The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is facing difficult moments just ahead of the general elections. It was looking to score political points on two issues but had to suffer setbacks in both. First, the Supreme Court has held that the Delhi government — headed by AAP leader and chief minister Arvind Kejriwal — had no powers to constitute commissions of inquiry and that the anti-corruption branch of the government could not investigate cases against central government officials. Second, the Congress has spurned the AAP’s offer for an electoral alliance to jointly take on the Bharatiya Janata Party in the coming polls. &nbsp;

AAP leaders have reacted furiously to the apex court’s ruling, with Kejriwal exclaiming, ‘What sort of verdict is this!” But his party colleague and Rajya Sabha member Sanjay Singh went a step further, wondering whether the court would give a judgement against the Modi regime. There have been demands by AAP’s detractors to slap a contempt of court case against the Rajya Sabha member. So far the court has not taken note of the remarks, and some BJP leaders have said the party would take a call soon on moving a contempt plea.&nbsp;&nbsp;

In February 2015, soon after the AAP government took charge for a second time, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs issues a notification that services would be under the purview of the Lieutenant Governor, who is a representative of the central government. The notification also stated that the state’s anti-corruption branch would not register cases against central government employees, let alone investigate those instances. In August 2016, following AAP’s appeal, the Delhi High Court snubbed AAP by ruling that the Lt Governor was the administrative head. 
 
The matter went to the Supreme Court, and in July 2018, the court said that the Lt Governor would retain powers in matters related to police, public order and land, but that decisions of the elected regime did not require the Lt Governor’s concurrence. While this last ruling was exploited as a ‘victory’ by all sides, the confusion over the powers of the Lt Governor and the elected government remained largely unaddressed.&nbsp;&nbsp;

The February 14 order is clearer, and yet one issue remains unsettled: That of controlling authority over the administrative services. The two-judge bench which delivered the latest ruling was divided on whether the state regime had powers over the administrative cadre of the rank below joint secretary, and a larger Bench will now look into the matter. Thus, while the AAP can still hope for a favourable verdict on this count, it's on the backfoot for the moment. Its opponents have hailed the court order and claimed it is a slap on the face of an ‘anarchist Kejriwal’ and his government.&nbsp;

The second setback, that of the Congress’s refusal to align with the AAP, is equally embarrassing for Delhi’s ruling party. The Delhi unit of the Congress under its new leader Sheila Dikshit is not keen on any understanding with the AAP in the state. Kejriwal has had the mortification of being snubbed openly on the matter, and he has had to concede that so far, his desire to have a pact with the Congress to contain the BJP has not gone anywhere. Kejriwal seems to have forgotten the anti-graft campaign he had been a prominent part of, against the then Dikshit regime in Delhi — a campaign that eventually fetched his power in Delhi and the chief ministership too. Then he had threatened to jail the senior Congress leader.&nbsp;

But why is the AAP over-eager to tie up with the Congress, when it claims to have the overwhelming support of the people? How is it that a party which has a near monopoly in numbers in the Delhi Assembly, has to crave for support from another party which has no representation from Delhi, either in the Lok Sabha or in the Assembly? There are two essential reasons. The first is that the AAP fears a washout in Delhi, similar to the one in 2014 — the best-case scenario could be a seat or two. The second is that unlike in 2014, the party’s prospects in Punjab, which gave it four MPs, are bleak. The AAP’s Punjab affairs are in a shambles, with various party leaders having left the organisation. Besides, the Congress led by Captain Amarinder Singh is sitting pretty in the state; let alone the AAP, even the BJP-Akali Dal combine will find it difficult to counter the Chief Minister.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Five years ago, the AAP had first formed the government with the Congress’s outside backing and soon enough ended the arrangement after ‘apologising’ to the people for the mistake (of having taken the support). Then, the parting of ways clicked for the AAP as it stormed back to power. Today it needs the Congress to remain relevant in the Lok Sabha. How things change!&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

&nbsp;

&nbsp;&nbsp;

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is facing difficult moments just ahead of the general elections. It was looking to score political points on two issues but had to suffer setbacks in both.

The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) is facing difficult moments just ahead of the general elections. It was looking to score political points on two issues but had to suffer setbacks in both. First, the Supreme Court has held that the Delhi government — headed by AAP leader and chief minister Arvind Kejriwal — had no powers to constitute commissions of inquiry and that the anti-corruption branch of the government could not investigate cases against central government officials. Second, the Congress has spurned the AAP’s offer for an electoral alliance to jointly take on the Bharatiya Janata Party in the coming polls. AAP leaders have reacted furiously to the apex court’s ruling, with Kejriwal exclaiming, ‘What sort of verdict is this!” But his party colleague and Rajya Sabha member Sanjay Singh went a step further, wondering whether the court would give a judgement against the Modi regime. There have been demands by AAP’s detractors to slap a contempt of court case against the Rajya Sabha member. So far the court has not taken note of the remarks, and some BJP leaders have said the party would take a call soon on moving a contempt plea. In February 2015, soon after the AAP government took charge for a second time, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs issues a notification that services would be under the purview of the Lieutenant Governor, who is a representative of the central government. The notification also stated that the state’s anti-corruption branch would not register cases against central government employees, let alone investigate those instances. In August 2016, following AAP’s appeal, the Delhi High Court snubbed AAP by ruling that the Lt Governor was the administrative head. The matter went to the Supreme Court, and in July 2018, the court said that the Lt Governor would retain powers in matters related to police, public order and land, but that decisions of the elected regime did not require the Lt Governor’s concurrence. While this last ruling was exploited as a ‘victory’ by all sides, the confusion over the powers of the Lt Governor and the elected government remained largely unaddressed. The February 14 order is clearer, and yet one issue remains unsettled: That of controlling authority over the administrative services. The two-judge bench which delivered the latest ruling was divided on whether the state regime had powers over the administrative cadre of the rank below joint secretary, and a larger Bench will now look into the matter. Thus, while the AAP can still hope for a favourable verdict on this count, it's on the backfoot for the moment. Its opponents have hailed the court order and claimed it is a slap on the face of an ‘anarchist Kejriwal’ and his government. The second setback, that of the Congress’s refusal to align with the AAP, is equally embarrassing for Delhi’s ruling party. The Delhi unit of the Congress under its new leader Sheila Dikshit is not keen on any understanding with the AAP in the state. Kejriwal has had the mortification of being snubbed openly on the matter, and he has had to concede that so far, his desire to have a pact with the Congress to contain the BJP has not gone anywhere. Kejriwal seems to have forgotten the anti-graft campaign he had been a prominent part of, against the then Dikshit regime in Delhi — a campaign that eventually fetched his power in Delhi and the chief ministership too. Then he had threatened to jail the senior Congress leader. But why is the AAP over-eager to tie up with the Congress, when it claims to have the overwhelming support of the people? How is it that a party which has a near monopoly in numbers in the Delhi Assembly, has to crave for support from another party which has no representation from Delhi, either in the Lok Sabha or in the Assembly? There are two essential reasons. The first is that the AAP fears a washout in Delhi, similar to the one in 2014 — the best-case scenario could be a seat or two. The second is that unlike in 2014, the party’s prospects in Punjab, which gave it four MPs, are bleak. The AAP’s Punjab affairs are in a shambles, with various party leaders having left the organisation. Besides, the Congress led by Captain Amarinder Singh is sitting pretty in the state; let alone the AAP, even the BJP-Akali Dal combine will find it difficult to counter the Chief Minister. Five years ago, the AAP had first formed the government with the Congress’s outside backing and soon enough ended the arrangement after ‘apologising’ to the people for the mistake (of having taken the support). Then, the parting of ways clicked for the AAP as it stormed back to power. Today it needs the Congress to remain relevant in the Lok Sabha. How things change! (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

With setbacks from Supreme Court and Congress, the road ahead is tough for Aam Aadmi Party

Actor-turned-politician Rajinikanth on Sunday said that he will not contest the <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/rajinikanth-meets-his-forum-members-136089">upcoming parliament election</a> and added, his picture or party symbol should not be used for any election campaign or propaganda.&nbsp;

&nbsp;"I will not be contesting in the <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/ready-to-face-polls-even-in-six-months-rajinikanth-29915?amp">Lok Sabha elections</a>. I don't support any political party. I also ask political parties to refrain from using my pictures or Rajini Makkal Mandram’s flag for election campaigns," the actor said in a statement.

Rajinikanth had announced his political entry on New Year’s Eve 2018 and was expected to announce the launch of his political party last year on December 12, his birthday but superstar said that he was in no hurry.&nbsp;

“We don’t have any plan to launch the party and introduce the flag on my birthday. It will take some more time as we have to complete certain works and be ready,” Rajinikanth had said.

Actor-turned-politician Rajinikanth on Sunday said that he will not contest the upcoming parliament election and added, his picture or party symbol should not be used for any election campaign or propaganda.

Actor-turned-politician Rajinikanth on Sunday said that he will not contest the upcoming parliament election and added, his picture or party symbol should not be used for any election campaign or propaganda. "I will not be contesting in the Lok Sabha elections. I don't support any political party. I also ask political parties to refrain from using my pictures or Rajini Makkal Mandram’s flag for election campaigns," the actor said in a statement. Rajinikanth had announced his political entry on New Year’s Eve 2018 and was expected to announce the launch of his political party last year on December 12, his birthday but superstar said that he was in no hurry. “We don’t have any plan to launch the party and introduce the flag on my birthday. It will take some more time as we have to complete certain works and be ready,” Rajinikanth had said.

Actor Rajinikanth says he will not contest upcoming Lok Sabha elections

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has said the opposition will form a pre-poll alliance before the Lok Sabha elections.&nbsp;

"We'll work together at the national level. We'll have a common minimum agenda. We'll have a pre-poll alliance," Mamata said Wednesday night.&nbsp;

Mamata made her statement after meeting with the NCP's Sharad Pawar, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naid, former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Farooq Abdullah, Delhi Chief Minsister Arvind Kejriwal, and Congress chief Rahul Gandhi.&nbsp;

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West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee after a meeting with Sharad Pawar, Chandrababu Naidu, Farooq Abdullah, Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal: We'll work together at the national level. We'll have a common minimum agenda. We'll have a pre-poll alliance <a href="https://t.co/da9lCV5hIE">pic.twitter.com/da9lCV5hIE</a>
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"We had a very constructive meeting. We agreed that the principal target for all of us is to fight against the assault on institutes," Congress President Rahul Gandhi said.&nbsp;

"We agreed to start a conversation about a common minimum programme and we have a comittment that we're all going to work together," Rahul added. &nbsp;

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Congress Pres Rahul Gandhi after a meeting with Sharad Pawar, Chandrababu Naidu, Farooq Abdullah, Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal: We had a very constructive meeting. We agreed that principal target for all of us is to fight against assault on institutes being carried out by BJP <a href="https://t.co/XIuWB52LUg">pic.twitter.com/XIuWB52LUg</a>
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Mamata had already provided an inkling about&nbsp;<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/we-will-fight-the-lok-sabha-elections-together-mamata-banerjee-197206">an opposition alliance</a> Wednesday evening at Delhi's Jantar Mantar.&nbsp;

"We will fight together in the coming days," Mamata had said at Delhi's Jantar Mantar.&nbsp;

She added then that her fight against the Congress and the CPM would remain confined to the state — but that at the national level they would fight together.&nbsp;

Mamata had been joined at Jantar Mantar by Naidu and Kejriwal.&nbsp;

"We are in danger, we have to protect this nation, democracy is under threat. If all of us are not united, this is the last election for all of us, tomorrow there won't be any election," Naidu had said on Wednesday evening.&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has said the opposition will form a pre-poll alliance before the Lok Sabha elections. "We'll work together at the national level.

West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has said the opposition will form a pre-poll alliance before the Lok Sabha elections. "We'll work together at the national level. We'll have a common minimum agenda. We'll have a pre-poll alliance," Mamata said Wednesday night. Mamata made her statement after meeting with the NCP's Sharad Pawar, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naid, former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Farooq Abdullah, Delhi Chief Minsister Arvind Kejriwal, and Congress chief Rahul Gandhi. West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee after a meeting with Sharad Pawar, Chandrababu Naidu, Farooq Abdullah, Rahul Gandhi, Arvind Kejriwal: We'll work together at the national level. We'll have a common minimum agenda. We'll have a pre-poll alliance pic.twitter.com/da9lCV5hIE — ANI (@ANI) February 13, 2019 × "We had a very constructive meeting. We agreed that the principal target for all of us is to fight against the assault on institutes," Congress President Rahul Gandhi said. "We agreed to start a conversation about a common minimum programme and we have a comittment that we're all going to work together," Rahul added. Congress Pres Rahul Gandhi after a meeting with Sharad Pawar, Chandrababu Naidu, Farooq Abdullah, Mamata Banerjee, Arvind Kejriwal: We had a very constructive meeting. We agreed that principal target for all of us is to fight against assault on institutes being carried out by BJP pic.twitter.com/XIuWB52LUg — ANI (@ANI) February 13, 2019 × Mamata had already provided an inkling about an opposition alliance Wednesday evening at Delhi's Jantar Mantar. "We will fight together in the coming days," Mamata had said at Delhi's Jantar Mantar. She added then that her fight against the Congress and the CPM would remain confined to the state — but that at the national level they would fight together. Mamata had been joined at Jantar Mantar by Naidu and Kejriwal. "We are in danger, we have to protect this nation, democracy is under threat. If all of us are not united, this is the last election for all of us, tomorrow there won't be any election," Naidu had said on Wednesday evening.

Lok Sabha elections: Opposition will form pre-poll alliance, says Mamata Banerjee

Former Samajwadi Party chief and Akhilesh Yadav's father Mulayam Singh Yadav father has thrown political circles into a slight tizzy with his latest comment. He told Narendra Modi on Wednesday that he wanted him to become prime minister again.&nbsp;

"I want to congratulate the PM for trying to take everybody along," Mulayam said. &nbsp;

"I want all the MPs to win again, and for you to become prime minister again," he added. &nbsp;

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Samajwadi Party's Mulayam Singh Yadav in Lok Sabha: PM ko badhaai dena chahta hun ki PM ne sabko saath lekar chalne ki koshish ki hai. Main kehna chahta hun ki saare sadaysa phir se jeet kar aayen, aur aap (PM) dobara pradhan mantri banein (File pic) <a href="https://t.co/reeyh5H9bB">pic.twitter.com/reeyh5H9bB</a>
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<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/WATCH?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#WATCH</a> Samajwadi Party's Mulayam Singh Yadav in Lok Sabha, says, "PM ko badhaai dena chahta hun ki PM ne sabko saath lekar chalne ka pura prayas kiya. Main chahta hun, meri kamna hai ki saare sadsya phir se jeet kar aayen aur aap (PM) dobara pradhan mantri banein." <a href="https://t.co/j6Bnj9Kr3p">pic.twitter.com/j6Bnj9Kr3p</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1095655381966163971?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 13, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Wednesday was <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/triple-talaq-citizenship-amendment-bill-lapse-as-rajya-sabha-adjourned-sine-die-197104">the last day of parliament</a> before the upcoming Lok Sabha elections.&nbsp;

Mulayam made his comments with former Congress president Sonia Gandhi sitting next to him. Modi in turn smiled, and folded his hands in a namaste.&nbsp;

Mulayam's son Akhilesh and the current chief of the Samajwadi Party is of course firmly in the opposition camp. He will be fighting the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in alliance with BSP chief Mayawati. They will be the main challengers of Uttar Pradesh's ruling BJP.&nbsp;

UP is the country most important state politically, sending 80 MPs to parliament.&nbsp;

All has not seemed to be well between Akhilesh and his father Mulayam since a family feud broke out within the SP with Mulayam placing himself somewhere between the competing factions of Akhilesh and Mulayam's brothers Shivpal and Ram Gopal.&nbsp;

Shivpal has since broken away from the SP, setting up a separate Samajwadi Secular Morcha. Shivpal has also said that the SP's current tie-up the BSP goes against everything Mulayam has fought for.&nbsp;

Former Samajwadi Party chief and Akhilesh Yadav's father Mulayam Singh Yadav father has thrown political circles into a slight tizzy with his latest comment. He told Narendra Modi on Wednesday that he wanted him to become prime minister again.

Former Samajwadi Party chief and Akhilesh Yadav's father Mulayam Singh Yadav father has thrown political circles into a slight tizzy with his latest comment. He told Narendra Modi on Wednesday that he wanted him to become prime minister again. "I want to congratulate the PM for trying to take everybody along," Mulayam said. "I want all the MPs to win again, and for you to become prime minister again," he added. Samajwadi Party's Mulayam Singh Yadav in Lok Sabha: PM ko badhaai dena chahta hun ki PM ne sabko saath lekar chalne ki koshish ki hai. Main kehna chahta hun ki saare sadaysa phir se jeet kar aayen, aur aap (PM) dobara pradhan mantri banein (File pic) pic.twitter.com/reeyh5H9bB — ANI (@ANI) February 13, 2019 × #WATCH Samajwadi Party's Mulayam Singh Yadav in Lok Sabha, says, "PM ko badhaai dena chahta hun ki PM ne sabko saath lekar chalne ka pura prayas kiya. Main chahta hun, meri kamna hai ki saare sadsya phir se jeet kar aayen aur aap (PM) dobara pradhan mantri banein." pic.twitter.com/j6Bnj9Kr3p — ANI (@ANI) February 13, 2019 × Wednesday was the last day of parliament before the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. Mulayam made his comments with former Congress president Sonia Gandhi sitting next to him. Modi in turn smiled, and folded his hands in a namaste. Mulayam's son Akhilesh and the current chief of the Samajwadi Party is of course firmly in the opposition camp. He will be fighting the upcoming Lok Sabha elections in alliance with BSP chief Mayawati. They will be the main challengers of Uttar Pradesh's ruling BJP. UP is the country most important state politically, sending 80 MPs to parliament. All has not seemed to be well between Akhilesh and his father Mulayam since a family feud broke out within the SP with Mulayam placing himself somewhere between the competing factions of Akhilesh and Mulayam's brothers Shivpal and Ram Gopal. Shivpal has since broken away from the SP, setting up a separate Samajwadi Secular Morcha. Shivpal has also said that the SP's current tie-up the BSP goes against everything Mulayam has fought for.

I want you to become PM again: Mulayam Singh Yadav to Narendra Modi

Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee said Wednesday that <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/if-opposition-wins-rahul-gandhi-open-to-mayawati-mamata-as-pm-in-2019-reports-154267">the opposition will fight the upcoming Lok Sabha elections together</a>.&nbsp;

"We will fight together in the coming days," Mamata said at Delhi's Jantar Mantar.&nbsp;

She added that her fight against the Congress and the CPM would remain confined to the state — but that at the national level they would fight together.&nbsp;

"Let them fight against me, I don't mind. For interest of the nation, I'm ready to sacrifice my life/ party," she added.&nbsp;

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Mamata Banerjee: Aane waale din ekhatte hoke humlog ladenge. Hamare saath Congress, CPM ka jo bhi fight rahega state mein rahega. National level mein hum ek saath ladenge. Let them fight against me, I don't mind. For interest of the nation, I'm ready to sacrifice my life/party <a href="https://t.co/Bi3RWcOnXx">pic.twitter.com/Bi3RWcOnXx</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1095661685753270273?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 13, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Mamata has of course just emerged from <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/mamata-banerjee-sits-on-dharna-after-cbi-kolkata-police-face-off-194890">a massive clash against the Centre</a> after the CBI showed up unannounced at the Kolkata Police chief's home, accusing him of slow-walking the investigations into the Saradha and Rose Valley chit fund scams in Bengal.&nbsp;

Mamata had said the CBI's turning up unannounced at Rajeev Kumar's home was a "destruction of the federal structure", and had a few hours later announced her "Save the Constitution" dharna.&nbsp;

She called off her dharna after a closed-door meeting with Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu. (A number of opposition leaders had called Mamata after her run-in with the Centre, offering their support.)&nbsp;

"We are in danger, we have to protect this nation, democracy is under threat. If all of us are not united, this is the last election for all of us, tomorrow there won't be any election," Naidu said on Wednesday at Jantar Mantar.&nbsp;

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Andhra Pradesh CM &amp; TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu in Delhi: We are in danger, we have to protect this nation, democracy is under threat. If all of us are not united, this is the last election for all of us, tomorrow there won't be any election. <a href="https://t.co/55hfgefv5p">pic.twitter.com/55hfgefv5p</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1095661894524911616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 13, 2019</a></blockquote>
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ANI meanwhile reported that Mamata, Naidu, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, former Jammu&nbsp;and Kashmir chief minister Farooq Abdullah would meet later on Wednesday at NCP chief Sharad Pawar's home.&nbsp;

A notable absentee from Wednesday's meeting will of course be Congress chief Rahul Gandhi.&nbsp;

Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee said Wednesday that the opposition will fight the upcoming Lok Sabha elections together. "We will fight together in the coming days," Mamata said at Delhi's Jantar Mantar.

Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerjee said Wednesday that the opposition will fight the upcoming Lok Sabha elections together. "We will fight together in the coming days," Mamata said at Delhi's Jantar Mantar. She added that her fight against the Congress and the CPM would remain confined to the state — but that at the national level they would fight together. "Let them fight against me, I don't mind. For interest of the nation, I'm ready to sacrifice my life/ party," she added. Mamata Banerjee: Aane waale din ekhatte hoke humlog ladenge. Hamare saath Congress, CPM ka jo bhi fight rahega state mein rahega. National level mein hum ek saath ladenge. Let them fight against me, I don't mind. For interest of the nation, I'm ready to sacrifice my life/party pic.twitter.com/Bi3RWcOnXx — ANI (@ANI) February 13, 2019 × Mamata has of course just emerged from a massive clash against the Centre after the CBI showed up unannounced at the Kolkata Police chief's home, accusing him of slow-walking the investigations into the Saradha and Rose Valley chit fund scams in Bengal. Mamata had said the CBI's turning up unannounced at Rajeev Kumar's home was a "destruction of the federal structure", and had a few hours later announced her "Save the Constitution" dharna. She called off her dharna after a closed-door meeting with Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu. (A number of opposition leaders had called Mamata after her run-in with the Centre, offering their support.) "We are in danger, we have to protect this nation, democracy is under threat. If all of us are not united, this is the last election for all of us, tomorrow there won't be any election," Naidu said on Wednesday at Jantar Mantar. Andhra Pradesh CM & TDP chief N Chandrababu Naidu in Delhi: We are in danger, we have to protect this nation, democracy is under threat. If all of us are not united, this is the last election for all of us, tomorrow there won't be any election. pic.twitter.com/55hfgefv5p — ANI (@ANI) February 13, 2019 × ANI meanwhile reported that Mamata, Naidu, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, former Jammu and Kashmir chief minister Farooq Abdullah would meet later on Wednesday at NCP chief Sharad Pawar's home. A notable absentee from Wednesday's meeting will of course be Congress chief Rahul Gandhi.

Opposition will fight the Lok Sabha elections together: Mamata Banerjee

As the 2019 general election is approaching, the issue of women is likely to assume significance.&nbsp;

It has been observed that during the last few years, the participation of women in electoral voting has increased considerably. In 16 out of 29 states of India, more women voted than men in 2014 elections. &nbsp;

Women turnout during India's 2014 parliamentary general elections was 65.63 per cent, compared to 67.09 per cent turnout for men. Though the rise in female voter registration has been modest, turnout among female electors has surged. This trend has made every political party sensitive to the demands of women.

It is ironical that Indian politics has been represented by strong women personality over the last 60 years such as Indira Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Jayalalitha, Mayawati, Mamata &nbsp;Banerjee, Sushma Swaraj, Sheila Dikshit, Rabri Devi, Agatha Sangma etc. However, this has not translated into significant development of women in society.&nbsp;

Contrary to the democratic expectations, violence against women has increased in Indian society. Cases of crime against women have increased by over 40 per cent from 2012 to 2016, according to the National Crime Records Bureau. A woman was raped every 13 minutes, a bride was murdered for dowry every 69 minutes, and six women were gang-raped every day in India in 2016.

Participation of women in opportunity structure is significantly low, particularly in the political structure. Indian women have the lowest representation in Parliament, they make up a mere 11.6 per cent of the 542-member Lok Sabha and 11 per cent of the 245-member Rajya Sabha. In 2014, just 8.1 per cent of candidates for the Lok Sabha were women.&nbsp;

Among its South Asian neighbours, India ranks fifth in women’s political representation in Parliament falling behind Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal. It's sad that India which aspires to become a regional and global power has poor records of women underrepresentation in state and national decision-making bodies.

At the same time, the current government is credited to make women for the first time as defence minister of the country. PM Modi's Council of Ministers consists of 9 female ministers, of whom 6 hold the rank of Cabinet minister, the highest number of female Cabinet ministers in any Indian government in history.

Also, the government is known for its numerous women-centred policies like Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, Ujjawala scheme etc. It's yet to be seen whether women electorate will continue to support PM Modi now as he remains a popular figure among Indian women.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

&nbsp;

As the 2019 general election is approaching, the issue of women is likely to assume significance. It has been observed that during the last few years, the participation of women in electoral voting has increased considerably.

