In 2023, US real median household income rose by 4%, according to the US census bureau. This marks a notable improvement as the economy continued its recovery to pre-pandemic levels. However, despite rising incomes, the poverty rate in the US also saw an increase.

2023 US Economic Overview: Income gains, inflation eases, poverty grows

As the US Federal Reserve prepares for its upcoming meeting on September 17-18, analysts are closely watching the potential for a significant interest rate reduction. The possibility of a 50 basis points cut has sparked a mix of opinions among financial experts, with some arguing it could be a strategic move to bolster economic growth without alarming the markets.

Understanding the market sentiment<o:p></o:p>

Michael Yoshikami, CEO of Destination Wealth Management, has been a vocal advocate for the potential rate cut. During an appearance on CNBC's 'Squawk Box Europe,' Yoshikami suggested that a substantial reduction could be executed without causing undue panic in the financial markets. "That would be seen as a very encouraging sign that the Fed is taking necessary steps to bolster job growth. I believe the Fed is now prepared to take proactive measures," he stated.

This sentiment is echoed by Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz, who has argued that the Fed should implement a half-point interest rate reduction. Stiglitz believes that the previous tightening measures were perhaps too rapid and excessive, making a rate cut a necessary step to correct the balance.

Market expectations are currently leaning towards a rate cut, although the magnitude of the adjustment remains uncertain. A recent disappointing jobs report has raised concerns about a weakening labor market, influencing traders to reassess their expectations for the cut size. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders estimate a 75 per cent probability of a 25 basis points cut, with a 25 per cent chance for a 50 basis points reduction.

Despite these concerns, key economic fundamentals such as manufacturing and unemployment rates remain resilient. Thanos Papasavvas, chief officer at ABP Invest, noted that while there is growing anxiety about a possible economic slowdown, his firm is not particularly worried about entering a US recession. "We're not particularly worried about entering a US recession," he stated, emphasizing that the fundamental aspects of the economy are still strong.

Balancing fear and confidence<o:p></o:p>

However, not all analysts share the same optimism. Economist George Lagarias has warned that a significant rate cut could send a troubling message to the markets. "I don't see the urgency for a 50 basis point cut," Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars, told CNBC's 'Squawk Box.' He cautioned that such a move could convey the wrong message, potentially signaling urgency and creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of economic downturn.

Yoshikami, however, believes that concerns about an impending recession are exaggerated. He highlighted that both unemployment and interest rates are low by historical standards, and corporate earnings have remained robust. The recent market decline, which marked the S&amp;P 500's worst week since March 2023, was attributed to "massive profits" accumulated the previous month. Despite a volatile start, August saw all major indices recording gains, while September is typically characterized by weaker trading activity.

The delicate balance of economic policy<o:p></o:p>

As the Federal Reserve approaches its decision on rate cuts, market participants will keenly watch how the central bank will balance inflation and growth. Hence, the potential 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve is a topic of significant debate among financial analysts. While some see it as a necessary step to bolster economic growth, others caution against the potential risks.

As the US Federal Reserve prepares for its upcoming meeting on September 17-18, analysts are closely watching the potential for a significant interest rate reduction.

As the US Federal Reserve prepares for its upcoming meeting on September 17-18, analysts are closely watching the potential for a significant interest rate reduction. The possibility of a 50 basis points cut has sparked a mix of opinions among financial experts, with some arguing it could be a strategic move to bolster economic growth without alarming the markets. Understanding the market sentiment Michael Yoshikami, CEO of Destination Wealth Management, has been a vocal advocate for the potential rate cut. During an appearance on CNBC's 'Squawk Box Europe,' Yoshikami suggested that a substantial reduction could be executed without causing undue panic in the financial markets. "That would be seen as a very encouraging sign that the Fed is taking necessary steps to bolster job growth. I believe the Fed is now prepared to take proactive measures," he stated. This sentiment is echoed by Nobel laureate economist Joseph Stiglitz, who has argued that the Fed should implement a half-point interest rate reduction. Stiglitz believes that the previous tightening measures were perhaps too rapid and excessive, making a rate cut a necessary step to correct the balance. Market expectations are currently leaning towards a rate cut, although the magnitude of the adjustment remains uncertain. A recent disappointing jobs report has raised concerns about a weakening labor market, influencing traders to reassess their expectations for the cut size. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, traders estimate a 75 per cent probability of a 25 basis points cut, with a 25 per cent chance for a 50 basis points reduction. Despite these concerns, key economic fundamentals such as manufacturing and unemployment rates remain resilient. Thanos Papasavvas, chief officer at ABP Invest, noted that while there is growing anxiety about a possible economic slowdown, his firm is not particularly worried about entering a US recession. "We're not particularly worried about entering a US recession," he stated, emphasizing that the fundamental aspects of the economy are still strong. Balancing fear and confidence However, not all analysts share the same optimism. Economist George Lagarias has warned that a significant rate cut could send a troubling message to the markets. "I don't see the urgency for a 50 basis point cut," Lagarias, chief economist at Forvis Mazars, told CNBC's 'Squawk Box.' He cautioned that such a move could convey the wrong message, potentially signaling urgency and creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of economic downturn. Yoshikami, however, believes that concerns about an impending recession are exaggerated. He highlighted that both unemployment and interest rates are low by historical standards, and corporate earnings have remained robust. The recent market decline, which marked the S&P 500's worst week since March 2023, was attributed to "massive profits" accumulated the previous month. Despite a volatile start, August saw all major indices recording gains, while September is typically characterized by weaker trading activity. The delicate balance of economic policy As the Federal Reserve approaches its decision on rate cuts, market participants will keenly watch how the central bank will balance inflation and growth. Hence, the potential 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve is a topic of significant debate among financial analysts. While some see it as a necessary step to bolster economic growth, others caution against the potential risks.

Fed's potential 50-basis point’s rate cut: Analysts weigh in on economic implications

In a recent address at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sought to alleviate concerns about the US economy, emphasizing its resilience and stability. Her remarks came on the heels of another month of disappointing employment figures, which have sparked apprehension among investors and analysts as detailed in a report by CNBC. Further, Janet Yellen said that she believes the U.S. economy is healthy and that recent months of cooler jobs data is a signal of a soft landing, not a recession.

Yellen's address aimed to reassure the public that the US economy remains solid and is heading toward what economists term a "soft landing." This concept involves the Federal Reserve&nbsp;raising interest rates to curb inflation and implementing cuts before a recession occurs. Despite the recent job data, Yellen expressed confidence in the economy's trajectory.

"We're observing a decrease in the urgency surrounding hiring and job vacancies, but significant layoffs are not occurring," Yellen noted. She acknowledged the deceleration in job growth compared to the hiring surge following the US reopening after the Covid-19 pandemic but emphasized that the economy is "well into a recovery" and "essentially functioning at full employment."

Job market trends and economic indicators<o:p></o:p>

The latest employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 142,000 in August, falling short of the Dow Jones prediction of 161,000. This shortfall led to a decline in the S&amp;P 500, marking the worst week since March 2023. However, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 per cent, and job growth in August surpassed that of July.

Yellen highlighted these positive indicators, stating, "I don't see any warning signs." She also pointed out the significant reduction in inflation, which has been a key focus for economic policymakers. "It has truly been remarkable to reduce inflation as significantly as we have. Most people would refer to this as the soft landing," she asserted.

&nbsp;Market reactions, future outlook and federal reserve expectations

The recent job data has reignited fears of a potential recession in the US, particularly concerning the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve a soft landing. Analysts widely anticipate that the Fed will reduce interest rates this month to support the economy.

Yellen's comments were aimed at calming these fears, emphasizing that the US is moving in the right direction. Her reassurance is crucial as the economy navigates a period of transition from rapid growth to more sustainable levels.

Further, despite the challenges posed by the recent job reports, Yellen's message was one of optimism and stability. She underscored the economy's resilience and its ability to adapt to changing conditions. The decrease in job vacancies and the slowdown in hiring urgency are seen as signs of a normalizing job market rather than indicators of a looming recession.

