India is just days away from the Indian Budget 2020 where the Modi government will present its fiscal road map. This budget is the most anticipated because of the 'Global Economic Slowdown', the expectations are high but the choices are limited. WION spoke to an expert, American Businessman and investor, James Roger on this topic. Watch video:

What will Indian Budget 2020 be like?

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Friday said that the country is witnessing the "temporary effects of a global slowdown" and that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her deputy are working day and night to fight it.

Shah stated that he believed that India will be the first one to pull out of this global economic slowdown.&nbsp;

"I believe the Indian economy will be the first to be free from the slowdown in the world," Shah said at an event today.&nbsp;

Shah's comments came while he was addressing investors at the first groundbreaking ceremony of Himachal Pradesh Global Investors Meet-2019 in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh.

Shah said the government was working to deal with the effect of the slowdown.

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
<div class="twitter-block" draggable="false">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WATCH?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WATCH</a> Home Minister Amit Shah in Shimla: You are seeing temporary effects of global slowdown. Under leadership of Modi ji, Nirmala Sitharaman ji and Anurag ji are working day&amp;night to fight it. I believe, Indian economy will be the first to be free from slowdown in the world. <a href="https://t.co/eNhv2picnU">pic.twitter.com/eNhv2picnU</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1210515740987707392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 27, 2019</a></blockquote>
<script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></div>
<a class="close-mark close-div" href="#" id="jqclosemark">×</a></div>

"What we are witnessing is a temporary effect of a global slowdown. To fight it, the government is working on different types of plans," he said.

"I am confident that within some time we will be able to come out of it and we will emerge as the first nation in the world free from the global slowdown," he said.

The minister said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her deputy Anurag Thakur were working on working are on various plans to fight with this global slowdown under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India on Friday released its '<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/indias-financial-system-stable-despite-weakening-domestic-growth-rbi-270631">Financial Stability Report</a>' and said that despite weakening domestic growth, India's financial system remains stable, news agency ANI reported.&nbsp;

The RBI stated that the banking sector's resilience has improved, however, "risks from global/domestic economic uncertainties and geopolitical developments persist".&nbsp;

(With inputs from ANI)&nbsp;

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Friday said that the country is witnessing the "temporary effects of a global slowdown" and that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her deputy are working day and night to fight it.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Friday said that the country is witnessing the "temporary effects of a global slowdown" and that Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her deputy are working day and night to fight it. Shah stated that he believed that India will be the first one to pull out of this global economic slowdown. "I believe the Indian economy will be the first to be free from the slowdown in the world," Shah said at an event today. Shah's comments came while he was addressing investors at the first groundbreaking ceremony of Himachal Pradesh Global Investors Meet-2019 in Shimla, Himachal Pradesh. Shah said the government was working to deal with the effect of the slowdown. #WATCH Home Minister Amit Shah in Shimla: You are seeing temporary effects of global slowdown. Under leadership of Modi ji, Nirmala Sitharaman ji and Anurag ji are working day&night to fight it. I believe, Indian economy will be the first to be free from slowdown in the world. pic.twitter.com/eNhv2picnU — ANI (@ANI) December 27, 2019 × "What we are witnessing is a temporary effect of a global slowdown. To fight it, the government is working on different types of plans," he said. "I am confident that within some time we will be able to come out of it and we will emerge as the first nation in the world free from the global slowdown," he said. The minister said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her deputy Anurag Thakur were working on working are on various plans to fight with this global slowdown under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India on Friday released its 'Financial Stability Report' and said that despite weakening domestic growth, India's financial system remains stable, news agency ANI reported. The RBI stated that the banking sector's resilience has improved, however, "risks from global/domestic economic uncertainties and geopolitical developments persist". (With inputs from ANI)

India is witnessing temporary effects of global slowdown: Amit Shah 

Five interest rate cuts since the start of the year hasn't stopped India's economy from slowing to its weakest growth rate since 2013, but the&nbsp;Reserve Bank of India&nbsp;is expected to make its sixth cut on Thursday to give what little relief it can.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/indias-q2-gdp-falls-to-45-lowest-in-6-years-265259">Growing by 4.5&nbsp;per cent</a>&nbsp;annually in the June-September quarter, down from 7 per cent&nbsp;a year earlier, the economy is expanding well below the rate needed to generate enough jobs for the millions of younth&nbsp;entering the labour market each month.

The gross domestic product numbers released on Friday showed government spending helping to prop up weak demand, but private investment growth had virtually collapsed, with a crisis in the shadow banking sector causing illiquidity in the economy.

A Reuters poll of 70 economists predicted the RBI would cut its repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.90 per cent&nbsp;when the monetary policy committee's decision is announced on Thursday, and then by another 15 bps in the second quarter of 2020, where it will stay at least until 2021.

A 25 bps cut would take the cumulative rate cuts by Asia's most aggressive central bank to 160 bps since February and will be the most in a calendar year since 2009.

Madhavi Arora, economist forex and rates at Edelweiss Securities, said the RBI faced "a tough policy dilemma", as economic growth was underperforming, inflation was overshooting, and the government lacked fiscal room to manoeuvre.

She said the latest GDP numbers supported the view in Edelweiss that the RBI will ease "by at least another 50 bps in this cycle, despite an uptick in inflation beyond the 4 per cent&nbsp;comfort zone in the coming months."

Annual retail inflation rose to 4.62 per cent&nbsp;last month, climbing above 4 per cent&nbsp;for the first time in 15 months and up from 3.99 per cent&nbsp;in September.

Analysts believe transient factors were to blame, so the central bank still had room to continue cutting rates.

The September industrial output too contracted 4.3 per cent, following a decline of 1.4 per cent&nbsp;in August.

At its policy review in October, the RBI sharply lowered its growth projection for 2019/20 (April-March) by 80 bps to 6.1 per cent, but most economists expect another downward revision on Thursday.

Rate cuts alone are however expected to do little to revive growth and calls for more direct fiscal stimulus have grown in recent weeks.

A significant minority of economists - 24 of 56 - who answered an additional question in the poll said rate cuts would marginally boost the economy, while nearly a third said they would have little or no impact.

Anagha Deodhar, an economist at ICICI Securities in Mumbai said there was a strong case for an interest rate on Thursday, though monetary policy has limited benefits in the current circumstances.

"Hence, fiscal policy will have to do the heavy-lifting to boost growth. Sector-specific measures and increased government spending could be the quickest way to boost growth in the near term," Deodhar said.

Five interest rate cuts since the start of the year hasn't stopped India's economy from slowing to its weakest growth rate since 2013, but the Reserve Bank of India is expected to make its sixth cut on Thursday to give what little relief it can.

Five interest rate cuts since the start of the year hasn't stopped India's economy from slowing to its weakest growth rate since 2013, but the Reserve Bank of India is expected to make its sixth cut on Thursday to give what little relief it can. Growing by 4.5 per cent annually in the June-September quarter, down from 7 per cent a year earlier, the economy is expanding well below the rate needed to generate enough jobs for the millions of younth entering the labour market each month. The gross domestic product numbers released on Friday showed government spending helping to prop up weak demand, but private investment growth had virtually collapsed, with a crisis in the shadow banking sector causing illiquidity in the economy. A Reuters poll of 70 economists predicted the RBI would cut its repo rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.90 per cent when the monetary policy committee's decision is announced on Thursday, and then by another 15 bps in the second quarter of 2020, where it will stay at least until 2021. A 25 bps cut would take the cumulative rate cuts by Asia's most aggressive central bank to 160 bps since February and will be the most in a calendar year since 2009. Madhavi Arora, economist forex and rates at Edelweiss Securities, said the RBI faced "a tough policy dilemma", as economic growth was underperforming, inflation was overshooting, and the government lacked fiscal room to manoeuvre. She said the latest GDP numbers supported the view in Edelweiss that the RBI will ease "by at least another 50 bps in this cycle, despite an uptick in inflation beyond the 4 per cent comfort zone in the coming months." Annual retail inflation rose to 4.62 per cent last month, climbing above 4 per cent for the first time in 15 months and up from 3.99 per cent in September. Analysts believe transient factors were to blame, so the central bank still had room to continue cutting rates. The September industrial output too contracted 4.3 per cent, following a decline of 1.4 per cent in August. At its policy review in October, the RBI sharply lowered its growth projection for 2019/20 (April-March) by 80 bps to 6.1 per cent, but most economists expect another downward revision on Thursday. Rate cuts alone are however expected to do little to revive growth and calls for more direct fiscal stimulus have grown in recent weeks. A significant minority of economists - 24 of 56 - who answered an additional question in the poll said rate cuts would marginally boost the economy, while nearly a third said they would have little or no impact. Anagha Deodhar, an economist at ICICI Securities in Mumbai said there was a strong case for an interest rate on Thursday, though monetary policy has limited benefits in the current circumstances. "Hence, fiscal policy will have to do the heavy-lifting to boost growth. Sector-specific measures and increased government spending could be the quickest way to boost growth in the near term," Deodhar said.

RBI likely to slash interest rates for 6th time on December 5 to support growth

China's factory activity showed surprising signs of improvement in November, with growth picking up to a near three-year high, a private sector survey showed on Monday, reinforcing upbeat government data released over the weekend.

But analysts remain concerned about deflationary risks in the sector, unconvinced that the worst is over yet for Chinese manufacturers. They say the sub-indexes of both surveys painted a picture of patchy recovery that will be difficult to sustain.

"The improvement last month was driven by different factors across the two manufacturing indices, making it hard to pinpoint the reason for the apparent uptick industrial activity," Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist, wrote in a note on Monday.

"We doubt this marks the start of a decisive rebound inactivity," he said.

The Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) index rose to 51.8 in November from 51.7 in the previous month, marking the fastest expansion since December 2016, when it was 51.9.

The 50-mark separates expansion from contraction on a monthly basis.&nbsp;

Total new orders and factory production remained at buoyant levels in November, although they both eased slightly from record highs in the previous month, when they grew the fastest in over six years and nearly three years, respectively.

Larry Hu, Chief China economist at Macquarie Group, cautioned that the improvement could be hit as many one-off tailwinds wear off, such as better sentiment on trade deal and warm weather. Business confidence slipped and companies were reluctant to replenish their inventories, worried about the uncertain outlook for demand and the prolonged <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/china-wants-us-tariffs-rolled-back-in-phase-one-trade-deal-report-265517">China-US&nbsp;trade war</a>, the survey showed.

China's official factory activity gauge on Saturday also surprised, returning to growth for the first time in seven months as domestic demand picked up in response to stimulus measures. But gains were slight and export orders sluggish.

The official survey focuses more on heavy industry than Caixin's, which is believed to include firms that are more export oriented. The two surveys also cover different geographical areas.

The Caixin survey showed sub-index for new export orders came in at 51, marginally below that in October, when it was the highest since February 2018.

Resilience in the sector led to a notable recovery in the labour market in the month, with companies adding workers for the first time in eight months.

However, profit margins remained under pressure, with input costs continuing to rise while output charges fell, suggesting some firms are still cutting their prices due to fierce competition for sales.

"While growth is likely to stabilise in November, the overall downtrend will continue in months ahead," Hu told Reuters.

The Chinese government has been trying to spur domestic demand for well over a year, largely through higher infrastructure spending and tax cuts, but the measures have been slow to gain traction.

Economic growth cooled to a near 30-year low of 6.0 per cent&nbsp;in the third quarter.

"I think the rebound in headline PMIs may indicate the possibility that <a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-%26-economy/china-economic-growth-slows-to-67-in-second-quarter-151991">China</a> will still be able to achieve above 6 per cent&nbsp;growth rate in 2019," said Betty Wang, senior China economist at ANZ.&nbsp;

"But the price subindices in the manufacturing PMI survey still declined, which suggests the deflationary risk in the manufacturing sector remains."

To help avert a sharper slowdown, China has brought forward 1 trillion yuan&nbsp;of the 2020 local government special bond quota to this year. The bonds are used largely to fund public works.

While China has cut some of its key lending rates in the last few months to reduce corporate financing costs, the reductions have been quite modest. Analysts believe policymakers are reluctant to unleash more aggressive stimulus out of concern it could heighten financial risks and add to a mountain of debt.

Washington and Beijing said in October they were working on a "phase one" trade agreement, but initial market hopes for a quick deal are fading after weeks of conflicting headlines.

A deal could slide into next year as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks, and the Trump administration counters with heightened demands of its own.

Highlighting the tension, China's Global Times newspaper said on Sunday that Beijing is demanding Washington removes existing tariffs, not just planned tariffs, as part of the deal, citing sources with direct knowledge of the trade talks.

Additional US&nbsp;duties on Chinese exports are set to kick in on December&nbsp;15.

Months of protests in Chinese-ruled Hong Kong have also exacerbated tensions.

A trade deal has now stalled after the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/united-states-house-passes-hong-kong-democracy-act-256310">US&nbsp;passed legislation</a> backing protesters in Hong Kong, news website Axios reported on Sunday, citing a source close to Trump's negotiating team.

China's factory activity showed surprising signs of improvement in November, with growth picking up to a near three-year high, a private sector survey showed on Monday, reinforcing upbeat government data released over the weekend.

China's factory activity showed surprising signs of improvement in November, with growth picking up to a near three-year high, a private sector survey showed on Monday, reinforcing upbeat government data released over the weekend. But analysts remain concerned about deflationary risks in the sector, unconvinced that the worst is over yet for Chinese manufacturers. They say the sub-indexes of both surveys painted a picture of patchy recovery that will be difficult to sustain. "The improvement last month was driven by different factors across the two manufacturing indices, making it hard to pinpoint the reason for the apparent uptick industrial activity," Julian Evans-Pritchard, Senior China Economist, wrote in a note on Monday. "We doubt this marks the start of a decisive rebound inactivity," he said. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) index rose to 51.8 in November from 51.7 in the previous month, marking the fastest expansion since December 2016, when it was 51.9. The 50-mark separates expansion from contraction on a monthly basis. Total new orders and factory production remained at buoyant levels in November, although they both eased slightly from record highs in the previous month, when they grew the fastest in over six years and nearly three years, respectively. Larry Hu, Chief China economist at Macquarie Group, cautioned that the improvement could be hit as many one-off tailwinds wear off, such as better sentiment on trade deal and warm weather. Business confidence slipped and companies were reluctant to replenish their inventories, worried about the uncertain outlook for demand and the prolonged China-US trade war, the survey showed. China's official factory activity gauge on Saturday also surprised, returning to growth for the first time in seven months as domestic demand picked up in response to stimulus measures. But gains were slight and export orders sluggish. The official survey focuses more on heavy industry than Caixin's, which is believed to include firms that are more export oriented. The two surveys also cover different geographical areas. The Caixin survey showed sub-index for new export orders came in at 51, marginally below that in October, when it was the highest since February 2018. Resilience in the sector led to a notable recovery in the labour market in the month, with companies adding workers for the first time in eight months. However, profit margins remained under pressure, with input costs continuing to rise while output charges fell, suggesting some firms are still cutting their prices due to fierce competition for sales. "While growth is likely to stabilise in November, the overall downtrend will continue in months ahead," Hu told Reuters. The Chinese government has been trying to spur domestic demand for well over a year, largely through higher infrastructure spending and tax cuts, but the measures have been slow to gain traction. Economic growth cooled to a near 30-year low of 6.0 per cent in the third quarter. "I think the rebound in headline PMIs may indicate the possibility that China will still be able to achieve above 6 per cent growth rate in 2019," said Betty Wang, senior China economist at ANZ. "But the price subindices in the manufacturing PMI survey still declined, which suggests the deflationary risk in the manufacturing sector remains." To help avert a sharper slowdown, China has brought forward 1 trillion yuan of the 2020 local government special bond quota to this year. The bonds are used largely to fund public works. While China has cut some of its key lending rates in the last few months to reduce corporate financing costs, the reductions have been quite modest. Analysts believe policymakers are reluctant to unleash more aggressive stimulus out of concern it could heighten financial risks and add to a mountain of debt. Washington and Beijing said in October they were working on a "phase one" trade agreement, but initial market hopes for a quick deal are fading after weeks of conflicting headlines. A deal could slide into next year as Beijing presses for more extensive tariff rollbacks, and the Trump administration counters with heightened demands of its own. Highlighting the tension, China's Global Times newspaper said on Sunday that Beijing is demanding Washington removes existing tariffs, not just planned tariffs, as part of the deal, citing sources with direct knowledge of the trade talks. Additional US duties on Chinese exports are set to kick in on December 15. Months of protests in Chinese-ruled Hong Kong have also exacerbated tensions. A trade deal has now stalled after the US passed legislation backing protesters in Hong Kong, news website Axios reported on Sunday, citing a source close to Trump's negotiating team.

