Gulf states’ concerns about Iran, especially as Tehran has continued to exert its influence through proxy groups in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, and Iraq.&nbsp;The recent escalation has only deepened India’s commitment to its strategic relationship with Israel, despite the Gulf states’ condemnation of Israel’s actions.<h2>The IMEC and its delays</h2>India’s ambitions for regional connectivity are heavily tied to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which was announced in 2023.&nbsp;The project, which seeks to connect South Asia, West Asia, and Europe through a comprehensive network of transport, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure, is seen as a game-changer for India’s trade and economic prospects.The IMEC project was born out of the vision for peace and cooperation in the region following the Abraham Accords and the creation of the Israel-India-US-UAE (I2U2) grouping.&nbsp;However, the current crisis has cast a shadow over the project’s implementation. The ongoing conflict has created additional uncertainty, delaying key infrastructure developments and complicating logistics in the region.&nbsp;Shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, critical for global trade, have been disrupted by ongoing threats from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, forcing many ships to take longer routes and incur higher costs.Although the IMEC project remains a priority for India, the new geopolitical risks introduced by Israel’s strikes on Iran may cause delays and potentially force a reevaluation of its timeline.<h2>Oil, trade, and markets</h2>The Israel-Iran conflict has already had a significant impact on global markets, particularly oil prices. As tensions rose, Brent crude oil prices surged by 7 per cent, hitting $75 per barrel, with analysts predicting a potential spike above $100 per barrel if the conflict escalates further.&nbsp;The surge in oil prices has ripple effects across the global economy, as higher energy costs lead to increased prices for everything from consumer goods to air travel.West Asia is a major hub for global oil production and maritime trade, and any disruption to shipping routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz (which handles a quarter of the world’s oil trade), could have far-reaching consequences.&nbsp;Iran had recently threatened to block the strait, and although this remains unlikely, analysts are monitoring the situation closely.Rising oil prices are also expected to increase shipping insurance premiums, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers.&nbsp;The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that every 10 per cent increase in oil prices could raise inflation in advanced economies by 0.4 percentage points, adding to the financial strain on consumers and businesses.The disruptions in maritime trade are already being felt, as the Houthi rebels’ attacks have forced many vessels to take longer routes, increasing travel times and costs.&nbsp;This not only delays shipments but also affects global supply chains, which are already fragile due to other geopolitical factors such as the ongoing war in Ukraine.The sudden escalation also rattled the markets around the world, with the S&amp;P 500 falling 1.1 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.8 per cent, and European and Asian indices mirroring these declines. Volatility spiked as the VIX—often called the market’s “fear gauge”—surged past the critical 20-point anxiety threshold.Investors also flocked to safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar, which typically perform well during crises. Spot gold was up 0.38 per cent, while gold futures for August delivery gained 0.41 per cent, following respective June 13 increases of 1.4 per cent and 1.5 per cent.The US dollar index climbed 0.3 per cent on June 13 and was up another 0.1 per cent by June 16 morning, outperforming other traditional safe currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has triggered a volatile mix of geopolitical, economic, and energy market concerns. The ongoing uncertainty in the region is a significant source of risk for global trade and oil markets and could further complicate India's strategic initiatives in West Asia, including the IMEC project.India's ability to navigate this complex situation, balancing its interests with Israel and Iran while safeguarding its goals, will be crucial in shaping the future of West Asia and South Asia's economic landscape.&nbsp;The road ahead remains fraught with challenges, but it is clear that the geopolitical dynamics of this conflict will continue to reverberate across the global economy for the foreseeable future.

The conflict has already caused disruptions in global trade, with rising oil prices and shipping delays. While the immediate impact is significant, the full extent of its impact on global markets, particularly oil and trade, will depend on the duration and scope of the confrontation.

West Asia, already a region defined by volatility and longstanding tensions, has once again been thrust into the international spotlight following the latest escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict. On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military strike aimed at neutralising Iran's nuclear sites and weakening its regional military dominance. The operation resulted in the deaths of several top Iranian military commanders, including General Mohammad Bagheri, General Hossein Salami, and General Amir Ali Hajizadeh—key figures overseeing Iran's armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and its ballistic missile program, respectively. A new chapter in the Israel-Iran conflict This military operation represents one of the most significant confrontations between Israel and Iran in decades. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the action as a necessary step to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, which Israel views as an “existential threat”. The timing of the strikes also follows a series of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly since the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel. Tehran’s support for militant proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas has long been a thorn in Israel’s side. Additionally, Iran lost an important ally in Syria with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, further weakening its regional influence. While Israel's actions have left Tehran reeling, it is uncertain whether the latest strikes will ignite widespread domestic unrest that could force a change in government. Although there have been some protests in Iran, they are primarily in response to Israeli aggression, rather than a direct challenge to the ruling regime. The geopolitical repercussions in the region Beyond the immediate consequences for Israel and Iran, the fallout from Operation Rising Lion is being felt throughout West Asia. Iran's nuclear ambitions have long been a source of anxiety for its Sunni Arab neighbours, who fear that a nuclear-capable Iran would lead to a regional arms race, with countries like Saudi Arabia likely to pursue their own nuclear weapons programmes. The stakes are high, and Israel’s strike has eased some of these concerns by weakening Iran’s nuclear capabilities, at least for the time being. However, the immediate reaction in the Gulf has been one of condemnation. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman have voiced opposition to Israel’s actions, leaving them in a precarious position. On one hand, Iran and its proxy forces have been a challenge to regional stability, but on the other, Iran has also acted as a counterbalance to Israel’s military dominance in the region. With Israel’s growing influence and a potential shift in US policy under President Donald Trump, the Gulf states are now forced to reconsider their relationships with both Israel and Iran. Former Indian diplomat Mahesh Sachdev notes that the Sunni Arab world harbours little affection for either Israel or Iran. A stronger, more assertive Israel could potentially force Gulf states to normalise ties with the Jewish state under the framework of the 2020 Abraham Accords, a peace agreement that had already begun to reshape the regional diplomatic landscape. India, which has strong ties with both Israel and Iran, finds itself in a delicate position as it watches the unfolding events with cautious attention. India's delicate balancing act India has historically treaded carefully when it comes to West Asia, largely due to its complex relations with both Israel and Iran. On one hand, India shares “civilisational ties” with Iran, and the two countries have had a longstanding partnership on matters of energy, trade, and regional connectivity. Iran has also been an important energy partner for India, although the country ceased importing oil from Iran under US sanctions imposed during the Trump administration. On the other hand, India has been a steadfast partner of Israel, particularly since formal diplomatic ties were established in 1992. The relationship has flourished across various sectors, including defence, agriculture, and technology. Israel has been a key supplier of advanced military equipment to India, including drones and missiles, which have been used in operations against Pakistan, particularly during the 2019 Operation Sindoor. India's position on the Iran-Israel conflict is shaped not only by its strong bilateral ties with both nations but also by the need to safeguard its interests in the wider Gulf region. Approximately 9 million Indians live and work in the Gulf states, making the safety and security of the expatriate community a priority. Furthermore, the region plays a vital role in India's energy supply, particularly in terms of oil and natural gas. India’s foreign policy is aligned closely with the Gulf states’ concerns about Iran, especially as Tehran has continued to exert its influence through proxy groups in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, and Iraq. The recent escalation has only deepened India’s commitment to its strategic relationship with Israel, despite the Gulf states’ condemnation of Israel’s actions. The IMEC and its delays India’s ambitions for regional connectivity are heavily tied to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which was announced in 2023. The project, which seeks to connect South Asia, West Asia, and Europe through a comprehensive network of transport, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure, is seen as a game-changer for India’s trade and economic prospects. The IMEC project was born out of the vision for peace and cooperation in the region following the Abraham Accords and the creation of the Israel-India-US-UAE (I2U2) grouping. However, the current crisis has cast a shadow over the project’s implementation. The ongoing conflict has created additional uncertainty, delaying key infrastructure developments and complicating logistics in the region. Shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, critical for global trade, have been disrupted by ongoing threats from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, forcing many ships to take longer routes and incur higher costs. Although the IMEC project remains a priority for India, the new geopolitical risks introduced by Israel’s strikes on Iran may cause delays and potentially force a reevaluation of its timeline. Oil, trade, and markets The Israel-Iran conflict has already had a significant impact on global markets, particularly oil prices. As tensions rose, Brent crude oil prices surged by 7 per cent, hitting $75 per barrel, with analysts predicting a potential spike above $100 per barrel if the conflict escalates further. The surge in oil prices has ripple effects across the global economy, as higher energy costs lead to increased prices for everything from consumer goods to air travel. West Asia is a major hub for global oil production and maritime trade, and any disruption to shipping routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz (which handles a quarter of the world’s oil trade), could have far-reaching consequences. Iran had recently threatened to block the strait, and although this remains unlikely, analysts are monitoring the situation closely. Rising oil prices are also expected to increase shipping insurance premiums, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that every 10 per cent increase in oil prices could raise inflation in advanced economies by 0.4 percentage points, adding to the financial strain on consumers and businesses. The disruptions in maritime trade are already being felt, as the Houthi rebels’ attacks have forced many vessels to take longer routes, increasing travel times and costs. This not only delays shipments but also affects global supply chains, which are already fragile due to other geopolitical factors such as the ongoing war in Ukraine. The sudden escalation also rattled the markets around the world, with the S&P 500 falling 1.1 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.8 per cent, and European and Asian indices mirroring these declines. Volatility spiked as the VIX—often called the market’s “fear gauge”—surged past the critical 20-point anxiety threshold. Investors also flocked to safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar, which typically perform well during crises. Spot gold was up 0.38 per cent, while gold futures for August delivery gained 0.41 per cent, following respective June 13 increases of 1.4 per cent and 1.5 per cent. The US dollar index climbed 0.3 per cent on June 13 and was up another 0.1 per cent by June 16 morning, outperforming other traditional safe currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has triggered a volatile mix of geopolitical, economic, and energy market concerns. The ongoing uncertainty in the region is a significant source of risk for global trade and oil markets and could further complicate India's strategic initiatives in West Asia, including the IMEC project. India's ability to navigate this complex situation, balancing its interests with Israel and Iran while safeguarding its goals, will be crucial in shaping the future of West Asia and South Asia's economic landscape. The road ahead remains fraught with challenges, but it is clear that the geopolitical dynamics of this conflict will continue to reverberate across the global economy for the foreseeable future.

The conflict has already caused disruptions in global trade, with rising oil prices and shipping delays. While the immediate impact is significant, the full extent of its impact on global markets, particularly oil and trade, will depend on the duration and scope of the confrontation.

Rising tensions in West Asia: Israel-Iran conflict and its global repercussions

Alphabet’s Google is preparing to end its long-standing relationship with data-labelling startup Scale AI after Meta Platforms acquired a 49 per cent stake in the company, Reuters&nbsp;reported.&nbsp;The move marks a major shakeup in the AI ecosystem, with several top artificial intelligence (AI) labs now seeking alternative or in-house solutions to protect their proprietary data.Meta’s investment in Scale AI values the startup at $29 billion—double its previous valuation from just a year ago. But the eye-catching deal has spurred immediate concern from competitors in the AI space, who fear their confidential data, research directions, and prototype tools could now be indirectly exposed to a rival.Scale AI specialises in providing expertly labelled datasets which are essential for training generative AI models such as Google’s Gemini or OpenAI’s GPT series.&nbsp;Google alone was slated to spend around $200 million on Scale’s services this year and had paid $150 million in 2024.But insiders say Meta’s new stake and the appointment of Scale CEO Alexandr Wang to lead Meta’s superintelligence team was the tipping point for Google, Microsoft, Elon Musk’s xAI, and even OpenAI, all of whom are now scaling back or exiting their contracts with Scale.<h2>Data privacy, competition fuel concerns</h2>At the core of the backlash is a shared worry over data security and competitive leakage. Companies like Google and Microsoft rely on data-labelling partners to handle sensitive materials—including experimental products and training data—which may now be accessible to a firm like Meta through its close ties to Scale.Though Meta has not taken a board seat at Scale AI and insists the two companies will continue to operate independently, AI labs are sceptical. Wang’s move to Meta, along with a few Scale employees, only intensifies fears that Scale can no longer maintain the neutrality necessary to work with competing AI developers.<h2>Scale’s rivals gain ground</h2>The fallout is rapidly benefiting Scale AI’s competitors. Firms like Labelbox, Turing, Handshake, and Mercor are seeing a surge in demand from AI labs eager to pivot away from Scale. Handshake, which specialises in a vetted network of PhDs and technical experts, reported its client workload tripled overnight after news of the Meta deal broke.Labelbox, another major rival, is reportedly on track to gain “hundreds of millions” in new revenue this year as customers flee Scale. Several companies are also taking the in-house route, hiring their own data labellers to ensure tighter security and control.<h2>Meta’s strategic move and Wang’s role</h2>Meta’s acquisition appears driven not just by data but by talent. The deal gives Meta access to Alexandr Wang, the 28-year-old tech prodigy who co-founded Scale in 2016. Wang, who dropped out of MIT to build Scale, is now tasked with leading Meta’s “superintelligence” team—a move that underscores CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s push to catch up in the AI race.Meta has faced delays in launching new AI models and has lost key staff in recent months. By bringing Wang onboard, the company is betting that a sharp business mind, rather than a research-heavy background, can restore its competitive edge—much like OpenAI's Sam Altman.Scale AI will continue to operate independently and serve its government and enterprise clients, but with its largest customers heading for the exit, the company’s growth trajectory is uncertain. The deal is also likely to invite regulatory scrutiny, especially given Meta’s existing antitrust battles in the US.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

Scale AI specialises in providing expertly labelled datasets which are essential for training generative AI models such as Google’s Gemini or OpenAI’s GPT series. 

Alphabet’s Google is preparing to end its long-standing relationship with data-labelling startup Scale AI after Meta Platforms acquired a 49 per cent stake in the company, Reuters reported. The move marks a major shakeup in the AI ecosystem, with several top artificial intelligence (AI) labs now seeking alternative or in-house solutions to protect their proprietary data. Meta’s investment in Scale AI values the startup at $29 billion—double its previous valuation from just a year ago. But the eye-catching deal has spurred immediate concern from competitors in the AI space, who fear their confidential data, research directions, and prototype tools could now be indirectly exposed to a rival. Scale AI specialises in providing expertly labelled datasets which are essential for training generative AI models such as Google’s Gemini or OpenAI’s GPT series. Google alone was slated to spend around $200 million on Scale’s services this year and had paid $150 million in 2024. But insiders say Meta’s new stake and the appointment of Scale CEO Alexandr Wang to lead Meta’s superintelligence team was the tipping point for Google, Microsoft, Elon Musk’s xAI, and even OpenAI, all of whom are now scaling back or exiting their contracts with Scale. Data privacy, competition fuel concerns At the core of the backlash is a shared worry over data security and competitive leakage. Companies like Google and Microsoft rely on data-labelling partners to handle sensitive materials—including experimental products and training data—which may now be accessible to a firm like Meta through its close ties to Scale. Though Meta has not taken a board seat at Scale AI and insists the two companies will continue to operate independently, AI labs are sceptical. Wang’s move to Meta, along with a few Scale employees, only intensifies fears that Scale can no longer maintain the neutrality necessary to work with competing AI developers. Scale’s rivals gain ground The fallout is rapidly benefiting Scale AI’s competitors. Firms like Labelbox, Turing, Handshake, and Mercor are seeing a surge in demand from AI labs eager to pivot away from Scale. Handshake, which specialises in a vetted network of PhDs and technical experts, reported its client workload tripled overnight after news of the Meta deal broke. Labelbox, another major rival, is reportedly on track to gain “hundreds of millions” in new revenue this year as customers flee Scale. Several companies are also taking the in-house route, hiring their own data labellers to ensure tighter security and control. Meta’s strategic move and Wang’s role Meta’s acquisition appears driven not just by data but by talent. The deal gives Meta access to Alexandr Wang, the 28-year-old tech prodigy who co-founded Scale in 2016. Wang, who dropped out of MIT to build Scale, is now tasked with leading Meta’s “superintelligence” team—a move that underscores CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s push to catch up in the AI race. Meta has faced delays in launching new AI models and has lost key staff in recent months. By bringing Wang onboard, the company is betting that a sharp business mind, rather than a research-heavy background, can restore its competitive edge—much like OpenAI's Sam Altman. Scale AI will continue to operate independently and serve its government and enterprise clients, but with its largest customers heading for the exit, the company’s growth trajectory is uncertain. The deal is also likely to invite regulatory scrutiny, especially given Meta’s existing antitrust battles in the US. (With inputs from agencies)

Scale AI specialises in providing expertly labelled datasets which are essential for training generative AI models such as Google’s Gemini or OpenAI’s GPT series.&nbsp;

Google plans to split from Scale AI after Meta's deal

The latest round of US-China trade talks concluded in London with both sides declaring a new truce, but key issues surrounding national security-linked export controls remain unresolved, casting a shadow over hopes for a comprehensive long-term agreement.&nbsp;While US President Donald Trump hailed the deal as a “great success”, people familiar with the matter confirmed to Reuters&nbsp;that the compromise excludes crucial components like military-grade rare earth exports and advanced technology restrictions.According to two individuals briefed on the negotiations, Beijing has yet to commit to lifting its export restrictions on certain specialised rare-earth magnets essential to US military suppliers, particularly those used in fighter jets and missile systems.&nbsp;In parallel, the US maintains its export curbs on cutting-edge AI chips that it fears could have military applications in China. This unresolved tension forms a significant obstacle to any broader trade resolution.At the London discussions, Chinese negotiators reportedly linked progress on easing restrictions on rare-earth magnets with the longstanding US controls on AI chip exports. This marked a shift from the original trade dialogue, which had centred on tariff adjustments and China’s trade surplus.&nbsp;The emerging focus on export controls, especially in sectors vital to defence and next-generation technologies, signals a deeper strategic competition between the two powers.<h2>Limited gains on rare earths and tariff relief</h2>Although both sides emerged from the talks with what they described as a framework to de-escalate trade tensions, key concessions remain narrow in scope. China has agreed to expedite the approval of export licences for rare earths bound for non-military US manufacturers.&nbsp;These fast-track approvals are expected to be valid for six months and would apply to companies seen as “trusted” by Beijing. Additionally, a “green channel” has been proposed to facilitate smoother processing for select US firms.Chinese rare-earth magnet producer JL MAG Rare-Earth confirmed it had received export licences that included shipments to the United States, while the Chinese Commerce Ministry acknowledged approval of compliant applications.&nbsp;However, rare earth elements like samarium—vital for military applications—remain excluded from this arrangement. Automakers, who primarily use dysprosium and terbium in electric motors and braking systems, will benefit more directly from the current terms than the defence industry.Meanwhile, US officials indicated plans to extend existing tariffs on China by another 90 days beyond the August 10 deadline agreed in Geneva, signalling that a more permanent agreement is not expected before then.&nbsp;<h2>Rare earths as strategic leverage</h2>Rare earth elements—17 minerals crucial to modern manufacturing—have emerged as a strategic bargaining chip in the ongoing trade conflict. China mines around 70 per cent of the world’s rare earths and processes nearly 90 per cent, giving it a near-monopoly in this domain.&nbsp;Beijing’s dominance also extends to related products such as rare earth magnets, which are critical not only to the auto and electronics industries but also to advanced weapons systems.Earlier this year, China imposed export controls on seven key rare earths and related products in response to US tariff escalations. These restrictions, which affected elements such as samarium, dysprosium, and gadolinium, created significant bottlenecks for global manufacturers, particularly in the automotive sector.&nbsp;The impact was swift and deep: Chinese customs data revealed that US imports of rare earths dropped 37 per cent in April, while rare earth magnet imports fell by over 50 per cent.The Geneva truce in May temporarily eased tensions by reducing US tariffs from 145 per cent to 30 per cent and Chinese duties from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. However, the apparent stall in Beijing’s efforts to roll back its rare earth export controls led to renewed friction. The London agreement was widely seen as an effort to stabilise the situation before the tariff pause expired.<h2>Structural barriers and strategic deadlock</h2>Despite the temporary nature of the latest deal, structural issues remain entrenched. China’s control over the rare earth supply chain is backed by decades of investment, state support, and aggressive pricing strategies that forced global competitors out of business.&nbsp;Efforts by Western countries to diversify supply chains have made limited progress. Export licences issued by Beijing often apply to single shipments or are valid for only six months, making long-term planning difficult for manufacturers.Experts note that Beijing’s licensing regime, once seen as a retaliatory measure, is now being institutionalised as a permanent feature of China’s trade policy. This allows China to deter rare earth stockpiling by US firms and maintain strategic leverage in future negotiations.Furthermore, China has expanded its export control framework to other critical minerals such as tungsten, essential for semiconductor and military-grade tools. These moves, combined with the US’s continued efforts to curb China’s access to advanced AI technologies, signal a decoupling trend that extends beyond trade into strategic and technological spheres.While the US has secured some concessions, analysts remain sceptical about the prospects of a lasting resolution. Chinese commentators, including those at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warn that the fundamental trade imbalance and broader geopolitical mistrust may prevent any comprehensive agreement during President Trump’s current term.In the meantime, industries reliant on rare earths, especially automotive, aerospace, and defence, are bracing for continued volatility. With Beijing unlikely to relinquish its dominance and Washington unwilling to compromise on technology exports, the London truce appears more like a tactical pause than a strategic breakthrough. (With inputs from agencies)

At the London discussions, Chinese negotiators reportedly linked progress on easing restrictions on rare-earth magnets with the longstanding US controls on AI chip exports.

