The global shipping industry is facing tens of billions of dollars in estimated costs and losses per day after just three days of regional conflict arising from the US-Israel attack on Iran and Tehran's retaliatory strikes on Gulf nations, coupled with disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz. Freight charges have surged given security risks, with some reports citing increases of up to $400,000 per day. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 per cent of global seaborne oil, approximately 20–21 million barrels per day before the conflict began. It also handles a similar share of LNG exports, primarily from Qatar.<h2>At least 750 ships hit by congestion</h2>As Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, nearly 750 ships are reportedly impacted by congestion in and around the waterway,. Only a few tankers were transiting compared with the normal 130 per day, as ship traffic through the strait plunged by about 86 per cent. Hundreds of vessels are queued on either side.Some 100 container ships, representing about 10 per cent of the global container fleet, are caught in the backups and unable to transit normally because insurers have withdrawn war-risk coverage and carriers are avoiding the area.<h2>Maersk and other major carriers suspend operations</h2>Maersk, one of the world’s largest container carriers, suspended acceptance of new bookings on key routes in and out of the Middle East, including Gulf states like UAE and Oman, and has paused some operations to safeguard cargo and crews. Other major carriers such as MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and COSCO have also stopped transits through the Strait of Hormuz or rerouted services to avoid the affected waters.<h2>From freight rates to war-risk premiums, shipping costs shoot through the roof</h2>Freight rates for oil tankers have surged to record highs, reportedly up to $400,000 per day in the case of Very Large Crude Carriers or VLCCs transporting crude from the Middle East to China due to route disruptions and elevated risk. LNG tanker rates have surged more than 40 per cent, with some routes reaching $41,000–$61,500 per day according to reports.Shipping companies have introduced emergency conflict surcharges of up to $4,000 per container to offset added risks and expenses. War-risk insurance premiums have risen sharply or been cancelled entirely for vessels in the region, forcing carriers to either pay much higher insurance or avoid the strait altogether.<h2>Ripple effect: A sharp rise in oil and gas prices</h2>The fuel transit disruption, along with Iran’s attacks on oil and gas facilities in producer nations like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, has contributed to sharply rising oil and gas prices, which in turn increase operating costs for ships worldwide. Brent crude futures spiked nearly 10–13 per cent in direct response to the conflict, trading nearly $77–$85 per barrel, with fears of $100 or even $200 per barrel in prolonged disruption scenarios.Indirect costs include higher freight rates, insurance surcharges, longer detour routes, and idle vessels, potentially amounting to tens of billions of dollars.&nbsp;All these factors point to mounting economic stress across the shipping and freight industry.More than 150 oil and LNG tankers and other vessels are currently stranded or forced to anchor outside the strait due to the escalating conflict and safety concerns. Idling loaded LNG vessels also incur significant boil-off losses, which could be up to 100 tonnes per day per large vessel, impacting fuel and cargo value.<h2>Longer routes bleed the shipping industry</h2>There is a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz despite no official full blockade by Iran. Direct attacks on vessels, threats to close the strait, and GPS jamming have led to the rerouting of vessels, often around the Cape of Good Hope, or anchoring in safer waters. These developments have contributed to a near-total halt in commercial traffic, with tanker and bulk traffic dropping by 80 per cent or more.<h2>A dire prognosis: Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted for weeks. Another oil shock in the making?</h2>Analysts warn that if the strait remains disrupted for weeks, costs to global goods and energy markets could grow larger. Some estimates suggest global oil supply disruptions equivalent to 20 per cent of daily world consumption. A one-day full blockade of Hormuz could spike potentially double the oil prices in extreme scenarios, translating to billions in daily global economic costs. Clearly, the clock is ticking as stranded ships, surcharges, higher insurance and rate spikes are leading to mouting costs &nbsp;Disclaimer: WION takes utmost care to accurately and responsibly report ongoing conflicts in West Asia involving Israel, Iran, US, Gulf nations and non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Islamic State, and others. Claims and counterclaims, disinformation and misinformation are being made online and offline. Given this context, WION cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, social media posts, photos and videos.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Global shipping costs have gone up since the US-Israel attacks on Iran, its retaliatory strikes on Gulf nations and the Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Maersk and other carriers suspended operations, freight rates are soaring, war-risk insurance spiking, and vessels stranded.

The global shipping industry is facing tens of billions of dollars in estimated costs and losses per day after just three days of regional conflict arising from the US-Israel attack on Iran and Tehran's retaliatory strikes on Gulf nations, coupled with disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz. Freight charges have surged given security risks, with some reports citing increases of up to $400,000 per day. The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20 per cent of global seaborne oil, approximately 20–21 million barrels per day before the conflict began. It also handles a similar share of LNG exports, primarily from Qatar. At least 750 ships hit by congestion As Iran effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, nearly 750 ships are reportedly impacted by congestion in and around the waterway,. Only a few tankers were transiting compared with the normal 130 per day, as ship traffic through the strait plunged by about 86 per cent. Hundreds of vessels are queued on either side. Some 100 container ships, representing about 10 per cent of the global container fleet, are caught in the backups and unable to transit normally because insurers have withdrawn war-risk coverage and carriers are avoiding the area. Maersk and other major carriers suspend operations Maersk, one of the world’s largest container carriers, suspended acceptance of new bookings on key routes in and out of the Middle East, including Gulf states like UAE and Oman, and has paused some operations to safeguard cargo and crews. Other major carriers such as MSC, CMA CGM, Hapag-Lloyd, and COSCO have also stopped transits through the Strait of Hormuz or rerouted services to avoid the affected waters. From freight rates to war-risk premiums, shipping costs shoot through the roof Freight rates for oil tankers have surged to record highs, reportedly up to $400,000 per day in the case of Very Large Crude Carriers or VLCCs transporting crude from the Middle East to China due to route disruptions and elevated risk. LNG tanker rates have surged more than 40 per cent, with some routes reaching $41,000–$61,500 per day according to reports. Shipping companies have introduced emergency conflict surcharges of up to $4,000 per container to offset added risks and expenses. War-risk insurance premiums have risen sharply or been cancelled entirely for vessels in the region, forcing carriers to either pay much higher insurance or avoid the strait altogether. Ripple effect: A sharp rise in oil and gas prices The fuel transit disruption, along with Iran’s attacks on oil and gas facilities in producer nations like Qatar and Saudi Arabia, has contributed to sharply rising oil and gas prices, which in turn increase operating costs for ships worldwide. Brent crude futures spiked nearly 10–13 per cent in direct response to the conflict, trading nearly $77–$85 per barrel, with fears of $100 or even $200 per barrel in prolonged disruption scenarios. Indirect costs include higher freight rates, insurance surcharges, longer detour routes, and idle vessels, potentially amounting to tens of billions of dollars. All these factors point to mounting economic stress across the shipping and freight industry. More than 150 oil and LNG tankers and other vessels are currently stranded or forced to anchor outside the strait due to the escalating conflict and safety concerns. Idling loaded LNG vessels also incur significant boil-off losses, which could be up to 100 tonnes per day per large vessel, impacting fuel and cargo value. Longer routes bleed the shipping industry There is a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz despite no official full blockade by Iran. Direct attacks on vessels, threats to close the strait, and GPS jamming have led to the rerouting of vessels, often around the Cape of Good Hope, or anchoring in safer waters. These developments have contributed to a near-total halt in commercial traffic, with tanker and bulk traffic dropping by 80 per cent or more. A dire prognosis: Strait of Hormuz could be disrupted for weeks. Another oil shock in the making? Analysts warn that if the strait remains disrupted for weeks, costs to global goods and energy markets could grow larger. Some estimates suggest global oil supply disruptions equivalent to 20 per cent of daily world consumption. A one-day full blockade of Hormuz could spike potentially double the oil prices in extreme scenarios, translating to billions in daily global economic costs. Clearly, the clock is ticking as stranded ships, surcharges, higher insurance and rate spikes are leading to mouting costs Disclaimer: WION takes utmost care to accurately and responsibly report ongoing conflicts in West Asia involving Israel, Iran, US, Gulf nations and non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Islamic State, and others. Claims and counterclaims, disinformation and misinformation are being made online and offline. Given this context, WION cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, social media posts, photos and videos.

Global shipping costs have gone up since the US-Israel attacks on Iran, its retaliatory strikes on Gulf nations and the Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Maersk and other carriers suspended operations, freight rates are soaring, war-risk insurance spiking, and vessels stranded.&nbsp;

$400,000 freight rate for large vessels, hundreds of ships stranded: Shipping, freight industries face rude shock from Israel-US vs Iran conflict

Crude oil prices surged 10% to around $80 per barrel following escalating U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran and warnings from Middle East leaders that prices could exceed $100 per barrel. Experts cite the closure of the Strait of Hormuz — a critical chokepoint for over 20% of global oil shipments — as the key driver behind the spike.

Futures trading remained closed over the weekend, but analysts from ICIS and Rystad Energy predict that sustained disruption could push prices as high as $100–$92 per barrel once markets reopen. OPEC has agreed to a modest output increase of 206,000 barrels per day from April, but experts say this will barely offset supply losses.

Israel-US War Against Iran: Crude Oil Prices Jump 10% On Iran War, $100 Per Barrel Likely

The global oil prices saw their most significant surge on Monday (Mar 02) in four years after it spiked nearly 10 per cent, hitting a high of Rs 6,700 (roughly $80-$82) per barrel as the US-Israeli strike on Iran entered a crucial phase, extending the conflict across the Gulf countries. The most substantial to the oil market comes after Saudi Arabia's state oil giant Aramco shut its Ras Tanura refinery after it was hit by an Iranian drone.&nbsp;Saudi defence officials confirmed they intercepted the drones, but falling shrapnel caused a "limited fire" at the facility. While the fire was quickly extinguished with no reported casualties, Saudi Aramco elected to shut down the refinery as a precautionary measure.&nbsp;The Ras Tanura complex, on the kingdom’s Gulf coast, houses one of the Middle East’s largest refineries with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) and serves as a critical export terminal for Saudi crude. It handles roughly 7% of the global oil supply flows.The attack is also likely to move Saudi Arebaia and neighbouring Gulf states closer to joining the US and Israeli military operations against Iran.&nbsp;Along with the shutdown of Saudi refinery, the global oil supply came under severe strain following Iran's Revolutionary Guards closing the Strait of Hormuz, which controls nearly 20 per cent of the world's oil supply and 30 per cent of oil shipments to India.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/watch-saudi-aramco-suspends-ras-tanura-operations-after-drone-strike-amid-israel-iran-war-1772451329582">WATCH | Saudi Aramco suspends Ras Tanura operations after drone strike amid Israel-Iran war</a>&nbsp;The US-Israeli operation in Iran entered its third day on Monday after assassinating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a precision strike on a high-security compound in Tehran. Several other top leaders were also killed after the US and Israel launched a massive coordinated aerial campaign on Saturday. The strikes, codenamed Operation Roaring Lion by Israel and Operation Epic Fury by the United States, struck multiple sites across Iran. The strikes targeted government buildings in Tehran and suspected nuclear facilities, specifically aiming to decapitate the highest levels of Iranian leadership. In retaliation, Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched strikes on Israel, US military bases, and its allies across West Asia, including Qatar, Iraq, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.Meanwhile, Trump threatened Iranian forces to put down their weapons and called on Iran's people to rise to "take back your country" as this is "the single greatest chance" after Khamenei's death.&nbsp;&nbsp;(Disclaimer: WION takes utmost care to accurately and responsibly report ongoing conflicts in West Asia involving Israel, Iran, the US, Gulf nations and non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Islamic State, and others. Claims and counterclaims, disinformation and misinformation are being made online and offline. Given this context, WION cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, social media posts, photos and videos.)

The Ras Tanura complex, on the kingdom’s Gulf coast, houses one of the Middle East’s largest refineries with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) and serves as a critical export terminal for Saudi crude.

The global oil prices saw their most significant surge on Monday (Mar 02) in four years after it spiked nearly 10 per cent, hitting a high of Rs 6,700 (roughly $80-$82) per barrel as the US-Israeli strike on Iran entered a crucial phase, extending the conflict across the Gulf countries. The most substantial to the oil market comes after Saudi Arabia's state oil giant Aramco shut its Ras Tanura refinery after it was hit by an Iranian drone. Saudi defence officials confirmed they intercepted the drones, but falling shrapnel caused a "limited fire" at the facility. While the fire was quickly extinguished with no reported casualties, Saudi Aramco elected to shut down the refinery as a precautionary measure. The Ras Tanura complex, on the kingdom’s Gulf coast, houses one of the Middle East’s largest refineries with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) and serves as a critical export terminal for Saudi crude. It handles roughly 7% of the global oil supply flows. The attack is also likely to move Saudi Arebaia and neighbouring Gulf states closer to joining the US and Israeli military operations against Iran. Along with the shutdown of Saudi refinery, the global oil supply came under severe strain following Iran's Revolutionary Guards closing the Strait of Hormuz, which controls nearly 20 per cent of the world's oil supply and 30 per cent of oil shipments to India. Also Read: WATCH | Saudi Aramco suspends Ras Tanura operations after drone strike amid Israel-Iran war The US-Israeli operation in Iran entered its third day on Monday after assassinating Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a precision strike on a high-security compound in Tehran. Several other top leaders were also killed after the US and Israel launched a massive coordinated aerial campaign on Saturday. The strikes, codenamed Operation Roaring Lion by Israel and Operation Epic Fury by the United States, struck multiple sites across Iran. The strikes targeted government buildings in Tehran and suspected nuclear facilities, specifically aiming to decapitate the highest levels of Iranian leadership. In retaliation, Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched strikes on Israel, US military bases, and its allies across West Asia, including Qatar, Iraq, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. Meanwhile, Trump threatened Iranian forces to put down their weapons and called on Iran's people to rise to "take back your country" as this is "the single greatest chance" after Khamenei's death. (Disclaimer: WION takes utmost care to accurately and responsibly report ongoing conflicts in West Asia involving Israel, Iran, the US, Gulf nations and non-state actors like Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Islamic State, and others. Claims and counterclaims, disinformation and misinformation are being made online and offline. Given this context, WION cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, social media posts, photos and videos.)

The Ras Tanura complex, on the kingdom’s Gulf coast, houses one of the Middle East’s largest refineries with a capacity of 550,000 barrels per day (bpd) and serves as a critical export terminal for Saudi crude.

Will oil prices skyrocket? Saudi Arabia shuts its largest refinery after Iran strike

Oil prices late on Thursday (Jan 15) dropped by three per cent following US President Donald Trump's comments that Iran's security forces had stopped killing protesters. West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.0 per cent to $60.16 per barrel while Brent crude was down 2.93 per cent to $64.57.Also read | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/donald-trump-says-iran-has-stopped-killing-protesters-but-keeps-military-option-open-we-re-going-to-watch-it-and-see-1768438100885">Donald Trump says Iran has 'stopped killing protesters,' but keeps military option open: 'We're going to watch it and see'</a><h2>What did Trump say?</h2>Speaking at the White House on Wednesday (Jan 14), Trump said he had received assurances from what he described as "very important sources on the other side" that the violent crackdown on demonstrations had stopped and that planned executions would not go ahead. He offered no further details and stressed that the information had not yet been independently confirmed.Also read | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/iran-accuses-us-of-plotting-regime-change-after-trump-tells-protestors-help-is-on-its-way-1768353184275">Iran accuses US of plotting 'regime change' after Trump tells protesters, 'HELP IS ON ITS WAY'</a>"They've said the killing has stopped and the executions won't take place," Trump said. "There were supposed to be a lot of executions today, and that the executions won't take place -- and we're going to find out."However, when pressed on whether US military action in Iran was now off the table, Trump struck a cautious note and said, "We're going to watch it and see what the process is".&nbsp;<h2>Oil prices experience volatility amid Iran-US tensions</h2>As the world awaits with bated breath a possible US military intervention in Iran, amid concerns that the situation could restrict supplies of crude, oil prices on Wednesday had risen by around 1.5 per cent. In the week which ended January 9, crude stocks had climbed by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations of a 1.7 million-barrel draw.<a href="https://www.wionews.com/videos/iran-unrest-allies-warn-iran-strike-could-backfire-boost-regime-1768414835053/embed">https://www.wionews.com/videos/iran-unrest-allies-warn-iran-strike-could-backfire-boost-regime-1768414835053/embed</a>Analyst Michael Wan of financial group MUFG, who earlier this week noted that Iran makes up three per cent of global oil production, on Thursday said that Trump's latest comments "come even as the United States has redeployed some personnel in Qatar and other American bases from ongoing geopolitical tensions and possible Iranian threats to target those locations".&nbsp;&nbsp;<h2>&nbsp;</h2>

Oil prices slid nearly 3 per cent after Donald Trump said Iran had halted killings of protesters, easing fears of imminent US military action. Markets reacted fast as geopolitical risk cooled, although uncertainty over Iran and US moves remains.

Oil prices late on Thursday (Jan 15) dropped by three per cent following US President Donald Trump's comments that Iran's security forces had stopped killing protesters. West Texas Intermediate dropped 3.0 per cent to $60.16 per barrel while Brent crude was down 2.93 per cent to $64.57. Also read | Donald Trump says Iran has 'stopped killing protesters,' but keeps military option open: 'We're going to watch it and see' What did Trump say? Speaking at the White House on Wednesday (Jan 14), Trump said he had received assurances from what he described as "very important sources on the other side" that the violent crackdown on demonstrations had stopped and that planned executions would not go ahead. He offered no further details and stressed that the information had not yet been independently confirmed. Also read | Iran accuses US of plotting 'regime change' after Trump tells protesters, 'HELP IS ON ITS WAY' "They've said the killing has stopped and the executions won't take place," Trump said. "There were supposed to be a lot of executions today, and that the executions won't take place -- and we're going to find out." However, when pressed on whether US military action in Iran was now off the table, Trump struck a cautious note and said, "We're going to watch it and see what the process is". Oil prices experience volatility amid Iran-US tensions As the world awaits with bated breath a possible US military intervention in Iran, amid concerns that the situation could restrict supplies of crude, oil prices on Wednesday had risen by around 1.5 per cent. In the week which ended January 9, crude stocks had climbed by 3.4 million barrels to 422.4 million barrels, compared with analysts' expectations of a 1.7 million-barrel draw. https://www.wionews.com/videos/iran-unrest-allies-warn-iran-strike-could-backfire-boost-regime-1768414835053/embed Analyst Michael Wan of financial group MUFG, who earlier this week noted that Iran makes up three per cent of global oil production, on Thursday said that Trump's latest comments "come even as the United States has redeployed some personnel in Qatar and other American bases from ongoing geopolitical tensions and possible Iranian threats to target those locations".

