Former President Donald Trump held a campaign-style rally in Pennsylvania claiming that consumer prices are “coming down tremendously” and pledging to make America affordable again. While fuel and some food prices have eased, many Americans continue to struggle with housing, healthcare, and childcare costs. This video breaks down Trump’s economic messaging, voter reactions, inflation data, and the challenges facing Americans as the 2026 midterms approach.

Trump Mocks 'Affordability' During Affordability Tour

The Indian Rupee has fallen to fresh record lows repeatedly in recent months. And, if the rupee continues to depreciate against the US Dollar, India may take longer to become the world's third-largest economy. The reason: the global economic size measure is listed in dollars, and a weaker Rupee would mean the exchange rate would offset the growth in India's output.


India's growth shadowed by weak currency

With the holiday shopping season about to peak. A new study finds that american households may have less buying power than many retailers hoped for. According to fresh data from the jpmorgan chase institute. Inflation has pushed real income growth back to levels last seen in the slow recovery after the great recession.


Inflation drags US income growth down

U.S. consumers are pulling back as tariffs and rising prices hit holiday budgets. New data shows slower holiday spending, increased caution on big-ticket items, and growing pressure on retailers. With higher import costs feeding into prices, economists warn that continued tariffs could further weaken consumer demand heading into next quarter. Here’s what the slowdown means for inflation, growth, and the 2025 economy.

U.S. Consumer Pullback: Tariffs Impact Prices

South Africa has slashed its inflation target to 3% for the first time in 25 years, marking a major shift in economic policy. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana says the move will gradually lower inflation expectations and create space for future rate cuts. The Treasury and central bank will phase in the new band over two years, balancing reform with fiscal discipline. Markets reacted instantly, with the rand and long-dated bonds rallying after the announcement.

South Africa Cuts Inflation Target for First Time in 25 Years

The US economy appears strong on the surface, with low unemployment and stable inflation expectations. But beneath the surface, a growing wealth divide is reshaping consumer spending. Let’s break down the numbers and what they mean for the broader economy.

Top Earners Drive US Growth As Wealth Gap Grows

The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep key interest rates steady, signaling a cautious approach amid signs of stabilizing growth. Meanwhile, Eurozone inflation rose 2.2% year-on-year in September, slightly above expectations.

ECB Holds Rates Steady as Eurozone Inflation Hits 2.2%

President Donald Trump announced plans to cut 'a lot of' government jobs as the shutdown settles in its second week. He said the democrats handed him this opportunity on a silver platter.

US Government Shutdown: Uncertainty Mounts As Trump Warns Of Federal Job Cuts

The U.S. government shut down much of its operations on October 1 after Republicans and Democrats failed to reach an agreement to extend funding past the end of the federal fiscal year on September 30.
The closure has shut off the flow of key economic data at a moment of uncertainty among policymakers and investors about the health of the U.S. job market, the trajectory of inflation and the strength of consumer spending and business investment.

US Government Shutdown: Weaker Job Outlook Trumps Inflation Worries

India’s consumer inflation rose in August for the first time in 10 months. It was mostly driven by food prices. The consumer price index rose 2.07% year-on-year, and up from July’s 1.6%.


India's inflation ticks higher for first time in 10 months 

In the United States, the economy is flashing mixed signals. Inflation picked up in August at the fastest pace this year, while unemployment claims spiked to the highest in nearly four years. Together, these trends are fueling fresh worries about stagflation, rising prices paired with slowing job growth.



Annual US Inflation at 2.9%, Highest Since January | WION

This holiday season,
U.S. Retailers and the tourism industry are bracing for a slowdown.
Shoppers are pulling back as inflation, tariffs, and economic uncertainty weigh on spending.
This next report examines the key trends shaping the U.S. economy.
Take a look...

US Holiday Sales Growth Loses Festive Spark 

Argentina: Argentina is grappling with rising inflation as prices continue to outpace wages and pensions. Analysts predict that August’s consumer price index could rebound above two percent. Potentially breaking a three-month streak of declining inflation.

Argentina: Households Struggle as Inflation Outpaces Wage

Home prices across the united states are showing signs of a notable slowdown, with recent data indicating the weakest annual growth in over a year. In the 20 largest metro areas, prices rose 2.1% in the 12 months through June 2025.



Housing Market Cools in US Cities | WION

Inflation is heating up American businesses. With wholesale prices surging at the fastest pace in three years. The latest data by Bureau of Labor statistics and lSEG shows costs for both goods and services are soaring, raising concerns about what this means for the consumers already grappling with higher prices.


US Businesses May Pass Rising Costs to Consumers in Coming Months

As the situation in Gaza worsens amid the Israel-Hamas war, be it cash, food, fuel, or medicine, everything is in short supply. People in Gaza have been selling their possessions to buy essential goods to feed their families and for basic survival needs.At least 798 people have been killed while trying to receive food aid in Gaza since the end of May, according to the United Nations Human Rights Office, Reuters reported.Almost every bank branch as well as ATMs are inoperable in Gaza, hence, people have become dependent on an unrestrained network of powerful cash brokers to get money for daily expenses. While, to add on to their expenses, the commissions on those transactions have soared to about 40 per cent.Ayman al-Dahdouh, a school director living in Gaza, said, "The people are crying blood because of this." "It's suffocating us, starving us."The people in Gaza have been using the Israeli currency, the shekel, for most of their transactions. However, as Israel is no longer supplying the territory with newly printed bank notes, merchants have been accepting frayed bills.Israel halted supplying cash to enter Gaza at the beginning of the war, citing that it wanted to hinder Hamas' ability to purchase weapons and pay its fighters.Mohammed Basheer al-Farra, who lives in southern Gaza shared his ordeal, saying that they have been losing nearly half of their money just to be able to spend it.“If I need $60, I need to transfer $100. This is the only way we can buy essentials, like flour and sugar. We lose nearly half of our money just to be able to spend it.”Last year, inflation in Gaza skyrocketed to 230%, according to the World Bank. Later in January, it dropped a bit during the fragile ceasefire, but again shot up after Israel backed out of the truce in March.According to a World Bank report, about 80 per cent of people in Gaza were unemployed at the end of 2024. However, the figure has probably increased by now.Sugar, which was earlier worth $2 per kilogram, is now very expensive, costing the equivalent of $80-$100 per kilogram, according to several people.Recently, as Israel and Hamas are again in the ceasefire talks loop, initiated by the US, the Hamas terror group has criticised the US's decision to impose sanctions on Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur for the West Bank and Gaza. They called the move a “blatant expression of the US administration’s blatant bias toward Zionist war crimes” and called for the country’s administration to reverse its actions.

At least 798 people have been killed while trying to receive food aid in Gaza since the end of May, according to the United Nations Human Rights Office, Reuters reported.

As the situation in Gaza worsens amid the Israel-Hamas war, be it cash, food, fuel, or medicine, everything is in short supply. People in Gaza have been selling their possessions to buy essential goods to feed their families and for basic survival needs. At least 798 people have been killed while trying to receive food aid in Gaza since the end of May, according to the United Nations Human Rights Office, Reuters reported. Almost every bank branch as well as ATMs are inoperable in Gaza, hence, people have become dependent on an unrestrained network of powerful cash brokers to get money for daily expenses. While, to add on to their expenses, the commissions on those transactions have soared to about 40 per cent. Ayman al-Dahdouh, a school director living in Gaza, said, "The people are crying blood because of this." "It's suffocating us, starving us." The people in Gaza have been using the Israeli currency, the shekel, for most of their transactions. However, as Israel is no longer supplying the territory with newly printed bank notes, merchants have been accepting frayed bills. Israel halted supplying cash to enter Gaza at the beginning of the war, citing that it wanted to hinder Hamas' ability to purchase weapons and pay its fighters. Mohammed Basheer al-Farra, who lives in southern Gaza shared his ordeal, saying that they have been losing nearly half of their money just to be able to spend it. “If I need $60, I need to transfer $100. This is the only way we can buy essentials, like flour and sugar. We lose nearly half of our money just to be able to spend it.” Last year, inflation in Gaza skyrocketed to 230%, according to the World Bank. Later in January, it dropped a bit during the fragile ceasefire, but again shot up after Israel backed out of the truce in March. According to a World Bank report, about 80 per cent of people in Gaza were unemployed at the end of 2024. However, the figure has probably increased by now. Sugar, which was earlier worth $2 per kilogram, is now very expensive, costing the equivalent of $80-$100 per kilogram, according to several people. Recently, as Israel and Hamas are again in the ceasefire talks loop, initiated by the US, the Hamas terror group has criticised the US's decision to impose sanctions on Francesca Albanese, the UN special rapporteur for the West Bank and Gaza. They called the move a “blatant expression of the US administration’s blatant bias toward Zionist war crimes” and called for the country’s administration to reverse its actions.

At least 798 people have been killed while trying to receive food aid in Gaza since the end of May, according to the United Nations Human Rights Office, Reuters reported.

