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Indian state refiners have stopped buying Russian oil in the past week, citing discounts narrowed this month, the industry sources told Reuters. This comes amid US President Donald Trump warning India against buying oil from Russia as Moscow intensifies its war with Ukraine.&nbsp;Several state refiners of India, including Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), opens new tab, Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL.NS), Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL.NS), and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical Ltd (MRPL.NS), have not sought Russian crude in the past week, four sources familiar with the refiners' purchase told Reuters.&nbsp;Notably, India is the world's third-largest oil importer and the biggest buyer of seaborne Russian crude.&nbsp;However, the refiners have not responded to the request for comment yet.&nbsp;These four refiners regularly buy Russian oil on a delivered basis, but now they have turned to spot markets for replacement supply, including Middle Eastern grades such as Abu Dhabi's Murban crude and West African oil, sources said.&nbsp;State refiners control over 60 per cent of India's overall 5.2 million barrels per day refining capacity.<h2>Trump calls India, Russia's economy 'dead'</h2>Earlier today, Trump hit out at India for purchasing oil from Russia. This came hours after the US president announced 25 per cent tariffs on Indian imports.&nbsp;Trump said that he does not care about India's trade dealings with Russia, saying that the two "can take their dead economies down together".&nbsp;"I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India; their tariffs are too high, among the highest in the world. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let's keep it that way," Trump said in a post on Truth Social.&nbsp;On July 14, Trump even threatened 100 per cent tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil unless Moscow reaches a ceasefire and peace deal with Ukraine.&nbsp;

These four refiners regularly buy Russian oil on a delivered basis, but now they have turned to spot markets for replacement supply, including Middle Eastern grades such as Abu Dhabi's Murban crude and West African oil. 

Indian state refiners have stopped buying Russian oil in the past week, citing discounts narrowed this month, the industry sources told Reuters. This comes amid US President Donald Trump warning India against buying oil from Russia as Moscow intensifies its war with Ukraine. Several state refiners of India, including Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS), opens new tab, Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL.NS), Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL.NS), and Mangalore Refinery Petrochemical Ltd (MRPL.NS), have not sought Russian crude in the past week, four sources familiar with the refiners' purchase told Reuters. Notably, India is the world's third-largest oil importer and the biggest buyer of seaborne Russian crude. However, the refiners have not responded to the request for comment yet. These four refiners regularly buy Russian oil on a delivered basis, but now they have turned to spot markets for replacement supply, including Middle Eastern grades such as Abu Dhabi's Murban crude and West African oil, sources said. State refiners control over 60 per cent of India's overall 5.2 million barrels per day refining capacity. Trump calls India, Russia's economy 'dead' Earlier today, Trump hit out at India for purchasing oil from Russia. This came hours after the US president announced 25 per cent tariffs on Indian imports. Trump said that he does not care about India's trade dealings with Russia, saying that the two "can take their dead economies down together". "I don't care what India does with Russia. They can take their dead economies down together, for all I care. We have done very little business with India; their tariffs are too high, among the highest in the world. Likewise, Russia and the USA do almost no business together. Let's keep it that way," Trump said in a post on Truth Social. On July 14, Trump even threatened 100 per cent tariffs on countries that buy Russian oil unless Moscow reaches a ceasefire and peace deal with Ukraine.

These four refiners regularly buy Russian oil on a delivered basis, but now they have turned to spot markets for replacement supply, including Middle Eastern grades such as Abu Dhabi's Murban crude and West African oil.&nbsp;

Indian state refiners halt Russian oil imports amid Trump's 25% tariff and penalty threat

India has stood firm in its trade negotiations with the US, prioritising its national interests and protecting domestic industries. This is probably what's frustrating President Donald Trump, who announced 25 per cent tariffs and additional penalties on India, citing trade gap, high tariffs as well as non-tariff barriers, and trade in arms and energy with Russia. An Indian team has been negotiating with the US counterparts for a trade deal - reportedy to be worth nearly $118 billion - to avert the tariffs, but the Trump deadline of August 1 is unlikely to be met. There are some crucial sectors of Indian economy on which Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government will not compromise. This is both to protect domestic industries, and to prevent political fallout and possible criticism of selling out to the US.&nbsp;<h2>India won't rush into a trade deal with US</h2>Addressing parliament on Thursday (July 31), Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said the government "will protect the interests of our farmers, small industries and entrepreneurs."He said India will not rush into an agreement just to meet Trump's deadlines and will only accept a deal that aligns with its national interests.<h2>Protecting the Indian farmer: Agricultural sector safeguards are important for both Indian economy and politics</h2>India is keen to safeguard its farming sector, where the US has been seeking greater market access for products like maize, soybean and corn. Another issue of contention is genetically modified (GM) crops, which India has been resisting. More about it later. Allowing such imports in large amounts will hit domestic farmers as well as food security. In trade deals with other countries also, India has consistently avoided tariff concessions on major agricultural products. The thrust has always been on protecting millions of Indian small farmers in order to ensure food security.<a href="https://www.wionews.com/videos/trump-s-tariffs-could-disrupt-118bn-in-india-us-trade-india-braces-for-25-tariff-hit-1753958648484/embed">https://www.wionews.com/videos/trump-s-tariffs-could-disrupt-118bn-in-india-us-trade-india-braces-for-25-tariff-hit-1753958648484/embed</a>&nbsp;<h2>India has a red line on dairy sector</h2>Diary products are another 'non-negotiable red line' for India. India has refused to allow imports of US dairy products, including so-called 'non-vegetarian milk' (possibly from animals fed with certain kinds of feeds or hormones). India wants to protect its dairy farmers and make the domestic market stable. Not just the US, but India has not given duty concessions for dairy products in any of its free trade agreements.<h2>Genetically Modified (GM) Crops: A controversial territory</h2>GM crops have been a controversial topic in India for decades. India has explicitly rejected American demands to allow imports of GM crops, such as soybean and corn. It could hit Indian agriculture, and affect people's health.<h2>Non-Tariff Barriers and quality control orders</h2>Quality Control Orders are part of the ‘self-reliant India’ initiative, aimed at curbing low-quality imports and promoting domestic manufacturing. The US has raised concerns about QCOs. The other sticking point is NTFs, which block market access to several US products. India, for which both NTBs and QCOs as crucial for protecting its domestic industries, is unlikely to relax them.<h2>Energy Imports are about India's strategic autonomy</h2>In meeting its energy demands, India has been importing from countries the West sees as enemies, particularly Russia and Iran. But India is very clear that national interest will guide its energy purchases. These imports, such as petroleum from Russia, are cheaper for India. India has tied its energy trade with its strategic autonomy. This is not an area India can compromise.&nbsp;These positions align with India’s broader trade policy, which prioritises protecting domestic industries, ensuring food security, and maintaining a favourable trade balance.India, meanwhile, remains open to offering concessions in other areas. This includes cuts in tariffs on automobiles and American whiskey, or duty concessions for textiles, leather, footwear, and auto parts.

The Trump deadline of August 1 for a trade deal with India is unlikely to be met. There are some crucial sectors of Indian economy on which Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government will not compromise. Here is why

India has stood firm in its trade negotiations with the US, prioritising its national interests and protecting domestic industries. This is probably what's frustrating President Donald Trump, who announced 25 per cent tariffs and additional penalties on India, citing trade gap, high tariffs as well as non-tariff barriers, and trade in arms and energy with Russia. An Indian team has been negotiating with the US counterparts for a trade deal - reportedy to be worth nearly $118 billion - to avert the tariffs, but the Trump deadline of August 1 is unlikely to be met. There are some crucial sectors of Indian economy on which Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government will not compromise. This is both to protect domestic industries, and to prevent political fallout and possible criticism of selling out to the US. India won't rush into a trade deal with US Addressing parliament on Thursday (July 31), Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said the government "will protect the interests of our farmers, small industries and entrepreneurs." He said India will not rush into an agreement just to meet Trump's deadlines and will only accept a deal that aligns with its national interests. Protecting the Indian farmer: Agricultural sector safeguards are important for both Indian economy and politics India is keen to safeguard its farming sector, where the US has been seeking greater market access for products like maize, soybean and corn. Another issue of contention is genetically modified (GM) crops, which India has been resisting. More about it later. Allowing such imports in large amounts will hit domestic farmers as well as food security. In trade deals with other countries also, India has consistently avoided tariff concessions on major agricultural products. The thrust has always been on protecting millions of Indian small farmers in order to ensure food security. https://www.wionews.com/videos/trump-s-tariffs-could-disrupt-118bn-in-india-us-trade-india-braces-for-25-tariff-hit-1753958648484/embed India has a red line on dairy sector Diary products are another 'non-negotiable red line' for India. India has refused to allow imports of US dairy products, including so-called 'non-vegetarian milk' (possibly from animals fed with certain kinds of feeds or hormones). India wants to protect its dairy farmers and make the domestic market stable. Not just the US, but India has not given duty concessions for dairy products in any of its free trade agreements. Genetically Modified (GM) Crops: A controversial territory GM crops have been a controversial topic in India for decades. India has explicitly rejected American demands to allow imports of GM crops, such as soybean and corn. It could hit Indian agriculture, and affect people's health. Non-Tariff Barriers and quality control orders Quality Control Orders are part of the ‘self-reliant India’ initiative, aimed at curbing low-quality imports and promoting domestic manufacturing. The US has raised concerns about QCOs. The other sticking point is NTFs, which block market access to several US products. India, for which both NTBs and QCOs as crucial for protecting its domestic industries, is unlikely to relax them. Energy Imports are about India's strategic autonomy In meeting its energy demands, India has been importing from countries the West sees as enemies, particularly Russia and Iran. But India is very clear that national interest will guide its energy purchases. These imports, such as petroleum from Russia, are cheaper for India. India has tied its energy trade with its strategic autonomy. This is not an area India can compromise. These positions align with India’s broader trade policy, which prioritises protecting domestic industries, ensuring food security, and maintaining a favourable trade balance. India, meanwhile, remains open to offering concessions in other areas. This includes cuts in tariffs on automobiles and American whiskey, or duty concessions for textiles, leather, footwear, and auto parts.

The Trump deadline of August 1 for a trade deal with India is unlikely to be met. There are some crucial sectors of Indian economy on which Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government will not compromise. Here is why

Why Modi will not compromise on trade deal with Trump. These sectors are crucial for Indian economy (and politics)

European luxury car manufacturers, including Porsche and Aston Martin, are increasing US prices to offset the rising costs caused by tariffs imposed by the US government. These hikes come in the wake of a trade deal between the US and Europe, which lowered tariff rates to 15 per cent from the previous 27.5 per cent, but still remains far higher than the previous 2.5 per cent rate. This adjustment has prompted automakers to pass on the additional costs to consumers, with Porsche increasing prices by between 2.3 per cent and 3.6 per cent in July, following its full-year profit target cut and a forecasted $462 million hit from tariffs in the first half of the year.Porsche CEO Oliver Blume acknowledged the global challenges the company faces, stating, “This is not a storm that will pass,” after reporting a significant dip in its revenue and profit. The company has also ruled out establishing a US production presence to bypass tariffs, citing the ongoing global challenges impacting the automotive sector.<h2>Tariff burden weighs on Mercedes and Porsche</h2>Both Porsche and Mercedes have been hit hard by the tariff costs, leading to a significant impact on their financial performance. Mercedes-Benz, in particular, reported a 10 per cent decline in revenue to €33.15 billion ($38.82 billion) in Q2 2025, with net profit dropping nearly 70 per cent. The company also lowered its 2025 revenue outlook, citing tariff impacts, competition, and shifting consumer demand, especially in China. CFO Harald Wilhelm indicated that tariffs had already cost Mercedes hundreds of millions of euros, with the financial burden expected to intensify in the second half of the year.For Porsche, the pain is similarly acute, as the company saw a 6.7 per cent drop in first-half revenue to €18.2 billion ($21.04 billion). The company reported extraordinary expenses, including €400 million ($462.4 million) from tariff costs, resulting in a projected decrease in its return on sales to 5-7 per cent for the year, down from 14.1 per cent in 2024. Both automakers are facing compounded challenges from shifting consumer preferences, particularly in China, and slow adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the US.<h2>Shifting market dynamics and consumer behaviour</h2>While luxury carmakers adjust their pricing strategies to offset the tariff burden, they are also grappling with changing market dynamics. In China, where foreign automakers once dominated, local brands such as BYD and Xiaomi have been gaining traction with consumers, thanks to their tailored features and competitive pricing. This shift has impacted European automakers’ sales in the region.In the US, the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has been slower than expected, impacting both Porsche and Mercedes, who have invested heavily in EV models. Mercedes, for instance, is no longer accepting orders for its 2025 EVs in the US, while Porsche is dealing with high inventories of its Taycan EV, which has led to dealer discounts.Despite these challenges, both Porsche and Aston Martin have continued to raise prices in the US market, signalling that larger carmakers could follow suit in the second half of the year as they seek to mitigate the ongoing financial pressure. The higher tariff rates, while lower than initially feared, continue to have a significant impact on the luxury car market, forcing manufacturers to adjust their strategies to safeguard profitability.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

Porsche and Aston Martin have continued to raise prices in the US market, signalling that larger carmakers could follow suit in the second half of the year as they seek to mitigate the ongoing financial pressure. 

European luxury car manufacturers, including Porsche and Aston Martin, are increasing US prices to offset the rising costs caused by tariffs imposed by the US government. These hikes come in the wake of a trade deal between the US and Europe, which lowered tariff rates to 15 per cent from the previous 27.5 per cent, but still remains far higher than the previous 2.5 per cent rate. This adjustment has prompted automakers to pass on the additional costs to consumers, with Porsche increasing prices by between 2.3 per cent and 3.6 per cent in July, following its full-year profit target cut and a forecasted $462 million hit from tariffs in the first half of the year. Porsche CEO Oliver Blume acknowledged the global challenges the company faces, stating, “This is not a storm that will pass,” after reporting a significant dip in its revenue and profit. The company has also ruled out establishing a US production presence to bypass tariffs, citing the ongoing global challenges impacting the automotive sector. Tariff burden weighs on Mercedes and Porsche Both Porsche and Mercedes have been hit hard by the tariff costs, leading to a significant impact on their financial performance. Mercedes-Benz, in particular, reported a 10 per cent decline in revenue to €33.15 billion ($38.82 billion) in Q2 2025, with net profit dropping nearly 70 per cent. The company also lowered its 2025 revenue outlook, citing tariff impacts, competition, and shifting consumer demand, especially in China. CFO Harald Wilhelm indicated that tariffs had already cost Mercedes hundreds of millions of euros, with the financial burden expected to intensify in the second half of the year. For Porsche, the pain is similarly acute, as the company saw a 6.7 per cent drop in first-half revenue to €18.2 billion ($21.04 billion). The company reported extraordinary expenses, including €400 million ($462.4 million) from tariff costs, resulting in a projected decrease in its return on sales to 5-7 per cent for the year, down from 14.1 per cent in 2024. Both automakers are facing compounded challenges from shifting consumer preferences, particularly in China, and slow adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) in the US. Shifting market dynamics and consumer behaviour While luxury carmakers adjust their pricing strategies to offset the tariff burden, they are also grappling with changing market dynamics. In China, where foreign automakers once dominated, local brands such as BYD and Xiaomi have been gaining traction with consumers, thanks to their tailored features and competitive pricing. This shift has impacted European automakers’ sales in the region. In the US, the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) has been slower than expected, impacting both Porsche and Mercedes, who have invested heavily in EV models. Mercedes, for instance, is no longer accepting orders for its 2025 EVs in the US, while Porsche is dealing with high inventories of its Taycan EV, which has led to dealer discounts. Despite these challenges, both Porsche and Aston Martin have continued to raise prices in the US market, signalling that larger carmakers could follow suit in the second half of the year as they seek to mitigate the ongoing financial pressure. The higher tariff rates, while lower than initially feared, continue to have a significant impact on the luxury car market, forcing manufacturers to adjust their strategies to safeguard profitability. (With inputs from agencies)

Porsche and Aston Martin have continued to raise prices in the US market, signalling that larger carmakers could follow suit in the second half of the year as they seek to mitigate the ongoing financial pressure.&nbsp;

European luxury carmakers raise prices amid tariff strain

Global gold demand surged in the second quarter of 2025, driven by an unprecedented 78 per cent increase in investment demand, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Total gold demand, including over-the-counter (OTC) trading, rose by 3 per cent year-on-year to 1,248.8 tonnes. In value terms, the demand spiked by 45 per cent, reaching a record $132 billion. The surge in demand was largely fuelled by rising gold prices, which hit a historic high of $3,500 per ounce in April, amid ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical instability.Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) played a key role in driving this growth, recording their largest semi-annual inflow since 2020. Institutional investors, particularly high-net-worth individuals (HNIs), were drawn to gold’s safe-haven status as a hedge against global uncertainty. Additionally, demand for gold bars rose by 21 per cent, highlighting the growing trend of physical gold investment.<h2>Jewellery demand drops as high prices impact consumer behaviour</h2>While overall gold demand grew, global jewellery consumption saw a significant decline. Total gold jewellery demand fell by 14 per cent to 341 tonnes in Q2, the lowest level since the pandemic-induced slump in 2020. The sharp increase in gold prices, which rose 26 per cent year-to-date, deterred many buyers, particularly in key markets like China and India. These two countries, which traditionally account for a substantial portion of global jewellery demand, saw a notable drop in consumption, with their combined market share falling below 50 per cent for only the third time in five years.In India, where gold holds strong cultural and economic importance, high local prices pushed down jewellery purchases. Gold prices in India hit a record ₹101,078 per 10 grams in June, marking a 28 per cent rise in 2025. As a result, India’s demand for gold in Q2 fell by 10 per cent, with jewellery demand dropping by 17 per cent. However, investment demand for gold in India saw a modest rise of 7 per cent, with gold ETFs becoming increasingly popular as the country becomes more digitised.<h2>Central bank demand shows signs of stabilisation&nbsp;</h2>Central banks, a significant source of global gold demand, reduced their purchases by 21 per cent to 166.5 tonnes in Q2. Despite this decline, the longer-term trend of central banks diversifying their reserves from US assets to gold remains intact. The WGC revised its forecast for central bank purchases downward but continues to expect a healthy demand outlook for the remainder of 2025.With geopolitical risks, inflationary pressures, and rising gold prices, the WGC anticipates that demand for gold ETFs will continue to grow in the second half of the year, despite a slight softening of retail investment.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

 Institutional investors, particularly high-net-worth individuals, were drawn to gold’s safe-haven status as a hedge against global uncertainty. Additionally, demand for gold bars rose by 21 per cent, highlighting the growing trend of physical gold investment.