Oil prices slid nearly 3 per cent after Donald Trump said Iran had halted killings of protesters, easing fears of imminent US military action. Markets reacted fast as geopolitical risk cooled, although uncertainty over Iran and US moves remains.

Oil prices plunge nearly 3% after Trump says Iran protest killings have stopped | Markets react

In January 2026, U.S.-Iran tensions have pushed WTI oil to $59, but a record 3.8 million bpd surplus limits gains. Unrest in Iran and U.S. sanctions threaten the Strait of Hormuz, risking flows to India and China.

In January 2026, U.S.-Iran tensions have pushed WTI oil to $59, but a record 3.8 million bpd surplus limits gains. Unrest in Iran and U.S. sanctions threaten the Strait of Hormuz, risking flows to India and China.

U.S. vs. Iran: How a war could affect global oil prices

In 2025, crude oil fell over 20 percent to post its deepest annual loss since 2020 on surplus concerns. A punishing supply is expected to weigh on prices this year as well. However, fuel prices at Indian pumps have remained elevated since the government cut petrol and diesel prices in march 2024. In this next report, we dive into why fuel prices haven't come down in the country despite a significant fall in international crude. Take a look.

Indians See No Change in Fuel Prices Despite Crude Plunge

The drums of war are beating in the Caribbean. With President Trump ordering a "total blockade" on Venezuela, Indian commuters worry: will this trigger a petrol price hike? The answer lies in a mix of Russian imports and a massive global oil surplus.

The drums of war are beating in the Caribbean. With President Trump ordering a "total blockade" on Venezuela, Indian commuters worry: will this trigger a petrol price hike? The answer lies in a mix of Russian imports and a massive global oil surplus.

Will oil prices rise in India if US starts a war against Venezuela?

Oil prices surged approximately 1.5 per cent on Monday following the OPEC+ announcement of a more modest monthly production increase than anticipated. The rise in prices tempered some concerns about supply additions; however, analysts expect near-term profits to be limited by a soft demand outlook. The price of Brent crude rose to 91 cents, or 1.4%, to $65.44 a barrel by 0315 GMT, and the US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.77, up 89 cents, or 1.5%&nbsp;"The price jump has primarily been boosted by OPEC+'s decision for a lower-than-expected production hike next month as the group intended to buffer the recent slump in oil markets," said independent analyst Tina Teng, news agency Reuters reported.&nbsp;The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Russia and some other smaller nations, assured on Sunday that it would increase production from November by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), similar to the modest monthly increase in October, amid continuously rising concerns over a looming supply glut.<h3>Russia supports an increase in oil production</h3>Sources indicated that Russia was supporting an output increase of 137,000 bpd in order to skip pressures due to the rise in prices, but Saudi Arabia would have opted for double, triple or even quadruple to regain market share rapidly.&nbsp;"OPEC+'s decision to increase production by another 137,000 bpd in November could be manageable in light of rising supply disruptions due to tightening sanctions by the U.S. and Europe against Russia and Iran," ANZ analysts stated in a note on Monday.&nbsp;"Meanwhile, Ukraine continued to intensify its attacks on Russian energy facilities, targeting the Kirishi refinery, one of Russia's largest refineries, with an annual processing capacity exceeding 20 million tonnes," the analysts added.&nbsp;Meanwhile, the finance ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) nations announced last week that they would intensify pressure on Russia by targeting buyers who continue to increase imports of Russian oil and those helping to bypass sanctions, in an effort to curb Moscow’s revenue amid the war in Ukraine. Still, analysts believe that weak demand fundamentals in the fourth quarter will likely limit short-term price increases.&nbsp;Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, noted that in the absence of fresh bullish drivers and with uncertainty clouding the demand outlook, oil prices are expected to remain restrained despite OPEC+ opting for a smaller-than-anticipated output hike.&nbsp;"The reality is that the market is gradually shifting toward a phase of oversupply, with seasonal demand expected to taper off into winter and macro data offering little upside impulse," she added.&nbsp;&nbsp;

The rise in prices tempered some concerns about supply additions; however, analysts expect near-term profits to be limited by a soft demand outlook. 

Oil prices surged approximately 1.5 per cent on Monday following the OPEC+ announcement of a more modest monthly production increase than anticipated. The rise in prices tempered some concerns about supply additions; however, analysts expect near-term profits to be limited by a soft demand outlook. The price of Brent crude rose to 91 cents, or 1.4%, to $65.44 a barrel by 0315 GMT, and the US West Texas Intermediate crude was at $61.77, up 89 cents, or 1.5% "The price jump has primarily been boosted by OPEC+'s decision for a lower-than-expected production hike next month as the group intended to buffer the recent slump in oil markets," said independent analyst Tina Teng, news agency Reuters reported. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, including Russia and some other smaller nations, assured on Sunday that it would increase production from November by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), similar to the modest monthly increase in October, amid continuously rising concerns over a looming supply glut. Russia supports an increase in oil production Sources indicated that Russia was supporting an output increase of 137,000 bpd in order to skip pressures due to the rise in prices, but Saudi Arabia would have opted for double, triple or even quadruple to regain market share rapidly. "OPEC+'s decision to increase production by another 137,000 bpd in November could be manageable in light of rising supply disruptions due to tightening sanctions by the U.S. and Europe against Russia and Iran," ANZ analysts stated in a note on Monday. "Meanwhile, Ukraine continued to intensify its attacks on Russian energy facilities, targeting the Kirishi refinery, one of Russia's largest refineries, with an annual processing capacity exceeding 20 million tonnes," the analysts added. Meanwhile, the finance ministers of the Group of Seven (G7) nations announced last week that they would intensify pressure on Russia by targeting buyers who continue to increase imports of Russian oil and those helping to bypass sanctions, in an effort to curb Moscow’s revenue amid the war in Ukraine. Still, analysts believe that weak demand fundamentals in the fourth quarter will likely limit short-term price increases. Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, noted that in the absence of fresh bullish drivers and with uncertainty clouding the demand outlook, oil prices are expected to remain restrained despite OPEC+ opting for a smaller-than-anticipated output hike. "The reality is that the market is gradually shifting toward a phase of oversupply, with seasonal demand expected to taper off into winter and macro data offering little upside impulse," she added.

The rise in prices tempered some concerns about supply additions; however, analysts expect near-term profits to be limited by a soft demand outlook.&nbsp;

Will car fuel get more expensive? Oil prices surge after OPEC+ announces modest production

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday in Asian trade as investors assessed the potential impact of fresh diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, a development that could reshape sanctions on Russian crude. According to Reuters, Brent crude futures fell 7 cents, or 0.11 per cent, to $66.53 a barrel by 0000 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for September delivery, due to expire on Wednesday, slipped 6 cents, or 0.09 per cent, to $63.36. The more active October WTI contract was down 9 cents, or 0.14 per cent, at $62.61 a barrel. The slight pullback followed a near 1 per cent rise in the previous session.<h2>Trump pushes for trilateral summit</h2>As quoted by Reuters, US President Donald Trump said he had spoken to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin after meeting Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European allies in the White House on Monday. Trump confirmed that plans were underway to organise a trilateral summit between himself, Putin, and Zelenskiy to discuss ending the war.&nbsp;Zelenskiy described his direct talks with Trump as “very good”, adding that security guarantees for Ukraine were on the table, according to Reuters.&nbsp;The push comes as Trump presses for a swift resolution to Europe’s deadliest conflict in eight decades. However, Kyiv and its allies remain concerned that Washington may push for terms that favour Moscow.<h2>Oil market reaction</h2>Analysts said the market is bracing for two possible outcomes. Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, told Reuters that any breakthrough which de-escalates tensions and reduces the threat of sanctions or tariffs could drag oil prices closer to the bank’s fourth-quarter 2025 and first-quarter 2026 average target of $58 per barrel.&nbsp;On the other hand, if Washington decides to tighten pressure on Moscow through broader secondary tariffs against buyers of Russian oil, similar to those already imposed on India, crude could rally back toward the highs seen earlier this month, Melek added.&nbsp;For now, traders remain cautious, with oil markets caught between hopes of diplomacy and the risk of renewed sanctions pressure.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

The pullback followed a near 1% gain in the previous session. The moves came after US President Donald Trump said he had spoken with Vladimir Putin following talks with Volodymyr Zelenskiy, confirming plans for a trilateral summit to discuss ending the conflict.

Oil prices edged lower on Tuesday in Asian trade as investors assessed the potential impact of fresh diplomatic efforts to end the war in Ukraine, a development that could reshape sanctions on Russian crude. According to Reuters, Brent crude futures fell 7 cents, or 0.11 per cent, to $66.53 a barrel by 0000 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude for September delivery, due to expire on Wednesday, slipped 6 cents, or 0.09 per cent, to $63.36. The more active October WTI contract was down 9 cents, or 0.14 per cent, at $62.61 a barrel. The slight pullback followed a near 1 per cent rise in the previous session. Trump pushes for trilateral summit As quoted by Reuters, US President Donald Trump said he had spoken to his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin after meeting Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European allies in the White House on Monday. Trump confirmed that plans were underway to organise a trilateral summit between himself, Putin, and Zelenskiy to discuss ending the war. Zelenskiy described his direct talks with Trump as “very good”, adding that security guarantees for Ukraine were on the table, according to Reuters. The push comes as Trump presses for a swift resolution to Europe’s deadliest conflict in eight decades. However, Kyiv and its allies remain concerned that Washington may push for terms that favour Moscow. Oil market reaction Analysts said the market is bracing for two possible outcomes. Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, told Reuters that any breakthrough which de-escalates tensions and reduces the threat of sanctions or tariffs could drag oil prices closer to the bank’s fourth-quarter 2025 and first-quarter 2026 average target of $58 per barrel. On the other hand, if Washington decides to tighten pressure on Moscow through broader secondary tariffs against buyers of Russian oil, similar to those already imposed on India, crude could rally back toward the highs seen earlier this month, Melek added. For now, traders remain cautious, with oil markets caught between hopes of diplomacy and the risk of renewed sanctions pressure. (With inputs from the agencies)

Oil prices dipped in Asian trade on Tuesday as investors weighed fresh diplomatic momentum to end the war in Ukraine. Brent crude futures slipped 7 cents to $66.53 a barrel, while US WTI for September delivery eased 6 cents to $63.36.

Oil slips as markets weigh Trump’s push for Russia-Ukraine peace talks

Oil prices edged lower on Monday after the much-anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin signalled no immediate escalation in measures against Moscow’s energy exports. As per Reuters, Brent crude futures slipped 26 cents, or 0.39 per cent, to $65.59 a barrel by 0028 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 18 cents, or 0.29 per cent, at $62.62.<h2>Trump-Putin talks shift focus from sanctions to peace deal</h2>The two leaders met in Alaska on Friday and emerged more aligned on pursuing a peace deal rather than prioritising a ceasefire in Ukraine, according to Reuters. The US president’s stance eased investor concerns about the possibility of new sanctions or secondary tariffs that could have further curbed Russian crude flows.&nbsp;Trump is scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders on Monday in a fresh bid to accelerate talks towards ending what has become Europe’s deadliest conflict in 80 years.&nbsp;On Friday, Trump signalled that retaliatory tariffs on countries such as China for continuing purchases of Russian oil were not on the immediate agenda, though he left the door open to such measures “in two or three weeks”. That pause helped calm fears of a near-term disruption in Russian supply.<h2>China and India remain key buyers</h2>China, the world’s biggest crude importer, remains the largest buyer of Russian oil, followed closely by India. According to Reuters, analysts noted that secondary sanctions aimed at Beijing or New Delhi had been the major risk factor for markets in recent weeks.&nbsp;Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital, was quoted by Reuters as saying: “What was primarily in play were the secondary tariffs targeting the key importers of Russian energy, and President Trump has indeed indicated that he will pause pursuing incremental action on this front, at least for China. The status quo remains largely intact for now.”&nbsp;However, Croft cautioned that Moscow is unlikely to retreat from its territorial demands, while Ukraine and some European leaders are expected to resist any land-for-peace agreement.<h2>Markets eye Fed outlook</h2>Beyond geopolitics, investors are also turning their attention to US monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole economic symposium later this week, a closely watched event for signals on the timing of rate cuts.&nbsp;“It’s likely he will remain non-committal and data-dependent, especially with one more payroll and CPI report before the September 17 FOMC meeting,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note, as per Reuters.&nbsp;The combination of steady Russian flows and uncertainty over US monetary policy kept oil markets cautious at the start of the week.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

The Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska shifted focus from sanctions to a possible peace deal in Ukraine, easing fears of fresh curbs on Russian crude flows. Analysts said the delay in punitive measures calmed near-term supply risks, though uncertainties remain over a potential land for peace arrangement.

Oil prices edged lower on Monday after the much-anticipated meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin signalled no immediate escalation in measures against Moscow’s energy exports. As per Reuters, Brent crude futures slipped 26 cents, or 0.39 per cent, to $65.59 a barrel by 0028 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was down 18 cents, or 0.29 per cent, at $62.62. Trump-Putin talks shift focus from sanctions to peace deal The two leaders met in Alaska on Friday and emerged more aligned on pursuing a peace deal rather than prioritising a ceasefire in Ukraine, according to Reuters. The US president’s stance eased investor concerns about the possibility of new sanctions or secondary tariffs that could have further curbed Russian crude flows. Trump is scheduled to meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and European leaders on Monday in a fresh bid to accelerate talks towards ending what has become Europe’s deadliest conflict in 80 years. On Friday, Trump signalled that retaliatory tariffs on countries such as China for continuing purchases of Russian oil were not on the immediate agenda, though he left the door open to such measures “in two or three weeks”. That pause helped calm fears of a near-term disruption in Russian supply. China and India remain key buyers China, the world’s biggest crude importer, remains the largest buyer of Russian oil, followed closely by India. According to Reuters, analysts noted that secondary sanctions aimed at Beijing or New Delhi had been the major risk factor for markets in recent weeks. Helima Croft, an analyst at RBC Capital, was quoted by Reuters as saying: “What was primarily in play were the secondary tariffs targeting the key importers of Russian energy, and President Trump has indeed indicated that he will pause pursuing incremental action on this front, at least for China. The status quo remains largely intact for now.” However, Croft cautioned that Moscow is unlikely to retreat from its territorial demands, while Ukraine and some European leaders are expected to resist any land-for-peace agreement. Markets eye Fed outlook Beyond geopolitics, investors are also turning their attention to US monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole economic symposium later this week, a closely watched event for signals on the timing of rate cuts. “It’s likely he will remain non-committal and data-dependent, especially with one more payroll and CPI report before the September 17 FOMC meeting,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note, as per Reuters. The combination of steady Russian flows and uncertainty over US monetary policy kept oil markets cautious at the start of the week. (With inputs from the agencies)

Oil prices slipped on Monday as US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin signalled no immediate escalation of sanctions on Moscow’s energy exports. Brent crude fell 26 cents to $65.59 a barrel, while WTI dropped 18 cents to $62.62.

Oil slips as Trump-Putin meeting cools fears of Russian supply disruption

Global oil prices are expected to open on a muted note this week after US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska, where the two leaders discussed a direct peace deal for Ukraine. As per Reuters, Trump said that both sides had agreed to pursue a “fully-fledged peace deal” rather than a temporary ceasefire. This marks a shift from the earlier US-backed position, which aligned with Ukraine and its European allies in seeking an interim ceasefire first.<h2>Tariffs on hold, Russian oil flows undisturbed</h2>In a significant policy move, Trump also indicated that he would hold off imposing tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, such as China. The US president had previously threatened to sanction Moscow directly and impose secondary sanctions on major buyers like China and India if no progress was made on ending the Ukraine war.&nbsp;Analysts say this stance could ease concerns of immediate disruption to Russian oil exports. Ajay Parmar, an analyst at ICIS, told Reuters that uninterrupted Russian supply should be bearish for prices. “It is worth noting that we think the impact of this will be minimal though and prices will likely see only a small dip in the very near term as a result of this news,” Parmar added.<h2>Markets waiting for clarity</h2>Attention now turns to Washington, where Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday. According to a Reuters source, European leaders have also been invited to join the talks.Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said market watchers will be closely tracking European reactions. “For now, Russian supply disruption risks will remain contained,” he noted.<h2>Oil prices before the meeting</h2>Before the Alaska talks, Brent crude settled at $65.85 a barrel on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate closed at $62.80 – both nearly $1 lower. Analysts say traders are waiting for a clearer outcome from the negotiations before making any big moves.&nbsp;Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, told Reuters that until a deal emerges, prices will likely stay stuck in a narrow range. “What we do know is that the threat of immediate sanctions on Russia, or secondary sanctions on other countries is put on hold for now, which would be bearish,” he said.<h2>Russia’s redirected oil flows</h2>Since the imposition of Western sanctions – including a seaborne oil embargo and price caps on Russian crude – Moscow has shifted its oil exports towards Asia, particularly China and India. The Alaska meeting outcome suggests this redirection will continue unhindered for now.&nbsp;With supply risks contained and sanctions pressure temporarily eased, oil markets are expected to lean bearish in the near term. But traders remain cautious, with much depending on the outcome of Trump’s upcoming meeting with Zelenskiy and Europe’s response to the new US approach.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

Following the August 15 Alaska talks, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin agreed to pursue a direct Ukraine peace deal, shifting away from earlier ceasefire-first proposals. Trump also held off imposing tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, easing concerns of immediate supply disruption.

