<p>From a strictly electoral perspective, the Scheduled Castes in Gujarat are not a very important factor. They constitute just seven per cent of the State&rsquo;s population. And since they are thinly spread across the State, their role in deciding the outcome of an election in the 182 Assembly seats is limited. Yet, their support is essential for both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress for a different reason. The BJP&rsquo;s &#39;Sab ka saath, sab ka vikas&#39; slogan would sound ineffectual if the Scheduled Castes failed to vote for the party. The Congress&rsquo;s &lsquo;pro-poor&rsquo; image would take a beating if it could not win over this most marginalised section of society.</p>

<p>On the other hand, the Scheduled Tribes form 15 per cent of the State&rsquo;s population. This significant presence alongside the fact that they are largely concentrated in eastern Gujarat, gives them political leverage in, at least, 25 Assembly constituencies in the general category. Besides, they are also important for the &lsquo;inclusive development&rsquo;, a message the two main political rivals in the State have adopted to sound credible.</p>

<p>Taken together, the 22 per cent they represent is a formidable number. Add to it the number of reserved seats they share between themselves &mdash; 40 in all, with 13 Assembly constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes and 27 for Scheduled Tribes &mdash; and it is evident that this taken together is crucial for any political party&rsquo;s prospects in the coming State election.</p>

<p>If this is true, there is another reality. It is that the two groups do not have a common leader who can optimally exploit the strength for political empowerment. Nor do the SC and ST groups have common concerns, other than the abstract desire to lead a life that has more of dignity and social justice. Political observers, and definitely political strategists, realise that sharply delineated issues and not generalities work in electoral campaigns.</p>

<p>The Scheduled Castes have, at least ostensibly, found a messiah in Jignesh Mevani. He came into the limelight after the Una incident in 2016, when a group of cow vigilantes professing Right-wing credentials attacked members of the &lsquo;low caste&rsquo; community. That turned him firmly against the BJP. Earlier, Mevani had led a number of protests demanding land rights for the Scheduled Castes, but in those days he had no political leaning &mdash; or at least he did not overtly display them. He positioned himself as a champion of the rights of the underprivileged and claimed to have no political ambition. But last month he filed his nomination from the Vadnagar reserved seat. The Congress has not fielded any candidate from the constituency though it has a sitting MLA from there, and has decided to back Mevani. The Scheduled Castes leader has also decided to support the Congress in its battle against the BJP.</p>

<p>While he has taken the political plunge, it may not be smooth sailing for him. Upset that a seat which their party has held has been given to a non-Congressman, many grassroots workers of the Congress are reportedly preparing to put a spanner in the works. The BJP is working overtime to exploit the situation to its benefit. In any case, his political relevance is only proportional to the percentage of Scheduled Castes population in the State, and the fact that he is involved in a contest of his own will curtail his ability to canvas for the Congress across the State.</p>

<p>There is a general perception that the Scheduled Castes in Gujarat have traditionally favoured the Congress. This is not borne out by the electoral result of the 2012 Assembly election. The BJP had then won in 10 of the 13 reserved constituencies. It remains to be seen whether, in the new context, the party retains the sway.</p>

<p>The Congress had performed better with the Scheduled Tribes. Of the 27 seats reserved for this group in 2012, the party had triumphed in 16. The BJP had secured 10 seats while one went to the Janata Dal (United) candidate, Chotubhai Vasava. In the 2007 Assembly election, there were 26 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes, of which the Congress had won 16 and the BJP, nine; one seat had then too gone to the Janata Dal (United). The BJP&rsquo;s situation was worse in the 1998 election, when it could win only eight of the 26 seats.</p>

<p>The Bhil community is the single largest constituent of the Scheduled Tribes, forming an overwhelming 45 per cent. The other important sub-group is the Bhopa Rabari whose members are largely concentrated in north Gujarat. It is no surprise that the two national parties are putting everything they have to get the approval of these two communities especially and the Scheduled Tribes in general.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Congress is banking on the &lsquo;failure&rsquo; of successive BJP regimes in the State to effectively implement the Forest Rights Act of 2006, which was supposed to provide title deeds of land claimed by the tribals under this law. Although nearly 70 per cent of disputed claims forwarded under the Act have been settled in the State, Gujarat still lags behind other States in the matter. According to a Union Ministry of Tribal Affairs data, the Gujarat Government had managed to distribute land to just 38 per cent of the claimants. This is the record, the Congress has claimed, of the BJP regime and reflects the latter&rsquo;s neglect of tribal rights.</p>

<p>But the BJP is confident that the surge of tribal support it has seen since 1998 will continue. It has been pulling out all stops to win over the Scheduled Tribes. Only recently, a tribal museum opened in Surat with a grant of one crore rupees from the University Grants Commission. While speaking at a public meeting recently in Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the contribution of tribal leaders in the country&rsquo;s freedom movement. He laid the foundation stone for a tribal museum close to the Sardar Sarovar dam in Narmada district, and promised more such museums across the country.</p>

<p>The BJP&rsquo;s push for tribal support has also to do with the Hardik Patel factor. Realising that some of the Patidar votes may migrate from its camp to the Congress, now supported by Patidar leader Hardik Patel, the BJP is keen to make up for the deficit through enhanced votes from the Scheduled Tribes. It has placed hopes in the work that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been doing in the tribal belt of the State over the years. However, the Congress is in no mood to give up its advantage. If it can hold on to its support base among the Scheduled Tribes and Hardik Patel manages to deliver on his promise, the BJP could be at some disadvantage.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p><em>(Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).</em></p>


Realising that some of the Patidar votes may migrate from its camp to the Congress, now supported by Patidar leader Hardik Patel, the BJP is keen to make up for the deficit through enhanced votes from the Scheduled Tribes.

From a strictly electoral perspective, the Scheduled Castes in Gujarat are not a very important factor. They constitute just seven per cent of the State’s population. And since they are thinly spread across the State, their role in deciding the outcome of an election in the 182 Assembly seats is limited. Yet, their support is essential for both the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress for a different reason. The BJP’s 'Sab ka saath, sab ka vikas' slogan would sound ineffectual if the Scheduled Castes failed to vote for the party. The Congress’s ‘pro-poor’ image would take a beating if it could not win over this most marginalised section of society. On the other hand, the Scheduled Tribes form 15 per cent of the State’s population. This significant presence alongside the fact that they are largely concentrated in eastern Gujarat, gives them political leverage in, at least, 25 Assembly constituencies in the general category. Besides, they are also important for the ‘inclusive development’, a message the two main political rivals in the State have adopted to sound credible. Taken together, the 22 per cent they represent is a formidable number. Add to it the number of reserved seats they share between themselves — 40 in all, with 13 Assembly constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes and 27 for Scheduled Tribes — and it is evident that this taken together is crucial for any political party’s prospects in the coming State election. If this is true, there is another reality. It is that the two groups do not have a common leader who can optimally exploit the strength for political empowerment. Nor do the SC and ST groups have common concerns, other than the abstract desire to lead a life that has more of dignity and social justice. Political observers, and definitely political strategists, realise that sharply delineated issues and not generalities work in electoral campaigns. The Scheduled Castes have, at least ostensibly, found a messiah in Jignesh Mevani. He came into the limelight after the Una incident in 2016, when a group of cow vigilantes professing Right-wing credentials attacked members of the ‘low caste’ community. That turned him firmly against the BJP. Earlier, Mevani had led a number of protests demanding land rights for the Scheduled Castes, but in those days he had no political leaning — or at least he did not overtly display them. He positioned himself as a champion of the rights of the underprivileged and claimed to have no political ambition. But last month he filed his nomination from the Vadnagar reserved seat. The Congress has not fielded any candidate from the constituency though it has a sitting MLA from there, and has decided to back Mevani. The Scheduled Castes leader has also decided to support the Congress in its battle against the BJP. While he has taken the political plunge, it may not be smooth sailing for him. Upset that a seat which their party has held has been given to a non-Congressman, many grassroots workers of the Congress are reportedly preparing to put a spanner in the works. The BJP is working overtime to exploit the situation to its benefit. In any case, his political relevance is only proportional to the percentage of Scheduled Castes population in the State, and the fact that he is involved in a contest of his own will curtail his ability to canvas for the Congress across the State. There is a general perception that the Scheduled Castes in Gujarat have traditionally favoured the Congress. This is not borne out by the electoral result of the 2012 Assembly election. The BJP had then won in 10 of the 13 reserved constituencies. It remains to be seen whether, in the new context, the party retains the sway. The Congress had performed better with the Scheduled Tribes. Of the 27 seats reserved for this group in 2012, the party had triumphed in 16. The BJP had secured 10 seats while one went to the Janata Dal (United) candidate, Chotubhai Vasava. In the 2007 Assembly election, there were 26 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes, of which the Congress had won 16 and the BJP, nine; one seat had then too gone to the Janata Dal (United). The BJP’s situation was worse in the 1998 election, when it could win only eight of the 26 seats. The Bhil community is the single largest constituent of the Scheduled Tribes, forming an overwhelming 45 per cent. The other important sub-group is the Bhopa Rabari whose members are largely concentrated in north Gujarat. It is no surprise that the two national parties are putting everything they have to get the approval of these two communities especially and the Scheduled Tribes in general. The Congress is banking on the ‘failure’ of successive BJP regimes in the State to effectively implement the Forest Rights Act of 2006, which was supposed to provide title deeds of land claimed by the tribals under this law. Although nearly 70 per cent of disputed claims forwarded under the Act have been settled in the State, Gujarat still lags behind other States in the matter. According to a Union Ministry of Tribal Affairs data, the Gujarat Government had managed to distribute land to just 38 per cent of the claimants. This is the record, the Congress has claimed, of the BJP regime and reflects the latter’s neglect of tribal rights. But the BJP is confident that the surge of tribal support it has seen since 1998 will continue. It has been pulling out all stops to win over the Scheduled Tribes. Only recently, a tribal museum opened in Surat with a grant of one crore rupees from the University Grants Commission. While speaking at a public meeting recently in Gujarat, Prime Minister Narendra Modi hailed the contribution of tribal leaders in the country’s freedom movement. He laid the foundation stone for a tribal museum close to the Sardar Sarovar dam in Narmada district, and promised more such museums across the country. The BJP’s push for tribal support has also to do with the Hardik Patel factor. Realising that some of the Patidar votes may migrate from its camp to the Congress, now supported by Patidar leader Hardik Patel, the BJP is keen to make up for the deficit through enhanced votes from the Scheduled Tribes. It has placed hopes in the work that the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has been doing in the tribal belt of the State over the years. However, the Congress is in no mood to give up its advantage. If it can hold on to its support base among the Scheduled Tribes and Hardik Patel manages to deliver on his promise, the BJP could be at some disadvantage. (Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity).

Opinion: BJP trying to win over tribal communities in Gujarat. Why?

<p>An Ahmedabad-based journalist quipped that the Congress had taken to HAJ this Assembly election in Gujarat. His reference was to the Hardik (Patel)-Alpesh (Thakore)-Jignesh (Mevani) trio which has cast its lot with the party and on whose traction the Congress is seeking to return to power after more than two decades in the State.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Hardik and Jignesh have their own reasons for opposing the Bharatiya Janata Party. The Patidar leader wants reservations for his community which the BJP is unwilling to commit to. He is also upset with the state action against the pro-quota demonstrations over the last couple of years.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Jignesh is a Scheduled Castes leader and is fuming over the Una incident in which a cow vigilante group had publicly flogged members of the caste in July last year, with the State authorities allegedly doing little to punish the culprits and certain members of the Union Government terming the matter as a &ldquo;small incident&rdquo;.</p>

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<h5>There is no indication that the other intermediate castes which are part of the OBCs are necessarily backing Alpesh Thakore, though he claims to be the leader of the larger OBC formulation.</h5>
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<p>But why is Alpesh Thakore a member of this bandwagon? The community he represents is part of the Other Backward Class (OBC) which enjoys the reservation benefit. His grievance, therefore, is not in common with that of Hardik Patel&rsquo;s. There have been no serious reported cases of violence or discrimination against the OBCs in Gujarat during the BJP rule, and, thus, he has no cause to fret like Jignesh Mevani. It is this lack of a definable purpose that makes Alpesh the odd man out. And yet, he has had his share of glory under the sun when he was recently inducted into the Congress at a high-profile function in the presence of no less a figure than Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi.</p>

<p>The OBCs comprise around 40 per cent of the State&rsquo;s population and they are spread across Gujarat, which makes them all the more critical in terms of seats. It is generally believed that the OBCs can influence results in more than 70 of the Assembly 182 seats &mdash; higher than any other single group can. But the Thakore community is only one of the many OBCs. In itself, it cannot make any major difference to electoral results. There is also no indication that the other intermediate castes which are part of the OBCs are necessarily backing Alpesh Thakore, though he claims to be the leader of the larger OBC formulation.</p>

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<h5>My taxi driver in Ahmedabad, a Thakore, put it bluntly that he was both OBC and Kshatriya, depending on the situation!</h5>
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<p>Besides, there is a caste confusion which makes the situation more complex. The Thakore community sees itself as part of the larger Kshatriya grouping &mdash; something which the latter resents. Other members of the OBC also view this tactic as a Thakore ploy to have the best of both worlds. My taxi driver in Ahmedabad, a Thakore, put it bluntly that he was both OBC and Kshatriya, depending on the situation! The Thakores may not be as well off as the Patidars but they are also not so marginalised as to be seen as credible victims of State apathy.</p>

<p>The Thakore community has, generally, voted for the Congress in previous elections, and so Alpesh Thakore&rsquo;s decision to align with the party this time should not surprise anyone. This is the only explanation which is on offer, but it does not still explain what Alpesh has against the BJP or what the issues are which he plans to raise before the voters in favour of the Congress or against the BJP. Up until now, he has been merely harping on generalities: Voters want a change after two decades of BJP rule; the ruling party has ignored the marginalised; the Congress has traditionally been a well-wisher of the weaker sections of society, etc.</p>

<p>Alpesh Thakore faces another problem, which is personal. He is seen as a rank opportunist, and even his supporters this columnist spoke to in Mehsana, and a few who hailed from Rajkot, admit that the youth leader had been less than transparent in his political stance. Months before he joined the Congress, Alpesh had reportedly confabulated with senior BJP leaders, including Amit Shah. The talks were to work out a deal for providing Assembly tickets to OBC &mdash; and especially Thakore community &mdash; leaders.&nbsp;</p>

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<h5>The failure to strike an arrangement with the BJP led Alpesh Thakore to the Congress, which was all too happy to snap him up.</h5>
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<p>Nothing came out of Alpesh&#39;s discussion with the BJP, probably for two reasons. The first is that Alpesh Thakore may have demanded more than what the party could offer to his outfit, the OBC, SC and ST (OSS) Ekta Manch. The second is that the BJP believed its own pro-OBC credentials were strong enough &mdash; Prime Minister Narendra Modi belongs to the OBC &mdash; and that it need not have to give in to the demands of a newcomer. The failure to strike an arrangement with the BJP led Alpesh Thakore to the Congress, which was all too happy to snap him up.</p>

<p>People also snigger than Alpesh Thakore is a BJP creation who was programmed to blunt the Hardik Patel factor but has now turned hostile. There may be an element of truth in this. But this raises another question. With the Patidars and the OBCs to which the Thakores belong, working at cross-purposes at the grassroots level for years, how will the convergence of votes between them happen? Alpesh Thakore rose to prominence alongside Hardik Patel when he opposed the Patidar agitation for reservations, but along the way he suddenly got himself added to the camp which housed the Patidar leader. The non-Thakore communities are not amused.</p>

<p>Alpesh Thakore&rsquo;s credibility (or lack of it, according to his detractors) is what will determine the success of his alignment with the Congress. Indeed, the demonstration of credibility is his strongest challenge. Until months ago, he had claimed to be equidistant from both the Congress and the BJP, and fully committed to the cause of OBC welfare. He wanted a Ram temple in Gujarat and a ban on cow slaughter. He blamed both the Congress and the BJP for a host of social problems, and wanted the prohibition policy to be more stringently implemented in Gujarat.</p>

<p>But that is all in the past, and Alpesh Thakore is now one of the star campaigners of the Congress in the State. It is possible that some of his star attraction may rub off on a few of the other OBCs, besides his own community. Will it be good enough for the Congress, remains to be seen? Meanwhile, the OBC leader can continue with his vague promises on equally vague issues. As the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev said, &ldquo;Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build bridges even when there are no rivers.&rdquo;</p>

<p><em>(Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity)</em></p>


Alpesh wanted a Ram temple in Gujarat and a ban on cow slaughter. He blamed both the Congress and the BJP for a host of social problems, and wanted the prohibition policy to be more stringently implemented in Gujarat.