As the US economy continues on its path toward a soft landing, Yellen's reassurances are likely to influence market sentiment and investor confidence. Her statements reflect a broader consensus among economic policymakers that the US is well-positioned to navigate the current economic landscape without significant disruptions.

Therefore, Yellen's address at the Texas Tribune Festival provided a much-needed perspective on the US economy's current state and its future trajectory. As the economy moves forward, her confidence in its stability and resilience is a reassuring note for both investors and the general public.

In a recent address at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sought to alleviate concerns about the US economy, emphasizing its resilience and stability.

In a recent address at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen sought to alleviate concerns about the US economy, emphasizing its resilience and stability. Her remarks came on the heels of another month of disappointing employment figures, which have sparked apprehension among investors and analysts as detailed in a report by CNBC. Further, Janet Yellen said that she believes the U.S. economy is healthy and that recent months of cooler jobs data is a signal of a soft landing, not a recession. Yellen's address aimed to reassure the public that the US economy remains solid and is heading toward what economists term a "soft landing." This concept involves the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to curb inflation and implementing cuts before a recession occurs. Despite the recent job data, Yellen expressed confidence in the economy's trajectory. "We're observing a decrease in the urgency surrounding hiring and job vacancies, but significant layoffs are not occurring," Yellen noted. She acknowledged the deceleration in job growth compared to the hiring surge following the US reopening after the Covid-19 pandemic but emphasized that the economy is "well into a recovery" and "essentially functioning at full employment." Job market trends and economic indicators The latest employment figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that nonfarm payrolls rose by 142,000 in August, falling short of the Dow Jones prediction of 161,000. This shortfall led to a decline in the S&P 500, marking the worst week since March 2023. However, the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.2 per cent, and job growth in August surpassed that of July. Yellen highlighted these positive indicators, stating, "I don't see any warning signs." She also pointed out the significant reduction in inflation, which has been a key focus for economic policymakers. "It has truly been remarkable to reduce inflation as significantly as we have. Most people would refer to this as the soft landing," she asserted. Market reactions, future outlook and federal reserve expectations The recent job data has reignited fears of a potential recession in the US, particularly concerning the Federal Reserve's ability to achieve a soft landing. Analysts widely anticipate that the Fed will reduce interest rates this month to support the economy. Yellen's comments were aimed at calming these fears, emphasizing that the US is moving in the right direction. Her reassurance is crucial as the economy navigates a period of transition from rapid growth to more sustainable levels. Further, despite the challenges posed by the recent job reports, Yellen's message was one of optimism and stability. She underscored the economy's resilience and its ability to adapt to changing conditions. The decrease in job vacancies and the slowdown in hiring urgency are seen as signs of a normalizing job market rather than indicators of a looming recession. As the US economy continues on its path toward a soft landing, Yellen's reassurances are likely to influence market sentiment and investor confidence. Her statements reflect a broader consensus among economic policymakers that the US is well-positioned to navigate the current economic landscape without significant disruptions. Therefore, Yellen's address at the Texas Tribune Festival provided a much-needed perspective on the US economy's current state and its future trajectory. As the economy moves forward, her confidence in its stability and resilience is a reassuring note for both investors and the general public.

US economy remains solid, heading toward soft landing, says Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen

As the cost-of-living crisis intensifies, New Zealand is witnessing a significant exodus of its citizens, with over 131,200 Kiwis leaving for foreign shores in the past year alone. This mass migration, which marks a 70 percent increase since June 2019, stems from a perfect storm of soaring prices, elevated interest rates, and a shortage of quality employment opportunities as detailed in a CNBC report.&nbsp;<o:p></o:p>

The growing trend is particularly alarming for younger generations, as over half of the emigrants are aged between 20 and 39. For instance, Wilson Ong, a 32-year-old manager in the fashion retail industry, expressed his concerns about the limited job market back home. He stated, "In New Zealand, it feels like the job market limits your opportunities and the experiences you can gain."

Persistent inflation, high cost of living is a serious challenge for the economy 
 
The situation has worsened due to the high cost of living, which has seen inflation rates spike to over 7.3 per cent at their peak, affecting the purchasing power of many New Zealanders. Although the rate has decreased to 3.3 per cent as of June 2024, it still remains above the Reserve Bank's target of 1 to 3 per cent. This economic pressure has prompted many citizens to seek a better quality of life abroad. 
 
Australasia remains a prime destination for New Zealanders seeking greener pastures. The Australian economy, regarded as more robust, actively recruits Kiwi workers through a special visa programme that eases migration. Many Kiwis are drawn not only by the better job prospects but also by significantly higher salary offers. Reports suggest that a construction foreman in Sydney can earn over 60 percent more than their Auckland counterparts. 
 
Economic experts, including Shamubeel Eaqub, warn that without a swift improvement in the job market and economic conditions, the flow of New Zealand's economic refugees is likely to continue. He noted, "I believe the economy will worsen before it improves, attributing many issues to post-Covid policies, including the sustained high interest rates."<o:p></o:p>

This shift in outlook calls for urgent government intervention to rejuvenate the economy and retain its talent. Without strategic policy changes and a renewed focus on job creation, New Zealand risks losing its young professionals to countries promising greater opportunities and stability. 
 
The current emigration trend reflects a broader narrative of discontent among New Zealand's youth, who feel increasingly trapped by economic circumstances. As the country grapples with these challenges, the government faces mounting pressure to address the underlying issues driving its citizens abroad. 
 
<o:p></o:p>

As the cost-of-living crisis intensifies, New Zealand is witnessing a significant exodus of its citizens, with over 131,200 Kiwis leaving for foreign shores in the past year alone.

As the cost-of-living crisis intensifies, New Zealand is witnessing a significant exodus of its citizens, with over 131,200 Kiwis leaving for foreign shores in the past year alone. This mass migration, which marks a 70 percent increase since June 2019, stems from a perfect storm of soaring prices, elevated interest rates, and a shortage of quality employment opportunities as detailed in a CNBC report. The growing trend is particularly alarming for younger generations, as over half of the emigrants are aged between 20 and 39. For instance, Wilson Ong, a 32-year-old manager in the fashion retail industry, expressed his concerns about the limited job market back home. He stated, "In New Zealand, it feels like the job market limits your opportunities and the experiences you can gain." Persistent inflation, high cost of living is a serious challenge for the economy The situation has worsened due to the high cost of living, which has seen inflation rates spike to over 7.3 per cent at their peak, affecting the purchasing power of many New Zealanders. Although the rate has decreased to 3.3 per cent as of June 2024, it still remains above the Reserve Bank's target of 1 to 3 per cent. This economic pressure has prompted many citizens to seek a better quality of life abroad. Australasia remains a prime destination for New Zealanders seeking greener pastures. The Australian economy, regarded as more robust, actively recruits Kiwi workers through a special visa programme that eases migration. Many Kiwis are drawn not only by the better job prospects but also by significantly higher salary offers. Reports suggest that a construction foreman in Sydney can earn over 60 percent more than their Auckland counterparts. Economic experts, including Shamubeel Eaqub, warn that without a swift improvement in the job market and economic conditions, the flow of New Zealand's economic refugees is likely to continue. He noted, "I believe the economy will worsen before it improves, attributing many issues to post-Covid policies, including the sustained high interest rates." This shift in outlook calls for urgent government intervention to rejuvenate the economy and retain its talent. Without strategic policy changes and a renewed focus on job creation, New Zealand risks losing its young professionals to countries promising greater opportunities and stability. The current emigration trend reflects a broader narrative of discontent among New Zealand's youth, who feel increasingly trapped by economic circumstances. As the country grapples with these challenges, the government faces mounting pressure to address the underlying issues driving its citizens abroad.