As the 2019 general election is approaching, the issue of women is likely to assume significance. It has been observed that during the last few years, the participation of women in electoral voting has increased considerably. In 16 out of 29 states of India, more women voted than men in 2014 elections. Women turnout during India's 2014 parliamentary general elections was 65.63 per cent, compared to 67.09 per cent turnout for men. Though the rise in female voter registration has been modest, turnout among female electors has surged. This trend has made every political party sensitive to the demands of women. It is ironical that Indian politics has been represented by strong women personality over the last 60 years such as Indira Gandhi, Sonia Gandhi, Jayalalitha, Mayawati, Mamata Banerjee, Sushma Swaraj, Sheila Dikshit, Rabri Devi, Agatha Sangma etc. However, this has not translated into significant development of women in society. Contrary to the democratic expectations, violence against women has increased in Indian society. Cases of crime against women have increased by over 40 per cent from 2012 to 2016, according to the National Crime Records Bureau. A woman was raped every 13 minutes, a bride was murdered for dowry every 69 minutes, and six women were gang-raped every day in India in 2016. Participation of women in opportunity structure is significantly low, particularly in the political structure. Indian women have the lowest representation in Parliament, they make up a mere 11.6 per cent of the 542-member Lok Sabha and 11 per cent of the 245-member Rajya Sabha. In 2014, just 8.1 per cent of candidates for the Lok Sabha were women. Among its South Asian neighbours, India ranks fifth in women’s political representation in Parliament falling behind Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Nepal. It's sad that India which aspires to become a regional and global power has poor records of women underrepresentation in state and national decision-making bodies. At the same time, the current government is credited to make women for the first time as defence minister of the country. PM Modi's Council of Ministers consists of 9 female ministers, of whom 6 hold the rank of Cabinet minister, the highest number of female Cabinet ministers in any Indian government in history. Also, the government is known for its numerous women-centred policies like Beti Bachao Beti Padhao, Ujjawala scheme etc. It's yet to be seen whether women electorate will continue to support PM Modi now as he remains a popular figure among Indian women. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Women electorate to play an important role in Lok Sabha elections 2019

On day one, <a href="http://www.wionews.com/opinions/with-congress-in-a-shambles-in-up-a-long-and-hard-road-for-priyanka-gandhi-vadra-196746">Priyanka Gandhi Vadra talked about her commitment to Uttar Pradesh</a>. (She was interacting with Congress office bearers in Lucknow.) She told the Congressmen and women that the party needs to take immediate and tough decisions for the Lok Sabha elections so that it remains in the fight, but that her real work in the state will begin only after the Lok Sabha elections.&nbsp;

Priyanka added that she had enjoyed organisational work since childhood since she had been involved with Amethi and Rai Bareilly for a long time and would now bring that experience to reviving the party in the state. By saying this, Priyanka sent out the clear signal to party leaders that she is here to stay in Uttar Pradesh, which Rahul Gandhi could not do despite his intense engagement with UP politics both in the 2007 and 2012 assembly elections.&nbsp;

Rahul Gandhi had mentioned this in his speech on Monday, which Priyanka vociferously emphasised during the closed-door interaction.&nbsp;

This becomes important in the context of the statement by former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav. He categorically denied the possibility of giving the Congress any more seats in Uttar Pradesh, saying, "Congress is part of SP-BSP alliance as we have already left Rai Bareilly and Amethi to them.”

Priyanka also told party workers that once she takes a call on the Congress' Lok Sabha candidates, factional fights should not break out in the unit.&nbsp;

She also took suggestions as to who should be the party's state president. (Raj Babbar currently holds the post.) She also enquired into the office bearers' knowledge of their constituencies. They were asked about the number of booths in their area; some of them could not answer the question.&nbsp;

Priyanka also sought opinions on issues that she should raise before the elections, and on probable candidates for the Lok Sabha elections. She also enquired into programmes that Congress units had organised last year and what more needs to be done at the local level.

People who attended the meeting told WION that Priyanka took copious notes and entertained group photographs after each session.&nbsp;

Jyotiraditya Scindia met separately with office bearers in the same building. He is in charge of 38 Lok Sabha seats while Priyanka is overseeing 42. The closed meetings are expected to last till the evening of February 14 after which Priyanka will close the first leg of her Uttar Pradesh tour.&nbsp;

The biggest challenge for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is the shortlisting of candidates for the upcoming general elections. On the other hand, there exists a possibility of the Congress accommodating smaller parties to strengthen its position in certain constituencies. A proposal has been sent to Priyanka but she has not taken a call to proceed on the offer.&nbsp;

The Congress has been out of power in Uttar Pradesh for the past 30 years.

On day one, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra talked about her commitment to Uttar Pradesh. (She was interacting with Congress office bearers in Lucknow.) She told the Congressmen and women that the party needs to take immediate and tough decisions for the Lok Sabha elections so that it remains in the fight, but that her real work in the state will begin only after the Lok Sabha elections.

On day one, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra talked about her commitment to Uttar Pradesh. (She was interacting with Congress office bearers in Lucknow.) She told the Congressmen and women that the party needs to take immediate and tough decisions for the Lok Sabha elections so that it remains in the fight, but that her real work in the state will begin only after the Lok Sabha elections. Priyanka added that she had enjoyed organisational work since childhood since she had been involved with Amethi and Rai Bareilly for a long time and would now bring that experience to reviving the party in the state. By saying this, Priyanka sent out the clear signal to party leaders that she is here to stay in Uttar Pradesh, which Rahul Gandhi could not do despite his intense engagement with UP politics both in the 2007 and 2012 assembly elections. Rahul Gandhi had mentioned this in his speech on Monday, which Priyanka vociferously emphasised during the closed-door interaction. This becomes important in the context of the statement by former Uttar Pradesh chief minister Akhilesh Yadav. He categorically denied the possibility of giving the Congress any more seats in Uttar Pradesh, saying, "Congress is part of SP-BSP alliance as we have already left Rai Bareilly and Amethi to them.” Priyanka also told party workers that once she takes a call on the Congress' Lok Sabha candidates, factional fights should not break out in the unit. She also took suggestions as to who should be the party's state president. (Raj Babbar currently holds the post.) She also enquired into the office bearers' knowledge of their constituencies. They were asked about the number of booths in their area; some of them could not answer the question. Priyanka also sought opinions on issues that she should raise before the elections, and on probable candidates for the Lok Sabha elections. She also enquired into programmes that Congress units had organised last year and what more needs to be done at the local level. People who attended the meeting told WION that Priyanka took copious notes and entertained group photographs after each session. Jyotiraditya Scindia met separately with office bearers in the same building. He is in charge of 38 Lok Sabha seats while Priyanka is overseeing 42. The closed meetings are expected to last till the evening of February 14 after which Priyanka will close the first leg of her Uttar Pradesh tour. The biggest challenge for Priyanka Gandhi Vadra is the shortlisting of candidates for the upcoming general elections. On the other hand, there exists a possibility of the Congress accommodating smaller parties to strengthen its position in certain constituencies. A proposal has been sent to Priyanka but she has not taken a call to proceed on the offer. The Congress has been out of power in Uttar Pradesh for the past 30 years.

My final goal is the 2022 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh: Priyanka Gandhi Vadra

The ‘middle class’ is a humongous classification. It can consist of a salaried employee, a small businessman, a pensioner, even an under-employed person who survives on a generous contribution to his wellbeing by relatives. To add to the complexity, the middle class is subdivided into ‘lower middle class’, middle class’ and ‘upper middle class’, all with varying incomes and different concerns and desires. But what binds them together is the taxes they pay as individual assesses, and the perennial grievance which arises from such a tax-trap. The middle class is also the most difficult to appease and its loyalty takes no time in shifting from one political party to another.&nbsp;

When finance minister Piyush Goyal stood up to deliver his Budget speech on Friday, he was not unaware of the challenge of pleasing this mercurial section of the population. And more so, since in recent months, his party had suffered electoral reversals in three important north Indian states, with one of the major causes being the shift of the middle-class votes away from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Something had to be done, since this was the last Budget, even if an interim one, before the party faced the people in the Lok Sabha election. And something was done. Whether the last-ditch effort will bring rewards, will be known in about four months. 
&nbsp; 
Given the middle class’s expanse, just one measure would not have sufficed. So the finance minister announced a slew of dramatic proposals, which were greeted with loud thumps and vocal cheering from the treasury bench. A nonplussed opposition looked on with a somewhat dazed expression, though its leaders later recovered and, outside Parliament, rubbished the announcements as the ‘final jumla’ of a government on its way out. Nevertheless, the moment belonged to the Modi regime. &nbsp;

The one announcement which most energised the NDA rank and possibly the millions that fall in the middle-class category was the 100 per cent tax rebate for individual tax-payers whose annual income does not cross five lakh rupees.&nbsp;

Until now, they had to pay five per cent as the tax on their income. The five lakh rupee ceiling can go even higher if the individual takes advantage of various tax-saving measures related to interest on educations, national pension schemes, medical claims, interest on home loans etc. According to experts, it is possible for individuals earning as high as eight to ten lakh rupees per year to remain out of the tax net with some help from the existing tax-saving avenues. &nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
To understand the potential political reach of this proposal, one needs to only remember that close to 30 million taxpayers from the middle class will end up saving more than Rs 18,000 crore annually. There are the other spinoffs. Savings on tax can result in a boost to consumption, which in turn could positively affect industrial output, even if that impacts largely the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector. At any rate, it could lead to more money flowing in tax-saving instruments, which is not a bad thing in itself.&nbsp;

The middle class was given further bonanzas. The standard deduction limit has been proposed to be raised from the present Rs 40,000 to Rs 50,000; &nbsp;second-time home buyers, again an important constituent of the aspirational middle-class category, will get exemption on notional rent earned on the second house, benefits from long-term capital gains tax, and relief on tax deducted at source (TDS) for rental income (up to Rs 2.40 lakh). Here too, there are multiple benefits, besides those to the middle class. With more middle-class taxpayers being encouraged to own a second home, the housing sector, which is struggling with unsold properties, can get a leg-up.

As if these were not enough — clearly the finance minister believed that if he had come this far, a little further would do no harm — the tax exemption limit on interest on savings in banks and post offices was increased fourfold, from Rs 10,000 to Rs 40,000. &nbsp;

Leave aside the economics — where is the government going to find the money for these concessions, or, will it be able to adhere to the fiscal deficit target, etc — for now. That is for the next regime to grapple with. If it’s going to be the BJP-led NDA again, then it will be judged by its ability to deliver on those promises and also simultaneously offer a roadmap for fiscal prudence; if it’s a new regime, it can simply junk Goyal’s proposals in its full-fledged Budget and dish out something else in their place. It’s the politics that matters in the immediate term, which is what the Budget has been all about.&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

The ‘middle class’ is a humongous classification. It can consist of a salaried employee, a small businessman, a pensioner, even an under-employed person who survives on a generous contribution to his wellbeing by relatives.

The ‘middle class’ is a humongous classification. It can consist of a salaried employee, a small businessman, a pensioner, even an under-employed person who survives on a generous contribution to his wellbeing by relatives. To add to the complexity, the middle class is subdivided into ‘lower middle class’, middle class’ and ‘upper middle class’, all with varying incomes and different concerns and desires. But what binds them together is the taxes they pay as individual assesses, and the perennial grievance which arises from such a tax-trap. The middle class is also the most difficult to appease and its loyalty takes no time in shifting from one political party to another. When finance minister Piyush Goyal stood up to deliver his Budget speech on Friday, he was not unaware of the challenge of pleasing this mercurial section of the population. And more so, since in recent months, his party had suffered electoral reversals in three important north Indian states, with one of the major causes being the shift of the middle-class votes away from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Something had to be done, since this was the last Budget, even if an interim one, before the party faced the people in the Lok Sabha election. And something was done. Whether the last-ditch effort will bring rewards, will be known in about four months. Given the middle class’s expanse, just one measure would not have sufficed. So the finance minister announced a slew of dramatic proposals, which were greeted with loud thumps and vocal cheering from the treasury bench. A nonplussed opposition looked on with a somewhat dazed expression, though its leaders later recovered and, outside Parliament, rubbished the announcements as the ‘final jumla’ of a government on its way out. Nevertheless, the moment belonged to the Modi regime. The one announcement which most energised the NDA rank and possibly the millions that fall in the middle-class category was the 100 per cent tax rebate for individual tax-payers whose annual income does not cross five lakh rupees. Until now, they had to pay five per cent as the tax on their income. The five lakh rupee ceiling can go even higher if the individual takes advantage of various tax-saving measures related to interest on educations, national pension schemes, medical claims, interest on home loans etc. According to experts, it is possible for individuals earning as high as eight to ten lakh rupees per year to remain out of the tax net with some help from the existing tax-saving avenues. To understand the potential political reach of this proposal, one needs to only remember that close to 30 million taxpayers from the middle class will end up saving more than Rs 18,000 crore annually. There are the other spinoffs. Savings on tax can result in a boost to consumption, which in turn could positively affect industrial output, even if that impacts largely the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector. At any rate, it could lead to more money flowing in tax-saving instruments, which is not a bad thing in itself. The middle class was given further bonanzas. The standard deduction limit has been proposed to be raised from the present Rs 40,000 to Rs 50,000; second-time home buyers, again an important constituent of the aspirational middle-class category, will get exemption on notional rent earned on the second house, benefits from long-term capital gains tax, and relief on tax deducted at source (TDS) for rental income (up to Rs 2.40 lakh). Here too, there are multiple benefits, besides those to the middle class. With more middle-class taxpayers being encouraged to own a second home, the housing sector, which is struggling with unsold properties, can get a leg-up. As if these were not enough — clearly the finance minister believed that if he had come this far, a little further would do no harm — the tax exemption limit on interest on savings in banks and post offices was increased fourfold, from Rs 10,000 to Rs 40,000. Leave aside the economics — where is the government going to find the money for these concessions, or, will it be able to adhere to the fiscal deficit target, etc — for now. That is for the next regime to grapple with. If it’s going to be the BJP-led NDA again, then it will be judged by its ability to deliver on those promises and also simultaneously offer a roadmap for fiscal prudence; if it’s a new regime, it can simply junk Goyal’s proposals in its full-fledged Budget and dish out something else in their place. It’s the politics that matters in the immediate term, which is what the Budget has been all about. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Budget 2019: The moment belonged to Narendra Modi government and middle-class taxpayers

Credibility Lost

At the heart of CBI’s attempted raid in West Bengal, lies the credibility of the central agency as an institution in India. Indian politicians have failed the institution miserably. CBI continues to derive its power from the Delhi Police Establishment Act of 1946. Today, entire Opposition is crying foul and accusing the present government of misusing CBI.&nbsp;

In 2012, the then minister of the state in charge of DOPT, Narayan Swami, went on to say that CBI has adequate and functional autonomy and there exists no proposal within the government to grant constitutional status to the investigative agency.

Both Congress and BJP, despite being in government for several years, neither initiated reform within the institution nor pushed for legislative debate to reconceive the legal architecture of the agency.&nbsp;

This inertia continues despite the fact that Guwahati high court declared CBI unconstitutional on November 7, 2013. The agency, thereafter, had to rush to the Supreme Court to take a stay order on the decision on November 9.

It proves that both Congress and BJP want the makeshift arrangement to stay alive and kicking because it allows them to use the CBI as a 'political weapon'.

This arrangement received further nourishment after the 1989 elections when the era of coalition dawned on Indian politics. The successive governments ended up using CBI to shore up political support by hectoring regional parties with cases of corruption.&nbsp;

It allowed them to survive with less numbers in Parliament. It is for this reason, even BJP, which enjoys majority in Lok Sabha, did not move an inch to appoint the Lokpal system which UPA 2 had to adopt under duress.

What makes the case of government even weaker is that the Supreme Court itself has passed relevant instructions to the CBI. As per the Supreme Court’s interim order given on July 16, 2018, both state police and CBI were supposed to work in tandem. More so, the court had directed CBI to approach high court in Calcutta in case they faced any obstruction.&nbsp;

Though Centre did give reminders to the state government on multiple occasion but the relief should have been sought from the relevant court as directed by the Apex Court.

In this case, it becomes very clear as to what direction the Apex Court may head to. For many, it may be a case of constitutional crisis and deteriorating relationship between the Centre and state, but CBI’s credibility and its pending reform lies at heart of the matter. 
 
Regional Chauvinism vs Corruption

There is no doubt that Rose valley and Sharda scams represent underbelly of India’s crony capitalism. It represents the way political parties organise funding for its day-to-day running, and election expenses.&nbsp;

BJP wants the matter to appear as a campaign against corrupt politicians, whereas TMC wants it to turn into an issue of regional pride and authoritarian assault by Centre against non-BJP state governments.

There is no denying the fact that most of the accused in the scam were closely associated with TMC. It explains TMC’s nervousness in the case and proves that case cannot be hushed forever.&nbsp;

Regional chauvinism has succeeded on multiple occasions in Indian politics. Be it the case of NT Rama Rao in Andhra Pradesh or Nitish Kumar during 2015 Bihar elections or Naveen Patnaik in Odisha.&nbsp;

BJP wants West Bengal to be the new harvest ground to make up for the losses in other states.

Mamata, on the other hand, is trying to turn the issue into Federal constitutionalism. She has rallied support from many regional parties on this issue. Which issue will succeed in run up to the Lok Sabha elections is a million-dollar question, but one thing is clear that Mamata’s role will not be limited to West Bengal in case electorate throws up a hung house.

Regional Parties

BJP has already mangled its equations with regional parties. It has been primarily a result of expansion of BJP’s footprint in far corners of India.&nbsp;

BJP has taken up issues which have pitted the party against small and regional parties.

It is going to pose a great challenge to the Saffron party in case it falls short of numbers. BJP will have to face a lot of political hectoring from smaller players in case it needs to shore up numbers for a simple majority in Lok Sabha.

The attempted raid not only brings many smaller players on one platform but will also test the issue of corruption in 2019 elections. It worked in 2014. However, same can’t be said today when the focus has turned to economy and jobs where it has failed miserably.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Credibility Lost At the heart of CBI’s attempted raid in West Bengal, lies the credibility of the central agency as an institution in India. Indian politicians have failed the institution miserably.

Credibility Lost At the heart of CBI’s attempted raid in West Bengal, lies the credibility of the central agency as an institution in India. Indian politicians have failed the institution miserably. CBI continues to derive its power from the Delhi Police Establishment Act of 1946. Today, entire Opposition is crying foul and accusing the present government of misusing CBI. In 2012, the then minister of the state in charge of DOPT, Narayan Swami, went on to say that CBI has adequate and functional autonomy and there exists no proposal within the government to grant constitutional status to the investigative agency. Both Congress and BJP, despite being in government for several years, neither initiated reform within the institution nor pushed for legislative debate to reconceive the legal architecture of the agency. This inertia continues despite the fact that Guwahati high court declared CBI unconstitutional on November 7, 2013. The agency, thereafter, had to rush to the Supreme Court to take a stay order on the decision on November 9. It proves that both Congress and BJP want the makeshift arrangement to stay alive and kicking because it allows them to use the CBI as a 'political weapon'. This arrangement received further nourishment after the 1989 elections when the era of coalition dawned on Indian politics. The successive governments ended up using CBI to shore up political support by hectoring regional parties with cases of corruption. It allowed them to survive with less numbers in Parliament. It is for this reason, even BJP, which enjoys majority in Lok Sabha, did not move an inch to appoint the Lokpal system which UPA 2 had to adopt under duress. What makes the case of government even weaker is that the Supreme Court itself has passed relevant instructions to the CBI. As per the Supreme Court’s interim order given on July 16, 2018, both state police and CBI were supposed to work in tandem. More so, the court had directed CBI to approach high court in Calcutta in case they faced any obstruction. Though Centre did give reminders to the state government on multiple occasion but the relief should have been sought from the relevant court as directed by the Apex Court. In this case, it becomes very clear as to what direction the Apex Court may head to. For many, it may be a case of constitutional crisis and deteriorating relationship between the Centre and state, but CBI’s credibility and its pending reform lies at heart of the matter. Regional Chauvinism vs Corruption There is no doubt that Rose valley and Sharda scams represent underbelly of India’s crony capitalism. It represents the way political parties organise funding for its day-to-day running, and election expenses. BJP wants the matter to appear as a campaign against corrupt politicians, whereas TMC wants it to turn into an issue of regional pride and authoritarian assault by Centre against non-BJP state governments. There is no denying the fact that most of the accused in the scam were closely associated with TMC. It explains TMC’s nervousness in the case and proves that case cannot be hushed forever. Regional chauvinism has succeeded on multiple occasions in Indian politics. Be it the case of NT Rama Rao in Andhra Pradesh or Nitish Kumar during 2015 Bihar elections or Naveen Patnaik in Odisha. BJP wants West Bengal to be the new harvest ground to make up for the losses in other states. Mamata, on the other hand, is trying to turn the issue into Federal constitutionalism. She has rallied support from many regional parties on this issue. Which issue will succeed in run up to the Lok Sabha elections is a million-dollar question, but one thing is clear that Mamata’s role will not be limited to West Bengal in case electorate throws up a hung house. Regional Parties BJP has already mangled its equations with regional parties. It has been primarily a result of expansion of BJP’s footprint in far corners of India. BJP has taken up issues which have pitted the party against small and regional parties. It is going to pose a great challenge to the Saffron party in case it falls short of numbers. BJP will have to face a lot of political hectoring from smaller players in case it needs to shore up numbers for a simple majority in Lok Sabha. The attempted raid not only brings many smaller players on one platform but will also test the issue of corruption in 2019 elections. It worked in 2014. However, same can’t be said today when the focus has turned to economy and jobs where it has failed miserably. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

West Bengal fiasco: Credibility of CBI is the issue and not Mamata vs Modi

With just months away for the Lok Sabha elections, the opposition is not leaving any stone unturned to consolidate power into its hands. 
 
Besides the frequent showcase of the "United Front" on several occasions, the parties have been involved in evolving arithmetic to keep the "Modi-Shah might" out of power.

Days before the arch-rivals BSP-SP joined hands and entered into a pre-poll alliance for the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh. The two parties decided to fight elections on an equal number of seats leaving the two Congress bastion.

Exhibiting another showcase of unity, around 25 leaders from over 20 political parties held out a "united rally" in Kolkata on January 19. 
 
Led by Mamata Banerjee the rally was attended by leaders from across the country. The "United Front" saw the presence of Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah from the National Conference, HD Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy from the JD(S), TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu, DMK's MK Stalin, AIUDF's Badruddin Ajmal, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal, SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, RJD's Tejashwi Yadav and many others including Mallikarjun Kharge from the Congress. Former NDA stalwart Arun Shourie, Yashwant Sinha, and BJP rebel Shatrughan Sinha also participated in the event along with NCP leader Sharad Pawar, Patidar leader Hardik Patel, Dalit leader Jignesh Mewani.

Joining hands on the dais the opposition hit out at the Modi government over demonetisation, GST, Rafale deal and the alleged "rising intolerance" in the country.

The "United opposition" against the current government shows a repeat of the opposition unity of 1977 which had successfully dethroned the first ever Congress government out of power. Fighting under the slogan "Indira hatao, desh bachao", the opposition had defeated Indira Gandhi and formed the first ever non-Congress government in India in 1977. 
 
Morarji Desai who became the fourth prime minister of the country, however, could not complete his tenure in the office. His government had to end its term midway due to the unsuccessful coalition. 
 
The next government formed under the leadership of Charan Singh also held an unsuccessful term in the office due to the rising conflict in the coalition. Singh could not complete his term after Indira Gandhi led Congress government suspended its support.

The country could never have a successful coalition government until 1998. The first ever non-Congress and coalition government that completed its full term in the country was headed by Atal Bihari Vajpayee.

Prior to Vajpayee's government, HD Deve Gowda, the eleventh prime minister of the country, also held an unsuccessful term and was removed from power within a year. Deve Gowda, the kingmaker of the 1996 general elections played a significant role in the formation of the government by extending support to the Congress party which had secured the second highest votes in the elections. BJP which won the highest votes remained out of power and was the main opposition in the parliament.

The current political situation of the country also foresees the rise of yet another Deve Gowda. While the entire opposition is fighting the 2019 elections against the BJP, the country may see the emergence of a new Deve Gowda if the results throw a hung assembly after the Lok Sabha polls.

Mamata Banerjee's slogan in the rally was "Badal do, Badal do, Dilli mei sarkar badal do". The front, however, does not have a prime ministerial face to replace the "Sarkar in Dilli".

While the BSP-SP alliance in Uttar Pradesh has clarified that the next prime minister of the country will be from UP, Mamata Banerjee is also seen as a strong contender to lead the Front in the next Lok Sabha.

Playing a masterstroke just days before the elections, the Congress appointed Priyanka Gandhi as the party general secretary in-charge of Uttar Pradesh East. The move is seen as an answer to rival parties' constant questioning of Rahul Gandhi's calibre in representing the party.&nbsp;

Thus while the opposition has united against the common power, keeping aside its ideological differences, the absence of strong leadership in the Front may affect the coalition even after its victory.&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

 
&nbsp;

With just months away for the Lok Sabha elections, the opposition is not leaving any stone unturned to consolidate power into its hands. Besides the frequent showcase of the "United Front" on several occasions, the parties have been involved in evolving arithmetic to keep the "Modi-Shah might" out of power.