China's factory activity surprises with fastest expansion in three years

Brexit&nbsp;pressures and political uncertainty have prompted the Confederation of British&nbsp;Industry&nbsp;and a manufacturing trade body, Make&nbsp;UK, to downgrade their growth forecasts for next year.

Official figures have shown that Britain's economy is growing at the&nbsp;weakest annual pace since 2010, and&nbsp;industry&nbsp;leaders see little or no improvement in&nbsp;2020, even if Prime Minister Boris Johnson wins re-election and secures a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/uk-pm-johnson-says-uk-will-leave-eu-by-jan-31-at-the-latest-265230">Brexit&nbsp;divorce deal</a> by a January&nbsp;31 deadline.

The CBI on Monday predicted economic growth of 1.3 per cent&nbsp;this year and 1.2 per cent&nbsp;in&nbsp;2020, followed by a pick-up to 1.8 per cent&nbsp;in 2021, assuming Johnson reaches a trade deal with the EU that leads to no tariffs and little divergence from EU rules.

"Alongside perennial&nbsp;Brexit&nbsp;uncertainty, (businesses) are also contending with softer&nbsp;global&nbsp;demand," CBI chief economist Rain Newton-Smith said.

Back in July, the CBI forecast growth of 1.4 per cent&nbsp;this year and 1.5 per cent&nbsp;next.

Make&nbsp;UK&nbsp;halved its forecast for manufacturing growth next year to 0.3 per cent&nbsp;from 0.6 per cent, though it kept its forecast for growth in the overall economy in&nbsp;2020&nbsp;unchanged at 1.4 per cent, up from 1.3 per cent this year.

"Export orders have increased slightly this quarter, indicating greater confidence from foreign customers about purchasing&nbsp;UK&nbsp;goods as concerns about an end of year no-deal&nbsp;Brexit&nbsp;fade," Make&nbsp;UK's chief executive, Stephen Phipson, said.

Britain's economy has slowed since the June 2016 referendum decision to leave the European Union, with manufacturing especially hard hit due to concerns about disruption to supply chains, on top of pressures from the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/china-wants-us-tariffs-rolled-back-in-phase-one-trade-deal-report-265517">US-China trade war</a>.

Johnson's&nbsp;Brexit&nbsp;plan - which he was unable to pass through parliament before he called an early election on <a href="https://www.wionews.com/opinions/uk-elections-2019-five-reasons-to-vote-265079">December&nbsp;12</a> - sees Britain leaving the EU on January&nbsp;31, and then negotiating a new trade deal to take effect at the end of&nbsp;2020.

Johnson has said he will not allow transitional arrangements to continue beyond the end of&nbsp;2020, but many trade experts say this leaves too little time to negotiate a good deal.

If a post-EU transition deal expires at the end of&nbsp;2020&nbsp;without an agreement settled for future trade ties, the CBI predicted a sharp slowdown in growth in 2021 to just 0.4 per cent&nbsp;- the&nbsp;weakest since the financial crisis.

"A no-deal&nbsp;Brexit&nbsp;would put the brakes on&nbsp;UK&nbsp;growth and realise businesses' worst fears," Newton-Smith said.

Brexit pressures and political uncertainty have prompted the Confederation of British Industry and a manufacturing trade body, Make UK, to downgrade their growth forecasts for next year.

Brexit pressures and political uncertainty have prompted the Confederation of British Industry and a manufacturing trade body, Make UK, to downgrade their growth forecasts for next year. Official figures have shown that Britain's economy is growing at the weakest annual pace since 2010, and industry leaders see little or no improvement in 2020, even if Prime Minister Boris Johnson wins re-election and secures a Brexit divorce deal by a January 31 deadline. The CBI on Monday predicted economic growth of 1.3 per cent this year and 1.2 per cent in 2020, followed by a pick-up to 1.8 per cent in 2021, assuming Johnson reaches a trade deal with the EU that leads to no tariffs and little divergence from EU rules. "Alongside perennial Brexit uncertainty, (businesses) are also contending with softer global demand," CBI chief economist Rain Newton-Smith said. Back in July, the CBI forecast growth of 1.4 per cent this year and 1.5 per cent next. Make UK halved its forecast for manufacturing growth next year to 0.3 per cent from 0.6 per cent, though it kept its forecast for growth in the overall economy in 2020 unchanged at 1.4 per cent, up from 1.3 per cent this year. "Export orders have increased slightly this quarter, indicating greater confidence from foreign customers about purchasing UK goods as concerns about an end of year no-deal Brexit fade," Make UK's chief executive, Stephen Phipson, said. Britain's economy has slowed since the June 2016 referendum decision to leave the European Union, with manufacturing especially hard hit due to concerns about disruption to supply chains, on top of pressures from the US-China trade war. Johnson's Brexit plan - which he was unable to pass through parliament before he called an early election on December 12 - sees Britain leaving the EU on January 31, and then negotiating a new trade deal to take effect at the end of 2020. Johnson has said he will not allow transitional arrangements to continue beyond the end of 2020, but many trade experts say this leaves too little time to negotiate a good deal. If a post-EU transition deal expires at the end of 2020 without an agreement settled for future trade ties, the CBI predicted a sharp slowdown in growth in 2021 to just 0.4 per cent - the weakest since the financial crisis. "A no-deal Brexit would put the brakes on UK growth and realise businesses' worst fears," Newton-Smith said.

Brexit, weak global demand to hurt UK in 2020, industry warns

Australian employment suffered its sharpest fall in three years last month, data showed on Thursday, underlining the need for urgent stimulus to revive economic activity and wages.

The local dollar fell a third of a cent to $0.6806&nbsp;as the market narrowed the odds on a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in December, though it was still considered an outside chance.

The disappointing report will also pile political pressure on the conservative government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison to launch a fiscal rescue package for the economy.

Morrison has so far resisted all calls for action, in part by citing continued strength of the labour market.

That position will be harder to defend given net new jobs fell 19,000 in October, the largest drop since late 2016. The unemployment rate also nudged up to 5.3 per cent, reversing a promising dip in September.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a gain of 15,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.3 per cent.&nbsp;

"Slower employment growth also presents an additional challenge for the RBA's outlook for a recovery in consumer spending," said NAB economist Kaixin Owyong.

"Ideally the government would step in to deliver an additional fiscal stimulus, but if this fails to eventuate the RBA could adopt unconventional policy and cut the cash rate to 0.25 per cent."

The central bank has already cut rates three times to a historic low of 0.75 per cent, but so far the only impact has been a revival in-home price inflation.

Financial markets imply around a 24 per cent&nbsp;probability of a quarter-point easing at the RBA's next meeting on Dec. 3, rising to 62% for February.

Just last week the RBA threw in the towel on getting wages going, forecasting miserly annual growth of 2.3 per cent&nbsp;right out to 2021. Indeed, data out on Wednesday showed wage growth actually went backwards to 2.2 per cent&nbsp;in the September quarter.

Up until now, Australia's problem was not a dearth of hiring. Some 251,800 net new positions were created in the year to October, with the majority full time.

Annual jobs growth ran at a solid 2.0 per cent, comfortably above the latest US&nbsp;performance of 1.4 per cent.

The trouble, ironically, is that the labour market has proved too flexible in providing the workers needed to fill those jobs. All the growth in employment was met by an increased supply of labour, thus keeping the jobless rate up.

Participation in the workforce is up near-record peaks at 66.0 per cent&nbsp;and, adding in those who want to work more hours, the underutilisation rate was a high 13.8 per cent.

This phenomenon is partly a direct result of government policy. Extending childcare and disability payments have lifted the share of females in the workforce to all-time peaks.

The conservative government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison has also kept the doors wide open to skilled migration, with net arrivals running at almost 300,000 in the year to September, the highest in more than five years.

It has also imposed caps on pay rises for the public sector which has kept growth well under 3% for every year since 2013.

Australian employment suffered its sharpest fall in three years last month, data showed on Thursday, underlining the need for urgent stimulus to revive economic activity and wages.

Australian employment suffered its sharpest fall in three years last month, data showed on Thursday, underlining the need for urgent stimulus to revive economic activity and wages. The local dollar fell a third of a cent to $0.6806 as the market narrowed the odds on a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in December, though it was still considered an outside chance. The disappointing report will also pile political pressure on the conservative government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison to launch a fiscal rescue package for the economy. Morrison has so far resisted all calls for action, in part by citing continued strength of the labour market. That position will be harder to defend given net new jobs fell 19,000 in October, the largest drop since late 2016. The unemployment rate also nudged up to 5.3 per cent, reversing a promising dip in September. Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast a gain of 15,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 5.3 per cent. "Slower employment growth also presents an additional challenge for the RBA's outlook for a recovery in consumer spending," said NAB economist Kaixin Owyong. "Ideally the government would step in to deliver an additional fiscal stimulus, but if this fails to eventuate the RBA could adopt unconventional policy and cut the cash rate to 0.25 per cent." The central bank has already cut rates three times to a historic low of 0.75 per cent, but so far the only impact has been a revival in-home price inflation. Financial markets imply around a 24 per cent probability of a quarter-point easing at the RBA's next meeting on Dec. 3, rising to 62% for February. Just last week the RBA threw in the towel on getting wages going, forecasting miserly annual growth of 2.3 per cent right out to 2021. Indeed, data out on Wednesday showed wage growth actually went backwards to 2.2 per cent in the September quarter. Up until now, Australia's problem was not a dearth of hiring. Some 251,800 net new positions were created in the year to October, with the majority full time. Annual jobs growth ran at a solid 2.0 per cent, comfortably above the latest US performance of 1.4 per cent. The trouble, ironically, is that the labour market has proved too flexible in providing the workers needed to fill those jobs. All the growth in employment was met by an increased supply of labour, thus keeping the jobless rate up. Participation in the workforce is up near-record peaks at 66.0 per cent and, adding in those who want to work more hours, the underutilisation rate was a high 13.8 per cent. This phenomenon is partly a direct result of government policy. Extending childcare and disability payments have lifted the share of females in the workforce to all-time peaks. The conservative government of Prime Minister Scott Morrison has also kept the doors wide open to skilled migration, with net arrivals running at almost 300,000 in the year to September, the highest in more than five years. It has also imposed caps on pay rises for the public sector which has kept growth well under 3% for every year since 2013.

Australian jobs suffer biggest drop in three years

The German economy escaped a recession in the third quarter as consumers, state spending and construction drove a 0.1 per cent&nbsp;quarterly expansion, defying expectations of another contraction in Europe's largest economy, preliminary data showed on Thursday.

On an annual basis, gross domestic product expanded 0.5 per cent&nbsp;from July through September after a 0.3 per cent&nbsp;expansion in the previous three months, seasonally adjusted figures from the Federal Statistics Office showed.

"The German economy got away with a black eye: the technical recession could be avoided," Deka bank analyst Andreas Scheuerle said, but he added it was still too early to give the all-clear.

"Germany's economy is suffering from enormous global political uncertainty. Germany's flagship industry, the automobile sector, is not running smoothly anymore," he said.

Germany's manufacturers, whose exports have been a bedrock of the country's economic strength for decades, are struggling with weaker foreign demand, tariff disputes sparked by US&nbsp;President Donald Trump's 'America First' policies and business uncertainty linked to Britain's decision to leave the European Union.

The automobile sector, an important driver of overall growth, is also having trouble adjusting to stricter regulation following an emission cheating scandal and managing a broader shift away from combustion engines toward electric cars.

"We do not have a technical recession, but the growth numbers are still too weak," Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told ARD public television.

The Statistics Office said private households increased their spending from July through September while state spending and construction also supported overall growth.

Exports edged up on the quarter while imports remained broadly flat, the office said, suggesting that net trade could have been a positive impulse on the economy as well.

Alexander Krueger from Bankhaus Lampe said that he expected meagre growth rates in the coming quarters as the trade outlook remained clouded. "The economic slowdown in China, the global trade dispute and the Brexit chaos are all pointing to a weaker economic momentum," Krueger said.

The Statistics Office revised the quarterly GDP rate for the second quarter to a 0.2 per cent&nbsp;quarter-on-quarter contraction from a previously reported 0.1 per cent&nbsp;decline.

But it revised up the growth figures for the first quarter to a 0.5 per cent&nbsp;expansion from a 0.4 per cent&nbsp;increase reported earlier.

Analysts polled by Reuters for the third quarter had expected a 0.1 per cent&nbsp;contraction quarter-on-quarter and a 0.5 per cent&nbsp;expansion year-on-year in seasonally adjusted terms.

The German economy escaped a recession in the third quarter as consumers, state spending and construction drove a 0.1 per cent quarterly expansion, defying expectations of another contraction in Europe's largest economy, preliminary data showed on Thursday.

The German economy escaped a recession in the third quarter as consumers, state spending and construction drove a 0.1 per cent quarterly expansion, defying expectations of another contraction in Europe's largest economy, preliminary data showed on Thursday. On an annual basis, gross domestic product expanded 0.5 per cent from July through September after a 0.3 per cent expansion in the previous three months, seasonally adjusted figures from the Federal Statistics Office showed. "The German economy got away with a black eye: the technical recession could be avoided," Deka bank analyst Andreas Scheuerle said, but he added it was still too early to give the all-clear. "Germany's economy is suffering from enormous global political uncertainty. Germany's flagship industry, the automobile sector, is not running smoothly anymore," he said. Germany's manufacturers, whose exports have been a bedrock of the country's economic strength for decades, are struggling with weaker foreign demand, tariff disputes sparked by US President Donald Trump's 'America First' policies and business uncertainty linked to Britain's decision to leave the European Union. The automobile sector, an important driver of overall growth, is also having trouble adjusting to stricter regulation following an emission cheating scandal and managing a broader shift away from combustion engines toward electric cars. "We do not have a technical recession, but the growth numbers are still too weak," Economy Minister Peter Altmaier told ARD public television. The Statistics Office said private households increased their spending from July through September while state spending and construction also supported overall growth. Exports edged up on the quarter while imports remained broadly flat, the office said, suggesting that net trade could have been a positive impulse on the economy as well. Alexander Krueger from Bankhaus Lampe said that he expected meagre growth rates in the coming quarters as the trade outlook remained clouded. "The economic slowdown in China, the global trade dispute and the Brexit chaos are all pointing to a weaker economic momentum," Krueger said. The Statistics Office revised the quarterly GDP rate for the second quarter to a 0.2 per cent quarter-on-quarter contraction from a previously reported 0.1 per cent decline. But it revised up the growth figures for the first quarter to a 0.5 per cent expansion from a 0.4 per cent increase reported earlier. Analysts polled by Reuters for the third quarter had expected a 0.1 per cent contraction quarter-on-quarter and a 0.5 per cent expansion year-on-year in seasonally adjusted terms.

'Suffering' German economy dodges recession in third quarter

India's power demand fell 13.2 per cent&nbsp;in October from a year ago, posting its steepest monthly decline in over 12 years, government data showed, reflecting a deepening growth slowdown in Asia's third-largest economy.

The country needs electricity to fuel its expanding economy but a&nbsp;third decline in power consumption in as many months points to tapering industrial activity in the nation that aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024.

