Watch today in WION Dispatch: India's GDP growth slows to 3.1% in Q4 of 2019-20. Watch this video to get more details.

WION Dispatch: Lowest GDP growth in India in 11 year

The sharp cut in India forecast was necessitated due to slump in economic activities and very stringent lockdown policy, the rating agency said.

India FY21 GDP to contract by 5%: S&P

India's fourth recession since independence, the first since liberalisation and perhaps the worst to date, is here, CRISIL said on Tuesday as it predicted the economy to shrink by 5 per cent in the current fiscal because of coronavirus lockdown.

"The first quarter (April to June 2020) will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction," it said in its assessment of India's GDP.

"About 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals."

In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy.

Crisil said the recession in the current fiscal (April 2020 to March 2021) is different as agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon.

The coronavirus lockdown, first imposed on March 25 and extended thrice till May 31, has curtailed economic activity severely.

"The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected," it said. "Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers."

It also saw economic activity in states with high COVID-19 cases suffering prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer.

Stating that the economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations, it said industrial production for March fell by over 16 per cent, exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year.

"Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst-performing month for India this fiscal," it said.

Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&amp;P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific, it said adding since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger.

"CRISIL forecasts India's GDP growth to fall off a cliff and contract 5% in fiscal 2021," the report said.

"Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since. While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent."

On the Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package announced by the government to support the economy, Crisil said the package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term. 
"We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate," it said.&nbsp;

India's fourth recession since independence, the first since liberalisation and perhaps the worst to date, is here, CRISIL said on Tuesday as it predicted the economy to shrink by 5 per cent in the current fiscal because of coronavirus lockdown.

India's fourth recession since independence, the first since liberalisation and perhaps the worst to date, is here, CRISIL said on Tuesday as it predicted the economy to shrink by 5 per cent in the current fiscal because of coronavirus lockdown. "The first quarter (April to June 2020) will suffer a staggering 25 per cent contraction," it said in its assessment of India's GDP. "About 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost. So going back to the growth rates seen before the pandemic is unlikely in the next three fiscals." In the past 69 years, India has seen a recession only thrice as per available data in fiscals 1958, 1966 and 1980. The reason was the same each time a monsoon shock that hit agriculture, then a sizeable part of the economy. Crisil said the recession in the current fiscal (April 2020 to March 2021) is different as agriculture could soften the blow this time by growing near its trend rate, assuming a normal monsoon. The coronavirus lockdown, first imposed on March 25 and extended thrice till May 31, has curtailed economic activity severely. "The first quarter of this fiscal will be the worst affected," it said. "Not only will the first quarter be a washout for the non-agricultural economy, services such as education, and travel and tourism among others could continue to see a big hit in the quarters to come. Jobs and incomes will see extended losses as these sectors are large employers." It also saw economic activity in states with high COVID-19 cases suffering prolonged disruption as restrictions could continue longer. Stating that the economic costs now beginning to show up in the hard numbers are far worse than initial expectations, it said industrial production for March fell by over 16 per cent, exports contracted 60.3 per cent in April, and new telecom subscribers declined 35 per cent, while railway freight movement plunged 35 per cent on-year. "Indeed, given one of the most stringent lockdowns in the world, April could well be the worst-performing month for India this fiscal," it said. Counting lockdown 4.0, Indians have had 68 days of confinement. S&P Global estimates that one month of lockdown shaves 3 per cent off annual GDP on average across Asia-Pacific, it said adding since India's lockdown has been the most stringent in Asia, the impact on economic growth will be correspondingly larger. "CRISIL forecasts India's GDP growth to fall off a cliff and contract 5% in fiscal 2021," the report said. "Earlier, on April 28, we had slashed our prediction to 1.8 per cent growth from 3.5 per cent growth. Things have only gone downhill since. While we expect non-agricultural GDP to contract 6 per cent, agriculture could cushion the blow by growing at 2.5 per cent." On the Rs 20.9 lakh crore economic relief package announced by the government to support the economy, Crisil said the package has some short-term measures to cushion the economy but sets its sights majorly on reforms, most of which will have payoffs only over the medium term. "We estimate the fiscal cost of this package at 1.2 per cent of GDP, which is lower than what we had assumed in our earlier estimate," it said.

India facing its worst recession in current fiscal, says Crisil

Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) K V Subramanian on Monday said that GDP growth in the first quarter (April to June) this fiscal is likely to range between one to two per cent due to COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdown, reported news agency ANI.

Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) K V Subramanian on Monday said that GDP growth in the first quarter (April to June) this fiscal is likely to range between one to two per cent due to COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdown, reported news agency ANI. The economy could pick up as industries restart their operations with the streamlining of supply chains and migrant workers getting back to their jobs in the second quarter, he reportedly told ANI. The nationwide lockdown has brought economic activities to a virtual standstill. Subramanian said that it is difficult to estimate possible job losses due to the lockdown due to lingering uncertainty. However, good companies are likely to retain most of their workforce and with minimum wage cuts, as they resume operations, he told. The Chief Economic Advisor said the global economic scenario is weak and there is bound to be an impact on Indian exports. "It is, however, time for Indian industries to revamp their strategies, adopt modern technologies and gear up to compete in global markets as many multinational corporations look towards shifting their manufacturing base out of China,'' he said. He said Indian cities provide a vibrant ground for migrant workers where they can aspire for good working conditions, better lifestyles, and reasonable education and healthcare facilities compared to their home towns. Subramanian said the current volatility in the stock market does not reflect strong fundamentals of the Indian economy. The markets ride on sentiments of investors who look for near-term profits in high-growth areas.

GDP growth to hover between 1 to 2 pc in Q1 FY21: CEA Subramanian

ndia's manufacturing activity declined at its sharpest pace on record in April as the lockdown announced by the government to curb the rapid spread of the deadly COVID-19

India's factory activity slumps to record low in April

In this segment of Straight Talk, WION in an exclusive conversation spoke to IMF Chief Economist Gita Gopinath on India's GDP growth in 2020.

WION exclusive Straight Talk with IMF Chief Economist  Gita Gopinath on Indian Economy

The Reserve Bank Of India has announced liquidity measures for banks and NPFC's and now the central bank has forecast a 7.4% GDP growth. Watch report.

RBI governor on revival of economy | India's GDP to grow at 7.4% in 2021-22

The cost of <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/climate-change-concerns-not-limited-to-young-people-says-sri-lankas-ex-pm-ranil-wickremesinghe-at-wion-global-summit-284551">climate change</a> may be higher than expected and India is among the countries most vulnerable to the crisis.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/science-tech/nearly-half-of-worlds-beaches-disappearing-due-to-climate-change-study-283976">Also Read:&nbsp;Nearly half of world's beaches disappearing due to climate change</a>

A recent report has warned that temperatures in India would reach such extreme levels in the near future that they may prove to be lethal for an average human being.

The effects of climate change can be seen everywhere, toxic air, intense heatwave, forest fires, melting ice caps, flash floods and sinking cities.

According to a report by the McKinsey global institute, high temperatures and heat waves may threaten the very survival of human beings.

India could be one of the world's first places where temperatures may rise above the survival threshold for humans.

Climate change and global warming may hit India’s GDP within a decade, the report said.

The report says by 2030, temperatures in India could reach such a level that outdoor workers may be forced to cut short their daylight working hours to beat lethal heat waves.

The resultant loss in productivity could put 2.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent of India's GDP at risk annually and by 2050, several pockets with a population of 16 to 20 crore people would experience 60 per cent annual chance of such heat waves.

Just 4-5 hours of outdoor exposure during this time can prove to be fatal for a healthy human being.

As of 2017, heat-exposed work produces about 50 per cent dip in India's GDP mainly agricultural and mining. 
&nbsp;

The cost of climate change may be higher than expected and India is among the countries most vulnerable to the crisis. Also Read: Nearly half of world's beaches disappearing due to climate change A recent report has warned that temperatures in India would reach such extreme levels in the near future that they may prove to be lethal for an average human being.

