OPEC+ has decided to increase oil output by 137,000 barrels per day in December 2025, continuing a steady pattern of modest monthly rises after similar increments in October and November. However, the group plans to pause further production hikes during the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal demand weakness and uncertainties surrounding sanctions on Russian producers.


OPEC+ Agrees to Moderate Oil Production Increase, Plans Early 2026 Pause 

China’s state-owned oil giants have suspended purchases of seaborne Russian oil following fresh US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, Moscow’s oil producers, multiple trade sources told Reuters on Thursday.


Breaking: China imports 1.4 million barrels of Russian oil per day

Russia's seaborne crude oil shipments have surged to a 28-month high...
As production ramps up and the ongoing conflict with ukraine continues to disrupt refinery operations.The latest data reveals a notable shift in how russia is exporting its oil. As the war has pushed moscow to divert supplies away from refineries toward export terminals.

Russia's Crude Exports Hit 28-month High 

Nigeria has lost over 600,000 barrels of oil after a three-day nationwide strike over mass layoffs at the Dangote refinery disrupted production, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) has confirmed.

Dangote Refinery Strike Cuts Nigeria Oil Output By 600,000 Barrels

Nigeria Loses 600,000 Barrels Amid Strike, Dangote Refinery Operations Disrupted

Nigeria has lost over 600,000 barrels of oil after a three-day nationwide strike over mass layoffs at the Dangote refinery disrupted production, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) has confirmed.


Nigeria loses 600,000 barrels amid strike, Dangote refinery operations disrupted 

The oil producing group decided on sunday to increase production only modestly in November. That looks like a healthy compomise between the Saudi Arabia's stance for market share and russia's position to make adjustments to the prodiuction. With oil prices near a four-month low before the group's meeting, the decision seems a middling path for a modest increase in output.

Oil Surplus Glut Shows Signs The Market Is Starting To Shift

'Uptober' trading has started with a bang after positive moves across the board last month. Global stocks along with Wall Street shares repeatedly hit fresh record highs despite the vaired risks in September. Cryptos were not left behind, with Bitcoin reversing an early setback to recover and edge towards its record high set in August. On the other hand, safe haven demand pushed gold to become a big winner. October is predicted to be broadly similar, with a few tinkering on the edges in trade moves. 

Global Stocks Hit Fresh Record Highs Despite Risks In September

Several regions in Russia and parts of Ukraine it controls are reporting gasoline shortages after Ukraine stepped up attacks on Russian oil refineries this month, and amid a seasonal surge in fuel demand. Russia imposed a gasoline exports ban for oil producers on July 28 in a bid to prevent shortages at a time of peak demand because of summer travel and grain harvesting. But some market participants said this will not be enough to avert a fuel crunch.

Russia faces fuel crisis: Lost nearly 40% of oil refining capacity

Global stocks are feeling the pressure as president Trump's renewed tariff threats shake investor confidence. With Asian markets dipping, US and European futures pointing to a down open, and gold gaining ground, we dive into what’s driving this market reaction.


Asian Stocks Hit Record Highs Driven By Investor Diversity

U.S. President Donald Trump has stated he is ready to impose major sanctions on Russia only if NATO countries do. Trump claims NATO's Russian oil purchases weaken the alliance’s negotiating power over Moscow.


Russia-Ukraine war: Trump blames Russian oil purchase weakening negotiating power 

OPEC+ is set to approve a faster-than-expected increase in oil production for August, with eight core members of the alliance preparing to raise output by as much as 550,000 barrels per day (bpd)—a sharp uptick from previous monthly hikes of 411,000 bpd. The decision, expected at a virtual meeting on July 5, reflects the group’s continued shift toward regaining market share despite the risk of oversupplying a fragile market. The group, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and Iraq, has been gradually reversing a 2.2 million bpd production cut it began unwinding in April. So far, 1.37 million bpd has been restored, and the planned August hike could complete the process by September, according to sources familiar with the talks.<h2>Strategic shift amid supply glut risks</h2>OPEC+, which pumps nearly half of the world’s oil, has been curtailing output since 2022 to support prices. But in recent months, the group has increased supply to recover sales volumes lost to rivals like US shale producers and to meet rising summer fuel demand. The decision comes even as oil inventories have been building globally, with analysts warning of a supply surplus later in the year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and Wall Street firms like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs forecast crude prices could dip below $60 per barrel by Q4.President Donald Trump has also pressured the group to boost supply, aiming to curb gasoline prices and relieve inflationary pressure as he pushes the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The US, alongside producers in Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, has been increasing output, further intensifying the supply-demand imbalance.Despite the push for more barrels, internal rifts persist within OPEC+. Saudi Arabia has demanded discipline from members like Kazakhstan and Iraq, who have consistently overproduced. The actual supply hitting markets has been lower than announced in previous months, partly due to Riyadh urging lagging countries to withhold their share to offset past breaches.Russia, OPEC’s key ally, also faces pressure to boost revenue amid a deteriorating economy and sanctions fallout from its war in Ukraine. The recent meeting may also touch on September policy, depending on market dynamics and member compliance. As OPEC+ walks a tightrope between stabilising prices and expanding output, all eyes will be on whether the additional barrels cool or further complicate the already volatile oil market.

The OPEC+, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and Iraq, has been gradually reversing a 2.2 million bpd production cut it began unwinding in April.

OPEC+ is set to approve a faster-than-expected increase in oil production for August, with eight core members of the alliance preparing to raise output by as much as 550,000 barrels per day (bpd)—a sharp uptick from previous monthly hikes of 411,000 bpd. The decision, expected at a virtual meeting on July 5, reflects the group’s continued shift toward regaining market share despite the risk of oversupplying a fragile market. The group, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and Iraq, has been gradually reversing a 2.2 million bpd production cut it began unwinding in April. So far, 1.37 million bpd has been restored, and the planned August hike could complete the process by September, according to sources familiar with the talks. Strategic shift amid supply glut risks OPEC+, which pumps nearly half of the world’s oil, has been curtailing output since 2022 to support prices. But in recent months, the group has increased supply to recover sales volumes lost to rivals like US shale producers and to meet rising summer fuel demand. The decision comes even as oil inventories have been building globally, with analysts warning of a supply surplus later in the year. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and Wall Street firms like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs forecast crude prices could dip below $60 per barrel by Q4. President Donald Trump has also pressured the group to boost supply, aiming to curb gasoline prices and relieve inflationary pressure as he pushes the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The US, alongside producers in Canada, Brazil, and Guyana, has been increasing output, further intensifying the supply-demand imbalance. Despite the push for more barrels, internal rifts persist within OPEC+. Saudi Arabia has demanded discipline from members like Kazakhstan and Iraq, who have consistently overproduced. The actual supply hitting markets has been lower than announced in previous months, partly due to Riyadh urging lagging countries to withhold their share to offset past breaches. Russia, OPEC’s key ally, also faces pressure to boost revenue amid a deteriorating economy and sanctions fallout from its war in Ukraine. The recent meeting may also touch on September policy, depending on market dynamics and member compliance. As OPEC+ walks a tightrope between stabilising prices and expanding output, all eyes will be on whether the additional barrels cool or further complicate the already volatile oil market.

The OPEC+, which includes Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, and Iraq, has been gradually reversing a 2.2 million bpd production cut it began unwinding in April.