Global gold demand surged in the second quarter of 2025, driven by an unprecedented 78 per cent increase in investment demand, according to the World Gold Council (WGC). Total gold demand, including over-the-counter (OTC) trading, rose by 3 per cent year-on-year to 1,248.8 tonnes. In value terms, the demand spiked by 45 per cent, reaching a record $132 billion. The surge in demand was largely fuelled by rising gold prices, which hit a historic high of $3,500 per ounce in April, amid ongoing global trade tensions and geopolitical instability. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) played a key role in driving this growth, recording their largest semi-annual inflow since 2020. Institutional investors, particularly high-net-worth individuals (HNIs), were drawn to gold’s safe-haven status as a hedge against global uncertainty. Additionally, demand for gold bars rose by 21 per cent, highlighting the growing trend of physical gold investment. Jewellery demand drops as high prices impact consumer behaviour While overall gold demand grew, global jewellery consumption saw a significant decline. Total gold jewellery demand fell by 14 per cent to 341 tonnes in Q2, the lowest level since the pandemic-induced slump in 2020. The sharp increase in gold prices, which rose 26 per cent year-to-date, deterred many buyers, particularly in key markets like China and India. These two countries, which traditionally account for a substantial portion of global jewellery demand, saw a notable drop in consumption, with their combined market share falling below 50 per cent for only the third time in five years. In India, where gold holds strong cultural and economic importance, high local prices pushed down jewellery purchases. Gold prices in India hit a record ₹101,078 per 10 grams in June, marking a 28 per cent rise in 2025. As a result, India’s demand for gold in Q2 fell by 10 per cent, with jewellery demand dropping by 17 per cent. However, investment demand for gold in India saw a modest rise of 7 per cent, with gold ETFs becoming increasingly popular as the country becomes more digitised. Central bank demand shows signs of stabilisation Central banks, a significant source of global gold demand, reduced their purchases by 21 per cent to 166.5 tonnes in Q2. Despite this decline, the longer-term trend of central banks diversifying their reserves from US assets to gold remains intact. The WGC revised its forecast for central bank purchases downward but continues to expect a healthy demand outlook for the remainder of 2025. With geopolitical risks, inflationary pressures, and rising gold prices, the WGC anticipates that demand for gold ETFs will continue to grow in the second half of the year, despite a slight softening of retail investment. (With inputs from agencies)

&nbsp;Institutional investors, particularly high-net-worth individuals, were drawn to gold’s safe-haven status as a hedge against global uncertainty. Additionally, demand for gold bars rose by 21 per cent, highlighting the growing trend of physical gold investment.

Gold demand surges in Q2, driven by strong investment flows: WGC

Every 1st of the month, several changes are made and implemented with major rules. This time, along with the US tariff, several financial rules are set to come into force that will impact the pocket of the common man.

From UPI to LPG: 8 major rules to change from August 1—Know which will hit your pocket the most?

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 per cent, maintaining its cautious stance as it assesses economic and price developments. However, the central bank significantly raised its inflation forecasts, signalling a potential interest rate hike in the near future. This decision follows a period of heightened uncertainty surrounding the global economic landscape, particularly due to US President Donald Trump's trade policies. In a quarterly report released on July 31, the BOJ revised its inflation forecast for fiscal 2025-26 to 2.7 per cent, up from 2.2 per cent previously projected.&nbsp;The central bank also raised its inflation expectations for the following two years, citing the persistent increase in food prices, particularly rice, which has driven inflationary pressures in Japan. Despite these upward revisions, the Bank of Japan refrained from making any definitive comments on when it might resume rate hikes, stressing that it is still evaluating the impact of US trade tariffs.<h2>Trade deal with the US relieves economic pressure</h2>A positive development for the BOJ came earlier this month when Japan struck a trade deal with the United States. The agreement, which reduces tariffs on Japanese imports like automobiles, has helped alleviate some of the trade-related uncertainty that had clouded the Japanese economy in recent months. The BOJ acknowledged that these developments have improved the outlook but noted that risks stemming from US trade policies remain high. “The risks surrounding US trade policy are no longer ‘extremely high,’ but still significant,” the BOJ report stated, reflecting a less pessimistic view compared to earlier this year.&nbsp;Japan’s export-driven economy is heavily dependent on smooth trade relations with the US, making the trade deal a welcome development amid other global challenges. Despite the trade agreement, the BOJ warned that household consumption in Japan would likely stagnate in the near term due to rising living costs. While the economy has shown resilience, with factory output rising 1.7 per cent in June, consumer spending remains sluggish, squeezing household budgets. The central bank indicated that it expects consumption to return to a moderate upward trend as the impact of price hikes eases.<h2>Rate hike likely by year-end</h2>Markets have responded cautiously to the BOJ’s announcement, with the yen strengthening slightly against the dollar. Investors are now speculating that the BOJ could increase rates before the year ends, especially given the revised inflation outlook and the positive developments in trade relations. Some analysts predict a rate hike could come as soon as October, while others anticipate a move in December, once the BOJ has fully assessed the effects of the US tariffs on Japan’s corporate profits and investment.BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has previously signalled a more gradual approach to rate hikes, but as inflationary pressures persist and the economic outlook stabilises, market expectations for a tighter monetary policy are growing. While Japan’s inflation has remained slightly below the 2 per cent target, the central bank's upgraded forecasts and more balanced risk assessment suggest that the BOJ is inching closer to resuming rate hikes in response to the evolving economic landscape.The BOJ’s cautious optimism contrasts with the gloomier outlook presented in May, when economic turmoil and trade uncertainties dominated discussions. With inflationary pressures on the rise and economic growth showing signs of stabilisation, Japan’s central bank faces increasing pressure to navigate the fine balance between supporting growth and addressing rising prices.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

Bank of Japan raised its inflation expectations for the next two years, citing the persistent increase in food prices, particularly rice, which has driven inflationary pressures. Despite the revisions, the BOJ refrained from making any definitive comments on when it might resume rate hikes.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.5 per cent, maintaining its cautious stance as it assesses economic and price developments. However, the central bank significantly raised its inflation forecasts, signalling a potential interest rate hike in the near future. This decision follows a period of heightened uncertainty surrounding the global economic landscape, particularly due to US President Donald Trump's trade policies. In a quarterly report released on July 31, the BOJ revised its inflation forecast for fiscal 2025-26 to 2.7 per cent, up from 2.2 per cent previously projected. The central bank also raised its inflation expectations for the following two years, citing the persistent increase in food prices, particularly rice, which has driven inflationary pressures in Japan. Despite these upward revisions, the Bank of Japan refrained from making any definitive comments on when it might resume rate hikes, stressing that it is still evaluating the impact of US trade tariffs. Trade deal with the US relieves economic pressure A positive development for the BOJ came earlier this month when Japan struck a trade deal with the United States. The agreement, which reduces tariffs on Japanese imports like automobiles, has helped alleviate some of the trade-related uncertainty that had clouded the Japanese economy in recent months. The BOJ acknowledged that these developments have improved the outlook but noted that risks stemming from US trade policies remain high. “The risks surrounding US trade policy are no longer ‘extremely high,’ but still significant,” the BOJ report stated, reflecting a less pessimistic view compared to earlier this year. Japan’s export-driven economy is heavily dependent on smooth trade relations with the US, making the trade deal a welcome development amid other global challenges. Despite the trade agreement, the BOJ warned that household consumption in Japan would likely stagnate in the near term due to rising living costs. While the economy has shown resilience, with factory output rising 1.7 per cent in June, consumer spending remains sluggish, squeezing household budgets. The central bank indicated that it expects consumption to return to a moderate upward trend as the impact of price hikes eases. Rate hike likely by year-end Markets have responded cautiously to the BOJ’s announcement, with the yen strengthening slightly against the dollar. Investors are now speculating that the BOJ could increase rates before the year ends, especially given the revised inflation outlook and the positive developments in trade relations. Some analysts predict a rate hike could come as soon as October, while others anticipate a move in December, once the BOJ has fully assessed the effects of the US tariffs on Japan’s corporate profits and investment. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda has previously signalled a more gradual approach to rate hikes, but as inflationary pressures persist and the economic outlook stabilises, market expectations for a tighter monetary policy are growing. While Japan’s inflation has remained slightly below the 2 per cent target, the central bank's upgraded forecasts and more balanced risk assessment suggest that the BOJ is inching closer to resuming rate hikes in response to the evolving economic landscape. The BOJ’s cautious optimism contrasts with the gloomier outlook presented in May, when economic turmoil and trade uncertainties dominated discussions. With inflationary pressures on the rise and economic growth showing signs of stabilisation, Japan’s central bank faces increasing pressure to navigate the fine balance between supporting growth and addressing rising prices. (With inputs from agencies)

Bank of Japan raised its inflation expectations for the next two years, citing the persistent increase in food prices, particularly rice, which has driven inflationary pressures. Despite the revisions, the BOJ refrained from making any definitive comments on when it might resume rate hikes.

Bank of Japan holds rates steady, raises inflation forecasts, signals possible rate hike

In a surprise move, on July 30, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States had reached a trade deal with Pakistan, agreeing to jointly develop the South Asian nation’s underexplored oil reserves. The deal, touted by Trump as a major step forward in bilateral relations, aims to unlock Pakistan’s “massive” oil potential, which remains largely untapped due to limited technical expertise and infrastructure challenges.&nbsp;In a post on Truth Social, Trump expressed optimism about the partnership: “We have just concluded a deal with the country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive oil reserves.” He added that officials were in the process of selecting the oil company that would lead the effort, hinting at a future where Pakistan might even sell oil to India. “Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling oil to India some day!” he said, a remark likely aimed at putting pressure on neighbouring India over its continued purchase of Russian energy.<h2>Oil reserves and unclear prospects</h2>Details of the agreement remain sparse, particularly regarding the size of Pakistan’s oil reserves. While Trump referred to them as “massive,” Pakistan's proven reserves are much smaller than India’s. As of 2016, Pakistan’s reserves stood at around 353 million barrels, just under 10 per cent of India’s reserves, which were estimated at 4.8 billion barrels. However, Pakistan has made recent offshore discoveries that could potentially increase its oil reserves, although the full extent remains uncertain.What is clear is that Pakistan’s energy sector faces considerable hurdles. The country has historically relied on oil imports from West Asia, and although it has identified offshore oil deposits, limited technical expertise and financial resources have hindered the development of these reserves. Pakistan has made several attempts to attract foreign investment, but these efforts have faced challenges, including geopolitical instability and security concerns, especially in its offshore areas.Even if the US helps Pakistan unlock these reserves, the oil market dynamics suggest limited impact on India’s energy needs. India remains heavily dependent on oil imports, but it is far better positioned than Pakistan to meet its own energy demands, producing significantly more crude oil per day and holding much larger proven reserves. India’s proven reserves and daily production far exceed Pakistan's, with India producing over 600,000 barrels per day in February 2025 compared to Pakistan’s 68,000.<h2>Trump's criticism of India and trade tensions</h2>The announcement of the oil deal with Pakistan coincided with President Trump’s sharp criticism of India. In a separate Truth Social post, Trump declared a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff on all Indian goods and a penalty for India’s ongoing purchases of Russian military equipment and energy. Trump accused India of being one of Russia’s largest energy customers, alongside China, and suggested that the country’s continued reliance on Russian oil amid sanctions was unacceptable.Trump’s jibe at India, which has long been a strategic partner of the US in the Indo-Pacific region, reflects growing trade tensions. His administration has been vocal about India’s tariffs on American goods and its reluctance to open its agricultural and dairy markets to American imports. Trump’s new trade measures, set to take effect from August 1, could significantly impact India’s exports to the US, particularly as the two nations had been negotiating a broader trade deal.While the US helping Pakistan develop its oil resources could have some economic benefits for the country, analysts suggest that the main motivation for the deal is geopolitical. The US is likely seeking to strengthen Pakistan’s energy sector while applying pressure on India to diversify its energy imports away from Russia and consider purchasing more oil from the United States. This could reduce India’s dependence on Russian energy and, in turn, improve the prospects for American oil exports.<h2>A new era of US-Pakistan ties?</h2>The oil deal is seen as a sign of thawing relations between the US and Pakistan, which have long been marred by tension over issues like counterterrorism and military cooperation. Just weeks ago, President Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for rare talks at the White House, signalling a shift in diplomatic ties. The two countries have also been discussing expanding cooperation in critical minerals, with Pakistan offering to boost American imports of cotton and soybeans.The deal to develop Pakistan’s oil reserves may not drastically change the regional energy landscape, but it could mark the beginning of a new chapter in US-Pakistan relations, with economic and geopolitical implications for the wider South Asian region.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

The details of the US-Pakistan oil agreement remain sparse, particularly regarding the size of Pakistan’s oil reserves. While Trump referred to them as 'massive', Pakistan's proven reserves are much smaller than India’s.

In a surprise move, on July 30, US President Donald Trump announced that the United States had reached a trade deal with Pakistan, agreeing to jointly develop the South Asian nation’s underexplored oil reserves. The deal, touted by Trump as a major step forward in bilateral relations, aims to unlock Pakistan’s “massive” oil potential, which remains largely untapped due to limited technical expertise and infrastructure challenges. In a post on Truth Social, Trump expressed optimism about the partnership: “We have just concluded a deal with the country of Pakistan, whereby Pakistan and the United States will work together on developing their massive oil reserves.” He added that officials were in the process of selecting the oil company that would lead the effort, hinting at a future where Pakistan might even sell oil to India. “Who knows, maybe they’ll be selling oil to India some day!” he said, a remark likely aimed at putting pressure on neighbouring India over its continued purchase of Russian energy. Oil reserves and unclear prospects Details of the agreement remain sparse, particularly regarding the size of Pakistan’s oil reserves. While Trump referred to them as “massive,” Pakistan's proven reserves are much smaller than India’s. As of 2016, Pakistan’s reserves stood at around 353 million barrels, just under 10 per cent of India’s reserves, which were estimated at 4.8 billion barrels. However, Pakistan has made recent offshore discoveries that could potentially increase its oil reserves, although the full extent remains uncertain. What is clear is that Pakistan’s energy sector faces considerable hurdles. The country has historically relied on oil imports from West Asia, and although it has identified offshore oil deposits, limited technical expertise and financial resources have hindered the development of these reserves. Pakistan has made several attempts to attract foreign investment, but these efforts have faced challenges, including geopolitical instability and security concerns, especially in its offshore areas. Even if the US helps Pakistan unlock these reserves, the oil market dynamics suggest limited impact on India’s energy needs. India remains heavily dependent on oil imports, but it is far better positioned than Pakistan to meet its own energy demands, producing significantly more crude oil per day and holding much larger proven reserves. India’s proven reserves and daily production far exceed Pakistan's, with India producing over 600,000 barrels per day in February 2025 compared to Pakistan’s 68,000. Trump's criticism of India and trade tensions The announcement of the oil deal with Pakistan coincided with President Trump’s sharp criticism of India. In a separate Truth Social post, Trump declared a 25 per cent reciprocal tariff on all Indian goods and a penalty for India’s ongoing purchases of Russian military equipment and energy. Trump accused India of being one of Russia’s largest energy customers, alongside China, and suggested that the country’s continued reliance on Russian oil amid sanctions was unacceptable. Trump’s jibe at India, which has long been a strategic partner of the US in the Indo-Pacific region, reflects growing trade tensions. His administration has been vocal about India’s tariffs on American goods and its reluctance to open its agricultural and dairy markets to American imports. Trump’s new trade measures, set to take effect from August 1, could significantly impact India’s exports to the US, particularly as the two nations had been negotiating a broader trade deal. While the US helping Pakistan develop its oil resources could have some economic benefits for the country, analysts suggest that the main motivation for the deal is geopolitical. The US is likely seeking to strengthen Pakistan’s energy sector while applying pressure on India to diversify its energy imports away from Russia and consider purchasing more oil from the United States. This could reduce India’s dependence on Russian energy and, in turn, improve the prospects for American oil exports. A new era of US-Pakistan ties? The oil deal is seen as a sign of thawing relations between the US and Pakistan, which have long been marred by tension over issues like counterterrorism and military cooperation. Just weeks ago, President Trump hosted Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, for rare talks at the White House, signalling a shift in diplomatic ties. The two countries have also been discussing expanding cooperation in critical minerals, with Pakistan offering to boost American imports of cotton and soybeans. The deal to develop Pakistan’s oil reserves may not drastically change the regional energy landscape, but it could mark the beginning of a new chapter in US-Pakistan relations, with economic and geopolitical implications for the wider South Asian region. (With inputs from agencies)

The details of the US-Pakistan oil agreement remain sparse, particularly regarding the size of Pakistan’s oil reserves. While Trump referred to them as 'massive', Pakistan's proven reserves are much smaller than India’s.

Oil deal with Pakistan signals shift in US strategy amid tensions with India

Microsoft’s stock surged after a strong earnings report revealed a record $30 billion capital spending forecast for the fiscal first quarter. The software giant’s market cap surpassed $4 trillion in after-hours trading on July 30, marking a key milestone as it joins Nvidia in the exclusive $4 trillion club. Shares of Microsoft jumped 8 per cent following its earnings announcement, lifting the company’s market cap to about $4.1 trillion. This move puts Microsoft in the rarefied ranks alongside Nvidia, which crossed the $4 trillion threshold earlier this month. With the stock up 22 per cent year-to-date, Microsoft is on track to potentially outpace its competitors in capital spending over the next year.<h2>Azure cloud sales and AI investments fuel growth</h2>A major driver behind the company’s surge was its cloud computing business, Azure. Microsoft revealed for the first time that Azure sales had surpassed $75 billion on an annual basis, beating Wall Street’s expectations of $74.62 billion. Azure’s revenue growth was a standout, with a 39 per cent year-over-year increase in the June quarter, outpacing the analyst estimate of 34.75 per cent.For the upcoming fiscal quarter, Microsoft projects Azure revenue growth of 37 per cent, again exceeding analyst expectations of 33.5 per cent. This growth is driven in large part by the company’s heavy investment in artificial intelligence (AI), which has allowed it to develop new products such as the Copilot AI tools. Microsoft reported that Copilot AI tools had surpassed 100 million monthly active users, further showcasing the growing adoption of its AI-powered services.The company’s capital expenditure forecast of $30 billion, which represents the largest for any single quarter, is a clear signal that Microsoft is doubling down on its investments in AI and data centres to meet soaring demand.<h2>Market outlook and competitive edge in AI</h2>Microsoft’s investment strategy and its successful pivot to AI-powered cloud services have positioned the company as a leader in the ongoing AI boom. Although Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains the market leader in cloud services, Microsoft's aggressive spending in AI and data infrastructure has paid off handsomely.The company’s ties to OpenAI, which have allowed it to integrate cutting-edge AI models into products like Microsoft 365, have also helped boost its competitive edge. But investor confidence remains strong, despite concerns over the ongoing renegotiation of Microsoft’s deal with OpenAI, which could affect its stake and access to future technologies.For now, Microsoft appears to be managing this risk effectively by developing in-house AI solutions and expanding its AI model lineup with new partnerships, such as with xAI, Meta, and Mistral.As of July 30, Microsoft’s stock closed at $513.24, continuing its strong performance for 2025. With capital spending poised to reach new heights and Azure leading the way in cloud services, Microsoft’s growth shows no signs of slowing down. As the company focuses on expanding its AI and cloud infrastructure, it remains a key player in the tech world, likely to continue outperforming its competitors in the coming quarters.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

Shares of Microsoft jumped 8 per cent following its earnings announcement, lifting the company’s market cap to about $4.1 trillion. This move puts Microsoft in the rarefied ranks alongside Nvidia, which crossed the $4 trillion threshold earlier this month.

