India is facing a fresh food inflation warning as rising edible oil prices, global supply disruptions and weather risks threaten to put additional pressure on household budgets. Inflation is now expected to average around 5.1%, more than double last year's 2% level, with risks tilted to the upside.

Edible oil has emerged as a major pressure point, with packed sunflower oil prices rising around 18%, palm oil around 14%, soybean oil nearly 12%, groundnut oil over 9% and mustard oil more than 7%.

India imports more than half of the edible oil it consumes, making domestic prices highly sensitive to developments in global markets. The Russia-Ukraine war and disruptions in the Black Sea are adding further uncertainty, as Russia and Ukraine remain major suppliers of sunflower products and other agricultural commodities.

At the same time, El Niño-related weather risks could affect India's monsoon and reduce yields of oilseeds such as soybean, groundnut and mustard. While India's food-grain inventories remain relatively strong and rainfall has improved, rising energy and transport costs, global commodity pressures and weather uncertainty could keep food inflation elevated.

India Food Inflation Warning: Edible Oil Prices Surge, Black Sea War And El Niño Raise Household Cost Risks

#Gravitas A new report says India's 3.4-trillion-dollar household gold treasure could become a powerful engine of economic growth, and Generation Z may be the generation that unlocks it. 

How Gen Z Could Turn India into an Economic Superpower with $3.4 Trillion Gold Treasure | GRATIVAS 

Could India's next big economic breakthrough already be sitting inside millions of Indian homes? A new report suggests the country's vast household gold holdings could become a major source of economic growth if more of this wealth enters the formal financial system.&nbsp;According to the World Gold Council's Swarnim Udaan 2047 report, Indian households hold more than 31,000 tonnes of gold worth nearly $3.4 trillion. This makes it one of the world's largest privately held gold reserves. However, much of this wealth remains locked away as jewellery, family heirlooms and wedding savings instead of contributing to the wider economy.&nbsp;The report identifies Generation Z as a potential force behind a major shift in how Indians use gold. People born between 1997 and 2012 are increasingly viewing gold not just as jewellery or a traditional store of wealth, but also as a financial asset.&nbsp;This changing approach is driving interest in digital gold, gold-backed financial products and other technology-enabled investment options. These products can make gold more liquid, flexible and easier to access as an investment.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/public-nuisance-meta-hit-with-567-million-penalty-over-child-safety-in-us-1786119442313">‘Public nuisance’: Meta hit with $567 million penalty over child safety in US</a>&nbsp;The World Gold Council expects Gen Z to account for nearly $2 trillion in consumer spending by 2035. The report also says younger Indians are changing how they buy gold by combining online research with offline purchases while demanding greater transparency, better designs, personalisation and responsible sourcing.&nbsp;The report suggests that India's traditional attachment to gold, combined with Gen Z's digital-first approach to investing, could unlock a large pool of household wealth. If this shift continues, India's vast gold reserves could move from largely idle wealth to a more productive asset that supports long-term economic growth.

India's $3.4 trillion household gold wealth could become a productive economic asset as Gen Z increasingly shifts from traditional gold ownership towards digital and technology-enabled investments.

Could India's next big economic breakthrough already be sitting inside millions of Indian homes? A new report suggests the country's vast household gold holdings could become a major source of economic growth if more of this wealth enters the formal financial system. According to the World Gold Council's Swarnim Udaan 2047 report, Indian households hold more than 31,000 tonnes of gold worth nearly $3.4 trillion. This makes it one of the world's largest privately held gold reserves. However, much of this wealth remains locked away as jewellery, family heirlooms and wedding savings instead of contributing to the wider economy. The report identifies Generation Z as a potential force behind a major shift in how Indians use gold. People born between 1997 and 2012 are increasingly viewing gold not just as jewellery or a traditional store of wealth, but also as a financial asset. This changing approach is driving interest in digital gold, gold-backed financial products and other technology-enabled investment options. These products can make gold more liquid, flexible and easier to access as an investment. Also Read: ‘Public nuisance’: Meta hit with $567 million penalty over child safety in US The World Gold Council expects Gen Z to account for nearly $2 trillion in consumer spending by 2035. The report also says younger Indians are changing how they buy gold by combining online research with offline purchases while demanding greater transparency, better designs, personalisation and responsible sourcing. The report suggests that India's traditional attachment to gold, combined with Gen Z's digital-first approach to investing, could unlock a large pool of household wealth. If this shift continues, India's vast gold reserves could move from largely idle wealth to a more productive asset that supports long-term economic growth.

India's $3.4 trillion household gold wealth could become a productive economic asset as Gen Z increasingly shifts from traditional gold ownership towards digital and technology-enabled investments.

How Gen Z could turn India into economic superpower with $3.4 trillion gold treasure | Gravitas

India's free UPI payment ecosystem could soon witness its biggest policy shift since launch. The government has proposed amendments to the Payment and Settlement Systems Act that create a legal framework for introducing Merchant Discount Rate (MDR) on selected digital payment modes in the future.

While no immediate charges have been announced, reports suggest the government is considering a 0.25% to 0.4% merchant fee on UPI transactions above ₹2,000 made to businesses. Person-to-person transfers are expected to remain free, while larger merchants could bear the charges based on their annual turnover.

UPI Payments May No Longer Be Free? Government Eyes Merchant Charges

India's demand for gold has fallen by 6%, even as total spending on the precious metal reached a record high, according to the World Gold Council.

The latest figures suggest that while Indians continue to value gold for weddings, festivals, and investments, soaring prices are changing buying behavior. Consumers are increasingly opting for lighter jewellery, delaying purchases, or waiting for discounts and festive offers. Meanwhile, investment preferences are also evolving, with digital gold and other alternatives gaining traction as physical gold purchases slow.

India's Gold Demand Falls 6% Despite Record Spending | Why Indians Are Buying Less Gold

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 for the second time this year, warning that renewed fighting in West Asia has increased uncertainty over the world economy.&nbsp;In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF projected global economic growth at 3.0 per cent for 2026, down from the 3.1 per cent forecast it made in April.&nbsp;The updated forecast was prepared before the latest exchange of fire between the United States and Iran.&nbsp;This is the second time in 2026 that the IMF has lowered its global growth outlook. The Fund also expects the world economy to grow at a slower pace than in 2025. The IMF now expects global inflation to reach 4.7 per cent this year, higher than it had projected earlier.&nbsp;The IMF expects global growth to improve to 3.4 per cent in 2027.&nbsp;In April's forecast, the global fund has slashed its global GDP growth forecast to 3.1%, down from its previous 3.3% estimate.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">Updated IMF Growth Forecasts for 2026: 🇺🇸 US: 2.3% 🇩🇪 Germany: 0.7% 🇫🇷 France: 0.6% 🇬🇧 UK: 1.0% 🇨🇳 China: 4.6% 🇯🇵 Japan: 0.6% 🇮🇳 India: 6.4% 🇷🇺 Russia: 1.1% 🇧🇷 Brazil: 2.4% 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: 1.7% 🇳🇬 Nigeria: 4.1% Explore the full projections: <a href="https://t.co/EWThm8NLlj">https://t.co/EWThm8NLlj</a> <a href="https://t.co/0ypjx81oHn">pic.twitter.com/0ypjx81oHn</a>&mdash; IMF (@IMFNews) <a href="https://x.com/IMFNews/status/2074841125916135925?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 8, 2026</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.x.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

US and Israeli strikes targeting Iran since February 28 triggered retaliation from Tehran, which virtually blocked the Strait of Hormuz and pushed the Middle East into war. The disruption to traffic through the strategic waterway drove oil prices higher, adding pressure on economies around the world. Oil and gas shipments resumed after a temporary US-Iran agreement paused hostilities, but tensions have escalated after a recent exchange of fire between Washington and Tehran.&nbsp;&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/trump-says-us-may-reinstate-naval-blockade-attack-iran-s-oil-electric-and-water-infrastructure-1783522388324">Trump says US may reinstate naval blockade, attack Iran’s oil, electric and water infrastructure</a><h3>India's growth outlook revised</h3>The IMF also marginally lowered India's real GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 6.4 per cent, reducing it by 0.1 percentage point from its April estimate. It attributed the revision to a more challenging global environment shaped by geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty.&nbsp;At the same time, the Fund raised India's growth forecast for 2027 to 6.7 per cent from its earlier projection of 6.5 per cent, reflecting confidence in the country's medium-term outlook.&nbsp;The IMF said India continues to be one of the fastest-growing major economies.&nbsp;"India remains among the fastest-growing major economies, with growth projected at 6.4 per cent, supported by strong momentum in private consumption and services activity," the report said.

The IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0 per cent in its latest World Economic Outlook update, after reducing it from 3.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent in April due to the US-Iran war.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Wednesday lowered its global growth forecast for 2026 for the second time this year, warning that renewed fighting in West Asia has increased uncertainty over the world economy. In its latest World Economic Outlook update, the IMF projected global economic growth at 3.0 per cent for 2026, down from the 3.1 per cent forecast it made in April. The updated forecast was prepared before the latest exchange of fire between the United States and Iran. This is the second time in 2026 that the IMF has lowered its global growth outlook. The Fund also expects the world economy to grow at a slower pace than in 2025. The IMF now expects global inflation to reach 4.7 per cent this year, higher than it had projected earlier. The IMF expects global growth to improve to 3.4 per cent in 2027. In April's forecast, the global fund has slashed its global GDP growth forecast to 3.1%, down from its previous 3.3% estimate.

The IMF lowered its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0 per cent in its latest World Economic Outlook update, after reducing it from 3.3 per cent to 3.1 per cent in April due to the US-Iran war.

IMF cuts global growth forecast for second time in 2026 amid West Asia tensions; where does India stand?

The World Bank has upgraded Sri Lanka, Vietnam and the Philippines to the upper middle income category in its latest country income classification, recognising their economic progress after years of growth and recovery.&nbsp;Sri Lanka, which returned to the upper-middle-income group after slipping back following its economic crisis, was described by the World Bank as "a story of recovery." It said, "Just three years after a severe economic crisis brought the country to the brink of collapse in 2022, real GDP grew by 5% in 2025, driven by a rebound across industries and growth in financial and tourism services."&nbsp;"The reclassification is a marker of resilience, though the country only narrowly crossed the threshold," it added.&nbsp;Sri Lanka had first entered the upper-middle-income category in 2019 before falling back to lower-middle-income status as economic growth slowed and income levels weakened amid mounting domestic and external pressures.&nbsp;Vietnam and the Philippines were also elevated to the upper-middle-income category after years of strong economic expansion, a move that could boost investor confidence in both countries. Vietnam had been classified as a lower-middle-income country since 2009, while the Philippines had remained in that category since the late 1980s.&nbsp;According to the World Bank's latest classification, all five major Southeast Asian economies, including Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, are now ranked as upper middle income or above.<h2>Where does India stand?</h2>India continues to remain in the lower-middle-income category, where it has been since 2007.&nbsp;The World Bank estimates India's Gross National Income, or GNI, per capita at around $2,500 to $2,700, well below the upper middle income threshold of $4,496.Countries with a GNI per capita between $1,136 and $4,495 are classified as lower-middle-income economies, while those with incomes between $4,496 and $13,935 fall into the upper-middle-income category.<h2>How does the World Bank classify countries?</h2>The World Bank classifies economies into four income groups: high income, upper middle income, lower middle income and low income.&nbsp;The rankings are based on Gross National Income, or GNI, per capita estimates from the previous calendar year. This year's assessment covered 218 countries and will remain the global reference until the end of June 2027.&nbsp;GNI measures the total income earned by a country's residents and businesses regardless of where that income is generated, unlike Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, which measures the value of goods and services produced within a country's borders.