OPEC+ poised to accelerate oil output hike in August amid market volatility

China’s imports of Iranian crude oil surged to record levels in June, as Tehran boosted shipments ahead of the recent conflict with Israel and Chinese independent refiners rushed to lock in discounted barrels amid tightening global supplies. According to data from ship-tracking firms Vortexa and Kpler, China imported an estimated 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil between June 1 and June 20. By June 27, the rolling average had eased slightly to 1.46 million bpd, still sharply higher than May’s 1 million bpd. The surge followed a spike in Iranian loadings in May, which rose to 1.83 million bpd, the highest level in several years.&nbsp;These volumes were driven by Iran’s effort to expedite exports in anticipation of further escalation in its conflict with Israel and possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the crude was absorbed by China’s so-called “teapot” refineries, smaller independent operators with growing demand and declining inventories ahead of the peak summer consumption season.&nbsp;Iran’s exports peaked at 2.2 million bpd in mid-June but tapered off to 1.5 million bpd in the latter half of the month, following Israeli airstrikes on June 13. Analysts at Petro-Logistics confirmed a notable decline in loadings after the attacks, suggesting short-term supply volatility from OPEC’s third-largest producer could tighten global oil markets.&nbsp;<h2>Sanctions confusion and US signals shift in strategy</h2>&nbsp;The jump in Iranian shipments also coincides with mounting speculation over a potential easing of US sanctions. President Donald Trump, who had reinstated his “maximum pressure” policy earlier this year, said last week, “China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the US, also.” The statement sparked confusion about whether Washington is softening enforcement.&nbsp;While the White House later clarified that sanctions remain in place, Trump’s comments were widely interpreted as an attempt to leverage China’s energy needs into broader trade concessions. Meanwhile, reports indicate the US is offering Iran a potential $30 billion package in nuclear energy development and sanctions relief in exchange for halting uranium enrichment, an offer Tehran has not accepted.&nbsp;<h2>Oil prices retreat as geopolitical premium fades</h2>&nbsp;Amid easing West Asian tensions, an increase in Iranian oil flows and ongoing OPEC+ production hikes, oil prices declined on June 30. Brent crude futures dropped 66 cents, or 0.97 per cent, to $67.11 per barrel ahead of the August contract expiry. The more active September contract slipped to $65.97. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by 94 cents to $64.58 per barrel.&nbsp;Analysts attributed the dip to the market pricing out the geopolitical risk premium that had briefly pushed Brent above $80 during the 12-day Iran-Israel war. A ceasefire announced by Trump helped cool the market, while news that OPEC+ is preparing a fifth consecutive production increase—adding another 411,000 bpd in August—has further weighed on sentiment. Still, oil benchmarks are expected to post their second consecutive monthly gain of over 5 per cent, reflecting lingering tightness in global supply despite the short-term correction.

Teapot refineries in China drive the oil demand as Iran front-loads shipments in June as fear of war loom. Trump’s mixed signals on sanctions stir market confusion.

China’s imports of Iranian crude oil surged to record levels in June, as Tehran boosted shipments ahead of the recent conflict with Israel and Chinese independent refiners rushed to lock in discounted barrels amid tightening global supplies. According to data from ship-tracking firms Vortexa and Kpler, China imported an estimated 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil between June 1 and June 20. By June 27, the rolling average had eased slightly to 1.46 million bpd, still sharply higher than May’s 1 million bpd. The surge followed a spike in Iranian loadings in May, which rose to 1.83 million bpd, the highest level in several years. These volumes were driven by Iran’s effort to expedite exports in anticipation of further escalation in its conflict with Israel and possible disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Most of the crude was absorbed by China’s so-called “teapot” refineries, smaller independent operators with growing demand and declining inventories ahead of the peak summer consumption season. Iran’s exports peaked at 2.2 million bpd in mid-June but tapered off to 1.5 million bpd in the latter half of the month, following Israeli airstrikes on June 13. Analysts at Petro-Logistics confirmed a notable decline in loadings after the attacks, suggesting short-term supply volatility from OPEC’s third-largest producer could tighten global oil markets. Sanctions confusion and US signals shift in strategy The jump in Iranian shipments also coincides with mounting speculation over a potential easing of US sanctions. President Donald Trump, who had reinstated his “maximum pressure” policy earlier this year, said last week, “China can now continue to purchase oil from Iran. Hopefully, they will be purchasing plenty from the US, also.” The statement sparked confusion about whether Washington is softening enforcement. While the White House later clarified that sanctions remain in place, Trump’s comments were widely interpreted as an attempt to leverage China’s energy needs into broader trade concessions. Meanwhile, reports indicate the US is offering Iran a potential $30 billion package in nuclear energy development and sanctions relief in exchange for halting uranium enrichment, an offer Tehran has not accepted. Oil prices retreat as geopolitical premium fades Amid easing West Asian tensions, an increase in Iranian oil flows and ongoing OPEC+ production hikes, oil prices declined on June 30. Brent crude futures dropped 66 cents, or 0.97 per cent, to $67.11 per barrel ahead of the August contract expiry. The more active September contract slipped to $65.97. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell by 94 cents to $64.58 per barrel. Analysts attributed the dip to the market pricing out the geopolitical risk premium that had briefly pushed Brent above $80 during the 12-day Iran-Israel war. A ceasefire announced by Trump helped cool the market, while news that OPEC+ is preparing a fifth consecutive production increase—adding another 411,000 bpd in August—has further weighed on sentiment. Still, oil benchmarks are expected to post their second consecutive monthly gain of over 5 per cent, reflecting lingering tightness in global supply despite the short-term correction.

Teapot refineries in China drive the oil demand as Iran front-loads shipments in June as fear of war loom. Trump’s mixed signals on sanctions stir market confusion.

China's Iranian oil imports hit record high amid signs of sanctions shift

Oil prices inched higher on June 25 after two days of sharp declines, as markets assessed the durability of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel and the broader implications for global crude supply. Brent crude futures rose by 75 cents, or 1.1 per cent, to $67.89 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 71 cents, or 1.1 per cent, to $65.08. The fragile truce between Iran and Israel, brokered by US President Donald Trump, brought a temporary pause to hostilities following nearly two weeks of conflict that had briefly spiked oil prices to five-month highs.&nbsp;The uptick follows a steep fall earlier in the week, when Brent settled at its lowest level since June 10 and WTI since June 5—dates that predated Israel’s surprise attack on Iran on June 13. Oil markets had surged briefly after the US joined the conflict with targeted strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran over the weekend. However, investor fears of a wider supply disruption quickly eased after the announcement of a ceasefire.<h2>Oil outlook hangs on the thread of hope</h2>Though the US strikes were intended to curb Iran’s nuclear capabilities, a preliminary intelligence assessment suggested the facilities would only be set back by a few months. Still, both Tehran and Tel Aviv have since signalled a halt to direct air assaults, raising hopes for a period of calm.Despite this, tensions remain high in the region. Violations of the ceasefire have been reported, prompting the White House to issue renewed calls for restraint. Of particular concern to investors is the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which nearly 20 per cent of global crude and fuel flows. Any disruption there could have major implications for global energy security.India, which relies on imports for over 85 per cent of its crude requirements—36 per cent of which passes through the Strait—welcomed the de-escalation. The Ministry of External Affairs called for diplomacy and dialogue, offering to support efforts to ensure lasting peace.Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on June 24 showed that US inventories shrank nearly 4.3 million barrels in the previous week (ended June 20), beating the expectations for a draw of 0.6 million barrels. Outsized draws in US inventories helped spur some confidence in fuel demand, which was seen picking up sharply with the summer season.This follows a 10.1 million barrel draw from the week before, pointing to quickly tightening US oil stockpiles. The API data usually heralds a similar trend from official inventory data, which is due later on today (June 25).

The fragile truce between Iran and Israel, brokered by US President Donald Trump, brought a temporary pause to hostilities following nearly two weeks of conflict that had briefly spiked oil prices to five-month highs.