'Gazans crying blood, it's suffocating': War-torn Gaza paying high price as inflation hits 230% amid Israel-Hamas war

The recent attacks on Iran’s oil facilities—a direct fallout of the growing conflict between Israel and Iran—have sparked major concerns across global energy markets.&nbsp;While experts are still assessing the full extent of the damage to Iran’s oil production sites, the effects are already being felt. There’s increasing fear that the tension could disrupt oil supply, push up fuel prices, and lead to higher inflation—not just in wealthy nations but also in developing economies.<h2>Global ripple effects</h2>Iran holds nearly 9% of the world’s proven oil reserves and exports around 1.5 to 2 million barrels of oil daily, mostly to China. Even though Iran’s oil trade isn’t as closely tied to global markets as Saudi Arabia or the UAE, any disruption—especially at the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world’s oil—can shake up the entire global energy system.&nbsp;Right after the attacks, Brent crude oil prices jumped by over 6%, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices rose by more than 5%. This wasn’t just a reaction to supply concerns—investors are now pricing in the risk of a larger regional conflict, which adds what’s known as a “geopolitical risk premium” to oil prices.<h2>More price hikes ahead?</h2>If the fighting continues, global oil prices could climb even higher. Experts also expect that countries like Australia could see rising fuel prices in the coming weeks, as local petrol rates usually follow international prices with a short delay.<h2>A bigger strategy at play</h2>There’s growing concern that Israel may continue targeting Iranian oil infrastructure to weaken Iran’s economy and stop its support for proxy groups. If these attacks continue, they could severely affect the worldwide supply of oil.&nbsp;Things could get worse if Iran hits back by blocking key shipping lanes or causing trouble in neighboring oil-producing countries—a move that would slow down global oil deliveries even more.<h2>Asia at risk</h2>Countries that rely heavily on imported oil—especially in Asia—are most vulnerable. India, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Bangladesh get much of their oil from the Middle East and have limited emergency reserves, making them especially sensitive to rising prices or supply issues.&nbsp;Even China, despite being Iran’s largest oil buyer, could feel the heat. Though it has diverse suppliers and big reserves, a prolonged crisis in the Persian Gulf could raise freight and insurance costs for Chinese oil imports—especially if the Strait of Hormuz becomes unsafe.&nbsp;This narrow waterway, linking the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is the only sea route for oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf. If it becomes a war zone, oil shipments worldwide could be delayed or blocked.<h2>Trouble for global trade</h2>If the conflict spreads, Iran or its allies could attack ships in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, or Strait of Hormuz. This would raise shipping insurance costs, cause longer delivery times, and put more pressure on global supply chains. These issues could bring back inflation in many countries, making basic goods and services more expensive.<h2>How this impacts India</h2>India is especially exposed. Over 80% of its crude oil is imported, and much of it comes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption there can immediately cause fuel prices to spike, hurt the trade balance, and push up inflation.<h2>Rupee reacts to oil shock</h2>Following the attack, on Friday, June 13, the rupee opened at 86.14 per US dollar, falling by 54 paise from the previous day’s close of 85.60. This drop happened because rising oil prices increased the demand for US dollars—which oil importers need to pay for shipments.&nbsp;As the rupee weakens, oil becomes even more expensive, creating a cycle of rising costs. This puts added strain on India’s current account deficit, meaning the country is spending more on imports than it earns from exports.<h2>Experts warn of worse to come</h2>As reported by the Economic Times, JP Morgan has warned that if the conflict worsens, oil could jump to $120 per barrel. While the chances of this happening are currently around 7%, the bank says the price surge could be sudden and severe, driven by panic and a possible spillover into neighboring regions.<h2>LPG, gas, and fertilisers at risk</h2>India’s energy imports are not limited to crude oil. The country also brings in LPG, natural gas, petrochemicals, and fertilisers. If tensions in the Middle East escalate, these supplies could also face disruptions and price hikes.&nbsp;This is especially worrying for rural India. A shortage of LPG or a rise in fertiliser costs could hit households and farmers hard. Since fertilisers are vital for agriculture, any price rise would increase food production costs, which could then raise food prices and undo recent gains in controlling inflation.<h2>Indian industries to feel the pinch</h2>Several key Indian industries—such as aviation, chemicals, paints, tyres, cement, and logistics—rely on petroleum-based fuels and raw materials. If the prices of essentials like jet fuel, diesel, or naphtha go up sharply, companies will face higher production costs and see a drop in profits.<h3>In short</h3>What’s happening between Israel and Iran isn’t just a political crisis—it’s an economic shock that could touch every part of the Indian economy, from the fuel pump to the farmland, and from global trade routes to the local grocery store.

Oil shockwaves: How the Israel-Iran conflict could hit India hard

The recent attacks on Iran’s oil facilities—a direct fallout of the growing conflict between Israel and Iran—have sparked major concerns across global energy markets. While experts are still assessing the full extent of the damage to Iran’s oil production sites, the effects are already being felt. There’s increasing fear that the tension could disrupt oil supply, push up fuel prices, and lead to higher inflation—not just in wealthy nations but also in developing economies. Global ripple effects Iran holds nearly 9% of the world’s proven oil reserves and exports around 1.5 to 2 million barrels of oil daily, mostly to China. Even though Iran’s oil trade isn’t as closely tied to global markets as Saudi Arabia or the UAE, any disruption—especially at the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of the world’s oil—can shake up the entire global energy system. Right after the attacks, Brent crude oil prices jumped by over 6%, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices rose by more than 5%. This wasn’t just a reaction to supply concerns—investors are now pricing in the risk of a larger regional conflict, which adds what’s known as a “geopolitical risk premium” to oil prices. More price hikes ahead? If the fighting continues, global oil prices could climb even higher. Experts also expect that countries like Australia could see rising fuel prices in the coming weeks, as local petrol rates usually follow international prices with a short delay. A bigger strategy at play There’s growing concern that Israel may continue targeting Iranian oil infrastructure to weaken Iran’s economy and stop its support for proxy groups. If these attacks continue, they could severely affect the worldwide supply of oil. Things could get worse if Iran hits back by blocking key shipping lanes or causing trouble in neighboring oil-producing countries—a move that would slow down global oil deliveries even more. Asia at risk Countries that rely heavily on imported oil—especially in Asia—are most vulnerable. India, Pakistan, Indonesia, and Bangladesh get much of their oil from the Middle East and have limited emergency reserves, making them especially sensitive to rising prices or supply issues. Even China, despite being Iran’s largest oil buyer, could feel the heat. Though it has diverse suppliers and big reserves, a prolonged crisis in the Persian Gulf could raise freight and insurance costs for Chinese oil imports—especially if the Strait of Hormuz becomes unsafe. This narrow waterway, linking the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, is the only sea route for oil tankers leaving the Persian Gulf. If it becomes a war zone, oil shipments worldwide could be delayed or blocked. Trouble for global trade If the conflict spreads, Iran or its allies could attack ships in the Red Sea, Arabian Sea, or Strait of Hormuz. This would raise shipping insurance costs, cause longer delivery times, and put more pressure on global supply chains. These issues could bring back inflation in many countries, making basic goods and services more expensive. How this impacts India India is especially exposed. Over 80% of its crude oil is imported, and much of it comes through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption there can immediately cause fuel prices to spike, hurt the trade balance, and push up inflation. Rupee reacts to oil shock Following the attack, on Friday, June 13, the rupee opened at 86.14 per US dollar, falling by 54 paise from the previous day’s close of 85.60. This drop happened because rising oil prices increased the demand for US dollars—which oil importers need to pay for shipments. As the rupee weakens, oil becomes even more expensive, creating a cycle of rising costs. This puts added strain on India’s current account deficit, meaning the country is spending more on imports than it earns from exports. Experts warn of worse to come As reported by the Economic Times, JP Morgan has warned that if the conflict worsens, oil could jump to $120 per barrel. While the chances of this happening are currently around 7%, the bank says the price surge could be sudden and severe, driven by panic and a possible spillover into neighboring regions. LPG, gas, and fertilisers at risk India’s energy imports are not limited to crude oil. The country also brings in LPG, natural gas, petrochemicals, and fertilisers. If tensions in the Middle East escalate, these supplies could also face disruptions and price hikes. This is especially worrying for rural India. A shortage of LPG or a rise in fertiliser costs could hit households and farmers hard. Since fertilisers are vital for agriculture, any price rise would increase food production costs, which could then raise food prices and undo recent gains in controlling inflation. Indian industries to feel the pinch Several key Indian industries—such as aviation, chemicals, paints, tyres, cement, and logistics—rely on petroleum-based fuels and raw materials. If the prices of essentials like jet fuel, diesel, or naphtha go up sharply, companies will face higher production costs and see a drop in profits. In short What’s happening between Israel and Iran isn’t just a political crisis—it’s an economic shock that could touch every part of the Indian economy, from the fuel pump to the farmland, and from global trade routes to the local grocery store.

There’s increasing fear that the tension could disrupt oil supply, push up fuel prices, and lead to higher inflation—not just in wealthy nations but also in developing economies.

India’s wholesale inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), dropped to a 14-month low of 0.39 per cent in May 2025, down from 0.85 per cent in April, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on June 16.&nbsp;This marks the third consecutive month of declining wholesale inflation, primarily driven by slowing demand and moderating food prices, with prices of key kitchen staples such as vegetables, pulses, and potatoes falling sharply.<h2>Food prices lead the decline</h2>The significant deceleration in food inflation was the major factor contributing to the decline in overall WPI. Food inflation fell to 1.72 per cent in May, down from 2.55 per cent in April. This was largely due to a sharp decline in vegetable prices, which contracted by 21.62 per cent compared to 18.26 per cent in the previous month.&nbsp;Other food items such as onions and potatoes also saw considerable price reductions, with onion inflation easing to 14.41 per cent in May from 0.20 per cent in April and potato inflation plunging by 29.42 per cent. This is indicative of easing demand pressures, rather than supply shortages or disruptions.Notably, protein-rich food items like eggs, meat, and fish saw a price decline of 1.01 per cent, marking the second consecutive month of deflation in this category. However, the prices of fruits (up 10.17 per cent) and milk (up 2.66 per cent) continued to rise, pointing to mixed trends within the broader food category.<h2>Fuel and power prices continue to fall</h2>The fuel and power segment, which has a significant impact on inflation, also saw a continued fall in prices. Fuel and power inflation contracted by 2.27 per cent in May, slightly worse than the 2.18 per cent drop in April.&nbsp;The decline was largely driven by lower mineral oil prices, with petrol prices falling by 8.5 per cent and high-speed diesel prices by 5.61 per cent. However, the price of cooking gas rose by 0.25 per cent, reflecting volatility in global energy markets.<h2>Manufactured products show slower price growth</h2>Inflation in manufactured products, which makes up the largest portion of the WPI basket, slowed to 2.04 per cent in May from 2.62 per cent in April. The deceleration in this category is further evidence of softening demand across the economy.&nbsp;Key categories such as food products, basic metals, rubber and plastics, and chemical products saw price reductions, while certain sectors, including pharmaceuticals, electronics, and textiles, recorded price increases.<h2>Declining inflation reflects weak demand</h2>The overall trend of falling wholesale inflation can be attributed to weakening demand across key sectors, rather than any major supply disruptions or shortages. This is evident from the broader cooling seen in both food and non-food items.&nbsp;While inflation in primary articles declined by 2.02 per cent year-on-year, the deceleration in prices was not driven by any major disruptions in supply chains but rather by weaker demand pressures.This cooling in wholesale inflation follows the same trend seen in retail inflation, which eased to a 75-month low of 2.82 per cent in May, largely due to the decline in food prices. With inflation remaining subdued, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has room to continue its accommodative monetary policy.&nbsp;In fact, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent, signalling that it expects the low inflation environment to persist.<h2>RBI’s outlook and future expectations</h2>The cooling of both wholesale and retail inflation suggests that the RBI could take further steps to ease monetary policy in the second half of 2025, supporting economic growth while keeping inflation under control.&nbsp;The central bank has already lowered its inflation forecast for FY26 to 3.7 per cent, from an earlier projection of 4 per cent, in light of the ongoing disinflationary trends.Economists also point out that as food inflation continues to ease, the country may see further benefits from a favourable monsoon season and improved agricultural output. However, risks remain in the form of global volatility and unpredictable weather patterns, which could affect inflation trends in the coming months.The latest WPI data underscores a broader trend of falling inflation driven by slowing demand rather than supply-side factors. With food prices and fuel costs continuing their decline, India’s wholesale inflation outlook remains subdued, providing the RBI with the flexibility to maintain its policy stance and support economic recovery in the months ahead.