The cost of climate change may be higher than expected and India is among the countries most vulnerable to the crisis. Also Read: Nearly half of world's beaches disappearing due to climate change A recent report has warned that temperatures in India would reach such extreme levels in the near future that they may prove to be lethal for an average human being. The effects of climate change can be seen everywhere, toxic air, intense heatwave, forest fires, melting ice caps, flash floods and sinking cities. According to a report by the McKinsey global institute, high temperatures and heat waves may threaten the very survival of human beings. India could be one of the world's first places where temperatures may rise above the survival threshold for humans. Climate change and global warming may hit India’s GDP within a decade, the report said. The report says by 2030, temperatures in India could reach such a level that outdoor workers may be forced to cut short their daylight working hours to beat lethal heat waves. The resultant loss in productivity could put 2.5 per cent to 4.5 per cent of India's GDP at risk annually and by 2050, several pockets with a population of 16 to 20 crore people would experience 60 per cent annual chance of such heat waves. Just 4-5 hours of outdoor exposure during this time can prove to be fatal for a healthy human being. As of 2017, heat-exposed work produces about 50 per cent dip in India's GDP mainly agricultural and mining.

Climate change, global warming may hit India’s GDP within a decade: Report

According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), India's<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/indias-gdp-seen-growing-at-47-in-december-quarter-283196"> Gross Domestic Product</a>(GDP) slipped to 4.7 per cent in October-December 2019.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/india-china-to-account-for-nearly-35-of-global-gdp-in-2060-study-278393">Also Read: India, China to account for nearly 35% of global GDP in 2060</a>

India's GDP was 5.6 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2018-19.

India's economy grew 5.1 per cent in the nine-month period between April-December 2019 as against 6.3 per cent in the same period a year ago, the NSO informed.

The NSO pegged economic growth at 5 per cent in 2019-20 on Friday. India's Reserve Bank had pegged India's GDP growth at 5 per cent for 2019-20.

The Controller General of Accounts (CGA) informed that India's fiscal deficit touched 128.5 per cent of the whole year budget target at January-end, the government had targeted to restrict the fiscal deficit at Rs 7,66,846 crore during the year ending March 31, 2020.

In the Budget, finance minister&nbsp;Nirmalal Sitharaman had raised fiscal deficit target to 3.8 per cent of the GDP from 3.3 per cent earlier for 2019-20.

According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), India's Gross Domestic Product(GDP) slipped to 4.7 per cent in October-December 2019. Also Read: India, China to account for nearly 35% of global GDP in 2060 India's GDP was 5.

According to the National Statistical Office (NSO), India's Gross Domestic Product(GDP) slipped to 4.7 per cent in October-December 2019. Also Read: India, China to account for nearly 35% of global GDP in 2060 India's GDP was 5.6 per cent in the corresponding quarter of 2018-19. India's economy grew 5.1 per cent in the nine-month period between April-December 2019 as against 6.3 per cent in the same period a year ago, the NSO informed. The NSO pegged economic growth at 5 per cent in 2019-20 on Friday. India's Reserve Bank had pegged India's GDP growth at 5 per cent for 2019-20. The Controller General of Accounts (CGA) informed that India's fiscal deficit touched 128.5 per cent of the whole year budget target at January-end, the government had targeted to restrict the fiscal deficit at Rs 7,66,846 crore during the year ending March 31, 2020. In the Budget, finance minister Nirmalal Sitharaman had raised fiscal deficit target to 3.8 per cent of the GDP from 3.3 per cent earlier for 2019-20.

India's GDP growth slips to 4.7% in December quarter

Having suffered its weakest expansion in over six years in the September quarter, India's economy probably fared slightly better in the December quarter, before suffering a relapse due to the impact of the coronavirus globally, analysts said.

Gross domestic product data due to be released on Friday will cover up to the end of last year, before the epidemic in China had sparked fears of a pandemic.

The median forecast of a Reuters poll of economists put annual economic growth at 4.7% in the December quarter, marginally higher than 4.5% in the previous quarter thanks to a small rebound in rural demand, private consumption and government spending.

"The economy showed some signs of recovery in December quarter due to higher government spending and external factors, but faces a risk of relapsing in the current quarter mainly due to the coronavirus," said N.R. Bhanumurthy, an economist at National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), a Delhi-based government funded think tank.

Even achieving 4.5% annual growth this quarter would be a challenge, Bhanumurthy added.

In its annual budget presented earlier this month, the government estimated economic growth in the current fiscal year ending in March would be 5%, the lowest for 11 years.

And the government only targeted a slight recovery in growth to 6% for 2020/21, well below the levels required to generate jobs for the millions of young Indians entering the labour market each month.

Analysts expected growth would pick up gradually driven by a favourable base effect, a cut in corporate tax rates last September and increased government spending.

But, the central bank earlier this month warned that the downside risks to global growth have increased as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the full effects of which are still uncertain and unfolding.

"Although number of cases of COVID-19 (coronavirus) in India are less, the economic impact is expected to accrue from supply chain risk," Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economist at State Bank of India, citing problems in supply of raw materials from China for pharmaceuticals and other exports.

A spike in inflation to a more than 5-1/2 year high of 7.59% in January is expected to make the Reserve Bank of India hold off on further cuts in interest rates for now, while keeping its monetary stance accommodative.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said some signs of green shoots were visible in the economy as the government has eased bottlenecks for consumer and industry bank loans, while expanding spending on infrastructure.

But analysts remained doubtful.

Goldman Sachs cut its growth forecast to 4.9% for the March quarter from earlier estimate of 5.4%.

"Despite the downward revision, we believe the risks to our growth forecast are still tilted to the downside, given the risk aversion in the domestic financial sector, the continued weakness in rural demand," Goldman Sachs, said in a note on Wednesday.

&nbsp;

Having suffered its weakest expansion in over six years in the September quarter, India's economy probably fared slightly better in the December quarter, before suffering a relapse due to the impact of the coronavirus globally, analysts said.

Having suffered its weakest expansion in over six years in the September quarter, India's economy probably fared slightly better in the December quarter, before suffering a relapse due to the impact of the coronavirus globally, analysts said. Gross domestic product data due to be released on Friday will cover up to the end of last year, before the epidemic in China had sparked fears of a pandemic. The median forecast of a Reuters poll of economists put annual economic growth at 4.7% in the December quarter, marginally higher than 4.5% in the previous quarter thanks to a small rebound in rural demand, private consumption and government spending. "The economy showed some signs of recovery in December quarter due to higher government spending and external factors, but faces a risk of relapsing in the current quarter mainly due to the coronavirus," said N.R. Bhanumurthy, an economist at National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP), a Delhi-based government funded think tank. Even achieving 4.5% annual growth this quarter would be a challenge, Bhanumurthy added. In its annual budget presented earlier this month, the government estimated economic growth in the current fiscal year ending in March would be 5%, the lowest for 11 years. And the government only targeted a slight recovery in growth to 6% for 2020/21, well below the levels required to generate jobs for the millions of young Indians entering the labour market each month. Analysts expected growth would pick up gradually driven by a favourable base effect, a cut in corporate tax rates last September and increased government spending. But, the central bank earlier this month warned that the downside risks to global growth have increased as a result of the coronavirus epidemic, the full effects of which are still uncertain and unfolding. "Although number of cases of COVID-19 (coronavirus) in India are less, the economic impact is expected to accrue from supply chain risk," Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economist at State Bank of India, citing problems in supply of raw materials from China for pharmaceuticals and other exports. A spike in inflation to a more than 5-1/2 year high of 7.59% in January is expected to make the Reserve Bank of India hold off on further cuts in interest rates for now, while keeping its monetary stance accommodative. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has said some signs of green shoots were visible in the economy as the government has eased bottlenecks for consumer and industry bank loans, while expanding spending on infrastructure. But analysts remained doubtful. Goldman Sachs cut its growth forecast to 4.9% for the March quarter from earlier estimate of 5.4%. "Despite the downward revision, we believe the risks to our growth forecast are still tilted to the downside, given the risk aversion in the domestic financial sector, the continued weakness in rural demand," Goldman Sachs, said in a note on Wednesday.

India's GDP seen growing at 4.7% in December quarter

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Monday lowered growth estimate for India to 4.8% for FY20, citing stress in the non-bank financial sector and weak rural income growth as the major factors for the downward revision.

IMF lowers India growth estimate to 4.8% for FY20

Indian states face difficulties in reducing deficits, challenging the country's ability to meet medium-term fiscal consolidation goals as economic growth slows, Moody's Investors Service said in a new report released on Wednesday.

