S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence announced on Monday that India’s growth prediction for FY24 was raised upward to 6.6 per cent on the strength of strong growth in the April-June quarter, according to a report by The Economic Times.

This represents a significant change from the 5.9 per cent growth the analytics company predicted in August. However, compared to 5.1 per cent in August, the inflation rate was forecast to grow sharply to 6 per cent in 2023, touching the upper band goal range set by the RBI.

The Economic Times quoted Rajiv Biswas, APAC Chief Economist at S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence as saying, “India's economic growth momentum was buoyant in the April-June quarter, growing at a pace of 7.8 per cent year-on-year, supported by robust growth in domestic demand.”

S&amp;P is less pessimistic about inflation but in contrast is more positive than the Reserve Bank of India, which expects the economy to grow by 6.5 per cent this fiscal year.

Biswas noted a risk to the prognosis from the recent recovery in global oil prices, noting that there is still a chance of a major El Nino weather event forming in late 2023 and into 2024, which may cause drought conditions and raise prices for important agricultural commodities.

S&amp;P highlighted that due to concerns about global economic development, India's economy is likely to increase at a rate of 6.2 per cent in FY25 as opposed to the 6.1 per cent projected in August. While the company increased its growth projection for 2023 to 2.6 per cent because it was confident about the world's prospects, it decreased its growth forecast for 2024 to 2.3 per cent in its September update.

The paper said that "downside risks include inflation persistence, tighter financial conditions, and escalating geopolitical tensions" and claimed that "the 2024 global growth forecast has been lowered again."

The company noted that while the US is expected to see a marked slowdown with threats to China's growth, the recession in Europe was the baseline scenario for the second half of 2023.

India's exports are anticipated to suffer from slower global growth.

Concerns over inflation

India's inflation rate is anticipated to be high, at 5.3 per cent, in 2024.

The global analytics company raised its worldwide inflation forecast for 2023 and 2024 in response to its prediction of worsening inflation trends across nations.

The Economic Times quoted S&amp;P stating that “the near-term outlook for inflation has deteriorated,” citing increased crude oil prices and a rise in the cost of some industrial non-energy goods.

Given the generally tight labour market circumstances, increased wage and unit labour cost rise, and persistent core inflation rates, particularly for services, the report added.

According to the group, global inflation will reach a high of 5.7 per cent in 2023 and stay over 4 per cent in 2024.

India's inflation somewhat decreased in August from 7.4 per cent to 6.8 per cent, and it is anticipated to continue to reduce as a result of lower tomato prices and a Rs 200 ($2.4) reduction in the cost of LPG cylinders.

High inflation, according to experts, will accelerate the trajectory of rate cuts. At its meeting in early October, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI is anticipated to maintain the policy rate at 6.5 per cent.

A similar trajectory for advanced economies may be predicted, according to S&amp;P Global Market Intelligence.

“Central bank rate cuts in advanced economies remain some way off. Our forecast remains that policy rate cuts in advanced economies are unlikely until mid-2024 given the challenging inflationary environment,” The Economic Times quoted S&amp;P as saying.

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S&P Global Market Intelligence announced on Monday that India’s growth prediction for FY24 was raised upward to 6.6 per cent on the strength of strong growth in the April-June quarter, according to a report by The Economic Times.