This is the third consecutive month of declining wholesale inflation, primarily driven by slowing demand and moderating food prices, with prices of key kitchen staples such as vegetables, pulses, and potatoes falling sharply.

India’s wholesale inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), dropped to a 14-month low of 0.39 per cent in May 2025, down from 0.85 per cent in April, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on June 16. This marks the third consecutive month of declining wholesale inflation, primarily driven by slowing demand and moderating food prices, with prices of key kitchen staples such as vegetables, pulses, and potatoes falling sharply. Food prices lead the decline The significant deceleration in food inflation was the major factor contributing to the decline in overall WPI. Food inflation fell to 1.72 per cent in May, down from 2.55 per cent in April. This was largely due to a sharp decline in vegetable prices, which contracted by 21.62 per cent compared to 18.26 per cent in the previous month. Other food items such as onions and potatoes also saw considerable price reductions, with onion inflation easing to 14.41 per cent in May from 0.20 per cent in April and potato inflation plunging by 29.42 per cent. This is indicative of easing demand pressures, rather than supply shortages or disruptions. Notably, protein-rich food items like eggs, meat, and fish saw a price decline of 1.01 per cent, marking the second consecutive month of deflation in this category. However, the prices of fruits (up 10.17 per cent) and milk (up 2.66 per cent) continued to rise, pointing to mixed trends within the broader food category. Fuel and power prices continue to fall The fuel and power segment, which has a significant impact on inflation, also saw a continued fall in prices. Fuel and power inflation contracted by 2.27 per cent in May, slightly worse than the 2.18 per cent drop in April. The decline was largely driven by lower mineral oil prices, with petrol prices falling by 8.5 per cent and high-speed diesel prices by 5.61 per cent. However, the price of cooking gas rose by 0.25 per cent, reflecting volatility in global energy markets. Manufactured products show slower price growth Inflation in manufactured products, which makes up the largest portion of the WPI basket, slowed to 2.04 per cent in May from 2.62 per cent in April. The deceleration in this category is further evidence of softening demand across the economy. Key categories such as food products, basic metals, rubber and plastics, and chemical products saw price reductions, while certain sectors, including pharmaceuticals, electronics, and textiles, recorded price increases. Declining inflation reflects weak demand The overall trend of falling wholesale inflation can be attributed to weakening demand across key sectors, rather than any major supply disruptions or shortages. This is evident from the broader cooling seen in both food and non-food items. While inflation in primary articles declined by 2.02 per cent year-on-year, the deceleration in prices was not driven by any major disruptions in supply chains but rather by weaker demand pressures. This cooling in wholesale inflation follows the same trend seen in retail inflation, which eased to a 75-month low of 2.82 per cent in May, largely due to the decline in food prices. With inflation remaining subdued, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has room to continue its accommodative monetary policy. In fact, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) recently cut the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 per cent, signalling that it expects the low inflation environment to persist. RBI’s outlook and future expectations The cooling of both wholesale and retail inflation suggests that the RBI could take further steps to ease monetary policy in the second half of 2025, supporting economic growth while keeping inflation under control. The central bank has already lowered its inflation forecast for FY26 to 3.7 per cent, from an earlier projection of 4 per cent, in light of the ongoing disinflationary trends. Economists also point out that as food inflation continues to ease, the country may see further benefits from a favourable monsoon season and improved agricultural output. However, risks remain in the form of global volatility and unpredictable weather patterns, which could affect inflation trends in the coming months. The latest WPI data underscores a broader trend of falling inflation driven by slowing demand rather than supply-side factors. With food prices and fuel costs continuing their decline, India’s wholesale inflation outlook remains subdued, providing the RBI with the flexibility to maintain its policy stance and support economic recovery in the months ahead.

This is the third consecutive month of declining wholesale inflation, primarily driven by slowing demand and moderating food prices, with prices of key kitchen staples such as vegetables, pulses, and potatoes falling sharply.

India’s wholesale inflation eases to 14-month low in May, driven by slowing demand

India’s retail inflation, measured by the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 2.82 per cent in May 2025, down from 3.16 per cent in April, according to provisional data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).&nbsp;This marks the lowest retail inflation print since February 2019, reinforcing expectations of continued price stability in the near term.Food inflation, a key driver of the overall consumer price movement, dropped sharply to 0.99 per cent in May, compared to 1.78 per cent in April. The last time food inflation was this low was in October 2021. The moderation was largely driven by a decline in the prices of vegetables, pulses, cereals, fruits, and sugar products.&nbsp;Headline inflation declined by 34 basis points (bps) month-on-month, and food inflation dropped 79 bps—underscoring the impact of favourable base effects and improved food supply conditions.&nbsp;Notably, the rural headline inflation rate fell to 2.59 per cent in May from 2.92 per cent in April, while urban inflation moderated to 3.07 per cent from 3.36 per cent.Among other categories, housing inflation rose slightly to 3.16 per cent in May from 3.06 per cent in April. Education inflation remained largely stable at 4.12 per cent, and health inflation edged up to 4.34 per cent. Transport and communication inflation increased to 3.85 per cent, while fuel and light inflation softened to 2.78 per cent from 2.92 per cent.Kerala recorded the highest state-level inflation at 6.46, followed by Punjab (5.21 per cent), Jammu &amp; Kashmir (4.55 per cent), Haryana (3.67 per cent), and Uttarakhand (3.47 per cent).<h2>In line with market expectations</h2>The sharp fall in inflation has raised hopes of sustained price stability. Bank of Baroda, in a recent report, projected CPI inflation at 2.7 per cent for May, citing easing food prices and better supply conditions. This aligns with the observed trend and suggests that both consumers and policymakers may benefit from continued low inflationary pressure in the coming months.Analysts are also closely watching monsoon developments. Though the monsoon arrived early, it has weakened since late May. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a revival starting June 13, which is crucial for the Kharif crop sowing season and will have a direct bearing on future food inflation trends.<h2>RBI’s stance on inflation</h2>The Reserve Bank of India slashed the repo rate to 5.5% and shifted its stance from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will take a data-driven approach going forward.The RBI projects CPI inflation for FY26 at 3.7 per cent. Risks remain balanced, with the central bank urging caution due to potential weather-related shocks and global commodity price volatility.In the broader context, softening inflation in the United States and other major economies is adding to global optimism about easing interest rate cycles, though India’s recent shift in stance indicates it will be more cautious going forward and not follow suit blindly.As things stand, India’s inflation trajectory appears stable—a positive sign for households and businesses—even as the RBI remains focused on preserving the delicate balance between growth and price stability.

Food inflation dropped sharply to 0.99 per cent in May, compared to 1.78 per cent in April, lowest since October 2021. The moderation was largely driven by a decline in the prices of vegetables, pulses, cereals, fruits, and sugar products.

India’s retail inflation, measured by the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 2.82 per cent in May 2025, down from 3.16 per cent in April, according to provisional data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). This marks the lowest retail inflation print since February 2019, reinforcing expectations of continued price stability in the near term. Food inflation, a key driver of the overall consumer price movement, dropped sharply to 0.99 per cent in May, compared to 1.78 per cent in April. The last time food inflation was this low was in October 2021. The moderation was largely driven by a decline in the prices of vegetables, pulses, cereals, fruits, and sugar products. Headline inflation declined by 34 basis points (bps) month-on-month, and food inflation dropped 79 bps—underscoring the impact of favourable base effects and improved food supply conditions. Notably, the rural headline inflation rate fell to 2.59 per cent in May from 2.92 per cent in April, while urban inflation moderated to 3.07 per cent from 3.36 per cent. Among other categories, housing inflation rose slightly to 3.16 per cent in May from 3.06 per cent in April. Education inflation remained largely stable at 4.12 per cent, and health inflation edged up to 4.34 per cent. Transport and communication inflation increased to 3.85 per cent, while fuel and light inflation softened to 2.78 per cent from 2.92 per cent. Kerala recorded the highest state-level inflation at 6.46, followed by Punjab (5.21 per cent), Jammu & Kashmir (4.55 per cent), Haryana (3.67 per cent), and Uttarakhand (3.47 per cent). In line with market expectations The sharp fall in inflation has raised hopes of sustained price stability. Bank of Baroda, in a recent report, projected CPI inflation at 2.7 per cent for May, citing easing food prices and better supply conditions. This aligns with the observed trend and suggests that both consumers and policymakers may benefit from continued low inflationary pressure in the coming months. Analysts are also closely watching monsoon developments. Though the monsoon arrived early, it has weakened since late May. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts a revival starting June 13, which is crucial for the Kharif crop sowing season and will have a direct bearing on future food inflation trends. RBI’s stance on inflation The Reserve Bank of India slashed the repo rate to 5.5% and shifted its stance from ‘accommodative’ to ‘neutral’. RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra indicated that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will take a data-driven approach going forward. The RBI projects CPI inflation for FY26 at 3.7 per cent. Risks remain balanced, with the central bank urging caution due to potential weather-related shocks and global commodity price volatility. In the broader context, softening inflation in the United States and other major economies is adding to global optimism about easing interest rate cycles, though India’s recent shift in stance indicates it will be more cautious going forward and not follow suit blindly. As things stand, India’s inflation trajectory appears stable—a positive sign for households and businesses—even as the RBI remains focused on preserving the delicate balance between growth and price stability.

Food inflation dropped sharply to 0.99 per cent in May, compared to 1.78 per cent in April, lowest since October 2021. The moderation was largely driven by a decline in the prices of vegetables, pulses, cereals, fruits, and sugar products.