Sri Lanka was first classified as an upper-middle-income economy in 2019 before returning to the lower-middle-income category as economic growth slowed during the 2022 economic crisis.

The World Bank has upgraded Sri Lanka, Vietnam and the Philippines to the upper middle income category in its latest country income classification, recognising their economic progress after years of growth and recovery. Sri Lanka, which returned to the upper-middle-income group after slipping back following its economic crisis, was described by the World Bank as "a story of recovery." It said, "Just three years after a severe economic crisis brought the country to the brink of collapse in 2022, real GDP grew by 5% in 2025, driven by a rebound across industries and growth in financial and tourism services." "The reclassification is a marker of resilience, though the country only narrowly crossed the threshold," it added. Sri Lanka had first entered the upper-middle-income category in 2019 before falling back to lower-middle-income status as economic growth slowed and income levels weakened amid mounting domestic and external pressures. Vietnam and the Philippines were also elevated to the upper-middle-income category after years of strong economic expansion, a move that could boost investor confidence in both countries. Vietnam had been classified as a lower-middle-income country since 2009, while the Philippines had remained in that category since the late 1980s. According to the World Bank's latest classification, all five major Southeast Asian economies, including Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand, are now ranked as upper middle income or above. Where does India stand? India continues to remain in the lower-middle-income category, where it has been since 2007. The World Bank estimates India's Gross National Income, or GNI, per capita at around $2,500 to $2,700, well below the upper middle income threshold of $4,496. Countries with a GNI per capita between $1,136 and $4,495 are classified as lower-middle-income economies, while those with incomes between $4,496 and $13,935 fall into the upper-middle-income category. How does the World Bank classify countries? The World Bank classifies economies into four income groups: high income, upper middle income, lower middle income and low income. The rankings are based on Gross National Income, or GNI, per capita estimates from the previous calendar year. This year's assessment covered 218 countries and will remain the global reference until the end of June 2027. GNI measures the total income earned by a country's residents and businesses regardless of where that income is generated, unlike Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, which measures the value of goods and services produced within a country's borders.

Sri Lanka was first classified as an upper-middle-income economy in 2019 before returning to the lower-middle-income category as economic growth slowed during the 2022 economic crisis.

World Bank upgrades Sri Lanka, Vietnam to upper middle income status; where does India stand?

China's markets are struggling. India is holding firm and economists are asking whether recessions work the way they used to. Is the global economy entering a new era? WION brings you all the details on World Business Watch.

Economy at a crossroads: Markets, growth & AI bets

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday said the Indian economy and the financial system remain exposed to geopolitical tensions and related shocks, even as concerns over the West Asia conflict have eased following the signing of an interim peace deal between the United States and Iran.&nbsp;In its latest Financial Stability Report, the central bank said India's financial system has remained resilient despite risks to global financial stability arising from the conflict.&nbsp;&nbsp;However, it noted that the economy continues to face energy price shocks and supply chain disruptions because of its dependence on imported oil and other key commodities.&nbsp;"However, the Indian economy remains exposed to energy price shocks and supply-chain disruptions given its high dependence on imported oil and other key commodities," the report said.&nbsp;The RBI also warned, “Exchange rate volatility may rise if oil prices increase due to the delayed normalisation of supply chain disruptions and additional demand to replenish inventory.”&nbsp;At the same time, the central bank said the interim peace agreement could support growth by easing supply chain disruptions. “The interim peace deal has laid the foundation for the cessation of this conflict and normalisation of supply chains, which could provide tailwinds to growth,” it said.&nbsp;In the foreword to the half-yearly report, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the Indian economy has continued to show resilience despite major external shocks.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/modi-invites-iran-s-pezeshkian-for-brics-summit-in-india-1782841702464">Modi invites Iran's Pezeshkian for BRICS summit in India</a>&nbsp; “The Indian economy and the financial system have demonstrated remarkable resilience despite facing external shocks of significant magnitude. Strong growth, low inflation, healthy balance sheets of financial and nonfinancial firms, and ample buffers have helped preserve macrofinancial stability,” Malhotra said.&nbsp;Meanwhile, the Union Finance Ministry, in its Monthly Economic Review, highlighted risks from uneven monsoon rainfall, emerging El Niño conditions and geopolitical uncertainty.&nbsp;“The weak progress of the southwest monsoon has weighed on kharif sowing, and the monsoon rainfall deficit is a concern. Among the many things India needs to build buffers for in the coming years, water may be at the top of the list," the ministry said.&nbsp;The report, released by the Department of Economic Affairs, said the Indian economy continues to remain resilient overall but added that signs of moderation in industrial activity and evolving inflationary pressures require closer attention.&nbsp;“While easing oil prices and improving global supply-chain conditions may help alleviate some external pressures, uncertainties surrounding the monsoon and geopolitical developments in West Asia continue to pose downside risks to the growth and upside risks to the inflation outlook,” it said.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the Indian economy has remained resilient despite major external shocks, supported by strong growth, low inflation and healthy financial sector balance sheets.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Tuesday said the Indian economy and the financial system remain exposed to geopolitical tensions and related shocks, even as concerns over the West Asia conflict have eased following the signing of an interim peace deal between the United States and Iran. In its latest Financial Stability Report, the central bank said India's financial system has remained resilient despite risks to global financial stability arising from the conflict. However, it noted that the economy continues to face energy price shocks and supply chain disruptions because of its dependence on imported oil and other key commodities. "However, the Indian economy remains exposed to energy price shocks and supply-chain disruptions given its high dependence on imported oil and other key commodities," the report said. The RBI also warned, “Exchange rate volatility may rise if oil prices increase due to the delayed normalisation of supply chain disruptions and additional demand to replenish inventory.” At the same time, the central bank said the interim peace agreement could support growth by easing supply chain disruptions. “The interim peace deal has laid the foundation for the cessation of this conflict and normalisation of supply chains, which could provide tailwinds to growth,” it said. In the foreword to the half-yearly report, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the Indian economy has continued to show resilience despite major external shocks. Also Read: Modi invites Iran's Pezeshkian for BRICS summit in India “The Indian economy and the financial system have demonstrated remarkable resilience despite facing external shocks of significant magnitude. Strong growth, low inflation, healthy balance sheets of financial and nonfinancial firms, and ample buffers have helped preserve macrofinancial stability,” Malhotra said. Meanwhile, the Union Finance Ministry, in its Monthly Economic Review, highlighted risks from uneven monsoon rainfall, emerging El Niño conditions and geopolitical uncertainty. “The weak progress of the southwest monsoon has weighed on kharif sowing, and the monsoon rainfall deficit is a concern. Among the many things India needs to build buffers for in the coming years, water may be at the top of the list," the ministry said. The report, released by the Department of Economic Affairs, said the Indian economy continues to remain resilient overall but added that signs of moderation in industrial activity and evolving inflationary pressures require closer attention. “While easing oil prices and improving global supply-chain conditions may help alleviate some external pressures, uncertainties surrounding the monsoon and geopolitical developments in West Asia continue to pose downside risks to the growth and upside risks to the inflation outlook,” it said.

RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra said the Indian economy has remained resilient despite major external shocks, supported by strong growth, low inflation and healthy financial sector balance sheets.

Indian economy vulnerable to energy price shocks amid West Asia conflict: RBI report

As the Indian information technology sector trembles amid mounting artificial intelligence fears and a record equity sell-off in the markets, the Nifty IT index has witnessed a severe bloodbath in recent days, hitting a 30-month low on Tuesday and wiping out nearly ₹10,000 crore in foreign investment from Indian tech stocks in just the last few days. The sell-off is driven by an “AI panic trade” triggered by a research report and the launch of Anthropic’s Claude Code this week.&nbsp;A report published by Citrini Research and co-authored by Alap Shah has fuelled fresh AI concerns for the IT sector. The report, titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” maps a doomsday scenario for India’s prized sector, which has long been the preferred choice of the country’s top talent.&nbsp;It presents a fictional perspective set on June 30, 2028, looking back at how AI decimated the global services economy, especially the Indian IT industry, which relies on cheaper software solutions for customers in advanced economies such as the US.&nbsp;Citrini argues that India’s services model was built on providing developers at a fraction of Western wages. However, with the advent of “agentic AI,” the marginal cost of a coding agent has collapsed to the cost of electricity, potentially rendering Indian developers obsolete.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/god-s-own-country-to-officially-become-keralam-union-cabinet-approves-decision-to-rename-kerala-1771932449695">God’s Own Country to officially become 'Keralam': Union Cabinet approves decision to rename Kerala</a>&nbsp;The report further introduces the idea of “Ghost GDP,” contemplating a scenario where corporate profits and productivity (GDP) soar on paper but are not passed on to humans as they are replaced by AI, leading to a halt in money circulation back into the consumer economy.&nbsp;It predicts that by 2027, the $200+ billion services surplus that anchors India’s economy could “evaporate,” causing the rupee to crash by 18% and forcing India into preliminary bailout talks with the IMF.&nbsp;It also sketches a “2028 reality” in which clients at prominent companies like Infosys and Wipro begin cancelling contracts to build software internally using artificial intelligence.The IT and Business Process Management (IT-BPM) sector accounts for approximately 7.5% to 8% of India’s total GDP and contributes over 25% of the country’s total export earnings. The sector employs nearly 5.8 to 5.95 million professionals and acts as a primary source of foreign exchange, bringing in an estimated $224 billion in revenue for FY25.&nbsp;In contrast to the Citrini report, analysts from JPMorgan and HSBC argue that even if AI can write perfect code, human experts will still be needed to “plumb” it into massive corporate systems without breaking them.&nbsp;NASSCOM recently underlined that upgrading global legacy code (like COBOL) is a $1.6 trillion opportunity, and AI does not kill that work; it simply makes it faster, allowing Indian firms to handle larger volumes of projects. &nbsp;India has also begun preparing for potential strain on the outsourcing industry through Global Capability Centres (GCCs), over 50% of which are now located in the country, further strengthening its position as a global R&amp;D hub.

Citrini argues that India’s services model was built on providing developers at a fraction of Western wages. However, with the advent of “agentic AI,” the marginal cost of a coding agent has collapsed to the cost of electricity, potentially rendering Indian developers obsolete.