"Indian states do not generate sufficient own source revenue to cover their spending needs. The introduction of <a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/gst-revenue-collections-for-june-total-rs-99939-crore-232065">Goods and Services Tax </a>(GST) in 2017 has further increased states' reliance on central government transfers," said Moody's Assistant Vice President and Analyst Gjorgji Josifov.

"As slowing growth and continued infrastructure spending are likely to keep state-level deficits elevated, we expect the central government will continue to face challenges in achieving its fiscal consolidation targets," added Josifov.

The implementation of the GST in July 2017 replaced many indirect taxes levied by the states with centralised GST rates. As a result, states are now more reliant on the central government for revenue, with the central government accounting for almost half their revenue.

Meanwhile, persistent spending pressures and slowing economic growth will keep state-level deficits high at about 3 per cent of GDP for the fiscal year ending March 2020. Coupled with the projected 3.7 per cent deficit for the central government, this will bring the general government deficit to about 6.7 per cent.

Without policy changes, Moody's expects states' deficits to stay around current levels which will continue to challenge general government (combined central and state) fiscal consolidation.

As a percentage of GDP, states' outstanding debt will remain around 25 per cent in fiscal 2019 and 2020. To achieve the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act baseline scenario of debt-GDP reaching 20 per cent by 2024-25 will require significant expenditure cuts and much higher revenue growth.

Moody's report forms part of its continuing research on the debt and finances of India's states and local governments, and the central government's efforts to reduce deficits and debt.

Indian states face difficulties in reducing deficits, challenging the country's ability to meet medium-term fiscal consolidation goals as economic growth slows, Moody's Investors Service said in a new report released on Wednesday.

Indian states face difficulties in reducing deficits, challenging the country's ability to meet medium-term fiscal consolidation goals as economic growth slows, Moody's Investors Service said in a new report released on Wednesday. "Indian states do not generate sufficient own source revenue to cover their spending needs. The introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) in 2017 has further increased states' reliance on central government transfers," said Moody's Assistant Vice President and Analyst Gjorgji Josifov. "As slowing growth and continued infrastructure spending are likely to keep state-level deficits elevated, we expect the central government will continue to face challenges in achieving its fiscal consolidation targets," added Josifov. The implementation of the GST in July 2017 replaced many indirect taxes levied by the states with centralised GST rates. As a result, states are now more reliant on the central government for revenue, with the central government accounting for almost half their revenue. Meanwhile, persistent spending pressures and slowing economic growth will keep state-level deficits high at about 3 per cent of GDP for the fiscal year ending March 2020. Coupled with the projected 3.7 per cent deficit for the central government, this will bring the general government deficit to about 6.7 per cent. Without policy changes, Moody's expects states' deficits to stay around current levels which will continue to challenge general government (combined central and state) fiscal consolidation. As a percentage of GDP, states' outstanding debt will remain around 25 per cent in fiscal 2019 and 2020. To achieve the Fiscal Responsibility and Budget Management (FRBM) Act baseline scenario of debt-GDP reaching 20 per cent by 2024-25 will require significant expenditure cuts and much higher revenue growth. Moody's report forms part of its continuing research on the debt and finances of India's states and local governments, and the central government's efforts to reduce deficits and debt.

Indian states face challenges in reducing deficits, constraining government fiscal consolidation: Report

India's power demand fell 13.2 per cent&nbsp;in October from a year ago, posting its steepest monthly decline in over 12 years, government data showed, reflecting a deepening growth slowdown in Asia's third-largest economy.

The country needs electricity to fuel its expanding economy but a&nbsp;third decline in power consumption in as many months points to tapering industrial activity in the nation that aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024.

India's June quarter GDP grew at its weakest pace in six years as consumer demand and government spending slowed, and economists see the falling electricity demand as a reflection of a further slowdown.

"The slowdown seems to be deep-rooted, especially in the industrial sector. That would certainly increase the anxiety with regard to growth prospects in the current year," said N.R. Bhanumurthy, a professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi.

Consumption in heavily industrialized states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat led the decline. Last month, power demand in Maharashtra declined by 22.4 per cent&nbsp;and in Gujarat by 18.8 per cent, the data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) showed. Barring four small states in the country's north and the east, demand fell across regions, the data showed.

India's infrastructure output in September contracted 5.2 per cent, the worst in 14 years, adding to the worries of the government that has been unable to revive demand in the economy despite several steps in the last few months.

Its fuel demand growth - also seen by economists as an indicator of economic activity - is on track for the slowest pace in six years.

Economists said India's growth could fall as low as 5.8 per cent, dragged down by a slump in consumer demand and investment. India's central bank last month cut its growth forecast by 80 basis points for the year ending March 2020 to 6.1 per cent.

Slower economic activity has resulted in a fall in sales of everything from cars to cookies, with some large scale industries resorting to large job cuts.

India's automobile sector, for instance, has cut hundreds of thousands of jobs, citing an unprecedented decline in sales.

"Now we are talking about a sub 6 per cent&nbsp;growth for the current fiscal year," Bhanumurthy told Reuters.

The government, which has not revised its growth forecast of 7 per cent&nbsp;for the financial year, is expected to release data on economic growth by the end of this month. Information on electricity demand prior to January 2006 is not publicly available.

Populous states such as Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Madhya Pradesh (MP) saw demand fall - with MP's electricity requirement falling by over a fourth and UP seeing a decline of 8.3 per cent.

India's power demand fell 13.2 per cent in October from a year ago, posting its steepest monthly decline in over 12 years, government data showed, reflecting a deepening growth slowdown in Asia's third-largest economy.

India's power demand fell 13.2 per cent in October from a year ago, posting its steepest monthly decline in over 12 years, government data showed, reflecting a deepening growth slowdown in Asia's third-largest economy. The country needs electricity to fuel its expanding economy but a third decline in power consumption in as many months points to tapering industrial activity in the nation that aims to become a $5 trillion economy by 2024. India's June quarter GDP grew at its weakest pace in six years as consumer demand and government spending slowed, and economists see the falling electricity demand as a reflection of a further slowdown. "The slowdown seems to be deep-rooted, especially in the industrial sector. That would certainly increase the anxiety with regard to growth prospects in the current year," said N.R. Bhanumurthy, a professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi. Consumption in heavily industrialized states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat led the decline. Last month, power demand in Maharashtra declined by 22.4 per cent and in Gujarat by 18.8 per cent, the data from the Central Electricity Authority (CEA) showed. Barring four small states in the country's north and the east, demand fell across regions, the data showed. India's infrastructure output in September contracted 5.2 per cent, the worst in 14 years, adding to the worries of the government that has been unable to revive demand in the economy despite several steps in the last few months. Its fuel demand growth - also seen by economists as an indicator of economic activity - is on track for the slowest pace in six years. Economists said India's growth could fall as low as 5.8 per cent, dragged down by a slump in consumer demand and investment. India's central bank last month cut its growth forecast by 80 basis points for the year ending March 2020 to 6.1 per cent. Slower economic activity has resulted in a fall in sales of everything from cars to cookies, with some large scale industries resorting to large job cuts. India's automobile sector, for instance, has cut hundreds of thousands of jobs, citing an unprecedented decline in sales. "Now we are talking about a sub 6 per cent growth for the current fiscal year," Bhanumurthy told Reuters. The government, which has not revised its growth forecast of 7 per cent for the financial year, is expected to release data on economic growth by the end of this month. Information on electricity demand prior to January 2006 is not publicly available. Populous states such as Uttar Pradesh (UP) and Madhya Pradesh (MP) saw demand fall - with MP's electricity requirement falling by over a fourth and UP seeing a decline of 8.3 per cent.

India's electricity demand falls at fastest pace in at least 12 years

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/gdp-growth-falls-to-5-per-cent-in-in-april-june-2019-246664">India's GDP growth falls to 5 per cent in April-June 2019</a>

India's GDP growth slowed down to 5 per cent in the first quarter of the financial year FY20 indicating that that slowdown in the Indian economy persists.

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sithraman on Friday announced four state-run banks mergers. India will now have 12 Public Sector Banks from 27.

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After more than 1,000 days of political brawling, hordes of headlines and dizzying lurches in sterling, the battle of Brexit enters the endgame.