Oil prices inched higher on June 25 after two days of sharp declines, as markets assessed the durability of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel and the broader implications for global crude supply. Brent crude futures rose by 75 cents, or 1.1 per cent, to $67.89 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 71 cents, or 1.1 per cent, to $65.08. The fragile truce between Iran and Israel, brokered by US President Donald Trump, brought a temporary pause to hostilities following nearly two weeks of conflict that had briefly spiked oil prices to five-month highs. The uptick follows a steep fall earlier in the week, when Brent settled at its lowest level since June 10 and WTI since June 5—dates that predated Israel’s surprise attack on Iran on June 13. Oil markets had surged briefly after the US joined the conflict with targeted strikes on three nuclear facilities in Iran over the weekend. However, investor fears of a wider supply disruption quickly eased after the announcement of a ceasefire. Oil outlook hangs on the thread of hope Though the US strikes were intended to curb Iran’s nuclear capabilities, a preliminary intelligence assessment suggested the facilities would only be set back by a few months. Still, both Tehran and Tel Aviv have since signalled a halt to direct air assaults, raising hopes for a period of calm. Despite this, tensions remain high in the region. Violations of the ceasefire have been reported, prompting the White House to issue renewed calls for restraint. Of particular concern to investors is the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which nearly 20 per cent of global crude and fuel flows. Any disruption there could have major implications for global energy security. India, which relies on imports for over 85 per cent of its crude requirements—36 per cent of which passes through the Strait—welcomed the de-escalation. The Ministry of External Affairs called for diplomacy and dialogue, offering to support efforts to ensure lasting peace. Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) on June 24 showed that US inventories shrank nearly 4.3 million barrels in the previous week (ended June 20), beating the expectations for a draw of 0.6 million barrels. Outsized draws in US inventories helped spur some confidence in fuel demand, which was seen picking up sharply with the summer season. This follows a 10.1 million barrel draw from the week before, pointing to quickly tightening US oil stockpiles. The API data usually heralds a similar trend from official inventory data, which is due later on today (June 25).

The fragile truce between Iran and Israel, brokered by US President Donald Trump, brought a temporary pause to hostilities following nearly two weeks of conflict that had briefly spiked oil prices to five-month highs.

Oil prices rebound slightly as markets eye fragile Iran-Israel ceasefire

Oil prices surged on June 23, marking their highest levels since January, as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran sparked fears of significant disruptions to global oil supply.&nbsp;The price of Brent crude futures rose by $1.92, or 2.49 per cent, to $78.93 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced by $1.89, or 2.56 per cent, to $75.73 per barrel. The surge followed airstrikes over the weekend by the US on three of Iran's main nuclear sites, raising alarm over the potential for retaliatory actions from Tehran.The military strikes, which targeted key facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, marked a significant escalation in the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, with the US joining Israel in its offensive against Iran’s nuclear capabilities.&nbsp;As a result, oil traders responded to the uncertainty in West Asia by pushing prices to new highs, briefly touching $81.40 per barrel for Brent and $78.40 for WTI, before some of the gains were pared back.The primary concern for oil markets is the potential for Iran to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about a fifth of the global oil supply passes. Iran’s parliament has already approved a measure to close the waterway, but the final decision rests with the country’s National Security Council.&nbsp;The closure of the strait could have a profound impact on global oil flows, leading to a sharp increase in prices. Analysts warned that if Iran takes such an action, it could drive Brent crude to $100 per barrel, exacerbating inflationary pressures worldwide.West Asia, home to one-third of global oil production, remains a major focal point for oil price volatility. With both Iran and Saudi Arabia among the world’s largest oil exporters, any escalation in hostilities could trigger significant disruptions to oil infrastructure in the region.&nbsp;Furthermore, the US response to any Iranian retaliation remains unclear, with Trump administration officials suggesting that further military action could be forthcoming should Iran strike back.Despite the recent price increases, analysts caution that oil markets are still vulnerable to the risk of supply disruptions and geopolitical developments.&nbsp;Goldman Sachs has warned that the geopolitical risk premium currently priced into oil futures may not last unless there is a tangible disruption to supply. If tensions ease and oil flows remain uninterrupted, prices could stabilise or even decline, as OPEC+ nations have ramped up production in recent months to meet global demand. However, with the situation in West Asia continuing to evolve, the outlook remains uncertain.<h2>Impact on global economy and energy markets</h2>The surging oil prices have raised concerns about the broader economic implications, especially for countries heavily reliant on oil imports. Nations like India, which imports a significant portion of its crude oil, are particularly vulnerable to rising prices.&nbsp;Analysts suggest that even a modest increase in oil prices could strain India’s economy by raising inflation and increasing the cost of essential goods, such as transportation and manufacturing inputs.The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran also have broader implications for global energy markets. In addition to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran may choose to target other oil infrastructure in the region, or even its export terminals, which could exacerbate the supply shock.&nbsp;However, it is also possible that the conflict could de-escalate, as has occurred in the past, and the global oil supply could return to normal, leading to a reduction in prices.Despite the uncertainties, oil markets have been on a steady upward trajectory since early June, with Brent crude prices climbing by 13 per cent since the conflict began. The volatility seen in recent weeks is expected to continue as traders monitor developments in West Asia closely.&nbsp;The meeting of OPEC+ members on July 5 will be a key event to watch, as decisions on further production increases may influence the market’s ability to manage supply and demand amidst growing geopolitical risks.As the situation unfolds, the oil market remains in flux, and both producers and consumers will be closely watching for signs of further escalation or potential de-escalation in the region.

Oil traders responded to the uncertainty in West Asia by pushing prices to new highs, briefly touching $81.40 per barrel for Brent and $78.40 for WTI, before some of the gains were pared back.

Oil prices surged on June 23, marking their highest levels since January, as escalating tensions between the United States and Iran sparked fears of significant disruptions to global oil supply. The price of Brent crude futures rose by $1.92, or 2.49 per cent, to $78.93 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced by $1.89, or 2.56 per cent, to $75.73 per barrel. The surge followed airstrikes over the weekend by the US on three of Iran's main nuclear sites, raising alarm over the potential for retaliatory actions from Tehran. The military strikes, which targeted key facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, marked a significant escalation in the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, with the US joining Israel in its offensive against Iran’s nuclear capabilities. As a result, oil traders responded to the uncertainty in West Asia by pushing prices to new highs, briefly touching $81.40 per barrel for Brent and $78.40 for WTI, before some of the gains were pared back. The primary concern for oil markets is the potential for Iran to retaliate by closing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which about a fifth of the global oil supply passes. Iran’s parliament has already approved a measure to close the waterway, but the final decision rests with the country’s National Security Council. The closure of the strait could have a profound impact on global oil flows, leading to a sharp increase in prices. Analysts warned that if Iran takes such an action, it could drive Brent crude to $100 per barrel, exacerbating inflationary pressures worldwide. West Asia, home to one-third of global oil production, remains a major focal point for oil price volatility. With both Iran and Saudi Arabia among the world’s largest oil exporters, any escalation in hostilities could trigger significant disruptions to oil infrastructure in the region. Furthermore, the US response to any Iranian retaliation remains unclear, with Trump administration officials suggesting that further military action could be forthcoming should Iran strike back. Despite the recent price increases, analysts caution that oil markets are still vulnerable to the risk of supply disruptions and geopolitical developments. Goldman Sachs has warned that the geopolitical risk premium currently priced into oil futures may not last unless there is a tangible disruption to supply. If tensions ease and oil flows remain uninterrupted, prices could stabilise or even decline, as OPEC+ nations have ramped up production in recent months to meet global demand. However, with the situation in West Asia continuing to evolve, the outlook remains uncertain. Impact on global economy and energy markets The surging oil prices have raised concerns about the broader economic implications, especially for countries heavily reliant on oil imports. Nations like India, which imports a significant portion of its crude oil, are particularly vulnerable to rising prices. Analysts suggest that even a modest increase in oil prices could strain India’s economy by raising inflation and increasing the cost of essential goods, such as transportation and manufacturing inputs. The ongoing tensions between the US and Iran also have broader implications for global energy markets. In addition to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran may choose to target other oil infrastructure in the region, or even its export terminals, which could exacerbate the supply shock. However, it is also possible that the conflict could de-escalate, as has occurred in the past, and the global oil supply could return to normal, leading to a reduction in prices. Despite the uncertainties, oil markets have been on a steady upward trajectory since early June, with Brent crude prices climbing by 13 per cent since the conflict began. The volatility seen in recent weeks is expected to continue as traders monitor developments in West Asia closely. The meeting of OPEC+ members on July 5 will be a key event to watch, as decisions on further production increases may influence the market’s ability to manage supply and demand amidst growing geopolitical risks. As the situation unfolds, the oil market remains in flux, and both producers and consumers will be closely watching for signs of further escalation or potential de-escalation in the region.