As the Indian information technology sector trembles amid mounting artificial intelligence fears and a record equity sell-off in the markets, the Nifty IT index has witnessed a severe bloodbath in recent days, hitting a 30-month low on Tuesday and wiping out nearly ₹10,000 crore in foreign investment from Indian tech stocks in just the last few days. The sell-off is driven by an “AI panic trade” triggered by a research report and the launch of Anthropic’s Claude Code this week. A report published by Citrini Research and co-authored by Alap Shah has fuelled fresh AI concerns for the IT sector. The report, titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” maps a doomsday scenario for India’s prized sector, which has long been the preferred choice of the country’s top talent. It presents a fictional perspective set on June 30, 2028, looking back at how AI decimated the global services economy, especially the Indian IT industry, which relies on cheaper software solutions for customers in advanced economies such as the US. Citrini argues that India’s services model was built on providing developers at a fraction of Western wages. However, with the advent of “agentic AI,” the marginal cost of a coding agent has collapsed to the cost of electricity, potentially rendering Indian developers obsolete. Also Read: God’s Own Country to officially become 'Keralam': Union Cabinet approves decision to rename Kerala The report further introduces the idea of “Ghost GDP,” contemplating a scenario where corporate profits and productivity (GDP) soar on paper but are not passed on to humans as they are replaced by AI, leading to a halt in money circulation back into the consumer economy. It predicts that by 2027, the $200+ billion services surplus that anchors India’s economy could “evaporate,” causing the rupee to crash by 18% and forcing India into preliminary bailout talks with the IMF. It also sketches a “2028 reality” in which clients at prominent companies like Infosys and Wipro begin cancelling contracts to build software internally using artificial intelligence. The IT and Business Process Management (IT-BPM) sector accounts for approximately 7.5% to 8% of India’s total GDP and contributes over 25% of the country’s total export earnings. The sector employs nearly 5.8 to 5.95 million professionals and acts as a primary source of foreign exchange, bringing in an estimated $224 billion in revenue for FY25. In contrast to the Citrini report, analysts from JPMorgan and HSBC argue that even if AI can write perfect code, human experts will still be needed to “plumb” it into massive corporate systems without breaking them. NASSCOM recently underlined that upgrading global legacy code (like COBOL) is a $1.6 trillion opportunity, and AI does not kill that work; it simply makes it faster, allowing Indian firms to handle larger volumes of projects. India has also begun preparing for potential strain on the outsourcing industry through Global Capability Centres (GCCs), over 50% of which are now located in the country, further strengthening its position as a global R&D hub.

Citrini argues that India’s services model was built on providing developers at a fraction of Western wages. However, with the advent of “agentic AI,” the marginal cost of a coding agent has collapsed to the cost of electricity, potentially rendering Indian developers obsolete.

Is Indian IT sector going to die? Viral Citrini report warns of 2028 ‘collapse’ as AI replaces labour arbitrage

RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday (Feb 6, 2026) that the apex bank will keep a distance from routine movements in the foreign exchange market and step in only if volatility turns excessive. The RBI continued the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent after it announced the monetary policy decision.&nbsp;The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which convened between February 4 and 6, unanimously decided to hold rates unchanged. Governor Malhotra reaffirmed that the Reserve Bank of India does not aim for any particular exchange rate level for the rupee. “Whether it is an up movement or down—depreciation or appreciation—we generally stay away,” he said, and added that RBI will only intervene in the event of abnormal volatility or a speculative build-up, according to Firstpost.&nbsp;The governor confirmed that there are currently no signs of speculative pressure, even though the rupee has strengthened in recent sessions. The RBI, he added, will continue to let market forces guide the movement of the currency. Following the policy announcement, the rupee traded in a narrow range. After opening near 90.23 against the US dollar, it was quoted at around 90.70 by 2 pm, compared with its previous close of 90.36.<h3>Rise of the rupee after the India-US trade agreement&nbsp;</h3>Earlier in the week, the rupee saw a sharp rise after news of a trade agreement between India and the US. However, ongoing demand for dollars from domestic importers limited the rally and kept the currency from crossing the Rs 90-per-dollar threshold.&nbsp;Vivek Iyer, Partner and Financial Services Risk Leader at Grant Thornton Bharat, stated that the policy marks a major shift in emphasis. “Taken together, the MPC announcements signal a clear pivot by the RBI from headline monetary easing to targeted regulatory and structural interventions. By holding rates steady while rolling out a wide set of non-rate measures, the RBI is reinforcing that credit transmission, consumer protection and market depth can be strengthened without immediately relying on rate cuts,” he said.&nbsp;Also read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/rbi-holds-repo-rate-at-5-25-raises-fy26-growth-forecast-to-7-4-1770366406050">RBI holds repo rate at 5.25%, raises FY26 growth forecast to 7.4%</a>

The governor confirmed that there are currently no signs of speculative pressure, even though the rupee has strengthened in recent sessions. And added that the RBI will continue to let market forces guide the movement of the currency.

RBI governor Sanjay Malhotra said on Friday (Feb 6, 2026) that the apex bank will keep a distance from routine movements in the foreign exchange market and step in only if volatility turns excessive. The RBI continued the benchmark repo rate unchanged at 5.25 per cent after it announced the monetary policy decision. The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which convened between February 4 and 6, unanimously decided to hold rates unchanged. Governor Malhotra reaffirmed that the Reserve Bank of India does not aim for any particular exchange rate level for the rupee. “Whether it is an up movement or down—depreciation or appreciation—we generally stay away,” he said, and added that RBI will only intervene in the event of abnormal volatility or a speculative build-up, according to Firstpost. The governor confirmed that there are currently no signs of speculative pressure, even though the rupee has strengthened in recent sessions. The RBI, he added, will continue to let market forces guide the movement of the currency. Following the policy announcement, the rupee traded in a narrow range. After opening near 90.23 against the US dollar, it was quoted at around 90.70 by 2 pm, compared with its previous close of 90.36. Rise of the rupee after the India-US trade agreement Earlier in the week, the rupee saw a sharp rise after news of a trade agreement between India and the US. However, ongoing demand for dollars from domestic importers limited the rally and kept the currency from crossing the Rs 90-per-dollar threshold. Vivek Iyer, Partner and Financial Services Risk Leader at Grant Thornton Bharat, stated that the policy marks a major shift in emphasis. “Taken together, the MPC announcements signal a clear pivot by the RBI from headline monetary easing to targeted regulatory and structural interventions. By holding rates steady while rolling out a wide set of non-rate measures, the RBI is reinforcing that credit transmission, consumer protection and market depth can be strengthened without immediately relying on rate cuts,” he said. Also read: RBI holds repo rate at 5.25%, raises FY26 growth forecast to 7.4%

The governor confirmed that there are currently no signs of speculative pressure, even though the rupee has strengthened in recent sessions. And added that the RBI will continue to let market forces guide the movement of the currency.

RBI to stay out of rupee moves, step in only during excessive volatility: Governor Malhotra

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday (Jan 19) upwardly revised India's economic growth projections for the current financial year (FY26) to 7.3 per cent from its earlier forecast of 6.6 per cent. The rise in growth figures is attributed to the "better-than-expected outturn in the third quarter of the year and strong momentum in the fourth quarter,” the IMF said.&nbsp;The multilateral agency estimated a sharp drop in India's GDP growth in FY 27 and FY 28 to moderate at 6.4 per cent. The country will retain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy, outperforming global and advanced economy averages.&nbsp;IMF said inflation in India is expected to go back to near target levels (2-6 per cent) after a marked decline in 2025, driven by subdued food prices.In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF also upgraded its estimates for global economic growth for calendar years 2025 and 2026 to 3.3%, from 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, in October. For 2027, it forecast 3.2% growth. However, it cautioned that over-optimism about about arteficial intellignece coupled with rising trade and geopolitical tensions can lead to a sharp market crash and disruption in the global economy.&nbsp;Also Read:<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/after-pm-modi-russia-president-vladimir-putin-invited-to-join-trump-s-gaza-board-of-peace-1768822239920"> After PM Narendra Modi, Russia President Vladimir Putin invited to join Donald Trump's Gaza 'Board of Peace'</a>&nbsp;The IMF noted that emerging market and developing economies as a group are expected to grow at 4.2 per cent in 2026, while advanced economies as a bloc are estimated to grow at 1.8 per cent. India's growth figures released at the end of November 2025 surprised experts as the GDP growth unexpectedly surged to 8.2 per cent in the July-September quarter, surpassing earlier estimates. Based on the high figures, the Reserve Bank of India revised its growth forecast for teh the current financial year to 7.3 per cent. Earlier this month, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the first advance estimate of GDP growth for 2025-26, pegging it at 7.4%. This implies a slowdown in growth to 6.9% in the second half of the year, from 8% in the first half.

The multilateral agency estimated a sharp drop in India's GDP growth in FY 27 and FY 28 to moderate at 6.4 per cent. The country will retain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy, outperforming global and advanced economy averages.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday (Jan 19) upwardly revised India's economic growth projections for the current financial year (FY26) to 7.3 per cent from its earlier forecast of 6.6 per cent. The rise in growth figures is attributed to the "better-than-expected outturn in the third quarter of the year and strong momentum in the fourth quarter,” the IMF said. The multilateral agency estimated a sharp drop in India's GDP growth in FY 27 and FY 28 to moderate at 6.4 per cent. The country will retain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy, outperforming global and advanced economy averages. IMF said inflation in India is expected to go back to near target levels (2-6 per cent) after a marked decline in 2025, driven by subdued food prices. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF also upgraded its estimates for global economic growth for calendar years 2025 and 2026 to 3.3%, from 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively, in October. For 2027, it forecast 3.2% growth. However, it cautioned that over-optimism about about arteficial intellignece coupled with rising trade and geopolitical tensions can lead to a sharp market crash and disruption in the global economy. Also Read: After PM Narendra Modi, Russia President Vladimir Putin invited to join Donald Trump's Gaza 'Board of Peace' The IMF noted that emerging market and developing economies as a group are expected to grow at 4.2 per cent in 2026, while advanced economies as a bloc are estimated to grow at 1.8 per cent. India's growth figures released at the end of November 2025 surprised experts as the GDP growth unexpectedly surged to 8.2 per cent in the July-September quarter, surpassing earlier estimates. Based on the high figures, the Reserve Bank of India revised its growth forecast for teh the current financial year to 7.3 per cent. Earlier this month, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) released the first advance estimate of GDP growth for 2025-26, pegging it at 7.4%. This implies a slowdown in growth to 6.9% in the second half of the year, from 8% in the first half.

The multilateral agency estimated a sharp drop in India's GDP growth in FY 27 and FY 28 to moderate at 6.4 per cent. The country will retain its position as the world's fastest-growing major economy, outperforming global and advanced economy averages.