The latest round of US-China trade talks concluded in London with both sides declaring a new truce, but key issues surrounding national security-linked export controls remain unresolved, casting a shadow over hopes for a comprehensive long-term agreement. While US President Donald Trump hailed the deal as a “great success”, people familiar with the matter confirmed to Reuters that the compromise excludes crucial components like military-grade rare earth exports and advanced technology restrictions. According to two individuals briefed on the negotiations, Beijing has yet to commit to lifting its export restrictions on certain specialised rare-earth magnets essential to US military suppliers, particularly those used in fighter jets and missile systems. In parallel, the US maintains its export curbs on cutting-edge AI chips that it fears could have military applications in China. This unresolved tension forms a significant obstacle to any broader trade resolution. At the London discussions, Chinese negotiators reportedly linked progress on easing restrictions on rare-earth magnets with the longstanding US controls on AI chip exports. This marked a shift from the original trade dialogue, which had centred on tariff adjustments and China’s trade surplus. The emerging focus on export controls, especially in sectors vital to defence and next-generation technologies, signals a deeper strategic competition between the two powers. Limited gains on rare earths and tariff relief Although both sides emerged from the talks with what they described as a framework to de-escalate trade tensions, key concessions remain narrow in scope. China has agreed to expedite the approval of export licences for rare earths bound for non-military US manufacturers. These fast-track approvals are expected to be valid for six months and would apply to companies seen as “trusted” by Beijing. Additionally, a “green channel” has been proposed to facilitate smoother processing for select US firms. Chinese rare-earth magnet producer JL MAG Rare-Earth confirmed it had received export licences that included shipments to the United States, while the Chinese Commerce Ministry acknowledged approval of compliant applications. However, rare earth elements like samarium—vital for military applications—remain excluded from this arrangement. Automakers, who primarily use dysprosium and terbium in electric motors and braking systems, will benefit more directly from the current terms than the defence industry. Meanwhile, US officials indicated plans to extend existing tariffs on China by another 90 days beyond the August 10 deadline agreed in Geneva, signalling that a more permanent agreement is not expected before then. Rare earths as strategic leverage Rare earth elements—17 minerals crucial to modern manufacturing—have emerged as a strategic bargaining chip in the ongoing trade conflict. China mines around 70 per cent of the world’s rare earths and processes nearly 90 per cent, giving it a near-monopoly in this domain. Beijing’s dominance also extends to related products such as rare earth magnets, which are critical not only to the auto and electronics industries but also to advanced weapons systems. Earlier this year, China imposed export controls on seven key rare earths and related products in response to US tariff escalations. These restrictions, which affected elements such as samarium, dysprosium, and gadolinium, created significant bottlenecks for global manufacturers, particularly in the automotive sector. The impact was swift and deep: Chinese customs data revealed that US imports of rare earths dropped 37 per cent in April, while rare earth magnet imports fell by over 50 per cent. The Geneva truce in May temporarily eased tensions by reducing US tariffs from 145 per cent to 30 per cent and Chinese duties from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. However, the apparent stall in Beijing’s efforts to roll back its rare earth export controls led to renewed friction. The London agreement was widely seen as an effort to stabilise the situation before the tariff pause expired. Structural barriers and strategic deadlock Despite the temporary nature of the latest deal, structural issues remain entrenched. China’s control over the rare earth supply chain is backed by decades of investment, state support, and aggressive pricing strategies that forced global competitors out of business. Efforts by Western countries to diversify supply chains have made limited progress. Export licences issued by Beijing often apply to single shipments or are valid for only six months, making long-term planning difficult for manufacturers. Experts note that Beijing’s licensing regime, once seen as a retaliatory measure, is now being institutionalised as a permanent feature of China’s trade policy. This allows China to deter rare earth stockpiling by US firms and maintain strategic leverage in future negotiations. Furthermore, China has expanded its export control framework to other critical minerals such as tungsten, essential for semiconductor and military-grade tools. These moves, combined with the US’s continued efforts to curb China’s access to advanced AI technologies, signal a decoupling trend that extends beyond trade into strategic and technological spheres. While the US has secured some concessions, analysts remain sceptical about the prospects of a lasting resolution. Chinese commentators, including those at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warn that the fundamental trade imbalance and broader geopolitical mistrust may prevent any comprehensive agreement during President Trump’s current term. In the meantime, industries reliant on rare earths, especially automotive, aerospace, and defence, are bracing for continued volatility. With Beijing unlikely to relinquish its dominance and Washington unwilling to compromise on technology exports, the London truce appears more like a tactical pause than a strategic breakthrough. (With inputs from agencies)

At the London discussions, Chinese negotiators reportedly linked progress on easing restrictions on rare-earth magnets with the longstanding US controls on AI chip exports.

US-China trade truce leaves rare earths issue unresolved

Global central banks representing economies that account for nearly two-fifths of global output are expected to keep interest rates steady in the coming week, as policymakers grapple with an uncertain outlook shaped by escalating trade disputes and renewed geopolitical instability.&nbsp;With fresh tensions flaring between Israel and Iran and continuing disruptions from protectionist policies led by the US, central bankers appear to be exercising extreme caution.Officials in the US, UK, Japan, Norway, and Brazil are among those expected to pause any immediate monetary shifts. The sentiment is mirrored by the Paris-based OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), which recently downgraded its global growth forecasts, citing intensifying trade tensions as a key driver of inflationary pressures and reduced investment activity.<h2>US and Canada: Inflation jitters amid weak consumer demand</h2>All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve, which will meet on Wednesday, just as President Donald Trump approaches his 150th day in office. The Fed is not expected to make any changes, given uncertainties over the long-term economic impact of the administration’s trade policies.&nbsp;Recent data suggests a dip in May retail sales, particularly in automobile purchases, though underlying figures excluding autos and fuel may show slight improvement.Also on the radar are housing starts and industrial production. Manufacturing output is expected to decline for a second consecutive month, reflecting a sector reeling from tariff-related unpredictability.In Canada, the focus will shift to Prime Minister Mark Carney's efforts at the G-7 summit and the Bank of Canada’s policy deliberations. While the central bank held rates steady in its last meeting, it hinted at a possible cut if economic growth softens further. Key indicators such as April retail sales and migration data will be closely watched.<h2>Asia: Holding steady as risks mount</h2>Across Asia, most central banks are set to adopt a wait-and-see approach. The Bank of Japan, despite persistent inflationary struggles, is unlikely to change interest rates. Investors are instead watching for changes in its bond-buying operations, with many anticipating a deceleration.Central banks in Indonesia, Taiwan, and China are also expected to maintain the status quo, the latter holding its loan prime rates steady. The Philippines may buck the trend with a modest rate cut of 25 basis points, driven by easing inflation.China will release a broad set of economic data, including retail sales, industrial production, and employment. While industrial activity may show resilience due to frontloaded manufacturing, property investment is expected to remain weak.&nbsp;Japan, meanwhile, will publish export and inflation data, both of which may reflect the toll of US trade policies.In Israel, inflation is projected to have eased slightly in May. The country’s central bank has held rates at 4.5 per cent for over a year amid persistent regional instability.&nbsp;<h2>Europe and Africa: Oil spike complicates BOE path</h2>In the UK, the Bank of England (BOE) is anticipated to maintain rates at 4.25 per cent, even as inflation remains stubbornly above target at 3.4 per cent.&nbsp;The recent spike in oil prices, triggered by Israel’s strike on Iran’s nuclear program, adds to inflation risks, complicating future rate-cut paths. Analysts predict a 7-2 vote in favour of keeping rates unchanged, with gradual easing likely in the months ahead.The European Central Bank (ECB) will be active on the speaking circuit, with appearances from top officials including President Christine Lagarde. Economic sentiment and consumer confidence data from the eurozone may offer clues on business and consumer reactions to ongoing uncertainties.Meanwhile, South Africa will release inflation data and a financial stability review, both likely to support the case for steady policy.<h2>Latin America: Mixed outlooks amid local challenges</h2>Brazil and Chile are also expected to hold rates, though inflation trends suggest differing paths ahead. After a recent favourable inflation report, Brazil’s central bank is likely to keep its benchmark rate at 14.75 per cent for now, holding off on further tightening.&nbsp;Chile’s policymakers, facing a more subdued inflation environment, may keep rates at 5 per cent while signalling future easing.Economic indicators from Colombia and retail data from Brazil will provide further insight into how resilient household demand remains in the face of global headwinds.With policymakers digesting the impacts of trade disruptions and geopolitical shocks, most central banks are choosing to remain on hold. The prevailing sentiment across major economies is one of watchful inaction, as inflationary risks collide with concerns about slowing growth.&nbsp;As the second half of the year unfolds, the pace and direction of monetary policy will largely depend on how global trade and security dynamics evolve.

With fresh tensions flaring between Israel and Iran and continuing disruptions from protectionist policies led by the US, central bankers appear to be exercising extreme caution.

Global central banks representing economies that account for nearly two-fifths of global output are expected to keep interest rates steady in the coming week, as policymakers grapple with an uncertain outlook shaped by escalating trade disputes and renewed geopolitical instability. With fresh tensions flaring between Israel and Iran and continuing disruptions from protectionist policies led by the US, central bankers appear to be exercising extreme caution. Officials in the US, UK, Japan, Norway, and Brazil are among those expected to pause any immediate monetary shifts. The sentiment is mirrored by the Paris-based OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), which recently downgraded its global growth forecasts, citing intensifying trade tensions as a key driver of inflationary pressures and reduced investment activity. US and Canada: Inflation jitters amid weak consumer demand All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve, which will meet on Wednesday, just as President Donald Trump approaches his 150th day in office. The Fed is not expected to make any changes, given uncertainties over the long-term economic impact of the administration’s trade policies. Recent data suggests a dip in May retail sales, particularly in automobile purchases, though underlying figures excluding autos and fuel may show slight improvement. Also on the radar are housing starts and industrial production. Manufacturing output is expected to decline for a second consecutive month, reflecting a sector reeling from tariff-related unpredictability. In Canada, the focus will shift to Prime Minister Mark Carney's efforts at the G-7 summit and the Bank of Canada’s policy deliberations. While the central bank held rates steady in its last meeting, it hinted at a possible cut if economic growth softens further. Key indicators such as April retail sales and migration data will be closely watched. Asia: Holding steady as risks mount Across Asia, most central banks are set to adopt a wait-and-see approach. The Bank of Japan, despite persistent inflationary struggles, is unlikely to change interest rates. Investors are instead watching for changes in its bond-buying operations, with many anticipating a deceleration. Central banks in Indonesia, Taiwan, and China are also expected to maintain the status quo, the latter holding its loan prime rates steady. The Philippines may buck the trend with a modest rate cut of 25 basis points, driven by easing inflation. China will release a broad set of economic data, including retail sales, industrial production, and employment. While industrial activity may show resilience due to frontloaded manufacturing, property investment is expected to remain weak. Japan, meanwhile, will publish export and inflation data, both of which may reflect the toll of US trade policies. In Israel, inflation is projected to have eased slightly in May. The country’s central bank has held rates at 4.5 per cent for over a year amid persistent regional instability. Europe and Africa: Oil spike complicates BOE path In the UK, the Bank of England (BOE) is anticipated to maintain rates at 4.25 per cent, even as inflation remains stubbornly above target at 3.4 per cent. The recent spike in oil prices, triggered by Israel’s strike on Iran’s nuclear program, adds to inflation risks, complicating future rate-cut paths. Analysts predict a 7-2 vote in favour of keeping rates unchanged, with gradual easing likely in the months ahead. The European Central Bank (ECB) will be active on the speaking circuit, with appearances from top officials including President Christine Lagarde. Economic sentiment and consumer confidence data from the eurozone may offer clues on business and consumer reactions to ongoing uncertainties. Meanwhile, South Africa will release inflation data and a financial stability review, both likely to support the case for steady policy. Latin America: Mixed outlooks amid local challenges Brazil and Chile are also expected to hold rates, though inflation trends suggest differing paths ahead. After a recent favourable inflation report, Brazil’s central bank is likely to keep its benchmark rate at 14.75 per cent for now, holding off on further tightening. Chile’s policymakers, facing a more subdued inflation environment, may keep rates at 5 per cent while signalling future easing. Economic indicators from Colombia and retail data from Brazil will provide further insight into how resilient household demand remains in the face of global headwinds. With policymakers digesting the impacts of trade disruptions and geopolitical shocks, most central banks are choosing to remain on hold. The prevailing sentiment across major economies is one of watchful inaction, as inflationary risks collide with concerns about slowing growth. As the second half of the year unfolds, the pace and direction of monetary policy will largely depend on how global trade and security dynamics evolve.

With fresh tensions flaring between Israel and Iran and continuing disruptions from protectionist policies led by the US, central bankers appear to be exercising extreme caution.

Central banks set to hold rates amid trade disruptions, Central Asian tensions

Global financial markets and energy supply chains have been rattled by a sudden escalation in Central Asia tensions, as Israel launched strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, triggering retaliatory drone attacks from Tehran.&nbsp;The recent fallout has revived fears of a global inflation wave, with oil prices surging and trade disruptions looming.The price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged as much as 13 per cent on June 13, the steepest single-day jump since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.&nbsp;Though prices eased slightly by market close, Brent still ended the day over 7 per cent higher, trading at $74.23 a barrel. Analysts warn the rally may be just the beginning if the conflict widens or if key oil infrastructure is hit.Energy traders are closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow but vital waterway through which 20–25 per cent of global oil supply and much of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass.&nbsp;While shipping continues through the strait for now, the growing conflict has increased the risk of disruption. Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumps roughly three million barrels of oil per day—approximately 3 per cent of global output—and has in the past threatened to close the Strait in response to Western actions.“If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, even temporarily, we’re looking at the biggest oil shock of all time,” Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, told Al Jazeera.&nbsp;The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said it stands ready to release the 1.2 billion barrels of emergency reserves to stabilise supply. But OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais criticised the statement, warning that it could trigger unnecessary panic.<h2>IMF, Analysts warn of ripple effects</h2>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that a 10 per cent rise in oil prices could increase global inflation by 0.4 percentage points and reduce global GDP growth by 0.15 percentage points.&nbsp;Traders are now pricing in a potential $20-40 spike in oil prices if the conflict escalates, particularly if Iran targets production facilities in Iraq or disrupts shipping lanes.For countries like India, which imports over 80 per cent of its crude oil needs, the stakes are especially high. A rise in oil prices directly feeds into higher fuel, transport, and manufacturing costs, raising inflation and weakening the rupee. This could widen India’s current account deficit and dampen foreign investment sentiment.<h2>Markets slide, safe havens surge</h2>Global equities reacted sharply to the news. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.9 per cent, the UK’s FTSE 100 closed 0.39 per cent lower, and US stocks tumbled—with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.79 per cent and the S&amp;P 500 down 0.69 per cent.&nbsp;Meanwhile, gold surged 1.2 per cent to $3,423.30 an ounce, its highest level in two months, as investors sought refuge in traditional safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc.Analysts have warned that if Iranian production is disrupted, oil could reach $100 per barrel. However, they noted that such a spike may encourage other producers to ramp up supply, limiting the long-term inflationary impact.Some airlines have suspended flights to Tel Aviv and Tehran, while merchant ships are proceeding with caution through the Strait of Hormuz. Countries like Greece and the UK have issued advisories for vessels to avoid high-risk waters, including the Gulf of Aden.With geopolitical tensions escalating and oil markets on edge, the world may be entering a new phase of energy insecurity and economic fragility—one where supply shocks, inflation risks, and geopolitical brinkmanship are closely intertwined.

The price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged as much as 13 per cent on June 13, the steepest single-day jump since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

Global financial markets and energy supply chains have been rattled by a sudden escalation in Central Asia tensions, as Israel launched strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, triggering retaliatory drone attacks from Tehran. The recent fallout has revived fears of a global inflation wave, with oil prices surging and trade disruptions looming. The price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged as much as 13 per cent on June 13, the steepest single-day jump since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Though prices eased slightly by market close, Brent still ended the day over 7 per cent higher, trading at $74.23 a barrel. Analysts warn the rally may be just the beginning if the conflict widens or if key oil infrastructure is hit. Energy traders are closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow but vital waterway through which 20–25 per cent of global oil supply and much of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass. While shipping continues through the strait for now, the growing conflict has increased the risk of disruption. Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumps roughly three million barrels of oil per day—approximately 3 per cent of global output—and has in the past threatened to close the Strait in response to Western actions. “If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, even temporarily, we’re looking at the biggest oil shock of all time,” Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, told Al Jazeera. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said it stands ready to release the 1.2 billion barrels of emergency reserves to stabilise supply. But OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais criticised the statement, warning that it could trigger unnecessary panic. IMF, Analysts warn of ripple effects The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that a 10 per cent rise in oil prices could increase global inflation by 0.4 percentage points and reduce global GDP growth by 0.15 percentage points. Traders are now pricing in a potential $20-40 spike in oil prices if the conflict escalates, particularly if Iran targets production facilities in Iraq or disrupts shipping lanes. For countries like India, which imports over 80 per cent of its crude oil needs, the stakes are especially high. A rise in oil prices directly feeds into higher fuel, transport, and manufacturing costs, raising inflation and weakening the rupee. This could widen India’s current account deficit and dampen foreign investment sentiment. Markets slide, safe havens surge Global equities reacted sharply to the news. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.9 per cent, the UK’s FTSE 100 closed 0.39 per cent lower, and US stocks tumbled—with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.79 per cent and the S&P 500 down 0.69 per cent. Meanwhile, gold surged 1.2 per cent to $3,423.30 an ounce, its highest level in two months, as investors sought refuge in traditional safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc. Analysts have warned that if Iranian production is disrupted, oil could reach $100 per barrel. However, they noted that such a spike may encourage other producers to ramp up supply, limiting the long-term inflationary impact. Some airlines have suspended flights to Tel Aviv and Tehran, while merchant ships are proceeding with caution through the Strait of Hormuz. Countries like Greece and the UK have issued advisories for vessels to avoid high-risk waters, including the Gulf of Aden. With geopolitical tensions escalating and oil markets on edge, the world may be entering a new phase of energy insecurity and economic fragility—one where supply shocks, inflation risks, and geopolitical brinkmanship are closely intertwined.

The price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged as much as 13 per cent on June 13, the steepest single-day jump since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.&nbsp;

Israel-Iran escalating tensions spark global oil shock, raise fears of fresh inflation wave

&nbsp;Boeing has slightly lowered its long-term growth expectations for the avition sector but maintained its forecast for aircraft demand, projecting the need for 43,600 new commercial airplanes through 2044.&nbsp;The revised Commercial Market Outlook, released Sunday ahead of the Paris Airshow, reflects tempered optimism as global air travel rebounds post-pandemic.Although the total demand projection is nearly unchanged from last year’s estimate of 43,975 jets through 2043, Boeing has trimmed several key growth metrics.&nbsp;The company lowered its annual passenger traffic growth forecast from 4.7 per cent to 4.2 per cent and cut its global GDP growth estimate from 2.6 per cent to 2.3 per cent. Forecasts for cargo traffic and fleet growth were also revised downward to 3.7 per cent and 3.1 per cent, respectively.Despite the moderation in outlook, Boeing remains bullish on long-term demand, driven largely by emerging markets. “We continue to see strong demand over the long term, especially from fast-growing economies with expanding middle classes and rising connectivity needs,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing’s Vice President of Commercial Marketing.<h2>Strong demand for single-aisle jets</h2>Of the 43,600 projected deliveries, single-aisle jets like the 737 MAX are expected to dominate, accounting for nearly 33,300 aircraft—about four in every five deliveries. Widebody aircraft will comprise around 7,800 units, while Boeing also forecasts 955 freighters and 1,545 regional jets.Emerging markets in Asia, Latin America, and Africa are projected to account for over half of the global fleet by 2044, up from 40 per cent in 2024. China and South/Southeast Asia—including India—are expected to represent half of the additional capacity required to meet rising air travel demand.Meanwhile, North America and Eurasia will see more demand focused on replacing ageing aircraft. Boeing estimates 51 per cent of future demand will come from fleet growth, with the rest aimed at renewing older jets with more fuel-efficient models.Boeing also continues to grapple with production setbacks. Manufacturing output remains well below pre-pandemic levels, resulting in a global shortfall of 1,500 to 2,000 aircraft.&nbsp;The company is under pressure following a mid-air panel blowout on a 737 MAX in early 2024, which led the US Federal Aviation Administration to cap production at 38 units per month. A recent Air India 787-8 crash has added fresh scrutiny, prompting CEO Kelly Ortberg to skip the Paris Airshow to oversee the investigation.Meanwhile, deliveries to China—which account for about 10 per cent of Boeing’s backlog—are expected to resume this month after a pause linked to US-China trade tensions.With air travel demand projected to rise over 40 per cent by 2030, Boeing’s long-term outlook suggests cautious confidence, even as safety concerns and supply chain challenges persist.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

Boeing continues to grapple with production setbacks. Manufacturing output remains well below pre-pandemic levels, resulting in a global shortfall of 1,500 to 2,000 aircraft. 

Boeing has slightly lowered its long-term growth expectations for the avition sector but maintained its forecast for aircraft demand, projecting the need for 43,600 new commercial airplanes through 2044. The revised Commercial Market Outlook, released Sunday ahead of the Paris Airshow, reflects tempered optimism as global air travel rebounds post-pandemic. Although the total demand projection is nearly unchanged from last year’s estimate of 43,975 jets through 2043, Boeing has trimmed several key growth metrics. The company lowered its annual passenger traffic growth forecast from 4.7 per cent to 4.2 per cent and cut its global GDP growth estimate from 2.6 per cent to 2.3 per cent. Forecasts for cargo traffic and fleet growth were also revised downward to 3.7 per cent and 3.1 per cent, respectively. Despite the moderation in outlook, Boeing remains bullish on long-term demand, driven largely by emerging markets. “We continue to see strong demand over the long term, especially from fast-growing economies with expanding middle classes and rising connectivity needs,” said Darren Hulst, Boeing’s Vice President of Commercial Marketing. Strong demand for single-aisle jets Of the 43,600 projected deliveries, single-aisle jets like the 737 MAX are expected to dominate, accounting for nearly 33,300 aircraft—about four in every five deliveries. Widebody aircraft will comprise around 7,800 units, while Boeing also forecasts 955 freighters and 1,545 regional jets. Emerging markets in Asia, Latin America, and Africa are projected to account for over half of the global fleet by 2044, up from 40 per cent in 2024. China and South/Southeast Asia—including India—are expected to represent half of the additional capacity required to meet rising air travel demand. Meanwhile, North America and Eurasia will see more demand focused on replacing ageing aircraft. Boeing estimates 51 per cent of future demand will come from fleet growth, with the rest aimed at renewing older jets with more fuel-efficient models. Boeing also continues to grapple with production setbacks. Manufacturing output remains well below pre-pandemic levels, resulting in a global shortfall of 1,500 to 2,000 aircraft. The company is under pressure following a mid-air panel blowout on a 737 MAX in early 2024, which led the US Federal Aviation Administration to cap production at 38 units per month. A recent Air India 787-8 crash has added fresh scrutiny, prompting CEO Kelly Ortberg to skip the Paris Airshow to oversee the investigation. Meanwhile, deliveries to China—which account for about 10 per cent of Boeing’s backlog—are expected to resume this month after a pause linked to US-China trade tensions. With air travel demand projected to rise over 40 per cent by 2030, Boeing’s long-term outlook suggests cautious confidence, even as safety concerns and supply chain challenges persist. (With inputs from agencies)

Boeing continues to grapple with production setbacks. Manufacturing output remains well below pre-pandemic levels, resulting in a global shortfall of 1,500 to 2,000 aircraft.