Microsoft’s stock surged after a strong earnings report revealed a record $30 billion capital spending forecast for the fiscal first quarter. The software giant’s market cap surpassed $4 trillion in after-hours trading on July 30, marking a key milestone as it joins Nvidia in the exclusive $4 trillion club. Shares of Microsoft jumped 8 per cent following its earnings announcement, lifting the company’s market cap to about $4.1 trillion. This move puts Microsoft in the rarefied ranks alongside Nvidia, which crossed the $4 trillion threshold earlier this month. With the stock up 22 per cent year-to-date, Microsoft is on track to potentially outpace its competitors in capital spending over the next year. Azure cloud sales and AI investments fuel growth A major driver behind the company’s surge was its cloud computing business, Azure. Microsoft revealed for the first time that Azure sales had surpassed $75 billion on an annual basis, beating Wall Street’s expectations of $74.62 billion. Azure’s revenue growth was a standout, with a 39 per cent year-over-year increase in the June quarter, outpacing the analyst estimate of 34.75 per cent. For the upcoming fiscal quarter, Microsoft projects Azure revenue growth of 37 per cent, again exceeding analyst expectations of 33.5 per cent. This growth is driven in large part by the company’s heavy investment in artificial intelligence (AI), which has allowed it to develop new products such as the Copilot AI tools. Microsoft reported that Copilot AI tools had surpassed 100 million monthly active users, further showcasing the growing adoption of its AI-powered services. The company’s capital expenditure forecast of $30 billion, which represents the largest for any single quarter, is a clear signal that Microsoft is doubling down on its investments in AI and data centres to meet soaring demand. Market outlook and competitive edge in AI Microsoft’s investment strategy and its successful pivot to AI-powered cloud services have positioned the company as a leader in the ongoing AI boom. Although Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains the market leader in cloud services, Microsoft's aggressive spending in AI and data infrastructure has paid off handsomely. The company’s ties to OpenAI, which have allowed it to integrate cutting-edge AI models into products like Microsoft 365, have also helped boost its competitive edge. But investor confidence remains strong, despite concerns over the ongoing renegotiation of Microsoft’s deal with OpenAI, which could affect its stake and access to future technologies. For now, Microsoft appears to be managing this risk effectively by developing in-house AI solutions and expanding its AI model lineup with new partnerships, such as with xAI, Meta, and Mistral. As of July 30, Microsoft’s stock closed at $513.24, continuing its strong performance for 2025. With capital spending poised to reach new heights and Azure leading the way in cloud services, Microsoft’s growth shows no signs of slowing down. As the company focuses on expanding its AI and cloud infrastructure, it remains a key player in the tech world, likely to continue outperforming its competitors in the coming quarters. (With inputs from agencies)

Shares of Microsoft jumped 8 per cent following its earnings announcement, lifting the company’s market cap to about $4.1 trillion. This move puts Microsoft in the rarefied ranks alongside Nvidia, which crossed the $4 trillion threshold earlier this month.

Microsoft’s record capital spending and Azure growth push stock to $4 trillion market cap

China’s manufacturing activity continued its downward trend in July, showing signs of economic deceleration despite the easing of US tariffs. According to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.3, down from 49.7 in June. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing activity, and July's figure marked the lowest level since April. This data came in below market expectations, which had forecasted the PMI would hold steady at 49.7. The contraction in manufacturing comes amid persistent domestic and external challenges. Notably, a series of adverse weather events, including heavy rains, high temperatures, and flooding in several regions, have strained production. Additionally, the seasonal off-peak period for manufacturing has contributed to lower output.&nbsp;Experts also highlighted that while US-China trade relations have cooled following a truce, uncertainties regarding tariffs and weaker domestic consumption continue to weigh on China’s economy. The data suggests that the boost from the trade truce is fading. While the US and China agreed in May to extend a 90-day tariff suspension, the looming expiration of the truce in mid-August, coupled with shifting production to lower-tariff countries like Vietnam, poses challenges. US tariffs on Chinese goods, which had been temporarily paused, could escalate once again, dampening export momentum for the second half of the year.<h2>Export orders and domestic demand continue to weaken</h2>New export orders were a key concern in the July data. The sub-index for new export orders remained in contraction for the 15th consecutive month, dipping to 47.1 from 47.7 in June. This decline points to the fading strength of China’s export sector, which had surged in the first half of the year in anticipation of tariff hikes. As the front-loaded shipments slow, a longer-term decline in export demand appears inevitable.On the domestic front, manufacturing demand was equally tepid. The new order index, which measures domestic demand for manufactured goods, also contracted, falling to 49.4 from 50.2 in June. This suggests that despite a modest recovery in the second quarter, the Chinese economy continues to struggle with sluggish household consumption, low private sector investment, and a real estate market weighed down by excess inventory and overcapacity in key industries.<h2>Mixed signals from services and economic support measures</h2>Adding to the concerns, the official non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, also saw a decline in July. The services PMI fell to 50.1, down from 50.5 in June, signalling that growth in the sector is slowing down. Despite the summer travel season boosting certain sectors like air transport and postal services, the overall services sector, including real estate and residential services, has seen weakening demand.Even though the PMI data paints a picture of a sluggish economy, China is not without policy support. In a move aimed at rebalancing the economy, Beijing has announced childcare subsidies to boost consumption and address the country’s demographic challenges. The scheme will offer 3,600 yuan ($501) annually until a child reaches the age of three, hoping to ease the burden on young families and encourage higher birth rates. This could eventually lead to a rebalancing of China’s economy, shifting from an export-driven model to one that relies more on domestic consumption.<h2>Economic slowdown is a real concern</h2>Despite the efforts made by the Chinese government, concerns about the future trajectory of China’s economy persist. Goldman Sachs analysts highlighted that weak manufacturing, along with an ongoing property market slowdown, suggests that economic stimulus might be needed to prevent further deceleration. While China’s GDP grew 5.2 per cent in the second quarter, well above expectations, analysts now forecast a significant slowdown in the second half of the year, especially if the tariffs are re-imposed.While some industries, such as high-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment production, showed signs of resilience, the broader outlook remains uncertain. Analysts suggest that the ongoing trade tensions and lacklustre domestic demand may stifle recovery efforts. As for the equities market, Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks took a hit, reflecting concerns about the country’s economic prospects.The PMI data is a strong indicator of an economic slowdown. With key indicators—such as manufacturing activity, new export orders, and domestic demand—contracting, China faces mounting challenges in sustaining its recovery. The fading impact of the trade truce, compounded by weak domestic consumption and industrial deflation, suggests that the economy is at a critical juncture.&nbsp;(With inputs fron agencies)

The contraction in manufacturing comes amid persistent domestic and external challenges. Notably, a series of adverse weather events, including heavy rains, high temperatures, and flooding in several regions, have strained production.

China’s manufacturing activity continued its downward trend in July, showing signs of economic deceleration despite the easing of US tariffs. According to data released by China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s official Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 49.3, down from 49.7 in June. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in manufacturing activity, and July's figure marked the lowest level since April. This data came in below market expectations, which had forecasted the PMI would hold steady at 49.7. The contraction in manufacturing comes amid persistent domestic and external challenges. Notably, a series of adverse weather events, including heavy rains, high temperatures, and flooding in several regions, have strained production. Additionally, the seasonal off-peak period for manufacturing has contributed to lower output. Experts also highlighted that while US-China trade relations have cooled following a truce, uncertainties regarding tariffs and weaker domestic consumption continue to weigh on China’s economy. The data suggests that the boost from the trade truce is fading. While the US and China agreed in May to extend a 90-day tariff suspension, the looming expiration of the truce in mid-August, coupled with shifting production to lower-tariff countries like Vietnam, poses challenges. US tariffs on Chinese goods, which had been temporarily paused, could escalate once again, dampening export momentum for the second half of the year. Export orders and domestic demand continue to weaken New export orders were a key concern in the July data. The sub-index for new export orders remained in contraction for the 15th consecutive month, dipping to 47.1 from 47.7 in June. This decline points to the fading strength of China’s export sector, which had surged in the first half of the year in anticipation of tariff hikes. As the front-loaded shipments slow, a longer-term decline in export demand appears inevitable. On the domestic front, manufacturing demand was equally tepid. The new order index, which measures domestic demand for manufactured goods, also contracted, falling to 49.4 from 50.2 in June. This suggests that despite a modest recovery in the second quarter, the Chinese economy continues to struggle with sluggish household consumption, low private sector investment, and a real estate market weighed down by excess inventory and overcapacity in key industries. Mixed signals from services and economic support measures Adding to the concerns, the official non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction, also saw a decline in July. The services PMI fell to 50.1, down from 50.5 in June, signalling that growth in the sector is slowing down. Despite the summer travel season boosting certain sectors like air transport and postal services, the overall services sector, including real estate and residential services, has seen weakening demand. Even though the PMI data paints a picture of a sluggish economy, China is not without policy support. In a move aimed at rebalancing the economy, Beijing has announced childcare subsidies to boost consumption and address the country’s demographic challenges. The scheme will offer 3,600 yuan ($501) annually until a child reaches the age of three, hoping to ease the burden on young families and encourage higher birth rates. This could eventually lead to a rebalancing of China’s economy, shifting from an export-driven model to one that relies more on domestic consumption. Economic slowdown is a real concern Despite the efforts made by the Chinese government, concerns about the future trajectory of China’s economy persist. Goldman Sachs analysts highlighted that weak manufacturing, along with an ongoing property market slowdown, suggests that economic stimulus might be needed to prevent further deceleration. While China’s GDP grew 5.2 per cent in the second quarter, well above expectations, analysts now forecast a significant slowdown in the second half of the year, especially if the tariffs are re-imposed. While some industries, such as high-tech manufacturing and high-end equipment production, showed signs of resilience, the broader outlook remains uncertain. Analysts suggest that the ongoing trade tensions and lacklustre domestic demand may stifle recovery efforts. As for the equities market, Hong Kong and mainland Chinese stocks took a hit, reflecting concerns about the country’s economic prospects. The PMI data is a strong indicator of an economic slowdown. With key indicators—such as manufacturing activity, new export orders, and domestic demand—contracting, China faces mounting challenges in sustaining its recovery. The fading impact of the trade truce, compounded by weak domestic consumption and industrial deflation, suggests that the economy is at a critical juncture. (With inputs fron agencies)

The contraction in manufacturing comes amid persistent domestic and external challenges. Notably, a series of adverse weather events, including heavy rains, high temperatures, and flooding in several regions, have strained production.

China’s manufacturing drops to lowest since April amid sluggish demand and exports

The United States, under President Donald Trump’s administration, has imposed a hefty 25 per cent tariff, plus an unspecified penalty for buying Russian oil and weapons, on goods imported from India, a move that has sent shockwaves through the trade relations between the two countries. This decision follows months of negotiations, which ultimately failed to reach a satisfactory deal. The new tariff set to be imposed from August 1 is expected to impact a range of sectors critical to India’s economy, from electronics and pharmaceuticals to textiles and gems.<h2>Why couldn't India and the US reach a deal?</h2>Trade talks between India and the US have been ongoing for months, but several points of contention remain unresolved. Here are the primary reasons why the two countries couldn't finalise a deal:1. High Indian tariffs: The US has long criticised India’s high tariffs on several goods, particularly in agriculture, which remain among the highest in the world. For example, India imposes nearly 39 per cent on agricultural products and up to 50 per cent on certain items like apples and corn. While India has been open to reducing these tariffs, it has resisted offering full access to its agricultural markets, fearing the impact on its domestic farmers.2. Market access: The US has been pushing India to open up its agricultural and dairy markets to American exports, a demand India has been unwilling to fully meet. There is a major concern in India that allowing in large-scale imports of items like genetically modified soybeans, wheat, and corn could harm local farmers and disrupt the agricultural balance.3. Geopolitical tensions: There’s also an underlying geopolitical element at play. India’s continued military ties with Russia, especially as it remains one of Russia’s largest buyers of energy and military equipment, have been a thorn in the side of US-India relations. President Trump has cited this as a major issue, criticising India for buying Russian oil despite global sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine. But India, which imports 80 per cent of its energy needs, stated that maintaining diverse sources of energy is critical for its national economy.4. Non-tariff barriers: The US has also raised concerns about India’s rising quality and safety barriers on imports. While these regulations are meant to protect local industries, they have been criticised for being restrictive and unfair to foreign exporters. This has been another significant roadblock in the negotiations.<h2>Impact of the tariff on Indian sectors</h2>The imposition of the 25 per cent tariff will have far-reaching consequences for key Indian industries that depend heavily on exports to the US. Here’s how various sectors are expected to be affected:1. Smartphones and electronicsIndia’s electronics industry, especially its smartphone sector, is among the hardest hit. India recently overtook China to become the top supplier of smartphones to the US, with a 44 per cent market share in the June quarter of 2025. The new tariffs are expected to significantly raise prices for US consumers, making Indian smartphones less competitive. In 2025, Indian electronics exports to the US exceeded $3 billion, and this will likely decline as a result of the tariff.2. Pharmaceuticals and genericsPharmaceuticals, another critical export sector for India, are also at risk. India is a leading exporter of generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) to the US, contributing over $7.5 billion annually. The higher tariffs could drive up the cost of these drugs in the US, potentially affecting access to affordable healthcare and weakening India’s position as the “world’s pharmacy.” Smaller players in the sector might suffer the most from these changes, especially if alternative suppliers from countries with lower tariffs, like Vietnam, begin to capture market share.3. Textiles and garmentsIndia’s textile industry, including garments, cotton fabric, and handloom products, is another area poised to feel the brunt of this tariff. The $2.5 billion worth of textiles exported to the US could face stiff price hikes, making Indian products less attractive to American buyers compared to competitors from other countries with lower tariffs, such as Vietnam and Indonesia. Smaller Indian exporters may find themselves squeezed out of the US market.4. Gems and jewelleryDiamonds, gold jewellery, and other gems are a major export category, with the US importing $8.5 billion worth from India in 2025. The tariffs could make Indian gems less competitive in the global market, especially as other suppliers, including China and Thailand, can offer similar products with lower costs due to their favourable trade terms with the US.5. Petroleum productsIndia exports about $20 billion worth of petroleum products to the US, including diesel, jet fuel, and LPG. This tariff is expected to add significant pressure on these products, especially as the US pushes for more stringent restrictions on imports, particularly from countries like India that are major buyers of Russian energy.<h2>Broader impact on the Indian economy</h2>The imposition of these tariffs comes at a sensitive time, as global supply chain disruptions and economic recovery post-pandemic have already put a strain on the economy. The US is India’s largest trading partner, and the $131 billion trade relationship is now under serious threat, as India will struggle to maintain its position as a major exporter to the US without making significant adjustments. The Indian rupee has already seen a dip in value, reflecting investor uncertainty about the long-term effects of the tariff.India's government is now under pressure to mitigate the damage by exploring alternative markets like the European Union, the United Kingdom, and West Asia—regions where India has already signed new trade deals. However, given that the US remains India’s largest export partner, it’s unrealistic to expect these alternative markets to fully compensate for the losses in the US, at least in the near future.India is already exploring ways to counteract the negative impact of this tariff by seeking to negotiate new trade agreements or make concessions in other sectors like defence and LNG exports. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump may hold further discussions to resolve this issue, but it remains uncertain whether a quick resolution is possible. The looming uncertainty in trade negotiations between the two countries is likely to continue impacting Indian exporters in the coming months.While the US tariffs on India may seem like a short-term setback, their long-term implications could reshape the nature of US-India trade and India’s export-driven economy. The next few months will be crucial in determining whether India can regain its footing in the US market or if new trading alliances can fill the gap.

The US is India’s largest trading partner, and the $131 billion trade relationship is now under serious threat, as India will struggle to maintain its position as a major exporter to the US without making significant adjustments.

The United States, under President Donald Trump’s administration, has imposed a hefty 25 per cent tariff, plus an unspecified penalty for buying Russian oil and weapons, on goods imported from India, a move that has sent shockwaves through the trade relations between the two countries. This decision follows months of negotiations, which ultimately failed to reach a satisfactory deal. The new tariff set to be imposed from August 1 is expected to impact a range of sectors critical to India’s economy, from electronics and pharmaceuticals to textiles and gems. Why couldn't India and the US reach a deal? Trade talks between India and the US have been ongoing for months, but several points of contention remain unresolved. Here are the primary reasons why the two countries couldn't finalise a deal: 1. High Indian tariffs: The US has long criticised India’s high tariffs on several goods, particularly in agriculture, which remain among the highest in the world. For example, India imposes nearly 39 per cent on agricultural products and up to 50 per cent on certain items like apples and corn. While India has been open to reducing these tariffs, it has resisted offering full access to its agricultural markets, fearing the impact on its domestic farmers. 2. Market access: The US has been pushing India to open up its agricultural and dairy markets to American exports, a demand India has been unwilling to fully meet. There is a major concern in India that allowing in large-scale imports of items like genetically modified soybeans, wheat, and corn could harm local farmers and disrupt the agricultural balance. 3. Geopolitical tensions: There’s also an underlying geopolitical element at play. India’s continued military ties with Russia, especially as it remains one of Russia’s largest buyers of energy and military equipment, have been a thorn in the side of US-India relations. President Trump has cited this as a major issue, criticising India for buying Russian oil despite global sanctions on Russia over its actions in Ukraine. But India, which imports 80 per cent of its energy needs, stated that maintaining diverse sources of energy is critical for its national economy. 4. Non-tariff barriers: The US has also raised concerns about India’s rising quality and safety barriers on imports. While these regulations are meant to protect local industries, they have been criticised for being restrictive and unfair to foreign exporters. This has been another significant roadblock in the negotiations. Impact of the tariff on Indian sectors The imposition of the 25 per cent tariff will have far-reaching consequences for key Indian industries that depend heavily on exports to the US. Here’s how various sectors are expected to be affected: 1. Smartphones and electronics India’s electronics industry, especially its smartphone sector, is among the hardest hit. India recently overtook China to become the top supplier of smartphones to the US, with a 44 per cent market share in the June quarter of 2025. The new tariffs are expected to significantly raise prices for US consumers, making Indian smartphones less competitive. In 2025, Indian electronics exports to the US exceeded $3 billion, and this will likely decline as a result of the tariff. 2. Pharmaceuticals and generics Pharmaceuticals, another critical export sector for India, are also at risk. India is a leading exporter of generic drugs and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) to the US, contributing over $7.5 billion annually. The higher tariffs could drive up the cost of these drugs in the US, potentially affecting access to affordable healthcare and weakening India’s position as the “world’s pharmacy.” Smaller players in the sector might suffer the most from these changes, especially if alternative suppliers from countries with lower tariffs, like Vietnam, begin to capture market share. 3. Textiles and garments India’s textile industry, including garments, cotton fabric, and handloom products, is another area poised to feel the brunt of this tariff. The $2.5 billion worth of textiles exported to the US could face stiff price hikes, making Indian products less attractive to American buyers compared to competitors from other countries with lower tariffs, such as Vietnam and Indonesia. Smaller Indian exporters may find themselves squeezed out of the US market. 4. Gems and jewellery Diamonds, gold jewellery, and other gems are a major export category, with the US importing $8.5 billion worth from India in 2025. The tariffs could make Indian gems less competitive in the global market, especially as other suppliers, including China and Thailand, can offer similar products with lower costs due to their favourable trade terms with the US. 5. Petroleum products India exports about $20 billion worth of petroleum products to the US, including diesel, jet fuel, and LPG. This tariff is expected to add significant pressure on these products, especially as the US pushes for more stringent restrictions on imports, particularly from countries like India that are major buyers of Russian energy. Broader impact on the Indian economy The imposition of these tariffs comes at a sensitive time, as global supply chain disruptions and economic recovery post-pandemic have already put a strain on the economy. The US is India’s largest trading partner, and the $131 billion trade relationship is now under serious threat, as India will struggle to maintain its position as a major exporter to the US without making significant adjustments. The Indian rupee has already seen a dip in value, reflecting investor uncertainty about the long-term effects of the tariff. India's government is now under pressure to mitigate the damage by exploring alternative markets like the European Union, the United Kingdom, and West Asia—regions where India has already signed new trade deals. However, given that the US remains India’s largest export partner, it’s unrealistic to expect these alternative markets to fully compensate for the losses in the US, at least in the near future. India is already exploring ways to counteract the negative impact of this tariff by seeking to negotiate new trade agreements or make concessions in other sectors like defence and LNG exports. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Trump may hold further discussions to resolve this issue, but it remains uncertain whether a quick resolution is possible. The looming uncertainty in trade negotiations between the two countries is likely to continue impacting Indian exporters in the coming months. While the US tariffs on India may seem like a short-term setback, their long-term implications could reshape the nature of US-India trade and India’s export-driven economy. The next few months will be crucial in determining whether India can regain its footing in the US market or if new trading alliances can fill the gap.