IMF raises India’s growth forecast to 7.3% in current fiscal; predicts sharp drop next year

Even with external uncertainties lingering, the Indian economy is expected to record healthy growth of seven per cent in the upcoming financial year 2026-27, CareEdge Ratings has asserted. The growth momentum, according to the rating agency, will be supported by factors such as low inflation, lower interest rates, and a lower tax burden.&nbsp;"While India's merchandise exports have come under pressure amid tariff uncertainties, the healthy services exports are expected to remain supportive of the external position," it said. The Indian economy has demonstrated relative resilience in the current financial year 2025-26, with the GDP growth pegged at 7.4 per cent, as per the First Advance Estimate (FAE) by the government.&nbsp;The growth momentum has been supported by income tax cuts, GST rate rationalisation, continued momentum in services exports, easing inflationary pressures and RBI rate cuts, the rating agency added. "Overall, the domestic fundamentals remain largely resilient despite a turbulent global economic landscape," the CareEdge Ratings report read.&nbsp;For 2026-27, CareEdge projected real GDP growth at 7 per cent, with nominal GDP growth estimated at 10.1 per cent. India's macroeconomic outlook remains constructive heading into 2026-27. For 2025-26, the RBI has projected GDP growth at 7.3 per cent. Sachin Gupta, Chief Rating Officer and Executive Director, CareEdge, said, "As India steps into 2026, the macroeconomic picture appears, at first glance, remarkably encouraging."&nbsp;Gupta said inflation is largely under control, interest rates remain reasonable, and the banking sector is in its strongest shape in over a decade, supported by low non-performing assets and robust corporate credit quality. "Add to this a steadily declining fiscal deficit, a stabilising public debt profile, political continuity, and an increasing emphasis on structural reforms, and the narrative seems overwhelmingly positive," Gupta asserted. Yet beneath this optimistic surface lie emerging challenges that warrant closer attention. One concerning trend is the weakening of the Indian rupee, not only against the US dollar but also more sharply against other major currencies. Over the past year, the rupee has depreciated by over 15 per cent against the British pound and the euro. Foreign investment trends also paint a sobering picture, it added.&nbsp;According to CareEdge, foreign portfolio investors recorded net outflows of nearly USD 18 billion in 2025, while net FDI has fallen sharply over the past four years, from USD 44 billion in 2021-22 to barely USD 0.5 billion in 2024-25. These declines, however, signal more than a cyclical shift in sentiment, CareEdge added.&nbsp;India's ambition to become a "Viksit Bharat" hinges not only on strong domestic fundamentals but also on its ability to attract long-term investment and compete effectively in global markets. "While the growth story remains intact for now, the warning signs--weak capital inflows, currency pressures, and rising trade barriers--suggest that sustaining this momentum will require a careful recalibration of economic strategy."&nbsp;This year's Union Budget will be presented in the backdrop of healthy domestic growth and low inflation, even though on the external front, there continues to be a threat. Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge, suggested that the government must focus on R&amp;D and innovation, job creation, and concerted support to the agriculture sector. As has been the convention, the Union Budget for 2026-27 will be presented in the Parliament on February 1, 2026.&nbsp;Disclaimer: This story has been published from a news agency feed with minimal edits to adhere to WION's style guide. The headline may have been changed to better reflect the content of the story or to make it more suitable for the WION audience.

The rating agency said that the growth momentum has been supported by income tax cuts, GST rate rationalisation, continued momentum in services exports, easing inflationary pressures and RBI rate cuts.

Even with external uncertainties lingering, the Indian economy is expected to record healthy growth of seven per cent in the upcoming financial year 2026-27, CareEdge Ratings has asserted. The growth momentum, according to the rating agency, will be supported by factors such as low inflation, lower interest rates, and a lower tax burden. "While India's merchandise exports have come under pressure amid tariff uncertainties, the healthy services exports are expected to remain supportive of the external position," it said. The Indian economy has demonstrated relative resilience in the current financial year 2025-26, with the GDP growth pegged at 7.4 per cent, as per the First Advance Estimate (FAE) by the government. The growth momentum has been supported by income tax cuts, GST rate rationalisation, continued momentum in services exports, easing inflationary pressures and RBI rate cuts, the rating agency added. "Overall, the domestic fundamentals remain largely resilient despite a turbulent global economic landscape," the CareEdge Ratings report read. For 2026-27, CareEdge projected real GDP growth at 7 per cent, with nominal GDP growth estimated at 10.1 per cent. India's macroeconomic outlook remains constructive heading into 2026-27. For 2025-26, the RBI has projected GDP growth at 7.3 per cent. Sachin Gupta, Chief Rating Officer and Executive Director, CareEdge, said, "As India steps into 2026, the macroeconomic picture appears, at first glance, remarkably encouraging." Gupta said inflation is largely under control, interest rates remain reasonable, and the banking sector is in its strongest shape in over a decade, supported by low non-performing assets and robust corporate credit quality. "Add to this a steadily declining fiscal deficit, a stabilising public debt profile, political continuity, and an increasing emphasis on structural reforms, and the narrative seems overwhelmingly positive," Gupta asserted. Yet beneath this optimistic surface lie emerging challenges that warrant closer attention. One concerning trend is the weakening of the Indian rupee, not only against the US dollar but also more sharply against other major currencies. Over the past year, the rupee has depreciated by over 15 per cent against the British pound and the euro. Foreign investment trends also paint a sobering picture, it added. According to CareEdge, foreign portfolio investors recorded net outflows of nearly USD 18 billion in 2025, while net FDI has fallen sharply over the past four years, from USD 44 billion in 2021-22 to barely USD 0.5 billion in 2024-25. These declines, however, signal more than a cyclical shift in sentiment, CareEdge added. India's ambition to become a "Viksit Bharat" hinges not only on strong domestic fundamentals but also on its ability to attract long-term investment and compete effectively in global markets. "While the growth story remains intact for now, the warning signs--weak capital inflows, currency pressures, and rising trade barriers--suggest that sustaining this momentum will require a careful recalibration of economic strategy." This year's Union Budget will be presented in the backdrop of healthy domestic growth and low inflation, even though on the external front, there continues to be a threat. Rajani Sinha, Chief Economist, CareEdge, suggested that the government must focus on R&D and innovation, job creation, and concerted support to the agriculture sector. As has been the convention, the Union Budget for 2026-27 will be presented in the Parliament on February 1, 2026. Disclaimer: This story has been published from a news agency feed with minimal edits to adhere to WION's style guide. The headline may have been changed to better reflect the content of the story or to make it more suitable for the WION audience.

The rating agency said that the growth momentum has been supported by income tax cuts, GST rate rationalisation, continued momentum in services exports, easing inflationary pressures and RBI rate cuts.

India’s economy to remain resilient with 7% growth in FY27 amid global uncertainties: Report

India has overtaken Japan to become the fourth-largest economy globally, as confirmed by the Indian government's year-end economic review. According to the projections, India is on track to surpass Germany in the next few years and become the third-largest economy by 2028.<h2>What is India's GDP?</h2>India’s gross domestic product (GDP) has reached approximately $4.18 trillion, with forecasts suggesting it will grow to $7.3 trillion by 2030. On its current trajectory, India will only be behind the United States and China in terms of economic size. The country's GDP grew by 8.2% in the second quarter of the 2025–26 fiscal year, up from 7.8% in the previous quarter, marking the highest growth in six quarters.&nbsp;&nbsp;Additionally, India’s export sector is performing well, with merchandise exports hitting $38.13 billion in November 2025, a rise from $36.43 billion in January. This boost is driven by growth in engineering goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products. However, the official confirmation of these figures will only be available in 2026 when the final annual GDP numbers are published. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that India is likely to surpass Japan in the coming year.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/is-gold-still-the-ultimate-safe-haven-in-2026-here-s-what-banks-and-analysts-forecast-1767102492267">Is gold still the ultimate safe haven in 2026? Here’s what banks and analysts forecast</a><h2>What is driving the Indian economy?</h2>The country's growth has largely been driven by domestic demand, especially robust private consumption, despite global trade challenges and policy uncertainty. The government described the current phase as a rare "Goldilocks" moment, combining high growth with low inflation. Strong corporate finances, steady credit flow, and ongoing reforms have set India on a path to sustained growth. With ambitions to reach high middle-income status by 2047, the centenary of its independence, India is building on solid foundations for both economic expansion and social progress.<h2>What are the challenges for India's economy going forward?</h2>Despite impressive growth, India’s income gap with advanced economies remains significant. In 2024, India’s GDP per capita stood at $2,694, which is about 12 times lower than Japan’s and 20 times less than Germany’s. As India’s population grew to 1.4 billion, it overtook China as the most populous nation in 2023. A major challenge lies ahead in creating enough well-paid jobs for millions of young graduates. However, the report remains optimistic, noting that India's demographic advantage, its young population, could fuel future growth if quality employment opportunities can be created.&nbsp;This year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi introduced large-scale consumption tax cuts and labor law reforms to boost the economy, following a slowdown to a four-year low. However, the rupee faced challenges, hitting an all-time low against the dollar in December 2025, partly due to concerns about trade relations with the U.S. and the effects of higher tariffs on Indian goods. India surpassed the UK to become the world's fifth-largest economy in 2022, and now, with its rapidly expanding economy, it’s set to move into third place soon.

India surpasses Japan to become world's fourth-largest economy, poised to overtake Germany soon: Report

India has overtaken Japan to become the fourth-largest economy globally, as confirmed by the Indian government's year-end economic review. According to the projections, India is on track to surpass Germany in the next few years and become the third-largest economy by 2028. What is India's GDP? India’s gross domestic product (GDP) has reached approximately $4.18 trillion, with forecasts suggesting it will grow to $7.3 trillion by 2030. On its current trajectory, India will only be behind the United States and China in terms of economic size. The country's GDP grew by 8.2% in the second quarter of the 2025–26 fiscal year, up from 7.8% in the previous quarter, marking the highest growth in six quarters. Additionally, India’s export sector is performing well, with merchandise exports hitting $38.13 billion in November 2025, a rise from $36.43 billion in January. This boost is driven by growth in engineering goods, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and petroleum products. However, the official confirmation of these figures will only be available in 2026 when the final annual GDP numbers are published. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has indicated that India is likely to surpass Japan in the coming year. Also Read: Is gold still the ultimate safe haven in 2026? Here’s what banks and analysts forecast What is driving the Indian economy? The country's growth has largely been driven by domestic demand, especially robust private consumption, despite global trade challenges and policy uncertainty. The government described the current phase as a rare "Goldilocks" moment, combining high growth with low inflation. Strong corporate finances, steady credit flow, and ongoing reforms have set India on a path to sustained growth. With ambitions to reach high middle-income status by 2047, the centenary of its independence, India is building on solid foundations for both economic expansion and social progress. What are the challenges for India's economy going forward? Despite impressive growth, India’s income gap with advanced economies remains significant. In 2024, India’s GDP per capita stood at $2,694, which is about 12 times lower than Japan’s and 20 times less than Germany’s. As India’s population grew to 1.4 billion, it overtook China as the most populous nation in 2023. A major challenge lies ahead in creating enough well-paid jobs for millions of young graduates. However, the report remains optimistic, noting that India's demographic advantage, its young population, could fuel future growth if quality employment opportunities can be created. This year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi introduced large-scale consumption tax cuts and labor law reforms to boost the economy, following a slowdown to a four-year low. However, the rupee faced challenges, hitting an all-time low against the dollar in December 2025, partly due to concerns about trade relations with the U.S. and the effects of higher tariffs on Indian goods. India surpassed the UK to become the world's fifth-largest economy in 2022, and now, with its rapidly expanding economy, it’s set to move into third place soon.