India's June quarter GDP grew at its weakest pace in six years as consumer demand and government spending slowed, and economists see the falling electricity demand as a reflection of a further slowdown.

"The slowdown seems to be deep-rooted, especially in the industrial sector. That would certainly increase the anxiety with regard to growth prospects in the current year," said N.R. Bhanumurthy, a professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi.

Consumption in heavily industrialized states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat led the decline. Last month, power demand in Maharashtra declined by 22.4 per cent&nbsp;and in Gujarat by 18.8 per cent, the data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) showed. Barring four small states in the country's north and the east, demand fell across regions, the data showed.

India's infrastructure output in September contracted 5.2 per cent, the worst in 14 years, adding to the worries of the government that has been unable to revive demand in the economy despite several steps in the last few months.

Its fuel demand growth - also seen by economists as an indicator of economic activity - is on track for the slowest pace in six years.

Economists said India's growth could fall as low as 5.8 per cent, dragged down by a slump in consumer demand and investment. India's central bank last month cut its growth forecast by 80 basis points for the year ending March 2020 to 6.1 per cent.

Slower economic activity has resulted in a fall in sales of everything from cars to cookies, with some large scale industries resorting to large job cuts.

India's automobile sector, for instance, has cut hundreds of thousands of jobs, citing an unprecedented decline in sales.

"Now we are talking about a sub 6 per cent&nbsp;growth for the current fiscal year," Bhanumurthy told Reuters.

The government, which has not revised its growth forecast of 7 per cent&nbsp;for the financial year, is expected to release data on economic growth by the end of this month. Information on electricity demand prior to January 2006 is not publicly available.

Populous states such as Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Madhya Pradesh (MP) saw demand fall - with MP's electricity requirement falling by over a fourth and UP seeing a decline of 8.3 per cent.

India's power demand fell 13.2 per cent in October from a year ago, posting its steepest monthly decline in over 12 years, government data showed, reflecting a deepening growth slowdown in Asia's third-largest economy.

India's power demand fell 13.2 per cent in October from a year ago, posting its steepest monthly decline in over 12 years, government data showed, reflecting a deepening growth slowdown in Asia's third-largest economy. The country needs electricity to fuel its expanding economy but a third decline in power consumption in as many months points to tapering industrial activity in the nation that aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024. India's June quarter GDP grew at its weakest pace in six years as consumer demand and government spending slowed, and economists see the falling electricity demand as a reflection of a further slowdown. "The slowdown seems to be deep-rooted, especially in the industrial sector. That would certainly increase the anxiety with regard to growth prospects in the current year," said N.R. Bhanumurthy, a professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi. Consumption in heavily industrialized states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat led the decline. Last month, power demand in Maharashtra declined by 22.4 per cent and in Gujarat by 18.8 per cent, the data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) showed. Barring four small states in the country's north and the east, demand fell across regions, the data showed. India's infrastructure output in September contracted 5.2 per cent, the worst in 14 years, adding to the worries of the government that has been unable to revive demand in the economy despite several steps in the last few months. Its fuel demand growth - also seen by economists as an indicator of economic activity - is on track for the slowest pace in six years. Economists said India's growth could fall as low as 5.8 per cent, dragged down by a slump in consumer demand and investment. India's central bank last month cut its growth forecast by 80 basis points for the year ending March 2020 to 6.1 per cent. Slower economic activity has resulted in a fall in sales of everything from cars to cookies, with some large scale industries resorting to large job cuts. India's automobile sector, for instance, has cut hundreds of thousands of jobs, citing an unprecedented decline in sales. "Now we are talking about a sub 6 per cent growth for the current fiscal year," Bhanumurthy told Reuters. The government, which has not revised its growth forecast of 7 per cent for the financial year, is expected to release data on economic growth by the end of this month. Information on electricity demand prior to January 2006 is not publicly available. Populous states such as Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Madhya Pradesh (MP) saw demand fall - with MP's electricity requirement falling by over a fourth and UP seeing a decline of 8.3 per cent.

India's electricity demand falls at fastest pace in at least 12 years

China's exports suffered their third month of decline in October, and while the drop was less than expected there were warnings Friday of more pain to come as the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/china-us-agree-tariff-rollback-if-phase-one-trade-deal-is-completed-260641">US trade war </a>rumbles on.

While tensions between the world's top two economies are beginning to ease, Beijing is struggling to get the engines of growth firing on all cylinders as demand for its goods around the world tails off.

In the latest sign of weakness, official data showed overseas shipments fell 0.9 per cent on-year last month, though that is much slower than the 3.2 per cent drop seen in September and much better than forecasts.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had tipped a 3.9 per cent plunge.

Imports sank for the sixth straight month in October, dropping 6.4 per cent, though that was also an improvement on the previous month and beat estimates.

China's trade surplus with the United States, a key point of anger in the White House, increased to $26.42 billion.

The economic powerhouses have been embroiled in a bruising trade war for more than a year, with punitive tariffs slapped on two-way trade worth hundreds of billions of dollars.

But markets have been buoyed in recent weeks by expectations the row, which has dragged on the global economy, could be easing as China and the US finalise a mini trade deal that is part of a wider agreement.

Hopes for an end to the stand-off were boosted Thursday when China said the two sides have agreed a plan to remove tariffs imposed on goods in stages if the phase one preliminary pact on which they are working is completed.

Ken Cheung Kin Tai, a senior strategist at Mizuho Bank said that the "less worrying trade figures should help suppress fears of weakening fourth-quarter China growth amid the trade war".

China's economic growth slowed to six percent in the third quarter, the weakest rate in 27 years.

However, analysts warned the subdued outlook worldwide will continue to weigh on trade.

"Slowing global growth and the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade tensions will continue to dampen trade prospects in China and demand for imports," said Tommy Wu of Oxford Economics.

He added that further policy easing and support from the government could be expected to stabilise growth.

"The contraction in both exports and imports eased more than expected last month," said Martin Rasmussen, China economist at Capital Economics.

"But even if the 'phase one' US-China trade deal crosses the finish line, it is unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds facing exporters and outbound shipments look set to remain weak in the coming months."

China's exports suffered their third month of decline in October, and while the drop was less than expected there were warnings Friday of more pain to come as the US trade war rumbles on.

China's exports suffered their third month of decline in October, and while the drop was less than expected there were warnings Friday of more pain to come as the US trade war rumbles on. While tensions between the world's top two economies are beginning to ease, Beijing is struggling to get the engines of growth firing on all cylinders as demand for its goods around the world tails off. In the latest sign of weakness, official data showed overseas shipments fell 0.9 per cent on-year last month, though that is much slower than the 3.2 per cent drop seen in September and much better than forecasts. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had tipped a 3.9 per cent plunge. Imports sank for the sixth straight month in October, dropping 6.4 per cent, though that was also an improvement on the previous month and beat estimates. China's trade surplus with the United States, a key point of anger in the White House, increased to $26.42 billion. The economic powerhouses have been embroiled in a bruising trade war for more than a year, with punitive tariffs slapped on two-way trade worth hundreds of billions of dollars. But markets have been buoyed in recent weeks by expectations the row, which has dragged on the global economy, could be easing as China and the US finalise a mini trade deal that is part of a wider agreement. Hopes for an end to the stand-off were boosted Thursday when China said the two sides have agreed a plan to remove tariffs imposed on goods in stages if the phase one preliminary pact on which they are working is completed. Ken Cheung Kin Tai, a senior strategist at Mizuho Bank said that the "less worrying trade figures should help suppress fears of weakening fourth-quarter China growth amid the trade war". China's economic growth slowed to six percent in the third quarter, the weakest rate in 27 years. However, analysts warned the subdued outlook worldwide will continue to weigh on trade. "Slowing global growth and the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade tensions will continue to dampen trade prospects in China and demand for imports," said Tommy Wu of Oxford Economics. He added that further policy easing and support from the government could be expected to stabilise growth. "The contraction in both exports and imports eased more than expected last month," said Martin Rasmussen, China economist at Capital Economics. "But even if the 'phase one' US-China trade deal crosses the finish line, it is unlikely to alleviate the main headwinds facing exporters and outbound shipments look set to remain weak in the coming months."

China export drop beats forecasts in October but more pain tipped

World food prices rose for the first time in five months in October, boosted by jumps in quotations for sugar and cereals, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday.

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 172.7 points in October, up 1.7 per cent&nbsp;on the previous month and 6.0 per cent&nbsp;year-on-year.

FAO also predicted that cereal production would be 2.704 billion tonnes in 2019, slightly lower than its last forecast.

The FAO sugar price index jumped 5.8 per cent&nbsp;from September levels, largely because of expectations of lower supplies in the year ahead following forecasts of large reductions in sugar output in India and Thailand.

The cereal price index rose 4.2 per cent, with wheat and maize export prices climbing on the back of reduced crop prospects in several major producing countries and "robust trade activity". By contrast, rice prices fell, hit by subdued demand and expectations of an abundant basmati harvest.

The vegetable oil price index increased 0.5 per cent&nbsp;to reach its highest level in more than a year, while the meat price index rose 0.9 per cent, driven by higher import demand, especially from China.

By contrast, the dairy price index dropped 0.7per cent&nbsp;in October, as lower quotations for cheese offset increases in those for skimmed and whole milk powders, FAO said.

FAO lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2019 by some 2 million tonnes, pegging world cereal output at 2.704 billion tonnes, but still up 1.8 per cent&nbsp;from 2018 levels.

The U.N. agency said worldwide coarse grain production in 2019 was seen at 1.425 billion tonnes, down 1.3 million on the previous forecast.

Wheat output was seen at 765 million tonnes, down nearly 1 million tonnes on the last outlook, but still on course to set a new record and up 4.5 per cent&nbsp;on 2018 levels.

The forecast for global rice production was put at 513.4 million tonnes, little changed on the previous forecast and slightly below 2018 levels.

World food prices rose for the first time in five months in October, boosted by jumps in quotations for sugar and cereals, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday.

World food prices rose for the first time in five months in October, boosted by jumps in quotations for sugar and cereals, the United Nations food agency said on Thursday. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) food price index, which measures monthly changes for a basket of cereals, oilseeds, dairy products, meat and sugar, averaged 172.7 points in October, up 1.7 per cent on the previous month and 6.0 per cent year-on-year. FAO also predicted that cereal production would be 2.704 billion tonnes in 2019, slightly lower than its last forecast. The FAO sugar price index jumped 5.8 per cent from September levels, largely because of expectations of lower supplies in the year ahead following forecasts of large reductions in sugar output in India and Thailand. The cereal price index rose 4.2 per cent, with wheat and maize export prices climbing on the back of reduced crop prospects in several major producing countries and "robust trade activity". By contrast, rice prices fell, hit by subdued demand and expectations of an abundant basmati harvest. The vegetable oil price index increased 0.5 per cent to reach its highest level in more than a year, while the meat price index rose 0.9 per cent, driven by higher import demand, especially from China. By contrast, the dairy price index dropped 0.7per cent in October, as lower quotations for cheese offset increases in those for skimmed and whole milk powders, FAO said. FAO lowered its forecast for global cereal production in 2019 by some 2 million tonnes, pegging world cereal output at 2.704 billion tonnes, but still up 1.8 per cent from 2018 levels. The U.N. agency said worldwide coarse grain production in 2019 was seen at 1.425 billion tonnes, down 1.3 million on the previous forecast. Wheat output was seen at 765 million tonnes, down nearly 1 million tonnes on the last outlook, but still on course to set a new record and up 4.5 per cent on 2018 levels. The forecast for global rice production was put at 513.4 million tonnes, little changed on the previous forecast and slightly below 2018 levels.

World food prices rise for first time in five months: United Nations Food Agency

India's&nbsp;gold&nbsp;demand&nbsp;is expected to fall to its&nbsp;lowest level in&nbsp;three&nbsp;years in 2019, the&nbsp;World&nbsp;Gold&nbsp;Council&nbsp;(WGC) said on Tuesday, as domestic&nbsp;prices&nbsp;climb to a&nbsp;record&nbsp;against a backdrop of falling earnings in rural areas, a key source of custom for the precious metal.

Gold&nbsp;demand&nbsp;in 2019 could drop 8 per cent&nbsp;from a&nbsp;year&nbsp;ago to around 700 tonnes, the&nbsp;lowest since 2016, said Somasundaram PR, the managing director of WGC's&nbsp;Indian operations. In a report, the WGC said&nbsp;India's&nbsp;gold&nbsp;consumption in the quarter ended September slumped nearly a third from a&nbsp;year&nbsp;ago to 123.9 tonnes.

The fall in consumption in the&nbsp;world's second-biggest market of the metal could brake global&nbsp;prices, up 17 per cent&nbsp;so far in 2019, but a drop in imports could also help ease the country's trade deficit, supporting the rupee.

"Along with higher&nbsp;prices,&nbsp;gold&nbsp;demand&nbsp;is getting affected by weak rural sentiment," said WGC official Somasundaram. "Excess monsoon rains have damaged crops," the official noted.

Two-thirds of&nbsp;India's&nbsp;gold&nbsp;demand&nbsp;comes from rural areas, where jewellery is a traditional store of wealth.

India&nbsp;received its highest monsoon rainfall in 25&nbsp;years during the June-September season, with rains continuing even in October, damaging summer-sown crops such as cotton, soybeans and pulses ready for harvesting.

In September, local&nbsp;gold&nbsp;futures&nbsp;hit&nbsp;an all-time high of 39,885 rupees&nbsp;per 10 grams. They have risen about 22 per cent&nbsp;so far in 2019, tracking a rally in global&nbsp;prices&nbsp;as well as reflecting a depreciation in the rupee.

A spike in domestic&nbsp;gold&nbsp;prices&nbsp;and a hike in the import duty slashed&nbsp;demand&nbsp;during the July-September, the WGC said. In the first week of July,&nbsp;India&nbsp;raised the import duty on&nbsp;gold&nbsp;to 12.5 per cent&nbsp;from 10 per cent.

In the key quarter ending December&nbsp;31,&nbsp;demand&nbsp;is likely to be&nbsp;lower than last&nbsp;year's 236.5 tonnes, Somasundaram said, but the drop is unlikely to be as steep as in the July-September quarter.

Demand&nbsp;usually rises in the October-December quarter due to the wedding season and festivals such as Diwali, when buying bullion is considered auspicious.

Many&nbsp;Indians are using the rally in&nbsp;prices&nbsp;to liquidate their&nbsp;gold&nbsp;ornaments, the WGC official said, forecasting scrap&nbsp;gold&nbsp;supplies in&nbsp;India&nbsp;could jump 38 per cent&nbsp;in 2019 to around 120 tonnes.

India's gold demand is expected to fall to its lowest level in three years in 2019, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Tuesday, as domestic prices climb to a record against a backdrop of falling earnings in rural areas, a key source of custom for the precious metal.

India's gold demand is expected to fall to its lowest level in three years in 2019, the World Gold Council (WGC) said on Tuesday, as domestic prices climb to a record against a backdrop of falling earnings in rural areas, a key source of custom for the precious metal. Gold demand in 2019 could drop 8 per cent from a year ago to around 700 tonnes, the lowest since 2016, said Somasundaram PR, the managing director of WGC's Indian operations. In a report, the WGC said India's gold consumption in the quarter ended September slumped nearly a third from a year ago to 123.9 tonnes. The fall in consumption in the world's second-biggest market of the metal could brake global prices, up 17 per cent so far in 2019, but a drop in imports could also help ease the country's trade deficit, supporting the rupee. "Along with higher prices, gold demand is getting affected by weak rural sentiment," said WGC official Somasundaram. "Excess monsoon rains have damaged crops," the official noted. Two-thirds of India's gold demand comes from rural areas, where jewellery is a traditional store of wealth. India received its highest monsoon rainfall in 25 years during the June-September season, with rains continuing even in October, damaging summer-sown crops such as cotton, soybeans and pulses ready for harvesting. In September, local gold futures hit an all-time high of 39,885 rupees per 10 grams. They have risen about 22 per cent so far in 2019, tracking a rally in global prices as well as reflecting a depreciation in the rupee. A spike in domestic gold prices and a hike in the import duty slashed demand during the July-September, the WGC said. In the first week of July, India raised the import duty on gold to 12.5 per cent from 10 per cent. In the key quarter ending December 31, demand is likely to be lower than last year's 236.5 tonnes, Somasundaram said, but the drop is unlikely to be as steep as in the July-September quarter. Demand usually rises in the October-December quarter due to the wedding season and festivals such as Diwali, when buying bullion is considered auspicious. Many Indians are using the rally in prices to liquidate their gold ornaments, the WGC official said, forecasting scrap gold supplies in India could jump 38 per cent in 2019 to around 120 tonnes.