Boeing lowers jet demand outlook, maintains long-term growth forecast

Amazon Web Services (AWS), a subsidiary of Amazon.com Inc., has announced a massive AU$20 billion ($13 billion) investment plan to expand, operate, and maintain its data centre infrastructure across Australia between 2025 and 2029.&nbsp;This marks the largest-ever technology investment in the country by a global firm, aimed at supporting Australia's growing demand for cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities.The investment is expected to accelerate AI adoption and help modernise businesses across sectors while aligning with the Australian government’s vision to drive productivity and economic growth through innovation.<h2>Powering AI transformation</h2>AWS’s expanded infrastructure will offer advanced cloud and generative AI tools to hundreds of thousands of Australian customers and partners. The company says its new data centre investment will help organisations harness the power of AI and support compute-heavy workloads with local data residency and regulatory compliance.“AI is a once-in-a-generation transformation, and Amazon is pleased to be empowering all Australians to innovate at scale through this investment,” said AWS CEO Matt Garman.According to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, AI and automation could add up to AU$600 billion ($388 billion) annually to Australia’s GDP by 2030.<h2>Building on a decade of commitment</h2>AWS has been operating in Australia since 2012, with the launch of its Asia Pacific (Sydney) region. Over the years, it has expanded with the Asia Pacific (Melbourne) region and local zones in Perth. The company also introduced Amazon Bedrock, its fully managed generative AI service, in Sydney in 2024.&nbsp;A major milestone came when AWS partnered with the Australian government to create a “top secret” AWS Cloud for national security and defence.Prime Minister Anthony Albanese praised the announcement, stating, “This is exactly the kind of economic investment we want to see. It will create skilled jobs, infrastructure for complex AI applications, and opportunity for innovation and growth.”<h2>Backing growth with clean energy</h2>To power its expanding infrastructure, Amazon is investing in three new solar farms in Victoria and Queensland. Operated by European Energy, these farms will supply more than 170 megawatts (MW) of renewable energy. The projects add to Amazon’s existing portfolio of eight wind and solar farms across the country.Once operational, all 11 projects are projected to generate over 1.4 million megawatt-hours of carbon-free energy annually, which is enough to power approximately 290,000 Australian homes.AWS's cloud services are also more energy-efficient. A study by Accenture found migrating AI workloads to AWS can cut carbon emissions by up to 94 per cent compared to on-premises data centres.<h2>Training Australians for the AI future</h2>Alongside infrastructure expansion, AWS is doubling down on AI skills training through its AI Spring Australia initiative. The programme includes the AWS Generative AI Accelerator for startups and AI Launchpad for enterprises. The company has trained over 400,000 Australians since 2017 and aims to equip many more with AI and cloud expertise.Programs such as Amazon’s AI Ready and Work-Based Learning Program are designed to prepare Australians for future tech roles.This investment in Australia follows similar major commitments from Amazon in the US, including $20 billion in Pennsylvania, $10 billion in North Carolina, and $5 billion in Taiwan. These projects are part of a broader race among tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google to dominate the generative AI and cloud infrastructure space.

The investment is expected to accelerate AI adoption and help modernise businesses across sectors while aligning with the Australian government’s vision to drive productivity and economic growth through innovation.

Amazon Web Services (AWS), a subsidiary of Amazon.com Inc., has announced a massive AU$20 billion ($13 billion) investment plan to expand, operate, and maintain its data centre infrastructure across Australia between 2025 and 2029. This marks the largest-ever technology investment in the country by a global firm, aimed at supporting Australia's growing demand for cloud computing and artificial intelligence (AI) capabilities. The investment is expected to accelerate AI adoption and help modernise businesses across sectors while aligning with the Australian government’s vision to drive productivity and economic growth through innovation. Powering AI transformation AWS’s expanded infrastructure will offer advanced cloud and generative AI tools to hundreds of thousands of Australian customers and partners. The company says its new data centre investment will help organisations harness the power of AI and support compute-heavy workloads with local data residency and regulatory compliance. “AI is a once-in-a-generation transformation, and Amazon is pleased to be empowering all Australians to innovate at scale through this investment,” said AWS CEO Matt Garman. According to the Department of Industry, Science and Resources, AI and automation could add up to AU$600 billion ($388 billion) annually to Australia’s GDP by 2030. Building on a decade of commitment AWS has been operating in Australia since 2012, with the launch of its Asia Pacific (Sydney) region. Over the years, it has expanded with the Asia Pacific (Melbourne) region and local zones in Perth. The company also introduced Amazon Bedrock, its fully managed generative AI service, in Sydney in 2024. A major milestone came when AWS partnered with the Australian government to create a “top secret” AWS Cloud for national security and defence. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese praised the announcement, stating, “This is exactly the kind of economic investment we want to see. It will create skilled jobs, infrastructure for complex AI applications, and opportunity for innovation and growth.” Backing growth with clean energy To power its expanding infrastructure, Amazon is investing in three new solar farms in Victoria and Queensland. Operated by European Energy, these farms will supply more than 170 megawatts (MW) of renewable energy. The projects add to Amazon’s existing portfolio of eight wind and solar farms across the country. Once operational, all 11 projects are projected to generate over 1.4 million megawatt-hours of carbon-free energy annually, which is enough to power approximately 290,000 Australian homes. AWS's cloud services are also more energy-efficient. A study by Accenture found migrating AI workloads to AWS can cut carbon emissions by up to 94 per cent compared to on-premises data centres. Training Australians for the AI future Alongside infrastructure expansion, AWS is doubling down on AI skills training through its AI Spring Australia initiative. The programme includes the AWS Generative AI Accelerator for startups and AI Launchpad for enterprises. The company has trained over 400,000 Australians since 2017 and aims to equip many more with AI and cloud expertise. Programs such as Amazon’s AI Ready and Work-Based Learning Program are designed to prepare Australians for future tech roles. This investment in Australia follows similar major commitments from Amazon in the US, including $20 billion in Pennsylvania, $10 billion in North Carolina, and $5 billion in Taiwan. These projects are part of a broader race among tech giants like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google to dominate the generative AI and cloud infrastructure space.

The investment is expected to accelerate AI adoption and help modernise businesses across sectors while aligning with the Australian government’s vision to drive productivity and economic growth through innovation.

Amazon to invest $13 billion in Australian data centres and AI infrastructure

As tensions between Israel and Iran escalate into direct military confrontation, shockwaves are rippling through global markets, threatening to unleash a fresh wave of inflation and derail fragile economic recoveries.&nbsp;Gold prices soared, oil surged, and investors fled to the safety of the US dollar on Friday after Israel launched strikes on Iranian military assets. The economic tremors are already visible, with energy markets, shipping, consumer goods, and travel sectors bracing for renewed volatility.<h2>Oil spikes, gas prices may follow</h2>Crude prices posted their largest one-day surge since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Brent crude jumped over 9 per cent, crossing $94 per barrel, while WTI crude hovered above $91, as per Reuters.&nbsp;The market is now pricing in a worst-case scenario—an Iranian attempt to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20 million barrels per day, or roughly 20 per cent of global oil flows, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).&nbsp;As quoted by ING and Bloomberg, the Israel–Iran conflict could wipe out a projected Q3–Q4 2025 oil surplus, pushing prices further up. JPMorgan analysts, quoted by Reuters, warned crude could surge to $120–130 per barrel if supplies from the Gulf are disrupted.&nbsp;In the US, average gas prices were $3.13 per gallon on Friday, down from $3.46 a year ago, according to AAA. But that decline could reverse quickly. In India, fuel prices are closely tied to Brent benchmarks, and as per Nomura, a sustained surge could result in a ₹4–5/litre hike in petrol and diesel prices.<h2>Shipping squeezed again: Red Sea risk rises</h2>The Red Sea which is already under stress from Houthi rebel attacks will now faces heightened risk amid Iran-backed militant threats to commercial vessels. Shipping traffic in the region has fallen by nearly 25 per cent since January, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, as carriers avoid the high-risk corridor.&nbsp;US-led airstrikes in Yemen have forced global cargo carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to Asia–Europe voyages and sharply increasing insurance and fuel costs, as reported by Bloomberg.&nbsp;The Baltic Dry Index, a global benchmark for shipping activity, rose to 1,904, it's highest in eight months—as per Trading Economics. Shipping stocks also surged: Teekay Corp and Frontline Ltd gained 6–7 per cent, according to Bloomberg data.<h2>Consumer goods: A perfect storm of tariffs and tensions</h2>With US President Donald Trump’s 2025 tariffs imposing new levies on imports from China, Vietnam, and India, retailers are already under pressure. The US Retail Federation, as quoted by Reuters, estimates that these tariffs are adding 5–12 per cent to wholesale costs across product categories.&nbsp;&nbsp;The Israel–Iran conflict is expected to amplify these pressures. Logistics and energy costs are rising, and companies like Walmart and J.M. Smucker have already passed those hikes onto consumers, as noted by Reuters.&nbsp;As per ING analysts quoted by the Associated Press, firms are burning through their inventory buffers, and the resulting supply crunch could cause “larger month-on-month inflation spikes” in mid-2025. Central banks that were celebrating a soft landing may now be forced into a new inflation&nbsp;battle.<h2>Travel turmoil: Flights down, costs uncertain</h2>Jet fuel prices are climbing fast, and airlines are adjusting. As per FlightRadar24, over 100 commercial flights have been cancelled or rerouted since the start of the week, with airspace over Iran, Iraq, and parts of the Gulf becoming increasingly restricted.&nbsp;Major airlines including Lufthansa, Emirates, and Air India have announced temporary flight suspensions or altered long-haul routes to avoid the region, according to Reuters. These detours raise fuel burn and operating costs significantly.&nbsp;The S&amp;P 500 Airline Index dropped 1.6 per cent on Friday, with shares of Delta Air Lines and United Airlines falling 2–3 per cent, as reported by Bloomberg. Analysts expect operational costs to rise further as hedging becomes more expensive.&nbsp;Despite that, leisure demand is softening. Bank of America card data, cited by Reuters, shows a 4.2 per cent dip in consumer travel spending over the past month. Combined with the Boeing aircraft safety concerns and rising geopolitical anxiety, passenger confidence remains fragile.<h2>Federal Reserve under pressure</h2>The economic fallout from a deeper Israel–Iran war could derail the global effort to tame inflation. The US Federal Reserve, which meets next week, was expected to hold rates steady, but may now revise its inflation outlook.&nbsp;As quoted by the Associated Press, ING said price hikes “already in the pipeline” could be accelerated by conflict-driven supply shocks. The Fed’s Beige Book, released last week, flagged “widespread reports” of upcoming consumer price increases—particularly in sectors exposed to energy and logistics&nbsp;volatility.<h2>The big picture: Geo-shock meets fragile recovery</h2>The Israel–Iran conflict comes at a precarious time. With global inflation only recently stabilising, another commodity and supply chain shock could push households and businesses into a new wave of economic pain.&nbsp;For now, diplomacy appears stalled. Until de-escalation materialises, global markets and policymakers face another long, uncertain summer marked by higher prices, tighter credit, and deeper strategic risk.&nbsp;&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

The economic fallout from a deeper Israel–Iran war could derail the global effort to tame inflation. The US Federal Reserve, which meets next week, was expected to hold rates steady, but may now revise its inflation outlook.

As tensions between Israel and Iran escalate into direct military confrontation, shockwaves are rippling through global markets, threatening to unleash a fresh wave of inflation and derail fragile economic recoveries. Gold prices soared, oil surged, and investors fled to the safety of the US dollar on Friday after Israel launched strikes on Iranian military assets. The economic tremors are already visible, with energy markets, shipping, consumer goods, and travel sectors bracing for renewed volatility. Oil spikes, gas prices may follow Crude prices posted their largest one-day surge since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Brent crude jumped over 9 per cent, crossing $94 per barrel, while WTI crude hovered above $91, as per Reuters. The market is now pricing in a worst-case scenario—an Iranian attempt to blockade the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20 million barrels per day, or roughly 20 per cent of global oil flows, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA). As quoted by ING and Bloomberg, the Israel–Iran conflict could wipe out a projected Q3–Q4 2025 oil surplus, pushing prices further up. JPMorgan analysts, quoted by Reuters, warned crude could surge to $120–130 per barrel if supplies from the Gulf are disrupted. In the US, average gas prices were $3.13 per gallon on Friday, down from $3.46 a year ago, according to AAA. But that decline could reverse quickly. In India, fuel prices are closely tied to Brent benchmarks, and as per Nomura, a sustained surge could result in a ₹4–5/litre hike in petrol and diesel prices. Shipping squeezed again: Red Sea risk rises The Red Sea which is already under stress from Houthi rebel attacks will now faces heightened risk amid Iran-backed militant threats to commercial vessels. Shipping traffic in the region has fallen by nearly 25 per cent since January, according to Lloyd’s List Intelligence, as carriers avoid the high-risk corridor. US-led airstrikes in Yemen have forced global cargo carriers to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to Asia–Europe voyages and sharply increasing insurance and fuel costs, as reported by Bloomberg. The Baltic Dry Index, a global benchmark for shipping activity, rose to 1,904, it's highest in eight months—as per Trading Economics. Shipping stocks also surged: Teekay Corp and Frontline Ltd gained 6–7 per cent, according to Bloomberg data. Consumer goods: A perfect storm of tariffs and tensions With US President Donald Trump’s 2025 tariffs imposing new levies on imports from China, Vietnam, and India, retailers are already under pressure. The US Retail Federation, as quoted by Reuters, estimates that these tariffs are adding 5–12 per cent to wholesale costs across product categories. The Israel–Iran conflict is expected to amplify these pressures. Logistics and energy costs are rising, and companies like Walmart and J.M. Smucker have already passed those hikes onto consumers, as noted by Reuters. As per ING analysts quoted by the Associated Press, firms are burning through their inventory buffers, and the resulting supply crunch could cause “larger month-on-month inflation spikes” in mid-2025. Central banks that were celebrating a soft landing may now be forced into a new inflation battle. Travel turmoil: Flights down, costs uncertain Jet fuel prices are climbing fast, and airlines are adjusting. As per FlightRadar24, over 100 commercial flights have been cancelled or rerouted since the start of the week, with airspace over Iran, Iraq, and parts of the Gulf becoming increasingly restricted. Major airlines including Lufthansa, Emirates, and Air India have announced temporary flight suspensions or altered long-haul routes to avoid the region, according to Reuters. These detours raise fuel burn and operating costs significantly. The S&P 500 Airline Index dropped 1.6 per cent on Friday, with shares of Delta Air Lines and United Airlines falling 2–3 per cent, as reported by Bloomberg. Analysts expect operational costs to rise further as hedging becomes more expensive. Despite that, leisure demand is softening. Bank of America card data, cited by Reuters, shows a 4.2 per cent dip in consumer travel spending over the past month. Combined with the Boeing aircraft safety concerns and rising geopolitical anxiety, passenger confidence remains fragile. Federal Reserve under pressure The economic fallout from a deeper Israel–Iran war could derail the global effort to tame inflation. The US Federal Reserve, which meets next week, was expected to hold rates steady, but may now revise its inflation outlook. As quoted by the Associated Press, ING said price hikes “already in the pipeline” could be accelerated by conflict-driven supply shocks. The Fed’s Beige Book, released last week, flagged “widespread reports” of upcoming consumer price increases—particularly in sectors exposed to energy and logistics volatility. The big picture: Geo-shock meets fragile recovery The Israel–Iran conflict comes at a precarious time. With global inflation only recently stabilising, another commodity and supply chain shock could push households and businesses into a new wave of economic pain. For now, diplomacy appears stalled. Until de-escalation materialises, global markets and policymakers face another long, uncertain summer marked by higher prices, tighter credit, and deeper strategic risk. (With inputs from the agencies)

The Israel–Iran conflict is rattling global markets, triggering oil and gold surges, inflation fears, and fresh pressure on supply chains, travel, and central banks.

Israel–Iran war may send prices soaring, fuel global economic turmoil

Japan is stepping up efforts to secure a breakthrough trade deal with the United States before the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Canada, even as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warns Tokyo will not accept a rushed or one-sided agreement.&nbsp;Speaking in Washington on Friday, Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa confirmed that detailed talks had taken place with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, aimed at resolving tariff tensions and securing economic security cooperation. The two meetings lasted over two hours in total.&nbsp;“To achieve an agreement that is mutually beneficial, we engaged in very in-depth discussions… on expanding bilateral trade, non-tariff measures, and economic security,” Akazawa told reporters after the sixth round of talks, as quoted by Reuters.&nbsp;However, no indication was given on whether a formal deal might be announced during the G7 summit, set to begin Sunday in Charlevoix, Canada. Prime Minister Ishiba and President Donald Trump are expected to meet on the sidelines, but a final schedule remains unconfirmed.<h2>High tariffs, high stakes</h2>At the heart of the standoff is the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff regime, which includes a 25 per cent tariff on Japanese auto imports, a 50 per cent duty on steel and aluminium, and an across-the-board 10 per cent levy on other Japanese goods set to rise to 24 per cent from July 9 if no deal is reached.&nbsp;As per Reuters, Japan’s government is pushing hard to secure tariff relief before the summit or risk further economic fallout.&nbsp;Last week, Akazawa made it clear Japan “won’t necessarily wait” until the G7 to reach a deal if both sides find common ground earlier. But he admitted that no agreement was imminent as of yet.Economic pressure mounts on Tokyo&nbsp;Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) has already flagged that the current tariff levels threaten to tip the economy into a technical recession, especially after weak industrial output in Q1 2025. In response, Prime Minister Ishiba approved emergency funds to shield small businesses and households from the tariff impact.&nbsp;According to Bloomberg, Ishiba also met with opposition leaders last week, calling for cross-party unity to address what he described as a “national crisis.”&nbsp;“Progress is good,” Ishiba said. “But we won’t compromise Japan’s interests just to announce a quick deal,” he added, as quoted by Bloomberg.&nbsp;The pressure is compounded by Japan’s looming upper house elections in July, where Ishiba’s political standing could be damaged if the G7 fails to yield results.<h2>US–Japan trade: Deep ties, deeper divides</h2>The US remains Japan’s second-largest trading partner after China, with exports worth over $135 billion in 2024, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance. However, 19 per cent of those exports come from the auto sector, which has been directly targeted by Trump’s tariffs, as per World Bank data.&nbsp;Trump has defended the duties as a necessary move to reduce the US trade deficit and strengthen domestic manufacturing. Commerce Department data this week showed the US trade gap shrinking by 55.5 per cent in April, with imports falling by a record 16.3 per cent, numbers the administration views as validation of its tariff strategy.&nbsp;But Japan sees things differently. Economists warn that caving to US pressure could weaken Japan’s industrial competitiveness and set a precedent for further concessions.&nbsp;“Japan cannot afford to be seen as conceding too much ahead of the G7,” said Noriko Hama, professor of economics at Doshisha University, speaking to Nikkei Asia. “Yet there’s immense pressure to keep US relations stable.”<h2>G7: Window for diplomacy or pressure tactics?</h2>The upcoming G7 summit from June 15–17 is widely seen as a litmus test for Japan–US ties. Trump is expected to push his agenda for “fairer trade deals”, including calls for greater market access for US agriculture and a possible rollback of Japan’s tech export restrictions.&nbsp;Diplomatic officials quoted by Reuters said a last-minute bilateral between Trump and Ishiba remains possible, even if not officially announced.&nbsp;Still, Japanese negotiators insist they are not negotiating under pressure.“We are not going to negotiate under media spectacle,” said a senior trade ministry official, speaking anonymously to Reuters. “We seek a rules-based outcome with mutual respect.”<h2>Outlook: Tokyo cautious, but determined</h2>Whether or not a deal materialises at the G7, Japan appears to be signalling one clear message, it won’t be rushed. With rising costs at home, businesses on edge, and the clock ticking toward a key election, Ishiba’s government is balancing political necessity with strategic restraint.&nbsp;As the G7 opens in Canada, all eyes will be on whether Trump and Ishiba can find common ground — or whether the tariff cloud will continue to loom over one of the world’s most important bilateral trade relationships.&nbsp; (With inputs from the agencies) &nbsp;

The pressure is compounded by Japan looming upper house elections in July, where Prime Minister Ishiba’s political standing could be damaged if the G7 fails to yield results.

Japan is stepping up efforts to secure a breakthrough trade deal with the United States before the Group of Seven (G7) summit in Canada, even as Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba warns Tokyo will not accept a rushed or one-sided agreement. Speaking in Washington on Friday, Japan’s top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa confirmed that detailed talks had taken place with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, aimed at resolving tariff tensions and securing economic security cooperation. The two meetings lasted over two hours in total. “To achieve an agreement that is mutually beneficial, we engaged in very in-depth discussions… on expanding bilateral trade, non-tariff measures, and economic security,” Akazawa told reporters after the sixth round of talks, as quoted by Reuters. However, no indication was given on whether a formal deal might be announced during the G7 summit, set to begin Sunday in Charlevoix, Canada. Prime Minister Ishiba and President Donald Trump are expected to meet on the sidelines, but a final schedule remains unconfirmed. High tariffs, high stakes At the heart of the standoff is the Trump administration’s aggressive tariff regime, which includes a 25 per cent tariff on Japanese auto imports, a 50 per cent duty on steel and aluminium, and an across-the-board 10 per cent levy on other Japanese goods set to rise to 24 per cent from July 9 if no deal is reached. As per Reuters, Japan’s government is pushing hard to secure tariff relief before the summit or risk further economic fallout. Last week, Akazawa made it clear Japan “won’t necessarily wait” until the G7 to reach a deal if both sides find common ground earlier. But he admitted that no agreement was imminent as of yet. Economic pressure mounts on Tokyo Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) has already flagged that the current tariff levels threaten to tip the economy into a technical recession, especially after weak industrial output in Q1 2025. In response, Prime Minister Ishiba approved emergency funds to shield small businesses and households from the tariff impact. According to Bloomberg, Ishiba also met with opposition leaders last week, calling for cross-party unity to address what he described as a “national crisis.” “Progress is good,” Ishiba said. “But we won’t compromise Japan’s interests just to announce a quick deal,” he added, as quoted by Bloomberg. The pressure is compounded by Japan’s looming upper house elections in July, where Ishiba’s political standing could be damaged if the G7 fails to yield results. US–Japan trade: Deep ties, deeper divides The US remains Japan’s second-largest trading partner after China, with exports worth over $135 billion in 2024, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance. However, 19 per cent of those exports come from the auto sector, which has been directly targeted by Trump’s tariffs, as per World Bank data. Trump has defended the duties as a necessary move to reduce the US trade deficit and strengthen domestic manufacturing. Commerce Department data this week showed the US trade gap shrinking by 55.5 per cent in April, with imports falling by a record 16.3 per cent, numbers the administration views as validation of its tariff strategy. But Japan sees things differently. Economists warn that caving to US pressure could weaken Japan’s industrial competitiveness and set a precedent for further concessions. “Japan cannot afford to be seen as conceding too much ahead of the G7,” said Noriko Hama, professor of economics at Doshisha University, speaking to Nikkei Asia. “Yet there’s immense pressure to keep US relations stable.” G7: Window for diplomacy or pressure tactics? The upcoming G7 summit from June 15–17 is widely seen as a litmus test for Japan–US ties. Trump is expected to push his agenda for “fairer trade deals”, including calls for greater market access for US agriculture and a possible rollback of Japan’s tech export restrictions. Diplomatic officials quoted by Reuters said a last-minute bilateral between Trump and Ishiba remains possible, even if not officially announced. Still, Japanese negotiators insist they are not negotiating under pressure. “We are not going to negotiate under media spectacle,” said a senior trade ministry official, speaking anonymously to Reuters. “We seek a rules-based outcome with mutual respect.” Outlook: Tokyo cautious, but determined Whether or not a deal materialises at the G7, Japan appears to be signalling one clear message, it won’t be rushed. With rising costs at home, businesses on edge, and the clock ticking toward a key election, Ishiba’s government is balancing political necessity with strategic restraint. As the G7 opens in Canada, all eyes will be on whether Trump and Ishiba can find common ground — or whether the tariff cloud will continue to loom over one of the world’s most important bilateral trade relationships. (With inputs from the agencies)

Ahead of the G7 summit, Japan pushes for a fair trade agreement with the US amid rising tariffs, economic strain, and looming elections, as PM Ishiba vows to protect national interests.