India’s GDP has reached $4.18 trillion, overtaking Japan as the fourth-largest economy. It’s on track to surpass Germany by 2028 with rapid growth and reforms

India continues to witness some of the most severe wealth inequality globally, with the richest 10 per cent controlling nearly 65 per cent of total wealth, while the bottom 50 per cent owns just 6.4 per cent, as per the latest World Inequality Report released on Wednesday.&nbsp;The report, compiled by economists Lucas Chancel, Ricardo Gómez-Carrera, Rowaida Moshrif, and Thomas Piketty, highlights that the top 1 per cent of Indians alone possess around 40 per cent of India's wealth. When it comes to income distribution, the report states that the top 10 per cent account for 58 per cent of the country’s total income.<h3>India is one of the fastest-growing major economies</h3>Meanwhile, US Representative Bill Huizenga underscored the expansion of economic and strategic dimensions of the India-US partnership. He also emphasised the need for deeper cooperation to uphold stability in the Indo-Pacific and the growing interest of American businesses, according to a report in ANI.&nbsp;Bill's remark came while he was at the House Foreign Affairs South and Central Asia Subcommittee's hearing, 'The US-India Strategic Partnership: Securing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific'. Huizenga highlighted India's rapid economic growth as a key player in commercial engagement. "India is one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world... American companies are eager to enter the Indian market on a level playing field," he added.&nbsp;He further added that "a new trade deal with India under President Trump and Prime Minister Modi would further realise this goal and enhance the relationship," and noted that economic engagement will be central to strengthening bilateral ties.&nbsp;He also underscored the broader strategic significance of US–India cooperation, highlighting the weight of their collective economic and geopolitical power. "I look forward to hearing from our witnesses on how the world's largest economy and the soon-to-be third-largest economy can work together to counterbalance China and preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific," he said.

The report highlights that the top 1 per cent of Indians alone possess around 40 per cent of India's wealth. When it comes to income distribution, the report states that the top 10 per cent account for 58 per cent of the country’s total income.

India continues to witness some of the most severe wealth inequality globally, with the richest 10 per cent controlling nearly 65 per cent of total wealth, while the bottom 50 per cent owns just 6.4 per cent, as per the latest World Inequality Report released on Wednesday. The report, compiled by economists Lucas Chancel, Ricardo Gómez-Carrera, Rowaida Moshrif, and Thomas Piketty, highlights that the top 1 per cent of Indians alone possess around 40 per cent of India's wealth. When it comes to income distribution, the report states that the top 10 per cent account for 58 per cent of the country’s total income. India is one of the fastest-growing major economies Meanwhile, US Representative Bill Huizenga underscored the expansion of economic and strategic dimensions of the India-US partnership. He also emphasised the need for deeper cooperation to uphold stability in the Indo-Pacific and the growing interest of American businesses, according to a report in ANI. Bill's remark came while he was at the House Foreign Affairs South and Central Asia Subcommittee's hearing, 'The US-India Strategic Partnership: Securing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific'. Huizenga highlighted India's rapid economic growth as a key player in commercial engagement. "India is one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world... American companies are eager to enter the Indian market on a level playing field," he added. He further added that "a new trade deal with India under President Trump and Prime Minister Modi would further realise this goal and enhance the relationship," and noted that economic engagement will be central to strengthening bilateral ties. He also underscored the broader strategic significance of US–India cooperation, highlighting the weight of their collective economic and geopolitical power. "I look forward to hearing from our witnesses on how the world's largest economy and the soon-to-be third-largest economy can work together to counterbalance China and preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific," he said.

The report highlights that the top 1 per cent of Indians alone possess around 40 per cent of India's wealth. When it comes to income distribution, the report states that the top 10 per cent account for 58 per cent of the country’s total income.

Who really owns two-thirds of India's wealth? New report reveals shocking facts

Backed by robust second-quarter growth numbers, Chief Economic Advisor V Ananth Nageswaran on Friday (Nov 28) said that the Indian economy is set to cross the $4 trillion mark in the current financial year, with the economy poised to grow over 7 per cent in the financial year 2025-26. CEA Nageswaran also underlined that the Indian economy does stand out as a "relative oasis of tranquillity, stability and growth" amid the current uncertain global environment.&nbsp;Briefing the media after the release of Q2 GDP data, Nageswaran said the economy's current trajectory paves the path to surpass $4 trillion mark. India's GDP stood at $3.9 trillion at the end of March 2025, making it the world’s fifth-largest economy.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/india-s-q2-gdp-grows-at-8-2-highest-in-six-quarters-despite-trump-tariffs-1764333228141">India’s Q2 GDP grows at 8.2%, highest in six quarters, despite Trump tariffs</a>&nbsp;His comments came at a time when the economy maintained strong momentum in the July–September quarter, posting GDP growth of 8.2 per cent, well above the 5.6 per cent recorded in the same period last year and faster than the 7.8 per cent achieved in the first quarter of the current fiscal.&nbsp;India posted a strong Q2 growth number supported by an expansion in manufacturing activity at 9.1 per cent, construction surged 7.2 per cent, while services reported a two-digit growth. The GST cuts announced near Diwali aided factory output.&nbsp;Referring to Q2 figures, Nageswaran said, "outside the range of most of the optimistic estimates" of many.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/india-outperforms-us-china-and-russia-in-post-covid-era-harvard-economist-reveals-1764000747889">India outperforms US, China and Russia in post-Covid era, Harvard economist reveals</a>&nbsp;The CEA also noted that India’s macro fundamentals remain robust "The economic robustness is due to continued trust in public investment, deregulation in the union and state governments, employment-linked incentive schemes that have been announced, and continued credit support to micro, small and medium enterprises and also nano-enterprises through various schemes," Nageswaran added.&nbsp;According to the Economic Survey 2024–25, presented on January 31, India must maintain an average growth rate of about 8 per cent at constant prices for the next 10–20 years to achieve the ‘Viksit Bharat’ vision of becoming a developed nation by 2047.

Nageswaran said the economy's current trajectory paves the path to surpass $4 trillion mark. India's GDP stood at $3.9 trillion at the end of March 2025, making it the world’s fifth-largest economy.

Backed by robust second-quarter growth numbers, Chief Economic Advisor V Ananth Nageswaran on Friday (Nov 28) said that the Indian economy is set to cross the $4 trillion mark in the current financial year, with the economy poised to grow over 7 per cent in the financial year 2025-26. CEA Nageswaran also underlined that the Indian economy does stand out as a "relative oasis of tranquillity, stability and growth" amid the current uncertain global environment. Briefing the media after the release of Q2 GDP data, Nageswaran said the economy's current trajectory paves the path to surpass $4 trillion mark. India's GDP stood at $3.9 trillion at the end of March 2025, making it the world’s fifth-largest economy. Also Read: India’s Q2 GDP grows at 8.2%, highest in six quarters, despite Trump tariffs His comments came at a time when the economy maintained strong momentum in the July–September quarter, posting GDP growth of 8.2 per cent, well above the 5.6 per cent recorded in the same period last year and faster than the 7.8 per cent achieved in the first quarter of the current fiscal. India posted a strong Q2 growth number supported by an expansion in manufacturing activity at 9.1 per cent, construction surged 7.2 per cent, while services reported a two-digit growth. The GST cuts announced near Diwali aided factory output. Referring to Q2 figures, Nageswaran said, "outside the range of most of the optimistic estimates" of many. Also Read: India outperforms US, China and Russia in post-Covid era, Harvard economist reveals The CEA also noted that India’s macro fundamentals remain robust "The economic robustness is due to continued trust in public investment, deregulation in the union and state governments, employment-linked incentive schemes that have been announced, and continued credit support to micro, small and medium enterprises and also nano-enterprises through various schemes," Nageswaran added. According to the Economic Survey 2024–25, presented on January 31, India must maintain an average growth rate of about 8 per cent at constant prices for the next 10–20 years to achieve the ‘Viksit Bharat’ vision of becoming a developed nation by 2047.

Nageswaran said the economy's current trajectory paves the path to surpass $4 trillion mark. India's GDP stood at $3.9 trillion at the end of March 2025, making it the world’s fifth-largest economy.

Indian economy to cross $4 trillion mark this fiscal; GDP growth may exceed 7%: CEA Nageswaran

The Indian economy has demonstrated unparalleled resilience, with sharp recovery and sustained growth following the COVID-19 pandemic, which shook the global markets. India retained the title of the fastest-growing major economy after the pandemic, leaving behind Advanced economies like the United States, Britain and Asian giants like China and Russia to do a lot of catching up, charts and data shared by Harvard Economist Jason Furman showed.&nbsp;The chart illustrates that while major world economies are still struggling with pandemic aftershocks, India staged a sharp recovery, maintaining momentum in its market.&nbsp;Furman, in his social media post on X, shared the comparative growth chart of Real GDP relative to the Trend of Major markets, including the United States, China, the eurozone, Russia and India.

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">How some geopolitically relevant economies are doing relative to their pre-COVID trends. <a href="https://t.co/y7059jdIei">pic.twitter.com/y7059jdIei</a>&mdash; Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) <a href="https://twitter.com/jasonfurman/status/1991910239679987830?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 21, 2025</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The data shows India's steady rise, reaching an estimated GDP growth of +5 per cent mid 2025, making it the only major economy continuing upward trends. The chart further shows that India started its post-pandemic recovery from a low point in 2025, crossed its pre-pandemic trendline by 2022. By 2024, its growth climbed to + 3 per cent, with estimates predicting +5 per cent by the third quarter of 2025.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/-it-is-the-only-way-elon-musk-endorses-world-s-coolest-dictator-bukele-s-brutal-crackdown-on-gangs-1763992801183">‘It is the only way,’ Elon Musk endorses ‘world’s coolest dictator’ Bukele’s brutal crackdown on gangs</a>&nbsp;Furman stressed that New Delhi's growth is not a one-time phenomenon, but it's a reflection of its structural strength. He attributed digital infrastructure, investment reforms and a stable macroeconomic environment as the main pillars pushing domestic consumption and investment. Providing India with resilience to keep its growth amid a turbulent global economic environment.<h2>Major global economies continue to struggle</h2>The post-pandemic scenario is a different story; the US was able to reach a growth rate of around 2 per cent, China is still facing issues resulting from its Zero Covid policy and real estate crisis, with its growth forecasted at 4.8 per cent for 2025, and India, on the other hand, surpassed both the markets with a rapid growth.&nbsp;Also Read: <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/trump-says-tariff-payoff-is-coming-soon-promises-record-money-for-the-us-1763972217336">Trump promises Americans 'RECORD SETTING' tariff payoff coming soon, predicts unprecedented amount money for the US</a>&nbsp;Global rating agencies continue to remain confident in India's growth momentum. The Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency (ICRA) estimates India’s GDP growth to touch 7% per cent in the second quarter of FY 2026, following a 7.8% expansion in the first quarter.&nbsp;GVA projects 7.1%, while Moody’s predicts 7% GDP growth for 2025 and 6.4% for 2026.