India gold demand to hit three-year low as prices surge to record: World Gold Council

India's 2019-20&nbsp;sugar&nbsp;production should fall to 26.9 million tonnes, 1.3 million tonnes below an August projection, due to unfavourable weather conditions, broker and analyst INTL FCStone said on Thursday.

The production drop in India will lead to a larger global&nbsp;sugar&nbsp;supply deficit in 2019-20 of 7.7 million tonnes, a development seen as crucial in reducing large stocks in some producing countries that have been pressuring international prices, it added.

Previously, the broker had expected a global deficit of 5.9 million tonnes. It has also reduced its production estimate for the European Union by 200,000 tonnes to 16.5 million tonnes.

Estimates for another key producing country, Thailand, were unchanged from August at 13.2 million tonnes, which is a lower production than seen in the previous season (14.9 million tonnes).

"Thailand still has large stocks. We expect their exports to continue strong around 10 million tonnes per year," said Ligia Heise, a&nbsp;sugar&nbsp;analyst at INTL FCStone.

She said strong export activity from Thailand will pressure Brazilian export premiums for a while, preventing any short-term improvement in the&nbsp;sugar&nbsp;business for Brazil mills.

Indian production was impacted by excessive rains, which hurt current production but could be positive for the future crop.

"Reservoirs are full in India and we know that for cane producers their price does not matter much, what matter is climate conditions," said analyst Bruno Lima, during one of several seminars in Sao Paulo in the week when the city hosts the biannual&nbsp;Sugar&nbsp;Dinner.

"When conditions are good for planting, you can count on more&nbsp;sugar&nbsp;coming from India," he said, indicating that even if&nbsp;sugar&nbsp;prices improve with the current deficit, that upward move could be short-lived.

India's 2019-20 sugar production should fall to 26.9 million tonnes, 1.3 million tonnes below an August projection, due to unfavourable weather conditions, broker and analyst INTL FCStone said on Thursday.

India's 2019-20 sugar production should fall to 26.9 million tonnes, 1.3 million tonnes below an August projection, due to unfavourable weather conditions, broker and analyst INTL FCStone said on Thursday. The production drop in India will lead to a larger global sugar supply deficit in 2019-20 of 7.7 million tonnes, a development seen as crucial in reducing large stocks in some producing countries that have been pressuring international prices, it added. Previously, the broker had expected a global deficit of 5.9 million tonnes. It has also reduced its production estimate for the European Union by 200,000 tonnes to 16.5 million tonnes. Estimates for another key producing country, Thailand, were unchanged from August at 13.2 million tonnes, which is a lower production than seen in the previous season (14.9 million tonnes). "Thailand still has large stocks. We expect their exports to continue strong around 10 million tonnes per year," said Ligia Heise, a sugar analyst at INTL FCStone. She said strong export activity from Thailand will pressure Brazilian export premiums for a while, preventing any short-term improvement in the sugar business for Brazil mills. Indian production was impacted by excessive rains, which hurt current production but could be positive for the future crop. "Reservoirs are full in India and we know that for cane producers their price does not matter much, what matter is climate conditions," said analyst Bruno Lima, during one of several seminars in Sao Paulo in the week when the city hosts the biannual Sugar Dinner. "When conditions are good for planting, you can count on more sugar coming from India," he said, indicating that even if sugar prices improve with the current deficit, that upward move could be short-lived.

India's sugar output seen falling, global deficit rises: FCStone

Oil&nbsp;prices&nbsp;edged&nbsp;up&nbsp;on Friday after a difficult week but were still headed for&nbsp;losses of about 4 per cent, hit by a combination of&nbsp;rising&nbsp;global supply and uncertain future demand.

US&nbsp;crude&nbsp;rose for the first time in four days, gaining 18 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $54.36 a barrel by 0339 GMT. The contract was&nbsp;set&nbsp;for a&nbsp;weekly&nbsp;loss&nbsp;of more than 4 per cent.

Brent crude&nbsp;was&nbsp;up&nbsp;5 cents, or 0.1 per cent, at $59.67 a barrel, leaving it on track for a drop of nearly 4 per cent.

Worries over global economic growth, along with&nbsp;oil&nbsp;demand, continue to haunt the market as leaders from the United States and China struggle to end a 16-month dispute that has roiled&nbsp;trade&nbsp;between the world's top two economies.

"Concerns about the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/trump-new-location-for-united-states-china-trade-deal-signing-to-be-announced-soon-259106">US-China&nbsp;trade&nbsp;dispute </a>have come home to roost," said Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader.

The market received some respite from a run of poor economic data after an unexpected bounce in a private sector survey of Chinese manufacturing activity on Friday, which contrasted with the dour results of an official survey Thursday.

Japanese factory activity, however, sank to more than a three-year low in October, data showed on Friday, in a fresh warning sign for the world's third-largest economy.

US&nbsp;crude inventories&nbsp;rose by 5.7 million barrels in the week to October&nbsp;25, dwarfing analyst expectations for an increase of just 494,000 barrels.

A Reuters survey showed that&nbsp;oil&nbsp;prices&nbsp;are likely to remain under pressure this year and next. The poll of 51 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $64.16 a barrel in 2019 and $62.38 next year.

Meanwhile, US&nbsp;crude production soared nearly 600,000 barrels per day in August to a record of 12.4 million, buoyed by a 30 per cent&nbsp;increase in Gulf of Mexico&nbsp;output, according to government data released on Thursday.

Those numbers came as a Reuters survey found&nbsp;output&nbsp;from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recovered in October from an eight-year low, with rapid recovery in Saudi Arabian production from attacks on&nbsp;oil&nbsp;plants more than offsetting&nbsp;losses in Ecuador and voluntary curbs under a supply pact.

Oil prices edged up on Friday after a difficult week but were still headed for losses of about 4 per cent, hit by a combination of rising global supply and uncertain future demand.

Oil prices edged up on Friday after a difficult week but were still headed for losses of about 4 per cent, hit by a combination of rising global supply and uncertain future demand. US crude rose for the first time in four days, gaining 18 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $54.36 a barrel by 0339 GMT. The contract was set for a weekly loss of more than 4 per cent. Brent crude was up 5 cents, or 0.1 per cent, at $59.67 a barrel, leaving it on track for a drop of nearly 4 per cent. Worries over global economic growth, along with oil demand, continue to haunt the market as leaders from the United States and China struggle to end a 16-month dispute that has roiled trade between the world's top two economies. "Concerns about the US-China trade dispute have come home to roost," said Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader. The market received some respite from a run of poor economic data after an unexpected bounce in a private sector survey of Chinese manufacturing activity on Friday, which contrasted with the dour results of an official survey Thursday. Japanese factory activity, however, sank to more than a three-year low in October, data showed on Friday, in a fresh warning sign for the world's third-largest economy. US crude inventories rose by 5.7 million barrels in the week to October 25, dwarfing analyst expectations for an increase of just 494,000 barrels. A Reuters survey showed that oil prices are likely to remain under pressure this year and next. The poll of 51 economists and analysts forecast Brent crude would average $64.16 a barrel in 2019 and $62.38 next year. Meanwhile, US crude production soared nearly 600,000 barrels per day in August to a record of 12.4 million, buoyed by a 30 per cent increase in Gulf of Mexico output, according to government data released on Thursday. Those numbers came as a Reuters survey found output from Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) recovered in October from an eight-year low, with rapid recovery in Saudi Arabian production from attacks on oil plants more than offsetting losses in Ecuador and voluntary curbs under a supply pact.

Oil prices edge up, but set for big weekly loss on rising output, trade woes

Two- and three-wheeler manufacturer Bajaj Auto on Friday said that it sold 4.63 lakh vehicles in October, down 9 per cent in the year-ago period.

In October 2018, it had sold 5.06 lakh units, it said in a statement.

Domestic sales of motorcycles fell by 14 per cent to 2.42 lakh units from 2.81 lakh in October last year. But exports rose by 3 per cent to 1.56 lakh units from 1.51 lakh.

For the April to October period, motorcycle sales work out to 13.74 lakh units in the domestic market, down 12 per cent from 15.68 lakh units, and 10.9 lakh units in export markets, up 7 per cent from 10.2 lakh units year-on-year.

In commercial vehicles, domestic sales slipped by 5 per cent to 36,260 units last month from 38,360 in October last year.

Exports too fell by 21 per cent to 28,035 units from 35,354 units.

For the April to October period, domestic sales totalled 2.3 lakh units, down 6 per cent from 2.4 lakh units, while exports dropped by 21 per cent to 1.87 lakh units from 2.38 lakh units year-on-year.

Two- and three-wheeler manufacturer Bajaj Auto on Friday said that it sold 4.63 lakh vehicles in October, down 9 per cent in the year-ago period. In October 2018, it had sold 5.

Two- and three-wheeler manufacturer Bajaj Auto on Friday said that it sold 4.63 lakh vehicles in October, down 9 per cent in the year-ago period. In October 2018, it had sold 5.06 lakh units, it said in a statement. Domestic sales of motorcycles fell by 14 per cent to 2.42 lakh units from 2.81 lakh in October last year. But exports rose by 3 per cent to 1.56 lakh units from 1.51 lakh. For the April to October period, motorcycle sales work out to 13.74 lakh units in the domestic market, down 12 per cent from 15.68 lakh units, and 10.9 lakh units in export markets, up 7 per cent from 10.2 lakh units year-on-year. In commercial vehicles, domestic sales slipped by 5 per cent to 36,260 units last month from 38,360 in October last year. Exports too fell by 21 per cent to 28,035 units from 35,354 units. For the April to October period, domestic sales totalled 2.3 lakh units, down 6 per cent from 2.4 lakh units, while exports dropped by 21 per cent to 1.87 lakh units from 2.38 lakh units year-on-year.

Bajaj Auto reports 9% fall in vehicle sales during October

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/samsung-electronics-ends-mobile-phone-production-in-china-253273">Samsung&nbsp;Electronics</a>, the world's largest smartphone and memory chip maker, saw&nbsp;net&nbsp;profits slump by more than half in the&nbsp;third quarter, it said Thursday, hit by an enduring downturn in the global chip market.

Net&nbsp;profits in the three months to September were $5.40 billion, it said in a statement,&nbsp;down&nbsp;52 per cent year-on-year.

"Earnings from the memory business slumped significantly year-on-year as memory chip prices continued its downward trend," the company said.

The firm is the flagship subsidiary of the giant&nbsp;Samsung&nbsp;Group, by far the largest of the family-controlled conglomerates known as "chaebols" that dominate business in the world's 11th-largest economy.

But in recent months it has been battered by falling chip prices as global supply increases.

Samsung&nbsp;also faces challenges from the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/united-states-wants-china-trade-deal-in-same-time-frame-despite-apec-summit-cancellation-258895">US-China trade war </a>and tough export restrictions imposed by Tokyo on key supplies as part of a dispute with Seoul over wartime forced labour.

The South Korean tech titan leads the global smartphone market with a 23 per cent share, trailed by Chinese competitors Huawei and Oppo, with Apple in fourth place, according to sales tracker IHS Markit.

The premium smartphone market has grown fiercely competitive and overall sales have cooled as a lack of major innovation has seen buyers waiting longer before upgrading to new models.

But&nbsp;Samsung&nbsp;said profits in its mobile division had been boosted by strong sales of the Galaxy Note 10 and its A series devices, along with bigger margins for mass-market models.&nbsp;

"The business also expanded its 5G product offerings and launched the Galaxy Fold, demonstrating&nbsp;Samsung's technology leadership," it added.

Samsung&nbsp;released its top-end S10 5G smartphone earlier this year after South Korea won the global race to commercially launch the world's first nationwide 5G network.

But in April it was embarrassingly forced to delay the release of the hotly anticipated Galaxy Fold after reviewers provided with early devices reported screen problems within days of use.

In another setback, earlier this month it also acknowledged a major flaw with its fingerprint system allowing non-users to open other people's top-end smartphones.

But Tom Kang, research director at Counterpoint Research, noted&nbsp;Samsung's flagship Note 10 device had sold far better than&nbsp;previous models,&nbsp;and that the firm would benefit from restrictions imposed by Washington on its key Chinese competitor.&nbsp;

"From September, Huawei's devices have been unable to have Google mobile services," he told AFP.&nbsp;

"This is&nbsp;also likely to continue giving&nbsp;Samsung's mobile phones a significant advantage.&nbsp;Samsung&nbsp;phones will appeal to high-end users."

Operating&nbsp;profit&nbsp;plunged 55.7 per cent to 7.8 trillion won in the&nbsp;third quarter, the firm said, while sales fell 5.3 per cent to 62 trillion won.&nbsp;

But analysts voiced optimism for the coming months, noting that falling inventory levels for semiconductors,&nbsp;which account for more than half of&nbsp;Samsung's&nbsp;profit,&nbsp;will help stabilise chip prices after double-digit drops this year.

Adding to the firm's difficulties, the retrial of its vice chairman Lee Jae-yong began last week over a sprawling corruption scandal that could see him return to prison.

He is not being held in custody during the trial, but it is expected to last for months and a guilty verdict could deprive the firm of its top decision-maker.

Samsung&nbsp;shares were up 1.79 per cent in morning trade.&nbsp;

&nbsp;

Samsung Electronics, the world's largest smartphone and memory chip maker, saw net profits slump by more than half in the third quarter, it said Thursday, hit by an enduring downturn in the global chip market.

Samsung Electronics, the world's largest smartphone and memory chip maker, saw net profits slump by more than half in the third quarter, it said Thursday, hit by an enduring downturn in the global chip market. Net profits in the three months to September were $5.40 billion, it said in a statement, down 52 per cent year-on-year. "Earnings from the memory business slumped significantly year-on-year as memory chip prices continued its downward trend," the company said. The firm is the flagship subsidiary of the giant Samsung Group, by far the largest of the family-controlled conglomerates known as "chaebols" that dominate business in the world's 11th-largest economy. But in recent months it has been battered by falling chip prices as global supply increases. Samsung also faces challenges from the US-China trade war and tough export restrictions imposed by Tokyo on key supplies as part of a dispute with Seoul over wartime forced labour. The South Korean tech titan leads the global smartphone market with a 23 per cent share, trailed by Chinese competitors Huawei and Oppo, with Apple in fourth place, according to sales tracker IHS Markit. The premium smartphone market has grown fiercely competitive and overall sales have cooled as a lack of major innovation has seen buyers waiting longer before upgrading to new models. But Samsung said profits in its mobile division had been boosted by strong sales of the Galaxy Note 10 and its A series devices, along with bigger margins for mass-market models. "The business also expanded its 5G product offerings and launched the Galaxy Fold, demonstrating Samsung's technology leadership," it added. Samsung released its top-end S10 5G smartphone earlier this year after South Korea won the global race to commercially launch the world's first nationwide 5G network. But in April it was embarrassingly forced to delay the release of the hotly anticipated Galaxy Fold after reviewers provided with early devices reported screen problems within days of use. In another setback, earlier this month it also acknowledged a major flaw with its fingerprint system allowing non-users to open other people's top-end smartphones. But Tom Kang, research director at Counterpoint Research, noted Samsung's flagship Note 10 device had sold far better than previous models, and that the firm would benefit from restrictions imposed by Washington on its key Chinese competitor. "From September, Huawei's devices have been unable to have Google mobile services," he told AFP. "This is also likely to continue giving Samsung's mobile phones a significant advantage. Samsung phones will appeal to high-end users." Operating profit plunged 55.7 per cent to 7.8 trillion won in the third quarter, the firm said, while sales fell 5.3 per cent to 62 trillion won. But analysts voiced optimism for the coming months, noting that falling inventory levels for semiconductors, which account for more than half of Samsung's profit, will help stabilise chip prices after double-digit drops this year. Adding to the firm's difficulties, the retrial of its vice chairman Lee Jae-yong began last week over a sprawling corruption scandal that could see him return to prison. He is not being held in custody during the trial, but it is expected to last for months and a guilty verdict could deprive the firm of its top decision-maker. Samsung shares were up 1.79 per cent in morning trade.