Economic refugees flee from New Zealand as cost-of-living crisis deepens

The Maldives, a popular tourist destination, is facing a severe financial crisis as investors rush to offload the country's Islamic bonds, known as sukuk. The selloff has intensified in recent weeks, with the dollar-denominated sukuk due in 2026 dropping below 70 cents on the dollar, a record low. <o:p></o:p>

Further, the risk of default looms large as the Maldives grapples with deteriorating external financing and liquidity metrics. Recent moves by the Bank of Maldives to cap foreign currency spending, coupled with a second Fitch downgrade since June, have triggered a rush to dump the country's debt.<o:p></o:p>

Looming debt crisis<o:p></o:p>

The Maldives has about $500 million in outstanding sukuk debt due in 2026, and all eyes will be on the October 8 coupon payment.&nbsp;Purvi Harlalka, a senior emerging-market sovereign debt strategist at M&amp;G, noted in a Bloomberg report that "without a last-minute foreign exchange infusion from China, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), or India, the non-payment of the October coupon is a plausible scenario.<o:p></o:p>

"Despite gross reserves of $395 million in June, the country's usable reserves are just $45 million.&nbsp;The Maldives Monetary Authority is negotiating a $400 million currency swap with India, but Fitch's downgrade to CC underscores rising default concerns.<o:p></o:p>

What are going to&nbsp;be the implications for the economy?<o:p></o:p>

The Maldives' economy, heavily reliant on tourism, has been recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the country remains dependent on imports and a dollar peg that continues to strain reserves.<o:p></o:p>

Soeren Moerch, a portfolio manager at Danske Bank, said the bank sold most of its bonds in early summer as reserves fell. "Things are much worse now," he said, adding that the key question is whether Muslim nations will allow the Maldives to default on a sukuk bond?<o:p></o:p>

Geopolitical tensions<o:p></o:p>

The ruling People's National Congress, led by pro-China President Mohamed Muizzu, secured a parliamentary majority earlier this year, complicating the geopolitical landscape.&nbsp;The "India Out" campaign and lack of USD liquidity are red flags for some investors, like Maciej Woznica of Coeli Frontier Markets, who remain cautious about reinvesting in the country.<o:p></o:p>

Hence, it is clear that Maldives faces a severe financial crisis as investors dump the country's Islamic bonds due to fears of default. The Maldives government must act quickly to address the deteriorating economic situation and secure foreign exchange infusions to avoid a potential default on its sukuk debt. Further, the governments also needs to think through a way to completely revive the economy along with maintaining healthy relations with neighbors. <o:p></o:p>

The Maldives, a popular tourist destination, is facing a severe financial crisis as investors rush to offload the country's Islamic bonds, known as sukuk. The selloff has intensified in recent weeks, with the dollar-denominated sukuk due in 2026 dropping below 70 cents on the dollar, a record low.

The Maldives, a popular tourist destination, is facing a severe financial crisis as investors rush to offload the country's Islamic bonds, known as sukuk. The selloff has intensified in recent weeks, with the dollar-denominated sukuk due in 2026 dropping below 70 cents on the dollar, a record low. Further, the risk of default looms large as the Maldives grapples with deteriorating external financing and liquidity metrics. Recent moves by the Bank of Maldives to cap foreign currency spending, coupled with a second Fitch downgrade since June, have triggered a rush to dump the country's debt. Looming debt crisis The Maldives has about $500 million in outstanding sukuk debt due in 2026, and all eyes will be on the October 8 coupon payment. Purvi Harlalka, a senior emerging-market sovereign debt strategist at M&G, noted in a Bloomberg report that "without a last-minute foreign exchange infusion from China, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), or India, the non-payment of the October coupon is a plausible scenario. "Despite gross reserves of $395 million in June, the country's usable reserves are just $45 million. The Maldives Monetary Authority is negotiating a $400 million currency swap with India, but Fitch's downgrade to CC underscores rising default concerns. What are going to be the implications for the economy? The Maldives' economy, heavily reliant on tourism, has been recovering from the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the country remains dependent on imports and a dollar peg that continues to strain reserves. Soeren Moerch, a portfolio manager at Danske Bank, said the bank sold most of its bonds in early summer as reserves fell. "Things are much worse now," he said, adding that the key question is whether Muslim nations will allow the Maldives to default on a sukuk bond? Geopolitical tensions The ruling People's National Congress, led by pro-China President Mohamed Muizzu, secured a parliamentary majority earlier this year, complicating the geopolitical landscape. The "India Out" campaign and lack of USD liquidity are red flags for some investors, like Maciej Woznica of Coeli Frontier Markets, who remain cautious about reinvesting in the country. Hence, it is clear that Maldives faces a severe financial crisis as investors dump the country's Islamic bonds due to fears of default. The Maldives government must act quickly to address the deteriorating economic situation and secure foreign exchange infusions to avoid a potential default on its sukuk debt. Further, the governments also needs to think through a way to completely revive the economy along with maintaining healthy relations with neighbors.

Traders dump Maldives debt amid growing default risks

Despite broader economic challenges in the US’ gig economy platforms are thriving. New-age internet first companies have reported impressive growth in revenue this earnings season. So, what does this mean for consumer trends in the world's largest economy? That's what this next report decodes.

Gig economy thrives despite recessionary fears in the US

Until the FED meeting on Wednesday last week, expectations were for the US Federal reserve to lay the path for rate cuts in September. But data since then has reignited recession worries. Now, the narrative on fed rate cuts is not - if, and when...But by how much? This next report tells you more...

A soft landing or US recession on the cards?

US recession worries weighs on markets

The American economy may be nearing a consumer-led recession as spending patterns show worrying signs. Recent data from the US census indicate a 1.3% year-over-year drop in retail sales volume over the past quarter. This follows a 4% decrease in retail sales in q1, suggesting a potential recession.

US consumer spending falls, recession near?

After enduring a challenging period marked by economic downturn, the United Kingdom has emerged from recession. According to the official data cited by UK media outlets, the country's economy saw a growth of 0.6 per cent between January and March. Reacting to this, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said that the data is&nbsp;"proof that the economy is returning to full health for the first time since the pandemic".

“We’re growing this year and have the best outlook among European G7 countries over the next six years, with wages growing faster than inflation, energy prices falling and tax cuts worth £900 ($1,128) to the average worker hitting bank accounts," Hunt added.&nbsp;

According to data from the Office for National Statistics, the UK's economy experienced its most robust growth with an uptick from the previous quarter's contraction of 0.3 per cent in GDP. This positive momentum is seen as a timely boost for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as he prepares for an election expected to be held in January next year. Sunak took to social media to express his optimism.&nbsp;

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He wrote, "The economy has turned a corner. Today's news proves that. We know things are still tough for many people, but the plan is working, and we must stick to it." Following the release of the data, the value of the British pound strengthened against the US dollar.&nbsp;

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This growth was primarily driven by the services sector, encompassing industries such as hospitality and entertainment. In addition to this, the Office for National Statistics reported growth in the production sector as well. However, there was a contraction in the construction industry during the same period.

<h2>'No time for victory lap'</h2>

Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said this is "no time for Conservative ministers to be doing a victory lap and telling the British people that they have never had it so good".

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“After 14 years of economic chaos, working people are still worse off," she said, adding,&nbsp;"Prices are still significantly higher in the shops, families are paying hundreds of pounds more on monthly mortgage bills, and the economy is forecast to grow by just one per cent next year."

(With inputs from agencies)

After enduring a challenging period marked by economic downturn, the United Kingdom has emerged from recession. According to the official data cited by UK media outlets, the country's economy saw a growth of 0.