Global oil prices are expected to open on a muted note this week after US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Alaska, where the two leaders discussed a direct peace deal for Ukraine. As per Reuters, Trump said that both sides had agreed to pursue a “fully-fledged peace deal” rather than a temporary ceasefire. This marks a shift from the earlier US-backed position, which aligned with Ukraine and its European allies in seeking an interim ceasefire first. Tariffs on hold, Russian oil flows undisturbed In a significant policy move, Trump also indicated that he would hold off imposing tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, such as China. The US president had previously threatened to sanction Moscow directly and impose secondary sanctions on major buyers like China and India if no progress was made on ending the Ukraine war. Analysts say this stance could ease concerns of immediate disruption to Russian oil exports. Ajay Parmar, an analyst at ICIS, told Reuters that uninterrupted Russian supply should be bearish for prices. “It is worth noting that we think the impact of this will be minimal though and prices will likely see only a small dip in the very near term as a result of this news,” Parmar added. Markets waiting for clarity Attention now turns to Washington, where Trump will meet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy on Monday. According to a Reuters source, European leaders have also been invited to join the talks. Giovanni Staunovo, analyst at UBS, said market watchers will be closely tracking European reactions. “For now, Russian supply disruption risks will remain contained,” he noted. Oil prices before the meeting Before the Alaska talks, Brent crude settled at $65.85 a barrel on Friday, while US West Texas Intermediate closed at $62.80 – both nearly $1 lower. Analysts say traders are waiting for a clearer outcome from the negotiations before making any big moves. Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, told Reuters that until a deal emerges, prices will likely stay stuck in a narrow range. “What we do know is that the threat of immediate sanctions on Russia, or secondary sanctions on other countries is put on hold for now, which would be bearish,” he said. Russia’s redirected oil flows Since the imposition of Western sanctions – including a seaborne oil embargo and price caps on Russian crude – Moscow has shifted its oil exports towards Asia, particularly China and India. The Alaska meeting outcome suggests this redirection will continue unhindered for now. With supply risks contained and sanctions pressure temporarily eased, oil markets are expected to lean bearish in the near term. But traders remain cautious, with much depending on the outcome of Trump’s upcoming meeting with Zelenskiy and Europe’s response to the new US approach. (With inputs from the agencies)

Analysts say uninterrupted Russian exports keep prices tilted bearish in the short term, though Brent and WTI remain range-bound as traders await Trump’s upcoming meeting with Zelenskiy and Europe’s response.&nbsp;

Oil prices set for muted open after Trump-Putin Alaska meeting

Global equities traded flat but hovered near record highs on Friday as US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held high-stakes talks in Alaska over the war in Ukraine. According to Reuters, investors largely stayed on the sidelines as the outcome of the meeting could shape the prospects of a ceasefire in Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two.&nbsp;On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly touched an intraday record, becoming the last of the major US indexes to set a new peak this week. By the close, the Dow was up 0.08 per cent, while the S&amp;P 500 slipped 0.29 per cent and the Nasdaq fell 0.40 per cent, dragged down by technology, financials, industrials and utilities.&nbsp;Talley Leger, chief market strategist at The Wealth Consulting Group in New Jersey, told Reuters that “this market continues to move higher and the story is just earnings and margins,” adding that stronger services inflation was boosting profit margins in the US economy. Fresh data showed US retail sales rose 0.5 per cent in July from the previous month, signalling resilience in consumer demand even as producer price data earlier in the week reignited inflation concerns.<h2>Europe and Asia stay cautious</h2>In Europe, the STOXX 600 index touched a near five-month high before closing flat at 0.06 per cent. Investors drew support from a largely upbeat earnings season but remained cautious ahead of the geopolitical talks.&nbsp;The MSCI All Country World Index also steadied, trading at 951.70, just shy of Wednesday’s record 954.21.&nbsp;Japan posted stronger-than-expected GDP growth, with the economy expanding at an annualised 1.0 per cent in the April–June quarter, as per Reuters.<h2>Bonds and currencies react</h2>US Treasury yields edged higher as traders reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. The two-year note yield rose to 3.751 per cent, while the benchmark 10-year yield climbed to 4.32 per cent.&nbsp;In currency markets, the dollar weakened 0.38 per cent against the Japanese yen to 146.72, slipped 0.15 per cent against the Swiss franc to 0.806, while the euro gained 0.48 per cent to $1.1702. The dollar index was last down 0.34 per cent at 97.85.<h2>Oil and gold diverge</h2>Energy markets saw a sell-off, with Brent crude down 1.5 per cent at $66.85 a barrel and US crude falling 1.8 per cent to $62.80. Analysts told Reuters that a breakthrough in Trump-Putin talks could affect future commodity prices.&nbsp;Spot gold edged up 0.09 per cent to $3,338.65 an ounce, while US gold futures settled almost flat at $3,382.60.<h2>Bitcoin cools after record run</h2>Meanwhile, cryptocurrency markets stabilised after bitcoin briefly hit a record $124,480.82 on Thursday. By Friday, it had eased 0.78 per cent to $117,033.52, according to Reuters.<h2>Stakes high in Alaska</h2>The Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska was closely watched by investors. Trump has suggested that a second summit involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy could follow if talks with Putin progress.&nbsp;Ukraine’s government bonds have stalled at a distressed 55 cents on the dollar, reflecting investor caution. Shaniel Ramjee, co-head of multi-asset at Pictet Asset Management, told Reuters that markets have learnt “not to expect too much from these negotiations,” noting that Europeans and Zelenskiy must eventually be part of any final settlement.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)

European indices remained cautious, with the STOXX 600 closing nearly flat. US retail sales increased 0.5% in July, reflecting consumer resilience. Treasury yields rose and the dollar weakened against several currencies.

Global equities traded flat but hovered near record highs on Friday as US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held high-stakes talks in Alaska over the war in Ukraine. According to Reuters, investors largely stayed on the sidelines as the outcome of the meeting could shape the prospects of a ceasefire in Europe’s deadliest conflict since World War Two. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly touched an intraday record, becoming the last of the major US indexes to set a new peak this week. By the close, the Dow was up 0.08 per cent, while the S&P 500 slipped 0.29 per cent and the Nasdaq fell 0.40 per cent, dragged down by technology, financials, industrials and utilities. Talley Leger, chief market strategist at The Wealth Consulting Group in New Jersey, told Reuters that “this market continues to move higher and the story is just earnings and margins,” adding that stronger services inflation was boosting profit margins in the US economy. Fresh data showed US retail sales rose 0.5 per cent in July from the previous month, signalling resilience in consumer demand even as producer price data earlier in the week reignited inflation concerns. Europe and Asia stay cautious In Europe, the STOXX 600 index touched a near five-month high before closing flat at 0.06 per cent. Investors drew support from a largely upbeat earnings season but remained cautious ahead of the geopolitical talks. The MSCI All Country World Index also steadied, trading at 951.70, just shy of Wednesday’s record 954.21. Japan posted stronger-than-expected GDP growth, with the economy expanding at an annualised 1.0 per cent in the April–June quarter, as per Reuters. Bonds and currencies react US Treasury yields edged higher as traders reassessed the outlook for Federal Reserve policy. The two-year note yield rose to 3.751 per cent, while the benchmark 10-year yield climbed to 4.32 per cent. In currency markets, the dollar weakened 0.38 per cent against the Japanese yen to 146.72, slipped 0.15 per cent against the Swiss franc to 0.806, while the euro gained 0.48 per cent to $1.1702. The dollar index was last down 0.34 per cent at 97.85. Oil and gold diverge Energy markets saw a sell-off, with Brent crude down 1.5 per cent at $66.85 a barrel and US crude falling 1.8 per cent to $62.80. Analysts told Reuters that a breakthrough in Trump-Putin talks could affect future commodity prices. Spot gold edged up 0.09 per cent to $3,338.65 an ounce, while US gold futures settled almost flat at $3,382.60. Bitcoin cools after record run Meanwhile, cryptocurrency markets stabilised after bitcoin briefly hit a record $124,480.82 on Thursday. By Friday, it had eased 0.78 per cent to $117,033.52, according to Reuters. Stakes high in Alaska The Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska was closely watched by investors. Trump has suggested that a second summit involving Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy could follow if talks with Putin progress. Ukraine’s government bonds have stalled at a distressed 55 cents on the dollar, reflecting investor caution. Shaniel Ramjee, co-head of multi-asset at Pictet Asset Management, told Reuters that markets have learnt “not to expect too much from these negotiations,” noting that Europeans and Zelenskiy must eventually be part of any final settlement. (With inputs from the agencies)

Global equities remained flat near record highs amid high-stakes talks between US President Trump and Russian President Putin over Ukraine. Wall Street saw the Dow reach an intraday record, gaining 0.08%, while the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq fell slightly.

World stocks steady, oil slides as Trump and Putin meet in Alaska

Oil prices were largely unchanged on Friday after a choppy trading week, with the market’s attention firmly fixed on the high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. According to Bloomberg, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovered near $64 a barrel after a 2.1 per cent surge in the previous session erased early-week losses. Brent crude ended Thursday’s session 1.8 per cent higher at $66.84 in light trading. The week’s moves leave oil almost flat overall.&nbsp;Traders are eyeing the summit for any sign of an easing of US sanctions on Russian energy. Such a shift could unleash more Russian barrels into the market, adding pressure to a sector already grappling with slowing demand from Trump’s trade policies and a faster-than-expected return of OPEC+ supply. Oil prices have already fallen around 10 per cent this year, with forecasts pointing to a potential record surplus in 2026.<h2>Geopolitical tensions add volatility</h2>The diplomatic backdrop is complex. Putin has mounted a charm offensive ahead of the Alaska talks, while Trump has publicly downplayed expectations for a breakthrough. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have intensified strikes on Russian energy assets. In the early hours of Thursday, Ukrainian drones targeted Lukoil PJSC’s major refinery in Volgograd, a facility critical to Russia’s oil processing capacity, Bloomberg reported.<h2>Prices at a glance</h2>At 7:32 a.m. in Singapore, WTI for September delivery slipped 0.1 per cent to $63.90 a barrel. Brent for October settlement closed at $66.84 on Thursday, maintaining gains from the previous session.&nbsp;As markets await signals from the Trump-Putin summit, oil traders remain caught between potential diplomatic shifts and persistent geopolitical risks, a balance that could define crude’s next major move.<h2>Why the Trump–Putin talks matter for oil?</h2>An easing of US sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia could reportedly release more supply into the market, a development that traders are watching closely. Any such move could add to an already bearish supply picture, as global output is ramping up despite concerns about slowing demand due to US tariff pressures on the world economy.&nbsp;The US Department of Energy (DOE), as reported by Bloomberg, has revised up its 2025 global oversupply forecast to 1.7 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its own estimates later on Wednesday. OPEC, meanwhile, has kept its more bullish view, predicting a tighter oil market next year than previously projected.<h2>Possible price paths after the Trump–Putin meeting</h2>If Trump and Putin agree on steps to lift or soften sanctions on Russian crude, more supply could flow into the global market. According to Bloomberg, this could push Brent prices back toward the low $60s.&nbsp;If there is no major breakthrough, prices may stay range-bound. As per Reuters analysts, Brent could hold between $63 and $66 as traders continue to price in the current sanctions regime.&nbsp;If fresh sanctions are imposed, further restricting Russian crude exports, the resulting supply squeeze could push Brent above $70 per barrel, especially if OPEC+ output remains steady, according to&nbsp;Reuters.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)

Traders anticipate potential easing of US sanctions on Russian energy, which could boost supply amid concerns over slowing demand and rising OPEC+ output. Geopolitical tensions persist, with Ukrainian strikes on Russian assets adding volatility.

Oil prices were largely unchanged on Friday after a choppy trading week, with the market’s attention firmly fixed on the high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska. According to Bloomberg, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude hovered near $64 a barrel after a 2.1 per cent surge in the previous session erased early-week losses. Brent crude ended Thursday’s session 1.8 per cent higher at $66.84 in light trading. The week’s moves leave oil almost flat overall. Traders are eyeing the summit for any sign of an easing of US sanctions on Russian energy. Such a shift could unleash more Russian barrels into the market, adding pressure to a sector already grappling with slowing demand from Trump’s trade policies and a faster-than-expected return of OPEC+ supply. Oil prices have already fallen around 10 per cent this year, with forecasts pointing to a potential record surplus in 2026. Geopolitical tensions add volatility The diplomatic backdrop is complex. Putin has mounted a charm offensive ahead of the Alaska talks, while Trump has publicly downplayed expectations for a breakthrough. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces have intensified strikes on Russian energy assets. In the early hours of Thursday, Ukrainian drones targeted Lukoil PJSC’s major refinery in Volgograd, a facility critical to Russia’s oil processing capacity, Bloomberg reported. Prices at a glance At 7:32 a.m. in Singapore, WTI for September delivery slipped 0.1 per cent to $63.90 a barrel. Brent for October settlement closed at $66.84 on Thursday, maintaining gains from the previous session. As markets await signals from the Trump-Putin summit, oil traders remain caught between potential diplomatic shifts and persistent geopolitical risks, a balance that could define crude’s next major move. Why the Trump–Putin talks matter for oil? An easing of US sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia could reportedly release more supply into the market, a development that traders are watching closely. Any such move could add to an already bearish supply picture, as global output is ramping up despite concerns about slowing demand due to US tariff pressures on the world economy. The US Department of Energy (DOE), as reported by Bloomberg, has revised up its 2025 global oversupply forecast to 1.7 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its own estimates later on Wednesday. OPEC, meanwhile, has kept its more bullish view, predicting a tighter oil market next year than previously projected. Possible price paths after the Trump–Putin meeting If Trump and Putin agree on steps to lift or soften sanctions on Russian crude, more supply could flow into the global market. According to Bloomberg, this could push Brent prices back toward the low $60s. If there is no major breakthrough, prices may stay range-bound. As per Reuters analysts, Brent could hold between $63 and $66 as traders continue to price in the current sanctions regime. If fresh sanctions are imposed, further restricting Russian crude exports, the resulting supply squeeze could push Brent above $70 per barrel, especially if OPEC+ output remains steady, according to Reuters. (With inputs from the agencies)

Oil prices remained stable on Friday, focusing on the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska. WTI crude was around $64 a barrel after a previous 2.1% increase, while Brent closed at $66.84.

Oil holds steady as Trump-Putin Alaska summit takes centre stage

Oil prices ticked higher on Thursday, regaining some ground after sliding to two-month lows in the previous session. As per Reuters, the rebound comes ahead of a high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which has injected fresh geopolitical risk premiums into the market.&nbsp;At 0057 GMT, Brent crude futures rose 28 cents, or 0.43 per cent, to $65.91 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 23 cents, or 0.37 per cent, to $62.89. Both benchmarks had plunged to their weakest levels since June after bearish supply forecasts from the US government and the International Energy Agency (IEA).&nbsp;The Trump–Putin meeting, set for Friday in Alaska, has emerged as a focal point for traders. On Wednesday, Trump warned of “severe consequences” if Putin failed to agree to a peace settlement in Ukraine. While he did not specify the measures, he has previously threatened fresh economic sanctions should talks prove fruitless.<h2>Geopolitics and Fed policy provide support</h2>According to Rystad Energy, the uncertainty surrounding the US–Russia peace talks is fuelling a bullish risk premium, as Russian oil buyers could face greater economic pressure if tensions escalate. Adding to the upside, markets are now pricing in near certainty that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. As quoted by Reuters, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.9 per cent probability of a quarter-point cut, with some investors expecting an aggressive half-point move given recent weak US jobs data. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also signalled that deeper cuts are possible.&nbsp;A weaker dollar, hovering near multi-week lows against the euro and sterling has further supported oil, making crude cheaper for holders of other currencies. Lower borrowing costs are generally seen as a boost for energy demand.<h2>Inventory build and supply forecasts cap gains</h2>However, gains in oil prices were tempered by a surprise build in US crude inventories. The US Energy Information Administration reported an increase of 3 million barrels for the week ended August 8, against expectations in a Reuters poll for a 275,000-barrel draw.&nbsp;Meanwhile, the IEA has forecast that global oil supply in 2025 and 2026 will grow faster than previously anticipated. As per Reuters, the agency cited higher production from OPEC+ and robust output from non-OPEC producers as key factors.&nbsp;With geopolitical tensions, central bank policy shifts, and supply-demand forecasts all in play, oil markets are expected to remain volatile heading into the Trump–Putin meeting. (With inputs from the agencies)

Brent and WTI crude gained on Thursday after recent sharp declines, buoyed by geopolitical tensions ahead of US and Russia peace talks in Alaska and expectations of a September US Fed rate cut. Markets remain volatile amid uncertainty over the outcome of the Trump–Putin meeting.

Oil prices ticked higher on Thursday, regaining some ground after sliding to two-month lows in the previous session. As per Reuters, the rebound comes ahead of a high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which has injected fresh geopolitical risk premiums into the market. At 0057 GMT, Brent crude futures rose 28 cents, or 0.43 per cent, to $65.91 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 23 cents, or 0.37 per cent, to $62.89. Both benchmarks had plunged to their weakest levels since June after bearish supply forecasts from the US government and the International Energy Agency (IEA). The Trump–Putin meeting, set for Friday in Alaska, has emerged as a focal point for traders. On Wednesday, Trump warned of “severe consequences” if Putin failed to agree to a peace settlement in Ukraine. While he did not specify the measures, he has previously threatened fresh economic sanctions should talks prove fruitless. Geopolitics and Fed policy provide support According to Rystad Energy, the uncertainty surrounding the US–Russia peace talks is fuelling a bullish risk premium, as Russian oil buyers could face greater economic pressure if tensions escalate. Adding to the upside, markets are now pricing in near certainty that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September. As quoted by Reuters, the CME FedWatch tool shows a 99.9 per cent probability of a quarter-point cut, with some investors expecting an aggressive half-point move given recent weak US jobs data. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has also signalled that deeper cuts are possible. A weaker dollar, hovering near multi-week lows against the euro and sterling has further supported oil, making crude cheaper for holders of other currencies. Lower borrowing costs are generally seen as a boost for energy demand. Inventory build and supply forecasts cap gains However, gains in oil prices were tempered by a surprise build in US crude inventories. The US Energy Information Administration reported an increase of 3 million barrels for the week ended August 8, against expectations in a Reuters poll for a 275,000-barrel draw. Meanwhile, the IEA has forecast that global oil supply in 2025 and 2026 will grow faster than previously anticipated. As per Reuters, the agency cited higher production from OPEC+ and robust output from non-OPEC producers as key factors. With geopolitical tensions, central bank policy shifts, and supply-demand forecasts all in play, oil markets are expected to remain volatile heading into the Trump–Putin meeting. (With inputs from the agencies)

Oil prices rebounded from two-month lows as traders weighed geopolitical risks from the upcoming Trump–Putin meeting, potential US rate cuts, and mixed supply signals.