An Ahmedabad-based journalist quipped that the Congress had taken to HAJ this Assembly election in Gujarat. His reference was to the Hardik (Patel)-Alpesh (Thakore)-Jignesh (Mevani) trio which has cast its lot with the party and on whose traction the Congress is seeking to return to power after more than two decades in the State. Hardik and Jignesh have their own reasons for opposing the Bharatiya Janata Party. The Patidar leader wants reservations for his community which the BJP is unwilling to commit to. He is also upset with the state action against the pro-quota demonstrations over the last couple of years. Jignesh is a Scheduled Castes leader and is fuming over the Una incident in which a cow vigilante group had publicly flogged members of the caste in July last year, with the State authorities allegedly doing little to punish the culprits and certain members of the Union Government terming the matter as a “small incident”. There is no indication that the other intermediate castes which are part of the OBCs are necessarily backing Alpesh Thakore, though he claims to be the leader of the larger OBC formulation. × But why is Alpesh Thakore a member of this bandwagon? The community he represents is part of the Other Backward Class (OBC) which enjoys the reservation benefit. His grievance, therefore, is not in common with that of Hardik Patel’s. There have been no serious reported cases of violence or discrimination against the OBCs in Gujarat during the BJP rule, and, thus, he has no cause to fret like Jignesh Mevani. It is this lack of a definable purpose that makes Alpesh the odd man out. And yet, he has had his share of glory under the sun when he was recently inducted into the Congress at a high-profile function in the presence of no less a figure than Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi. The OBCs comprise around 40 per cent of the State’s population and they are spread across Gujarat, which makes them all the more critical in terms of seats. It is generally believed that the OBCs can influence results in more than 70 of the Assembly 182 seats — higher than any other single group can. But the Thakore community is only one of the many OBCs. In itself, it cannot make any major difference to electoral results. There is also no indication that the other intermediate castes which are part of the OBCs are necessarily backing Alpesh Thakore, though he claims to be the leader of the larger OBC formulation. My taxi driver in Ahmedabad, a Thakore, put it bluntly that he was both OBC and Kshatriya, depending on the situation! × Besides, there is a caste confusion which makes the situation more complex. The Thakore community sees itself as part of the larger Kshatriya grouping — something which the latter resents. Other members of the OBC also view this tactic as a Thakore ploy to have the best of both worlds. My taxi driver in Ahmedabad, a Thakore, put it bluntly that he was both OBC and Kshatriya, depending on the situation! The Thakores may not be as well off as the Patidars but they are also not so marginalised as to be seen as credible victims of State apathy. The Thakore community has, generally, voted for the Congress in previous elections, and so Alpesh Thakore’s decision to align with the party this time should not surprise anyone. This is the only explanation which is on offer, but it does not still explain what Alpesh has against the BJP or what the issues are which he plans to raise before the voters in favour of the Congress or against the BJP. Up until now, he has been merely harping on generalities: Voters want a change after two decades of BJP rule; the ruling party has ignored the marginalised; the Congress has traditionally been a well-wisher of the weaker sections of society, etc. Alpesh Thakore faces another problem, which is personal. He is seen as a rank opportunist, and even his supporters this columnist spoke to in Mehsana, and a few who hailed from Rajkot, admit that the youth leader had been less than transparent in his political stance. Months before he joined the Congress, Alpesh had reportedly confabulated with senior BJP leaders, including Amit Shah. The talks were to work out a deal for providing Assembly tickets to OBC — and especially Thakore community — leaders. The failure to strike an arrangement with the BJP led Alpesh Thakore to the Congress, which was all too happy to snap him up. × Nothing came out of Alpesh's discussion with the BJP, probably for two reasons. The first is that Alpesh Thakore may have demanded more than what the party could offer to his outfit, the OBC, SC and ST (OSS) Ekta Manch. The second is that the BJP believed its own pro-OBC credentials were strong enough — Prime Minister Narendra Modi belongs to the OBC — and that it need not have to give in to the demands of a newcomer. The failure to strike an arrangement with the BJP led Alpesh Thakore to the Congress, which was all too happy to snap him up. People also snigger than Alpesh Thakore is a BJP creation who was programmed to blunt the Hardik Patel factor but has now turned hostile. There may be an element of truth in this. But this raises another question. With the Patidars and the OBCs to which the Thakores belong, working at cross-purposes at the grassroots level for years, how will the convergence of votes between them happen? Alpesh Thakore rose to prominence alongside Hardik Patel when he opposed the Patidar agitation for reservations, but along the way he suddenly got himself added to the camp which housed the Patidar leader. The non-Thakore communities are not amused. Alpesh Thakore’s credibility (or lack of it, according to his detractors) is what will determine the success of his alignment with the Congress. Indeed, the demonstration of credibility is his strongest challenge. Until months ago, he had claimed to be equidistant from both the Congress and the BJP, and fully committed to the cause of OBC welfare. He wanted a Ram temple in Gujarat and a ban on cow slaughter. He blamed both the Congress and the BJP for a host of social problems, and wanted the prohibition policy to be more stringently implemented in Gujarat. But that is all in the past, and Alpesh Thakore is now one of the star campaigners of the Congress in the State. It is possible that some of his star attraction may rub off on a few of the other OBCs, besides his own community. Will it be good enough for the Congress, remains to be seen? Meanwhile, the OBC leader can continue with his vague promises on equally vague issues. As the Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev said, “Politicians are the same all over. They promise to build bridges even when there are no rivers.” (Disclaimer: The author writes here in a personal capacity)

Opinion: Alpesh Thakore's main drawback is lack of credibility

<p>&quot;When I gave the taxi driver at Ahmedabad airport the name of a nondescript hotel as my address, he looked at me pityingly and asked, &ldquo;Chota-mota dhanda hai (Are you engaged in petty business)? I readily agreed and said I was in the business of journalism and had come to study the election; I had been there in 2012 also. He perked up and in the course of the 40-minute journey assured me that change would happen in Gujarat. &ldquo;The BJP will be voted out. Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakore will ensure that.&rdquo;&nbsp;</p>

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<h5>Across north Gujarat and Saurashtra, the Patidars were backing Hardik Patel&rsquo;s reservation agenda and would vote against the BJP.</h5>
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<p>Is Hardik Patel really a challenge, I asked. Does he command the majority support of the Patidar community, I wondered. The taxi driver responded, &ldquo;If he were not a challenge, why is the BJP doing so much to discredit him? And why has the party launched a desperate drive to retain the Patel votes?&rdquo; Across north Gujarat and Saurashtra, he claimed, the Patidars were backing Hardik Patel&rsquo;s reservation agenda and would vote against the BJP.</p>

<p>I assumed by his stiff defence of the young Patel leader that he was a votary of reservation for the Patidar community in the State. His answer was surprising. &ldquo;The Patidars don&rsquo;t deserve reservation. They are financially, educationally and socially well off.&rdquo; Before I could respond, he added, &ldquo;You must be amazed. I am backing Hardik Patel because he is today in my community leader Alpesh Thakore&rsquo;s side.&quot;</p>

<p>The Thakores belong to the Other Backward Class (OBC), and the taxi driver was a Thakore. He strongly suggested that I move around extensively in Mehsana, Patan, Sabarkantha and other parts of north Gujarat, and Ahmedabad too. &ldquo; You will realise that I am right. The BJP will lose this time. You came five years ago, but things are very different today.&rdquo; I assured him that I would visit as many of the places he had advised.&nbsp;</p>

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<h5>BJP will emerge with a simple majority (100-plus seats) and form the Government yet again.</h5>
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<p>But after moving around throughout the day across the length and breadth of Ahmedabad (Thaltej, Vastrapur, Naranpur etc) and in Patan and Mehsana, the impression I had was far from the kind the taxi driver had predicted. The driver represented one kind of extreme outcome which found resonance among a clutch of people on the streets &mdash; the BJP&rsquo;s rout. A few others I spoke to in these towns and adjoining villages presented another extreme &mdash; that the ruling party would return to power with even more seats than it had in 2012.</p>

<p>Most of the people with whom I interacted on the subject foresaw a &lsquo;moderate&rsquo; outcome. They were agreed on three conclusions. The first is that the Hardik Patel factor has gained some traction for the Congress. The second is that the Patidar leader will cut into the Patel vote-bank of the BJP. The third is that, despite these setbacks, the BJP will emerge with a simple majority (100-plus seats) and form the Government yet again.</p>

<p>What also became evident through my interactions in Ahmedabad, Patan and Mehsana is that, at the ground level the Patidar and the Thakore communities do not see eye to eye. This is easy to understand. The Thakores belonging to the OBC resent the prospect of having to share the quota pie with the dominant Patels. It&rsquo;s not ideology that binds them together now; the desire to oust the BJP compels them to share the tent.</p>

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<h5>The turning point for the Patidars, according to a resident of Thaltej locality in Ahmedabad, was the crackdown by the State police on Patidar agitators in August 2015.</h5>
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<p>The turning point for the Patidars, according to a resident of Thaltej locality in Ahmedabad, was the crackdown by the State police on Patidar agitators in August 2015. Fourteen people had died in the violence. The subsequent action against Hardik Patel, including his incarceration and banishment from Gujarat for a while, was viewed as a humiliation of a proud community which had stood by the BJP for decades.</p>

<p>Or at least this is how the Patidar community led by Hardik Patel presented it before his people. The sentiment is echoed by Babubhai Patel, an elderly local in Mehsana. &ldquo;The BJP Government really brutalised the Patidar community through its action. The lathi-charge cannot be forgotten. We would not have turned against the party but for this act of atrocity.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The Thaltej resident, who belongs to the OBC and did not wish to be named, remarked, &ldquo;It&rsquo;s not that the Congress is liked by us. It has been disastrous for Gujarat in the past. But if it can manage Hardik Patel properly, it can gain significantly.&rdquo; The anti-BJP sentiment, according to him, the taxi driver and a few&nbsp;other spoken to, is such that the voters are willing to ignore the development work BJP regimes have done over the years, and the failures of the Congress too.&nbsp;</p>

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<p>Was this an all-pervasive mood? Not really. The manager of the hotel I stayed in, and who appeared politically well-informed, smirked at the proposition. &ldquo;Do not over-estimate Hardik Patel,&rdquo; he warned. &ldquo;Because of his youth and enthusiasm and Congress support, he has begun to look larger-than-life. The Patidar outfit he heads is not the only Patel organisation that exists. There are others and those are as important. They are with the BJP. The Patidar votes will split, true, but not to the extent that the divide can harm the ruling party greatly.&rdquo;</p>

<p>He said that the Patels were an educated lot and socially aware, and they realise that Hardik Patel was leading them up the garden path with his promise of reservation. &ldquo;How can he ensure his community reservation? The 50 per cent mark is already touched. The Congress&rsquo;s assurance is only on paper. It cannot be implemented.&rdquo; This line or reasoning was incidentally shared by several middle-aged and senior citizens.</p>

<p>But everyone is agreed upon the fact that Hardik Patel has taken a big risk and that things can go wrong. If the Congress fails to give the Patidars a credible and actionable plan of action for reservations, for instance. Or, if the Patels, who have been inextricably linked to the BJP for their socio-economic development and who now back Hardik Patel, develop cold feet over the disruption that may happen in case they vote against the BJP, keep themselves away from the polling booth. Or, if the Congress does not give the Hardik Patel-led organisation, the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) a fair number of seats to contest.&nbsp;</p>

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<p>There is another danger, which even Hardik Patel&rsquo;s supporters acknowledge, even if grudgingly: That of Prime Minister Narendra Modi&rsquo;s ability to swing fence-sitting Patidar votes in his party&rsquo;s favour through a series of aggressive campaigns in the region. A 65-year old voter in Patan town remarked, &ldquo;Modi sabka magaj ghuma dega (Modi can change people&rsquo;s minds in his favour), adding, &ldquo;Also, don&rsquo;t forget the Gujarati pride (which the Prime Minister symbolises) issue.&rdquo;</p>

<p>Although Mehsana had been the focal point of the Patidar agitation, opinion there is not overwhelmingly against the BJP &mdash; or at least not as decisively as one might have expected. A 25-something (Patel) civil engineer who has ventured into the construction business said that while Hardik Patel was shrewd and manipulative, the BJP led by Modi &ldquo;can manage things at the last moment&rdquo;. He supported Hardik Patel&rsquo;s demand for reservation. &ldquo;Patidars need quota not so much in Government employment (we Patels either have land or are engaged in business or are salaried employees) but in educational institutions.</p>

<p>Why should we lose out to those who are less merited but get through because of quotas?&rdquo; On the other hand, a shop-keeper, vociferously supported by a bunch of youngsters around him, bluntly said, &ldquo;Hardik Patel cannot be trusted. He is neither mature nor responsible.&rdquo;</p>

<p>The sense of ambivalence that was reflected across Ahmedabad and in Patan and Mehsana towns, was replaced by clarity in the small Pimpal village, situated on the Mehsana-Patan road. Phulabhai Jeevabhai Rabari is a 30-year old who is engaged in the dairy business. The Rabari community belongs to the OBC and is a beneficiary of the quota system.</p>

<p>He made light of the benefit and claimed that it made no difference to youngsters like him. &ldquo;We live by our skills and hard work. I don&rsquo;t like the reservation business.&rdquo; The Congress and the Hardik Patel-led Patidars, he said, represented the privileged system, while the BJP under Modi stood for inclusive development. &ldquo;The 2017 election is about development versus reservation&rdquo;, Phulabhai stated. A motley group of villagers seconded the opinion.</p>

<p>Perhaps Phulabhai hit the nail on the head. It does appear that the Assembly poll is just that.</p>


The Congress and the Hardik Patel-led Patidars represented the privileged system, while the BJP under Modi stood for inclusive development.

"When I gave the taxi driver at Ahmedabad airport the name of a nondescript hotel as my address, he looked at me pityingly and asked, “Chota-mota dhanda hai (Are you engaged in petty business)? I readily agreed and said I was in the business of journalism and had come to study the election; I had been there in 2012 also. He perked up and in the course of the 40-minute journey assured me that change would happen in Gujarat. “The BJP will be voted out. Hardik Patel and Alpesh Thakore will ensure that.” Across north Gujarat and Saurashtra, the Patidars were backing Hardik Patel’s reservation agenda and would vote against the BJP. × Is Hardik Patel really a challenge, I asked. Does he command the majority support of the Patidar community, I wondered. The taxi driver responded, “If he were not a challenge, why is the BJP doing so much to discredit him? And why has the party launched a desperate drive to retain the Patel votes?” Across north Gujarat and Saurashtra, he claimed, the Patidars were backing Hardik Patel’s reservation agenda and would vote against the BJP. I assumed by his stiff defence of the young Patel leader that he was a votary of reservation for the Patidar community in the State. His answer was surprising. “The Patidars don’t deserve reservation. They are financially, educationally and socially well off.” Before I could respond, he added, “You must be amazed. I am backing Hardik Patel because he is today in my community leader Alpesh Thakore’s side." The Thakores belong to the Other Backward Class (OBC), and the taxi driver was a Thakore. He strongly suggested that I move around extensively in Mehsana, Patan, Sabarkantha and other parts of north Gujarat, and Ahmedabad too. “ You will realise that I am right. The BJP will lose this time. You came five years ago, but things are very different today.” I assured him that I would visit as many of the places he had advised. BJP will emerge with a simple majority (100-plus seats) and form the Government yet again. × But after moving around throughout the day across the length and breadth of Ahmedabad (Thaltej, Vastrapur, Naranpur etc) and in Patan and Mehsana, the impression I had was far from the kind the taxi driver had predicted. The driver represented one kind of extreme outcome which found resonance among a clutch of people on the streets — the BJP’s rout. A few others I spoke to in these towns and adjoining villages presented another extreme — that the ruling party would return to power with even more seats than it had in 2012. Most of the people with whom I interacted on the subject foresaw a ‘moderate’ outcome. They were agreed on three conclusions. The first is that the Hardik Patel factor has gained some traction for the Congress. The second is that the Patidar leader will cut into the Patel vote-bank of the BJP. The third is that, despite these setbacks, the BJP will emerge with a simple majority (100-plus seats) and form the Government yet again. What also became evident through my interactions in Ahmedabad, Patan and Mehsana is that, at the ground level the Patidar and the Thakore communities do not see eye to eye. This is easy to understand. The Thakores belonging to the OBC resent the prospect of having to share the quota pie with the dominant Patels. It’s not ideology that binds them together now; the desire to oust the BJP compels them to share the tent. The turning point for the Patidars, according to a resident of Thaltej locality in Ahmedabad, was the crackdown by the State police on Patidar agitators in August 2015. × The turning point for the Patidars, according to a resident of Thaltej locality in Ahmedabad, was the crackdown by the State police on Patidar agitators in August 2015. Fourteen people had died in the violence. The subsequent action against Hardik Patel, including his incarceration and banishment from Gujarat for a while, was viewed as a humiliation of a proud community which had stood by the BJP for decades. Or at least this is how the Patidar community led by Hardik Patel presented it before his people. The sentiment is echoed by Babubhai Patel, an elderly local in Mehsana. “The BJP Government really brutalised the Patidar community through its action. The lathi-charge cannot be forgotten. We would not have turned against the party but for this act of atrocity.” The Thaltej resident, who belongs to the OBC and did not wish to be named, remarked, “It’s not that the Congress is liked by us. It has been disastrous for Gujarat in the past. But if it can manage Hardik Patel properly, it can gain significantly.” The anti-BJP sentiment, according to him, the taxi driver and a few other spoken to, is such that the voters are willing to ignore the development work BJP regimes have done over the years, and the failures of the Congress too. Although Mehsana had been the focal point of the Patidar agitation, opinion there is not overwhelmingly against the BJP × Was this an all-pervasive mood? Not really. The manager of the hotel I stayed in, and who appeared politically well-informed, smirked at the proposition. “Do not over-estimate Hardik Patel,” he warned. “Because of his youth and enthusiasm and Congress support, he has begun to look larger-than-life. The Patidar outfit he heads is not the only Patel organisation that exists. There are others and those are as important. They are with the BJP. The Patidar votes will split, true, but not to the extent that the divide can harm the ruling party greatly.” He said that the Patels were an educated lot and socially aware, and they realise that Hardik Patel was leading them up the garden path with his promise of reservation. “How can he ensure his community reservation? The 50 per cent mark is already touched. The Congress’s assurance is only on paper. It cannot be implemented.” This line or reasoning was incidentally shared by several middle-aged and senior citizens. But everyone is agreed upon the fact that Hardik Patel has taken a big risk and that things can go wrong. If the Congress fails to give the Patidars a credible and actionable plan of action for reservations, for instance. Or, if the Patels, who have been inextricably linked to the BJP for their socio-economic development and who now back Hardik Patel, develop cold feet over the disruption that may happen in case they vote against the BJP, keep themselves away from the polling booth. Or, if the Congress does not give the Hardik Patel-led organisation, the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) a fair number of seats to contest. The Congress and the Hardik Patel-led Patidars, he said, represented the privileged system, while the BJP under Modi stood for inclusive development. × There is another danger, which even Hardik Patel’s supporters acknowledge, even if grudgingly: That of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ability to swing fence-sitting Patidar votes in his party’s favour through a series of aggressive campaigns in the region. A 65-year old voter in Patan town remarked, “Modi sabka magaj ghuma dega (Modi can change people’s minds in his favour), adding, “Also, don’t forget the Gujarati pride (which the Prime Minister symbolises) issue.” Although Mehsana had been the focal point of the Patidar agitation, opinion there is not overwhelmingly against the BJP — or at least not as decisively as one might have expected. A 25-something (Patel) civil engineer who has ventured into the construction business said that while Hardik Patel was shrewd and manipulative, the BJP led by Modi “can manage things at the last moment”. He supported Hardik Patel’s demand for reservation. “Patidars need quota not so much in Government employment (we Patels either have land or are engaged in business or are salaried employees) but in educational institutions. Why should we lose out to those who are less merited but get through because of quotas?” On the other hand, a shop-keeper, vociferously supported by a bunch of youngsters around him, bluntly said, “Hardik Patel cannot be trusted. He is neither mature nor responsible.” The sense of ambivalence that was reflected across Ahmedabad and in Patan and Mehsana towns, was replaced by clarity in the small Pimpal village, situated on the Mehsana-Patan road. Phulabhai Jeevabhai Rabari is a 30-year old who is engaged in the dairy business. The Rabari community belongs to the OBC and is a beneficiary of the quota system. He made light of the benefit and claimed that it made no difference to youngsters like him. “We live by our skills and hard work. I don’t like the reservation business.” The Congress and the Hardik Patel-led Patidars, he said, represented the privileged system, while the BJP under Modi stood for inclusive development. “The 2017 election is about development versus reservation”, Phulabhai stated. A motley group of villagers seconded the opinion. Perhaps Phulabhai hit the nail on the head. It does appear that the Assembly poll is just that.