The US is India’s largest trading partner, and the $131 billion trade relationship is now under serious threat, as India will struggle to maintain its position as a major exporter to the US without making significant adjustments.

The US tariff hit on India: What’s happening and what’s at stake?

India’s most popular digital payment system, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), is undergoing a significant backend overhaul from August 1, 2025, as the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) introduces a fresh set of rules aimed at making the platform faster, more secure, and less prone to overload during peak hours. The changes, although largely invisible to casual users, are expected to streamline how frequently used services such as balance checks, account fetch requests, and auto-debit transactions operate in the background.<h2>Daily usage limits for key UPI functions</h2>One of the most significant changes is the introduction of daily limits on UPI-related requests. Starting August 1, users will be able to:<ul><li>Check their account balance only 50 times per day on each UPI app (like PhonePe, Paytm, or Google Pay).</li><li>Fetch linked account information (like listing bank accounts tied to the mobile number) a maximum of 25 times per day.</li><li>Check the status of a pending transaction only 3 times, with a mandatory 90-second gap between each attempt.</li></ul>NPCI believes these limits will help ease the pressure on backend servers, particularly during high-traffic periods, while maintaining smooth functionality for most users. However, to reduce the need for manual balance checks, banks will now be required to display updated balances automatically after each successful transaction.<h2>Scheduled processing for autopay and reversals</h2>Another major change is to UPI autopay, the feature used for subscriptions, SIPs (systematic investment plans), and recurring bill payments. These transactions will now be processed only in three fixed time slots:<ul><li>Before 10 AM</li><li>Between 1 PM and 5 PM</li><li>After 9:30 PM</li></ul>This scheduling is aimed at reducing congestion during peak payment hours (10 AM–1 PM and 5 PM–9:30 PM), when the platform is under maximum load. In addition, payment reversal requests will be capped at 10 per month, with a maximum of 5 allowed per sender.<h2>Stronger oversight, greater transparency</h2>The NPCI will also be closely monitoring how UPI apps and partner banks use critical APIs (application programming interfaces), focusing on their transaction-per-second (TPS) loads and request frequency. Non-compliance could lead to penalties or restricted access.In a welcome move for fraud prevention, users will now see the recipient’s bank name before confirming a transaction, adding another layer of transparency. The reforms come as UPI continues to surge, processing billions of transactions each month. The International Monetary Fund recently praised India’s payment infrastructure as the fastest globally, with UPI playing a central role since its launch in 2016.

The changes made in the Unified Payments Interface, although largely invisible to casual users, are expected to streamline how frequently used services such as balance checks, account fetch requests, and auto-debit transactions operate in the background.

India’s most popular digital payment system, the Unified Payments Interface (UPI), is undergoing a significant backend overhaul from August 1, 2025, as the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) introduces a fresh set of rules aimed at making the platform faster, more secure, and less prone to overload during peak hours. The changes, although largely invisible to casual users, are expected to streamline how frequently used services such as balance checks, account fetch requests, and auto-debit transactions operate in the background. Daily usage limits for key UPI functions One of the most significant changes is the introduction of daily limits on UPI-related requests. Starting August 1, users will be able to: Check their account balance only 50 times per day on each UPI app (like PhonePe, Paytm, or Google Pay). Fetch linked account information (like listing bank accounts tied to the mobile number) a maximum of 25 times per day. Check the status of a pending transaction only 3 times, with a mandatory 90-second gap between each attempt. NPCI believes these limits will help ease the pressure on backend servers, particularly during high-traffic periods, while maintaining smooth functionality for most users. However, to reduce the need for manual balance checks, banks will now be required to display updated balances automatically after each successful transaction. Scheduled processing for autopay and reversals Another major change is to UPI autopay, the feature used for subscriptions, SIPs (systematic investment plans), and recurring bill payments. These transactions will now be processed only in three fixed time slots: Before 10 AM Between 1 PM and 5 PM After 9:30 PM This scheduling is aimed at reducing congestion during peak payment hours (10 AM–1 PM and 5 PM–9:30 PM), when the platform is under maximum load. In addition, payment reversal requests will be capped at 10 per month, with a maximum of 5 allowed per sender. Stronger oversight, greater transparency The NPCI will also be closely monitoring how UPI apps and partner banks use critical APIs (application programming interfaces), focusing on their transaction-per-second (TPS) loads and request frequency. Non-compliance could lead to penalties or restricted access. In a welcome move for fraud prevention, users will now see the recipient’s bank name before confirming a transaction, adding another layer of transparency. The reforms come as UPI continues to surge, processing billions of transactions each month. The International Monetary Fund recently praised India’s payment infrastructure as the fastest globally, with UPI playing a central role since its launch in 2016.

The changes made in the Unified Payments Interface, although largely invisible to casual users, are expected to streamline how frequently used services such as balance checks, account fetch requests, and auto-debit transactions operate in the background.

UPI set for major revamp from August 1. Here’s what will change

Australia’s consumer price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than four years in the June quarter, boosting expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will resume interest rate cuts as early as August. Headline inflation rose just 2.1 per cent year-on-year, down from 2.4 per cent in the March quarter and below the 2.2 per cent median forecast from economists polled by Reuters. On a quarterly basis, the consumer price index (CPI) climbed 0.8 per cent, while core inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, rose 0.6 per cent, also softer than expectations.The annual pace of core inflation fell to 2.7 per cent, the lowest since mid-2021 and near the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3 per cent target range. The figures, released on July 30 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), reinforce the view that inflation has largely been tamed, especially with temporary government cost-of-living subsidies still exerting downward pressure on prices. Market reaction was swift, with traders pricing in a near-100 per cent chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the RBA’s next meeting on August 12. The Australian dollar held steady around $0.6512, and bond yields dipped as investors digested the softer inflation print.<h2>Services, housing prices ease; supply issues still bite</h2>Much of the disinflation stemmed from a broad-based easing in price pressures, particularly in housing, healthcare, and services. Notably, annual services inflation slowed to 3.3 per cent, the lowest in three years, helped by falling rents and insurance costs. The cost of new dwellings, which surged during the 2022-23 construction boom, rose just 0.7 per cent year-on-year, down sharply from a 1.6 per cent increase in Q1 and a peak of nearly 21 per cent two years ago. Builders have reportedly responded to soft demand with discounts and promotions.Still, some categories continued to face upward pressure. Egg prices spiked 19.1 per cent over the year due to avian flu-related supply disruptions, and non-alcoholic beverages became more expensive amid higher global prices for coffee, tea, and cocoa. Non-tradables, typically influenced by domestic conditions like rents and utility costs, rose 0.7 per cent in the quarter, while tradables, subject to global forces and currency movements, climbed 1 per cent.<h2>RBA expected to resume cuts amid weak growth outlook</h2>The inflation data comes as Australia’s broader economic momentum remains sluggish. GDP grew just 1.3 per cent year-on-year in Q1, missing forecasts, and unemployment rose to a 3.5-year high of 4.3 per cent in June.RBA Governor Michele Bullock had warned earlier this month that headline inflation might temporarily pick up later in the year as rebates expire. However, she also signalled a shift in focus toward supporting growth, noting that Australia didn’t hike rates as aggressively as other major economies during the pandemic-era inflation surge.Analysts at the Commonwealth Bank and Bank of America now expect a rate cut in August, with more to follow. AMP forecasts four additional cuts, bringing the cash rate down to 2.85 per cent by mid-2026.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

The figures on Australia’s inflation, released on July 30 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), reinforce the view that inflation has largely been tamed, especially with temporary government cost-of-living subsidies still exerting downward pressure on prices.

Australia’s consumer price growth slowed to its weakest pace in more than four years in the June quarter, boosting expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will resume interest rate cuts as early as August. Headline inflation rose just 2.1 per cent year-on-year, down from 2.4 per cent in the March quarter and below the 2.2 per cent median forecast from economists polled by Reuters. On a quarterly basis, the consumer price index (CPI) climbed 0.8 per cent, while core inflation, measured by the trimmed mean, rose 0.6 per cent, also softer than expectations. The annual pace of core inflation fell to 2.7 per cent, the lowest since mid-2021 and near the midpoint of the RBA’s 2-3 per cent target range. The figures, released on July 30 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), reinforce the view that inflation has largely been tamed, especially with temporary government cost-of-living subsidies still exerting downward pressure on prices. Market reaction was swift, with traders pricing in a near-100 per cent chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the RBA’s next meeting on August 12. The Australian dollar held steady around $0.6512, and bond yields dipped as investors digested the softer inflation print. Services, housing prices ease; supply issues still bite Much of the disinflation stemmed from a broad-based easing in price pressures, particularly in housing, healthcare, and services. Notably, annual services inflation slowed to 3.3 per cent, the lowest in three years, helped by falling rents and insurance costs. The cost of new dwellings, which surged during the 2022-23 construction boom, rose just 0.7 per cent year-on-year, down sharply from a 1.6 per cent increase in Q1 and a peak of nearly 21 per cent two years ago. Builders have reportedly responded to soft demand with discounts and promotions. Still, some categories continued to face upward pressure. Egg prices spiked 19.1 per cent over the year due to avian flu-related supply disruptions, and non-alcoholic beverages became more expensive amid higher global prices for coffee, tea, and cocoa. Non-tradables, typically influenced by domestic conditions like rents and utility costs, rose 0.7 per cent in the quarter, while tradables, subject to global forces and currency movements, climbed 1 per cent. RBA expected to resume cuts amid weak growth outlook The inflation data comes as Australia’s broader economic momentum remains sluggish. GDP grew just 1.3 per cent year-on-year in Q1, missing forecasts, and unemployment rose to a 3.5-year high of 4.3 per cent in June. RBA Governor Michele Bullock had warned earlier this month that headline inflation might temporarily pick up later in the year as rebates expire. However, she also signalled a shift in focus toward supporting growth, noting that Australia didn’t hike rates as aggressively as other major economies during the pandemic-era inflation surge. Analysts at the Commonwealth Bank and Bank of America now expect a rate cut in August, with more to follow. AMP forecasts four additional cuts, bringing the cash rate down to 2.85 per cent by mid-2026. (With inputs from agencies)

The figures on Australia’s inflation, released on July 30 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), reinforce the view that inflation has largely been tamed, especially with temporary government cost-of-living subsidies still exerting downward pressure on prices.

Australia’s inflation cools sharply, paving way for August rate cut

France’s economy unexpectedly accelerated in the second quarter of 2025, expanding 0.3 per cent from the previous quarter, according to official data released by statistics agency Insee on July 30. The figure outperformed economists’ expectations of 0.1 per cent growth and marks an improvement over the 0.1 per cent expansion seen in Q1. The positive headline number was largely driven by increased inventory buildup, which masked deeper signs of domestic weakness. Household consumption edged up by 0.1 per cent, a modest improvement following a 0.3 per cent decline in the first quarter, while business investment fell by 0.4 per cent.&nbsp;Trade continued to weigh on the economy, subtracting from overall output as exports underperformed. Despite the surprising growth figure, France’s economic outlook remains fragile, constrained by ongoing political instability, subdued consumer confidence, and uncertainties tied to transatlantic trade policy.<h2>Political fragility, trade tensions cast long shadow</h2>The better-than-expected growth offers a brief reprieve for Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s administration, which has been struggling to restore fiscal discipline and political cohesion after the government collapsed in late 2024. Though a new financial bill was passed in February, the ruling coalition still lacks a parliamentary majority and risks collapse if further austerity measures are rejected later this year. The government is targeting a reduction in the budget deficit from 5.4 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 4.6 per cent in 2026, with an eye on the European Union’s 3 per cent threshold by 2029.&nbsp;Finance Minister Eric Lombard welcomed the growth data as a sign that the French economy is “resisting relatively well, given the situation,” including trade uncertainty following the weekend announcement of a preliminary EU-US tariff deal. While the trade agreement may offer some stability going forward, it includes provisions for increased European spending on US military equipment, which analysts say could limit France’s ability to reduce domestic spending and rein in its deficit.<h2>Underlying indicators still point to economic weakness</h2>Beneath the headline GDP number, many economic indicators remain soft. Business sentiment in France has hovered below long-term averages for over a year, while household confidence is even weaker. Insee’s monthly measure of household savings propensity reached a record high, suggesting consumers are becoming increasingly cautious. Consumer spending in June provided a bright spot, rising 0.6 per cent month-over-month, beating expectations for a contraction, but analysts warn this may not indicate a sustained rebound.While Q2’s surprise acceleration offers some breathing space, France’s growth path remains dependent on a complex mix of domestic policy decisions, European fiscal rules, and the evolving contours of global trade.

The positive headline number was driven by increased inventory buildup, which masked deeper signs of domestic weakness. Household consumption edged up by 0.1 per cent, a modest improvement following a 0.3 per cent decline in the first quarter, while business investment fell by 0.4 per cent.

France’s economy unexpectedly accelerated in the second quarter of 2025, expanding 0.3 per cent from the previous quarter, according to official data released by statistics agency Insee on July 30. The figure outperformed economists’ expectations of 0.1 per cent growth and marks an improvement over the 0.1 per cent expansion seen in Q1. The positive headline number was largely driven by increased inventory buildup, which masked deeper signs of domestic weakness. Household consumption edged up by 0.1 per cent, a modest improvement following a 0.3 per cent decline in the first quarter, while business investment fell by 0.4 per cent. Trade continued to weigh on the economy, subtracting from overall output as exports underperformed. Despite the surprising growth figure, France’s economic outlook remains fragile, constrained by ongoing political instability, subdued consumer confidence, and uncertainties tied to transatlantic trade policy. Political fragility, trade tensions cast long shadow The better-than-expected growth offers a brief reprieve for Prime Minister Francois Bayrou’s administration, which has been struggling to restore fiscal discipline and political cohesion after the government collapsed in late 2024. Though a new financial bill was passed in February, the ruling coalition still lacks a parliamentary majority and risks collapse if further austerity measures are rejected later this year. The government is targeting a reduction in the budget deficit from 5.4 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 4.6 per cent in 2026, with an eye on the European Union’s 3 per cent threshold by 2029. Finance Minister Eric Lombard welcomed the growth data as a sign that the French economy is “resisting relatively well, given the situation,” including trade uncertainty following the weekend announcement of a preliminary EU-US tariff deal. While the trade agreement may offer some stability going forward, it includes provisions for increased European spending on US military equipment, which analysts say could limit France’s ability to reduce domestic spending and rein in its deficit. Underlying indicators still point to economic weakness Beneath the headline GDP number, many economic indicators remain soft. Business sentiment in France has hovered below long-term averages for over a year, while household confidence is even weaker. Insee’s monthly measure of household savings propensity reached a record high, suggesting consumers are becoming increasingly cautious. Consumer spending in June provided a bright spot, rising 0.6 per cent month-over-month, beating expectations for a contraction, but analysts warn this may not indicate a sustained rebound. While Q2’s surprise acceleration offers some breathing space, France’s growth path remains dependent on a complex mix of domestic policy decisions, European fiscal rules, and the evolving contours of global trade.

The positive headline number was driven by increased inventory buildup, which masked deeper signs of domestic weakness. Household consumption edged up by 0.1 per cent, a modest improvement following a 0.3 per cent decline in the first quarter, while business investment fell by 0.4 per cent.

France's economic growth beats forecasts despite trade, political headwinds

Singapore Airlines (SIA) has reported a steep 58.8 per cent year-on-year decline in net profit for the first quarter of the financial year 2025-26, weighed down heavily by its investment in Air India and broader industry headwinds. Net income dropped to S$186 million (US$145 million) in the April-June quarter, down from S$266 million (US$206.7 million) in the same period last year, marking its weakest financial performance in nearly a year. The poor results triggered a sharp reaction from investors, with SIA shares plunging as much as 8.7 per cent in early trading in Singapore, the largest intraday drop since August 2024.The earnings slump is largely attributed to the airline’s 25.1 per cent stake in Air India, which it began consolidating into its financial statements following the completion of the Vistara-Air India merger in November 2024. This is the first full quarter that Air India’s financials have been accounted for within SIA’s consolidated results.<h2>Air India losses weigh heavily on SIA</h2>Air India has emerged as a major operational and financial drag on Singapore Airlines. The Tata-owned carrier reported a net loss of ₹10,859 crore (US$1.25 billion) in FY25, despite revenue of ₹78,636 crore (US$9 billion). This made it the largest loss-making entity within the Tata Group during the fiscal year. Singapore Airlines absorbed S$122 million (US$94 million) in losses from its associated companies during the quarter, most of which came from its share in Air India. This marked a significant reversal from the previous year, when such investments contributed positively to the bottom line.Operationally, Air India continues to face turbulence following the June crash of Flight 171 shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, killing over 240 passengers and crew. The disaster, considered the worst in Indian aviation in over three decades, has triggered regulatory scrutiny and forced short-term capacity reductions. Investigations are ongoing, and the fallout is expected to affect performance in the coming quarters.<h2>Broader industry pressures and strategic shifts</h2>Beyond the impact from Air India, Singapore Airlines is also contending with multiple macroeconomic and industry-specific headwinds. Passenger yields declined 2.9 per cent year-on-year, cargo revenue was down 1.9 per cent, and interest income dropped 15 per cent. Competitive fare pressures, weaker returns on cash reserves, and muted demand in certain segments have further squeezed margins.Despite these challenges, Singapore Airlines has outlined a cautious growth strategy. The carrier is adding new regional routes in Malaysia and the Philippines and has expanded its codeshare agreement with Air India. It maintains a positive long-term outlook, citing resilient travel demand across major markets, though it remains alert to geopolitical instability and economic volatility. The carrier's quarterly revenue increased marginally by 1.5 per cent to S$4.8 billion (US$3.73 billion), suggesting that core demand for air travel remains intact even amid broader global uncertainty.<h2>Mixed market reactions</h2>Analysts responded with a range of views. JPMorgan downgraded the stock to ‘neutral’ with a price target of S$7.00 (US$5.44), noting the results as a significant miss. Citigroup pointed to weaker core profitability, while Morgan Stanley projected some stabilisation in passenger yields in the coming quarters, which could ease pressure on earnings.The airline industry globally is sending mixed signals. American Airlines recently lowered its earnings outlook due to aggressive fare discounts, while competitors like Delta and United Airlines have reported more stable demand trends. Against this backdrop, SIA’s results offer a glimpse into the growing complexity facing Asia-Pacific carriers in a volatile market.Despite the ongoing headwinds, Singapore Airlines has reiterated its commitment to the Indian market. The group plans to continue supporting Air India’s transformation in collaboration with Tata Sons, even as the Indian carrier struggles with integration costs, operational inefficiencies, and stiff competition from domestic rival IndiGo, which now commands nearly two-thirds of India’s market share.

The earnings slump is largely attributed to Singapore Airlines’ 25.1 per cent stake in Air India, which it began consolidating into its financial statements following the completion of the Vistara-Air India merger in November 2024. 