With just months away for the Lok Sabha elections, the opposition is not leaving any stone unturned to consolidate power into its hands. Besides the frequent showcase of the "United Front" on several occasions, the parties have been involved in evolving arithmetic to keep the "Modi-Shah might" out of power. Days before the arch-rivals BSP-SP joined hands and entered into a pre-poll alliance for the Lok Sabha elections in Uttar Pradesh. The two parties decided to fight elections on an equal number of seats leaving the two Congress bastion. Exhibiting another showcase of unity, around 25 leaders from over 20 political parties held out a "united rally" in Kolkata on January 19. Led by Mamata Banerjee the rally was attended by leaders from across the country. The "United Front" saw the presence of Farooq Abdullah and Omar Abdullah from the National Conference, HD Deve Gowda and Kumaraswamy from the JD(S), TDP leader Chandrababu Naidu, DMK's MK Stalin, AIUDF's Badruddin Ajmal, AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal, SP leader Akhilesh Yadav, RJD's Tejashwi Yadav and many others including Mallikarjun Kharge from the Congress. Former NDA stalwart Arun Shourie, Yashwant Sinha, and BJP rebel Shatrughan Sinha also participated in the event along with NCP leader Sharad Pawar, Patidar leader Hardik Patel, Dalit leader Jignesh Mewani. Joining hands on the dais the opposition hit out at the Modi government over demonetisation, GST, Rafale deal and the alleged "rising intolerance" in the country. The "United opposition" against the current government shows a repeat of the opposition unity of 1977 which had successfully dethroned the first ever Congress government out of power. Fighting under the slogan "Indira hatao, desh bachao", the opposition had defeated Indira Gandhi and formed the first ever non-Congress government in India in 1977. Morarji Desai who became the fourth prime minister of the country, however, could not complete his tenure in the office. His government had to end its term midway due to the unsuccessful coalition. The next government formed under the leadership of Charan Singh also held an unsuccessful term in the office due to the rising conflict in the coalition. Singh could not complete his term after Indira Gandhi led Congress government suspended its support. The country could never have a successful coalition government until 1998. The first ever non-Congress and coalition government that completed its full term in the country was headed by Atal Bihari Vajpayee. Prior to Vajpayee's government, HD Deve Gowda, the eleventh prime minister of the country, also held an unsuccessful term and was removed from power within a year. Deve Gowda, the kingmaker of the 1996 general elections played a significant role in the formation of the government by extending support to the Congress party which had secured the second highest votes in the elections. BJP which won the highest votes remained out of power and was the main opposition in the parliament. The current political situation of the country also foresees the rise of yet another Deve Gowda. While the entire opposition is fighting the 2019 elections against the BJP, the country may see the emergence of a new Deve Gowda if the results throw a hung assembly after the Lok Sabha polls. Mamata Banerjee's slogan in the rally was "Badal do, Badal do, Dilli mei sarkar badal do". The front, however, does not have a prime ministerial face to replace the "Sarkar in Dilli". While the BSP-SP alliance in Uttar Pradesh has clarified that the next prime minister of the country will be from UP, Mamata Banerjee is also seen as a strong contender to lead the Front in the next Lok Sabha. Playing a masterstroke just days before the elections, the Congress appointed Priyanka Gandhi as the party general secretary in-charge of Uttar Pradesh East. The move is seen as an answer to rival parties' constant questioning of Rahul Gandhi's calibre in representing the party. Thus while the opposition has united against the common power, keeping aside its ideological differences, the absence of strong leadership in the Front may affect the coalition even after its victory. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

How far will the united opposition go without prime ministerial face?

Calling the <a href="http://www.wionews.com/business-economy/union-budget-2019-no-income-tax-for-annual-income-upto-rs-5-lakh-says-piyush-goyal-194324">interim Budget </a>presented by Centre on Friday as "yet another jumla", the Congress hit out at the BJP led government claiming that the Budget was an insult to the farmers.

The Congress post on its Twitter handle said, "After having failed to deliver on any of the promises to farmers, Modi govt insults them once again with yet another jumla !".

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
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After having failed to deliver on any of the promises to farmers, Modi govt insults them once again with yet another jumla!<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Budget2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Budget2019</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AakhriJumlaBudget?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AakhriJumlaBudget</a> <a href="https://t.co/f6ocdzKByS">pic.twitter.com/f6ocdzKByS</a>
— Congress (@INCIndia) <a href="https://twitter.com/INCIndia/status/1091267874138644480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 1, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Party President Rahul Gandhi also targetted the <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/budget-will-take-india-on-path-to-development-pm-modi-194378">Modi government</a> over the <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/big-takeaways-from-union-budget-2019-194331">Budget</a>.

" Dear NoMo, 5 years of your incompetence and arrogance has destroyed the lives of our farmers. Giving them Rs. 17 a day is an insult to everything they stand and work for, " Gandhi's tweet read.

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Dear NoMo, 
 
5 years of your incompetence and arrogance has destroyed the lives of our farmers. 
 
Giving them Rs. 17 a day is an insult to everything they stand and work for. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/AakhriJumlaBudget?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#AakhriJumlaBudget</a>
— Rahul Gandhi (@RahulGandhi) <a href="https://twitter.com/RahulGandhi/status/1091267096938467328?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 1, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Former Union minister and Congress leader P Chidambaram termed the Budget as "an account for votes" adding that the 2019&nbsp;Budget was accompanied by an election campaign speech.

"The Interim Finance Minister tested our patience by the longest interim Budget speech in the recent memory. It was not an interim Budget, it was a full-fledged Budget accompanied by an election campaign speech.... My one line comment on the Budget is that it is not a vote on account but an account for votes."

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P Chidambaram, Congress on <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Budget2019?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Budget2019</a>: The Interim Finance Minister tested our patience by the longest interim budget speech in the recent memory. It was not an interim budget, it was a full fledged budget accompanied by an election campaign speech. <a href="https://t.co/AlY8uxmQpD">https://t.co/AlY8uxmQpD</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1091263193190522881?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 1, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Congress leader Shashi Tharoor questioned the credibility of the&nbsp;income support assured to the farmers under the Budget. He however praised the government's move of providing tax exemption to the middle class.

Tharoor said, " The whole exercise has turned out to be a damp squib. We have seen one good thing that is tax exemption for the middle class. Rs 6000 in income support for farmers boils down to Rs 500 per month. Is that supposed to enable them to live with the honour and dignity?"

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S Tharoor, Congress: The whole exercise has turned out to be a damp squib. We've seen one good thing that is tax exemption for the middle class. Rs 6000 in income support for farmers boils down to Rs 500 per month. Is that supposed to enable them to live with the honour&amp;dignity? <a href="https://t.co/kZDRhkKSWi">pic.twitter.com/kZDRhkKSWi</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1091250025655463938?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 1, 2019</a></blockquote>
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TMC chief Mamata Banerjee said, "This government has no moral authority or responsibility to place the budget for five years when they'll not be in power; the government will go for expiry. After expiry, if you give medicine, is there any value? What will be the value? This is absolutely valueless".

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WB CM Mamata Banerjee: This govt has no moral authority or responsibility to place the budget for 5 years when they'll not be in power; the govt will go for expiry. After expiry, if you give medicine, is there any value? What will be the value? This is absolutely valueless. <a href="https://t.co/rK4CBge5Sw">pic.twitter.com/rK4CBge5Sw</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1091283305909997570?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 1, 2019</a></blockquote>
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Speaking to reporters outside Parliament, leader of Congress in Lok Sabha Mallikarjun Kharge said the promises made by the BJP in this Budget are mere poll sops and "jumlas", which will not be fulfilled as the BJP has a mandate to rule only till May this year.

Further calling it as BJP's election manifesto, he charged the party of bribing to voters.

"This is all being done for elections. I directly charge them of paying bribe to voters.There is politics in everything they do and there is nothing for the poor in this budget...This budget is only an election manifesto that the BJP read in Parliament and it is only for getting votes," Kharge said.

"They are distributing money in elections to please farmers, but the reality is that in the first three months they would give only Rs 2,000 in first instalment," he said.

On the announcement of Income Tax exemption up to Rs 5 lakh to tax-payers, he alleged the BJP parliamentarians are creating a 'tamasha' in Parliament.

"You have a mandate up to May and instead they have presented a full year's Budget and are trying to befool the people of the country, keeping elections in mind.

"Who will fulfil these promises made. If they do not come to power, who will fulfil these promises. The next government will come and only it can deliver".

Karnataka chief minister Kumaraswamy said, "I want to ask if this Budget was prepared by officials of Finance department or RSS? In this Budget, Narendra Modi has given cotton candy for farmers. When I announced loan waiver scheme, PM mocked it as lollipop. Friends of BJP have prepared this budget".

(With inputs from agencies)

Calling the interim Budget presented by Centre on Friday as "yet another jumla", the Congress hit out at the BJP led government claiming that the Budget was an insult to the farmers.

Calling the interim Budget presented by Centre on Friday as "yet another jumla", the Congress hit out at the BJP led government claiming that the Budget was an insult to the farmers. The Congress post on its Twitter handle said, "After having failed to deliver on any of the promises to farmers, Modi govt insults them once again with yet another jumla !". After having failed to deliver on any of the promises to farmers, Modi govt insults them once again with yet another jumla!#Budget2019 #AakhriJumlaBudget pic.twitter.com/f6ocdzKByS — Congress (@INCIndia) February 1, 2019 × Party President Rahul Gandhi also targetted the Modi government over the Budget. " Dear NoMo, 5 years of your incompetence and arrogance has destroyed the lives of our farmers. Giving them Rs. 17 a day is an insult to everything they stand and work for, " Gandhi's tweet read. Dear NoMo, 5 years of your incompetence and arrogance has destroyed the lives of our farmers. Giving them Rs. 17 a day is an insult to everything they stand and work for. #AakhriJumlaBudget — Rahul Gandhi (@RahulGandhi) February 1, 2019 × Former Union minister and Congress leader P Chidambaram termed the Budget as "an account for votes" adding that the 2019 Budget was accompanied by an election campaign speech. "The Interim Finance Minister tested our patience by the longest interim Budget speech in the recent memory. It was not an interim Budget, it was a full-fledged Budget accompanied by an election campaign speech.... My one line comment on the Budget is that it is not a vote on account but an account for votes." P Chidambaram, Congress on #Budget2019: The Interim Finance Minister tested our patience by the longest interim budget speech in the recent memory. It was not an interim budget, it was a full fledged budget accompanied by an election campaign speech. https://t.co/AlY8uxmQpD — ANI (@ANI) February 1, 2019 × Congress leader Shashi Tharoor questioned the credibility of the income support assured to the farmers under the Budget. He however praised the government's move of providing tax exemption to the middle class. Tharoor said, " The whole exercise has turned out to be a damp squib. We have seen one good thing that is tax exemption for the middle class. Rs 6000 in income support for farmers boils down to Rs 500 per month. Is that supposed to enable them to live with the honour and dignity?" S Tharoor, Congress: The whole exercise has turned out to be a damp squib. We've seen one good thing that is tax exemption for the middle class. Rs 6000 in income support for farmers boils down to Rs 500 per month. Is that supposed to enable them to live with the honour&dignity? pic.twitter.com/kZDRhkKSWi — ANI (@ANI) February 1, 2019 × TMC chief Mamata Banerjee said, "This government has no moral authority or responsibility to place the budget for five years when they'll not be in power; the government will go for expiry. After expiry, if you give medicine, is there any value? What will be the value? This is absolutely valueless". WB CM Mamata Banerjee: This govt has no moral authority or responsibility to place the budget for 5 years when they'll not be in power; the govt will go for expiry. After expiry, if you give medicine, is there any value? What will be the value? This is absolutely valueless. pic.twitter.com/rK4CBge5Sw — ANI (@ANI) February 1, 2019 × Speaking to reporters outside Parliament, leader of Congress in Lok Sabha Mallikarjun Kharge said the promises made by the BJP in this Budget are mere poll sops and "jumlas", which will not be fulfilled as the BJP has a mandate to rule only till May this year. Further calling it as BJP's election manifesto, he charged the party of bribing to voters. "This is all being done for elections. I directly charge them of paying bribe to voters.There is politics in everything they do and there is nothing for the poor in this budget...This budget is only an election manifesto that the BJP read in Parliament and it is only for getting votes," Kharge said. "They are distributing money in elections to please farmers, but the reality is that in the first three months they would give only Rs 2,000 in first instalment," he said. On the announcement of Income Tax exemption up to Rs 5 lakh to tax-payers, he alleged the BJP parliamentarians are creating a 'tamasha' in Parliament. "You have a mandate up to May and instead they have presented a full year's Budget and are trying to befool the people of the country, keeping elections in mind. "Who will fulfil these promises made. If they do not come to power, who will fulfil these promises. The next government will come and only it can deliver". Karnataka chief minister Kumaraswamy said, "I want to ask if this Budget was prepared by officials of Finance department or RSS? In this Budget, Narendra Modi has given cotton candy for farmers. When I announced loan waiver scheme, PM mocked it as lollipop. Friends of BJP have prepared this budget". (With inputs from agencies)

It was not an interim Budget but a full fledged Budget: Chidambaram

On an oppressively hot June day in Lucknow 23 years ago, events unfolded that could impact the 2019 Lok Sabha election. &nbsp;Samajwadi Party (SP) founder Mulayam Singh Yadav was chief minister of Uttar Pradesh. SP had 109 seats in the 425-seat Uttar Pradesh Assembly. It was supported in a tense if outwardly cordial coalition government by Kanshi Ram’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with 67 seats. Mayawati, then 39-year-old and BSP’s general secretary was a rising star of the party.

On the evening of June 2, 1995, fearing that BSP would withdraw support for the SP-led coalition government, several SP MLAs and workers attacked a group of BSP MLAs closeted in a strategy meeting in the Lucknow state guest house.&nbsp;

The SP leaders’ aim was to break the BSP party by intimidating its MLAs. What followed exposed the violent DNA that characterises the SP even today.

As a leading daily reported on June 3, 1995, in an article titled Mulayam’s men attack BSP legislators’ meet: “The Samajwadi Party workers, armed with rifles and weapons, barged into a meeting room of the BSP workers…and assaulted the BSP legislators, ‘kidnapping’ some of them.&nbsp;

Senior BSP leaders, including Mayawati, slipped into a suite reserved for her in the guest house. The Lucknow SSP, OP Singh, as well as his men, were a mute witness as the SP men snapped the telephone and power lines…and started beating (the BSP MLAs) with lathis. About 300 SP miscreants were led by over a dozen party MLAs, mostly with a criminal background.” &nbsp;

The impact on Uttar Pradesh politics was immediate and dramatic. Motilal Vora, the longtime Congress loyalist (and currently in the news as one of those on bail in the National Herald case), was governor of Uttar Pradesh. Acting on Prime Minister Narasimha Rao’s advice, Vora promptly sacked Mulayam’s government on June 3.&nbsp;

The chief minister was not given an opportunity to prove his majority on the floor of the assembly. In an era bereft of television, social media and PIL activists, the Congress action went unchallenged.&nbsp;

But the Narasimha Rao government was in for a surprise. Within hours of Mulayam’s sacking, Mayawati tied up with the BJP and Janata Dal to extend outside support. She was sworn in as chief minister of Uttar Pradesh the same evening.&nbsp;

The ensuing decades-long enmity between the BSP and SP ensured that elections in Uttar Pradesh would henceforth be multi-cornered. The decline of the Congress, which had governed Uttar Pradesh for most of the period from 1950 to 1989, but never after 1989, coincided with the rise of Mayawati and the growing electoral importance of the Dalit vote.&nbsp;

Today Mayawati could prove the biggest obstacle for Congress president Rahul Gandhi in his bid to lead the anti-Narendra Modi mahagathbandhan.

Mayawati takes slights to heart. It took 23 years and an electoral wipeout of the BSP in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, for Mayawati to again collaborate with the SP’s new leadership under Akhilesh Yadav who was 18-year-old when the Lucknow state guest house attack took place.&nbsp;

Mayawati declared at her press conference with Akhilesh after formalising the BSP-SP pact in Uttar Pradesh that BSP would never support the Congress in the state or nationally. Mayawati, not Akhilesh, vetoed inclusion of the Congress in 2019 UP gathbandhan.&nbsp;

Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra’s entry into frontline politics in Uttar Pradesh complicates matters. The battle between Mayawati, guarding her turf in Uttar Pradesh, and Priyanka, seeking to re-establish Congress in the state, could lead to unintended consequences for both.

Sterner tests meanwhile await Mayawati at the national level. Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee has thrown her hat into the mahagathbandhan ring. Meanwhile, the YSRCP’s Jaganmohan Reddy, TRS’s K Chandrashekar Rao and BJD’s Naveen Patnaik are manoeuvring to form a non-BJP, non-Congress front.

As Opposition leaders jockey for position, the Congress may be left with the task of being an anti-Modi choreographer, not a principal actor. That task could come down to a contest between Mayawati and Mamata. With each likely to win between 25 and 30 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, they will need to attract the non-BJP, non-Congress Third Front to join them in a coalition government and seek Congress support from within or outside.

Mayawati has a record as a tough administrator, but her government was beset with accusations of corruption, though none have been proved. Mamata too is under a cloud in the Saradha and Rosy Blue probes. Rahul Gandhi could thus end up as queen-maker.&nbsp;

With around 100 seats in 2019, the Congress will be the second largest party after the BJP. Rahul will have to put his prime ministerial ambitions on hold while he decides who between Mayawati and Mamata poses the least potent long-term threat to the Congress.

Watching this drama unfold, Modi and his Svengali Amit Shah will be doing some plotting of their own. As the events of June 3, 1995, demonstrated, the BJP and BSP have done business together. Mayawati is as unpredictable as Modi is imperturbable. Uttar Pradesh lifted him to power in 2014. Five years later, while the 10 per cent quota for economically weaker sections (EWS) may help the BJP arrest the alienation of UP’s upper castes, the Mayawati-Akhilesh gathbandhan could determine his future.&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-mayawati-holds-the-key-to-2019-2714388">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

 
&nbsp;

On an oppressively hot June day in Lucknow 23 years ago, events unfolded that could impact the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Samajwadi Party (SP) founder Mulayam Singh Yadav was chief minister of Uttar Pradesh.

On an oppressively hot June day in Lucknow 23 years ago, events unfolded that could impact the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Samajwadi Party (SP) founder Mulayam Singh Yadav was chief minister of Uttar Pradesh. SP had 109 seats in the 425-seat Uttar Pradesh Assembly. It was supported in a tense if outwardly cordial coalition government by Kanshi Ram’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with 67 seats. Mayawati, then 39-year-old and BSP’s general secretary was a rising star of the party. On the evening of June 2, 1995, fearing that BSP would withdraw support for the SP-led coalition government, several SP MLAs and workers attacked a group of BSP MLAs closeted in a strategy meeting in the Lucknow state guest house. The SP leaders’ aim was to break the BSP party by intimidating its MLAs. What followed exposed the violent DNA that characterises the SP even today. As a leading daily reported on June 3, 1995, in an article titled Mulayam’s men attack BSP legislators’ meet: “The Samajwadi Party workers, armed with rifles and weapons, barged into a meeting room of the BSP workers…and assaulted the BSP legislators, ‘kidnapping’ some of them. Senior BSP leaders, including Mayawati, slipped into a suite reserved for her in the guest house. The Lucknow SSP, OP Singh, as well as his men, were a mute witness as the SP men snapped the telephone and power lines…and started beating (the BSP MLAs) with lathis. About 300 SP miscreants were led by over a dozen party MLAs, mostly with a criminal background.” The impact on Uttar Pradesh politics was immediate and dramatic. Motilal Vora, the longtime Congress loyalist (and currently in the news as one of those on bail in the National Herald case), was governor of Uttar Pradesh. Acting on Prime Minister Narasimha Rao’s advice, Vora promptly sacked Mulayam’s government on June 3. The chief minister was not given an opportunity to prove his majority on the floor of the assembly. In an era bereft of television, social media and PIL activists, the Congress action went unchallenged. But the Narasimha Rao government was in for a surprise. Within hours of Mulayam’s sacking, Mayawati tied up with the BJP and Janata Dal to extend outside support. She was sworn in as chief minister of Uttar Pradesh the same evening. The ensuing decades-long enmity between the BSP and SP ensured that elections in Uttar Pradesh would henceforth be multi-cornered. The decline of the Congress, which had governed Uttar Pradesh for most of the period from 1950 to 1989, but never after 1989, coincided with the rise of Mayawati and the growing electoral importance of the Dalit vote. Today Mayawati could prove the biggest obstacle for Congress president Rahul Gandhi in his bid to lead the anti-Narendra Modi mahagathbandhan. Mayawati takes slights to heart. It took 23 years and an electoral wipeout of the BSP in the 2014 Lok Sabha election, for Mayawati to again collaborate with the SP’s new leadership under Akhilesh Yadav who was 18-year-old when the Lucknow state guest house attack took place. Mayawati declared at her press conference with Akhilesh after formalising the BSP-SP pact in Uttar Pradesh that BSP would never support the Congress in the state or nationally. Mayawati, not Akhilesh, vetoed inclusion of the Congress in 2019 UP gathbandhan. Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra’s entry into frontline politics in Uttar Pradesh complicates matters. The battle between Mayawati, guarding her turf in Uttar Pradesh, and Priyanka, seeking to re-establish Congress in the state, could lead to unintended consequences for both. Sterner tests meanwhile await Mayawati at the national level. Trinamool Congress leader Mamata Banerjee has thrown her hat into the mahagathbandhan ring. Meanwhile, the YSRCP’s Jaganmohan Reddy, TRS’s K Chandrashekar Rao and BJD’s Naveen Patnaik are manoeuvring to form a non-BJP, non-Congress front. As Opposition leaders jockey for position, the Congress may be left with the task of being an anti-Modi choreographer, not a principal actor. That task could come down to a contest between Mayawati and Mamata. With each likely to win between 25 and 30 Lok Sabha seats in 2019, they will need to attract the non-BJP, non-Congress Third Front to join them in a coalition government and seek Congress support from within or outside. Mayawati has a record as a tough administrator, but her government was beset with accusations of corruption, though none have been proved. Mamata too is under a cloud in the Saradha and Rosy Blue probes. Rahul Gandhi could thus end up as queen-maker. With around 100 seats in 2019, the Congress will be the second largest party after the BJP. Rahul will have to put his prime ministerial ambitions on hold while he decides who between Mayawati and Mamata poses the least potent long-term threat to the Congress. Watching this drama unfold, Modi and his Svengali Amit Shah will be doing some plotting of their own. As the events of June 3, 1995, demonstrated, the BJP and BSP have done business together. Mayawati is as unpredictable as Modi is imperturbable. Uttar Pradesh lifted him to power in 2014. Five years later, while the 10 per cent quota for economically weaker sections (EWS) may help the BJP arrest the alienation of UP’s upper castes, the Mayawati-Akhilesh gathbandhan could determine his future. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Mayawati holds the key to 2019

The Hugo Chavez model of politics pivoting around the concept of neopatrimonialism was followed with determined zeal by the previous Manmohan Singh-led UPA government at the Centre, presided over by the then Congress party president Sonia Gandhi.

The drawback of the model that was carved and implemented to the hilt by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez between 2002 and 2013, a period that almost coincided with the Manmohan Singh's rule in India, was more tuned to addressing social inequalities rather than structural inequalities.

The present job crisis in India can be attributed and described as a direct fallout of the politics of populism practiced by the Congress party when it was in power between 2004 and 2014 since equity distribution was lopsided and the growth on economic infrastructure front also was compromised with maximum focus on direct cash transfer to the deprived sections through acts passed by the Indian Parliament to guarantee jobs, food, and education. While doing this, they typically aped the cash transfer policy that was being followed in Brazil and Mexico without bothering about the impact it would leave on the middle class wage earners and the economic growth of the country.

Following on the same footsteps, present Congress president Rahul Gandhi announced at a "Kisan Abhaar Sammelan" at Raipur this Monday that his party would implement a minimum income guarantee scheme for every poor if his party comes to power at the Centre this year.

Former finance minister P Chidambaram has laced the Congress decision regarding "minimum income guarantee" with the assertion that it would "wipe out poverty" and uplift about one-fifth of India's population that lacks the purchasing power to provide itself food, clothing and shelter.

Chidambaram has defended the decision by pointing out that India owes itself the responsibility of mobilising resources to rescue the deprived sections caught in the trap of poverty. For this purpose only 1.5 per cent of the GDP would be required and there should be no difficulty in meeting the target, he adds.

Before the nation goes to polls, the Congress party, through the sop of "minimum income guarantee", has tried to address that section of the Indian population which is suffering the most due to joblessness and poverty. According to basic estimates their number is huge - about 200 million. Obviously, the Congress party would like to use them as a vote bank in the coming parliamentary election.

Scarcity of jobs is a burning problem that is haunting the NDA government led by Narendra Modi at the Centre in a big way as its five year term is nearing completion.

Joblessness in India is an issue that has caught the attention of analysts in neighbouring China. Global Times, published under China's official People's Daily, also points to growing discontent, being faced by Prime Minister Modi. Hu Weijia, a reporter with the Global Times says: "If New Delhi restricts Chinese investment, the move will unavoidably cut job opportunities for young people (In India)."

Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) also has expressed concerns about financing and the lending environment in India "due to the collapse of Indian infrastructure development and high rate of non-performing assets among Indian banks" in its inaugural Asian Infrastructure Finance report released in Beijing on Tuesday.

The AIIB report talks of the downward trajectory when it comes to India's infrastructure transaction activity in terms of total completed and ongoing transactions each year from 2014 to 2016.

Economists and analysts of the long-term South Asian scenario, especially in the backdrop of the China-US trade disputes that have got aggravated by the US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, have started talking of the advantages of Chinese companies investing in India's labour intensive industries. The Global Times has underscored that the Modi administration needs good news in terms of job growth ahead of the upcoming general election.

The projection by commentators exploring the prospects of mutual gain by both India and China under the current global scenario notwithstanding, what cannot be ignored is that the clock is ticking for Modi. Come elections and the top bulb of the sandglass will soon be empty.

Instead of populism, it is important at this juncture to address the issue of highly unequal levels of development, human development index and lopsided distribution of equity. Seeking investments and channelising resources for the purpose of building the economic infrastructure, so essential for improving the quality of life of the people across the board, should be the priority. Ahead of elections, the Modi government will have to take the Congress head on. Without wasting time, it will have to place on the table a policy design for evolving and creating a vibrant job market in India.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The Hugo Chavez model of politics pivoting around the concept of neopatrimonialism was followed with determined zeal by the previous Manmohan Singh-led UPA government at the Centre, presided over by the then Congress party president Sonia Gandhi.