After enduring a challenging period marked by economic downturn, the United Kingdom has emerged from recession. According to the official data cited by UK media outlets, the country's economy saw a growth of 0.6 per cent between January and March. Reacting to this, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said that the data is "proof that the economy is returning to full health for the first time since the pandemic". “We’re growing this year and have the best outlook among European G7 countries over the next six years, with wages growing faster than inflation, energy prices falling and tax cuts worth £900 ($1,128) to the average worker hitting bank accounts," Hunt added. According to data from the Office for National Statistics, the UK's economy experienced its most robust growth with an uptick from the previous quarter's contraction of 0.3 per cent in GDP. This positive momentum is seen as a timely boost for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as he prepares for an election expected to be held in January next year. Sunak took to social media to express his optimism. Also Read | Elon Musk claims aliens have never visited Earth and here's the proof... He wrote, "The economy has turned a corner. Today's news proves that. We know things are still tough for many people, but the plan is working, and we must stick to it." Following the release of the data, the value of the British pound strengthened against the US dollar. Also Read | Russia-Ukraine war: Zelensky sacks security chief after failed assassination plot This growth was primarily driven by the services sector, encompassing industries such as hospitality and entertainment. In addition to this, the Office for National Statistics reported growth in the production sector as well. However, there was a contraction in the construction industry during the same period. 'No time for victory lap' Labour's shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves said this is "no time for Conservative ministers to be doing a victory lap and telling the British people that they have never had it so good". Watch | Russia-Ukraine war: Zelensky addresses 'difficult situations' at Eastern frontline × “After 14 years of economic chaos, working people are still worse off," she said, adding, "Prices are still significantly higher in the shops, families are paying hundreds of pounds more on monthly mortgage bills, and the economy is forecast to grow by just one per cent next year." (With inputs from agencies)

UK recession blues over with economy 'returning to full health', says Chancellor Jeremy Hunt

There could be some bad news for the US economy. A noted forecaster claims that the country is already in recession. Danielle Dimartino Booth adds that the US may be following the footsteps of China, where the government is collecting more debt to prop up economic growth.

Top Forecaster: US may be following China's footsteps

Japan's economy managed to dodge a technical recession, as per revised government data released on Monday.

The revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the October-December period indicated an expansion, although weaker than anticipated, sparking concerns over the slow economic recovery.

According to the Cabinet Office, the revised GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 0.4 per cent, a notable improvement from the initial estimate of a 0.4 per cent contraction.

However, this upward revision fell short of economists' expectations, with a median forecast predicting a 1.1 per cent uptick in GDP, as revealed by a Reuters poll.

Regardless of the revision, concerns lingered over the dull performance of domestic demand, particularly in consumption, as noted by Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research and Technologies.

Sakai remarked, "The headline is an upward revision, but domestic demand remains lackluster, particularly in consumption".

The positive revision in GDP figures was primarily driven by a 2.0 per cent increase in capital expenditure quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the preliminary estimate of a 0.1 per cent decrease.

Nonetheless, it still fell short of the median market forecast of a 2.5 per cent rise.

On the other hand, private consumption, a component constituting approximately 60 per cent of Japan's economy, experienced a decline of 0.3 per cent in the October-December period, slightly worse than the initial estimate.

Factors such as seafood and household appliances contributed to the downward pressure on consumption.

External demand contributed 0.2 percentage points to real GDP, remaining unchanged from the preliminary reading.

However, concerns regarding the current quarter loomed large, with predictions of a potential contraction due to various factors such as the slowdown in the Chinese economy, production halts at Toyota Motor Corp, and weak consumption, as per Sakai.

He observed, "In the current January-March quarter, the Japanese economy could suffer contraction after factoring in the slowdown in the Chinese economy, production halt at a unit of Toyota Motor Corp, and weak consumption".

Amid the economic indicators pointing to weaknesses, speculation intensified regarding the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) upcoming decisions.

There were growing expectations that the BOJ might abandon its negative interest rates as early as the following month.

This anticipation was fueled partly by recent hawkish comments from board members, suggesting that Japan was progressing towards the central bank's 2 per cent inflation target.

Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, suggested, "The Bank of Japan will likely abandon the negative interest rates by next month citing a growing prospect of hefty pay hikes at annual wage talks with labor unions".

The looming decision of the BOJ gained further attention with Japan's largest trade union confederation, Rengo, demanding pay raises this year, exceeding 5 per cent for the first time in three decades.

The BOJ has stressed strong wage growth as crucial for unwinding its radical monetary policies spanning over a decade.

However, recent economic data painted a contrasting picture, with real wages shrinking for the 22nd consecutive month in January, and household spending witnessing the largest drop in 35 months.

As the BOJ prepares for its two-day policy-setting meeting scheduled for March 18-19, the economic indicators and demands from labor unions add complexity to the central bank's decision-making process.

(With inputs from Reuters)

Japan's economy managed to dodge a technical recession, as per revised government data released on Monday. The revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the October-December period indicated an expansion, although weaker than anticipated, sparking concerns over the slow economic recovery.

Japan's economy managed to dodge a technical recession, as per revised government data released on Monday. The revised Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the October-December period indicated an expansion, although weaker than anticipated, sparking concerns over the slow economic recovery. According to the Cabinet Office, the revised GDP expanded at an annualised rate of 0.4 per cent, a notable improvement from the initial estimate of a 0.4 per cent contraction. However, this upward revision fell short of economists' expectations, with a median forecast predicting a 1.1 per cent uptick in GDP, as revealed by a Reuters poll. Regardless of the revision, concerns lingered over the dull performance of domestic demand, particularly in consumption, as noted by Saisuke Sakai, senior economist at Mizuho Research and Technologies. Sakai remarked, "The headline is an upward revision, but domestic demand remains lackluster, particularly in consumption". The positive revision in GDP figures was primarily driven by a 2.0 per cent increase in capital expenditure quarter-on-quarter, surpassing the preliminary estimate of a 0.1 per cent decrease. Nonetheless, it still fell short of the median market forecast of a 2.5 per cent rise. On the other hand, private consumption, a component constituting approximately 60 per cent of Japan's economy, experienced a decline of 0.3 per cent in the October-December period, slightly worse than the initial estimate. Factors such as seafood and household appliances contributed to the downward pressure on consumption. External demand contributed 0.2 percentage points to real GDP, remaining unchanged from the preliminary reading. However, concerns regarding the current quarter loomed large, with predictions of a potential contraction due to various factors such as the slowdown in the Chinese economy, production halts at Toyota Motor Corp, and weak consumption, as per Sakai. He observed, "In the current January-March quarter, the Japanese economy could suffer contraction after factoring in the slowdown in the Chinese economy, production halt at a unit of Toyota Motor Corp, and weak consumption". Amid the economic indicators pointing to weaknesses, speculation intensified regarding the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) upcoming decisions. There were growing expectations that the BOJ might abandon its negative interest rates as early as the following month. This anticipation was fueled partly by recent hawkish comments from board members, suggesting that Japan was progressing towards the central bank's 2 per cent inflation target. Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, suggested, "The Bank of Japan will likely abandon the negative interest rates by next month citing a growing prospect of hefty pay hikes at annual wage talks with labor unions". The looming decision of the BOJ gained further attention with Japan's largest trade union confederation, Rengo, demanding pay raises this year, exceeding 5 per cent for the first time in three decades. The BOJ has stressed strong wage growth as crucial for unwinding its radical monetary policies spanning over a decade. However, recent economic data painted a contrasting picture, with real wages shrinking for the 22nd consecutive month in January, and household spending witnessing the largest drop in 35 months. As the BOJ prepares for its two-day policy-setting meeting scheduled for March 18-19, the economic indicators and demands from labor unions add complexity to the central bank's decision-making process. (With inputs from Reuters)

Japan's economy evades recession, but concerns persist over weak recovery

Recession in the US? This is a topic that has leading analysts divided. Fed’s mixed signals regarding rate cuts have prompted a debate on whether America is moving away or inching closer to recession.

Analysts divided: US recession outlook split

Germany's economic landscape is in flux, with the Bundesbank issuing a stark warning of an impending recession. External demand weakens, consumers adopt a cautious stance, and domestic investment is hampered by high borrowing costs. Watch to know more!

Germany likely in recession amid weak demand: Bundesbank

Germany, the powerhouse of Europe's economy, is currently navigating through turbulent economic waters. In its latest report, the Bundesbank has sounded the alarm of a looming recession.

According to the bank, Germany's external demand is weakening; consumers are exercising caution, and soaring borrowing costs hinder domestic investment. Since the onset of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Germany has experienced four consecutive quarters of stagnant or negative growth, posing significant challenges to the broader Eurozone economy.