Oil prices recover from two-month lows ahead of Trump–Putin talks

As traders look ahead to a high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, a diplomatic encounter that could reshape the outlook for sanctions on Russian crude, oil markets were steady. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $63 a barrel after slipping 1.2 per cent in the previous session, while Brent closed just below $66, according to Bloomberg. The drop came in thin trading, with investors waiting for geopolitical cues from the upcoming Alaska summit, where Ukraine’s conflict is expected to dominate the agenda.<h2>Why the Trump–Putin talks matter for oil?</h2>An easing of US sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia could reportedly release more supply into the market, a development that traders are watching closely. Any such move could add to an already bearish supply picture, as global output is ramping up despite concerns about slowing demand due to US tariff pressures on the world economy.&nbsp;The US Department of Energy (DOE), as reported by Bloomberg, has revised up its 2025 global oversupply forecast to 1.7 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its own estimates later on Wednesday. OPEC, meanwhile, has kept its more bullish view, predicting a tighter oil market next year than previously projected.<h2>US stockpiles rise, demand season nears its end</h2>Whereas, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), cited by Reuters, showed US crude inventories rising by 1.52 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks fell, but distillate inventories used for diesel and heating oil gained slightly. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) to show a smaller crude drawdown of about 300,000 barrels in its official data later Wednesday, suggesting that the summer driving season may have already peaked. This seasonal demand window usually runs from Memorial Day in late May to Labour Day in early September.&nbsp;According to Reuters, the EIA projects US crude output will hit a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, thanks to higher well productivity. However, it expects a decline in 2026 as lower oil prices prompt reduced drilling. OPEC’s latest monthly report, as quoted by Reuters, raises its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 100,000 bpd from its previous projection, while keeping its 2025 demand estimate unchanged.&nbsp;The White House, as reported by Reuters, has already signalled that a quick Ukraine ceasefire is unlikely, meaning sanctions relief for Russia may not be imminent. Still, ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes told Reuters that traders appear less convinced about the possibility of fresh sanctions, even though President Trump has downplayed expectations of a breakthrough.<h2>Oil market snapshot</h2>As per Reuters, Brent crude, the global benchmark, inched up to $66.15 a barrel, a modest gain of three cents in early trade. The move comes after a 0.8 per cent drop in the previous session, reflecting market hesitation ahead of the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska. Whereas, US WTI crude slipped slightly by three cents to $63.14 a barrel, as per Reuters. While the change was marginal, it followed a sharper 1.2 per cent decline a day earlier. Oversupply concerns and a build-up in domestic stockpiles are keeping prices under pressure.&nbsp;API figures, as cited by Reuters, show US crude inventories rising by 1.52 million barrels last week. This suggests refiners may be cutting back runs as the summer demand season winds down. Gasoline stocks fell, but distillate inventories posted a small gain. Bloomberg reports that the DOE now expects a much larger global surplus in 2025, 1.7 million barrels per day, compared to earlier projections. Without production cuts from OPEC+, this could weigh heavily on prices.&nbsp;Reuters cites the EIA’s projection that US crude production will reach a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, boosted by well productivity gains, before easing in 2026. OPEC’s latest monthly report, as quoted by Reuters, raises its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day, driven by Asia and emerging markets, while demand growth in mature economies slows.

<figure class="table"><table><tbody><tr><td>Indicator</td><td>Latest Level</td><td>Change from Previous Session</td></tr><tr><td>Brent crude</td><td>$66.15/bbl</td><td>+$0.03 (+0.05%)</td></tr><tr><td>WTI crude</td><td>$63.14/bbl</td><td>-$0.03 (-0.05%)</td></tr><tr><td>US crude stocks</td><td>+1.52 million barrels</td><td>Week ended Aug 8</td></tr><tr><td>DOE oversupply forecast (2025)</td><td>1.7 million bpd</td><td>Up from earlier estimate</td></tr><tr><td>US crude output forecast (2025)</td><td>13.41 million bpd</td><td>Record high</td></tr><tr><td>OPEC global demand forecast (2026)</td><td>+1.38 million bpd</td><td>+100,000 bpd vs earlier</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>(Source: Reuters, Bloomberg)&nbsp;

<h2>Possible price paths after the Trump–Putin meeting</h2>If Trump and Putin agree on steps to lift or soften sanctions on Russian crude, more supply could flow into the global market. According to Bloomberg, this could push Brent prices back toward the low $60s. If there is no major breakthrough, prices may stay range-bound. As per Reuters analysts, Brent could hold between $63 and $66 as traders continue to price in the current sanctions regime. If fresh sanctions are imposed, further restricting Russian crude exports, the resulting supply squeeze could push Brent above $70 per barrel, especially if OPEC+ output remains steady, according to&nbsp;Reuters. (With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp; &nbsp;

Traders are closely monitoring an imminent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, which could influence sanctions on Russian crude. US crude inventories grew by 1.52 million barrels, hinting at reduced refinery activity as the summer season ends. 

As traders look ahead to a high-stakes meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday, a diplomatic encounter that could reshape the outlook for sanctions on Russian crude, oil markets were steady. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded near $63 a barrel after slipping 1.2 per cent in the previous session, while Brent closed just below $66, according to Bloomberg. The drop came in thin trading, with investors waiting for geopolitical cues from the upcoming Alaska summit, where Ukraine’s conflict is expected to dominate the agenda. Why the Trump–Putin talks matter for oil? An easing of US sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia could reportedly release more supply into the market, a development that traders are watching closely. Any such move could add to an already bearish supply picture, as global output is ramping up despite concerns about slowing demand due to US tariff pressures on the world economy. The US Department of Energy (DOE), as reported by Bloomberg, has revised up its 2025 global oversupply forecast to 1.7 million barrels per day. The International Energy Agency (IEA) will release its own estimates later on Wednesday. OPEC, meanwhile, has kept its more bullish view, predicting a tighter oil market next year than previously projected. US stockpiles rise, demand season nears its end Whereas, data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), cited by Reuters, showed US crude inventories rising by 1.52 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks fell, but distillate inventories used for diesel and heating oil gained slightly. Analysts polled by Reuters expect the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) to show a smaller crude drawdown of about 300,000 barrels in its official data later Wednesday, suggesting that the summer driving season may have already peaked. This seasonal demand window usually runs from Memorial Day in late May to Labour Day in early September. According to Reuters, the EIA projects US crude output will hit a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, thanks to higher well productivity. However, it expects a decline in 2026 as lower oil prices prompt reduced drilling. OPEC’s latest monthly report, as quoted by Reuters, raises its 2026 global demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day, an increase of 100,000 bpd from its previous projection, while keeping its 2025 demand estimate unchanged. The White House, as reported by Reuters, has already signalled that a quick Ukraine ceasefire is unlikely, meaning sanctions relief for Russia may not be imminent. Still, ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes told Reuters that traders appear less convinced about the possibility of fresh sanctions, even though President Trump has downplayed expectations of a breakthrough. Oil market snapshot As per Reuters, Brent crude, the global benchmark, inched up to $66.15 a barrel, a modest gain of three cents in early trade. The move comes after a 0.8 per cent drop in the previous session, reflecting market hesitation ahead of the Trump–Putin meeting in Alaska. Whereas, US WTI crude slipped slightly by three cents to $63.14 a barrel, as per Reuters. While the change was marginal, it followed a sharper 1.2 per cent decline a day earlier. Oversupply concerns and a build-up in domestic stockpiles are keeping prices under pressure. API figures, as cited by Reuters, show US crude inventories rising by 1.52 million barrels last week. This suggests refiners may be cutting back runs as the summer demand season winds down. Gasoline stocks fell, but distillate inventories posted a small gain. Bloomberg reports that the DOE now expects a much larger global surplus in 2025, 1.7 million barrels per day, compared to earlier projections. Without production cuts from OPEC+, this could weigh heavily on prices. Reuters cites the EIA’s projection that US crude production will reach a record 13.41 million barrels per day in 2025, boosted by well productivity gains, before easing in 2026. OPEC’s latest monthly report, as quoted by Reuters, raises its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.38 million barrels per day, driven by Asia and emerging markets, while demand growth in mature economies slows.

Oil prices remained stable, with WTI near $63 and Brent just under $66. An easing of sanctions could increase supply, impacting an already bearish outlook as global production rises amid dwindling demand.

Oil steadies as Trump–Putin meeting looms over Ukraine conflict and sanctions

Oil prices saw modest gains on August 12 as optimism over a trade truce between the United States and China helped stabilise market sentiment, easing fears of a prolonged economic slowdown. Brent crude futures rose by 26 cents, or 0.39 per cent, to $66.89 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 22 cents, or 0.34 per cent, to $64.18 a barrel. The market was buoyed by news that US President Donald Trump had extended the tariff truce with China by another 90 days, postponing the implementation of higher tariffs on Chinese goods. This move calmed concerns that a renewed trade war could disrupt global economic growth and, in turn, dampen oil demand. Retailers in the US were particularly relieved as the decision allows for smoother preparations for the upcoming holiday season.<h2>US-Russia talks over Ukraine and potential sanctions</h2>Another focal point for the oil market this week is the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for Friday in Alaska. The summit is expected to center around the ongoing war in Ukraine, with the potential for a ceasefire deal. The outcome of the talks could have significant implications for the oil market, especially as Washington continues to pressure major Russian oil buyers such as China and India.Trump had previously threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russia’s oil customers if the conflict persists. Any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could reduce the risk of disruptions to Russian oil exports, which have been a major concern for traders since the war’s onset. A de-escalation in the conflict could lead to a normalisation of oil supplies from Russia, potentially stabilising global crude markets.<h2>US inflation data and future interest rate cuts</h2>Investors are also closely watching the release of US inflation data later today, which could provide hints on the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. Any indication that the Fed might cut rates in the near future would likely support crude prices, as lower interest rates tend to boost demand for oil. In the broader market, oil prices have been under pressure in recent months, with crude prices falling more than 10 per cent this year due to concerns about global oversupply and slowing economic growth. Traders are hoping that geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Russia talks, could offer some relief to the market in the near term.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

Brent crude futures rose by 26 cents, or 0.39 per cent, to $66.89 per barrel, while US WTI crude climbed 22 cents, or 0.34 per cent, to $64.18 a barrel. The market was buoyed by news that US President Donald Trump had extended the tariff truce with China by another 90 days. 

Oil prices saw modest gains on August 12 as optimism over a trade truce between the United States and China helped stabilise market sentiment, easing fears of a prolonged economic slowdown. Brent crude futures rose by 26 cents, or 0.39 per cent, to $66.89 per barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 22 cents, or 0.34 per cent, to $64.18 a barrel. The market was buoyed by news that US President Donald Trump had extended the tariff truce with China by another 90 days, postponing the implementation of higher tariffs on Chinese goods. This move calmed concerns that a renewed trade war could disrupt global economic growth and, in turn, dampen oil demand. Retailers in the US were particularly relieved as the decision allows for smoother preparations for the upcoming holiday season. US-Russia talks over Ukraine and potential sanctions Another focal point for the oil market this week is the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, scheduled for Friday in Alaska. The summit is expected to center around the ongoing war in Ukraine, with the potential for a ceasefire deal. The outcome of the talks could have significant implications for the oil market, especially as Washington continues to pressure major Russian oil buyers such as China and India. Trump had previously threatened to impose secondary sanctions on Russia’s oil customers if the conflict persists. Any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could reduce the risk of disruptions to Russian oil exports, which have been a major concern for traders since the war’s onset. A de-escalation in the conflict could lead to a normalisation of oil supplies from Russia, potentially stabilising global crude markets. US inflation data and future interest rate cuts Investors are also closely watching the release of US inflation data later today, which could provide hints on the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions. Any indication that the Fed might cut rates in the near future would likely support crude prices, as lower interest rates tend to boost demand for oil. In the broader market, oil prices have been under pressure in recent months, with crude prices falling more than 10 per cent this year due to concerns about global oversupply and slowing economic growth. Traders are hoping that geopolitical developments, particularly the US-Russia talks, could offer some relief to the market in the near term. (With inputs from agencies)

Brent crude futures rose by 26 cents, or 0.39 per cent, to $66.89 per barrel, while US WTI crude climbed 22 cents, or 0.34 per cent, to $64.18 a barrel. The market was buoyed by news that US President Donald Trump had extended the tariff truce with China by another 90 days.&nbsp;

Oil prices stabilise amid US-China trade truce extension and awaited US-Russia talks

Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Monday, extending last week’s sharp losses, as global markets weighed higher US tariffs, an OPEC output increase, and rising hopes for a Ukraine ceasefire deal. Brent crude futures slipped 52 cents, or 0.78 per cent, to $66.07 a barrel by 0041 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 58 cents to $63.30. The decline comes after Brent lost 4.4 per cent and WTI shed 5.1 per cent over the week ended Friday, dragged lower by a gloomy economic outlook, as per Reuters.<h2>Ceasefire hopes and sanctions impact</h2>According to Reuters, expectations have grown that sanctions limiting the supply of Russian oil to global markets could soon be eased. This follows US President Donald Trump’s announcement on Friday that he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war.&nbsp;Trump has warned Moscow that if no peace deal is reached, its oil buyers could face secondary sanctions. At the same time, Washington is pressing India to scale back Russian crude purchases. The White House has also indicated that penalties on Russia could be tightened if talks fail.<h2>Tariffs and inflation risks weigh on demand</h2>The market downturn has also been fuelled by Trump’s new import tariffs, which took effect on Thursday. These duties target dozens of countries and are expected to disrupt supply chains, push up inflation, and slow economic activity.&nbsp;In parallel, OPEC’s latest output hike has added pressure to crude prices, with the combination of higher supply and weaker demand expectations reinforcing the bearish sentiment.<h2>Key US inflation data ahead</h2>Traders are now focused on US inflation figures due Tuesday, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. As quoted by Reuters, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted that a weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading would boost expectations for earlier and deeper Fed rate cuts, potentially stimulating economic activity and supporting oil demand. Conversely, a hotter print could raise stagflation fears and delay policy easing.&nbsp;With geopolitical talks and economic data converging this week, oil prices are expected to remain volatile as markets balance hopes of a Ukraine peace pact against the drag from tariffs and output increases.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)

Market sentiment remains bearish due to geopolitical tensions, economic forecasts, and upcoming US inflation data, which are influencing demand.

Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Monday, extending last week’s sharp losses, as global markets weighed higher US tariffs, an OPEC output increase, and rising hopes for a Ukraine ceasefire deal. Brent crude futures slipped 52 cents, or 0.78 per cent, to $66.07 a barrel by 0041 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 58 cents to $63.30. The decline comes after Brent lost 4.4 per cent and WTI shed 5.1 per cent over the week ended Friday, dragged lower by a gloomy economic outlook, as per Reuters. Ceasefire hopes and sanctions impact According to Reuters, expectations have grown that sanctions limiting the supply of Russian oil to global markets could soon be eased. This follows US President Donald Trump’s announcement on Friday that he will meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska on August 15 to negotiate an end to the Ukraine war. Trump has warned Moscow that if no peace deal is reached, its oil buyers could face secondary sanctions. At the same time, Washington is pressing India to scale back Russian crude purchases. The White House has also indicated that penalties on Russia could be tightened if talks fail. Tariffs and inflation risks weigh on demand The market downturn has also been fuelled by Trump’s new import tariffs, which took effect on Thursday. These duties target dozens of countries and are expected to disrupt supply chains, push up inflation, and slow economic activity. In parallel, OPEC’s latest output hike has added pressure to crude prices, with the combination of higher supply and weaker demand expectations reinforcing the bearish sentiment. Key US inflation data ahead Traders are now focused on US inflation figures due Tuesday, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate outlook. As quoted by Reuters, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore noted that a weaker-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading would boost expectations for earlier and deeper Fed rate cuts, potentially stimulating economic activity and supporting oil demand. Conversely, a hotter print could raise stagflation fears and delay policy easing. With geopolitical talks and economic data converging this week, oil prices are expected to remain volatile as markets balance hopes of a Ukraine peace pact against the drag from tariffs and output increases. (With inputs from the agencies)

Oil prices dropped in early Asian trade, extending last week’s losses amidst higher US tariffs, an OPEC output increase, and rising ceasefire hopes in Ukraine. Brent crude fell to $66.07, and WTI dropped to $63.30.

Oil prices slide as markets eye US–Russia Ukraine peace talks

Oil prices showed little movement in early Asian trading on August 8 but remained on track for their steepest weekly losses since late June, driven by concerns over escalating US tariffs and weakening global demand. Brent crude futures were down by three cents to $66.40 a barrel, on course for a decline of more than 4 per cent this week. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also dropped by six cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $63.82 a barrel, poised to fall by over 5 per cent on a weekly basis.The downward pressure on prices intensified after the United States implemented higher tariffs on various trade partners on August 7, which raised fears about a slowdown in global economic activity. Analysts from ANZ Bank noted that reduced economic growth would likely dampen demand for oil, further weakening the market.<h2>OPEC+ cuts and the unwinding of output cuts</h2>The oil market had already been reeling from the decision by OPEC+ to unwind its largest tranche of output cuts in September, months ahead of schedule. This move added additional supply to the market, contributing to the downward pressure on prices. Till August 7, WTI futures had declined for six consecutive sessions, matching a streak not seen since December 2023. If prices settle lower on August 8 as well, this will mark the longest losing streak since August 2021.<h2>Geopolitical developments add uncertainty</h2>Further adding to the uncertainty, the Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin would soon meet US President Donald Trump, raising hopes of a potential diplomatic resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, new US tariffs against India for purchasing Russian crude oil also kept oil prices from falling further. However, analysts from StoneX warned that this measure is unlikely to significantly reduce the flow of Russian oil to global markets.Kuwait’s Oil Minister, Tareq Al-Roumi, also weighed in on the situation, stating that oil prices are expected to remain below $72 per barrel in the near term. Al-Roumi emphasised that both Kuwait and OPEC are closely monitoring market conditions, particularly the ongoing US tariffs and the geopolitical developments involving Russia. Meanwhile, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah revealed that the country is currently producing 2.548 million barrels per day, in line with its OPEC+ commitments, but has the capacity to increase output as needed.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

The downward pressure on prices intensified after the United States implemented higher tariffs on various trade partners on August 7, which raised fears about a slowdown in global economic activity.