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Warsaw and Washington have agreed on six locations for new US troops to be stationed in Poland, the country's Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said on Friday, a day after Donald Trump cancelled a trip to the eastern European nation.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/hong-kong-mass-rally-called-off-as-pro-democracy-lawmaker-arrested-in-protest-crackdown-246649">Hong Kong: Mass rally called-off as pro-democracy lawmaker arrested in protest crackdown</a>

Prominent Hong Kong democracy activists including a lawmaker were arrested Friday in a protest crackdown -- a move described by rights groups as a well-worn tactic deployed by China to suffocate dissent ahead of key political events.

&nbsp;

India's GDP growth falls to 5 per cent in April-June 2019 India's GDP growth slowed down to 5 per cent in the first quarter of the financial year FY20 indicating that that slowdown in the Indian economy persists.

India's GDP growth falls to 5 per cent in April-June 2019 India's GDP growth slowed down to 5 per cent in the first quarter of the financial year FY20 indicating that that slowdown in the Indian economy persists. Mega bank reforms: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman announces 4 state-run banks mergers Finance Minister Nirmala Sithraman on Friday announced four state-run banks mergers. India will now have 12 Public Sector Banks from 27. Brexit endgame: It's PM Boris Johnson versus parliament in historic showdown After more than 1,000 days of political brawling, hordes of headlines and dizzying lurches in sterling, the battle of Brexit enters the endgame. Warsaw, Washington agree on locations for new US troops in Poland: Defence minister Warsaw and Washington have agreed on six locations for new US troops to be stationed in Poland, the country's Defence Minister Mariusz Blaszczak said on Friday, a day after Donald Trump cancelled a trip to the eastern European nation. Hong Kong: Mass rally called-off as pro-democracy lawmaker arrested in protest crackdown Prominent Hong Kong democracy activists including a lawmaker were arrested Friday in a protest crackdown -- a move described by rights groups as a well-worn tactic deployed by China to suffocate dissent ahead of key political events.

News brief: Big stories of the day

India's GDP growth slowed down to 5 per cent in the first quarter of the financial year FY20&nbsp;indicating that that slowdown in the Indian economy persists.

The GDP growth fell from 5.8 per cent to 5 per cent in the April to June period in 2019.

In May, the government had announced India's GDP figures for January-March quarter of 2018-19&nbsp;had slipped to 5.8 per cent against 6.6 per cent in the third quarter due to poor performance in agriculture and manufacturing sectors.

The Central Statistics Office (CSO) had said that GDP growth during 2018-19 fiscal had stood at 6.8 per cent&nbsp;lower than 7.2 per cent in the previous financial year.

India's GDP growth slowed down to 5 per cent in the first quarter of the financial year FY20 indicating that that slowdown in the Indian economy persists. The GDP growth fell from 5.

India's GDP growth slowed down to 5 per cent in the first quarter of the financial year FY20 indicating that that slowdown in the Indian economy persists. The GDP growth fell from 5.8 per cent to 5 per cent in the April to June period in 2019. In May, the government had announced India's GDP figures for January-March quarter of 2018-19 had slipped to 5.8 per cent against 6.6 per cent in the third quarter due to poor performance in agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) had said that GDP growth during 2018-19 fiscal had stood at 6.8 per cent lower than 7.2 per cent in the previous financial year.

India's GDP growth falls to 5 per cent in April-June 2019

The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) said on Wednesday that <a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/government-says-it-follows-accepted-procedures-for-gdp-estimation-226348">India's GDP</a> estimation methodology is at par with its global standing as a responsible, transparent and well-managed economy.

A detailed note titled 'GDP estimation in India: Perspectives and Facts'&nbsp;rubbished former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian's claims that India's average annual growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 May have been over-estimated by about 2.5 percentage points -- meaning that India actually grew at 4.5 per cent and not 7 per cent, between 2011-12 and 2016-17.

The note said Subramanian cherry-picked a few indicators and performed a rather unconvincing regression analysis to prove his hypothesis that India`s GDP was over-estimated post-2011-12.

For instance, Subramanian's paper selectively ignores tax data based on the argument that the period post-2011-12 witnessed major changes in direct and indirect taxes.

The note said Subramanian's analysis ended on March 31, 2017, while the only major tax change (Goods and Services Tax) was introduced on July 1, 2017.

In totality, the note highlights eight clear points with supportive facts and arguments that debunk Subramanian's paper in entirety. The new methodology that uses 2011-12 as the base year includes two major improvements: incorporation of MCA21 database and incorporation of Recommendations of System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008.

"This change was in line with other countries that have changed their methodologies in line with SNA 2008 and revised their respective GDP figures."

On average, the real GDP estimates saw an increase of 0.7 per cent among OECD countries.

The note prepared with major contributions from leading economists Bibek Debroy, Rathin Roy, Surjit Bhalla, Charan Singh, and Arvind Virmani "reject Subramanian's methodology, arguments, and conclusions on the basis of academic merit and grasp of Indian realities," according to an official statement.

The note concluded with the point that India's GDP estimation methodology is by no means a perfect exercise and the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is working on multiple aspects to improve the accuracy of economic data.

"However, the direction and pace of improvement is commendable and as of today India's GDP estimation methodology is at par with its global standing as a responsible, transparent and well-managed economy," said the statement.

"If anything, the weakness of Subramaniam's attempt to suggest that the growth numbers are over-estimated confirms that the estimation process is robust to spurious criticism," said the statement.

"Going forward, Indian National Income Accounting is bound to change for good and an important step in accomplishing that will involve criticism from experts and academics. But the country's interests are not served by imparting sensationalism through the negativity that questions the credibility of the system," added the statement.

The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) said on Wednesday that India's GDP estimation methodology is at par with its global standing as a responsible, transparent and well-managed economy.

The Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM) said on Wednesday that India's GDP estimation methodology is at par with its global standing as a responsible, transparent and well-managed economy. A detailed note titled 'GDP estimation in India: Perspectives and Facts' rubbished former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian's claims that India's average annual growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 May have been over-estimated by about 2.5 percentage points -- meaning that India actually grew at 4.5 per cent and not 7 per cent, between 2011-12 and 2016-17. The note said Subramanian cherry-picked a few indicators and performed a rather unconvincing regression analysis to prove his hypothesis that India`s GDP was over-estimated post-2011-12. For instance, Subramanian's paper selectively ignores tax data based on the argument that the period post-2011-12 witnessed major changes in direct and indirect taxes. The note said Subramanian's analysis ended on March 31, 2017, while the only major tax change (Goods and Services Tax) was introduced on July 1, 2017. In totality, the note highlights eight clear points with supportive facts and arguments that debunk Subramanian's paper in entirety. The new methodology that uses 2011-12 as the base year includes two major improvements: incorporation of MCA21 database and incorporation of Recommendations of System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008. "This change was in line with other countries that have changed their methodologies in line with SNA 2008 and revised their respective GDP figures." On average, the real GDP estimates saw an increase of 0.7 per cent among OECD countries. The note prepared with major contributions from leading economists Bibek Debroy, Rathin Roy, Surjit Bhalla, Charan Singh, and Arvind Virmani "reject Subramanian's methodology, arguments, and conclusions on the basis of academic merit and grasp of Indian realities," according to an official statement. The note concluded with the point that India's GDP estimation methodology is by no means a perfect exercise and the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is working on multiple aspects to improve the accuracy of economic data. "However, the direction and pace of improvement is commendable and as of today India's GDP estimation methodology is at par with its global standing as a responsible, transparent and well-managed economy," said the statement. "If anything, the weakness of Subramaniam's attempt to suggest that the growth numbers are over-estimated confirms that the estimation process is robust to spurious criticism," said the statement. "Going forward, Indian National Income Accounting is bound to change for good and an important step in accomplishing that will involve criticism from experts and academics. But the country's interests are not served by imparting sensationalism through the negativity that questions the credibility of the system," added the statement.

EAC-PM releases detailed analysis on robustness of India's GDP estimation methodology

The promise of democracy is the periodic opportunity it creates for fresh beginnings. A government re-elected with such a resounding mandate should continue with the successful aspects of its economic policies. The most notable has been promoting economic inclusion via the public provision of essential private goods and services, including toilets, housing, power, cooking gas, bank accounts, emergency medical assistance, and now a basic income for all farmers.