Critics are raising concerns about the sustainability of Germany's economic model, particularly its heavy reliance on energy-intensive industries. The government, however, contends that the current downturn results from various factors, including heightened energy costs, weakened Chinese demand, and rapid inflation. Nonetheless, foreign industrial demand is declining, exacerbating the strain on Germany's economy.

Following the European Central Bank's decision to increase interest rates, the rise in financing costs has further dampened investment prospects in Germany.

Despite these challenges, the Bundesbank expects a minimal deterioration in the country's labour market, which has historically shown resilience during economic downturns.

However, disruptions in global shipping, although deemed minor, add another layer of complexity to Germany's economic challenges.

Germany, the powerhouse of Europe's economy, is currently navigating through turbulent economic waters. In its latest report, the Bundesbank has sounded the alarm of a looming recession.

Germany, the powerhouse of Europe's economy, is currently navigating through turbulent economic waters. In its latest report, the Bundesbank has sounded the alarm of a looming recession. According to the bank, Germany's external demand is weakening; consumers are exercising caution, and soaring borrowing costs hinder domestic investment. Since the onset of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Germany has experienced four consecutive quarters of stagnant or negative growth, posing significant challenges to the broader Eurozone economy. Critics are raising concerns about the sustainability of Germany's economic model, particularly its heavy reliance on energy-intensive industries. The government, however, contends that the current downturn results from various factors, including heightened energy costs, weakened Chinese demand, and rapid inflation. Nonetheless, foreign industrial demand is declining, exacerbating the strain on Germany's economy. Following the European Central Bank's decision to increase interest rates, the rise in financing costs has further dampened investment prospects in Germany. Despite these challenges, the Bundesbank expects a minimal deterioration in the country's labour market, which has historically shown resilience during economic downturns. However, disruptions in global shipping, although deemed minor, add another layer of complexity to Germany's economic challenges.

Germany teeters on the brink: Recession looms as Europe's economic engine sputters

Key predictions for 2024 were made by Baba Vanga. Some of the predictions came true. Lets have a look.

Baba Vanga's sensational predictions for 2024 that came true

Japan is no longer the third-largest economy in the world. The Asian country has lost that position to Germany, after contracting for the last six months of 2023 and entering a recession. Official data shows that Japan's economy unexpectedly shrank due to weak domestic demand. This has raised uncertainty about the central bank's plans to exit its ultra-easy monetary policy this year.

Japan no longer third-largest economy

In a landscape fraught with economic uncertainties, the United States stands out as a beacon of stability, showcasing a commendable economic performance that leaves global counterparts in the shadows. As the Eurozone grapples with stagnant growth and the Chinese market experiences a period of volatility, the United States has orchestrated a stable economic narrative, and at the heart of this success lies the poise of its consumers.

How US consumers defied recessionary fears

The US economy has defied the odds of a recession to post strong growth figures in the last three months of 2023. The US economy expanded faster than expected in the October-December quarter last year. Strong consumer spending, rising exports, government spending & business investments helped the US To grow at 3.3%.

US economy grows by 3.3% in last three months of 2023

The number of UK businesses on the brink of bankruptcy has skyrocketed. Nearly 50,000 businesses in the country are reportedly on the brink of collapse.

Gravitas: UK to tip into a recession? Nearly 50,000 businesses on 'brink of collapse'

From policymakers to the general public, everyone is hoping for a stable and growing economy in 2024.&nbsp;

The world has been in bad shape since 2020. To begin with, Covid-19 pandemic-related restrictions disrupted day-to-day economic activity. Later, the Ukraine war disrupted global supply chains and impacted commodity prices.

The twin blows contributed to a slowdown in 2023, with the world economy expected to grow by just three per cent.

Global economic projections for 2024, too, are not rosy. Global growth is expected to slow to 2.9 per cent, as per the International Monetary Fund.

"The global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, Ukraine war and the cost-of-living crisis. In retrospect, the resilience has been remarkable. Even so, growth remains slow and uneven, with widening divergences," writes academician Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas in an IMF blog.

A lot would depend on these five factors since they could make-or-break the world economy.

1) Rate cuts by the Fed &amp; other central banks

Everyone expects the US Fed to start cutting rates from April this year. The economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace, and inflation is closer to the Federal Reserve's 2 per cent target.

The US grew at 5.2 per cent in the July-September quarter - the fastest pace of expansion since the last three months of 2021. The annual inflation rate stood at 3.1 per cent at the end of November.

Many expect at least three rate cuts this year, with the monetary cycle likely to continue up to 2025-end. It is estimated that the Fed may go for at least a 2.5 per cent reduction in interest rates over the next 18-24 months.

The rate cuts are likely certain help the global economy, as spending and consumption will get a boost due to the easing monetary policy. This will also give thumbs up to other central banks to follow suit.

Apart from the US Fed, all eyes will be the actions taken by the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of India.

However, if inflation makes a comeback or tensions heighten in West Asia and East Asia, the US central bank may be forced to keep the rates steady or even raise them.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;

2) Geopolitical tensions

The Ukraine war, tensions in West Asia, and the growing rivalry between the US and China have had a significant impact on the global economy in recent years.

These geopolitical events have disrupted economic activities, threatening to fragment global trade into smaller blocks, hamper supply chains, and increase prices of essential commodities.

These tensions will spill over to 2024 too.

"The current conflicts (in Ukraine and West Asia) appear to be long term. At best, they could cause volatility in oil markets. At worst, they could fragment the economy and trade system further," a recent Deutsche Bank analysis reads.

The rivalry between the US and China will be closely watched. Already locked in a trade war since 2018, any further escalation between the two biggest economies could drag global growth and make the world a less integrated place — ‘de-globalised’ in other words.

Any drastic action across the Taiwan straits will have global ramifications, with a particular impact on the semiconductor industry and the ongoing artificial intelligence boom.

More so, a 'black swan' event like the Ukraine war will add to the uncertainties.

3) Recession in advanced countries

Slower economic growth raises the fear of a prolonged recession in 2024.

However, the US – the world’s largest economy – likely to skip recession this year, after defying the odds in 2023.

Though that’s the general consensus, but some outliers believe that unemployment may rise in 2024. This, they argue, will have a ripple effect on consumer spending, leading to a recession.

But the Euro Zone, struggling for a while now, is unlikely to get lucky. Factory output has been declining for over 18 months now. The 20-member currency union will not only enter 2024 in technical recession but there is also a high possibility of long-term trouble for the economy.

The IMF's anticipates a slight recovery in 2024. But a lot would depend on the fine balancing act of curbing inflation – still way above the central bank’s target – and fueling growth.

Any rise in inflation – largely energy-driven – will keep prices elevated and growth in the negative territory.

The worst hit will be the United Kingdom, whose economy is on the cusp of a recession after shrinking in 2023. In fact, the Bank of England has warned of recession around the time of elections, likely to be held in mid-2024. The country is likely to see zero growth this year, irrespective of recession.

4) Growing debt burden

The debt burden is likely to remain a big concern, especially in the developing world.

Debt servicing costs will rise by 39 per cent for the 24 poorest countries this year, as per The World Bank.

The poorest countries face a huge $3.5 trillion debt burden. In the absence of any resolution mechanism, they could default.

As per reports, these countries, often dubbed 'frontier markets', will have to repay about $200 billion of debt in 2024.

This, in the words of Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist, will force developing countries to choice between servicing their public debts and investing in public health, education, and infrastructure.

The focus will be on the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund &amp; China – the biggest lenders. Any resolution to the debt crisis in 2024 will depend on these key players.

5) Elections around the world

Over half of humanity will go to polls, covering at least 40 countries. They represent half of the world’s Gross Domestic Product, raising the stakes for businesses.

India, the United States and the United Kingdom are among the major countries set to go to polls this year.

India is on track to be the third-biggest economy in the world and the markets are betting on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third consecutive&nbsp;term.

In the US, a possible re-election of Donald Trump could push global trade – especially with China – into a tailspin.

Across the Atlantic, all eyes will be on the Labour party, which is tipped to win the UK elections amid the economic crisis.

Any expected or unexpected political changes will have economic implications for the world.