Singapore Airlines (SIA) has reported a steep 58.8 per cent year-on-year decline in net profit for the first quarter of the financial year 2025-26, weighed down heavily by its investment in Air India and broader industry headwinds. Net income dropped to S$186 million (US$145 million) in the April-June quarter, down from S$266 million (US$206.7 million) in the same period last year, marking its weakest financial performance in nearly a year. The poor results triggered a sharp reaction from investors, with SIA shares plunging as much as 8.7 per cent in early trading in Singapore, the largest intraday drop since August 2024. The earnings slump is largely attributed to the airline’s 25.1 per cent stake in Air India, which it began consolidating into its financial statements following the completion of the Vistara-Air India merger in November 2024. This is the first full quarter that Air India’s financials have been accounted for within SIA’s consolidated results. Air India losses weigh heavily on SIA Air India has emerged as a major operational and financial drag on Singapore Airlines. The Tata-owned carrier reported a net loss of ₹10,859 crore (US$1.25 billion) in FY25, despite revenue of ₹78,636 crore (US$9 billion). This made it the largest loss-making entity within the Tata Group during the fiscal year. Singapore Airlines absorbed S$122 million (US$94 million) in losses from its associated companies during the quarter, most of which came from its share in Air India. This marked a significant reversal from the previous year, when such investments contributed positively to the bottom line. Operationally, Air India continues to face turbulence following the June crash of Flight 171 shortly after takeoff from Ahmedabad, killing over 240 passengers and crew. The disaster, considered the worst in Indian aviation in over three decades, has triggered regulatory scrutiny and forced short-term capacity reductions. Investigations are ongoing, and the fallout is expected to affect performance in the coming quarters. Broader industry pressures and strategic shifts Beyond the impact from Air India, Singapore Airlines is also contending with multiple macroeconomic and industry-specific headwinds. Passenger yields declined 2.9 per cent year-on-year, cargo revenue was down 1.9 per cent, and interest income dropped 15 per cent. Competitive fare pressures, weaker returns on cash reserves, and muted demand in certain segments have further squeezed margins. Despite these challenges, Singapore Airlines has outlined a cautious growth strategy. The carrier is adding new regional routes in Malaysia and the Philippines and has expanded its codeshare agreement with Air India. It maintains a positive long-term outlook, citing resilient travel demand across major markets, though it remains alert to geopolitical instability and economic volatility. The carrier's quarterly revenue increased marginally by 1.5 per cent to S$4.8 billion (US$3.73 billion), suggesting that core demand for air travel remains intact even amid broader global uncertainty. Mixed market reactions Analysts responded with a range of views. JPMorgan downgraded the stock to ‘neutral’ with a price target of S$7.00 (US$5.44), noting the results as a significant miss. Citigroup pointed to weaker core profitability, while Morgan Stanley projected some stabilisation in passenger yields in the coming quarters, which could ease pressure on earnings. The airline industry globally is sending mixed signals. American Airlines recently lowered its earnings outlook due to aggressive fare discounts, while competitors like Delta and United Airlines have reported more stable demand trends. Against this backdrop, SIA’s results offer a glimpse into the growing complexity facing Asia-Pacific carriers in a volatile market. Despite the ongoing headwinds, Singapore Airlines has reiterated its commitment to the Indian market. The group plans to continue supporting Air India’s transformation in collaboration with Tata Sons, even as the Indian carrier struggles with integration costs, operational inefficiencies, and stiff competition from domestic rival IndiGo, which now commands nearly two-thirds of India’s market share.

The earnings slump is largely attributed to Singapore Airlines’ 25.1 per cent stake in Air India, which it began consolidating into its financial statements following the completion of the Vistara-Air India merger in November 2024.&nbsp;

Singapore Airlines hit by sharp decline in profit amid Air India turbulence

Tesla Inc. has signed a $4.3 billion agreement with South Korea’s LG Energy Solution (LGES) to supply lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries for its energy storage systems, marking a strategic move by the EV giant to localise its supply chain and reduce dependence on Chinese imports amid growing tariff headwinds. According to media reports, the deal will see LGES provide LFP batteries from its US-based facility in Michigan over a three-year period beginning in August 2027, with provisions for a potential seven-year extension and increased volumes depending on future demand. While neither Tesla nor LGES publicly named the customer, sources and market analysts widely point to Tesla as the buyer.The deal underscores Tesla’s accelerating pivot toward localised battery sourcing, particularly for its energy storage segment, which includes products like the Powerwall and Megapack. It is also the second major South Korea-linked agreement for the company this month, following a $16.5 billion chip supply partnership with Samsung Electronics to support Tesla’s next-generation AI chips.<h2>Shift toward LFP and local supply chains</h2>LFP batteries, while lower in energy density compared to nickel-based alternatives, offer significant advantages in cost, safety, and durability, making them increasingly attractive for stationary energy storage solutions. Unlike traditional lithium-ion batteries that rely on costly materials like cobalt and nickel, LFP batteries use more abundant and cheaper elements such as iron and phosphate.Tesla currently imports LFP batteries primarily from China, particularly from top supplier CATL. However, with tariffs on Chinese-made EV components rising, the economics of relying on Chinese imports have become less viable. Tesla Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja acknowledged in April that the company was actively seeking non-Chinese battery suppliers, though he noted it would take time to fully transition.LGES began LFP production at its Michigan factory in May and is one of the few manufacturers outside of China with significant US-based LFP capacity. Its existing $1.4 billion investment in the facility positions it well to capitalise on federal incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which encourages localised clean energy manufacturing through tax credits and other policy tools.<h2>Strategic implications for the battery industry</h2>For LGES, the deal is a significant step forward in its broader strategy to expand its footprint in the US energy storage market. The South Korean firm, which counts General Motors and Tesla among its top clients, has been exploring converting some EV battery production lines for energy storage systems in response to slowing global EV demand and growing demand for grid-scale storage.Industry analysts view the agreement as part of a broader reshaping of global battery supply chains, with companies and governments alike aiming to diversify away from Chinese dominance. The implications extend beyond the battery sector. Tesla’s twin deals with LGES and Samsung this month highlight the growing importance of South Korea in the company’s supply chain strategy, spanning both energy storage and artificial intelligence. With the global energy transition accelerating and trade policies becoming more fragmented, battery suppliers like LGES that can offer localised, scalable solutions are poised to gain substantial competitive advantage.<h2>A new era for energy storage</h2>As governments push for decarbonisation and grid modernisation, the need for reliable and affordable energy storage systems is surging. Tesla’s deal with LGES is a strategic response to this trend, ensuring supply chain resilience while aligning with US industrial policy. For LGES, it cements its place as a key player in North America’s energy transition.The deal also signals a shift in how automakers view batteries, not just as components for vehicles but as foundational technology for broader clean energy infrastructure. As such, the companies that adapt fastest to changing technologies and geopolitical realities will shape the future of the energy economy.

The deal will see LGES provide Tesla with LFP batteries from its US-based facility in Michigan over a three-year period beginning in August 2027, with provisions for a potential seven-year extension and increased volumes depending on future demand. 

Tesla Inc. has signed a $4.3 billion agreement with South Korea’s LG Energy Solution (LGES) to supply lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries for its energy storage systems, marking a strategic move by the EV giant to localise its supply chain and reduce dependence on Chinese imports amid growing tariff headwinds. According to media reports, the deal will see LGES provide LFP batteries from its US-based facility in Michigan over a three-year period beginning in August 2027, with provisions for a potential seven-year extension and increased volumes depending on future demand. While neither Tesla nor LGES publicly named the customer, sources and market analysts widely point to Tesla as the buyer. The deal underscores Tesla’s accelerating pivot toward localised battery sourcing, particularly for its energy storage segment, which includes products like the Powerwall and Megapack. It is also the second major South Korea-linked agreement for the company this month, following a $16.5 billion chip supply partnership with Samsung Electronics to support Tesla’s next-generation AI chips. Shift toward LFP and local supply chains LFP batteries, while lower in energy density compared to nickel-based alternatives, offer significant advantages in cost, safety, and durability, making them increasingly attractive for stationary energy storage solutions. Unlike traditional lithium-ion batteries that rely on costly materials like cobalt and nickel, LFP batteries use more abundant and cheaper elements such as iron and phosphate. Tesla currently imports LFP batteries primarily from China, particularly from top supplier CATL. However, with tariffs on Chinese-made EV components rising, the economics of relying on Chinese imports have become less viable. Tesla Chief Financial Officer Vaibhav Taneja acknowledged in April that the company was actively seeking non-Chinese battery suppliers, though he noted it would take time to fully transition. LGES began LFP production at its Michigan factory in May and is one of the few manufacturers outside of China with significant US-based LFP capacity. Its existing $1.4 billion investment in the facility positions it well to capitalise on federal incentives under the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which encourages localised clean energy manufacturing through tax credits and other policy tools. Strategic implications for the battery industry For LGES, the deal is a significant step forward in its broader strategy to expand its footprint in the US energy storage market. The South Korean firm, which counts General Motors and Tesla among its top clients, has been exploring converting some EV battery production lines for energy storage systems in response to slowing global EV demand and growing demand for grid-scale storage. Industry analysts view the agreement as part of a broader reshaping of global battery supply chains, with companies and governments alike aiming to diversify away from Chinese dominance. The implications extend beyond the battery sector. Tesla’s twin deals with LGES and Samsung this month highlight the growing importance of South Korea in the company’s supply chain strategy, spanning both energy storage and artificial intelligence. With the global energy transition accelerating and trade policies becoming more fragmented, battery suppliers like LGES that can offer localised, scalable solutions are poised to gain substantial competitive advantage. A new era for energy storage As governments push for decarbonisation and grid modernisation, the need for reliable and affordable energy storage systems is surging. Tesla’s deal with LGES is a strategic response to this trend, ensuring supply chain resilience while aligning with US industrial policy. For LGES, it cements its place as a key player in North America’s energy transition. The deal also signals a shift in how automakers view batteries, not just as components for vehicles but as foundational technology for broader clean energy infrastructure. As such, the companies that adapt fastest to changing technologies and geopolitical realities will shape the future of the energy economy.

The deal will see LGES provide Tesla with LFP batteries from its US-based facility in Michigan over a three-year period beginning in August 2027, with provisions for a potential seven-year extension and increased volumes depending on future demand.&nbsp;

Tesla strikes $4.3 billion battery deal with LG Energy Solution to cut reliance on China

The US goods trade deficit narrowed significantly in June to $86 billion, the lowest level in nearly two years, as imports fell sharply, reflecting subdued domestic demand and the lingering effects of trade policy uncertainty. The unexpected contraction, reported by the Commerce Department on July 29, is expected to provide a meaningful boost to second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures, due for release on July 30. Economists had forecast the goods trade gap would widen to $98.2 billion, but instead it shrank by 10.8 per cent from May’s revised $96.4 billion level. Imports dropped $11.5 billion, or 4.2 per cent, to $264.2 billion, led by a steep 12.4 per cent plunge in consumer goods. Industrial supplies, including crude oil and non-monetary gold, also fell by 5.5 per cent.<h2>Trade gap shrinks, but details signal caution</h2>While the narrowing trade deficit is expected to add significantly to GDP after dragging growth down in Q1, the underlying data revealed some red flags. Imports of food, motor vehicles, and other categories all declined, with only capital goods registering a modest 0.6 per cent increase. Goods exports also dipped by 0.6 per cent to $178.2 billion, weighed down by an 8.1 per cent decline in industrial supplies exports, though offset slightly by gains in capital goods and consumer goods.Economists at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have revised their Q2 GDP forecasts upward, with the Atlanta Fed now expecting a 2.9 per cent growth rate, up from its previous 2.4 per cent estimate. Wholesale and retail inventories, which also factor into GDP calculations, rose by 0.2 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively, in June. However, excluding motor vehicles, retail inventories were flat, a potential drag on the final output figure.<h2>Labour market softens as job openings and hiring decline</h2>Trade-related uncertainty has also seeped into the labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings fell by 275,000 in June to 7.437 million, with hiring dropping by 261,000 to 5.204 million. Accommodation and food services, a sector hard-hit by both tariffs and immigration policy shifts, saw job openings decline by 308,000 and hiring drop by 106,000.The separation rate in that sector rose as concerns mount over immigration crackdowns affecting legal work status. “Some increased churn in leisure hospitality in the last few months may already reflect factors like premature exits ahead of changes,” Citigroup economist Veronica Clark told Reuters. Despite the slowdown in hiring, layoffs remained stable at 1.604 million, suggesting employers are still hesitant to let workers go after years of tight labour supply.The Conference Board also reported that consumer perceptions of job availability worsened significantly in July, with the share of respondents viewing jobs as hard to get rising to the highest level in over four years. Consumer plans to purchase big-ticket items like vehicles and homes also declined.<h2>Fed expected to hold rates as growth picture remains mixed</h2>Despite a likely strong Q2 GDP headline, the broader economic outlook remains uncertain. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50 per cent following its policy meeting on July 30, resisting political pressure to cut borrowing costs further. While smaller trade deficits are poised to boost GDP temporarily, ongoing volatility from tariffs, inventory challenges, and a weakening labour market suggests the recovery may not yet be on solid footing.

Economists had forecast the goods trade deficit would widen to $98.2 billion, but instead it shrank by 10.8 per cent from May’s revised $96.4 billion level. Imports dropped $11.5 billion, or 4.2 per cent, to $264.2 billion, led by a steep 12.4 per cent plunge in consumer goods. 

The US goods trade deficit narrowed significantly in June to $86 billion, the lowest level in nearly two years, as imports fell sharply, reflecting subdued domestic demand and the lingering effects of trade policy uncertainty. The unexpected contraction, reported by the Commerce Department on July 29, is expected to provide a meaningful boost to second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) figures, due for release on July 30. Economists had forecast the goods trade gap would widen to $98.2 billion, but instead it shrank by 10.8 per cent from May’s revised $96.4 billion level. Imports dropped $11.5 billion, or 4.2 per cent, to $264.2 billion, led by a steep 12.4 per cent plunge in consumer goods. Industrial supplies, including crude oil and non-monetary gold, also fell by 5.5 per cent. Trade gap shrinks, but details signal caution While the narrowing trade deficit is expected to add significantly to GDP after dragging growth down in Q1, the underlying data revealed some red flags. Imports of food, motor vehicles, and other categories all declined, with only capital goods registering a modest 0.6 per cent increase. Goods exports also dipped by 0.6 per cent to $178.2 billion, weighed down by an 8.1 per cent decline in industrial supplies exports, though offset slightly by gains in capital goods and consumer goods. Economists at Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan have revised their Q2 GDP forecasts upward, with the Atlanta Fed now expecting a 2.9 per cent growth rate, up from its previous 2.4 per cent estimate. Wholesale and retail inventories, which also factor into GDP calculations, rose by 0.2 per cent and 0.3 per cent, respectively, in June. However, excluding motor vehicles, retail inventories were flat, a potential drag on the final output figure. Labour market softens as job openings and hiring decline Trade-related uncertainty has also seeped into the labour market. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed job openings fell by 275,000 in June to 7.437 million, with hiring dropping by 261,000 to 5.204 million. Accommodation and food services, a sector hard-hit by both tariffs and immigration policy shifts, saw job openings decline by 308,000 and hiring drop by 106,000. The separation rate in that sector rose as concerns mount over immigration crackdowns affecting legal work status. “Some increased churn in leisure hospitality in the last few months may already reflect factors like premature exits ahead of changes,” Citigroup economist Veronica Clark told Reuters. Despite the slowdown in hiring, layoffs remained stable at 1.604 million, suggesting employers are still hesitant to let workers go after years of tight labour supply. The Conference Board also reported that consumer perceptions of job availability worsened significantly in July, with the share of respondents viewing jobs as hard to get rising to the highest level in over four years. Consumer plans to purchase big-ticket items like vehicles and homes also declined. Fed expected to hold rates as growth picture remains mixed Despite a likely strong Q2 GDP headline, the broader economic outlook remains uncertain. The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25–4.50 per cent following its policy meeting on July 30, resisting political pressure to cut borrowing costs further. While smaller trade deficits are poised to boost GDP temporarily, ongoing volatility from tariffs, inventory challenges, and a weakening labour market suggests the recovery may not yet be on solid footing.

Economists had forecast the goods trade deficit would widen to $98.2 billion, but instead it shrank by 10.8 per cent from May’s revised $96.4 billion level. Imports dropped $11.5 billion, or 4.2 per cent, to $264.2 billion, led by a steep 12.4 per cent plunge in consumer goods.&nbsp;

US merchandise trade deficit narrows in June, fuelling Q2 GDP optimism

The US labour market showed further signs of cooling in June as job openings and hiring activity declined, particularly in sectors that had previously driven growth. According to the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on July 27, job openings fell by 275,000 to 7.44 million, in line with economists’ expectations. The drop comes after two months of gains and suggests demand for workers is moderating amid broader economic uncertainty. Hiring also edged down, slipping by 261,000 to 5.2 million. The decline was especially steep in the accommodation and food services sector, where job openings fell by 308,000 and hiring decreased by 106,000. This industry, once a post-pandemic employment engine, has cooled as businesses hesitate to expand amid concerns about trade policy and consumer demand.<h2>Quits stable, layoffs still low</h2>Despite the dip in openings and hires, the labour market hasn’t seen a corresponding rise in layoffs. Layoffs and discharges were virtually unchanged at 1.6 million, indicating that employers are reluctant to part with workers after years of labour shortages. Quits, often a signal of worker confidence, also held steady at 3.1 million.&nbsp;Job openings also declined in health care and social assistance (-244,000) and finance and insurance (-142,000), while increasing in retail trade (+190,000), information (+67,000), and state and local government education (+61,000). Separations in total, including quits, layoffs, and retirements, were little changed at 5.1 million. The quits rate, often viewed as a measure of employee confidence in the job market, remained at 2.0 per cent.<h2>Fed eyes labour trends amid tariff uncertainty</h2>The JOLTS report precedes the closely watched July employment report to be released on August 1, which is expected to show continued moderation in job growth. Economists predict that nonfarm payrolls will rise by 102,000, down from June’s 147,000, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2 per cent.The Federal Reserve, concluding its two-day policy meeting on July 30, is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25-04.50 per cent, despite pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. Chair Jerome Powell has described the labour market as “solid,” but policymakers are closely monitoring signs of weakening, particularly as tariff uncertainty weighs on hiring decisions.

According to the JOLTS released on July 27, job openings fell by 275,000 to 7.44 million, in line with economists’ expectations. The drop comes after two months of gains and suggests demand for workers is moderating amid broader economic uncertainty.

The US labour market showed further signs of cooling in June as job openings and hiring activity declined, particularly in sectors that had previously driven growth. According to the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on July 27, job openings fell by 275,000 to 7.44 million, in line with economists’ expectations. The drop comes after two months of gains and suggests demand for workers is moderating amid broader economic uncertainty. Hiring also edged down, slipping by 261,000 to 5.2 million. The decline was especially steep in the accommodation and food services sector, where job openings fell by 308,000 and hiring decreased by 106,000. This industry, once a post-pandemic employment engine, has cooled as businesses hesitate to expand amid concerns about trade policy and consumer demand. Quits stable, layoffs still low Despite the dip in openings and hires, the labour market hasn’t seen a corresponding rise in layoffs. Layoffs and discharges were virtually unchanged at 1.6 million, indicating that employers are reluctant to part with workers after years of labour shortages. Quits, often a signal of worker confidence, also held steady at 3.1 million. Job openings also declined in health care and social assistance (-244,000) and finance and insurance (-142,000), while increasing in retail trade (+190,000), information (+67,000), and state and local government education (+61,000). Separations in total, including quits, layoffs, and retirements, were little changed at 5.1 million. The quits rate, often viewed as a measure of employee confidence in the job market, remained at 2.0 per cent. Fed eyes labour trends amid tariff uncertainty The JOLTS report precedes the closely watched July employment report to be released on August 1, which is expected to show continued moderation in job growth. Economists predict that nonfarm payrolls will rise by 102,000, down from June’s 147,000, with the unemployment rate ticking up to 4.2 per cent. The Federal Reserve, concluding its two-day policy meeting on July 30, is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at 4.25-04.50 per cent, despite pressure from US President Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. Chair Jerome Powell has described the labour market as “solid,” but policymakers are closely monitoring signs of weakening, particularly as tariff uncertainty weighs on hiring decisions.