India’s retail inflation eases to 2.82% in May, lowest in 75 months

Japan’s core inflation in its capital has surged to the highest level in more than two years, fuelling expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).&nbsp;&nbsp;However, the central bank’s path forward remains fraught, as the economy grapples with a slump in factory output and intensifying trade tensions with the United States.&nbsp;According to Reuters, the Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food costs, rose by 3.6 per cent in May from a year earlier, higher than market forecasts of 3.5 per cent and up from 3.4 per cent in April. This is the fastest rate of increase since January 2023, when inflation peaked at 4.3 per cent.&nbsp;A broader inflation gauge that excludes both fresh food and fuel, and is closely tracked by the BOJ, climbed 3.3 per cent in May. It had risen 3.1 per cent the previous month, indicating that price pressures are deepening beyond just food and energy.&nbsp;Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, told Reuters: “The Tokyo CPI showed a further broad-based acceleration in inflation, which suggests that the BOJ may hike even earlier than our current forecast of October.”<h2>Factory slowdown raises red flags</h2>While inflation surges, Japan’s manufacturing sector shows signs of weakening. As reported by Reuters, factory output dropped by 0.9 per cent in April from the previous month. Manufacturers anticipate a 9.0 per cent rebound in May, followed by a projected 3.4 per cent dip in June, suggesting volatility and uncertainty within the sector.&nbsp;The BOJ is now confronted with a delicate balancing act: containing inflation without choking off growth at a time when global demand is waning.<h2>US tariffs create additional economic headwinds</h2>Complicating the picture further is Japan’s deteriorating trade relationship with the United States. President Donald Trump’s administration recently imposed steep tariffs on key Japanese exports, including vehicles, steel components, and electronic goods. Some duties reportedly exceed 24 per cent.&nbsp;Reuters notes that while Japan’s overall exports rose by 2 per cent in April, shipments to the US reportedly dropped by 1.8 per cent year-on-year. This decline signals that Trump’s tariff regime is beginning to take a toll on Japan’s external sector.&nbsp;Adding to the uncertainty, the Japanese government has lowered its global growth outlook and acknowledged that the trade friction with Washington could hinder the country’s post-pandemic recovery. The BOJ itself has already revised down its growth forecasts for the year, citing the impact of these tariffs.<h2>Rising food and service costs keep inflation expectations alive</h2>Food inflation remains a major driver of Japan’s price rise. Reuters reports that non-fresh food prices soared by 6.9 per cent in May, while the cost of rice skyrocketed by 93.2 per cent.&nbsp;Additionally, services inflation, which the BOJ closely monitors, rose to 2.2 per cent from 2.0 per cent in April, suggesting firms are beginning to pass labour costs onto consumers.&nbsp;A survey by Teikoku Databank, cited by Reuters, revealed that Japanese companies plan to increase prices on 1,932 food and beverage items in June, triple the number from a year earlier.&nbsp;BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament on Friday that the central bank remains attentive to wage hikes and corporate pricing strategies, both of which are crucial to sustained inflation.&nbsp;“Japan may face a tricky situation where public attention to rising food prices heightens inflation expectations, which have so far been stable,” said Tsutomu Watanabe, professor at the University of Tokyo’s graduate school of economics, in an interview with Reuters.<h2>A cautious road ahead for the BOJ</h2>The BOJ exited its ultra-loose monetary stance last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5 per cent in January. However, the timing of the next move remains uncertain.&nbsp;&nbsp;While inflation has clearly exceeded the 2 per cent target, the broader economic environment, including shrinking factory output and external shocks from US protectionism, could restrain the bank’s hand.&nbsp;For now, expectations of another rate hike remain on the table, but the path ahead is far from clear. As Japan contends with internal price pressures and external trade risks, the BOJ will need to weigh its next steps with caution and flexibility.

Business & Economy: However, the central bank path forward remains uncertain due to a slump in factory output and intensifying trade tensions with the US. 

Japan’s core inflation in its capital has surged to the highest level in more than two years, fuelling expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ). However, the central bank’s path forward remains fraught, as the economy grapples with a slump in factory output and intensifying trade tensions with the United States. According to Reuters, the Tokyo core consumer price index (CPI), which excludes fresh food costs, rose by 3.6 per cent in May from a year earlier, higher than market forecasts of 3.5 per cent and up from 3.4 per cent in April. This is the fastest rate of increase since January 2023, when inflation peaked at 4.3 per cent. A broader inflation gauge that excludes both fresh food and fuel, and is closely tracked by the BOJ, climbed 3.3 per cent in May. It had risen 3.1 per cent the previous month, indicating that price pressures are deepening beyond just food and energy. Marcel Thieliant, head of Asia-Pacific at Capital Economics, told Reuters: “The Tokyo CPI showed a further broad-based acceleration in inflation, which suggests that the BOJ may hike even earlier than our current forecast of October.” Factory slowdown raises red flags While inflation surges, Japan’s manufacturing sector shows signs of weakening. As reported by Reuters, factory output dropped by 0.9 per cent in April from the previous month. Manufacturers anticipate a 9.0 per cent rebound in May, followed by a projected 3.4 per cent dip in June, suggesting volatility and uncertainty within the sector. The BOJ is now confronted with a delicate balancing act: containing inflation without choking off growth at a time when global demand is waning. US tariffs create additional economic headwinds Complicating the picture further is Japan’s deteriorating trade relationship with the United States. President Donald Trump’s administration recently imposed steep tariffs on key Japanese exports, including vehicles, steel components, and electronic goods. Some duties reportedly exceed 24 per cent. Reuters notes that while Japan’s overall exports rose by 2 per cent in April, shipments to the US reportedly dropped by 1.8 per cent year-on-year. This decline signals that Trump’s tariff regime is beginning to take a toll on Japan’s external sector. Adding to the uncertainty, the Japanese government has lowered its global growth outlook and acknowledged that the trade friction with Washington could hinder the country’s post-pandemic recovery. The BOJ itself has already revised down its growth forecasts for the year, citing the impact of these tariffs. Rising food and service costs keep inflation expectations alive Food inflation remains a major driver of Japan’s price rise. Reuters reports that non-fresh food prices soared by 6.9 per cent in May, while the cost of rice skyrocketed by 93.2 per cent. Additionally, services inflation, which the BOJ closely monitors, rose to 2.2 per cent from 2.0 per cent in April, suggesting firms are beginning to pass labour costs onto consumers. A survey by Teikoku Databank, cited by Reuters, revealed that Japanese companies plan to increase prices on 1,932 food and beverage items in June, triple the number from a year earlier. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda told parliament on Friday that the central bank remains attentive to wage hikes and corporate pricing strategies, both of which are crucial to sustained inflation. “Japan may face a tricky situation where public attention to rising food prices heightens inflation expectations, which have so far been stable,” said Tsutomu Watanabe, professor at the University of Tokyo’s graduate school of economics, in an interview with Reuters. A cautious road ahead for the BOJ The BOJ exited its ultra-loose monetary stance last year and raised short-term rates to 0.5 per cent in January. However, the timing of the next move remains uncertain. While inflation has clearly exceeded the 2 per cent target, the broader economic environment, including shrinking factory output and external shocks from US protectionism, could restrain the bank’s hand. For now, expectations of another rate hike remain on the table, but the path ahead is far from clear. As Japan contends with internal price pressures and external trade risks, the BOJ will need to weigh its next steps with caution and flexibility.

Japan's core inflation in Tokyo reached its highest level in over two years, causing expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ).&nbsp;

Japan’s inflation at two-year high intensifies pressure on rate hike, but US trade tensions cloud outlook

India is poised to weather ongoing global economic turbulence, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest bulletin, which highlights strong macro fundamentals, easing inflation, and strategic foreign exchange management.&nbsp;&nbsp;At the same time, New Delhi is navigating shifting global trade currents — from a critical tariff truce with the US to the successful conclusion of a landmark free trade agreement with the United Kingdom.&nbsp;“The global economic outlook remains clouded amidst shifting policy landscapes and lingering vulnerabilities,” the RBI said in its May bulletin. “India stands well-positioned to navigate the ongoing global headwinds with confidence, ready to harness emerging opportunities and consolidate its role as a key driver of global growth.”<h2>RBI eases rates, inflation cools</h2>Retail inflation dropped to 3.16 per cent in April, marking the third consecutive month below the RBI’s 4 per cent target and the lowest level since July 2019. With inflationary pressures easing, the central bank adopted an ‘accommodative’ monetary policy stance, cutting rates for the second time in April and signalling further support to spur growth.&nbsp;The bulletin also warned of increasing temperature anomalies affecting vegetable prices, calling for quicker adoption of climate-resilient crops to support long-term price stability.<h2>Forex reserves surge amid rupee rally</h2>In a sign of active intervention, the RBI reported a net purchase of $14.36 billion in the spot foreign exchange market in March, reversing a $1.6 billion net sale in February. This move came as the Indian rupee appreciated over 2 per cent during the month, buoyed by a weaker US dollar and strong foreign inflows.&nbsp;The rupee traded between 85.39 and 87.44 per US dollar in March and stood at 85.6375 on 22 May. Meanwhile, the RBI’s net forward sale contracts stood at $84.35 billion by end-March, indicating continued efforts to manage currency volatility.<h2>IMF outlook: India to remain fastest-growing major economy</h2>The International Monetary Fund (IMF) echoed a similarly positive tone. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected India’s economy to grow by 6.8 per cent in 2025, making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world.&nbsp; The Fund credited robust domestic demand, public infrastructure spending, and resilient services exports for India’s growth momentum, even as global growth remains subdued.&nbsp;The IMF also praised India’s efforts in maintaining macroeconomic stability, especially amid tight global financial conditions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.<h2>Navigating to global trade tension&nbsp;</h2> The RBI’s optimism comes as India recalibrates its global trade strategy. Following President Donald Trump’s 9 April announcement of a 90-day tariff pause, India is racing to clinch a trade deal with the US to prevent a punitive 26 per cent tariff on Indian exports.&nbsp; The pause provides a narrow window for negotiation, with New Delhi eyeing quicker access for key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and IT services. In contrast, India has scored a major breakthrough on the western front. Earlier this month, India and the UK concluded negotiations for a long-awaited free trade agreement (FTA) — a deal in the works since January 2022. The India-UK trade pact aims to double bilateral trade from $60 billion to $120 billion by 2030. It eliminates import duties on 99 per cent of Indian goods entering the UK, granting enhanced access for sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, auto parts, and agriculture. In return, British firms will gain broader access to India’s fast-growing market, including in areas like legal services, education, and renewable energy.&nbsp; India has also ensured protection for sensitive sectors, maintaining a balance between liberalisation and domestic interests.&nbsp;

Business & Economy: RBI's bulletin comes at a time when New Delhi is navigating shifting global trade currents — from a critical tariff truce with the US to the successful conclusion of a landmark free trade agreement with the United Kingdom.