2017 Gujarat election: Development vs reservation

<p>The politics of caste has always been there in Gujarat like it has existed elsewhere in the country. But never before in the last two decades has it assumed a pole position in the manner that it has in the ongoing Assembly election campaign. What makes the development more interesting is that it is neither of the two major competitors &mdash; the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party &mdash; which is the driver.</p>

<p>The thrust is being engineered by three caste leaders who are upstarts and hope to, in the process, gain a pan-State relevance. Since they have decided to oppose the BJP, the Congress has latched on to them. And, the issue is not only one of caste calculations but of caste reservations.</p>

<p>Having jumped on to the caste bandwagon, the Congress cannot now turn back. Therefore, it is busy crafting the KHAM 2.0 version in the hope that this will shut down the BJP&rsquo;s page in the State. It was in the 1980s that senior Congress leader and four-time Chief Minister Madhav Singh Solanki along with Congressman Jinabhai Darji formulated the Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim (KHAM) grouping. It served his party well.</p>

<p>The Congress won the Assembly election in 1981, bagging 156 seats &mdash; an achievement which the BJP has been straining to match. The winning formula worked for several years before the BJP took over Gujarat and reduced the KHAM phenomenon to ashes. The combination eventually lost out because it alienated the others, especially the upper castes and the influential Patidar community whom the BJP courted with success. The 2014 Lok Sabha election decimated whatever had remained of this coalition, with the BJP winning all the 26 seats on offer in the State. The new revived KHAM version includes the Patidars.</p>

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<p>On the face of it, KHAM-plus-Patidar is a formidable formulation. The Patidar community represents a little over 12 per cent of the State&rsquo;s population; the Muslims comprise roughly 10 per cent, and the Adivasi community is around 15 per cent (the Scheduled Castes are eight per cent or so). The Kshatriyas in Gujarat are a mixed lot &mdash; the Koli people consider themselves as Kshatriyas, and so do a few others. But the success of KHAM 2.0 depends more on paper calculations. Will the chemistry complement the mathematics?</p>

<p>It stands to reason that the OBCs who are present beneficiaries of the reservation policy will not be amused by the demands of aspiring entrants. This could be more pronounced in the Patidar case, given that the Patidars are seen to have gained considerably over the decades, socially, educationally and economically, and are considered unworthy of the &lsquo;positive discrimination&rsquo; they now demand.</p>

<p>Additionally, if the Patidars become part of the Congress&rsquo;s KHAM 2.0, it would need a resolution of the long-standing conflict between the Patidar community and the rest, especially the main religious minority &mdash; the Muslims. Whether it was during the 2002 communal violence or thereafter, the Patidars backed the BJP and the then Chief Minister Narendra Modi.</p>

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<p>It is one thing for a bunch of Patidar leaders, such as Hardik Patel and the Congress to align with each other. The real test lies in the alliance&rsquo;s acceptance among the people at the lower levels. Uttar Pradesh provides a good example. Congress&rsquo;s Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party&rsquo;s Akhilesh Yadav formed a coalition, but the understanding did not strike a chord at the local levels of the leadership. Neither was it seen as credible among the caste voters of both the groups. The Congress-SP combine faced a rout.</p>

<p>Besides, dissatisfaction among large sections of the traditional voters of the BJP need not automatically lead to their casting votes against the party. For instance, major opinion polls conducted so far in the State have noted considerable levels of unhappiness with the Government on a host of issues, including the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax and the demonetisation decision. And yet, the projected anger does not get reflected in the overall numbers the surveys projected &mdash; with the BJP doing nearly as well as it did in 2012.</p>

<p>However, none of the above arguments can be reason enough to dismiss the challenge the BJP faces in the wake the new caste coalition. The BJP cannot wish away the thought of the Congress reviving the KHAM coalition, strengthened with the addition of a good chunk of the OBCs and the Patidars. Nor can it shut its eyes to the traction that the trio of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor (OBC leader) and Jignesh Mevani (Scheduled Castes leader) has gained and their pronounced tilt in the Congress&rsquo;s favour.</p>

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<p>Some commentators may have gone overboard in comparing their combined assault against the BJP to the India Against Corruption movement Anna Hazare had launched four years ago. But it is a fact that the three have managed to sway public opinion in their favour at least in their strongholds. Mevani seeks to make a mark in Ahmedabad and nearabout; Patel in and around Bhavnagar; and Thakor at Mehsana and the neighbourhood.</p>

<p>Saurashtra and north Gujarat are the key regions that will determine the larger Patel drift as they are dominated by the Patidar community. Together they account for more than 100 seats. In 2012, the BJP had easily overcome a stiff challenge from Keshubhai Patel who had rebelled against the party. Fobbing off the Hardik Patel challenge could be a different cup of tea for the party this time, given that the Patel charge is fortified with the OBC factor and possible anti-incumbency.</p>

<p>And yet, it would be pertinent to note the word of caution which the original architect of KHAM, Solanki, expressed two years ago. He said the Patidar agitation would eventually fizzle out &ldquo;because truth has no role in it&rdquo;. While he did not name Hardik Patel or his outfit, the inference was clear as daylight.</p>

<p>This is what the BJP hopes in, more so because it believes that the Congress is in no position to offer a credible and workable reservation formula. It may be that Solanki was out of touch with the new realities when he made that remark and that his forward caste bias was on display. But the over-zealous and newly-emerged caste leaders cannot be oblivious to the fact that glories acquired overnight can dissipate just as quickly.<br />
&nbsp;</p>


The real test of Hardik Patel's alliance with the Congress party lies in the alliance?s acceptance among the people at the lower levels.

The politics of caste has always been there in Gujarat like it has existed elsewhere in the country. But never before in the last two decades has it assumed a pole position in the manner that it has in the ongoing Assembly election campaign. What makes the development more interesting is that it is neither of the two major competitors — the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party — which is the driver. The thrust is being engineered by three caste leaders who are upstarts and hope to, in the process, gain a pan-State relevance. Since they have decided to oppose the BJP, the Congress has latched on to them. And, the issue is not only one of caste calculations but of caste reservations. Having jumped on to the caste bandwagon, the Congress cannot now turn back. Therefore, it is busy crafting the KHAM 2.0 version in the hope that this will shut down the BJP’s page in the State. It was in the 1980s that senior Congress leader and four-time Chief Minister Madhav Singh Solanki along with Congressman Jinabhai Darji formulated the Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi and Muslim (KHAM) grouping. It served his party well. The Congress won the Assembly election in 1981, bagging 156 seats — an achievement which the BJP has been straining to match. The winning formula worked for several years before the BJP took over Gujarat and reduced the KHAM phenomenon to ashes. The combination eventually lost out because it alienated the others, especially the upper castes and the influential Patidar community whom the BJP courted with success. The 2014 Lok Sabha election decimated whatever had remained of this coalition, with the BJP winning all the 26 seats on offer in the State. The new revived KHAM version includes the Patidars. Whether it was during the 2002 communal violence or thereafter, the Patidars backed the BJP and the then Chief Minister Narendra Modi. × On the face of it, KHAM-plus-Patidar is a formidable formulation. The Patidar community represents a little over 12 per cent of the State’s population; the Muslims comprise roughly 10 per cent, and the Adivasi community is around 15 per cent (the Scheduled Castes are eight per cent or so). The Kshatriyas in Gujarat are a mixed lot — the Koli people consider themselves as Kshatriyas, and so do a few others. But the success of KHAM 2.0 depends more on paper calculations. Will the chemistry complement the mathematics? It stands to reason that the OBCs who are present beneficiaries of the reservation policy will not be amused by the demands of aspiring entrants. This could be more pronounced in the Patidar case, given that the Patidars are seen to have gained considerably over the decades, socially, educationally and economically, and are considered unworthy of the ‘positive discrimination’ they now demand. Additionally, if the Patidars become part of the Congress’s KHAM 2.0, it would need a resolution of the long-standing conflict between the Patidar community and the rest, especially the main religious minority — the Muslims. Whether it was during the 2002 communal violence or thereafter, the Patidars backed the BJP and the then Chief Minister Narendra Modi. Dissatisfaction among large sections of the traditional voters of the BJP need not automatically lead to their casting votes against the party. × It is one thing for a bunch of Patidar leaders, such as Hardik Patel and the Congress to align with each other. The real test lies in the alliance’s acceptance among the people at the lower levels. Uttar Pradesh provides a good example. Congress’s Rahul Gandhi and Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav formed a coalition, but the understanding did not strike a chord at the local levels of the leadership. Neither was it seen as credible among the caste voters of both the groups. The Congress-SP combine faced a rout. Besides, dissatisfaction among large sections of the traditional voters of the BJP need not automatically lead to their casting votes against the party. For instance, major opinion polls conducted so far in the State have noted considerable levels of unhappiness with the Government on a host of issues, including the implementation of the Goods and Services Tax and the demonetisation decision. And yet, the projected anger does not get reflected in the overall numbers the surveys projected — with the BJP doing nearly as well as it did in 2012. However, none of the above arguments can be reason enough to dismiss the challenge the BJP faces in the wake the new caste coalition. The BJP cannot wish away the thought of the Congress reviving the KHAM coalition, strengthened with the addition of a good chunk of the OBCs and the Patidars. Nor can it shut its eyes to the traction that the trio of Hardik Patel, Alpesh Thakor (OBC leader) and Jignesh Mevani (Scheduled Castes leader) has gained and their pronounced tilt in the Congress’s favour. Fobbing off the Hardik Patel challenge could be a different cup of tea for BJP this time, given that the Patel charge is fortified with the OBC factor and possible anti-incumbency. × Some commentators may have gone overboard in comparing their combined assault against the BJP to the India Against Corruption movement Anna Hazare had launched four years ago. But it is a fact that the three have managed to sway public opinion in their favour at least in their strongholds. Mevani seeks to make a mark in Ahmedabad and nearabout; Patel in and around Bhavnagar; and Thakor at Mehsana and the neighbourhood. Saurashtra and north Gujarat are the key regions that will determine the larger Patel drift as they are dominated by the Patidar community. Together they account for more than 100 seats. In 2012, the BJP had easily overcome a stiff challenge from Keshubhai Patel who had rebelled against the party. Fobbing off the Hardik Patel challenge could be a different cup of tea for the party this time, given that the Patel charge is fortified with the OBC factor and possible anti-incumbency. And yet, it would be pertinent to note the word of caution which the original architect of KHAM, Solanki, expressed two years ago. He said the Patidar agitation would eventually fizzle out “because truth has no role in it”. While he did not name Hardik Patel or his outfit, the inference was clear as daylight. This is what the BJP hopes in, more so because it believes that the Congress is in no position to offer a credible and workable reservation formula. It may be that Solanki was out of touch with the new realities when he made that remark and that his forward caste bias was on display. But the over-zealous and newly-emerged caste leaders cannot be oblivious to the fact that glories acquired overnight can dissipate just as quickly.

Gujarat election: Hardik Patel's glory may fizzle out

<p>During the last Assembly election in Gujarat, Narendra Modi was the chief minister; Shankersinh Vaghela was the tallest Congress leader in the State; veteran Patidar leader Keshubhai Patel had rebelled against the Bharatiya Janata Party and floated his own outfit, the Gujarat Parivartan Party; Sonia Gandhi had vigorously campaigned for the Congress; the Congress was in power at the Centre; 26/11 terrorist Ajmal Kasab was hanged; and Shiv Sena supremo Balasaheb Thackeray had passed away.</p>

<p>The BJP led by Modi had registered a resounding victory while the Congress helmed by Vaghela and consisting of a motley of lesser leaders managed just about half the number of seats the winning party got. Keshubhai Patel&rsquo;s party, contrary to its partvartan promise, could bring no change, ending with a paltry two seats. The so-called KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim) combine, that had been crafted in the 1980s by Congress leader Madhavsinh Solanki as his party&rsquo;s vote bank, failed to deliver &mdash; as it had on previous occasions in the past decade or so.</p>

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<h5>The last election prepared the ground for Modi&rsquo;s elevation to the national stage; the 2017 result could solidify his and his party&rsquo;s position in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll.</h5>
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<p>Now, as the people of Gujarat prepare to vote in a few weeks from now for a new Assembly, much has changed. Modi is the country&rsquo;s Prime Minister; Vaghela has quit the Congress and is expected to harm his former party&rsquo;s prospects; Keshubhai Patel has reconciled to being a non-entity in the State&rsquo;s politics; the Hardik Patel factor has been introduced to lure the Patidar votes away from the BJP; Balasaheb Thackeray&rsquo;s son and successor Uddhav Thackeray has turned into more of a rival than an ally (which is officially is) of the ruling party; Sonia Gandhi may not campaign extensively owing to her health; Rahul Gandhi, soon to be made Congress president, is at the forefront of his party&rsquo;s electoral battle; and, the BJP has replaced the Congress at the Centre.</p>

<p>Yet, some things remain the same. Modi in 2017, as in 2012, is the BJP&rsquo;s mascot and the Congress&rsquo;s chief enemy and a wall yet to be dented. Like in 2012, Modi is hard selling &lsquo;development&rsquo; and Gujarati pride in 2017 as well. Rahul Gandhi is seeking to establish his credentials as a serious and credible politician, something he had attempted in 2012 as well.</p>

<p>The Muslim voters of the State are as wary of the BJP today as they were in 2012, and they have to do with the ruling party&rsquo;s slogan of &ldquo;Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas&rdquo;. Finally, if the Gujarat election in 2012 was important on account of Modi, it is more so in 2017. The last election prepared the ground for Modi&rsquo;s elevation to the national stage; the 2017 result could solidify his and his party&rsquo;s position in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll.</p>

<p>The gloves are off on both the sides. Prime Minister Modi and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi have visited Gujarat on several occasions and are expected to keep doing so in the run-up to the election. If Modi has sought to leverage &lsquo;development&rsquo;, Rahul Gandhi has concentrated on the &lsquo;divisive&rsquo; nature of his rival and rubbished the claimed development.</p>

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<h5>If Modi has sought to leverage &lsquo;development&rsquo;, Rahul Gandhi has concentrated on the &lsquo;divisive&rsquo; nature of his rival and rubbished the claimed development.</h5>
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<p>Modi talks of the Congress&rsquo;s corruption while Rahul Gandhi attacks the BJP for &lsquo;atrocities&rsquo; on Scheduled Castes and discrimination against the Muslims. If the BJP brandishes the World Bank&rsquo;s Doing Business report as a vindication of the Modi regime&rsquo;s economic policies, the Congress alleges the report was &lsquo;manufactured&rsquo; and &lsquo;fixed&rsquo;. The Congress cautions Gujarat&rsquo;s voters against social and economic disasters in case they let the BJP return to power, and the BJP warns them of a rude jolt to the development and Gujarati pride if the Congress succeeds.</p>

<p>The Congress believes, and with good reasons of its own, that it has the best chance in two decades to oust the BJP from the State. It may not have been wrong in sensing a level of disaffection among a section of the traditional BJP supporters &mdash; the business community and the Patidars, for example. The Congress is seeking to tap into the discontent among traders over disruptions caused by the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime, while it is hoping to swing the Patel votes its way by holding out the promise of reservations in Government jobs and educational institutions.</p>

<p>With Patidar leader Hardik Patel apparently throwing his weight behind the Congress, the opposition party is upbeat. Add to this, the anger in the Scheduled Caste community following the Una incident last year under the BJP rule. The Congress hopes to exploit this as well, although the Dalit population in the State is too insignificant to make a major overall electoral impact.</p>

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<h5>The BJP is banking on its strong and decades-long socio-economic connect with the Patidar community to neutralise the Hardik Patel fallout.</h5>
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<p>Mindful of the new challenges which have come its way, the BJP has adopted a multi-pronged approach. For one, it has stepped up its focus on development and Gujarati pride &mdash; juxtaposing it with the Congress&rsquo;s &lsquo;indifference&rsquo;. While dedicating the Sardar Sarovar project to the nation, Modi did not fail to underline what he alleged were obstacles that Congress regimes at the Centre had placed in the early completion of the dam work. In later meetings in the State, he spoke of the delays the Congress-led UPA had effected, in the name of environment protection, in developing coastal Gujarat.</p>

<p>Modi spoke of the Congress&rsquo;s sidelining of Gujarati pride &mdash; freedom fighter, senior Congress leader and independent India&rsquo;s first Minister for Home Affairs, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel &mdash; and mentioned the ongoing work on the Statue of Unity that the BJP had undertaken in the Iron Man&rsquo;s memory. It has been wooing important leaders of the Patidar community to blunt the Hardik Patel impact, and also highlighting Hardik Patel&rsquo;s proximity to the Congress &mdash; a party which it says had consistently betrayed the Patel cause. The BJP is banking on its strong and decades-long socio-economic connect with the Patidar community to neutralise the Hardik Patel fallout.</p>

<p>As campaigning picks up and nominations are filed and confirmed, there will emerge a better understanding at constituency levels on which way the battle is going. Certain issues will gain steam while others may fall by the wayside. The larger picture, going by published opinion polls so far, appears to be in the BJP&rsquo;s favour. The party is expected to sweep as it did in 2012. These surveys also inform that a majority of the people are unhappy with the GST mess and the effects of demonetisation. And yet, if the BJP still wins, it can only mean one thing &mdash; and one that is discouraging to the Congress: People may be unhappy with some of the BJP Government&rsquo;s decisions, but they will not necessarily vote against the party.</p>


BJP has stepped up its focus on development and Gujarati pride ? juxtaposing it with the Congress?s ?indifference?.