According to the JOLTS released on July 27, job openings fell by 275,000 to 7.44 million, in line with economists’ expectations. The drop comes after two months of gains and suggests demand for workers is moderating amid broader economic uncertainty.

US job openings dip in June as labour market shows signs of gradual cooling

Top US and Chinese trade officials concluded two days of high-level talks on July 29 with a mutual agreement to push for an extension of the current 90-day tariff truce, amid growing concerns that the world’s two largest economies could reignite a trade war if no deal is reached by the August 12 deadline. While no formal breakthroughs were announced, officials on both sides described the meetings as “constructive,” reflecting a cautiously optimistic tone that contrasted with the tense atmosphere earlier this year when tariff rates escalated into triple digits.<h2>Truce extension on the table as August deadline looms</h2>The meetings, held in Stockholm, included US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, along with China’s top trade negotiator Li Chenggang and Vice Premier He Lifeng. They reviewed prior agreements reached in Geneva and London and explored mechanisms to continue pausing mutual tariffs, including the 24 per cent levies currently suspended. “Nothing is agreed until we speak with President Trump,” Bessent told reporters, adding that the final decision rests with the president. “But the meetings were very constructive. We just haven’t given the sign-off.”Bessent is expected to brief Trump in Washington on July 30 following the president’s return from Scotland, where he signed a separate trade pact with the European Union. Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One, said Bessent felt “very good” about the China meetings and hinted at the possibility of extending the truce another 90 days. Chinese officials, meanwhile, echoed similar sentiments, emphasising cooperation and the broader stakes involved. “The two sides should further deepen dialogue and strive for more win-win outcomes,” Vice Premier He Lifeng said. “Confrontation harms both sides.”<h2>Rare earths, trade balance, and geopolitical friction in focus</h2>The talks tackled a wide range of economic and strategic issues beyond tariffs. A key point of contention remains China’s control over rare earth minerals, critical to technologies such as electric vehicles and military hardware. Recent months have seen Beijing slow the export of these minerals in response to US curbs on semiconductor and AI chip sales to China.While both parties avoided publicly discussing security-sensitive topics like TikTok or China’s ties with Russia and Iran, US negotiators did raise concerns over China’s export-driven industrial model. They pressed for reforms that would increase Chinese consumer demand, which in turn could create more opportunities for US exports. “We’re not looking to decouple,” Bessent said. “We just need to de-risk in certain strategic industries—rare earths, semiconductors, and medicines.”Bessent and Greer said they expect another round of talks in roughly 90 days, regardless of whether the current pause is extended. They also noted growing “personal interaction and mutual respect” between the negotiating teams.<h2>Momentum builds, but risks remain</h2>The International Monetary Fund on July 29 flagged the potential expiration of the US-China truce as a major global economic risk, despite raising its growth forecast. Any failure to extend the truce could see tariffs “boomerang” back to triple-digit levels, threatening global supply chains and financial markets.Trump, who has long decried the US trade deficit with China, claimed recent deals with Japan, Indonesia, and the EU demonstrate growing momentum. US officials also said they were on track to reduce the trade imbalance with China by $50 billion this year. A future meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping remains on the horizon, with both sides suggesting it could happen by the end of the year—though no formal plans have been announced.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

The officials from US and China reviewed prior agreements reached in Geneva and London and explored mechanisms to continue pausing mutual tariffs, including the 24 per cent levies currently suspended. 

Top US and Chinese trade officials concluded two days of high-level talks on July 29 with a mutual agreement to push for an extension of the current 90-day tariff truce, amid growing concerns that the world’s two largest economies could reignite a trade war if no deal is reached by the August 12 deadline. While no formal breakthroughs were announced, officials on both sides described the meetings as “constructive,” reflecting a cautiously optimistic tone that contrasted with the tense atmosphere earlier this year when tariff rates escalated into triple digits. Truce extension on the table as August deadline looms The meetings, held in Stockholm, included US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, along with China’s top trade negotiator Li Chenggang and Vice Premier He Lifeng. They reviewed prior agreements reached in Geneva and London and explored mechanisms to continue pausing mutual tariffs, including the 24 per cent levies currently suspended. “Nothing is agreed until we speak with President Trump,” Bessent told reporters, adding that the final decision rests with the president. “But the meetings were very constructive. We just haven’t given the sign-off.” Bessent is expected to brief Trump in Washington on July 30 following the president’s return from Scotland, where he signed a separate trade pact with the European Union. Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One, said Bessent felt “very good” about the China meetings and hinted at the possibility of extending the truce another 90 days. Chinese officials, meanwhile, echoed similar sentiments, emphasising cooperation and the broader stakes involved. “The two sides should further deepen dialogue and strive for more win-win outcomes,” Vice Premier He Lifeng said. “Confrontation harms both sides.” Rare earths, trade balance, and geopolitical friction in focus The talks tackled a wide range of economic and strategic issues beyond tariffs. A key point of contention remains China’s control over rare earth minerals, critical to technologies such as electric vehicles and military hardware. Recent months have seen Beijing slow the export of these minerals in response to US curbs on semiconductor and AI chip sales to China. While both parties avoided publicly discussing security-sensitive topics like TikTok or China’s ties with Russia and Iran, US negotiators did raise concerns over China’s export-driven industrial model. They pressed for reforms that would increase Chinese consumer demand, which in turn could create more opportunities for US exports. “We’re not looking to decouple,” Bessent said. “We just need to de-risk in certain strategic industries—rare earths, semiconductors, and medicines.” Bessent and Greer said they expect another round of talks in roughly 90 days, regardless of whether the current pause is extended. They also noted growing “personal interaction and mutual respect” between the negotiating teams. Momentum builds, but risks remain The International Monetary Fund on July 29 flagged the potential expiration of the US-China truce as a major global economic risk, despite raising its growth forecast. Any failure to extend the truce could see tariffs “boomerang” back to triple-digit levels, threatening global supply chains and financial markets. Trump, who has long decried the US trade deficit with China, claimed recent deals with Japan, Indonesia, and the EU demonstrate growing momentum. US officials also said they were on track to reduce the trade imbalance with China by $50 billion this year. A future meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping remains on the horizon, with both sides suggesting it could happen by the end of the year—though no formal plans have been announced. (With inputs from agencies)

The officials from US and China reviewed prior agreements reached in Geneva and London and explored mechanisms to continue pausing mutual tariffs, including the 24 per cent levies currently suspended.&nbsp;

US and China signal intent to extend tariff truce after constructive talks in Stockholm

At the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) 2025, China presented a bold vision for its role in shaping the global AI landscape, offering an alternative to the US’ “America First” approach. The three-day event, which concluded on July 28, attracted more than 800 companies, including tech giants like Tencent, Alibaba, and Huawei, as well as international leaders from Google, including former CEO Eric Schmidt. The showcase, featuring robots, flying taxis, and AI-driven technologies, underscored China’s efforts to position itself as a champion of multilateralism and international collaboration in the AI race.During his keynote speech, Premier Li Qiang outlined China's approach to AI governance, which contrasts with the US's recent AI action plan focused on national dominance. Li emphasised the importance of global cooperation, suggesting that AI governance should not be monopolised by a few countries or tech giants. “If we engage in technological monopoly, AI will become an exclusive game for a small number of countries and enterprises,” he warned. His comments came just days after the Trump administration unveiled its own strategy for AI supremacy, which included removing bureaucratic barriers and reinforcing US leadership in the field.<h2>China’s AI alliances and technological showcases</h2>One of the key announcements at WAIC was the formation of two new industry alliances aimed at bolstering China’s domestic AI ecosystem in the wake of US export restrictions on advanced semiconductors. The “Model-Chip Ecosystem Innovation Alliance” is a collaboration between Chinese large language model (LLM) developers and chip manufacturers, including Huawei and other firms impacted by US sanctions. The alliance aims to create a self-sustaining ecosystem, reducing China’s dependence on foreign technology, especially in the critical AI chip sector.Another alliance, the Shanghai General Chamber of Commerce AI Committee, seeks to integrate AI technologies into industrial applications, marking a shift from purely consumer-driven AI solutions to those targeting broader economic sectors. Companies such as SenseTime, a leader in AI-driven facial recognition technologies, are pivoting to LLMs, underscoring the speed of China's AI sector evolution.On the exhibition floor, China’s AI prowess was evident in the numerous product debuts. Huawei introduced the CloudMatrix 384, an AI computing system said to rival Nvidia’s offerings. The system uses 384 Huawei 910C chips, demonstrating the company’s ability to produce competitive alternatives to US-made AI chips despite facing export restrictions. Other Chinese firms, including Metax and Iluvatar CoreX, showcased their own advancements in AI chip technology, further signalling China’s increasing self-reliance in this critical domain.Among the most talked-about innovations were consumer-orientated products like Alibaba’s Qwen AI Glasses, which will enable users to navigate and make payments through voice commands. These smart glasses, slated for release in 2025, exemplify China’s drive to integrate AI seamlessly into everyday life.<h2>International collaboration and ethical concerns</h2>The global impact of AI was a recurring theme at the conference, with several prominent figures urging international cooperation on AI safety and regulation. Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, called for the US and China to collaborate on AI safety, highlighting the existential risks that come with the rapid proliferation of AI technologies. He noted that both countries, as the world’s largest economic players, have a shared responsibility to ensure that AI remains a force for good.AI ethics and safety were hotly debated, with some experts expressing concerns over China’s open-source approach to AI models. While the open-source model allows for greater collaboration and innovation, it also opens the door for misuse by bad actors. Despite this, China remains committed to advancing its AI technologies, having invested heavily in research and development. Between 2013 and 2023, China’s state venture capital firms pumped an estimated $209 billion into AI businesses. The nation’s AI industry is valued at approximately $84 billion, with expectations to top $400 billion in public spending this year alone.Experts are also taking note of China’s rapid progress in AI. The launch of DeepSeek’s breakthrough AI model, which outpaced models developed by Meta and Anthropic, sent shockwaves through the global AI community. The model, developed with just $5.6 million, was far more cost-effective than similar offerings from US companies, signalling China’s ability to deliver high-quality AI products at a fraction of the cost.The WAIC 2025 expo demonstrated China’s growing confidence in its AI sector, with the country positioning itself as a leader in shaping the future of artificial intelligence. As Premier Li Qiang emphasised, AI governance should be a collaborative effort, with countries working together to create a global framework that ensures AI serves humanity's best interests.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

Chinese Premier Li Qiang outlined China's approach to AI governance, which contrasts with the US's recent AI action plan focused on national dominance, emphasising the importance of global cooperation, and suggesting that AI governance should not be monopolised by a few nations or tech firms.

At the World Artificial Intelligence Conference (WAIC) 2025, China presented a bold vision for its role in shaping the global AI landscape, offering an alternative to the US’ “America First” approach. The three-day event, which concluded on July 28, attracted more than 800 companies, including tech giants like Tencent, Alibaba, and Huawei, as well as international leaders from Google, including former CEO Eric Schmidt. The showcase, featuring robots, flying taxis, and AI-driven technologies, underscored China’s efforts to position itself as a champion of multilateralism and international collaboration in the AI race. During his keynote speech, Premier Li Qiang outlined China's approach to AI governance, which contrasts with the US's recent AI action plan focused on national dominance. Li emphasised the importance of global cooperation, suggesting that AI governance should not be monopolised by a few countries or tech giants. “If we engage in technological monopoly, AI will become an exclusive game for a small number of countries and enterprises,” he warned. His comments came just days after the Trump administration unveiled its own strategy for AI supremacy, which included removing bureaucratic barriers and reinforcing US leadership in the field. China’s AI alliances and technological showcases One of the key announcements at WAIC was the formation of two new industry alliances aimed at bolstering China’s domestic AI ecosystem in the wake of US export restrictions on advanced semiconductors. The “Model-Chip Ecosystem Innovation Alliance” is a collaboration between Chinese large language model (LLM) developers and chip manufacturers, including Huawei and other firms impacted by US sanctions. The alliance aims to create a self-sustaining ecosystem, reducing China’s dependence on foreign technology, especially in the critical AI chip sector. Another alliance, the Shanghai General Chamber of Commerce AI Committee, seeks to integrate AI technologies into industrial applications, marking a shift from purely consumer-driven AI solutions to those targeting broader economic sectors. Companies such as SenseTime, a leader in AI-driven facial recognition technologies, are pivoting to LLMs, underscoring the speed of China's AI sector evolution. On the exhibition floor, China’s AI prowess was evident in the numerous product debuts. Huawei introduced the CloudMatrix 384, an AI computing system said to rival Nvidia’s offerings. The system uses 384 Huawei 910C chips, demonstrating the company’s ability to produce competitive alternatives to US-made AI chips despite facing export restrictions. Other Chinese firms, including Metax and Iluvatar CoreX, showcased their own advancements in AI chip technology, further signalling China’s increasing self-reliance in this critical domain. Among the most talked-about innovations were consumer-orientated products like Alibaba’s Qwen AI Glasses, which will enable users to navigate and make payments through voice commands. These smart glasses, slated for release in 2025, exemplify China’s drive to integrate AI seamlessly into everyday life. International collaboration and ethical concerns The global impact of AI was a recurring theme at the conference, with several prominent figures urging international cooperation on AI safety and regulation. Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, called for the US and China to collaborate on AI safety, highlighting the existential risks that come with the rapid proliferation of AI technologies. He noted that both countries, as the world’s largest economic players, have a shared responsibility to ensure that AI remains a force for good. AI ethics and safety were hotly debated, with some experts expressing concerns over China’s open-source approach to AI models. While the open-source model allows for greater collaboration and innovation, it also opens the door for misuse by bad actors. Despite this, China remains committed to advancing its AI technologies, having invested heavily in research and development. Between 2013 and 2023, China’s state venture capital firms pumped an estimated $209 billion into AI businesses. The nation’s AI industry is valued at approximately $84 billion, with expectations to top $400 billion in public spending this year alone. Experts are also taking note of China’s rapid progress in AI. The launch of DeepSeek’s breakthrough AI model, which outpaced models developed by Meta and Anthropic, sent shockwaves through the global AI community. The model, developed with just $5.6 million, was far more cost-effective than similar offerings from US companies, signalling China’s ability to deliver high-quality AI products at a fraction of the cost. The WAIC 2025 expo demonstrated China’s growing confidence in its AI sector, with the country positioning itself as a leader in shaping the future of artificial intelligence. As Premier Li Qiang emphasised, AI governance should be a collaborative effort, with countries working together to create a global framework that ensures AI serves humanity's best interests. (With inputs from agencies)

Chinese Premier Li Qiang outlined China's approach to AI governance, which contrasts with the US's recent AI action plan focused on national dominance, emphasising the importance of global cooperation, and suggesting that AI governance should not be monopolised by a few nations or tech firms.

China lays out ambitious AI vision, countering US’ America First plan

In response to ongoing trade tensions with the United States and the challenges posed by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, China has made a notable shift in its fiscal policy. The country has dramatically increased social welfare spending, marking the highest level of expenditure on social programs in nearly two decades. This pivot toward supporting domestic consumption and boosting household well-being comes as China faces a record budget deficit and an economic slowdown exacerbated by the trade war.According to data released on July 28, government spending on social welfare-related outlays reached nearly 5.7 trillion yuan ($795 billion) in the first half of 2025, representing a 6.4 per cent year-on-year increase. This marks the highest level of social welfare expenditure since 2007. The increase in social spending is almost double the rise in total government expenditure under the general public budget. In comparison, infrastructure-related spending saw a 4.5 per cent decrease from the previous year, signalling that the government is prioritising welfare over traditional investments in large-scale infrastructure projects.The uptick in social spending is part of a broader strategy to support domestic demand and counter the economic impact of US tariffs. Analysts suggest that the shift in fiscal policy is critical as China seeks to mitigate job losses and bolster its social safety net, which has been under pressure due to the trade conflict.<h2>New initiatives to boost birth rates and employment support</h2>In a direct effort to support families and improve employment prospects, the Chinese government has unveiled a nationwide cash handout program for couples. Starting later this year, families with children under the age of three will receive annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($501.5) per child. The initiative aims to address China’s declining birth rates, which have been exacerbated by rising living costs and limited childcare options.The decision to ramp up social welfare comes as government officials look to bolster domestic demand in the face of a declining export market. China’s shipments to the United States have slumped due to the ongoing trade war, with tariffs as high as 51 per cent on Chinese goods. Citigroup estimates that the cost of the child welfare program could reach up to 117 billion yuan ($16.30 billion) in the second half of 2025, while Morgan Stanley predicts it could cost around 100 billion yuan ($13.93 billion) annually.In addition to childcare subsidies, the government has also increased spending on social security and employment, with outlays rising by almost 8 per cent in the first half of 2025. A record low employment sentiment index, as revealed by the People's Bank of China’s recent survey, underscores the need for additional government support in this area.<h2>Strained government revenues and shifting priorities</h2>Despite the increased spending on social programs, government revenues have been under strain. Tax revenue for the first half of the year fell by 1.2 per cent year-on-year, amounting to 9.29 trillion yuan ($1.29 trillion). The most significant drop came from the vehicle purchase tax, which plunged 19.1 per cent, reflecting the impact of a government decision to extend the suspension of the levy on new energy vehicles through 2027. This shift to electric cars has also weighed heavily on consumption taxes, particularly those levied on gasoline and diesel.Meanwhile, local governments have been cautious in issuing new bonds, with 56 per cent of the annual quota for special local bonds already used up. This is lower than the 61 per cent average in previous years, as provinces are now prioritising social welfare programs over infrastructure projects. Despite this, China remains committed to major infrastructure projects, including the construction of a 1.2 trillion yuan ($167.18 billion) mega-dam in Tibet, though analysts suggest the scope for new infrastructure expansion may be shrinking.The government’s strategy of prioritising social spending over traditional growth drivers, such as infrastructure, reflects the pressing need to shore up domestic demand and maintain stability in an increasingly uncertain global environment.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

The uptick in China's social spending is part of a broader strategy to support domestic demand and counter the economic impact of US tariffs. Analysts suggest that the shift in fiscal policy is critical as China seeks to mitigate job losses and bolster its social safety net.