Oil traders responded to the uncertainty in West Asia by pushing prices to new highs, briefly touching $81.40 per barrel for Brent and $78.40 for WTI, before some of the gains were pared back.

Brent crude hits five-month high amid US-Iran tensions, risks of supply disruptions loom

The global oil market is entering a new phase of structural change as oil production capacity is expected to far outpace demand growth through the end of the decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil 2025 medium-term outlook released on June 17.&nbsp;The report warns, however, that mounting geopolitical risks, notably the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, continue to pose a threat to supply security despite strong fundamentals.According to the IEA, global oil production capacity is forecast to grow by over 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2030, reaching 114.7 mb/d. Meanwhile, demand is expected to rise by just 2.5 mb/d from 2024 levels, plateauing around 105.5 mb/d by the decade’s end.&nbsp;This growing surplus signals a potentially well-supplied market over the next five years, barring any major disruptions.The agency attributed this supply growth to robust output from non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the “Americas Quintet”, the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina.&nbsp;These nations are forecast to more than cover the projected increase in demand, even as the OPEC+ alliance gradually unwinds voluntary production cuts.“From 2015 to 2024, the US accounted for 90 per cent of global supply growth. That pace is slowing, but it still remains the largest contributor to non-OPEC+ output,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. He added that oil markets remain structurally sound but vulnerable to geopolitical shocks.<h2>China and US no longer primary demand-supply anchors</h2>The report marks a significant turning point in global oil market dynamics. For over a decade, China and the US were the dual engines of oil demand and supply, respectively.&nbsp;Chinese demand alone accounted for 60 per cent of global consumption growth over the past 10 years, while US shale production drove the majority of new supply.However, that era may be ending. Chinese oil consumption is expected to peak by 2027 as electric vehicle (EV) sales soar, high-speed rail networks expand, and more trucks switch to natural gas. EV sales hit a record 17 million in 2024 and are projected to exceed 20 million in 2025, displacing an estimated 5.4 mb/d of oil demand globally by 2030.Meanwhile, US oil output growth is slowing as shale producers reduce capital spending and prioritise returns over expansion. Despite this, the US remains the single largest contributor to non-OPEC supply growth through the decade.<h2>Asia will drive future demand, led by India</h2>While demand in advanced economies is expected to contract, Asia, particularly India, is set to lead the next wave of oil consumption growth. India alone is forecast to add 1 mb/d in new demand by 2030, making it the single largest contributor among individual countries.“Asia dominates growth,” the report notes, citing continued industrialisation and rising transportation fuel needs across South and Southeast Asia. This shift underscores a broader rebalancing in global energy consumption patterns.The petrochemical sector is also set to become the dominant source of oil demand growth from 2026 onwards. By 2030, the industry is expected to consume one in every six barrels of oil, primarily in the form of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and other non-crude inputs.<h2>Geopolitical risks cast a shadow</h2>Despite the projected supply surplus, recent geopolitical events have raised alarms over potential disruptions. On June 13, Israel launched air strikes on Iranian military and energy facilities, prompting retaliatory attacks.&nbsp;Though there has been no immediate impact on Iranian oil exports, currently around 2.6 mb/d, fears of a wider conflict and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude futures to a six-month high of $74 per barrel.Iran also reported production cuts at the South Pars gas field due to fire damage, while Israel halted over 60 per cent of its natural gas output amid security concerns. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, with 25 per cent of the world’s oil supply passing through the narrow waterway.“While fundamentals point to a well-supplied market, these recent developments are a stark reminder of the ongoing geopolitical fragility in oil markets,” Birol warned.<h2>Refining and inventory trends</h2>With oil demand for combustion fuels nearing a peak, global refining capacity is projected to exceed demand for refined products by 2030. This imbalance may lead to more refinery closures, especially in mature markets. Refinery throughput is forecast to rise modestly by around 460 kb/d annually in 2025 and 2026, reaching 83.7 mb/d.Oil inventories have been rising steadily, with global stocks surging by 93 million barrels in May alone. Despite this, OECD inventories remain 97 million barrels below 2024 levels, reflecting ongoing volatility in market sentiment.In the absence of major disruptions, the IEA projects a stable, oversupplied oil market through 2030. Yet, the shadow of geopolitical conflict and the energy transition underscores a fragile balance. As Birol concluded, “There is no room for complacency when it comes to energy security.”

The report warns, however, that mounting geopolitical risks, notably the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, continue to pose a threat to supply security despite strong fundamentals.

The global oil market is entering a new phase of structural change as oil production capacity is expected to far outpace demand growth through the end of the decade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its Oil 2025 medium-term outlook released on June 17. The report warns, however, that mounting geopolitical risks, notably the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, continue to pose a threat to supply security despite strong fundamentals. According to the IEA, global oil production capacity is forecast to grow by over 5 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2030, reaching 114.7 mb/d. Meanwhile, demand is expected to rise by just 2.5 mb/d from 2024 levels, plateauing around 105.5 mb/d by the decade’s end. This growing surplus signals a potentially well-supplied market over the next five years, barring any major disruptions. The agency attributed this supply growth to robust output from non-OPEC+ countries, particularly the “Americas Quintet”, the United States, Canada, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina. These nations are forecast to more than cover the projected increase in demand, even as the OPEC+ alliance gradually unwinds voluntary production cuts. “From 2015 to 2024, the US accounted for 90 per cent of global supply growth. That pace is slowing, but it still remains the largest contributor to non-OPEC+ output,” IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said. He added that oil markets remain structurally sound but vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. China and US no longer primary demand-supply anchors The report marks a significant turning point in global oil market dynamics. For over a decade, China and the US were the dual engines of oil demand and supply, respectively. Chinese demand alone accounted for 60 per cent of global consumption growth over the past 10 years, while US shale production drove the majority of new supply. However, that era may be ending. Chinese oil consumption is expected to peak by 2027 as electric vehicle (EV) sales soar, high-speed rail networks expand, and more trucks switch to natural gas. EV sales hit a record 17 million in 2024 and are projected to exceed 20 million in 2025, displacing an estimated 5.4 mb/d of oil demand globally by 2030. Meanwhile, US oil output growth is slowing as shale producers reduce capital spending and prioritise returns over expansion. Despite this, the US remains the single largest contributor to non-OPEC supply growth through the decade. Asia will drive future demand, led by India While demand in advanced economies is expected to contract, Asia, particularly India, is set to lead the next wave of oil consumption growth. India alone is forecast to add 1 mb/d in new demand by 2030, making it the single largest contributor among individual countries. “Asia dominates growth,” the report notes, citing continued industrialisation and rising transportation fuel needs across South and Southeast Asia. This shift underscores a broader rebalancing in global energy consumption patterns. The petrochemical sector is also set to become the dominant source of oil demand growth from 2026 onwards. By 2030, the industry is expected to consume one in every six barrels of oil, primarily in the form of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and other non-crude inputs. Geopolitical risks cast a shadow Despite the projected supply surplus, recent geopolitical events have raised alarms over potential disruptions. On June 13, Israel launched air strikes on Iranian military and energy facilities, prompting retaliatory attacks. Though there has been no immediate impact on Iranian oil exports, currently around 2.6 mb/d, fears of a wider conflict and a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent crude futures to a six-month high of $74 per barrel. Iran also reported production cuts at the South Pars gas field due to fire damage, while Israel halted over 60 per cent of its natural gas output amid security concerns. The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, with 25 per cent of the world’s oil supply passing through the narrow waterway. “While fundamentals point to a well-supplied market, these recent developments are a stark reminder of the ongoing geopolitical fragility in oil markets,” Birol warned. Refining and inventory trends With oil demand for combustion fuels nearing a peak, global refining capacity is projected to exceed demand for refined products by 2030. This imbalance may lead to more refinery closures, especially in mature markets. Refinery throughput is forecast to rise modestly by around 460 kb/d annually in 2025 and 2026, reaching 83.7 mb/d. Oil inventories have been rising steadily, with global stocks surging by 93 million barrels in May alone. Despite this, OECD inventories remain 97 million barrels below 2024 levels, reflecting ongoing volatility in market sentiment. In the absence of major disruptions, the IEA projects a stable, oversupplied oil market through 2030. Yet, the shadow of geopolitical conflict and the energy transition underscores a fragile balance. As Birol concluded, “There is no room for complacency when it comes to energy security.”

