Prime Minister Narendra Modi exclusively talks to Zee Media. During the interview PM Modi said that he have special connection with the people of West Bengal. Watch video to know more.

Exclusive: PM Modi speaks on Bengal Violence

Friday marks the last day of campaigning for the seventh and final phase of Lok Sabha election 2019. Today, Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed a rally in Khargone, Madhya Pradesh. Watch this video to know more.

PM Modi addresses mega rally in Madhya Pradesh

West Bengal has become the final battleground in the showdown between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the opposition. Prime Minister Narendra Modi in an election rally on Friday promised to rebuild Vidyasagar statue which was vandalized during BJP President Amit Shah’s roadshow in Kolkata. Watch this video to know more.

PM Narendra Modi promises to rebuild Vidyasagar statue

A roadshow of BJP national president Amit Shah was attacked in Kolkata. &nbsp;Priyanka Sharma, an activist of BJP’s youth wing, is arrested in Kolkata for making a meme of Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee. Journalists are heckled during election coverage in Asansol and the body of an opposition party activist is found hanging from a tree in Midnapore.

These are only some of the many incidents that signal that all is not well with democracy in the Mamata Banerjee-ruled West Bengal. The ‘Mamata model of politics’, it seems, has no room for opposition, media and free speech.

An Election Commission observer in West Bengal, Ajay Nayak, has said on record that the situation in Bengal is worse than what it was in Bihar 15 years ago. He suggested that more central forces were required in the state to ensure free and fair elections.

Over the last few phases of the general elections, more central forces have been deployed in the state, but with their presence restricted to polling booths. With the state police remaining truculent, the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) activists are on the rampage.&nbsp;

Polling officers — usually state government employees — fear the wrath of the Mamata government if they don’t act in favour of her party.&nbsp;

Several videos have surfaced where TMC activists are seen casting votes under the pretext of helping voters, with the polling officers looking on sheepishly.

Mamata has gone on record saying that she will have her revenge inch-by-inch after the elections. Terrified, helpless and cheated by the current TMC government, the voters are silent. But, masked in their silence, a greater change is afoot. Opposition parties have accused the TMC of giving shelter to anarchist elements and using foul means to garner votes.&nbsp;

The BJP has emerged as the principal opposition party after the panchayat elections and most activists who have bled in the wake of political violence are from the BJP.&nbsp;

A few months ago in the panchayat elections, too, the TMC had created a similar environment of terror. So much so that the high court had to allow opposition candidates to file nomination via email and WhatsApp, as they could not make it to the nomination centres in the wake of violence unleashed by TMC activists.&nbsp;

Opposition candidates, who eventually won the panchayat election, could not return home fearing violence. More than 50 BJP activists lost their lives during these panchayat elections.

This environment of political violence unfolding in Bengal is a legacy of the Left Front government that ruled the state for 34 years and which Mamata had opposed and uprooted.&nbsp;

In 2011, the Mamata government was formed with the slogan of ‘ma, mati, manush’ (mother, motherland, people). At that time Mamata stood for the farmers of Nandigram and Singur, where the CPM-led Left Front had used violence to suppress voices.&nbsp;

Today, Mamata’s line of political thought panders to the state’s nearly 30 per cent Muslim population, of which many are illegal Bangladeshis.&nbsp;

Therefore, it stems from this that in a matriarchal society like Bengal, there were reports of Kali Pooja, Durga Pooja and Saraswati Pooja being stalled to respect the sentiments of a community.&nbsp;

In 2017, Durga idol immersion was stalled for two days by the administration on account of Muharram. Last year, processions on Hanuman Jayanti were stopped and vandalised as the police stood mute witness.

What started with ‘ma, mati, manush’ in 2008-2009 has now clearly been reduced to ‘Mamata, Muslims and Muharram’, with Hindus and their symbols becoming soft targets and Muslim appeasement politics touching a new low.

It is clear Mamata has chosen her politics to garner Muslim support. On several occasions, she has spoken in favour of illegal Bangladeshi migrants too. In the ongoing general elections, Bangladeshi actors were called in to campaign for TMC candidates.&nbsp;

Today, appeasement, extortion and illegal migration have emerged as the most important issues that have left an average Bengali troubled. Ranging from the Bhadralok of Kolkata to the rural population of Midnapore – the disquiet over TMC’s strong arm appeasement, extortion and support of illegal migrants is palpable.&nbsp;

The weakened Congress and the CPM are in no position to offer an alternative to TMC’s politics. As a result, a large section of voters are now looking to BJP for help and support. This was why the BJP won several seats in the Bengal panchayat election.&nbsp;

Instead of countering allegations, Mamata has gone further into the deep end by using the power at her disposal to silence resistance.&nbsp;

Little does she realise that by not allowing the helicopters of Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath to land for political rallies, she’s only validating their claim on the electorate.

Earlier this month, when a group of youth chanted ‘Joy Shri Ram’ (read Jai Shri Ram) as Mamata’s cavalcade passed by, the CM lost her cool. She stopped her vehicle and threatened them with dire consequences.&nbsp;

The events of the last few years have created a background and environment where people are fed up with the Mamata administration and for them, the enchanting of ‘Joy Shri Ram’ has emerged as a slogan of resistance against the Trinamool model of politics where there is no space and scope for other voices.

The land of Aurobindo, Vivekanand, Subhash Bose and Shyama Prasad Mukherjee will not tolerate this.&nbsp;

&nbsp;(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-tmc-the-land-of-holy-terror-2749609">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

 
&nbsp;

A roadshow of BJP national president Amit Shah was attacked in Kolkata. Priyanka Sharma, an activist of BJP’s youth wing, is arrested in Kolkata for making a meme of Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee.

A roadshow of BJP national president Amit Shah was attacked in Kolkata. Priyanka Sharma, an activist of BJP’s youth wing, is arrested in Kolkata for making a meme of Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee. Journalists are heckled during election coverage in Asansol and the body of an opposition party activist is found hanging from a tree in Midnapore. These are only some of the many incidents that signal that all is not well with democracy in the Mamata Banerjee-ruled West Bengal. The ‘Mamata model of politics’, it seems, has no room for opposition, media and free speech. An Election Commission observer in West Bengal, Ajay Nayak, has said on record that the situation in Bengal is worse than what it was in Bihar 15 years ago. He suggested that more central forces were required in the state to ensure free and fair elections. Over the last few phases of the general elections, more central forces have been deployed in the state, but with their presence restricted to polling booths. With the state police remaining truculent, the All India Trinamool Congress (TMC) activists are on the rampage. Polling officers — usually state government employees — fear the wrath of the Mamata government if they don’t act in favour of her party. Several videos have surfaced where TMC activists are seen casting votes under the pretext of helping voters, with the polling officers looking on sheepishly. Mamata has gone on record saying that she will have her revenge inch-by-inch after the elections. Terrified, helpless and cheated by the current TMC government, the voters are silent. But, masked in their silence, a greater change is afoot. Opposition parties have accused the TMC of giving shelter to anarchist elements and using foul means to garner votes. The BJP has emerged as the principal opposition party after the panchayat elections and most activists who have bled in the wake of political violence are from the BJP. A few months ago in the panchayat elections, too, the TMC had created a similar environment of terror. So much so that the high court had to allow opposition candidates to file nomination via email and WhatsApp, as they could not make it to the nomination centres in the wake of violence unleashed by TMC activists. Opposition candidates, who eventually won the panchayat election, could not return home fearing violence. More than 50 BJP activists lost their lives during these panchayat elections. This environment of political violence unfolding in Bengal is a legacy of the Left Front government that ruled the state for 34 years and which Mamata had opposed and uprooted. In 2011, the Mamata government was formed with the slogan of ‘ma, mati, manush’ (mother, motherland, people). At that time Mamata stood for the farmers of Nandigram and Singur, where the CPM-led Left Front had used violence to suppress voices. Today, Mamata’s line of political thought panders to the state’s nearly 30 per cent Muslim population, of which many are illegal Bangladeshis. Therefore, it stems from this that in a matriarchal society like Bengal, there were reports of Kali Pooja, Durga Pooja and Saraswati Pooja being stalled to respect the sentiments of a community. In 2017, Durga idol immersion was stalled for two days by the administration on account of Muharram. Last year, processions on Hanuman Jayanti were stopped and vandalised as the police stood mute witness. What started with ‘ma, mati, manush’ in 2008-2009 has now clearly been reduced to ‘Mamata, Muslims and Muharram’, with Hindus and their symbols becoming soft targets and Muslim appeasement politics touching a new low. It is clear Mamata has chosen her politics to garner Muslim support. On several occasions, she has spoken in favour of illegal Bangladeshi migrants too. In the ongoing general elections, Bangladeshi actors were called in to campaign for TMC candidates. Today, appeasement, extortion and illegal migration have emerged as the most important issues that have left an average Bengali troubled. Ranging from the Bhadralok of Kolkata to the rural population of Midnapore – the disquiet over TMC’s strong arm appeasement, extortion and support of illegal migrants is palpable. The weakened Congress and the CPM are in no position to offer an alternative to TMC’s politics. As a result, a large section of voters are now looking to BJP for help and support. This was why the BJP won several seats in the Bengal panchayat election. Instead of countering allegations, Mamata has gone further into the deep end by using the power at her disposal to silence resistance. Little does she realise that by not allowing the helicopters of Amit Shah and Yogi Adityanath to land for political rallies, she’s only validating their claim on the electorate. Earlier this month, when a group of youth chanted ‘Joy Shri Ram’ (read Jai Shri Ram) as Mamata’s cavalcade passed by, the CM lost her cool. She stopped her vehicle and threatened them with dire consequences. The events of the last few years have created a background and environment where people are fed up with the Mamata administration and for them, the enchanting of ‘Joy Shri Ram’ has emerged as a slogan of resistance against the Trinamool model of politics where there is no space and scope for other voices. The land of Aurobindo, Vivekanand, Subhash Bose and Shyama Prasad Mukherjee will not tolerate this. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

‘Mamata model of politics’ has no room for opposition and free speech

In this segment of India Election Watch, Know The story of Vidyasagar. Watch this video to know more.

India Election Watch: The story of Vidyasagar

In this segment of India Election Watch, Know will soft Hindutva help Congress? Watch this video to know more.

India Election Watch: Will soft Hindutva help Congress?

Look across the political and electoral spectrum in India, and try to identify mass leaders. By definition, they should be strong, stand alone types, capable of rousing people with stirring speeches, which could include filling up New Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan, Patna’s Gandhi Maidan, the Marina in Chennai, Azad Park in Mumbai or the numerous grounds that are used for political rallies throughout the land. &nbsp;

It comes as sobering realisation that beyond a clutch of leading politicians –and they can be counted on the fingers –the breed of mass leaders have virtually disappeared in this country.&nbsp;

Outside of Narendra Modi, Mamata Banerjee, Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav of the old, and Navin Patnaik, there are not many who qualify for this distinction. &nbsp;

To be sure, south India has its quota of mass leaders in Chandrababu Naidu, K Chandrasekar Rao and VS Achuthanandan, who represents the once-hoary Left tradition, but beyond their own bailiffs and states, they rarely so much as venture out even in peak election time.&nbsp;

In other words, the mass leaders of the yesteryears - the Nehrus, Lohias, Vajpayees, the Left stalwarts, MGR and Karunanidhis and several others before them, are now a thing of the past.&nbsp;

It is revealing to ask why it has panned out this way. After all, a vibrant multi-party democracy like India should have been brimming with orators, flamboyant mass leaders and stalwarts who could have generally made a difference. Remember, there are a total of 1,841 parties registered with the Election Commission of India, of which seven are national parties, as many as 52 state parties and incredibly, 1,785 unrecognised parties, making India a democracy without a parallel.&nbsp;

Yet, there are not more than a dozen politicians who can stand up and hold the attention of a million people for an hour, in a country of 900- million plus voters. &nbsp;&nbsp;

The roots of this anomaly lie in the country’s deep-seated feudal politics, never mind the copious lip service to democracy and other such western concepts. &nbsp;

The Congress, which could boast of several mass leaders in the course of the freedom struggle, who could and did sway people towards non-cooperation and other forms of protest against British rule, slowly started to disappear from public life as it gradually settled into the role of the ruling party.

Jawaharlal Nehru’s period was not bereft of such stalwarts. BC Roy in Bengal, Pratap Singh Kairon in Punjab, SK Sinha in Bihar and Gobind Ballabh Pant in UP, were among the leaders who dominated the political spectrum in the provinces, along with several other independence-era stalwarts like Maulana Abul Kalam Azad, CD Deshmukh and Jagjivan Ram, who held fort at the Centre.

The rot can be traced to the Indira Gandhi period in the late 1960s and early 1970s, when every single leader of any consequence, beginning with K Kamaraj, was shafted out of the Congress system and the political networks, quite systematically and ruthlessly.&nbsp;

Things reached such a pass by the late 1970s that there was little scope for any mass leader to have any place in a political system dominated by the Congress. Stalwart chief ministers were replaced by family minions, who had no mass base nor any support among state MLAs, which until then was the principle criterion for selecting chief ministers.&nbsp;

In fact, it became a liability to be a mass leader and an asset to be a political lightweight, as it opened the doors of political office. &nbsp;

Even today, the Congress is paying the price. One of the main reasons for their political decimation is the absence of any popular leader outside of the Gandhi-Nehru family, whose fading aura has coincided with the corresponding rise of the BJP.&nbsp;

The all powerful, overbearing and dominant Congress culture took its toll across the political spectrum. Political parties, as a rule, began to look for ways to whittle down any leader of promise, who could become a potential challenger, making sure that he or she was sent to oblivion.