In response to ongoing trade tensions with the United States and the challenges posed by US President Donald Trump’s tariffs, China has made a notable shift in its fiscal policy. The country has dramatically increased social welfare spending, marking the highest level of expenditure on social programs in nearly two decades. This pivot toward supporting domestic consumption and boosting household well-being comes as China faces a record budget deficit and an economic slowdown exacerbated by the trade war. According to data released on July 28, government spending on social welfare-related outlays reached nearly 5.7 trillion yuan ($795 billion) in the first half of 2025, representing a 6.4 per cent year-on-year increase. This marks the highest level of social welfare expenditure since 2007. The increase in social spending is almost double the rise in total government expenditure under the general public budget. In comparison, infrastructure-related spending saw a 4.5 per cent decrease from the previous year, signalling that the government is prioritising welfare over traditional investments in large-scale infrastructure projects. The uptick in social spending is part of a broader strategy to support domestic demand and counter the economic impact of US tariffs. Analysts suggest that the shift in fiscal policy is critical as China seeks to mitigate job losses and bolster its social safety net, which has been under pressure due to the trade conflict. New initiatives to boost birth rates and employment support In a direct effort to support families and improve employment prospects, the Chinese government has unveiled a nationwide cash handout program for couples. Starting later this year, families with children under the age of three will receive annual subsidies of 3,600 yuan ($501.5) per child. The initiative aims to address China’s declining birth rates, which have been exacerbated by rising living costs and limited childcare options. The decision to ramp up social welfare comes as government officials look to bolster domestic demand in the face of a declining export market. China’s shipments to the United States have slumped due to the ongoing trade war, with tariffs as high as 51 per cent on Chinese goods. Citigroup estimates that the cost of the child welfare program could reach up to 117 billion yuan ($16.30 billion) in the second half of 2025, while Morgan Stanley predicts it could cost around 100 billion yuan ($13.93 billion) annually. In addition to childcare subsidies, the government has also increased spending on social security and employment, with outlays rising by almost 8 per cent in the first half of 2025. A record low employment sentiment index, as revealed by the People's Bank of China’s recent survey, underscores the need for additional government support in this area. Strained government revenues and shifting priorities Despite the increased spending on social programs, government revenues have been under strain. Tax revenue for the first half of the year fell by 1.2 per cent year-on-year, amounting to 9.29 trillion yuan ($1.29 trillion). The most significant drop came from the vehicle purchase tax, which plunged 19.1 per cent, reflecting the impact of a government decision to extend the suspension of the levy on new energy vehicles through 2027. This shift to electric cars has also weighed heavily on consumption taxes, particularly those levied on gasoline and diesel. Meanwhile, local governments have been cautious in issuing new bonds, with 56 per cent of the annual quota for special local bonds already used up. This is lower than the 61 per cent average in previous years, as provinces are now prioritising social welfare programs over infrastructure projects. Despite this, China remains committed to major infrastructure projects, including the construction of a 1.2 trillion yuan ($167.18 billion) mega-dam in Tibet, though analysts suggest the scope for new infrastructure expansion may be shrinking. The government’s strategy of prioritising social spending over traditional growth drivers, such as infrastructure, reflects the pressing need to shore up domestic demand and maintain stability in an increasingly uncertain global environment. (With inputs from agencies)

The uptick in China's social spending is part of a broader strategy to support domestic demand and counter the economic impact of US tariffs. Analysts suggest that the shift in fiscal policy is critical as China seeks to mitigate job losses and bolster its social safety net.

China shifts focus to social welfare spending amid trade tensions with US

China’s trade has hit its first significant speed bump since May, with the latest data revealing a drop in cargo throughput at the nation’s ports. Last week, the number of containers processed fell to 6.2 million, marking a 7 per cent decline from the previous week and the lowest figure since the second week of May. This slowdown signals that the historic trade volumes seen in May and June, when over 30 million containers were processed per month, may be starting to lose momentum.While May and June marked a high point for China’s trade, driven by a push to get ahead of US tariffs under US President Donald Trump’s trade war, analysts suggest that this burst of activity may now be winding down. Tariff concerns, particularly the ongoing threat of 50 per cent duties on Chinese goods, continue to weigh on trade as the US negotiates deals with other global partners, such as the European Union and Japan.<h2>Impact of US-China tariffs on exports and imports</h2>China’s trade with the US has been significantly impacted by the tariff uncertainty, especially in the first half of 2025. The US imposed various tariffs, including rates of up to 145 per cent at one point, reducing the volume of Chinese goods entering the US. In response, countries like those in ASEAN and the EU have become increasingly important trading partners, mitigating the losses in the US-bound shipments.Despite the decline in exports to the US, domestic trade has remained resilient. According to the Ministry of Transport, China’s ports handled a total cargo throughput of 8.9 billion tonnes in the first half of 2025, a 4 per cent year-on-year increase. Domestic logistics rose by 5 per cent, while foreign trade grew by 1.8 per cent. The growth in container throughput, which reached 170 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units), up 6.9 per cent from the previous year, suggests that China’s domestic economy is largely sustaining itself amid global uncertainties.<h2>Geopolitical tensions and the broader impact on logistics</h2>Alongside the tariff-induced slowdown, China’s broader logistics sector continues to show resilience. The total value of social logistics in the first half of 2025 grew by 5.6 per cent to reach 171.3 trillion yuan ($23.86 trillion), highlighting the strength of domestic demand. Industrial logistics, in particular, rose by 5.8 per cent, driven by strong demand in sectors like high-tech manufacturing and equipment production. The rebound in bulk commodity imports, such as crude oil and semiconductor chips, further indicates a diversified and robust logistics ecosystem.However, the ripple effects of tariff uncertainties remain, especially in light of the US potentially imposing new tariffs. The slowdown in cargo throughput and shifting global trade patterns suggest that China's trade landscape is evolving, with the longer-term impact of tariff policies still unfolding.

While May and June marked a high point for China’s trade, driven by a push to get ahead of US tariffs under US President Donald Trump’s trade war, analysts suggest that this burst of activity may now be winding down.

China’s trade has hit its first significant speed bump since May, with the latest data revealing a drop in cargo throughput at the nation’s ports. Last week, the number of containers processed fell to 6.2 million, marking a 7 per cent decline from the previous week and the lowest figure since the second week of May. This slowdown signals that the historic trade volumes seen in May and June, when over 30 million containers were processed per month, may be starting to lose momentum. While May and June marked a high point for China’s trade, driven by a push to get ahead of US tariffs under US President Donald Trump’s trade war, analysts suggest that this burst of activity may now be winding down. Tariff concerns, particularly the ongoing threat of 50 per cent duties on Chinese goods, continue to weigh on trade as the US negotiates deals with other global partners, such as the European Union and Japan. Impact of US-China tariffs on exports and imports China’s trade with the US has been significantly impacted by the tariff uncertainty, especially in the first half of 2025. The US imposed various tariffs, including rates of up to 145 per cent at one point, reducing the volume of Chinese goods entering the US. In response, countries like those in ASEAN and the EU have become increasingly important trading partners, mitigating the losses in the US-bound shipments. Despite the decline in exports to the US, domestic trade has remained resilient. According to the Ministry of Transport, China’s ports handled a total cargo throughput of 8.9 billion tonnes in the first half of 2025, a 4 per cent year-on-year increase. Domestic logistics rose by 5 per cent, while foreign trade grew by 1.8 per cent. The growth in container throughput, which reached 170 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units), up 6.9 per cent from the previous year, suggests that China’s domestic economy is largely sustaining itself amid global uncertainties. Geopolitical tensions and the broader impact on logistics Alongside the tariff-induced slowdown, China’s broader logistics sector continues to show resilience. The total value of social logistics in the first half of 2025 grew by 5.6 per cent to reach 171.3 trillion yuan ($23.86 trillion), highlighting the strength of domestic demand. Industrial logistics, in particular, rose by 5.8 per cent, driven by strong demand in sectors like high-tech manufacturing and equipment production. The rebound in bulk commodity imports, such as crude oil and semiconductor chips, further indicates a diversified and robust logistics ecosystem. However, the ripple effects of tariff uncertainties remain, especially in light of the US potentially imposing new tariffs. The slowdown in cargo throughput and shifting global trade patterns suggest that China's trade landscape is evolving, with the longer-term impact of tariff policies still unfolding.

While May and June marked a high point for China’s trade, driven by a push to get ahead of US tariffs under US President Donald Trump’s trade war, analysts suggest that this burst of activity may now be winding down.

China’s trade faces first setback since record-breaking highs

India has overtaken China for the first time to become the largest source of smartphones sold in the US, according to new data from Canalys. In the second quarter of 2025, smartphones assembled in India accounted for 44 per cent of US imports, a dramatic increase from just 13 per cent in the same period the previous year. This milestone highlights the significant shift in global manufacturing supply chains, primarily driven by Apple’s accelerated production ramp-up in India, as the company seeks to mitigate the risks of escalating trade tensions and tariffs between the US and China.This marks a stark decline for China, which saw its share of US smartphone exports plummet to just 25 per cent in Q2 2025, down from more than 60 per cent a year ago. And a 240 per cent year-on-year increase in Indian shipments signals a significant change in the global tech landscape as smartphone makers move their production outside of China in response to heightened geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty.<h2>Apple leads the shift with increased production in India</h2>Apple has played a pivotal role in this shift, increasingly relying on India for iPhone production. The company’s move to ramp up manufacturing in India is part of its broader “China Plus One” strategy, which seeks to reduce dependence on China amid growing tariffs and geopolitical tensions. According to Canalys, Apple has been accelerating its plans to produce a substantial portion of its iPhones in India, especially for the US market. In Q2 2025, Apple’s increased output from India included base iPhone models, which now account for a significant share of US shipments.“India became the leading manufacturing hub for smartphones sold in the US for the very first time in Q2 2025, largely driven by Apple’s accelerated supply chain shift to India amid an uncertain trade landscape between the US and China,” said Sanyam Chaurasia, Principal Analyst at Canalys.Apple’s decision to move more production to India has been fuelled by the ongoing tariff concerns and the uncertainty surrounding US-China relations. Despite assembling some models, like the iPhone 16 Pro, in India, the company still relies on its Chinese facilities to meet large-scale demand for high-end models in the US. However, Apple’s rapid increase in exports from India—accounting for nearly 70 per cent of India’s smartphone exports in Q1 FY26 (April–June 2025), according to a&nbsp;Moneycontrol&nbsp;report—is setting the stage for India to become a major global manufacturing hub for premium smartphones in the future.<h2>Samsung and Motorola follow suit</h2>While Apple has taken the lead in shifting its production to India, other global smartphone vendors, including Samsung and Motorola, are also beginning to move some of their US-bound production to the country. Samsung’s smartphone exports to the US from India saw a 38 per cent increase during the April to June period in 2025, largely driven by its Galaxy A-series devices. Motorola, like Apple, has a core manufacturing base in China but has started shifting some of its production to India as well. However, compared to Apple, their shifts remain modest in scale.Despite these shifts, overall smartphone shipments to the US grew by only 1 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2025, suggesting that the market is not growing as quickly as manufacturers had hoped. Canalys analyst Runar Bjorhovde explained, “Vendors continue to frontload devices and maintain high inventory levels to best cope with the risk of tariffs coming into play later in the year. Yet, the market only grew 1 per cent, indicating tepid demand in an increasingly pressured economic environment.”<h2>India solidifies its position as a key smartphone export hub</h2>India’s rise as a critical hub for smartphone manufacturing has been solidified by its increasing role in the global supply chain. In Q2 2025, India’s total smartphone exports reached $7 billion, a 40 per cent increase from the previous year, with Apple contributing significantly to the surge. With major players like Foxconn and Tata Electronics ramping up their production capacity in India, the country is poised to become an even more dominant player in the smartphone manufacturing space in the coming years.As the US market faces potential tariff hurdles and a slowing economy, the shift to India highlights the broader changes taking place in the global tech manufacturing ecosystem. While the future of tariffs remains uncertain, India’s rise as a key supplier to the US underscores its growing importance in the global smartphone supply chain, with the potential for continued expansion and investment from both local and international players.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

China saw its share of US smartphone exports plummet to just 25 per cent in Q2 2025, down from more than 60 per cent a year ago, while Indian shipments witnessed a 240 per cent year-on-year increase, driven by Apple's production in India.

India has overtaken China for the first time to become the largest source of smartphones sold in the US, according to new data from Canalys. In the second quarter of 2025, smartphones assembled in India accounted for 44 per cent of US imports, a dramatic increase from just 13 per cent in the same period the previous year. This milestone highlights the significant shift in global manufacturing supply chains, primarily driven by Apple’s accelerated production ramp-up in India, as the company seeks to mitigate the risks of escalating trade tensions and tariffs between the US and China. This marks a stark decline for China, which saw its share of US smartphone exports plummet to just 25 per cent in Q2 2025, down from more than 60 per cent a year ago. And a 240 per cent year-on-year increase in Indian shipments signals a significant change in the global tech landscape as smartphone makers move their production outside of China in response to heightened geopolitical risks and trade uncertainty. Apple leads the shift with increased production in India Apple has played a pivotal role in this shift, increasingly relying on India for iPhone production. The company’s move to ramp up manufacturing in India is part of its broader “China Plus One” strategy, which seeks to reduce dependence on China amid growing tariffs and geopolitical tensions. According to Canalys, Apple has been accelerating its plans to produce a substantial portion of its iPhones in India, especially for the US market. In Q2 2025, Apple’s increased output from India included base iPhone models, which now account for a significant share of US shipments. “India became the leading manufacturing hub for smartphones sold in the US for the very first time in Q2 2025, largely driven by Apple’s accelerated supply chain shift to India amid an uncertain trade landscape between the US and China,” said Sanyam Chaurasia, Principal Analyst at Canalys. Apple’s decision to move more production to India has been fuelled by the ongoing tariff concerns and the uncertainty surrounding US-China relations. Despite assembling some models, like the iPhone 16 Pro, in India, the company still relies on its Chinese facilities to meet large-scale demand for high-end models in the US. However, Apple’s rapid increase in exports from India—accounting for nearly 70 per cent of India’s smartphone exports in Q1 FY26 (April–June 2025), according to a Moneycontrol report—is setting the stage for India to become a major global manufacturing hub for premium smartphones in the future. Samsung and Motorola follow suit While Apple has taken the lead in shifting its production to India, other global smartphone vendors, including Samsung and Motorola, are also beginning to move some of their US-bound production to the country. Samsung’s smartphone exports to the US from India saw a 38 per cent increase during the April to June period in 2025, largely driven by its Galaxy A-series devices. Motorola, like Apple, has a core manufacturing base in China but has started shifting some of its production to India as well. However, compared to Apple, their shifts remain modest in scale. Despite these shifts, overall smartphone shipments to the US grew by only 1 per cent year-on-year in Q2 2025, suggesting that the market is not growing as quickly as manufacturers had hoped. Canalys analyst Runar Bjorhovde explained, “Vendors continue to frontload devices and maintain high inventory levels to best cope with the risk of tariffs coming into play later in the year. Yet, the market only grew 1 per cent, indicating tepid demand in an increasingly pressured economic environment.” India solidifies its position as a key smartphone export hub India’s rise as a critical hub for smartphone manufacturing has been solidified by its increasing role in the global supply chain. In Q2 2025, India’s total smartphone exports reached $7 billion, a 40 per cent increase from the previous year, with Apple contributing significantly to the surge. With major players like Foxconn and Tata Electronics ramping up their production capacity in India, the country is poised to become an even more dominant player in the smartphone manufacturing space in the coming years. As the US market faces potential tariff hurdles and a slowing economy, the shift to India highlights the broader changes taking place in the global tech manufacturing ecosystem. While the future of tariffs remains uncertain, India’s rise as a key supplier to the US underscores its growing importance in the global smartphone supply chain, with the potential for continued expansion and investment from both local and international players. (With inputs from agencies)

China saw its share of US smartphone exports plummet to just 25 per cent in Q2 2025, down from more than 60 per cent a year ago, while Indian shipments witnessed a 240 per cent year-on-year increase, driven by Apple's production in India.

India overtakes China as top supplier of smartphones to the US amid shifting global supply chain

Big Tech companies like Microsoft and Indian software giants like TCS are slashing jobs and laying off their workforce. This should be a moment of reality check for Indian parents and students, who collectively spend trillions of rupees every year for software engineering courses in India or abroad, and allied entrance coachings, every year. There's clearly a disconnect between education investment and job realities in India in the IT field, which for nearly three decades was considered a sureshot ticket to job security with campus placements.<h2>Are you spending millions on your child's software degree? AI will disrupt your dreams</h2>Even as Indian parents continue to spend millions of rupees on IT education at home and abroad, the country's $283 billion software industry is undergoing a painful transformation of job cuts, often attributed to automation by Artificial Intelligence (AI), and 'skill gaps'. This month, India’s largest IT firm Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) announced a cut of 12,000 jobs, which is 2 per cent of its workforce, at middle and senior levels, to become 'future ready' by investing heavily in AI."A number of reskilling and redeployment initiatives have been underway, said TCS, warning that it would be 'releasing associates from the organisation whose deployment may not be feasible'.The shift is a result of AI automation of tens of thousands of repetitive IT tasks, for which global firms traditionally depended on the relatively cheap skilled labour from India. Now, clients of these IT firms who used to outsource such skills to India, are seeking innovation and not cost-cutting, because AI will take care of mundane and repetitive tasks.<h2>AI-related roles are not growing fast enough</h2>The Indian parents and aspiring IT students might still try to rationalise by thinking that an education in AI would offset the job losses in traditional IT. But the truth is, at least for some years now, roles in AI, cloud and cyberseucirty are not growing fast enough.Then there is the problem of how fast IT institutions are changing their curriculum to match the fast-changing adoption of AI. There are just not enough AI-trained instructors in the colleges and institutes. According to industry monitor Nasscom, India faces a deep skills mismatch: It will need 1 million AI professionals by next year, but less than 20 per cent of the current IT workforce is trained in these areas, it said.<h2>The impact is already visible: From north to south India, IT Jobs are being slashed</h2>A compilation of recent data shows that at least 50,000 IT jobs were lost in 2023 across Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Pune, with the slide continuing into 2025. There is a 72 per cent drop in net new hires at top IT firms in India.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/videos/indias-tcs-outlook-bleaker-for-current-quarter-blames-us-banking-crisis-world-business-watch-581966/embed">https://www.wionews.com/videos/indias-tcs-outlook-bleaker-for-current-quarter-blames-us-banking-crisis-world-business-watch-581966/embed</a><h2>Campus placements are drying up amid India's IT job slowdown</h2>Once a sector known for campus placements, where companies lap up good talent for high salaries straight after college, software engineering is not a green pasture anymore when it comes to hiring. On average, annual fresh graduate hiring has fallen from 600,000 to just 150,000, according to recent estimates.“20-25 per cent of fresh graduates will have no jobs,” a BBC report on the slump quoted Neeti Sharma, the CEO of HR firm TeamLease Digital, as saying.For many parents who took education loans to send their wards to good IT courses at home or abroad, this could have a massive impact. The steady paychecks from IT jobs are now on shaky ground.<h2>What Indian parents are spending on IT education</h2>While clear data is not available, a gleaning of available information reveals that technical degrees like BTech in Computer Science at private colleges cost a minimum of ₹100,000 per year, or up to ₹400,000 over four years. Remember this is a low-side estimate, as costs vary in different institutes, and this amount is only the tuition fee. Some 1.5 million engineering students are enrolled annually, many in software engineering. Domestically, the estimated spending in IT education by Indian parents likely ranges from ₹60,000 crore to 90,000 crore annually. Then there is entrance coaching fees for exams like JEE or GATE, which could go up to 200,000 rupees per year per student.<h2>Spending on IT education went through roof, crossing one trillion rupees</h2>Indian students continue to go abroad for higher education, many of them in IT or allied courses. A specific number on how many go for IT education alone is difficult to gather, but it would be safe to assume that the majority of them do. Overall, 770,000 Indian students studied abroad in 2019, and the number was projected to hit 1.8 million in 2024. By that year, Indian families likely spent $75–85 billion annually on international education, with IT and computer science among the most popular fields. Putting this data together, it would be safe to estimate that Indian parents cumulatively spend around ₹60,000–1,00,000 crore (yes, one trillion rupees) on overseas IT education.The biggest contributors to this outflow are families from higher-income states like Punjab, Maharashtra, and Andhra Pradesh.Total annual estimate of IT education - combiing domestic, overseas, coaching and upskilling - is between ₹1.3 trillion to 2.1 trillion rupees.<h2>Indian IT firings: A wake-up call for parents and students</h2>The outcomes no longer match the investment on education, especially in the IT sector.Many private colleges charge high fees, but their graduates face job uncertainty due to limited AI skills, a decline in legacy IT roles, and a shift towards leaner, AI-first IT teams both in India and abroad.The quality of IT education in many institutions is also not aligned with current industry needs. This leads many IT graduates to spend even more money on certifications post-graduation, and many years into their jobs.<h2>Reassess your return on investment before opting for IT education</h2>Parents considering heavy investments in IT education, whether for domestic degrees, foreign universities, or coaching, must factor in the shifting job landscape, where&nbsp; AI is redefining demand. Jobs that were once seen as 'stable' are fast drying up now. India's spending boom, facilitated by IT jobs since the 1990s, may be on its way out, unless both the government and the education system adapt fast to the technologies of the future, mainly driven by AI. An overhaul of the curriculum, upskilling of teachers, and a change in course offerings to match present-day industry needs are the order of the day. Till that happens, considering software engineering education as a 'safe bet' might prove to be risky. &nbsp;