During the last Assembly election in Gujarat, Narendra Modi was the chief minister; Shankersinh Vaghela was the tallest Congress leader in the State; veteran Patidar leader Keshubhai Patel had rebelled against the Bharatiya Janata Party and floated his own outfit, the Gujarat Parivartan Party; Sonia Gandhi had vigorously campaigned for the Congress; the Congress was in power at the Centre; 26/11 terrorist Ajmal Kasab was hanged; and Shiv Sena supremo Balasaheb Thackeray had passed away. The BJP led by Modi had registered a resounding victory while the Congress helmed by Vaghela and consisting of a motley of lesser leaders managed just about half the number of seats the winning party got. Keshubhai Patel’s party, contrary to its partvartan promise, could bring no change, ending with a paltry two seats. The so-called KHAM (Kshatriya, Harijan, Adivasi, Muslim) combine, that had been crafted in the 1980s by Congress leader Madhavsinh Solanki as his party’s vote bank, failed to deliver — as it had on previous occasions in the past decade or so. The last election prepared the ground for Modi’s elevation to the national stage; the 2017 result could solidify his and his party’s position in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll. × Now, as the people of Gujarat prepare to vote in a few weeks from now for a new Assembly, much has changed. Modi is the country’s Prime Minister; Vaghela has quit the Congress and is expected to harm his former party’s prospects; Keshubhai Patel has reconciled to being a non-entity in the State’s politics; the Hardik Patel factor has been introduced to lure the Patidar votes away from the BJP; Balasaheb Thackeray’s son and successor Uddhav Thackeray has turned into more of a rival than an ally (which is officially is) of the ruling party; Sonia Gandhi may not campaign extensively owing to her health; Rahul Gandhi, soon to be made Congress president, is at the forefront of his party’s electoral battle; and, the BJP has replaced the Congress at the Centre. Yet, some things remain the same. Modi in 2017, as in 2012, is the BJP’s mascot and the Congress’s chief enemy and a wall yet to be dented. Like in 2012, Modi is hard selling ‘development’ and Gujarati pride in 2017 as well. Rahul Gandhi is seeking to establish his credentials as a serious and credible politician, something he had attempted in 2012 as well. The Muslim voters of the State are as wary of the BJP today as they were in 2012, and they have to do with the ruling party’s slogan of “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas”. Finally, if the Gujarat election in 2012 was important on account of Modi, it is more so in 2017. The last election prepared the ground for Modi’s elevation to the national stage; the 2017 result could solidify his and his party’s position in the 2019 Lok Sabha poll. The gloves are off on both the sides. Prime Minister Modi and Congress vice-president Rahul Gandhi have visited Gujarat on several occasions and are expected to keep doing so in the run-up to the election. If Modi has sought to leverage ‘development’, Rahul Gandhi has concentrated on the ‘divisive’ nature of his rival and rubbished the claimed development. If Modi has sought to leverage ‘development’, Rahul Gandhi has concentrated on the ‘divisive’ nature of his rival and rubbished the claimed development. × Modi talks of the Congress’s corruption while Rahul Gandhi attacks the BJP for ‘atrocities’ on Scheduled Castes and discrimination against the Muslims. If the BJP brandishes the World Bank’s Doing Business report as a vindication of the Modi regime’s economic policies, the Congress alleges the report was ‘manufactured’ and ‘fixed’. The Congress cautions Gujarat’s voters against social and economic disasters in case they let the BJP return to power, and the BJP warns them of a rude jolt to the development and Gujarati pride if the Congress succeeds. The Congress believes, and with good reasons of its own, that it has the best chance in two decades to oust the BJP from the State. It may not have been wrong in sensing a level of disaffection among a section of the traditional BJP supporters — the business community and the Patidars, for example. The Congress is seeking to tap into the discontent among traders over disruptions caused by the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime, while it is hoping to swing the Patel votes its way by holding out the promise of reservations in Government jobs and educational institutions. With Patidar leader Hardik Patel apparently throwing his weight behind the Congress, the opposition party is upbeat. Add to this, the anger in the Scheduled Caste community following the Una incident last year under the BJP rule. The Congress hopes to exploit this as well, although the Dalit population in the State is too insignificant to make a major overall electoral impact. The BJP is banking on its strong and decades-long socio-economic connect with the Patidar community to neutralise the Hardik Patel fallout. × Mindful of the new challenges which have come its way, the BJP has adopted a multi-pronged approach. For one, it has stepped up its focus on development and Gujarati pride — juxtaposing it with the Congress’s ‘indifference’. While dedicating the Sardar Sarovar project to the nation, Modi did not fail to underline what he alleged were obstacles that Congress regimes at the Centre had placed in the early completion of the dam work. In later meetings in the State, he spoke of the delays the Congress-led UPA had effected, in the name of environment protection, in developing coastal Gujarat. Modi spoke of the Congress’s sidelining of Gujarati pride — freedom fighter, senior Congress leader and independent India’s first Minister for Home Affairs, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel — and mentioned the ongoing work on the Statue of Unity that the BJP had undertaken in the Iron Man’s memory. It has been wooing important leaders of the Patidar community to blunt the Hardik Patel impact, and also highlighting Hardik Patel’s proximity to the Congress — a party which it says had consistently betrayed the Patel cause. The BJP is banking on its strong and decades-long socio-economic connect with the Patidar community to neutralise the Hardik Patel fallout. As campaigning picks up and nominations are filed and confirmed, there will emerge a better understanding at constituency levels on which way the battle is going. Certain issues will gain steam while others may fall by the wayside. The larger picture, going by published opinion polls so far, appears to be in the BJP’s favour. The party is expected to sweep as it did in 2012. These surveys also inform that a majority of the people are unhappy with the GST mess and the effects of demonetisation. And yet, if the BJP still wins, it can only mean one thing — and one that is discouraging to the Congress: People may be unhappy with some of the BJP Government’s decisions, but they will not necessarily vote against the party.

Gujarat election: Demonetisation vs Gujarati pride

<p>India-Afghanistan relations have come a long way in a short span of time. Arguably, no two other South Asian countries have a comparable strong bonding as these two. Not only is Afghanistan today seeking greater engagement with New Delhi, something which Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani re-emphasised during his recent visit to India but even the US is calling upon India to play a larger role there (as is evident in Washington DC&rsquo;s recently unveiled Afghanistan and India policies).</p>

<p>Given that India&rsquo;s contribution so far has been largely in the areas of developmental work and somewhat limited in defence matters, it is evident that both the Trump administration and Kabul are expecting New Delhi to ramp up Indo-Afghan defence cooperation even if it leaves Pakistan rattled. India is unlikely to put its military boots on the ground there, but short of that, the sky appears to be the limit.</p>

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<h5>Afghanistan had opposed the entry of Pakistan into the United Nations, and also that Kabul had not officially recognised the Durand Line which divides Afghanistan from Pakistan and serves as the de facto border.</h5>
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<p>Such is the current euphoria, admittedly justifiable, that few would remember or want to remember that the two nations had not seen eye to eye on many issues critical to New Delhi in the recent past. This, despite the emotional Kabuliwala, connect, the fact that Afghanistan had opposed the entry of Pakistan into the United Nations, and also that Kabul had not (it still has not) officially recognised the Durand Line which divides Afghanistan from Pakistan and serves as the de facto border.</p>

<p>The first real indication came during the 1965 India-Pakistan war. New Delhi had then raised the pitch to counter Pakistan&rsquo;s call for people&rsquo;s right to self-determination in Jammu &amp; Kashmir and even Nagaland. It said that Pakistan must then agree to self-determination in East Pakistan, Balochistan and &#39;Pakhtoonistan&rsquo;. Kabul ought to have been happy with that remark given that it believes that the Pakhtun-dominated regions had wrongly gone to Pakistan as a result of the Durand divide. Yet, Afghanistan did not back India during the war.</p>

<p>In fact, Kabul had registered an official protest against the Indian forces for targeting Peshawar and Kohat. This may be explained away on the pretext that Afghanistan considered the two as being its part. But then it had until then done nothing to forcefully present its case before the international community.</p>

<p>More importantly, Afghanistan had not criticised Pakistan&rsquo;s aggression which were codenamed Operation Gibraltar and Operation Grand Slam and whose aim was to secede Kashmir from India. Some media reports of the day had quoted Afghan king Zahir Shah (in Foreign Affairs Records) as placating Pakistan&rsquo;s Zulfikar Ali Bhutto: &ldquo;I as a king, give you assurance, I as a Muslim give you assurance, I as an Afghan give you assurance, that we are with you and we will never betray you.&rdquo; Kabul later denied the statement, but the damage had been done.</p>

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<h5>Pakistan&rsquo;s penchant to damage India&rsquo;s relations with Afghanistan and play mischief to achieve that end, something that it continues to indulge in even today.</h5>
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<p>In an interview, senior Indian diplomat Chinmaya Gharekhan had said that Afghanistan &ldquo;never sided with India in India&rsquo;s disputes with Pakistan&hellip; on issues like Kashmir, we have not had any support from Afghanistan&rdquo;.</p>

<p>It must be said here that given Pakistan&rsquo;s penchant to damage India&rsquo;s relations with Afghanistan and play mischief to achieve that end - something that it continues to indulge in even today -&nbsp;it may have &lsquo;manufactured&rsquo; the statement purportedly given by the king. Yet, it&rsquo;s a fact that Kabul was less than favourable to New Delhi on the latter&rsquo;s position on Kashmir.</p>

<p>It is possible that the Indian dismay would have been addressed had the then Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri made his scheduled visit to Afghanistan after the Tashkent meet which brought about an end to the 1965 war. Unfortunately, that was not to be as he died soon after the Tashkent Declaration.</p>

<p>In those days, 1965 was the only &lsquo;bright&rsquo; spot in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations, because soon after, especially from the early 1970s, the Afghans began to be increasingly alarmed by Pakistan&rsquo;s high-handedness in East Pakistan and even the Baloch region. Although Kabul officially maintained silence over the Pakistani Army&rsquo;s atrocities in what later became Bangladesh, the ruling dispensation recognised the general Afghan anger over the developments.</p>

<p>What was worse from Afghanistan&rsquo;s viewpoint was the heavy-handedness which Pakistan displayed against the Baloch population. Kabul and New Delhi, although not the greatest of friends then, nevertheless began coming closer through, the increased Soviet influence in Afghanistan. Ironically, it was that very influence, to counter which the US entered the scene and made Pakistan a key counter-balance to the Soviet-backed regimes, which led to complications in the bilateral. Towards the end of 1980s and the early 1990s with the Soviets out and the Taliban gaining ground, India-Afghanistan ties hit a new low, only to recover years later.</p>

<p>Afghanistan soon realised to its dismay that the ouster of the Taliban regime had brought more problems than it had solved, in the form of militancy. The Mujahideen were out of work and had turned against their patrons - the US - but continued to be backed by Islamabad. The militant&#39;s groups, now carrying various names, began to target not just Afghanistan but also India and others in South Asia. India-Afghanistan ties should have taken off after this realisation had dawned on Kabul, but did not.</p>

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<h5>Hamid Karzai consistently attacked Pakistan for patronising terror elements that hit his country and India too.</h5>
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<p>This was primarily because of two reasons. The first is that the US continued to generously support Pakistan, and Afghanistan had to humour Pakistan because it heavily depended on the US for all kinds of aid. The second is that the new regime in Kabul fell for Pakistan&rsquo;s assurance of being a true friend. In 2011, then President Hamid Karzai had called Pakistan a &ldquo;twin brother&rdquo; and claimed that it had suffered from terrorism &ldquo;more than us&rdquo; and that India suffered from terrorist attacks &ldquo;only occasionally&rdquo;.</p>

<p>The fact that Karzai called India a &ldquo;great friend&rdquo; did nothing to please New Delhi after his pro-Pakistan remarks. It didn&rsquo;t take him a lifetime to revise his opinion. By 2014, when he was no longer President, he was consistently attacking Pakistan for patronising terror elements that hit his country and India too. This was then the beginning of Kabul getting real close to India. To be fair to Karzai, towards the last months in office, he had begun to speak out openly against Pakistan-sponsored terror in the region.</p>

<p>Like his predecessor, President Ghani began his tenure with overtures to Islamabad, worrying New Delhi which had begun to see light at the end of the India-Afghanistan bilateral tunnel. He went to Pakistan, received a 21-gun salute at the airport, and visited the Pakistani military headquarters - a gesture that was seen as bending-over-backwards to the powerful army there and thus roundly criticised. But he too was soon to be disabused of his optimism. In subsequent months, he realised Pakistan&rsquo;s games, and turned into Islamabad&rsquo;s trenchant critic and forged what is now termed as a historic relationship with India.</p>

<p>Given this short history, it would not be an exaggeration to say that the robust India-Afghanistan bilateral has much to thank Pakistan for its duplicity in combating terrorism in the South Asian region. But the relationship cannot rest on the negativity over Islamabad; it needs fresh positive doses to prevent any more disruptions.</p>


The India-Afghanistan relationship cannot rest on the negativity over Islamabad; it needs fresh positive doses to prevent any more disruptions

India-Afghanistan relations have come a long way in a short span of time. Arguably, no two other South Asian countries have a comparable strong bonding as these two. Not only is Afghanistan today seeking greater engagement with New Delhi, something which Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani re-emphasised during his recent visit to India but even the US is calling upon India to play a larger role there (as is evident in Washington DC’s recently unveiled Afghanistan and India policies). Given that India’s contribution so far has been largely in the areas of developmental work and somewhat limited in defence matters, it is evident that both the Trump administration and Kabul are expecting New Delhi to ramp up Indo-Afghan defence cooperation even if it leaves Pakistan rattled. India is unlikely to put its military boots on the ground there, but short of that, the sky appears to be the limit. Afghanistan had opposed the entry of Pakistan into the United Nations, and also that Kabul had not officially recognised the Durand Line which divides Afghanistan from Pakistan and serves as the de facto border. × Such is the current euphoria, admittedly justifiable, that few would remember or want to remember that the two nations had not seen eye to eye on many issues critical to New Delhi in the recent past. This, despite the emotional Kabuliwala, connect, the fact that Afghanistan had opposed the entry of Pakistan into the United Nations, and also that Kabul had not (it still has not) officially recognised the Durand Line which divides Afghanistan from Pakistan and serves as the de facto border. The first real indication came during the 1965 India-Pakistan war. New Delhi had then raised the pitch to counter Pakistan’s call for people’s right to self-determination in Jammu & Kashmir and even Nagaland. It said that Pakistan must then agree to self-determination in East Pakistan, Balochistan and 'Pakhtoonistan’. Kabul ought to have been happy with that remark given that it believes that the Pakhtun-dominated regions had wrongly gone to Pakistan as a result of the Durand divide. Yet, Afghanistan did not back India during the war. In fact, Kabul had registered an official protest against the Indian forces for targeting Peshawar and Kohat. This may be explained away on the pretext that Afghanistan considered the two as being its part. But then it had until then done nothing to forcefully present its case before the international community. More importantly, Afghanistan had not criticised Pakistan’s aggression which were codenamed Operation Gibraltar and Operation Grand Slam and whose aim was to secede Kashmir from India. Some media reports of the day had quoted Afghan king Zahir Shah (in Foreign Affairs Records) as placating Pakistan’s Zulfikar Ali Bhutto: “I as a king, give you assurance, I as a Muslim give you assurance, I as an Afghan give you assurance, that we are with you and we will never betray you.” Kabul later denied the statement, but the damage had been done. Pakistan’s penchant to damage India’s relations with Afghanistan and play mischief to achieve that end, something that it continues to indulge in even today. × In an interview, senior Indian diplomat Chinmaya Gharekhan had said that Afghanistan “never sided with India in India’s disputes with Pakistan… on issues like Kashmir, we have not had any support from Afghanistan”. It must be said here that given Pakistan’s penchant to damage India’s relations with Afghanistan and play mischief to achieve that end - something that it continues to indulge in even today - it may have ‘manufactured’ the statement purportedly given by the king. Yet, it’s a fact that Kabul was less than favourable to New Delhi on the latter’s position on Kashmir. It is possible that the Indian dismay would have been addressed had the then Prime Minister Lal Bahadur Shastri made his scheduled visit to Afghanistan after the Tashkent meet which brought about an end to the 1965 war. Unfortunately, that was not to be as he died soon after the Tashkent Declaration. In those days, 1965 was the only ‘bright’ spot in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations, because soon after, especially from the early 1970s, the Afghans began to be increasingly alarmed by Pakistan’s high-handedness in East Pakistan and even the Baloch region. Although Kabul officially maintained silence over the Pakistani Army’s atrocities in what later became Bangladesh, the ruling dispensation recognised the general Afghan anger over the developments. What was worse from Afghanistan’s viewpoint was the heavy-handedness which Pakistan displayed against the Baloch population. Kabul and New Delhi, although not the greatest of friends then, nevertheless began coming closer through, the increased Soviet influence in Afghanistan. Ironically, it was that very influence, to counter which the US entered the scene and made Pakistan a key counter-balance to the Soviet-backed regimes, which led to complications in the bilateral. Towards the end of 1980s and the early 1990s with the Soviets out and the Taliban gaining ground, India-Afghanistan ties hit a new low, only to recover years later. Afghanistan soon realised to its dismay that the ouster of the Taliban regime had brought more problems than it had solved, in the form of militancy. The Mujahideen were out of work and had turned against their patrons - the US - but continued to be backed by Islamabad. The militant's groups, now carrying various names, began to target not just Afghanistan but also India and others in South Asia. India-Afghanistan ties should have taken off after this realisation had dawned on Kabul, but did not. Hamid Karzai consistently attacked Pakistan for patronising terror elements that hit his country and India too. × This was primarily because of two reasons. The first is that the US continued to generously support Pakistan, and Afghanistan had to humour Pakistan because it heavily depended on the US for all kinds of aid. The second is that the new regime in Kabul fell for Pakistan’s assurance of being a true friend. In 2011, then President Hamid Karzai had called Pakistan a “twin brother” and claimed that it had suffered from terrorism “more than us” and that India suffered from terrorist attacks “only occasionally”. The fact that Karzai called India a “great friend” did nothing to please New Delhi after his pro-Pakistan remarks. It didn’t take him a lifetime to revise his opinion. By 2014, when he was no longer President, he was consistently attacking Pakistan for patronising terror elements that hit his country and India too. This was then the beginning of Kabul getting real close to India. To be fair to Karzai, towards the last months in office, he had begun to speak out openly against Pakistan-sponsored terror in the region. Like his predecessor, President Ghani began his tenure with overtures to Islamabad, worrying New Delhi which had begun to see light at the end of the India-Afghanistan bilateral tunnel. He went to Pakistan, received a 21-gun salute at the airport, and visited the Pakistani military headquarters - a gesture that was seen as bending-over-backwards to the powerful army there and thus roundly criticised. But he too was soon to be disabused of his optimism. In subsequent months, he realised Pakistan’s games, and turned into Islamabad’s trenchant critic and forged what is now termed as a historic relationship with India. Given this short history, it would not be an exaggeration to say that the robust India-Afghanistan bilateral has much to thank Pakistan for its duplicity in combating terrorism in the South Asian region. But the relationship cannot rest on the negativity over Islamabad; it needs fresh positive doses to prevent any more disruptions.