The Hugo Chavez model of politics pivoting around the concept of neopatrimonialism was followed with determined zeal by the previous Manmohan Singh-led UPA government at the Centre, presided over by the then Congress party president Sonia Gandhi. The drawback of the model that was carved and implemented to the hilt by Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez between 2002 and 2013, a period that almost coincided with the Manmohan Singh's rule in India, was more tuned to addressing social inequalities rather than structural inequalities. The present job crisis in India can be attributed and described as a direct fallout of the politics of populism practiced by the Congress party when it was in power between 2004 and 2014 since equity distribution was lopsided and the growth on economic infrastructure front also was compromised with maximum focus on direct cash transfer to the deprived sections through acts passed by the Indian Parliament to guarantee jobs, food, and education. While doing this, they typically aped the cash transfer policy that was being followed in Brazil and Mexico without bothering about the impact it would leave on the middle class wage earners and the economic growth of the country. Following on the same footsteps, present Congress president Rahul Gandhi announced at a "Kisan Abhaar Sammelan" at Raipur this Monday that his party would implement a minimum income guarantee scheme for every poor if his party comes to power at the Centre this year. Former finance minister P Chidambaram has laced the Congress decision regarding "minimum income guarantee" with the assertion that it would "wipe out poverty" and uplift about one-fifth of India's population that lacks the purchasing power to provide itself food, clothing and shelter. Chidambaram has defended the decision by pointing out that India owes itself the responsibility of mobilising resources to rescue the deprived sections caught in the trap of poverty. For this purpose only 1.5 per cent of the GDP would be required and there should be no difficulty in meeting the target, he adds. Before the nation goes to polls, the Congress party, through the sop of "minimum income guarantee", has tried to address that section of the Indian population which is suffering the most due to joblessness and poverty. According to basic estimates their number is huge - about 200 million. Obviously, the Congress party would like to use them as a vote bank in the coming parliamentary election. Scarcity of jobs is a burning problem that is haunting the NDA government led by Narendra Modi at the Centre in a big way as its five year term is nearing completion. Joblessness in India is an issue that has caught the attention of analysts in neighbouring China. Global Times, published under China's official People's Daily, also points to growing discontent, being faced by Prime Minister Modi. Hu Weijia, a reporter with the Global Times says: "If New Delhi restricts Chinese investment, the move will unavoidably cut job opportunities for young people (In India)." Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) also has expressed concerns about financing and the lending environment in India "due to the collapse of Indian infrastructure development and high rate of non-performing assets among Indian banks" in its inaugural Asian Infrastructure Finance report released in Beijing on Tuesday. The AIIB report talks of the downward trajectory when it comes to India's infrastructure transaction activity in terms of total completed and ongoing transactions each year from 2014 to 2016. Economists and analysts of the long-term South Asian scenario, especially in the backdrop of the China-US trade disputes that have got aggravated by the US President Donald Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Chinese imports, have started talking of the advantages of Chinese companies investing in India's labour intensive industries. The Global Times has underscored that the Modi administration needs good news in terms of job growth ahead of the upcoming general election. The projection by commentators exploring the prospects of mutual gain by both India and China under the current global scenario notwithstanding, what cannot be ignored is that the clock is ticking for Modi. Come elections and the top bulb of the sandglass will soon be empty. Instead of populism, it is important at this juncture to address the issue of highly unequal levels of development, human development index and lopsided distribution of equity. Seeking investments and channelising resources for the purpose of building the economic infrastructure, so essential for improving the quality of life of the people across the board, should be the priority. Ahead of elections, the Modi government will have to take the Congress head on. Without wasting time, it will have to place on the table a policy design for evolving and creating a vibrant job market in India. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Minimum income guarantee: Populism versus long-term policy for a vibrant job market

The last trump card of the Congress Party is out in open and has made Lok Sabha elections all the more interesting. It is not that Priyanka Gandhi is a novice in politics but the position of general secretary in charge of Eastern Uttar Pradesh only acknowledges the role she was playing in private in the Congress Party.

It also shows that nothing is cast in stone in politics. In fact, Priyanka Gandhi was already handling Sonia Gandhi’s constituency when Rahul Gandhi was studying abroad in the late 1990s. The code name given to her by the Special Protection Group was Bhaiya ji. It is used even today throughout Raebarelli and Amethi but this time by the party workers. It was only because of Sonia Gandhi’s insistence that baton was passed to Rahul despite the fact that Priyanka was interested in politics.&nbsp;

This decision led to Priyanka Gandhi getting confined to family bastions in Uttar Pradesh. Even then she remained connected with the decision-making process of the party in private.&nbsp;

Throughout she had been in charge of the family burrow and played an important role in 2017 UP Assembly elections which in the end proved to be a disaster as BJP smashed SP-Congress coalition.

So, her entry does not change the caste equations in Uttar Pradesh. Priyanka Gandhi, for now, only changes the mood within the party. Her entry will definitely enthuse workers. She is only in charge of Eastern UP and the Western part will be handled by Jyotiraditya Scindia whose graph continues to rise within the Congress party.

What is important to remember is that Eastern UP is the stronghold of current chief minister Yogi Adityanath who hails from Gorakhpur. Prime Minister Modi’s constituency also falls in this area.

The decision also shows the seriousness with which Congress is going to fight elections in Uttar Pradesh. It should worry the BJP as Priyanka can disrupt upper caste consolidation which, as of now, is standing solidly behind BJP.

There can be criticism too that Congress has become a party of the mother, son and daughter but it will not damage the party as those opposed to them are anyways voting for BJP.

Priyanka, on the other hand, will have to navigate the political space in Congress more carefully. Today, Rahul Gandhi is the party president and decides the policy of Congress. Priyanka Gandhi will have to limit herself to Uttar Pradesh.

She will also have to ensure that a second power centre does not emerge as Congress under Rahul Gandhi has gained stability after Sonia Gandhi reduced her public presence and forced the senior leadership to negotiate decision making with Rahul alone. Priyanka will easily get compared to Indira Gandhi. This will also make her task difficult. It will heighten the expectations within the party despite the fact that ground reality is quite different today.

In 2014, the winning margin of Rahul Gandhi came down by a lakh. In 2017, Congress performed very poorly in the assembly segments. Priyanka Gandhi will add a lot of glamour to the Congress party, but she will have to create a new ground for the party in the state. But the possibility exists. People forget that same Congress got 20+ seats in Lok Sabha after the then PM Manmohan Singh waived off farmers debt.

The enthusiasm generated by debuts is often succeeded by losses. It has been true for both Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. Sonia twice failed to get Congress into power. She lost both in 1998 and 1996 to BJP. It was worst for Rahul Gandhi. He lost 2014 elections and subsequently a number of states. The states where Congress won, the credit was given to the chief ministerial candidates.&nbsp;

This long spell of bad performance ended in 2019 when Congress swept the three Hindi heartland states. So, an entry can take place with a grand reception but road to success can be long and tiring. Priyanka Gandhi will have to negotiate the same path. 
&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

&nbsp;

The last trump card of the Congress Party is out in open and has made Lok Sabha elections all the more interesting. It is not that Priyanka Gandhi is a novice in politics but the position of general secretary in charge of Eastern Uttar Pradesh only acknowledges the role she was playing in private in the Congress Party.

The last trump card of the Congress Party is out in open and has made Lok Sabha elections all the more interesting. It is not that Priyanka Gandhi is a novice in politics but the position of general secretary in charge of Eastern Uttar Pradesh only acknowledges the role she was playing in private in the Congress Party. It also shows that nothing is cast in stone in politics. In fact, Priyanka Gandhi was already handling Sonia Gandhi’s constituency when Rahul Gandhi was studying abroad in the late 1990s. The code name given to her by the Special Protection Group was Bhaiya ji. It is used even today throughout Raebarelli and Amethi but this time by the party workers. It was only because of Sonia Gandhi’s insistence that baton was passed to Rahul despite the fact that Priyanka was interested in politics. This decision led to Priyanka Gandhi getting confined to family bastions in Uttar Pradesh. Even then she remained connected with the decision-making process of the party in private. Throughout she had been in charge of the family burrow and played an important role in 2017 UP Assembly elections which in the end proved to be a disaster as BJP smashed SP-Congress coalition. So, her entry does not change the caste equations in Uttar Pradesh. Priyanka Gandhi, for now, only changes the mood within the party. Her entry will definitely enthuse workers. She is only in charge of Eastern UP and the Western part will be handled by Jyotiraditya Scindia whose graph continues to rise within the Congress party. What is important to remember is that Eastern UP is the stronghold of current chief minister Yogi Adityanath who hails from Gorakhpur. Prime Minister Modi’s constituency also falls in this area. The decision also shows the seriousness with which Congress is going to fight elections in Uttar Pradesh. It should worry the BJP as Priyanka can disrupt upper caste consolidation which, as of now, is standing solidly behind BJP. There can be criticism too that Congress has become a party of the mother, son and daughter but it will not damage the party as those opposed to them are anyways voting for BJP. Priyanka, on the other hand, will have to navigate the political space in Congress more carefully. Today, Rahul Gandhi is the party president and decides the policy of Congress. Priyanka Gandhi will have to limit herself to Uttar Pradesh. She will also have to ensure that a second power centre does not emerge as Congress under Rahul Gandhi has gained stability after Sonia Gandhi reduced her public presence and forced the senior leadership to negotiate decision making with Rahul alone. Priyanka will easily get compared to Indira Gandhi. This will also make her task difficult. It will heighten the expectations within the party despite the fact that ground reality is quite different today. In 2014, the winning margin of Rahul Gandhi came down by a lakh. In 2017, Congress performed very poorly in the assembly segments. Priyanka Gandhi will add a lot of glamour to the Congress party, but she will have to create a new ground for the party in the state. But the possibility exists. People forget that same Congress got 20+ seats in Lok Sabha after the then PM Manmohan Singh waived off farmers debt. The enthusiasm generated by debuts is often succeeded by losses. It has been true for both Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. Sonia twice failed to get Congress into power. She lost both in 1998 and 1996 to BJP. It was worst for Rahul Gandhi. He lost 2014 elections and subsequently a number of states. The states where Congress won, the credit was given to the chief ministerial candidates. This long spell of bad performance ended in 2019 when Congress swept the three Hindi heartland states. So, an entry can take place with a grand reception but road to success can be long and tiring. Priyanka Gandhi will have to negotiate the same path. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Priyanka Gandhi enters active politics: Congress plays its last trump card

By now it should be obvious that there is going to be no grand national coalition to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2019. Instead, there would be mini-alliances at the state-level to contain the ruling party and dent Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal charisma. Some such partnerships have already been formalised.&nbsp;

In Uttar Pradesh, the BSP and the SP have joined hands; in Maharashtra, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party have decided to contest as a team; in Telangana, the TDP and the Congress are together. Besides, the possibility of the Congress and the DMK aligning with each other in Tamil Nadu, and the National Conference, PDP and the Congress striking a deal in J&amp;K, is strong. &nbsp; 
 
The prospect of a pre-poll national alternative to the BJP-led NDA is bleak despite the impressive show of solidarity among opposition leaders that was witnessed on Saturday at a rally organised by Mamata Banerjee in Kolkata.&nbsp;

Leader after leader in their speeches called for the ouster of the Modi-led NDA regime, accusing it of various improprieties. It must be recalled a similar show of strength had been seen some months ago in Bangalore when HD Kumaraswamy was sworn in as chief minister of Karnataka. It had led to speculation that at last, the opposition was on the way to uniting. But it did not happen. It’s not just that many regional parties are wary of partnering with the Congress. There are contradictions among the regional outfits themselves.&nbsp;

For instance, Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao has also launched his drive for a similar alternative, but he skipped the Kolkata event. The NCP will contest Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra in alliance with the Congress, but its leader Sharad Pawar was in attendance at Banerjee’s event which was billed to promote a regional front as opposed to a Congress-led one. BSP supremo Mayawati did not attend, though her Uttar Pradesh partner Akhilesh Yadav was there. Even DMK leader MK Stalin, who has endorsed Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s candidature as prime minister, was present in the Kolkata rally which certainly was not held to stamp its approval to Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. &nbsp;

Then there are the likes of powerful regional satraps such as Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal who refuse to play ball with the idea of the so-called federal front or align with the Congress, even as they position themselves in opposition to the BJP. The AIADMK too has consistently kept away from these initiatives, possibility because it wants to keep the doors open for a tie-up with the BJP in the coming months. &nbsp;

Given the confusion, it’s not surprising that regional parties who often attend grand programmes and vow to oust the Modi regime are bereft of both an acceptable face who will lead them to the national electoral battle and policy direction on issues of national importance. In fact, these are not even priorities for them, as they have stated time and again. The priority is to get rid of the Modi government; everything else is supposed to seamlessly follow thereafter. The problem is: Recent political history shows that ‘everything else’ does not follow.&nbsp;

In the run-up to the 1977 Lok Sabha poll, a large number of leaders belonging to various outfits got together and formed the Janata Party with the express and sole purpose to defeat Indira Gandhi and her Congress in the aftermath of Emergency. They had no other agenda — no economic policy, no foreign policy etc. They exploited the mood against her and won. But within months the unravelling began and in two years the government collapsed. The ‘oust one person’ agenda does not work by itself.&nbsp;

It is ironical that the Kolkata rally should have glorified coalition politics when some of the participants are having sleepless nights managing a coalition. Kumaraswamy had, for instance, only hours before the event, lamented that he had to run a coalition government. He said that he would have been able to govern far more efficiently had his party, the Janata Dal (Secular), been given a clear majority by the electorate. And who can forget his teary-eyed statement that coalition politics was a “poison” which he had been compelled to consume! &nbsp;

Besides, Kumaraswamy is currently facing a crisis in his home state, with reports of a few Congress MLAs ready to rebel. Two Independents have already withdrawn their support to his government. While the BJP has been blamed for seeking to destabilise the coalition regime, the fact is that the upheaval is largely due to friction within the Congress, divided into the DK Shivakumar and the Siddaramaiah camps, and the BJP is naturally hoping to cash in on the internecine conflict. &nbsp;

The perils of an unnatural coalition are manifest in the Karnataka example — as they were in the BJP-PDP alliance in Jammu &amp; Kashmir. Raising hands in unity on public platforms is one thing; contesting elections on the ground in an equally united fashion with a leader at the helm, is another.&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

By now it should be obvious that there is going to be no grand national coalition to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2019. Instead, there would be mini-alliances at the state-level to contain the ruling party and dent Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal charisma.

By now it should be obvious that there is going to be no grand national coalition to take on the Bharatiya Janata Party in 2019. Instead, there would be mini-alliances at the state-level to contain the ruling party and dent Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s personal charisma. Some such partnerships have already been formalised. In Uttar Pradesh, the BSP and the SP have joined hands; in Maharashtra, the Congress and the Nationalist Congress Party have decided to contest as a team; in Telangana, the TDP and the Congress are together. Besides, the possibility of the Congress and the DMK aligning with each other in Tamil Nadu, and the National Conference, PDP and the Congress striking a deal in J&K, is strong. The prospect of a pre-poll national alternative to the BJP-led NDA is bleak despite the impressive show of solidarity among opposition leaders that was witnessed on Saturday at a rally organised by Mamata Banerjee in Kolkata. Leader after leader in their speeches called for the ouster of the Modi-led NDA regime, accusing it of various improprieties. It must be recalled a similar show of strength had been seen some months ago in Bangalore when HD Kumaraswamy was sworn in as chief minister of Karnataka. It had led to speculation that at last, the opposition was on the way to uniting. But it did not happen. It’s not just that many regional parties are wary of partnering with the Congress. There are contradictions among the regional outfits themselves. For instance, Telangana Chief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao has also launched his drive for a similar alternative, but he skipped the Kolkata event. The NCP will contest Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra in alliance with the Congress, but its leader Sharad Pawar was in attendance at Banerjee’s event which was billed to promote a regional front as opposed to a Congress-led one. BSP supremo Mayawati did not attend, though her Uttar Pradesh partner Akhilesh Yadav was there. Even DMK leader MK Stalin, who has endorsed Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s candidature as prime minister, was present in the Kolkata rally which certainly was not held to stamp its approval to Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. Then there are the likes of powerful regional satraps such as Naveen Patnaik of the Biju Janata Dal who refuse to play ball with the idea of the so-called federal front or align with the Congress, even as they position themselves in opposition to the BJP. The AIADMK too has consistently kept away from these initiatives, possibility because it wants to keep the doors open for a tie-up with the BJP in the coming months. Given the confusion, it’s not surprising that regional parties who often attend grand programmes and vow to oust the Modi regime are bereft of both an acceptable face who will lead them to the national electoral battle and policy direction on issues of national importance. In fact, these are not even priorities for them, as they have stated time and again. The priority is to get rid of the Modi government; everything else is supposed to seamlessly follow thereafter. The problem is: Recent political history shows that ‘everything else’ does not follow. In the run-up to the 1977 Lok Sabha poll, a large number of leaders belonging to various outfits got together and formed the Janata Party with the express and sole purpose to defeat Indira Gandhi and her Congress in the aftermath of Emergency. They had no other agenda — no economic policy, no foreign policy etc. They exploited the mood against her and won. But within months the unravelling began and in two years the government collapsed. The ‘oust one person’ agenda does not work by itself. It is ironical that the Kolkata rally should have glorified coalition politics when some of the participants are having sleepless nights managing a coalition. Kumaraswamy had, for instance, only hours before the event, lamented that he had to run a coalition government. He said that he would have been able to govern far more efficiently had his party, the Janata Dal (Secular), been given a clear majority by the electorate. And who can forget his teary-eyed statement that coalition politics was a “poison” which he had been compelled to consume! Besides, Kumaraswamy is currently facing a crisis in his home state, with reports of a few Congress MLAs ready to rebel. Two Independents have already withdrawn their support to his government. While the BJP has been blamed for seeking to destabilise the coalition regime, the fact is that the upheaval is largely due to friction within the Congress, divided into the DK Shivakumar and the Siddaramaiah camps, and the BJP is naturally hoping to cash in on the internecine conflict. The perils of an unnatural coalition are manifest in the Karnataka example — as they were in the BJP-PDP alliance in Jammu & Kashmir. Raising hands in unity on public platforms is one thing; contesting elections on the ground in an equally united fashion with a leader at the helm, is another. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

A strong show of unity, but chances of grand alliance still bleak

The last two months have not brought good news for the BJP. The party lost elections in the three Hindi heartland states. The CBI and Justice Sikri episodes have created unnecessary controversy.

It is facing a spirited Congress attack on social media. To top it all, the SP and the BSP have announced a formidable alliance for the forthcoming polls in Uttar Pradesh, which accounted for one-fourth of BJP’s tally in 2014. Suddenly, what looked like an easy sail through for the party in 2019, has turned into a tight, wide open contest.

BJP recognises it has an uphill task at hand and the stupendous verdict 2014 could be termed as an outlier.

The party has affected big organisational changes recently. The most important among them is the appointment of the three ex-chief ministers – Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh as national vice-presidents.

The party strategy is to use the experience and charisma of these leaders, especially in the Hindi heartland and reduce the load of Narendra Modi to some extent, who can then focus on greenfield areas like East and South of India.

This step also helps soothe the taut nerves of upper caste and OBCs who form the core vote bank of the party.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, these sections accounting for 60 per cent of the population, voted overwhelmingly for the BJP and its allies.

After the losses, notes of dissent have come out in the open with party veterans questioning the approach of the Modi-Shah duo.

These appointments may have been done to quell such noises. With Sushma Swaraj announcing that she will not contest 2019 polls, BJP now lacks a pan-India woman leader with mass appeal. Raje fills this gap. With many flagship schemes of the government — Ujjwala, Awas, Swachch Bharat, Saubhagya — to name only a few aimed at women beneficiaries, this strategy may pay rich dividends.

The Modi-Shah duo now wants to win at any cost and the Prime Minister has not been shy of campaigning extensively even in state polls.

Another appointment, which has caught everyone’s attention is of Gordhan Zadafia, once a bitter critic of Modi belonging to the rival Sanjay Joshi camp, who has been made in-charge of the most important state of Uttar Pradesh. The party faced a lot of flak, especially from the upper castes, for nullifying the Supreme Court order on SC-ST Atrocities Act.

The SC-STs overwhelmingly voted against the party recently in the three states where it was in power. BJP won 128 SC-ST reserved seats in these states in 2013, which fell by more than half to 59 in 2018.

A section of upper caste disillusioned with the party pressed NOTA, stayed at home, some even voting for Sapaks, a party championing upper caste rights.

The party had to face reversals in belts where upper caste formed a significant proportion of population like Gwalior-Chambal in Madhya Pradesh.

Even OBCs, staunch supporters of the BJP, switched sides in Chhattisgarh.

With this step, BJP hopes to keep its anchor voting segment in good humour especially when Congress is trying to play the Brahman card and revive its traditional vote bank of upper caste, Dalits and Muslims.

In the national convention held over the weekend, Modi exhorted the BJP cadre not to be complacent and work hard on the ground. They shouldn’t just hope Modi will come, hold rallies and swing votes. They need to take the welfare schemes of the government door to door and highlight the achievements.

As per CSDS National Election Studies (NES) 2014, 27 per cent of BJP supporters would not have voted for party if Modi was not the prime ministerial candidate.

The dip in popularity ratings of Modi and a corresponding increase in Rahul’s has cautioned BJP against over-reliance on the Modi factor.

Though a lot of credit is given to Modi for the 2014 victory, it was also a result of effort and leadership of many state leaders like Chouhan, Raman, Raje, Parrikar, mini Modis in their own might.

The call is also to them and to new leaders like Yogi and Fadnavis to work hard to realize their common dream.

The party is seeking suggestions from the public on various issues like implementation of schemes, impact of proposed grand alliance and three most popular party leaders in their constituencies, among other things.

To negate anti-incumbency, BJP is likely to deny tickets to 30-40 per cent of existing MPs, around 100 in total.

This exercise will provide information on the popularity of MPs and suggest alternatives. Though elections in India are increasingly becoming presidential in style, one-fourth of the voters gave importance to the local candidate while voting in 2014, according to NES.

The unfavourable verdict in the three states brought to the forefront rural and agri distress. It also highlighted growing urban apathy among the middle class, staunch supporters of BJP. The party is likely to come up with schemes to ease the nerves of these crucial segments.

For farmers, the party could roll out a programme on the lines of Ryathu Bandhu Scheme of Telangana, where per hectare amount will be paid out to them. The middle class could see an increase in the income exemption limit from the current Rs 2.5 lakh per annum to Rs 5 lakh per annum.

For the rural population, the possibility of doling out a UBI scheme, where Rs 2-2,500 per month will be given to BPL category, is being mentioned. The party is now pulling out all stops.

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-pumping-up-party-organisation-2709176">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The last two months have not brought good news for the BJP. The party lost elections in the three Hindi heartland states. The CBI and Justice Sikri episodes have created unnecessary controversy.

The last two months have not brought good news for the BJP. The party lost elections in the three Hindi heartland states. The CBI and Justice Sikri episodes have created unnecessary controversy. It is facing a spirited Congress attack on social media. To top it all, the SP and the BSP have announced a formidable alliance for the forthcoming polls in Uttar Pradesh, which accounted for one-fourth of BJP’s tally in 2014. Suddenly, what looked like an easy sail through for the party in 2019, has turned into a tight, wide open contest. BJP recognises it has an uphill task at hand and the stupendous verdict 2014 could be termed as an outlier. The party has affected big organisational changes recently. The most important among them is the appointment of the three ex-chief ministers – Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Vasundhara Raje and Raman Singh as national vice-presidents. The party strategy is to use the experience and charisma of these leaders, especially in the Hindi heartland and reduce the load of Narendra Modi to some extent, who can then focus on greenfield areas like East and South of India. This step also helps soothe the taut nerves of upper caste and OBCs who form the core vote bank of the party. In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, these sections accounting for 60 per cent of the population, voted overwhelmingly for the BJP and its allies. After the losses, notes of dissent have come out in the open with party veterans questioning the approach of the Modi-Shah duo. These appointments may have been done to quell such noises. With Sushma Swaraj announcing that she will not contest 2019 polls, BJP now lacks a pan-India woman leader with mass appeal. Raje fills this gap. With many flagship schemes of the government — Ujjwala, Awas, Swachch Bharat, Saubhagya — to name only a few aimed at women beneficiaries, this strategy may pay rich dividends. The Modi-Shah duo now wants to win at any cost and the Prime Minister has not been shy of campaigning extensively even in state polls. Another appointment, which has caught everyone’s attention is of Gordhan Zadafia, once a bitter critic of Modi belonging to the rival Sanjay Joshi camp, who has been made in-charge of the most important state of Uttar Pradesh. The party faced a lot of flak, especially from the upper castes, for nullifying the Supreme Court order on SC-ST Atrocities Act. The SC-STs overwhelmingly voted against the party recently in the three states where it was in power. BJP won 128 SC-ST reserved seats in these states in 2013, which fell by more than half to 59 in 2018. A section of upper caste disillusioned with the party pressed NOTA, stayed at home, some even voting for Sapaks, a party championing upper caste rights. The party had to face reversals in belts where upper caste formed a significant proportion of population like Gwalior-Chambal in Madhya Pradesh. Even OBCs, staunch supporters of the BJP, switched sides in Chhattisgarh. With this step, BJP hopes to keep its anchor voting segment in good humour especially when Congress is trying to play the Brahman card and revive its traditional vote bank of upper caste, Dalits and Muslims. In the national convention held over the weekend, Modi exhorted the BJP cadre not to be complacent and work hard on the ground. They shouldn’t just hope Modi will come, hold rallies and swing votes. They need to take the welfare schemes of the government door to door and highlight the achievements. As per CSDS National Election Studies (NES) 2014, 27 per cent of BJP supporters would not have voted for party if Modi was not the prime ministerial candidate. The dip in popularity ratings of Modi and a corresponding increase in Rahul’s has cautioned BJP against over-reliance on the Modi factor. Though a lot of credit is given to Modi for the 2014 victory, it was also a result of effort and leadership of many state leaders like Chouhan, Raman, Raje, Parrikar, mini Modis in their own might. The call is also to them and to new leaders like Yogi and Fadnavis to work hard to realize their common dream. The party is seeking suggestions from the public on various issues like implementation of schemes, impact of proposed grand alliance and three most popular party leaders in their constituencies, among other things. To negate anti-incumbency, BJP is likely to deny tickets to 30-40 per cent of existing MPs, around 100 in total. This exercise will provide information on the popularity of MPs and suggest alternatives. Though elections in India are increasingly becoming presidential in style, one-fourth of the voters gave importance to the local candidate while voting in 2014, according to NES. The unfavourable verdict in the three states brought to the forefront rural and agri distress. It also highlighted growing urban apathy among the middle class, staunch supporters of BJP. The party is likely to come up with schemes to ease the nerves of these crucial segments. For farmers, the party could roll out a programme on the lines of Ryathu Bandhu Scheme of Telangana, where per hectare amount will be paid out to them. The middle class could see an increase in the income exemption limit from the current Rs 2.5 lakh per annum to Rs 5 lakh per annum. For the rural population, the possibility of doling out a UBI scheme, where Rs 2-2,500 per month will be given to BPL category, is being mentioned. The party is now pulling out all stops. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Pumping up party organisation: BJP formulates multi-pronged strategy to regain lost ground

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/sports/india-win-maiden-odi-series-against-australia-down-under-191245">India win maiden ODI series against Australia Down Under</a>

India on Friday won their maiden bilateral One-day International (ODI) series against Australia down under on Friday.