India Watch: Is India's GDP rate overestimated?

India’s economic growth rate slowed to five-year low of 5.8% in January-March 2018-19, due to poor performance in agriculture and manufacturing sectors, official data released on May 31 said.

India's GDP growth rate slumps to 5.8% in fourth quarter

Asserting that the strategic partnership between<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/trump-to-end-trade-privileges-for-india-on-june-5-223286"> India and the US </a>has strengthened significantly during the past two decades, the Pentagon on Friday told the Congress that both countries recognise the importance of the Indo-Pacific to global trade and commerce and share a common outlook on the region.

The Indo-Pacific region contributes two-thirds of global growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) and accounts for 60 per cent of the global GDP.&nbsp;

This region includes the world's largest economies- the United States, China and Japan- and six of the world's fastest-growing economies - India, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Nepal and the Philippines.

A quarter of US exports go to the Indo-Pacific. Exports to India and China have more than doubled over the past decade due to free and open trade routes through the air, sea, land, space and cyber commons that form the current global system.

"Both countries recognise the importance of the Indo-Pacific to global trade and commerce and acknowledge that developments in this region will shape the larger trajectory of the rules-based international order,"&nbsp;the Pentagon said in an Indo-Pacific Strategy Report to the Congress amidst China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea.

India, through its "Act East"&nbsp;policy, continues to make significant security, economic and development investments to secure the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region, said the report which is a comprehensive articulation of its role within a whole-of-government strategy for the Indo-Pacific region.&nbsp;

As an implementation document, the report provides clarity on the US National Defence Strategy as it applies to the region and highlights the role of allies and partners in implementing our shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific.

Noting that the Indian Ocean Region is at the nexus of global trade and commerce, with nearly half of the world's 90,000 commercial vessels and two thirds of global oil trade travelling through its sea lanes, it said the region boasts some of the fastest-growing economies on Earth and is home to a quarter of the world's population.

While the region offers unprecedented opportunity, it is also confronting a myriad of security challenges, including terrorism, transnational crime, trafficking-in-persons, and illicit drugs.&nbsp;

To combat these challenges, the United States seeks opportunities to broaden and strengthen partnerships with India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bangladesh and Nepal to respond to shared regional challenges, the report said.

The US and India maintain a broad-based strategic partnership, underpinned by shared interests, democratic values and strong people-to-people ties, it said.

"The US-India strategic partnership has strengthened significantly during the past two decades, based on a convergence of strategic interests, and the United States and India continue to use their deepening relationship to build new partnerships within and beyond the Indo-Pacific,"&nbsp;the Pentagon said.

Noting that in June 2016, the US designated India a "Major Defense Partner,"&nbsp;a status unique to India, the Pentagon said the designation seeks to elevate the US defence partnership with India to a level commensurate with that of the United States' closest allies and partners.

The establishment of the US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in September 2018 also serves as a tangible demonstration of our commitment to promoting the shared principles of a free and open Indo-Pacific, it said.

According to the Pentagon, the US continues to pursue a range of initiatives with India to enable cooperation, strengthen their inter-operability, and establish a strong foundation for defence trade, technology sharing, industrial collaboration, and broader cooperation on defence innovation.

The signing of the Communications, Compatibility and Security Agreement in 2018 represents a significant development in our military-to-military relationship, facilitating greater inter-operability and real-time secure information-sharing. Department of Defense and the Indian Ministry of Defence are increasing the scope, complexity, and frequency of our military exercises.

Later this year, the US and India will conduct their first tri-service exercise, it said.&nbsp;

Asserting that the strategic partnership between India and the US has strengthened significantly during the past two decades, the Pentagon on Friday told the Congress that both countries recognise the importance of the Indo-Pacific to global trade and commerce and share a common outlook on the region.

Asserting that the strategic partnership between India and the US has strengthened significantly during the past two decades, the Pentagon on Friday told the Congress that both countries recognise the importance of the Indo-Pacific to global trade and commerce and share a common outlook on the region. The Indo-Pacific region contributes two-thirds of global growth in the gross domestic product (GDP) and accounts for 60 per cent of the global GDP. This region includes the world's largest economies- the United States, China and Japan- and six of the world's fastest-growing economies - India, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Nepal and the Philippines. A quarter of US exports go to the Indo-Pacific. Exports to India and China have more than doubled over the past decade due to free and open trade routes through the air, sea, land, space and cyber commons that form the current global system. "Both countries recognise the importance of the Indo-Pacific to global trade and commerce and acknowledge that developments in this region will shape the larger trajectory of the rules-based international order," the Pentagon said in an Indo-Pacific Strategy Report to the Congress amidst China flexing its muscles in the South China Sea. India, through its "Act East" policy, continues to make significant security, economic and development investments to secure the vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific region, said the report which is a comprehensive articulation of its role within a whole-of-government strategy for the Indo-Pacific region. As an implementation document, the report provides clarity on the US National Defence Strategy as it applies to the region and highlights the role of allies and partners in implementing our shared vision for a free and open Indo-Pacific. Noting that the Indian Ocean Region is at the nexus of global trade and commerce, with nearly half of the world's 90,000 commercial vessels and two thirds of global oil trade travelling through its sea lanes, it said the region boasts some of the fastest-growing economies on Earth and is home to a quarter of the world's population. While the region offers unprecedented opportunity, it is also confronting a myriad of security challenges, including terrorism, transnational crime, trafficking-in-persons, and illicit drugs. To combat these challenges, the United States seeks opportunities to broaden and strengthen partnerships with India, Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Bangladesh and Nepal to respond to shared regional challenges, the report said. The US and India maintain a broad-based strategic partnership, underpinned by shared interests, democratic values and strong people-to-people ties, it said. "The US-India strategic partnership has strengthened significantly during the past two decades, based on a convergence of strategic interests, and the United States and India continue to use their deepening relationship to build new partnerships within and beyond the Indo-Pacific," the Pentagon said. Noting that in June 2016, the US designated India a "Major Defense Partner," a status unique to India, the Pentagon said the designation seeks to elevate the US defence partnership with India to a level commensurate with that of the United States' closest allies and partners. The establishment of the US-India 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in September 2018 also serves as a tangible demonstration of our commitment to promoting the shared principles of a free and open Indo-Pacific, it said. According to the Pentagon, the US continues to pursue a range of initiatives with India to enable cooperation, strengthen their inter-operability, and establish a strong foundation for defence trade, technology sharing, industrial collaboration, and broader cooperation on defence innovation. The signing of the Communications, Compatibility and Security Agreement in 2018 represents a significant development in our military-to-military relationship, facilitating greater inter-operability and real-time secure information-sharing. Department of Defense and the Indian Ministry of Defence are increasing the scope, complexity, and frequency of our military exercises. Later this year, the US and India will conduct their first tri-service exercise, it said.

India, US strategic partnership has strengthened significantly: Pentagon

Congress party on Saturday urged the new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to come up with a multi-phased roadmap to kick-start the economy and evolve an employment generating strategy.

"Slump in economic growth and runaway unemployment are two important challenges before the country. I hope the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister will address them by laying a short-medium-long term roadmap of kick-starting the growth engine as also employment generating strategy," said Congress leader Randeep Surjewala.

Government data showed on Friday that the country recorded a GDP growth of 6.8 per cent in 2018-19, the lowest in five years. In FY 2017-18, the GDP growth rate was 7.2 per cent.

The slowdown was largely attributed to lacklustre growth in the agriculture and mining sectors.

Data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Friday also showed that 5.8 per cent of men and 3.8 per cent of women are unemployed in rural India.

In urban areas, the numbers are much higher at 7.1 per cent of men and 10.8 per cent women being unemployed.

Congress leader PL Punia also urged the government to take concrete steps to reverse the economic slowdown which, he said, is causing a lot of hardship to people.

The industrial output is down, the manufacturing sector is not growing, resulting in massive unemployment in urban and rural regions across the country, he said.

The news of unemployment in 2017-18 at 6.1 per cent came as when the Cabinet of Prime Minister Narendra Modi began its second term on Friday.

Congress party on Saturday urged the new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to come up with a multi-phased roadmap to kick-start the economy and evolve an employment generating strategy.

