Ryo Tatsuki prophecy: Clues that prove Japan megaquake won't happen. But, next 30 years remain a risk

The Japan earthquake prediction for July 5 might not come true. There are subtle hints, and some loud ones too, that indicate that a magnitude 8 temblor is not coming anytime soon. However, that doesn't mean that it won't happen in the coming years. The manga prediction by Ryo Tatsuki for Japan points to major devastation on July 5. A passage reads, "The Ocean floor between Japan and the Philippines will crack. Huge waves will rise in all directions." Japan's government has warned of more possible strong earthquakes. A quake with a preliminary magnitude of 5.4 was recorded in the islands in southwestern Japan on Saturday, one in a series of over 1,000 quakes since 21 June. Could an 8 or higher quake occur soon? Here's why that might not happen.

The Japan earthquake prediction for July 5 might not come true. There are subtle hints, and some loud ones too, that indicate that a magnitude 8 temblor is not coming anytime soon. However, that doesn't mean that it won't happen in the coming years. The manga prediction by Ryo Tatsuki for Japan points to major devastation on July 5. A passage reads, "The Ocean floor between Japan and the Philippines will crack. Huge waves will rise in all directions." Japan's government has warned of more possible strong earthquakes. A quake with a preliminary magnitude of 5.4 was recorded in the islands in southwestern Japan on Saturday, one in a series of over 1,000 quakes since 21 June. Could an 8 or higher quake occur soon? Here's why that might not happen.

Humans have not developed a foolproof technology to predict earthquakes. Ryo Tatsuki is believed to have dreamt about a terrible megaquake and tsunami on July 5. She wrote about it in her manga comic in 1999. The book was republished in 2021 with the prophecy for the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake that slammed Tōhoku on the cover page. But, backing it up with science is not possible since seismic activity cannot be predicted with any instruments invented to date. Ebita added, "With our current scientific knowledge, it's difficult to predict the exact time, place or scale of an earthquake."

Magnitude 8 and above tremors have historically hit the Nankai Trough roughly every 100 to 200 years. The last one was in 1946. By this logic, the next one shouldn't happen before 2046. This is based on records spanning 1,400 years. In 1946, an 8.1 to 8.4 earthquake slammed Northern Honshū to Kyūshū. Nearly 36,000 homes were destroyed in southern Honshū, and it resulted in 16–20-foot tsunami waves.

An official analysis in January 2025 raised the risk of a megaquake hitting the Nankai Trough region within the next 30 years to 75–82 per cent. In March, an official estimate noted that such an earthquake and a tsunami could kill 298,000 people and result in losses worth $2 trillion. This means that a disaster is still far away, and not likely to happen anytime soon.

The Nankai Trough, a subduction zone where the Philippine Sea Plate is being pushed beneath Japan, is being struck by slow-slip earthquakes, a study published in Science has found. Advanced borehole observatories revealed that subtle seismic movements near the fault have been triggering shallow quakes for years. They do not generate violent tremors, aren't sudden and gradually cut through the ground. The strain causes ruptures at the rate of only millimetres per day. If this is happening in the Nankai Trough, then a sudden major jolt is unlikely.

What's more! The author of the comic, Ryo Tatsuki has herself urged people to "make their own interpretation", but not be scared. She told the local media that she is not a "prophet" and hasn't predicted anything. "I dreamed of a great disaster. The waters of the Pacific Ocean south of the Japanese archipelago will rise," a passage reads. The author told Mainichi Shimbun, "I think it is important to not get overly swept up in the process and to act appropriately in consideration of expert opinion." Tatsuki believes the interest in the prophecy is a positive sign and should lead to "safety measures and preparedness."