The win came after the Virat Kohli-led team defeated the host in the third and final one-day international by seven wickets. India won the three-game series 2-1.&nbsp;

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/ec-may-announce-lok-sabha-poll-schedule-in-march-first-week-sources-191262">Election Commission may announce Lok Sabha poll schedule in March first week: Sources</a>

The dates for the Lok Sabha elections are likely to be announced in the first week of March, sources indicated on Friday.

The term of the present Lok Sabha ends on June 3.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/as-elections-near-ram-temple-back-as-electoral-agenda-191280">As elections near, Ram temple back as electoral agenda</a>

RSS general secretary Bhaiya Ji Joshi has again brought the Ayodhya temple issue to the fore.

Weeks after the issue receded from the news headlines, he told the press that the Ram temple should be built before the next Kumbh, which is set six years from now. Asked about the time gap, he said, ”if construction starts immediately, then the temple would be ready by 2025.”

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/india-aims-top-50-rank-next-year-in-ease-of-doing-business-pm-modi-191242">India aims 'Top 50' rank next year in ease of doing business: PM Modi</a>

Prime Minister Narendra Modi Friday said India is aiming at being in the list of top 50 countries next year in the 'ease of doing business' category.

The country's ranking has jumped 75 places in the World Bank's ease of doing business rankings, Modi said. India is now ranked 77th in the list.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/two-grenade-attacks-on-security-forces-in-kashmir-191226">Two grenade attacks on security forces reported in Kashmir</a>

Militants carried out two grenade attacks on security forces in Kashmir on Friday but there were no reports of any casualty, police said.

The terrorists lobbed a grenade at a CRPF (Central Reserve Police Force) bunker at Ghanta Ghar (Clock Tower) in Lal Chowk this afternoon, a police official said.

India win maiden ODI series against Australia Down Under India on Friday won their maiden bilateral One-day International (ODI) series against Australia down under on Friday.

India win maiden ODI series against Australia Down Under India on Friday won their maiden bilateral One-day International (ODI) series against Australia down under on Friday. The win came after the Virat Kohli-led team defeated the host in the third and final one-day international by seven wickets. India won the three-game series 2-1. Election Commission may announce Lok Sabha poll schedule in March first week: Sources The dates for the Lok Sabha elections are likely to be announced in the first week of March, sources indicated on Friday. The term of the present Lok Sabha ends on June 3. As elections near, Ram temple back as electoral agenda RSS general secretary Bhaiya Ji Joshi has again brought the Ayodhya temple issue to the fore. Weeks after the issue receded from the news headlines, he told the press that the Ram temple should be built before the next Kumbh, which is set six years from now. Asked about the time gap, he said, ”if construction starts immediately, then the temple would be ready by 2025.” India aims 'Top 50' rank next year in ease of doing business: PM Modi Prime Minister Narendra Modi Friday said India is aiming at being in the list of top 50 countries next year in the 'ease of doing business' category. The country's ranking has jumped 75 places in the World Bank's ease of doing business rankings, Modi said. India is now ranked 77th in the list. Two grenade attacks on security forces reported in Kashmir Militants carried out two grenade attacks on security forces in Kashmir on Friday but there were no reports of any casualty, police said. The terrorists lobbed a grenade at a CRPF (Central Reserve Police Force) bunker at Ghanta Ghar (Clock Tower) in Lal Chowk this afternoon, a police official said.

News brief: Big stories of the day

The political wheels have come full circle in Uttar Pradesh. About 25 years ago, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party came together to successfully contest the 1993 Assembly elections in the state. The idea was to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at bay following its rise. Now the two parties have aligned yet again to counter the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha polls. Since we are into history, let’s recall a few incidents that happened thereafter.&nbsp;

Then it was Mulayam Singh Yadav from the SP and Kanshi Ram from the BSP who stitched the partnership. Two prominent industrialists had played a significant role in bringing the rivals together, and they were subsequently rewarded with Rajya Sabha seats. The BJP still won the largest number of seats but fell short of a majority, while the combined numerical strength of the SP and the BSP led to the formation of a coalition regime with Mulayam Singh Yadav as the chief minister. Mayawati did not join the government, but she was entrusted with the task of supervising the partnership. &nbsp;

The alliance worked well for the first few months, but friction began to develop thereafter, more so after incidents of violence which had erupted following the removal of an Ambedkar statue in Meerut in 1994. The state police, which had a good number from the Yadav caste, came down hard on the protesters and at least two members of the Scheduled Castes died in the firing. More problems arose when the Yadav community protested against the installation of an Ambedkar statue on a plot of land it claimed belonged to the community. The Yadav-Scheduled Caste confrontation led Mayawati to get aggressive, and soon reports began to circulate that she was interfering in the functioning of the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led government. &nbsp;

Then came then infamous guest house incident in mid-1995. By then, political equations had begun to change in Lucknow. The BJP and the BSP had got closer to each other with the latter realising it would have to pull out of the coalition regime to keep its Scheduled caste vote-base intact. Indeed, Mayawati had met the Governor and effectively withdrawn support to the government. All hell broke. Mayawati had summoned a meeting of her legislators at the state guest house in Lucknow to discuss further course of action. Once the meeting was done, the BSP leader was closeted with a few senior leaders for fine-tuning the political strategy. A mob of around 200 SP leaders and supporters attacked the guest house and raised casteist slogans against her and her community. It was followed by more filthy language and threats to kill. Power supply to the guest house was cut off and the mob shouted for Mayawati to be dragged out and taught a lesson. The BSP legislators who came in contact with the mob were brutally assaulted. &nbsp;

Two junior police officers came to Mayawati’s rescue. Later the district magistrate of Lucknow and some BJP leaders played important roles in the rescue of the BSP leader. A traumatic Mayawati and her guru Kanshi Ram vowed to never do business with the SP. She soon became chief minister with the BJP’s support.&nbsp;

Cut to the present: On Saturday, sharing the stage with SP leader Akhilesh Yadav to announce the renewed partnership between the SP and the BSP and the seat-sharing deal, Mayawati remarked that she was willing to forgive and forget the 1995 incident in the larger interests of the nation (read, to get rid of the Modi government from the Centre). &nbsp;

Then, as now, the common factor is the need to counter the BJP. But that’s where the commonality ends. The first difference is that the two leaders who made the alliance possible in 1993 are not in the picture this time around. Kanshi Ram is dead and Mulayam Singh Yadav is a mere bystander in the party which he founded. While both Kanshi Ram and Mulayam Singh Yadav were astute, in the present case Mayawati, now a veteran both in terms of years in politics and mercurial nature, clearly has the edge, whereas Akhilesh Yadav is subdued by his relatively junior status and inexperience. Everybody knows who will call the shots in the post-result scenario if the combine does well, is not a secret.&nbsp;

The second difference is that the 1993 alliance had been for Assembly elections, whereas the present one — at least for now — is for the Lok Sabha polls. Then it was Mulayam-Kanshi Ram versus Kalyan Singh of the BJP, who had been deposed as chief minister following the Ayodhya mosque destruction incident. Today it is Akhilesh-Mayawati versus Narendra Modi — a more formidable challenge.&nbsp;

The third refers to the political status of the BJP. Then, the BJP was not in power either at the Centre or in the state. Today it’s there in both places. In the 2014 general elections, the party had got 40 per cent of the vote-share in Uttar Pradesh. The SP could manage only five seats while the BSP ended with none. The situation was not much different in the 2017 assembly polls where the SP and the BSP had to bite the dust while the BJP romped home with a huge majority. &nbsp;And yet the SP-BSP combine has reason to feel upbeat. It had tasted blood in the Phulpur and Gorakhpur Lok Sabha bypolls, and this had proved to be a trigger to explore a formalise alliance between the two parties.&nbsp; &nbsp;

There, questions remain: First, will the coalition deliver in 2019? Will it last in case of failure? Will it sustain even after the victory or become victim to ego battles, as had happened in 1995?&nbsp;&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The political wheels have come full circle in Uttar Pradesh. About 25 years ago, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party came together to successfully contest the 1993 Assembly elections in the state.

The political wheels have come full circle in Uttar Pradesh. About 25 years ago, the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party came together to successfully contest the 1993 Assembly elections in the state. The idea was to keep the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) at bay following its rise. Now the two parties have aligned yet again to counter the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha polls. Since we are into history, let’s recall a few incidents that happened thereafter. Then it was Mulayam Singh Yadav from the SP and Kanshi Ram from the BSP who stitched the partnership. Two prominent industrialists had played a significant role in bringing the rivals together, and they were subsequently rewarded with Rajya Sabha seats. The BJP still won the largest number of seats but fell short of a majority, while the combined numerical strength of the SP and the BSP led to the formation of a coalition regime with Mulayam Singh Yadav as the chief minister. Mayawati did not join the government, but she was entrusted with the task of supervising the partnership. The alliance worked well for the first few months, but friction began to develop thereafter, more so after incidents of violence which had erupted following the removal of an Ambedkar statue in Meerut in 1994. The state police, which had a good number from the Yadav caste, came down hard on the protesters and at least two members of the Scheduled Castes died in the firing. More problems arose when the Yadav community protested against the installation of an Ambedkar statue on a plot of land it claimed belonged to the community. The Yadav-Scheduled Caste confrontation led Mayawati to get aggressive, and soon reports began to circulate that she was interfering in the functioning of the Mulayam Singh Yadav-led government. Then came then infamous guest house incident in mid-1995. By then, political equations had begun to change in Lucknow. The BJP and the BSP had got closer to each other with the latter realising it would have to pull out of the coalition regime to keep its Scheduled caste vote-base intact. Indeed, Mayawati had met the Governor and effectively withdrawn support to the government. All hell broke. Mayawati had summoned a meeting of her legislators at the state guest house in Lucknow to discuss further course of action. Once the meeting was done, the BSP leader was closeted with a few senior leaders for fine-tuning the political strategy. A mob of around 200 SP leaders and supporters attacked the guest house and raised casteist slogans against her and her community. It was followed by more filthy language and threats to kill. Power supply to the guest house was cut off and the mob shouted for Mayawati to be dragged out and taught a lesson. The BSP legislators who came in contact with the mob were brutally assaulted. Two junior police officers came to Mayawati’s rescue. Later the district magistrate of Lucknow and some BJP leaders played important roles in the rescue of the BSP leader. A traumatic Mayawati and her guru Kanshi Ram vowed to never do business with the SP. She soon became chief minister with the BJP’s support. Cut to the present: On Saturday, sharing the stage with SP leader Akhilesh Yadav to announce the renewed partnership between the SP and the BSP and the seat-sharing deal, Mayawati remarked that she was willing to forgive and forget the 1995 incident in the larger interests of the nation (read, to get rid of the Modi government from the Centre). Then, as now, the common factor is the need to counter the BJP. But that’s where the commonality ends. The first difference is that the two leaders who made the alliance possible in 1993 are not in the picture this time around. Kanshi Ram is dead and Mulayam Singh Yadav is a mere bystander in the party which he founded. While both Kanshi Ram and Mulayam Singh Yadav were astute, in the present case Mayawati, now a veteran both in terms of years in politics and mercurial nature, clearly has the edge, whereas Akhilesh Yadav is subdued by his relatively junior status and inexperience. Everybody knows who will call the shots in the post-result scenario if the combine does well, is not a secret. The second difference is that the 1993 alliance had been for Assembly elections, whereas the present one — at least for now — is for the Lok Sabha polls. Then it was Mulayam-Kanshi Ram versus Kalyan Singh of the BJP, who had been deposed as chief minister following the Ayodhya mosque destruction incident. Today it is Akhilesh-Mayawati versus Narendra Modi — a more formidable challenge. The third refers to the political status of the BJP. Then, the BJP was not in power either at the Centre or in the state. Today it’s there in both places. In the 2014 general elections, the party had got 40 per cent of the vote-share in Uttar Pradesh. The SP could manage only five seats while the BSP ended with none. The situation was not much different in the 2017 assembly polls where the SP and the BSP had to bite the dust while the BJP romped home with a huge majority. And yet the SP-BSP combine has reason to feel upbeat. It had tasted blood in the Phulpur and Gorakhpur Lok Sabha bypolls, and this had proved to be a trigger to explore a formalise alliance between the two parties. There, questions remain: First, will the coalition deliver in 2019? Will it last in case of failure? Will it sustain even after the victory or become victim to ego battles, as had happened in 1995? (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

BSP-SP alliance returns after 25 years; will the coalition deliver in 2019?

There is little doubt that Narendra Modi’s phenomenal victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha election was fashioned in the main by the youth or more specifically, the first-time voter.&nbsp;

This was no ordinary display of youth power. Disillusioned by years of Congress corruption and cynicism, the BJP leader’s catchy slogans and persuasive appeal to the young and aspirational voters, won the saffron party its most significant spurs in history.

Given that two in three Indians are below 35 years of age and about a million more need employment every month, the then Gujarat chief minister’s promises found many takers.

While old habits like voting for dynastic politicians and netas with criminal backgrounds continued in 2014, there was greater awareness of macroeconomic issues than ever before. Modi’s constant stress on development reiterated that point. &nbsp;&nbsp;

For the young voters, Modi’s record on development as Gujarat chief minister offered hope in a country that had begun to lose faith in the Congress.

In the forthcoming 2019 Lok Sabha elections, with an estimated 12.7 crore first-time voters, making India the youngest country in the world, the big challenge for the ruling party is to keep the young and the aspirational voters on its side.&nbsp;

It is instructive to fall back on the past to perhaps understand what could happen in 2019. A media survey in early 2014 said that almost half of the nearly 15 crore Indians, who were going to be first-time voters in the 2014 general election, wanted to see Modi as the Prime Minister. And so they did.

But this vast flotsam is like a tinderbox; their passion can easily turn into a strong dislike, if the going gets tough and with little skills, the going is never going to be easy.

Consider this. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a think tank that tracks business and economic data, as of February 2018, 31 million jobless people were looking for employment opportunities. This number is likely to rise as a fresh batch of graduates joins the market.

Between April and December 2016, a nine-month period, 2.3 lakh jobs were created across eight key sectors. However, given the enormous economic complexities, this is far short of what is needed: the latest figures suggest that 10 lakh Indians enter the job market every month.

The situation is so grim that one recent report indicated that 20 million Indians had applied for 1,00,000 jobs in the Indian Railways. In other words, there were 200 young jobless people applying for one post and competing with each other. And the jobs were no top-of-the-line railway executive openings, but people vying for locomotive drivers, technicians and the railway police — all of them need bare minimum qualifications.

Yet, such is the level of desperation that even highly qualified PhD scholars were among the applicants for the role of technicians.&nbsp;

India’s job crisis is now staring the Narendra Modi government in the face more ominously than when it came to power in 2014. The big problem for the present government, which has been trying and thinking out of the box to get around the problem, is that there is simply no time left to fix it. Elections are now a few months away and economic issues are not something that can be solved overnight.&nbsp;

The bigger problem is that the young generation, that is growing up on 4G and a 24-hour information inflow, has grown a little too aspirational for any government - let along this government’s comfort.&nbsp;

Most surveys, particularly the serious ones, believe that unemployment and lack of jobs are the main reasons for dissatisfaction among the young.&nbsp;

Two months ago, a group of students protested on rail tracks demanding employment. Stories of stampedes during examinations for government jobs, are not new by any chance, but they continue to be reported in India, live examples of how lives may not have changed with the change of government that has promised and even tried hard to achieve numbers that are simply humongous.&nbsp;

But clearly, elections every five years is a constitutionally guaranteed opportunity to keep seeking change until good governance is delivered.&nbsp;

Employment is directly linked to skills and the Modi government programme for skilling, despite best efforts, has run into choppy waters. Of the millions entering the workforce every year, skills are at a premium. &nbsp;

Now consider this. By 2022, India aimed to create a pool of 500 million skilled workers. The overly ambitious target could hardly be flawed, but it obviously did not take volumes into consideration.&nbsp;

According to the latest government statistics, the National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) has been able to train 51 million since 2014. Of them, 21 million managed to get jobs. &nbsp;

A deeper study reveals that India could have taken a leaf out of China’s book. The Asian rival’s success in creating a skilled labour force can be attributed to its technical, vocational education and training system, which helped it to successfully transform into the world’s manufacturing hub after it was able to train millions of unskilled into highly skilled workers.

In the case of India too, the millions of those entering the job market are quite simply unemployable.&nbsp;

According to the Election Commission data for the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the highest percentage of young voters were in Jharkhand at 9.03 per cent. The state witnessed an increase in voter turn out from 55.28 per cent in 2009 to 62.62 per cent in 2014. Some other states registering significant increases included Odisha (2.64 per cent), Haryana (2.23 per cent), Rajasthan (3.29 per cent), Chhattisgarh (4.94 per cent) and Tamil Nadu (3.23 per cent). 
 
(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-the-young-and-aspirational-2705421">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

There is little doubt that Narendra Modi’s phenomenal victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha election was fashioned in the main by the youth or more specifically, the first-time voter.

There is little doubt that Narendra Modi’s phenomenal victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha election was fashioned in the main by the youth or more specifically, the first-time voter. This was no ordinary display of youth power. Disillusioned by years of Congress corruption and cynicism, the BJP leader’s catchy slogans and persuasive appeal to the young and aspirational voters, won the saffron party its most significant spurs in history. Given that two in three Indians are below 35 years of age and about a million more need employment every month, the then Gujarat chief minister’s promises found many takers. While old habits like voting for dynastic politicians and netas with criminal backgrounds continued in 2014, there was greater awareness of macroeconomic issues than ever before. Modi’s constant stress on development reiterated that point. For the young voters, Modi’s record on development as Gujarat chief minister offered hope in a country that had begun to lose faith in the Congress. In the forthcoming 2019 Lok Sabha elections, with an estimated 12.7 crore first-time voters, making India the youngest country in the world, the big challenge for the ruling party is to keep the young and the aspirational voters on its side. It is instructive to fall back on the past to perhaps understand what could happen in 2019. A media survey in early 2014 said that almost half of the nearly 15 crore Indians, who were going to be first-time voters in the 2014 general election, wanted to see Modi as the Prime Minister. And so they did. But this vast flotsam is like a tinderbox; their passion can easily turn into a strong dislike, if the going gets tough and with little skills, the going is never going to be easy. Consider this. According to the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), a think tank that tracks business and economic data, as of February 2018, 31 million jobless people were looking for employment opportunities. This number is likely to rise as a fresh batch of graduates joins the market. Between April and December 2016, a nine-month period, 2.3 lakh jobs were created across eight key sectors. However, given the enormous economic complexities, this is far short of what is needed: the latest figures suggest that 10 lakh Indians enter the job market every month. The situation is so grim that one recent report indicated that 20 million Indians had applied for 1,00,000 jobs in the Indian Railways. In other words, there were 200 young jobless people applying for one post and competing with each other. And the jobs were no top-of-the-line railway executive openings, but people vying for locomotive drivers, technicians and the railway police — all of them need bare minimum qualifications. Yet, such is the level of desperation that even highly qualified PhD scholars were among the applicants for the role of technicians. India’s job crisis is now staring the Narendra Modi government in the face more ominously than when it came to power in 2014. The big problem for the present government, which has been trying and thinking out of the box to get around the problem, is that there is simply no time left to fix it. Elections are now a few months away and economic issues are not something that can be solved overnight. The bigger problem is that the young generation, that is growing up on 4G and a 24-hour information inflow, has grown a little too aspirational for any government - let along this government’s comfort. Most surveys, particularly the serious ones, believe that unemployment and lack of jobs are the main reasons for dissatisfaction among the young. Two months ago, a group of students protested on rail tracks demanding employment. Stories of stampedes during examinations for government jobs, are not new by any chance, but they continue to be reported in India, live examples of how lives may not have changed with the change of government that has promised and even tried hard to achieve numbers that are simply humongous. But clearly, elections every five years is a constitutionally guaranteed opportunity to keep seeking change until good governance is delivered. Employment is directly linked to skills and the Modi government programme for skilling, despite best efforts, has run into choppy waters. Of the millions entering the workforce every year, skills are at a premium. Now consider this. By 2022, India aimed to create a pool of 500 million skilled workers. The overly ambitious target could hardly be flawed, but it obviously did not take volumes into consideration. According to the latest government statistics, the National Skill Development Corporation (NSDC) has been able to train 51 million since 2014. Of them, 21 million managed to get jobs. A deeper study reveals that India could have taken a leaf out of China’s book. The Asian rival’s success in creating a skilled labour force can be attributed to its technical, vocational education and training system, which helped it to successfully transform into the world’s manufacturing hub after it was able to train millions of unskilled into highly skilled workers. In the case of India too, the millions of those entering the job market are quite simply unemployable. According to the Election Commission data for the 2014 Lok Sabha election, the highest percentage of young voters were in Jharkhand at 9.03 per cent. The state witnessed an increase in voter turn out from 55.28 per cent in 2009 to 62.62 per cent in 2014. Some other states registering significant increases included Odisha (2.64 per cent), Haryana (2.23 per cent), Rajasthan (3.29 per cent), Chhattisgarh (4.94 per cent) and Tamil Nadu (3.23 per cent). (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

2019 Lok Sabha elections: The challenge of job creation

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a recent interview that the 'grand alliance' being talked of against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would result in a contest between the people and the coalition. It remains to be seen whether this new narrative will gain traction among the voters in the months to come, but there is an alliance that can create serious problems for the ruling party - the one between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh.&nbsp; 
 
Neither PM Modi nor his party can ignore the elephant in the room, or to be precise, the elephant plus the cycle. This is for several reasons. The first is that the SP-BSP combine is a very real possibility, unlike various other opposition combinations that exist only in the air. The two parties are already collaborating. When the BSP withdrew its minister from the HD Kumaraswamy government in Karnataka, the SP was quick to support the move. When the BSP demanded the withdrawal of certain cases against members of the Scheduled Castes in Kamal Nath-ruled Madhya Pradesh, the SP was again fully supportive.&nbsp;&nbsp;

The two parties have given serious indications of contesting the Lok Sabha polls together, at least for the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. They are both on the same page with regard to treating the Congress as a very junior partner in case the latter decides to join their group. But both prefer not having any truck with the Congress.&nbsp;

The other reason for the BJP to take the possible combine seriously is the state itself. Uttar Pradesh, from all available accounts, holds the key to government formation at the Centre. The BJP rode to a majority — the first time a single party achieved it since 1984-85 — on the strength of its performance in the state, winning 73 seats along with its allies. If it suffers a setback there, it will have considerable difficulty in being in the pole position nationally. &nbsp;

The Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party combine is lethal on caste grounds too. The Yadav community and the Scheduled Castes together form a formidable voter force; together they comprise case to 30 per cent of the population. Add to it the Muslim voters, and the situation gets only more grim for the BJP. It can be argued that not all Scheduled Caste voters will back the combine — they had supported the BJP in large numbers in 2014. But then, 2019 is not 2014, and there was no alliance between the SP and the BSP.&nbsp;

The situation is more challenging for the BJP in the state this time around also because of trouble with allies. The Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and the Apna Dal (Sonelal) are upset for various reasons. Leaders of both parties have been keeping away from BJP events. Most recently, they were absent from a rally the Prime Minister addressed in Ghazipur. Statements of discontent have been made from both party leaders on various occasions. The BJP will have to mollify them quickly or face the prospect of loss of precious votes in pockets where the two parties are influential. The ruling party cannot afford to lose partners like it did in neighbouring Bihar. Two regional parties which had contested the2014 polls as partners of the BJP have broken away and joined the RJD-led front. But at least in Bihar, the BJP has a tie-up with a dominant Janata Dal (United) to compensate for the loss; in Uttar Pradesh, there is no such solace.&nbsp;

Given the situation, the BJP is readying itself for the grand challenge in the state. It could try any one or a combination of the following factors: Use the Ayodhya card to rally the majority faith voters to its side; play upon the threat of minority appeasement as well as the dominance of the Yadav community to lure voters; recall the development agenda of both the Modi regime and the Yogi Adityanath government in the state.