India is poised to weather ongoing global economic turbulence, according to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest bulletin, which highlights strong macro fundamentals, easing inflation, and strategic foreign exchange management. At the same time, New Delhi is navigating shifting global trade currents — from a critical tariff truce with the US to the successful conclusion of a landmark free trade agreement with the United Kingdom. “The global economic outlook remains clouded amidst shifting policy landscapes and lingering vulnerabilities,” the RBI said in its May bulletin. “India stands well-positioned to navigate the ongoing global headwinds with confidence, ready to harness emerging opportunities and consolidate its role as a key driver of global growth.” RBI eases rates, inflation cools Retail inflation dropped to 3.16 per cent in April, marking the third consecutive month below the RBI’s 4 per cent target and the lowest level since July 2019. With inflationary pressures easing, the central bank adopted an ‘accommodative’ monetary policy stance, cutting rates for the second time in April and signalling further support to spur growth. The bulletin also warned of increasing temperature anomalies affecting vegetable prices, calling for quicker adoption of climate-resilient crops to support long-term price stability. Forex reserves surge amid rupee rally In a sign of active intervention, the RBI reported a net purchase of $14.36 billion in the spot foreign exchange market in March, reversing a $1.6 billion net sale in February. This move came as the Indian rupee appreciated over 2 per cent during the month, buoyed by a weaker US dollar and strong foreign inflows. The rupee traded between 85.39 and 87.44 per US dollar in March and stood at 85.6375 on 22 May. Meanwhile, the RBI’s net forward sale contracts stood at $84.35 billion by end-March, indicating continued efforts to manage currency volatility. IMF outlook: India to remain fastest-growing major economy The International Monetary Fund (IMF) echoed a similarly positive tone. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected India’s economy to grow by 6.8 per cent in 2025, making it the fastest-growing major economy in the world. The Fund credited robust domestic demand, public infrastructure spending, and resilient services exports for India’s growth momentum, even as global growth remains subdued. The IMF also praised India’s efforts in maintaining macroeconomic stability, especially amid tight global financial conditions and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. Navigating to global trade tension The RBI’s optimism comes as India recalibrates its global trade strategy. Following President Donald Trump’s 9 April announcement of a 90-day tariff pause, India is racing to clinch a trade deal with the US to prevent a punitive 26 per cent tariff on Indian exports. The pause provides a narrow window for negotiation, with New Delhi eyeing quicker access for key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and IT services. In contrast, India has scored a major breakthrough on the western front. Earlier this month, India and the UK concluded negotiations for a long-awaited free trade agreement (FTA) — a deal in the works since January 2022. The India-UK trade pact aims to double bilateral trade from $60 billion to $120 billion by 2030. It eliminates import duties on 99 per cent of Indian goods entering the UK, granting enhanced access for sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, auto parts, and agriculture. In return, British firms will gain broader access to India’s fast-growing market, including in areas like legal services, education, and renewable energy. India has also ensured protection for sensitive sectors, maintaining a balance between liberalisation and domestic interests.

&nbsp;According to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) latest bulletin, India is poised to weather ongoing global economic turbulence, highlighting strong macro fundamentals, easing inflation, and strategic foreign exchange management.&nbsp;

RBI says India remains resilient as global trade landscape shifts

Russia&rsquo;s economy is showing signs of weakening, as official statistics reveal a sharp decline in growth in the first quarter of 2025. According to preliminary data released by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on May 16, the country&rsquo;s gross domestic product (GDP) rose by just 1.4 per cent year-on-year. This marks a steep fall from the 4.5 per cent growth reported in the previous quarter and 5.4 per cent in the same period last year.
The slowdown came in below forecasts from both the Russian Economic Development Ministry, which predicted 1.7 per cent, and analysts at Bloomberg, who expected 1.8 per cent. Notably, Rosstat's quarter-on-quarter data showed the economy contracted by 0.4 per cent&mdash;its first quarterly decline since 2022&mdash;signalling growing economic vulnerability.
Experts have attributed the downturn to a combination of factors, including the central bank&rsquo;s high interest rate policy, persistent inflation, supply chain disruptions, and falling revenues from energy exports. From January to April, oil and gas revenues dropped by 10 per cent&mdash;a significant blow to a country that relies heavily on its energy sector.
<h2 dir="ltr">Economy in trouble?</h2>
Despite the troubling first quarter, Rosstat recently revised its GDP growth estimate for 2024 upward to 4.3 per cent, citing stronger-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter. However, doubts are growing about the reliability of Russia&rsquo;s economic statistics.
A report by the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) warned that the Russian economy&rsquo;s resilience is only superficial. It noted deepening structural weaknesses, unsustainable fiscal practices, and an overreliance on military-driven stimulus.
Reuters reported that Torbjorn Becker of SITE pointed to discrepancies in Russia&rsquo;s inflation and monetary policy data as evidence that real GDP growth may be overstated. &ldquo;Russia claims inflation is 9&ndash;10 per cent. Why then is the central bank&rsquo;s key rate set at 21 per cent?&rdquo; he asked, arguing that understated inflation leads to inflated real GDP figures.
The SITE report, presented to European Union finance ministers, further claimed that Russia&rsquo;s budget deficit is likely larger than officially reported due to off-the-books war financing via the banking system. Official figures cite deficits of 2.3 per cent of GDP in 2022, 1.9 per cent in 2023, and 1.7 per cent in 2024&mdash;yet SITE estimates suggest the real fiscal shortfall could be twice as large, raising concerns about looming banking sector risks.
<h2 dir="ltr">War and sanctions compounding economic pressure</h2>
The long-term impact of sanctions continues to weigh heavily on the Russian economy. The Russian Finance Ministry reportedly acknowledged &ldquo;hundreds of billions of dollars&rdquo; in direct losses to the financial sector, while energy export earnings fell by an estimated $78.5 billion between December 2022 and June 2024, according to the Kyiv School of Economics.
Russia&rsquo;s pivot to a war economy has led to a surge in military spending, but this has come at the cost of consumer sector stability. Civilian businesses are struggling under the burden of soaring interest rates and inflation.
In 2024, inflation reached 9.5 per cent, and bankruptcies rose 26 per cent year-on-year in the first three quarters, totalling 6,392 corporate insolvencies, according to Interfax.
Even as Moscow touts growth figures, Western analysts and institutions like the IMF are sceptical. The IMF estimates that while Russia&rsquo;s economy grew by 3.8 per cent in 2024, growth will slow to 1.4 per cent in 2025 and just 1.2 per cent in 2026.
<h2 dir="ltr">Peace talks, but no ceasefire yet</h2>
Adding to the uncertainty are recent developments in the ongoing war in Ukraine. On May 16, Russia and Ukraine held their first direct peace talks since early 2022, agreeing to a large prisoner swap involving 1,000 prisoners each. However, significant gaps remain, especially over the issue of a ceasefire.
Ukrainian officials, backed by Western allies, have insisted on a temporary ceasefire as a first step toward broader peace. Russia has so far resisted this proposal. The two sides exchanged ceasefire proposals and discussed a potential meeting between their presidents, though no agreements were finalised.
Analysts warn that any reduction in military spending following a peace deal could deliver a short-term shock to Russia&rsquo;s already strained economy. Conversely, failure to reach an agreement could trigger a new round of sanctions from the West, compounding existing pressures.
&nbsp;

Business & Economy: According to data released by Rosstat, Russia’s GDP rose by just 1.4 per cent year-on-year, a steep fall from the 4.5 per cent in the last quarter

Russia’s economy is showing signs of weakening, as official statistics reveal a sharp decline in growth in the first quarter of 2025. According to preliminary data released by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) on May 16, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose by just 1.4 per cent year-on-year. This marks a steep fall from the 4.5 per cent growth reported in the previous quarter and 5.4 per cent in the same period last year. The slowdown came in below forecasts from both the Russian Economic Development Ministry, which predicted 1.7 per cent, and analysts at Bloomberg, who expected 1.8 per cent. Notably, Rosstat's quarter-on-quarter data showed the economy contracted by 0.4 per cent—its first quarterly decline since 2022—signalling growing economic vulnerability. Experts have attributed the downturn to a combination of factors, including the central bank’s high interest rate policy, persistent inflation, supply chain disruptions, and falling revenues from energy exports. From January to April, oil and gas revenues dropped by 10 per cent—a significant blow to a country that relies heavily on its energy sector. Economy in trouble? Despite the troubling first quarter, Rosstat recently revised its GDP growth estimate for 2024 upward to 4.3 per cent, citing stronger-than-expected performance in the fourth quarter. However, doubts are growing about the reliability of Russia’s economic statistics. A report by the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics (SITE) warned that the Russian economy’s resilience is only superficial. It noted deepening structural weaknesses, unsustainable fiscal practices, and an overreliance on military-driven stimulus. Reuters reported that Torbjorn Becker of SITE pointed to discrepancies in Russia’s inflation and monetary policy data as evidence that real GDP growth may be overstated. “Russia claims inflation is 9–10 per cent. Why then is the central bank’s key rate set at 21 per cent?” he asked, arguing that understated inflation leads to inflated real GDP figures. The SITE report, presented to European Union finance ministers, further claimed that Russia’s budget deficit is likely larger than officially reported due to off-the-books war financing via the banking system. Official figures cite deficits of 2.3 per cent of GDP in 2022, 1.9 per cent in 2023, and 1.7 per cent in 2024—yet SITE estimates suggest the real fiscal shortfall could be twice as large, raising concerns about looming banking sector risks. War and sanctions compounding economic pressure The long-term impact of sanctions continues to weigh heavily on the Russian economy. The Russian Finance Ministry reportedly acknowledged “hundreds of billions of dollars” in direct losses to the financial sector, while energy export earnings fell by an estimated $78.5 billion between December 2022 and June 2024, according to the Kyiv School of Economics. Russia’s pivot to a war economy has led to a surge in military spending, but this has come at the cost of consumer sector stability. Civilian businesses are struggling under the burden of soaring interest rates and inflation. In 2024, inflation reached 9.5 per cent, and bankruptcies rose 26 per cent year-on-year in the first three quarters, totalling 6,392 corporate insolvencies, according to Interfax. Even as Moscow touts growth figures, Western analysts and institutions like the IMF are sceptical. The IMF estimates that while Russia’s economy grew by 3.8 per cent in 2024, growth will slow to 1.4 per cent in 2025 and just 1.2 per cent in 2026. Peace talks, but no ceasefire yet Adding to the uncertainty are recent developments in the ongoing war in Ukraine. On May 16, Russia and Ukraine held their first direct peace talks since early 2022, agreeing to a large prisoner swap involving 1,000 prisoners each. However, significant gaps remain, especially over the issue of a ceasefire. Ukrainian officials, backed by Western allies, have insisted on a temporary ceasefire as a first step toward broader peace. Russia has so far resisted this proposal. The two sides exchanged ceasefire proposals and discussed a potential meeting between their presidents, though no agreements were finalised. Analysts warn that any reduction in military spending following a peace deal could deliver a short-term shock to Russia’s already strained economy. Conversely, failure to reach an agreement could trigger a new round of sanctions from the West, compounding existing pressures.

