Opinion: Bollywood drama in Lok Sabha hides serious undercurrents ahead of 2019

The theatrical no-trust vote did not throw up any surprise besides Congress President Rahul Gandhi hugging an awkward Prime Minister inside the Lok Sabha. As was expected, the NDA won the vote by a difference of nearly 200 seats. Shiva Sena’s abstention from the vote was the only other surprise.

On a lighter note, Rahul’s hug and the Prime Minister’s (no less theatrical) rebuttal speech have once again shown that we are a country run by the Bombay film industry.

However, if Rahul’s unsolicited embrace, and his thrust on love and Gandhian non-violence made you squirm then he is already winning the war of perception as it can be argued that the 47-year-old Gandhi scion has never been able to dominate the news in such a comprehensive way. Reams of newspaper print and scores of online articles continue to analyse the effect of his ‘fiery’ and ‘powerful’ speech.

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It also tells us that curiouser times are ahead of us in the run-up to the 2019 general elections. The BJP, confident of its strength under the joint helmsmanship of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and its President Amit Shah is set on going solo in states like Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh and perhaps Telangana. It is important to remember that in these states the BJP has seldom fought alone.

On the other hand, Congress, which has just held its first CWC meet after Rahul became party president, has all but thrown its doors open to prospective allies. In fact, the grand old party is seriously considering allying with the BSP in more than one state. The Congress has never done so before. But, with just 44 MPs and government in one and a half states (Puducherry(UT), Punjab and Karnataka), Congress needs allies more than ever before.

And, even though it is in its strongest ever position, the BJP too realises it needs alliances if it wants to come even closer to the number of seats it won in 2014. After a string of defeats in bypolls, the party’s tally has come down to 274 from the 282 it got in 2014. After this no-trust vote it should be clear to all that for the BJP allies are not likely to come by cheap or easy.

Test of Unity ahead of 2019

In the three states that go to elections in the next six months or so, BJP faces 15-year anti-incumbency in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh. In Rajasthan, the party has all but given up on winning, and according to reports, is happy to let the incumbent Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje take the blame for an inevitable defeat.

The no-trust vote numbers: Opposition’s 126 versus Government’s 325 hide the shifting undercurrents in national politics. While the BJP has done well for itself, former and present allies like the TDP, Shiva Sena, and JD(S) have been voicing their discontent at government’s economic policies and the BJP’s religion-based politics. Besides these commanalities, each ally including the Shiromani Akali Dal, which has been so far unwavering in its support, has a unique grudge against the Modi-Shah led BJP.

TDP, which moved the no-confidence motion, was promised Special Status for Andhra Pradesh. When the special status didn’t come through, its leader Chandrababu Naidu dropped the pretense and joined hands at the national level with the opposition.

Shiva Sena, still in government both in the centre and in Maharashtra, is BJP’s oldest and most reliable ally. The parties are compared to congenital twins, but it seems the time has come for a surgical separation in the wake of Sena’s abstention from the trust-vote. Sena is fighting for its survival as the BJP consolidates its stranglehold over Maharashtra politics.

With 40 Lok Sabha seats, Bihar is one of India’s politically most important states. Here too, the JD(U)-BJP coalition is teetering under the effect of communal statements by BJP union Ministers like Giriraj Singh. Muslims make up 16.5 per centof the electorate in Bihar and their support is crucial for the JD(U) if it wants to remain relevant in national politics. JD(U) President and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has repeatedly made it clear to his BJP counterpart that communal politics won’t be allowed a free-run as long as he is in-charge of the state. However, it’s not easy for the BJP to reign in leaders like Giriraj Singh and its state president Nityanand Rai, who enjoy widespread support among its core upper-caste Hindu voters.

It remains to be seen if this tenuous alliance will hold till the 2019 elections.

In Uttar Pradesh where BJP won 71 out of 80 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP is likely to face its toughest battle. As bypoll losses in Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana show, if the SP-BSP alliance fights together, the BJP can be defeated quite easily. Although the BJP had contested the 2014 elections on its own besides the support of marginal players like Apna Dal, in 2019, with the likely coming together of SP, BSP, RLD and Congress, the BJP will struggle to retain even half of the seats it won last time.

The BJP-led NDA remains the strongest political formation ahead of 2019, but every chink in its armour adds strength to the Opposition, which has finally begun to find its feet.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)