The potency of the first factor depends greatly on the path the Supreme Court takes in the weeks to come. The second hinges largely on the level of fear that the BJP can arouse song the people. It must be recalled that the BJP had swept the Assembly election in 2017 also because the people had been disenchanted by the minority appeasement policies of the then Samajwadi Party regime led by Akhilesh Yadav. The consolation of Hindu votes had happened as a result. Further supported by the success of schemes such as Ujjwala, the BJP had cut across caste votes to register a fine win. &nbsp;

Is an encore possible?&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a recent interview that the 'grand alliance' being talked of against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would result in a contest between the people and the coalition.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in a recent interview that the 'grand alliance' being talked of against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would result in a contest between the people and the coalition. It remains to be seen whether this new narrative will gain traction among the voters in the months to come, but there is an alliance that can create serious problems for the ruling party - the one between the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) in Uttar Pradesh. Neither PM Modi nor his party can ignore the elephant in the room, or to be precise, the elephant plus the cycle. This is for several reasons. The first is that the SP-BSP combine is a very real possibility, unlike various other opposition combinations that exist only in the air. The two parties are already collaborating. When the BSP withdrew its minister from the HD Kumaraswamy government in Karnataka, the SP was quick to support the move. When the BSP demanded the withdrawal of certain cases against members of the Scheduled Castes in Kamal Nath-ruled Madhya Pradesh, the SP was again fully supportive. The two parties have given serious indications of contesting the Lok Sabha polls together, at least for the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh. They are both on the same page with regard to treating the Congress as a very junior partner in case the latter decides to join their group. But both prefer not having any truck with the Congress. The other reason for the BJP to take the possible combine seriously is the state itself. Uttar Pradesh, from all available accounts, holds the key to government formation at the Centre. The BJP rode to a majority — the first time a single party achieved it since 1984-85 — on the strength of its performance in the state, winning 73 seats along with its allies. If it suffers a setback there, it will have considerable difficulty in being in the pole position nationally. The Samajwadi Party-Bahujan Samaj Party combine is lethal on caste grounds too. The Yadav community and the Scheduled Castes together form a formidable voter force; together they comprise case to 30 per cent of the population. Add to it the Muslim voters, and the situation gets only more grim for the BJP. It can be argued that not all Scheduled Caste voters will back the combine — they had supported the BJP in large numbers in 2014. But then, 2019 is not 2014, and there was no alliance between the SP and the BSP. The situation is more challenging for the BJP in the state this time around also because of trouble with allies. The Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party and the Apna Dal (Sonelal) are upset for various reasons. Leaders of both parties have been keeping away from BJP events. Most recently, they were absent from a rally the Prime Minister addressed in Ghazipur. Statements of discontent have been made from both party leaders on various occasions. The BJP will have to mollify them quickly or face the prospect of loss of precious votes in pockets where the two parties are influential. The ruling party cannot afford to lose partners like it did in neighbouring Bihar. Two regional parties which had contested the2014 polls as partners of the BJP have broken away and joined the RJD-led front. But at least in Bihar, the BJP has a tie-up with a dominant Janata Dal (United) to compensate for the loss; in Uttar Pradesh, there is no such solace. Given the situation, the BJP is readying itself for the grand challenge in the state. It could try any one or a combination of the following factors: Use the Ayodhya card to rally the majority faith voters to its side; play upon the threat of minority appeasement as well as the dominance of the Yadav community to lure voters; recall the development agenda of both the Modi regime and the Yogi Adityanath government in the state. The potency of the first factor depends greatly on the path the Supreme Court takes in the weeks to come. The second hinges largely on the level of fear that the BJP can arouse song the people. It must be recalled that the BJP had swept the Assembly election in 2017 also because the people had been disenchanted by the minority appeasement policies of the then Samajwadi Party regime led by Akhilesh Yadav. The consolation of Hindu votes had happened as a result. Further supported by the success of schemes such as Ujjwala, the BJP had cut across caste votes to register a fine win. Is an encore possible? (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

BSP-SP alliance may prove to be a stumbling block for BJP

Launching the first phase of the poll campaign for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, <a href="http://www.wionews.com/opinions/opinion-modi-back-in-a-humble-avatar-187769">Prime Minister Modi</a>&nbsp;addressed a rally at Assam's Cachar district on Friday.

In the first, Vijay Sankalp Samavesh Rally, PM Modi assured the people of Assam that no genuine citizen will be left out of the <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/nrc-will-be-limited-to-assam-for-now-hansraj-ahir-185187">NRC&nbsp;(National Register of Citizens)</a> and hoped that the citizenship bill will soon get Parliament's nod.

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PM Modi addressing a rally in Silchar, Assam: Aapko fir se bharosa deta hoon, koi bhi bharatiya nagrik National Register of Citizens of India (NRC) mein se nahi chootega. <a href="https://t.co/fq9IT0vei5">pic.twitter.com/fq9IT0vei5</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1081130764773732352?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2019</a></blockquote>
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"Aapko fir se bharosa deta hoon, koi bhi bharatiya nagrik National Register of Citizens of India (NRC) mein se nahi chootega".

"I am aware of the problems and difficulties faced by many during the NRC process but I assure you that no injustice will be done to any genuine Indian citizens," he added.

Calling the Citizenship Amendment Bill, a penance against the injustice done in the past, he also assured that his government was working to get the Citizen Amendment Bill passed in Parliament.

"Citizenship bill not for anyone's benefit, but a penance against injustice done in past; hope it will be passed soon in Parliament, " PM Modi said.

"Our government is moving ahead with Citizenship (Amendment) Bill; it is linked with emotions and related to peoples' lives," he added.

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PM Modi addressing a rally in Silchar, Assam: Our govt is also working to get the Citizen Amendment Bill passed in the Parliament. <a href="https://t.co/GF2WdSBlBD">pic.twitter.com/GF2WdSBlBD</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1081134449427771392?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2019</a></blockquote>
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PM Modi further said that the government had decided to implement Clause 6 of Assam Accord to safeguard social, cultural and linguistic identity of the state.

"I am indebted to the people of Assam for voting for the BJP in the recent panchayat elections and I am committed to repay this debt by ensuring the development of the state," he said.

Recalling his inauguration of the country's longest rail-cum-road bridge at Bogibeel in upper Assam on December 25, Modi said "I am fortunate to be with the people of Assam for the second time in 10 days. The Barak and Brahmaputra valleys are a source of inspiration not only for the state but also for the country", Modi said.

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Manipur: Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurates several development projects and dedicates 400kV double circuit Silchar-Imphal line, in Imphal. Chief Minister N Biren Singh also present. <a href="https://t.co/aDWqjNeqTf">pic.twitter.com/aDWqjNeqTf</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1081100736786821122?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 4, 2019</a></blockquote>
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The BJP and its allies is setting the target to win 21 out of the 25 parliamentary seats in eight states in the region and in Assam the party hopes to win at least 11 of the 14 seats.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, BJP had made massive in roads in Assam winning seven of its 14 parliamentary seats and in the 2016 assembly polls the party emerged as the single largest party with 61 seats while its alliance partners AGP and BPF had won 14 and 12 seats respectively.&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies)

Launching the first phase of the poll campaign for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Prime Minister Modi addressed a rally at Assam's Cachar district on Friday. In the first, Vijay Sankalp Samavesh Rally, PM Modi assured the people of Assam that no genuine citizen will be left out of the NRC (National Register of Citizens) and hoped that the citizenship bill will soon get Parliament's nod.

Launching the first phase of the poll campaign for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, Prime Minister Modi addressed a rally at Assam's Cachar district on Friday. In the first, Vijay Sankalp Samavesh Rally, PM Modi assured the people of Assam that no genuine citizen will be left out of the NRC (National Register of Citizens) and hoped that the citizenship bill will soon get Parliament's nod. PM Modi addressing a rally in Silchar, Assam: Aapko fir se bharosa deta hoon, koi bhi bharatiya nagrik National Register of Citizens of India (NRC) mein se nahi chootega. pic.twitter.com/fq9IT0vei5 — ANI (@ANI) January 4, 2019 × "Aapko fir se bharosa deta hoon, koi bhi bharatiya nagrik National Register of Citizens of India (NRC) mein se nahi chootega". "I am aware of the problems and difficulties faced by many during the NRC process but I assure you that no injustice will be done to any genuine Indian citizens," he added. Calling the Citizenship Amendment Bill, a penance against the injustice done in the past, he also assured that his government was working to get the Citizen Amendment Bill passed in Parliament. "Citizenship bill not for anyone's benefit, but a penance against injustice done in past; hope it will be passed soon in Parliament, " PM Modi said. "Our government is moving ahead with Citizenship (Amendment) Bill; it is linked with emotions and related to peoples' lives," he added. PM Modi addressing a rally in Silchar, Assam: Our govt is also working to get the Citizen Amendment Bill passed in the Parliament. pic.twitter.com/GF2WdSBlBD — ANI (@ANI) January 4, 2019 × PM Modi further said that the government had decided to implement Clause 6 of Assam Accord to safeguard social, cultural and linguistic identity of the state. "I am indebted to the people of Assam for voting for the BJP in the recent panchayat elections and I am committed to repay this debt by ensuring the development of the state," he said. Recalling his inauguration of the country's longest rail-cum-road bridge at Bogibeel in upper Assam on December 25, Modi said "I am fortunate to be with the people of Assam for the second time in 10 days. The Barak and Brahmaputra valleys are a source of inspiration not only for the state but also for the country", Modi said. Manipur: Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurates several development projects and dedicates 400kV double circuit Silchar-Imphal line, in Imphal. Chief Minister N Biren Singh also present. pic.twitter.com/aDWqjNeqTf — ANI (@ANI) January 4, 2019 × The BJP and its allies is setting the target to win 21 out of the 25 parliamentary seats in eight states in the region and in Assam the party hopes to win at least 11 of the 14 seats. In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, BJP had made massive in roads in Assam winning seven of its 14 parliamentary seats and in the 2016 assembly polls the party emerged as the single largest party with 61 seats while its alliance partners AGP and BPF had won 14 and 12 seats respectively. (With inputs from agencies)

No genuine citizen will be left out of NRC: PM Modi at rally in Assam

There are moments of epiphany when a bright flash of light appears in the mind's eye to give us an enlightening idea of some hard truth or knowledge. I had such a moment on the eve of the new year when I read about a political party from Uttar Pradesh called Nishad Party. It is in the news after its members pelted stones and killed a policeman on duty at Ghazipur in the eastern part of the state a couple of hours after Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in the area.&nbsp;

The Nishad community has been demanding reservations in government jobs. Is there anything new there? The Gujjars in Rajasthan, the Marathas in Maharashtra, the Patidars (Patels) in Gujarat, the Kapus in Andhra Pradesh and the Jats in Haryana are among those demanding job quotas in what I call post-Mandal politics. After a broad alliance of backward castes (technically known as Other Backward Classes in administrative language) managed to get quotas through the implementation of the Mandal Commission report in 1990, dissensions and rivalries within this category and those left out of the game but feeling backward in political terms, have been exercising their electoral muscle across India.

I confess I had not heard of the Nishad Party enough to have applied my mind, although it contested as many as 100 assembly seats in the last UP elections. Officially, the Nishad party describes itself as the derivative of an acronym: Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal. In effect, it represents boatmen and fishermen groups such as the Nishad, Bind and Kewat communities. There are also other parties in UP such as the Apna Dal (S) representing the Kurmis -- who are not high enough in the state but have a chief minister in Nitish Kumar in neighbouring Bihar.&nbsp;

In Andhra Pradesh, actor Pawan Kalyan is leading the Jana Sena party. He does not associate himself with any caste, but he is identified with the Kapus on account of his birth. The Jana Sena is giving headaches to chief minister Chandrababu Naidu, which kind of explains why the CM is trying to assume a national role as a key mover-shaker in opposition efforts to dislodge Modi's BJP from power. Voters look kindly at regional leaders assuming national prominence, partly in pride and partly in the hope that a national win will result in more local gains.

For all practical purposes, the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti in Gujarat led by Hardik Patel is as good as a regional caste-based party, though it calls itself non-political. It played a major role in Congress improving its show in the last state assembly elections.

A study in the respected Economic and Political Weekly on recent caste-based quota stirs concluded that the Jats, the Marathas and the Patels were "already closer to the upper castes than to the more disadvantaged groups in their respective states. Their anxieties seem to be based more on perception than on empirical evidence. "

We can't probably say that about the backward Nishads in UP, but relatively speaking the Kapus in AP and the Gujjars in Rajasthan are in the same league as the Jats and the Marathas, with their ambitions speaking the language of affirmative action based on backwardness.

The fact is that rural wages have shot up across India over the past two decades and hundreds of millions of people from formerly poor communities are looking beyond basic needs as they go to vote. Steady, influential government jobs are among their key demands. Rising literacy and the growth of media-based knowledge and smartphones are making them feel more empowered. The Vanniyars in Tamil Nadu were among the earliest OBC groups to discover their "backward" power when the Pattali Makkal Katchi was formed by Dr. S Ramadoss in 1989. The Lingayats in Karnataka, though relatively forward, are a de-facto political party who played a major role in the Congress retaining a measure of power in the state in assembly elections last year.&nbsp;

Whatever the detail, the writing is on the wall in the new year. While TV studio debates may centre around the Congress and the BJP, in the deeper game of electoral chess on the ground, you have to watch out for community leaders who will play a major role in shaping alliances and coalitions. They will also be spoilers in close contests in the first-past-the-post electoral system, with enough capacity to thwart someone's chance of victory even when they can't get a seat themselves. Mainstream parties try to co-opt, fool or break up smaller parties using their machinations through the media, money and manoeuvres. Some of it has already happened. More will happen in the coming days.

I expect backroom deals with backward groups taking the centre stage somewhere down the line in the new year. Watch out for some leaders who may look like jokers but can turn out to be heroes or villains as the world's largest democracy goes to the polls.

(This article was originally published on Zeenews. Read the <a href="http://zeenews.india.com/blogs/2019-lok-sabha-elections-more-than-just-bjp-vs-congress-smaller-parties-hold-the-key-2167664.html">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

There are moments of epiphany when a bright flash of light appears in the mind's eye to give us an enlightening idea of some hard truth or knowledge. I had such a moment on the eve of the new year when I read about a political party from Uttar Pradesh called Nishad Party.

There are moments of epiphany when a bright flash of light appears in the mind's eye to give us an enlightening idea of some hard truth or knowledge. I had such a moment on the eve of the new year when I read about a political party from Uttar Pradesh called Nishad Party. It is in the news after its members pelted stones and killed a policeman on duty at Ghazipur in the eastern part of the state a couple of hours after Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in the area. The Nishad community has been demanding reservations in government jobs. Is there anything new there? The Gujjars in Rajasthan, the Marathas in Maharashtra, the Patidars (Patels) in Gujarat, the Kapus in Andhra Pradesh and the Jats in Haryana are among those demanding job quotas in what I call post-Mandal politics. After a broad alliance of backward castes (technically known as Other Backward Classes in administrative language) managed to get quotas through the implementation of the Mandal Commission report in 1990, dissensions and rivalries within this category and those left out of the game but feeling backward in political terms, have been exercising their electoral muscle across India. I confess I had not heard of the Nishad Party enough to have applied my mind, although it contested as many as 100 assembly seats in the last UP elections. Officially, the Nishad party describes itself as the derivative of an acronym: Nirbal Indian Shoshit Hamara Aam Dal. In effect, it represents boatmen and fishermen groups such as the Nishad, Bind and Kewat communities. There are also other parties in UP such as the Apna Dal (S) representing the Kurmis -- who are not high enough in the state but have a chief minister in Nitish Kumar in neighbouring Bihar. In Andhra Pradesh, actor Pawan Kalyan is leading the Jana Sena party. He does not associate himself with any caste, but he is identified with the Kapus on account of his birth. The Jana Sena is giving headaches to chief minister Chandrababu Naidu, which kind of explains why the CM is trying to assume a national role as a key mover-shaker in opposition efforts to dislodge Modi's BJP from power. Voters look kindly at regional leaders assuming national prominence, partly in pride and partly in the hope that a national win will result in more local gains. For all practical purposes, the Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti in Gujarat led by Hardik Patel is as good as a regional caste-based party, though it calls itself non-political. It played a major role in Congress improving its show in the last state assembly elections. A study in the respected Economic and Political Weekly on recent caste-based quota stirs concluded that the Jats, the Marathas and the Patels were "already closer to the upper castes than to the more disadvantaged groups in their respective states. Their anxieties seem to be based more on perception than on empirical evidence. " We can't probably say that about the backward Nishads in UP, but relatively speaking the Kapus in AP and the Gujjars in Rajasthan are in the same league as the Jats and the Marathas, with their ambitions speaking the language of affirmative action based on backwardness. The fact is that rural wages have shot up across India over the past two decades and hundreds of millions of people from formerly poor communities are looking beyond basic needs as they go to vote. Steady, influential government jobs are among their key demands. Rising literacy and the growth of media-based knowledge and smartphones are making them feel more empowered. The Vanniyars in Tamil Nadu were among the earliest OBC groups to discover their "backward" power when the Pattali Makkal Katchi was formed by Dr. S Ramadoss in 1989. The Lingayats in Karnataka, though relatively forward, are a de-facto political party who played a major role in the Congress retaining a measure of power in the state in assembly elections last year. Whatever the detail, the writing is on the wall in the new year. While TV studio debates may centre around the Congress and the BJP, in the deeper game of electoral chess on the ground, you have to watch out for community leaders who will play a major role in shaping alliances and coalitions. They will also be spoilers in close contests in the first-past-the-post electoral system, with enough capacity to thwart someone's chance of victory even when they can't get a seat themselves. Mainstream parties try to co-opt, fool or break up smaller parties using their machinations through the media, money and manoeuvres. Some of it has already happened. More will happen in the coming days. I expect backroom deals with backward groups taking the centre stage somewhere down the line in the new year. Watch out for some leaders who may look like jokers but can turn out to be heroes or villains as the world's largest democracy goes to the polls. (This article was originally published on Zeenews. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

2019 Lok Sabha elections more than just BJP vs Congress, smaller parties hold the key

On the first day of 2019, and a few months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, here are four simple resolutions that could change our politics for the better. The level of discourse pertaining to politics has plummeted to unprecedented levels. A general perception prevails that our politics is become too bitter and is based on hate and revulsion towards political opponents. If politicians are concerned about this growing apathy and disgust for them they better follow some urgent steps.&nbsp;

Refrain from personal attacks&nbsp;

Over the last few years, Indian politics has reached its nadir. Slander, abuse and name-calling have become de rigueur and from top-ranking leaders to a party cadre, we have a stare at a bleak scenario when it comes to civility and basic courtesies. Whether it is inside Parliament, TV studios or public rallies, our politicians have crossed all red lines, so much so that political opponents appear to be mortal enemies! This needs to change as we head into an election year because without mutual respect and certain inviolable norms of public behaviour, Indian democracy will only be further weakened. &nbsp;

PPP- Practise Positive Politics &nbsp;

The mutual abuse that parties are currently heaping on each other, stems from a pool of negativity that is detrimental to democracy. While political and ideological opponents must fight it out in the electoral arena, stooping down to exacting personal vendettas cannot be condoned. Similarly, creating false narratives based on half-truths and innuendos are destroying public&nbsp;trust in politicians. If left unchecked it will erode away the peoples’ belief in the political system as well and could even pave way for more anarchic forces. &nbsp;

Focus on real issues&nbsp;

For a majority of Indians, issue emanating from growing inequality, lack of access to quality and affordable healthcare and education, safe spaces for children and girls, and opportunities of employment are in fact the real issues they would like to see resolved. However, issues like Mandir-Masjid&nbsp;may resonate with a small section of people but have come to occupy a disproportionately large share of politics today.&nbsp;

India’s health expenditure remains less than 3 per cent of its GDP, there is a severe dearth of quality and accessible school education for over 80 per cent Indian children. There is a severe crisis of undernutrition in a huge swathe of the country and process of migration for economic opportunities is overburdening India’s unprepared cities. In the new year, it is on such issues that political parties really need to focus on and just include them as a formality in their respective manifestos.&nbsp;

Don’t mislead people&nbsp;

With technology enabling real and digital manipulation of the voters’ minds, it is important that politicians strictly follow a personal code of conduct which shuns promoting the use of technology to come up with fake news, memes, audio recordings, and other such materials. Such unethical practices may help them reap short-term and narrow political gains but in the long term, it will be the death-knell of people’s trust in the political class. And once people’s trust disappears it won’t be long before our entire democratic political system starts crumbling. Therefore, politicians must resolve to neither overtly or covertly to either promote or sanction the creation of any material or narrative that seeks to mislead people on any issue pertaining to religion, caste, community, gender or any other matter.&nbsp;

Political parties and leaders from across the political spectrum need to resolve to shun this negativist politics and resolve to only work on positive ideas. To be sure, it is not meant that Indian politics should become inert and boring, but only that our politics should not be centred only on criticism, vendetta and spiteful jingoism.&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

On the first day of 2019, and a few months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, here are four simple resolutions that could change our politics for the better. The level of discourse pertaining to politics has plummeted to unprecedented levels.

On the first day of 2019, and a few months ahead of the Lok Sabha elections, here are four simple resolutions that could change our politics for the better. The level of discourse pertaining to politics has plummeted to unprecedented levels. A general perception prevails that our politics is become too bitter and is based on hate and revulsion towards political opponents. If politicians are concerned about this growing apathy and disgust for them they better follow some urgent steps. Refrain from personal attacks Over the last few years, Indian politics has reached its nadir. Slander, abuse and name-calling have become de rigueur and from top-ranking leaders to a party cadre, we have a stare at a bleak scenario when it comes to civility and basic courtesies. Whether it is inside Parliament, TV studios or public rallies, our politicians have crossed all red lines, so much so that political opponents appear to be mortal enemies! This needs to change as we head into an election year because without mutual respect and certain inviolable norms of public behaviour, Indian democracy will only be further weakened. PPP- Practise Positive Politics The mutual abuse that parties are currently heaping on each other, stems from a pool of negativity that is detrimental to democracy. While political and ideological opponents must fight it out in the electoral arena, stooping down to exacting personal vendettas cannot be condoned. Similarly, creating false narratives based on half-truths and innuendos are destroying public trust in politicians. If left unchecked it will erode away the peoples’ belief in the political system as well and could even pave way for more anarchic forces. Focus on real issues For a majority of Indians, issue emanating from growing inequality, lack of access to quality and affordable healthcare and education, safe spaces for children and girls, and opportunities of employment are in fact the real issues they would like to see resolved. However, issues like Mandir-Masjid may resonate with a small section of people but have come to occupy a disproportionately large share of politics today. India’s health expenditure remains less than 3 per cent of its GDP, there is a severe dearth of quality and accessible school education for over 80 per cent Indian children. There is a severe crisis of undernutrition in a huge swathe of the country and process of migration for economic opportunities is overburdening India’s unprepared cities. In the new year, it is on such issues that political parties really need to focus on and just include them as a formality in their respective manifestos. Don’t mislead people With technology enabling real and digital manipulation of the voters’ minds, it is important that politicians strictly follow a personal code of conduct which shuns promoting the use of technology to come up with fake news, memes, audio recordings, and other such materials. Such unethical practices may help them reap short-term and narrow political gains but in the long term, it will be the death-knell of people’s trust in the political class. And once people’s trust disappears it won’t be long before our entire democratic political system starts crumbling. Therefore, politicians must resolve to neither overtly or covertly to either promote or sanction the creation of any material or narrative that seeks to mislead people on any issue pertaining to religion, caste, community, gender or any other matter. Political parties and leaders from across the political spectrum need to resolve to shun this negativist politics and resolve to only work on positive ideas. To be sure, it is not meant that Indian politics should become inert and boring, but only that our politics should not be centred only on criticism, vendetta and spiteful jingoism. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Resolutions that political parties must make in 2019

Like the year 2017, &nbsp;2018 also ends with a round of important state elections. But unlike 2017 which the Bharatiya Janata Party rounded off with a hard-fought victory in Gujarat, 2018 has seen curtains down for the party in the key states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. That alone makes 2019 crucial, but what adds to the importance is the fact that that year will also witness a contest to determine which party or combination of parties rules the country.&nbsp;

It is, therefore, natural that electoral issues will be thrown up in the coming months. Although different topics will seek to occupy the primary narrative, every party will swear by the development agenda. While the BJP will present the development it has done in the past five years, others will dig up credit-worry material from the past when they were in power. The question is: Will the politics of development alone be the decisive factor? This is important because, if the answer is in the affirmative, then various other issues, many of them polarising and contentious, ought to be consigned to the dustbin. But the country’s recent political history does not point in that direction.&nbsp;

The Congress-led regime of PV Narasimha Rao presided over the most dramatic economic reforms the country has seen since Independence. It discarded decades of a socialist structure that had impeded growth and openness in the Indian economy. Its impact has been so profound that it is not just being felt today but will continue to be felt for many more years to come. Those bold measures were remarkable for another important reason: They were helmed by a leader who had himself spent a lifetime soaked in the Congress’s socialist credentials as far as economic policies were concerned. And they saved the country from certain bankruptcy. And yet, the Rao government lost power in 1996. The development agenda failed to click.&nbsp;

The fate of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee dispensation was no different. Prime Minister Vajpayee initiated arguably the biggest reform in decades in the infrastructure sector — national highways, rural roads, electricity, telecommunications. The India Shining campaign highlighted those undisputed achievements, but the BJP was ousted from power by the Congress which had only less than a decade ago played a role in the destabilisation of two non-Congress governments. Besides, it had also virtually trashed Rao’s development politics by relegating him to a non-entity in the Congress’s galaxy of tall leaders. People had not forgotten the shabby treatment it had given to Rao even after his death. But nothing mattered, and the Congress-led alliance formed the government in 2004. &nbsp;

Both Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh and Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh, in their long stints at the helm, had to a large extent succeeded in improving a lot of the people of their respective States through developmental politics. Madhya Pradesh is an especially interesting case because it had been considered part of the BIMARU (sick) conglomeration of states when Chouhan took charge. In more than a decade in office, his regime had managed to extricate it out of this pejorative terminology— which then comprised Bihar, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. But the people of the state voted his regime out recently.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Political parties understand this reality, which is why, although they talk of the politics of development, they are careful to cultivate other factors as well, sometimes at the cost of development. The constant use of identities — of religion, caste, regional pride — is one such weapon that these parties deploy. To be fair to them, they do so because they know that the voters also —despite being vocal on public platforms — about issues of development — are often swayed by parochial considerations.&nbsp;

This explains the budding romance between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh. If the alliance between the two regional heavyweights happens, it can signal big trouble for the BJP in the state which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha and which can well decide on who will form the next government at the Centre. It cannot be the politics of development which has brought the two entities this close, because both have a miserable track record on that front. What we can witness is the return of unabashed caste politics in Uttar Pradesh.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Similar is the story with other parties. The BJP has enough to talk about developmental politics — from empowering the common man to have bank accounts to enhancing road, rail and air connectivity to providing cooking gas connections to millions of needy families to implementing various new insurance schemes for the farming and the health sectors, and the Make in India, Digital India, Startup India projects etc. But even it realises that these may not be enough.