Are deeper structural risks weighing Russian economy down?

India&rsquo;s retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 3.16 per cent in April, from 3.34 per cent in March. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation since July 2019, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics &amp; Programme Implementation on May 13.
The moderation in inflation was primarily driven by a significant decline in food prices. Food inflation fell sharply to 1.78 per cent in April from 2.69 per cent in March&mdash;a decline of 91 basis points. This is the lowest level of food inflation recorded since October 2021.
The steep decline is attributed to lower inflation in vegetables, pulses, fruits, meat and fish, personal care items, and cereals.
Rural inflation slowed more sharply, falling to 2.92 per cent in April from 3.25 per cent in March. Rural food inflation dropped to 1.85 per cent from 2.82 per cent. In urban areas, inflation dipped to 3.36 per cent from 3.43 per cent, while urban food inflation saw a more pronounced decline to 1.64 per cent from 2.48 per cent in March.
Kerala witnessed the highest inflation at 5.94 per cent year-on-year, followed by Karnataka (4.26 per cent), Jammu &amp; Kashmir (4.25 per cent) and Punjab (4.09 per cent), while Telangana and Delhi saw the lowest inflation at 1.26 per cent and 1.77 per cent, respectively.
Among key components, housing inflation remained stable at 3.00 per cent compared to 3.03 per cent in March, while education inflation ticked up to 4.13 per cent from 3.98 per cent. Health inflation remained flat at 4.25 per cent.
But notably, fuel and light inflation advanced to 2.92 per cent, from 1.42 per cent the previous month. Transport and communication inflation rose to 3.73 per cent from 3.36 per cent.
<h2 dir="ltr">RBI&rsquo;s target holds steady</h2>
The Reserve Bank of India, which has been mandated to ensure inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side, has cut the key interest rate by 50 basis points in two tranches (February and April) to 6 per cent underpinned by easing inflation.
The central bank has projected the CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 at 4 per cent, with Q1 at 3.6 per cent, Q2 at 3.9 per cent, Q3 at 3.8 per cent, and Q4 at 4.4 per cent.
With inflation trends remaining well within the target range, market expectations for a potential rate cut in the upcoming meeting of RBI&rsquo;s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in June have strengthened.
&nbsp;

Business & Economy: The moderation in inflation was primarily driven by a decline in food prices. Food inflation fell to 1.78 per cent, the lowest since October 2021.

India’s retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), eased to 3.16 per cent in April, from 3.34 per cent in March. It is the lowest year-on-year inflation since July 2019, according to data released by the Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation on May 13. The moderation in inflation was primarily driven by a significant decline in food prices. Food inflation fell sharply to 1.78 per cent in April from 2.69 per cent in March—a decline of 91 basis points. This is the lowest level of food inflation recorded since October 2021. The steep decline is attributed to lower inflation in vegetables, pulses, fruits, meat and fish, personal care items, and cereals. Rural inflation slowed more sharply, falling to 2.92 per cent in April from 3.25 per cent in March. Rural food inflation dropped to 1.85 per cent from 2.82 per cent. In urban areas, inflation dipped to 3.36 per cent from 3.43 per cent, while urban food inflation saw a more pronounced decline to 1.64 per cent from 2.48 per cent in March. Kerala witnessed the highest inflation at 5.94 per cent year-on-year, followed by Karnataka (4.26 per cent), Jammu & Kashmir (4.25 per cent) and Punjab (4.09 per cent), while Telangana and Delhi saw the lowest inflation at 1.26 per cent and 1.77 per cent, respectively. Among key components, housing inflation remained stable at 3.00 per cent compared to 3.03 per cent in March, while education inflation ticked up to 4.13 per cent from 3.98 per cent. Health inflation remained flat at 4.25 per cent. But notably, fuel and light inflation advanced to 2.92 per cent, from 1.42 per cent the previous month. Transport and communication inflation rose to 3.73 per cent from 3.36 per cent. RBI’s target holds steady The Reserve Bank of India, which has been mandated to ensure inflation remains at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side, has cut the key interest rate by 50 basis points in two tranches (February and April) to 6 per cent underpinned by easing inflation. The central bank has projected the CPI inflation for the financial year 2025-26 at 4 per cent, with Q1 at 3.6 per cent, Q2 at 3.9 per cent, Q3 at 3.8 per cent, and Q4 at 4.4 per cent. With inflation trends remaining well within the target range, market expectations for a potential rate cut in the upcoming meeting of RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in June have strengthened.

India’s retail inflation hits a 6-year low as food prices cool

In the Week Ahead, Analysts Will Look at Tariffs First.

Markets Welcomed the UK-US Deal Last Week, Presumably Because It Increases the Chances of a Wider De-escalation.

U.S. Inflation Starting To Stir?

The Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has voted to lower the benchmark bank rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25 per cent, marking a cautious step towards easing policy amid ongoing progress on disinflation.
&nbsp;
This decision, announced on May 08, was passed by a narrow majority of 5-4. While two members advocated for a more significant 0.5 percentage point cut to 4 per cent, and two others argued to keep the rate unchanged at 4.5 per cent.&nbsp;
&nbsp;
The cut had been widely expected, especially after a slowdown in price rises, with inflation cooling to 2.6 per cent in the twelve months to March (from 2.8 per cent in February), as energy prices have retreated and the restrictive monetary stance has helped contain second-round inflationary effects.
&nbsp;
Despite the recent decline in inflation, the MPC remains cautious, stating that interest rates will need to stay in restrictive territory to guard against any persistent inflation pressures. The committee noted that inflationary risks could still shift in either direction, with global trade uncertainties and tariff-related volatility contributing to market fluctuations.
&nbsp;
&ldquo;We expect an increase in inflation this year. It is likely to rise temporarily to 3.7 per cent, partly because of higher energy prices. Inflation is expected to fall back to the 2 per cent target after that&hellip;There is also a lot of uncertainty from global developments, partly because of changes in global trade policies. We are assessing what this could mean for UK inflation closely,&rdquo; said BoE Governor Andrew Bailey.
&nbsp;
&ldquo;We need to be confident that inflation will remain low and stable in a lasting way. We will decide carefully how much further and how fast we can cut interest rates,&rdquo; he added.
&nbsp;
<h2>UK economy's health check</h2>
&nbsp;
The UK economy has shown signs of slowing growth, with GDP growth decelerating since mid-2024 and the labour market loosening. Wage growth, though still elevated, is expected to decline sharply later in the year. Energy prices have fallen, but increases earlier in the year are still expected to push inflation back up to 3.5 per cent by the third quarter of 2025 before easing once more.
&nbsp;
The underlying GDP growth is expected to have been around zero in 2025 Q1, well below the central bank&rsquo;s projection for headline growth of 0.6 per cent. The S&amp;P Global UK composite output PMI declined significantly in April, suggesting downside risks around the near-term outlook. Household spending growth has remained subdued over recent quarters, although real incomes have risen quite strongly such that the saving ratio increased to 11.6 per cent in 2024 Q4, its highest level since the pandemic.
&nbsp;
The country&rsquo;s employment growth has also softened recently, and the labour market has continued to loosen. The ratio of vacancies to unemployment has fallen further and is now judged to be below its equilibrium level.
&nbsp;
The central bank's May Report sets out two illustrative scenarios. In one scenario, there could be weaker supply and more persistence in domestic wages and prices, including from second-round effects related to the near-term increase in CPI inflation. In another scenario, inflationary pressures could ease more quickly owing to greater or longer-lasting weakness in demand relative to supply, in part reflecting uncertainties globally and domestically.
&nbsp;
The committee emphasised that monetary policy is not on a preset path and will be responsive to changes in the economic landscape.
&nbsp;
The future decisions on interest rates will depend on how inflation and the economy evolve, with the goal of returning inflation to the 2 per cent target in the medium term, the committee said in a statement.
&nbsp;
<h2>Who will it help?</h2>
&nbsp;
The Bank of England&rsquo;s recent 25-basis-point interest rate cut is set to benefit homeowners, particularly those looking to buy or remortgage. With a significant portion of UK homeowners on fixed-rate mortgages, the rate reduction is beneficial for those whose fixed-rate terms are ending in 2025, as it could lead to cheaper mortgage deals. While the cut won&rsquo;t impact those with existing fixed-rate mortgages, experts say it may help stimulate the housing market by improving affordability and providing lenders with room to compete, particularly among first-time buyers.
&nbsp;
In addition to this, the rate cut is also expected to benefit consumers and businesses. Borrowers with credit cards and personal loans may see lower interest rates, depending on their credit history. For businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, lower rates could make borrowing cheaper, providing relief after recent cost increases like the national minimum wage hike. With reduced borrowing costs, firms may have more cash for investment, potentially boosting consumer confidence and spending, helping the UK economy recover.