So by the 1980s and 1990s, the leaders who did manage to build a bridge with the masses, did so by default and through sheer happenstance. Mamata Banerjee, for instance, fought her way up the Youth Congress ladder because she got the opportunities and was willing to take her chances, and not because of any encouragement provided to her from any political quarter. &nbsp;

Similarly, Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Nitish Kumar found the JP movement in the mid-1970s as their ladder to establish themselves as leaders of consequence. There was no question of anyone encouraging them to reach where they did, except their own reflexes, instincts and guile.&nbsp;

Down south in Tamil Nadu, the likes of MGR, Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha used the powerful Tamil film movement to make their presence felt and gradually but steadily, expanded their mass base.&nbsp;

But having reached the positions that they did, these politicians turned out to be no different. Parties that they headed became family enterprises (save Nitish), where no outsider, let alone a mass leader, was ever going to be encouraged.&nbsp;

Things have remained that way. Why, even today, the country’s most important political entity, the BJP, cannot boast of one single popular national leader outside of Narendra Modi. While the dynamics of a cadre-based party like the BJP or the Left are entirely different, for one reason or the other, they too have failed to produce a leader, whose writ runs large through the length and breadth of the Indian republic.&nbsp;

&nbsp;(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the<a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-only-followers-needed-here-please-2749305"> original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

Look across the political and electoral spectrum in India, and try to identify mass leaders. By definition, they should be strong, stand alone types, capable of rousing people with stirring speeches, which could include filling up New Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan, Patna’s Gandhi Maidan, the Marina in Chennai, Azad Park in Mumbai or the numerous grounds that are used for political rallies throughout the land.

Look across the political and electoral spectrum in India, and try to identify mass leaders. By definition, they should be strong, stand alone types, capable of rousing people with stirring speeches, which could include filling up New Delhi’s Ramlila Maidan, Patna’s Gandhi Maidan, the Marina in Chennai, Azad Park in Mumbai or the numerous grounds that are used for political rallies throughout the land. It comes as sobering realisation that beyond a clutch of leading politicians –and they can be counted on the fingers –the breed of mass leaders have virtually disappeared in this country. Outside of Narendra Modi, Mamata Banerjee, Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav of the old, and Navin Patnaik, there are not many who qualify for this distinction. To be sure, south India has its quota of mass leaders in Chandrababu Naidu, K Chandrasekar Rao and VS Achuthanandan, who represents the once-hoary Left tradition, but beyond their own bailiffs and states, they rarely so much as venture out even in peak election time. In other words, the mass leaders of the yesteryears - the Nehrus, Lohias, Vajpayees, the Left stalwarts, MGR and Karunanidhis and several others before them, are now a thing of the past. It is revealing to ask why it has panned out this way. After all, a vibrant multi-party democracy like India should have been brimming with orators, flamboyant mass leaders and stalwarts who could have generally made a difference. Remember, there are a total of 1,841 parties registered with the Election Commission of India, of which seven are national parties, as many as 52 state parties and incredibly, 1,785 unrecognised parties, making India a democracy without a parallel. Yet, there are not more than a dozen politicians who can stand up and hold the attention of a million people for an hour, in a country of 900- million plus voters. The roots of this anomaly lie in the country’s deep-seated feudal politics, never mind the copious lip service to democracy and other such western concepts. The Congress, which could boast of several mass leaders in the course of the freedom struggle, who could and did sway people towards non-cooperation and other forms of protest against British rule, slowly started to disappear from public life as it gradually settled into the role of the ruling party. Jawaharlal Nehru’s period was not bereft of such stalwarts. BC Roy in Bengal, Pratap Singh Kairon in Punjab, SK Sinha in Bihar and Gobind Ballabh Pant in UP, were among the leaders who dominated the political spectrum in the provinces, along with several other independence-era stalwarts like Maulana Abul Kalam Azad, CD Deshmukh and Jagjivan Ram, who held fort at the Centre. The rot can be traced to the Indira Gandhi period in the late 1960s and early 1970s, when every single leader of any consequence, beginning with K Kamaraj, was shafted out of the Congress system and the political networks, quite systematically and ruthlessly. Things reached such a pass by the late 1970s that there was little scope for any mass leader to have any place in a political system dominated by the Congress. Stalwart chief ministers were replaced by family minions, who had no mass base nor any support among state MLAs, which until then was the principle criterion for selecting chief ministers. In fact, it became a liability to be a mass leader and an asset to be a political lightweight, as it opened the doors of political office. Even today, the Congress is paying the price. One of the main reasons for their political decimation is the absence of any popular leader outside of the Gandhi-Nehru family, whose fading aura has coincided with the corresponding rise of the BJP. The all powerful, overbearing and dominant Congress culture took its toll across the political spectrum. Political parties, as a rule, began to look for ways to whittle down any leader of promise, who could become a potential challenger, making sure that he or she was sent to oblivion. So by the 1980s and 1990s, the leaders who did manage to build a bridge with the masses, did so by default and through sheer happenstance. Mamata Banerjee, for instance, fought her way up the Youth Congress ladder because she got the opportunities and was willing to take her chances, and not because of any encouragement provided to her from any political quarter. Similarly, Lalu Yadav, Mulayam Singh Yadav and Nitish Kumar found the JP movement in the mid-1970s as their ladder to establish themselves as leaders of consequence. There was no question of anyone encouraging them to reach where they did, except their own reflexes, instincts and guile. Down south in Tamil Nadu, the likes of MGR, Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha used the powerful Tamil film movement to make their presence felt and gradually but steadily, expanded their mass base. But having reached the positions that they did, these politicians turned out to be no different. Parties that they headed became family enterprises (save Nitish), where no outsider, let alone a mass leader, was ever going to be encouraged. Things have remained that way. Why, even today, the country’s most important political entity, the BJP, cannot boast of one single popular national leader outside of Narendra Modi. While the dynamics of a cadre-based party like the BJP or the Left are entirely different, for one reason or the other, they too have failed to produce a leader, whose writ runs large through the length and breadth of the Indian republic. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

India only has a few politicians who can be called mass leaders

Mamata Banerjee is, undoubtedly, a fierce leader who has ruled West Bengal for quite a long time now. She has taken the BJP head-on in this election and has been instrumental in uniting all like-minded Opposition parties to take on the Saffron party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

However, her dominance&nbsp;has done evident harm to the prospects of 'Mahagathbandhan'.&nbsp;Didi&nbsp;is considered to be the main reason behind Congress president Rahul Gandhi not being declared the prime ministerial candidate of the united opposition despite approvals from several leaders. She wants to be in the driver seat herself.

Mamata doesn't mince words while attacking the ruling party and its leaders. The friction between Didi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has escalated this election. She declared that TMC will lead in throwing out the NDA government from power and forming the new government at the Centre.

She termed Modi as 'dictator' and 'expiry PM'. The West Bengal chief minister, who accuses the Modi government of being fascist in nature, used her power to get a 25-year-oldBJP activist&nbsp;arrested for posting a meme on her.

The meme was harmless and funny that showed Mamata Banerjee's face fixed on Priyanka Chopra picture from the Met Gala event. Legal experts say neither the meme was obscene nor explicit in nature. Priyanka Sharma's counsel Neeraj Kishen Paul pointed out, and rightly so, that meme is a form of “evolving caricature, humour and political satire”.

The Supreme Court granted bail to BJP worker Priyanka Sharma on Tuesday. However, the activist was forced to stay in the custody despite having bail been granted 18 hours earlier. Following the delay in her release, the top court on Wednesday termed the activist's arrest as "Prima facie arbitrary” and censured the West Bengal government and the police.

After her release, Priyanka told the media persons that she was forced to sign an apology by the police, saying that she won't post such memes again.

The clampdown on voices critical of the West Bengal government is not new.&nbsp;

In March, the chief minister faced backlash after a political satire was withdrawn from theatres by the state government. The movie was slightly critical of Mamata. The Supreme Court had to intervene in that matter and direct the state government to ensure a smooth run of the movie 'Bhobishyoter Bhoot' across the state. The top court also imposed a fine of Rs 20 lakh on the state government.

In 2012, a professor of Javadpur University, Professor Mahapatra and his neighbour, were arrested for posting on social media a cartoon of Mamata Banerjee. The professor was also assaulted allegedly by TMC workers.

It's hypocritical of the West Bengal chief minister to portray herself as an ambassador of 'free speech' and accuse&nbsp;the BJP of being fascist when she herself gets people arrested over cartoons and memes.

Cartoons and movies are a medium of expression in a democracy which Mamata Banerjee is yet to understand. TMC's crackdown on freedom speech is, indeed, alarming. Didi may disagree but can't be autocratic.

 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp;

Mamata Banerjee is, undoubtedly, a fierce leader who has ruled West Bengal for quite a long time now. She has taken the BJP head-on in this election and has been instrumental in uniting all like-minded Opposition parties to take on the Saffron party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

Mamata Banerjee is, undoubtedly, a fierce leader who has ruled West Bengal for quite a long time now. She has taken the BJP head-on in this election and has been instrumental in uniting all like-minded Opposition parties to take on the Saffron party and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. However, her dominance has done evident harm to the prospects of 'Mahagathbandhan'. Didi is considered to be the main reason behind Congress president Rahul Gandhi not being declared the prime ministerial candidate of the united opposition despite approvals from several leaders. She wants to be in the driver seat herself. Mamata doesn't mince words while attacking the ruling party and its leaders. The friction between Didi and Prime Minister Narendra Modi has escalated this election. She declared that TMC will lead in throwing out the NDA government from power and forming the new government at the Centre. She termed Modi as 'dictator' and 'expiry PM'. The West Bengal chief minister, who accuses the Modi government of being fascist in nature, used her power to get a 25-year-oldBJP activist arrested for posting a meme on her. The meme was harmless and funny that showed Mamata Banerjee's face fixed on Priyanka Chopra picture from the Met Gala event. Legal experts say neither the meme was obscene nor explicit in nature. Priyanka Sharma's counsel Neeraj Kishen Paul pointed out, and rightly so, that meme is a form of “evolving caricature, humour and political satire”. The Supreme Court granted bail to BJP worker Priyanka Sharma on Tuesday. However, the activist was forced to stay in the custody despite having bail been granted 18 hours earlier. Following the delay in her release, the top court on Wednesday termed the activist's arrest as "Prima facie arbitrary” and censured the West Bengal government and the police. After her release, Priyanka told the media persons that she was forced to sign an apology by the police, saying that she won't post such memes again. The clampdown on voices critical of the West Bengal government is not new. In March, the chief minister faced backlash after a political satire was withdrawn from theatres by the state government. The movie was slightly critical of Mamata. The Supreme Court had to intervene in that matter and direct the state government to ensure a smooth run of the movie 'Bhobishyoter Bhoot' across the state. The top court also imposed a fine of Rs 20 lakh on the state government. In 2012, a professor of Javadpur University, Professor Mahapatra and his neighbour, were arrested for posting on social media a cartoon of Mamata Banerjee. The professor was also assaulted allegedly by TMC workers. It's hypocritical of the West Bengal chief minister to portray herself as an ambassador of 'free speech' and accuse the BJP of being fascist when she herself gets people arrested over cartoons and memes. Cartoons and movies are a medium of expression in a democracy which Mamata Banerjee is yet to understand. TMC's crackdown on freedom speech is, indeed, alarming. Didi may disagree but can't be autocratic. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Mamata Banerjee meme row: The alternative to democracy is autocracy

Six out of seven phases are over for Lok Sabha elections, 2019. The fate of candidates in 90 per cent of the Parliament strength has been sealed.&nbsp;

Ground feedback, journalists and commentators differ in opinions on who is leading at the end of Phase six.

Some opinions are also coloured by their respective ideologies. Many experts claim there is a significant undercurrent, but are hesitant to call out the election outcome. The Indian voter is smart and is likely to have the last laugh on May 23, the day of the results. &nbsp;

While this election is being touted as wave-less, the 2014 verdict was clear from the onset. UPA-2, reeling under scams and a mega onslaught by Narendra Modi, was predicted to lose.&nbsp;

A year ago (in 2018), 2019 elections was a done deal. Rahul and Congress were preparing for 2024. A setback in Karnataka and losses in three Hindi heartland states put the BJP on the back foot.&nbsp;

Most opinion polls predicted a hung assembly in December 2018 and January 2019. Then in the aftermath of Pulwama and air strike 2.0, NDA’s fortunes revived. &nbsp;

The last of the polls showed NDA a few seats short of majority in April 2019. The fortunes of alliances have been swinging like a pendulum with NDA clearly ahead of others. While the BJP-led alliance is aiming to get to a majority, UPA and others are aiming to beat the NDA.&nbsp;

Many factors affect the voting behaviour of an individual. For some voters, issues are very important while for others, leadership matters; there are also those who back a particular candidate, caste, performance of government, ideology and whether he/she is a beneficiary of government scheme or not, among other motivating factors. &nbsp;&nbsp;

Also, it may not just be one factor but a combination of factors that affects voting behaviour.&nbsp;

Unemployment, corruption, price rise, farm distress and development are subjects, which feature regularly in the top 5 issues across elections in India.