Samsung Electronics third-quarter net profit slumps 52%

China will closely monitor the US&nbsp;"entity list", which has led to sanctions on a few Chinese tech firms, and take measures to safeguard its rights and interests, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said.

Firms on the US&nbsp;"entity list" are barred from buying US&nbsp;parts and components without US&nbsp;government approval.

Huang Libin, a spokesman for the MIIT, said on Tuesday that China will not close its doors and blindly rely on Chinese-made technology, and it will further open up the telecommunications, internet and auto sectors to foreign investment.

"We will look at the trade friction between China and the United States with an open mind and a big heart," he told reporters during a briefing.

"We will not blindly emphasize 'self-reliance', and not decouple from the development of international industries."

China will closely monitor the US "entity list", which has led to sanctions on a few Chinese tech firms, and take measures to safeguard its rights and interests, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said.

China will closely monitor the US "entity list", which has led to sanctions on a few Chinese tech firms, and take measures to safeguard its rights and interests, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) said. Firms on the US "entity list" are barred from buying US parts and components without US government approval. Huang Libin, a spokesman for the MIIT, said on Tuesday that China will not close its doors and blindly rely on Chinese-made technology, and it will further open up the telecommunications, internet and auto sectors to foreign investment. "We will look at the trade friction between China and the United States with an open mind and a big heart," he told reporters during a briefing. "We will not blindly emphasize 'self-reliance', and not decouple from the development of international industries."

China will monitor US entities list, further open to foreign investment

Hong&nbsp;Kong's&nbsp;Cathay&nbsp;Pacific&nbsp;Airways Ltd&nbsp;on Friday lowered its&nbsp;expectations&nbsp;for&nbsp;full-year&nbsp;profit&nbsp;due to "incredibly challenging" conditions in its home market racked by <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/hong-kong-braces-for-weekend-of-fresh-anti-government-protests-256600">anti-government&nbsp;protests</a>&nbsp;that it expected to persist for the rest of 2019.

The airline reported a 7.1 per cent&nbsp;drop in passenger numbers for the month of September as travellers avoided&nbsp;Hong&nbsp;Kong&nbsp;due to widespread and sometimes violent&nbsp;protests, and said its second-half financial results were likely to be below the first half.

Cathay, which is trying to complete a three-year&nbsp;financial turnaround plan, has become the biggest corporate casualty of the&nbsp;Hong&nbsp;Kong&nbsp;protests&nbsp;after China demanded it suspend staff involved in, or supporting, the demonstrations that have plunged the former British colony into a political crisis.

The airline in August reported a HK$1.347 billion first-half&nbsp;profit. At that time,&nbsp;Cathay&nbsp;said second-half&nbsp;profit&nbsp;was likely to be higher than the first-half, as is typically the case for the airline, based on seasonality.

The consensus estimate before Friday's update was for the airline to report a&nbsp;full-year&nbsp;profit&nbsp;of HK$3.2 billion, according to 11 analysts polled by Refinitiv, although some last month predicted a poor second half.

Cathay&nbsp;shares were trading 1.4 per cent&nbsp;lower at 0510 GMT.

"We continue to see a significant shortfall in inbound bookings for the remainder of 2019 as compared to the same snapshot last&nbsp;year,"&nbsp;Cathay&nbsp;Chief Customer and Commercial Officer Ronald Lam said in a statement on Friday.

Cathay&nbsp;last month said it would cut capacity for the upcoming winter season.

BOCOM International analyst Luya You on Friday said further cuts might be needed in 2020 and even 2021 given there was no way of determining a timeline for when the political turmoil in&nbsp;Hong&nbsp;Kong&nbsp;would be resolved.

Inbound traffic to&nbsp;Hong&nbsp;Kong&nbsp;was down 38 per cent&nbsp;in September, unchanged from August, with demand from the mainland Chinese market hit especially hard, the airline said.

The 7.1 per cent&nbsp;fall in passenger numbers in September was better than the 11.3 per cent&nbsp;drop in August, but&nbsp;Cathay&nbsp;said an increasing reliance on transit passengers had affected its yields - a measure of the average fare paid per kilometre per passenger.

BOCOM's You said even if passenger numbers outside China appeared to stabilise in the coming months, that was likely to come at the cost of significantly lower fares.

Cathay&nbsp;also said cargo volumes fell 4.4 per cent&nbsp;in September, but that there were signs of improvement as it headed into air freight's traditional high-demand season.

Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd on Friday lowered its expectations for full-year profit due to "incredibly challenging" conditions in its home market racked by anti-government protests that it expected to persist for the rest of 2019.

Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd on Friday lowered its expectations for full-year profit due to "incredibly challenging" conditions in its home market racked by anti-government protests that it expected to persist for the rest of 2019. The airline reported a 7.1 per cent drop in passenger numbers for the month of September as travellers avoided Hong Kong due to widespread and sometimes violent protests, and said its second-half financial results were likely to be below the first half. Cathay, which is trying to complete a three-year financial turnaround plan, has become the biggest corporate casualty of the Hong Kong protests after China demanded it suspend staff involved in, or supporting, the demonstrations that have plunged the former British colony into a political crisis. The airline in August reported a HK$1.347 billion first-half profit. At that time, Cathay said second-half profit was likely to be higher than the first-half, as is typically the case for the airline, based on seasonality. The consensus estimate before Friday's update was for the airline to report a full-year profit of HK$3.2 billion, according to 11 analysts polled by Refinitiv, although some last month predicted a poor second half. Cathay shares were trading 1.4 per cent lower at 0510 GMT. "We continue to see a significant shortfall in inbound bookings for the remainder of 2019 as compared to the same snapshot last year," Cathay Chief Customer and Commercial Officer Ronald Lam said in a statement on Friday. Cathay last month said it would cut capacity for the upcoming winter season. BOCOM International analyst Luya You on Friday said further cuts might be needed in 2020 and even 2021 given there was no way of determining a timeline for when the political turmoil in Hong Kong would be resolved. Inbound traffic to Hong Kong was down 38 per cent in September, unchanged from August, with demand from the mainland Chinese market hit especially hard, the airline said. The 7.1 per cent fall in passenger numbers in September was better than the 11.3 per cent drop in August, but Cathay said an increasing reliance on transit passengers had affected its yields - a measure of the average fare paid per kilometre per passenger. BOCOM's You said even if passenger numbers outside China appeared to stabilise in the coming months, that was likely to come at the cost of significantly lower fares. Cathay also said cargo volumes fell 4.4 per cent in September, but that there were signs of improvement as it headed into air freight's traditional high-demand season.

Cathay Pacific lowers full-year profit expectations as Hong Kong protests bite

Oil&nbsp;prices&nbsp;were stable on Friday ahead of&nbsp;data&nbsp;that analysts say could show&nbsp;China, the world's largest&nbsp;oil&nbsp;importer, just recorded its <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/chinas-q3-gdp-growth-slows-to-6-slowest-in-27-years-256577">weakest quarter of economic&nbsp;growth</a>&nbsp;in nearly three decades, dragged down by a <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/china-says-hopes-to-reach-phased-trade-pact-with-us-as-early-as-possible-256449">trade dispute</a> with the United States.

Global benchmark Brent crude&nbsp;oil&nbsp;futures fell by 9 cents, 0.2 per cent, to $59.82 a barrel by 0039 GMT.

US&nbsp;West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude&nbsp;futures were up by 4 cents, or 0.07 per cent, to $53.97 per barrel.

Analysts polled by Reuters expected&nbsp;China's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 6.1 per cent&nbsp;in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 1992, the earliest quarterly&nbsp;data&nbsp;on record.

The Chinese government is due to release its third-quarter&nbsp;GDP&nbsp;data&nbsp;at 0200 GMT, along with other indicators for September.

With&nbsp;all&nbsp;eyes&nbsp;on the upcoming numbers, analysts expect weaker economic readings to add to pressure on Beijing to step up stimulus measures.

"The release of fixed asset investment and industrial activity (data) in&nbsp;China&nbsp;will set the tone in commodity markets," ANZ Bank predicted in a note.

Adding to downward pressure, US&nbsp;crude&nbsp;oil&nbsp;stockpiles surged last week as refinery output dropped to a two-year low, while gasoline and distillate fuel inventories decreased, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday.

US&nbsp;crude inventories increased by 9.3 million barrels in the week ended October 11, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 2.9 million barrels.

Elsewhere, the joint technical committee monitoring a global deal to cut output between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partners, including Russia, found compliance with cuts for September stood at 236 per cent, according to four OPEC sources.

OPEC and its&nbsp;allies have agreed to limit their&nbsp;oil&nbsp;production by 1.2 million barrels per day&nbsp;until March 2020.

&nbsp;

Oil prices were stable on Friday ahead of data that analysts say could show China, the world's largest oil importer, just recorded its weakest quarter of economic growth in nearly three decades, dragged down by a trade dispute with the United States.

Oil prices were stable on Friday ahead of data that analysts say could show China, the world's largest oil importer, just recorded its weakest quarter of economic growth in nearly three decades, dragged down by a trade dispute with the United States. Global benchmark Brent crude oil futures fell by 9 cents, 0.2 per cent, to $59.82 a barrel by 0039 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up by 4 cents, or 0.07 per cent, to $53.97 per barrel. Analysts polled by Reuters expected China's gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 6.1 per cent in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, the slowest pace since the first quarter of 1992, the earliest quarterly data on record. The Chinese government is due to release its third-quarter GDP data at 0200 GMT, along with other indicators for September. With all eyes on the upcoming numbers, analysts expect weaker economic readings to add to pressure on Beijing to step up stimulus measures. "The release of fixed asset investment and industrial activity (data) in China will set the tone in commodity markets," ANZ Bank predicted in a note. Adding to downward pressure, US crude oil stockpiles surged last week as refinery output dropped to a two-year low, while gasoline and distillate fuel inventories decreased, the Energy Information Administration said on Thursday. US crude inventories increased by 9.3 million barrels in the week ended October 11, compared with analysts' expectations for an increase of 2.9 million barrels. Elsewhere, the joint technical committee monitoring a global deal to cut output between the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and partners, including Russia, found compliance with cuts for September stood at 236 per cent, according to four OPEC sources. OPEC and its allies have agreed to limit their oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day until March 2020.

Oil prices steady, all eyes on data seen showing China GDP growth slowdown

India plans to take more steps to boost consumer demand including injecting liquidity through banks and simplifying personal taxes, a top government economic adviser said on Friday, in a bid to raise economic growth from six-year lows.

Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Chief Economic Adviser at the Finance Ministry, said the government had slashed corporate taxes to attract investment and was looking for ways to boost consumer demand to support that investment.

"In the short-run, we are taking steps to increase consumption so that anticipating that consumption, investment also goes up," he told Reuters in an interview.

One of the measures on the table is aimed at easing personal taxation and making the whole tax administration simpler. The government is also considering the report of a task force to bring India's six-decades-old tax legislation more into line with those of other countries.

Subramanian said the government planned to make public the recommendations of the task force.

"The direct tax code task force has submitted its report," he said, adding that the steps that have already been taken to streamline the tax administration are likely to help in improving the tax buoyancy.

Last month Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman <a href="https://www.wionews.com/opinions/corporate-tax-cut-may-act-as-a-steroid-for-the-economy-254318">cut corporate tax </a>rates from over 30 per cent&nbsp;to 25 per cent, and to 15 per cent&nbsp;for new manufacturing companies, putting it on a par or even ahead of some of its Asian peers.

That landmark move has raised hopes that the government might consider similar cuts to personal taxes to put more money into the hands of consumers and especially the middle class who form the core of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling group.

A source in the finance ministry said the task force's recommendations - which include cuts in the income tax rate by up to 10 per cent&nbsp;- could be announced even before the presentation in February of the annual budget for fiscal 2020/21, which starts in April.

"Timing of the implementation is a political call," said the source, adding that officials have already held discussions on the issue.

Growth in April-June slipped to 5 per cent, its slowest pace since 2013. The International Monetary Fund has cut its growth forecast to 6.1 per cent&nbsp;for this fiscal year from an initial 7 per cent, citing a slowdown in domestic and global demand.

New Delhi has also been trying to boost domestic growth through an infrastructure package and a new loan program organised with the banking sector that has doled out loans worth over 800 billion rupees.

Subramanian said the government has asked the banks to buy out assets from the crisis-hit non-banking finance companies to improve liquidity in the market.

"The government will do all that it takes to take back the growth on the high trajectory."

Referring to banking reforms, he said, the government was focussed on the merger of some state banks, aiming to cut down the number of state banks to 12 from 27 in 2017, and has asked them to take corporate default cases to bankruptcy courts only above a threshold limit.

India plans to take more steps to boost consumer demand including injecting liquidity through banks and simplifying personal taxes, a top government economic adviser said on Friday, in a bid to raise economic growth from six-year lows.

India plans to take more steps to boost consumer demand including injecting liquidity through banks and simplifying personal taxes, a top government economic adviser said on Friday, in a bid to raise economic growth from six-year lows. Krishnamurthy Subramanian, Chief Economic Adviser at the Finance Ministry, said the government had slashed corporate taxes to attract investment and was looking for ways to boost consumer demand to support that investment. "In the short-run, we are taking steps to increase consumption so that anticipating that consumption, investment also goes up," he told Reuters in an interview. One of the measures on the table is aimed at easing personal taxation and making the whole tax administration simpler. The government is also considering the report of a task force to bring India's six-decades-old tax legislation more into line with those of other countries. Subramanian said the government planned to make public the recommendations of the task force. "The direct tax code task force has submitted its report," he said, adding that the steps that have already been taken to streamline the tax administration are likely to help in improving the tax buoyancy. Last month Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman cut corporate tax rates from over 30 per cent to 25 per cent, and to 15 per cent for new manufacturing companies, putting it on a par or even ahead of some of its Asian peers. That landmark move has raised hopes that the government might consider similar cuts to personal taxes to put more money into the hands of consumers and especially the middle class who form the core of Prime Minister Narendra Modi's ruling group. A source in the finance ministry said the task force's recommendations - which include cuts in the income tax rate by up to 10 per cent - could be announced even before the presentation in February of the annual budget for fiscal 2020/21, which starts in April. "Timing of the implementation is a political call," said the source, adding that officials have already held discussions on the issue. Growth in April-June slipped to 5 per cent, its slowest pace since 2013. The International Monetary Fund has cut its growth forecast to 6.1 per cent for this fiscal year from an initial 7 per cent, citing a slowdown in domestic and global demand. New Delhi has also been trying to boost domestic growth through an infrastructure package and a new loan program organised with the banking sector that has doled out loans worth over 800 billion rupees. Subramanian said the government has asked the banks to buy out assets from the crisis-hit non-banking finance companies to improve liquidity in the market. "The government will do all that it takes to take back the growth on the high trajectory." Referring to banking reforms, he said, the government was focussed on the merger of some state banks, aiming to cut down the number of state banks to 12 from 27 in 2017, and has asked them to take corporate default cases to bankruptcy courts only above a threshold limit.