Japan pushes for trade breakthrough as Trump tariffs loom, G7 summit nears

In a move that rewrites the future of American steelmaking, US President Donald Trump has formally approved Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel, ending months of political drama, union backlash, and national security reviews.&nbsp;Trump signed an executive order on Friday, giving the green light to the controversial merger on the condition that both companies sign an agreement with the US Treasury to address national security concerns, as reported by Reuters.&nbsp;&nbsp;Within hours, Nippon Steel and US Steel confirmed they had signed the agreement, satisfying the final regulatory hurdle.&nbsp;“We look forward to putting our commitments into action to make American steelmaking and manufacturing great again,” the companies said in a joint statement, thanking President Trump, as quoted by Reuters.<h2>$11 billion investment promise and a golden share mystery</h2>As per Reuters, the agreement includes $11 billion in new investments by 2028 into US operations. Nippon Steel is also expected to invest an additional $3 billion in a new mill after 2028, a move designed to strengthen its footprint in American infrastructure.&nbsp;The merger agreement reportedly outlines commitments on governance, production, and trade, but left investors puzzled by the lack of detail on the promised “golden share”, which would supposedly grant veto power to the US government over major decisions.&nbsp;&nbsp;As per Reuters, US Senator David McCormick stated last month that the golden share would give Washington direct oversight, particularly critical given US Steel’s deep roots in Pennsylvania, a key swing state.<h2>From Biden’s rejection to Trump’s reversal</h2>The deal’s approval caps a volatile 18-month saga. Nippon Steel first announced the takeover bid in December 2023, but the United Steelworkers union quickly opposed it, warning of job losses and foreign control, as reported by Reuters.&nbsp;In January 2024, then-President Joe Biden blocked the deal on national security grounds. The companies responded with legal challenges, claiming the review process under Biden was flawed and biased again, as per Reuters.&nbsp;With Trump returning to the White House in January 2025, the companies gained a new opportunity. In April, his administration launched a 45-day national security review of the merger — as reported by Reuters, which culminated in Friday’s conditional approval.<h2>A global move in a high-stakes steel war</h2>According to Reuters, for Nippon Steel, the world’s fourth-largest steelmaker, gaining access to the US market is critical, particularly as global steel trade tensions escalate.&nbsp;&nbsp;By acquiring US Steel, the Japanese firm avoids 50 per cent tariffs currently imposed on foreign competitors and positions itself to benefit from America’s expanding infrastructure projects.&nbsp;The deal also helps Nippon Steel escape $565 million in breakup fees, which it would have owed if the deal failed, as per Reuters.&nbsp;Welcoming the development, Japan’s Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yoji Muto issued a statement on Saturday: “The government of Japan welcomes the US government’s decision… this investment will enhance innovation capabilities in the US and Japanese steel industries," as quoted by Reuters.&nbsp;The timing also aligns with Tokyo’s effort to finalise a US-Japan trade deal ahead of the G7 summit, where Trump is expected to meet Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, as per Reuters.<h2>Investors still uneasy</h2>Despite the approval, investor sentiment remains mixed.&nbsp;&nbsp;According to Reuters, US Steel shares dipped earlier on Friday after a Nippon Steel executive told Nikkei that the takeover would require “a degree of management freedom," a statement seen by many as conflicting with Trump’s previous assertion that the US would maintain control through the golden share.&nbsp;Trump had earlier referred to Nippon as a “great partner” during a rally on May 30, where he gave vague approval to an “investment," as reported by Reuters.&nbsp;The Friday order finally clarified that Nippon Steel will acquire a 100 per cent stake in US Steel, as per a spokesperson quoted by Reuters, effectively handing control of a century-old American industrial icon to Japanese ownership.<h2>Steel, politics, and symbolism</h2>For Trump, the approval of this deal is both economic and symbolic. While union disapproval and political risks were apparent, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania, the multi-billion-dollar investment commitment offers political cover. Trump is expected to highlight the merger as evidence of foreign investment flowing into the US under his watch.&nbsp;For Nippon Steel, the deal represents a bold step in its global strategy, but with long-term financial and political implications.&nbsp;&nbsp;As the Reuters report suggests, the company may face short-term pressure from investors worried about the scale of its commitments.&nbsp;Whether the mysterious golden share grants real control to the US or simply satisfies political optics remains an open question. &nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies) &nbsp;

Trump greenlights Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel with an $11 billion investment pledge and national security safeguards, ending a politically charged 18-month saga.

In a move that rewrites the future of American steelmaking, US President Donald Trump has formally approved Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion acquisition of US Steel, ending months of political drama, union backlash, and national security reviews. Trump signed an executive order on Friday, giving the green light to the controversial merger on the condition that both companies sign an agreement with the US Treasury to address national security concerns, as reported by Reuters. Within hours, Nippon Steel and US Steel confirmed they had signed the agreement, satisfying the final regulatory hurdle. “We look forward to putting our commitments into action to make American steelmaking and manufacturing great again,” the companies said in a joint statement, thanking President Trump, as quoted by Reuters. $11 billion investment promise and a golden share mystery As per Reuters, the agreement includes $11 billion in new investments by 2028 into US operations. Nippon Steel is also expected to invest an additional $3 billion in a new mill after 2028, a move designed to strengthen its footprint in American infrastructure. The merger agreement reportedly outlines commitments on governance, production, and trade, but left investors puzzled by the lack of detail on the promised “golden share”, which would supposedly grant veto power to the US government over major decisions. As per Reuters, US Senator David McCormick stated last month that the golden share would give Washington direct oversight, particularly critical given US Steel’s deep roots in Pennsylvania, a key swing state. From Biden’s rejection to Trump’s reversal The deal’s approval caps a volatile 18-month saga. Nippon Steel first announced the takeover bid in December 2023, but the United Steelworkers union quickly opposed it, warning of job losses and foreign control, as reported by Reuters. In January 2024, then-President Joe Biden blocked the deal on national security grounds. The companies responded with legal challenges, claiming the review process under Biden was flawed and biased again, as per Reuters. With Trump returning to the White House in January 2025, the companies gained a new opportunity. In April, his administration launched a 45-day national security review of the merger — as reported by Reuters, which culminated in Friday’s conditional approval. A global move in a high-stakes steel war According to Reuters, for Nippon Steel, the world’s fourth-largest steelmaker, gaining access to the US market is critical, particularly as global steel trade tensions escalate. By acquiring US Steel, the Japanese firm avoids 50 per cent tariffs currently imposed on foreign competitors and positions itself to benefit from America’s expanding infrastructure projects. The deal also helps Nippon Steel escape $565 million in breakup fees, which it would have owed if the deal failed, as per Reuters. Welcoming the development, Japan’s Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Yoji Muto issued a statement on Saturday: “The government of Japan welcomes the US government’s decision… this investment will enhance innovation capabilities in the US and Japanese steel industries," as quoted by Reuters. The timing also aligns with Tokyo’s effort to finalise a US-Japan trade deal ahead of the G7 summit, where Trump is expected to meet Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, as per Reuters. Investors still uneasy Despite the approval, investor sentiment remains mixed. According to Reuters, US Steel shares dipped earlier on Friday after a Nippon Steel executive told Nikkei that the takeover would require “a degree of management freedom," a statement seen by many as conflicting with Trump’s previous assertion that the US would maintain control through the golden share. Trump had earlier referred to Nippon as a “great partner” during a rally on May 30, where he gave vague approval to an “investment," as reported by Reuters. The Friday order finally clarified that Nippon Steel will acquire a 100 per cent stake in US Steel, as per a spokesperson quoted by Reuters, effectively handing control of a century-old American industrial icon to Japanese ownership. Steel, politics, and symbolism For Trump, the approval of this deal is both economic and symbolic. While union disapproval and political risks were apparent, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania, the multi-billion-dollar investment commitment offers political cover. Trump is expected to highlight the merger as evidence of foreign investment flowing into the US under his watch. For Nippon Steel, the deal represents a bold step in its global strategy, but with long-term financial and political implications. As the Reuters report suggests, the company may face short-term pressure from investors worried about the scale of its commitments. Whether the mysterious golden share grants real control to the US or simply satisfies political optics remains an open question. (With inputs from the agencies)

President Trump has approved Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion takeover of US Steel, sealing a landmark deal with conditions to address national security concerns.

Trump clears Nippon Steel’s $14.9 billion takeover of US Steel after 18-month battle

Donald&nbsp;Trump has disclosed tens of millions of dollars in income from cryptocurrencies, branded merchandise and luxury real estate, as per his latest financial filing since returning to the White House in January 2025.&nbsp;The report, submitted to the US Office of Government Ethics on June 13 and accessed by Reuters, offers the most detailed snapshot yet of the president’s personal business interests. And the earnings are staggering.&nbsp;At the top of the list: $57.35 million from World Liberty Financial, a Trump family crypto firm launched in 2024. The filing shows Trump owns over 15.75 billion governance tokens in the company. His three sons — Donald Jr., Eric, and Barron — are listed as co-founders on the firm’s website.&nbsp;The filing, though dated in June 2025, appears to reflect earnings through December 2024 — meaning Trump’s newer meme coin, the $TRUMP token (launched in January), isn’t even part of the declared income yet.<h2>From golf resorts to guitars: The Trump empire expands</h2>While the crypto headline drew most attention, Trump’s traditional business pillars remain robust. His Florida real estate holdings, including the Doral, Jupiter and West Palm Beach golf resorts, along with the Mar-a-Lago club generated a combined income of at least $217.7 million, as quoted by Reuters.&nbsp;Trump also reportedly earned $5 million in licensing fees from a property development venture in Vietnam.&nbsp;&nbsp;But it’s the former president’s name-brand merchandise empire that stood out for its eclecticism and profitability.&nbsp;The financial disclosure revealed Trump received royalties from a range of goods branded with his name and image, including:<ul><li>$3 million from his “Save America” coffee table book</li><li>$2.8 million from Trump-branded watches</li><li>$2.5 million from a line of Trump fragrances and sneakers</li><li>$1.3 million from the Greenwood Bible, a special edition bearing Trump’s branding</li><li>$1.05 million from a “45” signature guitar</li><li>$1.15 million from NFT licensing and digital collectibles</li></ul>These earnings were listed in the 234-page disclosure, which includes over 140 pages of stock, bond, and investment listings, as confirmed by the New York Post.<h2>Crypto, lawsuits and a media stake</h2>Apart from assets, Trump also declared liabilities, including outstanding payments in the E. Jean Carroll defamation case, currently under appeal, and a balance of at least $15,000 on an American Express credit card.&nbsp;The filing reaffirms that Trump continues to hold a major stake in Trump Media &amp; Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social. His 53 per cent share is held in a revocable trust overseen by Donald Trump Jr., and is estimated to be worth billions on paper.&nbsp;Notably, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, Trump’s earnings from $TRUMP meme coin and other new crypto ventures were excluded from this filing, since the disclosure only covered 2024.<h2>A contrast with past presidents</h2>For comparison, President Joe Biden’s 2024 financial disclosure ran just 11 pages and listed mostly conventional retirement and banking income. Vice President Kamala Harris’ disclosure was similarly brief.&nbsp;Trump’s vast portfolio, spanning digital tokens, luxury clubs, NFTs, guitars, and religious books, places him in a financial category far removed from his predecessors.&nbsp;While critics continue to raise ethical concerns about potential conflicts between policy and profit, Trump has long rejected such criticism, claiming that business success only affirms his leadership credentials.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies) &nbsp;

Trump 2025 ethics filing reveals over $57 million from crypto, $217 million from golf resorts, and earnings from NFTs, books, and branded goods—highlighting his vast business empire while in office.

Donald Trump has disclosed tens of millions of dollars in income from cryptocurrencies, branded merchandise and luxury real estate, as per his latest financial filing since returning to the White House in January 2025. The report, submitted to the US Office of Government Ethics on June 13 and accessed by Reuters, offers the most detailed snapshot yet of the president’s personal business interests. And the earnings are staggering. At the top of the list: $57.35 million from World Liberty Financial, a Trump family crypto firm launched in 2024. The filing shows Trump owns over 15.75 billion governance tokens in the company. His three sons — Donald Jr., Eric, and Barron — are listed as co-founders on the firm’s website. The filing, though dated in June 2025, appears to reflect earnings through December 2024 — meaning Trump’s newer meme coin, the $TRUMP token (launched in January), isn’t even part of the declared income yet. From golf resorts to guitars: The Trump empire expands While the crypto headline drew most attention, Trump’s traditional business pillars remain robust. His Florida real estate holdings, including the Doral, Jupiter and West Palm Beach golf resorts, along with the Mar-a-Lago club generated a combined income of at least $217.7 million, as quoted by Reuters. Trump also reportedly earned $5 million in licensing fees from a property development venture in Vietnam. But it’s the former president’s name-brand merchandise empire that stood out for its eclecticism and profitability. The financial disclosure revealed Trump received royalties from a range of goods branded with his name and image, including: $3 million from his “Save America” coffee table book $2.8 million from Trump-branded watches $2.5 million from a line of Trump fragrances and sneakers $1.3 million from the Greenwood Bible, a special edition bearing Trump’s branding $1.05 million from a “45” signature guitar $1.15 million from NFT licensing and digital collectibles These earnings were listed in the 234-page disclosure, which includes over 140 pages of stock, bond, and investment listings, as confirmed by the New York Post. Crypto, lawsuits and a media stake Apart from assets, Trump also declared liabilities, including outstanding payments in the E. Jean Carroll defamation case, currently under appeal, and a balance of at least $15,000 on an American Express credit card. The filing reaffirms that Trump continues to hold a major stake in Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of Truth Social. His 53 per cent share is held in a revocable trust overseen by Donald Trump Jr., and is estimated to be worth billions on paper. Notably, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, Trump’s earnings from $TRUMP meme coin and other new crypto ventures were excluded from this filing, since the disclosure only covered 2024. A contrast with past presidents For comparison, President Joe Biden’s 2024 financial disclosure ran just 11 pages and listed mostly conventional retirement and banking income. Vice President Kamala Harris’ disclosure was similarly brief. Trump’s vast portfolio, spanning digital tokens, luxury clubs, NFTs, guitars, and religious books, places him in a financial category far removed from his predecessors. While critics continue to raise ethical concerns about potential conflicts between policy and profit, Trump has long rejected such criticism, claiming that business success only affirms his leadership credentials. (With inputs from the agencies)

Donald Trump reported tens of millions in 2024 income from crypto, real estate, and branded merchandise in a sprawling financial disclosure.

Trump files first financial disclosure after returning to office, details here

Oil prices soared on Friday, posting their sharpest gains in over a year, as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran spooked energy markets. Brent crude settled at $74.23 a barrel, up 7.02 per cent or $4.87, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $72.98, a jump of 7.62 per cent or $4.94, according to data quoted by Reuters.&nbsp;Both benchmarks hit their highest intraday levels since January, with Brent touching $78.50 and WTI surging to $77.62 earlier in the session.&nbsp;&nbsp;Week-on-week, Brent was up 12.5 per cent and WTI climbed nearly 13 per cent—marking the most dramatic one-day swings since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and sent energy markets into a frenzy.&nbsp;The gains come amid heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East—home to a third of the world’s oil supply—raising investor concerns over potential disruptions to oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz.<h2>Markets retreat, safe havens surge</h2>The global equity markets recoiled under pressure. As per Reuters, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 1.8 per cent, the S&amp;P 500 fell over 1 per cent, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.3 per cent. Investors sought safety in gold, the US dollar, and the Swiss franc, driving those assets higher in a classic flight to safety.&nbsp;Meanwhile, speculative interest in crude oil surged. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), money managers raised their net long positions in US crude futures and options by over 15,000 contracts in the week ending June 10, reaching a total of 121,911 positions.&nbsp;&nbsp;Traders also aggressively bought WTI $80 call options, signalling expectations of further price increases, as reported by Bloomberg.&nbsp;Adding to the pressure, energy services firm Baker Hughes reported that the US oil rig count fell for the seventh straight week. The number of active oil rigs dropped by three to 439—the lowest since October 2021.<h2>Israel–Iran conflict escalates with cross-border strikes</h2>The oil rally was fuelled by a dramatic escalation in military action between Israel and Iran. On Friday, Israel confirmed that it had launched targeted air strikes on Iranian nuclear research facilities, missile production sites, and senior military personnel.&nbsp;&nbsp;As quoted by Reuters, the Israeli Defence Forces warned that this was the beginning of a “prolonged campaign” to halt Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.&nbsp;In retaliation, Iran launched more than 150 ballistic missiles and over 100 drones targeting Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. While most were intercepted, several missiles struck buildings, injuring dozens, as per updates from The Guardian.&nbsp;Despite the exchange, Iran’s oil infrastructure—including the Kharg Island terminal responsible for 90 per cent of its crude exports—remains untouched. “Israeli action has so far avoided Iranian energy infrastructure,” said Ben Hoff, head of commodity research at Societe Generale, in a note cited by Reuters.&nbsp;But analysts warn that this restraint may not last. “Any further escalation could follow an ‘energy-for-energy’ logic,” Hoff added, suggesting that an attack on one side’s oil infrastructure could provoke retaliatory strikes on the others.&nbsp;Iran, a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces around 3.3 million barrels of oil per day and exports over 2 million barrels of crude and refined fuels daily, as per estimates cited by Reuters.&nbsp;&nbsp;A disruption in its output would significantly affect global supply dynamics, especially with limited spare capacity available within OPEC+.<h2>Strait of Hormuz in focus</h2>The biggest wildcard remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated 18 to 19 million barrels of oil and fuel pass daily, roughly a fifth of global consumption. According to Rabobank, “Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran are wholly locked into one tiny passage for exports,” making any disruption a global economic threat.&nbsp;Iran has so far refrained from threatening the strait, aware that its own sea-based oil exports—primarily to China—would be crippled. “Cutting off the Strait of Hormuz would be counterproductive to Iran’s relationship with its sole oil customer, China,” said analysts at JP Morgan, as quoted by Reuters.&nbsp;Still, energy analysts are not ruling out further volatility. Goldman Sachs warned that crude prices could spike above $100 a barrel if the situation worsens, while JP Morgan has flagged a scenario where Brent hits $120 if the conflict spreads to key infrastructure or leads to prolonged shipping disruptions.<h2>Emergency response readiness</h2>In response to the turmoil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Friday that it is prepared to release strategic reserves should the situation result in significant supply disruptions. However, as quoted by Reuters, OPEC and its allies currently see no need to raise production, suggesting confidence that market fundamentals remain stable for now.&nbsp;While no physical supply has been disrupted yet, the reintroduction of a geopolitical risk premium is now firmly priced into oil markets.&nbsp;&nbsp;With tensions running high, the energy world is bracing for further volatility in the coming days. All eyes are on the next moves by Tehran and Tel Aviv—and whether this oil price spike is a warning or the beginning of a longer crisis. &nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

Soaring crude prices, driven by Israel–Iran military escalation, have revived geopolitical risk premiums and raised concerns over oil flow disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices soared on Friday, posting their sharpest gains in over a year, as escalating tensions between Israel and Iran spooked energy markets. Brent crude settled at $74.23 a barrel, up 7.02 per cent or $4.87, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at $72.98, a jump of 7.62 per cent or $4.94, according to data quoted by Reuters. Both benchmarks hit their highest intraday levels since January, with Brent touching $78.50 and WTI surging to $77.62 earlier in the session. Week-on-week, Brent was up 12.5 per cent and WTI climbed nearly 13 per cent—marking the most dramatic one-day swings since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine and sent energy markets into a frenzy. The gains come amid heightened geopolitical risks in the Middle East—home to a third of the world’s oil supply—raising investor concerns over potential disruptions to oil flows, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. Markets retreat, safe havens surge The global equity markets recoiled under pressure. As per Reuters, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped by 1.8 per cent, the S&P 500 fell over 1 per cent, and the Nasdaq dropped 1.3 per cent. Investors sought safety in gold, the US dollar, and the Swiss franc, driving those assets higher in a classic flight to safety. Meanwhile, speculative interest in crude oil surged. According to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), money managers raised their net long positions in US crude futures and options by over 15,000 contracts in the week ending June 10, reaching a total of 121,911 positions. Traders also aggressively bought WTI $80 call options, signalling expectations of further price increases, as reported by Bloomberg. Adding to the pressure, energy services firm Baker Hughes reported that the US oil rig count fell for the seventh straight week. The number of active oil rigs dropped by three to 439—the lowest since October 2021. Israel–Iran conflict escalates with cross-border strikes The oil rally was fuelled by a dramatic escalation in military action between Israel and Iran. On Friday, Israel confirmed that it had launched targeted air strikes on Iranian nuclear research facilities, missile production sites, and senior military personnel. As quoted by Reuters, the Israeli Defence Forces warned that this was the beginning of a “prolonged campaign” to halt Tehran’s nuclear ambitions. In retaliation, Iran launched more than 150 ballistic missiles and over 100 drones targeting Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. While most were intercepted, several missiles struck buildings, injuring dozens, as per updates from The Guardian. Despite the exchange, Iran’s oil infrastructure—including the Kharg Island terminal responsible for 90 per cent of its crude exports—remains untouched. “Israeli action has so far avoided Iranian energy infrastructure,” said Ben Hoff, head of commodity research at Societe Generale, in a note cited by Reuters. But analysts warn that this restraint may not last. “Any further escalation could follow an ‘energy-for-energy’ logic,” Hoff added, suggesting that an attack on one side’s oil infrastructure could provoke retaliatory strikes on the others. Iran, a founding member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), currently produces around 3.3 million barrels of oil per day and exports over 2 million barrels of crude and refined fuels daily, as per estimates cited by Reuters. A disruption in its output would significantly affect global supply dynamics, especially with limited spare capacity available within OPEC+. Strait of Hormuz in focus The biggest wildcard remains the Strait of Hormuz, through which an estimated 18 to 19 million barrels of oil and fuel pass daily, roughly a fifth of global consumption. According to Rabobank, “Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq and Iran are wholly locked into one tiny passage for exports,” making any disruption a global economic threat. Iran has so far refrained from threatening the strait, aware that its own sea-based oil exports—primarily to China—would be crippled. “Cutting off the Strait of Hormuz would be counterproductive to Iran’s relationship with its sole oil customer, China,” said analysts at JP Morgan, as quoted by Reuters. Still, energy analysts are not ruling out further volatility. Goldman Sachs warned that crude prices could spike above $100 a barrel if the situation worsens, while JP Morgan has flagged a scenario where Brent hits $120 if the conflict spreads to key infrastructure or leads to prolonged shipping disruptions. Emergency response readiness In response to the turmoil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Friday that it is prepared to release strategic reserves should the situation result in significant supply disruptions. However, as quoted by Reuters, OPEC and its allies currently see no need to raise production, suggesting confidence that market fundamentals remain stable for now. While no physical supply has been disrupted yet, the reintroduction of a geopolitical risk premium is now firmly priced into oil markets. With tensions running high, the energy world is bracing for further volatility in the coming days. All eyes are on the next moves by Tehran and Tel Aviv—and whether this oil price spike is a warning or the beginning of a longer crisis. (With inputs from the agencies)