That said, it must be acknowledged that voters do have issues other than development which bothers them, and when such issues are ignored or belittled, the people let their annoyance known through the EVMs.&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Like the year 2017, 2018 also ends with a round of important state elections. But unlike 2017 which the Bharatiya Janata Party rounded off with a hard-fought victory in Gujarat, 2018 has seen curtains down for the party in the key states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.

Like the year 2017, 2018 also ends with a round of important state elections. But unlike 2017 which the Bharatiya Janata Party rounded off with a hard-fought victory in Gujarat, 2018 has seen curtains down for the party in the key states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. That alone makes 2019 crucial, but what adds to the importance is the fact that that year will also witness a contest to determine which party or combination of parties rules the country. It is, therefore, natural that electoral issues will be thrown up in the coming months. Although different topics will seek to occupy the primary narrative, every party will swear by the development agenda. While the BJP will present the development it has done in the past five years, others will dig up credit-worry material from the past when they were in power. The question is: Will the politics of development alone be the decisive factor? This is important because, if the answer is in the affirmative, then various other issues, many of them polarising and contentious, ought to be consigned to the dustbin. But the country’s recent political history does not point in that direction. The Congress-led regime of PV Narasimha Rao presided over the most dramatic economic reforms the country has seen since Independence. It discarded decades of a socialist structure that had impeded growth and openness in the Indian economy. Its impact has been so profound that it is not just being felt today but will continue to be felt for many more years to come. Those bold measures were remarkable for another important reason: They were helmed by a leader who had himself spent a lifetime soaked in the Congress’s socialist credentials as far as economic policies were concerned. And they saved the country from certain bankruptcy. And yet, the Rao government lost power in 1996. The development agenda failed to click. The fate of the Atal Bihari Vajpayee dispensation was no different. Prime Minister Vajpayee initiated arguably the biggest reform in decades in the infrastructure sector — national highways, rural roads, electricity, telecommunications. The India Shining campaign highlighted those undisputed achievements, but the BJP was ousted from power by the Congress which had only less than a decade ago played a role in the destabilisation of two non-Congress governments. Besides, it had also virtually trashed Rao’s development politics by relegating him to a non-entity in the Congress’s galaxy of tall leaders. People had not forgotten the shabby treatment it had given to Rao even after his death. But nothing mattered, and the Congress-led alliance formed the government in 2004. Both Raman Singh in Chhattisgarh and Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh, in their long stints at the helm, had to a large extent succeeded in improving a lot of the people of their respective States through developmental politics. Madhya Pradesh is an especially interesting case because it had been considered part of the BIMARU (sick) conglomeration of states when Chouhan took charge. In more than a decade in office, his regime had managed to extricate it out of this pejorative terminology— which then comprised Bihar, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh. But the people of the state voted his regime out recently. Political parties understand this reality, which is why, although they talk of the politics of development, they are careful to cultivate other factors as well, sometimes at the cost of development. The constant use of identities — of religion, caste, regional pride — is one such weapon that these parties deploy. To be fair to them, they do so because they know that the voters also —despite being vocal on public platforms — about issues of development — are often swayed by parochial considerations. This explains the budding romance between the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party in Uttar Pradesh. If the alliance between the two regional heavyweights happens, it can signal big trouble for the BJP in the state which sends 80 members to the Lok Sabha and which can well decide on who will form the next government at the Centre. It cannot be the politics of development which has brought the two entities this close, because both have a miserable track record on that front. What we can witness is the return of unabashed caste politics in Uttar Pradesh. Similar is the story with other parties. The BJP has enough to talk about developmental politics — from empowering the common man to have bank accounts to enhancing road, rail and air connectivity to providing cooking gas connections to millions of needy families to implementing various new insurance schemes for the farming and the health sectors, and the Make in India, Digital India, Startup India projects etc. But even it realises that these may not be enough. That said, it must be acknowledged that voters do have issues other than development which bothers them, and when such issues are ignored or belittled, the people let their annoyance known through the EVMs. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

It will take more than just 'politics of development' as parties prepare for 2019 Lok Sabha elections

BJP's ‘save democracy’ Rath Yatra (chariot journey), that was scheduled to commence from three different points this Saturday and conclude with party President Amit Shah's public rally after crossing through all the Lok Sabha constituencies of West Bengal, has been grounded even before it could take-off as the Supreme Court this Monday refused to accord a priority hearing on BJP's application challenging a Calcutta High Court order preventing the Yatra in West Bengal.

The Mamata Banerjee government has stiffly opposed BJP's yatra. It used what it calls “intelligence feedback” to drive home the communal angle and raise the law and order issue through a petition filed in the Calcutta high court to stall the Yatra.

At the outset, a single judge bench of the Calcutta high court allowed the Yatra. But a Division Bench of the high court struck down this order after the Mamata government had challenged it.

Since winter holidays were starting, the BJP approached the Supreme Court to seek an urgent hearing in this matter but as the request has been denied by the apex court, the matter will now come up for hearing in the normal course when the court reopens in January 2019. Till then the Yatra would remain on the back-burner and in the interim people will be witnessing a battle of wits and a war of words between the BJP and All India Trinamool Congress, the ruling party in West Bengal.

After the BJP took up the Ayodhya temple issue, senior party leader L K Advani had embarked on his famous padyatra in September 1990. Advani’s Somnath to Ayodhya Rath Yatra is now history. In 2011, Advani took out another yatra - Jan Chetna Yatra to take on UPA government on the corruption issue.

Except for the nomenclature, there is no ground to compare Advani’s Yatra with BJP’s now postponed “Save Democracy Rath Yatra” in Bengal which is directed against the Mamata Banerjee government and more particularly aimed at building public opinion against illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. BJP views it as a serious issue and the main reason leading to distress among the state's youth. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has already launched a campaign in support of a National Register of Citizens on the same lines as Assam to weed out the illegal Bangladeshis from Bengal.&nbsp;

The social media has been loaded with comments both for and against BJP’s save democracy Rath Yatra. A Twitter post in defence of the BJP said: If this (stopping the BJP from taking out its Rat Yatra) is not akin to Emergency what else is? &nbsp;Can law and order be an alibi to prevent freedom of Expression?

The present impasse and its outcome will have a far-reaching impact on BJP’s campaign for the 2019 Lok Sabha election not only in Bengal but also in other parts of the country. The stakes are too high for the BJP which has already suffered defeat in the just concluded Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh - the Hindi heartland states.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

BJP's ‘save democracy’ Rath Yatra (chariot journey), that was scheduled to commence from three different points this Saturday and conclude with party President Amit Shah's public rally after crossing through all the Lok Sabha constituencies of West Bengal, has been grounded even before it could take-off as the Supreme Court this Monday refused to accord a priority hearing on BJP's application challenging a Calcutta High Court order preventing the Yatra in West Bengal.

BJP's ‘save democracy’ Rath Yatra (chariot journey), that was scheduled to commence from three different points this Saturday and conclude with party President Amit Shah's public rally after crossing through all the Lok Sabha constituencies of West Bengal, has been grounded even before it could take-off as the Supreme Court this Monday refused to accord a priority hearing on BJP's application challenging a Calcutta High Court order preventing the Yatra in West Bengal. The Mamata Banerjee government has stiffly opposed BJP's yatra. It used what it calls “intelligence feedback” to drive home the communal angle and raise the law and order issue through a petition filed in the Calcutta high court to stall the Yatra. At the outset, a single judge bench of the Calcutta high court allowed the Yatra. But a Division Bench of the high court struck down this order after the Mamata government had challenged it. Since winter holidays were starting, the BJP approached the Supreme Court to seek an urgent hearing in this matter but as the request has been denied by the apex court, the matter will now come up for hearing in the normal course when the court reopens in January 2019. Till then the Yatra would remain on the back-burner and in the interim people will be witnessing a battle of wits and a war of words between the BJP and All India Trinamool Congress, the ruling party in West Bengal. After the BJP took up the Ayodhya temple issue, senior party leader L K Advani had embarked on his famous padyatra in September 1990. Advani’s Somnath to Ayodhya Rath Yatra is now history. In 2011, Advani took out another yatra - Jan Chetna Yatra to take on UPA government on the corruption issue. Except for the nomenclature, there is no ground to compare Advani’s Yatra with BJP’s now postponed “Save Democracy Rath Yatra” in Bengal which is directed against the Mamata Banerjee government and more particularly aimed at building public opinion against illegal immigrants from Bangladesh. BJP views it as a serious issue and the main reason leading to distress among the state's youth. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) has already launched a campaign in support of a National Register of Citizens on the same lines as Assam to weed out the illegal Bangladeshis from Bengal. The social media has been loaded with comments both for and against BJP’s save democracy Rath Yatra. A Twitter post in defence of the BJP said: If this (stopping the BJP from taking out its Rat Yatra) is not akin to Emergency what else is? Can law and order be an alibi to prevent freedom of Expression? The present impasse and its outcome will have a far-reaching impact on BJP’s campaign for the 2019 Lok Sabha election not only in Bengal but also in other parts of the country. The stakes are too high for the BJP which has already suffered defeat in the just concluded Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh - the Hindi heartland states. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The Rath Yatra controversy and BJP’s stakes in West Bengal

To win the 2019 Lok Sabha election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has to overcome three demographic roadblocks: farmers, Dalits and NDA allies. Of the three, farmers hold the key.&nbsp;

Over 50 per cent of Indians earn their livelihood from farming activity. Agriculture, &nbsp;though, contributes only 15 per cent to India’s GDP. In those dissonant numbers lie the farm distress that has been building for years. It has come to a head just before the 2019 general election.&nbsp;

Natural disasters like successive droughts have pushed many marginal farmers to the brink. The political solution of granting loan waivers to alleviate farmer distress is akin to administering a painkiller. The pain will return. Last week former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and 12 other leading economists released a document titled “An economic strategy for India.” The document focuses on macro-economic stability, jobs, health, education and – most emphatically – agriculture. Arguing specifically against farm loan waivers, Rajan declared: “I have said forever that farm loan waivers should be taken off the table.”

Most Indian farmers have small holdings of between one and four acres. The increase in minimum support price (MSP) to cost-plus-50 per cent is not a panacea. 
 
The formula to compute input costs itself is inaccurate as Ashok Gulati and Tirtha Chatterjee, writing in a daily, have pointed out: “Farmers are basically demanding three things: One, a debate in Parliament to discuss farm distress; two; a one-time loan waiver; and three, raising minimum support prices (MSPs) to 50 per cent above comprehensive cost (C2) of production, and making MSPs legally binding on private traders – that is, if any trader buys below MSP, he should be put in prison for, say, three years. The third demand, of setting higher MSPs and making them legally binding, is the most strange. 
 
Although the Modi government is already drum-beating that they have fulfilled the Swaminathan formula by giving a 50 per cent margin over A2+FL, people in this business know that they have changed the reference cost from C2 to A2+FL, which is about 38 per cent lower. In any case, an MSP formula based on just cost, be it A2+FL or C2, ignoring its demand side, is patently inefficient. It will cost the nation heavily in due course.”&nbsp;

The real solution to farm distress lies elsewhere: technology and open markets. Between farm and fork are middlemen. They suck away a significant portion of the difference between the price at which the farmer sells his produce and the price the consumer pays. Ideally, this shouldn’t exceed 15-20 per cent, giving mandi operators, wholesalers and retailers sufficient profit margins. In reality, the margins can exceed 50 per cent. The farmer is shortchanged and the consumer too pays more than she should.&nbsp;

This defective mechanism lies at the heart of why agriculture is an unremunerative occupation. Surveys show that over 75 per cent of the children of farmers don’t want to be farmers. The monopolistic Agriculture Produce Market Committee (APMC) decides the price farmers receive. Farmers who recently marched through Mumbai and Delhi want to sell their produce in open markets. An MSP-plus 50 per cent formula helps neither marginal farmers nor the government which has to balance food inflation (currently negative) with giving farmers remunerative prices.&nbsp;

The Telangana model is to bypass MSP+50 per cent and hand out Rs 4,000 per acre for every cropping season. But handing out cash to big farmers with tens of acres of land would be a waste. Former Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha instead suggests a more pragmatic way forward: “All small and marginal farmer households, including tenant and sub-tenant farmers, should receive a basic income of Rs 6,000 per acre per crop season. This will work out to Rs 12,000 per household per annum. Farmers holding land in excess of 5 acres of irrigated land, who produce the disposable surplus and take advantage of the minimum support price may not be included in the scheme. For unirrigated holdings, the limit could be 10 acres. The total financial burden of this scheme, likely to be Rs 1.84 lakh crore, could be distributed in the ratio of 70:30 between the Centre and the states. The financial burden on the Centre will thus be Rs 1.29 lakh crore, less than 1 per cent of the country’s GDP. The total expenditure budget of the Government of India in 2018-19 is Rs 24.42 lakh crore. It is, therefore, not difficult to find this money within the resources available to it with better expenditure management.”

The second step that can bring about a new green revolution and increase yield-per-acre of crops as China, the European Union (EU) and the United States have done is fast-tracking genetically modified crops. This has been strongly opposed but the science is increasingly clear: properly monitored, genetically modified crops can significantly increase yield per acre. By using the benefit of agricultural technology and allowing farmers to sell in open, transparent mandis, the vicious cycle of drought and farmer indebtedness can be converted into a virtuous cycle of high-yield crops and a market-discovered price for farmers’ produce. It could win back for Modi the confidence of a farming community that has long suffered economic distress.

(This article was originally published on DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-farmers-pm-s-2019-challenge-2698138">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

To win the 2019 Lok Sabha election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has to overcome three demographic roadblocks: farmers, Dalits and NDA allies. Of the three, farmers hold the key.

To win the 2019 Lok Sabha election, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has to overcome three demographic roadblocks: farmers, Dalits and NDA allies. Of the three, farmers hold the key. Over 50 per cent of Indians earn their livelihood from farming activity. Agriculture, though, contributes only 15 per cent to India’s GDP. In those dissonant numbers lie the farm distress that has been building for years. It has come to a head just before the 2019 general election. Natural disasters like successive droughts have pushed many marginal farmers to the brink. The political solution of granting loan waivers to alleviate farmer distress is akin to administering a painkiller. The pain will return. Last week former RBI governor Raghuram Rajan and 12 other leading economists released a document titled “An economic strategy for India.” The document focuses on macro-economic stability, jobs, health, education and – most emphatically – agriculture. Arguing specifically against farm loan waivers, Rajan declared: “I have said forever that farm loan waivers should be taken off the table.” Most Indian farmers have small holdings of between one and four acres. The increase in minimum support price (MSP) to cost-plus-50 per cent is not a panacea. The formula to compute input costs itself is inaccurate as Ashok Gulati and Tirtha Chatterjee, writing in a daily, have pointed out: “Farmers are basically demanding three things: One, a debate in Parliament to discuss farm distress; two; a one-time loan waiver; and three, raising minimum support prices (MSPs) to 50 per cent above comprehensive cost (C2) of production, and making MSPs legally binding on private traders – that is, if any trader buys below MSP, he should be put in prison for, say, three years. The third demand, of setting higher MSPs and making them legally binding, is the most strange. Although the Modi government is already drum-beating that they have fulfilled the Swaminathan formula by giving a 50 per cent margin over A2+FL, people in this business know that they have changed the reference cost from C2 to A2+FL, which is about 38 per cent lower. In any case, an MSP formula based on just cost, be it A2+FL or C2, ignoring its demand side, is patently inefficient. It will cost the nation heavily in due course.” The real solution to farm distress lies elsewhere: technology and open markets. Between farm and fork are middlemen. They suck away a significant portion of the difference between the price at which the farmer sells his produce and the price the consumer pays. Ideally, this shouldn’t exceed 15-20 per cent, giving mandi operators, wholesalers and retailers sufficient profit margins. In reality, the margins can exceed 50 per cent. The farmer is shortchanged and the consumer too pays more than she should. This defective mechanism lies at the heart of why agriculture is an unremunerative occupation. Surveys show that over 75 per cent of the children of farmers don’t want to be farmers. The monopolistic Agriculture Produce Market Committee (APMC) decides the price farmers receive. Farmers who recently marched through Mumbai and Delhi want to sell their produce in open markets. An MSP-plus 50 per cent formula helps neither marginal farmers nor the government which has to balance food inflation (currently negative) with giving farmers remunerative prices. The Telangana model is to bypass MSP+50 per cent and hand out Rs 4,000 per acre for every cropping season. But handing out cash to big farmers with tens of acres of land would be a waste. Former Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha instead suggests a more pragmatic way forward: “All small and marginal farmer households, including tenant and sub-tenant farmers, should receive a basic income of Rs 6,000 per acre per crop season. This will work out to Rs 12,000 per household per annum. Farmers holding land in excess of 5 acres of irrigated land, who produce the disposable surplus and take advantage of the minimum support price may not be included in the scheme. For unirrigated holdings, the limit could be 10 acres. The total financial burden of this scheme, likely to be Rs 1.84 lakh crore, could be distributed in the ratio of 70:30 between the Centre and the states. The financial burden on the Centre will thus be Rs 1.29 lakh crore, less than 1 per cent of the country’s GDP. The total expenditure budget of the Government of India in 2018-19 is Rs 24.42 lakh crore. It is, therefore, not difficult to find this money within the resources available to it with better expenditure management.” The second step that can bring about a new green revolution and increase yield-per-acre of crops as China, the European Union (EU) and the United States have done is fast-tracking genetically modified crops. This has been strongly opposed but the science is increasingly clear: properly monitored, genetically modified crops can significantly increase yield per acre. By using the benefit of agricultural technology and allowing farmers to sell in open, transparent mandis, the vicious cycle of drought and farmer indebtedness can be converted into a virtuous cycle of high-yield crops and a market-discovered price for farmers’ produce. It could win back for Modi the confidence of a farming community that has long suffered economic distress. (This article was originally published on DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Farmers: PM Narendra Modi's 2019 challenge

Though the Congress leadership has come under a dark cloud over its role in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots and the life sentence given to its former MP Sajjan Kumar, the party hopes that the controversy over Kamal Nath, whose name is also involved in the riots, will soon die down. &nbsp;

1984 riots in the wake of Indira Gandhi’s assassination will remain a blot on the Congress till it squarely and openly admits the role of its leaders and shuns them from the party. But that controversy aside in the last few days Congress president Rahul Gandhi has scored a few crucial political points over its main rival the BJP. Despite some ugly wrangling over chief ministership in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the Gandhi scion has ensured a relatively smooth process of appointment of chief ministers in three central Indian states. &nbsp;

It is not just a coincidence that since the results of these crucial Assembly elections have come out the BJP President Amit Shah has not really spoken on it. He just said, “Congress might have won but the BJP hasn’t lost either”. In a way Shah is correct as barring Chhattisgarh, Congress has been able to reach the majority figure only with the help of allies like the BSP and SP, as well as some independents. Moreover, with the crushing defeat in Mizoram, the Congress lost its last bastion in the northeast there making it 'Congress Mukt'. &nbsp;

Despite that, on the whole, far from being 'Congress Mukt' the country seems to be warming up again to the grand old party and its young leader, Rahul Gandhi. 
 
Adding more allure to Rahul’s appeal are the farm loan-waivers being undertaken by MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan government. “Victory has many fathers and failure has none”, goes the saying. Today, this holds true for Rahul Gandhi as on one hand his acceptability both in the Congress old guard and the opposition ranks is now a debate that is settled.&nbsp;

DMK’s M K Stalin may have prematurely pushed for Rahul as the Opposition’s PM candidate, but even if it precipitated disapproving murmurs from parties like the TMC, Rahul’s case for becoming the face of 'Grand Alliance' has only been strengthened by the Assembly victories. &nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

&nbsp;

Though the Congress leadership has come under a dark cloud over its role in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots and the life sentence given to its former MP Sajjan Kumar, the party hopes that the controversy over Kamal Nath, whose name is also involved in the riots, will soon die down.

Though the Congress leadership has come under a dark cloud over its role in the 1984 anti-Sikh riots and the life sentence given to its former MP Sajjan Kumar, the party hopes that the controversy over Kamal Nath, whose name is also involved in the riots, will soon die down. 1984 riots in the wake of Indira Gandhi’s assassination will remain a blot on the Congress till it squarely and openly admits the role of its leaders and shuns them from the party. But that controversy aside in the last few days Congress president Rahul Gandhi has scored a few crucial political points over its main rival the BJP. Despite some ugly wrangling over chief ministership in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, the Gandhi scion has ensured a relatively smooth process of appointment of chief ministers in three central Indian states. It is not just a coincidence that since the results of these crucial Assembly elections have come out the BJP President Amit Shah has not really spoken on it. He just said, “Congress might have won but the BJP hasn’t lost either”. In a way Shah is correct as barring Chhattisgarh, Congress has been able to reach the majority figure only with the help of allies like the BSP and SP, as well as some independents. Moreover, with the crushing defeat in Mizoram, the Congress lost its last bastion in the northeast there making it 'Congress Mukt'. Despite that, on the whole, far from being 'Congress Mukt' the country seems to be warming up again to the grand old party and its young leader, Rahul Gandhi. Adding more allure to Rahul’s appeal are the farm loan-waivers being undertaken by MP, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan government. “Victory has many fathers and failure has none”, goes the saying. Today, this holds true for Rahul Gandhi as on one hand his acceptability both in the Congress old guard and the opposition ranks is now a debate that is settled. DMK’s M K Stalin may have prematurely pushed for Rahul as the Opposition’s PM candidate, but even if it precipitated disapproving murmurs from parties like the TMC, Rahul’s case for becoming the face of 'Grand Alliance' has only been strengthened by the Assembly victories. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Is it going to be Rahul Gandhi vs Narendra Modi in 2019?

Unexpected reverses suffered by the BJP-NDA combine in recent Assembly elections constrain us to speculate about their impact on India’s external relations-particularly in the neighbourhood. Ever since Narendra Modi assumed office he has set a blistering pace in diplomacy. It would only be churlish to deny him the credit for repositioning India on the international arena. He has tried to increase India’s strategic options and largely succeeded ( with the exception of setbacks in Pakistan) in projecting the image of resurgent India with a dynamic, decisive leader at the helm.&nbsp;

Now, the boat that appeared to be saying smoothly has been badly rocked. Some of his critics have long been suggesting that our PM has deliberately spent so much time abroad simply to escape any blame for minor or even major failures in domestic politics. But let’s let this pass as a legitimate pastime of frustrated opposition. However, what can’t be denied is the fact that the aura of invincibility exuded by a charismatic leader has lost much of its sparkle.&nbsp;

One can argue that it was only the campaigning by the PM that saved BJP from much worse rout and that state elections are fought, won and lost according to very different calculations then the Lok Sabha Polls but in the present context, this would appear as a half-hearted attempt at whitewashing an inglorious defeat.&nbsp;

What is more pertinent is to assess the likely reactions in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bhutan. If the Superman struck by Cryptonite turns out to be Clark Kent who can’t transform to cope with crises then do the smaller neighbours have to exercise restraint? Isn’t the signal going out that they can singly or jointly start flexing their puny muscles to challenge the ‘bullying, bragging and boasting ‘Big Brother’? Don’t get us wrong -we rent for a minute suggesting that India under Modi has behaved in a manner akin to what earned the Americans the prefix Ugly in the 1960s. But perceptions matter no less than reality in international relations. If Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives get the impression that India is beset with domestic strife they would find justification in making the most of the opportune moment. &nbsp;

Unfortunately for India, the election knock out has coincided with accusations about fudging growth figures, erosion of credibility of institutions like the RBI, CBI and even some exceptionally controversial observation by members of the Bench in higher judiciary. Political partisanship has certainly diminished the majesty of more than one constitutional authority or institution.&nbsp;

During the election campaign, the pitch of spoken word was unnecessarily raised by both sides. Alas the BJP let loose canons like the UP CM have a free run causing serious collateral damage. The shifting of focus from development to construction of Ram temple or going on a reckless mindless renaming spree has boomeranged on BJP.&nbsp;

Lok Sabha elections are still a few months away but even this short span of time can prove detrimental to India’s national interest. Time for us to remain on high alert without making too much noise. &nbsp;&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

Unexpected reverses suffered by the BJP-NDA combine in recent Assembly elections constrain us to speculate about their impact on India’s external relations-particularly in the neighbourhood.