There's clearly a disconnect between education investment and job realities in India in the IT field, which for nearly three decades was considered a sureshot ticket to job security with campus placements. READ this analysis so that you can make informed decisions

Big Tech companies like Microsoft and Indian software giants like TCS are slashing jobs and laying off their workforce. This should be a moment of reality check for Indian parents and students, who collectively spend trillions of rupees every year for software engineering courses in India or abroad, and allied entrance coachings, every year. There's clearly a disconnect between education investment and job realities in India in the IT field, which for nearly three decades was considered a sureshot ticket to job security with campus placements. Are you spending millions on your child's software degree? AI will disrupt your dreams Even as Indian parents continue to spend millions of rupees on IT education at home and abroad, the country's $283 billion software industry is undergoing a painful transformation of job cuts, often attributed to automation by Artificial Intelligence (AI), and 'skill gaps'. This month, India’s largest IT firm Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) announced a cut of 12,000 jobs, which is 2 per cent of its workforce, at middle and senior levels, to become 'future ready' by investing heavily in AI. "A number of reskilling and redeployment initiatives have been underway, said TCS, warning that it would be 'releasing associates from the organisation whose deployment may not be feasible'. The shift is a result of AI automation of tens of thousands of repetitive IT tasks, for which global firms traditionally depended on the relatively cheap skilled labour from India. Now, clients of these IT firms who used to outsource such skills to India, are seeking innovation and not cost-cutting, because AI will take care of mundane and repetitive tasks. AI-related roles are not growing fast enough The Indian parents and aspiring IT students might still try to rationalise by thinking that an education in AI would offset the job losses in traditional IT. But the truth is, at least for some years now, roles in AI, cloud and cyberseucirty are not growing fast enough. Then there is the problem of how fast IT institutions are changing their curriculum to match the fast-changing adoption of AI. There are just not enough AI-trained instructors in the colleges and institutes. According to industry monitor Nasscom, India faces a deep skills mismatch: It will need 1 million AI professionals by next year, but less than 20 per cent of the current IT workforce is trained in these areas, it said. The impact is already visible: From north to south India, IT Jobs are being slashed A compilation of recent data shows that at least 50,000 IT jobs were lost in 2023 across Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Pune, with the slide continuing into 2025. There is a 72 per cent drop in net new hires at top IT firms in India.

There's clearly a disconnect between education investment and job realities in India in the IT field, which for nearly three decades was considered a sureshot ticket to job security with campus placements. READ this analysis so that you can make informed decisions

Indian parents, READ THIS NOW if you spend millions of rupees on your child's software engineering degree

A newly announced trade deal between the European Union (EU) and the United States could add substantial costs to the pharmaceutical sector, with estimates suggesting an additional $13 billion to $19 billion in expenses for drugmakers. The deal, which includes a 15 per cent tariff on most EU goods, does not yet provide clarity on how it will affect pharmaceuticals. Although medicines were excluded from the deal on July 27, they remain subject to the outcome of a US national security investigation, which could potentially impose tariffs of up to 15 per cent.<h2>Tariff uncertainty clouds the future for pharmaceuticals</h2>Pharmaceuticals are the EU’s largest export to the US by value, accounting for about 60 per cent of all EU pharmaceutical imports. Historically, these products have been exempt from tariffs, but the new trade agreement could change that. The investigation into the pharmaceutical sector, initiated by the Trump administration, has created uncertainty for the industry. US President Donald Trump recently hinted that tariffs could rise as high as 200 per cent on pharmaceuticals. However, some analysts do not expect additional tariffs beyond the 15 per cent already proposed, while others caution that the situation is still fluid.Despite the official announcement of the new EU-US deal on July 27, the pharmaceutical sector was not included in the blanket tariff, as the US could not commit to any decisions regarding tariffs until the national security review is completed. While the EU has expressed confidence that any new tariffs will be capped at 15 per cent, the lack of clarity has left pharmaceutical companies facing potential financial strain.<h2>Impact on EU drugmakers and US consumers</h2>Industry analysts have warned that the added costs from tariffs could eventually trickle down to US consumers, raising prices on imported drugs unless companies take mitigation steps. UBS analysts noted that the EU could push for protective measures for pharmaceutical exports as part of ongoing negotiations. Major pharmaceutical firms like Sanofi and Roche are already taking preemptive actions to minimise disruptions, with Roche increasing US inventories and Sanofi selling a manufacturing facility in New Jersey to avoid supply chain bottlenecks.In the short term, however, no tariffs are expected to be imposed on pharmaceuticals immediately. US officials clarified that there will be no changes to the zero per cent tariff rate on pharmaceutical products for now, maintaining consistency with existing trade frameworks and WTO commitments. As the situation evolves, the pharmaceutical industry remains on edge, with questions surrounding tariffs still lingering in the wake of the EU-US trade deal.

The US-EU deal, which includes a 15 per cent tariff on most EU goods, does not yet provide clarity on how it will affect pharmaceuticals. Although medicines were excluded from the deal, they remain subject to the outcome of a US national security investigation.

A newly announced trade deal between the European Union (EU) and the United States could add substantial costs to the pharmaceutical sector, with estimates suggesting an additional $13 billion to $19 billion in expenses for drugmakers. The deal, which includes a 15 per cent tariff on most EU goods, does not yet provide clarity on how it will affect pharmaceuticals. Although medicines were excluded from the deal on July 27, they remain subject to the outcome of a US national security investigation, which could potentially impose tariffs of up to 15 per cent. Tariff uncertainty clouds the future for pharmaceuticals Pharmaceuticals are the EU’s largest export to the US by value, accounting for about 60 per cent of all EU pharmaceutical imports. Historically, these products have been exempt from tariffs, but the new trade agreement could change that. The investigation into the pharmaceutical sector, initiated by the Trump administration, has created uncertainty for the industry. US President Donald Trump recently hinted that tariffs could rise as high as 200 per cent on pharmaceuticals. However, some analysts do not expect additional tariffs beyond the 15 per cent already proposed, while others caution that the situation is still fluid. Despite the official announcement of the new EU-US deal on July 27, the pharmaceutical sector was not included in the blanket tariff, as the US could not commit to any decisions regarding tariffs until the national security review is completed. While the EU has expressed confidence that any new tariffs will be capped at 15 per cent, the lack of clarity has left pharmaceutical companies facing potential financial strain. Impact on EU drugmakers and US consumers Industry analysts have warned that the added costs from tariffs could eventually trickle down to US consumers, raising prices on imported drugs unless companies take mitigation steps. UBS analysts noted that the EU could push for protective measures for pharmaceutical exports as part of ongoing negotiations. Major pharmaceutical firms like Sanofi and Roche are already taking preemptive actions to minimise disruptions, with Roche increasing US inventories and Sanofi selling a manufacturing facility in New Jersey to avoid supply chain bottlenecks. In the short term, however, no tariffs are expected to be imposed on pharmaceuticals immediately. US officials clarified that there will be no changes to the zero per cent tariff rate on pharmaceutical products for now, maintaining consistency with existing trade frameworks and WTO commitments. As the situation evolves, the pharmaceutical industry remains on edge, with questions surrounding tariffs still lingering in the wake of the EU-US trade deal.

The US-EU deal, which includes a 15 per cent tariff on most EU goods, does not yet provide clarity on how it will affect pharmaceuticals. Although medicines were excluded from the deal, they remain subject to the outcome of a US national security investigation.

EU-US trade deal sparks uncertainty over pharmaceutical tariffs

US stock markets ended mixed on July 28, with the S&amp;P 500 edging higher to hit its sixth consecutive record close, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped slightly. The Nasdaq Composite also closed at a record, despite choppy trading, as investors focused on multiple market catalysts, including a US-EU trade agreement, upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions, and a busy earnings season. The S&amp;P 500 rose 1.13 points, or 0.02 per cent, to close at 6,389.77. The Nasdaq gained 70.27 points, or 0.33 per cent, settling at 21,178.58. However, the Dow Jones fell 64.36 points, or 0.14 per cent, finishing at 44,837.56. The market’s performance reflected mixed reactions to the weekend’s US-European Union trade deal and cautious optimism for the upcoming economic data.<h2>Muted market reaction to US-EU trade pact</h2>On July 27, US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a trade framework that slashes EU import tariffs to 15-20 per cent, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30 per cent rate. While this deal averted the worst-case scenario for US-EU relations, the market’s response was tepid, with investors seeing the deal as less impactful than anticipated.Although the deal may provide some relief by easing tariff uncertainty, there is scepticism about its long-term implications. French officials have criticised the agreement as a “submission,” pointing out that it doesn’t go far enough in addressing trade imbalances. Scott Welch, chief investment officer at Certuity, noted that while the trade deal was better than the alternative, it’s still too early to assess its full effects on the global economy.&nbsp;<h2>Earnings season and Fed decision in focus</h2>With the market digesting the trade agreement, investors are now turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and earnings reports from major companies. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged during its two-day meeting, which concludes July 30. Traders will be looking for any hints about potential rate cuts in September.Corporate earnings are also front and centre this week, with over 150 S&amp;P 500 companies set to report quarterly results. Tech giants Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are all scheduled to release earnings, and their performance could influence market sentiment. A strong showing from these companies could provide much-needed momentum, especially after a mixed reaction to the US-EU trade deal.In addition to the Fed’s decision and earnings, key economic data this week includes the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation report and the jobs report. Economists expect the economy to have added 102,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June. This will give investors further insight into the state of the labour market and the potential impact of tariffs on consumer prices. With tariff uncertainty easing somewhat and corporate earnings potentially outperforming expectations, the market is set for another week of volatility as traders weigh the long-term effects of trade deals and economic policy decisions.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

The US market’s performance reflected mixed reactions to the weekend’s US-EU trade deal and cautious optimism for the upcoming economic data. S&P 500 edging higher to hit its sixth consecutive record close, Nasdaq also closed at a record, while the Dow Jones slipped slightly.

US stock markets ended mixed on July 28, with the S&P 500 edging higher to hit its sixth consecutive record close, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped slightly. The Nasdaq Composite also closed at a record, despite choppy trading, as investors focused on multiple market catalysts, including a US-EU trade agreement, upcoming Federal Reserve policy decisions, and a busy earnings season. The S&P 500 rose 1.13 points, or 0.02 per cent, to close at 6,389.77. The Nasdaq gained 70.27 points, or 0.33 per cent, settling at 21,178.58. However, the Dow Jones fell 64.36 points, or 0.14 per cent, finishing at 44,837.56. The market’s performance reflected mixed reactions to the weekend’s US-European Union trade deal and cautious optimism for the upcoming economic data. Muted market reaction to US-EU trade pact On July 27, US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled a trade framework that slashes EU import tariffs to 15-20 per cent, significantly lower than the previously threatened 30 per cent rate. While this deal averted the worst-case scenario for US-EU relations, the market’s response was tepid, with investors seeing the deal as less impactful than anticipated. Although the deal may provide some relief by easing tariff uncertainty, there is scepticism about its long-term implications. French officials have criticised the agreement as a “submission,” pointing out that it doesn’t go far enough in addressing trade imbalances. Scott Welch, chief investment officer at Certuity, noted that while the trade deal was better than the alternative, it’s still too early to assess its full effects on the global economy. Earnings season and Fed decision in focus With the market digesting the trade agreement, investors are now turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and earnings reports from major companies. The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged during its two-day meeting, which concludes July 30. Traders will be looking for any hints about potential rate cuts in September. Corporate earnings are also front and centre this week, with over 150 S&P 500 companies set to report quarterly results. Tech giants Meta Platforms, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are all scheduled to release earnings, and their performance could influence market sentiment. A strong showing from these companies could provide much-needed momentum, especially after a mixed reaction to the US-EU trade deal. In addition to the Fed’s decision and earnings, key economic data this week includes the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation report and the jobs report. Economists expect the economy to have added 102,000 jobs in July, down from 147,000 in June. This will give investors further insight into the state of the labour market and the potential impact of tariffs on consumer prices. With tariff uncertainty easing somewhat and corporate earnings potentially outperforming expectations, the market is set for another week of volatility as traders weigh the long-term effects of trade deals and economic policy decisions. (With inputs from agencies)

The US market’s performance reflected mixed reactions to the weekend’s US-EU trade deal and cautious optimism for the upcoming economic data. S&amp;P 500 edging higher to hit its sixth consecutive record close, Nasdaq also closed at a record, while the Dow Jones slipped slightly.

US markets edge higher amid EU trade deal, Fed meeting and earnings season

Top economic officials from the United States and China convened in Stockholm on July 28 for a fresh round of trade talks, aimed at extending a 90-day truce between the world’s two largest economies. With an August 12 deadline fast approaching, both countries are negotiating to avoid a return to the high tariffs that have characterised the ongoing trade war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led the US delegation, while Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng represented Beijing in what was a more than five-hour round of discussions at Sweden’s prime minister's office.The meetings come after several months of escalating trade tensions, with both sides having raised tariffs on each other's goods to over 100 per cent earlier this year. The current temporary tariff pause, agreed to in May, was meant to allow time for further negotiations. Both sides hope to avoid a scenario in which tariffs snap back to even higher levels, potentially triggering significant disruptions to global supply chains.<h2>Truce expected to be extended amid complex negotiations</h2>Reports suggest that both the US and China are leaning toward a 90-day extension of the existing truce, which would push the deadline for a final agreement into mid-November. This extension would buy more time for detailed negotiations, including addressing key issues such as China’s restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, technology exports, and broader trade imbalances.“Right now, what we’re aiming for is continued monitoring and ensuring that the terms we’ve agreed to thus far are being followed,” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC. He stressed that the discussions would focus on implementing agreements made earlier this year, such as ensuring the continued flow of critical minerals between the two nations. Negotiators from both sides were seen exiting the Stockholm talks without offering any immediate comments, with a second round of discussions set to continue on July 29.China’s economic leverage has been increasing in recent months, with its economy showing growth of 5.3 per cent in the first half of 2025. Additionally, Beijing’s control over the global supply of rare earth minerals, which are essential for everything from military equipment to consumer electronics, gives it significant bargaining power. In April, China imposed new export restrictions on these crucial materials, heightening tensions and prompting Washington to soften its stance on other trade matters.<h2>US-China talks threatened by geopolitical concerns and pressure</h2>While economic negotiations are ongoing, the trade talks come amid growing geopolitical tensions. US senators from both major political parties are preparing to introduce bills this week that target China over its treatment of minority groups, human rights abuses, and its stance on Taiwan. These bills could complicate the negotiations, as the Trump administration moves to take a hard stance on China’s behaviour in areas outside of trade.Taiwan’s potential role in the talks is another source of friction. Reports indicated that Taiwan President Lai Ching-te would delay a visit to the US that could have further infuriated Beijing, which considers Taiwan a breakaway province. Any support for Taiwan from the US would likely be viewed as a significant diplomatic challenge for Beijing and could further complicate the trade discussions.Despite these external pressures, US officials, including Treasury Secretary Bessent, have expressed optimism about the future of the trade talks. “Trade is at a good place with China,” Bessent said, adding that negotiations were “constructive” and focused on achieving balanced trade and economic stability. Analysts, however, note that progress on a deal will likely require more time, with both countries continuing to address a range of complex issues, including trade imbalances, intellectual property concerns, and the role of state-owned enterprises in China’s economy.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

The Stockholm talks come after months of escalating trade tensions, with the US and China raising tariffs on each other's goods to over 100 per cent earlier this year. Now, both sides hope to avoid a scenario in which tariffs snap back to even higher levels, disrupting global supply chains.

Top economic officials from the United States and China convened in Stockholm on July 28 for a fresh round of trade talks, aimed at extending a 90-day truce between the world’s two largest economies. With an August 12 deadline fast approaching, both countries are negotiating to avoid a return to the high tariffs that have characterised the ongoing trade war. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent led the US delegation, while Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng represented Beijing in what was a more than five-hour round of discussions at Sweden’s prime minister's office. The meetings come after several months of escalating trade tensions, with both sides having raised tariffs on each other's goods to over 100 per cent earlier this year. The current temporary tariff pause, agreed to in May, was meant to allow time for further negotiations. Both sides hope to avoid a scenario in which tariffs snap back to even higher levels, potentially triggering significant disruptions to global supply chains. Truce expected to be extended amid complex negotiations Reports suggest that both the US and China are leaning toward a 90-day extension of the existing truce, which would push the deadline for a final agreement into mid-November. This extension would buy more time for detailed negotiations, including addressing key issues such as China’s restrictions on rare earth mineral exports, technology exports, and broader trade imbalances. “Right now, what we’re aiming for is continued monitoring and ensuring that the terms we’ve agreed to thus far are being followed,” US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told CNBC. He stressed that the discussions would focus on implementing agreements made earlier this year, such as ensuring the continued flow of critical minerals between the two nations. Negotiators from both sides were seen exiting the Stockholm talks without offering any immediate comments, with a second round of discussions set to continue on July 29. China’s economic leverage has been increasing in recent months, with its economy showing growth of 5.3 per cent in the first half of 2025. Additionally, Beijing’s control over the global supply of rare earth minerals, which are essential for everything from military equipment to consumer electronics, gives it significant bargaining power. In April, China imposed new export restrictions on these crucial materials, heightening tensions and prompting Washington to soften its stance on other trade matters. US-China talks threatened by geopolitical concerns and pressure While economic negotiations are ongoing, the trade talks come amid growing geopolitical tensions. US senators from both major political parties are preparing to introduce bills this week that target China over its treatment of minority groups, human rights abuses, and its stance on Taiwan. These bills could complicate the negotiations, as the Trump administration moves to take a hard stance on China’s behaviour in areas outside of trade. Taiwan’s potential role in the talks is another source of friction. Reports indicated that Taiwan President Lai Ching-te would delay a visit to the US that could have further infuriated Beijing, which considers Taiwan a breakaway province. Any support for Taiwan from the US would likely be viewed as a significant diplomatic challenge for Beijing and could further complicate the trade discussions. Despite these external pressures, US officials, including Treasury Secretary Bessent, have expressed optimism about the future of the trade talks. “Trade is at a good place with China,” Bessent said, adding that negotiations were “constructive” and focused on achieving balanced trade and economic stability. Analysts, however, note that progress on a deal will likely require more time, with both countries continuing to address a range of complex issues, including trade imbalances, intellectual property concerns, and the role of state-owned enterprises in China’s economy. (With inputs from agencies)

The Stockholm talks come after months of escalating trade tensions, with the US and China raising tariffs on each other's goods to over 100 per cent earlier this year. Now, both sides hope to avoid a scenario in which tariffs snap back to even higher levels, disrupting global supply chains.

US and China trade talks resume in Stockholm as deadline approaches