Oil prices jumped over 7% amid escalating Israel–Iran tensions, fuelling market fears of potential supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Oil prices surge over 7% as Israel–Iran conflict reignites Middle East fears

The United States has claimed that Chinese tech giant Huawei will produce no more than 200,000 advanced AI chips in 2025, significantly below the country’s rising&nbsp;demand.&nbsp;&nbsp;But officials warn this could lull Washington into a false sense of security, as China accelerates its semiconductor ambitions and chips away at American dominance.&nbsp;As quoted by Reuters, US Commerce Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler told a congressional subcommittee on Thursday that Huawei’s Ascend AI processors—designed to rival Nvidia’s chips—will mostly stay within China due to sweeping export restrictions. But he cautioned lawmakers against complacency.&nbsp;“We shouldn’t take too much comfort in the fact that China’s production of these advanced chips is relatively small,” Kessler told the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “China is catching up quickly.”<h2>Huawei’s AI chip ambitions face a production ceiling</h2>The US has spent the past five years building a tech barrier around Chinese firms—blocking access to advanced lithography equipment, semiconductor IP, and chipmaking software. Huawei, under American sanctions since 2019, remains the centrepiece of this strategy.&nbsp;At the hearing, Kessler said most of Huawei’s projected 200,000-chip output this year would remain within China’s borders.&nbsp;&nbsp;As quoted by Reuters, he added that the figure is a “ceiling, not a floor”—reflecting Huawei’s constrained access to chip fabrication tools and high-end packaging equipment.<h2>China’s AI chip gap: Scale vs sophistication</h2>According to TechInsights, China’s domestic AI accelerator demand crossed 1.5 million units in 2024—meaning Huawei’s 2025 output would meet less than 15 per cent of market needs. In contrast, OpenAI’s Stargate facility in Texas is expected to house over 500,000 Nvidia H100-class chips, more than double Huawei’s annual production.&nbsp;Huawei’s founder and CEO Ren Zhengfei admitted in an interview with China Daily this week that its chips remain “at least one generation behind” US rivals. Still, he noted that the company is investing over $25 billion annually in R&amp;D to close the gap.&nbsp;Meanwhile, White House AI advisor David Sacks told Bloomberg that while Chinese AI models are 3–6 months behind American ones, the real differentiator is scale—not innovation. “If they close the manufacturing gap, that’s when the global balance shifts,” Sacks said.<h2>“Smuggling is happening”: US contradicts Nvidia</h2>In a sharp rebuke of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who previously told Bloomberg there was “no evidence” of advanced US chips being diverted to China, Kessler offered a blunt counterpoint, “It’s happening. It’s a fact,” he said during testimony, as quoted by Reuters. “We do see significant efforts by wrongdoers to divert AI chips.”&nbsp;Kessler urged Congress to fund 200 new enforcement officers and expand overseas teams to crack down on diversion networks using third-party nations to circumvent export bans.<h2>Backdrop: A tech war born from tariffs</h2>The AI chip dispute is merely the latest front in a broader US–China rivalry that has grown into a full-blown economic cold war over the past seven years. The roots of this conflict trace back to President Donald Trump’s first term, when the US began imposing sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods.&nbsp;The standoff escalated dramatically in February 2025, when Trump—newly returned to the White House—signed an executive order imposing a 10 per cent blanket tariff on all Chinese imports. He also revoked the de minimis exemption for low-value parcels, targeting e-commerce shipments that he said were “fentanyl pipelines.”&nbsp;Beijing hit back with tariffs on coal, liquefied natural gas, crude oil, and vehicle components. It also introduced export controls on rare earths—specifically terbium, dysprosium, and gadolinium—strategic minerals critical to high-performance electronics and military hardware.&nbsp;By March 2025, the confrontation deepened. Trump raised tariffs to 20 per cent, then up to 54 per cent under a so-called “Liberation Day” order. In response, China escalated duties on key American goods to as high as 125 per cent and filed a formal complaint against the US at the World Trade Organization.&nbsp;Both nations also hardened export controls on semiconductors, AI software, and chipmaking materials, sending shockwaves through global tech supply chains. The US tightened licensing requirements for chip design tools, while China restricted access to gallium, graphite, and other rare minerals.&nbsp;A fragile ceasefire was reached in May 2025, when negotiators from both sides met in Geneva and agreed to a 90-day moratorium on new tariffs. But the calm didn’t last.&nbsp;On June 5, a pivotal 90-minute phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping helped restore momentum. That led to high-level trade talks in London from June 9–10, where officials from both countries finalised a framework agreement to resume rare earth exports and stabilise the tech trade.&nbsp;Trump publicly declared the deal “done” on June 11, pending formal sign-off from Xi. But analysts remain cautious.<h2>What lies ahead?</h2>Although Huawei’s chip capacity remains capped for now, US officials are under no illusion that this advantage will last.&nbsp;As quoted by Bloomberg, Sacks warned that “the AI landscape is changing month by month.” If China achieves chip self-sufficiency at scale, it could reshape global power structures—not just in tech, but geopolitics too.&nbsp;For Washington, that makes enforcement, alliances, and R&amp;D investment more urgent than ever.“We are ahead today,” Kessler said. “But tomorrow is still up for grabs.”&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)

The US has spent the past five years building a tech barrier around Chinese firms—blocking access to advanced lithography equipment, semiconductor IP, and chipmaking software. 

The United States has claimed that Chinese tech giant Huawei will produce no more than 200,000 advanced AI chips in 2025, significantly below the country’s rising demand. But officials warn this could lull Washington into a false sense of security, as China accelerates its semiconductor ambitions and chips away at American dominance. As quoted by Reuters, US Commerce Under Secretary Jeffrey Kessler told a congressional subcommittee on Thursday that Huawei’s Ascend AI processors—designed to rival Nvidia’s chips—will mostly stay within China due to sweeping export restrictions. But he cautioned lawmakers against complacency. “We shouldn’t take too much comfort in the fact that China’s production of these advanced chips is relatively small,” Kessler told the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “China is catching up quickly.” Huawei’s AI chip ambitions face a production ceiling The US has spent the past five years building a tech barrier around Chinese firms—blocking access to advanced lithography equipment, semiconductor IP, and chipmaking software. Huawei, under American sanctions since 2019, remains the centrepiece of this strategy. At the hearing, Kessler said most of Huawei’s projected 200,000-chip output this year would remain within China’s borders. As quoted by Reuters, he added that the figure is a “ceiling, not a floor”—reflecting Huawei’s constrained access to chip fabrication tools and high-end packaging equipment. China’s AI chip gap: Scale vs sophistication According to TechInsights, China’s domestic AI accelerator demand crossed 1.5 million units in 2024—meaning Huawei’s 2025 output would meet less than 15 per cent of market needs. In contrast, OpenAI’s Stargate facility in Texas is expected to house over 500,000 Nvidia H100-class chips, more than double Huawei’s annual production. Huawei’s founder and CEO Ren Zhengfei admitted in an interview with China Daily this week that its chips remain “at least one generation behind” US rivals. Still, he noted that the company is investing over $25 billion annually in R&D to close the gap. Meanwhile, White House AI advisor David Sacks told Bloomberg that while Chinese AI models are 3–6 months behind American ones, the real differentiator is scale—not innovation. “If they close the manufacturing gap, that’s when the global balance shifts,” Sacks said. “Smuggling is happening”: US contradicts Nvidia In a sharp rebuke of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who previously told Bloomberg there was “no evidence” of advanced US chips being diverted to China, Kessler offered a blunt counterpoint, “It’s happening. It’s a fact,” he said during testimony, as quoted by Reuters. “We do see significant efforts by wrongdoers to divert AI chips.” Kessler urged Congress to fund 200 new enforcement officers and expand overseas teams to crack down on diversion networks using third-party nations to circumvent export bans. Backdrop: A tech war born from tariffs The AI chip dispute is merely the latest front in a broader US–China rivalry that has grown into a full-blown economic cold war over the past seven years. The roots of this conflict trace back to President Donald Trump’s first term, when the US began imposing sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods. The standoff escalated dramatically in February 2025, when Trump—newly returned to the White House—signed an executive order imposing a 10 per cent blanket tariff on all Chinese imports. He also revoked the de minimis exemption for low-value parcels, targeting e-commerce shipments that he said were “fentanyl pipelines.” Beijing hit back with tariffs on coal, liquefied natural gas, crude oil, and vehicle components. It also introduced export controls on rare earths—specifically terbium, dysprosium, and gadolinium—strategic minerals critical to high-performance electronics and military hardware. By March 2025, the confrontation deepened. Trump raised tariffs to 20 per cent, then up to 54 per cent under a so-called “Liberation Day” order. In response, China escalated duties on key American goods to as high as 125 per cent and filed a formal complaint against the US at the World Trade Organization. Both nations also hardened export controls on semiconductors, AI software, and chipmaking materials, sending shockwaves through global tech supply chains. The US tightened licensing requirements for chip design tools, while China restricted access to gallium, graphite, and other rare minerals. A fragile ceasefire was reached in May 2025, when negotiators from both sides met in Geneva and agreed to a 90-day moratorium on new tariffs. But the calm didn’t last. On June 5, a pivotal 90-minute phone call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping helped restore momentum. That led to high-level trade talks in London from June 9–10, where officials from both countries finalised a framework agreement to resume rare earth exports and stabilise the tech trade. Trump publicly declared the deal “done” on June 11, pending formal sign-off from Xi. But analysts remain cautious. What lies ahead? Although Huawei’s chip capacity remains capped for now, US officials are under no illusion that this advantage will last. As quoted by Bloomberg, Sacks warned that “the AI landscape is changing month by month.” If China achieves chip self-sufficiency at scale, it could reshape global power structures—not just in tech, but geopolitics too. For Washington, that makes enforcement, alliances, and R&D investment more urgent than ever. “We are ahead today,” Kessler said. “But tomorrow is still up for grabs.” (With inputs from the agencies)

US officials warn that Huawei’s limited AI chip output should not mask China’s rapid progress in semiconductors amid an escalating tech war.

What’s behind the US move to limit Huawei’s AI chip production in 2025?

Apple is going all in on India—and it’s not just about production anymore. It’s about survival.&nbsp;Between March and May this year, a staggering 97 per cent of iPhones exported by Apple supplier Foxconn from India were shipped to the United States, according to exclusive customs data reported by Reuters.&nbsp;&nbsp;That’s nearly double the usual average and signals a strategic redirection: Apple is now using India as its primary export base to dodge rising US tariffs on China.<h2>India to US: A one-way iPhone highway</h2>The numbers are eye-opening. Foxconn’s iPhone exports from India touched $3.2 billion in just three months. Almost all of it went to the US—up from a 2024 average of just 50 per cent.&nbsp;And May 2025 alone saw exports worth nearly $1 billion, marking the second-biggest monthly shipment ever, after the March peak of $1.3 billion.&nbsp;This shift underscores how Apple is repositioning India not just as a backup to China, but as a front-line base to serve its most lucrative market.<h2>Trump’s new tariffs trigger supply chain panic</h2>At the heart of this pivot lies a political shockwave. US President Donald Trump announced a 55 per cent tariff on Chinese goods earlier this week, escalating the trade standoff with Beijing.&nbsp;India, in contrast, faces only a 10 per cent baseline duty—though it’s still lobbying Washington to scrap a proposed 26 per cent ‘reciprocal’ levy, which Trump had temporarily put on hold.&nbsp;Caught in the crossfire, Apple is racing to protect its bottom line. With over 60 million iPhones sold annually in the US, staying dependent on Chinese manufacturing would spell crippling price hikes for American consumers.<h2>From Chennai to California: Apple speeds things up</h2>Apple isn’t just shifting where it builds—it’s overhauling how fast it delivers.&nbsp;To accelerate India-based exports, Apple chartered cargo planes to fly out billions of dollars’ worth of iPhones—including the latest iPhone 13, 14, 16 and 16e models—directly to the US.&nbsp;The company has also pushed for faster customs clearance at Chennai airport, lobbying authorities to cut processing times from 30 hours to just 6 hours, Reuters had earlier reported.<h2>India’s rise—and its cost</h2>Analysts say the export boom is just the beginning.&nbsp;“We expect iPhones made in India to account for 25 to 30 per cent of global shipments this year, up from 18 per cent in 2024,” said Prachir Singh, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, quoted by Reuters.&nbsp;But India’s rise as a smartphone hub still faces hurdles. High duties on imported components continue to inflate production costs, limiting India’s appeal as a full-scale manufacturing alternative to China.<h2>Trump vs Apple</h2>Despite the export gains, Apple isn’t exactly winning praise from Washington.&nbsp;In May, Trump publicly criticised Apple CEO Tim Cook for expanding in India.&nbsp;“We’re not interested in you building in India. India can take care of themselves. We want you to build here,” Trump reportedly told Cook, as cited by Reuters.&nbsp;The message is clear: Washington wants iPhones made in America. But for now, India is Apple’s best bet to keep prices stable in its largest market.&nbsp;Apple’s India strategy has taken on new urgency. Once seen as a slow but steady ‘China plus one’ option, India is now the epicentre of Apple’s trade war survival strategy.&nbsp;&nbsp;With production lines humming and exports climbing, the world’s most valuable company is betting big on Indian soil—even if it ruffles feathers in the White House.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies) &nbsp;

As US-China trade tensions escalate, Apple shifts production to India, exporting $3.2 billion worth of iPhones in three months to avoid new tariffs and protect its US market.

Apple is going all in on India—and it’s not just about production anymore. It’s about survival. Between March and May this year, a staggering 97 per cent of iPhones exported by Apple supplier Foxconn from India were shipped to the United States, according to exclusive customs data reported by Reuters. That’s nearly double the usual average and signals a strategic redirection: Apple is now using India as its primary export base to dodge rising US tariffs on China. India to US: A one-way iPhone highway The numbers are eye-opening. Foxconn’s iPhone exports from India touched $3.2 billion in just three months. Almost all of it went to the US—up from a 2024 average of just 50 per cent. And May 2025 alone saw exports worth nearly $1 billion, marking the second-biggest monthly shipment ever, after the March peak of $1.3 billion. This shift underscores how Apple is repositioning India not just as a backup to China, but as a front-line base to serve its most lucrative market. Trump’s new tariffs trigger supply chain panic At the heart of this pivot lies a political shockwave. US President Donald Trump announced a 55 per cent tariff on Chinese goods earlier this week, escalating the trade standoff with Beijing. India, in contrast, faces only a 10 per cent baseline duty—though it’s still lobbying Washington to scrap a proposed 26 per cent ‘reciprocal’ levy, which Trump had temporarily put on hold. Caught in the crossfire, Apple is racing to protect its bottom line. With over 60 million iPhones sold annually in the US, staying dependent on Chinese manufacturing would spell crippling price hikes for American consumers. From Chennai to California: Apple speeds things up Apple isn’t just shifting where it builds—it’s overhauling how fast it delivers. To accelerate India-based exports, Apple chartered cargo planes to fly out billions of dollars’ worth of iPhones—including the latest iPhone 13, 14, 16 and 16e models—directly to the US. The company has also pushed for faster customs clearance at Chennai airport, lobbying authorities to cut processing times from 30 hours to just 6 hours, Reuters had earlier reported. India’s rise—and its cost Analysts say the export boom is just the beginning. “We expect iPhones made in India to account for 25 to 30 per cent of global shipments this year, up from 18 per cent in 2024,” said Prachir Singh, senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, quoted by Reuters. But India’s rise as a smartphone hub still faces hurdles. High duties on imported components continue to inflate production costs, limiting India’s appeal as a full-scale manufacturing alternative to China. Trump vs Apple Despite the export gains, Apple isn’t exactly winning praise from Washington. In May, Trump publicly criticised Apple CEO Tim Cook for expanding in India. “We’re not interested in you building in India. India can take care of themselves. We want you to build here,” Trump reportedly told Cook, as cited by Reuters. The message is clear: Washington wants iPhones made in America. But for now, India is Apple’s best bet to keep prices stable in its largest market. Apple’s India strategy has taken on new urgency. Once seen as a slow but steady ‘China plus one’ option, India is now the epicentre of Apple’s trade war survival strategy. With production lines humming and exports climbing, the world’s most valuable company is betting big on Indian soil—even if it ruffles feathers in the White House. (With inputs from the agencies)

Apple ramps up iPhone exports from India to the US, turning the country into its primary manufacturing hub amid Trump’s steep China tariffs.&nbsp;

Foxconn ships 97% of India-made iPhones to US as Apple dodges Trump's China tariffs

Oil prices jumped more than 12% on Friday (June 13) following news that Israel had carried out strikes on Iran. The development raised concerns over a broader conflict in the Middle East region, potentially disrupting global oil supplies.&nbsp;West Texas Intermediate, the main US oil contract, soared 12.6 percent to $76.61 per barrel, while Brent North Sea crude jumped 12.2 percent at $77.77.&nbsp;Both major oil benchmarks surged over 12%—touching highs not seen since January—amid escalating fears of supply disruptions following Israeli strikes on Iran. The latest spike builds on gains earlier in the week as geopolitical tensions intensified.&nbsp;The shockwaves rippled across global markets. Asian stocks plunged, U.S. and European equity futures fell sharply, and investors rushed into safe havens. Gold soared past $3,400 an ounce, and bond markets rallied as yields dropped.&nbsp;"The Middle East powder keg just blew the lid off global markets," said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management to AFP. “Equity futures are plummeting. Bond yields are sinking. Gold and oil are skyrocketing.”&nbsp;Brent crude is rapidly approaching the mid-$70s, Innes noted, adding that a direct hit to the Strait of Hormuz—which handles about 20% of global oil flows—could add another $15 to the price.&nbsp;“If Iran exercises restraint, markets may bounce back. But if Tel Aviv is hit or Tehran responds aggressively, we could be looking at a scenario that reshapes the global economic outlook for the rest of 2025,” he warned.&nbsp;Earlier this week, JPMorgan Chase had cautioned that crude prices could surpass $130 a barrel if the conflict spirals into a worst-case scenario.&nbsp;Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement: "This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat.&nbsp;"We struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme. We targeted Iran's main enrichment facility at Natanz. We also struck at the heart of Iran's ballistic missile programme," he added.

Oil prices jump to two-month high as tensions escalate in Middle East

Oil prices jumped more than 12% on Friday (June 13) following news that Israel had carried out strikes on Iran. The development raised concerns over a broader conflict in the Middle East region, potentially disrupting global oil supplies. West Texas Intermediate, the main US oil contract, soared 12.6 percent to $76.61 per barrel, while Brent North Sea crude jumped 12.2 percent at $77.77. Both major oil benchmarks surged over 12%—touching highs not seen since January—amid escalating fears of supply disruptions following Israeli strikes on Iran. The latest spike builds on gains earlier in the week as geopolitical tensions intensified. The shockwaves rippled across global markets. Asian stocks plunged, U.S. and European equity futures fell sharply, and investors rushed into safe havens. Gold soared past $3,400 an ounce, and bond markets rallied as yields dropped. "The Middle East powder keg just blew the lid off global markets," said Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management to AFP. “Equity futures are plummeting. Bond yields are sinking. Gold and oil are skyrocketing.” Brent crude is rapidly approaching the mid-$70s, Innes noted, adding that a direct hit to the Strait of Hormuz—which handles about 20% of global oil flows—could add another $15 to the price. “If Iran exercises restraint, markets may bounce back. But if Tel Aviv is hit or Tehran responds aggressively, we could be looking at a scenario that reshapes the global economic outlook for the rest of 2025,” he warned. Earlier this week, JPMorgan Chase had cautioned that crude prices could surpass $130 a barrel if the conflict spirals into a worst-case scenario. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video statement: "This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove this threat. "We struck at the heart of Iran's nuclear enrichment programme. We targeted Iran's main enrichment facility at Natanz. We also struck at the heart of Iran's ballistic missile programme," he added.

Oil prices surged following Israel's strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, rising fears of a conflict in the Middle East region

As conflict intensifies across West Asia, global airlines are cancelling or rerouting flights over Iranian and Israeli airspace. What began as precautionary action has now disrupted major passenger routes, supply chains, and flight schedules — even as defence firms cash in on soaring global insecurity.&nbsp;The trigger? Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military facilities earlier this week, followed by retaliatory warnings from Tehran and partial airspace closures. The developments have not only heightened regional risk but are also fuelling a fresh wave of military spending.<h2>Airlines avoid the ‘militarised skies’</h2>Global aviation is once again on high alert.&nbsp;Dozens of international carriers — including Lufthansa, Emirates, Singapore Airlines, and Air India — have altered their flight paths to avoid Iranian, Iraqi, and Israeli airspace. As per Reuters, some long-haul flights have been diverted mid-air, while others are detouring via Central Asia or Saudi Arabia, adding up to three hours in travel time.&nbsp;The Times of India reported that Air India rerouted 16 services in just 48 hours, citing operational safety. Meanwhile, Israeli flag carrier El Al temporarily suspended flights from Tel Aviv. Analysts say the move echoes past aviation disasters, including Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in 2014 and Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, mistakenly shot down over Tehran in 2020.&nbsp;Aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions warned in a recent advisory that the growing risk of “misidentification in militarised skies” is becoming harder to mitigate as regional tensions rise.<h2>The real-world impact: Cost, chaos and cargo delays</h2>West Asian airspace lies at the heart of one of the world’s busiest flight corridors, linking Asia with Europe. Its closure has hit airlines where it hurts — the balance sheet. According to industry data cited by Reuters, rerouting flights around Iran and Israel adds US $5,000 to $10,000 per flight in fuel and overflight charges.&nbsp;Fuel costs alone make up nearly 30 per cent of an airline’s total operating expenditure. Extended flight times also mean additional crew hours, passenger delays and overburdened airport schedules. Freight operators are feeling the shockwaves too. Cargo delays have rippled through hubs like Dubai, Doha, Istanbul and Delhi — critical links in Asia–Europe logistics.&nbsp;Insurance firms, in turn, have hiked aviation war-risk premiums for carriers flying near active conflict zones.&nbsp;A 2024 precedent offers insight: when Pakistani airspace remained closed for five months, Indian carriers reported losses totalling nearly US $600 million, according to Cirium data cited by Reuters.<h2>Defence industry surges on war anxiety</h2>While airlines scramble to contain losses, the defence industry is soaring.&nbsp;As reported by Reuters, European defence manufacturers are in the middle of what analysts describe as a “supercycle”. The Stoxx Europe Aerospace &amp; Defence index has posted over 40 per cent annual returns since 2022, fuelled by rising investor confidence and state procurement.&nbsp;Meanwhile, the European Investment Bank has expanded its defence lending programme threefold — from €1 billion to €3 billion — with funds funnelled into high-tech small and mid-sized arms manufacturers across the EU.&nbsp;On the policy front, countries like the UK, Germany, and Australia have ramped up defence budgets. According to Bloomberg, defence allocations are nearing 5 per cent of GDP in some cases, with billions going into radar systems, unmanned submarines, long-range strike capabilities, and AI-powered surveillance.&nbsp;Adding to this, defence-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Europe have attracted US $6.2 billion in capital inflows so far in 2025 — nearly six times the inflows recorded during the same period last year, Bloomberg reports.<h2>Why defence thrives when skies close and what does all this mean?</h2>For every flight rerouted, there’s a supply chain recalibrated. As nations militarise skies, sea lanes, and cyberspace, private firms in the defence sector are capitalising on government urgency. War-risk insurance, drone production, missile detection, and satellite imaging are booming — all funded by state defence budgets swollen by geopolitical insecurity.&nbsp;Meanwhile, the public — flyers and freight — pays for the fallout.<h2>What lies ahead?</h2>With Iran warning of “unprecedented consequences” if Israel continues military strikes — as quoted by Reuters — and the Israeli military maintaining “maximum readiness”, regional de-escalation looks unlikely in the short term.&nbsp;Airspace closures may persist for weeks, perhaps months. Airlines face spiralling costs. Cargo firms brace for more uncertainty. But one sector is already winning — the global defence industry, whose stocks and influence continue to climb, flight by flight. &nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies) &nbsp; &nbsp;

As airspace over Iran and Israel closes amid escalating conflict, airlines suffer soaring costs and delays, while the global defence industry thrives on increased military demand.