While during the 2014 elections, price rise and corruption were the top 2 issues, in 2009 it was unemployment and price rise. Issues alone may not be the sole determinant of election outcomes.&nbsp;

As I travel across the country in my profession as a political consultant, many people ask me who will win the 2019 elections. For me the biggest question of 2019 election is, when one goes to vote, is he/she voting to elect a Prime Minister or elect a Member of Parliament?

In India, elections are increasingly becoming a presidential style. If more and more people go out and vote to elect a PM, BJP has the advantage. If more and more people go out and vote to elect their local representative, then it is advantage opposition, as BJP has most MPs and will have to bear the brunt of non-performance of some of them.&nbsp;

Modi’s persona has helped BJP attain a simple majority on its own, in 2014, a feat accomplished after 30 years.&nbsp;

The Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) carried out a National Election Study 2014, which asked respondents, “While voting some people give importance to the local candidate, others to the state-level leadership of the party and some others to the prime ministerial candidate. How would you describe yourself?”&nbsp;

About 28 per cent voters gave importance to PM candidate and 26 per cent to the local candidate. The PM candidate was the topmost issue. What is this percentage likely to be in 2019, will determine the end results.&nbsp;

Modi’s popularity is still intact and this is even acknowledged by his detractors.&nbsp;

A middle-aged Uber driver in Delhi tells me he has a voter ID in Aligarh. He voted and believes that BJP is winning from there. The vote is not for the candidate, but for Modi.

From relatives in Bihar to voters in Bhubaneswar to cab drivers in Shimla, most people believe Modi is the panacea of most ills: from taking on poverty to teaching Pakistan a lesson. They also believe that while state governments could be different, at the Centre there is only Modi who can deliver the goods. &nbsp;&nbsp;

On Facebook live of Lallan Top, a popular online news portal, whose reporters are travelling through the length and breadth of Uttar Pradesh, many people on camera have been heard saying, “If there was no Modi, the BJP candidates would have lost their security deposits.”

These elections are turning out to be a vote either for Modi or against Modi. Whatever seats BJP and its allies get will be primarily because of him. The party realises this and that is why it has coined slogans like ‘Modi hai to mumkin hai’, ‘Phir ek baar Modi sarkar’. Everybody, obviously, is eagerly waiting for May 23. That clearly is the D-Day.&nbsp;

&nbsp;(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the&nbsp;<a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-the-prime-minister-as-president-2748978">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp;

 
&nbsp;

Six out of seven phases are over for Lok Sabha elections, 2019. The fate of candidates in 90 per cent of the Parliament strength has been sealed. Ground feedback, journalists and commentators differ in opinions on who is leading at the end of Phase six.

Six out of seven phases are over for Lok Sabha elections, 2019. The fate of candidates in 90 per cent of the Parliament strength has been sealed. Ground feedback, journalists and commentators differ in opinions on who is leading at the end of Phase six. Some opinions are also coloured by their respective ideologies. Many experts claim there is a significant undercurrent, but are hesitant to call out the election outcome. The Indian voter is smart and is likely to have the last laugh on May 23, the day of the results. While this election is being touted as wave-less, the 2014 verdict was clear from the onset. UPA-2, reeling under scams and a mega onslaught by Narendra Modi, was predicted to lose. A year ago (in 2018), 2019 elections was a done deal. Rahul and Congress were preparing for 2024. A setback in Karnataka and losses in three Hindi heartland states put the BJP on the back foot. Most opinion polls predicted a hung assembly in December 2018 and January 2019. Then in the aftermath of Pulwama and air strike 2.0, NDA’s fortunes revived. The last of the polls showed NDA a few seats short of majority in April 2019. The fortunes of alliances have been swinging like a pendulum with NDA clearly ahead of others. While the BJP-led alliance is aiming to get to a majority, UPA and others are aiming to beat the NDA. Many factors affect the voting behaviour of an individual. For some voters, issues are very important while for others, leadership matters; there are also those who back a particular candidate, caste, performance of government, ideology and whether he/she is a beneficiary of government scheme or not, among other motivating factors. Also, it may not just be one factor but a combination of factors that affects voting behaviour. Unemployment, corruption, price rise, farm distress and development are subjects, which feature regularly in the top 5 issues across elections in India. While during the 2014 elections, price rise and corruption were the top 2 issues, in 2009 it was unemployment and price rise. Issues alone may not be the sole determinant of election outcomes. As I travel across the country in my profession as a political consultant, many people ask me who will win the 2019 elections. For me the biggest question of 2019 election is, when one goes to vote, is he/she voting to elect a Prime Minister or elect a Member of Parliament? In India, elections are increasingly becoming a presidential style. If more and more people go out and vote to elect a PM, BJP has the advantage. If more and more people go out and vote to elect their local representative, then it is advantage opposition, as BJP has most MPs and will have to bear the brunt of non-performance of some of them. Modi’s persona has helped BJP attain a simple majority on its own, in 2014, a feat accomplished after 30 years. The Centre for Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) carried out a National Election Study 2014, which asked respondents, “While voting some people give importance to the local candidate, others to the state-level leadership of the party and some others to the prime ministerial candidate. How would you describe yourself?” About 28 per cent voters gave importance to PM candidate and 26 per cent to the local candidate. The PM candidate was the topmost issue. What is this percentage likely to be in 2019, will determine the end results. Modi’s popularity is still intact and this is even acknowledged by his detractors. A middle-aged Uber driver in Delhi tells me he has a voter ID in Aligarh. He voted and believes that BJP is winning from there. The vote is not for the candidate, but for Modi. From relatives in Bihar to voters in Bhubaneswar to cab drivers in Shimla, most people believe Modi is the panacea of most ills: from taking on poverty to teaching Pakistan a lesson. They also believe that while state governments could be different, at the Centre there is only Modi who can deliver the goods. On Facebook live of Lallan Top, a popular online news portal, whose reporters are travelling through the length and breadth of Uttar Pradesh, many people on camera have been heard saying, “If there was no Modi, the BJP candidates would have lost their security deposits.” These elections are turning out to be a vote either for Modi or against Modi. Whatever seats BJP and its allies get will be primarily because of him. The party realises this and that is why it has coined slogans like ‘Modi hai to mumkin hai’, ‘Phir ek baar Modi sarkar’. Everybody, obviously, is eagerly waiting for May 23. That clearly is the D-Day. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Narendra Modi’s popularity is still intact and this is even acknowledged by his detractors

The general elections 2019 is moving towards closure, with six out of seven phases already over. All eyes are now on the counting.

It is not surprising that the issue of counting of Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trails (VVPATs) has become hot once again.&nbsp;

The decision to introduce VVPATs as a measure to make electronic voting machines (EVMs) transparent was taken in 2010 when a meeting of all political parties arrived at a consensus that this was the ultimate answer.

Finding the suggestion reasonable, the Election Commission (EC) immediately accepted it and asked the two EVM manufacturers, BEL and ECIL, to design the VVPAT machines. An independent committee of experts consisting of five professors from different IITs was tasked to oversee the design and the manufacturing process.

A series of trials were held, followed by a full-day election simulation in July 2011 in five climatically diverse cities– namely Cherrapunji, Delhi, Jaisalmer, Leh, and Thiruvananthapuram.

Since many bugs were noticed, the trial was repeated after addressing them in July 2012 at exactly the same places. Only after making sure that they were technologically sound and climatically dependable, were the VVPATs initially deployed in 20,000 polling booths successfully. Subsequently, all constituencies were equipped with VVPATs.&nbsp;

In 2013, the Supreme Court also lauded the EC’s decision to use VVPATs and directed the government to release adequate funds for their procurement for the 2019 elections. The machines that kept coming in were randomly deployed. From 2017 onwards, all state elections have been conducted with EVMs attached with VVPATs.

What was the counting procedure? Slips generated by one VVPAT in each assembly constituency were counted. Of the 1,500 machines counted so far, according to the EC, not a single mismatch was found.

In various elections, however, many VVPAT machines malfunctioned. The chief election commissioner (CEC) righty clarified that malfunctioning is different from the rigging.

During the by-elections in Bihar and UP, and the Karnataka assembly elections last year, VVPAT glitches resulted in machine replacement rates of 4 to 20 per cent.

These were largely due to issues in the print unit, which is sensitive to weather. With hardware changes introduced in the machines, the glitches came down to 2 per cent for the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections.

While the debate is going on, I had offered an out-of-the-box solution: Let the top two runners up in every constituency choose any two VVPATs to be counted. As they have the highest stake in the results, they will choose the ones they are most suspicious about.

This is analogous to the Decision Review System in the game of cricket, in which two referrals are allowed for each team. Ever since its introduction, violent disputes about the controversial decisions taken by the umpire have all but disappeared.

This would do away with a large random sample being demanded at present, as only four machines will have to be counted per constituency. In case any mismatch is detected, all machines in the constituency must be counted.

In March, as many as 21 opposition parties moved the Supreme Court demanding that 50 per cent of the total slips be tallied. The SC asked the Commission to increase the sample size of the tally from one booth per assembly constituency to five assembly segments of each Lok Sabha constituency “for better voter confidence and credibility of electoral process”.

The court said that the move will ensure the “greatest degree of accuracy and satisfaction” in the electoral process.

On April 24, the same 21 parties approached the SC again with a review petition, citing concerns related to the first two phases of polling and the “unreliability” of the EVMs.

On May 7, it was turned down with the court saying that “we are not inclined to modify our order”.

I wonder how these parties expected the apex to review its decision, which was taken after great deliberation, when no new facts had emerged justifying the return to the court.

Surprisingly, the issue which should have been discussed and debated is still unattended: What happens if the VVPAT count doesn’t match the EVM count? Even one mismatch is enough to create doubts about the other machines as well.

The current provision is that if there is a mismatch, the VVPAT will prevail. This is fine if the mismatch corresponds to the figures of the mock poll, which have not been deleted.

In all other mismatch cases, perhaps all machines in the constituency should then be counted. The apex court has called for “better voter confidence and credibility of the electoral process.”

If it takes time, so be it. After all, that was the purpose behind the introduction of VVPATs. This can be tried out on a pilot basis. There may not be many such cases, if at all, as evident from the experience of 1,500 machines, which didn’t throw up any mismatches, but public confidence will be ensured.&nbsp;

The Commission may convene an all-party meeting, yet again, as concerns are serious and the stakes extremely high. My experience in dealing with political parties is that with open-minded dialogue, consensus does emerge. Clarity of procedures is required before the counting day approaches. Time is running out.

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-the-politician-and-the-machine-2748683">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp;

The general elections 2019 is moving towards closure, with six out of seven phases already over. All eyes are now on the counting. It is not surprising that the issue of counting of Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trails (VVPATs) has become hot once again.

The general elections 2019 is moving towards closure, with six out of seven phases already over. All eyes are now on the counting. It is not surprising that the issue of counting of Voter Verifiable Paper Audit Trails (VVPATs) has become hot once again. The decision to introduce VVPATs as a measure to make electronic voting machines (EVMs) transparent was taken in 2010 when a meeting of all political parties arrived at a consensus that this was the ultimate answer. Finding the suggestion reasonable, the Election Commission (EC) immediately accepted it and asked the two EVM manufacturers, BEL and ECIL, to design the VVPAT machines. An independent committee of experts consisting of five professors from different IITs was tasked to oversee the design and the manufacturing process. A series of trials were held, followed by a full-day election simulation in July 2011 in five climatically diverse cities– namely Cherrapunji, Delhi, Jaisalmer, Leh, and Thiruvananthapuram. Since many bugs were noticed, the trial was repeated after addressing them in July 2012 at exactly the same places. Only after making sure that they were technologically sound and climatically dependable, were the VVPATs initially deployed in 20,000 polling booths successfully. Subsequently, all constituencies were equipped with VVPATs. In 2013, the Supreme Court also lauded the EC’s decision to use VVPATs and directed the government to release adequate funds for their procurement for the 2019 elections. The machines that kept coming in were randomly deployed. From 2017 onwards, all state elections have been conducted with EVMs attached with VVPATs. What was the counting procedure? Slips generated by one VVPAT in each assembly constituency were counted. Of the 1,500 machines counted so far, according to the EC, not a single mismatch was found. In various elections, however, many VVPAT machines malfunctioned. The chief election commissioner (CEC) righty clarified that malfunctioning is different from the rigging. During the by-elections in Bihar and UP, and the Karnataka assembly elections last year, VVPAT glitches resulted in machine replacement rates of 4 to 20 per cent. These were largely due to issues in the print unit, which is sensitive to weather. With hardware changes introduced in the machines, the glitches came down to 2 per cent for the Chhattisgarh Assembly elections. While the debate is going on, I had offered an out-of-the-box solution: Let the top two runners up in every constituency choose any two VVPATs to be counted. As they have the highest stake in the results, they will choose the ones they are most suspicious about. This is analogous to the Decision Review System in the game of cricket, in which two referrals are allowed for each team. Ever since its introduction, violent disputes about the controversial decisions taken by the umpire have all but disappeared. This would do away with a large random sample being demanded at present, as only four machines will have to be counted per constituency. In case any mismatch is detected, all machines in the constituency must be counted. In March, as many as 21 opposition parties moved the Supreme Court demanding that 50 per cent of the total slips be tallied. The SC asked the Commission to increase the sample size of the tally from one booth per assembly constituency to five assembly segments of each Lok Sabha constituency “for better voter confidence and credibility of electoral process”. The court said that the move will ensure the “greatest degree of accuracy and satisfaction” in the electoral process. On April 24, the same 21 parties approached the SC again with a review petition, citing concerns related to the first two phases of polling and the “unreliability” of the EVMs. On May 7, it was turned down with the court saying that “we are not inclined to modify our order”. I wonder how these parties expected the apex to review its decision, which was taken after great deliberation, when no new facts had emerged justifying the return to the court. Surprisingly, the issue which should have been discussed and debated is still unattended: What happens if the VVPAT count doesn’t match the EVM count? Even one mismatch is enough to create doubts about the other machines as well. The current provision is that if there is a mismatch, the VVPAT will prevail. This is fine if the mismatch corresponds to the figures of the mock poll, which have not been deleted. In all other mismatch cases, perhaps all machines in the constituency should then be counted. The apex court has called for “better voter confidence and credibility of the electoral process.” If it takes time, so be it. After all, that was the purpose behind the introduction of VVPATs. This can be tried out on a pilot basis. There may not be many such cases, if at all, as evident from the experience of 1,500 machines, which didn’t throw up any mismatches, but public confidence will be ensured. The Commission may convene an all-party meeting, yet again, as concerns are serious and the stakes extremely high. My experience in dealing with political parties is that with open-minded dialogue, consensus does emerge. Clarity of procedures is required before the counting day approaches. Time is running out. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

What happens if the VVPAT count doesn’t match the EVM count?