Congress party on Saturday urged the new government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to come up with a multi-phased roadmap to kick-start the economy and evolve an employment generating strategy. "Slump in economic growth and runaway unemployment are two important challenges before the country. I hope the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister will address them by laying a short-medium-long term roadmap of kick-starting the growth engine as also employment generating strategy," said Congress leader Randeep Surjewala. Government data showed on Friday that the country recorded a GDP growth of 6.8 per cent in 2018-19, the lowest in five years. In FY 2017-18, the GDP growth rate was 7.2 per cent. The slowdown was largely attributed to lacklustre growth in the agriculture and mining sectors. Data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Friday also showed that 5.8 per cent of men and 3.8 per cent of women are unemployed in rural India. In urban areas, the numbers are much higher at 7.1 per cent of men and 10.8 per cent women being unemployed. Congress leader PL Punia also urged the government to take concrete steps to reverse the economic slowdown which, he said, is causing a lot of hardship to people. The industrial output is down, the manufacturing sector is not growing, resulting in massive unemployment in urban and rural regions across the country, he said. The news of unemployment in 2017-18 at 6.1 per cent came as when the Cabinet of Prime Minister Narendra Modi began its second term on Friday.

Congress urges new government to reverse economic slowdown

India's GDP is expected to grow at <a href="http://www.wionews.com/business-economy/world-economy-to-slow-this-year-due-to-us-china-trade-conflict-world-bank-189112">7.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2018-19</a>, and 7.5 per cent in the following two years, the World Bank has forecast, attributing it to an upswing in consumption and investment.

The bank said India will <a href="http://www.wionews.com/business-economy/government-estimates-gdp-growth-at-72-for-2018-19-188853">continue to be the fastest</a> growing major economy in the world.

China's economic growth is projected to slow down to 6.2 each in 2019 and 2020 and 6 per cent in 2021, according to the January 2019 Global Economic Prospects report released by the World Bank on Tuesday.

In 2018, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 6.5 per cent as against India's 7.3 per cent.&nbsp;

In 2017, China with 6.9 per cent growth was marginally ahead of India's 6.7 per cent, mainly because the slowdown in the Indian economy due to demonetisation and implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the report said. 
&nbsp; 
"India's growth outlook is still robust. India is still the fastest growing major economy," World Bank Prospects Group Director Ayhan Kose said.

"With investment picking up and consumption remaining strong, we expect India to grow 7.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2018-2019, and average 7.5 per cent in 2019 and 2020. India registered quite a bit of pick up in doing business ranking. The growth momentum is there (in India)," Kose informed.

In India, the growth has accelerated, driven by an upswing in consumption, and investment growth has firmed as the effects of temporary factors wane, the World Bank said in its latest report.&nbsp;

Domestic demand has strengthened as the benefits of structural reforms such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) harmonisation and bank recapitalisation take effect.

"India's growth accelerated to an estimated 7.3 per cent in FY2018/19 (April to March) as economic activity continued to recover with strong domestic demand. While investment continued to strengthen amid the GST harmonisation and a rebound of credit growth, consumption remained the major contributor to growth," the World Bank said.

According to the report, India's GDP is forecast to grow by 7.3 per cent in FY2018/19 and 7.5 per cent thereafter, in line with June forecasts.&nbsp;

Private consumption is projected to remain robust and investment growth is expected to continue as the benefits of recent policy reforms begin to materialise and credit rebounds.

Strong domestic demand is envisioned to widen the current account deficit to 2.6 per cent of GDP next year. Inflation is projected to rise somewhat above the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of India's target range of 2 to 6 per cent, mainly owing to energy and food prices, the bank said. 
&nbsp;&nbsp; &nbsp; 
It said in India the recent introduction of the GST and steps toward demonetisation are expected to encourage a shift from the informal to the formal sector.

"India's recent growth numbers suggest that the economy remains robust despite temporary setbacks (due top demonetisation and GST)," Kose said.&nbsp;

The World Bank's estimate suggest that India's potential growth rate is around seven per cent, and is expected to remain around seven per cent, he said in response to a question.&nbsp;

"The fact is that Indian economy is being able to deliver growth slightly above its potential is a very good sign," he added.

Refraining from commenting on the economic performance of the Modi government that too in an election year, the World Bank official said growth performance of India as compared to other emerging markets has been quite impressive.&nbsp;

"India's growth performance has been quite impressive. Year after year it has delivered strong numbers around its potential growth," he said.

India's GDP is expected to grow at 7.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2018-19, and 7.5 per cent in the following two years, the World Bank has forecast, attributing it to an upswing in consumption and investment.

India's GDP is expected to grow at 7.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2018-19, and 7.5 per cent in the following two years, the World Bank has forecast, attributing it to an upswing in consumption and investment. The bank said India will continue to be the fastest growing major economy in the world. China's economic growth is projected to slow down to 6.2 each in 2019 and 2020 and 6 per cent in 2021, according to the January 2019 Global Economic Prospects report released by the World Bank on Tuesday. In 2018, the Chinese economy is estimated to have grown by 6.5 per cent as against India's 7.3 per cent. In 2017, China with 6.9 per cent growth was marginally ahead of India's 6.7 per cent, mainly because the slowdown in the Indian economy due to demonetisation and implementation of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), the report said. "India's growth outlook is still robust. India is still the fastest growing major economy," World Bank Prospects Group Director Ayhan Kose said. "With investment picking up and consumption remaining strong, we expect India to grow 7.3 per cent in the fiscal year 2018-2019, and average 7.5 per cent in 2019 and 2020. India registered quite a bit of pick up in doing business ranking. The growth momentum is there (in India)," Kose informed. In India, the growth has accelerated, driven by an upswing in consumption, and investment growth has firmed as the effects of temporary factors wane, the World Bank said in its latest report. Domestic demand has strengthened as the benefits of structural reforms such as the Goods and Services Tax (GST) harmonisation and bank recapitalisation take effect. "India's growth accelerated to an estimated 7.3 per cent in FY2018/19 (April to March) as economic activity continued to recover with strong domestic demand. While investment continued to strengthen amid the GST harmonisation and a rebound of credit growth, consumption remained the major contributor to growth," the World Bank said. According to the report, India's GDP is forecast to grow by 7.3 per cent in FY2018/19 and 7.5 per cent thereafter, in line with June forecasts. Private consumption is projected to remain robust and investment growth is expected to continue as the benefits of recent policy reforms begin to materialise and credit rebounds. Strong domestic demand is envisioned to widen the current account deficit to 2.6 per cent of GDP next year. Inflation is projected to rise somewhat above the midpoint of the Reserve Bank of India's target range of 2 to 6 per cent, mainly owing to energy and food prices, the bank said. It said in India the recent introduction of the GST and steps toward demonetisation are expected to encourage a shift from the informal to the formal sector. "India's recent growth numbers suggest that the economy remains robust despite temporary setbacks (due top demonetisation and GST)," Kose said. The World Bank's estimate suggest that India's potential growth rate is around seven per cent, and is expected to remain around seven per cent, he said in response to a question. "The fact is that Indian economy is being able to deliver growth slightly above its potential is a very good sign," he added. Refraining from commenting on the economic performance of the Modi government that too in an election year, the World Bank official said growth performance of India as compared to other emerging markets has been quite impressive. "India's growth performance has been quite impressive. Year after year it has delivered strong numbers around its potential growth," he said.

India's GDP to grow at 7.3%, China to grow at 6.5% this year: World Bank

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/business-economy/indias-second-quarter-gdp-slips-to-71-per-cent-180485">India's </a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/business-economy/indias-second-quarter-gdp-slips-to-71-per-cent-180485">second quarter</a><a href="http://www.wionews.com/business-economy/indias-second-quarter-gdp-slips-to-71-per-cent-180485"> GDP slips to 7.1 per cent</a>

India recorded its second quarter(Q2) GDP at 7.1 per cent which was slower than the last quarter.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/congress-central-leadership-asked-me-to-go-to-kartarpur-navjot-singh-sidhu-on-pakistan-visit-180481">Congress central leadership asked me to go to Kartarpur: Sidhu</a>

Amid the criticism over Pakistan visit, Punjab Cabinet Minister, Navjot Singh Sidhu said that he went for the Kartapur Corridor inauguration ceremony with the consent of his party's central leadership.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/g20-trump-meets-argentine-president-mauricio-macri-discuss-trade-military-ties-180467">G20: Trump meets Argentine President Mauricio Macri; discuss trade, military ties</a>

President Trump met Argentine President Mauricio Macri ahead of the G20 opening at Buenos Aires in Argentina on Friday.