India to take more steps to boost consumer demand, growth: Chief Economic Adviser

Oil&nbsp;prices&nbsp;eased on Thursday after industry data showed a&nbsp;larger-than-expected&nbsp;build-up in&nbsp;stocks in the United States, although losses were limited by <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/additional-tariffs-on-china-may-be-imposed-in-case-of-a-no-deal-us-treasury-secretary-256016">comments by&nbsp;US&nbsp;Treasury</a> Secretary Steven Mnuchin on a&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/united-states-china-trade-mini-deal-being-papered-trump-256340">US-China trade deal.</a>

Global benchmark Brent crude&nbsp;oil&nbsp;futures was down by 47 cents, or 0.8 per cent, at $58.95 a barrel by 0330 GMT.

US&nbsp;crude&nbsp;oil&nbsp;futures were down 48 cents, or 0.9 per cent, at $52.88 after earlier dropping more than 1 per cent&nbsp;to a session low of $52.76 earlier.

US&nbsp;crude inventories soared by 10.5 million barrels to 432.5 million barrels in the week to October&nbsp;11, according to the American Petroleum Institute's weekly report, published ahead of official government&nbsp;stocks data due on Thursday.&nbsp;

Analysts had estimated&nbsp;US&nbsp;crude inventories rose around 2.8 million barrels last week.

"An enormous&nbsp;US&nbsp;inventory&nbsp;build&nbsp;hits at precisely the wrong moment when the markets are overly focused on demand devastation due to the latest run of weaker global economic data," Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader, said in a note on Thursday.&nbsp;

If confirmed by the government data, the&nbsp;build-up would be the biggest&nbsp;US&nbsp;inventory swell since February, 2017, Innes said.

It comes amid concerns about the global economy - and therefore&nbsp;oil&nbsp;demand - as data from the United States showed retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in September. That followed earlier data showing a moderation in job growth and services sector activity.

Still, hopes of a potential&nbsp;US-China trade deal helped offset&nbsp;oil&nbsp;prices&nbsp;losses after Mnuchin said&nbsp;US&nbsp;and Chinese trade negotiators are working on nailing down a Phase 1 trade deal text for their presidents to sign next month.

"Overall, we are seeing a more constructive picture both in terms of the demand side of the equation with the partial agreement from the&nbsp;US&nbsp;(and) also from a technical point of view. (Prices) are at close to the bottom end of trading range rather than the top," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at brokerage CMC Markets in Sydney.

But short-term pressure on&nbsp;oil&nbsp;prices&nbsp;will likely remain until&nbsp;US&nbsp;government data on&nbsp;oil&nbsp;inventory is out later on Thursday, he added.

Oil prices eased on Thursday after industry data showed a larger-than-expected build-up in stocks in the United States, although losses were limited by comments by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on a US-China trade deal.

Oil prices eased on Thursday after industry data showed a larger-than-expected build-up in stocks in the United States, although losses were limited by comments by US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin on a US-China trade deal. Global benchmark Brent crude oil futures was down by 47 cents, or 0.8 per cent, at $58.95 a barrel by 0330 GMT. US crude oil futures were down 48 cents, or 0.9 per cent, at $52.88 after earlier dropping more than 1 per cent to a session low of $52.76 earlier. US crude inventories soared by 10.5 million barrels to 432.5 million barrels in the week to October 11, according to the American Petroleum Institute's weekly report, published ahead of official government stocks data due on Thursday. Analysts had estimated US crude inventories rose around 2.8 million barrels last week. "An enormous US inventory build hits at precisely the wrong moment when the markets are overly focused on demand devastation due to the latest run of weaker global economic data," Stephen Innes, Asia Pacific market strategist at AxiTrader, said in a note on Thursday. If confirmed by the government data, the build-up would be the biggest US inventory swell since February, 2017, Innes said. It comes amid concerns about the global economy - and therefore oil demand - as data from the United States showed retail sales fell for the first time in seven months in September. That followed earlier data showing a moderation in job growth and services sector activity. Still, hopes of a potential US-China trade deal helped offset oil prices losses after Mnuchin said US and Chinese trade negotiators are working on nailing down a Phase 1 trade deal text for their presidents to sign next month. "Overall, we are seeing a more constructive picture both in terms of the demand side of the equation with the partial agreement from the US (and) also from a technical point of view. (Prices) are at close to the bottom end of trading range rather than the top," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at brokerage CMC Markets in Sydney. But short-term pressure on oil prices will likely remain until US government data on oil inventory is out later on Thursday, he added.

Oil prices fall on signs of large United States stock build

Food group Nestle&nbsp;plans to return up to 20 billion Swiss francs&nbsp;to shareholders over the next two years and is making changes to its struggling waters business after organic sales growth dipped to 3.7 per cent&nbsp;in the third quarter from 3.9 per cent&nbsp;in the previous quarter.

Packaged food makers are branching out into new areas like plant-based meat alternatives or products made from all-natural ingredients to boost growth in an otherwise sluggish market.

Nestle's organic growth, which strips out currency swings and acquisitions, slowed in the third quarter as prices for its products fell slightly, the maker of KitKat chocolate bars, Maggi noodles and vegan burgers said in a statement on Thursday.

It did, however, confirm its outlook for organic sales growth of around 3.5 per cent&nbsp;and an operating margin of 17.5 per cent&nbsp;or above for the full year, pointing to strong momentum in the United States and its petcare business.

It said it had decided to distribute up to 20 billion francs to shareholders over the period 2020 to 2022, primarily in the form of share buybacks, but special dividends were also possible.

"Should any sizable acquisitions take place during this period, the amount of cash to be distributed to shareholders will be adjusted accordingly," Nestle said.

In a separate statement, Nestle announced it would no longer manage its waters business, which posted weak organic growth of 0.5 per cent for the nine-month period, as a global business. It will instead integrate it into its three geographical zones.

Maurizio Patarnello, head of the waters business, will leave the executive board at the end of this year.

Nestle appointed Sanjay Bahadur, head of acquisitions and business development, to lead a new group strategy and business development function that should help identify internal and external strategic growth opportunities.

Food group Nestle plans to return up to 20 billion Swiss francs to shareholders over the next two years and is making changes to its struggling waters business after organic sales growth dipped to 3.

Food group Nestle plans to return up to 20 billion Swiss francs to shareholders over the next two years and is making changes to its struggling waters business after organic sales growth dipped to 3.7 per cent in the third quarter from 3.9 per cent in the previous quarter. Packaged food makers are branching out into new areas like plant-based meat alternatives or products made from all-natural ingredients to boost growth in an otherwise sluggish market. Nestle's organic growth, which strips out currency swings and acquisitions, slowed in the third quarter as prices for its products fell slightly, the maker of KitKat chocolate bars, Maggi noodles and vegan burgers said in a statement on Thursday. It did, however, confirm its outlook for organic sales growth of around 3.5 per cent and an operating margin of 17.5 per cent or above for the full year, pointing to strong momentum in the United States and its petcare business. It said it had decided to distribute up to 20 billion francs to shareholders over the period 2020 to 2022, primarily in the form of share buybacks, but special dividends were also possible. "Should any sizable acquisitions take place during this period, the amount of cash to be distributed to shareholders will be adjusted accordingly," Nestle said. In a separate statement, Nestle announced it would no longer manage its waters business, which posted weak organic growth of 0.5 per cent for the nine-month period, as a global business. It will instead integrate it into its three geographical zones. Maurizio Patarnello, head of the waters business, will leave the executive board at the end of this year. Nestle appointed Sanjay Bahadur, head of acquisitions and business development, to lead a new group strategy and business development function that should help identify internal and external strategic growth opportunities.

Nestle revamps waters business as organic growth slows

British shoppers grew more cautious about their spending in the three months to September despite rising wages, official figures showed on Thursday, raising concerns about the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/uk-economy-starts-to-shows-cracks-under-brexit-and-global-strains-254409">health of the economy</a> in the run-up to Brexit.

Consumer spending has been the biggest driver of British economic growth since June 2016's referendum to leave the European Union, but there have been increasing signs that this is starting to soften.

Looking at the third quarter as a whole, which strips out monthly volatility, quarterly sales growth held steady at 0.6 per cent&nbsp;while the annual pace of expansion dropped to 3.1 per cent&nbsp;from 3.6 per cent&nbsp;in the second quarter, the weakest since the late 2018.

Stripping out inflation adjustments, growth in retail spending was the weakest in more than three years.

Sterling showed little reaction to the data, with markets focused on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson can broker a<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/uks-johnson-says-great-new-deal-reached-on-brexit-256464"> Brexit deal</a> that is acceptable both to Brussels and Britain's parliament before the country is due to leave on October&nbsp;31.

"September's retail sales figures were perhaps a bit of a relief given the intense Brexit uncertainty, but were hardly a picture of strength," economist Ruth Gregory of consultancy Capital Economics said.

Monthly retail sales volumes were flat in September and annual sales growth picked up to 3.1 per cent&nbsp;from a weak 2.6 per cent&nbsp;in August, the Office for National Statistics said - slightly less of a recovery than economists had forecast in a Reuters poll.

"Food shops bounced back after a weak few months, but there was yet more bad news for department stores, with sales continuing to fall in September," ONS statistician Rhian Murphy said.

Some retailers said unusually rainy weather had hurt demand too, the ONS added.

Sales in the 'non-specialised stores' category - which includes department stores - dropped by an annual 2.0 per cent&nbsp;in the third quarter, the biggest decline since the first three months of 2009 when Britain was mired in recession.

At the start of this month, major retailer John Lewis Partnership said it would cut a third of senior managers and merge its supermarket and department store divisions to better tackle challenges from online stores.

The lacklustre ONS figures are less bleak than a British Retail Consortium survey that showed the biggest fall in retail spending of any September since at least the mid-1990s.

In recent months, surveys by the BRC and Confederation of British Industry have painted a weaker picture of the retail sector than subsequent official data - in part due to the former focusing more on large high-street chains.

The ONS data has a broader sample that includes more online and small retailers, and its measure of retail spending showed annual growth slowing to 3.5 per cent&nbsp;in the third quarter from 4.1 per cent&nbsp;in the second quarter, the weakest since the second quarter of 2016.

Until recently consumers appeared to have largely taken Brexit in their stride, helped by weaker inflation and stronger growth in wages which are rising at the fastest pace in more than a decade.

That has aided the world's fifth-biggest economy at a time when many companies have been cutting back on investment because of uncertainty about Brexit.

A separate Bank of England survey on Thursday showed British lenders expect business loans will dry up in the next few months at the fastest rate since the financial crisis, boding poorly for investment as Brexit nears.

There have also been signs that consumers are turning more cautious as Britain's political crisis drags on.

Several British retailers, including supermarkets Asda and Morrisons&nbsp;and home improvement group Kingfisher, have highlighted the drag of Brexit uncertainty on bigger purchases.

But clothing retailer Next&nbsp;attributed a disappointing start to autumn trading to unusually warm weather in parts of Britain, rather than shoppers holding back on buying new items because of Brexit.

British shoppers grew more cautious about their spending in the three months to September despite rising wages, official figures showed on Thursday, raising concerns about the health of the economy in the run-up to Brexit.

British shoppers grew more cautious about their spending in the three months to September despite rising wages, official figures showed on Thursday, raising concerns about the health of the economy in the run-up to Brexit. Consumer spending has been the biggest driver of British economic growth since June 2016's referendum to leave the European Union, but there have been increasing signs that this is starting to soften. Looking at the third quarter as a whole, which strips out monthly volatility, quarterly sales growth held steady at 0.6 per cent while the annual pace of expansion dropped to 3.1 per cent from 3.6 per cent in the second quarter, the weakest since the late 2018. Stripping out inflation adjustments, growth in retail spending was the weakest in more than three years. Sterling showed little reaction to the data, with markets focused on whether Prime Minister Boris Johnson can broker a Brexit deal that is acceptable both to Brussels and Britain's parliament before the country is due to leave on October 31. "September's retail sales figures were perhaps a bit of a relief given the intense Brexit uncertainty, but were hardly a picture of strength," economist Ruth Gregory of consultancy Capital Economics said. Monthly retail sales volumes were flat in September and annual sales growth picked up to 3.1 per cent from a weak 2.6 per cent in August, the Office for National Statistics said - slightly less of a recovery than economists had forecast in a Reuters poll. "Food shops bounced back after a weak few months, but there was yet more bad news for department stores, with sales continuing to fall in September," ONS statistician Rhian Murphy said. Some retailers said unusually rainy weather had hurt demand too, the ONS added. Sales in the 'non-specialised stores' category - which includes department stores - dropped by an annual 2.0 per cent in the third quarter, the biggest decline since the first three months of 2009 when Britain was mired in recession. At the start of this month, major retailer John Lewis Partnership said it would cut a third of senior managers and merge its supermarket and department store divisions to better tackle challenges from online stores. The lacklustre ONS figures are less bleak than a British Retail Consortium survey that showed the biggest fall in retail spending of any September since at least the mid-1990s. In recent months, surveys by the BRC and Confederation of British Industry have painted a weaker picture of the retail sector than subsequent official data - in part due to the former focusing more on large high-street chains. The ONS data has a broader sample that includes more online and small retailers, and its measure of retail spending showed annual growth slowing to 3.5 per cent in the third quarter from 4.1 per cent in the second quarter, the weakest since the second quarter of 2016. Until recently consumers appeared to have largely taken Brexit in their stride, helped by weaker inflation and stronger growth in wages which are rising at the fastest pace in more than a decade. That has aided the world's fifth-biggest economy at a time when many companies have been cutting back on investment because of uncertainty about Brexit. A separate Bank of England survey on Thursday showed British lenders expect business loans will dry up in the next few months at the fastest rate since the financial crisis, boding poorly for investment as Brexit nears. There have also been signs that consumers are turning more cautious as Britain's political crisis drags on. Several British retailers, including supermarkets Asda and Morrisons and home improvement group Kingfisher, have highlighted the drag of Brexit uncertainty on bigger purchases. But clothing retailer Next attributed a disappointing start to autumn trading to unusually warm weather in parts of Britain, rather than shoppers holding back on buying new items because of Brexit.

United Kingdom retail sales growth softens as department stores disappoint

From the pinnacle of the City of London's largest skyscraper, Stuart Lipton is wagering a $1.2 billion bet that the British capital remains a master of the international financial universe no matter what happens with <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/brexit-on-october-31-a-priority-for-british-government-queen-255851">Brexit</a>.

The 76-year-old property developer is not alone. Bankrolled by a host of global investors, including France's Axa, his big-ticket gamble in London's financial district is - so far - on the money.

The cataclysmic warnings during the 2016 referendum that London would lose its financial throne if it voted to leave the European Union (EU) have, so far, been proven wrong. London is still the world's banker, only bigger by some measures.

"London is extraordinarily resilient and its future as a finance centre is secure because what we have here is unique," Lipton told Reuters on the 61st floor of 22 Bishopsgate, set to become western Europe's second tallest skyscraper when it opens next year.

In the year to June, London has attracted more cross border commercial real estate investment than any other city. It has overtaken New York as a destination for fintech investment and it has increased its dominance of the world's $6.6 trillion daily foreign exchange market.

Since the vote to leave the EU, Britain has leapfrogged the United States to become the largest centre for trading interest rate swaps, despite calls by ex-French President Francois Hollande to end London's dominance in clearing euro-denominated derivatives.

That London has expanded its influence as an international finance centre is one of the biggest riddles of the United Kingdom's tortuous three-year <a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/uk-economy-starts-to-shows-cracks-under-brexit-and-global-strains-254409">Brexit crisis.</a>

The city's standing ensures the United Kingdom keeps one of its last big chips at the top table of world politics just as it splits from the EU.

It also means EU companies will still come to London to raise finance outside the bloc after Brexit, a fact not lost on Wall Street heavyweights such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan.