Global rating agencies continue to remain confident in India’s growth momentum, while major economies reel under weak post-pandemic recoveries.

The Indian economy has demonstrated unparalleled resilience, with sharp recovery and sustained growth following the COVID-19 pandemic, which shook the global markets. India retained the title of the fastest-growing major economy after the pandemic, leaving behind Advanced economies like the United States, Britain and Asian giants like China and Russia to do a lot of catching up, charts and data shared by Harvard Economist Jason Furman showed. The chart illustrates that while major world economies are still struggling with pandemic aftershocks, India staged a sharp recovery, maintaining momentum in its market. Furman, in his social media post on X, shared the comparative growth chart of Real GDP relative to the Trend of Major markets, including the United States, China, the eurozone, Russia and India.

Global rating agencies continue to remain confident in India’s growth momentum, while major economies reel under weak post-pandemic recoveries.

India outperforms US, China and Russia in post-Covid era, Harvard economist reveals

The Indian economy gained momentum in the second quarter of this financial year despite the United States' tariffs against New Delhi, said the finance ministry's&nbsp;Department of Economic Affairs (DEA). A report by the department said that India's economy strengthened in the second quarter of the financial year 2026 despite a&nbsp;global backdrop characterised by economic and trade policy uncertainty.&nbsp;The report added that the acceleration&nbsp;despite external headwinds highlights that the domestic economy is resilient. It also shows that the ongoing structural reforms are effective.&nbsp;The report said that&nbsp;various supply-side high-frequency indicators (HFIs) displayed healthy trends, while demand conditions improved on the back of GST reforms and positive festive season sentiments, which spurred consumption.&nbsp;<h2>What the report said about the Indian economy</h2>It added that on the back of factors&nbsp;like&nbsp;robust domestic demand, favourable monsoon conditions, lower inflation, monetary easing, and the continued benefits of GST reforms, the growth outlook for the remaining quarters remains strong.&nbsp;It also highlighted the growth forecasts by the&nbsp;International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) -- 6.5 per cent and 6.8 per cent, respectively.&nbsp;The report said India's trade performance was robust because&nbsp;strong services exports offset the merchandise trade deficit.&nbsp;The report highlighted that an increase in gross FDI inflows was witnessed, which shows that India is an attractive investment destination.&nbsp;The report noted that the lower GST rate is expected to support a positive demand outlook by reducing the tax burden on consumers and businesses.&nbsp;The department warned that&nbsp;global uncertainties could still affect external demand and pose downside risks to growth.&nbsp;To counter these challenges, the implementation of growth-enhancing structural reforms and government initiatives, including GST 2.0, is expected to mitigate the negative effects of global headwinds, it added.

The Indian economy gained momentum in the second quarter of this financial year despite the United States' tariffs against New Delhi, said the finance ministry's Department of Economic Affairs (DEA).

The Indian economy gained momentum in the second quarter of this financial year despite the United States' tariffs against New Delhi, said the finance ministry's Department of Economic Affairs (DEA). A report by the department said that India's economy strengthened in the second quarter of the financial year 2026 despite a global backdrop characterised by economic and trade policy uncertainty. The report added that the acceleration despite external headwinds highlights that the domestic economy is resilient. It also shows that the ongoing structural reforms are effective. The report said that various supply-side high-frequency indicators (HFIs) displayed healthy trends, while demand conditions improved on the back of GST reforms and positive festive season sentiments, which spurred consumption. What the report said about the Indian economy It added that on the back of factors like robust domestic demand, favourable monsoon conditions, lower inflation, monetary easing, and the continued benefits of GST reforms, the growth outlook for the remaining quarters remains strong. It also highlighted the growth forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) -- 6.5 per cent and 6.8 per cent, respectively. The report said India's trade performance was robust because strong services exports offset the merchandise trade deficit. The report highlighted that an increase in gross FDI inflows was witnessed, which shows that India is an attractive investment destination. The report noted that the lower GST rate is expected to support a positive demand outlook by reducing the tax burden on consumers and businesses. The department warned that global uncertainties could still affect external demand and pose downside risks to growth. To counter these challenges, the implementation of growth-enhancing structural reforms and government initiatives, including GST 2.0, is expected to mitigate the negative effects of global headwinds, it added.

Indian economy news: The report added that the acceleration&nbsp;despite external headwinds highlights that the domestic economy is resilient.

Indian economy gained momentum despite US tariffs: Govt report

The World Bank's latest South Asia Development Update has said that India will remain the world's fastest-growing major economy. The financial institution said that the growth will be driven by strong consumption, improved farm output, and rising rural wages. The report, however, said that South Asia's growth will remain at 6.6 per cent this year, but will slow down in 2026 to 5.8 per cent.<h2>What did the World Bank report say?</h2>The World Bank said that India's economic outlook is strong. It said Bangladesh is set to accelerate, while Sri Lanka is recovering faster than expected.&nbsp;The World Bank further said that the region continues to lead global growth. However, the risk could affect its momentum. He said factors like global economic uncertainty, trade policy shifts, socio-political tensions, and disruptions in labour markets due to emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) can affect the region's growth.&nbsp;"South Asia has enormous economic potential and is still the fastest-growing region in the world. But countries need to proactively address risks to growth," said Johannes Zutt, World Bank Vice President for South Asia.&nbsp;He said the governments of the nations of South Asia can strengthen productivity and create jobs by maximising the benefits of artificial intelligence and easing trade barriers.&nbsp;The report claimed that high tariffs protect shrinking sectors while hurting manufacturing.&nbsp;The World Bank report further said that the economies need to be ready for the rapid transformation brought on by artificial intelligence.&nbsp;It said that educated young workers in sectors such as information technology and business services are vulnerable to job shifts. However, South Asia's workforce has limited exposure to the new technology.&nbsp;"Increasing trade openness and growing adoption of AI could be transformative for South Asia," said Franziska Ohnsorge, World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia.

The World Bank's latest South Asia Development Update has said that India will remain the world's fastest-growing major economy. 

The World Bank's latest South Asia Development Update has said that India will remain the world's fastest-growing major economy. The financial institution said that the growth will be driven by strong consumption, improved farm output, and rising rural wages. The report, however, said that South Asia's growth will remain at 6.6 per cent this year, but will slow down in 2026 to 5.8 per cent. What did the World Bank report say? The World Bank said that India's economic outlook is strong. It said Bangladesh is set to accelerate, while Sri Lanka is recovering faster than expected. The World Bank further said that the region continues to lead global growth. However, the risk could affect its momentum. He said factors like global economic uncertainty, trade policy shifts, socio-political tensions, and disruptions in labour markets due to emerging technologies like artificial intelligence (AI) can affect the region's growth. "South Asia has enormous economic potential and is still the fastest-growing region in the world. But countries need to proactively address risks to growth," said Johannes Zutt, World Bank Vice President for South Asia. He said the governments of the nations of South Asia can strengthen productivity and create jobs by maximising the benefits of artificial intelligence and easing trade barriers. The report claimed that high tariffs protect shrinking sectors while hurting manufacturing. The World Bank report further said that the economies need to be ready for the rapid transformation brought on by artificial intelligence. It said that educated young workers in sectors such as information technology and business services are vulnerable to job shifts. However, South Asia's workforce has limited exposure to the new technology. "Increasing trade openness and growing adoption of AI could be transformative for South Asia," said Franziska Ohnsorge, World Bank Chief Economist for South Asia.

The World Bank said that India's economic outlook is strong. It said Bangladesh is set to accelerate, while Sri Lanka is recovering faster than expected.

India expected to remain world's fastest-growing major economy: World Bank

The central government has launched an investigation into allegations that e-commerce platforms have been charging their customers extra for making payments through the cash-on-delivery option. The action was taken after the government received complaints that the alleged extra charges misled buyers and violated consumer rights.<h2>Here's what happened</h2>On Friday, Pralhad Joshi, the consumer affairs minister, wrote on X that the Department of Consumer Affairs has initiated an investigation. He called such charges a "dark pattern".&nbsp;He wrote on X that strict action will be taken against those engaged in such activities. He shared a screenshot of a user's order who was charged an "offer handling fee" of Rs 99, a "payment handling fee" of Rs 49, and a "protect promise fee" of Rs 79.&nbsp;"The Department of Consumer Affairs has received complaints against e-commerce platforms charging extra for Cash-on-Delivery, a practice classified as a dark pattern that misleads and exploits consumers. A detailed investigation has been initiated and steps are being taken to scrutinize these platforms closely. Strict action will be taken against those violating consumer rights to ensure transparency and uphold fair practices in India’s growing e-commerce sector," he said in the post.<h2>What are dark patterns?</h2>Dark patterns are deceptive tactics used by e-commerce, food delivery, and quick commerce platforms to trick users into buying their goods and services. Employing these tactics, some of these players even make it difficult for users to unsubscribe from memberships.&nbsp;Ahead of the festive season, when people tend to make more discretionary spending, many of these platforms raised platform fees.&nbsp;In June, the Central Consumer Protection Authority had ordered e-commerce platforms to eliminate dark patterns within three months after carrying out self-imposed audits.&nbsp;The government has been taking several steps to boost domestic consumption. Last month, it eliminated the 12 per cent and 28 per cent GST slabs and moved these items to lower tax slabs.&nbsp;The government has asked companies to pass on the benefits of the GST cuts. It is monitoring whether these companies have passed on GST benefits or not.

The central government has launched an investigation into allegations that e-commerce platforms have been charging their customers extra for making payments through the cash-on-delivery option. The action was taken after the government received complaints that the alleged extra charges misled buyers and violated consumer rights. Here's what happened On Friday, Pralhad Joshi, the consumer affairs minister, wrote on X that the Department of Consumer Affairs has initiated an investigation. He called such charges a "dark pattern". He wrote on X that strict action will be taken against those engaged in such activities. He shared a screenshot of a user's order who was charged an "offer handling fee" of Rs 99, a "payment handling fee" of Rs 49, and a "protect promise fee" of Rs 79. "The Department of Consumer Affairs has received complaints against e-commerce platforms charging extra for Cash-on-Delivery, a practice classified as a dark pattern that misleads and exploits consumers. A detailed investigation has been initiated and steps are being taken to scrutinize these platforms closely. Strict action will be taken against those violating consumer rights to ensure transparency and uphold fair practices in India’s growing e-commerce sector," he said in the post. What are dark patterns? Dark patterns are deceptive tactics used by e-commerce, food delivery, and quick commerce platforms to trick users into buying their goods and services. Employing these tactics, some of these players even make it difficult for users to unsubscribe from memberships. Ahead of the festive season, when people tend to make more discretionary spending, many of these platforms raised platform fees. In June, the Central Consumer Protection Authority had ordered e-commerce platforms to eliminate dark patterns within three months after carrying out self-imposed audits. The government has been taking several steps to boost domestic consumption. Last month, it eliminated the 12 per cent and 28 per cent GST slabs and moved these items to lower tax slabs. The government has asked companies to pass on the benefits of the GST cuts. It is monitoring whether these companies have passed on GST benefits or not.

