Navratri 2026: 9 days, 9 forms of Goddess Durga and 9 colours- Check the complete list

Russian woman and Bihar boy's love story goes viral after she reaches India to marry him

Arijit Singh 9-city India stadium tour to start from January: Check venue and ticket prices

F1 set to return to Africa for first time since 1993 

'Don't ever mess with nature!': Trump’s tiger attack post triggers social media backlash as victim's family issues heartbreaking tribute

US judge blocks Trump administration sanctions on human rights groups supporting Gaza war crimes investigation

Trump's $100,000 H-1B fee: Why neither Republicans nor Democrats want to make it a 2026 US Midterm issue

Washington calls for 'de-escalation' as Ethiopia-Eritrea tensions fuel war fears

Which jobs are safest from humanoid robots?

US midterms: Trump rallies behind Husted as Brown mounts challenge in crucial Ohio race

‘Rise up, young patriots!’: American singer Mary Millben says US donors funding CJP, backs Modi govt

Nobel Peace Prize winner Navi Pillay calls on US to 'get back to' being defender of human rights

'People are angry. I understand that anger': Cornell President Michael Kotlikoff admits he failed to follow up on sexual assault report

Iranian woman, 23, handed death sentence for ‘blasphemy’ in social media post; appeals for help

'Turn approver, resign, we'll forgive you': Rahul Gandhi claims receiving messages from CEC Gyanesh Kumar

'Leakers should be shot': Trump rages over leak of US military plans to attack Iran, slams media

Somaliland celebrates after Trump calls it 'a totally different country', raise hopes of US recognition

Afghan FM Muttaqi to CdA Yatin Patel: We attach importance to relations with India

‘My president, I mean my husband’: Trump's new press secretary Katie Zacharia's first briefing goes off the rails in 14 minutes

Mars is not for man: Human heart is too weak to survive the trip, study shows

‘600,000 people without electricity’: Zelensky calls for ‘strong’ US sanctions on Russia, accuses Moscow of violating Trump’s energy ceasefire

Sheikh Hasina warns of 'deep sense of insecurity' among Bangladesh's minorities in Durga Puja message

FBI refutes media report claiming Kash Patel is in Russia for talks, says he is in Virginia

'Ouch!!! That must hurt': Kangana Ranaut hails Kamal Haasan's sharp reply to Elon Musk over Starlink row

Girl 'dead' for 8 hours wakes up at her own funeral, dad insists she wasn't breathing

Three Indians killed in suspected arson attack in Germany, Romanian resident arrested

Durga Puja 2026: Kolkata roads get a splash of colours

New OTT releases this week (October 12-18, 2026): Sacrifice, Koffee with Karan S9, Roadies Rebirth- 6 titles coming on Netflix, JioHotstar and more

Did the US withhold missile warnings? Ukraine questions Washington's 'bad weather' explanation after Russian strikes kill six, cut power to 600,000

US Singer Mary Millben alleges foreign funding for CJP, warns against anti-Modi forces: All you need to know

Global energy crisis hits Indian economy 

Durga Puja 2026: Power banks, water bottles and more, a foolproof guide to pandal hopping

Zelensky feels betrayed by Trump, urges Musk to restore Starlink in Ukraine; Musk responds

'Girls are uncomfortable': Salman Khan calls out paparazzi for bad angles, speaks on PR on Koffee With Karan

After flydubai co-pilot attack, Air France bans Pakistani, Muslim-majority crew on Israel flights

Chile’s central bank has held its key interest rate steady at 5 per cent, maintaining a cautious stance amid rising global instability, especially in the Middle East. But the central bank has also opened the door for future rate cuts, if external risks remain contained, as per Bloomberg.&nbsp;The decision, announced late Tuesday, was in line with market expectations. Sixteen of 21 analysts in a Bloomberg survey forecast the pause, while five expected a 25-basis-point cut. It marked the third straight meeting with rates on hold after aggressive monetary tightening earlier.<h2>Middle East conflict adds new risks</h2>In a statement quoted by Bloomberg, policymakers led by Governor Rosanna Costa said inflationary pressures had receded and price risks had eased. However, the board warned that the Israel–Iran conflict had added a “new source of uncertainty” that could spill over into Chile’s economy, especially through higher energy prices.&nbsp;“The escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East adds further uncertainty to this scenario,” the central bank said. “Its scope, development, and potential impacts on the global and local economies are unknown.”&nbsp;If the bank’s baseline forecast holds, the policy rate “will be approaching its range of neutral values,” estimated between 3.5 and 4.5 per cent, the statement added.<h2>Inflation slows, peso strengthens</h2>Chile’s annual inflation slowed to 4.4 per cent in May, its lowest level since November 2023, easing from highs seen in the aftermath of the pandemic, as reported by Bloomberg. A stronger peso, up more than 5 per cent year-to-date, has helped reduce import-led price pressures—vital for a country that relies heavily on imported fuel.&nbsp;Still, surging oil prices driven by tensions in the Middle East could derail this progress. “We anticipate the easing cycle to resume in July, but swings in the external backdrop could delay cuts until September,” said Andres Perez, Chief Economist for Latin America at Banco Itau, as quoted by Bloomberg.&nbsp;Perez expects the easing cycle to conclude at 4 per cent by early 2026.<h2>Growth recovering, but labour market lags</h2>Chile’s economy expanded 0.6 per cent month-on-month in April, triple the pace forecast by analysts, according to Bloomberg. Growth was driven by mining and services, while inflation cooled. However, job creation remained weak, the central bank noted.&nbsp;“There are factors that point to a greater boost in investment in the near future,” the board said, though the labour market “shows slow job creation.”The Chilean government expects GDP to grow around 2.5 per cent this year. The central bank’s updated economic forecasts are expected in its Quarterly Monetary Policy Report due Wednesday.<h2>What’s next?</h2>The tone of the latest statement suggests more cuts are on the horizon. “The Central Bank of Chile becomes more explicit regarding the future rate path, anticipating cuts in the coming quarters,” said Florencia Ricci, Head of Economy and Markets at Banchile Inversiones, as per Bloomberg.&nbsp;Ricci expects two rate cuts this year, in Q3 and Q4, taking the benchmark to 4.5 per cent by the end of 2025.&nbsp;Despite holding steady for now, Chile’s central bank has signalled its willingness to resume easing but only if the impact of external shocks like the Middle East conflict remains limited. For now, caution reigns as Santiago watches the global stage.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies) &nbsp;

While inflation has eased to 4.4% and the peso strengthened, the Israel-Iran conflict poses new economic risks, notably higher energy prices. Growth showed signs of recovery, but job creation remains weak. 

Chile’s central bank has held its key interest rate steady at 5 per cent, maintaining a cautious stance amid rising global instability, especially in the Middle East. But the central bank has also opened the door for future rate cuts, if external risks remain contained, as per Bloomberg. The decision, announced late Tuesday, was in line with market expectations. Sixteen of 21 analysts in a Bloomberg survey forecast the pause, while five expected a 25-basis-point cut. It marked the third straight meeting with rates on hold after aggressive monetary tightening earlier. Middle East conflict adds new risks In a statement quoted by Bloomberg, policymakers led by Governor Rosanna Costa said inflationary pressures had receded and price risks had eased. However, the board warned that the Israel–Iran conflict had added a “new source of uncertainty” that could spill over into Chile’s economy, especially through higher energy prices. “The escalation of the military conflict in the Middle East adds further uncertainty to this scenario,” the central bank said. “Its scope, development, and potential impacts on the global and local economies are unknown.” If the bank’s baseline forecast holds, the policy rate “will be approaching its range of neutral values,” estimated between 3.5 and 4.5 per cent, the statement added. Inflation slows, peso strengthens Chile’s annual inflation slowed to 4.4 per cent in May, its lowest level since November 2023, easing from highs seen in the aftermath of the pandemic, as reported by Bloomberg. A stronger peso, up more than 5 per cent year-to-date, has helped reduce import-led price pressures—vital for a country that relies heavily on imported fuel. Still, surging oil prices driven by tensions in the Middle East could derail this progress. “We anticipate the easing cycle to resume in July, but swings in the external backdrop could delay cuts until September,” said Andres Perez, Chief Economist for Latin America at Banco Itau, as quoted by Bloomberg. Perez expects the easing cycle to conclude at 4 per cent by early 2026. Growth recovering, but labour market lags Chile’s economy expanded 0.6 per cent month-on-month in April, triple the pace forecast by analysts, according to Bloomberg. Growth was driven by mining and services, while inflation cooled. However, job creation remained weak, the central bank noted. “There are factors that point to a greater boost in investment in the near future,” the board said, though the labour market “shows slow job creation.” The Chilean government expects GDP to grow around 2.5 per cent this year. The central bank’s updated economic forecasts are expected in its Quarterly Monetary Policy Report due Wednesday. What’s next? The tone of the latest statement suggests more cuts are on the horizon. “The Central Bank of Chile becomes more explicit regarding the future rate path, anticipating cuts in the coming quarters,” said Florencia Ricci, Head of Economy and Markets at Banchile Inversiones, as per Bloomberg. Ricci expects two rate cuts this year, in Q3 and Q4, taking the benchmark to 4.5 per cent by the end of 2025. Despite holding steady for now, Chile’s central bank has signalled its willingness to resume easing but only if the impact of external shocks like the Middle East conflict remains limited. For now, caution reigns as Santiago watches the global stage. (With inputs from the agencies)

Chile's central bank maintained its key interest rate at 5% due to rising global instability, particularly from the Middle East.&nbsp;

Chile holds rates at 5% amid Middle East conflict, hints at cuts ahead

Antimony, a critical mineral used in a wide range of industries from energy storage to defence, is facing a severe global supply shortage that is driving prices to unprecedented levels.&nbsp;The situation, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and environmental regulations, is starting to affect industries across the globe, from manufacturers of lead-acid batteries to military equipment producers. As the supply of this vital mineral tightens, companies are scrambling to secure a reliable source, while consumers face higher costs.<h2>China’s dominance and export restrictions</h2>China has long been the world’s largest producer of antimony, accounting for approximately 60 per cent of global output in 2024. However, the country’s output has been decreasing due to a combination of mine closures, stricter environmental regulations, and a political decision to restrict exports.&nbsp;In late 2023, China added antimony to its list of controlled minerals, requiring exporters to obtain licences for overseas shipments. Later, by December, the country imposed an outright ban on shipments of antimony to the United States, a retaliatory move following US restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports to China.These export controls have caused a dramatic reduction in China’s global antimony supply, which is now just one-third of what it was in 2022. With China tightening its grip on the mineral and production disruptions in other key regions, global shortages have deepened, driving up prices sharply.<h2>Price surge and economic impact</h2>The price of antimony has skyrocketed over the past year, more than quadrupling from $15,000 per tonne to over $60,000 by mid-2024. In some markets, prices have reached a record high of $51,500 per tonne in 2025, according to sources like Military Metals Corp.&nbsp;The surge represents the fastest price rise in over 40 years, with European prices jumping by 75 per cent in just a year. Experts predict that if the supply shortage persists, antimony prices could climb to as much as $100,000 per tonne.This surge has had immediate consequences for industries that rely on antimony, particularly battery manufacturers, electronics producers, and defence contractors. US-based companies, such as Clarios and Honda, which use antimony in their lead-acid batteries, are feeling the strain as procurement costs skyrocket.&nbsp;The Responsible Battery Coalition, which represents major battery manufacturers, has called the situation a “national emergency”, urging policymakers to treat the shortage as a national security concern.<h2>The ripple effect across sectors</h2>While the lead-acid battery market remains the largest consumer of antimony, its applications extend across many industries. The flame-retardant properties of antimony make it indispensable in products like fire-resistant clothing, construction materials, and electronics.&nbsp;The surge in demand for antimony as an essential element in energy storage solutions, including liquid-metal batteries and emerging sodium-ion technologies, is further contributing to the crisis.The defence sector also faces an urgent need for antimony, as it is used in more than 200 types of ammunition, including in military vehicles and infrared sensors. As the US Department of Defense intensifies its focus on securing critical materials, the shortage of antimony has taken on even greater significance.Despite the pressing demand, US manufacturers are finding it difficult to secure a stable supply. Nils Backeberg, director of consultancy Project Blue, told&nbsp;Reuters&nbsp;that companies in the West are increasingly turning to a “grey market”, where stockpiled materials are being sold at inflated prices. As a result, many manufacturers are passing on the higher procurement costs to their customers, causing an increase in product prices.<h2>A global supply chain crisis</h2>While antimony is still being mined in other countries, including Russia, Myanmar, and Tajikistan, political instability and environmental challenges are hindering production in these regions.&nbsp;Russia, which holds a significant share of the world’s antimony reserves, has seen its output drop due to Western sanctions and the economic fallout from the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s political unrest has led to production disruptions that further complicated supply chains.The United States, which has historically relied on imported antimony from China, is taking steps to reduce its dependence on international sources. Efforts are underway to revive domestic production, but challenges persist.&nbsp;The Stibnite Gold Mine in Idaho, once the largest US producer of antimony, has remained closed since the 1990s, and reopening it would require overcoming significant environmental hurdles, including concerns about river pollution.<h2>The race for alternatives</h2>As the antimony crisis deepens, countries outside China are beginning to explore alternative sources. Australia, which has substantial antimony reserves, is emerging as a key player in the global market. The Hillgrove Gold-Antimony Project in Australia has seen a rise in investment, and US companies are seeking partnerships to tap into this resource.&nbsp;Tajikistan, a relatively small producer of antimony, is also positioning itself as a crucial supplier. The country’s Talco Gold mine, a joint venture with China’s Tibet Huayu Mining, has ramped up production to become Europe’s largest supplier of antimony metal. This shift highlights the growing importance of alternative sources in addressing the global supply shortfall.Experts agree that a long-term solution to the antimony shortage will require more than just short-term fixes. Some suggest that increased investment in recycling and material recovery could provide some stability to the market. Additionally, efforts to diversify supply sources outside China, particularly in Australia, could help mitigate future risks.For now, however, the antimony shortage is a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities inherent in the global supply chain for critical minerals. With industries from defence to renewable energy relying on antimony, securing a steady and sustainable supply will be crucial in the years to come.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

China’s antimony output has been decreasing due to a combination of mine closures, stricter environmental regulations, and a political decision to restrict exports. 

Antimony, a critical mineral used in a wide range of industries from energy storage to defence, is facing a severe global supply shortage that is driving prices to unprecedented levels. The situation, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and environmental regulations, is starting to affect industries across the globe, from manufacturers of lead-acid batteries to military equipment producers. As the supply of this vital mineral tightens, companies are scrambling to secure a reliable source, while consumers face higher costs. China’s dominance and export restrictions China has long been the world’s largest producer of antimony, accounting for approximately 60 per cent of global output in 2024. However, the country’s output has been decreasing due to a combination of mine closures, stricter environmental regulations, and a political decision to restrict exports. In late 2023, China added antimony to its list of controlled minerals, requiring exporters to obtain licences for overseas shipments. Later, by December, the country imposed an outright ban on shipments of antimony to the United States, a retaliatory move following US restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports to China. These export controls have caused a dramatic reduction in China’s global antimony supply, which is now just one-third of what it was in 2022. With China tightening its grip on the mineral and production disruptions in other key regions, global shortages have deepened, driving up prices sharply. Price surge and economic impact The price of antimony has skyrocketed over the past year, more than quadrupling from $15,000 per tonne to over $60,000 by mid-2024. In some markets, prices have reached a record high of $51,500 per tonne in 2025, according to sources like Military Metals Corp. The surge represents the fastest price rise in over 40 years, with European prices jumping by 75 per cent in just a year. Experts predict that if the supply shortage persists, antimony prices could climb to as much as $100,000 per tonne. This surge has had immediate consequences for industries that rely on antimony, particularly battery manufacturers, electronics producers, and defence contractors. US-based companies, such as Clarios and Honda, which use antimony in their lead-acid batteries, are feeling the strain as procurement costs skyrocket. The Responsible Battery Coalition, which represents major battery manufacturers, has called the situation a “national emergency”, urging policymakers to treat the shortage as a national security concern. The ripple effect across sectors While the lead-acid battery market remains the largest consumer of antimony, its applications extend across many industries. The flame-retardant properties of antimony make it indispensable in products like fire-resistant clothing, construction materials, and electronics. The surge in demand for antimony as an essential element in energy storage solutions, including liquid-metal batteries and emerging sodium-ion technologies, is further contributing to the crisis. The defence sector also faces an urgent need for antimony, as it is used in more than 200 types of ammunition, including in military vehicles and infrared sensors. As the US Department of Defense intensifies its focus on securing critical materials, the shortage of antimony has taken on even greater significance. Despite the pressing demand, US manufacturers are finding it difficult to secure a stable supply. Nils Backeberg, director of consultancy Project Blue, told Reuters that companies in the West are increasingly turning to a “grey market”, where stockpiled materials are being sold at inflated prices. As a result, many manufacturers are passing on the higher procurement costs to their customers, causing an increase in product prices. A global supply chain crisis While antimony is still being mined in other countries, including Russia, Myanmar, and Tajikistan, political instability and environmental challenges are hindering production in these regions. Russia, which holds a significant share of the world’s antimony reserves, has seen its output drop due to Western sanctions and the economic fallout from the Ukraine war. Meanwhile, Myanmar’s political unrest has led to production disruptions that further complicated supply chains. The United States, which has historically relied on imported antimony from China, is taking steps to reduce its dependence on international sources. Efforts are underway to revive domestic production, but challenges persist. The Stibnite Gold Mine in Idaho, once the largest US producer of antimony, has remained closed since the 1990s, and reopening it would require overcoming significant environmental hurdles, including concerns about river pollution. The race for alternatives As the antimony crisis deepens, countries outside China are beginning to explore alternative sources. Australia, which has substantial antimony reserves, is emerging as a key player in the global market. The Hillgrove Gold-Antimony Project in Australia has seen a rise in investment, and US companies are seeking partnerships to tap into this resource. Tajikistan, a relatively small producer of antimony, is also positioning itself as a crucial supplier. The country’s Talco Gold mine, a joint venture with China’s Tibet Huayu Mining, has ramped up production to become Europe’s largest supplier of antimony metal. This shift highlights the growing importance of alternative sources in addressing the global supply shortfall. Experts agree that a long-term solution to the antimony shortage will require more than just short-term fixes. Some suggest that increased investment in recycling and material recovery could provide some stability to the market. Additionally, efforts to diversify supply sources outside China, particularly in Australia, could help mitigate future risks. For now, however, the antimony shortage is a stark reminder of the vulnerabilities inherent in the global supply chain for critical minerals. With industries from defence to renewable energy relying on antimony, securing a steady and sustainable supply will be crucial in the years to come. (With inputs from agencies)

China’s antimony output has been decreasing due to a combination of mine closures, stricter environmental regulations, and a political decision to restrict exports.&nbsp;

Antimony crisis: Rising demand and political tensions push prices higher

Japan’s fragile recovery has hit another roadblock. The country’s exports fell for the first time in eight months in May 2025, raising fears of a technical recession amid a widening trade deficit, falling auto shipments, and escalating US tariff pressure.&nbsp;Official data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, as reported by Reuters, shows that merchandise exports shrank 1.7 per cent year-on-year in May, missing market expectations of a steeper 3.7 per cent decline. The contraction was led by a slump in car, steel, and mineral fuel shipments.&nbsp;At the same time, imports dropped 7.7 per cent, primarily due to lower crude oil and coal purchases, resulting in a trade deficit of ¥637.6 billion ($4.4 billion), the second consecutive monthly shortfall.<h2>US tariffs rattle Japan’s top export sectors</h2>The latest export slowdown comes just weeks after US President Donald Trump doubled down on a protectionist trade agenda, imposing a 25 per cent tariff on Japanese car and auto part imports and raising the levy on steel and aluminium to 50 per cent.&nbsp;The Trump administration also announced a baseline 10 per cent tariff on all Japanese goods, which is set to rise to 24 per cent on July 9 unless a deal is reached. Negotiations between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba during the G7 summit failed to produce a breakthrough.&nbsp;As a result, exports to the United States plunged 11.1 per cent in May, with car shipments alone falling 24.7 per cent year-on-year. Japan’s trade surplus with the US narrowed to ¥451.7 billion, making it a likely target in Trump’s “reciprocal trade” policy push.&nbsp;“The tariff hit could shave nearly 1 percentage point off Japan’s GDP if all proposed duties take effect,” warned the Japan Research Institute, as quoted by Reuters.<h2>Trade data at a glance</h2>Below is a monthly breakdown of Japan’s year-on-year export growth from January 2023 to May 2025, based on Ministry of Finance data visualised by Bloomberg.&nbsp;&nbsp;The chart illustrates a clear trajectory in Japan’s export performance over the past two years. From late 2023 to mid-2024, exports showed strong year-on-year growth, peaking notably in November–December 2023 and again in May 2024.&nbsp;&nbsp;Economists suggest this surge was likely driven by Japanese firms front-loading shipments in anticipation of looming US tariffs. However, the momentum began to fade in the second half of 2024, with exports slipping into negative territory in September 2024.&nbsp;&nbsp;Although there was a brief recovery in the months that followed, the trend reversed once again by May 2025. That month marked a 1.7 per cent decline in exports, ending an eight-month stretch of expansion and confirming that the impact of US tariffs—previously obscured by early stockpiling—has started to bite into Japan’s trade flows. &nbsp;

Japan Export - Data compiled from Bloomberg chart sourced via Japan Ministry of Finance

<h2>China, Europe, and global trade shifts</h2>Japan’s export troubles aren’t confined to the US. Shipments to China, the country’s largest trading partner, fell 8.8 per cent in May, as demand for industrial goods and electronic components weakened. Exports to Europe, however, rose 4.9 per cent.&nbsp;According to Reuters, the earlier spike in US-bound shipments this year was partly driven by firms rushing to beat Trump’s tariff deadlines. But with that buffer now fading, Japan’s trade numbers are showing the full impact of US duties.<h2>Recession fears return</h2>With exports falling, a wide trade deficit, and consumption still weak, Japan risks slipping into a technical recession defined as two straight quarters of negative growth. The economy had already contracted in Q1 2025 due to sluggish domestic demand.&nbsp;The outlook complicates the Bank of Japan’s cautious policy pivot. On Tuesday, the BoJ held interest rates steady at 0.5 per cent, its highest level since 2007, but slowed its pace of bond tapering, citing global risks including Middle East conflict and trade uncertainty.&nbsp;Economists say rising tariffs and falling exports could force policymakers to delay further tightening, with the BoJ’s ultra-loose decade-long policy still casting a long shadow.<h2>What’s at stake</h2>Japan exported ¥21 trillion worth of goods to the United States in 2024, with automobiles accounting for 28 per cent of that total.&nbsp;&nbsp;With Trump’s reciprocal tariff deadline looming, Tokyo faces mounting pressure to protect its flagship industries—or risk deeper economic fallout in the second half of 2025.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies) &nbsp;

Japan imports decreased by 7.7%, leading to a trade deficit of ¥637.6 billion. US tariffs, recently intensified by President Trump, caused exports to the US to fall 11.1%, suggesting potential GDP impacts from proposed duties, as negotiations yielded no resolutions.

Japan’s fragile recovery has hit another roadblock. The country’s exports fell for the first time in eight months in May 2025, raising fears of a technical recession amid a widening trade deficit, falling auto shipments, and escalating US tariff pressure. Official data from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, as reported by Reuters, shows that merchandise exports shrank 1.7 per cent year-on-year in May, missing market expectations of a steeper 3.7 per cent decline. The contraction was led by a slump in car, steel, and mineral fuel shipments. At the same time, imports dropped 7.7 per cent, primarily due to lower crude oil and coal purchases, resulting in a trade deficit of ¥637.6 billion ($4.4 billion), the second consecutive monthly shortfall. US tariffs rattle Japan’s top export sectors The latest export slowdown comes just weeks after US President Donald Trump doubled down on a protectionist trade agenda, imposing a 25 per cent tariff on Japanese car and auto part imports and raising the levy on steel and aluminium to 50 per cent. The Trump administration also announced a baseline 10 per cent tariff on all Japanese goods, which is set to rise to 24 per cent on July 9 unless a deal is reached. Negotiations between Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba during the G7 summit failed to produce a breakthrough. As a result, exports to the United States plunged 11.1 per cent in May, with car shipments alone falling 24.7 per cent year-on-year. Japan’s trade surplus with the US narrowed to ¥451.7 billion, making it a likely target in Trump’s “reciprocal trade” policy push. “The tariff hit could shave nearly 1 percentage point off Japan’s GDP if all proposed duties take effect,” warned the Japan Research Institute, as quoted by Reuters. Trade data at a glance Below is a monthly breakdown of Japan’s year-on-year export growth from January 2023 to May 2025, based on Ministry of Finance data visualised by Bloomberg. The chart illustrates a clear trajectory in Japan’s export performance over the past two years. From late 2023 to mid-2024, exports showed strong year-on-year growth, peaking notably in November–December 2023 and again in May 2024. Economists suggest this surge was likely driven by Japanese firms front-loading shipments in anticipation of looming US tariffs. However, the momentum began to fade in the second half of 2024, with exports slipping into negative territory in September 2024. Although there was a brief recovery in the months that followed, the trend reversed once again by May 2025. That month marked a 1.7 per cent decline in exports, ending an eight-month stretch of expansion and confirming that the impact of US tariffs—previously obscured by early stockpiling—has started to bite into Japan’s trade flows.