As conflict intensifies across West Asia, global airlines are cancelling or rerouting flights over Iranian and Israeli airspace. What began as precautionary action has now disrupted major passenger routes, supply chains, and flight schedules — even as defence firms cash in on soaring global insecurity. The trigger? Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military facilities earlier this week, followed by retaliatory warnings from Tehran and partial airspace closures. The developments have not only heightened regional risk but are also fuelling a fresh wave of military spending. Airlines avoid the ‘militarised skies’ Global aviation is once again on high alert. Dozens of international carriers — including Lufthansa, Emirates, Singapore Airlines, and Air India — have altered their flight paths to avoid Iranian, Iraqi, and Israeli airspace. As per Reuters, some long-haul flights have been diverted mid-air, while others are detouring via Central Asia or Saudi Arabia, adding up to three hours in travel time. The Times of India reported that Air India rerouted 16 services in just 48 hours, citing operational safety. Meanwhile, Israeli flag carrier El Al temporarily suspended flights from Tel Aviv. Analysts say the move echoes past aviation disasters, including Malaysia Airlines Flight MH17 in 2014 and Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, mistakenly shot down over Tehran in 2020. Aviation security firm Osprey Flight Solutions warned in a recent advisory that the growing risk of “misidentification in militarised skies” is becoming harder to mitigate as regional tensions rise. The real-world impact: Cost, chaos and cargo delays West Asian airspace lies at the heart of one of the world’s busiest flight corridors, linking Asia with Europe. Its closure has hit airlines where it hurts — the balance sheet. According to industry data cited by Reuters, rerouting flights around Iran and Israel adds US $5,000 to $10,000 per flight in fuel and overflight charges. Fuel costs alone make up nearly 30 per cent of an airline’s total operating expenditure. Extended flight times also mean additional crew hours, passenger delays and overburdened airport schedules. Freight operators are feeling the shockwaves too. Cargo delays have rippled through hubs like Dubai, Doha, Istanbul and Delhi — critical links in Asia–Europe logistics. Insurance firms, in turn, have hiked aviation war-risk premiums for carriers flying near active conflict zones. A 2024 precedent offers insight: when Pakistani airspace remained closed for five months, Indian carriers reported losses totalling nearly US $600 million, according to Cirium data cited by Reuters. Defence industry surges on war anxiety While airlines scramble to contain losses, the defence industry is soaring. As reported by Reuters, European defence manufacturers are in the middle of what analysts describe as a “supercycle”. The Stoxx Europe Aerospace & Defence index has posted over 40 per cent annual returns since 2022, fuelled by rising investor confidence and state procurement. Meanwhile, the European Investment Bank has expanded its defence lending programme threefold — from €1 billion to €3 billion — with funds funnelled into high-tech small and mid-sized arms manufacturers across the EU. On the policy front, countries like the UK, Germany, and Australia have ramped up defence budgets. According to Bloomberg, defence allocations are nearing 5 per cent of GDP in some cases, with billions going into radar systems, unmanned submarines, long-range strike capabilities, and AI-powered surveillance. Adding to this, defence-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Europe have attracted US $6.2 billion in capital inflows so far in 2025 — nearly six times the inflows recorded during the same period last year, Bloomberg reports. Why defence thrives when skies close and what does all this mean? For every flight rerouted, there’s a supply chain recalibrated. As nations militarise skies, sea lanes, and cyberspace, private firms in the defence sector are capitalising on government urgency. War-risk insurance, drone production, missile detection, and satellite imaging are booming — all funded by state defence budgets swollen by geopolitical insecurity. Meanwhile, the public — flyers and freight — pays for the fallout. What lies ahead? With Iran warning of “unprecedented consequences” if Israel continues military strikes — as quoted by Reuters — and the Israeli military maintaining “maximum readiness”, regional de-escalation looks unlikely in the short term. Airspace closures may persist for weeks, perhaps months. Airlines face spiralling costs. Cargo firms brace for more uncertainty. But one sector is already winning — the global defence industry, whose stocks and influence continue to climb, flight by flight. (With inputs from the agencies)

As conflict escalates in West Asia, global airlines reroute flights to avoid Iranian and Israeli airspace, while defence stocks surge amid rising insecurity.

Airlines reroute flights over Iran–Israel tensions: Who’s paying the price and who’s profiting?

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a cautionary note, signalling that the brief rebound in global trade—fueled by firms rushing to beat US tariffs—is now losing steam. But the&nbsp; global economy remains clouded by uncertainty, with trade wars and economic nationalism reshaping long-held dynamics.&nbsp;At a press briefing Thursday, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said recent US trade negotiations—including deals with China and the UK—and a partial tariff rollback are “modestly positive” signs, as per Bloomberg.&nbsp;However, she stressed that escalating steel and aluminium tariffs, coupled with volatile import flows, point to an unpredictable road ahead.&nbsp;“We are in an environment of very high uncertainty,” Kozack said. “And uncertainty in general tends to dampen economic activity,” as quoted by Bloomberg.&nbsp;<h2>Global slowdown begins to bite</h2>Data from the US Commerce Department earlier this month showed a record 20% plunge in April imports, as companies halted the pre-emptive stockpiling of goods. As per Bloomberg, the IMF noted that this dramatic reversal reflects the exhaustion of the so-called “front-loading effect” that temporarily inflated trade volumes earlier in 2025.&nbsp;The sharp fall in imports also led to a 46 per cent narrowing of the US goods trade deficit, a development that has momentarily offset recessionary concerns in Q1. But analysts warn the effect is unlikely to sustain growth.&nbsp;“We expect second-quarter data to reflect not just weaker trade volumes but also slower consumer spending and inventory rundown,” said Rajiv Malhotra, a global economist at HSBC, as quoted by Bloomberg.<h2>IMF to revise growth forecast in July</h2>The IMF plans to release its updated World Economic Outlook&nbsp;next month. In April, the Fund had already cut its global GDP growth estimate to 2.8 per cent, down from 3.3 per cent, citing trade frictions and financial volatility, as per Bloomberg.&nbsp;Despite a temporary tariff pause by the US on April 9—part of a broader de-escalation in its dispute with China and allies—the Fund believes the global trade system is now under structural pressure.&nbsp;The World Bank&nbsp;has echoed this view, warning that trade tensions could impact two-thirds of developing economies&nbsp;and deepen inequality, especially in export-dependent regions.<h2>Trade war fatigue sets in</h2>President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy has led to steep duties on steel, aluminium, and a variety of Chinese imports. These moves were partially rolled back after recent talks in London and Geneva, but the damage may be done.&nbsp;The OECD&nbsp;now projects that global trade growth will drop to 2.8% in 2025&nbsp;and further slow to 2.2% by 2026, far below pre-pandemic averages. Emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to bear the brunt.&nbsp;“Policymakers must focus on reducing trade policy uncertainty and rebuilding trust,” Kozack said, adding that domestic reforms and diversified supply chains are essential to economic resilience, as quoted by Bloomberg.&nbsp;<h2>What’s at stake?</h2>According to Bloomberg, since 2020, EB-5 visa holders have contributed an estimated $37 billion in direct investment&nbsp;to the US economy—a flow now under threat as geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty deter high-net-worth investors.&nbsp;Meanwhile, IMF analysts, as quoted by Reuters, have warned of a growing 5 per cent probability&nbsp;that global GDP could dip below 0.4 per cent&nbsp;in worst-case scenarios if trade hostilities between major economies re-escalate.&nbsp;Adding to the gloom, US Commerce Department data cited by CNBC&nbsp;reveals that US imports in April fell to $276 billion, marking a historic monthly drop and effectively signalling the end of the short-lived surge in trade volumes that had been driven by companies stockpiling ahead of fresh US tariffs.&nbsp;The IMF’s latest signal reinforces what global businesses already suspect—2025’s early trade momentum is fading, and the world is entering a new phase of slow, uncertain growth.&nbsp;While the recent US-China detente offers hope, the path to stability will depend on consistency—something that Washington and Beijing have struggled with in recent years.&nbsp;Until then, the global trade engine may continue to sputter, caught between geopolitical crosswinds and domestic politics.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

The IMF flags an unwinding of global trade momentum following US tariff pauses, with risks of reduced GDP growth, falling imports, and rising financial instability.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a cautionary note, signalling that the brief rebound in global trade—fueled by firms rushing to beat US tariffs—is now losing steam. But the global economy remains clouded by uncertainty, with trade wars and economic nationalism reshaping long-held dynamics. At a press briefing Thursday, IMF spokesperson Julie Kozack said recent US trade negotiations—including deals with China and the UK—and a partial tariff rollback are “modestly positive” signs, as per Bloomberg. However, she stressed that escalating steel and aluminium tariffs, coupled with volatile import flows, point to an unpredictable road ahead. “We are in an environment of very high uncertainty,” Kozack said. “And uncertainty in general tends to dampen economic activity,” as quoted by Bloomberg. Global slowdown begins to bite Data from the US Commerce Department earlier this month showed a record 20% plunge in April imports, as companies halted the pre-emptive stockpiling of goods. As per Bloomberg, the IMF noted that this dramatic reversal reflects the exhaustion of the so-called “front-loading effect” that temporarily inflated trade volumes earlier in 2025. The sharp fall in imports also led to a 46 per cent narrowing of the US goods trade deficit, a development that has momentarily offset recessionary concerns in Q1. But analysts warn the effect is unlikely to sustain growth. “We expect second-quarter data to reflect not just weaker trade volumes but also slower consumer spending and inventory rundown,” said Rajiv Malhotra, a global economist at HSBC, as quoted by Bloomberg. IMF to revise growth forecast in July The IMF plans to release its updated World Economic Outlook next month. In April, the Fund had already cut its global GDP growth estimate to 2.8 per cent, down from 3.3 per cent, citing trade frictions and financial volatility, as per Bloomberg. Despite a temporary tariff pause by the US on April 9—part of a broader de-escalation in its dispute with China and allies—the Fund believes the global trade system is now under structural pressure. The World Bank has echoed this view, warning that trade tensions could impact two-thirds of developing economies and deepen inequality, especially in export-dependent regions. Trade war fatigue sets in President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policy has led to steep duties on steel, aluminium, and a variety of Chinese imports. These moves were partially rolled back after recent talks in London and Geneva, but the damage may be done. The OECD now projects that global trade growth will drop to 2.8% in 2025 and further slow to 2.2% by 2026, far below pre-pandemic averages. Emerging markets, particularly in Asia and Africa, are expected to bear the brunt. “Policymakers must focus on reducing trade policy uncertainty and rebuilding trust,” Kozack said, adding that domestic reforms and diversified supply chains are essential to economic resilience, as quoted by Bloomberg. What’s at stake? According to Bloomberg, since 2020, EB-5 visa holders have contributed an estimated $37 billion in direct investment to the US economy—a flow now under threat as geopolitical tensions and policy uncertainty deter high-net-worth investors. Meanwhile, IMF analysts, as quoted by Reuters, have warned of a growing 5 per cent probability that global GDP could dip below 0.4 per cent in worst-case scenarios if trade hostilities between major economies re-escalate. Adding to the gloom, US Commerce Department data cited by CNBC reveals that US imports in April fell to $276 billion, marking a historic monthly drop and effectively signalling the end of the short-lived surge in trade volumes that had been driven by companies stockpiling ahead of fresh US tariffs. The IMF’s latest signal reinforces what global businesses already suspect—2025’s early trade momentum is fading, and the world is entering a new phase of slow, uncertain growth. While the recent US-China detente offers hope, the path to stability will depend on consistency—something that Washington and Beijing have struggled with in recent years. Until then, the global trade engine may continue to sputter, caught between geopolitical crosswinds and domestic politics. (With inputs from the agencies)

IMF warns of slowing global trade as US tariff surges fade, risking weaker economic growth amid high uncertainty.&nbsp;

IMF warns of global trade dip as US tariff wave reverses 2025 surge

Shares of Boeing Co. plunged nearly 5 per cent on Thursday (June 12) after a deadly crash involving one of its 787 Dreamliner aircraft in India. The aircraft, operated by Air India, went down minutes after take-off from Ahmedabad, killing 241 of the 242 people on board.&nbsp;Boeing’s stock closed at US $203.60, down from US $214.04 the previous day, marking its steepest one-day drop in months.&nbsp;The incident—marking the first fatal crash for the 787 model—has rattled investor confidence and posed a major challenge for Boeing’s efforts to restore trust in its aircraft safety standards under new CEO Kelly Ortberg.&nbsp;The timing is especially critical, coming just days before the Paris Air Show where Boeing had hoped to secure fresh international orders for the Dreamliner.<h2>Shares tumble as markets reacts to Dreamliner crash</h2>Boeing shares sank sharply in early pre-market trade, dropping over 8 per cent before closing down 4.9 per cent in regular hours. The sharp sell-off reflects investor unease over what the tragedy means for the widebody 787’s safety perception—especially after years of Boeing defending the jet’s design integrity.&nbsp;As per Reuters, the widebody 787 models had never had a fatal crash until Thursday’s incident, further escalating scrutiny of Boeing’s overall track record. Analysts expect the Paris Air Show, which was expected to focus on order books and trade issues, to now revolve around the safety of Boeing jets and the investigation into the crash.&nbsp;The latest setback also raises questions about Boeing’s recovery momentum, just as Ortberg begins to steer the aerospace giant through a wave of restructuring and reputation rebuilding.<h2>A critical test for new Boeing leadership &amp; reputation under fire&nbsp;</h2>For Boeing’s newly appointed CEO, Kelly Ortberg, the crash is the first real crisis since he took over in August 2024. A former aerospace executive who came out of retirement, Ortberg was widely seen as a stabilising figure tasked with turning around Boeing’s safety culture and regaining industry trust.&nbsp;&nbsp;According to Reuters, Ortberg had recently relocated to Seattle to be closer to manufacturing operations and was set to attend next week’s Paris Air Show. That plan now comes under a cloud, with industry observers warning that the crash could dominate headlines and investor discussions.&nbsp;In a statement, Ortberg offered condolences to the victims and confirmed that Boeing was cooperating fully with Indian authorities. “Our deepest condolences go out to the loved ones of the passengers and crew on board Air India Flight 171, as well as everyone affected in Ahmedabad,” Ortberg said. “I have spoken with Air India Chairman N Chandrasekaran to offer our full support.”&nbsp;But Boeing’s troubles run deeper. The company has faced whistleblower allegations, including testimony from engineer Sam Salehpour during a 2024 US Senate hearing, where he claimed to have been sidelined after raising quality concerns on the 787 and 777 lines. The FAA is yet to release its findings from that inquiry, prompting calls from attorneys to make the report public, according to Reuters.&nbsp;Last month, Boeing narrowly avoided criminal prosecution by reaching a $1.1 billion settlement with the US Department of Justice for misleading regulators during the 737 MAX investigation.&nbsp;Though the cause of the Air India crash is still under investigation, the symbolism of a Dreamliner fatality comes at a time when Boeing is already grappling with long-standing safety scrutiny, particularly over its 737 MAX series.&nbsp;The 737 MAX programme was infamously grounded globally for 20 months after two fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019 killed 346 people. A design flaw in the MCAS flight control software was later blamed. Since then, Boeing has faced fines, criminal investigations, lawsuits, and whistleblower allegations that have raised further questions about its internal safety culture.&nbsp;Although no technical fault has yet been attributed in the Air India crash, aviation experts caution that even speculation around Boeing’s involvement can have a chilling effect on market and consumer confidence.<h2>US regulators and Boeing under scrutiny</h2>As per Reuters, the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) announced it would send a team of investigators to India to support the probe. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and engine maker GE Aerospace are also coordinating with India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB).&nbsp;US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy stated, “The US government will not hesitate to implement any safety recommendations that may arise. We will follow the facts and put safety first.”&nbsp;Boeing said in a statement it was aware of initial reports and was working to gather more information, adding that it will defer public comment to the Indian AAIB in accordance with international aviation protocols.<h2>A blow to Air India’s global ambitions</h2>The crash comes at a critical time for Air India, which has been aggressively expanding its fleet under Tata Group’s ownership. In February 2023, Air India placed one of the world’s largest aircraft orders: a combined 470 jets, including 290 from Boeing—among them 20 more Dreamliners, as per company disclosures.&nbsp;The Ahmedabad-London service was being operated using a Boeing 787-8 delivered in 2014, with over 41,000 hours of flying time, according to aviation consultancy Cirium. Industry experts now believe the crash could derail timelines for aircraft deliveries and dent customer confidence in Air India’s transcontinental&nbsp;services.<h2>Dreamliner’s safety record and past issues</h2>The Boeing 787 Dreamliner entered service in 2011 and was hailed as a next-generation fuel-efficient widebody jet. It has had an impeccable safety record until now, even as it faced years of manufacturing flaws, battery fires, and fuselage quality issues, all of which led to delivery delays and regulatory interventions.&nbsp;In 2024, the Dreamliner was under scrutiny again during a US Senate hearing after whistleblower Sam Salehpour alleged safety lapses at Boeing’s manufacturing plants. According to Reuters, Salehpour claimed he was sidelined for reporting structural defects on the 787 and 777 programmes. Boeing said retaliation was “strictly prohibited” and cited a rise in internal safety reports as a sign of improving culture.&nbsp;Just weeks ago, Ortberg told a financial conference that the FAA’s decision to permit increased Dreamliner output was “an important milestone” in Boeing’s recovery.<h2>The Ahmedabad crash: what we know so far</h2>Air India Flight AI171 was a London-bound 787-8 aircraft that crashed shortly after taking off from Ahmedabad’s Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport on June 12. The aircraft issued a mayday call moments after departure before disappearing from radar and crashing in the Meghaninagar area near the airport.&nbsp;According to eyewitnesses, a massive fireball was visible, followed by rising plumes of black smoke. Among the 242 people on board were 169 Indian nationals, 53 British citizens, seven Portuguese and one Canadian, as per initial passenger data.&nbsp;Officials have yet to confirm the cause of the crash. As per Reuters, it was not immediately clear what led to the disaster, though black box recovery and cockpit voice recordings will offer vital clues in the days ahead. The AAIB is leading the investigation with support from Boeing, US regulators, and GE Aerospace.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp; &nbsp;

The deadly crash of an Air India Boeing 787 in Ahmedabad has triggered international investigations and renewed pressure on Boeing’s leadership and safety culture.