Oil prices showed little movement in early Asian trading on August 8 but remained on track for their steepest weekly losses since late June, driven by concerns over escalating US tariffs and weakening global demand. Brent crude futures were down by three cents to $66.40 a barrel, on course for a decline of more than 4 per cent this week. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also dropped by six cents, or 0.1 per cent, to $63.82 a barrel, poised to fall by over 5 per cent on a weekly basis. The downward pressure on prices intensified after the United States implemented higher tariffs on various trade partners on August 7, which raised fears about a slowdown in global economic activity. Analysts from ANZ Bank noted that reduced economic growth would likely dampen demand for oil, further weakening the market. OPEC+ cuts and the unwinding of output cuts The oil market had already been reeling from the decision by OPEC+ to unwind its largest tranche of output cuts in September, months ahead of schedule. This move added additional supply to the market, contributing to the downward pressure on prices. Till August 7, WTI futures had declined for six consecutive sessions, matching a streak not seen since December 2023. If prices settle lower on August 8 as well, this will mark the longest losing streak since August 2021. Geopolitical developments add uncertainty Further adding to the uncertainty, the Kremlin confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin would soon meet US President Donald Trump, raising hopes of a potential diplomatic resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, new US tariffs against India for purchasing Russian crude oil also kept oil prices from falling further. However, analysts from StoneX warned that this measure is unlikely to significantly reduce the flow of Russian oil to global markets. Kuwait’s Oil Minister, Tareq Al-Roumi, also weighed in on the situation, stating that oil prices are expected to remain below $72 per barrel in the near term. Al-Roumi emphasised that both Kuwait and OPEC are closely monitoring market conditions, particularly the ongoing US tariffs and the geopolitical developments involving Russia. Meanwhile, Kuwait Petroleum Corporation CEO Shaikh Nawaf Al-Sabah revealed that the country is currently producing 2.548 million barrels per day, in line with its OPEC+ commitments, but has the capacity to increase output as needed. (With inputs from agencies)

The downward pressure on prices intensified after the United States implemented higher tariffs on various trade partners on August 7, which raised fears about a slowdown in global economic activity.

Oil prices set for steepest weekly losses since June amid tariff concerns

OPEC and its allies are preparing to greenlight another major oil production increase for September, according to a Bloomberg report citing an OPEC+ delegate. The coalition, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is expected to ratify an output hike of 548,000 barrels per day in a video conference scheduled for Sunday. This would mark the final phase of reversing a 2.2 million barrel per day cut initiated by eight members of the group in 2023. It also includes additional allowances for the United Arab Emirates. The move reflects a dramatic pivot by the group from defending high oil prices to reclaiming market share, amid strong summer demand and geopolitical uncertainty.<h2>OPEC+ accelerates reversal of 2023 cuts</h2>As per Bloomberg, the production increase caps months of accelerated supply hikes by the alliance. In early April, OPEC+ shocked markets by announcing a rapid rollback of earlier output curbs, sending oil prices to a four-year low. That decision coincided with President Donald Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” tariffs, which rattled global markets and put pressure on the group to stabilise prices.&nbsp;Since then, OPEC+ has followed through with a series of bumper monthly increases, ramping up production further in July. Analysts suggest the group’s strategy is now geared more toward increasing global supply, rather than propping up prices.<h2>Brent holds near $70 but surplus looms</h2>Despite the sharp policy shift, crude prices have slowly recovered over the summer. Brent futures hovered just below $70 per barrel on Friday, still down 6.7 per cent for the year, according to Bloomberg data. However, market experts warn of a looming surplus later in 2025, as the production increases outpace demand growth.&nbsp;Retail gasoline prices in the US have edged lower recently, offering some political relief for President Trump, who has long criticised OPEC+ for high prices and has repeatedly urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The current supply expansion aligns with Trump’s broader economic strategy, which seeks to ease inflationary pressures by reducing energy costs.<h2>Ukraine war and Russian oil in spotlight</h2>The decision also comes as the Trump administration considers new penalties on Russian oil exports. According to Bloomberg, Washington may impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian crude unless a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine. Any disruption to Russian oil flows could push prices higher, potentially clashing with Trump’s repeated calls for cheaper energy. Against this tense backdrop, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak made a rare visit to Riyadh on Thursday. He met with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman to discuss bilateral cooperation, as reported by Bloomberg.&nbsp;&nbsp;The two nations have jointly steered OPEC+ since its inception nearly a decade ago, and their coordination will be crucial as the group weighs further output adjustments. For now, global oil markets are bracing for a potential oversupply, even as geopolitical tensions simmer. The next decision facing OPEC+ may involve the 1.66 million barrels per day of output that remains offline until the end of 2026. Whether that volume returns earlier will depend on market dynamics and perhaps more importantly, the political calculations in Washington and Moscow.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

With oil prices near $70 and surplus risks rising, OPEC+ production surge tests global demand resilience amid US-Russia tensions and Trump inflation fight.

OPEC and its allies are preparing to greenlight another major oil production increase for September, according to a Bloomberg report citing an OPEC+ delegate. The coalition, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, is expected to ratify an output hike of 548,000 barrels per day in a video conference scheduled for Sunday. This would mark the final phase of reversing a 2.2 million barrel per day cut initiated by eight members of the group in 2023. It also includes additional allowances for the United Arab Emirates. The move reflects a dramatic pivot by the group from defending high oil prices to reclaiming market share, amid strong summer demand and geopolitical uncertainty. OPEC+ accelerates reversal of 2023 cuts As per Bloomberg, the production increase caps months of accelerated supply hikes by the alliance. In early April, OPEC+ shocked markets by announcing a rapid rollback of earlier output curbs, sending oil prices to a four-year low. That decision coincided with President Donald Trump’s surprise “Liberation Day” tariffs, which rattled global markets and put pressure on the group to stabilise prices. Since then, OPEC+ has followed through with a series of bumper monthly increases, ramping up production further in July. Analysts suggest the group’s strategy is now geared more toward increasing global supply, rather than propping up prices. Brent holds near $70 but surplus looms Despite the sharp policy shift, crude prices have slowly recovered over the summer. Brent futures hovered just below $70 per barrel on Friday, still down 6.7 per cent for the year, according to Bloomberg data. However, market experts warn of a looming surplus later in 2025, as the production increases outpace demand growth. Retail gasoline prices in the US have edged lower recently, offering some political relief for President Trump, who has long criticised OPEC+ for high prices and has repeatedly urged the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. The current supply expansion aligns with Trump’s broader economic strategy, which seeks to ease inflationary pressures by reducing energy costs. Ukraine war and Russian oil in spotlight The decision also comes as the Trump administration considers new penalties on Russian oil exports. According to Bloomberg, Washington may impose secondary tariffs on buyers of Russian crude unless a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine. Any disruption to Russian oil flows could push prices higher, potentially clashing with Trump’s repeated calls for cheaper energy. Against this tense backdrop, Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak made a rare visit to Riyadh on Thursday. He met with Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman to discuss bilateral cooperation, as reported by Bloomberg. The two nations have jointly steered OPEC+ since its inception nearly a decade ago, and their coordination will be crucial as the group weighs further output adjustments. For now, global oil markets are bracing for a potential oversupply, even as geopolitical tensions simmer. The next decision facing OPEC+ may involve the 1.66 million barrels per day of output that remains offline until the end of 2026. Whether that volume returns earlier will depend on market dynamics and perhaps more importantly, the political calculations in Washington and Moscow. (With inputs from the agencies)

OPEC+ is set to approve a 548,000 bpd output hike for September, finalising its pivot from price support to regaining market share.

OPEC+ agrees to major supply hike as Trump eyes lower oil prices

On Friday, oil prices paused for breath. This comes as it was teetering between two conflicting forces, fears of slowing global demand triggered by US tariffs, and threats of supply disruptions from Russia that could tighten markets. As per Reuters, Brent crude futures inched up by just 4 cents to $71.74 a barrel at 1201 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged a mere 1 cent higher to $69.27. Despite the quiet session, both benchmarks were on track for weekly gains, 4.9% for Brent and a stronger 6.4% for WTI.<h2>Tariff threats complicate the outlook</h2>At the centre of the volatility is US President Donald Trump’s aggressive new trade offensive. On Thursday, Trump signed an executive order imposing steep tariffs, between 10 per cent and 41 per cent, on US imports from dozens of countries, including Canada, India, and Taiwan. The order targets nations that failed to meet Trump’s August 1 deadline to strike bilateral trade agreements with Washington. These sweeping tariffs are already showing ripple effects in the US economy, as per Reuters. In June, inflation ticked up as duties drove prices higher on imported goods ranging from furniture to recreational products, adding to concerns that consumer spending may be squeezed.&nbsp;This, in turn, could weigh on fuel demand. Analysts warn that higher costs and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts could limit economic growth, indirectly suppressing oil consumption in the world’s largest crude consumer. “The levies will limit economic growth by raising prices, which would weigh on oil consumption,” analysts cautioned in remarks quoted by Reuters.<h2>Russian oil supply caught in the crosshairs</h2>Yet while demand-side worries linger, supply-side jitters are keeping a floor under oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump threatened secondary sanctions on countries that continue to buy Russian crude, which notably includes China and India, who are the second and third-largest oil consumers in the world. The major goal of Trump's ultimatum is to economically isolate Moscow and force an end to its war against Ukraine.&nbsp;The move has sparked unease in global oil markets. According to a note from JP Morgan, also cited by Reuters, as much as 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian seaborne oil exports could be at risk if Washington proceeds with penalising buyers. “The Trump administration, like its predecessors, will likely find sanctioning the world’s second-largest oil exporter unfeasible without spiking oil prices,” JP Morgan analysts wrote. Even the threat of such tariffs has already started reshuffling global trade flows, with refiners and shippers reassessing exposure to Russian barrels. In the short term, this could tighten supply and lend support to oil prices.<h2>What happens next?</h2>Markets now face a delicate balancing act. Will Trump’s tariff escalation choke off global growth? Or will Russian supply threats dominate headlines and keep prices elevated? What’s clear is that geopolitics, not just fundamentals and will continue to drive volatility in oil markets.&nbsp;With US inflation rising and the Federal Reserve potentially delaying interest rate cuts until October, as reported by Reuters, any sustained rise in oil prices could further complicate the policy outlook. For now, oil traders are caught between two opposing forces, a world that might consume less, and a world that might produce less.&nbsp;And in the middle of it all is a global economy trying to dodge both a trade war and an oil shock.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)

Brent crude slightly rose to $71.74 a barrel, while WTI increased to $69.27, both on course for weekly gains. Trump new tariffs may limit economic growth, impacting oil consumption. Concurrently, threats of sanctions on countries buying Russian crude add to market anxiety. 

On Friday, oil prices paused for breath. This comes as it was teetering between two conflicting forces, fears of slowing global demand triggered by US tariffs, and threats of supply disruptions from Russia that could tighten markets. As per Reuters, Brent crude futures inched up by just 4 cents to $71.74 a barrel at 1201 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude edged a mere 1 cent higher to $69.27. Despite the quiet session, both benchmarks were on track for weekly gains, 4.9% for Brent and a stronger 6.4% for WTI. Tariff threats complicate the outlook At the centre of the volatility is US President Donald Trump’s aggressive new trade offensive. On Thursday, Trump signed an executive order imposing steep tariffs, between 10 per cent and 41 per cent, on US imports from dozens of countries, including Canada, India, and Taiwan. The order targets nations that failed to meet Trump’s August 1 deadline to strike bilateral trade agreements with Washington. These sweeping tariffs are already showing ripple effects in the US economy, as per Reuters. In June, inflation ticked up as duties drove prices higher on imported goods ranging from furniture to recreational products, adding to concerns that consumer spending may be squeezed. This, in turn, could weigh on fuel demand. Analysts warn that higher costs and delayed Federal Reserve rate cuts could limit economic growth, indirectly suppressing oil consumption in the world’s largest crude consumer. “The levies will limit economic growth by raising prices, which would weigh on oil consumption,” analysts cautioned in remarks quoted by Reuters. Russian oil supply caught in the crosshairs Yet while demand-side worries linger, supply-side jitters are keeping a floor under oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump threatened secondary sanctions on countries that continue to buy Russian crude, which notably includes China and India, who are the second and third-largest oil consumers in the world. The major goal of Trump's ultimatum is to economically isolate Moscow and force an end to its war against Ukraine. The move has sparked unease in global oil markets. According to a note from JP Morgan, also cited by Reuters, as much as 2.75 million barrels per day of Russian seaborne oil exports could be at risk if Washington proceeds with penalising buyers. “The Trump administration, like its predecessors, will likely find sanctioning the world’s second-largest oil exporter unfeasible without spiking oil prices,” JP Morgan analysts wrote. Even the threat of such tariffs has already started reshuffling global trade flows, with refiners and shippers reassessing exposure to Russian barrels. In the short term, this could tighten supply and lend support to oil prices. What happens next? Markets now face a delicate balancing act. Will Trump’s tariff escalation choke off global growth? Or will Russian supply threats dominate headlines and keep prices elevated? What’s clear is that geopolitics, not just fundamentals and will continue to drive volatility in oil markets. With US inflation rising and the Federal Reserve potentially delaying interest rate cuts until October, as reported by Reuters, any sustained rise in oil prices could further complicate the policy outlook. For now, oil traders are caught between two opposing forces, a world that might consume less, and a world that might produce less. And in the middle of it all is a global economy trying to dodge both a trade war and an oil shock. (With inputs from the agencies)

Oil prices stabilised on Friday amid conflicting pressures: apprehensions about descending global demand due to US tariffs, and potential supply disruptions from Russia.

Oil holds as Trump’s tariff war clashes with Russian supply fears

On Monday, oil markets found fresh momentum after the United States and European Union struck a long-awaited trade deal and signalled a potential extension of tariff relief with China. Together, the two trade talks developments eased fears of a global economic slowdown and lifted hopes for sustained fuel demand. As per Reuters, Brent crude futures rose 22 cents, or 0.32 per cent, to $68.66 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 22 cents, or 0.34 per cent, to $65.38 by early Asian trading hours.'&nbsp;Markets had been on edge amid fears that heightened US tariffs could dent global trade and energy demand. But Sunday’s EU–US framework trade agreement imposed only a 15 per cent tariff on most EU goods which is below the Trump's earlier threat of 30 per cent or more. That, along with fresh negotiations between the US and China in Stockholm, helped calm investor nerves. Talks are aimed at extending the tariff truce ahead of an August 12 deadline, giving energy markets another reason to breathe easy. “The US–EU deal and a possible US–China extension are supporting global financial markets and oil prices,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Markets, as quoted by Reuters.<h2>OPEC+ supply moves keep a lid on gains</h2>Despite Monday’s uptick, broader oil gains were limited by supply-side concerns. Meanwhile, a market-monitoring panel of OPEC+ nations is set to meet later on Monday and is unlikely to recommend changes to existing plans by eight member countries to boost production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, according to Reuters. The group is still focused on regaining market share while seasonal summer demand continues to absorb excess output.&nbsp;Meanwhile, in Venezuela, state-run oil company PDVSA is preparing to ramp up joint ventures once US President Donald Trump reinstates swap-based oil export authorisations. These licences were initially granted during the Biden era but were paused under Trump’s second term. PDVSA is ready to act once those licences are restored, according to company insiders.<h2>Geopolitical threats linger</h2>On Sunday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels issued a fresh warning. They threatened to target any ships tied to Israeli ports, regardless of nationality, as part of their ongoing retaliation over the Israel–Gaza conflict. This marks what the Houthis have termed the “fourth phase” of their campaign against Israel. While the Houthi threat hasn’t yet disrupted oil supply routes, it adds to a complex web of geopolitical risks that continue to influence crude prices.<h2>Demand fundamentals still strong</h2>According to J.P. Morgan, in July, the global oil demand rose by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to a year ago. However, global oil inventories also increased by 1.6 million bpd, signalling some excess supply remains in the system.Still, markets are betting that smoother trade flows, especially between the world’s largest economies, could keep oil demand stable as the year&nbsp;progresses.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

Brent crude rose 22 cents to $68.66 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate climbed 22 cents to $65.38. However, supply concerns and OPEC+ production plans kept gains limited.

On Monday, oil markets found fresh momentum after the United States and European Union struck a long-awaited trade deal and signalled a potential extension of tariff relief with China. Together, the two trade talks developments eased fears of a global economic slowdown and lifted hopes for sustained fuel demand. As per Reuters, Brent crude futures rose 22 cents, or 0.32 per cent, to $68.66 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude climbed 22 cents, or 0.34 per cent, to $65.38 by early Asian trading hours.' Markets had been on edge amid fears that heightened US tariffs could dent global trade and energy demand. But Sunday’s EU–US framework trade agreement imposed only a 15 per cent tariff on most EU goods which is below the Trump's earlier threat of 30 per cent or more. That, along with fresh negotiations between the US and China in Stockholm, helped calm investor nerves. Talks are aimed at extending the tariff truce ahead of an August 12 deadline, giving energy markets another reason to breathe easy. “The US–EU deal and a possible US–China extension are supporting global financial markets and oil prices,” said Tony Sycamore, analyst at IG Markets, as quoted by Reuters. OPEC+ supply moves keep a lid on gains Despite Monday’s uptick, broader oil gains were limited by supply-side concerns. Meanwhile, a market-monitoring panel of OPEC+ nations is set to meet later on Monday and is unlikely to recommend changes to existing plans by eight member countries to boost production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, according to Reuters. The group is still focused on regaining market share while seasonal summer demand continues to absorb excess output. Meanwhile, in Venezuela, state-run oil company PDVSA is preparing to ramp up joint ventures once US President Donald Trump reinstates swap-based oil export authorisations. These licences were initially granted during the Biden era but were paused under Trump’s second term. PDVSA is ready to act once those licences are restored, according to company insiders. Geopolitical threats linger On Sunday, Yemen’s Houthi rebels issued a fresh warning. They threatened to target any ships tied to Israeli ports, regardless of nationality, as part of their ongoing retaliation over the Israel–Gaza conflict. This marks what the Houthis have termed the “fourth phase” of their campaign against Israel. While the Houthi threat hasn’t yet disrupted oil supply routes, it adds to a complex web of geopolitical risks that continue to influence crude prices. Demand fundamentals still strong According to J.P. Morgan, in July, the global oil demand rose by 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) compared to a year ago. However, global oil inventories also increased by 1.6 million bpd, signalling some excess supply remains in the system. Still, markets are betting that smoother trade flows, especially between the world’s largest economies, could keep oil demand stable as the year progresses. (With inputs from the agencies)

On Monday, oil markets gained momentum following a US-EU trade deal and potential extension of tariff relief with China, raising hopes for sustained fuel demand.