The elections are almost over. After exhaustive campaigning of more than seven weeks, the D-Day is approaching fast for all the political parties. So how did this election pan out? What's at stake? And which issues dominated the campaign? Here are the big takeaways from the seven-phase-long marathon election exercise:

Unabashed Hindutva

Unlike 2014, when the punch line was 'Gujarat model' and 'Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas'. 2019 election was untamed and unabashed Hindutva. The ruling party crossed certain lines which were not to be seen post-Babri Masjid demolition.&nbsp;

Most politicians, accused in the demolition row, went on to enjoy successful careers but none of them was charged under terror laws. The Ayodhya agitation remained a matter of faith and criminal cases revolved around the issue of law and order. Meanwhile, Pragya Singh was charged under terror laws and even then BJP gave her the ticket. The idea was to send a clear message that &nbsp;BJP’s first commitment remains the idea of undivided Hindu vote. It is for this reason, BJP by giving a ticket to Pragya Singh Thakur crossed the Rubicon where the idea of Hindu victimhood was enshrined on Pragya's living body.

This a big change from Vajpayee’s politics which looked for moderation once BJP acquired power. Throughout elections, BJP ensured that core voter remains mobilised on Hindutva even if a section of the middle class feels alienated. The question is whether mobilisation on the line of hard Hindutva ends up creating a stronger counter mobilisation or not? If the former stays strong then, BJP will be unaffected in Uttar Pradesh and if latter is the truth then BJP’s number, overall, will come down substantially in Lok Sabha.

For Modi or Against Modi but Only Modi

This is the first election which, in a small way, mimics 1989 election when Congress projected Rajiv Gandhi as the tallest leader and every other Opposition leader as an opportunist who by coming together wanted to defeat Congress party.&nbsp;

Well, Congress lost the election and rest remains history. The fact is that this election has only revolved around Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even the major Opposition party, Congress, has not once said that Rahul Gandhi is the Prime Ministerial candidate. In almost all the interview, he has given, Rahul Gandhi has only spoken about ways to stop Modi but not once, he or his party has claimed that they have the capacity to cross 200 plus seats. The best bet for the Congress is to break into triple digits and ensure that Modi does not become the Prime Minister. The bottom line of the political discourse through the month has been that you can love Modi or hate Modi, but you cannot ignore Modi. So, people will either vote for Modi or against Modi, but he remains the cornerstone of the discourse.

Harvest Areas

Many political pundits ignore this aspect of politics. Generally, the focus remains on constituencies which a party can win. BJP, like Congress in past, has focused on constituencies it has not won before and has drawn a list of 150 such seats. Not only BJP has focused on the non-traditional seats, but it has also doubled its efforts in non-traditional areas like Kerala, West Bengal and Odisha, this time around. In case, BJP gets a simple majority on its own, the performance in these areas would require closer examination.&nbsp;

Congress surge in 2009 also took place on similar lines. Congress was able to win seats which they had not won in the past 20 years in both Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Mandsaur Lok Sabha constituency in Madhya Pradesh and constituencies like Ballia and Maharajganj in Uttar Pradesh are examples in case.&nbsp;

Congress president Rahul Gandhi too made an attempt to repeat the same in 2012 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh by identifying tough seats but failed for the lack of clear leadership in the state. Congress has failed to reinvent its self in states which it has lost to regional parties. The latest example is that of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. BJP, on the other hand, has organisationally expanded into unchartered waters like North East and swept states like Tripura and Assam

Priyanka’s Launch

She was the surprise package and help for much occupied Rahul Gandhi. It is difficult to say as to how much impact she has had on the electorate, but she definitely chewed into the media space of BJP. My personal opinion is that her campaign had no impact in the Eastern Uttar Pradesh, but she did provide much-required publicity to the Congress Party. She was able to enthuse party workers in Uttar Pradesh and create a positive during her campaign. In fact, she generated more publicity than Rahul Gandhi during her tours in Uttar Pradesh.

Agriculture is Back

After two long decades, agriculture as an electoral issue is back on the drawing table. From 1991 onwards, agriculture faded away from active public discourse with the emerging middle class and economic liberalisation. Even the tag lines reflected the new mood which ranged from Shining India to 'Congress ka Hath Aam Aadmi Ke Saath' to 'Singh is King' to 'Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas'. After shocking defeat in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, BJP had to go back to the drawing room and ended up announcing massive subsidies to counter Congress whose campaign was only around waiver of farmers debt. It led to a large number of editorials being written on the farming community and new policy, required to end the agricultural crisis.

Regional Parties: Restoration of Balance?

For the first time after 1996, regional parties can play a big role in making of the new government. In likely hood, NDA++ is expected to form the government but regional players will have a strong say. DMK, TMC, YSRCP, TRS, BJD and SP-BSP alliance will play an important role in the formation of the government in New Delhi. SP-BSP can be a deal breaker and YSRCP and TRS may end up providing oxygen to NDA, if it falls short of majority though, as of now, TRS is campaigning for a Federal Front. 
 
This list can grow if&nbsp;BJD also decides to support BJP but the fact remains that regional parties will have a lot say in this election.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

The elections are almost over. After exhaustive campaigning of more than seven weeks, the D-Day is approaching fast for all the political parties. So how did this election pan out?

The elections are almost over. After exhaustive campaigning of more than seven weeks, the D-Day is approaching fast for all the political parties. So how did this election pan out? What's at stake? And which issues dominated the campaign? Here are the big takeaways from the seven-phase-long marathon election exercise: Unabashed Hindutva Unlike 2014, when the punch line was 'Gujarat model' and 'Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas'. 2019 election was untamed and unabashed Hindutva. The ruling party crossed certain lines which were not to be seen post-Babri Masjid demolition. Most politicians, accused in the demolition row, went on to enjoy successful careers but none of them was charged under terror laws. The Ayodhya agitation remained a matter of faith and criminal cases revolved around the issue of law and order. Meanwhile, Pragya Singh was charged under terror laws and even then BJP gave her the ticket. The idea was to send a clear message that BJP’s first commitment remains the idea of undivided Hindu vote. It is for this reason, BJP by giving a ticket to Pragya Singh Thakur crossed the Rubicon where the idea of Hindu victimhood was enshrined on Pragya's living body. This a big change from Vajpayee’s politics which looked for moderation once BJP acquired power. Throughout elections, BJP ensured that core voter remains mobilised on Hindutva even if a section of the middle class feels alienated. The question is whether mobilisation on the line of hard Hindutva ends up creating a stronger counter mobilisation or not? If the former stays strong then, BJP will be unaffected in Uttar Pradesh and if latter is the truth then BJP’s number, overall, will come down substantially in Lok Sabha. For Modi or Against Modi but Only Modi This is the first election which, in a small way, mimics 1989 election when Congress projected Rajiv Gandhi as the tallest leader and every other Opposition leader as an opportunist who by coming together wanted to defeat Congress party. Well, Congress lost the election and rest remains history. The fact is that this election has only revolved around Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even the major Opposition party, Congress, has not once said that Rahul Gandhi is the Prime Ministerial candidate. In almost all the interview, he has given, Rahul Gandhi has only spoken about ways to stop Modi but not once, he or his party has claimed that they have the capacity to cross 200 plus seats. The best bet for the Congress is to break into triple digits and ensure that Modi does not become the Prime Minister. The bottom line of the political discourse through the month has been that you can love Modi or hate Modi, but you cannot ignore Modi. So, people will either vote for Modi or against Modi, but he remains the cornerstone of the discourse. Harvest Areas Many political pundits ignore this aspect of politics. Generally, the focus remains on constituencies which a party can win. BJP, like Congress in past, has focused on constituencies it has not won before and has drawn a list of 150 such seats. Not only BJP has focused on the non-traditional seats, but it has also doubled its efforts in non-traditional areas like Kerala, West Bengal and Odisha, this time around. In case, BJP gets a simple majority on its own, the performance in these areas would require closer examination. Congress surge in 2009 also took place on similar lines. Congress was able to win seats which they had not won in the past 20 years in both Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. Mandsaur Lok Sabha constituency in Madhya Pradesh and constituencies like Ballia and Maharajganj in Uttar Pradesh are examples in case. Congress president Rahul Gandhi too made an attempt to repeat the same in 2012 assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh by identifying tough seats but failed for the lack of clear leadership in the state. Congress has failed to reinvent its self in states which it has lost to regional parties. The latest example is that of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh. BJP, on the other hand, has organisationally expanded into unchartered waters like North East and swept states like Tripura and Assam Priyanka’s Launch She was the surprise package and help for much occupied Rahul Gandhi. It is difficult to say as to how much impact she has had on the electorate, but she definitely chewed into the media space of BJP. My personal opinion is that her campaign had no impact in the Eastern Uttar Pradesh, but she did provide much-required publicity to the Congress Party. She was able to enthuse party workers in Uttar Pradesh and create a positive during her campaign. In fact, she generated more publicity than Rahul Gandhi during her tours in Uttar Pradesh. Agriculture is Back After two long decades, agriculture as an electoral issue is back on the drawing table. From 1991 onwards, agriculture faded away from active public discourse with the emerging middle class and economic liberalisation. Even the tag lines reflected the new mood which ranged from Shining India to 'Congress ka Hath Aam Aadmi Ke Saath' to 'Singh is King' to 'Sabka Saath Sabka Vikas'. After shocking defeat in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, BJP had to go back to the drawing room and ended up announcing massive subsidies to counter Congress whose campaign was only around waiver of farmers debt. It led to a large number of editorials being written on the farming community and new policy, required to end the agricultural crisis. Regional Parties: Restoration of Balance? For the first time after 1996, regional parties can play a big role in making of the new government. In likely hood, NDA++ is expected to form the government but regional players will have a strong say. DMK, TMC, YSRCP, TRS, BJD and SP-BSP alliance will play an important role in the formation of the government in New Delhi. SP-BSP can be a deal breaker and YSRCP and TRS may end up providing oxygen to NDA, if it falls short of majority though, as of now, TRS is campaigning for a Federal Front. This list can grow if BJD also decides to support BJP but the fact remains that regional parties will have a lot say in this election. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Lok Sabha polls 2019: Five key takeaways

India's famed political family - the Gandhis cast their vote in capital New Delhi in the penultimate phase of the mammoth Indian elections on Sunday (May 12).

India's Gandhi family members vote in New Delhi

With two of the seven-phased 2019 general election left to go, the Election Commission (EC) has reported countrywide confiscation of cash, gold, liquor and drugs. The haul, at the last count, is valued at over Rs 5,000 crore.&nbsp;

By the time polling concludes on May 19, this figure could go up significantly. Since the announcement of the election schedule on March 10, money has been impounded in drives by the authorities. The EC figures say that cash amounting to Rs 142 crore was seized between March 11 and 25 this year, the first 15 days of the general elections being announced.

Interestingly, what is confiscated is likely to be less than five per cent of what is being spent by candidates and parties in this general election. &nbsp;These are extremely worrying trends. The total approximate expenditure in this election — as calculated by me and now being confirmed by the news media — is Rs 50,000 crore. This is arguably the largest sum of money ever spent in an election, the American presidential polls included. Yet, there is scarcely a word on the subject by any political party or leader; a subject that poses a threat to the very fundamentals of the Republic. At the same time, leaders and candidates continue to accuse each other of bribing voters.&nbsp;

The news media, particularly TV channels, have been prominently reporting the confiscations with all the imagery at their command. Based on a survey conducted during the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the Centre for Media Studies (CMS) had demonstrated that extravagant media coverage of the seizures heightened the expectations of the voters sky high. With more billionaires than before contesting the polls, the expectation of the money spent too has skyrocketed.