Shares of Boeing Co. plunged nearly 5 per cent on Thursday (June 12) after a deadly crash involving one of its 787 Dreamliner aircraft in India. The aircraft, operated by Air India, went down minutes after take-off from Ahmedabad, killing 241 of the 242 people on board. Boeing’s stock closed at US $203.60, down from US $214.04 the previous day, marking its steepest one-day drop in months. The incident—marking the first fatal crash for the 787 model—has rattled investor confidence and posed a major challenge for Boeing’s efforts to restore trust in its aircraft safety standards under new CEO Kelly Ortberg. The timing is especially critical, coming just days before the Paris Air Show where Boeing had hoped to secure fresh international orders for the Dreamliner. Shares tumble as markets reacts to Dreamliner crash Boeing shares sank sharply in early pre-market trade, dropping over 8 per cent before closing down 4.9 per cent in regular hours. The sharp sell-off reflects investor unease over what the tragedy means for the widebody 787’s safety perception—especially after years of Boeing defending the jet’s design integrity. As per Reuters, the widebody 787 models had never had a fatal crash until Thursday’s incident, further escalating scrutiny of Boeing’s overall track record. Analysts expect the Paris Air Show, which was expected to focus on order books and trade issues, to now revolve around the safety of Boeing jets and the investigation into the crash. The latest setback also raises questions about Boeing’s recovery momentum, just as Ortberg begins to steer the aerospace giant through a wave of restructuring and reputation rebuilding. A critical test for new Boeing leadership & reputation under fire For Boeing’s newly appointed CEO, Kelly Ortberg, the crash is the first real crisis since he took over in August 2024. A former aerospace executive who came out of retirement, Ortberg was widely seen as a stabilising figure tasked with turning around Boeing’s safety culture and regaining industry trust. According to Reuters, Ortberg had recently relocated to Seattle to be closer to manufacturing operations and was set to attend next week’s Paris Air Show. That plan now comes under a cloud, with industry observers warning that the crash could dominate headlines and investor discussions. In a statement, Ortberg offered condolences to the victims and confirmed that Boeing was cooperating fully with Indian authorities. “Our deepest condolences go out to the loved ones of the passengers and crew on board Air India Flight 171, as well as everyone affected in Ahmedabad,” Ortberg said. “I have spoken with Air India Chairman N Chandrasekaran to offer our full support.” But Boeing’s troubles run deeper. The company has faced whistleblower allegations, including testimony from engineer Sam Salehpour during a 2024 US Senate hearing, where he claimed to have been sidelined after raising quality concerns on the 787 and 777 lines. The FAA is yet to release its findings from that inquiry, prompting calls from attorneys to make the report public, according to Reuters. Last month, Boeing narrowly avoided criminal prosecution by reaching a $1.1 billion settlement with the US Department of Justice for misleading regulators during the 737 MAX investigation. Though the cause of the Air India crash is still under investigation, the symbolism of a Dreamliner fatality comes at a time when Boeing is already grappling with long-standing safety scrutiny, particularly over its 737 MAX series. The 737 MAX programme was infamously grounded globally for 20 months after two fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019 killed 346 people. A design flaw in the MCAS flight control software was later blamed. Since then, Boeing has faced fines, criminal investigations, lawsuits, and whistleblower allegations that have raised further questions about its internal safety culture. Although no technical fault has yet been attributed in the Air India crash, aviation experts caution that even speculation around Boeing’s involvement can have a chilling effect on market and consumer confidence. US regulators and Boeing under scrutiny As per Reuters, the US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) announced it would send a team of investigators to India to support the probe. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) and engine maker GE Aerospace are also coordinating with India’s Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB). US Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy stated, “The US government will not hesitate to implement any safety recommendations that may arise. We will follow the facts and put safety first.” Boeing said in a statement it was aware of initial reports and was working to gather more information, adding that it will defer public comment to the Indian AAIB in accordance with international aviation protocols. A blow to Air India’s global ambitions The crash comes at a critical time for Air India, which has been aggressively expanding its fleet under Tata Group’s ownership. In February 2023, Air India placed one of the world’s largest aircraft orders: a combined 470 jets, including 290 from Boeing—among them 20 more Dreamliners, as per company disclosures. The Ahmedabad-London service was being operated using a Boeing 787-8 delivered in 2014, with over 41,000 hours of flying time, according to aviation consultancy Cirium. Industry experts now believe the crash could derail timelines for aircraft deliveries and dent customer confidence in Air India’s transcontinental services. Dreamliner’s safety record and past issues The Boeing 787 Dreamliner entered service in 2011 and was hailed as a next-generation fuel-efficient widebody jet. It has had an impeccable safety record until now, even as it faced years of manufacturing flaws, battery fires, and fuselage quality issues, all of which led to delivery delays and regulatory interventions. In 2024, the Dreamliner was under scrutiny again during a US Senate hearing after whistleblower Sam Salehpour alleged safety lapses at Boeing’s manufacturing plants. According to Reuters, Salehpour claimed he was sidelined for reporting structural defects on the 787 and 777 programmes. Boeing said retaliation was “strictly prohibited” and cited a rise in internal safety reports as a sign of improving culture. Just weeks ago, Ortberg told a financial conference that the FAA’s decision to permit increased Dreamliner output was “an important milestone” in Boeing’s recovery. The Ahmedabad crash: what we know so far Air India Flight AI171 was a London-bound 787-8 aircraft that crashed shortly after taking off from Ahmedabad’s Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel International Airport on June 12. The aircraft issued a mayday call moments after departure before disappearing from radar and crashing in the Meghaninagar area near the airport. According to eyewitnesses, a massive fireball was visible, followed by rising plumes of black smoke. Among the 242 people on board were 169 Indian nationals, 53 British citizens, seven Portuguese and one Canadian, as per initial passenger data. Officials have yet to confirm the cause of the crash. As per Reuters, it was not immediately clear what led to the disaster, though black box recovery and cockpit voice recordings will offer vital clues in the days ahead. The AAIB is leading the investigation with support from Boeing, US regulators, and GE Aerospace. (With inputs from the agencies)

Boeing shares sank after an Air India 787 Dreamliner crash in Ahmedabad killed 241 people, sparking fresh scrutiny of the aircraft’s safety record.

Boeing faces fresh turmoil as Air India Dreamliner crash triggers share drop, leadership and safety concerns

Wall Street stocks dipped early on Thursday (June 12) after fresh trade war rhetoric from the President Donald Trump, while Boeing shares tumbled following a brutal Air India crash on a 787 jet.&nbsp;Just hours after Trump reached a new detente with China on trade tensions, the president threatened to "send letters out" with an ultimatum to other trading partners.&nbsp;Meanwhile, Boeing shares shed about five percent after a London-bound 787 Dreamliner crashed in western India, likely killing all 242 people on board.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/-that-was-my-wife-says-husband-of-canadian-dentist-mother-of-one-year-old-killed-in-ahmedabad-plane-crash-1749749683922">'That was my wife', says husband of Canadian dentist, mother of one-year-old killed in Ahmedabad plane crash</a>&nbsp;About 25 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.4 percent at 42,705.52.&nbsp;The broad-based S&amp;P 500 slipped 0.1 percent to 6,018.24, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index also declined 0.1 percent to 19,595.85.&nbsp;Data showed that wholesale prices rose 0.1 percent last month, a modest uptick as analysts continue to caution that Trump's tariffs could lift inflation in the coming months.&nbsp;Among other stocks, Oracle surged 12.1 percent following an upbeat earnings report. The software giant scored eight percent revenue growth in the last year but predicted the coming year would be “even better.”&nbsp;Boeing said it was in contact with Air India and stands ready to support them. The aviation giant has been attempting to rebound from a series of setbacks following a labor strike last year in the United States and fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019 of the 737 MAX. Disclaimer: This story has been published from a news agency feed with minimal edits to adhere to WION's style guide. The headline may have been changed to better reflect the content of the story or to make it more suitable for WION audience.

Boeing share price nosedives 5% after Air India flight crashes in Ahmedabad

Wall Street stocks dipped early on Thursday (June 12) after fresh trade war rhetoric from the President Donald Trump, while Boeing shares tumbled following a brutal Air India crash on a 787 jet. Just hours after Trump reached a new detente with China on trade tensions, the president threatened to "send letters out" with an ultimatum to other trading partners. Meanwhile, Boeing shares shed about five percent after a London-bound 787 Dreamliner crashed in western India, likely killing all 242 people on board. Also Read: 'That was my wife', says husband of Canadian dentist, mother of one-year-old killed in Ahmedabad plane crash About 25 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.4 percent at 42,705.52. The broad-based S&P 500 slipped 0.1 percent to 6,018.24, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index also declined 0.1 percent to 19,595.85. Data showed that wholesale prices rose 0.1 percent last month, a modest uptick as analysts continue to caution that Trump's tariffs could lift inflation in the coming months. Among other stocks, Oracle surged 12.1 percent following an upbeat earnings report. The software giant scored eight percent revenue growth in the last year but predicted the coming year would be “even better.” Boeing said it was in contact with Air India and stands ready to support them. The aviation giant has been attempting to rebound from a series of setbacks following a labor strike last year in the United States and fatal crashes in 2018 and 2019 of the 737 MAX. Disclaimer: This story has been published from a news agency feed with minimal edits to adhere to WION's style guide. The headline may have been changed to better reflect the content of the story or to make it more suitable for WION audience.

About 25 minutes into trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.4 percent at 42,705.52

India’s retail inflation, measured by the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 2.82 per cent in May 2025, down from 3.16 per cent in April, according to provisional data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).&nbsp;This marks the lowest retail inflation print since February 2019, reinforcing expectations of continued price stability in the near term.Food inflation, a key driver of the overall consumer price movement, dropped sharply to 0.99 per cent in May, compared to 1.78 per cent in April. The last time food inflation was this low was in October 2021. The moderation was largely driven by a decline in the prices of vegetables, pulses, cereals, fruits, and sugar products.&nbsp;Headline inflation declined by 34 basis points (bps) month-on-month, and food inflation dropped 79 bps—underscoring the impact of favourable base effects and improved food supply conditions.&nbsp;Notably, the rural headline inflation rate fell to 2.59 per cent in May from 2.92 per cent in April, while urban inflation moderated to 3.07 per cent from 3.36 per cent.Among other categories, housing inflation rose slightly to 3.16 per cent in May from 3.06 per cent in April. Education inflation remained largely stable at 4.12 per cent, and health inflation edged up to 4.34 per cent. Transport and communication inflation increased to 3.85 per cent, while fuel and light inflation softened to 2.78 per cent from 2.92 per cent.Kerala recorded the highest state-level inflation at 6.46, followed by Punjab (5.21 per cent), Jammu &amp; Kashmir (4.55 per cent), Haryana (3.67 per cent), and Uttarakhand (3.47 per cent).<h2>In line with market expectations</h2>The sharp fall in inflation has raised hopes of sustained price stability. Bank of Baroda, in a recent report, projected CPI inflation at 2.7 per cent for May, citing easing food prices and better supply conditions. This aligns with the observed trend and suggests that both consumers and policymakers may benefit from continued low inflationary pressure in the coming months.Analysts are also closely watching monsoon developments. Though the monsoon arrived early, it has weakened since late May. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a revival starting June 13, which is crucial for the Kharif crop sowing season and will have a direct bearing on future food inflation trends.<h2>RBI’s stance on inflation</h2>The Reserve Bank of India slashed the repo rate to 5.5% and shifted its stance from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will take a data-driven approach going forward.The RBI projects CPI inflation for FY26 at 3.7 per cent. Risks remain balanced, with the central bank urging caution due to potential weather-related shocks and global commodity price volatility.In the broader context, softening inflation in the United States and other major economies is adding to global optimism about easing interest rate cycles, though India’s recent shift in stance indicates it will be more cautious going forward and not follow suit blindly.As things stand, India’s inflation trajectory appears stable—a positive sign for households and businesses—even as the RBI remains focused on preserving the delicate balance between growth and price stability.

Food inflation dropped sharply to 0.99 per cent in May, compared to 1.78 per cent in April, lowest since October 2021. The moderation was largely driven by a decline in the prices of vegetables, pulses, cereals, fruits, and sugar products.

India’s retail inflation, measured by the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 2.82 per cent in May 2025, down from 3.16 per cent in April, according to provisional data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). This marks the lowest retail inflation print since February 2019, reinforcing expectations of continued price stability in the near term. Food inflation, a key driver of the overall consumer price movement, dropped sharply to 0.99 per cent in May, compared to 1.78 per cent in April. The last time food inflation was this low was in October 2021. The moderation was largely driven by a decline in the prices of vegetables, pulses, cereals, fruits, and sugar products. Headline inflation declined by 34 basis points (bps) month-on-month, and food inflation dropped 79 bps—underscoring the impact of favourable base effects and improved food supply conditions. Notably, the rural headline inflation rate fell to 2.59 per cent in May from 2.92 per cent in April, while urban inflation moderated to 3.07 per cent from 3.36 per cent. Among other categories, housing inflation rose slightly to 3.16 per cent in May from 3.06 per cent in April. Education inflation remained largely stable at 4.12 per cent, and health inflation edged up to 4.34 per cent. Transport and communication inflation increased to 3.85 per cent, while fuel and light inflation softened to 2.78 per cent from 2.92 per cent. Kerala recorded the highest state-level inflation at 6.46, followed by Punjab (5.21 per cent), Jammu & Kashmir (4.55 per cent), Haryana (3.67 per cent), and Uttarakhand (3.47 per cent). In line with market expectations The sharp fall in inflation has raised hopes of sustained price stability. Bank of Baroda, in a recent report, projected CPI inflation at 2.7 per cent for May, citing easing food prices and better supply conditions. This aligns with the observed trend and suggests that both consumers and policymakers may benefit from continued low inflationary pressure in the coming months. Analysts are also closely watching monsoon developments. Though the monsoon arrived early, it has weakened since late May. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a revival starting June 13, which is crucial for the Kharif crop sowing season and will have a direct bearing on future food inflation trends. RBI’s stance on inflation The Reserve Bank of India slashed the repo rate to 5.5% and shifted its stance from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will take a data-driven approach going forward. The RBI projects CPI inflation for FY26 at 3.7 per cent. Risks remain balanced, with the central bank urging caution due to potential weather-related shocks and global commodity price volatility. In the broader context, softening inflation in the United States and other major economies is adding to global optimism about easing interest rate cycles, though India’s recent shift in stance indicates it will be more cautious going forward and not follow suit blindly. As things stand, India’s inflation trajectory appears stable—a positive sign for households and businesses—even as the RBI remains focused on preserving the delicate balance between growth and price stability.

Food inflation dropped sharply to 0.99 per cent in May, compared to 1.78 per cent in April, lowest since October 2021. The moderation was largely driven by a decline in the prices of vegetables, pulses, cereals, fruits, and sugar products.

India’s retail inflation eases to 2.82% in May, lowest in 75 months

The Indian stock markets have delivered a standout performance since March 2025. Listed Indian stocks have added a market capitalisation (m-cap) of one trillion dollars in the said duration.&nbsp;This surge, driven by a strong rally following a five-month correction from October 2024 to February 2025, marks a 21 per cent jump, which marks the highest gain among the world’s top 10 markets. Reports suggest that India's market cap has risen above $5 trillion—that places Indian markets fifth globally.The United States remains the largest market in the world, China is second, Japan is third while Hong Kong and India remain separated by a slim margin.The rally in Indian markets was followed by a correction phase between October 2024 and February 2025. The Nifty and the Sensex are up over 12 per cent during that period.&nbsp;India's market capitalisation had increased over six times in the last 11 years—from ₹74 lakh crore ($1.2 trillion) in May 2014 to around ₹450 lakh crore ($5.2 trillion) in 2025.The broader markets have witnessed even stronger momentum. Mid-caps are up close to 20 per cent while small caps are up over 25 per cent.&nbsp;Top performing markets in 2025:(As of June 11 closing bell)- India up 20 per cent- Germany up 14 per cent- Canada up 11 per cent- Hong Kong up 9 per centFor perspective, US Markets are up just 2.7 per cent.That makes Indian markets a rare outperformer in a challenging equity market.While the rally has sparked optimism in Indian markets, experts say valuations have been pushed higher. They say some sectors show frothy valuations, especially in an uncertain global trade scenario.The recent earnings season paints a mixed picture, while sectors like financials reported strong earnings, tech, and consumption-driven sectors revised their guidance lower. The outlook for future earnings in several sectors has also dimmed.But as global capital continues its search for strong returns, India's relatively high growth forecast, strong retail investor participation, and market-friendly government policies make it one of the top markets for long-term investors.

While the rally has sparked optimism in Indian markets, experts say valuations have been pushed higher.

The Indian stock markets have delivered a standout performance since March 2025. Listed Indian stocks have added a market capitalisation (m-cap) of one trillion dollars in the said duration. This surge, driven by a strong rally following a five-month correction from October 2024 to February 2025, marks a 21 per cent jump, which marks the highest gain among the world’s top 10 markets. Reports suggest that India's market cap has risen above $5 trillion—that places Indian markets fifth globally. The United States remains the largest market in the world, China is second, Japan is third while Hong Kong and India remain separated by a slim margin. The rally in Indian markets was followed by a correction phase between October 2024 and February 2025. The Nifty and the Sensex are up over 12 per cent during that period. India's market capitalisation had increased over six times in the last 11 years—from ₹74 lakh crore ($1.2 trillion) in May 2014 to around ₹450 lakh crore ($5.2 trillion) in 2025. The broader markets have witnessed even stronger momentum. Mid-caps are up close to 20 per cent while small caps are up over 25 per cent. Top performing markets in 2025: (As of June 11 closing bell) - India up 20 per cent - Germany up 14 per cent - Canada up 11 per cent - Hong Kong up 9 per cent For perspective, US Markets are up just 2.7 per cent. That makes Indian markets a rare outperformer in a challenging equity market. While the rally has sparked optimism in Indian markets, experts say valuations have been pushed higher. They say some sectors show frothy valuations, especially in an uncertain global trade scenario. The recent earnings season paints a mixed picture, while sectors like financials reported strong earnings, tech, and consumption-driven sectors revised their guidance lower. The outlook for future earnings in several sectors has also dimmed. But as global capital continues its search for strong returns, India's relatively high growth forecast, strong retail investor participation, and market-friendly government policies make it one of the top markets for long-term investors.

While the rally has sparked optimism in Indian markets, experts say valuations have been pushed higher.

Indian markets outperform global peers since March 2025, add $1 trillion to M-cap

With just days to go before the G7 leaders’ summit in Canada, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has sent a strong message to Washington: Tokyo is open to progress, but will not be pressured into a rushed trade agreement that sacrifices national interest.&nbsp;“If there’s progress before I meet the president, that’s in and of itself good,” PM Ishiba said at a press conference in Tokyo on Thursday. “But what’s important is to achieve an agreement that’s beneficial to both Japan and the US. We won’t compromise Japan’s interests by prioritising a quick deal,” he added, as quoted by Bloomberg.&nbsp;The remarks come amid mounting speculation that PM Ishiba could meet US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Quebec, set to begin Sunday. However, PM Ishiba clarified that no final schedule had been set for a bilateral meeting.&nbsp;The Japanese leader also met opposition party chiefs earlier in the day, calling for cross-party unity in what he described as a “national crisis” caused by rising US tariffs.<h2>Japan–US trade tensions: From tariffs to economic tremors</h2>The latest standoff stems from a renewed trade offensive launched by President Trump in April 2025. Citing national security concerns, Washington imposed sweeping tariffs on automotive imports from Japan, targeting a sector that makes up nearly 19 per cent of Japan’s exports to the US, according to World Bank data.&nbsp;Trump’s executive order slapped a 25 per cent tariff on Japanese cars and parts, dealing a major blow to Japan’s manufacturing exports, which heavily rely on the US market. In 2024, Japanese exports to the US totalled over $135 billion, making the US Japan’s second-largest trading partner after China, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance.&nbsp;Japan responded cautiously but firmly. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) warned that the tariffs could tip the country into a technical recession, especially as industrial output and consumer sentiment remain fragile after a weak first quarter in 2025.&nbsp;Tokyo’s top trade envoy, Ryosei Akazawa, is now preparing to fly to North America this week to continue negotiations and seek an exemption or partial rollback of the new levies. Analysts say Japan is navigating a delicate balance, seeking to avoid a trade war while defending its strategic economic sectors.&nbsp;“Japan cannot afford to be seen as conceding too much ahead of the G7,” said Noriko Hama, professor of economics at Doshisha University, speaking to Nikkei Asia. “Yet there’s immense pressure to keep US relations stable, given Japan’s deep reliance on US defence guarantees and export markets.”<h2>G7 summit: An opportunity, but no illusions</h2>The Group of Seven summit, hosted in Charlevoix, Canada, from June 15–17, will bring together the leaders of the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Canada. With global trade tensions escalating—not just between the US and Japan, but also across the US-EU and US-China corridors—this year’s summit is expected to focus heavily on economic cooperation and supply chain resilience.&nbsp;While no formal US–Japan meeting has been confirmed, diplomatic officials say that both sides are leaving the door open for a last-minute bilateral. Trump has been publicly bullish about achieving “fairer deals” with key trading partners and may use the G7 platform to push Japan toward tariff concessions or increased market access for US agricultural goods.&nbsp;But Japanese officials remain cautious. “We are not going to negotiate under pressure or media spectacle,” said a senior trade ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity to Reuters. “We seek a rules-based outcome with mutual respect.”<h2>Outlook: Cautious, calm, but pressure mounts</h2>As the G7 summit approaches, Tokyo appears determined to show resolve, welcoming diplomatic progress but resisting any deal made in haste.Whether President Trump and PM Ishiba meet or not, the coming days will test Japan’s ability to manage diplomacy with its largest security ally while fending off economic headwinds at home.&nbsp;With its domestic economy already under stress and businesses lobbying for relief, Japan’s stance underscores a deeper recalibration in US–Japan trade ties—one where mutual interest must now contend with political imperatives on both sides. &nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

The remarks come amid mounting speculation that PM Ishiba could meet US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Quebec, set to begin Sunday

With just days to go before the G7 leaders’ summit in Canada, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has sent a strong message to Washington: Tokyo is open to progress, but will not be pressured into a rushed trade agreement that sacrifices national interest. “If there’s progress before I meet the president, that’s in and of itself good,” PM Ishiba said at a press conference in Tokyo on Thursday. “But what’s important is to achieve an agreement that’s beneficial to both Japan and the US. We won’t compromise Japan’s interests by prioritising a quick deal,” he added, as quoted by Bloomberg. The remarks come amid mounting speculation that PM Ishiba could meet US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Quebec, set to begin Sunday. However, PM Ishiba clarified that no final schedule had been set for a bilateral meeting. The Japanese leader also met opposition party chiefs earlier in the day, calling for cross-party unity in what he described as a “national crisis” caused by rising US tariffs. Japan–US trade tensions: From tariffs to economic tremors The latest standoff stems from a renewed trade offensive launched by President Trump in April 2025. Citing national security concerns, Washington imposed sweeping tariffs on automotive imports from Japan, targeting a sector that makes up nearly 19 per cent of Japan’s exports to the US, according to World Bank data. Trump’s executive order slapped a 25 per cent tariff on Japanese cars and parts, dealing a major blow to Japan’s manufacturing exports, which heavily rely on the US market. In 2024, Japanese exports to the US totalled over $135 billion, making the US Japan’s second-largest trading partner after China, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance. Japan responded cautiously but firmly. The Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) warned that the tariffs could tip the country into a technical recession, especially as industrial output and consumer sentiment remain fragile after a weak first quarter in 2025. Tokyo’s top trade envoy, Ryosei Akazawa, is now preparing to fly to North America this week to continue negotiations and seek an exemption or partial rollback of the new levies. Analysts say Japan is navigating a delicate balance, seeking to avoid a trade war while defending its strategic economic sectors. “Japan cannot afford to be seen as conceding too much ahead of the G7,” said Noriko Hama, professor of economics at Doshisha University, speaking to Nikkei Asia. “Yet there’s immense pressure to keep US relations stable, given Japan’s deep reliance on US defence guarantees and export markets.” G7 summit: An opportunity, but no illusions The Group of Seven summit, hosted in Charlevoix, Canada, from June 15–17, will bring together the leaders of the US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, and Canada. With global trade tensions escalating—not just between the US and Japan, but also across the US-EU and US-China corridors—this year’s summit is expected to focus heavily on economic cooperation and supply chain resilience. While no formal US–Japan meeting has been confirmed, diplomatic officials say that both sides are leaving the door open for a last-minute bilateral. Trump has been publicly bullish about achieving “fairer deals” with key trading partners and may use the G7 platform to push Japan toward tariff concessions or increased market access for US agricultural goods. But Japanese officials remain cautious. “We are not going to negotiate under pressure or media spectacle,” said a senior trade ministry official, speaking on condition of anonymity to Reuters. “We seek a rules-based outcome with mutual respect.” Outlook: Cautious, calm, but pressure mounts As the G7 summit approaches, Tokyo appears determined to show resolve, welcoming diplomatic progress but resisting any deal made in haste. Whether President Trump and PM Ishiba meet or not, the coming days will test Japan’s ability to manage diplomacy with its largest security ally while fending off economic headwinds at home. With its domestic economy already under stress and businesses lobbying for relief, Japan’s stance underscores a deeper recalibration in US–Japan trade ties—one where mutual interest must now contend with political imperatives on both sides. (With inputs from the agencies)

Amid mounting US tariff pressure, Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has sent a strong message to Washington.&nbsp;

Japan braces for tough G7 talks, PM Ishiba says it won’t accept ‘quick fix’ US trade deal