Just a mile away from 22 Bishopsgate, Goldman opened its new 1 million square foot European headquarters - complete with mothers' rooms and wildflowers on the roof - in July, three years on from the 2016 referendum.

Largely abandoned by the British government during Brexit talks, ten senior industry officials told Reuters London's financial services sector has grown since 2016 because there is no realistic competitor in its time zone.

And high-rolling bankers are too attached to its Anglo-Saxon, work-hard, play-hard culture.

The chief executive of the British division of one of Europe's largest banks said although some business will move to the EU, most senior bankers will be reluctant to leave London. He would consider taking a 20 per cent&nbsp;pay cut to remain in the city.

"If you are an Italian banker, who moved out to London 20 years ago, and your kids go to private school around the corner then you are not going to move to Frankfurt," he said.

A global hub for trading, lending and investing, London is the largest net exporter of financial services in the world, with the EU accounting for a quarter of the business.

The 2016 referendum shocked many of the masters of London's financial universe, triggering the biggest one-day fall of the pound since the era of free-floating exchange rates was introduced in the early 1970s.

But so far, most major financial institutions have opted against moving large numbers of people and activities until the loss of access to the EU's lucrative single market is confirmed.

Banks, insurers and asset managers have shifted over a trillion euros of assets such as derivatives and bonds from London to the continent and opened new EU hubs as a hedge against London suddenly being cut off from the bloc if Britain exits the EU without a formal agreement.

The Bank of England estimates around 4,000 people may have moved by the time Britain has exited the EU. But the key decisions are still taken in London.

Reuters contacted JP Morgan and Goldman, and rivals Citi, Bank of America, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse&nbsp;and Deutsche Bank, to seek details on how a 'no-deal Brexit' might accelerate the transfer of resources and activities from London.

All banks said they were prepared for a no-deal Brexit, and had been since the first quarter.

Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley's chief executive, James Gorman, said that he scarcely worried about Brexit. "That's not in my top 200 issues," he said.

British data shows the total number of people employed in the City between 2016 and 2018 overall rose by 31,000, though the total number of people employed specifically in banking and insurance is down 3,000 over the period.

It is not clear how much of that drop is due to Brexit and how much is due to new regulations or structural changes, such as higher numbers of tech specialists at lenders while traditional banking jobs shrink.

Initial estimates of potential job losses ranged from about 30,000 roles within a year of Britain leaving the EU, estimated by the Brussels-based Bruegel research group, to up to 75,000 by 2025 by Oliver Wyman.

Oliver Wyman said they stand by their predictions because it is important to distinguish between job losses on the first day of Brexit and over the longer term. The final number will depend upon the level of market access, which is not clear yet.

Bruegel did not respond to a request for comment.

Financial capitals such as London have remarkable longevity and their rise and fall typically happens at a glacial pace, said Youssef Cassis, a professor of economic history who specialises in financial centres.

"There is no precedent for decoupling between a major economic power- in this case, the European Union- and its financial centre, London," he said.

Some key activities have moved out of London ahead of Brexit. Eurozone government bond and repurchase agreements trading worth around 230 billion euros a day, along with clearing, switched to Amsterdam, Milan and Paris earlier this year.

London-based CBOE Europe, the EU's largest share trading venue, began trading euro shares at its new Amsterdam hub at the start of October.

Nicolas Mackel, who heads a body promoting Luxembourg's financial centre, said it would be a shift in activities and not jobs that will affect London most.

"It's not between now and Christmas you have to look, but on a five, 10, 15 and 20-year framework. It's a false comfort that you are providing by only focusing on jobs," Mackel said.

After Brexit, the $15.9 trillion EU 27 economy will still be reliant on a financial capital outside its borders, which could be politically hard for Brussels to stomach indefinitely.

One European Commission official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the EU had no intention of smothering Britain's financial sector to accelerate its own plans for an EU capital markets union.

But there is scepticism in the market about the longevity of such pledges.

"Why should one expect the EU to give an economic answer to what is a political challenge?" said Xavier Rolet, former head of London Stock Exchange and CEO of investment manager CQS.

"I would expect them to respond politically, even if those answers are not necessarily in the best economic interests of EU-based investors, corporates and banks."

Rolet, who said in the aftermath of the referendum that half of all finance jobs in London may disappear if derivatives clearing left the capital, said it was too early to assess the implications of Brexit.

"I do stand by my statement," he said of the potential job losses.

From the pinnacle of the City of London's largest skyscraper, Stuart Lipton is wagering a $1.2 billion bet that the British capital remains a master of the international financial universe no matter what happens with Brexit.

From the pinnacle of the City of London's largest skyscraper, Stuart Lipton is wagering a $1.2 billion bet that the British capital remains a master of the international financial universe no matter what happens with Brexit. The 76-year-old property developer is not alone. Bankrolled by a host of global investors, including France's Axa, his big-ticket gamble in London's financial district is - so far - on the money. The cataclysmic warnings during the 2016 referendum that London would lose its financial throne if it voted to leave the European Union (EU) have, so far, been proven wrong. London is still the world's banker, only bigger by some measures. "London is extraordinarily resilient and its future as a finance centre is secure because what we have here is unique," Lipton told Reuters on the 61st floor of 22 Bishopsgate, set to become western Europe's second tallest skyscraper when it opens next year. In the year to June, London has attracted more cross border commercial real estate investment than any other city. It has overtaken New York as a destination for fintech investment and it has increased its dominance of the world's $6.6 trillion daily foreign exchange market. Since the vote to leave the EU, Britain has leapfrogged the United States to become the largest centre for trading interest rate swaps, despite calls by ex-French President Francois Hollande to end London's dominance in clearing euro-denominated derivatives. That London has expanded its influence as an international finance centre is one of the biggest riddles of the United Kingdom's tortuous three-year Brexit crisis. The city's standing ensures the United Kingdom keeps one of its last big chips at the top table of world politics just as it splits from the EU. It also means EU companies will still come to London to raise finance outside the bloc after Brexit, a fact not lost on Wall Street heavyweights such as Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan. Just a mile away from 22 Bishopsgate, Goldman opened its new 1 million square foot European headquarters - complete with mothers' rooms and wildflowers on the roof - in July, three years on from the 2016 referendum. Largely abandoned by the British government during Brexit talks, ten senior industry officials told Reuters London's financial services sector has grown since 2016 because there is no realistic competitor in its time zone. And high-rolling bankers are too attached to its Anglo-Saxon, work-hard, play-hard culture. The chief executive of the British division of one of Europe's largest banks said although some business will move to the EU, most senior bankers will be reluctant to leave London. He would consider taking a 20 per cent pay cut to remain in the city. "If you are an Italian banker, who moved out to London 20 years ago, and your kids go to private school around the corner then you are not going to move to Frankfurt," he said. A global hub for trading, lending and investing, London is the largest net exporter of financial services in the world, with the EU accounting for a quarter of the business. The 2016 referendum shocked many of the masters of London's financial universe, triggering the biggest one-day fall of the pound since the era of free-floating exchange rates was introduced in the early 1970s. But so far, most major financial institutions have opted against moving large numbers of people and activities until the loss of access to the EU's lucrative single market is confirmed. Banks, insurers and asset managers have shifted over a trillion euros of assets such as derivatives and bonds from London to the continent and opened new EU hubs as a hedge against London suddenly being cut off from the bloc if Britain exits the EU without a formal agreement. The Bank of England estimates around 4,000 people may have moved by the time Britain has exited the EU. But the key decisions are still taken in London. Reuters contacted JP Morgan and Goldman, and rivals Citi, Bank of America, UBS, Morgan Stanley, Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank, to seek details on how a 'no-deal Brexit' might accelerate the transfer of resources and activities from London. All banks said they were prepared for a no-deal Brexit, and had been since the first quarter. Earlier this year, Morgan Stanley's chief executive, James Gorman, said that he scarcely worried about Brexit. "That's not in my top 200 issues," he said. British data shows the total number of people employed in the City between 2016 and 2018 overall rose by 31,000, though the total number of people employed specifically in banking and insurance is down 3,000 over the period. It is not clear how much of that drop is due to Brexit and how much is due to new regulations or structural changes, such as higher numbers of tech specialists at lenders while traditional banking jobs shrink. Initial estimates of potential job losses ranged from about 30,000 roles within a year of Britain leaving the EU, estimated by the Brussels-based Bruegel research group, to up to 75,000 by 2025 by Oliver Wyman. Oliver Wyman said they stand by their predictions because it is important to distinguish between job losses on the first day of Brexit and over the longer term. The final number will depend upon the level of market access, which is not clear yet. Bruegel did not respond to a request for comment. Financial capitals such as London have remarkable longevity and their rise and fall typically happens at a glacial pace, said Youssef Cassis, a professor of economic history who specialises in financial centres. "There is no precedent for decoupling between a major economic power- in this case, the European Union- and its financial centre, London," he said. Some key activities have moved out of London ahead of Brexit. Eurozone government bond and repurchase agreements trading worth around 230 billion euros a day, along with clearing, switched to Amsterdam, Milan and Paris earlier this year. London-based CBOE Europe, the EU's largest share trading venue, began trading euro shares at its new Amsterdam hub at the start of October. Nicolas Mackel, who heads a body promoting Luxembourg's financial centre, said it would be a shift in activities and not jobs that will affect London most. "It's not between now and Christmas you have to look, but on a five, 10, 15 and 20-year framework. It's a false comfort that you are providing by only focusing on jobs," Mackel said. After Brexit, the $15.9 trillion EU 27 economy will still be reliant on a financial capital outside its borders, which could be politically hard for Brussels to stomach indefinitely. One European Commission official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that the EU had no intention of smothering Britain's financial sector to accelerate its own plans for an EU capital markets union. But there is scepticism in the market about the longevity of such pledges. "Why should one expect the EU to give an economic answer to what is a political challenge?" said Xavier Rolet, former head of London Stock Exchange and CEO of investment manager CQS. "I would expect them to respond politically, even if those answers are not necessarily in the best economic interests of EU-based investors, corporates and banks." Rolet, who said in the aftermath of the referendum that half of all finance jobs in London may disappear if derivatives clearing left the capital, said it was too early to assess the implications of Brexit. "I do stand by my statement," he said of the potential job losses.

London retains global finance throne amid Brexit chaos

An isolated <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/russias-vladimir-putin-voices-cautious-optimism-on-ukraine-in-meeting-with-french-president-emmanuel-macron-244252">President Donald Trump arrived Saturday for the G7 summit </a>in Biarritz bearing threats of tariffs against host France and a decision to deepen his trade war with China, despite fears of the US or even global recession.

Trump dislikes the kind of multilateral forums epitomized by the G7, insisting on a policy of "America first" and his skills, honed in a real estate career, of one-to-one deal-making.

Ahead of the summit in the elegant French seaside resort, he has criticized most of his partners, rowing with them over Iran, trade, global warming and Brexit.

And on the eve of his trip, he brushed aside concerns of<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/gold-hits-over-the-six-year-peak-on-risk-off-sentiment-242745"> global economic slowdown </a>to exchange new tariffs with China, insisting "we'll win."

In another piece of brinkmanship, he also confirmed right before departing on the Marine One helicopter that he would retaliate against France's iconic wine exports if President Emmanuel Macron didn't retreat on a new tax that will hit US digital giants like Google.

"We'll be taxing their wine as they've never seen before," he vowed.

The other G7 leaders from&nbsp;Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, are waiting for Trump with a mixture of alarm and resignation.

Macron has even decided that for the first time the G7 won't issue a group statement at the end of the summit, given the extent of divisions.&nbsp;

At last year's meeting in Canada, Trump withdrew his signature in fury at Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.&nbsp;

It would be "pointless," Macron said.

Is the World economy at stake?&nbsp;

Other G7 leaders are already alarmed at the fallout from the escalating US-China trade war.

But Trump, bullish as ever, steeply ramped up tariffs against China on Friday after Beijing slapped its new tariffs against US products.

Trump says he alone can take on the Chinese after decades of intellectual property theft and a slate of other unfair trading practices.

He called the struggle "a little spat."

At the G7 he is expected to seek allies, but the other leaders are deeply sceptical about whether Trump's crusade can ever succeed or&nbsp;whether it will tip a slowing world economy over the edge.

The first working event of the G7 will be a session early Sunday that the White House specifically asked at the "last minute" to be added to the agenda: a meeting of the leaders on economic growth.

Trump will tell his partners "to write&nbsp;the rules for this century, in contrast to the unfair trade practices that we see coming out of China," a senior administration official told reporters.

Trump will also urge the Europeans, Canada and Japan to shake up their economies along US lines.

"You’ll have the president engaging in honest conversations," the official said.

Cozy no more

Despite the diplomatic storm clouds gathering over Biarritz, on the Atlantic coast, Trump said the trip "will be very productive."

But there are questions over the future of the G7 as Trump's nationalist approach turns it into something more like a 6+1.

G7s always used to be cozy affairs, giving the leaders of like-minded, capitalist democracies a chance to relax and talk frankly in the context of largely shared values.

However, there is increasingly little common ground between Trump and what would ordinarily be among the closest of US allies.

Yet another diplomatic&nbsp;hand grenade went off days before the trip, when Trump reiterated his desire to recreate the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/macron-seeks-ukraine-progress-from-putin-in-rare-pre-g7-talks-243465">G8 format with Russia</a>, expelled in 2014 after Vladimir Putin's invasion of Crimea.

Other G7 leaders have rebuffed this, but Trump, who will host the G7 next year, is unlikely to give up easily.

Another point of contention is Brexit, the chaotic decision by Britain to quit the European Union.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has staked much on striking a bilateral trade deal with the United States as a key step in his country's new go-it-alone strategy.

While Johnson finds it tough going with Merkel and Macron, he's likely to encounter a much warmer Trump, who says the EU has "not treated the UK very well."

An isolated President Donald Trump arrived Saturday for the G7 summit in Biarritz bearing threats of tariffs against host France and a decision to deepen his trade war with China, despite fears of the US or even global recession.

An isolated President Donald Trump arrived Saturday for the G7 summit in Biarritz bearing threats of tariffs against host France and a decision to deepen his trade war with China, despite fears of the US or even global recession. Trump dislikes the kind of multilateral forums epitomized by the G7, insisting on a policy of "America first" and his skills, honed in a real estate career, of one-to-one deal-making. Ahead of the summit in the elegant French seaside resort, he has criticized most of his partners, rowing with them over Iran, trade, global warming and Brexit. And on the eve of his trip, he brushed aside concerns of global economic slowdown to exchange new tariffs with China, insisting "we'll win." In another piece of brinkmanship, he also confirmed right before departing on the Marine One helicopter that he would retaliate against France's iconic wine exports if President Emmanuel Macron didn't retreat on a new tax that will hit US digital giants like Google. "We'll be taxing their wine as they've never seen before," he vowed. The other G7 leaders from Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan, are waiting for Trump with a mixture of alarm and resignation. Macron has even decided that for the first time the G7 won't issue a group statement at the end of the summit, given the extent of divisions. At last year's meeting in Canada, Trump withdrew his signature in fury at Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. It would be "pointless," Macron said. Is the World economy at stake? Other G7 leaders are already alarmed at the fallout from the escalating US-China trade war. But Trump, bullish as ever, steeply ramped up tariffs against China on Friday after Beijing slapped its new tariffs against US products. Trump says he alone can take on the Chinese after decades of intellectual property theft and a slate of other unfair trading practices. He called the struggle "a little spat." At the G7 he is expected to seek allies, but the other leaders are deeply sceptical about whether Trump's crusade can ever succeed or whether it will tip a slowing world economy over the edge. The first working event of the G7 will be a session early Sunday that the White House specifically asked at the "last minute" to be added to the agenda: a meeting of the leaders on economic growth. Trump will tell his partners "to write the rules for this century, in contrast to the unfair trade practices that we see coming out of China," a senior administration official told reporters. Trump will also urge the Europeans, Canada and Japan to shake up their economies along US lines. "You’ll have the president engaging in honest conversations," the official said. Cozy no more Despite the diplomatic storm clouds gathering over Biarritz, on the Atlantic coast, Trump said the trip "will be very productive." But there are questions over the future of the G7 as Trump's nationalist approach turns it into something more like a 6+1. G7s always used to be cozy affairs, giving the leaders of like-minded, capitalist democracies a chance to relax and talk frankly in the context of largely shared values. However, there is increasingly little common ground between Trump and what would ordinarily be among the closest of US allies. Yet another diplomatic hand grenade went off days before the trip, when Trump reiterated his desire to recreate the G8 format with Russia, expelled in 2014 after Vladimir Putin's invasion of Crimea. Other G7 leaders have rebuffed this, but Trump, who will host the G7 next year, is unlikely to give up easily. Another point of contention is Brexit, the chaotic decision by Britain to quit the European Union. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson has staked much on striking a bilateral trade deal with the United States as a key step in his country's new go-it-alone strategy. While Johnson finds it tough going with Merkel and Macron, he's likely to encounter a much warmer Trump, who says the EU has "not treated the UK very well."