Japan's recovery faces setbacks as exports declined 1.7% year-on-year in May 2025, the first drop in eight months, spurred by falling shipments of cars, steel, and fuels.

Japan’s exports fall for first time in 8 months as US tariffs bite into recovery

US retail sales fell more than expected in May, signalling potential cracks in consumer spending as Americans pull back on big-ticket items. The Commerce Department reported a 0.9 per cent decline in retail sales, following a downwardly revised 0.1 per cent drop in April.&nbsp;Economists had forecast a smaller 0.7 per cent decrease, with estimates ranging from a 1.7 per cent drop to a modest increase.The drop was primarily driven by a slowdown in vehicle purchases, as the rush to buy cars and trucks ahead of anticipated tariff-induced price hikes faded.&nbsp;The effects of President Donald Trump’s trade policies, including a 25 per cent duty on imported vehicles that took effect in April, are continuing to weigh on consumer decisions.<h2>Impact of tariffs and cooling consumer demand</h2>The sluggish retail performance in May reflects broader concerns surrounding tariffs and the economic uncertainty they bring. US consumers had frontloaded big-ticket purchases earlier in the year as they anticipated rising prices due to tariffs. However, as the urgency around these price hikes diminished, consumer spending began to cool.“Tariff announcements have had a clear impact on the timing of large-ticket purchases, notably autos, but there are few signs yet that tariffs are leading to a general pullback in consumer spending,” Michael Pearce, deputy chief economist at Oxford Economics told&nbsp;Reuters. Despite the decline, Pearce and other economists expect a more marked slowdown later in the year as tariffs begin to erode disposable income.In a separate report, industrial production in the US fell by 0.2 per cent in May, missing expectations for a slight increase. This marks the second consecutive month of disappointing industrial performance, following a 0.1 per cent increase in April.&nbsp;Manufacturing output rose by just 0.1 per cent, undershooting forecasts and pointing to continued sluggishness in factory activity. Capacity utilisation, a gauge of how fully firms are using their resources, also fell to 77.4 per cent in May, signalling lower-than-expected demand for industrial goods.The retail and industrial data suggest that US economic momentum may be slowing. Economists are closely watching the second quarter, with the Atlanta Fed forecasting a 3.8 per cent annualised GDP growth rate, largely due to a reversal in imports. However, the labour market is showing signs of deceleration, and concerns about rising costs due to tariffs are expected to weigh on household spending.<h2>Mixed picture in categories</h2>While overall retail sales faltered, there were some pockets of strength. Online retail sales rose by 0.9 per cent, and clothing retailers saw a 0.8 per cent increase in sales.&nbsp;Furniture sales soared 1.2 per cent, while sales in sporting goods and hobby stores rose 1.3 per cent. These gains in non-essential goods suggest that while some consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending, others remain willing to spend on select items.However, categories like automotive sales and services, including dining out, experienced noticeable declines. Auto sales fell 3.5 per cent, marking a significant drop after a surge earlier in the year. Spending at service stations also fell by 2.0 per cent due to a drop in gasoline prices, while receipts at food services and drinking places fell 0.9 per cent, a key indicator of household spending habits.<h2>Core retail sales show modest improvement</h2>Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, showed modest growth of 0.4 per cent in May, following a revised 0.1 per cent decline in April.&nbsp;This figure is closely tied to consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy. Although this uptick suggests a slight improvement, economists are cautious about future growth, given the broader slowdown in the labour market and the resumption of student loan payments for millions of Americans.The Federal Reserve is also closely monitoring these developments. Fed officials are expected to keep interest rates unchanged in their upcoming meeting, with policymakers focusing on the impact of tariffs and geopolitical tensions in West Asia on economic growth.

The sluggish retail performance in May reflects broader concerns surrounding tariffs and the economic uncertainty they bring.

US retail sales fell more than expected in May, signalling potential cracks in consumer spending as Americans pull back on big-ticket items. The Commerce Department reported a 0.9 per cent decline in retail sales, following a downwardly revised 0.1 per cent drop in April. Economists had forecast a smaller 0.7 per cent decrease, with estimates ranging from a 1.7 per cent drop to a modest increase. The drop was primarily driven by a slowdown in vehicle purchases, as the rush to buy cars and trucks ahead of anticipated tariff-induced price hikes faded. The effects of President Donald Trump’s trade policies, including a 25 per cent duty on imported vehicles that took effect in April, are continuing to weigh on consumer decisions. Impact of tariffs and cooling consumer demand The sluggish retail performance in May reflects broader concerns surrounding tariffs and the economic uncertainty they bring. US consumers had frontloaded big-ticket purchases earlier in the year as they anticipated rising prices due to tariffs. However, as the urgency around these price hikes diminished, consumer spending began to cool. “Tariff announcements have had a clear impact on the timing of large-ticket purchases, notably autos, but there are few signs yet that tariffs are leading to a general pullback in consumer spending,” Michael Pearce, deputy chief economist at Oxford Economics told Reuters. Despite the decline, Pearce and other economists expect a more marked slowdown later in the year as tariffs begin to erode disposable income. In a separate report, industrial production in the US fell by 0.2 per cent in May, missing expectations for a slight increase. This marks the second consecutive month of disappointing industrial performance, following a 0.1 per cent increase in April. Manufacturing output rose by just 0.1 per cent, undershooting forecasts and pointing to continued sluggishness in factory activity. Capacity utilisation, a gauge of how fully firms are using their resources, also fell to 77.4 per cent in May, signalling lower-than-expected demand for industrial goods. The retail and industrial data suggest that US economic momentum may be slowing. Economists are closely watching the second quarter, with the Atlanta Fed forecasting a 3.8 per cent annualised GDP growth rate, largely due to a reversal in imports. However, the labour market is showing signs of deceleration, and concerns about rising costs due to tariffs are expected to weigh on household spending. Mixed picture in categories While overall retail sales faltered, there were some pockets of strength. Online retail sales rose by 0.9 per cent, and clothing retailers saw a 0.8 per cent increase in sales. Furniture sales soared 1.2 per cent, while sales in sporting goods and hobby stores rose 1.3 per cent. These gains in non-essential goods suggest that while some consumers are pulling back on discretionary spending, others remain willing to spend on select items. However, categories like automotive sales and services, including dining out, experienced noticeable declines. Auto sales fell 3.5 per cent, marking a significant drop after a surge earlier in the year. Spending at service stations also fell by 2.0 per cent due to a drop in gasoline prices, while receipts at food services and drinking places fell 0.9 per cent, a key indicator of household spending habits. Core retail sales show modest improvement Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, gasoline, building materials, and food services, showed modest growth of 0.4 per cent in May, following a revised 0.1 per cent decline in April. This figure is closely tied to consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the US economy. Although this uptick suggests a slight improvement, economists are cautious about future growth, given the broader slowdown in the labour market and the resumption of student loan payments for millions of Americans. The Federal Reserve is also closely monitoring these developments. Fed officials are expected to keep interest rates unchanged in their upcoming meeting, with policymakers focusing on the impact of tariffs and geopolitical tensions in West Asia on economic growth.

The sluggish retail performance in May reflects broader concerns surrounding tariffs and the economic uncertainty they bring.

US retail sales decline in May; is an economic slowdown in sight?

Oil prices are rising sharply, and global markets are edging into risk-off mode as the Iran–Israel conflict shows no signs of slowing, entering its sixth day on Wednesday.&nbsp;&nbsp;The geopolitical crisis, centred near the Strait of Hormuz, is reviving fears of a global energy shock, even as central banks weigh the fallout on inflation and growth.&nbsp;Brent crude futures rose 19 cents to $76.64 a barrel in early trading, while US West Texas Intermediate climbed 23 cents to $75.07. That followed a 4 per cent spike in prices on Tuesday amid mounting concerns that the Middle East conflict could disrupt oil supplies.<h2>Strait of Hormuz back in focus</h2>Much of the market anxiety revolves around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which nearly 20 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil passes. According to Reuters, two tankers collided and caught fire near the strait on Tuesday, raising red flags about safety in the region.&nbsp;The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations also warned of “electronic interference” affecting ship navigation systems in the area, a possible sign of growing cyber-warfare threats tied to the conflict.&nbsp;Iran, the third-largest producer in OPEC, pumps around 3.3 million barrels per day. Should the fighting escalate, or sanctions intensify, traders expect disruptions to Iranian output though other OPEC members may struggle to compensate using spare capacity.<h2>Trump ups the ante</h2>On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and sent additional fighter jets to the region, according to US officials quoted by Reuters. The US military buildup comes as part of an effort to deter further escalation, though markets fear it may have the opposite effect.&nbsp;Trump’s early departure from the Group of Seven summit in Canada only deepened investor unease. While there were hopes of progress on global trade talks, those evaporated as Trump returned to Washington citing Iran’s provocations.&nbsp;“The market was anxious to hopefully hear updates on trade agreements out of the G7 and the news of Trump leaving early was disappointing,” Eric Sterner of Apollon Wealth Management told Reuters.<h2>Wall Street wobbles</h2>The risk-off sentiment dragged down US stocks on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.70 per cent, the S&amp;P 500 slipped 0.84 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.91 per cent.&nbsp;Meanwhile, oil continued its upward climb, with Brent settling 4.52 per cent higher at $76.54 per barrel and US crude jumping 4.46 per cent to close at $74.97.&nbsp;The conflict is also fuelling demand for safe-haven assets. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries fell to 4.389 per cent, down 6.5 basis points from Monday, a sign of growing investor caution.&nbsp;The VIX volatility index, often called Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” rose to a four-week high of 21.6, though still far below pandemic or financial crisis peaks. Analysts said the current spike reflects concern but not full-scale panic yet.&nbsp;“This is like Stage 1 of moving towards a little bit of volatility,” said Matt Thompson of Little Harbor Advisors. “The VIX marketplace thinks the conflict is going to be contained.”<h2>Will the Fed change course?</h2>All eyes now turn to the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 4.25–4.50 per cent when it concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday.&nbsp;However, market analysts including IG’s Tony Sycamore suggest the Iran–Israel war could prompt the Fed to consider an earlier-than-expected rate cut. “The situation in the Middle East could become a catalyst for the Fed to sound more dovish, as it did follow the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack,” Sycamore told Reuters.&nbsp;Lower rates generally boost oil demand by stimulating growth. But higher energy costs can also stoke inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy response.&nbsp;“Jerome Powell is going to continue to express that they are focused on data at this point,” said Matt Rubin of Cary Street Partners. “And that data does not warrant a cut.”<h2>Broader global impact</h2>The ripple effect is being felt across Europe too, where the STOXX 600 index closed at a three-week low on Tuesday. Investors are also bracing for interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank later this week.&nbsp;In Asia, the Bank of Japan held rates steady at 0.5 per cent, its highest level since 2007, reflecting the growing uncertainty amid global inflation risks and weak domestic demand.&nbsp;Despite the conflict, Qatar said operations at the world’s largest gas field remain unaffected, even as Iran suspended some output after Israeli air strikes.&nbsp;The Iran–Israel war is redrawing the global economic map, with oil markets, central banks, and investors caught in its crosshairs.&nbsp;The longer it lasts, the deeper its impact on inflation, policy, and global growth.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)

Amid rising tensions in the Middle East, oil spikes and Wall Street stumbles as investors brace for inflation risks, Fed moves, and global economic fallout.

Oil prices are rising sharply, and global markets are edging into risk-off mode as the Iran–Israel conflict shows no signs of slowing, entering its sixth day on Wednesday. The geopolitical crisis, centred near the Strait of Hormuz, is reviving fears of a global energy shock, even as central banks weigh the fallout on inflation and growth. Brent crude futures rose 19 cents to $76.64 a barrel in early trading, while US West Texas Intermediate climbed 23 cents to $75.07. That followed a 4 per cent spike in prices on Tuesday amid mounting concerns that the Middle East conflict could disrupt oil supplies. Strait of Hormuz back in focus Much of the market anxiety revolves around the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow chokepoint through which nearly 20 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil passes. According to Reuters, two tankers collided and caught fire near the strait on Tuesday, raising red flags about safety in the region. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations also warned of “electronic interference” affecting ship navigation systems in the area, a possible sign of growing cyber-warfare threats tied to the conflict. Iran, the third-largest producer in OPEC, pumps around 3.3 million barrels per day. Should the fighting escalate, or sanctions intensify, traders expect disruptions to Iranian output though other OPEC members may struggle to compensate using spare capacity. Trump ups the ante On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and sent additional fighter jets to the region, according to US officials quoted by Reuters. The US military buildup comes as part of an effort to deter further escalation, though markets fear it may have the opposite effect. Trump’s early departure from the Group of Seven summit in Canada only deepened investor unease. While there were hopes of progress on global trade talks, those evaporated as Trump returned to Washington citing Iran’s provocations. “The market was anxious to hopefully hear updates on trade agreements out of the G7 and the news of Trump leaving early was disappointing,” Eric Sterner of Apollon Wealth Management told Reuters. Wall Street wobbles The risk-off sentiment dragged down US stocks on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 0.70 per cent, the S&P 500 slipped 0.84 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq fell 0.91 per cent. Meanwhile, oil continued its upward climb, with Brent settling 4.52 per cent higher at $76.54 per barrel and US crude jumping 4.46 per cent to close at $74.97. The conflict is also fuelling demand for safe-haven assets. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries fell to 4.389 per cent, down 6.5 basis points from Monday, a sign of growing investor caution. The VIX volatility index, often called Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” rose to a four-week high of 21.6, though still far below pandemic or financial crisis peaks. Analysts said the current spike reflects concern but not full-scale panic yet. “This is like Stage 1 of moving towards a little bit of volatility,” said Matt Thompson of Little Harbor Advisors. “The VIX marketplace thinks the conflict is going to be contained.” Will the Fed change course? All eyes now turn to the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to keep its benchmark rate steady at 4.25–4.50 per cent when it concludes its policy meeting on Wednesday. However, market analysts including IG’s Tony Sycamore suggest the Iran–Israel war could prompt the Fed to consider an earlier-than-expected rate cut. “The situation in the Middle East could become a catalyst for the Fed to sound more dovish, as it did follow the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack,” Sycamore told Reuters. Lower rates generally boost oil demand by stimulating growth. But higher energy costs can also stoke inflation, complicating the Fed’s policy response. “Jerome Powell is going to continue to express that they are focused on data at this point,” said Matt Rubin of Cary Street Partners. “And that data does not warrant a cut.” Broader global impact The ripple effect is being felt across Europe too, where the STOXX 600 index closed at a three-week low on Tuesday. Investors are also bracing for interest rate decisions from the Bank of England and the Swiss National Bank later this week. In Asia, the Bank of Japan held rates steady at 0.5 per cent, its highest level since 2007, reflecting the growing uncertainty amid global inflation risks and weak domestic demand. Despite the conflict, Qatar said operations at the world’s largest gas field remain unaffected, even as Iran suspended some output after Israeli air strikes. The Iran–Israel war is redrawing the global economic map, with oil markets, central banks, and investors caught in its crosshairs. The longer it lasts, the deeper its impact on inflation, policy, and global growth. (With inputs from the agencies)

Oil prices surge and markets slip as the Iran–Israel conflict escalates near the Strait of Hormuz, fuelling fears of a global energy shock.

Oil hits sixth-day high, Wall Street wobbles as Iran–Israel tensions escalate

In a defining moment for the crypto industry, the United States Senate has passed the GENIUS Act, a bill that sets up the first comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, or digital tokens pegged to the US dollar.&nbsp;The bipartisan legislation, which passed with a 68-30 vote on Tuesday, marks a historic step in regulating the fast-growing stablecoin market. But it also arrives amid growing scrutiny of President Donald Trump’s personal and political ties to the digital asset industry.&nbsp;As reported by Reuters, the bill officially named the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act requires stablecoin issuers to hold full reserves in liquid assets like US dollars and short-term Treasury bills.&nbsp;&nbsp;It also mandates monthly public disclosures and compliance with anti-money laundering norms.<h2>Why stablecoins matter</h2>Stablecoins are a subset of cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a fixed value, typically pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. Unlike volatile tokens like Bitcoin, stablecoins allow for faster, cheaper digital payments, posing a direct challenge to traditional financial rails.&nbsp;According to a Deutsche Bank study, stablecoin transaction volumes exceeded $28 trillion in 2024, surpassing Visa and Mastercard combined.&nbsp;&nbsp;US-based platforms such as Coinbase, Stripe, and Shopify are already integrating stablecoin-based payments like USDC, signalling a broader shift in the way Americans move money.<h2>A political win for the crypto lobby</h2>The GENIUS Act is the crypto industry’s first major legislative win in Washington. As per Reuters, the sector spent more than $119 million lobbying Congress and backing pro-crypto candidates during the 2024 elections.&nbsp;It also comes as President Trump ramps up efforts to shape crypto policy. His campaign has been actively courting crypto donors, and his allies have been pushing for regulatory clarity in what’s now considered the most pro-crypto Congress in US history.&nbsp;Bo Hines, who chairs Trump’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, has said the White House wants a stablecoin law on the books by August.&nbsp;But that aggressive push has raised eyebrows and drawn criticism.<h2>Trump’s billion-dollar crypto empire</h2>According to recent financial disclosures cited by Reuters, Trump earned at least $57 million in 2024 from crypto-related ventures.&nbsp;&nbsp;He holds nearly 16 billion WLFI tokens, governance rights in World Liberty Financial, a crypto firm he partially owns. On paper, those holdings could be worth close to $1 billion.&nbsp;Trump’s digital asset portfolio doesn’t stop there. His crypto ventures include:      •     A meme coin named $TRUMP      •     A $2.5 billion bitcoin reserve      •     Plans for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs via Truth.Fi      •     A newly launched mining firm called American Bitcoin&nbsp;While the White House claims Trump’s assets are held in a family-managed trust, critics argue the legislation doesn’t go far enough in addressing presidential conflicts of interest.&nbsp;Senator Jeff Merkley, a Democrat from Oregon, accused Republicans of “rubber-stamping Trump’s crypto corruption,” warning that the bill paves the way for financial self-dealing at the highest levels of government.<h2>House battle looms: STABLE vs GENIUS</h2>Though the Senate has passed the GENIUS Act, the bill still faces hurdles in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, which is reviewing its own version dubbed the STABLE Act.&nbsp;Both bills agree on key guardrails: no yield-bearing stablecoins and mandatory full-reserve backing. But they diverge on regulatory oversight.&nbsp;&nbsp;While the GENIUS Act centralises supervision with the US Treasury, the House bill splits it among the Federal Reserve, the Comptroller of the Currency, and other agencies.Reconciling the two bills is expected to be complex, congressional aides told Reuters.<h2>A clash of ideologies</h2>The bill’s passage underscores a broader clash in Washington over how to balance innovation and regulation in the crypto space.&nbsp;Senator Elizabeth Warren and others have warned that the GENIUS Act lacks sufficient safeguards, including restrictions on foreign stablecoin issuers and Big Tech players seeking to issue their own digital currencies.&nbsp;In response, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors called for “critical changes” to avoid weakening state-level financial oversight.&nbsp;Despite these concerns, supporters say the bill is a crucial first step.&nbsp;“This is a major milestone,” said Andrew Olmem, a former Trump adviser and current partner at law firm Mayer Brown, as quoted by Reuters. “It finally gives the industry a rulebook.”<h2>What’s next?</h2>With Trump’s crypto holdings under the spotlight and the House gearing up for its own stablecoin debate, the battle over how the US regulates digital money is far from over.&nbsp;But one thing is clear, digital dollars are no longer a fringe idea.&nbsp;&nbsp;With political power and big money behind them, stablecoins are entering the American financial mainstream, and the rules are just beginning to be written.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies) &nbsp;

The GENIUS Act sets the stage for US stablecoin regulation amid rising scrutiny of Trump’s billion-dollar crypto empire and political lobbying in Washington.

In a defining moment for the crypto industry, the United States Senate has passed the GENIUS Act, a bill that sets up the first comprehensive regulatory framework for stablecoins, or digital tokens pegged to the US dollar. The bipartisan legislation, which passed with a 68-30 vote on Tuesday, marks a historic step in regulating the fast-growing stablecoin market. But it also arrives amid growing scrutiny of President Donald Trump’s personal and political ties to the digital asset industry. As reported by Reuters, the bill officially named the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act requires stablecoin issuers to hold full reserves in liquid assets like US dollars and short-term Treasury bills. It also mandates monthly public disclosures and compliance with anti-money laundering norms. Why stablecoins matter Stablecoins are a subset of cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a fixed value, typically pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. Unlike volatile tokens like Bitcoin, stablecoins allow for faster, cheaper digital payments, posing a direct challenge to traditional financial rails. According to a Deutsche Bank study, stablecoin transaction volumes exceeded $28 trillion in 2024, surpassing Visa and Mastercard combined. US-based platforms such as Coinbase, Stripe, and Shopify are already integrating stablecoin-based payments like USDC, signalling a broader shift in the way Americans move money. A political win for the crypto lobby The GENIUS Act is the crypto industry’s first major legislative win in Washington. As per Reuters, the sector spent more than $119 million lobbying Congress and backing pro-crypto candidates during the 2024 elections. It also comes as President Trump ramps up efforts to shape crypto policy. His campaign has been actively courting crypto donors, and his allies have been pushing for regulatory clarity in what’s now considered the most pro-crypto Congress in US history. Bo Hines, who chairs Trump’s Council of Advisers on Digital Assets, has said the White House wants a stablecoin law on the books by August. But that aggressive push has raised eyebrows and drawn criticism. Trump’s billion-dollar crypto empire According to recent financial disclosures cited by Reuters, Trump earned at least $57 million in 2024 from crypto-related ventures. He holds nearly 16 billion WLFI tokens, governance rights in World Liberty Financial, a crypto firm he partially owns. On paper, those holdings could be worth close to $1 billion. Trump’s digital asset portfolio doesn’t stop there. His crypto ventures include:       •     A meme coin named $TRUMP       •     A $2.5 billion bitcoin reserve       •     Plans for Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs via Truth.Fi       •     A newly launched mining firm called American Bitcoin While the White House claims Trump’s assets are held in a family-managed trust, critics argue the legislation doesn’t go far enough in addressing presidential conflicts of interest. Senator Jeff Merkley, a Democrat from Oregon, accused Republicans of “rubber-stamping Trump’s crypto corruption,” warning that the bill paves the way for financial self-dealing at the highest levels of government. House battle looms: STABLE vs GENIUS Though the Senate has passed the GENIUS Act, the bill still faces hurdles in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, which is reviewing its own version dubbed the STABLE Act. Both bills agree on key guardrails: no yield-bearing stablecoins and mandatory full-reserve backing. But they diverge on regulatory oversight. While the GENIUS Act centralises supervision with the US Treasury, the House bill splits it among the Federal Reserve, the Comptroller of the Currency, and other agencies. Reconciling the two bills is expected to be complex, congressional aides told Reuters. A clash of ideologies The bill’s passage underscores a broader clash in Washington over how to balance innovation and regulation in the crypto space. Senator Elizabeth Warren and others have warned that the GENIUS Act lacks sufficient safeguards, including restrictions on foreign stablecoin issuers and Big Tech players seeking to issue their own digital currencies. In response, the Conference of State Bank Supervisors called for “critical changes” to avoid weakening state-level financial oversight. Despite these concerns, supporters say the bill is a crucial first step. “This is a major milestone,” said Andrew Olmem, a former Trump adviser and current partner at law firm Mayer Brown, as quoted by Reuters. “It finally gives the industry a rulebook.” What’s next? With Trump’s crypto holdings under the spotlight and the House gearing up for its own stablecoin debate, the battle over how the US regulates digital money is far from over. But one thing is clear, digital dollars are no longer a fringe idea. With political power and big money behind them, stablecoins are entering the American financial mainstream, and the rules are just beginning to be written. (With inputs from the agencies)

The US Senate has passed the landmark GENIUS Act, giving stablecoins their first clear rulebook as Trump’s deep crypto ties spark conflict-of-interest concerns.