Oil prices rise as US–EU trade deal boosts market optimism

On Thursday, Oil prices inched higher, supported by renewed optimism over US-led trade negotiations and a steeper-than-expected drop in American crude stockpiles. As US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff deal with Japan raised hopes of a broader easing of global trade tensions, markets remained cautiously upbeat. As per Reuters, Brent crude futures inched by 24 cents, or 0.4 per cent, to $68.75 a barrel by 0032 GMT. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 25 cents, or 0.4 per cent, to $65.50 per barrel. Though oil markets had remained subdued earlier in the week but the tide turned after the US and Japan reached a significant trade agreement. The deal spares Tokyo from new American auto import tariffs in exchange for a $550 billion package of investments and loans flowing into the US economy, as per Reuters.&nbsp;“Buying was driven by optimism that progress in tariff negotiations with the US would help avoid a worst-case scenario,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, as quoted by Reuters. However, Kikukawa cautioned that crude gains may remain capped due to ongoing uncertainty around US-China trade talks and the fragile status of Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations. He further predicted that WTI prices are likely to stay range-bound between $60 and $70 per barrel.<h2>EU-US deal in the works?</h2>Adding to the upbeat tone, two European diplomats told Reuters that the US and the European Union are inching closer to a separate trade pact. The potential deal could include a baseline 15 per cent tariff on EU goods, with provisions for exemptions. This follows the Japan breakthrough and signals Washington’s strategy of building economic alliances to consolidate influence.<h2>US crude stockpiles fall</h2>On the supply front, US inventory data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) provided further support for oil prices. According to Reuters, US crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels last week to 419 million barrels. That drawdown was double the market expectation of a 1.6 million-barrel decline, indicating stronger-than-anticipated domestic demand.<h2>Impact of sanctions on Russian oil&nbsp;</h2>On Wednesday, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were held in Istanbul, focusing on prisoner exchanges. However, a breakthrough on ceasefire terms or a direct summit between leaders appears distant, as per Reuters.&nbsp; Meanwhile, oil flows from Russia’s main Black Sea ports were temporarily disrupted. Industry sources told Reuters that new regulations effectively halted shipments from Kazakhstan via a key export consortium that includes American energy firms. Meanwhile, the US is considering broader energy sanctions.&nbsp;On Tuesday, the US Energy Secretary signalled that Washington may impose fresh sanctions on Russian oil in an effort to bring the Ukraine war to an end. The EU, on its part, adopted an 18th sanctions package on Friday, which includes lowering the price cap for Russian crude exports.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

On Wednesday, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were held in Istanbul, focusing on prisoner exchanges. However, a breakthrough on ceasefire terms or a direct summit between leaders appears distant, as per Reuters.

On Thursday, Oil prices inched higher, supported by renewed optimism over US-led trade negotiations and a steeper-than-expected drop in American crude stockpiles. As US President Donald Trump’s recent tariff deal with Japan raised hopes of a broader easing of global trade tensions, markets remained cautiously upbeat. As per Reuters, Brent crude futures inched by 24 cents, or 0.4 per cent, to $68.75 a barrel by 0032 GMT. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose by 25 cents, or 0.4 per cent, to $65.50 per barrel. Though oil markets had remained subdued earlier in the week but the tide turned after the US and Japan reached a significant trade agreement. The deal spares Tokyo from new American auto import tariffs in exchange for a $550 billion package of investments and loans flowing into the US economy, as per Reuters. “Buying was driven by optimism that progress in tariff negotiations with the US would help avoid a worst-case scenario,” said Hiroyuki Kikukawa, chief strategist at Nissan Securities Investment, as quoted by Reuters. However, Kikukawa cautioned that crude gains may remain capped due to ongoing uncertainty around US-China trade talks and the fragile status of Russia–Ukraine peace negotiations. He further predicted that WTI prices are likely to stay range-bound between $60 and $70 per barrel. EU-US deal in the works? Adding to the upbeat tone, two European diplomats told Reuters that the US and the European Union are inching closer to a separate trade pact. The potential deal could include a baseline 15 per cent tariff on EU goods, with provisions for exemptions. This follows the Japan breakthrough and signals Washington’s strategy of building economic alliances to consolidate influence. US crude stockpiles fall On the supply front, US inventory data released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) provided further support for oil prices. According to Reuters, US crude inventories fell by 3.2 million barrels last week to 419 million barrels. That drawdown was double the market expectation of a 1.6 million-barrel decline, indicating stronger-than-anticipated domestic demand. Impact of sanctions on Russian oil On Wednesday, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine were held in Istanbul, focusing on prisoner exchanges. However, a breakthrough on ceasefire terms or a direct summit between leaders appears distant, as per Reuters. Meanwhile, oil flows from Russia’s main Black Sea ports were temporarily disrupted. Industry sources told Reuters that new regulations effectively halted shipments from Kazakhstan via a key export consortium that includes American energy firms. Meanwhile, the US is considering broader energy sanctions. On Tuesday, the US Energy Secretary signalled that Washington may impose fresh sanctions on Russian oil in an effort to bring the Ukraine war to an end. The EU, on its part, adopted an 18th sanctions package on Friday, which includes lowering the price cap for Russian crude exports. (With inputs from the agencies)

Global crude markets steady amid US-Japan tariff deal, Russia-Ukraine tensions, and surprise inventory drawdown

Oil prices rise on US trade optimism, sharp fall in crude stockpiles

As markets responded to signs of easing tensions between the United States and Japan, on Wednesday, oil prices inched up in Asian trading, halting a three-session losing streak. However, the upside remained muted as investors braced for limited progress at the upcoming EU-China summit and broader uncertainty around trade policy.&nbsp;Brent crude futures rose by 21 cents, or 0.31 per cent, to $68.80 a barrel by 0351 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 17 cents, or 0.26 per cent, to $65.48. Both contracts had lost nearly 1 per cent in the previous session on worries that the European Union may retaliate against US tariffs.&nbsp;WTI for September delivery moved closer to $66 a barrel after falling over three days, while Brent hovered just below the $69 mark, according to Bloomberg. Despite the uptick, both benchmarks remain under immense pressure as Brent is still down around 8 per cent year-to-date.<h2>US-Japan deal&nbsp;</h2>On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced that a trade deal had been struck with Japan, setting a 15 per cent tariff on Japanese auto imports and securing up to $550 billion in investment commitments for US supply chains.&nbsp;Oil traders took note of the agreement, which temporarily eased fears of escalating trade friction with America’s key Asian ally. “The slide of the past three sessions appears to have abated,” said Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights, “but I don’t expect much of an upward impetus from the US-Japan trade deal,” she told Reuters.<h2>EU-China summit weighs on market mood</h2>As the Japan deal offered a short-term lift, now all eyes are on the European Union-China summit, which is reportedly expected to deliver little concrete progress on Thursday. Both sides remain at odds on trade and technology issues.&nbsp;China’s commerce ministry said that its talks with the EU trade chief were “candid and in-depth,” but expectations are low. Meanwhile, as per Bloomberg, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese negotiators in Stockholm next week, and may extend the current August 12 deadline for negotiations.<h2>US stockpiles shift, but outlook remains mixed</h2>Market sources citing American Petroleum Institute (API) data said that US crude and gasoline inventories declined last week, while distillate stockpiles rose by 3.48 million barrels. Analysts at ING said this could ease pressure on the diesel market, which has been facing a supply crunch.&nbsp;Though the traders are cautious as the official inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration due later on Wednesday.<h2>Russia sanctions talk adds uncertainty</h2>In another development, the US energy secretary said Washington may consider new sanctions on Russian oil to help end the war in Ukraine. The European Union recently passed its 18th sanctions package, which lowers the price cap on Russian crude.&nbsp;However, analysts warned that without active US enforcement, the effectiveness of EU measures could be limited. &nbsp;

This comes after US President Donald Trump announced that a trade deal had been struck with Japan, setting a 15 per cent tariff on Japanese auto imports and securing up to $550 billion in investment commitments for US supply chains.

As markets responded to signs of easing tensions between the United States and Japan, on Wednesday, oil prices inched up in Asian trading, halting a three-session losing streak. However, the upside remained muted as investors braced for limited progress at the upcoming EU-China summit and broader uncertainty around trade policy. Brent crude futures rose by 21 cents, or 0.31 per cent, to $68.80 a barrel by 0351 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) climbed 17 cents, or 0.26 per cent, to $65.48. Both contracts had lost nearly 1 per cent in the previous session on worries that the European Union may retaliate against US tariffs. WTI for September delivery moved closer to $66 a barrel after falling over three days, while Brent hovered just below the $69 mark, according to Bloomberg. Despite the uptick, both benchmarks remain under immense pressure as Brent is still down around 8 per cent year-to-date. US-Japan deal On Tuesday, US President Donald Trump announced that a trade deal had been struck with Japan, setting a 15 per cent tariff on Japanese auto imports and securing up to $550 billion in investment commitments for US supply chains. Oil traders took note of the agreement, which temporarily eased fears of escalating trade friction with America’s key Asian ally. “The slide of the past three sessions appears to have abated,” said Vandana Hari of Vanda Insights, “but I don’t expect much of an upward impetus from the US-Japan trade deal,” she told Reuters. EU-China summit weighs on market mood As the Japan deal offered a short-term lift, now all eyes are on the European Union-China summit, which is reportedly expected to deliver little concrete progress on Thursday. Both sides remain at odds on trade and technology issues. China’s commerce ministry said that its talks with the EU trade chief were “candid and in-depth,” but expectations are low. Meanwhile, as per Bloomberg, the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet Chinese negotiators in Stockholm next week, and may extend the current August 12 deadline for negotiations. US stockpiles shift, but outlook remains mixed Market sources citing American Petroleum Institute (API) data said that US crude and gasoline inventories declined last week, while distillate stockpiles rose by 3.48 million barrels. Analysts at ING said this could ease pressure on the diesel market, which has been facing a supply crunch. Though the traders are cautious as the official inventory data from the US Energy Information Administration due later on Wednesday. Russia sanctions talk adds uncertainty In another development, the US energy secretary said Washington may consider new sanctions on Russian oil to help end the war in Ukraine. The European Union recently passed its 18th sanctions package, which lowers the price cap on Russian crude. However, analysts warned that without active US enforcement, the effectiveness of EU measures could be limited.

On Wednesday, oil prices rose modestly in Asian trading, snapping a three-session declining trend, as easing US-Japan trade tensions provided temporary relief.

Oil prices edge higher after US-Japan trade deal

On Monday, as investors took stock of fresh European sanctions on Russian energy exports, diplomatic uncertainty over Iran, and the looming risk of new US tariffs, oil prices barely moved. Despite escalating geopolitical tension, traders remained cautious, with crude benchmarks locked in a narrow range. As per Reuters, Brent crude went up by just 5 cents to $69.33 a barrel in early trade, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added 2 cents to $67.36. This follows Friday's trend, but oil remains under pressure after slipping 1.5 per cent last week, its first weekly drop in July, as per Bloomberg.&nbsp;Since May, crude prices have been trending higher, but remain nearly 7 per cent lower for the year. Analysts say a mix of oversupply, trade war fears, and diplomatic standoffs has kept energy markets in a holding pattern.<h2>India’s Nayara caught in crossfire as EU targets Russian energy</h2>Last week, the European Union approved its 18th package of sanctions against Russia. This comes as the West intensifies pressure on Moscow over the war in Ukraine. The measures include a lower price cap on Russian crude, banking restrictions, and new curbs on refined fuels. The sanctions also reportedly hit India’s Nayara Energy, a major buyer and exporter of Russian oil products.&nbsp;By slamming the move as “unjustified and illegal", Rosneft, Russia’s top oil producer and a stakeholder in Nayara warns that this will threaten India’s energy security. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov added that Russia had developed “a certain immunity” to Western sanctions, as quoted by Reuters.<h2>Iran to resume nuclear talks as fresh sanctions in play</h2>Meanwhile, another sanctioned oil producer, Iran, is preparing for renewed nuclear talks. According to an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson quoted by Reuters, negotiations with Britain, France, and Germany are expected to take place in Istanbul on Friday.&nbsp;The talks follow warnings from European powers that failure to re-engage on the 2015 nuclear deal could trigger new international sanctions. This further adds uncertainty to the global crude supply.<h2>US eyes tariffs</h2>Across the Atlantic, markets are closely watching the next phase of the US-EU trade standoff. US tariffs on European imports are set to kick in on August 1. However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he remains “confident” that a trade deal can be reached, as reported by Reuters. Bloomberg reports that EU envoys could meet as early as this week to plan countermeasures, including possible restrictions on US energy firms, in the event of a no-deal outcome. President Donald Trump’s negotiating position is said to have hardened ahead of the August deadline.&nbsp;Meanwhile, in the US, oilfield activity is showing signs of a slowdown. The number of active oil rigs fell by two last week to 422, the lowest since September 2021, according to Baker Hughes data released on Friday. Though this suggests slightly tighter domestic supply, analysts say it’s unlikely to drive major price changes without a broader shift in geopolitical risk or demand outlook.&nbsp;With sanctions tightening on Russia and Iran, and trade tensions heating up between the US and Europe, oil markets are stuck in a delicate balancing act. As traders await clarity on both diplomacy and demand, prices may remain range-bound in the near term.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)

Brent crude rose minimally to $69.33 a barrel, and WTI increased to $67.36, despite a 1.5% drop last week. Analysts note crude prices are nearly 7% lower for the year, affected by oversupply and trade wars.

On Monday, as investors took stock of fresh European sanctions on Russian energy exports, diplomatic uncertainty over Iran, and the looming risk of new US tariffs, oil prices barely moved. Despite escalating geopolitical tension, traders remained cautious, with crude benchmarks locked in a narrow range. As per Reuters, Brent crude went up by just 5 cents to $69.33 a barrel in early trade, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) added 2 cents to $67.36. This follows Friday's trend, but oil remains under pressure after slipping 1.5 per cent last week, its first weekly drop in July, as per Bloomberg. Since May, crude prices have been trending higher, but remain nearly 7 per cent lower for the year. Analysts say a mix of oversupply, trade war fears, and diplomatic standoffs has kept energy markets in a holding pattern. India’s Nayara caught in crossfire as EU targets Russian energy Last week, the European Union approved its 18th package of sanctions against Russia. This comes as the West intensifies pressure on Moscow over the war in Ukraine. The measures include a lower price cap on Russian crude, banking restrictions, and new curbs on refined fuels. The sanctions also reportedly hit India’s Nayara Energy, a major buyer and exporter of Russian oil products. By slamming the move as “unjustified and illegal", Rosneft, Russia’s top oil producer and a stakeholder in Nayara warns that this will threaten India’s energy security. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov added that Russia had developed “a certain immunity” to Western sanctions, as quoted by Reuters. Iran to resume nuclear talks as fresh sanctions in play Meanwhile, another sanctioned oil producer, Iran, is preparing for renewed nuclear talks. According to an Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson quoted by Reuters, negotiations with Britain, France, and Germany are expected to take place in Istanbul on Friday. The talks follow warnings from European powers that failure to re-engage on the 2015 nuclear deal could trigger new international sanctions. This further adds uncertainty to the global crude supply. US eyes tariffs Across the Atlantic, markets are closely watching the next phase of the US-EU trade standoff. US tariffs on European imports are set to kick in on August 1. However, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday he remains “confident” that a trade deal can be reached, as reported by Reuters. Bloomberg reports that EU envoys could meet as early as this week to plan countermeasures, including possible restrictions on US energy firms, in the event of a no-deal outcome. President Donald Trump’s negotiating position is said to have hardened ahead of the August deadline. Meanwhile, in the US, oilfield activity is showing signs of a slowdown. The number of active oil rigs fell by two last week to 422, the lowest since September 2021, according to Baker Hughes data released on Friday. Though this suggests slightly tighter domestic supply, analysts say it’s unlikely to drive major price changes without a broader shift in geopolitical risk or demand outlook. With sanctions tightening on Russia and Iran, and trade tensions heating up between the US and Europe, oil markets are stuck in a delicate balancing act. As traders await clarity on both diplomacy and demand, prices may remain range-bound in the near term. (With inputs from the agencies)

Oil prices on Monday remained stagnant as investors assessed new European sanctions on Russian energy, diplomatic uncertainties around Iran, and upcoming US tariffs.

Oil prices stay steady amid Russia sanctions and tariff fears collide

Oil prices rebounded in early Thursday trade, as investor sentiment turned optimistic following stronger-than-expected economic data from the United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers and signs of easing global trade tensions. The reversal comes after oil benchmarks posted slight losses in the previous session.&nbsp;As per Reuters, Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.39 per cent, to $68.79 a barrel at 0000 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 31 cents, or 0.47 per cent, to $66.69. Both benchmarks had slipped more than 0.2 per cent on Wednesday.<h2>US inventory draw signals strong demand</h2>A key driver behind the rebound was the sharp decline in US crude stockpiles. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week to 422.2 million barrels, significantly more than the 552,000-barrel draw forecast by analysts.&nbsp;This larger-than-expected drop suggests stronger refinery activity and tighter supply, reflecting growing domestic demand. “There is some support from the favourable margin environment associated with the refining sector. Product spreads remain relatively wide in all the regions,” said John Paisie, president of energy consultancy Stratas Advisors, as quoted by Reuters. However, the rise in gasoline and diesel inventories tempered bullish sentiment, indicating that demand for refined products remains patchy.<h2>Fed report mixed, but demand outlook steady</h2>The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book, a snapshot of current US economic conditions, indicated moderate improvement in recent weeks. But the outlook remained “neutral to slightly pessimistic”, with businesses citing rising costs due to import tariffs.&nbsp;Still, the positive activity data helped stabilise oil sentiment, particularly amid fears that prolonged rate pressures and protectionism could curb industrial fuel use.<h2>China’s crude throughput rises despite slowing economy</h2>China’s economic growth slowed in the second quarter, but not as drastically as feared, easing concerns over a deep slowdown. As per Reuters, part of the resilience was attributed to front-loaded activity to beat US tariffs. The most encouraging signal for oil markets was China’s June crude oil throughput, which rose 8.5 per cent from a year earlier, indicating firm underlying fuel demand.&nbsp;This uptick in refining points to stronger energy consumption, even as trade headwinds persist.<h2>Trump’s trade gestures boost confidence</h2>Adding to the market’s buoyancy was a slight thaw in trade tensions. As reported by Reuters, US President Donald Trump this week lifted the ban on AI chip exports to China and announced a trade deal with Indonesia. He also signalled progress on agreements with India and possibly Europe.Trump even expressed optimism over potential cooperation with Beijing on illicit drug controls, signalling a broader effort to revive dialogue with key partners. While high tariffs continue to pose risks to global demand, the easing rhetoric has temporarily soothed market nerves, offering support to crude prices, at least in the short term.&nbsp;Despite global uncertainties, oil markets found support from stronger-than-expected economic data, falling US crude stocks, and glimmers of diplomatic progress on trade. But with gasoline builds rising and tariff risks still looming, the rebound remains on a cautious footing.&nbsp;

Brent crude increased by 0.39% to $68.79, and WTI climbed 0.47% to $66.69. A notable decrease in US crude inventories, down 3.9 million barrels, indicates robust demand. 