<o:p></o:p>

From policymakers to the general public, everyone is hoping for a stable and growing economy in 2024. The world has been in bad shape since 2020. To begin with, Covid-19 pandemic-related restrictions disrupted day-to-day economic activity.

From policymakers to the general public, everyone is hoping for a stable and growing economy in 2024. The world has been in bad shape since 2020. To begin with, Covid-19 pandemic-related restrictions disrupted day-to-day economic activity. Later, the Ukraine war disrupted global supply chains and impacted commodity prices. The twin blows contributed to a slowdown in 2023, with the world economy expected to grow by just three per cent. Global economic projections for 2024, too, are not rosy. Global growth is expected to slow to 2.9 per cent, as per the International Monetary Fund. "The global economy continues to recover from the pandemic, Ukraine war and the cost-of-living crisis. In retrospect, the resilience has been remarkable. Even so, growth remains slow and uneven, with widening divergences," writes academician Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas in an IMF blog. A lot would depend on these five factors since they could make-or-break the world economy. 1) Rate cuts by the Fed & other central banks Everyone expects the US Fed to start cutting rates from April this year. The economy continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace, and inflation is closer to the Federal Reserve's 2 per cent target. The US grew at 5.2 per cent in the July-September quarter - the fastest pace of expansion since the last three months of 2021. The annual inflation rate stood at 3.1 per cent at the end of November. Many expect at least three rate cuts this year, with the monetary cycle likely to continue up to 2025-end. It is estimated that the Fed may go for at least a 2.5 per cent reduction in interest rates over the next 18-24 months. The rate cuts are likely certain help the global economy, as spending and consumption will get a boost due to the easing monetary policy. This will also give thumbs up to other central banks to follow suit. Apart from the US Fed, all eyes will be the actions taken by the European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the Reserve Bank of India. However, if inflation makes a comeback or tensions heighten in West Asia and East Asia, the US central bank may be forced to keep the rates steady or even raise them. 2) Geopolitical tensions The Ukraine war, tensions in West Asia, and the growing rivalry between the US and China have had a significant impact on the global economy in recent years. These geopolitical events have disrupted economic activities, threatening to fragment global trade into smaller blocks, hamper supply chains, and increase prices of essential commodities. These tensions will spill over to 2024 too. "The current conflicts (in Ukraine and West Asia) appear to be long term. At best, they could cause volatility in oil markets. At worst, they could fragment the economy and trade system further," a recent Deutsche Bank analysis reads. The rivalry between the US and China will be closely watched. Already locked in a trade war since 2018, any further escalation between the two biggest economies could drag global growth and make the world a less integrated place — ‘de-globalised’ in other words. Any drastic action across the Taiwan straits will have global ramifications, with a particular impact on the semiconductor industry and the ongoing artificial intelligence boom. More so, a 'black swan' event like the Ukraine war will add to the uncertainties. 3) Recession in advanced countries Slower economic growth raises the fear of a prolonged recession in 2024. However, the US – the world’s largest economy – likely to skip recession this year, after defying the odds in 2023. Though that’s the general consensus, but some outliers believe that unemployment may rise in 2024. This, they argue, will have a ripple effect on consumer spending, leading to a recession. But the Euro Zone, struggling for a while now, is unlikely to get lucky. Factory output has been declining for over 18 months now. The 20-member currency union will not only enter 2024 in technical recession but there is also a high possibility of long-term trouble for the economy. The IMF's anticipates a slight recovery in 2024. But a lot would depend on the fine balancing act of curbing inflation – still way above the central bank’s target – and fueling growth. Any rise in inflation – largely energy-driven – will keep prices elevated and growth in the negative territory. The worst hit will be the United Kingdom, whose economy is on the cusp of a recession after shrinking in 2023. In fact, the Bank of England has warned of recession around the time of elections, likely to be held in mid-2024. The country is likely to see zero growth this year, irrespective of recession. 4) Growing debt burden The debt burden is likely to remain a big concern, especially in the developing world. Debt servicing costs will rise by 39 per cent for the 24 poorest countries this year, as per The World Bank. The poorest countries face a huge $3.5 trillion debt burden. In the absence of any resolution mechanism, they could default. As per reports, these countries, often dubbed 'frontier markets', will have to repay about $200 billion of debt in 2024. This, in the words of Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist, will force developing countries to choice between servicing their public debts and investing in public health, education, and infrastructure. The focus will be on the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund & China – the biggest lenders. Any resolution to the debt crisis in 2024 will depend on these key players. 5) Elections around the world Over half of humanity will go to polls, covering at least 40 countries. They represent half of the world’s Gross Domestic Product, raising the stakes for businesses. India, the United States and the United Kingdom are among the major countries set to go to polls this year. India is on track to be the third-biggest economy in the world and the markets are betting on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's third consecutive term. In the US, a possible re-election of Donald Trump could push global trade – especially with China – into a tailspin. Across the Atlantic, all eyes will be on the Labour party, which is tipped to win the UK elections amid the economic crisis. Any expected or unexpected political changes will have economic implications for the world.

2024 Economic Outlook: 5 key things to watch out this year

In 2023, economists widely anticipated a recession in the United States as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to combat high inflation. However, the expected economic downturn never materialised. What are the factors that led to the world's largest economy defying grim expectations?

How the US defied a recession in 2023

Data revision puts the UK at risk of a technical recession. The GDP data revision indicates the UK is already in a recession. Economic data pressures the BOE to pivot to rate cuts sooner.

UK Economy shrinks in September quarter

In the Euro zone, the economy is flirting with recession. While economic activity marginally improved in November, consumers are cutting down on spending. this could eventually lead to the economy contracting in the coming weeks.

Economy on track to contract in October-December quarter | World Business Watch

The fears of a recession are back again in the United Kingdom with Britain's hard-press households cutting down and spending as they're struggling with costly fuel bills and also saving for Christmas. Two monthly snapshots of retail activity tell a story of plummeting sales and both in online shops and also in retail shops.

UK: Shoppers cut spending to save for Christmas

Canada has increased its efforts to fortify its banking sector on Thursday, by offering loan guarantees to mitigate the impending impact of the global financial crisis, which is anticipated to push the country to the brink of recession. This measure aligns with similar multibillion-dollar programs adopted in the United States and Europe, aiming to restore confidence in lending markets after numerous bank failures, primarily linked to investments in distressed U.S. mortgages.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty emphasised the government's commitment to preserving the competitiveness of Canadian financial institutions in global wholesale markets. Reuters quoted him as saying in a statement, “The government of Canada is acting today to ensure that financial institutions in this country are not put at a competitive disadvantage when raising funds in wholesale markets to lend to consumers and businesses.”

The global economic turbulence, which has rattled world markets and plummeted consumer confidence to historically low levels, is predicted to bring Canada's economy dangerously close to recession, according to the Bank of Canada. In its quarterly report, the central bank projected a 0.4 per cent contraction in the fourth quarter of this year and zero growth in the first quarter of 2009, meeting the technical criteria for a recession, which entails two consecutive quarters of economic decline.

Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney emphasised that while the economic outlook was sluggish, he refrained from characterising it as recessionary. Finance Minister Flaherty expressed optimism that a recession could still be averted.

To counterbalance the challenges, a substantial depreciation of the Canadian dollar may help offset the decline in commodities markets, benefiting manufacturers. Furthermore, the cumulative reduction of the bank's key interest rate by 225 basis points since December of the previous year is expected to stimulate economic growth in the months to come, noted Carney. Canada's relatively robust housing and banking sectors have positioned the country more favourably compared to other developed economies.

Despite meagre annual growth rates of 0.6 percent for 2008 and 2009, the central bank anticipates a robust recovery in 2010, with a growth rate of 3.4 percent. Carney expressed confidence in this recovery, highlighting that it is milder compared to recoveries following previous crises.

According to Reuters, Finance Minister Flaherty reasserted his commitment to maintaining the country's 11th consecutive budget surplus for the current year. However, he cautioned that this might not be sustainable in the following years and did not rule out the possibility of providing additional economic stimulus, in addition to the previously announced tax cuts.