India-Afghanistan relationship seeks to prosper through all ups and downs

<p>Spurred by the spate of recent electoral victories, the Bharatiya Janata Party has become audaciously ambitious. It has begun to not just enter enemy territory with new-found confidence and aggression but also march into enemy strongholds within that forbidden territory.</p>

<p>On October 3, party president Amit Shah launched the Jan Raksha Yatra (March for People&rsquo;s Protection) in the Marxist bastion of Kerala &mdash; and from Kannur district which has been the centre of political violence. If the BJP&rsquo;s opponents thought this was another symbolic show to remind the people of the party&rsquo;s presence in this southern state, and no more, they were soon disabused of the notion when Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath arrived on wednesday to participate in the high-profile event.</p>

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<p>The message is clear. The BJP will play every card to enhance its footprint in Kerala. If the politics of polarisation needs to be resorted to, so be it. But polarisation does not happen in a vacuum; a context is necessary. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) rule has created a fertile ground for deep disaffection among large sections of the populace in the state and the BJP (along with the RSS which has had a strong presence for years) is set to exploit the situation.</p>

<p>Amit Shah claimed that more than 84 BJP-RSS workers had been killed in Kannur alone since 2001 by Left-supported individuals and organisations. One can quibble over the figure or the counter-claim that right-wing activists too have participated in political violence. But there cannot be a denial of the ground reality that the major victims have been the Rightists.</p>

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<p>The BJP believes that by ratcheting up public sentiment against such killings and other forms of violence, it can eventually create a conducive electoral environment in its favour. That is to be seen; for now, State Assembly elections are far away. But the Lok Sabha poll will be held in less than two years and the party hopes to harvest some advantage from its counter-aggression. To that end, the Jan Raksha Yatra is, arguably, the BJP&rsquo;s most determined effort so far in Kerala.</p>

<p>The Marxists have been dismissive of their opponent&rsquo;s drive, and they have been especially critical of the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister&rsquo;s presence, advising him to mend governance in his home state before condemning the Left rule in Kerala. But there is no doubt that the Left is worried.</p>

<p>Unlike the BJP which is ruling most parts of the country either on its own or with the help of allies, the Left Front, and especially the CPI (M), is facing an existential crisis. It has been driven out from its one-time stronghold, West Bengal, by Mamata Banerjee&rsquo;s Trinamool Congress. This was bad enough, but worse has followed. For all practical purposes, it&rsquo;s not even the main opposition there; the BJP has occupied that spot. Given that it has been marginalised in a state which it once ruled for three uninterrupted decades, the CPI (M)&rsquo;s salvation lies in Kerala where, in any case, it cannot presume invincibility since the Congress has been breathing down its neck. But the Congress is a friendly opposition when compared to the BJP.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The BJP&rsquo;s game plan is simple enough. Exploit the anger among the people over political violence against its people and the larger Sangh family, attribute such violence to the Marxists&rsquo; ideology of intolerance, link the incidents to minority appeasement politics of the Left, and arouse passions in the name of majority-victimhood. The more it can do this the more it would push the Left into the anti-majority-community trap. Yogi Adityanath is a perfect candidate to further this strategy in the deep south. He is charismatic and a crowd-puller. It helps that he is also considered a &lsquo;Hindu mascot&rsquo;.</p>

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<h5>If the BJP manages to enhance its presence in Kerala, it will be as much due to its perseverance as it will be on account of the Marxists&rsquo; obstinacy to change with the times.&nbsp;</h5>
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<p>There is something to be said in favour of striking when the iron is hot. Not only is the CPI (M) battling for political relevance, but it has also been facing embarrassment from within. A gentleman named Ritabrata Banerjee has been doing his bit in this regard. Once the blue-eyed boy of the Marxists and a Rajya Sabha MP, the highly visible Banerjee was expelled from the CPI (M) last month for &ldquo;grave anti-party activities&rdquo;. He claimed to have fallen foul with the senior leadership after he began to speak out in party forums against the &lsquo;Kannur cabal&rsquo; comprising among others, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and senior leader Kodiyeri Balakrishnan.</p>

<p>In interviews to television channels, Banerjee gleefully tore into the Marxists, saying that he had been targeted by the party leaders for, among other things, saying &ldquo;Bharat Mata ki Jai&rdquo;. He added that certain party leaders whose wish prevailed had problems with his lifestyle &mdash; including the apple watch he wore and the foreign trips he undertook!</p>

<p>There is of course little need to make a martyr out of him or take all that he has said as unadulterated truth. Nonetheless, he seems to have underlined the basic problems the Marxists are confronted with, and are increasingly failing to effectively address: That the CPI (M) has lost its connection with the aspirations and demands of the new voter who not just abhors retributive politics but also frowns at dated ideological positions and defers with the party on issues of &lsquo;nationalism&rsquo;. If the BJP manages to enhance its presence in Kerala, it will be as much due to its perseverance as it will be on account of the Marxists&rsquo; obstinacy to change with the times.&nbsp;</p>

<p>There are two primary reasons for the BJP&rsquo;s focus on Kerala. The first is simply that it&rsquo;s a hard nut to crack &mdash; and Amit Shah enjoys nothing better than meeting such challenges head-on &mdash; even if it entails the use of techniques in the book and outside of it. In southern India, the party has a fighting chance in Karnataka where the Assembly election is due next year. It rules in alliance in Andhra Pradesh, and is contemplating various combinations to unlock Tamil Nadu. But whereas it&rsquo;s at the mercy of regional allies, both current and potential, to be relevant elsewhere in the south, in Kerala it hopes to be a dominant player, even if it stitches deals with regional outfits.</p>

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<h5>BJP may yet have a long road to traverse in Kerala.</h5>
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<p>The second reason stems from its own electoral performance in the past few years. In the 2016 Assembly election, the BJP-led NDA received over 14 per cent of the votes; it won one seat; and finished second in six others. Compare these to the five per cent vote-share in 2001, under five per cent in 2006, six per cent in 2011 &mdash; and a little less than 11 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, and the cause for the BJP&rsquo;s optimism becomes obvious. A CSDS-Lokniti survey done for a leading national daily soon after the last Assembly poll informed that the BJP had cut into the support base of both the Left and the Congress. Interestingly, the party also managed to win over a small segment of the Christian votes.&nbsp;</p>

<p>While these should cheer, and have cheered, the Rightist party and its supporters, the BJP may yet have a long road to traverse in Kerala. The moot question is: Will the party resort to dangerous social divisions to succeed electorally or moderate its stance and bank on inclusivity?</p>


Amit Shah comes up with a master plan to enhance BJP's dominance in Kerala

Spurred by the spate of recent electoral victories, the Bharatiya Janata Party has become audaciously ambitious. It has begun to not just enter enemy territory with new-found confidence and aggression but also march into enemy strongholds within that forbidden territory. On October 3, party president Amit Shah launched the Jan Raksha Yatra (March for People’s Protection) in the Marxist bastion of Kerala — and from Kannur district which has been the centre of political violence. If the BJP’s opponents thought this was another symbolic show to remind the people of the party’s presence in this southern state, and no more, they were soon disabused of the notion when Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath arrived on wednesday to participate in the high-profile event. Amit Shah claimed that more than 84 BJP-RSS workers had been killed in Kannur alone since 2001 by Left-supported individuals and organisations. × The message is clear. The BJP will play every card to enhance its footprint in Kerala. If the politics of polarisation needs to be resorted to, so be it. But polarisation does not happen in a vacuum; a context is necessary. The Communist Party of India (Marxist) rule has created a fertile ground for deep disaffection among large sections of the populace in the state and the BJP (along with the RSS which has had a strong presence for years) is set to exploit the situation. Amit Shah claimed that more than 84 BJP-RSS workers had been killed in Kannur alone since 2001 by Left-supported individuals and organisations. One can quibble over the figure or the counter-claim that right-wing activists too have participated in political violence. But there cannot be a denial of the ground reality that the major victims have been the Rightists. The Jan Raksha Yatra is arguably the BJP’s most determined effort so far in Kerala. × The BJP believes that by ratcheting up public sentiment against such killings and other forms of violence, it can eventually create a conducive electoral environment in its favour. That is to be seen; for now, State Assembly elections are far away. But the Lok Sabha poll will be held in less than two years and the party hopes to harvest some advantage from its counter-aggression. To that end, the Jan Raksha Yatra is, arguably, the BJP’s most determined effort so far in Kerala. The Marxists have been dismissive of their opponent’s drive, and they have been especially critical of the Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister’s presence, advising him to mend governance in his home state before condemning the Left rule in Kerala. But there is no doubt that the Left is worried. Unlike the BJP which is ruling most parts of the country either on its own or with the help of allies, the Left Front, and especially the CPI (M), is facing an existential crisis. It has been driven out from its one-time stronghold, West Bengal, by Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress. This was bad enough, but worse has followed. For all practical purposes, it’s not even the main opposition there; the BJP has occupied that spot. Given that it has been marginalised in a state which it once ruled for three uninterrupted decades, the CPI (M)’s salvation lies in Kerala where, in any case, it cannot presume invincibility since the Congress has been breathing down its neck. But the Congress is a friendly opposition when compared to the BJP. The BJP’s game plan is simple enough. Exploit the anger among the people over political violence against its people and the larger Sangh family, attribute such violence to the Marxists’ ideology of intolerance, link the incidents to minority appeasement politics of the Left, and arouse passions in the name of majority-victimhood. The more it can do this the more it would push the Left into the anti-majority-community trap. Yogi Adityanath is a perfect candidate to further this strategy in the deep south. He is charismatic and a crowd-puller. It helps that he is also considered a ‘Hindu mascot’. If the BJP manages to enhance its presence in Kerala, it will be as much due to its perseverance as it will be on account of the Marxists’ obstinacy to change with the times. × There is something to be said in favour of striking when the iron is hot. Not only is the CPI (M) battling for political relevance, but it has also been facing embarrassment from within. A gentleman named Ritabrata Banerjee has been doing his bit in this regard. Once the blue-eyed boy of the Marxists and a Rajya Sabha MP, the highly visible Banerjee was expelled from the CPI (M) last month for “grave anti-party activities”. He claimed to have fallen foul with the senior leadership after he began to speak out in party forums against the ‘Kannur cabal’ comprising among others, Kerala Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan and senior leader Kodiyeri Balakrishnan. In interviews to television channels, Banerjee gleefully tore into the Marxists, saying that he had been targeted by the party leaders for, among other things, saying “Bharat Mata ki Jai”. He added that certain party leaders whose wish prevailed had problems with his lifestyle — including the apple watch he wore and the foreign trips he undertook! There is of course little need to make a martyr out of him or take all that he has said as unadulterated truth. Nonetheless, he seems to have underlined the basic problems the Marxists are confronted with, and are increasingly failing to effectively address: That the CPI (M) has lost its connection with the aspirations and demands of the new voter who not just abhors retributive politics but also frowns at dated ideological positions and defers with the party on issues of ‘nationalism’. If the BJP manages to enhance its presence in Kerala, it will be as much due to its perseverance as it will be on account of the Marxists’ obstinacy to change with the times. There are two primary reasons for the BJP’s focus on Kerala. The first is simply that it’s a hard nut to crack — and Amit Shah enjoys nothing better than meeting such challenges head-on — even if it entails the use of techniques in the book and outside of it. In southern India, the party has a fighting chance in Karnataka where the Assembly election is due next year. It rules in alliance in Andhra Pradesh, and is contemplating various combinations to unlock Tamil Nadu. But whereas it’s at the mercy of regional allies, both current and potential, to be relevant elsewhere in the south, in Kerala it hopes to be a dominant player, even if it stitches deals with regional outfits. BJP may yet have a long road to traverse in Kerala. × The second reason stems from its own electoral performance in the past few years. In the 2016 Assembly election, the BJP-led NDA received over 14 per cent of the votes; it won one seat; and finished second in six others. Compare these to the five per cent vote-share in 2001, under five per cent in 2006, six per cent in 2011 — and a little less than 11 per cent in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, and the cause for the BJP’s optimism becomes obvious. A CSDS-Lokniti survey done for a leading national daily soon after the last Assembly poll informed that the BJP had cut into the support base of both the Left and the Congress. Interestingly, the party also managed to win over a small segment of the Christian votes. While these should cheer, and have cheered, the Rightist party and its supporters, the BJP may yet have a long road to traverse in Kerala. The moot question is: Will the party resort to dangerous social divisions to succeed electorally or moderate its stance and bank on inclusivity?

BJP ambitious to gain majority in CPIM's Kerala

<p>Godmen, even the fake ones, know what the sacred texts say - &lsquo;You reap what you sow&rsquo;. Dera Sacha Sauda chief, who goes by the name of Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh&mdash; a farcical attempt to symbolise communal togetherness &mdash; has been convicted by a CBI court for rape and sentenced to 10 years of rigorous imprisonment. It&rsquo;s taken 15 years for justice to come, but as a popular line in Hindi films goes, &ldquo;Kanoon ke hath bahut lambey hain&rdquo; (the hands of the law are longer). Still, many would say that it&rsquo;s too little as a punishment for a repeated crime of such heinous nature; he ought to have been given a life term.</p>

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<h5>The phenomenon of fake godmen did not begin with this baba nor will it will end with him.</h5>
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<p>Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh is one among the many discredited so-called godmen the Indian society has grappled with and will continue to do so. This is because the phenomenon of fake godmen did not begin with this baba nor will it will end with him. But, how is it that a society which has been enlightened spiritually and shown the path to true devotion from the likes of Ramakrishna Paramhansa and Ramanna Maharishi and Swami Vivekananda, from saints such as Tukaram and Namdev and Hazrat Nizamuddin, to Sri Aurobindo and J Krishnamurthy, and from devotees like Mirabai, should fall into the clutches of the likes of Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh and Asaram Bapu and Nityananda &mdash; and preachers of the Zakir Naik kind?&nbsp;</p>

<p>Make no mistake, the Dera Sacha Sauda movement is not going to disappear with its leader secured behind bars. Asaram Bapu&rsquo;s devotees are still out there in thousands across the country. Give these devotees all the evidence against their revered spiritual leader &mdash; even evidence of rape &mdash; but they will just refuse to buy it. They will see conspiracies behind the actions against their babas and swamis and will come out on the streets in violent protest. What makes the forgery tick and why?</p>

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<h5>Today&rsquo;s devotee seeks instant nirvana and is attracted by glamorous displays of the path to salvation.</h5>
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<p>One reason is the mindset of contemporary society. Today&rsquo;s devotee seeks instant nirvana and is attracted by glamorous displays of the path to salvation. It has no patience with the ascetic withdrawn from daily life, who lays down a long and difficult road to enlightenment. Such a follower sees nothing aberrant in a godman acting in films, dressing in a hilarious manner, and indulging in politics and immorality.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Of course, this is not enough for a godman to win over lakhs of supporters. He spins off various charitable activities, such as free schools and hospital to attract crowds and devotees. Some of them, such as the Dera chief, appeal to the conscience of marginalised sections of society who have been disappointed by the mainstream religious order and offer them an alternative. Once his charitable empire grows, so does his religious/spiritual domination. Soon, he begins to attract the attention of politicians who are ever on the prowl for vote-banks. That is how Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh grew in stature. And, this is the reason why Haryana Government dealt with the brewing crisis prior to his conviction with kid gloves.</p>

<p>It has been reported that the Dera chief had extended his support to the BJP during the last Assembly election in the State. He has also hobnobbed with senior Congress leaders. Similar was the case with Zakir Naik. His social activities and religious appeal led to many senior members of the Congress allowing him a free run while he spewed communal venom during the UPA rule. Thus, the religion-social work-political support nexus can make an imposter into a self-styled godman.</p>

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<p>Today&rsquo;s godmen don&rsquo;t appear to trust God to protect them - they have their own private armies.</p>

<p>Three years ago, another one of this tribe, Sant Rampal of Haryana, had sought to cock a snook at the law of the land when the police had to move in to nab him. His private army, equipped to fight, kept vigil over his ashram in Hissar and robustly resisted the police.</p>

<p>Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh&rsquo;s supporters were armed with petrol bombs and other such implements. It may be recalled that a year ago, so-called spiritual leader Ramvriksh Yadav, who claimed to be a follower of Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose, had, along with supporters, occupied a public park and turned it into his sect&rsquo;s headquarters. It was doubtlessly done with the connivance of the some of the State&rsquo;s then ruling party leaders. When the administration was compelled to act against Yadav on court orders, mayhem resulted. The so-called spiritual leader&rsquo;s private army swung into action, leading to serious violence. There are those who believe that religion and spirituality shun violence, but sects run by the likes of Yadav and Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh certainly do not.</p>

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<h5>A journalist who had written a critical report on the Dera&rsquo;s functioning and its leader&rsquo;s notorious reputation, lost his life.&nbsp;</h5>
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<p>It can be argued that a majority of the followers of controversial godmen are naive, and they genuinely believe in the goodness of their leader. They have no opportunity to run away from this belief because that &lsquo;goodness&rsquo; is amplified many times over through sustained propaganda &mdash; when this does not work in certain cases, other, strong-arm methods are covertly applied. Critics of such leaders are known to have disappeared or died in suspicious circumstances. It happened in Sathya Sai Baba&rsquo;s case, and it happened in Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim&rsquo;s case either &mdash; a journalist, who had written a critical report on the Dera&rsquo;s functioning and its leader&rsquo;s notorious reputation, lost his life.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The rising stock of fake godmen in Indian society has also to do with the sense of dissatisfaction and mental unrest that has come with materialism and consumerism. It can be argued that both these reasons prevail in Western society too, and perhaps in a more acute form, and yet the dubious godmen phenomenon is more strongly rooted in India. This is true, but there are two differences. The first is that the Indian mind, evolved through generations of a particular cultural ethos which seeks to place spiritualism on a higher pedestal than materialism, gets easily rebellious and is more susceptible to be drawn towards a spiritual/religious calling &mdash; even if it is to be satiated by questionable quarters.&nbsp;</p>

<p>The second reason has to do with the flexibility of Hinduism &mdash; the country&rsquo;s majority religion. This flexibility has indeed been Hinduism&rsquo;s strength, preventing it from becoming rigid, unchanging and exclusive. It has allowed the prosperity of other religions too, some new and others that spun off from Hinduism itself and evolved as independent entities. There has been no central institutionalised authority to guide the affairs of an ordinary Hindu. But this commendable feature also allowed space to all sorts of dubious elements to project themselves as spiritual or religious leaders, or even incarnations of God, who had the mandate to do anything.<strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>

<p>And yet, despite the bleak present, there is hope for future through the exposure of the likes of Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh. Indian society ought to be rattled enough to abandon the lure of false godmen and delve into the life and works of the country&rsquo;s great spiritual leaders, such as the icons of the Bhakti movement, for a meaningful life.</p>


Dera Sacha Sauda movement is not going to disappear with its leader secured behind bars.