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/delhi-rahul-gandhi-arvind-kejriwal-farooq-abdullah-join-farmers-protest-at-jantar-mantar-180470">Delhi: Rahul, Kejriwal join farmers' protest at Jantar Mantar</a>

Opposition leaders including Congress President Rahul Gandhi, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and National Conference Chairman Farooq Abdullah participated in massive farmers protest in Delhi on Friday.&nbsp;

<a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/telangana-cm-kcr-under-fire-for-snapping-at-man-querying-about-12-quota-for-muslims-180499">Telangana CM KCR under fire for snapping at man querying about 12% quota for Muslims</a>

TRS leader and Telangana caretaker Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao lost his cool and asked a man to remain silent when he raised a question on the proposed 12 per cent reservation for Muslims during an election meeting in Komaram Bheem Asifabad district.

&nbsp;

India's second quarter GDP slips to 7.1 per cent India recorded its second quarter(Q2) GDP at 7.1 per cent which was slower than the last quarter. Congress central leadership asked me to go to Kartarpur: Sidhu Amid the criticism over Pakistan visit, Punjab Cabinet Minister, Navjot Singh Sidhu said that he went for the Kartapur Corridor inauguration ceremony with the consent of his party's central leadership.

India's second quarter GDP slips to 7.1 per cent India recorded its second quarter(Q2) GDP at 7.1 per cent which was slower than the last quarter. Congress central leadership asked me to go to Kartarpur: Sidhu Amid the criticism over Pakistan visit, Punjab Cabinet Minister, Navjot Singh Sidhu said that he went for the Kartapur Corridor inauguration ceremony with the consent of his party's central leadership. G20: Trump meets Argentine President Mauricio Macri; discuss trade, military ties President Trump met Argentine President Mauricio Macri ahead of the G20 opening at Buenos Aires in Argentina on Friday. Delhi: Rahul, Kejriwal join farmers' protest at Jantar Mantar Opposition leaders including Congress President Rahul Gandhi, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal and National Conference Chairman Farooq Abdullah participated in massive farmers protest in Delhi on Friday. Telangana CM KCR under fire for snapping at man querying about 12% quota for Muslims TRS leader and Telangana caretaker Chief Minister K Chandrasekhar Rao lost his cool and asked a man to remain silent when he raised a question on the proposed 12 per cent reservation for Muslims during an election meeting in Komaram Bheem Asifabad district.

At a time when policymakers are grappling on how to reduce inequalities, a wealth report Tuesday said there has been a 34 per cent increase in the number of Indians having a net worth of Rs 1,000 crore or more.

Significantly, these individuals who number 831, collectively own a quarter of the nation's GDP with a net worth of $719 billion, says the report, which quotes the IMF April 2018 data pegs GDP at $2.85 trillion.

Led by Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani with a net worth of Rs 3.71 trillion, there were 831 Indians having a net worth of Rs 1,000 crore or more in 2018, which is 214 individuals more than the 2017 list, according to a Barclays- Hurun India rich list.

In a January 2018 report presented by Oxfam at the World Economic Forum, had expressed concern on the rising inequalities, stating that 1 per cent of the country's population holds 73 per cent of the wealth.

The financial capital, which presents stark contrasts like housing the largest slums in the continent as also costliest mansions like Ambani's Antilla, has the highest number of contributors to the rich list, with 233 rich, followed by 163 in the national Capital and 70 in Bengaluru.

Anas Rahman Junaid, managing director and chief researcher at Hurun India says the country is the fastest growing when it comes to people entering the rich list.

"The number of Rs 1,000 crore-plus wealthy Indians have nearly doubled in the past two years-from 339 in 2016 to 831 in 2018," he said.

From a demographic perspective, the average age on the list is 60, the 24-year-old Ritesh Agarwal of Oravel Stays which runs Oyo Rooms, being the youngest and 95-year-old Dharam Pal Gulati of the masala brand MDH being the eldest.

There was a massive, 157 per cent spike in the number of women on the list, which grew to 136.

Pharma sector promoters/executives dominate the list with a 13.7 per cent occupancy, followed by software and services at 7.9 per cent and fast moving consumer goods at 6.4 per cent.

Nine individuals on the list saw a doubling of wealth in 2018, with Krishna Kumar Bangur of Graphite India being the biggest gainer with a 430 per cent jump in his personal fortunes.

At a time when policymakers are grappling on how to reduce inequalities, a wealth report Tuesday said there has been a 34 per cent increase in the number of Indians having a net worth of Rs 1,000 crore or more.

At a time when policymakers are grappling on how to reduce inequalities, a wealth report Tuesday said there has been a 34 per cent increase in the number of Indians having a net worth of Rs 1,000 crore or more. Significantly, these individuals who number 831, collectively own a quarter of the nation's GDP with a net worth of $719 billion, says the report, which quotes the IMF April 2018 data pegs GDP at $2.85 trillion. Led by Reliance Industries chairman Mukesh Ambani with a net worth of Rs 3.71 trillion, there were 831 Indians having a net worth of Rs 1,000 crore or more in 2018, which is 214 individuals more than the 2017 list, according to a Barclays- Hurun India rich list. In a January 2018 report presented by Oxfam at the World Economic Forum, had expressed concern on the rising inequalities, stating that 1 per cent of the country's population holds 73 per cent of the wealth. The financial capital, which presents stark contrasts like housing the largest slums in the continent as also costliest mansions like Ambani's Antilla, has the highest number of contributors to the rich list, with 233 rich, followed by 163 in the national Capital and 70 in Bengaluru. Anas Rahman Junaid, managing director and chief researcher at Hurun India says the country is the fastest growing when it comes to people entering the rich list. "The number of Rs 1,000 crore-plus wealthy Indians have nearly doubled in the past two years-from 339 in 2016 to 831 in 2018," he said. From a demographic perspective, the average age on the list is 60, the 24-year-old Ritesh Agarwal of Oravel Stays which runs Oyo Rooms, being the youngest and 95-year-old Dharam Pal Gulati of the masala brand MDH being the eldest. There was a massive, 157 per cent spike in the number of women on the list, which grew to 136. Pharma sector promoters/executives dominate the list with a 13.7 per cent occupancy, followed by software and services at 7.9 per cent and fast moving consumer goods at 6.4 per cent. Nine individuals on the list saw a doubling of wealth in 2018, with Krishna Kumar Bangur of Graphite India being the biggest gainer with a 430 per cent jump in his personal fortunes.

Led by Mukesh Ambani, richest 831 collectively own a quarter of India's GDP

With remittances from the Middle East in decline, India may face problems in the domestic labor market.

India remains the world&rsquo;s leading recipient of international personal remittances, claiming 10.9% of global inflows, followed by China (10.6%) and Philippines (5.4%), according to latest data released by World Bank for 2016. Total remittance inflow to India was $62 billion in 2016, down from $68 billion in 2015. A major fall (9.5%) is noted from the Middle Eastern countries, whose share constitutes 55.7% ($35 billion) of India&rsquo;s total remittances, as the average annual income per Indian migrant across the region decreased from $5,973 in 2015 to $5,407 in 2016.

Remittances are a major component in terms of contribution to GDP, especially for developing nations like India where domestic resources and national production are insufficient to provide full employment for the existing labor supply. Average wage rate is also lower in India compared to the countries where remittances originate. Also, while India&rsquo;s remittance inflows are similar to China&rsquo;s, the share of remittances as a percentage of GDP is higher in India (2.5%), against China&rsquo;s 0.6%. This difference reflects a higher dependency of India&rsquo;s domestic economy on foreign remittances. Since the Middle East, and specifically the Gulf states, is a major source for India&rsquo;s remittance inflow, a decline in earning in the region could adversely affect India&rsquo;s employment and balance of payment.