Global leaders are set to convene in Washington next month to address the deepening worldwide economic gloom, with European leaders calling for a comprehensive overhaul of global financial system regulations. The finance ministers of G20 nations will meet in Brazil before the Washington gathering, with Carney emphasising the need to establish a process for reforming the global financial system.

Canada's program to bolster bank lending will be initiated in early November and is expected to continue for at least six months, as disclosed by Flaherty. The hope is that the country's banks will not need to utilize the program. Reuters quoted Flaherty as saying, "There may be no take-up on this, and... the excellent result would be that it's not necessary, that the banks don't take it up." He clarified that the program would be offered on a commercial fee basis and was unlikely to entail fiscal costs.

The Canadian Bankers Association welcomed these new measures, highlighting that Canadian banks are financially sound and well-capitalised even without federal government loan insurance. Nancy Hughes Anthony, the President and CEO of the Canadian Bankers Association, affirmed the strength of Canada's banking institutions.

In addition to these actions, the Canadian government had recently announced a plan to purchase up to Canadian $25 billion in mortgage assets from Canadian banks to boost liquidity and stimulate lending to consumers and businesses. The government had already acquired C$5 billion in mortgages in the program's initial phase on October 16, with a second auction of C$7 billion held more recently.

While there have been signs of improvement in global and Canadian money markets over the past two weeks, Carney cautioned against premature relaxation, stating that it was not yet time to withdraw the extraordinary liquidity injections that the central bank had initiated.

(With inputs from Reuters)

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Canada has increased its efforts to fortify its banking sector on Thursday, by offering loan guarantees to mitigate the impending impact of the global financial crisis, which is anticipated to push the country to the brink of recession.

Canada has increased its efforts to fortify its banking sector on Thursday, by offering loan guarantees to mitigate the impending impact of the global financial crisis, which is anticipated to push the country to the brink of recession. This measure aligns with similar multibillion-dollar programs adopted in the United States and Europe, aiming to restore confidence in lending markets after numerous bank failures, primarily linked to investments in distressed U.S. mortgages. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty emphasised the government's commitment to preserving the competitiveness of Canadian financial institutions in global wholesale markets. Reuters quoted him as saying in a statement, “The government of Canada is acting today to ensure that financial institutions in this country are not put at a competitive disadvantage when raising funds in wholesale markets to lend to consumers and businesses.” The global economic turbulence, which has rattled world markets and plummeted consumer confidence to historically low levels, is predicted to bring Canada's economy dangerously close to recession, according to the Bank of Canada. In its quarterly report, the central bank projected a 0.4 per cent contraction in the fourth quarter of this year and zero growth in the first quarter of 2009, meeting the technical criteria for a recession, which entails two consecutive quarters of economic decline. Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney emphasised that while the economic outlook was sluggish, he refrained from characterising it as recessionary. Finance Minister Flaherty expressed optimism that a recession could still be averted. To counterbalance the challenges, a substantial depreciation of the Canadian dollar may help offset the decline in commodities markets, benefiting manufacturers. Furthermore, the cumulative reduction of the bank's key interest rate by 225 basis points since December of the previous year is expected to stimulate economic growth in the months to come, noted Carney. Canada's relatively robust housing and banking sectors have positioned the country more favourably compared to other developed economies. Despite meagre annual growth rates of 0.6 percent for 2008 and 2009, the central bank anticipates a robust recovery in 2010, with a growth rate of 3.4 percent. Carney expressed confidence in this recovery, highlighting that it is milder compared to recoveries following previous crises. According to Reuters, Finance Minister Flaherty reasserted his commitment to maintaining the country's 11th consecutive budget surplus for the current year. However, he cautioned that this might not be sustainable in the following years and did not rule out the possibility of providing additional economic stimulus, in addition to the previously announced tax cuts. Global leaders are set to convene in Washington next month to address the deepening worldwide economic gloom, with European leaders calling for a comprehensive overhaul of global financial system regulations. The finance ministers of G20 nations will meet in Brazil before the Washington gathering, with Carney emphasising the need to establish a process for reforming the global financial system. Canada's program to bolster bank lending will be initiated in early November and is expected to continue for at least six months, as disclosed by Flaherty. The hope is that the country's banks will not need to utilize the program. Reuters quoted Flaherty as saying, "There may be no take-up on this, and... the excellent result would be that it's not necessary, that the banks don't take it up." He clarified that the program would be offered on a commercial fee basis and was unlikely to entail fiscal costs. The Canadian Bankers Association welcomed these new measures, highlighting that Canadian banks are financially sound and well-capitalised even without federal government loan insurance. Nancy Hughes Anthony, the President and CEO of the Canadian Bankers Association, affirmed the strength of Canada's banking institutions. In addition to these actions, the Canadian government had recently announced a plan to purchase up to Canadian $25 billion in mortgage assets from Canadian banks to boost liquidity and stimulate lending to consumers and businesses. The government had already acquired C$5 billion in mortgages in the program's initial phase on October 16, with a second auction of C$7 billion held more recently. While there have been signs of improvement in global and Canadian money markets over the past two weeks, Carney cautioned against premature relaxation, stating that it was not yet time to withdraw the extraordinary liquidity injections that the central bank had initiated. (With inputs from Reuters) WATCH WION LIVE HERE

Canada takes action to prevent recession amid global financial crisis

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has expressed optimism about the possibility of the United States avoiding a recession, even as the central bank continues to raise interest rates in an effort to combat inflation.

In a recent interview with CNBC, Goolsbee referred to this optimistic scenario as the "golden path," although he acknowledged that it comes with its share of risks and uncertainties.

"I've been calling that the golden path, and I think it's possible, but there are a lot of risks and the path is long and winding," Bloomberg quoted Goolsbee as saying, emphasising the complexities of the current economic landscape.

Goolsbee drew attention to the unemployment rate, which was at &nbsp;3.8 per cent last month and remained remarkably close to its level from the previous year when inflation was significantly higher than it is presently. This comparison underscores the Federal Reserve's challenge of achieving both full employment and price stability.

According to a report by Bloomberg, the Federal Reserve officials recently decided to maintain their benchmark lending rate at a 22-year high, with the expectation of one more rate hike for the present fiscal year. Additionally, policymakers signalled a more positive outlook for a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy but acknowledged that interest rates are likely to remain elevated for an extended period.

The report cited Chair Jerome Powell reassured that policymakers would approach the end of the rate-hiking cycle with caution while maintaining their commitment to bringing inflation back to the 2 per cent target. In July, the preferred inflation gauge for Fed officials saw a 0.2 per cent increase for the second consecutive month, marking the smallest consecutive gains since late 2020.

Goolsbee, who had previously noted progress in monthly core inflation data, reiterated that the time is rapidly approaching for discussions to shift from how high to raise rates to how long they should be held at elevated levels. The Federal Reserve will be closely monitoring fresh inflation data for August, set to be released on Friday, to inform their ongoing policy decisions.