Oil prices rebounded in early Thursday trade, as investor sentiment turned optimistic following stronger-than-expected economic data from the United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers and signs of easing global trade tensions. The reversal comes after oil benchmarks posted slight losses in the previous session. As per Reuters, Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.39 per cent, to $68.79 a barrel at 0000 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 31 cents, or 0.47 per cent, to $66.69. Both benchmarks had slipped more than 0.2 per cent on Wednesday. US inventory draw signals strong demand A key driver behind the rebound was the sharp decline in US crude stockpiles. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week to 422.2 million barrels, significantly more than the 552,000-barrel draw forecast by analysts. This larger-than-expected drop suggests stronger refinery activity and tighter supply, reflecting growing domestic demand. “There is some support from the favourable margin environment associated with the refining sector. Product spreads remain relatively wide in all the regions,” said John Paisie, president of energy consultancy Stratas Advisors, as quoted by Reuters. However, the rise in gasoline and diesel inventories tempered bullish sentiment, indicating that demand for refined products remains patchy. Fed report mixed, but demand outlook steady The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book, a snapshot of current US economic conditions, indicated moderate improvement in recent weeks. But the outlook remained “neutral to slightly pessimistic”, with businesses citing rising costs due to import tariffs. Still, the positive activity data helped stabilise oil sentiment, particularly amid fears that prolonged rate pressures and protectionism could curb industrial fuel use. China’s crude throughput rises despite slowing economy China’s economic growth slowed in the second quarter, but not as drastically as feared, easing concerns over a deep slowdown. As per Reuters, part of the resilience was attributed to front-loaded activity to beat US tariffs. The most encouraging signal for oil markets was China’s June crude oil throughput, which rose 8.5 per cent from a year earlier, indicating firm underlying fuel demand. This uptick in refining points to stronger energy consumption, even as trade headwinds persist. Trump’s trade gestures boost confidence Adding to the market’s buoyancy was a slight thaw in trade tensions. As reported by Reuters, US President Donald Trump this week lifted the ban on AI chip exports to China and announced a trade deal with Indonesia. He also signalled progress on agreements with India and possibly Europe. Trump even expressed optimism over potential cooperation with Beijing on illicit drug controls, signalling a broader effort to revive dialogue with key partners. While high tariffs continue to pose risks to global demand, the easing rhetoric has temporarily soothed market nerves, offering support to crude prices, at least in the short term. Despite global uncertainties, oil markets found support from stronger-than-expected economic data, falling US crude stocks, and glimmers of diplomatic progress on trade. But with gasoline builds rising and tariff risks still looming, the rebound remains on a cautious footing.

Oil prices rose early Thursday, driven by positive economic data from the US and China, along with reduced global trade tensions.

Oil rises on US demand, China data and trade hopes

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 50-day deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war eased immediate concerns about sanctions-related supply disruptions, giving markets a reprieve after recent volatility.&nbsp;According to Reuters, Brent crude futures declined 29 cents, or 0.4 per cent, to $68.92 a barrel by 0342 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 35 cents, or 0.5 per cent, to $66.63. Both benchmarks had already fallen more than $1 in the previous session as traders digested Trump’s more measured timeline for potential sanctions.<h2>Market relief after sanctions scare</h2>Oil prices had surged initially on worries that new US sanctions would quickly disrupt Russian crude exports, but those gains evaporated after Trump set a relatively long 50-day window for Russia to withdraw its forces and avoid punitive measures.&nbsp;“Trump’s milder stance on sanctions over Russian oil eased fears of a supply crunch while his tariff plan continues to mount economic pressures,” Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, told Reuters.&nbsp;Analysts say the extended deadline gives Moscow a diplomatic off-ramp while giving global oil traders time to adjust. Traders are now debating whether the US will actually impose tough sanctions if the deadline passes without progress.<h2>Potential for major market shift remains</h2>Despite the near-term easing in prices, analysts warn that the risk of sanctions still looms large if Russia does not comply. “If Trump does follow through and the proposed sanctions are implemented, it would drastically change the outlook for the oil market,” ING analysts said in a note cited by Reuters.&nbsp;Such measures would pose a stark dilemma for Russia’s biggest crude buyers like China, India, and Turkey, which would have to balance the benefits of cheap Russian oil against the cost of possible US penalties or tariffs on their exports.<h2>Tariff threats and global demand worries</h2>In addition to the Russia sanctions warning, President Trump has also escalated trade tensions on other fronts. On Saturday, he announced plans to impose a 30 per cent tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1, adding to earlier tariff threats targeting other countries.&nbsp;As per Reuters, these trade measures risk slowing global economic growth, a factor that could dent oil demand and weigh on prices in the coming months. “Tariffs risk slowing down economic growth, which could sap global fuel demand and drag oil prices lower,” ING’s note added.<h2>Supply outlook remains tight in near term</h2>Despite these concerns, the underlying oil market remains relatively well-supported for now. According to Reuters, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) secretary general said oil demand is set to stay “very strong” through the third quarter, keeping the market snugly balanced in the short run.&nbsp;Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its oil price outlook for the second half of 2025. The bank cited potential supply disruptions, tightening inventories in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, and production constraints in Russia as factors that could support higher prices.&nbsp;

Crude benchmarks fell as Trump extended deadline for Russia Ukraine withdrawal soothed fears of near term sanctions. Analysts say the reprieve could be short-lived if Moscow fails to comply.

Oil prices fell on Tuesday as US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 50-day deadline for Russia to end the Ukraine war eased immediate concerns about sanctions-related supply disruptions, giving markets a reprieve after recent volatility. According to Reuters, Brent crude futures declined 29 cents, or 0.4 per cent, to $68.92 a barrel by 0342 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 35 cents, or 0.5 per cent, to $66.63. Both benchmarks had already fallen more than $1 in the previous session as traders digested Trump’s more measured timeline for potential sanctions. Market relief after sanctions scare Oil prices had surged initially on worries that new US sanctions would quickly disrupt Russian crude exports, but those gains evaporated after Trump set a relatively long 50-day window for Russia to withdraw its forces and avoid punitive measures. “Trump’s milder stance on sanctions over Russian oil eased fears of a supply crunch while his tariff plan continues to mount economic pressures,” Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, told Reuters. Analysts say the extended deadline gives Moscow a diplomatic off-ramp while giving global oil traders time to adjust. Traders are now debating whether the US will actually impose tough sanctions if the deadline passes without progress. Potential for major market shift remains Despite the near-term easing in prices, analysts warn that the risk of sanctions still looms large if Russia does not comply. “If Trump does follow through and the proposed sanctions are implemented, it would drastically change the outlook for the oil market,” ING analysts said in a note cited by Reuters. Such measures would pose a stark dilemma for Russia’s biggest crude buyers like China, India, and Turkey, which would have to balance the benefits of cheap Russian oil against the cost of possible US penalties or tariffs on their exports. Tariff threats and global demand worries In addition to the Russia sanctions warning, President Trump has also escalated trade tensions on other fronts. On Saturday, he announced plans to impose a 30 per cent tariff on most imports from the European Union and Mexico from August 1, adding to earlier tariff threats targeting other countries. As per Reuters, these trade measures risk slowing global economic growth, a factor that could dent oil demand and weigh on prices in the coming months. “Tariffs risk slowing down economic growth, which could sap global fuel demand and drag oil prices lower,” ING’s note added. Supply outlook remains tight in near term Despite these concerns, the underlying oil market remains relatively well-supported for now. According to Reuters, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) secretary general said oil demand is set to stay “very strong” through the third quarter, keeping the market snugly balanced in the short run. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its oil price outlook for the second half of 2025. The bank cited potential supply disruptions, tightening inventories in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries, and production constraints in Russia as factors that could support higher prices.

Oil prices dipped after President Trump gave Russia a 50-day deadline to end the Ukraine war, easing fears of immediate supply disruptions from sanctions.

Oil prices slip as Trump’s 50-day Russia deadline cools supply fears

Oil prices edged higher on Monday, extending last week’s gains, as traders kept watch for potential new sanctions on Russia from the United States that could disrupt global supply routes. But a mixed backdrop, including higher Saudi output and persistent tariff uncertainty kept investors cautious about the scale of any rally.&nbsp;According to Reuters, Brent crude futures rose to around $70.51 a barrel in early Asian trading, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was near $68.59. Both benchmarks had surged more than two per cent on Friday, buoyed by expectations of tighter summer demand.<h2>Spotlight on Trump’s Russia statement</h2>The market’s attention this week is firmly on Washington. As reported by Reuters, US President Donald Trump is expected to deliver what he called a “major statement” on Russia on Monday, following his announcement that the US will send Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine.&nbsp;Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing Moscow of showing no genuine willingness to end its invasion of Ukraine and continuing bombardment of Ukrainian cities. According to Reuters, a bipartisan bill in the US Congress that would impose tougher sanctions on Russia gained momentum last week but still requires Trump’s backing to become law.&nbsp;Meanwhile, four European Union sources told Reuters that EU envoys are on the verge of approving an 18th sanctions package against Russia. This package would include lowering the price cap on Russian oil exports, tightening Moscow’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine.<h2>Market faces push and pull</h2>Even with geopolitical risks supporting prices, there are headwinds keeping the rally in check. As per Reuters, the International Energy Agency warned last week that the oil market might be tighter than it appears on the surface, with demand getting a lift from peak summer refinery runs and power generation needs. That dynamic helped Brent notch a three per cent weekly gain, with WTI up around 2.2 per cent.But there is significant supply-side noise. Analysts at ANZ, quoted by Reuters, highlighted data showing Saudi Arabia lifted its output above its agreed OPEC+ quota in June. The IEA estimated that Riyadh’s production reached 9.8 million barrels per day, surpassing its target by more than 400,000 bpd.&nbsp;Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry disputed that figure, telling Reuters on Friday it remained fully compliant with its voluntary target under the OPEC+ pact. It said Saudi-marketed crude supply in June was 9.352 million bpd, in line with the agreed quota.<h2>China’s imports surge but raise questions</h2>According to Reuters, China’s oil imports climbed 7.4 per cent in June from a year earlier to 49.89 million tonnes, around 12.14 million barrels per day, marking the highest daily rate since August 2023.&nbsp;While this jump in demand has offered some bullish signals for traders, not all see it as sustainable. Reuters cited J.P. Morgan analysts warning that with China’s storage facilities at 95 per cent of their peak 2020 levels, much of this inventory may soon appear in “visible” Western markets that set global benchmarks, putting downward pressure on prices.<h2>High stakes in the coming days</h2>For oil markets, the next few days could prove pivotal. As Reuters notes, Trump’s looming statement on Russia has the potential to reshape the sanctions landscape, possibly disrupting Moscow’s energy exports and tightening supply at a moment of fragile demand recovery. At the same time, questions over Saudi production discipline, tariff uncertainty in global trade, and the risk of Chinese stockpiles flooding export markets all threaten to cap gains.&nbsp;Investors are waiting for clarity from Washington, knowing that the interplay of geopolitics and market fundamentals in the coming weeks will likely set the tone for oil prices through the rest of 2025.&nbsp;

Oil prices edge higher on supply concerns ahead of Trump Russia sanctions statement, but rising Saudi output and Chinese stockpiles temper the rally.

Oil prices edged higher on Monday, extending last week’s gains, as traders kept watch for potential new sanctions on Russia from the United States that could disrupt global supply routes. But a mixed backdrop, including higher Saudi output and persistent tariff uncertainty kept investors cautious about the scale of any rally. According to Reuters, Brent crude futures rose to around $70.51 a barrel in early Asian trading, while US West Texas Intermediate crude was near $68.59. Both benchmarks had surged more than two per cent on Friday, buoyed by expectations of tighter summer demand. Spotlight on Trump’s Russia statement The market’s attention this week is firmly on Washington. As reported by Reuters, US President Donald Trump is expected to deliver what he called a “major statement” on Russia on Monday, following his announcement that the US will send Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine. Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with Russian President Vladimir Putin, accusing Moscow of showing no genuine willingness to end its invasion of Ukraine and continuing bombardment of Ukrainian cities. According to Reuters, a bipartisan bill in the US Congress that would impose tougher sanctions on Russia gained momentum last week but still requires Trump’s backing to become law. Meanwhile, four European Union sources told Reuters that EU envoys are on the verge of approving an 18th sanctions package against Russia. This package would include lowering the price cap on Russian oil exports, tightening Moscow’s ability to finance its war in Ukraine. Market faces push and pull Even with geopolitical risks supporting prices, there are headwinds keeping the rally in check. As per Reuters, the International Energy Agency warned last week that the oil market might be tighter than it appears on the surface, with demand getting a lift from peak summer refinery runs and power generation needs. That dynamic helped Brent notch a three per cent weekly gain, with WTI up around 2.2 per cent. But there is significant supply-side noise. Analysts at ANZ, quoted by Reuters, highlighted data showing Saudi Arabia lifted its output above its agreed OPEC+ quota in June. The IEA estimated that Riyadh’s production reached 9.8 million barrels per day, surpassing its target by more than 400,000 bpd. Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry disputed that figure, telling Reuters on Friday it remained fully compliant with its voluntary target under the OPEC+ pact. It said Saudi-marketed crude supply in June was 9.352 million bpd, in line with the agreed quota. China’s imports surge but raise questions According to Reuters, China’s oil imports climbed 7.4 per cent in June from a year earlier to 49.89 million tonnes, around 12.14 million barrels per day, marking the highest daily rate since August 2023. While this jump in demand has offered some bullish signals for traders, not all see it as sustainable. Reuters cited J.P. Morgan analysts warning that with China’s storage facilities at 95 per cent of their peak 2020 levels, much of this inventory may soon appear in “visible” Western markets that set global benchmarks, putting downward pressure on prices. High stakes in the coming days For oil markets, the next few days could prove pivotal. As Reuters notes, Trump’s looming statement on Russia has the potential to reshape the sanctions landscape, possibly disrupting Moscow’s energy exports and tightening supply at a moment of fragile demand recovery. At the same time, questions over Saudi production discipline, tariff uncertainty in global trade, and the risk of Chinese stockpiles flooding export markets all threaten to cap gains. Investors are waiting for clarity from Washington, knowing that the interplay of geopolitics and market fundamentals in the coming weeks will likely set the tone for oil prices through the rest of 2025.

Oil prices rose slightly as traders brace for a potential US sanctions announcement on Russia, but gains are capped by rising Saudi output and uncertain demand.

Oil prices inch up as markets await Trump’s next move on Russia

Oil prices held steady in early trading on July 11, after falling more than 2 per cent in the previous session. Markets are grappling with the impact of President Donald Trump's new tariff announcements and a downward revision of global oil demand by OPEC, raising concerns over future economic growth and oil consumption. Brent crude futures rose by 19 cents, or 0.28 per cent, to $68.83 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ticked up 26 cents, or 0.39 per cent, to $66.83 a barrel as of 0037 GMT.Trump’s announcement on July 10 that the US would impose a 35 per cent tariff on goods from Canada starting August 1, alongside plans for blanket tariffs of 15-20 per cent on most other trade partners, spooked markets. Investors are wary that these tariffs will dampen global economic growth, disrupting trade and driving up costs, which in turn could weaken demand for oil.Analysts believe that tariffs remain a potential drag on the market and could undermine industrial activity and travel, both key drivers of oil demand. Earlier in the day, President Trump also laid out plans for tariffs on imports from countries like Brazil, alongside duties on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, signalling more tension in international trade.<h2>OPEC+ cuts forecasts and supply outlook</h2>The latest concerns also stem from OPEC’s revised outlook on oil demand. On July 10, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2026-2029, citing weaker economic growth, particularly in China. OPEC now expects global oil demand to average 106.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, down from its previous forecast of 108 million bpd.While OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) are planning to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in August, reports suggest that the group may pause further production increases after September due to concerns about oversupply later in the year. This could result in a better-supplied market in the short term, but analysts believe the market could face surplus conditions by the fourth quarter.The combination of rising tariffs and OPEC’s reduced demand forecast has created a sense of uncertainty in the market, which is still digesting these developments. However, signs of tightness in the physical oil market and seasonal demand peaks during the Northern Hemisphere summer are providing some support to prices in the near term. As global markets continue to navigate these factors, oil prices are likely to remain volatile, with further fluctuations expected depending on developments in trade policies and OPEC’s production decisions.

Analysts believe that tariffs remain a potential drag on the market and could undermine industrial activity and travel, both key drivers of oil demand.

Oil prices held steady in early trading on July 11, after falling more than 2 per cent in the previous session. Markets are grappling with the impact of President Donald Trump's new tariff announcements and a downward revision of global oil demand by OPEC, raising concerns over future economic growth and oil consumption. Brent crude futures rose by 19 cents, or 0.28 per cent, to $68.83 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude ticked up 26 cents, or 0.39 per cent, to $66.83 a barrel as of 0037 GMT. Trump’s announcement on July 10 that the US would impose a 35 per cent tariff on goods from Canada starting August 1, alongside plans for blanket tariffs of 15-20 per cent on most other trade partners, spooked markets. Investors are wary that these tariffs will dampen global economic growth, disrupting trade and driving up costs, which in turn could weaken demand for oil. Analysts believe that tariffs remain a potential drag on the market and could undermine industrial activity and travel, both key drivers of oil demand. Earlier in the day, President Trump also laid out plans for tariffs on imports from countries like Brazil, alongside duties on copper, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, signalling more tension in international trade. OPEC+ cuts forecasts and supply outlook The latest concerns also stem from OPEC’s revised outlook on oil demand. On July 10, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2026-2029, citing weaker economic growth, particularly in China. OPEC now expects global oil demand to average 106.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, down from its previous forecast of 108 million bpd. While OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) are planning to increase production by 550,000 barrels per day in August, reports suggest that the group may pause further production increases after September due to concerns about oversupply later in the year. This could result in a better-supplied market in the short term, but analysts believe the market could face surplus conditions by the fourth quarter. The combination of rising tariffs and OPEC’s reduced demand forecast has created a sense of uncertainty in the market, which is still digesting these developments. However, signs of tightness in the physical oil market and seasonal demand peaks during the Northern Hemisphere summer are providing some support to prices in the near term. As global markets continue to navigate these factors, oil prices are likely to remain volatile, with further fluctuations expected depending on developments in trade policies and OPEC’s production decisions.

Analysts believe that tariffs remain a potential drag on the market and could undermine industrial activity and travel, both key drivers of oil demand.

