Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory crashes today: Time of entry and where debris could fall

NASA’s Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory is expected to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere on Wednesday (Nov 4) after remaining in orbit for 22 years. The LINK mission to save it earlier this year failed, after which the space agency declared that the telescope will crash in the coming days. The 1,500-kilogram observatory was launched in 2004 and observed the brightest explosions in the universe. But solar storms weakened its orbit, causing a drag on it. NASA tried saving it, but the robotic arms couldn't catch up to Swift as it fell further.

The US Space Force has predicted that Swift will re-enter the atmosphere at approximately 3:30 am EST (2 pm IST), with a margin of 11 hours. It expects most of the spacecraft to burn up in the atmosphere, but some pieces might survive and fall in certain areas on the ground.

Also Read: Swift telescope to crash on Earth this month - What to expect, and does it pose a danger?

Where can Swift pieces fall?

According to estimates, the fragments from Swift will fall somewhere between 20.6 degrees south latitude and 20.6 degrees north latitude. This band covers a vast amount of open ocean, deserts, rainforests, as well as populated areas.

This comprises parts of Mexico, Caribbean islands and parts of Central America, northern Brazil, Colombia, Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana in South America, North, West, and Central Africa, Oman, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, southern India, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines, and vast stretches of the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

NASA and Space Force have said that the overall risk of any damage on Earth to human life and property is only about 1 in 2,100.

What went wrong with Swift?

Swift has studied gamma-ray bursts, the most powerful explosions in the universe, since being launched in 2004. But in the past few years, its orbit started decaying. This primarily happened because of the intense solar activity. In the last two years, it dropped from 600 km above Earth's surface to around 360 km.

NASA enrolled Katalyst Space to try and save the spacecraft. In eight months, the company "designed, built, tested, and integrated a robotic spacecraft". It was launched on July 3 with the intent to carry it upwards and place Swift in a stable orbit. However, the LINK mission went into an uncontrollable spin a few weeks later. It was even captured on camera near Swift at one point, but failed to achieve its mission.