(With inputs from Bloomberg)

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<iframe allow="accelerometer; autoplay; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen="" frameborder="0" height="350" src="https://www.wionews.com/live-tv/embed?autoplay=1&amp;mute=1" width="100%"></iframe>

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has expressed optimism about the possibility of the United States avoiding a recession, even as the central bank continues to raise interest rates in an effort to combat inflation.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, has expressed optimism about the possibility of the United States avoiding a recession, even as the central bank continues to raise interest rates in an effort to combat inflation. In a recent interview with CNBC, Goolsbee referred to this optimistic scenario as the "golden path," although he acknowledged that it comes with its share of risks and uncertainties. "I've been calling that the golden path, and I think it's possible, but there are a lot of risks and the path is long and winding," Bloomberg quoted Goolsbee as saying, emphasising the complexities of the current economic landscape. Goolsbee drew attention to the unemployment rate, which was at 3.8 per cent last month and remained remarkably close to its level from the previous year when inflation was significantly higher than it is presently. This comparison underscores the Federal Reserve's challenge of achieving both full employment and price stability. According to a report by Bloomberg, the Federal Reserve officials recently decided to maintain their benchmark lending rate at a 22-year high, with the expectation of one more rate hike for the present fiscal year. Additionally, policymakers signalled a more positive outlook for a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy but acknowledged that interest rates are likely to remain elevated for an extended period. The report cited Chair Jerome Powell reassured that policymakers would approach the end of the rate-hiking cycle with caution while maintaining their commitment to bringing inflation back to the 2 per cent target. In July, the preferred inflation gauge for Fed officials saw a 0.2 per cent increase for the second consecutive month, marking the smallest consecutive gains since late 2020. Goolsbee, who had previously noted progress in monthly core inflation data, reiterated that the time is rapidly approaching for discussions to shift from how high to raise rates to how long they should be held at elevated levels. The Federal Reserve will be closely monitoring fresh inflation data for August, set to be released on Friday, to inform their ongoing policy decisions. (With inputs from Bloomberg) WATCH WION LIVE HERE

Federal Reserve official highlights "golden path" to avert recession amidst rate hikes

Despite mounting evidence that the US economy may escape a recession — strategists generally foresee a market slump in 2024. The pessimism on Wall Street presents a predicament for investors with capital at risk. Despite the Fed's best efforts, inflation remains an economic concern.

Challenges and opportunities for investors in 2023

The Dutch economy has fallen into recession. The economy declined by 0.3% in the second quarter. This came after the economy shrank 0.4% in the first three months of the year.

Why did the Netherlands fall into recession after a strong COVID rebound?

Whenever a recession hits the world economy, women have found themselves at the centre of a distinct struggle, facing various obstacles unique to their gender. As economic pressures intensified, wage disparities widened, and access to opportunities dwindled. 
&nbsp; 
A recession is an economic downturn with reduced economic activity, lower GDP, higher unemployment, and less spending and investment. Various factors can cause it and have adverse effects on businesses, jobs, and overall economic growth.

The ongoing global economic downturn is having a notable impact on women. According to research conducted by the International Labour Organisation, women on an average earn 20 per cent less than men, although this figure varies considerably across different countries.

Moreover, a recent Bankrate survey revealed that 74 per cent of women are more concerned about the potential economic downturn as compared to 65 per cent&nbsp;of men. This is due to the disparities between the two genders in preparing for an economic downturn.&nbsp;

Despite some progress in recent years, it is common knowledge that women still confront greater financial vulnerability than men. Persistent gender pay gap, particularly for women of colour and mothers, adversely affects their capacity to accumulate wealth. This inequality also poses a challenge to their ability to manage debt, ranging from credit card balances to student loans.

"Recession affects labour markets. Lack of skilling and mobility constraints can delay the process of women reentering the labour markets once they lose jobs due to recession," said NIPFP professor and economist Lekha S. Chakraborty.

Recessions' Dual Consequences for Women

In times of economic downturn, men and women encounter distinct economic difficulties due to a range of factors.

"Men and women are at asymmetric levels of socio-economic development. The key factors that can widen the disparity are the differentials in access and utilisation of education, health, and wage and workforce participation," said Lekha.

In times of uncertainty, women tend to have more caregiving responsibilities, which can hinder their ability to work full-time. Moreover, the existing gender pay gap exacerbates the situation since women are already paid less than men even before a recession hits.&nbsp;

Consequently, economic downturns can have a disproportionate impact on women, leading to what is known as a "shecession" -- economic recession&nbsp;that impacts women more than men.

Care Economy Gap: Fueling Gender Disparities

"Lack of care economy infrastructure is a significant factor that led to gender differentials," stated Lekha Chakraborty.

Care economy includes those activities that address the physical, psychological, and emotional needs of adults, children, the elderly, the young, the frail, and the physically fit.

The lack of a care economy has resulted in insufficient support systems for childcare, eldercare, and domestic responsibilities, which disproportionately affect women's economic situation. 
&nbsp; 
As a consequence, this sustains the cycle of gender inequality, hindering their professional growth and financial independence. It is imperative to address the care economy gap to create a more equitable society that allows both men and women to fully participate in the workforce while fulfilling important caregiving responsibilities.

Crisis Ripple Effect: Women's Excess Burden in Recessions

The impact of a crisis is extensive, and women often shoulder a disproportionate amount of added responsibilities during times of economic hardship. The effects of these difficulties can have long-lasting consequences on the lives of women.

Lekha said that recession affects the government's fiscal space, which has a major consequence on the well-being of women.&nbsp;

"If the government reduces health budgets during a recession, the care economy burden of women will increase as the decreased days of hospitalisation is compensated by the care providers at home. The dual work burden of women increases in recession as there are fewer options for market-based services in the care sector during recessions," she said.&nbsp;

"The violence against women increases during recessions, and the role of the state machinery to support women from violence is significant," she added.&nbsp;

Whenever a recession hits the world economy, women have found themselves at the centre of a distinct struggle, facing various obstacles unique to their gender. As economic pressures intensified, wage disparities widened, and access to opportunities dwindled.

Whenever a recession hits the world economy, women have found themselves at the centre of a distinct struggle, facing various obstacles unique to their gender. As economic pressures intensified, wage disparities widened, and access to opportunities dwindled. A recession is an economic downturn with reduced economic activity, lower GDP, higher unemployment, and less spending and investment. Various factors can cause it and have adverse effects on businesses, jobs, and overall economic growth. The ongoing global economic downturn is having a notable impact on women. According to research conducted by the International Labour Organisation, women on an average earn 20 per cent less than men, although this figure varies considerably across different countries. Moreover, a recent Bankrate survey revealed that 74 per cent of women are more concerned about the potential economic downturn as compared to 65 per cent of men. This is due to the disparities between the two genders in preparing for an economic downturn. Despite some progress in recent years, it is common knowledge that women still confront greater financial vulnerability than men. Persistent gender pay gap, particularly for women of colour and mothers, adversely affects their capacity to accumulate wealth. This inequality also poses a challenge to their ability to manage debt, ranging from credit card balances to student loans. "Recession affects labour markets. Lack of skilling and mobility constraints can delay the process of women reentering the labour markets once they lose jobs due to recession," said NIPFP professor and economist Lekha S. Chakraborty. Recessions' Dual Consequences for Women In times of economic downturn, men and women encounter distinct economic difficulties due to a range of factors. "Men and women are at asymmetric levels of socio-economic development. The key factors that can widen the disparity are the differentials in access and utilisation of education, health, and wage and workforce participation," said Lekha. In times of uncertainty, women tend to have more caregiving responsibilities, which can hinder their ability to work full-time. Moreover, the existing gender pay gap exacerbates the situation since women are already paid less than men even before a recession hits. Consequently, economic downturns can have a disproportionate impact on women, leading to what is known as a "shecession" -- economic recession that impacts women more than men. Care Economy Gap: Fueling Gender Disparities "Lack of care economy infrastructure is a significant factor that led to gender differentials," stated Lekha Chakraborty. Care economy includes those activities that address the physical, psychological, and emotional needs of adults, children, the elderly, the young, the frail, and the physically fit. The lack of a care economy has resulted in insufficient support systems for childcare, eldercare, and domestic responsibilities, which disproportionately affect women's economic situation. As a consequence, this sustains the cycle of gender inequality, hindering their professional growth and financial independence. It is imperative to address the care economy gap to create a more equitable society that allows both men and women to fully participate in the workforce while fulfilling important caregiving responsibilities. Crisis Ripple Effect: Women's Excess Burden in Recessions The impact of a crisis is extensive, and women often shoulder a disproportionate amount of added responsibilities during times of economic hardship. The effects of these difficulties can have long-lasting consequences on the lives of women. Lekha said that recession affects the government's fiscal space, which has a major consequence on the well-being of women. "If the government reduces health budgets during a recession, the care economy burden of women will increase as the decreased days of hospitalisation is compensated by the care providers at home. The dual work burden of women increases in recession as there are fewer options for market-based services in the care sector during recessions," she said. "The violence against women increases during recessions, and the role of the state machinery to support women from violence is significant," she added.

'Shecession': How women are more impacted by economic downturns

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