GENIUS Act: US Senate passes landmark crypto bill amid Trump’s billion-dollar stablecoin push

The global oil market is entering a new phase of structural change as oil production capacity is expected to far outpace demand growth through the end of the decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil 2025 medium-term outlook released on June 17.&nbsp;The report warns, however, that mounting geopolitical risks, notably the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, continue to pose a threat to supply security despite strong fundamentals.According to the IEA, global oil production capacity is forecast to grow by over 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2030, reaching 114.7 mb/d. Meanwhile, demand is expected to rise by just 2.5 mb/d from 2024 levels, plateauing around 105.5 mb/d by the decade’s end.&nbsp;This growing surplus signals a potentially well-supplied market over the next five years, barring any major disruptions.The agency attributed this supply growth to robust output from non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the “Americas Quintet”, the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina.&nbsp;These nations are forecast to more than cover the projected increase in demand, even as the OPEC+ alliance gradually unwinds voluntary production cuts.“From 2015 to 2024, the US accounted for 90 per cent of global supply growth. That pace is slowing, but it still remains the largest contributor to non-OPEC+ output,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. He added that oil markets remain structurally sound but vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.<h2>China and US no longer primary demand-supply anchors</h2>The report marks a significant turning point in global oil market dynamics. For over a decade, China and the US were the dual engines of oil demand and supply, respectively.&nbsp;Chinese demand alone accounted for 60 per cent of global consumption growth over the past 10 years, while US shale production drove the majority of new supply.However, that era may be ending. Chinese oil consumption is expected to peak by 2027 as electric vehicle (EV) sales soar, high-speed rail networks expand, and more trucks switch to natural gas. EV sales hit a record 17 million in 2024 and are projected to exceed 20 million in 2025, displacing an estimated 5.4 mb/d of oil demand globally by 2030.Meanwhile, US oil output growth is slowing as shale producers reduce capital spending and prioritise returns over expansion. Despite this, the US remains the single largest contributor to non-OPEC supply growth through the decade.<h2>Asia will drive future demand, led by India</h2>While demand in advanced economies is expected to contract, Asia, particularly India, is set to lead the next wave of oil consumption growth. India alone is forecast to add 1 mb/d in new demand by 2030, making it the single largest contributor among individual countries.“Asia dominates growth,” the report notes, citing continued industrialisation and rising transportation fuel needs across South and Southeast Asia. This shift underscores a broader rebalancing in global energy consumption patterns.The petrochemical sector is also set to become the dominant source of oil demand growth from 2026 onwards. By 2030, the industry is expected to consume one in every six barrels of oil, primarily in the form of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and other non-crude inputs.<h2>Geopolitical risks cast a shadow</h2>Despite the projected supply surplus, recent geopolitical events have raised alarms over potential disruptions. On June 13, Israel launched air strikes on Iranian military and energy facilities, prompting retaliatory attacks.&nbsp;Though there has been no immediate impact on Iranian oil exports, currently around 2.6 mb/d, fears of a wider conflict and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude futures to a six-month high of $74 per barrel.Iran also reported production cuts at the South Pars gas field due to fire damage, while Israel halted over 60 per cent of its natural gas output amid security concerns. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, with 25 per cent of the world’s oil supply passing through the narrow waterway.“While fundamentals point to a well-supplied market, these recent developments are a stark reminder of the ongoing geopolitical fragility in oil markets,” Birol warned.<h2>Refining and inventory trends</h2>With oil demand for combustion fuels nearing a peak, global refining capacity is projected to exceed demand for refined products by 2030. This imbalance may lead to more refinery closures, especially in mature markets. Refinery throughput is forecast to rise modestly by around 460 kb/d annually in 2025 and 2026, reaching 83.7 mb/d.Oil inventories have been rising steadily, with global stocks surging by 93 million barrels in May alone. Despite this, OECD inventories remain 97 million barrels below 2024 levels, reflecting ongoing volatility in market sentiment.In the absence of major disruptions, the IEA projects a stable, oversupplied oil market through 2030. Yet, the shadow of geopolitical conflict and the energy transition underscores a fragile balance. As Birol concluded, “There is no room for complacency when it comes to energy security.”

The report warns, however, that mounting geopolitical risks, notably the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, continue to pose a threat to supply security despite strong fundamentals.

The global oil market is entering a new phase of structural change as oil production capacity is expected to far outpace demand growth through the end of the decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil 2025 medium-term outlook released on June 17. The report warns, however, that mounting geopolitical risks, notably the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, continue to pose a threat to supply security despite strong fundamentals. According to the IEA, global oil production capacity is forecast to grow by over 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2030, reaching 114.7 mb/d. Meanwhile, demand is expected to rise by just 2.5 mb/d from 2024 levels, plateauing around 105.5 mb/d by the decade’s end. This growing surplus signals a potentially well-supplied market over the next five years, barring any major disruptions. The agency attributed this supply growth to robust output from non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the “Americas Quintet”, the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina. These nations are forecast to more than cover the projected increase in demand, even as the OPEC+ alliance gradually unwinds voluntary production cuts. “From 2015 to 2024, the US accounted for 90 per cent of global supply growth. That pace is slowing, but it still remains the largest contributor to non-OPEC+ output,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. He added that oil markets remain structurally sound but vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. China and US no longer primary demand-supply anchors The report marks a significant turning point in global oil market dynamics. For over a decade, China and the US were the dual engines of oil demand and supply, respectively. Chinese demand alone accounted for 60 per cent of global consumption growth over the past 10 years, while US shale production drove the majority of new supply. However, that era may be ending. Chinese oil consumption is expected to peak by 2027 as electric vehicle (EV) sales soar, high-speed rail networks expand, and more trucks switch to natural gas. EV sales hit a record 17 million in 2024 and are projected to exceed 20 million in 2025, displacing an estimated 5.4 mb/d of oil demand globally by 2030. Meanwhile, US oil output growth is slowing as shale producers reduce capital spending and prioritise returns over expansion. Despite this, the US remains the single largest contributor to non-OPEC supply growth through the decade. Asia will drive future demand, led by India While demand in advanced economies is expected to contract, Asia, particularly India, is set to lead the next wave of oil consumption growth. India alone is forecast to add 1 mb/d in new demand by 2030, making it the single largest contributor among individual countries. “Asia dominates growth,” the report notes, citing continued industrialisation and rising transportation fuel needs across South and Southeast Asia. This shift underscores a broader rebalancing in global energy consumption patterns. The petrochemical sector is also set to become the dominant source of oil demand growth from 2026 onwards. By 2030, the industry is expected to consume one in every six barrels of oil, primarily in the form of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and other non-crude inputs. Geopolitical risks cast a shadow Despite the projected supply surplus, recent geopolitical events have raised alarms over potential disruptions. On June 13, Israel launched air strikes on Iranian military and energy facilities, prompting retaliatory attacks. Though there has been no immediate impact on Iranian oil exports, currently around 2.6 mb/d, fears of a wider conflict and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude futures to a six-month high of $74 per barrel. Iran also reported production cuts at the South Pars gas field due to fire damage, while Israel halted over 60 per cent of its natural gas output amid security concerns. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, with 25 per cent of the world’s oil supply passing through the narrow waterway. “While fundamentals point to a well-supplied market, these recent developments are a stark reminder of the ongoing geopolitical fragility in oil markets,” Birol warned. Refining and inventory trends With oil demand for combustion fuels nearing a peak, global refining capacity is projected to exceed demand for refined products by 2030. This imbalance may lead to more refinery closures, especially in mature markets. Refinery throughput is forecast to rise modestly by around 460 kb/d annually in 2025 and 2026, reaching 83.7 mb/d. Oil inventories have been rising steadily, with global stocks surging by 93 million barrels in May alone. Despite this, OECD inventories remain 97 million barrels below 2024 levels, reflecting ongoing volatility in market sentiment. In the absence of major disruptions, the IEA projects a stable, oversupplied oil market through 2030. Yet, the shadow of geopolitical conflict and the energy transition underscores a fragile balance. As Birol concluded, “There is no room for complacency when it comes to energy security.”

The report warns, however, that mounting geopolitical risks, notably the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, continue to pose a threat to supply security despite strong fundamentals.

Oil market set for oversupply through 2030, says IEA amid geopolitical tensions

Japan, long recognised for its pacifist constitution and decades of minimal engagement in global arms trade, is signalling a historic shift in defence policy. With rising geopolitical tensions and the strategic need to bolster its defence industry, the country is now laying the groundwork to become a competitive player in the global arms export market.Defense Minister Gen Nakatani recently told Nikkei Asia that he wants the cabinet to actively promote Japan’s defence exports, in what marks a sharp departure from the country’s traditionally insular military posture.&nbsp;Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has also signalled support for the change, becoming the first sitting Japanese premier to attend DSEI Japan, the country’s largest defence industry trade show.<h2>Deepening strategic ties</h2>Experts say the policy pivot is motivated less by economic incentives and more by security concerns and the desire for greater interoperability with allies, especially the United States.By exporting arms to friendly nations, Japan aims to standardise military hardware, streamline maintenance, and conduct joint training more effectively.The move also comes as international defence spending continues to rise. At the recent 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasised that American allies must shoulder more of their own security burden, citing NATO’s pledge to spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence.&nbsp;Analysts suggest that Japan’s increased focus on defence exports also reflects growing concern over regional threats, particularly from North Korea and China.<h2>Rebuilding a struggling industry</h2>Japan’s defence industrial base has long relied on limited domestic demand from the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF). Unlike countries such as South Korea or China, Japan has historically placed strict restrictions on arms exports.&nbsp;A 1967 policy known as the “Three Principles on Arms Exports” nearly eliminated overseas sales. While former Prime Minister Abe began easing those rules, further reforms under Fumio Kishida in 2023 have allowed Japan to manufacture and export weapons systems, including licensed products like Patriot missiles, which are now being sent to the US.Yet, the domestic defence industry is still catching up. Over 100 companies have exited the defence sector in the last two decades due to low demand and high dependency on US imports such as F-35 fighters and SPY-7 radar systems.&nbsp;<h2>Global ambitions and domestic challenges</h2>As of 2024, Japan’s arms exports remain modest—just 21 million TIV (trend indicator values), or 0.1 per cent of global arms exports, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). By contrast, South Korea exported 936 million TIV, while China shipped 1.13 billion TIV worth of weapons.CNBC reported that investor David Roche, of Quantum Strategy, believes Japan has the potential to become a key player. “Demand will exceed supply for a decade,” he said, noting that continued dependence on US arms could prove costly if American foreign policy becomes more transactional.Japan also faces demographic headwinds that could hinder its ability to scale manufacturing, and export regulations remain relatively strict.&nbsp;Japan has recently promoted homegrown assets like fighter jets and frigates in international forums and is working to upgrade defence cooperation with the EU, according to Nikkei Asia.&nbsp;While still early days, the country’s evolving stance signals a strategic reorientation, one that may redefine Japan’s role in regional and global security for decades to come.

Experts say the policy pivot is motivated less by economic incentives and more by security concerns and the desire for greater interoperability with allies, especially the United States.

Japan, long recognised for its pacifist constitution and decades of minimal engagement in global arms trade, is signalling a historic shift in defence policy. With rising geopolitical tensions and the strategic need to bolster its defence industry, the country is now laying the groundwork to become a competitive player in the global arms export market. Defense Minister Gen Nakatani recently told Nikkei Asia that he wants the cabinet to actively promote Japan’s defence exports, in what marks a sharp departure from the country’s traditionally insular military posture. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has also signalled support for the change, becoming the first sitting Japanese premier to attend DSEI Japan, the country’s largest defence industry trade show. Deepening strategic ties Experts say the policy pivot is motivated less by economic incentives and more by security concerns and the desire for greater interoperability with allies, especially the United States. By exporting arms to friendly nations, Japan aims to standardise military hardware, streamline maintenance, and conduct joint training more effectively. The move also comes as international defence spending continues to rise. At the recent 2025 Shangri-La Dialogue, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasised that American allies must shoulder more of their own security burden, citing NATO’s pledge to spend 5 per cent of GDP on defence. Analysts suggest that Japan’s increased focus on defence exports also reflects growing concern over regional threats, particularly from North Korea and China. Rebuilding a struggling industry Japan’s defence industrial base has long relied on limited domestic demand from the Japan Self-Defense Forces (JSDF). Unlike countries such as South Korea or China, Japan has historically placed strict restrictions on arms exports. A 1967 policy known as the “Three Principles on Arms Exports” nearly eliminated overseas sales. While former Prime Minister Abe began easing those rules, further reforms under Fumio Kishida in 2023 have allowed Japan to manufacture and export weapons systems, including licensed products like Patriot missiles, which are now being sent to the US. Yet, the domestic defence industry is still catching up. Over 100 companies have exited the defence sector in the last two decades due to low demand and high dependency on US imports such as F-35 fighters and SPY-7 radar systems. Global ambitions and domestic challenges As of 2024, Japan’s arms exports remain modest—just 21 million TIV (trend indicator values), or 0.1 per cent of global arms exports, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). By contrast, South Korea exported 936 million TIV, while China shipped 1.13 billion TIV worth of weapons. CNBC reported that investor David Roche, of Quantum Strategy, believes Japan has the potential to become a key player. “Demand will exceed supply for a decade,” he said, noting that continued dependence on US arms could prove costly if American foreign policy becomes more transactional. Japan also faces demographic headwinds that could hinder its ability to scale manufacturing, and export regulations remain relatively strict. Japan has recently promoted homegrown assets like fighter jets and frigates in international forums and is working to upgrade defence cooperation with the EU, according to Nikkei Asia. While still early days, the country’s evolving stance signals a strategic reorientation, one that may redefine Japan’s role in regional and global security for decades to come.

Experts say that Japan's policy pivot is motivated less by economic incentives and more by security concerns and the desire for greater interoperability with allies, especially the United States.

Japan eyes global arms market in strategic shift from pacifist roots

Gold has emerged as 2025’s most reliable safe haven, far outpacing traditional defensive assets such as the US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and US Treasuries.&nbsp;With spot gold prices surging nearly 30 per cent year-to-date, bullion has reasserted itself as the asset of choice amid mounting fiscal uncertainty and escalating geopolitical conflict, especially in West Asia.As of June 16, gold traded at $3,414 per ounce, staying within striking distance of its all-time high above $3,500 recorded in April. A recent pullback of 0.5 per cent from June 13’s close hasn’t dampened sentiment, with analysts citing a mix of technical consolidation and a temporary lull in market volatility. Despite the minor dip, gold remains less than 2 per cent away from retesting its record.<h2>Why gold, why now?</h2>The appeal of gold lies in its independence from sovereign credit risk. “Gold’s key advantage is that it is no one else’s liability,” said Nikos Kavalis, managing director at Metals Focus, during the Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference. In contrast, assets like government bonds and currencies are tied directly to national economic performance and political stability.This distinction has become more pronounced as investors reassess the reliability of traditional safe havens. The US dollar index has weakened nearly 10 per cent in 2025, while the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 19 basis points, reflecting weakening demand.&nbsp;Japanese government bonds and the yen have also lost some of their shine due to rising yields and interest rate differentials.Experts point out a growing unease about the long-term outlook of US debt and the dollar. With President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy roiling markets and Moody’s recent downgrade of US credit ratings, investor confidence in US Treasuries has eroded.Meanwhile, central banks have doubled down on gold, with over 1,000 tonnes added to reserves globally for the third straight year. The European Central Bank even reported that gold has overtaken the euro as the world’s second-largest reserve asset, now comprising 21 per cent of global holdings.<h2>Geopolitics and gold demand converge</h2>In India, gold remains on a bullish trajectory, boosted by ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran. The spot price in Ahmedabad closed at ₹98,732 per 10 grams on June 13, with futures touching ₹1,01,078 per 10 grams ($1,172) on June 16. Gold is up a staggering 47 per cent over the past year, with the surge attributed to global conflict, central bank diversification, and a weaker US dollar.Technically, gold remains above its key resistance level of $3,410 per ounce, and analysts see the potential for a retest of April’s record high.&nbsp;If bullish momentum persists, prices could break through the psychological level of $3,468 per ounce and target new highs at $3,602 per ounce or even $3,762 per ounce in the coming weeks, aided by continued safe-haven flows and seasonal planetary patterns cited by some technical analysts.With inflation fears simmering, interest rate cuts expected by September, and geopolitical tensions far from resolved, gold’s role as a stabilising force in a volatile world is clearer than ever.

Gold prices hover near record highs, driven by geopolitical tensions, investor fear, and central bank demand.

Gold has emerged as 2025’s most reliable safe haven, far outpacing traditional defensive assets such as the US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and US Treasuries. With spot gold prices surging nearly 30 per cent year-to-date, bullion has reasserted itself as the asset of choice amid mounting fiscal uncertainty and escalating geopolitical conflict, especially in West Asia. As of June 16, gold traded at $3,414 per ounce, staying within striking distance of its all-time high above $3,500 recorded in April. A recent pullback of 0.5 per cent from June 13’s close hasn’t dampened sentiment, with analysts citing a mix of technical consolidation and a temporary lull in market volatility. Despite the minor dip, gold remains less than 2 per cent away from retesting its record. Why gold, why now? The appeal of gold lies in its independence from sovereign credit risk. “Gold’s key advantage is that it is no one else’s liability,” said Nikos Kavalis, managing director at Metals Focus, during the Asia Pacific Precious Metals Conference. In contrast, assets like government bonds and currencies are tied directly to national economic performance and political stability. This distinction has become more pronounced as investors reassess the reliability of traditional safe havens. The US dollar index has weakened nearly 10 per cent in 2025, while the 10-year Treasury yield has fallen 19 basis points, reflecting weakening demand. Japanese government bonds and the yen have also lost some of their shine due to rising yields and interest rate differentials. Experts point out a growing unease about the long-term outlook of US debt and the dollar. With President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy roiling markets and Moody’s recent downgrade of US credit ratings, investor confidence in US Treasuries has eroded. Meanwhile, central banks have doubled down on gold, with over 1,000 tonnes added to reserves globally for the third straight year. The European Central Bank even reported that gold has overtaken the euro as the world’s second-largest reserve asset, now comprising 21 per cent of global holdings. Geopolitics and gold demand converge In India, gold remains on a bullish trajectory, boosted by ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran. The spot price in Ahmedabad closed at ₹98,732 per 10 grams on June 13, with futures touching ₹1,01,078 per 10 grams ($1,172) on June 16. Gold is up a staggering 47 per cent over the past year, with the surge attributed to global conflict, central bank diversification, and a weaker US dollar. Technically, gold remains above its key resistance level of $3,410 per ounce, and analysts see the potential for a retest of April’s record high. If bullish momentum persists, prices could break through the psychological level of $3,468 per ounce and target new highs at $3,602 per ounce or even $3,762 per ounce in the coming weeks, aided by continued safe-haven flows and seasonal planetary patterns cited by some technical analysts. With inflation fears simmering, interest rate cuts expected by September, and geopolitical tensions far from resolved, gold’s role as a stabilising force in a volatile world is clearer than ever.

Gold prices hover near record highs, driven by geopolitical tensions, investor fear, and central bank demand.

Gold shines brightest as 2025’s ultimate safe haven amid global uncertainty

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is pressing pause on the pace of its balance sheet drawdown, signalling a cautious turn in its policy normalisation journey amid rising global uncertainty.&nbsp;On Tuesday, the central bank held interest rates steady at 0.5 per cent, its highest level since 2007, but announced that it would reduce its purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at a slower pace beginning next year, as reported by Reuters.<h2>What exactly did the BOJ decide?</h2>Since ending its yield curve control and negative interest rate policy, the BOJ has been gradually scaling back its massive JGB holdings in a bid to exit its decade-long ultra-loose monetary regime. Under the previous plan, the bank was reducing bond purchases by around 400 billion yen (approximately $2.8 billion) per quarter.&nbsp;Now, starting April 2026, the pace will be halved to 200 billion yen per quarter, effectively delaying the target of tapering bond purchases to 2 trillion yen per month until March 2027, as quoted by Reuters.&nbsp;The move marks a significant shift in tone, especially as inflation in Japan remains above the BOJ’s 2 per cent target. Consumer prices rose 3.5 per cent year-on-year in April, driven by surging food costs and sustained wage pressures, Reuters reported.<h2>Why slow down now?</h2>Two words: global risk.&nbsp;The BOJ’s revised taper plan comes as storm clouds gather over the global economy. An escalating Iran–Israel conflict has triggered fears of energy price shocks, while fresh US trade tariffs on Japanese goods — imposed under President Donald Trump’s new “reciprocal” policy, threaten to derail Japan’s export recovery.&nbsp;In a statement, the BOJ said it would act “nimbly” if long-term interest rates spiked, hinting at readiness to buy more bonds again if market volatility resurfaces, as per Reuters.&nbsp;As Lee Hardman of MUFG noted before the meeting, “The recent softening of the yen could already partly reflect expectations for a cautious policy update from the BOJ… alongside negative spillovers for Japan from the Middle East conflict,” as quoted by Reuters.<h2>Bond market turmoil prompts caution</h2>The BOJ’s decision follows weeks of volatility in the JGB market. Last month, a weak auction of 20-year bonds sent yields soaring across maturities, with the 40-year JGB yield hitting a record 3.675 per cent. Demand from traditional buyers like insurers has waned, adding to market instability, according to Reuters.&nbsp;With Japan’s debt burden standing at a staggering 250 per cent of GDP, the highest in the developed world — any spike in yields poses significant fiscal risks. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned that higher borrowing costs “could further imperil Japan’s finances,” as per Reuters.&nbsp;To calm nerves, the finance ministry is reportedly planning to cut issuance of super-long bonds and may even launch buybacks to contain borrowing costs, Reuters has reported.<h2>Domestic pressure vs external shocks</h2>While Japan’s economy is seeing inflation, the BOJ is walking a tightrope. On the one hand, persistent cost pressures and labour shortages are prompting firms to raise wages, a potential sign of sustainable inflation.&nbsp;But on the other hand, sluggish exports, Trump’s tariff threats, and war-driven oil volatility threaten to choke off growth. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has admitted that trade talks with the US have not produced a breakthrough, as quoted by Reuters.&nbsp;Carol Kong of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia told AFP that “slowing the bond taper will help keep interest rates lower than otherwise, providing support to the economy amid heightened trade uncertainty.”<h2>What’s next?</h2>The BOJ said it will conduct an interim review of its fiscal 2026 taper strategy at its policy meeting in June next year. Analysts believe the bank could resume rate hikes later in 2025, if inflation remains sticky and economic growth holds.&nbsp;But until then, the message from Tokyo is clear: caution first.&nbsp;As the world’s third-largest economy battles both internal and external headwinds, the BOJ is in no rush to tighten the screws, especially with a volatile bond market and geopolitical turmoil at its doorstep.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies) &nbsp;

The recent turmoil in the bond market has prompted caution from the Bank of Japan (BOJ), especially following a weak auction of 20-year bonds, leading to soaring yields. 