Business & Economy: Despite the recent decline in inflation, the MPC remains cautious, stating that interest rates will need to stay in restrictive territory

The Bank of England's (BoE) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has voted to lower the benchmark bank rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.25 per cent, marking a cautious step towards easing policy amid ongoing progress on disinflation. This decision, announced on May 08, was passed by a narrow majority of 5-4. While two members advocated for a more significant 0.5 percentage point cut to 4 per cent, and two others argued to keep the rate unchanged at 4.5 per cent. The cut had been widely expected, especially after a slowdown in price rises, with inflation cooling to 2.6 per cent in the twelve months to March (from 2.8 per cent in February), as energy prices have retreated and the restrictive monetary stance has helped contain second-round inflationary effects. Despite the recent decline in inflation, the MPC remains cautious, stating that interest rates will need to stay in restrictive territory to guard against any persistent inflation pressures. The committee noted that inflationary risks could still shift in either direction, with global trade uncertainties and tariff-related volatility contributing to market fluctuations. “We expect an increase in inflation this year. It is likely to rise temporarily to 3.7 per cent, partly because of higher energy prices. Inflation is expected to fall back to the 2 per cent target after that…There is also a lot of uncertainty from global developments, partly because of changes in global trade policies. We are assessing what this could mean for UK inflation closely,” said BoE Governor Andrew Bailey. “We need to be confident that inflation will remain low and stable in a lasting way. We will decide carefully how much further and how fast we can cut interest rates,” he added. UK economy's health check The UK economy has shown signs of slowing growth, with GDP growth decelerating since mid-2024 and the labour market loosening. Wage growth, though still elevated, is expected to decline sharply later in the year. Energy prices have fallen, but increases earlier in the year are still expected to push inflation back up to 3.5 per cent by the third quarter of 2025 before easing once more. The underlying GDP growth is expected to have been around zero in 2025 Q1, well below the central bank’s projection for headline growth of 0.6 per cent. The S&P Global UK composite output PMI declined significantly in April, suggesting downside risks around the near-term outlook. Household spending growth has remained subdued over recent quarters, although real incomes have risen quite strongly such that the saving ratio increased to 11.6 per cent in 2024 Q4, its highest level since the pandemic. The country’s employment growth has also softened recently, and the labour market has continued to loosen. The ratio of vacancies to unemployment has fallen further and is now judged to be below its equilibrium level. The central bank's May Report sets out two illustrative scenarios. In one scenario, there could be weaker supply and more persistence in domestic wages and prices, including from second-round effects related to the near-term increase in CPI inflation. In another scenario, inflationary pressures could ease more quickly owing to greater or longer-lasting weakness in demand relative to supply, in part reflecting uncertainties globally and domestically. The committee emphasised that monetary policy is not on a preset path and will be responsive to changes in the economic landscape. The future decisions on interest rates will depend on how inflation and the economy evolve, with the goal of returning inflation to the 2 per cent target in the medium term, the committee said in a statement. Who will it help? The Bank of England’s recent 25-basis-point interest rate cut is set to benefit homeowners, particularly those looking to buy or remortgage. With a significant portion of UK homeowners on fixed-rate mortgages, the rate reduction is beneficial for those whose fixed-rate terms are ending in 2025, as it could lead to cheaper mortgage deals. While the cut won’t impact those with existing fixed-rate mortgages, experts say it may help stimulate the housing market by improving affordability and providing lenders with room to compete, particularly among first-time buyers. In addition to this, the rate cut is also expected to benefit consumers and businesses. Borrowers with credit cards and personal loans may see lower interest rates, depending on their credit history. For businesses, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, lower rates could make borrowing cheaper, providing relief after recent cost increases like the national minimum wage hike. With reduced borrowing costs, firms may have more cash for investment, potentially boosting consumer confidence and spending, helping the UK economy recover.

Bank of England reduces interest rates to 4.25% as tariffs hit growth

The world markets have been on a rollercoaster since Donald Trump took office on January 20. Countries and corporations have been reeling from the tariff turmoil since then. But the very idea that Trump touted as his primary objective, 'To make America rich again,' is under scrutiny from economists, politicians, and the latest economic data. The US economy contracted by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 &mdash; the first decline in three years. Businesses rush to import goods ahead of sweeping new tariffs, which Trump believes have nothing to do with the GDP decline.<o:p></o:p>
<h2 class="MsoNormal">US economy shrinks as imports soar<o:p></o:p></h2>
Imports surged 41.3 per cent, the biggest jump since the pandemic-era third quarter of 2020. This front-loading, driven by uncertainty, overwhelmed modest export gains and a rebound in inventories. The data comes after the goods trade deficit hit an all-time high in March, forcing economists to sharply revise their growth estimates.<o:p></o:p>
Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of the economy, slowed in the previous quarter. Households have pulled purchases forward and are saving amid rising uncertainty.&nbsp;
Meanwhile, core inflation also accelerated &mdash; the core personal consumption expenditures index rose, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve as it weighs further rate cuts later this year. Final sales to private domestic purchasers grew a solid 3.0 per cent, but economists caution that this measure has been distorted by tariff effects. The contraction in GDP has triggered sharp political and market reactions. All major Wall Street indices fell, and treasury yields climbed.&nbsp;<o:p></o:p>President Trump blamed the slowdown on Biden-era policies but defended his trade approach, calling the surge in investment a sign of economic strength.<o:p></o:p>
Donald Trump, US President, said, "Core GDP (gross domestic product), and this is, you know, you probably saw some numbers today. And I have to start off by saying, that's [Joe] Biden. That's not Trump, because we came in on January. These are quarterly numbers. And we came in, and I was very against everything that Biden was doing in terms of the economy, destroying our country in so many ways, not only at the border."<o:p></o:p>
Economists warn that while the contraction may not mark the start of a recession, the combination of trade disruption and policy uncertainty has significantly raised the risk.<o:p></o:p>

Business & Economy: The US economy contracted by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 — the first decline in three years. This comes as businesses rush to import goods ahead of sweeping new tariffs.

The world markets have been on a rollercoaster since Donald Trump took office on January 20. Countries and corporations have been reeling from the tariff turmoil since then. But the very idea that Trump touted as his primary objective, 'To make America rich again,' is under scrutiny from economists, politicians, and the latest economic data. The US economy contracted by 0.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 — the first decline in three years. Businesses rush to import goods ahead of sweeping new tariffs, which Trump believes have nothing to do with the GDP decline. US economy shrinks as imports soar Imports surged 41.3 per cent, the biggest jump since the pandemic-era third quarter of 2020. This front-loading, driven by uncertainty, overwhelmed modest export gains and a rebound in inventories. The data comes after the goods trade deficit hit an all-time high in March, forcing economists to sharply revise their growth estimates. Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of the economy, slowed in the previous quarter. Households have pulled purchases forward and are saving amid rising uncertainty. Meanwhile, core inflation also accelerated — the core personal consumption expenditures index rose, keeping pressure on the Federal Reserve as it weighs further rate cuts later this year. Final sales to private domestic purchasers grew a solid 3.0 per cent, but economists caution that this measure has been distorted by tariff effects. The contraction in GDP has triggered sharp political and market reactions. All major Wall Street indices fell, and treasury yields climbed. President Trump blamed the slowdown on Biden-era policies but defended his trade approach, calling the surge in investment a sign of economic strength. Donald Trump, US President, said, "Core GDP (gross domestic product), and this is, you know, you probably saw some numbers today. And I have to start off by saying, that's [Joe] Biden. That's not Trump, because we came in on January. These are quarterly numbers. And we came in, and I was very against everything that Biden was doing in terms of the economy, destroying our country in so many ways, not only at the border." Economists warn that while the contraction may not mark the start of a recession, the combination of trade disruption and policy uncertainty has significantly raised the risk.

Are tariffs taking a 'bite' out of the US economy?

<div class="x_elementToProof" data-olk-copy-source="MessageBody">A piping hot cup of coffee has long been a morning ritual for millions. But that ritual is coming with a heavier price tag &mdash; and not just because of inflation. From drought-hit plantations in Brazil to unpredictable the US trade policies, the global coffee supply chain is under siege. Here&rsquo;s why your favorite brew might soon feel like a luxury.</div>
<h2 class="x_elementToProof">Climate crisis hits coffee farms hard</h2>
<div class="x_elementToProof">Climate change is wreaking havoc in coffee-growing regions, especially in Brazil and Vietnam, which are also two powerhouses in global production.</div>
<div class="x_elementToProof">Extreme heat and prolonged drought have reduced yields drastically, driving up bean prices across the board. As reported by the Associated Press (AP), global green coffee exports fell by 14.2% in February compared to last year.</div>
<div class="x_elementToProof">Rene&eacute; Col&oacute;n, owner of Fuego Coffee Roasters in New York, told AP that she paid $5.50 per pound for beans in March, a sharp jump from just $2.50 in September. That&rsquo;s more than double the cost in just six months.</div>
<div class="x_elementToProof">She warned of worsening scarcity: &ldquo;Coffee is going to become scarcer. The Brazilian crop loss we just saw is a prime example of how climate extremes are affecting supply,&rdquo; she told AP.</div>
<h2 class="x_elementToProof">Trump tariffs brew fresh trouble</h2>
<div class="x_elementToProof">As if climate wasn&rsquo;t enough, the US import tariffs under President Donald Trump are further tightening the screws.</div>
<div class="x_elementToProof">Currently, a 10% import tariff applies to coffee imports from Brazil, Ethiopia, and Colombia &mdash; three major coffee-exporting nations. Trump had also threatened 46% tariffs on Vietnamese coffee and 32% on Indonesian imports. Although these specific hikes were paused, the mere announcements sent shockwaves through the coffee industry.</div>
<div class="x_elementToProof">Coffee buyers and roasters are struggling to make sense of the constant policy flip-flops.</div>
<div class="x_elementToProof">&ldquo;It felt like a rollercoaster,&rdquo; said Daria Whalen, a buyer at Ritual Coffee Roasters, while speaking to AP. She described being in Mexico during April as she scrambled to secure contracts amid uncertainty over which tariffs would take effect and when. &ldquo;By the end of the day, sometimes the tariffs just disappeared,&rdquo; she added.</div>
<div class="x_elementToProof">This unpredictability is forcing businesses to rework supply chains. Many roasters are now pre-buying stock, fearing future tariffs. But that also drives up short-term demand and prices.</div>
<h2 class="x_elementToProof">Prices, profits and panic: A triple-whammy situation</h2>
<div class="x_elementToProof">Coffee roasters are now walking a tightrope: how much of the rising cost can they absorb, and how much can they pass on to consumers?</div>
<div class="x_elementToProof">Col&oacute;n shared with AP that her business has already raised wholesale bean prices by 25 cents per pound and may soon raise prices for espresso drinks and pour-overs at her cafes. Yet, she&rsquo;s wary of losing customers as consumer confidence in the U.S. hits a 12-year low.</div>
<div class="x_elementToProof">&ldquo;It&rsquo;s tough on every side,&rdquo; she told AP. &ldquo;The price goes up for us, the consumer pays more, and the farmers suffer massive losses from droughts and storms.&rdquo;</div>
<h2 class="x_elementToProof">How small businesses are adapting?</h2>
<div class="x_elementToProof">Despite the odds, Col&oacute;n is expanding. According to AP, she and her husband took out a $50,000 loan in December to purchase a custom coffee roaster from Turkey, tripling their roasting capacity. They&rsquo;re also focusing on direct-to-consumer sales through a subscription model and pursuing more wholesale clients.</div>
<div class="x_elementToProof">To save costs, she&rsquo;s exploring in-house storage of raw beans, avoiding monthly charges of $500 at port-side warehouses.</div>
<div class="x_elementToProof">And while international suppliers have approached her with cost-saving alternatives &mdash; like routing coffee through Canada due to a strong U.S. dollar &mdash; Col&oacute;n isn&rsquo;t biting.</div>
<div class="x_elementToProof">&ldquo;That adds more borders, more delays, more confusion,&rdquo; she told AP. &ldquo;I want things to be less complicated, not more.&rdquo;</div>

Business & Economy: Uncover how climate and trade disruptions are impacting the coffee industry, and making your favorite cup of latte more costly.