According to the Commission, with gold, silver, liquor and cash taken together at the end of the second phase, Gujarat topped with seizures worth Rs 1,000 crore, followed by Punjab and Delhi. Only a case study can tell us why Gujarat, dominated by one party, has to unleash so many lures to keep the electorate in good humour. &nbsp;

On cash confiscations alone, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka top the table. Now Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal too have joined this note-for-vote race. In Andhra Pradesh, a week before the first phase of polling on April 11, the EC had identified 116 of the 175 assembly constituencies as money guzzlers. In other states too, the Commission has shortlisted constituencies where the money is likely to play a dominant role in the elections.&nbsp;

Yet, despite EC’s expenditure observers scanning the political landscape with a fine microscope, no breakthrough in reversing this trend is evident. That so much cash, liquor, gold and silver (now even drugs) is flowing extensively in so many different directions, does not bother anyone. It is clear that the percentage of voters who are being seduced with such lures is on the increase. &nbsp;

Two major studies conducted by the CMS in 2005 and 2007 in 20 or more states, and select studies since then in every round of elections, have confirmed that the note-for-vote trend continues unabated, never mind the lip service politicians pay to wage a historic battle against corruption. The studies had indicated that cash was in distribution, irrespective of class, both in urban and the rural areas.

CMS studies on corruption over the 15 years have proved beyond any doubt that election-time expenditure of candidates is the mother of all corruption.

Without addressing this malaise, no other initiative or measure taken by the government is going to make any difference. That most — if not all — of this election money remains unaccounted, is of no concern to India’s political parties and their leaders. On the contrary, they seem to like it. &nbsp;&nbsp;

There is another, larger issue at stake here. Despite such intense campaigning by candidates and parties, whirlwind visits and public meetings of top leaders and saturation media coverage, why do contestants still have to rely on enticements and cash doles? If politicians genuinely believed that their campaigns motivated voters, they would not be throwing away money like this.

They might as well bid for votes and let the richest among them win! After all, that is where things are coming down to. It is also likely that our leaders secretly believe that money is more important than controversies, personal accusations and irrelevant rhetoric.

In this particular paradigm, it is difficult to see better sense prevail. It is also ambitious to expect an elected public representative who can strengthen democracy and represent peoples’ concerns in an effective manner. &nbsp; 
 
The 2019 Lok Sabha polls will go down as a watershed election. Quid pro quo has become the norm, with corporates and businesses becoming the major source of electoral funding.&nbsp;

Citizen or voter contribution to candidates and parties is no longer sought. The question is are we even aware of this change and its implications, or even whether this shift has taken place transparently?&nbsp;

Under the circumstances, news media can play a more positive and proactive role, making a difference to reverse the present trend, if only they are determined enough to pursue it as a strategy. But if the media itself is drowned in a conflict of interest and in an obliging mood, even that would be difficult.&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-the-note-for-vote-syndrome-2747667">original article</a>)

 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.) 
&nbsp;

With two of the seven-phased 2019 general election left to go, the Election Commission (EC) has reported countrywide confiscation of cash, gold, liquor and drugs.

With two of the seven-phased 2019 general election left to go, the Election Commission (EC) has reported countrywide confiscation of cash, gold, liquor and drugs. The haul, at the last count, is valued at over Rs 5,000 crore. By the time polling concludes on May 19, this figure could go up significantly. Since the announcement of the election schedule on March 10, money has been impounded in drives by the authorities. The EC figures say that cash amounting to Rs 142 crore was seized between March 11 and 25 this year, the first 15 days of the general elections being announced. Interestingly, what is confiscated is likely to be less than five per cent of what is being spent by candidates and parties in this general election. These are extremely worrying trends. The total approximate expenditure in this election — as calculated by me and now being confirmed by the news media — is Rs 50,000 crore. This is arguably the largest sum of money ever spent in an election, the American presidential polls included. Yet, there is scarcely a word on the subject by any political party or leader; a subject that poses a threat to the very fundamentals of the Republic. At the same time, leaders and candidates continue to accuse each other of bribing voters. The news media, particularly TV channels, have been prominently reporting the confiscations with all the imagery at their command. Based on a survey conducted during the 2009 and 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the Centre for Media Studies (CMS) had demonstrated that extravagant media coverage of the seizures heightened the expectations of the voters sky high. With more billionaires than before contesting the polls, the expectation of the money spent too has skyrocketed. According to the Commission, with gold, silver, liquor and cash taken together at the end of the second phase, Gujarat topped with seizures worth Rs 1,000 crore, followed by Punjab and Delhi. Only a case study can tell us why Gujarat, dominated by one party, has to unleash so many lures to keep the electorate in good humour. On cash confiscations alone, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana and Karnataka top the table. Now Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal too have joined this note-for-vote race. In Andhra Pradesh, a week before the first phase of polling on April 11, the EC had identified 116 of the 175 assembly constituencies as money guzzlers. In other states too, the Commission has shortlisted constituencies where the money is likely to play a dominant role in the elections. Yet, despite EC’s expenditure observers scanning the political landscape with a fine microscope, no breakthrough in reversing this trend is evident. That so much cash, liquor, gold and silver (now even drugs) is flowing extensively in so many different directions, does not bother anyone. It is clear that the percentage of voters who are being seduced with such lures is on the increase. Two major studies conducted by the CMS in 2005 and 2007 in 20 or more states, and select studies since then in every round of elections, have confirmed that the note-for-vote trend continues unabated, never mind the lip service politicians pay to wage a historic battle against corruption. The studies had indicated that cash was in distribution, irrespective of class, both in urban and the rural areas. CMS studies on corruption over the 15 years have proved beyond any doubt that election-time expenditure of candidates is the mother of all corruption. Without addressing this malaise, no other initiative or measure taken by the government is going to make any difference. That most — if not all — of this election money remains unaccounted, is of no concern to India’s political parties and their leaders. On the contrary, they seem to like it. There is another, larger issue at stake here. Despite such intense campaigning by candidates and parties, whirlwind visits and public meetings of top leaders and saturation media coverage, why do contestants still have to rely on enticements and cash doles? If politicians genuinely believed that their campaigns motivated voters, they would not be throwing away money like this. They might as well bid for votes and let the richest among them win! After all, that is where things are coming down to. It is also likely that our leaders secretly believe that money is more important than controversies, personal accusations and irrelevant rhetoric. In this particular paradigm, it is difficult to see better sense prevail. It is also ambitious to expect an elected public representative who can strengthen democracy and represent peoples’ concerns in an effective manner. The 2019 Lok Sabha polls will go down as a watershed election. Quid pro quo has become the norm, with corporates and businesses becoming the major source of electoral funding. Citizen or voter contribution to candidates and parties is no longer sought. The question is are we even aware of this change and its implications, or even whether this shift has taken place transparently? Under the circumstances, news media can play a more positive and proactive role, making a difference to reverse the present trend, if only they are determined enough to pursue it as a strategy. But if the media itself is drowned in a conflict of interest and in an obliging mood, even that would be difficult. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

2019 Lok Sabha polls will go down as the most expensive election in the history of democracy

The leaders of opposition parties are reportedly contemplating a meeting between May 19 (the last phase of polling) and May 23 (when the results will be announced). The meeting will be held to decide the Prime Ministerial candidate of the national-level alliance - 'Mahagathbandhan'.

On the other hand, there has been another significant development, wherein Telangana Rashtra Samiti chief K Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR) revived his efforts to stitch a&nbsp;'third front'.

KCR met CPM leader and Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan to discuss&nbsp;the&nbsp;'national political scenario'. 
 
Vijayan, after the meeting, said&nbsp;that neither Congress nor BJP will get absolute majority and regional parties will play a key role in the formation of government at the Centre.

However, it's unlikely that Vijayan will back the federal front as CPM is a foe of BJP.

Rao is also scheduled to meet DMK chief Stalin on May 13, though reports say Stalin has turned down his proposal owing to his campaign schedule for the May 19 by-polls.

It's to be noted that DMK has an alliance with the Congress in Tamil Nadu and Stalin has already extended his support to the 'Mahagathbandhan.&nbsp;

He had also recommended Rahul Gandhi's name as the Mahagathbandhan's Prime Ministerial candidate.

Also, Congress has, time and again, accused KCR as the B-team of NDA. According to the party, KCR has been trying to forge a third front to help BJP, in case, the saffron party falls short of numbers.

Furthermore, there are reports which suggest KCR has reportedly asked JD(S) leader and Karnataka chief minister H D Kumaraswamy to help him strike a deal with the Congress. The Karnataka chief minister appears as a facilitator here because JD(S) and Congress alliance is in power in Karnataka and the Mahagathbandhan too has Kumaraswamy's backing.

KCR has probably realised that any alliance without Congress party's participation won't work. Congress is the main opposition party and Rahul Gandhi has emerged as a credible and confident leader. 
 
It's worth noting here that in the Assembly elections, Congress pulled off stunning victories in the three Hindi heartland states under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi

It may be recalled that KCR's arch rival and Andhra Pradesh chief minister, Chandrababu Naidu, too has realised the importance of Congress party's presence in the Mahagathbandhan. 
 
Keeping aside three decades of rivalry, Naidu had reached out to Rahul Gandhi and both the leaders stressed the need to come together to 'save democracy'.

At the national level, most opposition parties have already extended their support to Mahagathbandhan to take on BJP. Congress too is likely to join this national-level alliance.&nbsp;

Last year, KCR had approached several party leaders not aligned with Congress and BJP, including Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik, TMC chief Mamata Banerjee, Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav and Karnataka chief minister H D Kumaraswamy.

However, his effort had hit the speed bumps after most parties chose Mahagathbandhan over his federal front. So far, only YSR Congress chief YS Jaganmohan Reddy has openly backed him.

Mahagathbandhan, an idea floated by Mamata Banerjee and promoted by Chandrababu Naidu, also has the support of seasoned political leaders like Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar and National Conference (NC) chief Farooq Abdullah.

KCR's idea of a non-Congress front is too weak to take on BJP. And the only way he can garner the support of all like-minded opposition parties, to keep&nbsp;the BJP-led NDA out of power, is by seeking Congress's cooperation. 
 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.) 
&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

The leaders of opposition parties are reportedly contemplating a meeting between May 19 (the last phase of polling) and May 23 (when the results will be announced).

The leaders of opposition parties are reportedly contemplating a meeting between May 19 (the last phase of polling) and May 23 (when the results will be announced). The meeting will be held to decide the Prime Ministerial candidate of the national-level alliance - 'Mahagathbandhan'. On the other hand, there has been another significant development, wherein Telangana Rashtra Samiti chief K Chandrashekhar Rao (KCR) revived his efforts to stitch a 'third front'. KCR met CPM leader and Kerala chief minister Pinarayi Vijayan to discuss the 'national political scenario'. Vijayan, after the meeting, said that neither Congress nor BJP will get absolute majority and regional parties will play a key role in the formation of government at the Centre. However, it's unlikely that Vijayan will back the federal front as CPM is a foe of BJP. Rao is also scheduled to meet DMK chief Stalin on May 13, though reports say Stalin has turned down his proposal owing to his campaign schedule for the May 19 by-polls. It's to be noted that DMK has an alliance with the Congress in Tamil Nadu and Stalin has already extended his support to the 'Mahagathbandhan. He had also recommended Rahul Gandhi's name as the Mahagathbandhan's Prime Ministerial candidate. Also, Congress has, time and again, accused KCR as the B-team of NDA. According to the party, KCR has been trying to forge a third front to help BJP, in case, the saffron party falls short of numbers. Furthermore, there are reports which suggest KCR has reportedly asked JD(S) leader and Karnataka chief minister H D Kumaraswamy to help him strike a deal with the Congress. The Karnataka chief minister appears as a facilitator here because JD(S) and Congress alliance is in power in Karnataka and the Mahagathbandhan too has Kumaraswamy's backing. KCR has probably realised that any alliance without Congress party's participation won't work. Congress is the main opposition party and Rahul Gandhi has emerged as a credible and confident leader. It's worth noting here that in the Assembly elections, Congress pulled off stunning victories in the three Hindi heartland states under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi It may be recalled that KCR's arch rival and Andhra Pradesh chief minister, Chandrababu Naidu, too has realised the importance of Congress party's presence in the Mahagathbandhan. Keeping aside three decades of rivalry, Naidu had reached out to Rahul Gandhi and both the leaders stressed the need to come together to 'save democracy'. At the national level, most opposition parties have already extended their support to Mahagathbandhan to take on BJP. Congress too is likely to join this national-level alliance. Last year, KCR had approached several party leaders not aligned with Congress and BJP, including Odisha chief minister Naveen Patnaik, TMC chief Mamata Banerjee, Samajwadi Party president Akhilesh Yadav and Karnataka chief minister H D Kumaraswamy. However, his effort had hit the speed bumps after most parties chose Mahagathbandhan over his federal front. So far, only YSR Congress chief YS Jaganmohan Reddy has openly backed him. Mahagathbandhan, an idea floated by Mamata Banerjee and promoted by Chandrababu Naidu, also has the support of seasoned political leaders like Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) chief Sharad Pawar and National Conference (NC) chief Farooq Abdullah. KCR's idea of a non-Congress front is too weak to take on BJP. And the only way he can garner the support of all like-minded opposition parties, to keep the BJP-led NDA out of power, is by seeking Congress's cooperation. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

No takers for federal front: Has KCR realised his idea of a non-Congress front is too weak to take on BJP?