Cash-on-delivery row: In June, the Central Consumer Protection Authority had ordered e-commerce platforms to eliminate dark patterns within three months after carrying out self-imposed audits.&nbsp;

'Offer handling fee': Why is government probing e-commerce platforms' cash-on-delivery?

Raise Financial, the parent company of stock-trading startup Dhan, has received funding of $120 million (Rs 1,000 crore), which raised the value of the firm to $1.2 billion (Rs 10,000 crore). This means the trading firm has become a unicorn. Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Beenext, Ramesh Damani, DSP Family Office, JM Financial Family Office, and Aashish Somaiyaa, CEO of White Oak Capital, participated&nbsp;in this round. The funding round was led by Mumbai-based hedge fund Hornbill Capital.<h2>All you need to know about Dhan</h2>Dhan raised funding of $22 million in 2022 from Mirae Asset Venture Investments and 3one4 Capital. The funding round increased the company's transactions to around $150 million.&nbsp;In the financial year 2024, the company earned a net profit of Rs 155 crore.&nbsp;The firm reportedly&nbsp;had investment offers of around $1 billion. However, it instead opted for a smaller offer.&nbsp;The company's rivals are also trying to raise money. ET reported that Groww plans to raise between Rs 6,000 crore and Rs 7,000 crore through its public listing later this year, eyeing a $7-9 billion valuation.&nbsp;Traders using Dhan increased to 2.13 per cent in August, marginally up from 2 per cent in June.&nbsp;Dhan was founded in 2021 by Alok Pandey, Jay Gupta, and Raunak Rathi.&nbsp;The company is planning to bring a DEXT T3 for power traders.&nbsp;Dhan’s trading volumes quadrupled between FY23 and FY25.&nbsp;The platform had 987,273 active users in August 2025. The firm's user base was 995,498 in June.&nbsp;Groww, on the other hand, reported about 12 million active users in August.

Raise Financial, the parent company of stock-trading startup Dhan, has received funding of $120 million (Rs 1,000 crore), which raised the value of the firm to $1.2 billion (Rs 10,000 crore).

Raise Financial, the parent company of stock-trading startup Dhan, has received funding of $120 million (Rs 1,000 crore), which raised the value of the firm to $1.2 billion (Rs 10,000 crore). This means the trading firm has become a unicorn. Japan’s Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (MUFG), Beenext, Ramesh Damani, DSP Family Office, JM Financial Family Office, and Aashish Somaiyaa, CEO of White Oak Capital, participated in this round. The funding round was led by Mumbai-based hedge fund Hornbill Capital. All you need to know about Dhan Dhan raised funding of $22 million in 2022 from Mirae Asset Venture Investments and 3one4 Capital. The funding round increased the company's transactions to around $150 million. In the financial year 2024, the company earned a net profit of Rs 155 crore. The firm reportedly had investment offers of around $1 billion. However, it instead opted for a smaller offer. The company's rivals are also trying to raise money. ET reported that Groww plans to raise between Rs 6,000 crore and Rs 7,000 crore through its public listing later this year, eyeing a $7-9 billion valuation. Traders using Dhan increased to 2.13 per cent in August, marginally up from 2 per cent in June. Dhan was founded in 2021 by Alok Pandey, Jay Gupta, and Raunak Rathi. The company is planning to bring a DEXT T3 for power traders. Dhan’s trading volumes quadrupled between FY23 and FY25. The platform had 987,273 active users in August 2025. The firm's user base was 995,498 in June. Groww, on the other hand, reported about 12 million active users in August.

Dhan's latest funding round: Dhan raised funding of $22 million in 2022 from Mirae Asset Venture Investments and 3one4 Capital.

Trading platform Dhan becomes India's latest unicorn | Check details

In her inaugural address at the Kautilya Economic Conclave, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Friday that India plays the role of a stabilizing force in the global economy. She also cautioned the masses against the risks of imbalances and volatility.&nbsp;Nirmala Sitharaman noted that the foundations of the global order are undergoing a structural transformation. She said geopolitical shifts are reshaping trade flows, alliances, and financial systems. She called the present era "turbulent".&nbsp;"The international order is morphing. Trade flows are being reshaped, alliances are being tested, investments are being rerouted along geopolitical lines, and shared commitments are being re-examined," Nirmala Sitharaman said.&nbsp;She stated that the global dominance of one power has given way to contestation and that Asian nations have been asserting alternative models of growth and governance.&nbsp;"What we face is not a temporary disruption but a structural transformation. The question is: What lies on the other side of this transformation? What will the new equilibrium look like? Who will shape it, and on what terms?" the minister said.&nbsp;She said India's growth is anchored in domestic factors, which help the country minimise external shocks.&nbsp;She said that India must strive to figure out how it can “build a global order where trade is fair, finance serves productive ends, energy is both affordable and sustainable, and climate action aligns with development imperatives.”&nbsp;She said that India's capacity to absorb shocks is strong, and the nation's economic leverage is evolving.&nbsp;"Our choices will determine whether resilience becomes a foundation for leadership or merely a buffer against uncertainty," she added.&nbsp;She also called on developing nations to actively participate in shaping global outcomes.&nbsp;"We cannot afford to be passive spectators in a world where decisions elsewhere determine our destinies. We must be active participants, shaping outcomes where possible and preserving autonomy where necessary," the minister noted.

In her inaugural address at the Kautilya Economic Conclave, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Friday that India plays the role of a stabilizing force in the global economy. 

In her inaugural address at the Kautilya Economic Conclave, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said on Friday that India plays the role of a stabilizing force in the global economy. She also cautioned the masses against the risks of imbalances and volatility. Nirmala Sitharaman noted that the foundations of the global order are undergoing a structural transformation. She said geopolitical shifts are reshaping trade flows, alliances, and financial systems. She called the present era "turbulent". "The international order is morphing. Trade flows are being reshaped, alliances are being tested, investments are being rerouted along geopolitical lines, and shared commitments are being re-examined," Nirmala Sitharaman said. She stated that the global dominance of one power has given way to contestation and that Asian nations have been asserting alternative models of growth and governance. "What we face is not a temporary disruption but a structural transformation. The question is: What lies on the other side of this transformation? What will the new equilibrium look like? Who will shape it, and on what terms?" the minister said. She said India's growth is anchored in domestic factors, which help the country minimise external shocks. She said that India must strive to figure out how it can “build a global order where trade is fair, finance serves productive ends, energy is both affordable and sustainable, and climate action aligns with development imperatives.” She said that India's capacity to absorb shocks is strong, and the nation's economic leverage is evolving. "Our choices will determine whether resilience becomes a foundation for leadership or merely a buffer against uncertainty," she added. She also called on developing nations to actively participate in shaping global outcomes. "We cannot afford to be passive spectators in a world where decisions elsewhere determine our destinies. We must be active participants, shaping outcomes where possible and preserving autonomy where necessary," the minister noted.

Nirmala Sitharaman noted that the foundations of the global order are undergoing a structural transformation.&nbsp;

'Build a global order where trade is fair': Nirmala Sitharaman lauds India's resilience

New Delhi: While global economic shocks have slowed India's growth in the short term, its long-term growth story remains intact, noted a report by S&amp;P Global India Research.&nbsp;The report said India has strengthened its position through reforms, infrastructure development, and improvements in processes, which have widened India's growth advantage compared to developed nations.&nbsp;The report explained that India's outlook is being shaped by both domestic strengths and global challenges. "Amid global market volatility, India's growth is resilient and remains the world's fastest-growing major economy, with its GDP forecast to continue growing 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2025-26," the report highlighted.&nbsp;The report also said that, "India is likely to encourage more participation in global trade, which offers increasing gains in economic growth, capital attraction, and generates employment opportunities."&nbsp;&nbsp;However, reforms are needed across central, state, and bureaucratic levels to build a more aligned system.&nbsp;The findings noted that India's private credit industry is set for strong expansion because traditional banks have left a financing gap. Domestic insolvency frameworks are also helping strengthen the sector. Even though risks exist, the limited linkages between private credit and the broader financial system are expected to provide some protection.&nbsp;It added that India can raise its share in the global shipbuilding market over the next decade. However, reaching the target of being among the top five shipbuilding nations by 2047 will be challenging, as India holds less than one per cent share now.&nbsp;Atul Arya, Executive Sponsor of the India Research Chapter and Chief Energy Strategist at S&amp;P Global Commodity Insights, said, “Frameworks that accelerate infrastructure development, promote inclusive reforms, foster private investments, diversify trade, and build resilient supply chains can help India seize opportunities. This edition of India Forward shines light on multidimensional and multi-stakeholder approaches that will strengthen India's growing claim as a global economic and geopolitical powerhouse, even as the horizons continue to shift.”&nbsp;The report highlighted that India is expected to become the second-largest market for datacenter electricity demand in the Asia-Pacific region by 2028, overtaking Japan and Australia.&nbsp;India's digital landscape is undergoing an unprecedented transformation, which is driving significant investments in digital infrastructure, such as data centers, and supporting the expanding digital economy.&nbsp;&nbsp;"India is expected to become the second-largest market for datacenters' electricity demand in the Asia-Pacific region over the next two years, surpassing Japan and Australia," the report said.&nbsp;On the energy front, the report said that "India aims to localize its nuclear value chain and use its vast thorium reserves to enhance domestic capacity building and technology transfer." Reforms in the sector are expected around 2026-27 to make the rules more transparent and attract investment.&nbsp;It also said that India's electric vehicle push is gathering pace, supported by government initiatives in manufacturing and charging networks. While EV adoption is growing, biofuels and green hydrogen are also becoming important, especially for heavy transport.

While global economic shocks have slowed India's growth in the short term, its long-term growth story remains intact, noted a report by S&P Global India Research.