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is pressing pause on the pace of its balance sheet drawdown, signalling a cautious turn in its policy normalisation journey amid rising global uncertainty. On Tuesday, the central bank held interest rates steady at 0.5 per cent, its highest level since 2007, but announced that it would reduce its purchases of Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at a slower pace beginning next year, as reported by Reuters. What exactly did the BOJ decide? Since ending its yield curve control and negative interest rate policy, the BOJ has been gradually scaling back its massive JGB holdings in a bid to exit its decade-long ultra-loose monetary regime. Under the previous plan, the bank was reducing bond purchases by around 400 billion yen (approximately $2.8 billion) per quarter. Now, starting April 2026, the pace will be halved to 200 billion yen per quarter, effectively delaying the target of tapering bond purchases to 2 trillion yen per month until March 2027, as quoted by Reuters. The move marks a significant shift in tone, especially as inflation in Japan remains above the BOJ’s 2 per cent target. Consumer prices rose 3.5 per cent year-on-year in April, driven by surging food costs and sustained wage pressures, Reuters reported. Why slow down now? Two words: global risk. The BOJ’s revised taper plan comes as storm clouds gather over the global economy. An escalating Iran–Israel conflict has triggered fears of energy price shocks, while fresh US trade tariffs on Japanese goods — imposed under President Donald Trump’s new “reciprocal” policy, threaten to derail Japan’s export recovery. In a statement, the BOJ said it would act “nimbly” if long-term interest rates spiked, hinting at readiness to buy more bonds again if market volatility resurfaces, as per Reuters. As Lee Hardman of MUFG noted before the meeting, “The recent softening of the yen could already partly reflect expectations for a cautious policy update from the BOJ… alongside negative spillovers for Japan from the Middle East conflict,” as quoted by Reuters. Bond market turmoil prompts caution The BOJ’s decision follows weeks of volatility in the JGB market. Last month, a weak auction of 20-year bonds sent yields soaring across maturities, with the 40-year JGB yield hitting a record 3.675 per cent. Demand from traditional buyers like insurers has waned, adding to market instability, according to Reuters. With Japan’s debt burden standing at a staggering 250 per cent of GDP, the highest in the developed world — any spike in yields poses significant fiscal risks. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato warned that higher borrowing costs “could further imperil Japan’s finances,” as per Reuters. To calm nerves, the finance ministry is reportedly planning to cut issuance of super-long bonds and may even launch buybacks to contain borrowing costs, Reuters has reported. Domestic pressure vs external shocks While Japan’s economy is seeing inflation, the BOJ is walking a tightrope. On the one hand, persistent cost pressures and labour shortages are prompting firms to raise wages, a potential sign of sustainable inflation. But on the other hand, sluggish exports, Trump’s tariff threats, and war-driven oil volatility threaten to choke off growth. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has admitted that trade talks with the US have not produced a breakthrough, as quoted by Reuters. Carol Kong of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia told AFP that “slowing the bond taper will help keep interest rates lower than otherwise, providing support to the economy amid heightened trade uncertainty.” What’s next? The BOJ said it will conduct an interim review of its fiscal 2026 taper strategy at its policy meeting in June next year. Analysts believe the bank could resume rate hikes later in 2025, if inflation remains sticky and economic growth holds. But until then, the message from Tokyo is clear: caution first. As the world’s third-largest economy battles both internal and external headwinds, the BOJ is in no rush to tighten the screws, especially with a volatile bond market and geopolitical turmoil at its doorstep. (With inputs from the agencies)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is slowing its balance sheet drawdown, maintaining interest rates at 0.5% and reducing Japanese Government Bond (JGB) purchases from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen quarterly starting April 2026.

BOJ keeps rates steady, slows bond taper,  what it means for Japan’s economy?

ChatGPT-maker OpenAI has landed a $200 million contract from the United States Department of Defense&nbsp;to develop cutting-edge artificial intelligence tools for military applications, the Pentagon confirmed on Monday.&nbsp;It is the company’s most high-profile defence contract to date, placing OpenAI, originally a consumer-facing tech firm, at the heart of America’s military–AI transformation.&nbsp;“Under this award, the performer will develop prototype frontier AI capabilities to address critical national security challenges in both warfighting and enterprise domains,” the Pentagon stated.&nbsp;The work will be carried out primarily in and around Washington, with an estimated completion date of July 2026.<h2>Why it matters</h2>The deal underscores Washington’s push to harness frontier AI systems for battlefield readiness, faster intelligence synthesis, and advanced decision-making, as strategic rivalries with China and Russia intensify.&nbsp;It also marks OpenAI’s formal entry into the defence establishment, a major evolution for a company better known for revolutionising education and corporate workflows with tools like ChatGPT and Codex.&nbsp;As of March 2025, OpenAI had 500 million weekly active users. The company said this month that its annualised revenue run rate had surged to $10 billion, on track to meet its 2025 targets amid soaring global AI adoption.<h2>Defence AI gets a Silicon Valley upgrade</h2>The contract follows guidance issued by the White House’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in April, encouraging federal agencies to foster a competitive American AI sector. National security and defence systems were explicitly exempted from the tighter AI oversight — allowing agencies like the Pentagon to move quickly.&nbsp;That exemption is now being leveraged to formalise OpenAI’s military partnership.&nbsp;Reuters has reported that OpenAI is in talks to raise as much as $40 billion in a new funding round led by Japan’s SoftBank, at a $300 billion valuation — underlining investor confidence in its long-term strategic relevance.<h2>The bigger picture</h2>The US military has long experimented with AI through its research arm, DARPA. But this new agreement represents a turning point — where private AI leaders are brought directly into core national security missions.&nbsp;While technical specifics remain classified, the AI tools are expected to support capabilities such as autonomous decision-making, threat detection, secure communications, and multilingual data analysis.&nbsp;The move is likely to be watched closely in Beijing and Moscow, both of whom have ramped up investments in military-grade AI.The Pentagon’s new AI contract is not just about innovation, it’s about preserving a strategic edge in what many now call the AI arms race. (With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

This contract aims to enhance national security capabilities amid rising competition with China and Russia. Work will focus on autonomous decision-making and threat detection, with completion expected by July 2026. 

ChatGPT-maker OpenAI has landed a $200 million contract from the United States Department of Defense to develop cutting-edge artificial intelligence tools for military applications, the Pentagon confirmed on Monday. It is the company’s most high-profile defence contract to date, placing OpenAI, originally a consumer-facing tech firm, at the heart of America’s military–AI transformation. “Under this award, the performer will develop prototype frontier AI capabilities to address critical national security challenges in both warfighting and enterprise domains,” the Pentagon stated. The work will be carried out primarily in and around Washington, with an estimated completion date of July 2026. Why it matters The deal underscores Washington’s push to harness frontier AI systems for battlefield readiness, faster intelligence synthesis, and advanced decision-making, as strategic rivalries with China and Russia intensify. It also marks OpenAI’s formal entry into the defence establishment, a major evolution for a company better known for revolutionising education and corporate workflows with tools like ChatGPT and Codex. As of March 2025, OpenAI had 500 million weekly active users. The company said this month that its annualised revenue run rate had surged to $10 billion, on track to meet its 2025 targets amid soaring global AI adoption. Defence AI gets a Silicon Valley upgrade The contract follows guidance issued by the White House’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) in April, encouraging federal agencies to foster a competitive American AI sector. National security and defence systems were explicitly exempted from the tighter AI oversight — allowing agencies like the Pentagon to move quickly. That exemption is now being leveraged to formalise OpenAI’s military partnership. Reuters has reported that OpenAI is in talks to raise as much as $40 billion in a new funding round led by Japan’s SoftBank, at a $300 billion valuation — underlining investor confidence in its long-term strategic relevance. The bigger picture The US military has long experimented with AI through its research arm, DARPA. But this new agreement represents a turning point — where private AI leaders are brought directly into core national security missions. While technical specifics remain classified, the AI tools are expected to support capabilities such as autonomous decision-making, threat detection, secure communications, and multilingual data analysis. The move is likely to be watched closely in Beijing and Moscow, both of whom have ramped up investments in military-grade AI. The Pentagon’s new AI contract is not just about innovation, it’s about preserving a strategic edge in what many now call the AI arms race. (With inputs from the agencies)

OpenAI has secured a $200 million contract with the U.S. Department of Defense to develop advanced AI tools for military use, marking its entry into defence.

OpenAI bags $200 million Pentagon contract to build AI tools for US military

The Trump Organization has unveiled its latest business venture: a mobile phone service called Trump Mobile and an Android-based smartphone named the T1, priced at $499.&nbsp;Both are set to launch in September and represent the Trump family's most ambitious foray into the consumer electronics and telecommunications sector.The new service, branded “The 47 Plan” in reference to Donald Trump’s position as the 47th US president, will cost $47.45 per month. It offers unlimited calls, texts, and data, in addition to roadside assistance and a “Telehealth and Pharmacy Benefit”.&nbsp;The T1 smartphone, meanwhile, features a gold-coloured casing etched with an American flag and is being marketed as “designed and built in the United States”.This move is the latest in a series of branded consumer products promoted under the Trump name, following Trump-branded sneakers, watches, and fragrances.&nbsp;The family has leveraged Trump's political brand and loyal following to expand their portfolio, with the president reporting over $8 million in licensing income in 2024 alone.<h2>Spec sheet promises high-end features</h2>According to the Trump Organization website, the T1 phone boasts premium features at its sub-$500 price tag. These include a 6.8-inch AMOLED (Active Matrix Organic Light Emitting Diode) display, a 50-megapixel main camera, a 16-megapixel front camera, 12GB of RAM, 256GB of storage (expandable), and a 5,000 mAh battery.&nbsp;The device also includes a headphone jack and an in-display fingerprint sensor, features not available on the latest iPhones.The company claims the T1 will run Android 15 and offer performance on par with top-tier smartphones like Apple’s iPhone 16 Pro Max, which starts at over $1,000. The website also asserts that the mobile plan will use the same coverage as the three nationwide phone service carriers and include a US-based customer support centre.However, several details remain vague, including the identity of the telecom partner enabling the service and the exact specifications of the T1’s processor—a critical component in any modern smartphone.<h2>Built in the USA? Experts raise questions</h2>Perhaps the most contentious claim surrounding the T1 is its manufacturing origin. A Trump Organization press release states that the device is “proudly designed and built in the United States”, with operations in Alabama, California, and Florida. But industry experts widely dispute the feasibility of this assertion.Building a high-end smartphone entirely within the United States is currently considered impractical, if not impossible, due to the lack of necessary supply chain infrastructure.&nbsp;Most components, including AMOLED displays, high-performance chips, and smartphone-grade cameras, are sourced from Asia, particularly China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan.Professor Tinglong Dai of Johns Hopkins University told WSJ that it would take “at least five years” and billions of dollars in investment to build the capabilities necessary to fully manufacture smartphones in the US. He noted that the US currently lacks the factories, workforce skills, and component suppliers needed for end-to-end production.Even Eric Trump admitted during an appearance at Benny Johnson’s podcast, The Benny Show, on June 16 that the first wave of phones may not be built in the US, although he insisted that domestic production was the long-term goal. “Eventually, all the phones can be built in the United States of America,” he said while showcasing the device.<h2>Ethical and political implications</h2>The rollout of Trump Mobile has reignited longstanding concerns over ethics and conflicts of interest surrounding Trump’s continued business ventures while holding public office.&nbsp;Critics argue that the enterprise could allow companies or individuals seeking influence to curry favour by subscribing to the service or purchasing Trump-branded products.The project raises familiar questions about self-enrichment and the use of presidential power for personal profit. Although The Trump Organization has maintained that the service operates under a licensing agreement and is not directly managed by Donald Trump or his affiliates.The wireless plan’s price—$47.45 per month—is notably higher than comparable offerings from competitors like Mint Mobile ($30/month) and Verizon’s Visible service ($25/month), adding further scrutiny to its value proposition.<h2>A niche telecom gamble</h2>The US wireless market is dominated by Verizon, AT&amp;T, and T-Mobile, but smaller virtual network operators have carved out niche audiences by renting bandwidth from these carriers. Mint Mobile, for example, was sold to T-Mobile for $1.35 billion in 2023 after attracting a few million subscribers.Whether Trump Mobile can compete remains to be seen, but analysts agree the venture is designed to appeal to Trump’s politically loyal base. The pre-order campaign is already live, promoting patriotic branding, American-made claims, and service aligned with conservative values.As with many of the Trump Organization’s past branded ventures, success may depend less on product specs and more on the enduring commercial power of the Trump name.

New venture expands Trump-branded business empire into telecom, but ‘Made in USA’ claims face skepticism.

The Trump Organization has unveiled its latest business venture: a mobile phone service called Trump Mobile and an Android-based smartphone named the T1, priced at $499. Both are set to launch in September and represent the Trump family's most ambitious foray into the consumer electronics and telecommunications sector. The new service, branded “The 47 Plan” in reference to Donald Trump’s position as the 47th US president, will cost $47.45 per month. It offers unlimited calls, texts, and data, in addition to roadside assistance and a “Telehealth and Pharmacy Benefit”. The T1 smartphone, meanwhile, features a gold-coloured casing etched with an American flag and is being marketed as “designed and built in the United States”. This move is the latest in a series of branded consumer products promoted under the Trump name, following Trump-branded sneakers, watches, and fragrances. The family has leveraged Trump's political brand and loyal following to expand their portfolio, with the president reporting over $8 million in licensing income in 2024 alone. Spec sheet promises high-end features According to the Trump Organization website, the T1 phone boasts premium features at its sub-$500 price tag. These include a 6.8-inch AMOLED (Active Matrix Organic Light Emitting Diode) display, a 50-megapixel main camera, a 16-megapixel front camera, 12GB of RAM, 256GB of storage (expandable), and a 5,000 mAh battery. The device also includes a headphone jack and an in-display fingerprint sensor, features not available on the latest iPhones. The company claims the T1 will run Android 15 and offer performance on par with top-tier smartphones like Apple’s iPhone 16 Pro Max, which starts at over $1,000. The website also asserts that the mobile plan will use the same coverage as the three nationwide phone service carriers and include a US-based customer support centre. However, several details remain vague, including the identity of the telecom partner enabling the service and the exact specifications of the T1’s processor—a critical component in any modern smartphone. Built in the USA? Experts raise questions Perhaps the most contentious claim surrounding the T1 is its manufacturing origin. A Trump Organization press release states that the device is “proudly designed and built in the United States”, with operations in Alabama, California, and Florida. But industry experts widely dispute the feasibility of this assertion. Building a high-end smartphone entirely within the United States is currently considered impractical, if not impossible, due to the lack of necessary supply chain infrastructure. Most components, including AMOLED displays, high-performance chips, and smartphone-grade cameras, are sourced from Asia, particularly China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan. Professor Tinglong Dai of Johns Hopkins University told WSJ that it would take “at least five years” and billions of dollars in investment to build the capabilities necessary to fully manufacture smartphones in the US. He noted that the US currently lacks the factories, workforce skills, and component suppliers needed for end-to-end production. Even Eric Trump admitted during an appearance at Benny Johnson’s podcast, The Benny Show, on June 16 that the first wave of phones may not be built in the US, although he insisted that domestic production was the long-term goal. “Eventually, all the phones can be built in the United States of America,” he said while showcasing the device. Ethical and political implications The rollout of Trump Mobile has reignited longstanding concerns over ethics and conflicts of interest surrounding Trump’s continued business ventures while holding public office. Critics argue that the enterprise could allow companies or individuals seeking influence to curry favour by subscribing to the service or purchasing Trump-branded products. The project raises familiar questions about self-enrichment and the use of presidential power for personal profit. Although The Trump Organization has maintained that the service operates under a licensing agreement and is not directly managed by Donald Trump or his affiliates. The wireless plan’s price—$47.45 per month—is notably higher than comparable offerings from competitors like Mint Mobile ($30/month) and Verizon’s Visible service ($25/month), adding further scrutiny to its value proposition. A niche telecom gamble The US wireless market is dominated by Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile, but smaller virtual network operators have carved out niche audiences by renting bandwidth from these carriers. Mint Mobile, for example, was sold to T-Mobile for $1.35 billion in 2023 after attracting a few million subscribers. Whether Trump Mobile can compete remains to be seen, but analysts agree the venture is designed to appeal to Trump’s politically loyal base. The pre-order campaign is already live, promoting patriotic branding, American-made claims, and service aligned with conservative values. As with many of the Trump Organization’s past branded ventures, success may depend less on product specs and more on the enduring commercial power of the Trump name.

New venture expands Trump-branded business empire into telecom, but ‘Made in USA’ claims face skepticism.

Trump Organization launches ‘Trump Mobile’ at $499; but can they actually make it in the US?

As global leaders gather for the G7 summit in Canada, one bilateral meeting is drawing outsized attention between US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba.&nbsp;At stake is a potential trade deal that could reshape economic ties between the world’s largest and fourth-largest economies. But with pressure mounting on both sides, the road to an agreement remains fraught.<h2>A handshake, but no breakthrough</h2>On Monday, President Trump and Prime Minister Ishiba met for 30 minutes on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Charlevoix, Alberta, as per the Japanese government. Official images released showed the two leaders smiling, but Tokyo offered no details on the content of their talks.&nbsp;The lack of a public outcome underscores the high stakes and political caution surrounding Japan’s efforts to secure a reprieve from steep US tariffs, especially on automobiles.&nbsp;According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the 25 per cent tariffs imposed by Washington in April 2025 now affect nearly $40 billion worth of Japanese car exports to the US—nearly a fifth of Japan’s total exports to America.<h2>No ‘quick fix’, says Ishiba</h2>Ahead of the summit, Prime Minister Ishiba had set the tone for Japan’s position. Speaking in Tokyo on June 12, he declared that Japan would not be rushed into a “quick fix” trade deal.&nbsp;&nbsp;“If there’s progress before I meet the president, that’s in and of itself good,” he said, as quoted by Bloomberg. “But what’s important is to achieve an agreement that’s beneficial to both Japan and the US. We won’t compromise Japan’s interests by prioritising a quick deal.”&nbsp;The remarks reflect Tokyo’s deep concern over the potential economic fallout from the tariffs. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has warned that the levies could push the nation into a technical recession, particularly as industrial output and consumer spending remain subdued following a sluggish first quarter in 2025.<h2>Rising stakes for Ishiba at home</h2>For Prime Minister Ishiba, the stakes are not just economic—but political. He faces a crucial general election next month, and returning from the G7 without a trade resolution could fuel criticism from opposition parties and industry leaders alike.&nbsp;On June 12, Ishiba met with opposition chiefs in Tokyo, describing the trade standoff as a “national crisis” that required bipartisan unity, as reported by Bloomberg. His government is also dispatching top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa to North America this week in a last-ditch effort to seek exemptions or adjustments to the tariffs.&nbsp;According to Bloomberg, many G7 leaders are seeking last-minute deals with Trump to prevent additional tariffs scheduled to take effect in July, a tactic widely seen as part of Trump’s broader strategy to extract concessions ahead of his re-election bid.<h2>Tariffs rooted in Trump’s ‘national security’ clause</h2>The current standoff was triggered by Trump’s April executive order, which cited national security concerns to justify sweeping tariffs on automotive imports, particularly from Japan.&nbsp;The move revived fears of a trade war reminiscent of earlier US–China clashes. In 2024 alone, Japanese exports to the US totalled over $135 billion, making America Japan’s second-largest trading partner after China, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance.&nbsp;“The auto sector is Japan’s backbone,” noted Noriko Hama, professor of economics at Doshisha University, speaking to Nikkei Asia. “A prolonged tariff regime could ripple through employment, production, and consumption. Japan cannot afford to be seen as conceding too much—but nor can it afford a breakdown in US relations.”<h2>G7 backdrop: Global trade on edge</h2>The G7 summit itself has become a crucible for global trade tensions, with EU and Canadian leaders also pressing Trump to roll back tariffs. The Charlevoix summit is officially focused on economic cooperation and supply chain resilience, but trade friction has dominated the closed-door talks.&nbsp;While no formal US–Japan bilateral was announced, both sides signalled openness to further engagement. “We are not going to negotiate under pressure or media spectacle,” a senior Japanese trade official said, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity. “We seek a rules-based outcome with mutual respect.”&nbsp;Trump, meanwhile, has remained characteristically bullish. Speaking at the summit, he reiterated his commitment to “fairer deals” and called on partners to “open their markets more fully to American goods,” as quoted by Reuters.<h2>Outlook: Calm, but cautiously tense</h2>Despite the smiles at the G7 photo-op, there is little clarity on when or whether a trade deal will emerge. Analysts suggest that Japan may seek to delay any final agreement until after the July tariff deadline, banking on continued diplomatic engagement or a softening of the US stance.&nbsp;However, the clock is ticking. With domestic industry leaders growing anxious and opposition parties sharpening their attacks, the Ishiba government faces a narrowing window to show results.&nbsp;As the G7 wraps up, one thing is clear that the US–Japan trade ties are entering a volatile new phase, one where economics, diplomacy, and political survival are tightly intertwined. &nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

The two leaders met for 30 minutes without achieving a breakthrough, highlighting the complexities of Japan effort to avoid steep US tariffs, especially on automobiles. 

As global leaders gather for the G7 summit in Canada, one bilateral meeting is drawing outsized attention between US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. At stake is a potential trade deal that could reshape economic ties between the world’s largest and fourth-largest economies. But with pressure mounting on both sides, the road to an agreement remains fraught. A handshake, but no breakthrough On Monday, President Trump and Prime Minister Ishiba met for 30 minutes on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Charlevoix, Alberta, as per the Japanese government. Official images released showed the two leaders smiling, but Tokyo offered no details on the content of their talks. The lack of a public outcome underscores the high stakes and political caution surrounding Japan’s efforts to secure a reprieve from steep US tariffs, especially on automobiles. According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the 25 per cent tariffs imposed by Washington in April 2025 now affect nearly $40 billion worth of Japanese car exports to the US—nearly a fifth of Japan’s total exports to America. No ‘quick fix’, says Ishiba Ahead of the summit, Prime Minister Ishiba had set the tone for Japan’s position. Speaking in Tokyo on June 12, he declared that Japan would not be rushed into a “quick fix” trade deal. “If there’s progress before I meet the president, that’s in and of itself good,” he said, as quoted by Bloomberg. “But what’s important is to achieve an agreement that’s beneficial to both Japan and the US. We won’t compromise Japan’s interests by prioritising a quick deal.” The remarks reflect Tokyo’s deep concern over the potential economic fallout from the tariffs. Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) has warned that the levies could push the nation into a technical recession, particularly as industrial output and consumer spending remain subdued following a sluggish first quarter in 2025. Rising stakes for Ishiba at home For Prime Minister Ishiba, the stakes are not just economic—but political. He faces a crucial general election next month, and returning from the G7 without a trade resolution could fuel criticism from opposition parties and industry leaders alike. On June 12, Ishiba met with opposition chiefs in Tokyo, describing the trade standoff as a “national crisis” that required bipartisan unity, as reported by Bloomberg. His government is also dispatching top trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa to North America this week in a last-ditch effort to seek exemptions or adjustments to the tariffs. According to Bloomberg, many G7 leaders are seeking last-minute deals with Trump to prevent additional tariffs scheduled to take effect in July, a tactic widely seen as part of Trump’s broader strategy to extract concessions ahead of his re-election bid. Tariffs rooted in Trump’s ‘national security’ clause The current standoff was triggered by Trump’s April executive order, which cited national security concerns to justify sweeping tariffs on automotive imports, particularly from Japan. The move revived fears of a trade war reminiscent of earlier US–China clashes. In 2024 alone, Japanese exports to the US totalled over $135 billion, making America Japan’s second-largest trading partner after China, according to Japan’s Ministry of Finance. “The auto sector is Japan’s backbone,” noted Noriko Hama, professor of economics at Doshisha University, speaking to Nikkei Asia. “A prolonged tariff regime could ripple through employment, production, and consumption. Japan cannot afford to be seen as conceding too much—but nor can it afford a breakdown in US relations.” G7 backdrop: Global trade on edge The G7 summit itself has become a crucible for global trade tensions, with EU and Canadian leaders also pressing Trump to roll back tariffs. The Charlevoix summit is officially focused on economic cooperation and supply chain resilience, but trade friction has dominated the closed-door talks. While no formal US–Japan bilateral was announced, both sides signalled openness to further engagement. “We are not going to negotiate under pressure or media spectacle,” a senior Japanese trade official said, speaking to Reuters on condition of anonymity. “We seek a rules-based outcome with mutual respect.” Trump, meanwhile, has remained characteristically bullish. Speaking at the summit, he reiterated his commitment to “fairer deals” and called on partners to “open their markets more fully to American goods,” as quoted by Reuters. Outlook: Calm, but cautiously tense Despite the smiles at the G7 photo-op, there is little clarity on when or whether a trade deal will emerge. Analysts suggest that Japan may seek to delay any final agreement until after the July tariff deadline, banking on continued diplomatic engagement or a softening of the US stance. However, the clock is ticking. With domestic industry leaders growing anxious and opposition parties sharpening their attacks, the Ishiba government faces a narrowing window to show results. As the G7 wraps up, one thing is clear that the US–Japan trade ties are entering a volatile new phase, one where economics, diplomacy, and political survival are tightly intertwined. (With inputs from the agencies)

World leaders at the G7 summit in Canada are focusing on a critical bilateral meeting between US President Donald Trump and Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba regarding a potential trade deal impacting their economies.