The report warns, however, that mounting geopolitical risks, notably the intensifying Israel-Iran conflict, continue to pose a threat to supply security despite strong fundamentals.

Oil market set for oversupply through 2030, says IEA amid geopolitical tensions

Global financial markets and energy supply chains have been rattled by a sudden escalation in Central Asia tensions, as Israel launched strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, triggering retaliatory drone attacks from Tehran.&nbsp;The recent fallout has revived fears of a global inflation wave, with oil prices surging and trade disruptions looming.The price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged as much as 13 per cent on June 13, the steepest single-day jump since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.&nbsp;Though prices eased slightly by market close, Brent still ended the day over 7 per cent higher, trading at $74.23 a barrel. Analysts warn the rally may be just the beginning if the conflict widens or if key oil infrastructure is hit.Energy traders are closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow but vital waterway through which 20–25 per cent of global oil supply and much of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass.&nbsp;While shipping continues through the strait for now, the growing conflict has increased the risk of disruption. Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumps roughly three million barrels of oil per day—approximately 3 per cent of global output—and has in the past threatened to close the Strait in response to Western actions.“If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, even temporarily, we’re looking at the biggest oil shock of all time,” Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, told Al Jazeera.&nbsp;The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said it stands ready to release the 1.2 billion barrels of emergency reserves to stabilise supply. But OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais criticised the statement, warning that it could trigger unnecessary panic.<h2>IMF, Analysts warn of ripple effects</h2>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that a 10 per cent rise in oil prices could increase global inflation by 0.4 percentage points and reduce global GDP growth by 0.15 percentage points.&nbsp;Traders are now pricing in a potential $20-40 spike in oil prices if the conflict escalates, particularly if Iran targets production facilities in Iraq or disrupts shipping lanes.For countries like India, which imports over 80 per cent of its crude oil needs, the stakes are especially high. A rise in oil prices directly feeds into higher fuel, transport, and manufacturing costs, raising inflation and weakening the rupee. This could widen India’s current account deficit and dampen foreign investment sentiment.<h2>Markets slide, safe havens surge</h2>Global equities reacted sharply to the news. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.9 per cent, the UK’s FTSE 100 closed 0.39 per cent lower, and US stocks tumbled—with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.79 per cent and the S&amp;P 500 down 0.69 per cent.&nbsp;Meanwhile, gold surged 1.2 per cent to $3,423.30 an ounce, its highest level in two months, as investors sought refuge in traditional safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc.Analysts have warned that if Iranian production is disrupted, oil could reach $100 per barrel. However, they noted that such a spike may encourage other producers to ramp up supply, limiting the long-term inflationary impact.Some airlines have suspended flights to Tel Aviv and Tehran, while merchant ships are proceeding with caution through the Strait of Hormuz. Countries like Greece and the UK have issued advisories for vessels to avoid high-risk waters, including the Gulf of Aden.With geopolitical tensions escalating and oil markets on edge, the world may be entering a new phase of energy insecurity and economic fragility—one where supply shocks, inflation risks, and geopolitical brinkmanship are closely intertwined.

The price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged as much as 13 per cent on June 13, the steepest single-day jump since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. 

Global financial markets and energy supply chains have been rattled by a sudden escalation in Central Asia tensions, as Israel launched strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites, triggering retaliatory drone attacks from Tehran. The recent fallout has revived fears of a global inflation wave, with oil prices surging and trade disruptions looming. The price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged as much as 13 per cent on June 13, the steepest single-day jump since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Though prices eased slightly by market close, Brent still ended the day over 7 per cent higher, trading at $74.23 a barrel. Analysts warn the rally may be just the beginning if the conflict widens or if key oil infrastructure is hit. Energy traders are closely monitoring the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow but vital waterway through which 20–25 per cent of global oil supply and much of Qatar’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) pass. While shipping continues through the strait for now, the growing conflict has increased the risk of disruption. Iran, OPEC’s third-largest producer, pumps roughly three million barrels of oil per day—approximately 3 per cent of global output—and has in the past threatened to close the Strait in response to Western actions. “If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, even temporarily, we’re looking at the biggest oil shock of all time,” Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, told Al Jazeera. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said it stands ready to release the 1.2 billion barrels of emergency reserves to stabilise supply. But OPEC Secretary-General Haitham al-Ghais criticised the statement, warning that it could trigger unnecessary panic. IMF, Analysts warn of ripple effects The International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates that a 10 per cent rise in oil prices could increase global inflation by 0.4 percentage points and reduce global GDP growth by 0.15 percentage points. Traders are now pricing in a potential $20-40 spike in oil prices if the conflict escalates, particularly if Iran targets production facilities in Iraq or disrupts shipping lanes. For countries like India, which imports over 80 per cent of its crude oil needs, the stakes are especially high. A rise in oil prices directly feeds into higher fuel, transport, and manufacturing costs, raising inflation and weakening the rupee. This could widen India’s current account deficit and dampen foreign investment sentiment. Markets slide, safe havens surge Global equities reacted sharply to the news. Japan’s Nikkei fell 0.9 per cent, the UK’s FTSE 100 closed 0.39 per cent lower, and US stocks tumbled—with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 1.79 per cent and the S&P 500 down 0.69 per cent. Meanwhile, gold surged 1.2 per cent to $3,423.30 an ounce, its highest level in two months, as investors sought refuge in traditional safe havens like gold and the Swiss franc. Analysts have warned that if Iranian production is disrupted, oil could reach $100 per barrel. However, they noted that such a spike may encourage other producers to ramp up supply, limiting the long-term inflationary impact. Some airlines have suspended flights to Tel Aviv and Tehran, while merchant ships are proceeding with caution through the Strait of Hormuz. Countries like Greece and the UK have issued advisories for vessels to avoid high-risk waters, including the Gulf of Aden. With geopolitical tensions escalating and oil markets on edge, the world may be entering a new phase of energy insecurity and economic fragility—one where supply shocks, inflation risks, and geopolitical brinkmanship are closely intertwined.