In Indian democracy, voting is a right. No matter what you think about it, it empowers millions of people across the country. It particularly empowers those who feel that their voice is not represented in the mainstream political discourse.

Recently, when the leader of Swaraj India, Yogendra Yadav, issued an appeal to voters in Delhi to vote for none of the above (NOTA), it led to a backlash. The absence of any political alternative and the cynicism of nothing changing even if you cast a vote, is what prompts NOTA.

It’s a tool of expressing dissatisfaction with the pool of candidates, a voice against the collective betrayal by the political class. But what if this voice isn’t heard?

The idea behind NOTA is that when people start exercising it, it should make the ruling class aware of their fallacies. In realpolitik, often dictated by pragmatism and procedural stunts rather than substantive political discourse, politicians do not necessarily have a conscience. They just want to win. For them, if the numbers are not big enough, there is no real reason to cater to that constituency.

Of course, they could look at NOTA votes as potential votes they could have won. After all, what can be more symbolic of the spirit of democracy than a prospective candidate trying to convince people that she/he is good enough for their vote.

Everything then boils down to the return on investment. Is the politician’s time and effort valuable enough to convince those disillusioned with the system? Would it be better invested in convincing people who are willing to choose sides?

In most cases, the answer to these questions lies in who actually votes for NOTA. It is an informed choice and thus people who vote NOTA generally have their arguments prepared on why they don’t want to vote for any of the candidates in the field.

Sadly, most candidates have neither the intellectual faculty nor the moral conviction to actually change their opinion.

In a political system where people jump parties every other day, where ideological change is a matter of a press conference and where the bar for political discourse is often set at its lowest marker, the candidates one gets to choose from are often disinterested in the voter’s voice.

For the voter, the dilemma is always between voting as an individual or voting as a collective. As an individual, one has every right to vote for NOTA. There are so many constituencies where the same pool of candidates keep fighting for years, even generations. There are many voters who haven’t ever seen an MP or an MLA because they feel their vote is not important enough.

On the other side, it is worth considering larger political ideologies and goals. For example, an individual can think as a caste group or a religious group or member of an urban community, like the RWA.

In these cases, collective interests often overpower individual interests. Politicians too try and appease these collective voters because it is better return on their investment.

One day, we might have collectives in India voting and propagating for NOTA. This will surely draw the attention of every political party towards the NOTA voter.

For now though, the NOTA voter is mostly an individual, tired of no change, watching a surfeit of TV news debates and appalled at the political discourse in the country.

Looked at it like that, Yogendra Yadav might have been advocating NOTA as a pragmatic political tool. After all, most NOTA voters in Delhi are presumably middle or upper class and have traditionally voted for either the BJP or Congress.

So NOTA, in reality, might actually help his old party, which is more popular among the lower middle and working classes of Delhi. For some, this might seem as a piece of far fetched political fiction, but one thing is for sure: No one can predict anything about the elections until the results are out. 
&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-nota-unknown-factor-now-may-23-could-provide-clues-2747320">original article</a>)

 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

&nbsp;

In Indian democracy, voting is a right. No matter what you think about it, it empowers millions of people across the country. It particularly empowers those who feel that their voice is not represented in the mainstream political discourse.

In Indian democracy, voting is a right. No matter what you think about it, it empowers millions of people across the country. It particularly empowers those who feel that their voice is not represented in the mainstream political discourse. Recently, when the leader of Swaraj India, Yogendra Yadav, issued an appeal to voters in Delhi to vote for none of the above (NOTA), it led to a backlash. The absence of any political alternative and the cynicism of nothing changing even if you cast a vote, is what prompts NOTA. It’s a tool of expressing dissatisfaction with the pool of candidates, a voice against the collective betrayal by the political class. But what if this voice isn’t heard? The idea behind NOTA is that when people start exercising it, it should make the ruling class aware of their fallacies. In realpolitik, often dictated by pragmatism and procedural stunts rather than substantive political discourse, politicians do not necessarily have a conscience. They just want to win. For them, if the numbers are not big enough, there is no real reason to cater to that constituency. Of course, they could look at NOTA votes as potential votes they could have won. After all, what can be more symbolic of the spirit of democracy than a prospective candidate trying to convince people that she/he is good enough for their vote. Everything then boils down to the return on investment. Is the politician’s time and effort valuable enough to convince those disillusioned with the system? Would it be better invested in convincing people who are willing to choose sides? In most cases, the answer to these questions lies in who actually votes for NOTA. It is an informed choice and thus people who vote NOTA generally have their arguments prepared on why they don’t want to vote for any of the candidates in the field. Sadly, most candidates have neither the intellectual faculty nor the moral conviction to actually change their opinion. In a political system where people jump parties every other day, where ideological change is a matter of a press conference and where the bar for political discourse is often set at its lowest marker, the candidates one gets to choose from are often disinterested in the voter’s voice. For the voter, the dilemma is always between voting as an individual or voting as a collective. As an individual, one has every right to vote for NOTA. There are so many constituencies where the same pool of candidates keep fighting for years, even generations. There are many voters who haven’t ever seen an MP or an MLA because they feel their vote is not important enough. On the other side, it is worth considering larger political ideologies and goals. For example, an individual can think as a caste group or a religious group or member of an urban community, like the RWA. In these cases, collective interests often overpower individual interests. Politicians too try and appease these collective voters because it is better return on their investment. One day, we might have collectives in India voting and propagating for NOTA. This will surely draw the attention of every political party towards the NOTA voter. For now though, the NOTA voter is mostly an individual, tired of no change, watching a surfeit of TV news debates and appalled at the political discourse in the country. Looked at it like that, Yogendra Yadav might have been advocating NOTA as a pragmatic political tool. After all, most NOTA voters in Delhi are presumably middle or upper class and have traditionally voted for either the BJP or Congress. So NOTA, in reality, might actually help his old party, which is more popular among the lower middle and working classes of Delhi. For some, this might seem as a piece of far fetched political fiction, but one thing is for sure: No one can predict anything about the elections until the results are out. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

This election, India will finally know the effect NOTA has on the political discourse

Nearly 20 days after elections were held in Tamil Nadu (polling day was April 18), the Chief Electoral Officer(CEO) Satyabrata Sahoo announced on Wednesday that re-polling would be held in 13 booths that are spread across districts.&nbsp;

Speaking to reporters in Chennai, the officer explained the reasons behind the Election Commission's decision of conducting re-polls in the state.

He said that it was recommended to the ECI on April 20 that re-polling be conducted in ten booths spread across Dharmapuri, Cuddalore and Tiruvallur owing to data clearing errors in the EVMs, VVPAT machines and dysfunctional EVMs.&nbsp;

Besides the initially recommended 10 booths, re-polling has also been announced for two booths falling under Theni and one seat under Erode constituency.

Subsequently, information regarding errors in 46 booths was also sent across to the ECI, outlining the specific issues faced in each booth. The Officer said that of the 65,000 booths in the state there were errors in around 46 booths, as this time there was additional equipment in the form of the VVPAT machine.

Elaborating on the nature of the errors, the CEO said that while conducting mock polling in the booths, between 6 and 7 am, about 50 votes were cast, but the booth officers had committed errors in clearing the data in either the EVM or the VVPAT or in certain cases both machines. In some cases, the VVPAT slips were not cleared after the mock poll was conducted.

Regarding the arrangements being made for conducting re-polling in the 13 booths, he said, the respective District Election Officers would ensure that adequate awareness is created and measures are undertaken to arrange the EVMs and VVPATs. Awareness campaigns would include the beating of drums and making announcements, in addition to press releases.

Allaying fears of EVMs being moved from Erode, he said that the EVMs and VVPATs cannot be moved without the permission and knowledge of ECI and that the district officers would inform the parties before doing so.&nbsp;

&nbsp;Regarding when parliamentary elections would be held in Vellore, where it was earlier rescinded because of malpractices and huge cash seizures, he said that currently there is no information on the same.

In addition to by-polls to four vacant state assembly constituencies, Tamil Nadu will also have re-polling in 13 booths on May 19. While booths in Cuddalore and Erode would have re-polling for the parliamentary elections, booths in Theni, Dharmapuri and Tiruvallur would have re-polling for both assembly by-elections and parliamentary elections.

Nearly 20 days after elections were held in Tamil Nadu (polling day was April 18), the Chief Electoral Officer(CEO) Satyabrata Sahoo announced on Wednesday that re-polling would be held in 13 booths that are spread across districts.

Nearly 20 days after elections were held in Tamil Nadu (polling day was April 18), the Chief Electoral Officer(CEO) Satyabrata Sahoo announced on Wednesday that re-polling would be held in 13 booths that are spread across districts. Speaking to reporters in Chennai, the officer explained the reasons behind the Election Commission's decision of conducting re-polls in the state. He said that it was recommended to the ECI on April 20 that re-polling be conducted in ten booths spread across Dharmapuri, Cuddalore and Tiruvallur owing to data clearing errors in the EVMs, VVPAT machines and dysfunctional EVMs. Besides the initially recommended 10 booths, re-polling has also been announced for two booths falling under Theni and one seat under Erode constituency. Subsequently, information regarding errors in 46 booths was also sent across to the ECI, outlining the specific issues faced in each booth. The Officer said that of the 65,000 booths in the state there were errors in around 46 booths, as this time there was additional equipment in the form of the VVPAT machine. Elaborating on the nature of the errors, the CEO said that while conducting mock polling in the booths, between 6 and 7 am, about 50 votes were cast, but the booth officers had committed errors in clearing the data in either the EVM or the VVPAT or in certain cases both machines. In some cases, the VVPAT slips were not cleared after the mock poll was conducted. Regarding the arrangements being made for conducting re-polling in the 13 booths, he said, the respective District Election Officers would ensure that adequate awareness is created and measures are undertaken to arrange the EVMs and VVPATs. Awareness campaigns would include the beating of drums and making announcements, in addition to press releases. Allaying fears of EVMs being moved from Erode, he said that the EVMs and VVPATs cannot be moved without the permission and knowledge of ECI and that the district officers would inform the parties before doing so. Regarding when parliamentary elections would be held in Vellore, where it was earlier rescinded because of malpractices and huge cash seizures, he said that currently there is no information on the same. In addition to by-polls to four vacant state assembly constituencies, Tamil Nadu will also have re-polling in 13 booths on May 19. While booths in Cuddalore and Erode would have re-polling for the parliamentary elections, booths in Theni, Dharmapuri and Tiruvallur would have re-polling for both assembly by-elections and parliamentary elections.

Tamil Nadu CEO clarifies on reasons behind re-polling in 13 booths 

The run-up to Lok Sabha election 2019 will be remembered not just for the fierce campaigning battle between the opposition parties and the BJP, but also for leaders resorting to offensive statements against one another.

To begin with, BSP leader Azam Khan stirred a row with a below the belt personal remark&nbsp;on Jaya Prada&nbsp;saying, "She wears 'Khaki Underpants'."

This did not stop here. As an add-on, Azam Khan's son called Jaya Prada 'Anarkali'.&nbsp;

Even then, the party leaders did not issue any apology or clarification. In fact, Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav's wife, Dimple Yadav, asked media persons to ignore such 'trivial issues'.&nbsp;

Furthermore, the Supreme Court had to intervene and ask for Congress president Rahul Gandhi's apology for attributing the slogan 'Chowkidaar Chor Hai' (referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a corrupt security guard) to the top court.

After displaying initial reluctance, Rahul Gandhi finally apologised to the court.

BJP leader Maneka Gandhi gave another shocker by threatening Muslims to vote for her or she will not help them when she comes to power again. Mayawati and Yogi Adityanath too appealed to voters on the lines of religion.

The Election Commission of India (ECI) had imposed a short ban on UP CM Yogi Adityanath, BSP chief Mayawati, Union Minister Maneka Gandhi and SP leader Azam Khan from election campaigning.

However, this did not serve as a deterrent and leaders continued to make divisive and hate speech.

CPI(M) leader Sita Ram Yechury made a bizarre statement asserting that Hindu mythological books like Ramayana and Mahabharata prove that Hindus are violent.&nbsp;

The statement was an attempt by Yechury to enhance his image as a secular leader by attacking a specific religion.

When so much was happening around, there is no way West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee could stay behind. After Modi revealed in an interview that Didi sends him sweets, Banerjee said she will now make sweets with soil and put pebbles in it.

Thereafter, responding to PM's remarks that she refused to take his calls before cyclone Fani hit, said she does not want to share the dais with 'expiry PM', claiming Modi is unlikely to get a second term. She also said she wanted to give the Prime Minister 'a&nbsp;tight slap of democracy'.

Mamata Banerjee, here, clearly ignored a sensitive issue affecting thousands of people. Keeping their differences aside, she should have come together on a single platform with the Prime Minister to discuss the policies and actions. Playing politics over cyclone Fani should have been avoided.

This election, leaders cut across party lines have shown utter disregard for the Model Code of Conduct (MCC). Even after the Supreme Court's intervention and EC action against the errant leaders, they refused to keep a check on their words and conduct.&nbsp;

MCC is a set of guidelines issued by the Election Commission to ensure a free and fair election. However, the norms are not legally enforceable.