Isolated Donald Trump descends on G-7, talking trade war

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-says-countries-buying-iranian-oil-will-be-subject-to-sanctions-223000">Oil prices</a> fell more than 1% on Monday, extending losses of over 3% from Friday when crude markets slipped to their biggest monthly losses in six months amid stalling demand and as trade wars fanned fears of a global economic slowdown.

Front-month Brent crude futures were at $61.12 at 0444 GMT. That was 87 cents, or 1.4 per cent, below Friday`s close.US&nbsp;West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $52.91 per barrel, down 59 cents, or 1.1% from its last settlement.

The drops followed price slumps of more than 3 per cent&nbsp;on Friday, which made May the worst-performing month for crude futures since last November. 
"Oil prices slid on fresh trade worries after U.S. President <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/great-respect-between-us-and-north-korea-donald-trump-221859">Donald Trump</a> stoked global trade tensions by threatening tariffs on Mexico, which is one of the largest U.S. trade partners and a major supplier of crude oil," said Mithun Fernando, investment analyst at Australia`s Rivkin Securities, in a note on Monday. 
In a typical move for financial markets during times of uncertainty, gold on Monday rose to its highest level in over two months as investors pulled out of risky assets like oil and parked money in perceived safe havens like the precious metal. 
Edward Moya, senior market analyst at futures brokerage OANDA in New York, warned "oil remains vulnerable" because of a weakening demand outlook for crude.

 
"The US-China feud remains most critical to the global growth outlook, but the addition of trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico raised the slower demand picture for the Americas," he said.Barclays bank said in a note published last Friday that US&nbsp;March oil consumption "declined significantly year-on-year for the first time since September 2017 as&nbsp;petroleum demand fell almost 370,000 barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year on weak consumption across the barrel." 
 
US&nbsp;bank Goldman Sachs said in a note published on Sunday that "escalating trade wars and weaker activity indicators have finally caught up with oil market sentiment".Brent crude oil prices have dropped almost 20 per cent&nbsp;from their 2018-peak in late April."The magnitude and velocity of the move lower were further exacerbated by growing concerns over strong US&nbsp;production growth and rising inventories," Goldman said. 
US&nbsp;energy firms this week increased the number of oil rigs operating for the first time in four weeks, and weekly production last stood at a record 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd).

 
That`s pushed up commercial US&nbsp;crude oil inventories, which have increased by 8.4 per cent&nbsp;since the start of the year to 476.5 million barrels. 
"With an increasingly uncertain macro outlook as well as rising US&nbsp;production and large available core-OPEC spare capacity helping offset declining supply from Iran and Venezuela, we instead expect prices will likely remain around our 3Q forecasts and current levels, albeit with still high price volatility," Goldman said. 
The bank`s Brent price forecast for the third quarter of this year was $65.50 per barrel.

Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday, extending losses of over 3% from Friday when crude markets slipped to their biggest monthly losses in six months amid stalling demand and as trade wars fanned fears of a global economic slowdown.

Oil prices fell more than 1% on Monday, extending losses of over 3% from Friday when crude markets slipped to their biggest monthly losses in six months amid stalling demand and as trade wars fanned fears of a global economic slowdown. Front-month Brent crude futures were at $61.12 at 0444 GMT. That was 87 cents, or 1.4 per cent, below Friday`s close.US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $52.91 per barrel, down 59 cents, or 1.1% from its last settlement. The drops followed price slumps of more than 3 per cent on Friday, which made May the worst-performing month for crude futures since last November. "Oil prices slid on fresh trade worries after U.S. President Donald Trump stoked global trade tensions by threatening tariffs on Mexico, which is one of the largest U.S. trade partners and a major supplier of crude oil," said Mithun Fernando, investment analyst at Australia`s Rivkin Securities, in a note on Monday. In a typical move for financial markets during times of uncertainty, gold on Monday rose to its highest level in over two months as investors pulled out of risky assets like oil and parked money in perceived safe havens like the precious metal. Edward Moya, senior market analyst at futures brokerage OANDA in New York, warned "oil remains vulnerable" because of a weakening demand outlook for crude. "The US-China feud remains most critical to the global growth outlook, but the addition of trade tensions between the U.S. and Mexico raised the slower demand picture for the Americas," he said.Barclays bank said in a note published last Friday that US March oil consumption "declined significantly year-on-year for the first time since September 2017 as petroleum demand fell almost 370,000 barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year on weak consumption across the barrel." US bank Goldman Sachs said in a note published on Sunday that "escalating trade wars and weaker activity indicators have finally caught up with oil market sentiment".Brent crude oil prices have dropped almost 20 per cent from their 2018-peak in late April."The magnitude and velocity of the move lower were further exacerbated by growing concerns over strong US production growth and rising inventories," Goldman said. US energy firms this week increased the number of oil rigs operating for the first time in four weeks, and weekly production last stood at a record 12.3 million barrels per day (bpd). That`s pushed up commercial US crude oil inventories, which have increased by 8.4 per cent since the start of the year to 476.5 million barrels. "With an increasingly uncertain macro outlook as well as rising US production and large available core-OPEC spare capacity helping offset declining supply from Iran and Venezuela, we instead expect prices will likely remain around our 3Q forecasts and current levels, albeit with still high price volatility," Goldman said. The bank`s Brent price forecast for the third quarter of this year was $65.50 per barrel.

Oil prices extend drops as trade wars fan fears in financial markets

Wall Street edged higher on Wednesday after <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/wall-street-starts-new-year-with-1-percent-slide-on-global-slowdown-jitters-187942">stumbling out of the starting gate on the first trading day of 2019</a>, while fears of a global economic slowdown were exacerbated after Apple cut its holiday-quarter revenue forecast.

Apple&nbsp;dropped 8 per cent in extended trading late in the day after the iPhone maker slashed its outlook for the December quarter, blaming weak demand in China.

Shares of Apple's suppliers also fell, and S&amp;P 500 futures&nbsp;dropped 1.3 per cent, signalling that Wednesday's modest advance could unwind when the market reopens on Thursday.

"To see Apple's sales drop off this much says something about the Chinese economy," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. "Any company that does business in China will feel the impact of this."

Stocks had started the session lower after separate reports showed a deceleration in factory activity in China and the euro zone, indicating the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China was taking a toll on global manufacturing.

Energy stocks led the S&amp;P 500's advance and the sector was the index's biggest percentage gainer, buoyed by a 2.4 per cent jump in crude prices. The group was the worst performing S&amp;P sector in 2018.

Gains were offset by healthcare&nbsp;and so-called defensive sectors, such as real estate, utilities&nbsp;and consumer staples. Healthcare companies provided the biggest drag on the S&amp;P 500 and the Dow.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average&nbsp;rose 18.78 points, or 0.08 per cent, to 23,346.24, the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;gained 3.18 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 2,510.03 and the Nasdaq Composite&nbsp;added 30.66 points, or 0.46 per cent, to 6,665.94.

Of the 11 major sectors in the S&amp;P 500, seven closed in positive territory.

Banks got a boost from Barclays, as the broker wrote in a research note that the sector could outperform the S&amp;P this year. The Dow Jones Industrial average was led higher with gains from Goldman Sachs&nbsp;and JPMorgan.

Tesla Inc&nbsp;delivered fewer-than-expected Model 3 sedans in the fourth quarter and cut US&nbsp;prices. The electric automaker's shares slid 6.8 per cent.

General Electric Co&nbsp;jumped 6.3 per cent in heavy trading as bargain hunters bought the stock in the wake of its over 50-per cent plunge in 2018.

In the coming weeks, the fourth-quarter reporting period will get underway. Analysts see S&amp;P 500 companies posting profit gains of 15.8 per cent, significantly smaller than the third quarter's 28.4 per cent advance.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.10-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.42-to-1 ratio favoured advancers.

The S&amp;P 500 posted no new 52-week highs and 4 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 9 new highs and 58 new lows.

Volume on US&nbsp;exchanges was 7.80 billion shares, compared to the 9.18 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Apple dropped 8 per cent in extended trading late in the day after the iPhone maker slashed its outlook for the December quarter, blaming weak demand in China.

Wall Street edged higher on Wednesday after stumbling out of the starting gate on the first trading day of 2019, while fears of a global economic slowdown were exacerbated after Apple cut its holiday-quarter revenue forecast. Apple dropped 8 per cent in extended trading late in the day after the iPhone maker slashed its outlook for the December quarter, blaming weak demand in China. Shares of Apple's suppliers also fell, and S&P 500 futures dropped 1.3 per cent, signalling that Wednesday's modest advance could unwind when the market reopens on Thursday. "To see Apple's sales drop off this much says something about the Chinese economy," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment strategist at Inverness Counsel in New York. "Any company that does business in China will feel the impact of this." Stocks had started the session lower after separate reports showed a deceleration in factory activity in China and the euro zone, indicating the ongoing trade dispute between the United States and China was taking a toll on global manufacturing. Energy stocks led the S&P 500's advance and the sector was the index's biggest percentage gainer, buoyed by a 2.4 per cent jump in crude prices. The group was the worst performing S&P sector in 2018. Gains were offset by healthcare and so-called defensive sectors, such as real estate, utilities and consumer staples. Healthcare companies provided the biggest drag on the S&P 500 and the Dow. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 18.78 points, or 0.08 per cent, to 23,346.24, the S&P 500 gained 3.18 points, or 0.13 per cent, to 2,510.03 and the Nasdaq Composite added 30.66 points, or 0.46 per cent, to 6,665.94. Of the 11 major sectors in the S&P 500, seven closed in positive territory. Banks got a boost from Barclays, as the broker wrote in a research note that the sector could outperform the S&P this year. The Dow Jones Industrial average was led higher with gains from Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan. Tesla Inc delivered fewer-than-expected Model 3 sedans in the fourth quarter and cut US prices. The electric automaker's shares slid 6.8 per cent. General Electric Co jumped 6.3 per cent in heavy trading as bargain hunters bought the stock in the wake of its over 50-per cent plunge in 2018. In the coming weeks, the fourth-quarter reporting period will get underway. Analysts see S&P 500 companies posting profit gains of 15.8 per cent, significantly smaller than the third quarter's 28.4 per cent advance. Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 2.10-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.42-to-1 ratio favoured advancers. The S&P 500 posted no new 52-week highs and 4 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 9 new highs and 58 new lows. Volume on US exchanges was 7.80 billion shares, compared to the 9.18 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Wall Street ekes out gains, Apple cuts revenue forecast after the bell

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and signal if it still plans to double the rates in 2016 amid concerns about a US hiring slowdown and Britain&#39;s possible exit from the European Union. 
 
The Fed had raised its key overnight lending rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade, but it has backed away from further monetary policy tightening this year largely due to a global economic slowdown and financial market volatility. 
 
The US central bank is scheduled to issue its latest policy statement and updated economic projections following a two-day meeting at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a news conference today.&nbsp; 
 
The Fed&#39;s targeted overnight lending rate is forecast to remain in the current range of 0.25 per cent to 0.50 per cent, according to a Reuters poll of 151 economists. 
 
Fed forecasts in March pointed to two rate rises in 2016, but a sharp slowdown in US job gains in May and the prospect that Britain could vote next week to leave the EU have added to doubts about the economic outlook. 
 
With US hiring expected to bounce back in June and no financial meltdown from the Brexit vote currently seen, economists now expect the Fed to tighten monetary policy in July or September. 
 
Yellen, however, recently warned that a British exit from the EU could have a significant economic impact, a concern shared by other Fed policymakers. 
 
&quot;We shouldn&#39;t expect the Fed to be prepared to send a clear signal about a timing of rate hikes,&quot; said Roberto Perli, an economist at Cornerstone Macro. 
 
The Fed telegraphed December&#39;s rate increase by saying in October it would consider tightening at its next meeting. While such clarity appears unlikely today, policymakers could provide guidance through their updated economic forecasts. 
 
Perli and other analysts expect those forecasts will continue to point to two rate increases this year. They calculate eight of the Fed&#39;s 17 policymakers would need to shift their outlook for the closely-watched median forecast to move to only one increase. 
 
Prices for interest rate futures suggest investors are betting on just one rate rise this year, according to CME Group. 
 
Economists expect the Fed will raise rates at least once this year, based on a view of an improving US jobs market and the central bank coming under pressure to keep inflation from rising well above its 2 per cent target. 
 
&quot;With the unemployment rate at 4.7 per cent, wage growth clearly picking up, and financial conditions much easier, there is likely a limit to how long the Fed&#39;s pause can last,&quot; Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Zach Pandl wrote in a recent note to clients. 
(Reuters)

The US Federal Reserve had raised its lending rate last December for the first time since 2006 by a quarter-percentage point

The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged and signal if it still plans to double the rates in 2016 amid concerns about a US hiring slowdown and Britain's possible exit from the European Union. The Fed had raised its key overnight lending rate in December for the first time in nearly a decade, but it has backed away from further monetary policy tightening this year largely due to a global economic slowdown and financial market volatility. The US central bank is scheduled to issue its latest policy statement and updated economic projections following a two-day meeting at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). Fed Chair Janet Yellen will hold a news conference today. The Fed's targeted overnight lending rate is forecast to remain in the current range of 0.25 per cent to 0.50 per cent, according to a Reuters poll of 151 economists. Fed forecasts in March pointed to two rate rises in 2016, but a sharp slowdown in US job gains in May and the prospect that Britain could vote next week to leave the EU have added to doubts about the economic outlook. With US hiring expected to bounce back in June and no financial meltdown from the Brexit vote currently seen, economists now expect the Fed to tighten monetary policy in July or September. Yellen, however, recently warned that a British exit from the EU could have a significant economic impact, a concern shared by other Fed policymakers. "We shouldn't expect the Fed to be prepared to send a clear signal about a timing of rate hikes," said Roberto Perli, an economist at Cornerstone Macro. The Fed telegraphed December's rate increase by saying in October it would consider tightening at its next meeting. While such clarity appears unlikely today, policymakers could provide guidance through their updated economic forecasts. Perli and other analysts expect those forecasts will continue to point to two rate increases this year. They calculate eight of the Fed's 17 policymakers would need to shift their outlook for the closely-watched median forecast to move to only one increase. Prices for interest rate futures suggest investors are betting on just one rate rise this year, according to CME Group. Economists expect the Fed will raise rates at least once this year, based on a view of an improving US jobs market and the central bank coming under pressure to keep inflation from rising well above its 2 per cent target. "With the unemployment rate at 4.7 per cent, wage growth clearly picking up, and financial conditions much easier, there is likely a limit to how long the Fed's pause can last," Goldman Sachs economists Jan Hatzius and Zach Pandl wrote in a recent note to clients. (Reuters)

Fed expected to keep interest rates unchanged in wake of possible Brexit