New Delhi: While global economic shocks have slowed India's growth in the short term, its long-term growth story remains intact, noted a report by S&P Global India Research. The report said India has strengthened its position through reforms, infrastructure development, and improvements in processes, which have widened India's growth advantage compared to developed nations. The report explained that India's outlook is being shaped by both domestic strengths and global challenges. "Amid global market volatility, India's growth is resilient and remains the world's fastest-growing major economy, with its GDP forecast to continue growing 6.5 per cent in fiscal 2025-26," the report highlighted. The report also said that, "India is likely to encourage more participation in global trade, which offers increasing gains in economic growth, capital attraction, and generates employment opportunities." However, reforms are needed across central, state, and bureaucratic levels to build a more aligned system. The findings noted that India's private credit industry is set for strong expansion because traditional banks have left a financing gap. Domestic insolvency frameworks are also helping strengthen the sector. Even though risks exist, the limited linkages between private credit and the broader financial system are expected to provide some protection. It added that India can raise its share in the global shipbuilding market over the next decade. However, reaching the target of being among the top five shipbuilding nations by 2047 will be challenging, as India holds less than one per cent share now. Atul Arya, Executive Sponsor of the India Research Chapter and Chief Energy Strategist at S&P Global Commodity Insights, said, “Frameworks that accelerate infrastructure development, promote inclusive reforms, foster private investments, diversify trade, and build resilient supply chains can help India seize opportunities. This edition of India Forward shines light on multidimensional and multi-stakeholder approaches that will strengthen India's growing claim as a global economic and geopolitical powerhouse, even as the horizons continue to shift.” The report highlighted that India is expected to become the second-largest market for datacenter electricity demand in the Asia-Pacific region by 2028, overtaking Japan and Australia. India's digital landscape is undergoing an unprecedented transformation, which is driving significant investments in digital infrastructure, such as data centers, and supporting the expanding digital economy. "India is expected to become the second-largest market for datacenters' electricity demand in the Asia-Pacific region over the next two years, surpassing Japan and Australia," the report said. On the energy front, the report said that "India aims to localize its nuclear value chain and use its vast thorium reserves to enhance domestic capacity building and technology transfer." Reforms in the sector are expected around 2026-27 to make the rules more transparent and attract investment. It also said that India's electric vehicle push is gathering pace, supported by government initiatives in manufacturing and charging networks. While EV adoption is growing, biofuels and green hydrogen are also becoming important, especially for heavy transport.

The report said India has strengthened its position through reforms, infrastructure development, and improvements in processes, which have widened India's growth advantage compared to developed nations.

Despite global shocks, India's growth story remains intact: S&P Global

Japan&rsquo;s economy contracted unexpectedly in the first quarter of 2025, signalling a fragile recovery. The contraction, which marks the first since 2024, has been attributed to a drop in exports, flat consumer spending, and the looming impact of trade tensions with the US, including tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump.
According to preliminary data from the Cabinet Office, Japan&rsquo;s real GDP contracted an annualised 0.7 per cent in the January-March period, far worse than the median forecast of a 0.3 per cent drop.
This decline follows a robust 2.4 per cent expansion in the previous quarter, highlighting the vulnerability of the export-heavy economy. With private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy, stagnating and net exports contributing negatively to growth, Japan&rsquo;s economic outlook appears increasingly uncertain.
<h2>US tariffs deepen challenges</h2>
The contraction in Japan&rsquo;s economy comes as the country faces mounting challenges from trade tensions with the US, particularly following Trump&rsquo;s sweeping tariff measures. In March, the US imposed a 25 per cent duty on steel and aluminium imports, followed by tariffs on automobiles and other Japanese goods in April. These measures are expected to weigh heavily on Japan&rsquo;s export-driven industries, notably the automotive sector, which is a cornerstone of its economic growth.
Japanese automakers, such as Toyota and Honda, have already signalled that the tariffs are affecting their profitability. Honda recently revised its profit forecast for the fiscal year, and Toyota followed suit. The tariffs could cost Japan&rsquo;s automotive sector an estimated &yen;2 trillion ($13.7 billion) in operating profits for the current financial year, prompting concerns about the broader impact on Japan&rsquo;s economy.
Despite these challenges, Japan has signalled that it is prepared to hold out for a better trade deal with the United States. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has made it a priority to negotiate with the US over tariff exemptions. However, the outcome of these talks remains uncertain as the negotiators have yet to reach a breakthrough, and the pressure is mounting on Japan&rsquo;s leadership to secure a favourable deal.
As Japan&rsquo;s economy faces significant headwinds, much of the focus is now on the negotiations with the US over trade tariffs. Japan&rsquo;s economy minister, Ryosei Akazawa, and finance minister, Katsunobu Kato, have already held several rounds of talks with US officials, but significant hurdles remain.
Japan&rsquo;s starting position is the elimination of all new tariffs, including those on automotive and steel imports, which have been particularly damaging to its largest industries. The question now is whether Japan can win exemptions from these tariffs through continued negotiations or whether it will be forced to accept a deal that could further hamper its economic recovery.
While the US and China have recently negotiated a temporary truce, Japan has not yet made substantial progress in its talks with Washington, leaving the country&rsquo;s economic future hanging in the balance.
<h2>India&rsquo;s rising economic power</h2>
While Japan grapples with economic contraction, India is on a different trajectory. With a large and youthful population, a growing manufacturing base, and increasing digital transformation, India has almost closed the economic gap with Japan.
This shift will soon propel India into the position of the world&rsquo;s fourth-largest economy, as Japan&rsquo;s economic challenges deepen. Experts suggest that, with Japan&rsquo;s economy slowing and India continuing its growth trajectory, India may soon surpass Japan in terms of total GDP.
Although the United Nations has reduced India&rsquo;s 2025 growth forecast to 6.3 per cent, experts still predict that India&rsquo;s economic ascent will continue, potentially shifting the global rankings in the coming years.
<h2>The future of Japan&rsquo;s economy</h2>
Japan&rsquo;s economic vulnerability, coupled with its slowing domestic demand, has raised questions about its ability to withstand the impacts of external trade pressures, particularly in light of India&rsquo;s growing economic influence. While Japan&rsquo;s policymakers face pressure to stimulate growth through fiscal measures or interest rate cuts, they are constrained by political considerations and weak demand.
For Japan, the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty. The ongoing trade challenges, combined with stagnant domestic consumption and global trade disruptions, threaten to undermine the nation&rsquo;s ability to maintain its position as a global economic power. Meanwhile, India&rsquo;s continued rise suggests that Japan may soon face new competition for its spot in the top tier of the world&rsquo;s largest economies.
As Japan grapples with these challenges, the global economic landscape is set to undergo a transformation. The balance of power may soon shift, with countries like India emerging as stronger players in the global economy, while Japan&rsquo;s future hangs in the balance amid ongoing trade tensions and internal stagnation.

Business & Economy: Japan’s real GDP contracted an annualised 0.7 per cent in the January-March period highlighting the vulnerability of the export-heavy economy.

Japan’s economy contracted unexpectedly in the first quarter of 2025, signalling a fragile recovery. The contraction, which marks the first since 2024, has been attributed to a drop in exports, flat consumer spending, and the looming impact of trade tensions with the US, including tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. According to preliminary data from the Cabinet Office, Japan’s real GDP contracted an annualised 0.7 per cent in the January-March period, far worse than the median forecast of a 0.3 per cent drop. This decline follows a robust 2.4 per cent expansion in the previous quarter, highlighting the vulnerability of the export-heavy economy. With private consumption, which accounts for more than half of the economy, stagnating and net exports contributing negatively to growth, Japan’s economic outlook appears increasingly uncertain. US tariffs deepen challenges The contraction in Japan’s economy comes as the country faces mounting challenges from trade tensions with the US, particularly following Trump’s sweeping tariff measures. In March, the US imposed a 25 per cent duty on steel and aluminium imports, followed by tariffs on automobiles and other Japanese goods in April. These measures are expected to weigh heavily on Japan’s export-driven industries, notably the automotive sector, which is a cornerstone of its economic growth. Japanese automakers, such as Toyota and Honda, have already signalled that the tariffs are affecting their profitability. Honda recently revised its profit forecast for the fiscal year, and Toyota followed suit. The tariffs could cost Japan’s automotive sector an estimated ¥2 trillion ($13.7 billion) in operating profits for the current financial year, prompting concerns about the broader impact on Japan’s economy. Despite these challenges, Japan has signalled that it is prepared to hold out for a better trade deal with the United States. Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba has made it a priority to negotiate with the US over tariff exemptions. However, the outcome of these talks remains uncertain as the negotiators have yet to reach a breakthrough, and the pressure is mounting on Japan’s leadership to secure a favourable deal. As Japan’s economy faces significant headwinds, much of the focus is now on the negotiations with the US over trade tariffs. Japan’s economy minister, Ryosei Akazawa, and finance minister, Katsunobu Kato, have already held several rounds of talks with US officials, but significant hurdles remain. Japan’s starting position is the elimination of all new tariffs, including those on automotive and steel imports, which have been particularly damaging to its largest industries. The question now is whether Japan can win exemptions from these tariffs through continued negotiations or whether it will be forced to accept a deal that could further hamper its economic recovery. While the US and China have recently negotiated a temporary truce, Japan has not yet made substantial progress in its talks with Washington, leaving the country’s economic future hanging in the balance. India’s rising economic power While Japan grapples with economic contraction, India is on a different trajectory. With a large and youthful population, a growing manufacturing base, and increasing digital transformation, India has almost closed the economic gap with Japan. This shift will soon propel India into the position of the world’s fourth-largest economy, as Japan’s economic challenges deepen. Experts suggest that, with Japan’s economy slowing and India continuing its growth trajectory, India may soon surpass Japan in terms of total GDP. Although the United Nations has reduced India’s 2025 growth forecast to 6.3 per cent, experts still predict that India’s economic ascent will continue, potentially shifting the global rankings in the coming years. The future of Japan’s economy Japan’s economic vulnerability, coupled with its slowing domestic demand, has raised questions about its ability to withstand the impacts of external trade pressures, particularly in light of India’s growing economic influence. While Japan’s policymakers face pressure to stimulate growth through fiscal measures or interest rate cuts, they are constrained by political considerations and weak demand. For Japan, the road ahead is fraught with uncertainty. The ongoing trade challenges, combined with stagnant domestic consumption and global trade disruptions, threaten to undermine the nation’s ability to maintain its position as a global economic power. Meanwhile, India’s continued rise suggests that Japan may soon face new competition for its spot in the top tier of the world’s largest economies. As Japan grapples with these challenges, the global economic landscape is set to undergo a transformation. The balance of power may soon shift, with countries like India emerging as stronger players in the global economy, while Japan’s future hangs in the balance amid ongoing trade tensions and internal stagnation.

Japan’s economy contracts amid US tariff strains, India poised to overtake

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India’s economy poised for 7% growth in FY27 amid global uncertainties: Report

India surpasses Japan to become world's fourth-largest economy, poised to overtake Germany soon: Report

Who really owns two-thirds of India's wealth? New report reveals shocking facts

Indian economy to cross $4 trillion mark this fiscal; GDP growth may exceed 7%

India outperforms US, China and Russia in post-Covid era: Harvard economist

Indian economy gained momentum despite US tariffs: Govt report

India expected to remain world's fastest-growing major economy: World Bank

Why is government probing e-commerce platforms' cash-on-delivery?

Trading platform Dhan becomes India's latest unicorn | Check details

'Build a global order where trade is fair': Sitharaman lauds India's resilience

Despite global shocks, India's growth story remains intact: S&P Global

Japan’s economy contracts amid US tariff strains, India poised to overtake