Godmen, even the fake ones, know what the sacred texts say - ‘You reap what you sow’. Dera Sacha Sauda chief, who goes by the name of Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh— a farcical attempt to symbolise communal togetherness — has been convicted by a CBI court for rape and sentenced to 10 years of rigorous imprisonment. It’s taken 15 years for justice to come, but as a popular line in Hindi films goes, “Kanoon ke hath bahut lambey hain” (the hands of the law are longer). Still, many would say that it’s too little as a punishment for a repeated crime of such heinous nature; he ought to have been given a life term. The phenomenon of fake godmen did not begin with this baba nor will it will end with him. × Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh is one among the many discredited so-called godmen the Indian society has grappled with and will continue to do so. This is because the phenomenon of fake godmen did not begin with this baba nor will it will end with him. But, how is it that a society which has been enlightened spiritually and shown the path to true devotion from the likes of Ramakrishna Paramhansa and Ramanna Maharishi and Swami Vivekananda, from saints such as Tukaram and Namdev and Hazrat Nizamuddin, to Sri Aurobindo and J Krishnamurthy, and from devotees like Mirabai, should fall into the clutches of the likes of Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh and Asaram Bapu and Nityananda — and preachers of the Zakir Naik kind? Make no mistake, the Dera Sacha Sauda movement is not going to disappear with its leader secured behind bars. Asaram Bapu’s devotees are still out there in thousands across the country. Give these devotees all the evidence against their revered spiritual leader — even evidence of rape — but they will just refuse to buy it. They will see conspiracies behind the actions against their babas and swamis and will come out on the streets in violent protest. What makes the forgery tick and why? Today’s devotee seeks instant nirvana and is attracted by glamorous displays of the path to salvation. × One reason is the mindset of contemporary society. Today’s devotee seeks instant nirvana and is attracted by glamorous displays of the path to salvation. It has no patience with the ascetic withdrawn from daily life, who lays down a long and difficult road to enlightenment. Such a follower sees nothing aberrant in a godman acting in films, dressing in a hilarious manner, and indulging in politics and immorality. Of course, this is not enough for a godman to win over lakhs of supporters. He spins off various charitable activities, such as free schools and hospital to attract crowds and devotees. Some of them, such as the Dera chief, appeal to the conscience of marginalised sections of society who have been disappointed by the mainstream religious order and offer them an alternative. Once his charitable empire grows, so does his religious/spiritual domination. Soon, he begins to attract the attention of politicians who are ever on the prowl for vote-banks. That is how Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh grew in stature. And, this is the reason why Haryana Government dealt with the brewing crisis prior to his conviction with kid gloves. It has been reported that the Dera chief had extended his support to the BJP during the last Assembly election in the State. He has also hobnobbed with senior Congress leaders. Similar was the case with Zakir Naik. His social activities and religious appeal led to many senior members of the Congress allowing him a free run while he spewed communal venom during the UPA rule. Thus, the religion-social work-political support nexus can make an imposter into a self-styled godman. The religion-social work-political support nexus can make an imposter into a self-styled godman. × Today’s godmen don’t appear to trust God to protect them - they have their own private armies. Three years ago, another one of this tribe, Sant Rampal of Haryana, had sought to cock a snook at the law of the land when the police had to move in to nab him. His private army, equipped to fight, kept vigil over his ashram in Hissar and robustly resisted the police. Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh’s supporters were armed with petrol bombs and other such implements. It may be recalled that a year ago, so-called spiritual leader Ramvriksh Yadav, who claimed to be a follower of Netaji Subhas Chandra Bose, had, along with supporters, occupied a public park and turned it into his sect’s headquarters. It was doubtlessly done with the connivance of the some of the State’s then ruling party leaders. When the administration was compelled to act against Yadav on court orders, mayhem resulted. The so-called spiritual leader’s private army swung into action, leading to serious violence. There are those who believe that religion and spirituality shun violence, but sects run by the likes of Yadav and Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh certainly do not. A journalist who had written a critical report on the Dera’s functioning and its leader’s notorious reputation, lost his life. × It can be argued that a majority of the followers of controversial godmen are naive, and they genuinely believe in the goodness of their leader. They have no opportunity to run away from this belief because that ‘goodness’ is amplified many times over through sustained propaganda — when this does not work in certain cases, other, strong-arm methods are covertly applied. Critics of such leaders are known to have disappeared or died in suspicious circumstances. It happened in Sathya Sai Baba’s case, and it happened in Baba Gurmeet Ram Rahim’s case either — a journalist, who had written a critical report on the Dera’s functioning and its leader’s notorious reputation, lost his life. The rising stock of fake godmen in Indian society has also to do with the sense of dissatisfaction and mental unrest that has come with materialism and consumerism. It can be argued that both these reasons prevail in Western society too, and perhaps in a more acute form, and yet the dubious godmen phenomenon is more strongly rooted in India. This is true, but there are two differences. The first is that the Indian mind, evolved through generations of a particular cultural ethos which seeks to place spiritualism on a higher pedestal than materialism, gets easily rebellious and is more susceptible to be drawn towards a spiritual/religious calling — even if it is to be satiated by questionable quarters. The second reason has to do with the flexibility of Hinduism — the country’s majority religion. This flexibility has indeed been Hinduism’s strength, preventing it from becoming rigid, unchanging and exclusive. It has allowed the prosperity of other religions too, some new and others that spun off from Hinduism itself and evolved as independent entities. There has been no central institutionalised authority to guide the affairs of an ordinary Hindu. But this commendable feature also allowed space to all sorts of dubious elements to project themselves as spiritual or religious leaders, or even incarnations of God, who had the mandate to do anything. And yet, despite the bleak present, there is hope for future through the exposure of the likes of Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh. Indian society ought to be rattled enough to abandon the lure of false godmen and delve into the life and works of the country’s great spiritual leaders, such as the icons of the Bhakti movement, for a meaningful life.

Will Ram Rahim's imprisonment bring to an end the godman syndrome in India?

<p>A few days ago, the Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesperson informed that China had not shared hydrological data with India on the Himalayan rivers this year. He sought to downplay the development by explaining that &ldquo;sometimes, due to some certain technical reasons data is not shared&rdquo;. He was clueless about the &ldquo;technical reasons&rdquo; and said he would be better equipped on the issue once the information was received from the &ldquo;relevant ministry&rdquo;. The spokesperson&#39;s valiant effort to mute the issue may be understandable, given that the government would not like to indulge in the provocation at the backdrop of the ongoing India-China standoff at Doklam. But there is no running away from the significance of Beijing&rsquo;s action.</p>

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<p>China is upset that its dual cajole-threat tactic hasn&rsquo;t worked in its favour on the Doklam issue. New Delhi has dug in its heels, and it&rsquo;s now close to three months that Indian troops have been stationed at the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction, waiting for Beijing to withdraw its troops from Bhutanese territory. Perhaps, China has been taken by surprise &mdash; unlike in the past when India made light of incursions by the neighbour&rsquo;s People&rsquo;s Liberation Army, calling it a mere &ldquo;acne&rdquo; on the face.</p>

<p>This time, New Delhi appears in no mood to capitulate.</p>

<p>Besides, much to Beijing&rsquo;s annoyance, India continues to batter the former&rsquo;s all-weather friend Pakistan at international forums &mdash; to a level that Islamabad now stands globally discredited. Additionally, New Delhi&rsquo;s aggressive Act East policy has meant a sustained pressure on China in the region. It is, therefore, possible, that Beijing has decided to open a front in the form of a water war with India.</p>

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<p>In doing so, China is making a mockery of bilateral agreements with New Delhi. The India-China Expert Level mechanism was initiated in 2006 to share hydrological data during the flood season for the rivers Brahmaputra and Sutlej. Memorandums of Understanding were signed in 2013 and 2015, with China agreeing to share the data between May 15 to October 15 every year. Since the points of origin of the two rivers are in China, and China becomes the upper riparian state, it becomes Beijing&rsquo;s responsibility to offer hydrological material to India.</p>

<p>This sharing of data, from three upstream monitoring stations in Tibet, is critical to India&rsquo;s needs to contain floods in large parts of the country, especially in the North-East. Indeed, in recent days, northeastern states have been hit by serious floods, and while the government has not officially linked it to China&rsquo;s failure to share the data on Himalayan rivers emanating from the latter&rsquo;s territory, there is reason enough to speculate on the matter.</p>

<p>Interestingly, China and India do not have a bilateral treaty on water. This is unlike in the case of Pakistan with whom India has the Indus Water Treaty. The IWT has worked well by and large, though in recent months there have been some hiccups. New Delhi had proposed a water treaty to the Chinese in 2013, with the&nbsp;then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh taking a&nbsp;personal interest in the matter. But Beijing cold-shouldered the proposal. Clearly, it was uncomfortable with sharing certain material which would have been at variance with its officially stated position, especially relating to its dam construction projects on the Brahmaputra river.</p>

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<h5>It may be recollected that some 15 years ago, the collapse of an artificial dam in Tibet being built by the Chinese had a severe impact on Arunachal Pradesh, damaging property worth nearly Rs 150 crore.</h5>
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<p>In the absence of any water treaty, China sees an upper hand for itself. It has&nbsp;announced the construction of its &lsquo;most expensive&rsquo; hydel project on a tributary of the Brahmaputra, in Tibet. Obviously, the river will be considerably dammed upstream, and its deleterious impact will be felt by India in terms of natural calamities. A major diversion of the Brahmaputra river through a dam could be disastrous for India&rsquo;s northeastern plains &mdash; and even for&nbsp;neighbouring Bangladesh.</p>

<p>The effect will be furthered as a result of India not having the information and, therefore, inadequately prepared. Beijing has been consistently saying that its activities will not adversely impact India, but its refusal to share hydrological data dents such offerings of sincerity. It may be recollected that some 15 years ago, the collapse of an artificial dam in Tibet being built by the Chinese had a severe impact on Arunachal Pradesh, damaging property worth nearly Rs 150 crore.</p>

<p>There is also a strategic reason for China&rsquo;s construction of a hydel project in Tibet. It&rsquo;s a way of sending a message to India on its claim over Arunachal Pradesh &mdash; after all, Beijing considers Arunachal Pradesh as part of Tibet.</p>

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<h5>As per bilateral accords, it would be unrealistic to expect that Beijing will, at least in the near future and in the given situation, be ready for a water-sharing treaty.</h5>
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<p>Of course, the sharing of hydrological data will not make India any wiser on the various activities the Chinese have been surreptitiously undertaking on the Himalayan rivers that flow into India from their end. Only a comprehensive water treaty can introduce such transparency. This is the main reason that New Delhi has been seeking to persuade Beijing to enter into a bilateral water pact. But at a time when China has begun to hesitate to even give India the hydrological data which it is mandated to do, as per bilateral accords, it would be unrealistic to expect that Beijing will, at least in the near future and in the given situation, be ready for a water-sharing treaty.</p>

<p>What then is the option before India? It cannot obviously compel China to enter into a bilateral water-sharing pact. But it can and must forcefully demand the relevant hydrological data which Beijing is duty-bound to share as part of the bilateral accords. There is no point in downplaying the Chinese delay. New Delhi needs to understand &mdash; perhaps it does but doesn&rsquo;t want to publicly acknowledge it &mdash; that China is using water (either through the denial of hydrological data or by its dam construction activities upstream on rivers that flow into India) as a potent weapon against India. New Delhi is on firm grounds here, and perhaps a bit of escalation of the issue from its side at an appropriate moment to draw some global attention, would not be such a bad idea.</p>

<p>After all, even if China does eventually give the hydrological data, the massive hydel projects it is pursuing and which cause concern to New Delhi, cannot be overlooked anymore. We have come a long way since the days when the&nbsp;then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had in 2013 claimed there was nothing to worry by the activities the Chinese had been engaged in the upper Brahmaputra river region.</p>


Through the denial of hydrological data and by constructing dams upstream on rivers that flow into India, China can use water as a potent weapon against India.

A few days ago, the Indian External Affairs Ministry spokesperson informed that China had not shared hydrological data with India on the Himalayan rivers this year. He sought to downplay the development by explaining that “sometimes, due to some certain technical reasons data is not shared”. He was clueless about the “technical reasons” and said he would be better equipped on the issue once the information was received from the “relevant ministry”. The spokesperson's valiant effort to mute the issue may be understandable, given that the government would not like to indulge in the provocation at the backdrop of the ongoing India-China standoff at Doklam. But there is no running away from the significance of Beijing’s action. It is possible, that Beijing has decided to open a front in the form of a water war with India. × China is upset that its dual cajole-threat tactic hasn’t worked in its favour on the Doklam issue. New Delhi has dug in its heels, and it’s now close to three months that Indian troops have been stationed at the India-China-Bhutan tri-junction, waiting for Beijing to withdraw its troops from Bhutanese territory. Perhaps, China has been taken by surprise — unlike in the past when India made light of incursions by the neighbour’s People’s Liberation Army, calling it a mere “acne” on the face. This time, New Delhi appears in no mood to capitulate. Besides, much to Beijing’s annoyance, India continues to batter the former’s all-weather friend Pakistan at international forums — to a level that Islamabad now stands globally discredited. Additionally, New Delhi’s aggressive Act East policy has meant a sustained pressure on China in the region. It is, therefore, possible, that Beijing has decided to open a front in the form of a water war with India. Since the points of origin of the two rivers are in China, and China becomes the upper riparian state, it becomes Beijing’s responsibility to offer hydrological material to India. × In doing so, China is making a mockery of bilateral agreements with New Delhi. The India-China Expert Level mechanism was initiated in 2006 to share hydrological data during the flood season for the rivers Brahmaputra and Sutlej. Memorandums of Understanding were signed in 2013 and 2015, with China agreeing to share the data between May 15 to October 15 every year. Since the points of origin of the two rivers are in China, and China becomes the upper riparian state, it becomes Beijing’s responsibility to offer hydrological material to India. This sharing of data, from three upstream monitoring stations in Tibet, is critical to India’s needs to contain floods in large parts of the country, especially in the North-East. Indeed, in recent days, northeastern states have been hit by serious floods, and while the government has not officially linked it to China’s failure to share the data on Himalayan rivers emanating from the latter’s territory, there is reason enough to speculate on the matter. Interestingly, China and India do not have a bilateral treaty on water. This is unlike in the case of Pakistan with whom India has the Indus Water Treaty. The IWT has worked well by and large, though in recent months there have been some hiccups. New Delhi had proposed a water treaty to the Chinese in 2013, with the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh taking a personal interest in the matter. But Beijing cold-shouldered the proposal. Clearly, it was uncomfortable with sharing certain material which would have been at variance with its officially stated position, especially relating to its dam construction projects on the Brahmaputra river. It may be recollected that some 15 years ago, the collapse of an artificial dam in Tibet being built by the Chinese had a severe impact on Arunachal Pradesh, damaging property worth nearly Rs 150 crore. × In the absence of any water treaty, China sees an upper hand for itself. It has announced the construction of its ‘most expensive’ hydel project on a tributary of the Brahmaputra, in Tibet. Obviously, the river will be considerably dammed upstream, and its deleterious impact will be felt by India in terms of natural calamities. A major diversion of the Brahmaputra river through a dam could be disastrous for India’s northeastern plains — and even for neighbouring Bangladesh. The effect will be furthered as a result of India not having the information and, therefore, inadequately prepared. Beijing has been consistently saying that its activities will not adversely impact India, but its refusal to share hydrological data dents such offerings of sincerity. It may be recollected that some 15 years ago, the collapse of an artificial dam in Tibet being built by the Chinese had a severe impact on Arunachal Pradesh, damaging property worth nearly Rs 150 crore. There is also a strategic reason for China’s construction of a hydel project in Tibet. It’s a way of sending a message to India on its claim over Arunachal Pradesh — after all, Beijing considers Arunachal Pradesh as part of Tibet. As per bilateral accords, it would be unrealistic to expect that Beijing will, at least in the near future and in the given situation, be ready for a water-sharing treaty. × Of course, the sharing of hydrological data will not make India any wiser on the various activities the Chinese have been surreptitiously undertaking on the Himalayan rivers that flow into India from their end. Only a comprehensive water treaty can introduce such transparency. This is the main reason that New Delhi has been seeking to persuade Beijing to enter into a bilateral water pact. But at a time when China has begun to hesitate to even give India the hydrological data which it is mandated to do, as per bilateral accords, it would be unrealistic to expect that Beijing will, at least in the near future and in the given situation, be ready for a water-sharing treaty. What then is the option before India? It cannot obviously compel China to enter into a bilateral water-sharing pact. But it can and must forcefully demand the relevant hydrological data which Beijing is duty-bound to share as part of the bilateral accords. There is no point in downplaying the Chinese delay. New Delhi needs to understand — perhaps it does but doesn’t want to publicly acknowledge it — that China is using water (either through the denial of hydrological data or by its dam construction activities upstream on rivers that flow into India) as a potent weapon against India. New Delhi is on firm grounds here, and perhaps a bit of escalation of the issue from its side at an appropriate moment to draw some global attention, would not be such a bad idea. After all, even if China does eventually give the hydrological data, the massive hydel projects it is pursuing and which cause concern to New Delhi, cannot be overlooked anymore. We have come a long way since the days when the then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had in 2013 claimed there was nothing to worry by the activities the Chinese had been engaged in the upper Brahmaputra river region.