The MCC structure has to be reworked to make it legally binding. Parliament needs to grant more powers to the Election watchdog. It should also be empowered to disqualify a candidate from the poll race in severe cases of violations.

However, it's not simply a duty of the Election Commission to ensure the sanctity of elections. Political parties and&nbsp;their&nbsp;leaders too need to come forward and follow the MCC guidelines. 
&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

&nbsp;

The run-up to Lok Sabha election 2019 will be remembered not just for the fierce campaigning battle between the opposition parties and the BJP, but also for leaders resorting to offensive statements against one another.

The run-up to Lok Sabha election 2019 will be remembered not just for the fierce campaigning battle between the opposition parties and the BJP, but also for leaders resorting to offensive statements against one another. To begin with, BSP leader Azam Khan stirred a row with a below the belt personal remark on Jaya Prada saying, "She wears 'Khaki Underpants'." This did not stop here. As an add-on, Azam Khan's son called Jaya Prada 'Anarkali'. Even then, the party leaders did not issue any apology or clarification. In fact, Samajwadi Party President Akhilesh Yadav's wife, Dimple Yadav, asked media persons to ignore such 'trivial issues'. Furthermore, the Supreme Court had to intervene and ask for Congress president Rahul Gandhi's apology for attributing the slogan 'Chowkidaar Chor Hai' (referring to Prime Minister Narendra Modi as a corrupt security guard) to the top court. After displaying initial reluctance, Rahul Gandhi finally apologised to the court. BJP leader Maneka Gandhi gave another shocker by threatening Muslims to vote for her or she will not help them when she comes to power again. Mayawati and Yogi Adityanath too appealed to voters on the lines of religion. The Election Commission of India (ECI) had imposed a short ban on UP CM Yogi Adityanath, BSP chief Mayawati, Union Minister Maneka Gandhi and SP leader Azam Khan from election campaigning. However, this did not serve as a deterrent and leaders continued to make divisive and hate speech. CPI(M) leader Sita Ram Yechury made a bizarre statement asserting that Hindu mythological books like Ramayana and Mahabharata prove that Hindus are violent. The statement was an attempt by Yechury to enhance his image as a secular leader by attacking a specific religion. When so much was happening around, there is no way West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee could stay behind. After Modi revealed in an interview that Didi sends him sweets, Banerjee said she will now make sweets with soil and put pebbles in it. Thereafter, responding to PM's remarks that she refused to take his calls before cyclone Fani hit, said she does not want to share the dais with 'expiry PM', claiming Modi is unlikely to get a second term. She also said she wanted to give the Prime Minister 'a tight slap of democracy'. Mamata Banerjee, here, clearly ignored a sensitive issue affecting thousands of people. Keeping their differences aside, she should have come together on a single platform with the Prime Minister to discuss the policies and actions. Playing politics over cyclone Fani should have been avoided. This election, leaders cut across party lines have shown utter disregard for the Model Code of Conduct (MCC). Even after the Supreme Court's intervention and EC action against the errant leaders, they refused to keep a check on their words and conduct. MCC is a set of guidelines issued by the Election Commission to ensure a free and fair election. However, the norms are not legally enforceable. The MCC structure has to be reworked to make it legally binding. Parliament needs to grant more powers to the Election watchdog. It should also be empowered to disqualify a candidate from the poll race in severe cases of violations. However, it's not simply a duty of the Election Commission to ensure the sanctity of elections. Political parties and their leaders too need to come forward and follow the MCC guidelines. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

2019 Lok Sabha election campaign will be remembered for divisive speeches and bitter war of words

Violence is on it's peak in each & every phase of Lok Sabha Elections 2019 in West Bengal. Another incidents reported in Hooghly & Barrackpore.

West Bengal: Scuffle held between BJP-TMC, BJP leader beaten up in Hooghly

The West Bengal government has refused to hold a review meeting with Prime Minister Narendra Modi to assess the damage caused by Cyclone Fani, according to government sources.

Politics over PM's cyclone review meet

The CVoter Tracker, an opinion survey of voters, found that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity dipped after his first year in office. A significant 63 per cent of those surveyed found his government to be anti-poor and anti-farmer. As Modi completes five years in office, his popularity is touching an all-time high despite repeated stories about India’s economic woes.

In April 2014, when the coalition led by the Indian National Congress was in power, the top two issues people cared about were corruption and inflation. Six months after Modi won the 2014 elections, unemployment emerged as the most important issue for Indian voters. Till January 2019, this remained the case. Yet voters seem to be less concerned about it right now. What happened?

The explanation is best delivered through an analogy. Imagine you are suffering from many ailments and many parts of your body are aching terribly. You go to a doctor and list down all the problems: headache, stomachache, backache, knee pain, twisted ankle, spondylitis, tennis elbow and a few more aches. But before the doctor begins treating you for all symptoms, you ask him to do something about your backache because you claim it’s killing you. When you go to meet the doctor next, you request relief for knee pain, and the next time you beg relief from spondylitis. All this time, you are suffering from a chronic migraine that refuses to go away, but other pains push it into the background. That is precisely what has happened to the Indian voter’s chronic unemployment problem.

The answer may lie in public perception. Almost 42 per cent of the people who mentioned unemployment as a problem felt that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would solve the problem. In contrast, only 13 per cent believed that the Congress party would be able to do so. Also, 53 per cent&nbsp;of the people surveyed believe that their quality of life would improve in the next 12 months. Only 17 per cent were pessimistic and believed otherwise. This high index of optimism is working in favour of Modi and the BJP. 
 
The Pulwama effect and populist sops

The most important factor in the ongoing election might turn out to be the attack on Indian troops in Pulwama. It is an emotive issue that resulted in a national outpouring of grief. Modi’s bold airstrikes won popular acclaim and boosted his popularity. Mainstream media oxygenated the entire episode. As a result, people seem to be willing to forgive Modi’s policy failures as honest mistakes of a risk-taking, dynamic prime minister.

In the past, security has not played much of a role in Indian elections. Manmohan Singh was re-elected as prime minister despite the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Terror strikes and security issues have, for the most part, remained a non-issue in CVoter Tracker data. Before the Pulwama attacks, the recall rate of these issues was a mere 3 per cent. This has risen to a high of 26 per cent. It seems India might be changing. For the first time, security issues are competing with bread and butter ones in India’s post-independence history.

At the start of 2019, 37 per cent of the people surveyed believed their living standards had improved over 12 months, while 31 per cent felt they had declined. The BJP had lost elections in three states in the Hindi heartland: Madya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan. There was real fear that Modi would lose like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the BJP prime minister from 1999 to 2004. The specter of 2004 was haunting the party 15 years after it unexpectedly lost the election. 
 
Modi is an arch pragmatist and decided to go on a populist spree. He gave reservation to economically backward upper-caste families, a measure designed to retain the traditional vote base of his party. Money for farmers, targeted cash transfers to the poor and a budget full of goodies for different sections of society soothed frayed nerves of voters.

By March 7, 2019, 45 per cent people reported improved living standards and only 22 per cent said these standards had declined. On the same date, 51 per cent respondents said they were very satisfied with the working of the Modi government in contrast to 36 per cent on January 1. The combination of sops to voter and patriotism post-Pulwama boosted the fortunes of Modi.

In fact, his personal popularity ratings doubled between January 1 and March 7. People repeatedly contrasted Modi’s bold action to Singh’s lukewarm response to the Mumbai attacks more than 10 years ago. The fact that Modi is the first Indian prime minister to attack Pakistan in its own territory, on its own sovereign soil, since Indira Gandhi has worked strongly in his favour.

Rahul Gandhi - Modi's best friend

At the start of 2019, Rahul Gandhi’s stock seemed to be rising. This fifth-generation heir of the Nehru family had gone around the world to elite universities such as Berkeley and the London School of Economics. His party, the Indian National Congress, had won three state elections in the Hindi heartland. Hearteningly, his approval rating was 23 per cent on January 1. Recently, his approval rating has plummeted to 8 per cent

Just as Pulwama worked in Modi’s favour, it has worked against Gandhi. Indians no longer trust the Congress party on national security. Most Indians believe that the party has been soft on Pakistan since 2004. Its inability to guarantee security during its time in power and its perceived softness on terror has come back to haunt Congress in 2019.

The BJP has been very clever in its electoral strategy. It has portrayed the 2019 election as a binary choice between Modi and Gandhi. This bipolar choice has resulted in people favouring the 56-inch chested Modi to the weak, inarticulate and ineffectual Gandhi. It has led many pundits to remark that Gandhi is Modi’s best friend. And there is more than an element of truth in that comment.

Banana peels still remain

In India, the anti-incumbency factor has been running strong in elections for the last two decades. Politicians are rarely able to meet people’s expectations. So, people vote in opposition to punish the government. The Modi government is not exempt to this powerful phenomenon. On January 1, 27 per cent wanted to vote it out. By March 7, this number had dropped to 20 per cent, a still significant figure.

Even as the anti-incumbency number has dropped for the government, the number of undecided voters has risen from 42 per cent to 47 per cent. This is evidence of a polity in flux. These voters could swing either way by the time they enter the polls. This is the most worrisome fact for the BJP. If these voters started blaming Modi for their economic woes, then he too could end up with the same fate as Vajpayee.

In 2014, people voted for non-Nehruvian management of the economy. They wanted less control by the Indian state, which had spectacularly mismanaged the economy. However, demonetisation, as well as, the imposition of the goods and sales tax increased the heavy hand of the state. In fact, many have come to believe that Modi is obsessed with increasing tax revenue to exclusion of everything else. This has strengthened the inspector-raj infamously created by Congress.

In fact, the BJP has made no structural or institutional break from the past. It is just seen as a cleaner and more efficient version of the Indian National Congress. Prime Minister Modi offered no new ideas about governance or the economy. For the last five years, the government has launched one scheme after another and initiated many welfare measures, but the sentiment on the street is negative. Consumption has fallen, investment remains low and controversy rages around unemployment figures. Economic woes might still cause the undecided voter to flip into an anti-incumbent one.

In 2014, the BJP ran as an opposition party enjoying the anti-incumbency factor. Today, it faces an opposition that has come together to unseat it from power. Furthermore, India’s democracy follow the first-past-the-post Westminster model. Victory in 543 distinct seats decides who forms the government, not the winner of a pan-national election. It is well within the realms of possibility that Modi’s BJP might fall short of the magic figure of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of parliament.

A final factor weakening the BJP is not unemployment of the masses, but the unemployability of a large number of its members of parliaments. Many of its MPs are “good-for-nothing” and have relied on the goodwill for Modi to get elected. More than external injury, the BJP faces the clear and present danger of severe “internal bleeding” that might damage its chances. Like the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the BJP is a cadre-based party. The communists lost power and relevance once their cadres rotted and lost touch with the people. The BJP faces a similar risk as its cadre and elected representatives seem to be following the communist path.

(This article was originally published on The Fair Observer. Read the <a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/region/central_south_asia/narendra-modi-bjp-win-indian-election-news-south-asia-world-news-today-39084/">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp;

The CVoter Tracker, an opinion survey of voters, found that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity dipped after his first year in office. A significant 63 per cent of those surveyed found his government to be anti-poor and anti-farmer.