A piping hot cup of coffee has long been a morning ritual for millions. But that ritual is coming with a heavier price tag — and not just because of inflation. From drought-hit plantations in Brazil to unpredictable the US trade policies, the global coffee supply chain is under siege. Here’s why your favorite brew might soon feel like a luxury. Climate crisis hits coffee farms hard Climate change is wreaking havoc in coffee-growing regions, especially in Brazil and Vietnam, which are also two powerhouses in global production. Extreme heat and prolonged drought have reduced yields drastically, driving up bean prices across the board. As reported by the Associated Press (AP), global green coffee exports fell by 14.2% in February compared to last year. Reneé Colón, owner of Fuego Coffee Roasters in New York, told AP that she paid $5.50 per pound for beans in March, a sharp jump from just $2.50 in September. That’s more than double the cost in just six months. She warned of worsening scarcity: “Coffee is going to become scarcer. The Brazilian crop loss we just saw is a prime example of how climate extremes are affecting supply,” she told AP. Trump tariffs brew fresh trouble As if climate wasn’t enough, the US import tariffs under President Donald Trump are further tightening the screws. Currently, a 10% import tariff applies to coffee imports from Brazil, Ethiopia, and Colombia — three major coffee-exporting nations. Trump had also threatened 46% tariffs on Vietnamese coffee and 32% on Indonesian imports. Although these specific hikes were paused, the mere announcements sent shockwaves through the coffee industry. Coffee buyers and roasters are struggling to make sense of the constant policy flip-flops. “It felt like a rollercoaster,” said Daria Whalen, a buyer at Ritual Coffee Roasters, while speaking to AP. She described being in Mexico during April as she scrambled to secure contracts amid uncertainty over which tariffs would take effect and when. “By the end of the day, sometimes the tariffs just disappeared,” she added. This unpredictability is forcing businesses to rework supply chains. Many roasters are now pre-buying stock, fearing future tariffs. But that also drives up short-term demand and prices. Prices, profits and panic: A triple-whammy situation Coffee roasters are now walking a tightrope: how much of the rising cost can they absorb, and how much can they pass on to consumers? Colón shared with AP that her business has already raised wholesale bean prices by 25 cents per pound and may soon raise prices for espresso drinks and pour-overs at her cafes. Yet, she’s wary of losing customers as consumer confidence in the U.S. hits a 12-year low. “It’s tough on every side,” she told AP. “The price goes up for us, the consumer pays more, and the farmers suffer massive losses from droughts and storms.” How small businesses are adapting? Despite the odds, Colón is expanding. According to AP, she and her husband took out a $50,000 loan in December to purchase a custom coffee roaster from Turkey, tripling their roasting capacity. They’re also focusing on direct-to-consumer sales through a subscription model and pursuing more wholesale clients. To save costs, she’s exploring in-house storage of raw beans, avoiding monthly charges of $500 at port-side warehouses. And while international suppliers have approached her with cost-saving alternatives — like routing coffee through Canada due to a strong U.S. dollar — Colón isn’t biting. “That adds more borders, more delays, more confusion,” she told AP. “I want things to be less complicated, not more.”

Is your coffee getting pricier?: Here’s how climate change and Trump tariff is affecting it

US President Donald Trump will be delivering a speech in Macomb County, Michigan, outside Detroit on Tuesday evening to mark the first 100 days in office of his second term and is expected to highlight the achievements so far.
&ldquo;Inflation has cooled, consumer prices dropped month-over-month for the first time in three years, and gas prices are lower across the country,&rdquo; the White House said in announcing the speech.&nbsp; It then praised the Department of Government Efficiency for rooting out &ldquo;waste, fraud, and abuse across the executive branch&rdquo; and cancelling &ldquo;numerous discriminatory DEI contracts&rdquo;. DOGE is continuing its work to downsize the government.&nbsp;
Also Read | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/i-run-the-country-and-the-world-trump-brags-in-interview-9011985">&lsquo;I run the country and the world,&rsquo; Trump brags in interview</a>
The Macomb Community College in Warren, Michigan, is hosting President Trump for his remarks. Trump is expected to also highlight mass deportation operations and the changes he&rsquo;s making to the global trade landscape. The Trump administration claims it has secured the US border in the president&rsquo;s first 100 days in office, and illegal border crossings have hit lows not seen in decades, while the administration is working to deport migrants accused or convicted of violent crimes and drug-related offences.
However, these actions have not gone unopposed and have prompted scores of lawsuits filed by ousted government employees, migrants fighting their deportation, and business owners who argue the president&rsquo;s tariffs are unlawful.
Also Read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/china-donald-trump-xi-jinping-call-us-president-trade-war-9011352" rel="dofollow noopener" target="_blank">'First stop threatening, blackmailing China': Beijing calls out Trump over 'fake' Xi call. Was US prez bluffing to end trade war?</a>
The 100-day mark comes as the Trump administration is working out trade negotiations with countries across the world after levying tariffs on foreign imports.&nbsp; However, Americans are worried that the tariffs will contribute to higher prices at a time when high prices are a top concern for voters.
Also Read | <a href="https://www.wionews.com/autonews/trump-administration-to-ease-auto-tariff-impact-offering-relief-to-automakers-9014606">Trump administration to ease auto tariff impact, offering relief to automakers</a> White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also said that the administration has made significant progress on the foreign policy front.&nbsp; &ldquo;We are closer today to a peace deal in Russia and Ukraine, certainly, than we were when we took office on Jan. 20,&rdquo; Leavitt told reporters Monday.&nbsp; &ldquo;If you look at the situation in the Middle East, Israel has never had a stronger friend than they do right now in the Oval Office with President Trump. We&rsquo;ve had more than 75 hostages who have returned home from around the world who were wrongfully detained individuals.&rdquo;
Also Read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/another-pakistan-about-to-emerge-in-uk-scottish-leader-anas-sarwar-exhorts-pakistanis-to-take-power-watch-9011598" target="_blank" rel="noopener">&lsquo;Another Pakistan about to emerge in UK&rsquo;: Scottish leader Anas Sarwar exhorts Pakistanis to &lsquo;take power&rsquo; | Watch</a>

World: The Trump administration claims it has secured the US border in the president’s first 100 days in office, and illegal border crossings have hit lows not seen in decades.

US President Donald Trump will be delivering a speech in Macomb County, Michigan, outside Detroit on Tuesday evening to mark the first 100 days in office of his second term and is expected to highlight the achievements so far. “Inflation has cooled, consumer prices dropped month-over-month for the first time in three years, and gas prices are lower across the country,” the White House said in announcing the speech. It then praised the Department of Government Efficiency for rooting out “waste, fraud, and abuse across the executive branch” and cancelling “numerous discriminatory DEI contracts”. DOGE is continuing its work to downsize the government. Also Read | ‘I run the country and the world,’ Trump brags in interview The Macomb Community College in Warren, Michigan, is hosting President Trump for his remarks. Trump is expected to also highlight mass deportation operations and the changes he’s making to the global trade landscape. The Trump administration claims it has secured the US border in the president’s first 100 days in office, and illegal border crossings have hit lows not seen in decades, while the administration is working to deport migrants accused or convicted of violent crimes and drug-related offences. However, these actions have not gone unopposed and have prompted scores of lawsuits filed by ousted government employees, migrants fighting their deportation, and business owners who argue the president’s tariffs are unlawful. Also Read | 'First stop threatening, blackmailing China': Beijing calls out Trump over 'fake' Xi call. Was US prez bluffing to end trade war? The 100-day mark comes as the Trump administration is working out trade negotiations with countries across the world after levying tariffs on foreign imports. However, Americans are worried that the tariffs will contribute to higher prices at a time when high prices are a top concern for voters. Also Read | Trump administration to ease auto tariff impact, offering relief to automakers White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt also said that the administration has made significant progress on the foreign policy front. “We are closer today to a peace deal in Russia and Ukraine, certainly, than we were when we took office on Jan. 20,” Leavitt told reporters Monday. “If you look at the situation in the Middle East, Israel has never had a stronger friend than they do right now in the Oval Office with President Trump. We’ve had more than 75 hostages who have returned home from around the world who were wrongfully detained individuals.” Also Read | ‘Another Pakistan about to emerge in UK’: Scottish leader Anas Sarwar exhorts Pakistanis to ‘take power’ | Watch

‘Inflation has cooled, consumer and gas prices lower’: Trump to mark first 100 days in office with speech

There's a lot of economic data due this week, and much of it won’t look good. But does that mean an imminent recession? In this report, we dive into the clues investors will look for in the week ahead. Take a look.

US long-term inflation bets climb to highest since 1991

Japan's core inflation rose in March adding pressure on the Bank of Japan ahead of its next policy meeting. The increase comes as persistent food price hikes drive up the cost of living and further complicate the central bank's path for interest rate adjustments. Watch in for more details!

Japan consumer inflation stays above target

Argentina's peso slid 10% on Monday to near 1,200 per dollar after the country undid large parts of its currency and capital controls at the end of last week, part of sealing a $20 billion loan program with the International Monetary Fund.

Argentina peso tumbles after IMF bailout

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