Is China using water as a potent weapon against India?

<p>Strange things have been happening in the Samajwadi party (SP) in the last seven months, and they have had nothing to do with Socialism on which bedrock the party rests. The sense of calm and placidity which characterised it in the 25 years of its existence, at least in terms of internal cohesiveness, began to be shattered from November onwards last year, with powerful party leader Shivpal Yadav and then Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav at daggers drawn.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Whatever happens from then on, the Samajwadi party will no longer be the same. The long-term impact of these developments on its electoral fortunes, which have taken a nosedive in recent times, remains to be seen. For now, the picture is not rosy. Consumed by internecine strife, it was drubbed in the Assembly election, and it will soon face the electorate in the urban body polls in this sorry situation.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>There is an air of desperation in the two warring camps. The level of surrealism can be understood by the fact that the SP&rsquo;s defeat actually brought relief to the Shivpal faction. The outcome strengthened Shivpal Yadav&rsquo;s hand against his nephew who was squarely held responsible for the debacle. But if the senior Yadav was expecting a massive revolt against Akhilesh post-defeat, that didn&rsquo;t happen.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>So, Shivpal Yadav has decided to carry out his threat of floating a new alternative outfit to take on the Akhilesh-led Samajwadi Party &mdash; something he had hinted at before the election when he saw organisational power slipping out of his hands. The Samajwadi Secular Morcha is his baby &mdash; conceived though yet to be born formally.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>But the birth process has run into complications and caused some amount of cheer to the Akhilesh group. Shivpal had confidently announced that the Morcha had the blessings of SP patriarch, his elder brother and Akhilesh&rsquo;s father Mulayam Singh Yadav. To call Mulayam Singh Yadav the party supremo any longer would be to rub salt into his wounds, given that the Akhilesh camp had ousted him from the national president&rsquo;s post. But Mulayam was quick to distance himself from the idea, claiming that he had not been consulted and that he would not want the party to split.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>It is essentially Mulayam Singh Yadav&rsquo;s ambivalence that has kept the pot boiling. The veteran politician is caught in multiple dilemmas. He does not want a split in a party he toiled to create and establish as one of Uttar Pradesh&rsquo;s strongest political outfits and, yet, he is unhappy with the party as it exists today. He also cannot endure the sidelining of his brother Shivpal who has been with him through thick and thin, particularly during the Samajwadi Party&rsquo;s formative phases. Besides, he feels humiliated over the manner he has been personally dealt with. Yet, he cannot altogether abandon his son, though he has made his preference for Shivpal obvious.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>If Shivpal eventually manages to get his elder brother and SP&rsquo;s tallest leader&rsquo;s consent, then his Morcha will acquire overnight credibility. Else, it will end up as an amateurish attempt by a disgruntled, even discredited, leader who is out of sync with a &lsquo;young and progressive&rsquo; Akhilesh.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Samajwadi Party has opened itself to all sorts of peculiar situations, and the Morcha attempts to cause damage to the Akhilesh-led party and push him to hand over charge to the old guard. In the run-up to the election, the party had talked of being united, but both the Akhilesh and the Shivpal factions had moved the Election Commission of India for propriety over the &lsquo;Cycle&rsquo; symbol, each claiming to be the &lsquo;real&rsquo; Samajwadi Party. By all logic, such unity was bizarre. Neither the voters nor the party workers were fooled by the facade of projected wellness.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The two groups were also sharply divided over contesting elections in partnership with the Congress. The Akhilesh camp wanted a tie-up; the Shivpal faction was opposed. The former had its way, with the result that neither Shivpal nor Mulayam campaigned extensively or enthusiastically for the party &mdash; and certainly not in constituencies where the Congress had put up its candidates through an arrangement with the SP.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>It was clear, as the battle went on, that the real war would be after the result was out. Had the Akhilesh-led SP won, it would have been an end to Shivpal&rsquo;s ambitions, and the sidelining of his supporters within the party would have been a done deal. But defeat happened, and it emboldened Shivpal. Now, it&rsquo;s not just Shivpal Yadav&rsquo;s political future which is at stake; Akhilesh too stares at uncertainty. The party may be defeated but it&rsquo;s not dead. The new round will determine who will control it.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Shivpal Yadav is an old hand in politics. In tentatively announcing his Morcha, he has cleverly referred to issues that no Samajwadi can possibly disagree with: First, there is the need for a fresh thrust towards &lsquo;secularism&rsquo;. Second, the Socialist ideals must be protected. Third, it&rsquo;s incumbent on all Samajwadi elements to work to restore to their leader Mulayam Singh Yadav his &lsquo;lost glory&rsquo;. The problem is: Just how will the cause of secularism be promoted by a division in the so-called secular forces?&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>As for fighting for the ideals of Socialism, nobody seriously believes that the present-day Samajwadis are Socialists in the sense that Socialism has evolved over the past three centuries in a structured form. Even Ram Manohar Lohia would find it difficult to identify strands of Socialism in the Samajwadi Party, not to speak of Henri de Saint-Simon who created the term as we understand it today and which was later built upon by the likes of Karl Marx to propound his political theory based on a materialist understanding of socio-economic phenomena.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The Samajwadi Party&rsquo;s crisis is a godsend for its regional rival: Mayawati and her Bahujan Samaj Party. Reeling under two back to back defeats &mdash; in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and the 2017 Assembly poll &mdash; the BSP&rsquo;s hopes now rest on the decline of the SP. It&rsquo;s not that the SP&rsquo;s entire vote-bank will shift to the BSP if the former weakens further, but the minority votes will be for its asking in such a situation.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The tantalising question is: If Mulayam Singh Yadav, unable to take sides in the internal feud, recedes into the background, will that make it easier for the SP and the BSP to partner each other to take on Narendra Modi&rsquo;s Bharatiya Janata Party? &nbsp;</p>


Will Samajwadi Secular Morcha create further split in the Samajwadi Party?

Strange things have been happening in the Samajwadi party (SP) in the last seven months, and they have had nothing to do with Socialism on which bedrock the party rests. The sense of calm and placidity which characterised it in the 25 years of its existence, at least in terms of internal cohesiveness, began to be shattered from November onwards last year, with powerful party leader Shivpal Yadav and then Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav at daggers drawn. Whatever happens from then on, the Samajwadi party will no longer be the same. The long-term impact of these developments on its electoral fortunes, which have taken a nosedive in recent times, remains to be seen. For now, the picture is not rosy. Consumed by internecine strife, it was drubbed in the Assembly election, and it will soon face the electorate in the urban body polls in this sorry situation. There is an air of desperation in the two warring camps. The level of surrealism can be understood by the fact that the SP’s defeat actually brought relief to the Shivpal faction. The outcome strengthened Shivpal Yadav’s hand against his nephew who was squarely held responsible for the debacle. But if the senior Yadav was expecting a massive revolt against Akhilesh post-defeat, that didn’t happen. So, Shivpal Yadav has decided to carry out his threat of floating a new alternative outfit to take on the Akhilesh-led Samajwadi Party — something he had hinted at before the election when he saw organisational power slipping out of his hands. The Samajwadi Secular Morcha is his baby — conceived though yet to be born formally. But the birth process has run into complications and caused some amount of cheer to the Akhilesh group. Shivpal had confidently announced that the Morcha had the blessings of SP patriarch, his elder brother and Akhilesh’s father Mulayam Singh Yadav. To call Mulayam Singh Yadav the party supremo any longer would be to rub salt into his wounds, given that the Akhilesh camp had ousted him from the national president’s post. But Mulayam was quick to distance himself from the idea, claiming that he had not been consulted and that he would not want the party to split. It is essentially Mulayam Singh Yadav’s ambivalence that has kept the pot boiling. The veteran politician is caught in multiple dilemmas. He does not want a split in a party he toiled to create and establish as one of Uttar Pradesh’s strongest political outfits and, yet, he is unhappy with the party as it exists today. He also cannot endure the sidelining of his brother Shivpal who has been with him through thick and thin, particularly during the Samajwadi Party’s formative phases. Besides, he feels humiliated over the manner he has been personally dealt with. Yet, he cannot altogether abandon his son, though he has made his preference for Shivpal obvious. If Shivpal eventually manages to get his elder brother and SP’s tallest leader’s consent, then his Morcha will acquire overnight credibility. Else, it will end up as an amateurish attempt by a disgruntled, even discredited, leader who is out of sync with a ‘young and progressive’ Akhilesh. The Samajwadi Party has opened itself to all sorts of peculiar situations, and the Morcha attempts to cause damage to the Akhilesh-led party and push him to hand over charge to the old guard. In the run-up to the election, the party had talked of being united, but both the Akhilesh and the Shivpal factions had moved the Election Commission of India for propriety over the ‘Cycle’ symbol, each claiming to be the ‘real’ Samajwadi Party. By all logic, such unity was bizarre. Neither the voters nor the party workers were fooled by the facade of projected wellness. The two groups were also sharply divided over contesting elections in partnership with the Congress. The Akhilesh camp wanted a tie-up; the Shivpal faction was opposed. The former had its way, with the result that neither Shivpal nor Mulayam campaigned extensively or enthusiastically for the party — and certainly not in constituencies where the Congress had put up its candidates through an arrangement with the SP. It was clear, as the battle went on, that the real war would be after the result was out. Had the Akhilesh-led SP won, it would have been an end to Shivpal’s ambitions, and the sidelining of his supporters within the party would have been a done deal. But defeat happened, and it emboldened Shivpal. Now, it’s not just Shivpal Yadav’s political future which is at stake; Akhilesh too stares at uncertainty. The party may be defeated but it’s not dead. The new round will determine who will control it. Shivpal Yadav is an old hand in politics. In tentatively announcing his Morcha, he has cleverly referred to issues that no Samajwadi can possibly disagree with: First, there is the need for a fresh thrust towards ‘secularism’. Second, the Socialist ideals must be protected. Third, it’s incumbent on all Samajwadi elements to work to restore to their leader Mulayam Singh Yadav his ‘lost glory’. The problem is: Just how will the cause of secularism be promoted by a division in the so-called secular forces? As for fighting for the ideals of Socialism, nobody seriously believes that the present-day Samajwadis are Socialists in the sense that Socialism has evolved over the past three centuries in a structured form. Even Ram Manohar Lohia would find it difficult to identify strands of Socialism in the Samajwadi Party, not to speak of Henri de Saint-Simon who created the term as we understand it today and which was later built upon by the likes of Karl Marx to propound his political theory based on a materialist understanding of socio-economic phenomena. The Samajwadi Party’s crisis is a godsend for its regional rival: Mayawati and her Bahujan Samaj Party. Reeling under two back to back defeats — in the 2014 Lok Sabha election and the 2017 Assembly poll — the BSP’s hopes now rest on the decline of the SP. It’s not that the SP’s entire vote-bank will shift to the BSP if the former weakens further, but the minority votes will be for its asking in such a situation. The tantalising question is: If Mulayam Singh Yadav, unable to take sides in the internal feud, recedes into the background, will that make it easier for the SP and the BSP to partner each other to take on Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party?

Mulyam Singh Yadav's family members are at daggers drawn

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>In less than three months after becoming prime minister in May 2014, Narendra Modi had visited Nepal and addressed its Constituent Assembly. Nepal was then in the process of finalising its Constitution in the backdrop of the Madhesi demand to have a greater say and representation in the policymaking process. Modi offered some advice to members of the Constituent Assembly, saying that a consensual and not majority-driven approach was needed to shape the Constitution; that the Constitution integrated the nation&rsquo;s past, present and history. The prime minister hastened to underline that India did not wish to interfere in the affairs of its neighbour but merely to support it.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Neither did Modi forget to applaud the nation for preferring the ballot over the bullet. In this case, the prime minister was, of course, referring to the Pushpa Kamal Dahal &lsquo;Prachanda&rsquo;-led communist party&rsquo;s discontinuation of the 10-year long People&rsquo;s War and its decision to join the national mainstream politics.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>That now seems so long ago. Nepal is still struggling to frame a Constitution acceptable to the Madhesi groups. Prachanda is now the prime minister of Nepal. When Modi made his speech, Prachanda&nbsp;was on the Opposition and had vigorously applauded the Indian prime minister&#39;s exhortations. He was then on the Madhesi side, having aligned with them after giving up the armed struggle. Prachanda&nbsp;understood and appreciated their concerns and seemed to know the solution almost as well as the agitated Madhesis did. And yet, today, he too like his immediate predecessors, finds himself in the dock for not having done the needful.</p>

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<p>The prominent Madhesi political outfits, now accumulated under the banner of the United Madhesi Democratic Front (UDMF), have withdrawn support from the Prachanda regime. They have threatened to disrupt the local body elections that are being held after a gap of two decades. Further, UDMF has pledged to intensify their agitation in support of their demand for changes in the Constitution, thus, squarely pitting themselves against their one-time ally.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>A desperate attempt was made to cool tempers with the registration of a joint amendment proposal to the Constitution, presented by Prachanda&rsquo;s CPN (Maoist Centre), the Nepali Congress, the Madhesi Front and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, but that has not gone beyond the initial stage. Both Prachanda and the UDMF have blamed each other for being unreasonable and rigid.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>India is caught in a bind. It has traditionally backed the Madhesis, to the extent that it has been accused by assorted politicians in Nepal of not just inciting the Madhesis but also interfering in that country&rsquo;s internal affairs. Last year&rsquo;s memory of the blockade is still fresh in the minds of people on both sides of the open border. Kathmandu, which then had a government led by KPS OIi, had openly accused New Delhi of inflaming passions and backing the blockade put up by agitating Madhesi mobs.&nbsp;</p>

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<p>A bunch of Nepalese politicians, probably to deflect attention from their failure to effectively address the grievances of the Madhesi community, sought to build a strong anti-India sentiment. They did succeed to the extent of undoing the goodwill that Modi&rsquo;s visits had created. But that failed to settle their internal problem. New Delhi is apprehensive of yet another bout of violent protests by the Madhesi groups but is also acutely aware of Prachanda&rsquo;s failure so far to tackle the matter to the satisfaction of all. It would have preferred to keep away but it cannot because unrest in Nepal has ramifications for India.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Prime Minister Prachanda has added to the dilemma by calling up Modi and seeking his help in the conduct of the local body polls. The Indian prime minister has assured of support. It&rsquo;s unclear what form that support is supposed to take, but it cannot be in the shape of any direct intervention. The UDMF is understandably upset at New Delhi&rsquo;s readiness to extend cooperation because it had expected India to use its leverage to persuade the Prachanda regime to accept at least a few of their key demands straightaway. Given this background, the Madhesis are unlikely to now heed any word of advice from India.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>New Delhi has issues other than the Madhesi problem to contend with, vis-a-vis Nepal. It does not want to alienate Kathmandu at a time when China is making big pushes into that country, luring Kathmandu with road and rail projects. During the blockade period of nearly four months, Nepal had turned to Beijing for the supply of essential goods, and China had readily obliged. Though the extent of material help Beijing can give to Nepal, and in time, is severely limited by geographical constraints, the fact that Kathmandu is drawing closer to the China orbit, is not something that New Delhi can be comfortable with.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The problem, though, is: Regardless of the support India extends to the Prachanda government &mdash; and to that which may come in its place &mdash; it will neither be able to cut itself off from the Madhesi issue nor be able to pre-empt the feeling that when it comes to the crunch, New Delhi will stand by the Madhesis. The historical and cultural baggage is far too big to be ignored. Besides, a strong section of the Indian political class, despite having a soft corner for the Prachanda-led communists, is deeply aligned with the Madhesi cause and is likely to pressure the government to walk the middle path.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

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<p>Allegations of Indian interference have been levelled before &mdash; even during the times of monarchy &mdash; and they will be made time and again. The monarchy, it may be recalled, had rebuffed the Indian representative Karan Singh when he had gone to Nepal with a message from the Indian leadership to see reason and step aside in 2006. King Gyanendra did quit, ending a 14-month long direct reign, but not before snubbing Karan Singh and accusing India of forcing his hand.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Organisations in Nepal, fighting for an end to the monarchy, should have been grateful for the Indian intervention. Many were, but there was dismay among the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist), who believed that New Delhi had supported Prachanda&rsquo;s outfit at the cost of their own. Over the decades, various Nepalese politicians and even the intelligentsia there have accused India&rsquo;s R&amp;AW of fomenting trouble in the Himalayan kingdom.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The present argument is that the Madhesi grouping should allow local body elections to be held in a peaceful and fair manner and then use the goodwill so generated to coax the Prachanda government into acceding to its demands. Disruptions at this stage would only worsen the situation and delay a resolution. Prachanda has already promised a solution following the by-polls. But the Madhesis seem to have lost all faith in the Nepalese prime minister. These are anxious moments for India.</p>