The Middle East accommodates the highest number of Indian migrants around the world, with an estimated 8 million residing in the region, accounting for 19.7% of total global migrants in the Middle East and 53.7% of total Indian migrants globally. Over the last four years, the number of Indian workers to emigration check required (ECR) countries fell from 804,000 in 2014 to 391,000 in 2017. ECR, a protective measure for the non-matriculate Indian migrants to 17 countries across the Middle East and Southeast Asia, was adopted under the Migration Act 1983. Out of 17 ECR countries, 12 are in the Middle East. According to RBI survey report for 2012, 42% of migrants to the Middle East were classified as unskilled labor.

A discrepancy in earnings is illustrative: While an average salary in India is $2,860 a year, in Qatar&nbsp;Indian migrants earn $6,916 a year on average, followed by $5,713 in Kuwait, $5,544 in the United Arab Emirates $5,112 in Saudi Arabia. Indians occupy various positions ranging from managerial roles to laborers. Around 10% are employed as doctors, engineers, charted accountants and scientists, while a further 10% work in in white-collar jobs such as storekeepers clerks, secretaries and accountants in both government and private sectors. The majority, around 75%-80%, makes up laborers and technicians working in construction and as home servants.

The ongoing economic downturn in the Gulf countries due to the fall in crude oil prices, internal political disturbances, the extra burden of taxes on expats (like the family-dependent tax in Saudi Arabia) and the growing inclination to recruit locals could account for the fall in remittances. Further, Indian workers in the Middle East report violations of contractual terms, adverse working conditions, poor wages as well as problems related to medical, insurance and compensation claims. As a result, many Indian workers have shown an interest in returning home. By February 2017, 3,015 workers in the Middle East have requested repatriation from Indian authorities (a vast majority of these from Saudi Arabia), while 594 Indians were in jail across the Middle East this time last year.&nbsp;

Besides external pressures, Indian policies toward the ECR migrants heading to the Gulf are also major causes for the decline, like the introduction of a tax on conversion of remittances, extra regularization of foreign recruiting markets and now the color coding of ECR passports. The color coding scheme was part of a reform to minimize the number of passport pages that contain unnecessary information. Since ECR status was included on a separate page, India&rsquo;s government had the intention to remove this page by coloring the passport jacket orange to identify ECR emigrants. This could create a sense of inferiority among the ECR passport holders due to their poor economic and educational status and further decrease labor flow.

After protests by politicians and activists, India&rsquo;s government rolled back its discriminatory initiative. Pointing out its repercussions, Oommen Chandy, former chief minister of Kerala, said: &ldquo;If this becomes a reality, the moment an orange color passport holder lands in a foreign country, he will be treated with disdain, and it will have a telling impact on such people&rsquo;s character and individuality. This should not happen at all.&rdquo;

Shashi Tharoor, chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs, surmised that &ldquo;the very premise of this decision &mdash; discriminating against the citizens of a country based on their economic status and educational qualifications &mdash; makes it inherently unfair.&rdquo;

A decline of remittance inflows creates a major cause for concern due to adverse impact on India&rsquo;s balance of payment and on the domestic employment adjustment. The government must take remedial measures to curb such decline and to prevent the discriminatory behavior against ECR migrants. Disputes related to wages and contract violations are also common in the Indian labor market, but the occurrence of such incidents among migrants across the Middle East should not be overstated to provide a reason for tightening recruitment rules and imposing excess regulations.

This <a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/region/middle_east_north_africa/global-remittances-middle-east-gulf-india-labor-force-news-43199/" rel="nofollow" target="blank">article</a> has been originally published in the <a href="https://www.fairobserver.com/" rel="nofollow" target="blank">Fair Observer</a>.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

A major fall is noted from the Middle Eastern countries, whose share constitutes 55.7% of India’s total remittances, as the average annual income per Indian migrant across the region decreased.

With remittances from the Middle East in decline, India may face problems in the domestic labor market. India remains the world’s leading recipient of international personal remittances, claiming 10.9% of global inflows, followed by China (10.6%) and Philippines (5.4%), according to latest data released by World Bank for 2016. Total remittance inflow to India was $62 billion in 2016, down from $68 billion in 2015. A major fall (9.5%) is noted from the Middle Eastern countries, whose share constitutes 55.7% ($35 billion) of India’s total remittances, as the average annual income per Indian migrant across the region decreased from $5,973 in 2015 to $5,407 in 2016. Remittances are a major component in terms of contribution to GDP, especially for developing nations like India where domestic resources and national production are insufficient to provide full employment for the existing labor supply. Average wage rate is also lower in India compared to the countries where remittances originate. Also, while India’s remittance inflows are similar to China’s, the share of remittances as a percentage of GDP is higher in India (2.5%), against China’s 0.6%. This difference reflects a higher dependency of India’s domestic economy on foreign remittances. Since the Middle East, and specifically the Gulf states, is a major source for India’s remittance inflow, a decline in earning in the region could adversely affect India’s employment and balance of payment. The Middle East accommodates the highest number of Indian migrants around the world, with an estimated 8 million residing in the region, accounting for 19.7% of total global migrants in the Middle East and 53.7% of total Indian migrants globally. Over the last four years, the number of Indian workers to emigration check required (ECR) countries fell from 804,000 in 2014 to 391,000 in 2017. ECR, a protective measure for the non-matriculate Indian migrants to 17 countries across the Middle East and Southeast Asia, was adopted under the Migration Act 1983. Out of 17 ECR countries, 12 are in the Middle East. According to RBI survey report for 2012, 42% of migrants to the Middle East were classified as unskilled labor. A discrepancy in earnings is illustrative: While an average salary in India is $2,860 a year, in Qatar Indian migrants earn $6,916 a year on average, followed by $5,713 in Kuwait, $5,544 in the United Arab Emirates $5,112 in Saudi Arabia. Indians occupy various positions ranging from managerial roles to laborers. Around 10% are employed as doctors, engineers, charted accountants and scientists, while a further 10% work in in white-collar jobs such as storekeepers clerks, secretaries and accountants in both government and private sectors. The majority, around 75%-80%, makes up laborers and technicians working in construction and as home servants. The ongoing economic downturn in the Gulf countries due to the fall in crude oil prices, internal political disturbances, the extra burden of taxes on expats (like the family-dependent tax in Saudi Arabia) and the growing inclination to recruit locals could account for the fall in remittances. Further, Indian workers in the Middle East report violations of contractual terms, adverse working conditions, poor wages as well as problems related to medical, insurance and compensation claims. As a result, many Indian workers have shown an interest in returning home. By February 2017, 3,015 workers in the Middle East have requested repatriation from Indian authorities (a vast majority of these from Saudi Arabia), while 594 Indians were in jail across the Middle East this time last year. Besides external pressures, Indian policies toward the ECR migrants heading to the Gulf are also major causes for the decline, like the introduction of a tax on conversion of remittances, extra regularization of foreign recruiting markets and now the color coding of ECR passports. The color coding scheme was part of a reform to minimize the number of passport pages that contain unnecessary information. Since ECR status was included on a separate page, India’s government had the intention to remove this page by coloring the passport jacket orange to identify ECR emigrants. This could create a sense of inferiority among the ECR passport holders due to their poor economic and educational status and further decrease labor flow. After protests by politicians and activists, India’s government rolled back its discriminatory initiative. Pointing out its repercussions, Oommen Chandy, former chief minister of Kerala, said: “If this becomes a reality, the moment an orange color passport holder lands in a foreign country, he will be treated with disdain, and it will have a telling impact on such people’s character and individuality. This should not happen at all.” Shashi Tharoor, chairman of the Parliamentary Standing Committee on External Affairs, surmised that “the very premise of this decision — discriminating against the citizens of a country based on their economic status and educational qualifications — makes it inherently unfair.” A decline of remittance inflows creates a major cause for concern due to adverse impact on India’s balance of payment and on the domestic employment adjustment. The government must take remedial measures to curb such decline and to prevent the discriminatory behavior against ECR migrants. Disputes related to wages and contract violations are also common in the Indian labor market, but the occurrence of such incidents among migrants across the Middle East should not be overstated to provide a reason for tightening recruitment rules and imposing excess regulations. This article has been originally published in the Fair Observer. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Opinion: India's labour market may suffer from declining remittances from Middle-East

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Led by Mukesh Ambani, richest 831 collectively own a quarter of India's GDP

Opinion: India's labour market may suffer from declining remittances from Middle-East