The price of the global oil benchmark, Brent crude, surged as much as 13 per cent on June 13, the steepest single-day jump since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.&nbsp;

Israel-Iran escalating tensions spark global oil shock, raise fears of fresh inflation wave

Since the morning hours of Sunday, 25th May, when the Liberian-flagged cargo vessel MSC ELSA3 sank off the Kerala coast, Indian Coast Guard (ICG) assets have been combating the resultant oil spill and marine pollution. Oil spills are major maritime disasters that have the potential to cause serious damage to the economy and biodiversity of the affected region. Notably, the Kerala coast, which is at direct risk from this marine accident is rich in marine life and is a popular tourist hub.&nbsp;According to the ICG, within 2-3 hours of the cargo vessel’s sinking, their surveillance aircraft detected the presence of an oil slick at the site.Following which, ICG ship Saksham, already on standby in Pollution Response (PR) configuration, was immediately deployed to begin counter-pollution operations. In parallel, a Dornier aircraft was launched for aerial assessment and the dispersal of Oil Spill Dispersant (OSD) across a wide area.&nbsp;As of 11 am Sunday, the oil slick was observed drifting in an east-southeast direction at an estimated speed of 3.6 kmph. The prevailing active Southwest monsoon, with rough seas and strong winds, presented challenging conditions for responders.&nbsp;Despite the adverse conditions, ICG personnel continued their operations with resilience, navigating dangerous waters littered with floating containers and ensuring safe diversion of all merchant traffic away from the affected zone. By 2 pm Sunday, the spill was assessed to have spread over an area of approximately two square kilometres.&nbsp;&nbsp;Further, more than 100 containers were observed floating near the site, with some breaking apart and their contents scattered in adjacent waters. Mariners have been issued advisories to maintain a sharp lookout and exercise caution, as metallic shipping containers coming in contact with a vessel’s propeller or other systems could cause serious damage.&nbsp;ICG continues intensive surveillance and spill mitigation through air operations and deployment of Oil Spill Dispersant Chemicals using specialised equipment. Two ICG Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs) remain on-site for ongoing monitoring, assessment, and pollution response. In addition, the ICG has mobilised ICG Ship Samudra Prahari, a specialised Pollution Response Vessel carrying significant quantities of Oil dispersing chemicals, along with additional OPVs in Pollution Response configuration.&nbsp;On Sunday, a coordination meeting was convened by the Directorate General of Shipping, bringing together key stakeholders including ICG, vessel owners, managers, Kerala state authorities, and others to implement an integrated response strategy. Ship managing firm MSC has appointed T&amp;T Salvage for cleanup and recovery operations, including container and cargo retrieval and oil removal from the wreck.As per directives under the Merchant Shipping Act, 1958, the Mercantile Marine Department (MMD), Kochi, has issued a warning to the sunken vessel’s owners regarding pollution liability. The ICG has also advised the state administration to prepare for shoreline cleanup operations and to caution local communities against handling any debris or cargo that may wash ashore.

As of 11 am Sunday, the oil slick was observed drifting in an east-southeast direction at an estimated speed of 3.6 kmph. The prevailing active Southwest monsoon, with rough seas and strong winds, presented challenging conditions for responders.

Since the morning hours of Sunday, 25th May, when the Liberian-flagged cargo vessel MSC ELSA3 sank off the Kerala coast, Indian Coast Guard (ICG) assets have been combating the resultant oil spill and marine pollution. Oil spills are major maritime disasters that have the potential to cause serious damage to the economy and biodiversity of the affected region. Notably, the Kerala coast, which is at direct risk from this marine accident is rich in marine life and is a popular tourist hub. According to the ICG, within 2-3 hours of the cargo vessel’s sinking, their surveillance aircraft detected the presence of an oil slick at the site. Following which, ICG ship Saksham, already on standby in Pollution Response (PR) configuration, was immediately deployed to begin counter-pollution operations. In parallel, a Dornier aircraft was launched for aerial assessment and the dispersal of Oil Spill Dispersant (OSD) across a wide area. As of 11 am Sunday, the oil slick was observed drifting in an east-southeast direction at an estimated speed of 3.6 kmph. The prevailing active Southwest monsoon, with rough seas and strong winds, presented challenging conditions for responders. Despite the adverse conditions, ICG personnel continued their operations with resilience, navigating dangerous waters littered with floating containers and ensuring safe diversion of all merchant traffic away from the affected zone. By 2 pm Sunday, the spill was assessed to have spread over an area of approximately two square kilometres. Further, more than 100 containers were observed floating near the site, with some breaking apart and their contents scattered in adjacent waters. Mariners have been issued advisories to maintain a sharp lookout and exercise caution, as metallic shipping containers coming in contact with a vessel’s propeller or other systems could cause serious damage. ICG continues intensive surveillance and spill mitigation through air operations and deployment of Oil Spill Dispersant Chemicals using specialised equipment. Two ICG Offshore Patrol Vessels (OPVs) remain on-site for ongoing monitoring, assessment, and pollution response. In addition, the ICG has mobilised ICG Ship Samudra Prahari, a specialised Pollution Response Vessel carrying significant quantities of Oil dispersing chemicals, along with additional OPVs in Pollution Response configuration. On Sunday, a coordination meeting was convened by the Directorate General of Shipping, bringing together key stakeholders including ICG, vessel owners, managers, Kerala state authorities, and others to implement an integrated response strategy. Ship managing firm MSC has appointed T&T Salvage for cleanup and recovery operations, including container and cargo retrieval and oil removal from the wreck. As per directives under the Merchant Shipping Act, 1958, the Mercantile Marine Department (MMD), Kochi, has issued a warning to the sunken vessel’s owners regarding pollution liability. The ICG has also advised the state administration to prepare for shoreline cleanup operations and to caution local communities against handling any debris or cargo that may wash ashore.

As of 11 am Sunday, the oil slick was observed drifting in an east-southeast direction at an estimated speed of 3.6 kmph. The prevailing active Southwest monsoon, with rough seas and strong winds, presented challenging conditions for responders.

Here’s how Indian Coast Guard is cleaning up oil spill off Kerala

India is set to surpass China as the primary driver of global oil demand growth over the next decade, according to a new report by Moody’s Ratings. The shift comes as China approaches peak crude consumption, driven by slower economic growth and accelerated adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs), while India continues to experience robust energy demand growth supported by economic expansion and infrastructure development.Moody’s projects India’s crude oil consumption to grow annually at 3-5 per cent over the next 3-5 years, compared to China’s marginal growth during the same period. China’s oil demand is expected to peak at around 800 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2030, while India’s demand trajectory remains upward, underscoring a significant transformation in global energy dynamics.&nbsp;What is fuelling India’s demand?&nbsp;India, currently the world’s third-largest oil consumer behind the United States and China, is planning a major expansion of its refining capacity to meet rising domestic fuel demand. Refining capacity is projected to increase by 20 per cent to 309.5 mtpa by 2030 from 256.8 mtpa as of April 2024, driven by investments from state-owned oil marketing companies such as Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd.Rising industrialisation, rapid urbanisation, and massive government-led infrastructure investments are expected to boost transportation fuel demand, particularly for petrol and diesel. At the same time, demand for petrochemical products will also rise in tandem with broader economic development.In contrast, China’s refining capacity is nearing a state-imposed cap of 1 billion tonnes, curbing further growth potential. With the country’s pivot toward cleaner energy sources, including solar, wind, and electric vehicles, consumption of traditional fuels like gasoline and diesel is set to decline, although demand for jet fuel and naphtha may still grow due to rising air travel and chemical production.&nbsp;India’s import dependence to rise&nbsp;Despite its growing consumption, India’s domestic oil and gas production remains a weak link. Moody’s warns that if India cannot reverse its declining output from ageing oil fields and limited exploration investment, its reliance on imports will rise further. Currently, India imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude oil and around 50 per cent of its natural gas requirements, raising concerns about long-term energy security.In contrast, China, which imports over 70 per cent of its crude and 35–40 per cent of its gas needs, is actively working to reduce import dependency through heavy investment in domestic shale gas and offshore exploration projects. As a result, Chinese national oil companies (NOCs) are expected to outperform their Indian peers in production growth over the next 3-5 years.Chinese NOCs also benefit from greater vertical integration, which Moody’s says reduces earnings volatility, along with stronger financial metrics such as lower leverage and higher interest coverage. In India, weaker integration, ageing infrastructure, and policy-related earnings swings have made national firms more vulnerable.&nbsp;Green energy transition&nbsp;Moody’s report highlights a significant policy divergence between the two Asian giants. China’s energy policies are more market-oriented and focused on enhancing self-sufficiency, while India’s regulatory framework still heavily influences fuel prices, often leading to volatile earnings for Indian NOCs.Additionally, India relies more on taxes and dividends from its petroleum sector to fund its fiscal deficit, increasing political sensitivity around fuel prices.Environmental policies are also advancing at different speeds. Chinese NOCs are under greater regulatory pressure to transition to greener practices, while India’s carbon regulations are still evolving. This means Indian firms currently face less immediate pressure to invest in low-carbon technologies, though such pressures are likely to grow in the coming years as global climate commitments intensify.Meanwhile, India is pushing to increase the share of natural gas in its energy mix from 6 to 15 per cent by 2030. Gas is seen as a critical transition fuel, particularly for sectors like fertilisers and petrochemicals, and for urban energy use via piped and compressed natural gas.Gas demand in India is expected to grow by 4-7 per cent annually through the decade, outpacing China’s gas demand growth rate. However, challenges remain in improving domestic gas infrastructure and maintaining affordability, especially against the backdrop of rapidly falling renewable energy prices.As China transitions toward a lower-carbon, more self-sufficient energy economy, India’s growing appetite for oil and gas places it at the centre of global energy markets. However, India’s growing dependence on imports and lag in domestic production pose risks to its energy security and economic stability.While India is set to be the engine of global oil demand growth, its long-term sustainability will depend on policy reforms, infrastructure development, and investments in domestic exploration and green energy.According to Moody’s, the ability of Indian NOCs to execute production plans and manage volatility will be crucial in determining the country’s success in navigating the next decade of energy transition.