The UK economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in April 2025, its steepest monthly contraction since October 2023, as official data released on June 12 showed a sharp fall in exports and weaker consumer activity.&nbsp;The contraction was significantly worse than economists’ forecast of a 0.1 per cent decline and followed modest growth of 0.2 per cent in March and 0.5 per cent in February.The Office for National Statistics (ONS) attributed the decline primarily to the end of a temporary tax break on property purchases and a collapse in goods exports to the United States following the imposition of new US tariffs.&nbsp;Legal and real estate services, along with car manufacturers, were among the worst-hit sectors.“After increasing for each of the four preceding months, April saw the largest monthly fall on record in goods exports to the United States, with decreases seen across most types of goods,” Liz McKeown, Director of Economic Statistics at the ONS, told the press.Despite the monthly slump, GDP rose 0.7 per cent in the three months to April, but the latest figures have prompted concern about the UK’s growth trajectory amid rising costs and international trade tensions.<h2>Exports plunge amid US tariffs</h2>The most significant blow to April’s output came from a dramatic decline in trade with the US. British goods exports to America dropped by £2 billion ($2.7 billion) in a single month—the largest monthly fall since records began in 1997—driven by tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump earlier this year.The US imposed wide-ranging duties of up to 25 per cent on key British exports, including steel, aluminium, and automobiles.&nbsp;The car industry, Britain’s top goods exporter to the US, saw output cut and exports tumble as manufacturers scrambled to adjust. One in eight cars built in the UK is exported to the US, underscoring the sector’s vulnerability.Manufacturing as a whole contracted by 0.6 per cent in April, while services—which account for around 80 per cent of UK economic output—shrank by 0.4 per cent. Real estate, legal services, and financial intermediaries suffered sharp declines, with the end of the property tax holiday also causing a drop in housing transactions.Meanwhile, the UK’s trade deficit in goods widened by £4.4 billion ($5.96 billion) to £60 billion ($81.39 billion) in the three months to April. The country’s surplus in services, often a stabilising factor, dipped by £500 million ($678.22 million) to £48.5 billion ($65.78 billion).Though the UK and US announced a preliminary trade deal in early May, it has yet to be fully implemented. A 10 per cent blanket tariff still applies to most British goods, and higher levies on car and steel exports remain in place, with a final agreement expected by July 9.<h2>Tax burden, job cuts add to economic strain</h2>Alongside external trade shocks, domestic policy changes also weighed on output. The rise in employer National Insurance contributions in April, coupled with higher energy, water, and council tax bills, added to business costs.&nbsp;Employers now pay 15 per cent in national insurance contributions, up from 13.8 per cent, on employee earnings above £175 per week ($237.38).Figures from HMRC show that payroll employment fell by 109,000 in May—the largest drop since the first Covid-19 lockdown in 2020. Since Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget, more than 250,000 jobs have reportedly been lost.Reeves acknowledged the disappointing figures, calling April a “challenging month” for businesses. However, she reaffirmed her government’s commitment to growth. “Our number one mission is delivering growth to put more money in people’s pockets through our Plan for Change,” she said on June 12.Business sentiment remains cautious, with firms reportedly scaling back hiring and investment due to uncertainty around tariffs and rising labour costs. A survey by Schroders found that 63 per cent of institutional investors and wealth managers view trade tensions and tariffs as the top macroeconomic risk.<h2>Markets react</h2>Financial markets showed a muted response to the GDP figures, with the FTSE 100 initially dipping before edging up slightly. The index had closed at a record high on June 11, buoyed by strong earnings and global investor optimism.Sterling fell by a quarter of a cent against the dollar following the release of the economic data, reflecting concerns over the UK’s growth prospects amid external and internal pressures.While the Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates steady at its next meeting, policymakers face a delicate balancing act between persistent inflation and signs of economic fragility.With growth faltering, exports falling, and businesses reeling from rising costs, the outlook for the UK economy remains highly uncertain—and much may depend on the resolution of the ongoing US tariff standoff in the months ahead.

The Office for National Statistics attributed the decline primarily to the end of a temporary tax break on property purchases and a collapse in goods exports to the United States following the imposition of new US tariffs. 

The UK economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in April 2025, its steepest monthly contraction since October 2023, as official data released on June 12 showed a sharp fall in exports and weaker consumer activity. The contraction was significantly worse than economists’ forecast of a 0.1 per cent decline and followed modest growth of 0.2 per cent in March and 0.5 per cent in February. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) attributed the decline primarily to the end of a temporary tax break on property purchases and a collapse in goods exports to the United States following the imposition of new US tariffs. Legal and real estate services, along with car manufacturers, were among the worst-hit sectors. “After increasing for each of the four preceding months, April saw the largest monthly fall on record in goods exports to the United States, with decreases seen across most types of goods,” Liz McKeown, Director of Economic Statistics at the ONS, told the press. Despite the monthly slump, GDP rose 0.7 per cent in the three months to April, but the latest figures have prompted concern about the UK’s growth trajectory amid rising costs and international trade tensions. Exports plunge amid US tariffs The most significant blow to April’s output came from a dramatic decline in trade with the US. British goods exports to America dropped by £2 billion ($2.7 billion) in a single month—the largest monthly fall since records began in 1997—driven by tariffs introduced by US President Donald Trump earlier this year. The US imposed wide-ranging duties of up to 25 per cent on key British exports, including steel, aluminium, and automobiles. The car industry, Britain’s top goods exporter to the US, saw output cut and exports tumble as manufacturers scrambled to adjust. One in eight cars built in the UK is exported to the US, underscoring the sector’s vulnerability. Manufacturing as a whole contracted by 0.6 per cent in April, while services—which account for around 80 per cent of UK economic output—shrank by 0.4 per cent. Real estate, legal services, and financial intermediaries suffered sharp declines, with the end of the property tax holiday also causing a drop in housing transactions. Meanwhile, the UK’s trade deficit in goods widened by £4.4 billion ($5.96 billion) to £60 billion ($81.39 billion) in the three months to April. The country’s surplus in services, often a stabilising factor, dipped by £500 million ($678.22 million) to £48.5 billion ($65.78 billion). Though the UK and US announced a preliminary trade deal in early May, it has yet to be fully implemented. A 10 per cent blanket tariff still applies to most British goods, and higher levies on car and steel exports remain in place, with a final agreement expected by July 9. Tax burden, job cuts add to economic strain Alongside external trade shocks, domestic policy changes also weighed on output. The rise in employer National Insurance contributions in April, coupled with higher energy, water, and council tax bills, added to business costs. Employers now pay 15 per cent in national insurance contributions, up from 13.8 per cent, on employee earnings above £175 per week ($237.38). Figures from HMRC show that payroll employment fell by 109,000 in May—the largest drop since the first Covid-19 lockdown in 2020. Since Chancellor Rachel Reeves’s autumn budget, more than 250,000 jobs have reportedly been lost. Reeves acknowledged the disappointing figures, calling April a “challenging month” for businesses. However, she reaffirmed her government’s commitment to growth. “Our number one mission is delivering growth to put more money in people’s pockets through our Plan for Change,” she said on June 12. Business sentiment remains cautious, with firms reportedly scaling back hiring and investment due to uncertainty around tariffs and rising labour costs. A survey by Schroders found that 63 per cent of institutional investors and wealth managers view trade tensions and tariffs as the top macroeconomic risk. Markets react Financial markets showed a muted response to the GDP figures, with the FTSE 100 initially dipping before edging up slightly. The index had closed at a record high on June 11, buoyed by strong earnings and global investor optimism. Sterling fell by a quarter of a cent against the dollar following the release of the economic data, reflecting concerns over the UK’s growth prospects amid external and internal pressures. While the Bank of England is expected to hold interest rates steady at its next meeting, policymakers face a delicate balancing act between persistent inflation and signs of economic fragility. With growth faltering, exports falling, and businesses reeling from rising costs, the outlook for the UK economy remains highly uncertain—and much may depend on the resolution of the ongoing US tariff standoff in the months ahead.

The Office for National Statistics attributed the decline primarily to the end of a temporary tax break on property purchases and a collapse in goods exports to the United States following the imposition of new US tariffs.&nbsp;

UK economy contracts sharply in April amid Trump tariffs and property tax shock

Samsung assembled more mobile phones in India than Apple last year—but 2025 is shaping up o be an even bigger milestone for India itself.&nbsp;Fuelled by export demand from both global giants, the country is on track to capture a record 20 per cent share of global smartphone manufacturing output, according to a report by Counterpoint Research.India’s rise comes as global smartphone production slows overall, with 2025 output expected to fall one per cent year-on-year due to weaker demand and tariff pressures. Still, India is expected to grow in double digits, thanks to the momentum from Apple and Samsung and sustained policy support aimed at boosting domestic electronics production.“India has emerged as the top growth market for smartphone manufacturing,” said Prachir Singh, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint. “After nearly a decade of refining its production ecosystem, the country is now equipped to handle large-scale, high-complexity manufacturing.”<h2>Apple, Samsung bet big on India amid China slowdown</h2>While Apple has been rapidly expanding its local manufacturing footprint in India—with its contract partners Foxconn, Pegatron, and Wistron ramping up operations—it was Samsung that outpaced the iPhone maker in unit production in 2024, according to the Business Standard&nbsp;report.Samsung, which operates the world’s largest mobile phone factory in Noida, continues to dominate mass production, especially in mid-range models. Apple, on the other hand, has seen an exponential rise in its India manufacturing base, now assembling over 14 per cent of all iPhones in the country, up from just 1 per cent in 2019.The push by both companies reflects a wider realignment in global supply chains. Tariffs and geopolitical tensions have made China less attractive as a manufacturing hub, forcing companies to diversify operations.&nbsp;India and Vietnam have emerged as the top alternatives, but India’s scale, workforce, and proactive policy environment give it a long-term edge.<h2>Tariffs, schemes, and the global shift away from China</h2>Counterpoint’s data shows that over 90 per cent of smartphone production in 2024 came from China, India, and Vietnam. But China’s dominance is under pressure. With US-China trade tensions escalating and tariffs cutting into margins, production from the world’s largest smartphone maker is projected to decline in 2025.Given the current geopolitical conditions, shifting away from China has almost become a necessity for companies that depend heavily on China. And India is positioned very well with its robust EMS (electronics components manufacturing) ecosystem and government-backed incentives to take maximum advantage of the situation.The Indian government has been aggressive in attracting electronics manufacturing through initiatives like the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme. More recently, it launched the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS), aimed at deepening India’s component supply chain—a critical step in reducing dependence on imports.<h2>India’s ecosystem matures</h2>Analysts say India is not just winning on volume but also improving in quality and sophistication of manufacturing. Local firms are now contributing to higher-value assembly and testing, and EMS players are scaling up capacity and capabilities.However, experts caution that matching China’s scale and complexity will still take time.With policy, production, and private investment aligned, 2025 could be a defining year for India’s position in the global smartphone supply chain—with Apple and Samsung leading the charge.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

Fuelled by export demand from both global giants, India is on track to capture a record 20 per cent share of global smartphone manufacturing output, according to a report by Counterpoint Research.

Samsung assembled more mobile phones in India than Apple last year—but 2025 is shaping up o be an even bigger milestone for India itself. Fuelled by export demand from both global giants, the country is on track to capture a record 20 per cent share of global smartphone manufacturing output, according to a report by Counterpoint Research. India’s rise comes as global smartphone production slows overall, with 2025 output expected to fall one per cent year-on-year due to weaker demand and tariff pressures. Still, India is expected to grow in double digits, thanks to the momentum from Apple and Samsung and sustained policy support aimed at boosting domestic electronics production. “India has emerged as the top growth market for smartphone manufacturing,” said Prachir Singh, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint. “After nearly a decade of refining its production ecosystem, the country is now equipped to handle large-scale, high-complexity manufacturing.” Apple, Samsung bet big on India amid China slowdown While Apple has been rapidly expanding its local manufacturing footprint in India—with its contract partners Foxconn, Pegatron, and Wistron ramping up operations—it was Samsung that outpaced the iPhone maker in unit production in 2024, according to the Business Standard report. Samsung, which operates the world’s largest mobile phone factory in Noida, continues to dominate mass production, especially in mid-range models. Apple, on the other hand, has seen an exponential rise in its India manufacturing base, now assembling over 14 per cent of all iPhones in the country, up from just 1 per cent in 2019. The push by both companies reflects a wider realignment in global supply chains. Tariffs and geopolitical tensions have made China less attractive as a manufacturing hub, forcing companies to diversify operations. India and Vietnam have emerged as the top alternatives, but India’s scale, workforce, and proactive policy environment give it a long-term edge. Tariffs, schemes, and the global shift away from China Counterpoint’s data shows that over 90 per cent of smartphone production in 2024 came from China, India, and Vietnam. But China’s dominance is under pressure. With US-China trade tensions escalating and tariffs cutting into margins, production from the world’s largest smartphone maker is projected to decline in 2025. Given the current geopolitical conditions, shifting away from China has almost become a necessity for companies that depend heavily on China. And India is positioned very well with its robust EMS (electronics components manufacturing) ecosystem and government-backed incentives to take maximum advantage of the situation. The Indian government has been aggressive in attracting electronics manufacturing through initiatives like the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme. More recently, it launched the Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS), aimed at deepening India’s component supply chain—a critical step in reducing dependence on imports. India’s ecosystem matures Analysts say India is not just winning on volume but also improving in quality and sophistication of manufacturing. Local firms are now contributing to higher-value assembly and testing, and EMS players are scaling up capacity and capabilities. However, experts caution that matching China’s scale and complexity will still take time. With policy, production, and private investment aligned, 2025 could be a defining year for India’s position in the global smartphone supply chain—with Apple and Samsung leading the charge. (With inputs from agencies)

Fuelled by export demand from both global giants, India is on track to capture a record 20 per cent share of global smartphone manufacturing output, according to a report by Counterpoint Research.

Samsung assembled more phones in India than Apple in 2024. But how is India the real winner?

India’s influencer marketing industry is poised for another year of robust growth, with projections suggesting a 25 per cent surge in 2025, taking the total market value to $540 million (₹4,500 crore).&nbsp;&nbsp;The growth comes on the heels of a transformative year in 2024, when the sector was valued at $432 million (₹3,600 crore), according to the newly released India Influencer Marketing Report 2025 by The Goat Agency (WPP Media) and Kantar.&nbsp;The report, released on Wednesday, captures the rapid evolution of India’s digital creator economy, citing shifting brand priorities, consumer trust, and supportive government initiatives as key accelerators. It also comes at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi has publicly acknowledged the significance of digital creators in shaping India’s cultural and economic narrative.<h2>What does the report say?</h2>India’s influencer economy has matured from a numbers game to a credibility-led ecosystem. As per the report, 70 per cent of Indian brands now cite trust and credibility as their top reasons for engaging with influencers, surpassing earlier concerns around reach and follower count.&nbsp;One of the most striking trends is the shift from quantity to quality. Among manufacturing brands, 85 per cent prioritise content quality over follower base when selecting collaborators. At the same time, 72 per cent of brands are seeking long-term partnerships with creators rather than short-lived campaign tie-ins.&nbsp;“Today’s consumers aren’t just buying products, but they are buying into stories, communities, and creators they trust,” said Ashwin Padmanabhan, chief operating officer, WPP Media, South Asia, in a statement. “With sharper content, stronger metrics, and a renewed focus on credibility, influencer marketing in India is moving towards maturity.”&nbsp;Over the past year, more than 20 mergers and acquisitions have taken place in the Indian media and marketing landscape, with agencies bolstering their influencer marketing divisions.&nbsp;&nbsp;This reported consolidated has allowed traditional firms to compete with digital-first players and offer full-service solutions to clients increasingly focused on brand safety and content control.&nbsp;The report noted that 95 per cent of brands now prefer macro-influencers, not just for their reach, but for greater reliability in content alignment, especially in regulated industries like finance, health and education.<h2>Micro-influencers rise in high-consideration sectors</h2>While macro-influencers dominate brand preferences, micro-influencers are gaining serious traction in sectors like automotive and consumer durables, where purchase decisions are complex and trust-driven. The report stated that 85 per cent of marketers in these verticals plan to increase investments in niche influencers who can offer product expertise and closer audience engagement.&nbsp;“Influencer marketing in India is no longer just about reach—it’s about relevance, resonance and results,” said Puneet Avasthi, director, specialist businesses, insights division, Kantar. “The future belongs to brands that treat influencers as strategic collaborators, not just content amplifiers.”<h2>Influencers shaping consumer journeys</h2>From a consumer perspective, the role of influencers has grown exponentially in shaping purchase decisions. The report highlights that over two-thirds of Indian users now rely on influencers for product discovery, information and purchase triggers.&nbsp;This impact is especially pronounced among Gen Z and Tier 2 &amp; 3 audiences, who often skip traditional advertising and look to platforms like YouTube, Instagram Reels, Moj, and LinkedIn for trusted recommendations.<h2>PM Modi’s endorsement and the $1 billion creator fund</h2>The sector’s momentum is not purely private-driven. The Indian government’s active role in nurturing content creators has added weight to the industry. In 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his annual Mann Ki Baat address and later at the Creator Economy Conclave, described digital creators as “the cultural ambassadors of New India.”&nbsp;PM Modi also announced the creation of a $1 billion fund aimed at boosting innovation, production quality, and global reach among Indian creators. The move was widely seen as a direct acknowledgement of the sector’s contribution to the economy and its potential for soft power projection.<h2>India vs the world: How global growth compares</h2>India’s influencer industry is expanding faster than the global average. As per Statista, the global influencer marketing market is expected to grow at a 17 per cent CAGR, reaching $28.3 billion (₹2.36 lakh crore) by the end of 2025.&nbsp;India, by comparison, is growing at 25 per cent annually, driven by strong government support, mobile-first content consumption, and the rise of vernacular creators. The creator economy in India is also seen as more agile due to its younger demographic and rapid digital adoption, as noted by Bloomberg.&nbsp;With over 8 crore digital creators as of 2024, according to NITI Aayog, India is set to play a leading role in shaping the next phase of global digital influence, where culture, commerce and community intersect in real-time.<h2>Outlook for 2025 and beyond</h2>With Indian creators becoming increasingly professional and performance-driven, and with brands doubling down on authenticity and engagement, India’s influencer economy appears set for its most structured phase of growth yet.&nbsp;As the line between commerce, community and content continues to blur, 2025 could be a landmark year for the industry—one where trust, talent and technology converge to define the future of Indian marketing.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)

India influencer market is projected to reach $540 million in 2025, growing 25% year-on-year as brands invest in creators and content relevance.

India’s influencer marketing industry is poised for another year of robust growth, with projections suggesting a 25 per cent surge in 2025, taking the total market value to $540 million (₹4,500 crore). The growth comes on the heels of a transformative year in 2024, when the sector was valued at $432 million (₹3,600 crore), according to the newly released India Influencer Marketing Report 2025 by The Goat Agency (WPP Media) and Kantar. The report, released on Wednesday, captures the rapid evolution of India’s digital creator economy, citing shifting brand priorities, consumer trust, and supportive government initiatives as key accelerators. It also comes at a time when Prime Minister Narendra Modi has publicly acknowledged the significance of digital creators in shaping India’s cultural and economic narrative. What does the report say? India’s influencer economy has matured from a numbers game to a credibility-led ecosystem. As per the report, 70 per cent of Indian brands now cite trust and credibility as their top reasons for engaging with influencers, surpassing earlier concerns around reach and follower count. One of the most striking trends is the shift from quantity to quality. Among manufacturing brands, 85 per cent prioritise content quality over follower base when selecting collaborators. At the same time, 72 per cent of brands are seeking long-term partnerships with creators rather than short-lived campaign tie-ins. “Today’s consumers aren’t just buying products, but they are buying into stories, communities, and creators they trust,” said Ashwin Padmanabhan, chief operating officer, WPP Media, South Asia, in a statement. “With sharper content, stronger metrics, and a renewed focus on credibility, influencer marketing in India is moving towards maturity.” Over the past year, more than 20 mergers and acquisitions have taken place in the Indian media and marketing landscape, with agencies bolstering their influencer marketing divisions. This reported consolidated has allowed traditional firms to compete with digital-first players and offer full-service solutions to clients increasingly focused on brand safety and content control. The report noted that 95 per cent of brands now prefer macro-influencers, not just for their reach, but for greater reliability in content alignment, especially in regulated industries like finance, health and education. Micro-influencers rise in high-consideration sectors While macro-influencers dominate brand preferences, micro-influencers are gaining serious traction in sectors like automotive and consumer durables, where purchase decisions are complex and trust-driven. The report stated that 85 per cent of marketers in these verticals plan to increase investments in niche influencers who can offer product expertise and closer audience engagement. “Influencer marketing in India is no longer just about reach—it’s about relevance, resonance and results,” said Puneet Avasthi, director, specialist businesses, insights division, Kantar. “The future belongs to brands that treat influencers as strategic collaborators, not just content amplifiers.” Influencers shaping consumer journeys From a consumer perspective, the role of influencers has grown exponentially in shaping purchase decisions. The report highlights that over two-thirds of Indian users now rely on influencers for product discovery, information and purchase triggers. This impact is especially pronounced among Gen Z and Tier 2 & 3 audiences, who often skip traditional advertising and look to platforms like YouTube, Instagram Reels, Moj, and LinkedIn for trusted recommendations. PM Modi’s endorsement and the $1 billion creator fund The sector’s momentum is not purely private-driven. The Indian government’s active role in nurturing content creators has added weight to the industry. In 2024, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, during his annual Mann Ki Baat address and later at the Creator Economy Conclave, described digital creators as “the cultural ambassadors of New India.” PM Modi also announced the creation of a $1 billion fund aimed at boosting innovation, production quality, and global reach among Indian creators. The move was widely seen as a direct acknowledgement of the sector’s contribution to the economy and its potential for soft power projection. India vs the world: How global growth compares India’s influencer industry is expanding faster than the global average. As per Statista, the global influencer marketing market is expected to grow at a 17 per cent CAGR, reaching $28.3 billion (₹2.36 lakh crore) by the end of 2025. India, by comparison, is growing at 25 per cent annually, driven by strong government support, mobile-first content consumption, and the rise of vernacular creators. The creator economy in India is also seen as more agile due to its younger demographic and rapid digital adoption, as noted by Bloomberg. With over 8 crore digital creators as of 2024, according to NITI Aayog, India is set to play a leading role in shaping the next phase of global digital influence, where culture, commerce and community intersect in real-time. Outlook for 2025 and beyond With Indian creators becoming increasingly professional and performance-driven, and with brands doubling down on authenticity and engagement, India’s influencer economy appears set for its most structured phase of growth yet. As the line between commerce, community and content continues to blur, 2025 could be a landmark year for the industry—one where trust, talent and technology converge to define the future of Indian marketing. (With inputs from the agencies)

India’s influencer marketing sector is witnessing a strategic shift, with brands focusing on trust, content quality and long-term creator partnerships.

India’s influencer marketing sector to grow 25% in 2025, here are the details