The CVoter Tracker, an opinion survey of voters, found that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity dipped after his first year in office. A significant 63 per cent of those surveyed found his government to be anti-poor and anti-farmer. As Modi completes five years in office, his popularity is touching an all-time high despite repeated stories about India’s economic woes. In April 2014, when the coalition led by the Indian National Congress was in power, the top two issues people cared about were corruption and inflation. Six months after Modi won the 2014 elections, unemployment emerged as the most important issue for Indian voters. Till January 2019, this remained the case. Yet voters seem to be less concerned about it right now. What happened? The explanation is best delivered through an analogy. Imagine you are suffering from many ailments and many parts of your body are aching terribly. You go to a doctor and list down all the problems: headache, stomachache, backache, knee pain, twisted ankle, spondylitis, tennis elbow and a few more aches. But before the doctor begins treating you for all symptoms, you ask him to do something about your backache because you claim it’s killing you. When you go to meet the doctor next, you request relief for knee pain, and the next time you beg relief from spondylitis. All this time, you are suffering from a chronic migraine that refuses to go away, but other pains push it into the background. That is precisely what has happened to the Indian voter’s chronic unemployment problem. The answer may lie in public perception. Almost 42 per cent of the people who mentioned unemployment as a problem felt that Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) would solve the problem. In contrast, only 13 per cent believed that the Congress party would be able to do so. Also, 53 per cent of the people surveyed believe that their quality of life would improve in the next 12 months. Only 17 per cent were pessimistic and believed otherwise. This high index of optimism is working in favour of Modi and the BJP. The Pulwama effect and populist sops The most important factor in the ongoing election might turn out to be the attack on Indian troops in Pulwama. It is an emotive issue that resulted in a national outpouring of grief. Modi’s bold airstrikes won popular acclaim and boosted his popularity. Mainstream media oxygenated the entire episode. As a result, people seem to be willing to forgive Modi’s policy failures as honest mistakes of a risk-taking, dynamic prime minister. In the past, security has not played much of a role in Indian elections. Manmohan Singh was re-elected as prime minister despite the 2008 Mumbai attacks. Terror strikes and security issues have, for the most part, remained a non-issue in CVoter Tracker data. Before the Pulwama attacks, the recall rate of these issues was a mere 3 per cent. This has risen to a high of 26 per cent. It seems India might be changing. For the first time, security issues are competing with bread and butter ones in India’s post-independence history. At the start of 2019, 37 per cent of the people surveyed believed their living standards had improved over 12 months, while 31 per cent felt they had declined. The BJP had lost elections in three states in the Hindi heartland: Madya Pradesh, Chattisgarh and Rajasthan. There was real fear that Modi would lose like Atal Bihari Vajpayee, the BJP prime minister from 1999 to 2004. The specter of 2004 was haunting the party 15 years after it unexpectedly lost the election. Modi is an arch pragmatist and decided to go on a populist spree. He gave reservation to economically backward upper-caste families, a measure designed to retain the traditional vote base of his party. Money for farmers, targeted cash transfers to the poor and a budget full of goodies for different sections of society soothed frayed nerves of voters. By March 7, 2019, 45 per cent people reported improved living standards and only 22 per cent said these standards had declined. On the same date, 51 per cent respondents said they were very satisfied with the working of the Modi government in contrast to 36 per cent on January 1. The combination of sops to voter and patriotism post-Pulwama boosted the fortunes of Modi. In fact, his personal popularity ratings doubled between January 1 and March 7. People repeatedly contrasted Modi’s bold action to Singh’s lukewarm response to the Mumbai attacks more than 10 years ago. The fact that Modi is the first Indian prime minister to attack Pakistan in its own territory, on its own sovereign soil, since Indira Gandhi has worked strongly in his favour. Rahul Gandhi - Modi's best friend At the start of 2019, Rahul Gandhi’s stock seemed to be rising. This fifth-generation heir of the Nehru family had gone around the world to elite universities such as Berkeley and the London School of Economics. His party, the Indian National Congress, had won three state elections in the Hindi heartland. Hearteningly, his approval rating was 23 per cent on January 1. Recently, his approval rating has plummeted to 8 per cent Just as Pulwama worked in Modi’s favour, it has worked against Gandhi. Indians no longer trust the Congress party on national security. Most Indians believe that the party has been soft on Pakistan since 2004. Its inability to guarantee security during its time in power and its perceived softness on terror has come back to haunt Congress in 2019. The BJP has been very clever in its electoral strategy. It has portrayed the 2019 election as a binary choice between Modi and Gandhi. This bipolar choice has resulted in people favouring the 56-inch chested Modi to the weak, inarticulate and ineffectual Gandhi. It has led many pundits to remark that Gandhi is Modi’s best friend. And there is more than an element of truth in that comment. Banana peels still remain In India, the anti-incumbency factor has been running strong in elections for the last two decades. Politicians are rarely able to meet people’s expectations. So, people vote in opposition to punish the government. The Modi government is not exempt to this powerful phenomenon. On January 1, 27 per cent wanted to vote it out. By March 7, this number had dropped to 20 per cent, a still significant figure. Even as the anti-incumbency number has dropped for the government, the number of undecided voters has risen from 42 per cent to 47 per cent. This is evidence of a polity in flux. These voters could swing either way by the time they enter the polls. This is the most worrisome fact for the BJP. If these voters started blaming Modi for their economic woes, then he too could end up with the same fate as Vajpayee. In 2014, people voted for non-Nehruvian management of the economy. They wanted less control by the Indian state, which had spectacularly mismanaged the economy. However, demonetisation, as well as, the imposition of the goods and sales tax increased the heavy hand of the state. In fact, many have come to believe that Modi is obsessed with increasing tax revenue to exclusion of everything else. This has strengthened the inspector-raj infamously created by Congress. In fact, the BJP has made no structural or institutional break from the past. It is just seen as a cleaner and more efficient version of the Indian National Congress. Prime Minister Modi offered no new ideas about governance or the economy. For the last five years, the government has launched one scheme after another and initiated many welfare measures, but the sentiment on the street is negative. Consumption has fallen, investment remains low and controversy rages around unemployment figures. Economic woes might still cause the undecided voter to flip into an anti-incumbent one. In 2014, the BJP ran as an opposition party enjoying the anti-incumbency factor. Today, it faces an opposition that has come together to unseat it from power. Furthermore, India’s democracy follow the first-past-the-post Westminster model. Victory in 543 distinct seats decides who forms the government, not the winner of a pan-national election. It is well within the realms of possibility that Modi’s BJP might fall short of the magic figure of 272 seats in the Lok Sabha, India’s lower house of parliament. A final factor weakening the BJP is not unemployment of the masses, but the unemployability of a large number of its members of parliaments. Many of its MPs are “good-for-nothing” and have relied on the goodwill for Modi to get elected. More than external injury, the BJP faces the clear and present danger of severe “internal bleeding” that might damage its chances. Like the Communist Party of India (Marxist), the BJP is a cadre-based party. The communists lost power and relevance once their cadres rotted and lost touch with the people. The BJP faces a similar risk as its cadre and elected representatives seem to be following the communist path. (This article was originally published on The Fair Observer. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

Understanding the 2019 Indian elections

Though the 2019 Lok Sabha election may go down in history as a different kind of electoral battle, there is no denying the fact that the Communist movement is facing a crisis of existence, almost a century after its birth in India.

Be it in Kerala or Bengal, and to a certain extent, Tripura and Begusarai, it may lose at the hands of secular parties and not the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It is certainly time for introspection for the mainstream Communist movement in India.

Interestingly, the Left has bounced back in Nepal, where they came to power 16 months ago, or in Mexico, where they won an election last summer. These developments took place more than a quarter century after the collapse of the Reds in Russia. In the same way, China is mostly Communist in name, while post-Castro Cuba is a different country now.

The Indian Communists may have their own political compulsions in Kerala where they are in power and the only force strong enough to take on the Congress. The saffron party has a relatively small base in that state. But in Bengal, there was some possibility of an alliance between the Left and Congress as they had contested the last Assembly election together, yet no such seat-sharing arrangement could be worked out this time. 
 
Notwithstanding the failure of an alliance with secular parties, people, in general, recognise contributions of the Left in fighting political opponents — be it Congress in the past, or the BJP now.

Perhaps they are missing personalities like Harkishen Singh Surjeet, Indrajit Gupta, Jyoti Basu and Somnath Chatterjee. Today there is a general feeling among the non-Communist secular parties that the Left is not following the line of Sitaram Yechury, but of Prakash Karat, the present general secretary of the CPM.

It was in Kerala that the first ever elected Communist government in the world came to power in 1957, when EMS Namboodiripad became the chief minister of the state. If things continue to go the way they are, Pinarayi Vijayan may end up becoming the last elected Chief Minister from the Left!

They have not only lost power in Bengal and Tripura, but have also become more or less politically irrelevant in these two states.

Incidentally, Kanhaiya Kumar the former president of the Jawaharlal Nehru University Students’ Union — perhaps by default — has brought a glimmer of hope for the Communist movement. But he is too young and too new to the electoral battle of such a complex constituency as Begusarai, from where he has been fielded. That is why several Left-leaning activists have questioned the wisdom of the CPI to expose him to the rough and tumble of polls so early in his career. They are now asking as to why the Communists failed to build an alliance in Bengal and Begusarai — even if there was no scope for it in Kerala.

The Communists cannot put all the blame on the Congress in Bengal or the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar. From the very beginning, they started making unrealistic demands regarding sharing of seats in Bihar and Bengal. For example, the CPI demanded six Lok Sabha seats from the ‘Grand Alliance’ without any presence in the Bihar Assembly. 
 
The big question is even if Kanhaiya wins from Begusarai, how many seats will the Communists win in the rest of the country?

If the Communists end up winning just a handful of seats, Kanhaiya would not be in a position to wage the so-called war against communalism alone. It seems that the hard-line ideological position is taking its toll on the Communist movement in India.

Strangely, even the bitterest rivals of Communists have never questioned their political commitment and honesty of their leaders. Even in Bengal, where they ruled for 34 years, nobody charged them with corruption, though they have repeatedly been blamed for violence and political arm-twisting.

If the Indian Left is really in the lurch, they themselves are to blame. They perhaps failed to read the writing on the wall. 
 
(This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-left-s-unrealistic-poll-demands-scuttled-alliances-2744403">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp;

Though the 2019 Lok Sabha election may go down in history as a different kind of electoral battle, there is no denying the fact that the Communist movement is facing a crisis of existence, almost a century after its birth in India.

Though the 2019 Lok Sabha election may go down in history as a different kind of electoral battle, there is no denying the fact that the Communist movement is facing a crisis of existence, almost a century after its birth in India. Be it in Kerala or Bengal, and to a certain extent, Tripura and Begusarai, it may lose at the hands of secular parties and not the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). It is certainly time for introspection for the mainstream Communist movement in India. Interestingly, the Left has bounced back in Nepal, where they came to power 16 months ago, or in Mexico, where they won an election last summer. These developments took place more than a quarter century after the collapse of the Reds in Russia. In the same way, China is mostly Communist in name, while post-Castro Cuba is a different country now. The Indian Communists may have their own political compulsions in Kerala where they are in power and the only force strong enough to take on the Congress. The saffron party has a relatively small base in that state. But in Bengal, there was some possibility of an alliance between the Left and Congress as they had contested the last Assembly election together, yet no such seat-sharing arrangement could be worked out this time. Notwithstanding the failure of an alliance with secular parties, people, in general, recognise contributions of the Left in fighting political opponents — be it Congress in the past, or the BJP now. Perhaps they are missing personalities like Harkishen Singh Surjeet, Indrajit Gupta, Jyoti Basu and Somnath Chatterjee. Today there is a general feeling among the non-Communist secular parties that the Left is not following the line of Sitaram Yechury, but of Prakash Karat, the present general secretary of the CPM. It was in Kerala that the first ever elected Communist government in the world came to power in 1957, when EMS Namboodiripad became the chief minister of the state. If things continue to go the way they are, Pinarayi Vijayan may end up becoming the last elected Chief Minister from the Left! They have not only lost power in Bengal and Tripura, but have also become more or less politically irrelevant in these two states. Incidentally, Kanhaiya Kumar the former president of the Jawaharlal Nehru University Students’ Union — perhaps by default — has brought a glimmer of hope for the Communist movement. But he is too young and too new to the electoral battle of such a complex constituency as Begusarai, from where he has been fielded. That is why several Left-leaning activists have questioned the wisdom of the CPI to expose him to the rough and tumble of polls so early in his career. They are now asking as to why the Communists failed to build an alliance in Bengal and Begusarai — even if there was no scope for it in Kerala. The Communists cannot put all the blame on the Congress in Bengal or the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in Bihar. From the very beginning, they started making unrealistic demands regarding sharing of seats in Bihar and Bengal. For example, the CPI demanded six Lok Sabha seats from the ‘Grand Alliance’ without any presence in the Bihar Assembly. The big question is even if Kanhaiya wins from Begusarai, how many seats will the Communists win in the rest of the country? If the Communists end up winning just a handful of seats, Kanhaiya would not be in a position to wage the so-called war against communalism alone. It seems that the hard-line ideological position is taking its toll on the Communist movement in India. Strangely, even the bitterest rivals of Communists have never questioned their political commitment and honesty of their leaders. Even in Bengal, where they ruled for 34 years, nobody charged them with corruption, though they have repeatedly been blamed for violence and political arm-twisting. If the Indian Left is really in the lurch, they themselves are to blame. They perhaps failed to read the writing on the wall. (This article was originally published on The DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

2019 Lok Sabha polls: Left’s unrealistic poll demands scuttled alliances

This segment of India Election Watch brings to you the story of veteran politicians. Watch this video to know about parliamentarians with most terms.

India Election Watch: All you need to know about parliamentarians with most terms

Watch this segment of India Election Watch for latest updates of India Election as on May 1st, 2019.

India Election Watch; May 1st, 2019

Congress writes to TRS (Telangana Rashtra Samithi) chief, seeks support for Rahul Gandhi. Watch this video to know more.

India Election Watch: Congress seeks TRS support for Rahul Gandhi

In this edition of WION's Know Your Candidate, we feature Arjun Ram Meghwal. Know more about him by watching this video.

India Election Watch: Know Your Candidate, who is Arjun Ram Meghwal?

While addressing a public rally in Uttar Pradesh’s Barabanki today, Congress President Rahul Gandhi took jibe at PM Modi and said, “Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav’s controller is in the hands of PM Modi. Modi can’t suppress me, Modi can suppress BSP and SP.” Watch this video to know more.

India Election Watch: PM Modi can suppress BSP-SP but not me, says Rahul Gandhi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday attacked the troika of Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party at a rally here while skipping any mention of Ram Temple. Watch this video to know more.

India Election Watch: Prime Minister Modi campaigns in UP, MP

Rally roster for top leaders for May 1st, 2019. Watch more to know.

India Election Watch: Rally roster for top leaders for May 1st, 2019

This segment of India Election Watch brings to you top election headlines of the day.

India Election Watch: Watch top election stories

A look at the popular slogans of the Indian elections

This segment of WION brings to you top stories of the morning from across the globe. Watch this video to get updated with the latest information.

WION Speed News: Watch top national and international news of the morning, April 29th 2019