The shift comes as China approaches peak crude consumption, driven by slower economic growth and accelerated adoption of new energy vehicles, while India continues to experience robust energy demand growth supported by economic expansion and infrastructure development.

India is set to surpass China as the primary driver of global oil demand growth over the next decade, according to a new report by Moody’s Ratings. The shift comes as China approaches peak crude consumption, driven by slower economic growth and accelerated adoption of new energy vehicles (NEVs), while India continues to experience robust energy demand growth supported by economic expansion and infrastructure development. Moody’s projects India’s crude oil consumption to grow annually at 3-5 per cent over the next 3-5 years, compared to China’s marginal growth during the same period. China’s oil demand is expected to peak at around 800 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) by 2030, while India’s demand trajectory remains upward, underscoring a significant transformation in global energy dynamics. What is fuelling India’s demand? India, currently the world’s third-largest oil consumer behind the United States and China, is planning a major expansion of its refining capacity to meet rising domestic fuel demand. Refining capacity is projected to increase by 20 per cent to 309.5 mtpa by 2030 from 256.8 mtpa as of April 2024, driven by investments from state-owned oil marketing companies such as Indian Oil Corporation Ltd, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd, and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd. Rising industrialisation, rapid urbanisation, and massive government-led infrastructure investments are expected to boost transportation fuel demand, particularly for petrol and diesel. At the same time, demand for petrochemical products will also rise in tandem with broader economic development. In contrast, China’s refining capacity is nearing a state-imposed cap of 1 billion tonnes, curbing further growth potential. With the country’s pivot toward cleaner energy sources, including solar, wind, and electric vehicles, consumption of traditional fuels like gasoline and diesel is set to decline, although demand for jet fuel and naphtha may still grow due to rising air travel and chemical production. India’s import dependence to rise Despite its growing consumption, India’s domestic oil and gas production remains a weak link. Moody’s warns that if India cannot reverse its declining output from ageing oil fields and limited exploration investment, its reliance on imports will rise further. Currently, India imports nearly 90 per cent of its crude oil and around 50 per cent of its natural gas requirements, raising concerns about long-term energy security. In contrast, China, which imports over 70 per cent of its crude and 35–40 per cent of its gas needs, is actively working to reduce import dependency through heavy investment in domestic shale gas and offshore exploration projects. As a result, Chinese national oil companies (NOCs) are expected to outperform their Indian peers in production growth over the next 3-5 years. Chinese NOCs also benefit from greater vertical integration, which Moody’s says reduces earnings volatility, along with stronger financial metrics such as lower leverage and higher interest coverage. In India, weaker integration, ageing infrastructure, and policy-related earnings swings have made national firms more vulnerable. Green energy transition Moody’s report highlights a significant policy divergence between the two Asian giants. China’s energy policies are more market-oriented and focused on enhancing self-sufficiency, while India’s regulatory framework still heavily influences fuel prices, often leading to volatile earnings for Indian NOCs. Additionally, India relies more on taxes and dividends from its petroleum sector to fund its fiscal deficit, increasing political sensitivity around fuel prices. Environmental policies are also advancing at different speeds. Chinese NOCs are under greater regulatory pressure to transition to greener practices, while India’s carbon regulations are still evolving. This means Indian firms currently face less immediate pressure to invest in low-carbon technologies, though such pressures are likely to grow in the coming years as global climate commitments intensify. Meanwhile, India is pushing to increase the share of natural gas in its energy mix from 6 to 15 per cent by 2030. Gas is seen as a critical transition fuel, particularly for sectors like fertilisers and petrochemicals, and for urban energy use via piped and compressed natural gas. Gas demand in India is expected to grow by 4-7 per cent annually through the decade, outpacing China’s gas demand growth rate. However, challenges remain in improving domestic gas infrastructure and maintaining affordability, especially against the backdrop of rapidly falling renewable energy prices. As China transitions toward a lower-carbon, more self-sufficient energy economy, India’s growing appetite for oil and gas places it at the centre of global energy markets. However, India’s growing dependence on imports and lag in domestic production pose risks to its energy security and economic stability. While India is set to be the engine of global oil demand growth, its long-term sustainability will depend on policy reforms, infrastructure development, and investments in domestic exploration and green energy. According to Moody’s, the ability of Indian NOCs to execute production plans and manage volatility will be crucial in determining the country’s success in navigating the next decade of energy transition.

The shift comes as China approaches peak crude consumption, driven by slower economic growth and accelerated adoption of new energy vehicles, while India continues to experience robust energy demand growth supported by economic expansion and infrastructure development.

India to drive global oil demand growth as China nears peak: Moody’s

The oil market has had a wild ride so far this year, trading down to levels last seen in 2021. Ing predicts oil could fall further and crash below the 60-dollar mark next year.

Ing says oil could fall below $60 next year | wion business watch

In the wake of escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, Indian Oil ensures there is 'ample fuel stocks across the country'.&nbsp;
This announcement seemed essential at this point, discouraging people from spreading disinformation and panicking. As citizens are vigilant and trying their best to gatekeep information amid a flurry of propaganda floating on the internet.
Also read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/operation-sindoor-indian-armed-forces-strike-at-terrorist-camps-pahalgam-terror-attack-india-pakistan-9042302">India-Pak War LIVE: 'Pakistan using civil airliners, 300-400 drones were used to intrude,' says MEA</a>
Petroleum company Indian Oil, in a statement, wrote, "Indian Oil has ample fuel stocks across the country, and our supply lines are operating smoothly."
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet publive-iframes-block publive-Twitter-block" contenteditable="false" width="600" height="400" id="PL_blockquote_block-magr9fhy-yluy7b1n-xh7u3pyg">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/IndianOil?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#IndianOil</a> has ample fuel stocks across the country and our supply lines are operating smoothly. There is no need for panic buying&mdash;fuel and LPG is readily available at all our outlets. Help us serve you better by staying calm and avoiding unnecessary rush. This will keep our&hellip;
&mdash; Indian Oil Corp Ltd (@IndianOilcl) <a href="https://twitter.com/IndianOilcl/status/1920708435760546138?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 9, 2025</a></blockquote>
"There is no need for panic buying&mdash;fuel and LPG is readily available at all our outlets," it highlighted.
As the parts of the country witnessed a blackout and heard air raid sirens, a sense of panic persisted. But putting an end to the spreading of disinformation on WhatsApp groups and other similar platforms, this announcement is an assurance.&nbsp;
The Government's Press Information Bureau (PIB) has been fact-checking misleading threads circulating online. One of which also mentions keeping Rs 50,000 at home and mentions fuelling all vehicles.
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet publive-iframes-block publive-Twitter-block" contenteditable="false" width="600" height="400" id="PL_blockquote_block-magr9j8k-q9q863xn-nmbzwatp">
An image of an advisory is being shared online, claiming that the Government has urged individuals to take precautionary measures and keep essential items ready at home.<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/PIBFactCheck?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#PIBFactCheck</a> ❌ This claim is <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/FAKE?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#FAKE</a>. The government has not issued any such advisory ✅ Beware! Trust&hellip; <a href="https://t.co/JtEcr8iRge">pic.twitter.com/JtEcr8iRge</a>
&mdash; PIB Fact Check (@PIBFactCheck) <a href="https://twitter.com/PIBFactCheck/status/1919774839218540992?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">May 6, 2025</a></blockquote>
Indian Oil further added in its statement, "Help us serve you better by staying calm and avoiding unnecessary rush. This will keep our supply lines running seamlessly and ensure uninterrupted fuel access for all."