Evidently, the Indian-origin Madhesi community in Nepal has lost faith in Prime Minister Prachanda

In less than three months after becoming prime minister in May 2014, Narendra Modi had visited Nepal and addressed its Constituent Assembly. Nepal was then in the process of finalising its Constitution in the backdrop of the Madhesi demand to have a greater say and representation in the policymaking process. Modi offered some advice to members of the Constituent Assembly, saying that a consensual and not majority-driven approach was needed to shape the Constitution; that the Constitution integrated the nation’s past, present and history. The prime minister hastened to underline that India did not wish to interfere in the affairs of its neighbour but merely to support it. Neither did Modi forget to applaud the nation for preferring the ballot over the bullet. In this case, the prime minister was, of course, referring to the Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’-led communist party’s discontinuation of the 10-year long People’s War and its decision to join the national mainstream politics. That now seems so long ago. Nepal is still struggling to frame a Constitution acceptable to the Madhesi groups. Prachanda is now the prime minister of Nepal. When Modi made his speech, Prachanda was on the Opposition and had vigorously applauded the Indian prime minister's exhortations. He was then on the Madhesi side, having aligned with them after giving up the armed struggle. Prachanda understood and appreciated their concerns and seemed to know the solution almost as well as the agitated Madhesis did. And yet, today, he too like his immediate predecessors, finds himself in the dock for not having done the needful. Both Prachanda and the UDMF have blamed each other for being unreasonable and rigid. × The prominent Madhesi political outfits, now accumulated under the banner of the United Madhesi Democratic Front (UDMF), have withdrawn support from the Prachanda regime. They have threatened to disrupt the local body elections that are being held after a gap of two decades. Further, UDMF has pledged to intensify their agitation in support of their demand for changes in the Constitution, thus, squarely pitting themselves against their one-time ally. A desperate attempt was made to cool tempers with the registration of a joint amendment proposal to the Constitution, presented by Prachanda’s CPN (Maoist Centre), the Nepali Congress, the Madhesi Front and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party, but that has not gone beyond the initial stage. Both Prachanda and the UDMF have blamed each other for being unreasonable and rigid. India is caught in a bind. It has traditionally backed the Madhesis, to the extent that it has been accused by assorted politicians in Nepal of not just inciting the Madhesis but also interfering in that country’s internal affairs. Last year’s memory of the blockade is still fresh in the minds of people on both sides of the open border. Kathmandu, which then had a government led by KPS OIi, had openly accused New Delhi of inflaming passions and backing the blockade put up by agitating Madhesi mobs. New Delhi is apprehensive of yet another bout of violent protests by the Madhesi groups but is also acutely aware of Prachanda’s failure × A bunch of Nepalese politicians, probably to deflect attention from their failure to effectively address the grievances of the Madhesi community, sought to build a strong anti-India sentiment. They did succeed to the extent of undoing the goodwill that Modi’s visits had created. But that failed to settle their internal problem. New Delhi is apprehensive of yet another bout of violent protests by the Madhesi groups but is also acutely aware of Prachanda’s failure so far to tackle the matter to the satisfaction of all. It would have preferred to keep away but it cannot because unrest in Nepal has ramifications for India. Prime Minister Prachanda has added to the dilemma by calling up Modi and seeking his help in the conduct of the local body polls. The Indian prime minister has assured of support. It’s unclear what form that support is supposed to take, but it cannot be in the shape of any direct intervention. The UDMF is understandably upset at New Delhi’s readiness to extend cooperation because it had expected India to use its leverage to persuade the Prachanda regime to accept at least a few of their key demands straightaway. Given this background, the Madhesis are unlikely to now heed any word of advice from India. New Delhi has issues other than the Madhesi problem to contend with, vis-a-vis Nepal. It does not want to alienate Kathmandu at a time when China is making big pushes into that country, luring Kathmandu with road and rail projects. During the blockade period of nearly four months, Nepal had turned to Beijing for the supply of essential goods, and China had readily obliged. Though the extent of material help Beijing can give to Nepal, and in time, is severely limited by geographical constraints, the fact that Kathmandu is drawing closer to the China orbit, is not something that New Delhi can be comfortable with. The problem, though, is: Regardless of the support India extends to the Prachanda government — and to that which may come in its place — it will neither be able to cut itself off from the Madhesi issue nor be able to pre-empt the feeling that when it comes to the crunch, New Delhi will stand by the Madhesis. The historical and cultural baggage is far too big to be ignored. Besides, a strong section of the Indian political class, despite having a soft corner for the Prachanda-led communists, is deeply aligned with the Madhesi cause and is likely to pressure the government to walk the middle path. Over the decades, various Nepalese politicians and even the intelligentsia there have accused India’s R&AW of fomenting trouble in the Himalayan kingdom. × Allegations of Indian interference have been levelled before — even during the times of monarchy — and they will be made time and again. The monarchy, it may be recalled, had rebuffed the Indian representative Karan Singh when he had gone to Nepal with a message from the Indian leadership to see reason and step aside in 2006. King Gyanendra did quit, ending a 14-month long direct reign, but not before snubbing Karan Singh and accusing India of forcing his hand. Organisations in Nepal, fighting for an end to the monarchy, should have been grateful for the Indian intervention. Many were, but there was dismay among the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist Leninist), who believed that New Delhi had supported Prachanda’s outfit at the cost of their own. Over the decades, various Nepalese politicians and even the intelligentsia there have accused India’s R&AW of fomenting trouble in the Himalayan kingdom. The present argument is that the Madhesi grouping should allow local body elections to be held in a peaceful and fair manner and then use the goodwill so generated to coax the Prachanda government into acceding to its demands. Disruptions at this stage would only worsen the situation and delay a resolution. Prachanda has already promised a solution following the by-polls. But the Madhesis seem to have lost all faith in the Nepalese prime minister. These are anxious moments for India.

Prachanda and Madhesi: India is troubled by the political crisis in Nepal

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>In an electoral defeat, only half the battle is lost. The other half also goes when a vanquished political party refuses to acknowledge the reasons for the setback and takes refuge in excuses. In doing so, the party nips in the bud chances of an honest appraisal, subsequent corrective measures, and hopes of a comeback. One may wonder: Why would any political organisation want to willingly commit harakiri? It would, if its senior leadership has slipped into a delusional mode. Take the example of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which appears determined to self-destruct.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>This may sound like an exaggeration. The AAP is still dominant in the Delhi Assembly, having 66 out of 70 seats and is set to complete its five-year term unless there is a massive split in the party. It has a vast network of workers in the capital-state. It has spread its wings in neighbouring Punjab, has a semblance of an organisation in Goa, and is gearing up to fight the Gujarat Assembly election in the year-end. This should be quite a feat for a barely four-year-old party.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Ironically, the initial successes paved the way for the AAP&rsquo;s subsequent decline, as they made the party leadership over-confident, arrogant and oblivious to the people&rsquo;s changing mood. For all its grand talk of connecting with the masses, the AAP has never been more disconnected.</p>

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<p>The Rajouri Garden by-election result in the party&rsquo;s stronghold of Delhi is a telling instance. Not only did the AAP lose a seat it had held but it also lost its deposit. The Congress, which had been decimated in the 2015 Assembly poll, pushed the ruling party to the third spot; the Bharatiya Janata Party, which had been routed, made a triumphant return by bagging the seat. Delhi Chief Minister and AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal&rsquo;s reaction demonstrated the party&rsquo;s unwillingness to see the writing on the wall. He claimed that the people had punished the AAP for having shifted its sitting legislator from Rajouri Garden to contest a seat in Punjab.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>One is not sure if the voters had perceived the shift as a crime which deserved punishment &mdash; but even if they did, was the crime of such a serious nature that the party should have lost its deposit? Kejriwal and his team know the answers lie elsewhere &mdash; they are not that dense &mdash; but they will not admit.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>It can be said that one swallow does not make a summer. But Rajouri Garden is not the only setback for the Aam Aadmi Party. It had made a big show of creating a splash in Goa when it decided to contest 39 of the 40 Assembly seats. Its candidates lost deposits in all but one constituency. Senior leaders from Kejriwal down had at various times camped and aggressively campaigned in Goa, hoping to cash in on a divided Congress and a BJP battling against a splinter group of the RSS and its partner, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The AAP may not have hoped to govern Goa, but it had expected better than losing security money all over the state. In Punjab, though, it was confident of forming the government. The situation seemed made-to-order for the AAP: the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP ruling coalition had fallen into disrepute and the Congress was a tried, tested and rejected option. Besides, all four Lok Sabha members the AAP had, were from Punjab, and they were expected to provide the necessary momentum. There was even talk of Kejriwal shifting to Punjab as the chief minister once his party won the election. But his party was humbled, securing just 20 seats, which were just a few more than the third-placed Akali Dal-BJP&rsquo;s tally.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

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<p>With three back-to-back defeats, the AAP is no longer on a sound footing. Rumblings have already begun within the party &mdash; a few of AAP&#39;s&nbsp;leaders have quit and joined its rivals and more could in the coming months &mdash; and the future is suddenly not so bright. If the party does not fare well in the coming Municipal Corporation of Delhi elections, Kejriwal and his coterie will not have a fig leaf to hide behind. The party may have survived the departure of Yogendra Yadav/ Prashant Bhushan-led group which essentially had no mass base, but it&rsquo;s unlikely to bounce back in time for the 2019 Lok Sabha election and the Delhi Assembly poll a year after that, in case it fails in its bid to gain dominance over the MCD.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>So, what went wrong for the AAP? Three primary reasons. The first is that the party has forgotten its core, which lies at its origin. It was born out of an anti-corruption/anti-criminalisation of politics movement. But as it settled down into its term after securing a hefty majority, many of its leaders came under the scanner for irregularities and criminal activities. Little action was taken against them. Worse, the government itself took questionable decisions, such as the appointment of parliamentary secretaries. When the likes of Prashant Bhushan and Yogendra Yadav protested against the party&rsquo;s and the government&rsquo;s dubious functioning, they were humiliated and shown the door. The people did not like the AAP&rsquo;s conduct.</p>

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<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The second reason has been an overdose of negative politics the AAP has indulged in. From calling the prime minister a &ldquo;psychopath&rdquo; to making allegedly defamatory statements against senior union ministers, such as Arun Jaitley, Chief Minister Kejriwal set the tone for the kind of politics he believes in. As far as the AAP is concerned, everything negative &mdash; from local to international &mdash; is the prime minister&rsquo;s doing. The voters were not amused.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The voters realised that here was a chief minister and his party which, instead of working alongside the Centre on at least issues that concerned Delhi&rsquo;s betterment, were more intent in burnishing their own combative image. The aggression became all the more distasteful given that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP have been gaining ground across the country since 2014. Kejriwal&rsquo;s insulting barbs against the Congress&rsquo;s Captain Amarinder Singh in Punjab also ruffled voters&rsquo; feathers in that State and gave the latter a great deal of traction.</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>The third is over-confidence, which is a direct offshoot of arrogance. The Delhi victory spurred the AAP into expanding its base without, one, building on the basics; and two, without setting an example of good governance in its flagship state, that is Delhi. Well-wishers of AAP had cautioned the leadership against stretching too far and too fast, but Kejriwal and team, intoxicated by the Delhi success and seduced by dreams of national (even international) prominence, refused to listen. At the end of the day, they are back to square one: Delhi!&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>All is not lost for the party yet. The AAP needs to recalibrate its strategy, own up mistakes, and let go of its misplaced vigour for venomous talk. If it wants to be taken seriously, it must focus on good governance in the state it rules, and it should try to conduct itself with dignity.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>Kejriwal&rsquo;s mentor Anna Hazare has already lost hopes in his student. We&rsquo;ll know soon if the people of Delhi have too.&nbsp;</p>

<p>&nbsp;</p>

<p>(Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are that of the author and not of WION)</p>

<p>&nbsp; &nbsp;</p>


Irregularities, combative image and arrogance are the three factors responsible for AAP's recent election debacles

In an electoral defeat, only half the battle is lost. The other half also goes when a vanquished political party refuses to acknowledge the reasons for the setback and takes refuge in excuses. In doing so, the party nips in the bud chances of an honest appraisal, subsequent corrective measures, and hopes of a comeback. One may wonder: Why would any political organisation want to willingly commit harakiri? It would, if its senior leadership has slipped into a delusional mode. Take the example of the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which appears determined to self-destruct. This may sound like an exaggeration. The AAP is still dominant in the Delhi Assembly, having 66 out of 70 seats and is set to complete its five-year term unless there is a massive split in the party. It has a vast network of workers in the capital-state. It has spread its wings in neighbouring Punjab, has a semblance of an organisation in Goa, and is gearing up to fight the Gujarat Assembly election in the year-end. This should be quite a feat for a barely four-year-old party. Ironically, the initial successes paved the way for the AAP’s subsequent decline, as they made the party leadership over-confident, arrogant and oblivious to the people’s changing mood. For all its grand talk of connecting with the masses, the AAP has never been more disconnected. For all its grand talk of connecting with the masses, the AAP has never been more disconnected. × The Rajouri Garden by-election result in the party’s stronghold of Delhi is a telling instance. Not only did the AAP lose a seat it had held but it also lost its deposit. The Congress, which had been decimated in the 2015 Assembly poll, pushed the ruling party to the third spot; the Bharatiya Janata Party, which had been routed, made a triumphant return by bagging the seat. Delhi Chief Minister and AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal’s reaction demonstrated the party’s unwillingness to see the writing on the wall. He claimed that the people had punished the AAP for having shifted its sitting legislator from Rajouri Garden to contest a seat in Punjab. One is not sure if the voters had perceived the shift as a crime which deserved punishment — but even if they did, was the crime of such a serious nature that the party should have lost its deposit? Kejriwal and his team know the answers lie elsewhere — they are not that dense — but they will not admit. It can be said that one swallow does not make a summer. But Rajouri Garden is not the only setback for the Aam Aadmi Party. It had made a big show of creating a splash in Goa when it decided to contest 39 of the 40 Assembly seats. Its candidates lost deposits in all but one constituency. Senior leaders from Kejriwal down had at various times camped and aggressively campaigned in Goa, hoping to cash in on a divided Congress and a BJP battling against a splinter group of the RSS and its partner, the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party. The AAP may not have hoped to govern Goa, but it had expected better than losing security money all over the state. In Punjab, though, it was confident of forming the government. The situation seemed made-to-order for the AAP: the Shiromani Akali Dal-BJP ruling coalition had fallen into disrepute and the Congress was a tried, tested and rejected option. Besides, all four Lok Sabha members the AAP had, were from Punjab, and they were expected to provide the necessary momentum. There was even talk of Kejriwal shifting to Punjab as the chief minister once his party won the election. But his party was humbled, securing just 20 seats, which were just a few more than the third-placed Akali Dal-BJP’s tally. If the party does not fare well in the coming Municipal Corporation of Delhi elections, Kejriwal and his coterie will not have a fig leaf to hide behind. × With three back-to-back defeats, the AAP is no longer on a sound footing. Rumblings have already begun within the party — a few of AAP's leaders have quit and joined its rivals and more could in the coming months — and the future is suddenly not so bright. If the party does not fare well in the coming Municipal Corporation of Delhi elections, Kejriwal and his coterie will not have a fig leaf to hide behind. The party may have survived the departure of Yogendra Yadav/ Prashant Bhushan-led group which essentially had no mass base, but it’s unlikely to bounce back in time for the 2019 Lok Sabha election and the Delhi Assembly poll a year after that, in case it fails in its bid to gain dominance over the MCD. So, what went wrong for the AAP? Three primary reasons. The first is that the party has forgotten its core, which lies at its origin. It was born out of an anti-corruption/anti-criminalisation of politics movement. But as it settled down into its term after securing a hefty majority, many of its leaders came under the scanner for irregularities and criminal activities. Little action was taken against them. Worse, the government itself took questionable decisions, such as the appointment of parliamentary secretaries. When the likes of Prashant Bhushan and Yogendra Yadav protested against the party’s and the government’s dubious functioning, they were humiliated and shown the door. The people did not like the AAP’s conduct. The voters realised that here was a chief minister and his party which, instead of working alongside the Centre on at least issues that concerned Delhi’s betterment, were more intent in burnishing their own combative image. × The second reason has been an overdose of negative politics the AAP has indulged in. From calling the prime minister a “psychopath” to making allegedly defamatory statements against senior union ministers, such as Arun Jaitley, Chief Minister Kejriwal set the tone for the kind of politics he believes in. As far as the AAP is concerned, everything negative — from local to international — is the prime minister’s doing. The voters were not amused. The voters realised that here was a chief minister and his party which, instead of working alongside the Centre on at least issues that concerned Delhi’s betterment, were more intent in burnishing their own combative image. The aggression became all the more distasteful given that Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP have been gaining ground across the country since 2014. Kejriwal’s insulting barbs against the Congress’s Captain Amarinder Singh in Punjab also ruffled voters’ feathers in that State and gave the latter a great deal of traction. The third is over-confidence, which is a direct offshoot of arrogance. The Delhi victory spurred the AAP into expanding its base without, one, building on the basics; and two, without setting an example of good governance in its flagship state, that is Delhi. Well-wishers of AAP had cautioned the leadership against stretching too far and too fast, but Kejriwal and team, intoxicated by the Delhi success and seduced by dreams of national (even international) prominence, refused to listen. At the end of the day, they are back to square one: Delhi! All is not lost for the party yet. The AAP needs to recalibrate its strategy, own up mistakes, and let go of its misplaced vigour for venomous talk. If it wants to be taken seriously, it must focus on good governance in the state it rules, and it should try to conduct itself with dignity. Kejriwal’s mentor Anna Hazare has already lost hopes in his student. We’ll know soon if the people of Delhi have too. (Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are that of the author and not of WION)

Negative politics cripples Aam Aadmi Party's electoral prospects

Author

Zee News Rajasthan

Editor

Rajesh Singh

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