Oil prices steady after losses, weighed by tariff threats and OPEC outlook

Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, retreating slightly from their strongest levels in two weeks, as investors weighed the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and its potential impact on global demand.<h2>Investors cautious ahead of new tariff deadline</h2>After a rally earlier in the week, traders hit pause while they monitored US President Donald Trump’s intensifying tariff rhetoric. According to Reuters, Brent crude futures fell 20 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $69.95 a barrel in early Wednesday trade, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 21 cents, or 0.4 per cent, to $68.12.&nbsp;Markets had been buoyed by hopes of resilient demand but turned cautious as Trump shifted his approach yet again. On Tuesday, the President pushed back a tariff deadline to 1 August, a date he described as “final,” insisting “no extensions will be granted,” as per Reuters.&nbsp;This delay offered some hope to major US trade partners such as Japan, South Korea, and the European Union that last-minute deals might ease the threatened duties. But it left other exporters, including South Africa, uncertain about their trading terms and wary of sudden policy shifts.<h2>Trump’s widening trade war rattles markets</h2>Trump’s tariff campaign is unsettling commodities markets well beyond oil. On Tuesday, he confirmed plans to impose a 50 per cent tariff on imported copper, a critical input for industries from electric vehicles to power grids. He also signalled that long-threatened tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals would soon follow, further broadening the trade conflict.&nbsp;&nbsp;According to Reuters, traders are worried that the escalating trade war could weigh on global economic growth and energy consumption by raising costs and disrupting supply chains.<h2>Demand hopes buoyed by US travel surge</h2>Despite these headwinds, some analysts see demand resilience in the near term. As per Reuters, strong travel demand around the 4th of July holiday weekend offered support to oil markets.Data from travel group AAA projected a record 72.2 million Americans would journey more than 50 miles (80 kilometres) over the holiday period, a sign of robust consumer activity that traders hope will underpin fuel demand even as the tariff debate rages.<h2>US oil production outlook softens</h2>On the supply side, the US government has trimmed its expectations for domestic production next year. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday it now projects 2025 US oil output at 13.37 million barrels per day, down slightly from last month’s forecast of 13.42 million barrels per day.&nbsp;According to Reuters, this downgrade reflects weaker oil prices prompting US producers to slow drilling activity this year. For 2026, the EIA maintained its forecast at 13.37 million barrels per day.<h2>OPEC+ weighs further output increases</h2>Global supply dynamics are also evolving. OPEC+ producers are set to approve another significant output increase for September, building on their decision to add 548,000 barrels per day in August as they unwind voluntary cuts.&nbsp;As per Reuters, five sources close to the talks said the group, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, is completing both the unwinding of cuts by eight members and accommodating the UAE’s higher quota. Yet analysts caution that the actual output boost so far has fallen short of the group’s official targets, with most new supply coming from Saudi Arabia.<h2>Geopolitical risks keep floor under prices</h2>Beyond trade tensions, geopolitical risks continue to lend support to oil markets by threatening supply security. According to Reuters, four seafarers were killed on Tuesday when a Liberian-flagged, Greek-operated bulk carrier was attacked with drones and speedboats off Yemen, the second such incident in a single day after months of relative calm.&nbsp;This flare-up in tensions highlights the fragile security environment in key shipping lanes, which traders see as a reason for caution in betting on deeper price declines. As the world watches Washington’s next moves on tariffs, energy markets are bracing for further volatility, balancing hopes of steady demand against the risk of trade disruptions and geopolitical shocks.

Crude benchmarks retreat as markets weigh President Trump shifting trade strategy, a looming August 1 tariff deadline, strong US travel demand, OPEC+ output plans, and renewed geopolitical risks off Yemen.

Oil prices edged lower on Wednesday, retreating slightly from their strongest levels in two weeks, as investors weighed the uncertainty surrounding US trade policy and its potential impact on global demand. Investors cautious ahead of new tariff deadline After a rally earlier in the week, traders hit pause while they monitored US President Donald Trump’s intensifying tariff rhetoric. According to Reuters, Brent crude futures fell 20 cents, or 0.3 per cent, to $69.95 a barrel in early Wednesday trade, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 21 cents, or 0.4 per cent, to $68.12. Markets had been buoyed by hopes of resilient demand but turned cautious as Trump shifted his approach yet again. On Tuesday, the President pushed back a tariff deadline to 1 August, a date he described as “final,” insisting “no extensions will be granted,” as per Reuters. This delay offered some hope to major US trade partners such as Japan, South Korea, and the European Union that last-minute deals might ease the threatened duties. But it left other exporters, including South Africa, uncertain about their trading terms and wary of sudden policy shifts. Trump’s widening trade war rattles markets Trump’s tariff campaign is unsettling commodities markets well beyond oil. On Tuesday, he confirmed plans to impose a 50 per cent tariff on imported copper, a critical input for industries from electric vehicles to power grids. He also signalled that long-threatened tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals would soon follow, further broadening the trade conflict. According to Reuters, traders are worried that the escalating trade war could weigh on global economic growth and energy consumption by raising costs and disrupting supply chains. Demand hopes buoyed by US travel surge Despite these headwinds, some analysts see demand resilience in the near term. As per Reuters, strong travel demand around the 4th of July holiday weekend offered support to oil markets. Data from travel group AAA projected a record 72.2 million Americans would journey more than 50 miles (80 kilometres) over the holiday period, a sign of robust consumer activity that traders hope will underpin fuel demand even as the tariff debate rages. US oil production outlook softens On the supply side, the US government has trimmed its expectations for domestic production next year. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday it now projects 2025 US oil output at 13.37 million barrels per day, down slightly from last month’s forecast of 13.42 million barrels per day. According to Reuters, this downgrade reflects weaker oil prices prompting US producers to slow drilling activity this year. For 2026, the EIA maintained its forecast at 13.37 million barrels per day. OPEC+ weighs further output increases Global supply dynamics are also evolving. OPEC+ producers are set to approve another significant output increase for September, building on their decision to add 548,000 barrels per day in August as they unwind voluntary cuts. As per Reuters, five sources close to the talks said the group, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, is completing both the unwinding of cuts by eight members and accommodating the UAE’s higher quota. Yet analysts caution that the actual output boost so far has fallen short of the group’s official targets, with most new supply coming from Saudi Arabia. Geopolitical risks keep floor under prices Beyond trade tensions, geopolitical risks continue to lend support to oil markets by threatening supply security. According to Reuters, four seafarers were killed on Tuesday when a Liberian-flagged, Greek-operated bulk carrier was attacked with drones and speedboats off Yemen, the second such incident in a single day after months of relative calm. This flare-up in tensions highlights the fragile security environment in key shipping lanes, which traders see as a reason for caution in betting on deeper price declines. As the world watches Washington’s next moves on tariffs, energy markets are bracing for further volatility, balancing hopes of steady demand against the risk of trade disruptions and geopolitical shocks.

Oil prices dip from two-week highs as traders await clarity on Trump’s tariff deadline amid rising global tensions.

Oil prices ease from two-week highs as markets await clarity on US tariffs

Oil prices fell more than 1 per cent on Monday after OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected production increase for August, fuelling fears of oversupply at a time when markets are already weighing the risks of slowing demand and economic uncertainty.&nbsp;According to Reuters, the group of oil producers, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia, agreed over the weekend to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month. That figure exceeds previous monthly increases and caught many traders off guard.<h2>Brent and WTI both under pressure</h2>Brent crude futures slipped 80 cents, or 1.2 per cent, to US$67.50 a barrel in early trading, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped by US$1.32, or 2 per cent, to US$65.68. Analysts said the announcement reflects OPEC+’s willingness to compete more aggressively for market share, even if that means accepting lower prices.&nbsp;“The increased production clearly represents a more aggressive competition for market share and some tolerance for the resulting decline in price and revenue,” said Tim Evans of Evans Energy in a note cited by Reuters.<h2>A significant jump from earlier targets</h2>The decision marks a notable acceleration in production growth. For comparison, OPEC+ had been adding around 411,000 bpd each month for May, June and July. The new target for August is a significant jump from those previous monthly increases and from the 138,000 bpd boost seen in April.OPEC+ justified the move by pointing to a steady global economic outlook and what it described as healthy market fundamentals, including relatively low oil inventories. According to Reuters, the group appears confident that demand can absorb the additional barrels despite lingering concerns over global economic conditions.<h2>Saudi Arabia signals demand confidence</h2>Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, underscored that confidence by raising the official selling price for its flagship Arab Light crude for August deliveries to Asia. Reuters reported this marks a four-month high for the grade, signalling Riyadh’s belief in robust demand from the region despite broader market jitters.&nbsp;Meanwhile, RBC Capital Markets analysts led by Helima Croft noted that nearly 80 per cent of the 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts pledged earlier by eight OPEC producers would effectively be reversed with the new decision. However, they also cautioned that in practice, much of the recent supply increases have come primarily from Saudi Arabia, while other members have struggled to ramp up production as planned.<h2>Looking ahead to September</h2>According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs analysts expect OPEC+ to confirm a final planned increase of about 550,000 bpd for September when the group next meets on 3 August. Markets will be watching closely to see whether the bloc sticks to its roadmap or adjusts strategy in response to price movements and demand signals.<h2>Wider backdrop of trade tensions</h2>Oil markets are also navigating the broader economic backdrop, including the prospect of renewed trade tensions as the US prepares to impose higher tariffs on many trading partners.&nbsp;As per Reuters, US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that several trade deals were close to being finalised and that letters would soon be sent to countries facing steeper tariff rates from 1 August, after a temporary pause ends on 9 July. The interplay between production policy, global demand forecasts and geopolitical trade tensions is expected to remain a key driver of oil prices in the weeks ahead.&nbsp;(With inputs from the agencies)&nbsp;

Brent and WTI crude fell sharply as OPEC+ announced a 548,000 bpd production boost for August, exceeding expectations and raising concerns over surplus and slowing demand in a volatile economic climate.

Oil prices fell more than 1 per cent on Monday after OPEC+ announced a larger-than-expected production increase for August, fuelling fears of oversupply at a time when markets are already weighing the risks of slowing demand and economic uncertainty. According to Reuters, the group of oil producers, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies led by Russia, agreed over the weekend to raise output by 548,000 barrels per day (bpd) next month. That figure exceeds previous monthly increases and caught many traders off guard. Brent and WTI both under pressure Brent crude futures slipped 80 cents, or 1.2 per cent, to US$67.50 a barrel in early trading, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped by US$1.32, or 2 per cent, to US$65.68. Analysts said the announcement reflects OPEC+’s willingness to compete more aggressively for market share, even if that means accepting lower prices. “The increased production clearly represents a more aggressive competition for market share and some tolerance for the resulting decline in price and revenue,” said Tim Evans of Evans Energy in a note cited by Reuters. A significant jump from earlier targets The decision marks a notable acceleration in production growth. For comparison, OPEC+ had been adding around 411,000 bpd each month for May, June and July. The new target for August is a significant jump from those previous monthly increases and from the 138,000 bpd boost seen in April. OPEC+ justified the move by pointing to a steady global economic outlook and what it described as healthy market fundamentals, including relatively low oil inventories. According to Reuters, the group appears confident that demand can absorb the additional barrels despite lingering concerns over global economic conditions. Saudi Arabia signals demand confidence Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, underscored that confidence by raising the official selling price for its flagship Arab Light crude for August deliveries to Asia. Reuters reported this marks a four-month high for the grade, signalling Riyadh’s belief in robust demand from the region despite broader market jitters. Meanwhile, RBC Capital Markets analysts led by Helima Croft noted that nearly 80 per cent of the 2.2 million bpd of voluntary cuts pledged earlier by eight OPEC producers would effectively be reversed with the new decision. However, they also cautioned that in practice, much of the recent supply increases have come primarily from Saudi Arabia, while other members have struggled to ramp up production as planned. Looking ahead to September According to Reuters, Goldman Sachs analysts expect OPEC+ to confirm a final planned increase of about 550,000 bpd for September when the group next meets on 3 August. Markets will be watching closely to see whether the bloc sticks to its roadmap or adjusts strategy in response to price movements and demand signals. Wider backdrop of trade tensions Oil markets are also navigating the broader economic backdrop, including the prospect of renewed trade tensions as the US prepares to impose higher tariffs on many trading partners. As per Reuters, US President Donald Trump said on Sunday that several trade deals were close to being finalised and that letters would soon be sent to countries facing steeper tariff rates from 1 August, after a temporary pause ends on 9 July. The interplay between production policy, global demand forecasts and geopolitical trade tensions is expected to remain a key driver of oil prices in the weeks ahead. (With inputs from the agencies)

Oil prices dropped over 1% after OPEC+ surprised markets with a bigger-than-expected output hike, stoking oversupply fears amid global demand uncertainty.

Oil prices slide as OPEC+ surprises with bigger August output hike

Oil prices slipped on Thursday after a strong rally in the previous session, as traders weighed the looming threat of higher US tariffs, signs of faltering demand in major economies, and expectations that OPEC+ will announce an output increase at its upcoming meeting. According to Reuters, Brent crude futures fell 45 cents, or 0.65 per cent, to $68.66 a barrel by 0645 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 44 cents, or 0.66 per cent, to $67.01 a barrel.&nbsp;The losses follow a roughly 3 per cent surge on Wednesday, when prices hit their highest level in a week. That rally was driven by geopolitical jitters after Iran suspended cooperation with the United Nations nuclear watchdog, fuelling fears the long-running dispute over its nuclear programme could spiral into armed conflict. Additionally, a preliminary trade deal between the US and Vietnam offered some support to sentiment.<h2>Tariff uncertainty clouds demand outlook</h2>However, attention has now turned back to the uncertain outlook for global demand, with traders wary of fresh tariff risks. As per Reuters, the US is nearing the end of a 90-day pause on higher tariffs, which is set to expire on 9 July. Without new trade agreements in place with major partners such as the European Union and Japan, there is growing concern that Washington could reimpose steeper duties.&nbsp;Analysts fear such a move could slow global trade and dampen fuel demand. ING analysts, cited by Reuters, noted that with both the tariff deadline and the US Independence Day holiday weekend approaching, many market participants will be reluctant to maintain large positions, reducing appetite for risk.<h2>OPEC+ expected to raise output</h2>The production outlook is also weighing on prices. According to Reuters, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+—are widely expected to agree to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day at their meeting this weekend.&nbsp;Such an increase would add to global supply at a time when demand signals are already flashing warnings, potentially putting further pressure on prices in the weeks ahead.<h2>Demand concerns deepen on China, US data</h2>Reuters also reported that demand worries were compounded on Thursday by weaker-than-expected economic data out of China, the world’s biggest oil importer. A private-sector survey showed service-sector activity in China expanded at its slowest pace in nine months in June, with domestic demand weakening and new export orders declining.&nbsp;Meanwhile, in the US, the world’s largest crude consumer, official data revealed a surprise build in inventories last week. The Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose by 3.80 million barrels to 419 million barrels, defying analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a drawdown of 1.80 million barrels. Weekly gasoline demand also fell to 8.6 million barrels per day, raising fresh concerns about consumption during the peak US summer driving season.<h2>Eyes on US jobs data, Fed outlook</h2>Traders are also awaiting key economic data to gauge the health of the US economy and the likely path of interest rates. Reuters noted that markets are keenly watching Thursday’s release of the US monthly employment report, which could help shape expectations around the depth and timing of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year.&nbsp;Lower interest rates could stimulate economic activity, which would be expected to support oil demand. However, signs of a cooling labour market may complicate that outlook. A private payrolls report released on Wednesday showed a contraction for the first time in two years, though analysts cautioned there is no direct correlation with the government’s official data.

Crude prices slip after a brief rally, pressured by weak China and US demand data, looming US tariff hikes, and anticipated OPEC+ supply increases.

Oil prices slipped on Thursday after a strong rally in the previous session, as traders weighed the looming threat of higher US tariffs, signs of faltering demand in major economies, and expectations that OPEC+ will announce an output increase at its upcoming meeting. According to Reuters, Brent crude futures fell 45 cents, or 0.65 per cent, to $68.66 a barrel by 0645 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 44 cents, or 0.66 per cent, to $67.01 a barrel. The losses follow a roughly 3 per cent surge on Wednesday, when prices hit their highest level in a week. That rally was driven by geopolitical jitters after Iran suspended cooperation with the United Nations nuclear watchdog, fuelling fears the long-running dispute over its nuclear programme could spiral into armed conflict. Additionally, a preliminary trade deal between the US and Vietnam offered some support to sentiment. Tariff uncertainty clouds demand outlook However, attention has now turned back to the uncertain outlook for global demand, with traders wary of fresh tariff risks. As per Reuters, the US is nearing the end of a 90-day pause on higher tariffs, which is set to expire on 9 July. Without new trade agreements in place with major partners such as the European Union and Japan, there is growing concern that Washington could reimpose steeper duties. Analysts fear such a move could slow global trade and dampen fuel demand. ING analysts, cited by Reuters, noted that with both the tariff deadline and the US Independence Day holiday weekend approaching, many market participants will be reluctant to maintain large positions, reducing appetite for risk. OPEC+ expected to raise output The production outlook is also weighing on prices. According to Reuters, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, including Russia, collectively known as OPEC+—are widely expected to agree to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day at their meeting this weekend. Such an increase would add to global supply at a time when demand signals are already flashing warnings, potentially putting further pressure on prices in the weeks ahead. Demand concerns deepen on China, US data Reuters also reported that demand worries were compounded on Thursday by weaker-than-expected economic data out of China, the world’s biggest oil importer. A private-sector survey showed service-sector activity in China expanded at its slowest pace in nine months in June, with domestic demand weakening and new export orders declining. Meanwhile, in the US, the world’s largest crude consumer, official data revealed a surprise build in inventories last week. The Energy Information Administration said crude stocks rose by 3.80 million barrels to 419 million barrels, defying analyst expectations in a Reuters poll for a drawdown of 1.80 million barrels. Weekly gasoline demand also fell to 8.6 million barrels per day, raising fresh concerns about consumption during the peak US summer driving season. Eyes on US jobs data, Fed outlook Traders are also awaiting key economic data to gauge the health of the US economy and the likely path of interest rates. Reuters noted that markets are keenly watching Thursday’s release of the US monthly employment report, which could help shape expectations around the depth and timing of potential Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Lower interest rates could stimulate economic activity, which would be expected to support oil demand. However, signs of a cooling labour market may complicate that outlook. A private payrolls report released on Wednesday showed a contraction for the first time in two years, though analysts cautioned there is no direct correlation with the government’s official data.

Oil prices dip as demand concerns, US tariff risks, and expectations of an OPEC+ output hike offset geopolitical tensions.

Oil prices slip as US tariff deadline, OPEC+ output hike loom

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