Japan-US trade tensions escalate at G7: Ishiba holds line as Trump pushes tariff deal

As the US-China trade war deepens, India is rapidly emerging as a significant player in the restructured global trade architecture.&nbsp;Data released by China’s General Administration of Customs on June 10 and India’s Commerce Ministry on June 16 shows a sharp reorientation in international trade routes, with India gaining both as an export destination for Chinese goods and as a key supplier to the United States.While China’s overall exports rose by 4.6 per cent year-on-year in May 2025 to $316.2 billion, its exports to the United States plunged sharply by 34.5 per cent, falling from $44 billion in May 2024 to just $28.8 billion.&nbsp;To offset this decline, China has redirected its export flows toward markets like the European Union (EU) (up 12 per cent to $49.5 billion), ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) (up 15 per cent to $58.4 billion), and India (up 12.4 per cent to $11.13 billion).<h2>India’s imports reveal a shift in composition</h2>India’s trade dynamics reflect the spillover effects of this redirection. Though India’s total merchandise imports marginally dropped by 1.8 per cent year-on-year in May—down from $61.7 billion in May 2024 to $60.6 billion this year—the fall was primarily due to lower imports of oil, gold, and diamonds. Excluding these three categories, imports surged 12 per cent, rising from $36.8 billion to $41.2 billion.The fastest-growing import segments were electronics and machinery. Electronics imports jumped 27.5 per cent to $9.1 billion, while imports of machinery and computer-related equipment rose 22 per cent to $5 billion.&nbsp;Much of this increase came from China and Hong Kong, with combined imports from the two rising 22.4 per cent, from $9.8 billion in May 2024 to $12 billion this May.This rise in imports was also reflected in domestic tax collections. India’s Integrated GST (IGST) revenue on imports surged by 72.9 per cent from ₹24,510 crore ($2.85 billion) in May 2024 to ₹42,370 crore ($4.92 billion) this May.&nbsp;As petroleum products are exempt from GST, the increase is largely attributed to higher import volumes of electronics, machinery, and industrial components.<h2>India’s exports to the US gain momentum</h2>India also benefited on the export side, capitalising on the void created by reduced Chinese shipments to the US. Indian exports to the United States rose by 17.3 per cent year-on-year in May 2025, reaching $8.8 billion.&nbsp;A significant portion of this growth came from electronics, particularly smartphones. Overall, India’s merchandise exports dipped slightly from $39.59 billion in May 2024 to $38.73 billion this year but registered a 54.1 per cent increase in electronics exports at $4.57 billion, partially offsetting the decline in other sectors.Engineering goods remained resilient, with a minor decline of 0.8 per cent in May 2025 compared to the previous year. However, cumulative engineering exports for April–May FY26 stood at $19.40 billion, up 4.7 per cent from the same period last year.<h2>A strategic advantage for India?</h2>The US tariff policy under the Trump administration is playing a critical role in the recent evolution in trade patterns. Washington has recently announced a 55 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, although only part of this constitutes new duties. When excluding pre-existing tariffs, the effective new rate is closer to 30 per cent.&nbsp;In contrast, Indian products face a 26 per cent duty at present, with prospects of this falling further under a potential US-India trade deal expected in July.This tariff differential could give Indian exporters a temporary edge over their Chinese competitors in the American market. However, the volatility of US trade policy, where tariff decisions can change rapidly, adds an element of uncertainty for long-term planning.<h2>Geopolitical risks and trade vulnerabilities</h2>Even as India capitalises on trade realignment, risks persist. Geopolitical tensions in West Asia, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, pose threats to energy security and logistics for Indian exporters.&nbsp;Additionally, concerns over potential dumping by Chinese exporters into alternative markets like India are growing, given China’s push to find new outlets amid restricted access to the US.China’s increasing exports to India, combined with its dominance in critical industrial inputs like electronics, machinery, and rare earth magnets, raise alarms over strategic dependence.&nbsp;Chinese restrictions on rare earths, which are essential for electric vehicles and other high-tech industries, have already triggered disruptions in the US, and similar risks loom for India.The May 2025 trade data reflects a global supply chain in flux, with India both benefiting from and adapting to the new order. While India’s rising exports is a promising sign, the nation must remain alert to new vulnerabilities and balance short-term gains with long-term strategic safeguards.

Sharp shifts in trade flows reflect realignment of global supply chains; surge in India’s imports, exports reveals deeper integration.

As the US-China trade war deepens, India is rapidly emerging as a significant player in the restructured global trade architecture. Data released by China’s General Administration of Customs on June 10 and India’s Commerce Ministry on June 16 shows a sharp reorientation in international trade routes, with India gaining both as an export destination for Chinese goods and as a key supplier to the United States. While China’s overall exports rose by 4.6 per cent year-on-year in May 2025 to $316.2 billion, its exports to the United States plunged sharply by 34.5 per cent, falling from $44 billion in May 2024 to just $28.8 billion. To offset this decline, China has redirected its export flows toward markets like the European Union (EU) (up 12 per cent to $49.5 billion), ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) (up 15 per cent to $58.4 billion), and India (up 12.4 per cent to $11.13 billion). India’s imports reveal a shift in composition India’s trade dynamics reflect the spillover effects of this redirection. Though India’s total merchandise imports marginally dropped by 1.8 per cent year-on-year in May—down from $61.7 billion in May 2024 to $60.6 billion this year—the fall was primarily due to lower imports of oil, gold, and diamonds. Excluding these three categories, imports surged 12 per cent, rising from $36.8 billion to $41.2 billion. The fastest-growing import segments were electronics and machinery. Electronics imports jumped 27.5 per cent to $9.1 billion, while imports of machinery and computer-related equipment rose 22 per cent to $5 billion. Much of this increase came from China and Hong Kong, with combined imports from the two rising 22.4 per cent, from $9.8 billion in May 2024 to $12 billion this May. This rise in imports was also reflected in domestic tax collections. India’s Integrated GST (IGST) revenue on imports surged by 72.9 per cent from ₹24,510 crore ($2.85 billion) in May 2024 to ₹42,370 crore ($4.92 billion) this May. As petroleum products are exempt from GST, the increase is largely attributed to higher import volumes of electronics, machinery, and industrial components. India’s exports to the US gain momentum India also benefited on the export side, capitalising on the void created by reduced Chinese shipments to the US. Indian exports to the United States rose by 17.3 per cent year-on-year in May 2025, reaching $8.8 billion. A significant portion of this growth came from electronics, particularly smartphones. Overall, India’s merchandise exports dipped slightly from $39.59 billion in May 2024 to $38.73 billion this year but registered a 54.1 per cent increase in electronics exports at $4.57 billion, partially offsetting the decline in other sectors. Engineering goods remained resilient, with a minor decline of 0.8 per cent in May 2025 compared to the previous year. However, cumulative engineering exports for April–May FY26 stood at $19.40 billion, up 4.7 per cent from the same period last year. A strategic advantage for India? The US tariff policy under the Trump administration is playing a critical role in the recent evolution in trade patterns. Washington has recently announced a 55 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, although only part of this constitutes new duties. When excluding pre-existing tariffs, the effective new rate is closer to 30 per cent. In contrast, Indian products face a 26 per cent duty at present, with prospects of this falling further under a potential US-India trade deal expected in July. This tariff differential could give Indian exporters a temporary edge over their Chinese competitors in the American market. However, the volatility of US trade policy, where tariff decisions can change rapidly, adds an element of uncertainty for long-term planning. Geopolitical risks and trade vulnerabilities Even as India capitalises on trade realignment, risks persist. Geopolitical tensions in West Asia, especially around the Strait of Hormuz, pose threats to energy security and logistics for Indian exporters. Additionally, concerns over potential dumping by Chinese exporters into alternative markets like India are growing, given China’s push to find new outlets amid restricted access to the US. China’s increasing exports to India, combined with its dominance in critical industrial inputs like electronics, machinery, and rare earth magnets, raise alarms over strategic dependence. Chinese restrictions on rare earths, which are essential for electric vehicles and other high-tech industries, have already triggered disruptions in the US, and similar risks loom for India. The May 2025 trade data reflects a global supply chain in flux, with India both benefiting from and adapting to the new order. While India’s rising exports is a promising sign, the nation must remain alert to new vulnerabilities and balance short-term gains with long-term strategic safeguards.

Sharp shifts in trade flows reflect realignment of global supply chains; surge in India’s imports, exports reveals deeper integration.

India emerges as trade war beneficiary amid US-China rift

Oil prices jumped sharply on Tuesday as fresh explosions rocked Tehran and tensions soared between Iran and Israel, fuelling fears of a wider regional conflict that could disrupt global energy supplies.&nbsp;Brent crude futures climbed $1.17, or 1.6 per cent, to $74.40 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose $1.34, or 1.87 per cent, to $73.11 in early trading, both having risen more than 2 per cent earlier in the session, as quoted by Reuters.&nbsp;The spike reverses Monday’s brief decline, when hopes of diplomatic de-escalation flickered after reports suggested Iran was open to ending hostilities. But those hopes evaporated overnight.<h2>Explosions in Tehran, missiles over Tel Aviv</h2>On the fifth day of the intensifying standoff, Iranian media reported explosions and heavy anti-aircraft fire in central Tehran. Air raid sirens also sounded in Tel Aviv as Israel responded to incoming Iranian missiles.&nbsp;The development comes after an Israeli strike hit Iran’s state broadcaster on Monday. Separately, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog confirmed significant damage to Iran’s largest uranium enrichment plant, raising fears of further retaliation.&nbsp;Iran is the third-largest oil producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and any military escalation could severely affect its crude output.<h2>Trump: ‘Evacuate everyone’ from Tehran</h2>Speaking to reporters on Monday night, US President Donald Trump said the situation was “extremely dangerous” and warned, “Everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately.” He added that Iran had missed a chance to strike a nuclear deal with Washington before hostilities began, but suggested Tehran may now be reconsidering.&nbsp;“If they had signed the deal, we wouldn’t be here,” Trump said. “But they didn’t. And now they want to.”&nbsp;Trump also hinted that easing US sanctions could still be on the table, potentially allowing Iran to ramp up oil exports. Such a scenario would normally put downward pressure on oil prices, but for now, traders are focused on immediate supply disruptions.<h2>OPEC+ sees slowing growth in US oil supply</h2>Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, said on Monday they expect the global economy to remain “resilient” through the second half of 2025. However, the bloc trimmed its 2026 forecast for oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers such as the US and Brazil.&nbsp;The group, which accounts for nearly half the world’s oil output, is closely monitoring the Iran–Israel crisis for signs of a prolonged shock to Middle Eastern production flows.<h2>Market outlook: Volatility ahead</h2>Energy analysts warn that oil prices could rise sharply if fighting spreads or damages critical infrastructure in the Gulf. Iran controls key access points to the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which nearly one-fifth of global oil flows.&nbsp;“Any direct damage to Iranian oil facilities, or attempts to block the Strait, would be a red line for the global market,” said an analyst quoted by Reuters.&nbsp;With the US presidential election looming and the Middle East on edge, the oil market is once again at the mercy of geopolitics, setting the stage for more volatility in the weeks ahead.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies) &nbsp;

US President Donald Trump warned everyone to evacuate Tehran immediately and suggested Iran may reconsider signing a nuclear deal with Washington. 

Oil prices jumped sharply on Tuesday as fresh explosions rocked Tehran and tensions soared between Iran and Israel, fuelling fears of a wider regional conflict that could disrupt global energy supplies. Brent crude futures climbed $1.17, or 1.6 per cent, to $74.40 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate rose $1.34, or 1.87 per cent, to $73.11 in early trading, both having risen more than 2 per cent earlier in the session, as quoted by Reuters. The spike reverses Monday’s brief decline, when hopes of diplomatic de-escalation flickered after reports suggested Iran was open to ending hostilities. But those hopes evaporated overnight. Explosions in Tehran, missiles over Tel Aviv On the fifth day of the intensifying standoff, Iranian media reported explosions and heavy anti-aircraft fire in central Tehran. Air raid sirens also sounded in Tel Aviv as Israel responded to incoming Iranian missiles. The development comes after an Israeli strike hit Iran’s state broadcaster on Monday. Separately, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog confirmed significant damage to Iran’s largest uranium enrichment plant, raising fears of further retaliation. Iran is the third-largest oil producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), and any military escalation could severely affect its crude output. Trump: ‘Evacuate everyone’ from Tehran Speaking to reporters on Monday night, US President Donald Trump said the situation was “extremely dangerous” and warned, “Everyone should evacuate Tehran immediately.” He added that Iran had missed a chance to strike a nuclear deal with Washington before hostilities began, but suggested Tehran may now be reconsidering. “If they had signed the deal, we wouldn’t be here,” Trump said. “But they didn’t. And now they want to.” Trump also hinted that easing US sanctions could still be on the table, potentially allowing Iran to ramp up oil exports. Such a scenario would normally put downward pressure on oil prices, but for now, traders are focused on immediate supply disruptions. OPEC+ sees slowing growth in US oil supply Meanwhile, OPEC and its allies, including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+, said on Monday they expect the global economy to remain “resilient” through the second half of 2025. However, the bloc trimmed its 2026 forecast for oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ producers such as the US and Brazil. The group, which accounts for nearly half the world’s oil output, is closely monitoring the Iran–Israel crisis for signs of a prolonged shock to Middle Eastern production flows. Market outlook: Volatility ahead Energy analysts warn that oil prices could rise sharply if fighting spreads or damages critical infrastructure in the Gulf. Iran controls key access points to the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint through which nearly one-fifth of global oil flows. “Any direct damage to Iranian oil facilities, or attempts to block the Strait, would be a red line for the global market,” said an analyst quoted by Reuters. With the US presidential election looming and the Middle East on edge, the oil market is once again at the mercy of geopolitics, setting the stage for more volatility in the weeks ahead. (With inputs from the agencies)

Oil prices surged on Tuesday due to fresh explosions in Tehran and increased tensions between Iran and Israel.&nbsp;

Oil prices climb amid Iran–Israel escalation, Trump issues evacuation warning

US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have signed off on a long-awaited trade agreement covering aerospace and automobiles but left the future of British steel exports unresolved.&nbsp;The deal was inked on the sidelines of the G7 summit in the Canadian Rockies on Monday. It marks the first bilateral trade pact under Trump’s second term, a pact both leaders hailed as a “sign of strength.”&nbsp;But beyond the smiles and handshakes, the agreement falls short of finality. While Trump declared, “We just signed it, and it’s done,” critical sectors like steel and pharmaceuticals remain mired in negotiations.<h2>Aerospace and autos win big</h2>Under the agreement, the UK aerospace sector will now face zero tariffs from the United States. This is a major victory for British manufacturers like Rolls-Royce, who were facing a proposed 10 per cent levy on exports.&nbsp;The UK auto industry also benefits. Tariffs on British-made cars will drop from 27.5 per cent to 10 per cent, but only for up to 100,000 vehicles per year. Exports above this quota will still be subject to steep US tariffs, as per the UK’s Department for Business and Trade, quoted by Associated Press.&nbsp;&nbsp;“This is a real sign of strength,” Starmer told reporters. “It’s a good day for both our countries.”President Trump praised the agreement too, saying, “The UK is very well protected… because I like them,” as reported by Reuters.<h2>Steel industry in limbo</h2>The most contentious issue, tariffs on British steel and aluminium remains unresolved. Trump had earlier threatened to raise global tariffs to 50 per cent but has kept UK rates at 25 per cent for now.The British government maintains that the plan is still for “0 per cent tariffs on core steel products as agreed,” but Trump’s executive order, issued Monday, introduced uncertainty.&nbsp;The US Commerce Department will now determine the volume of UK steel eligible for tariff-free access. A key sticking point is US concern over Chinese ownership of UK plants—specifically the Jingye Group’s stake in British Steel, as reported by Reuters.&nbsp;The UK had taken control of British Steel in April to prevent a shutdown of the Scunthorpe facility, but Washington still wants assurances that Chinese entities are not using the UK as a backdoor to evade US tariffs.<h2>Trump’s confusion, Starmer’s relief</h2>In a chaotic moment at the summit, Trump mistakenly said the trade agreement was with the European Union, not the UK. “We have our trade agreement with the European Union,” he told reporters, before quickly correcting himself. The slip-up did little to dampen the UK’s sense of diplomatic achievement.&nbsp;For Downing Street, the finalisation of even a partial deal counts as a symbolic win, especially on the global stage. The aerospace sector, one of Britain’s highest-value export industries, now enjoys tariff-free access to the US market.&nbsp;“This deal protects jobs and livelihoods in some of our most vital sectors,” UK Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said. Mike Hawes, CEO of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, called it “great news” for the auto sector.<h2>What’s in the deal?</h2>The agreement removes all US tariffs on UK aerospace exports and imposes a 10 per cent cap on up to 100,000 British car exports annually. It also allows 13,000 metric tonnes of beef to be traded between both countries each year, though the UK will maintain its ban on hormone-treated US beef. Other areas, including steel, aluminium, digital services, and pharmaceuticals, remain under negotiation.&nbsp;The US administration also stressed that any future tariff exemptions will depend on security assurances and transparent ownership across UK supply chains, particularly in sensitive sectors like metals and healthcare.&nbsp;Monday’s signing was less a breakthrough and more a checkpoint. The framework first announced in May had left British businesses uncertain, especially after Trump doubled global metals tariffs earlier this month. The UK was spared that hike, but the reprieve may be temporary.&nbsp;While aerospace and auto manufacturers now have clarity, steel producers remain in limbo. And with Trump’s nationalist rhetoric intensifying ahead of the November election, the durability of this deal is far from guaranteed.&nbsp;More rounds of negotiation are expected in the weeks ahead, but for now, Trump’s personal diplomacy and Starmer’s soft-spoken strategy have delivered a limited, but politically symbolic win. &nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies) &nbsp;

 While Trump declared, “We just signed it, and it’s done,” critical sectors like steel and pharmaceuticals remain mired in negotiations.

US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer have signed off on a long-awaited trade agreement covering aerospace and automobiles but left the future of British steel exports unresolved. The deal was inked on the sidelines of the G7 summit in the Canadian Rockies on Monday. It marks the first bilateral trade pact under Trump’s second term, a pact both leaders hailed as a “sign of strength.” But beyond the smiles and handshakes, the agreement falls short of finality. While Trump declared, “We just signed it, and it’s done,” critical sectors like steel and pharmaceuticals remain mired in negotiations. Aerospace and autos win big Under the agreement, the UK aerospace sector will now face zero tariffs from the United States. This is a major victory for British manufacturers like Rolls-Royce, who were facing a proposed 10 per cent levy on exports. The UK auto industry also benefits. Tariffs on British-made cars will drop from 27.5 per cent to 10 per cent, but only for up to 100,000 vehicles per year. Exports above this quota will still be subject to steep US tariffs, as per the UK’s Department for Business and Trade, quoted by Associated Press. “This is a real sign of strength,” Starmer told reporters. “It’s a good day for both our countries.” President Trump praised the agreement too, saying, “The UK is very well protected… because I like them,” as reported by Reuters. Steel industry in limbo The most contentious issue, tariffs on British steel and aluminium remains unresolved. Trump had earlier threatened to raise global tariffs to 50 per cent but has kept UK rates at 25 per cent for now. The British government maintains that the plan is still for “0 per cent tariffs on core steel products as agreed,” but Trump’s executive order, issued Monday, introduced uncertainty. The US Commerce Department will now determine the volume of UK steel eligible for tariff-free access. A key sticking point is US concern over Chinese ownership of UK plants—specifically the Jingye Group’s stake in British Steel, as reported by Reuters. The UK had taken control of British Steel in April to prevent a shutdown of the Scunthorpe facility, but Washington still wants assurances that Chinese entities are not using the UK as a backdoor to evade US tariffs. Trump’s confusion, Starmer’s relief In a chaotic moment at the summit, Trump mistakenly said the trade agreement was with the European Union, not the UK. “We have our trade agreement with the European Union,” he told reporters, before quickly correcting himself. The slip-up did little to dampen the UK’s sense of diplomatic achievement. For Downing Street, the finalisation of even a partial deal counts as a symbolic win, especially on the global stage. The aerospace sector, one of Britain’s highest-value export industries, now enjoys tariff-free access to the US market. “This deal protects jobs and livelihoods in some of our most vital sectors,” UK Trade Secretary Jonathan Reynolds said. Mike Hawes, CEO of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, called it “great news” for the auto sector. What’s in the deal? The agreement removes all US tariffs on UK aerospace exports and imposes a 10 per cent cap on up to 100,000 British car exports annually. It also allows 13,000 metric tonnes of beef to be traded between both countries each year, though the UK will maintain its ban on hormone-treated US beef. Other areas, including steel, aluminium, digital services, and pharmaceuticals, remain under negotiation. The US administration also stressed that any future tariff exemptions will depend on security assurances and transparent ownership across UK supply chains, particularly in sensitive sectors like metals and healthcare. Monday’s signing was less a breakthrough and more a checkpoint. The framework first announced in May had left British businesses uncertain, especially after Trump doubled global metals tariffs earlier this month. The UK was spared that hike, but the reprieve may be temporary. While aerospace and auto manufacturers now have clarity, steel producers remain in limbo. And with Trump’s nationalist rhetoric intensifying ahead of the November election, the durability of this deal is far from guaranteed. More rounds of negotiation are expected in the weeks ahead, but for now, Trump’s personal diplomacy and Starmer’s soft-spoken strategy have delivered a limited, but politically symbolic win. (With inputs from the agencies)

US and UK sign trade pact easing tariffs on aerospace and cars, but British steel exports remain in limbo amid ongoing negotiations and political tensions.

Trump signs US–UK trade deal at G7, says Britain ‘protected because I like them’

Meta has officially confirmed its first major monetisation move for WhatsApp: the platform will begin showing advertisements in the Status and Channels sections, alongside offering optional paid subscriptions to enhance discovery and reach.&nbsp;&nbsp;The update, unveiled on June 16, marks a significant shift for WhatsApp, which has long resisted traditional advertising.&nbsp;Since its acquisition by Meta in 2014, WhatsApp has largely steered clear of traditional advertising formats, in contrast to sister platforms like Facebook and Instagram.&nbsp;While private messages will remain ad-free and encrypted, users may start seeing ads as they tap through Status updates — WhatsApp’s equivalent of Instagram Stories — and in public Channels. Businesses and creators who opt for the subscription model will gain visibility advantages in search and recommendations.&nbsp;Meta says the step is designed to help creators and brands grow, and provide users with better discovery tools. The company plans to roll out these features gradually across select markets.&nbsp;In a select media briefing, the company said that for users who only use WhatsApp to chat with friends and family, there will be no change. To show ads in Status and Channels, the platform will share minimal information such as the user’s country or city, language, and the Channels they follow.&nbsp;Alice Newton-Rex, Vice-President, Product at WhatsApp, said the platform will never share or sell users’ phone numbers to advertisers. Personal messages, calls and group conversations will continue to be encrypted.&nbsp;“We are increasingly seeing and hearing people wanting to use WhatsApp for more than just messaging close friends and family. That’s part of the reason we introduced the ‘Updates’ tab as a place for optional experiences on WhatsApp like Channels and Status. Almost 1.5 billion people globally use Updates daily. It’s often where people go when they are looking to discover something new,” said Newton-Rex. The new features will roll out gradually over the next few months.&nbsp;WhatsApp stressed that messages, calls, and groups will remain end-to-end encrypted, maintaining the platform’s core privacy proposition.