Unexpected reverses suffered by the BJP-NDA combine in recent Assembly elections constrain us to speculate about their impact on India’s external relations-particularly in the neighbourhood. Ever since Narendra Modi assumed office he has set a blistering pace in diplomacy. It would only be churlish to deny him the credit for repositioning India on the international arena. He has tried to increase India’s strategic options and largely succeeded ( with the exception of setbacks in Pakistan) in projecting the image of resurgent India with a dynamic, decisive leader at the helm. Now, the boat that appeared to be saying smoothly has been badly rocked. Some of his critics have long been suggesting that our PM has deliberately spent so much time abroad simply to escape any blame for minor or even major failures in domestic politics. But let’s let this pass as a legitimate pastime of frustrated opposition. However, what can’t be denied is the fact that the aura of invincibility exuded by a charismatic leader has lost much of its sparkle. One can argue that it was only the campaigning by the PM that saved BJP from much worse rout and that state elections are fought, won and lost according to very different calculations then the Lok Sabha Polls but in the present context, this would appear as a half-hearted attempt at whitewashing an inglorious defeat. What is more pertinent is to assess the likely reactions in Nepal, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Bhutan. If the Superman struck by Cryptonite turns out to be Clark Kent who can’t transform to cope with crises then do the smaller neighbours have to exercise restraint? Isn’t the signal going out that they can singly or jointly start flexing their puny muscles to challenge the ‘bullying, bragging and boasting ‘Big Brother’? Don’t get us wrong -we rent for a minute suggesting that India under Modi has behaved in a manner akin to what earned the Americans the prefix Ugly in the 1960s. But perceptions matter no less than reality in international relations. If Nepal, Sri Lanka and the Maldives get the impression that India is beset with domestic strife they would find justification in making the most of the opportune moment. Unfortunately for India, the election knock out has coincided with accusations about fudging growth figures, erosion of credibility of institutions like the RBI, CBI and even some exceptionally controversial observation by members of the Bench in higher judiciary. Political partisanship has certainly diminished the majesty of more than one constitutional authority or institution. During the election campaign, the pitch of spoken word was unnecessarily raised by both sides. Alas the BJP let loose canons like the UP CM have a free run causing serious collateral damage. The shifting of focus from development to construction of Ram temple or going on a reckless mindless renaming spree has boomeranged on BJP. Lok Sabha elections are still a few months away but even this short span of time can prove detrimental to India’s national interest. Time for us to remain on high alert without making too much noise. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Domestic compulsions and foreign policy: PM Narendra Modi's balancing act

American Walter K Andersen, the author of the book on the RSS "The Brotherhood in Saffron" has been a keen South Asia watcher for decades. He has worked extensively for the US government at various levels from the days Henry Kissinger. He is in India once again witnessing the state elections and the big general elections in 2019.

He spoke exclusively to WION on the rise of the BJP &amp; RSS, PM Modi and his relations with President Trump and other big issues connected with the ruling party.

WION: How do you view PM Modi's tenure now that his government is set to face the electorate again next year?

Walter K Andersen: That is a complicated question because there are layers of success. India is now the fastest growing economy in the world today and that has been the status for the last four and a half years. The country has also received the largest foreign direct investment (FDI), I think it was $61 billion last year, which more than China. Also, infrastructure work has been going on but that has a delayed reaction, infrastructure work and FDI results do not show immediately.

The failure has been on the issue of jobs which has had a political impact but then no one could really do it because the number is quite high, in millions. He came into office with the expectation that he will be able to create a lot of jobs for many young people, but he has been able to help the poor... there are a large number of poor people. The health scheme is the perfect example, the gas cylinder scheme too.

WION: Also, the BJP is now in 19 states across India which seems to have fueled it.

Walter K Andersen: Yes, the Opposition wasn't able to put up candidates which captured the imagination of the people. There has been a blowback in the three states which have gone to the polls in which the BJP seems to be running neck-and-neck but they have been in power for quite a few years.

Rajasthan is an example which tends to go back and forth, so if they lose Rajasthan it won't be unusual. They have dominated Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh for quite some time, so it remains to be seen how much the anti-incumbency factor works against the BJP.

WION: As far as PM Modi the statesman is concerned, how does the West view him?

Walter K Andersen: Don't forget he could not visit the US for over a dozen years due to the Godhra riots but once it was clear he was going to be prime minister in 2014, the US ambassador at the time Nancy Powell went to visit him with flowers and there was a sense that maybe he wouldn't get a good reception but in fact he has. PM Modi has been able to turnaround his preception.

PM Modi invited Obama and they seemed to get along beautifully with each other. I understand he invited President Trump for the Republic Day celebrations but for some reason, it didn't work out but I won't be surprised if President Trump is not invited for the big event later.

WION: How do you view PM Modi's relations with President Trump?

Walter K Andersen: PM Modi worked at getting along, he did his homework on what President Trump was like, the prime minister is a very good politician. He is also a good actor, he has done it from when he was a child. If you watch him on the stage, he has a stage presence, he seems to be someone who was born for the stage.

He is also very good at private conversation, I have met him and he looks at you as if you are the most important person, unlike other prominent people who look over your shoulder. He remembers who you are and the circumstances in which you met him earlier which is very effective.

WION: And about your book "The Brotherhood In Saffron", how has that been viewed in India?

Walter K Andersen: Actually, PM Modi read it and said it is outdated, he didn't say write another one (laughs). It was of course written in 1988, at that time Congress was still the dominant party, the BJP was relatively a small party, but some things haven't changed.

The things that have changed is India's largest labour union, India's largest student group and India's largest party - the ruling party - and you can just go down the list and you can see how the RSS has penetrated in all parts of society.

WION: The rise of the RSS has been quite meteoric in the last few years.

Walter K Andersen: Yes, the growth was driven by the economic reforms of the 90s and as the Indian economy grew, urbanisation began to take place and that seems to have worked to the benefit of the Sangh including the BJP.

WION: How do you view the effect of the RSS on the party and then the country?

Walter K Andersen: Obviously, it has some influence. During the elections their cadre worked for the party. In the recent state elections, the RSS cadres went all out in Rajasthan and they used their polling network and the grassroots connect to find out how was the party faring and they got word that they have problems, so in the last few weeks they activated the cadre to attend the local meetings. In fact, the RSS is the best polling agency in India. They really go to the local level - the shakhas and they collect local information and pass it to the party.

WION: How do you think that affects the party?

Walter K Andersen: There is a common feeling that the BJP and the RSS sit down together but that is incorrect. Both are separate organizations and they have differences. Right now the big issue is the Ram Temple at Ayodhya.

WION: The view of the party and RSS it seems differs...

Walter K Andersen: Yes, the RSS and some of the affiliates like the VHP want the construction of the Ram Temple to start tomorrow but within the party, they think we need legislation and there are other views. The other big issue is on development.

The RSS has a much more older, protective view on the Indian economy. It is much less enthusiastic about FDI. The affiliates too the Mazdoor Sangh, the Swadeshi Jagran Manch were organised in the late 90s to oppose FDI and it still does.

WION: Is that good for the country?

Walter K Andersen: It certainly hasn't harmed the country, it has generated debate which one does not often see in political parties. It allows them to think. PM Modi sides with globalisation because he thinks it creates more jobs. He comes from a small enterprise background, his father ran a tea shop, so he understands you have to keep a ledger of inputs and outputs... so he understands as a young person the frustrations involved in moving up the ranks.

WION: In foreign affairs, what do you think has been PM Modi's greatest achievement?

Walter K Andersen: Ironically, I think it is getting India more involved in the international community and in relations with China. It now wants to improve its relations with India. PM Modi too wants to improve relations with China, he has been there several times. He has said some very complimentary things about China but he is a nationalist and the Chinese recognise it.

The RSS wants him to protect India's security and PM Modi has done it at Doklam, he has been able to do it and both sides declared victory which is the best thing - a win-win situation.

WION: And finally, how do you see Amit Shah and PM Modi working together?

Walter K Andersen: It is a remarkable pair. I haven't seen anything like it in Indian politics. There is an example of this in the late 19th century in Germany with Bismark who would organise things and the Emperor who was the public figure. A man like Amit Shah is all organization, he works the ground... he has no doubt built the most effective political organisation which is the BJP.

Amit Shah has worked at the booth level and has people who give feedback and analysis, so planning and execution helps the party and PM Modi and Amit Shah get along well too. They are two very self-possessed individuals, not insulted easily, a lot of people feel insulted, in that sense he is much like our President but then if you feel insulted, you should never be in politics.

I would like to have either one of them on my side in a battle, they are tough guys.

WION: But for the BJP the question is what next?

Walter K Andersen: Yes that is true, there does not seem to be a successor. It is true for Amit Shah as well. He has deputies but none that I know who is waiting to step in... the party needs both PM Modi and Amit Shah.

American Walter K Andersen, the author of the book on the RSS "The Brotherhood in Saffron" has been a keen South Asia watcher for decades. He has worked extensively for the US government at various levels from the days Henry Kissinger.

American Walter K Andersen, the author of the book on the RSS "The Brotherhood in Saffron" has been a keen South Asia watcher for decades. He has worked extensively for the US government at various levels from the days Henry Kissinger. He is in India once again witnessing the state elections and the big general elections in 2019. He spoke exclusively to WION on the rise of the BJP & RSS, PM Modi and his relations with President Trump and other big issues connected with the ruling party. WION: How do you view PM Modi's tenure now that his government is set to face the electorate again next year? Walter K Andersen: That is a complicated question because there are layers of success. India is now the fastest growing economy in the world today and that has been the status for the last four and a half years. The country has also received the largest foreign direct investment (FDI), I think it was $61 billion last year, which more than China. Also, infrastructure work has been going on but that has a delayed reaction, infrastructure work and FDI results do not show immediately. The failure has been on the issue of jobs which has had a political impact but then no one could really do it because the number is quite high, in millions. He came into office with the expectation that he will be able to create a lot of jobs for many young people, but he has been able to help the poor... there are a large number of poor people. The health scheme is the perfect example, the gas cylinder scheme too. WION: Also, the BJP is now in 19 states across India which seems to have fueled it. Walter K Andersen: Yes, the Opposition wasn't able to put up candidates which captured the imagination of the people. There has been a blowback in the three states which have gone to the polls in which the BJP seems to be running neck-and-neck but they have been in power for quite a few years. Rajasthan is an example which tends to go back and forth, so if they lose Rajasthan it won't be unusual. They have dominated Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh for quite some time, so it remains to be seen how much the anti-incumbency factor works against the BJP. WION: As far as PM Modi the statesman is concerned, how does the West view him? Walter K Andersen: Don't forget he could not visit the US for over a dozen years due to the Godhra riots but once it was clear he was going to be prime minister in 2014, the US ambassador at the time Nancy Powell went to visit him with flowers and there was a sense that maybe he wouldn't get a good reception but in fact he has. PM Modi has been able to turnaround his preception. PM Modi invited Obama and they seemed to get along beautifully with each other. I understand he invited President Trump for the Republic Day celebrations but for some reason, it didn't work out but I won't be surprised if President Trump is not invited for the big event later. WION: How do you view PM Modi's relations with President Trump? Walter K Andersen: PM Modi worked at getting along, he did his homework on what President Trump was like, the prime minister is a very good politician. He is also a good actor, he has done it from when he was a child. If you watch him on the stage, he has a stage presence, he seems to be someone who was born for the stage. He is also very good at private conversation, I have met him and he looks at you as if you are the most important person, unlike other prominent people who look over your shoulder. He remembers who you are and the circumstances in which you met him earlier which is very effective. WION: And about your book "The Brotherhood In Saffron", how has that been viewed in India? Walter K Andersen: Actually, PM Modi read it and said it is outdated, he didn't say write another one (laughs). It was of course written in 1988, at that time Congress was still the dominant party, the BJP was relatively a small party, but some things haven't changed. The things that have changed is India's largest labour union, India's largest student group and India's largest party - the ruling party - and you can just go down the list and you can see how the RSS has penetrated in all parts of society. WION: The rise of the RSS has been quite meteoric in the last few years. Walter K Andersen: Yes, the growth was driven by the economic reforms of the 90s and as the Indian economy grew, urbanisation began to take place and that seems to have worked to the benefit of the Sangh including the BJP. WION: How do you view the effect of the RSS on the party and then the country? Walter K Andersen: Obviously, it has some influence. During the elections their cadre worked for the party. In the recent state elections, the RSS cadres went all out in Rajasthan and they used their polling network and the grassroots connect to find out how was the party faring and they got word that they have problems, so in the last few weeks they activated the cadre to attend the local meetings. In fact, the RSS is the best polling agency in India. They really go to the local level - the shakhas and they collect local information and pass it to the party. WION: How do you think that affects the party? Walter K Andersen: There is a common feeling that the BJP and the RSS sit down together but that is incorrect. Both are separate organizations and they have differences. Right now the big issue is the Ram Temple at Ayodhya. WION: The view of the party and RSS it seems differs... Walter K Andersen: Yes, the RSS and some of the affiliates like the VHP want the construction of the Ram Temple to start tomorrow but within the party, they think we need legislation and there are other views. The other big issue is on development. The RSS has a much more older, protective view on the Indian economy. It is much less enthusiastic about FDI. The affiliates too the Mazdoor Sangh, the Swadeshi Jagran Manch were organised in the late 90s to oppose FDI and it still does. WION: Is that good for the country? Walter K Andersen: It certainly hasn't harmed the country, it has generated debate which one does not often see in political parties. It allows them to think. PM Modi sides with globalisation because he thinks it creates more jobs. He comes from a small enterprise background, his father ran a tea shop, so he understands you have to keep a ledger of inputs and outputs... so he understands as a young person the frustrations involved in moving up the ranks. WION: In foreign affairs, what do you think has been PM Modi's greatest achievement? Walter K Andersen: Ironically, I think it is getting India more involved in the international community and in relations with China. It now wants to improve its relations with India. PM Modi too wants to improve relations with China, he has been there several times. He has said some very complimentary things about China but he is a nationalist and the Chinese recognise it. The RSS wants him to protect India's security and PM Modi has done it at Doklam, he has been able to do it and both sides declared victory which is the best thing - a win-win situation. WION: And finally, how do you see Amit Shah and PM Modi working together? Walter K Andersen: It is a remarkable pair. I haven't seen anything like it in Indian politics. There is an example of this in the late 19th century in Germany with Bismark who would organise things and the Emperor who was the public figure. A man like Amit Shah is all organization, he works the ground... he has no doubt built the most effective political organisation which is the BJP. Amit Shah has worked at the booth level and has people who give feedback and analysis, so planning and execution helps the party and PM Modi and Amit Shah get along well too. They are two very self-possessed individuals, not insulted easily, a lot of people feel insulted, in that sense he is much like our President but then if you feel insulted, you should never be in politics. I would like to have either one of them on my side in a battle, they are tough guys. WION: But for the BJP the question is what next? Walter K Andersen: Yes that is true, there does not seem to be a successor. It is true for Amit Shah as well. He has deputies but none that I know who is waiting to step in... the party needs both PM Modi and Amit Shah.

Watch: PM Modi, Amit Shah a remarkable pair in Indian politics, says India watcher Andersen

The killing of police officer Subodh Kumar by a mob protesting alleged cow slaughter is deeply disturbing and points to growing religious polarisation in western UP months ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Along with Inspector Singh, who was shot from close range, a local village youth was also caught in the ruckus and died of bullet wounds.

The conflagration began when some people from Mahaw village created a roadblock on the Bulandshahr-Syana road after the carcass of a cow and its progeny was found in a jungle near the village.

The mob later resorted to heavy stone pelting against policemen who were trying to convince them to clear the road. They turned extremely violent burning down a local police post and vehicles parked there. The fact that Inspector Singh had bullet a wound also raises questions around the manner in which the anti-cow slaughter protest was organized. The slaughter of cows is banned in Uttar Pradesh and instances of alleged cow-killing have led to several incidents of mob lynching in the state. In fact, since Yogi Adityanath became the Chief Minister of UP in March 2017, UP police has been overzealous in enforcing the anti-cow slaughter law and shutting down slaughterhouses under the orders of the UP government. &nbsp;

The slain inspector, Subodh Kumar himself had been the investigating officer in the case of mob-lynching of Mohammad Akhlaq in September 2015 in Dadri, near Delhi. Akhlaq had been accused of stealing and killing a calf. The Dadri lynching had evoked national and international outrage against communalism and ‘intolerance’, and led to several prominent Indians returning their national awards and honours in protest. &nbsp;

The latest case of mob rampage in Bulandshahr comes in the backdrop of a three-day 'Tablighi Ijtema' or a religious gathering that began in the town on December 1. This incident occurred on the last day of Ijtema. It’s important to note here that the three-day Ijtema had passed off peacefully with even stories of Hindus opening their temples for Muslims to pray. This incident of violence over alleged cow slaughter has disturbed Hindu-Muslim harmony once again.

Also worth remembering is the fact that earlier this year, under chief minister Yogi Adityanath's watch BJP lost three crucial Lok Sabha bypolls in Uttar Pradesh. Yogi’s own constituency of Gorakhpur was lost to a debut contender from the Samajwadi Party- BSP combine. Similarly, BJP lost the prestigious Phulpur seat to another candidate from the SP-BSP alliance. And perhaps more relevant against the backdrop of the Bulandshahr violence, the BJP also lost the nearby Kairana Lok Sabha seat to a Muslim woman, Tabassum Hasan who fought on a Rashtriya Lok Dal ticket and was backed by the SP-BSP combine.

This time around, given the deteriorating law and order situation in the state and increasing resentment among Dalits and Muslims against the government, the BJP has an uphill task ahead of the 2019 elections.&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

The killing of police officer Subodh Kumar by a mob protesting alleged cow slaughter is deeply disturbing and points to growing religious polarisation in western UP months ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha elections.

The killing of police officer Subodh Kumar by a mob protesting alleged cow slaughter is deeply disturbing and points to growing religious polarisation in western UP months ahead of 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Along with Inspector Singh, who was shot from close range, a local village youth was also caught in the ruckus and died of bullet wounds. The conflagration began when some people from Mahaw village created a roadblock on the Bulandshahr-Syana road after the carcass of a cow and its progeny was found in a jungle near the village. The mob later resorted to heavy stone pelting against policemen who were trying to convince them to clear the road. They turned extremely violent burning down a local police post and vehicles parked there. The fact that Inspector Singh had bullet a wound also raises questions around the manner in which the anti-cow slaughter protest was organized. The slaughter of cows is banned in Uttar Pradesh and instances of alleged cow-killing have led to several incidents of mob lynching in the state. In fact, since Yogi Adityanath became the Chief Minister of UP in March 2017, UP police has been overzealous in enforcing the anti-cow slaughter law and shutting down slaughterhouses under the orders of the UP government. The slain inspector, Subodh Kumar himself had been the investigating officer in the case of mob-lynching of Mohammad Akhlaq in September 2015 in Dadri, near Delhi. Akhlaq had been accused of stealing and killing a calf. The Dadri lynching had evoked national and international outrage against communalism and ‘intolerance’, and led to several prominent Indians returning their national awards and honours in protest. The latest case of mob rampage in Bulandshahr comes in the backdrop of a three-day 'Tablighi Ijtema' or a religious gathering that began in the town on December 1. This incident occurred on the last day of Ijtema. It’s important to note here that the three-day Ijtema had passed off peacefully with even stories of Hindus opening their temples for Muslims to pray. This incident of violence over alleged cow slaughter has disturbed Hindu-Muslim harmony once again. Also worth remembering is the fact that earlier this year, under chief minister Yogi Adityanath's watch BJP lost three crucial Lok Sabha bypolls in Uttar Pradesh. Yogi’s own constituency of Gorakhpur was lost to a debut contender from the Samajwadi Party- BSP combine. Similarly, BJP lost the prestigious Phulpur seat to another candidate from the SP-BSP alliance. And perhaps more relevant against the backdrop of the Bulandshahr violence, the BJP also lost the nearby Kairana Lok Sabha seat to a Muslim woman, Tabassum Hasan who fought on a Rashtriya Lok Dal ticket and was backed by the SP-BSP combine. This time around, given the deteriorating law and order situation in the state and increasing resentment among Dalits and Muslims against the government, the BJP has an uphill task ahead of the 2019 elections. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Bulandshahr violence and UP politics ahead of Lok Sabha elections 2019

After Mamata Banerjee, another Opposition's warrior has stepped up&nbsp;efforts to unite anti-BJP forces ahead of Lok Sabha elections 2019.

Over the past few weeks, Naidu met several opposition leaders and gave some brazen statements against the ruling party. He said that it's the responsibility of opposition leaders to defeat the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and save the democracy.

Most importantly, Naidu dropped his 'non-Congress Third Front' plank and met party president Rahul Gandhi. Both the leaders stressed on the need for Opposition unity to save the nation. They maintained it's a democratic compulsion for the TDP and Congress to come together setting aside their differences.

Furthermore, Naidu also met West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, National Conference chief Farooq Abdullah, NCP chief Sharad Pawar, former prime minister HD Deve Gowda, his son and chief minister of Karnataka HD Kumaraswamy and DMK chief MK Stalin to put up united face against the BJP.

Asserting that the nation is under threat, the TDP chief has convened a meeting of the Opposition leaders in December to discuss future strategies to defeat the BJP in 2019 elections.

Naidu had pulled out of the NDA in March this year over the Centre's refusal to grant special status to Andhra Pradesh.

A few days ago, Mamata Banerjee was running from pillar to post to unite the opposition, but now Chandrababu Naidu is racing ahead of her. However, they both are in sync with each other to achieve their common goal - demolishing BJP.

The two interlocutors - Naidu and Mamata, have been trying to stitch an anti-BJP alliance for quite some time now. They have made communalism, attack on institutions like RBI, CBI and economic crisis under the NDA-rule as main grounds to garner the support of the Opposition parties.&nbsp;

The 'Third Front' could be a definite possibility in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and several state elections prove it quite clearly. In Uttar Pradesh bypolls, Samajwadi Party, backed by the BSP, defeated the BJP in Phulpur and Gorakhpur constituency. &nbsp;

In 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, the Saffron party met a similar fate when Congress and JD(S) formed a coalition government in the state despite BJP emerging as the single largest party.&nbsp;

Moreover, in the recent Karnataka bypolls, the ruling coalition - JDS-Congress stunned BJP by winning both the Assembly seats and two of the three Lok Sabha seats. This came as a morale booster for the Opposition in the run-up to 2019 Assembly elections.&nbsp;

Meanwhile, in another significant development, PDP, with the support of Congress and National Conference, has staked claim to form the government in Jammu and Kashmir. This is an important realignment of political forces in the state wherein NC and PDP have set aside their rivalry to take on the BJP.

It seems there is no competition among the opposition leaders for declaring the face of Opposition (at least for now). Acting wisely, Naidu has chosen to go along with Mamata Banerjee on this, and after a round of talks both the leaders announced - "Everyone will be the face of Mahagathbandhan."

Senior Opposition leaders like Sharad Pawar, Farooq Abdullah have authorised Naidu to speak to various state leaders to bring all anti-BJP forces together. The TDP chief has reportedly assured them of convincing Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati to become part of the 'Grand Secular Alliance' against the saffron party.

Currently, there is no credible alternative leader to lead the pack of anti-BJP forces. With major Opposition parties singing in chorus against the BJP, 'Third Front' is no more a distant dream.&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

After Mamata Banerjee, another Opposition's warrior has stepped up efforts to unite anti-BJP forces ahead of Lok Sabha elections 2019. Over the past few weeks, Naidu met several opposition leaders and gave some brazen statements against the ruling party.

After Mamata Banerjee, another Opposition's warrior has stepped up efforts to unite anti-BJP forces ahead of Lok Sabha elections 2019. Over the past few weeks, Naidu met several opposition leaders and gave some brazen statements against the ruling party. He said that it's the responsibility of opposition leaders to defeat the BJP in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and save the democracy. Most importantly, Naidu dropped his 'non-Congress Third Front' plank and met party president Rahul Gandhi. Both the leaders stressed on the need for Opposition unity to save the nation. They maintained it's a democratic compulsion for the TDP and Congress to come together setting aside their differences. Furthermore, Naidu also met West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee, National Conference chief Farooq Abdullah, NCP chief Sharad Pawar, former prime minister HD Deve Gowda, his son and chief minister of Karnataka HD Kumaraswamy and DMK chief MK Stalin to put up united face against the BJP. Asserting that the nation is under threat, the TDP chief has convened a meeting of the Opposition leaders in December to discuss future strategies to defeat the BJP in 2019 elections. Naidu had pulled out of the NDA in March this year over the Centre's refusal to grant special status to Andhra Pradesh. A few days ago, Mamata Banerjee was running from pillar to post to unite the opposition, but now Chandrababu Naidu is racing ahead of her. However, they both are in sync with each other to achieve their common goal - demolishing BJP. The two interlocutors - Naidu and Mamata, have been trying to stitch an anti-BJP alliance for quite some time now. They have made communalism, attack on institutions like RBI, CBI and economic crisis under the NDA-rule as main grounds to garner the support of the Opposition parties. The 'Third Front' could be a definite possibility in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and several state elections prove it quite clearly. In Uttar Pradesh bypolls, Samajwadi Party, backed by the BSP, defeated the BJP in Phulpur and Gorakhpur constituency. In 2018 Karnataka Assembly elections, the Saffron party met a similar fate when Congress and JD(S) formed a coalition government in the state despite BJP emerging as the single largest party. Moreover, in the recent Karnataka bypolls, the ruling coalition - JDS-Congress stunned BJP by winning both the Assembly seats and two of the three Lok Sabha seats. This came as a morale booster for the Opposition in the run-up to 2019 Assembly elections. Meanwhile, in another significant development, PDP, with the support of Congress and National Conference, has staked claim to form the government in Jammu and Kashmir. This is an important realignment of political forces in the state wherein NC and PDP have set aside their rivalry to take on the BJP. It seems there is no competition among the opposition leaders for declaring the face of Opposition (at least for now). Acting wisely, Naidu has chosen to go along with Mamata Banerjee on this, and after a round of talks both the leaders announced - "Everyone will be the face of Mahagathbandhan." Senior Opposition leaders like Sharad Pawar, Farooq Abdullah have authorised Naidu to speak to various state leaders to bring all anti-BJP forces together. The TDP chief has reportedly assured them of convincing Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati to become part of the 'Grand Secular Alliance' against the saffron party. Currently, there is no credible alternative leader to lead the pack of anti-BJP forces. With major Opposition parties singing in chorus against the BJP, 'Third Front' is no more a distant dream. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Chandrababu Naidu - Opposition's trump card to unite anti-BJP forces

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