In the wake of escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, Indian Oil ensures there is 'ample fuel stocks across the country'. India news

In the wake of escalating tensions between India and Pakistan, Indian Oil ensures there is 'ample fuel stocks across the country'. This announcement seemed essential at this point, discouraging people from spreading disinformation and panicking. As citizens are vigilant and trying their best to gatekeep information amid a flurry of propaganda floating on the internet. Also read: India-Pak War LIVE: 'Pakistan using civil airliners, 300-400 drones were used to intrude,' says MEA Petroleum company Indian Oil, in a statement, wrote, "Indian Oil has ample fuel stocks across the country, and our supply lines are operating smoothly." #IndianOil has ample fuel stocks across the country and our supply lines are operating smoothly. There is no need for panic buying—fuel and LPG is readily available at all our outlets. Help us serve you better by staying calm and avoiding unnecessary rush. This will keep our… — Indian Oil Corp Ltd (@IndianOilcl) May 9, 2025 "There is no need for panic buying—fuel and LPG is readily available at all our outlets," it highlighted. As the parts of the country witnessed a blackout and heard air raid sirens, a sense of panic persisted. But putting an end to the spreading of disinformation on WhatsApp groups and other similar platforms, this announcement is an assurance. The Government's Press Information Bureau (PIB) has been fact-checking misleading threads circulating online. One of which also mentions keeping Rs 50,000 at home and mentions fuelling all vehicles. An image of an advisory is being shared online, claiming that the Government has urged individuals to take precautionary measures and keep essential items ready at home.#PIBFactCheck ❌ This claim is #FAKE. The government has not issued any such advisory ✅ Beware! Trust… pic.twitter.com/JtEcr8iRge — PIB Fact Check (@PIBFactCheck) May 6, 2025 Indian Oil further added in its statement, "Help us serve you better by staying calm and avoiding unnecessary rush. This will keep our supply lines running seamlessly and ensure uninterrupted fuel access for all."

DO NOT panic! 'Ample fuel stocks across country,' assures Indian Oil

Rising tensions between India and Pakistan following recent cross-border military action are unlikely to significantly impact global crude oil prices, according to industry experts.

Despite concerns about regional stability, analysts note that oil supply chains remain intact, and the geopolitical situation has not escalated to a level that would threaten global energy flows.

Crude Unfazed By India-Pak Clash

Crude oil prices experienced a significant decline, falling below $60 per barrel briefly -- this was following OPEC+'s announcement to increase production by 411,000 barrels per day starting in June. This move comes after a similar increase in May and has raised concerns about a potential oversupply in the market.

Crude oil dips below $60 amid OPEC+ move

Oil prices fell significantly on May 05 (Monday) after OPEC+ announced plans to boost oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, compared to May levels, as part of a plan to gradually unwind voluntary output cuts, the group said Saturday following a virtual meeting. The decision to increase output sparked concerns over a potential oversupply, further exacerbating fears of fragile global demand.<o:p></o:p>
International benchmark Brent crude futures were trading at $59.14 per barrel as of 04.09 GMT, a 3.51 per cent decline on the previous close, while the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) &nbsp;dipped by 3.76 per cent to $56.1 per barrel. However, key benchmarks later recovered some ground with Brent futures trading at $60.17 per barrel, down 1.83 per cent as of 07.27 GMT, and WTI futures declining by 1.85 per cent to $57.21 per barrel, down from $58.10 at the close of the prior session.<o:p></o:p>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">OPEC&rsquo;s oil supply<o:p></o:p></h2>
The OPEC+ group announced that eight of its members&mdash;Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman&mdash;would increase oil output starting June. This marks the second consecutive month of production hikes, following a decision to unwind voluntary production cuts that had been in place for months.<o:p></o:p>
The move is seen as a response to supply concerns, as the global oil market has experienced significant volatility in recent months, with prices falling nearly 30 per cent over the past year and about 20 per cent in 2025. Despite this, OPEC+ pointed to strong fundamentals as the reason behind the decision, although analysts have speculated that the increase could also be aimed at improving relations with the US, particularly ahead of President Donald Trump's scheduled visit to the West Asia later this month.<o:p></o:p>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">Oil and paint companies profit<o:p></o:p></h2>
The development led to 2 per cent to 3 per cent rally in the shares of oil marketing companies, paint manufacturers, and tyre companies. Following the plunge in crude, shares of Bharat Petroleum traded at ₹323 a piece, up by 4.1 per cent, Hindustan Petroleum up 5.6 per cent and Indian Oil Corporation up 3.9 per cent.<o:p></o:p>
Apart from these shares of paint companies like Asian Paints, Berger Paints, Indigo Paints, and Kansai Nerolac also traded 1 per cent to 2 per cent higher in the morning session.<o:p></o:p>
(With inputs from agencies)

Business & Economy: Oil prices saw a sharp fall after the eight-member OPEC+ announced plans to boost oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in June

Oil prices fell significantly on May 05 (Monday) after OPEC+ announced plans to boost oil production by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) in June, compared to May levels, as part of a plan to gradually unwind voluntary output cuts, the group said Saturday following a virtual meeting. The decision to increase output sparked concerns over a potential oversupply, further exacerbating fears of fragile global demand. International benchmark Brent crude futures were trading at $59.14 per barrel as of 04.09 GMT, a 3.51 per cent decline on the previous close, while the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dipped by 3.76 per cent to $56.1 per barrel. However, key benchmarks later recovered some ground with Brent futures trading at $60.17 per barrel, down 1.83 per cent as of 07.27 GMT, and WTI futures declining by 1.85 per cent to $57.21 per barrel, down from $58.10 at the close of the prior session. OPEC’s oil supply The OPEC+ group announced that eight of its members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—would increase oil output starting June. This marks the second consecutive month of production hikes, following a decision to unwind voluntary production cuts that had been in place for months. The move is seen as a response to supply concerns, as the global oil market has experienced significant volatility in recent months, with prices falling nearly 30 per cent over the past year and about 20 per cent in 2025. Despite this, OPEC+ pointed to strong fundamentals as the reason behind the decision, although analysts have speculated that the increase could also be aimed at improving relations with the US, particularly ahead of President Donald Trump's scheduled visit to the West Asia later this month. Oil and paint companies profit The development led to 2 per cent to 3 per cent rally in the shares of oil marketing companies, paint manufacturers, and tyre companies. Following the plunge in crude, shares of Bharat Petroleum traded at ₹323 a piece, up by 4.1 per cent, Hindustan Petroleum up 5.6 per cent and Indian Oil Corporation up 3.9 per cent. Apart from these shares of paint companies like Asian Paints, Berger Paints, Indigo Paints, and Kansai Nerolac also traded 1 per cent to 2 per cent higher in the morning session. (With inputs from agencies)

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