Meta turns to WhatsApp for revenue, introduces ads and premium features. All you need to know

Meta has officially confirmed its first major monetisation move for WhatsApp: the platform will begin showing advertisements in the Status and Channels sections, alongside offering optional paid subscriptions to enhance discovery and reach. The update, unveiled on June 16, marks a significant shift for WhatsApp, which has long resisted traditional advertising. Since its acquisition by Meta in 2014, WhatsApp has largely steered clear of traditional advertising formats, in contrast to sister platforms like Facebook and Instagram. While private messages will remain ad-free and encrypted, users may start seeing ads as they tap through Status updates — WhatsApp’s equivalent of Instagram Stories — and in public Channels. Businesses and creators who opt for the subscription model will gain visibility advantages in search and recommendations. Meta says the step is designed to help creators and brands grow, and provide users with better discovery tools. The company plans to roll out these features gradually across select markets. In a select media briefing, the company said that for users who only use WhatsApp to chat with friends and family, there will be no change. To show ads in Status and Channels, the platform will share minimal information such as the user’s country or city, language, and the Channels they follow. Alice Newton-Rex, Vice-President, Product at WhatsApp, said the platform will never share or sell users’ phone numbers to advertisers. Personal messages, calls and group conversations will continue to be encrypted. “We are increasingly seeing and hearing people wanting to use WhatsApp for more than just messaging close friends and family. That’s part of the reason we introduced the ‘Updates’ tab as a place for optional experiences on WhatsApp like Channels and Status. Almost 1.5 billion people globally use Updates daily. It’s often where people go when they are looking to discover something new,” said Newton-Rex. The new features will roll out gradually over the next few months. WhatsApp stressed that messages, calls, and groups will remain end-to-end encrypted, maintaining the platform’s core privacy proposition.

The Meta-owned messaging service will begin rolling out new monetisation tools within its Updates tab

At the 2025 Paris Air Show, AviLease, a global aircraft leasing firm based in Saudi Arabia, made a major move to expand its fleet with an order for 10 Airbus A350 freighters and 30 A320neo Family aircraft.&nbsp;The deal, valued at approximately $3.5 billion, marks a significant step for the leasing company, with the possibility of expanding to 22 A350 freighters and 55 A320neo aircraft in the future.<h2>Strategic partnership with Airbus</h2>AviLease’s commitment to acquiring state-of-the-art aircraft highlights its strategy of offering modern, fuel-efficient solutions to airlines worldwide. The partnership with Airbus is expected to further enhance AviLease’s position as a leading, full-service, investment-grade lessor.“We are proud to establish an Airbus order book,” said Edward O’Byrne, CEO of AviLease. “The addition of these aircraft strengthens our ability to provide fuel-efficient fleet solutions to our airline partners in Saudi Arabia and globally.”Airbus, for its part, expressed satisfaction in securing the order, with Benoît de Saint-Exupéry, Executive Vice President of Airbus Commercial Aircraft, noting the strong appeal of the A350 freighter and the A320neo Family, which continues to dominate the global market for single-aisle aircraft.<h2>The A350 freighter: A game changer in air cargo</h2>The A350F freighter, a key element in AviLease’s order, promises to set new benchmarks in air cargo operations. Offering a 20% reduction in fuel burn, improved loading capacity, and extended range, the A350F is designed with advanced materials to reduce weight and meet future environmental standards.&nbsp;The aircraft is also the only freighter capable of fully meeting the ICAO’s enhanced CO₂ emissions standards, set to come into effect in 2027.<h2>A320neo: Fuel efficiency meets high demand</h2>The A320neo, already the world’s best-selling single-aisle aircraft, incorporates next-generation engines, Sharklets, and advanced cabin efficiencies, together delivering up to 20% fuel savings. This makes the A320neo a popular choice for lessors like AviLease looking to provide efficient, cost-effective solutions to airlines globally.<h2>Riyadh Air’s bold step with Airbus A350-1000</h2>In a related development, Riyadh Air, a Saudi carrier backed by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), also made headlines at the Paris Air Show with a massive order for 25 Airbus A350-1000 aircraft. This order, which could extend to 50 aircraft, underscores the airline’s ambition to become a key global player under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030.&nbsp;The A350-1000, known for its efficiency and long-range capabilities, will be a cornerstone of Riyadh Air’s strategy to offer premium international services and further solidify Saudi Arabia’s position as a global aviation hub.<h2>Global market impact and future orders</h2>The success of both AviLease and Riyadh Air’s agreements highlights the growing confidence in Airbus's latest-generation aircraft. The Airbus A350 Family has now garnered over 1,390 orders worldwide, cementing its position as a key player in the long-haul and air cargo markets.Beyond the major orders from Saudi Arabia, Airbus is reportedly nearing additional agreements, including a potential deal with LOT Polish Airlines for 40 A220s and a possible order from AirAsia. These moves further demonstrate the robust demand for modern, fuel-efficient aircraft in the face of rising global air travel.

The partnership with Airbus is expected to further enhance AviLease’s position as a leading, full-service, investment-grade lessor.

At the 2025 Paris Air Show, AviLease, a global aircraft leasing firm based in Saudi Arabia, made a major move to expand its fleet with an order for 10 Airbus A350 freighters and 30 A320neo Family aircraft. The deal, valued at approximately $3.5 billion, marks a significant step for the leasing company, with the possibility of expanding to 22 A350 freighters and 55 A320neo aircraft in the future. Strategic partnership with Airbus AviLease’s commitment to acquiring state-of-the-art aircraft highlights its strategy of offering modern, fuel-efficient solutions to airlines worldwide. The partnership with Airbus is expected to further enhance AviLease’s position as a leading, full-service, investment-grade lessor. “We are proud to establish an Airbus order book,” said Edward O’Byrne, CEO of AviLease. “The addition of these aircraft strengthens our ability to provide fuel-efficient fleet solutions to our airline partners in Saudi Arabia and globally.” Airbus, for its part, expressed satisfaction in securing the order, with Benoît de Saint-Exupéry, Executive Vice President of Airbus Commercial Aircraft, noting the strong appeal of the A350 freighter and the A320neo Family, which continues to dominate the global market for single-aisle aircraft. The A350 freighter: A game changer in air cargo The A350F freighter, a key element in AviLease’s order, promises to set new benchmarks in air cargo operations. Offering a 20% reduction in fuel burn, improved loading capacity, and extended range, the A350F is designed with advanced materials to reduce weight and meet future environmental standards. The aircraft is also the only freighter capable of fully meeting the ICAO’s enhanced CO₂ emissions standards, set to come into effect in 2027. A320neo: Fuel efficiency meets high demand The A320neo, already the world’s best-selling single-aisle aircraft, incorporates next-generation engines, Sharklets, and advanced cabin efficiencies, together delivering up to 20% fuel savings. This makes the A320neo a popular choice for lessors like AviLease looking to provide efficient, cost-effective solutions to airlines globally. Riyadh Air’s bold step with Airbus A350-1000 In a related development, Riyadh Air, a Saudi carrier backed by the Public Investment Fund (PIF), also made headlines at the Paris Air Show with a massive order for 25 Airbus A350-1000 aircraft. This order, which could extend to 50 aircraft, underscores the airline’s ambition to become a key global player under Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030. The A350-1000, known for its efficiency and long-range capabilities, will be a cornerstone of Riyadh Air’s strategy to offer premium international services and further solidify Saudi Arabia’s position as a global aviation hub. Global market impact and future orders The success of both AviLease and Riyadh Air’s agreements highlights the growing confidence in Airbus's latest-generation aircraft. The Airbus A350 Family has now garnered over 1,390 orders worldwide, cementing its position as a key player in the long-haul and air cargo markets. Beyond the major orders from Saudi Arabia, Airbus is reportedly nearing additional agreements, including a potential deal with LOT Polish Airlines for 40 A220s and a possible order from AirAsia. These moves further demonstrate the robust demand for modern, fuel-efficient aircraft in the face of rising global air travel.

The partnership with Airbus is expected to further enhance AviLease’s position as a leading, full-service, investment-grade lessor.

AviLease strengthens global fleet with $3.5 billion Airbus order

India’s wholesale inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), dropped to a 14-month low of 0.39 per cent in May 2025, down from 0.85 per cent in April, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on June 16.&nbsp;This marks the third consecutive month of declining wholesale inflation, primarily driven by slowing demand and moderating food prices, with prices of key kitchen staples such as vegetables, pulses, and potatoes falling sharply.<h2>Food prices lead the decline</h2>The significant deceleration in food inflation was the major factor contributing to the decline in overall WPI. Food inflation fell to 1.72 per cent in May, down from 2.55 per cent in April. This was largely due to a sharp decline in vegetable prices, which contracted by 21.62 per cent compared to 18.26 per cent in the previous month.&nbsp;Other food items such as onions and potatoes also saw considerable price reductions, with onion inflation easing to 14.41 per cent in May from 0.20 per cent in April and potato inflation plunging by 29.42 per cent. This is indicative of easing demand pressures, rather than supply shortages or disruptions.Notably, protein-rich food items like eggs, meat, and fish saw a price decline of 1.01 per cent, marking the second consecutive month of deflation in this category. However, the prices of fruits (up 10.17 per cent) and milk (up 2.66 per cent) continued to rise, pointing to mixed trends within the broader food category.<h2>Fuel and power prices continue to fall</h2>The fuel and power segment, which has a significant impact on inflation, also saw a continued fall in prices. Fuel and power inflation contracted by 2.27 per cent in May, slightly worse than the 2.18 per cent drop in April.&nbsp;The decline was largely driven by lower mineral oil prices, with petrol prices falling by 8.5 per cent and high-speed diesel prices by 5.61 per cent. However, the price of cooking gas rose by 0.25 per cent, reflecting volatility in global energy markets.<h2>Manufactured products show slower price growth</h2>Inflation in manufactured products, which makes up the largest portion of the WPI basket, slowed to 2.04 per cent in May from 2.62 per cent in April. The deceleration in this category is further evidence of softening demand across the economy.&nbsp;Key categories such as food products, basic metals, rubber and plastics, and chemical products saw price reductions, while certain sectors, including pharmaceuticals, electronics, and textiles, recorded price increases.<h2>Declining inflation reflects weak demand</h2>The overall trend of falling wholesale inflation can be attributed to weakening demand across key sectors, rather than any major supply disruptions or shortages. This is evident from the broader cooling seen in both food and non-food items.&nbsp;While inflation in primary articles declined by 2.02 per cent year-on-year, the deceleration in prices was not driven by any major disruptions in supply chains but rather by weaker demand pressures.This cooling in wholesale inflation follows the same trend seen in retail inflation, which eased to a 75-month low of 2.82 per cent in May, largely due to the decline in food prices. With inflation remaining subdued, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has room to continue its accommodative monetary policy.&nbsp;In fact, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent, signalling that it expects the low inflation environment to persist.<h2>RBI’s outlook and future expectations</h2>The cooling of both wholesale and retail inflation suggests that the RBI could take further steps to ease monetary policy in the second half of 2025, supporting economic growth while keeping inflation under control.&nbsp;The central bank has already lowered its inflation forecast for FY26 to 3.7 per cent, from an earlier projection of 4 per cent, in light of the ongoing disinflationary trends.Economists also point out that as food inflation continues to ease, the country may see further benefits from a favourable monsoon season and improved agricultural output. However, risks remain in the form of global volatility and unpredictable weather patterns, which could affect inflation trends in the coming months.The latest WPI data underscores a broader trend of falling inflation driven by slowing demand rather than supply-side factors. With food prices and fuel costs continuing their decline, India’s wholesale inflation outlook remains subdued, providing the RBI with the flexibility to maintain its policy stance and support economic recovery in the months ahead.

This is the third consecutive month of declining wholesale inflation, primarily driven by slowing demand and moderating food prices, with prices of key kitchen staples such as vegetables, pulses, and potatoes falling sharply.

India’s wholesale inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), dropped to a 14-month low of 0.39 per cent in May 2025, down from 0.85 per cent in April, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on June 16. This marks the third consecutive month of declining wholesale inflation, primarily driven by slowing demand and moderating food prices, with prices of key kitchen staples such as vegetables, pulses, and potatoes falling sharply. Food prices lead the decline The significant deceleration in food inflation was the major factor contributing to the decline in overall WPI. Food inflation fell to 1.72 per cent in May, down from 2.55 per cent in April. This was largely due to a sharp decline in vegetable prices, which contracted by 21.62 per cent compared to 18.26 per cent in the previous month. Other food items such as onions and potatoes also saw considerable price reductions, with onion inflation easing to 14.41 per cent in May from 0.20 per cent in April and potato inflation plunging by 29.42 per cent. This is indicative of easing demand pressures, rather than supply shortages or disruptions. Notably, protein-rich food items like eggs, meat, and fish saw a price decline of 1.01 per cent, marking the second consecutive month of deflation in this category. However, the prices of fruits (up 10.17 per cent) and milk (up 2.66 per cent) continued to rise, pointing to mixed trends within the broader food category. Fuel and power prices continue to fall The fuel and power segment, which has a significant impact on inflation, also saw a continued fall in prices. Fuel and power inflation contracted by 2.27 per cent in May, slightly worse than the 2.18 per cent drop in April. The decline was largely driven by lower mineral oil prices, with petrol prices falling by 8.5 per cent and high-speed diesel prices by 5.61 per cent. However, the price of cooking gas rose by 0.25 per cent, reflecting volatility in global energy markets. Manufactured products show slower price growth Inflation in manufactured products, which makes up the largest portion of the WPI basket, slowed to 2.04 per cent in May from 2.62 per cent in April. The deceleration in this category is further evidence of softening demand across the economy. Key categories such as food products, basic metals, rubber and plastics, and chemical products saw price reductions, while certain sectors, including pharmaceuticals, electronics, and textiles, recorded price increases. Declining inflation reflects weak demand The overall trend of falling wholesale inflation can be attributed to weakening demand across key sectors, rather than any major supply disruptions or shortages. This is evident from the broader cooling seen in both food and non-food items. While inflation in primary articles declined by 2.02 per cent year-on-year, the deceleration in prices was not driven by any major disruptions in supply chains but rather by weaker demand pressures. This cooling in wholesale inflation follows the same trend seen in retail inflation, which eased to a 75-month low of 2.82 per cent in May, largely due to the decline in food prices. With inflation remaining subdued, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has room to continue its accommodative monetary policy. In fact, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent, signalling that it expects the low inflation environment to persist. RBI’s outlook and future expectations The cooling of both wholesale and retail inflation suggests that the RBI could take further steps to ease monetary policy in the second half of 2025, supporting economic growth while keeping inflation under control. The central bank has already lowered its inflation forecast for FY26 to 3.7 per cent, from an earlier projection of 4 per cent, in light of the ongoing disinflationary trends. Economists also point out that as food inflation continues to ease, the country may see further benefits from a favourable monsoon season and improved agricultural output. However, risks remain in the form of global volatility and unpredictable weather patterns, which could affect inflation trends in the coming months. The latest WPI data underscores a broader trend of falling inflation driven by slowing demand rather than supply-side factors. With food prices and fuel costs continuing their decline, India’s wholesale inflation outlook remains subdued, providing the RBI with the flexibility to maintain its policy stance and support economic recovery in the months ahead.

This is the third consecutive month of declining wholesale inflation, primarily driven by slowing demand and moderating food prices, with prices of key kitchen staples such as vegetables, pulses, and potatoes falling sharply.

India’s wholesale inflation eases to 14-month low in May, driven by slowing demand

The Indian rupee is under considerable pressure as tensions in West Asia escalate, particularly with the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. This has led to a surge in global crude oil prices, which are now trading above $83 per barrel. As India is a major oil importer, rising oil prices directly affect the rupee’s value and exacerbate inflation concerns.In early trade on June 16, the rupee fell 6 paise to 86.17 against the US dollar, reflecting the broader market’s reaction to the geopolitical turmoil. Analysts attribute the rupee’s decline to not just the rising oil prices but also to a strong US dollar and outflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs).&nbsp;The geopolitical uncertainties, combined with the surge in oil prices, are putting further pressure on India’s currency, which had already been struggling due to global economic factors.<h2>Crude prices: A key factor for the rupee</h2>The sharp rise in crude oil prices, driven by escalating tensions in West Asia, has become a major concern for the Indian economy. Oil prices surged nearly 13 per cent in a short span, and this is having a direct impact on the Indian rupee, a currency that is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices due to India’s reliance on crude imports.Kranthi Bathini, equity strategist at WealthMills Securities, told Moneycontrol that a sustained rise in oil prices could disrupt India’s inflation trajectory, which had recently been helped by a six-year low in consumer price inflation (CPI) at 2.8 per cent in May.&nbsp;A surge in oil prices could cause inflation to pick up again, forcing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to reassess its accommodative stance on interest rates. A more hawkish RBI stance could further weigh on the rupee, making it more expensive for importers and affecting India’s trade balance.<h2>Forex reserves provide some cushion</h2>Despite the rupee’s decline, there is some positive news. India’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $5.17 billion, reaching $696.65 billion for the week ending June 6.&nbsp;This rise in reserves provides a cushion for the rupee and could help the RBI manage the currency’s volatility in the short term. However, the overall outlook for the rupee remains cautious, with the geopolitical situation adding to the uncertainty.The RBI's ability to manage forex reserves effectively will be crucial if the tensions in the region persist and oil prices continue to rise. Analysts suggest that while the reserves offer some stability, India’s heavy dependence on oil imports means that any sustained spike in crude prices could be problematic for the rupee.<h2>Long-term outlook for the rupee and Indian markets</h2>Looking ahead, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the rupee’s recovery in the medium term. Some expect the rupee to strengthen to 84 against the dollar by the October-December quarter, citing low domestic inflation and a manageable trade deficit. However, much of this outlook depends on how the geopolitical situation evolves and the movement of crude prices in the coming weeks.The current volatility in the rupee, triggered by the Israel-Iran conflict and the surge in oil prices, has led to a wait-and-watch approach from investors.&nbsp;Bathini told Moneycontrol that the market is adopting a cautious stance amid the uncertainty, with a particular focus on how crude prices will impact India’s inflation and economic growth. A sustained rise in oil prices could push inflation higher, forcing the RBI to adjust its policies.Despite the short-term challenges, Indian equities could offer opportunities for long-term investors if the rupee stabilises and geopolitical tensions subside.&nbsp;Some sectors, such as defence, infrastructure, and banking, are still seen as attractive due to their growth potential, regardless of the current market volatility. Bathini believes that any correction in the markets, triggered by the ongoing geopolitical risks, could present a good entry point for medium- to long-term investors.While the rupee faces pressure in the short term due to rising oil prices and geopolitical instability, the Indian economy’s fundamentals and forex reserves provide some resilience. Investors are advised to monitor the evolving geopolitical situation closely, as it will be key to determining the rupee’s trajectory in the coming months.

In early trade on June 16, the rupee fell 6 paise to 86.17 against the US dollar, reflecting the broader market’s reaction to the geopolitical turmoil.

The Indian rupee is under considerable pressure as tensions in West Asia escalate, particularly with the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. This has led to a surge in global crude oil prices, which are now trading above $83 per barrel. As India is a major oil importer, rising oil prices directly affect the rupee’s value and exacerbate inflation concerns. In early trade on June 16, the rupee fell 6 paise to 86.17 against the US dollar, reflecting the broader market’s reaction to the geopolitical turmoil. Analysts attribute the rupee’s decline to not just the rising oil prices but also to a strong US dollar and outflows from foreign institutional investors (FIIs). The geopolitical uncertainties, combined with the surge in oil prices, are putting further pressure on India’s currency, which had already been struggling due to global economic factors. Crude prices: A key factor for the rupee The sharp rise in crude oil prices, driven by escalating tensions in West Asia, has become a major concern for the Indian economy. Oil prices surged nearly 13 per cent in a short span, and this is having a direct impact on the Indian rupee, a currency that is particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in oil prices due to India’s reliance on crude imports. Kranthi Bathini, equity strategist at WealthMills Securities, told Moneycontrol that a sustained rise in oil prices could disrupt India’s inflation trajectory, which had recently been helped by a six-year low in consumer price inflation (CPI) at 2.8 per cent in May. A surge in oil prices could cause inflation to pick up again, forcing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to reassess its accommodative stance on interest rates. A more hawkish RBI stance could further weigh on the rupee, making it more expensive for importers and affecting India’s trade balance. Forex reserves provide some cushion Despite the rupee’s decline, there is some positive news. India’s foreign exchange reserves increased by $5.17 billion, reaching $696.65 billion for the week ending June 6. This rise in reserves provides a cushion for the rupee and could help the RBI manage the currency’s volatility in the short term. However, the overall outlook for the rupee remains cautious, with the geopolitical situation adding to the uncertainty. The RBI's ability to manage forex reserves effectively will be crucial if the tensions in the region persist and oil prices continue to rise. Analysts suggest that while the reserves offer some stability, India’s heavy dependence on oil imports means that any sustained spike in crude prices could be problematic for the rupee. Long-term outlook for the rupee and Indian markets Looking ahead, analysts remain cautiously optimistic about the rupee’s recovery in the medium term. Some expect the rupee to strengthen to 84 against the dollar by the October-December quarter, citing low domestic inflation and a manageable trade deficit. However, much of this outlook depends on how the geopolitical situation evolves and the movement of crude prices in the coming weeks. The current volatility in the rupee, triggered by the Israel-Iran conflict and the surge in oil prices, has led to a wait-and-watch approach from investors. Bathini told Moneycontrol that the market is adopting a cautious stance amid the uncertainty, with a particular focus on how crude prices will impact India’s inflation and economic growth. A sustained rise in oil prices could push inflation higher, forcing the RBI to adjust its policies. Despite the short-term challenges, Indian equities could offer opportunities for long-term investors if the rupee stabilises and geopolitical tensions subside. Some sectors, such as defence, infrastructure, and banking, are still seen as attractive due to their growth potential, regardless of the current market volatility. Bathini believes that any correction in the markets, triggered by the ongoing geopolitical risks, could present a good entry point for medium- to long-term investors. While the rupee faces pressure in the short term due to rising oil prices and geopolitical instability, the Indian economy’s fundamentals and forex reserves provide some resilience. Investors are advised to monitor the evolving geopolitical situation closely, as it will be key to determining the rupee’s trajectory in the coming months.

In early trade on June 16, the rupee fell 6 paise to 86.17 against the US dollar, reflecting the broader market’s reaction to the geopolitical turmoil.

Rupee faces pressure amid rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions

China’s consumer spending continues to struggle as the country’s economic recovery remains slow and uncertain. Despite a brief uptick in retail sales for May, analysts warn that the underlying issues driving subdued demand, such as stagnant income growth, a lack of social safety nets, and shifting consumer preferences, are unlikely to subside soon.In recent months, China has witnessed four consecutive months of declining consumer prices, coupled with persistently low consumer confidence.&nbsp;CNBC reported that disposable income growth has halved since the pandemic, now growing at a mere 5 per cent annually, according to Jeremy Stevens, an Asia economist at Standard Bank. This stagnation in income, combined with high youth unemployment and a struggling real estate market, continues to dampen consumer sentiment.A survey conducted by the People’s Bank of China in the third quarter of 2024 found that 64 per cent of Chinese households would rather save than spend, a trend that has been persistent since late 2023. This preference for saving, exacerbated by a limited social safety net, has made it difficult for the government to spur long-term consumer spending.<h2>May retail sales boosted by subsidies and promotions</h2>Despite these ongoing challenges, China’s retail sector experienced a welcome boost in May, with sales growing 6.4 per cent year-on-year, sharply surpassing analysts' expectations of a 5 per cent increase.&nbsp;This surge was partly attributed to the government’s ongoing consumer goods trade-in programme, which incentivised spending, along with a surge in online shopping during the “618” e-commerce event and a rise in foreign tourists following the expansion of China’s visa-free entry list.While the spike in retail sales was encouraging, experts caution that it may not signal a sustainable recovery. Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that the rising sales were a short-term benefit, with falling property prices potentially hurting long-term consumer confidence.&nbsp;According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), property investment continues to contract, dragging down overall economic momentum.<h2>China's labour market struggles</h2>The weak consumer sentiment is closely linked to ongoing challenges in the Chinese labour market. Unemployment among young people aged 16 to 24 stood at a record 15.8 per cent in April, while the official urban unemployment rate hovered around 5 per cent.&nbsp;These figures highlight the lack of wage growth and the challenges posed by an uncertain job market, especially in sectors impacted by US tariffs.Additionally, a recent survey showed that over 60 per cent of respondents favoured saving over spending, indicating that uncertainty about the future and concerns over financial stability continue to weigh heavily on consumers’ minds.&nbsp;Many Chinese citizens also face high out-of-pocket costs for healthcare, education, and retirement, contributing to their reluctance to spend.<h2>Government's efforts to spur consumption</h2>In response to these challenges, Chinese authorities have introduced several measures aimed at stimulating consumption. These include boosting subsidies for consumer goods and expanding the availability of public holidays and services sector consumption vouchers.&nbsp;However, unlike the mass cash handouts in the US and Hong Kong post-pandemic, China has refrained from large-scale financial stimulus, opting instead for more targeted support.Analysts, however, warn that these efforts may not be enough to drive sustained recovery. The consumer sector remains under pressure, with deflationary trends continuing in consumer prices and deeper declines in factory-gate prices.&nbsp;Moreover, many local governments have already paused their consumer goods trade-in programmes as initial subsidies have been exhausted.<h2>A short-term recovery or a long-term struggle?</h2>Despite the May sales surge, the outlook for China’s consumer market remains uncertain. While export growth has remained resilient, particularly to Southeast Asia, the EU, and Africa, domestic demand continues to lag.&nbsp;The ongoing property slump, tightening job market, and economic uncertainty suggest that China may face a prolonged period of weak consumer spending.Some analysts are hopeful that additional fiscal measures may come in the latter half of 2024 if growth continues to falter. However, without stronger demand-side stimulus, many predict that any recovery in consumer spending will be short-lived.China’s economic trajectory will ultimately depend on how effectively it addresses the persistent structural challenges in its labour market and real estate sector. For now, though, the country’s consumer sector faces a challenging road ahead.

Despite a brief uptick in retail sales for May, analysts warn that the underlying issues driving subdued demand, such as stagnant income growth, a lack of social safety nets, and shifting consumer preferences, are unlikely to subside soon.

China’s consumer spending continues to struggle as the country’s economic recovery remains slow and uncertain. Despite a brief uptick in retail sales for May, analysts warn that the underlying issues driving subdued demand, such as stagnant income growth, a lack of social safety nets, and shifting consumer preferences, are unlikely to subside soon. In recent months, China has witnessed four consecutive months of declining consumer prices, coupled with persistently low consumer confidence. CNBC reported that disposable income growth has halved since the pandemic, now growing at a mere 5 per cent annually, according to Jeremy Stevens, an Asia economist at Standard Bank. This stagnation in income, combined with high youth unemployment and a struggling real estate market, continues to dampen consumer sentiment. A survey conducted by the People’s Bank of China in the third quarter of 2024 found that 64 per cent of Chinese households would rather save than spend, a trend that has been persistent since late 2023. This preference for saving, exacerbated by a limited social safety net, has made it difficult for the government to spur long-term consumer spending. May retail sales boosted by subsidies and promotions Despite these ongoing challenges, China’s retail sector experienced a welcome boost in May, with sales growing 6.4 per cent year-on-year, sharply surpassing analysts' expectations of a 5 per cent increase. This surge was partly attributed to the government’s ongoing consumer goods trade-in programme, which incentivised spending, along with a surge in online shopping during the “618” e-commerce event and a rise in foreign tourists following the expansion of China’s visa-free entry list. While the spike in retail sales was encouraging, experts caution that it may not signal a sustainable recovery. Zhiwei Zhang, President and Chief Economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, noted that the rising sales were a short-term benefit, with falling property prices potentially hurting long-term consumer confidence. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), property investment continues to contract, dragging down overall economic momentum. China's labour market struggles The weak consumer sentiment is closely linked to ongoing challenges in the Chinese labour market. Unemployment among young people aged 16 to 24 stood at a record 15.8 per cent in April, while the official urban unemployment rate hovered around 5 per cent. These figures highlight the lack of wage growth and the challenges posed by an uncertain job market, especially in sectors impacted by US tariffs. Additionally, a recent survey showed that over 60 per cent of respondents favoured saving over spending, indicating that uncertainty about the future and concerns over financial stability continue to weigh heavily on consumers’ minds. Many Chinese citizens also face high out-of-pocket costs for healthcare, education, and retirement, contributing to their reluctance to spend. Government's efforts to spur consumption In response to these challenges, Chinese authorities have introduced several measures aimed at stimulating consumption. These include boosting subsidies for consumer goods and expanding the availability of public holidays and services sector consumption vouchers. However, unlike the mass cash handouts in the US and Hong Kong post-pandemic, China has refrained from large-scale financial stimulus, opting instead for more targeted support. Analysts, however, warn that these efforts may not be enough to drive sustained recovery. The consumer sector remains under pressure, with deflationary trends continuing in consumer prices and deeper declines in factory-gate prices. Moreover, many local governments have already paused their consumer goods trade-in programmes as initial subsidies have been exhausted. A short-term recovery or a long-term struggle? Despite the May sales surge, the outlook for China’s consumer market remains uncertain. While export growth has remained resilient, particularly to Southeast Asia, the EU, and Africa, domestic demand continues to lag. The ongoing property slump, tightening job market, and economic uncertainty suggest that China may face a prolonged period of weak consumer spending. Some analysts are hopeful that additional fiscal measures may come in the latter half of 2024 if growth continues to falter. However, without stronger demand-side stimulus, many predict that any recovery in consumer spending will be short-lived. China’s economic trajectory will ultimately depend on how effectively it addresses the persistent structural challenges in its labour market and real estate sector. For now, though, the country’s consumer sector faces a challenging road ahead.

Despite a brief uptick in retail sales for May, analysts warn that the underlying issues driving subdued demand, such as stagnant income growth, a lack of social safety nets, and shifting consumer preferences, are unlikely to subside soon.

China's consumer spending faces lingering challenges despite May surge

West Asia, already a region defined by volatility and longstanding tensions, has once again been thrust into the international spotlight following the latest escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict.&nbsp;On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military strike aimed at neutralising Iran's nuclear sites and weakening its regional military dominance.&nbsp;The operation resulted in the deaths of several top Iranian military commanders, including General Mohammad Bagheri, General Hossein Salami, and General Amir Ali Hajizadeh—key figures overseeing Iran's armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and its ballistic missile program, respectively.<h2>A new chapter in the Israel-Iran conflict</h2>This military operation represents one of the most significant confrontations between Israel and Iran in decades. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the action as a necessary step to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, which Israel views as an “existential threat”.&nbsp;The timing of the strikes also follows a series of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly since the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel. Tehran’s support for militant proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas has long been a thorn in Israel’s side.&nbsp;Additionally, Iran lost an important ally in Syria with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, further weakening its regional influence.While Israel's actions have left Tehran reeling, it is uncertain whether the latest strikes will ignite widespread domestic unrest that could force a change in government. Although there have been some protests in Iran, they are primarily in response to Israeli aggression, rather than a direct challenge to the ruling regime.<h2>The geopolitical repercussions in the region</h2>Beyond the immediate consequences for Israel and Iran, the fallout from Operation Rising Lion is being felt throughout West Asia. Iran's nuclear ambitions have long been a source of anxiety for its Sunni Arab neighbours, who fear that a nuclear-capable Iran would lead to a regional arms race, with countries like Saudi Arabia likely to pursue their own nuclear weapons programmes.&nbsp;The stakes are high, and Israel’s strike has eased some of these concerns by weakening Iran’s nuclear capabilities, at least for the time being.However, the immediate reaction in the Gulf has been one of condemnation. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman have voiced opposition to Israel’s actions, leaving them in a precarious position.&nbsp;On one hand, Iran and its proxy forces have been a challenge to regional stability, but on the other, Iran has also acted as a counterbalance to Israel’s military dominance in the region. With Israel’s growing influence and a potential shift in US policy under President Donald Trump, the Gulf states are now forced to reconsider their relationships with both Israel and Iran.Former Indian diplomat Mahesh Sachdev notes that the Sunni Arab world harbours little affection for either Israel or Iran. A stronger, more assertive Israel could potentially force Gulf states to normalise ties with the Jewish state under the framework of the 2020 Abraham Accords, a peace agreement that had already begun to reshape the regional diplomatic landscape.India, which has strong ties with both Israel and Iran, finds itself in a delicate position as it watches the unfolding events with cautious attention.<h2>India's delicate balancing act</h2>India has historically treaded carefully when it comes to West Asia, largely due to its complex relations with both Israel and Iran.&nbsp;On one hand, India shares “civilisational ties” with Iran, and the two countries have had a longstanding partnership on matters of energy, trade, and regional connectivity. Iran has also been an important energy partner for India, although the country ceased importing oil from Iran under US sanctions imposed during the Trump administration.On the other hand, India has been a steadfast partner of Israel, particularly since formal diplomatic ties were established in 1992. The relationship has flourished across various sectors, including defence, agriculture, and technology.&nbsp;Israel has been a key supplier of advanced military equipment to India, including drones and missiles, which have been used in operations against Pakistan, particularly during the 2019 Operation Sindoor.India's position on the Iran-Israel conflict is shaped not only by its strong bilateral ties with both nations but also by the need to safeguard its interests in the wider Gulf region. Approximately 9 million Indians live and work in the Gulf states, making the safety and security of the expatriate community a priority. Furthermore, the region plays a vital role in India's energy supply, particularly in terms of oil and natural gas.India’s foreign policy is aligned closely with the Gulf states’ concerns about Iran, especially as Tehran has continued to exert its influence through proxy groups in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, and Iraq.&nbsp;The recent escalation has only deepened India’s commitment to its strategic relationship with Israel, despite the Gulf states’ condemnation of Israel’s actions.<h2>The IMEC and its delays</h2>India’s ambitions for regional connectivity are heavily tied to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which was announced in 2023.&nbsp;The project, which seeks to connect South Asia, West Asia, and Europe through a comprehensive network of transport, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure, is seen as a game-changer for India’s trade and economic prospects.The IMEC project was born out of the vision for peace and cooperation in the region following the Abraham Accords and the creation of the Israel-India-US-UAE (I2U2) grouping.&nbsp;However, the current crisis has cast a shadow over the project’s implementation. The ongoing conflict has created additional uncertainty, delaying key infrastructure developments and complicating logistics in the region.&nbsp;Shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, critical for global trade, have been disrupted by ongoing threats from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, forcing many ships to take longer routes and incur higher costs.Although the IMEC project remains a priority for India, the new geopolitical risks introduced by Israel’s strikes on Iran may cause delays and potentially force a reevaluation of its timeline.<h2>Oil, trade, and markets</h2>The Israel-Iran conflict has already had a significant impact on global markets, particularly oil prices. As tensions rose, Brent crude oil prices surged by 7 per cent, hitting $75 per barrel, with analysts predicting a potential spike above $100 per barrel if the conflict escalates further.&nbsp;The surge in oil prices has ripple effects across the global economy, as higher energy costs lead to increased prices for everything from consumer goods to air travel.West Asia is a major hub for global oil production and maritime trade, and any disruption to shipping routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz (which handles a quarter of the world’s oil trade), could have far-reaching consequences.&nbsp;Iran had recently threatened to block the strait, and although this remains unlikely, analysts are monitoring the situation closely.Rising oil prices are also expected to increase shipping insurance premiums, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers.&nbsp;The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that every 10 per cent increase in oil prices could raise inflation in advanced economies by 0.4 percentage points, adding to the financial strain on consumers and businesses.The disruptions in maritime trade are already being felt, as the Houthi rebels’ attacks have forced many vessels to take longer routes, increasing travel times and costs.&nbsp;This not only delays shipments but also affects global supply chains, which are already fragile due to other geopolitical factors such as the ongoing war in Ukraine.The sudden escalation also rattled the markets around the world, with the S&amp;P 500 falling 1.1 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.8 per cent, and European and Asian indices mirroring these declines. Volatility spiked as the VIX—often called the market’s “fear gauge”—surged past the critical 20-point anxiety threshold.Investors also flocked to safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar, which typically perform well during crises. Spot gold was up 0.38 per cent, while gold futures for August delivery gained 0.41 per cent, following respective June 13 increases of 1.4 per cent and 1.5 per cent.The US dollar index climbed 0.3 per cent on June 13 and was up another 0.1 per cent by June 16 morning, outperforming other traditional safe currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen.The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has triggered a volatile mix of geopolitical, economic, and energy market concerns. The ongoing uncertainty in the region is a significant source of risk for global trade and oil markets and could further complicate India's strategic initiatives in West Asia, including the IMEC project.India's ability to navigate this complex situation, balancing its interests with Israel and Iran while safeguarding its goals, will be crucial in shaping the future of West Asia and South Asia's economic landscape.&nbsp;The road ahead remains fraught with challenges, but it is clear that the geopolitical dynamics of this conflict will continue to reverberate across the global economy for the foreseeable future.

The conflict has already caused disruptions in global trade, with rising oil prices and shipping delays. While the immediate impact is significant, the full extent of its impact on global markets, particularly oil and trade, will depend on the duration and scope of the confrontation.

West Asia, already a region defined by volatility and longstanding tensions, has once again been thrust into the international spotlight following the latest escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict. On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military strike aimed at neutralising Iran's nuclear sites and weakening its regional military dominance. The operation resulted in the deaths of several top Iranian military commanders, including General Mohammad Bagheri, General Hossein Salami, and General Amir Ali Hajizadeh—key figures overseeing Iran's armed forces, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), and its ballistic missile program, respectively. A new chapter in the Israel-Iran conflict This military operation represents one of the most significant confrontations between Israel and Iran in decades. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu justified the action as a necessary step to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, which Israel views as an “existential threat”. The timing of the strikes also follows a series of escalating tensions between Israel and Iran, particularly since the October 7, 2023, Hamas-led attack on Israel. Tehran’s support for militant proxies such as Hezbollah and Hamas has long been a thorn in Israel’s side. Additionally, Iran lost an important ally in Syria with the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, further weakening its regional influence. While Israel's actions have left Tehran reeling, it is uncertain whether the latest strikes will ignite widespread domestic unrest that could force a change in government. Although there have been some protests in Iran, they are primarily in response to Israeli aggression, rather than a direct challenge to the ruling regime. The geopolitical repercussions in the region Beyond the immediate consequences for Israel and Iran, the fallout from Operation Rising Lion is being felt throughout West Asia. Iran's nuclear ambitions have long been a source of anxiety for its Sunni Arab neighbours, who fear that a nuclear-capable Iran would lead to a regional arms race, with countries like Saudi Arabia likely to pursue their own nuclear weapons programmes. The stakes are high, and Israel’s strike has eased some of these concerns by weakening Iran’s nuclear capabilities, at least for the time being. However, the immediate reaction in the Gulf has been one of condemnation. Countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman have voiced opposition to Israel’s actions, leaving them in a precarious position. On one hand, Iran and its proxy forces have been a challenge to regional stability, but on the other, Iran has also acted as a counterbalance to Israel’s military dominance in the region. With Israel’s growing influence and a potential shift in US policy under President Donald Trump, the Gulf states are now forced to reconsider their relationships with both Israel and Iran. Former Indian diplomat Mahesh Sachdev notes that the Sunni Arab world harbours little affection for either Israel or Iran. A stronger, more assertive Israel could potentially force Gulf states to normalise ties with the Jewish state under the framework of the 2020 Abraham Accords, a peace agreement that had already begun to reshape the regional diplomatic landscape. India, which has strong ties with both Israel and Iran, finds itself in a delicate position as it watches the unfolding events with cautious attention. India's delicate balancing act India has historically treaded carefully when it comes to West Asia, largely due to its complex relations with both Israel and Iran. On one hand, India shares “civilisational ties” with Iran, and the two countries have had a longstanding partnership on matters of energy, trade, and regional connectivity. Iran has also been an important energy partner for India, although the country ceased importing oil from Iran under US sanctions imposed during the Trump administration. On the other hand, India has been a steadfast partner of Israel, particularly since formal diplomatic ties were established in 1992. The relationship has flourished across various sectors, including defence, agriculture, and technology. Israel has been a key supplier of advanced military equipment to India, including drones and missiles, which have been used in operations against Pakistan, particularly during the 2019 Operation Sindoor. India's position on the Iran-Israel conflict is shaped not only by its strong bilateral ties with both nations but also by the need to safeguard its interests in the wider Gulf region. Approximately 9 million Indians live and work in the Gulf states, making the safety and security of the expatriate community a priority. Furthermore, the region plays a vital role in India's energy supply, particularly in terms of oil and natural gas. India’s foreign policy is aligned closely with the Gulf states’ concerns about Iran, especially as Tehran has continued to exert its influence through proxy groups in Lebanon (Hezbollah), Syria, and Iraq. The recent escalation has only deepened India’s commitment to its strategic relationship with Israel, despite the Gulf states’ condemnation of Israel’s actions. The IMEC and its delays India’s ambitions for regional connectivity are heavily tied to the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), which was announced in 2023. The project, which seeks to connect South Asia, West Asia, and Europe through a comprehensive network of transport, renewable energy, and digital infrastructure, is seen as a game-changer for India’s trade and economic prospects. The IMEC project was born out of the vision for peace and cooperation in the region following the Abraham Accords and the creation of the Israel-India-US-UAE (I2U2) grouping. However, the current crisis has cast a shadow over the project’s implementation. The ongoing conflict has created additional uncertainty, delaying key infrastructure developments and complicating logistics in the region. Shipping routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, critical for global trade, have been disrupted by ongoing threats from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, forcing many ships to take longer routes and incur higher costs. Although the IMEC project remains a priority for India, the new geopolitical risks introduced by Israel’s strikes on Iran may cause delays and potentially force a reevaluation of its timeline. Oil, trade, and markets The Israel-Iran conflict has already had a significant impact on global markets, particularly oil prices. As tensions rose, Brent crude oil prices surged by 7 per cent, hitting $75 per barrel, with analysts predicting a potential spike above $100 per barrel if the conflict escalates further. The surge in oil prices has ripple effects across the global economy, as higher energy costs lead to increased prices for everything from consumer goods to air travel. West Asia is a major hub for global oil production and maritime trade, and any disruption to shipping routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz (which handles a quarter of the world’s oil trade), could have far-reaching consequences. Iran had recently threatened to block the strait, and although this remains unlikely, analysts are monitoring the situation closely. Rising oil prices are also expected to increase shipping insurance premiums, which will ultimately be passed on to consumers. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that every 10 per cent increase in oil prices could raise inflation in advanced economies by 0.4 percentage points, adding to the financial strain on consumers and businesses. The disruptions in maritime trade are already being felt, as the Houthi rebels’ attacks have forced many vessels to take longer routes, increasing travel times and costs. This not only delays shipments but also affects global supply chains, which are already fragile due to other geopolitical factors such as the ongoing war in Ukraine. The sudden escalation also rattled the markets around the world, with the S&P 500 falling 1.1 per cent, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.8 per cent, and European and Asian indices mirroring these declines. Volatility spiked as the VIX—often called the market’s “fear gauge”—surged past the critical 20-point anxiety threshold. Investors also flocked to safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar, which typically perform well during crises. Spot gold was up 0.38 per cent, while gold futures for August delivery gained 0.41 per cent, following respective June 13 increases of 1.4 per cent and 1.5 per cent. The US dollar index climbed 0.3 per cent on June 13 and was up another 0.1 per cent by June 16 morning, outperforming other traditional safe currencies like the Swiss franc and Japanese yen. The escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict has triggered a volatile mix of geopolitical, economic, and energy market concerns. The ongoing uncertainty in the region is a significant source of risk for global trade and oil markets and could further complicate India's strategic initiatives in West Asia, including the IMEC project. India's ability to navigate this complex situation, balancing its interests with Israel and Iran while safeguarding its goals, will be crucial in shaping the future of West Asia and South Asia's economic landscape. The road ahead remains fraught with challenges, but it is clear that the geopolitical dynamics of this conflict will continue to reverberate across the global economy for the foreseeable future.

The conflict has already caused disruptions in global trade, with rising oil prices and shipping delays. While the immediate impact is significant, the full extent of its impact on global markets, particularly oil and trade, will depend on the duration and scope of the confrontation.

Rising tensions in West Asia: Israel-Iran conflict and its global repercussions

Alphabet’s Google is preparing to end its long-standing relationship with data-labelling startup Scale AI after Meta Platforms acquired a 49 per cent stake in the company, Reuters&nbsp;reported.&nbsp;The move marks a major shakeup in the AI ecosystem, with several top artificial intelligence (AI) labs now seeking alternative or in-house solutions to protect their proprietary data.Meta’s investment in Scale AI values the startup at $29 billion—double its previous valuation from just a year ago. But the eye-catching deal has spurred immediate concern from competitors in the AI space, who fear their confidential data, research directions, and prototype tools could now be indirectly exposed to a rival.Scale AI specialises in providing expertly labelled datasets which are essential for training generative AI models such as Google’s Gemini or OpenAI’s GPT series.&nbsp;Google alone was slated to spend around $200 million on Scale’s services this year and had paid $150 million in 2024.But insiders say Meta’s new stake and the appointment of Scale CEO Alexandr Wang to lead Meta’s superintelligence team was the tipping point for Google, Microsoft, Elon Musk’s xAI, and even OpenAI, all of whom are now scaling back or exiting their contracts with Scale.<h2>Data privacy, competition fuel concerns</h2>At the core of the backlash is a shared worry over data security and competitive leakage. Companies like Google and Microsoft rely on data-labelling partners to handle sensitive materials—including experimental products and training data—which may now be accessible to a firm like Meta through its close ties to Scale.Though Meta has not taken a board seat at Scale AI and insists the two companies will continue to operate independently, AI labs are sceptical. Wang’s move to Meta, along with a few Scale employees, only intensifies fears that Scale can no longer maintain the neutrality necessary to work with competing AI developers.<h2>Scale’s rivals gain ground</h2>The fallout is rapidly benefiting Scale AI’s competitors. Firms like Labelbox, Turing, Handshake, and Mercor are seeing a surge in demand from AI labs eager to pivot away from Scale. Handshake, which specialises in a vetted network of PhDs and technical experts, reported its client workload tripled overnight after news of the Meta deal broke.Labelbox, another major rival, is reportedly on track to gain “hundreds of millions” in new revenue this year as customers flee Scale. Several companies are also taking the in-house route, hiring their own data labellers to ensure tighter security and control.<h2>Meta’s strategic move and Wang’s role</h2>Meta’s acquisition appears driven not just by data but by talent. The deal gives Meta access to Alexandr Wang, the 28-year-old tech prodigy who co-founded Scale in 2016. Wang, who dropped out of MIT to build Scale, is now tasked with leading Meta’s “superintelligence” team—a move that underscores CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s push to catch up in the AI race.Meta has faced delays in launching new AI models and has lost key staff in recent months. By bringing Wang onboard, the company is betting that a sharp business mind, rather than a research-heavy background, can restore its competitive edge—much like OpenAI's Sam Altman.Scale AI will continue to operate independently and serve its government and enterprise clients, but with its largest customers heading for the exit, the company’s growth trajectory is uncertain. The deal is also likely to invite regulatory scrutiny, especially given Meta’s existing antitrust battles in the US.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

Scale AI specialises in providing expertly labelled datasets which are essential for training generative AI models such as Google’s Gemini or OpenAI’s GPT series. 

Alphabet’s Google is preparing to end its long-standing relationship with data-labelling startup Scale AI after Meta Platforms acquired a 49 per cent stake in the company, Reuters reported. The move marks a major shakeup in the AI ecosystem, with several top artificial intelligence (AI) labs now seeking alternative or in-house solutions to protect their proprietary data. Meta’s investment in Scale AI values the startup at $29 billion—double its previous valuation from just a year ago. But the eye-catching deal has spurred immediate concern from competitors in the AI space, who fear their confidential data, research directions, and prototype tools could now be indirectly exposed to a rival. Scale AI specialises in providing expertly labelled datasets which are essential for training generative AI models such as Google’s Gemini or OpenAI’s GPT series. Google alone was slated to spend around $200 million on Scale’s services this year and had paid $150 million in 2024. But insiders say Meta’s new stake and the appointment of Scale CEO Alexandr Wang to lead Meta’s superintelligence team was the tipping point for Google, Microsoft, Elon Musk’s xAI, and even OpenAI, all of whom are now scaling back or exiting their contracts with Scale. Data privacy, competition fuel concerns At the core of the backlash is a shared worry over data security and competitive leakage. Companies like Google and Microsoft rely on data-labelling partners to handle sensitive materials—including experimental products and training data—which may now be accessible to a firm like Meta through its close ties to Scale. Though Meta has not taken a board seat at Scale AI and insists the two companies will continue to operate independently, AI labs are sceptical. Wang’s move to Meta, along with a few Scale employees, only intensifies fears that Scale can no longer maintain the neutrality necessary to work with competing AI developers. Scale’s rivals gain ground The fallout is rapidly benefiting Scale AI’s competitors. Firms like Labelbox, Turing, Handshake, and Mercor are seeing a surge in demand from AI labs eager to pivot away from Scale. Handshake, which specialises in a vetted network of PhDs and technical experts, reported its client workload tripled overnight after news of the Meta deal broke. Labelbox, another major rival, is reportedly on track to gain “hundreds of millions” in new revenue this year as customers flee Scale. Several companies are also taking the in-house route, hiring their own data labellers to ensure tighter security and control. Meta’s strategic move and Wang’s role Meta’s acquisition appears driven not just by data but by talent. The deal gives Meta access to Alexandr Wang, the 28-year-old tech prodigy who co-founded Scale in 2016. Wang, who dropped out of MIT to build Scale, is now tasked with leading Meta’s “superintelligence” team—a move that underscores CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s push to catch up in the AI race. Meta has faced delays in launching new AI models and has lost key staff in recent months. By bringing Wang onboard, the company is betting that a sharp business mind, rather than a research-heavy background, can restore its competitive edge—much like OpenAI's Sam Altman. Scale AI will continue to operate independently and serve its government and enterprise clients, but with its largest customers heading for the exit, the company’s growth trajectory is uncertain. The deal is also likely to invite regulatory scrutiny, especially given Meta’s existing antitrust battles in the US. (With inputs from agencies)

Scale AI specialises in providing expertly labelled datasets which are essential for training generative AI models such as Google’s Gemini or OpenAI’s GPT series.&nbsp;

Google plans to split from Scale AI after Meta's deal

The latest round of US-China trade talks concluded in London with both sides declaring a new truce, but key issues surrounding national security-linked export controls remain unresolved, casting a shadow over hopes for a comprehensive long-term agreement.&nbsp;While US President Donald Trump hailed the deal as a “great success”, people familiar with the matter confirmed to Reuters&nbsp;that the compromise excludes crucial components like military-grade rare earth exports and advanced technology restrictions.According to two individuals briefed on the negotiations, Beijing has yet to commit to lifting its export restrictions on certain specialised rare-earth magnets essential to US military suppliers, particularly those used in fighter jets and missile systems.&nbsp;In parallel, the US maintains its export curbs on cutting-edge AI chips that it fears could have military applications in China. This unresolved tension forms a significant obstacle to any broader trade resolution.At the London discussions, Chinese negotiators reportedly linked progress on easing restrictions on rare-earth magnets with the longstanding US controls on AI chip exports. This marked a shift from the original trade dialogue, which had centred on tariff adjustments and China’s trade surplus.&nbsp;The emerging focus on export controls, especially in sectors vital to defence and next-generation technologies, signals a deeper strategic competition between the two powers.<h2>Limited gains on rare earths and tariff relief</h2>Although both sides emerged from the talks with what they described as a framework to de-escalate trade tensions, key concessions remain narrow in scope. China has agreed to expedite the approval of export licences for rare earths bound for non-military US manufacturers.&nbsp;These fast-track approvals are expected to be valid for six months and would apply to companies seen as “trusted” by Beijing. Additionally, a “green channel” has been proposed to facilitate smoother processing for select US firms.Chinese rare-earth magnet producer JL MAG Rare-Earth confirmed it had received export licences that included shipments to the United States, while the Chinese Commerce Ministry acknowledged approval of compliant applications.&nbsp;However, rare earth elements like samarium—vital for military applications—remain excluded from this arrangement. Automakers, who primarily use dysprosium and terbium in electric motors and braking systems, will benefit more directly from the current terms than the defence industry.Meanwhile, US officials indicated plans to extend existing tariffs on China by another 90 days beyond the August 10 deadline agreed in Geneva, signalling that a more permanent agreement is not expected before then.&nbsp;<h2>Rare earths as strategic leverage</h2>Rare earth elements—17 minerals crucial to modern manufacturing—have emerged as a strategic bargaining chip in the ongoing trade conflict. China mines around 70 per cent of the world’s rare earths and processes nearly 90 per cent, giving it a near-monopoly in this domain.&nbsp;Beijing’s dominance also extends to related products such as rare earth magnets, which are critical not only to the auto and electronics industries but also to advanced weapons systems.Earlier this year, China imposed export controls on seven key rare earths and related products in response to US tariff escalations. These restrictions, which affected elements such as samarium, dysprosium, and gadolinium, created significant bottlenecks for global manufacturers, particularly in the automotive sector.&nbsp;The impact was swift and deep: Chinese customs data revealed that US imports of rare earths dropped 37 per cent in April, while rare earth magnet imports fell by over 50 per cent.The Geneva truce in May temporarily eased tensions by reducing US tariffs from 145 per cent to 30 per cent and Chinese duties from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. However, the apparent stall in Beijing’s efforts to roll back its rare earth export controls led to renewed friction. The London agreement was widely seen as an effort to stabilise the situation before the tariff pause expired.<h2>Structural barriers and strategic deadlock</h2>Despite the temporary nature of the latest deal, structural issues remain entrenched. China’s control over the rare earth supply chain is backed by decades of investment, state support, and aggressive pricing strategies that forced global competitors out of business.&nbsp;Efforts by Western countries to diversify supply chains have made limited progress. Export licences issued by Beijing often apply to single shipments or are valid for only six months, making long-term planning difficult for manufacturers.Experts note that Beijing’s licensing regime, once seen as a retaliatory measure, is now being institutionalised as a permanent feature of China’s trade policy. This allows China to deter rare earth stockpiling by US firms and maintain strategic leverage in future negotiations.Furthermore, China has expanded its export control framework to other critical minerals such as tungsten, essential for semiconductor and military-grade tools. These moves, combined with the US’s continued efforts to curb China’s access to advanced AI technologies, signal a decoupling trend that extends beyond trade into strategic and technological spheres.While the US has secured some concessions, analysts remain sceptical about the prospects of a lasting resolution. Chinese commentators, including those at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warn that the fundamental trade imbalance and broader geopolitical mistrust may prevent any comprehensive agreement during President Trump’s current term.In the meantime, industries reliant on rare earths, especially automotive, aerospace, and defence, are bracing for continued volatility. With Beijing unlikely to relinquish its dominance and Washington unwilling to compromise on technology exports, the London truce appears more like a tactical pause than a strategic breakthrough. (With inputs from agencies)

At the London discussions, Chinese negotiators reportedly linked progress on easing restrictions on rare-earth magnets with the longstanding US controls on AI chip exports.

The latest round of US-China trade talks concluded in London with both sides declaring a new truce, but key issues surrounding national security-linked export controls remain unresolved, casting a shadow over hopes for a comprehensive long-term agreement. While US President Donald Trump hailed the deal as a “great success”, people familiar with the matter confirmed to Reuters that the compromise excludes crucial components like military-grade rare earth exports and advanced technology restrictions. According to two individuals briefed on the negotiations, Beijing has yet to commit to lifting its export restrictions on certain specialised rare-earth magnets essential to US military suppliers, particularly those used in fighter jets and missile systems. In parallel, the US maintains its export curbs on cutting-edge AI chips that it fears could have military applications in China. This unresolved tension forms a significant obstacle to any broader trade resolution. At the London discussions, Chinese negotiators reportedly linked progress on easing restrictions on rare-earth magnets with the longstanding US controls on AI chip exports. This marked a shift from the original trade dialogue, which had centred on tariff adjustments and China’s trade surplus. The emerging focus on export controls, especially in sectors vital to defence and next-generation technologies, signals a deeper strategic competition between the two powers. Limited gains on rare earths and tariff relief Although both sides emerged from the talks with what they described as a framework to de-escalate trade tensions, key concessions remain narrow in scope. China has agreed to expedite the approval of export licences for rare earths bound for non-military US manufacturers. These fast-track approvals are expected to be valid for six months and would apply to companies seen as “trusted” by Beijing. Additionally, a “green channel” has been proposed to facilitate smoother processing for select US firms. Chinese rare-earth magnet producer JL MAG Rare-Earth confirmed it had received export licences that included shipments to the United States, while the Chinese Commerce Ministry acknowledged approval of compliant applications. However, rare earth elements like samarium—vital for military applications—remain excluded from this arrangement. Automakers, who primarily use dysprosium and terbium in electric motors and braking systems, will benefit more directly from the current terms than the defence industry. Meanwhile, US officials indicated plans to extend existing tariffs on China by another 90 days beyond the August 10 deadline agreed in Geneva, signalling that a more permanent agreement is not expected before then. Rare earths as strategic leverage Rare earth elements—17 minerals crucial to modern manufacturing—have emerged as a strategic bargaining chip in the ongoing trade conflict. China mines around 70 per cent of the world’s rare earths and processes nearly 90 per cent, giving it a near-monopoly in this domain. Beijing’s dominance also extends to related products such as rare earth magnets, which are critical not only to the auto and electronics industries but also to advanced weapons systems. Earlier this year, China imposed export controls on seven key rare earths and related products in response to US tariff escalations. These restrictions, which affected elements such as samarium, dysprosium, and gadolinium, created significant bottlenecks for global manufacturers, particularly in the automotive sector. The impact was swift and deep: Chinese customs data revealed that US imports of rare earths dropped 37 per cent in April, while rare earth magnet imports fell by over 50 per cent. The Geneva truce in May temporarily eased tensions by reducing US tariffs from 145 per cent to 30 per cent and Chinese duties from 125 per cent to 10 per cent. However, the apparent stall in Beijing’s efforts to roll back its rare earth export controls led to renewed friction. The London agreement was widely seen as an effort to stabilise the situation before the tariff pause expired. Structural barriers and strategic deadlock Despite the temporary nature of the latest deal, structural issues remain entrenched. China’s control over the rare earth supply chain is backed by decades of investment, state support, and aggressive pricing strategies that forced global competitors out of business. Efforts by Western countries to diversify supply chains have made limited progress. Export licences issued by Beijing often apply to single shipments or are valid for only six months, making long-term planning difficult for manufacturers. Experts note that Beijing’s licensing regime, once seen as a retaliatory measure, is now being institutionalised as a permanent feature of China’s trade policy. This allows China to deter rare earth stockpiling by US firms and maintain strategic leverage in future negotiations. Furthermore, China has expanded its export control framework to other critical minerals such as tungsten, essential for semiconductor and military-grade tools. These moves, combined with the US’s continued efforts to curb China’s access to advanced AI technologies, signal a decoupling trend that extends beyond trade into strategic and technological spheres. While the US has secured some concessions, analysts remain sceptical about the prospects of a lasting resolution. Chinese commentators, including those at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, warn that the fundamental trade imbalance and broader geopolitical mistrust may prevent any comprehensive agreement during President Trump’s current term. In the meantime, industries reliant on rare earths, especially automotive, aerospace, and defence, are bracing for continued volatility. With Beijing unlikely to relinquish its dominance and Washington unwilling to compromise on technology exports, the London truce appears more like a tactical pause than a strategic breakthrough. (With inputs from agencies)

At the London discussions, Chinese negotiators reportedly linked progress on easing restrictions on rare-earth magnets with the longstanding US controls on AI chip exports.

US-China trade truce leaves rare earths issue unresolved

Global central banks representing economies that account for nearly two-fifths of global output are expected to keep interest rates steady in the coming week, as policymakers grapple with an uncertain outlook shaped by escalating trade disputes and renewed geopolitical instability.&nbsp;With fresh tensions flaring between Israel and Iran and continuing disruptions from protectionist policies led by the US, central bankers appear to be exercising extreme caution.Officials in the US, UK, Japan, Norway, and Brazil are among those expected to pause any immediate monetary shifts. The sentiment is mirrored by the Paris-based OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), which recently downgraded its global growth forecasts, citing intensifying trade tensions as a key driver of inflationary pressures and reduced investment activity.<h2>US and Canada: Inflation jitters amid weak consumer demand</h2>All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve, which will meet on Wednesday, just as President Donald Trump approaches his 150th day in office. The Fed is not expected to make any changes, given uncertainties over the long-term economic impact of the administration’s trade policies.&nbsp;Recent data suggests a dip in May retail sales, particularly in automobile purchases, though underlying figures excluding autos and fuel may show slight improvement.Also on the radar are housing starts and industrial production. Manufacturing output is expected to decline for a second consecutive month, reflecting a sector reeling from tariff-related unpredictability.In Canada, the focus will shift to Prime Minister Mark Carney's efforts at the G-7 summit and the Bank of Canada’s policy deliberations. While the central bank held rates steady in its last meeting, it hinted at a possible cut if economic growth softens further. Key indicators such as April retail sales and migration data will be closely watched.<h2>Asia: Holding steady as risks mount</h2>Across Asia, most central banks are set to adopt a wait-and-see approach. The Bank of Japan, despite persistent inflationary struggles, is unlikely to change interest rates. Investors are instead watching for changes in its bond-buying operations, with many anticipating a deceleration.Central banks in Indonesia, Taiwan, and China are also expected to maintain the status quo, the latter holding its loan prime rates steady. The Philippines may buck the trend with a modest rate cut of 25 basis points, driven by easing inflation.China will release a broad set of economic data, including retail sales, industrial production, and employment. While industrial activity may show resilience due to frontloaded manufacturing, property investment is expected to remain weak.&nbsp;Japan, meanwhile, will publish export and inflation data, both of which may reflect the toll of US trade policies.In Israel, inflation is projected to have eased slightly in May. The country’s central bank has held rates at 4.5 per cent for over a year amid persistent regional instability.&nbsp;<h2>Europe and Africa: Oil spike complicates BOE path</h2>In the UK, the Bank of England (BOE) is anticipated to maintain rates at 4.25 per cent, even as inflation remains stubbornly above target at 3.4 per cent.&nbsp;The recent spike in oil prices, triggered by Israel’s strike on Iran’s nuclear program, adds to inflation risks, complicating future rate-cut paths. Analysts predict a 7-2 vote in favour of keeping rates unchanged, with gradual easing likely in the months ahead.The European Central Bank (ECB) will be active on the speaking circuit, with appearances from top officials including President Christine Lagarde. Economic sentiment and consumer confidence data from the eurozone may offer clues on business and consumer reactions to ongoing uncertainties.Meanwhile, South Africa will release inflation data and a financial stability review, both likely to support the case for steady policy.<h2>Latin America: Mixed outlooks amid local challenges</h2>Brazil and Chile are also expected to hold rates, though inflation trends suggest differing paths ahead. After a recent favourable inflation report, Brazil’s central bank is likely to keep its benchmark rate at 14.75 per cent for now, holding off on further tightening.&nbsp;Chile’s policymakers, facing a more subdued inflation environment, may keep rates at 5 per cent while signalling future easing.Economic indicators from Colombia and retail data from Brazil will provide further insight into how resilient household demand remains in the face of global headwinds.With policymakers digesting the impacts of trade disruptions and geopolitical shocks, most central banks are choosing to remain on hold. The prevailing sentiment across major economies is one of watchful inaction, as inflationary risks collide with concerns about slowing growth.&nbsp;As the second half of the year unfolds, the pace and direction of monetary policy will largely depend on how global trade and security dynamics evolve.

With fresh tensions flaring between Israel and Iran and continuing disruptions from protectionist policies led by the US, central bankers appear to be exercising extreme caution.

Global central banks representing economies that account for nearly two-fifths of global output are expected to keep interest rates steady in the coming week, as policymakers grapple with an uncertain outlook shaped by escalating trade disputes and renewed geopolitical instability. With fresh tensions flaring between Israel and Iran and continuing disruptions from protectionist policies led by the US, central bankers appear to be exercising extreme caution. Officials in the US, UK, Japan, Norway, and Brazil are among those expected to pause any immediate monetary shifts. The sentiment is mirrored by the Paris-based OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development), which recently downgraded its global growth forecasts, citing intensifying trade tensions as a key driver of inflationary pressures and reduced investment activity. US and Canada: Inflation jitters amid weak consumer demand All eyes are on the US Federal Reserve, which will meet on Wednesday, just as President Donald Trump approaches his 150th day in office. The Fed is not expected to make any changes, given uncertainties over the long-term economic impact of the administration’s trade policies. Recent data suggests a dip in May retail sales, particularly in automobile purchases, though underlying figures excluding autos and fuel may show slight improvement. Also on the radar are housing starts and industrial production. Manufacturing output is expected to decline for a second consecutive month, reflecting a sector reeling from tariff-related unpredictability. In Canada, the focus will shift to Prime Minister Mark Carney's efforts at the G-7 summit and the Bank of Canada’s policy deliberations. While the central bank held rates steady in its last meeting, it hinted at a possible cut if economic growth softens further. Key indicators such as April retail sales and migration data will be closely watched. Asia: Holding steady as risks mount Across Asia, most central banks are set to adopt a wait-and-see approach. The Bank of Japan, despite persistent inflationary struggles, is unlikely to change interest rates. Investors are instead watching for changes in its bond-buying operations, with many anticipating a deceleration. Central banks in Indonesia, Taiwan, and China are also expected to maintain the status quo, the latter holding its loan prime rates steady. The Philippines may buck the trend with a modest rate cut of 25 basis points, driven by easing inflation. China will release a broad set of economic data, including retail sales, industrial production, and employment. While industrial activity may show resilience due to frontloaded manufacturing, property investment is expected to remain weak. Japan, meanwhile, will publish export and inflation data, both of which may reflect the toll of US trade policies. In Israel, inflation is projected to have eased slightly in May. The country’s central bank has held rates at 4.5 per cent for over a year amid persistent regional instability. Europe and Africa: Oil spike complicates BOE path In the UK, the Bank of England (BOE) is anticipated to maintain rates at 4.25 per cent, even as inflation remains stubbornly above target at 3.4 per cent. The recent spike in oil prices, triggered by Israel’s strike on Iran’s nuclear program, adds to inflation risks, complicating future rate-cut paths. Analysts predict a 7-2 vote in favour of keeping rates unchanged, with gradual easing likely in the months ahead. The European Central Bank (ECB) will be active on the speaking circuit, with appearances from top officials including President Christine Lagarde. Economic sentiment and consumer confidence data from the eurozone may offer clues on business and consumer reactions to ongoing uncertainties. Meanwhile, South Africa will release inflation data and a financial stability review, both likely to support the case for steady policy. Latin America: Mixed outlooks amid local challenges Brazil and Chile are also expected to hold rates, though inflation trends suggest differing paths ahead. After a recent favourable inflation report, Brazil’s central bank is likely to keep its benchmark rate at 14.75 per cent for now, holding off on further tightening. Chile’s policymakers, facing a more subdued inflation environment, may keep rates at 5 per cent while signalling future easing. Economic indicators from Colombia and retail data from Brazil will provide further insight into how resilient household demand remains in the face of global headwinds. With policymakers digesting the impacts of trade disruptions and geopolitical shocks, most central banks are choosing to remain on hold. The prevailing sentiment across major economies is one of watchful inaction, as inflationary risks collide with concerns about slowing growth. As the second half of the year unfolds, the pace and direction of monetary policy will largely depend on how global trade and security dynamics evolve.

With fresh tensions flaring between Israel and Iran and continuing disruptions from protectionist policies led by the US, central bankers appear to be exercising extreme caution.

Central banks set to hold rates amid trade disruptions, Central Asian tensions

Global financial markets and energy supply chains have been rattled by a sudden escalation in Central Asia tensions, as Israel launched strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, triggering retaliatory drone attacks from Tehran.&nbsp;The recent fallout has revived fears of a global inflation wave, with oil prices surging and trade disruptions looming.The price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged as much as 13 per cent on June 13, the steepest single-day jump since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.&nbsp;Though prices eased slightly by market close, Brent still ended the day over 7 per cent higher, trading at $74.23 a barrel. Analysts warn the rally may be just the beginning if the conflict widens or if key oil infrastructure is hit.Energy traders are closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow but vital waterway through which 20–25 per cent of global oil supply and much of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass.&nbsp;While shipping continues through the strait for now, the growing conflict has increased the risk of disruption. Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumps roughly three million barrels of oil per day—approximately 3 per cent of global output—and has in the past threatened to close the Strait in response to Western actions.“If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, even temporarily, we’re looking at the biggest oil shock of all time,” Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, told Al Jazeera.&nbsp;The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said it stands ready to release the 1.2 billion barrels of emergency reserves to stabilise supply. But OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais criticised the statement, warning that it could trigger unnecessary panic.<h2>IMF, Analysts warn of ripple effects</h2>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that a 10 per cent rise in oil prices could increase global inflation by 0.4 percentage points and reduce global GDP growth by 0.15 percentage points.&nbsp;Traders are now pricing in a potential $20-40 spike in oil prices if the conflict escalates, particularly if Iran targets production facilities in Iraq or disrupts shipping lanes.For countries like India, which imports over 80 per cent of its crude oil needs, the stakes are especially high. A rise in oil prices directly feeds into higher fuel, transport, and manufacturing costs, raising inflation and weakening the rupee. This could widen India’s current account deficit and dampen foreign investment sentiment.<h2>Markets slide, safe havens surge</h2>Global equities reacted sharply to the news. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.9 per cent, the UK’s FTSE 100 closed 0.39 per cent lower, and US stocks tumbled—with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.79 per cent and the S&amp;P 500 down 0.69 per cent.&nbsp;Meanwhile, gold surged 1.2 per cent to $3,423.30 an ounce, its highest level in two months, as investors sought refuge in traditional safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc.Analysts have warned that if Iranian production is disrupted, oil could reach $100 per barrel. However, they noted that such a spike may encourage other producers to ramp up supply, limiting the long-term inflationary impact.Some airlines have suspended flights to Tel Aviv and Tehran, while merchant ships are proceeding with caution through the Strait of Hormuz. Countries like Greece and the UK have issued advisories for vessels to avoid high-risk waters, including the Gulf of Aden.With geopolitical tensions escalating and oil markets on edge, the world may be entering a new phase of energy insecurity and economic fragility—one where supply shocks, inflation risks, and geopolitical brinkmanship are closely intertwined.

The price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged as much as 13 per cent on June 13, the steepest single-day jump since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

Global financial markets and energy supply chains have been rattled by a sudden escalation in Central Asia tensions, as Israel launched strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, triggering retaliatory drone attacks from Tehran. The recent fallout has revived fears of a global inflation wave, with oil prices surging and trade disruptions looming. The price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged as much as 13 per cent on June 13, the steepest single-day jump since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Though prices eased slightly by market close, Brent still ended the day over 7 per cent higher, trading at $74.23 a barrel. Analysts warn the rally may be just the beginning if the conflict widens or if key oil infrastructure is hit. Energy traders are closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow but vital waterway through which 20–25 per cent of global oil supply and much of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass. While shipping continues through the strait for now, the growing conflict has increased the risk of disruption. Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumps roughly three million barrels of oil per day—approximately 3 per cent of global output—and has in the past threatened to close the Strait in response to Western actions. “If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, even temporarily, we’re looking at the biggest oil shock of all time,” Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, told Al Jazeera. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said it stands ready to release the 1.2 billion barrels of emergency reserves to stabilise supply. But OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais criticised the statement, warning that it could trigger unnecessary panic. IMF, Analysts warn of ripple effects The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that a 10 per cent rise in oil prices could increase global inflation by 0.4 percentage points and reduce global GDP growth by 0.15 percentage points. Traders are now pricing in a potential $20-40 spike in oil prices if the conflict escalates, particularly if Iran targets production facilities in Iraq or disrupts shipping lanes. For countries like India, which imports over 80 per cent of its crude oil needs, the stakes are especially high. A rise in oil prices directly feeds into higher fuel, transport, and manufacturing costs, raising inflation and weakening the rupee. This could widen India’s current account deficit and dampen foreign investment sentiment. Markets slide, safe havens surge Global equities reacted sharply to the news. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.9 per cent, the UK’s FTSE 100 closed 0.39 per cent lower, and US stocks tumbled—with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.79 per cent and the S&P 500 down 0.69 per cent. Meanwhile, gold surged 1.2 per cent to $3,423.30 an ounce, its highest level in two months, as investors sought refuge in traditional safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc. Analysts have warned that if Iranian production is disrupted, oil could reach $100 per barrel. However, they noted that such a spike may encourage other producers to ramp up supply, limiting the long-term inflationary impact. Some airlines have suspended flights to Tel Aviv and Tehran, while merchant ships are proceeding with caution through the Strait of Hormuz. Countries like Greece and the UK have issued advisories for vessels to avoid high-risk waters, including the Gulf of Aden. With geopolitical tensions escalating and oil markets on edge, the world may be entering a new phase of energy insecurity and economic fragility—one where supply shocks, inflation risks, and geopolitical brinkmanship are closely intertwined.

The price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged as much as 13 per cent on June 13, the steepest single-day jump since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.&nbsp;

Israel-Iran escalating tensions spark global oil shock, raise fears of fresh inflation wave