S&P Global Market Intelligence announced on Monday that India’s growth prediction for FY24 was raised upward to 6.6 per cent on the strength of strong growth in the April-June quarter, according to a report by The Economic Times. This represents a significant change from the 5.9 per cent growth the analytics company predicted in August. However, compared to 5.1 per cent in August, the inflation rate was forecast to grow sharply to 6 per cent in 2023, touching the upper band goal range set by the RBI. The Economic Times quoted Rajiv Biswas, APAC Chief Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence as saying, “India's economic growth momentum was buoyant in the April-June quarter, growing at a pace of 7.8 per cent year-on-year, supported by robust growth in domestic demand.” S&P is less pessimistic about inflation but in contrast is more positive than the Reserve Bank of India, which expects the economy to grow by 6.5 per cent this fiscal year. Biswas noted a risk to the prognosis from the recent recovery in global oil prices, noting that there is still a chance of a major El Nino weather event forming in late 2023 and into 2024, which may cause drought conditions and raise prices for important agricultural commodities. S&P highlighted that due to concerns about global economic development, India's economy is likely to increase at a rate of 6.2 per cent in FY25 as opposed to the 6.1 per cent projected in August. While the company increased its growth projection for 2023 to 2.6 per cent because it was confident about the world's prospects, it decreased its growth forecast for 2024 to 2.3 per cent in its September update. The paper said that "downside risks include inflation persistence, tighter financial conditions, and escalating geopolitical tensions" and claimed that "the 2024 global growth forecast has been lowered again." The company noted that while the US is expected to see a marked slowdown with threats to China's growth, the recession in Europe was the baseline scenario for the second half of 2023. India's exports are anticipated to suffer from slower global growth. Concerns over inflation India's inflation rate is anticipated to be high, at 5.3 per cent, in 2024. The global analytics company raised its worldwide inflation forecast for 2023 and 2024 in response to its prediction of worsening inflation trends across nations. The Economic Times quoted S&P stating that “the near-term outlook for inflation has deteriorated,” citing increased crude oil prices and a rise in the cost of some industrial non-energy goods. Given the generally tight labour market circumstances, increased wage and unit labour cost rise, and persistent core inflation rates, particularly for services, the report added. According to the group, global inflation will reach a high of 5.7 per cent in 2023 and stay over 4 per cent in 2024. India's inflation somewhat decreased in August from 7.4 per cent to 6.8 per cent, and it is anticipated to continue to reduce as a result of lower tomato prices and a Rs 200 ($2.4) reduction in the cost of LPG cylinders. High inflation, according to experts, will accelerate the trajectory of rate cuts. At its meeting in early October, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI is anticipated to maintain the policy rate at 6.5 per cent. A similar trajectory for advanced economies may be predicted, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. “Central bank rate cuts in advanced economies remain some way off. Our forecast remains that policy rate cuts in advanced economies are unlikely until mid-2024 given the challenging inflationary environment,” The Economic Times quoted S&P as saying. WATCH WION LIVE HERE

 S&P Global raises India’s FY24 growth projection to 6.6 pc amid inflation worries

The six new members of the five-member BRICS grouping of emerging economies would have a combined GDP share of barely 11 per cent as of January, with Saudi Arabia contributing the most at 4 per cent, according to an analysis.

According to an SBI Research analysis, the proposed membership of Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates will increase the five-member BRICS—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, grouping’s share of the global GDP to 30 per cent from the current 26 per cent and its population share to 46 per cent.

The decision for expansion was announced at the last BRICS summit in Johannesburg, which is to be effective on January 1, 2024.

China’s share of the BRICS’ GDP currently stands at 70 per cent, but it will soon drop to 62 per cent. India currently provides 13 per cent, but that share will soon drop to 12 per cent. South Africa produces just 2 per cent, Brazil gives 7 per cent, and Russia contributes 8 per cent, totalling 26 per cent of the world’s economic output.

Brazil’s stake will remain unchanged following the expansion, the study added without providing a justification, while South Africa’s share will decrease by 50 per cent to 1 per cent and Russia’s share by 7 per cent.

According to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economist at State Bank of India, of these six economies, the UAE is India’s largest trading partner with bilateral trade worth Rs 6,81,259 crore ($82 billion) in FY23. Saudi Arabia is second with Rs 4,23,834 crore ($51 billion), Egypt is third with Rs 48,792 crore ($5 billion), Argentina is fourth with Rs 39,100 crore ($4 billion), Iran is fifth with Rs 18,680 crore ($2 billion), and Ethiopia is sixth with Rs 5,154 crore ($623 million).

Saudi Arabia will have the largest economy among the new members, contributing 4 per cent of the group’s GDP. Argentina, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Iran will each contribute 2 per cent, while Ethiopia’s entry will have essentially no effect on the economy.

According to the data provided, the Saudi economy was approximately $1.1 trillion in 2022 (it was already a G20 member), Argentina’s was $632 billion, the UAE’s was $507 billion, Egypt’s was $477 billion, Iran’s was $388 billion, and Ethiopia’s was $127 billion.

According to Ghosh’s prediction in the report, the BRICS+6 economies'&nbsp;combined GDP will increase from the existing BRICS by 11 per cent, or 4 per cent of the global GDP in 2022, and will contribute to the BRICS+6’s share reaching 30 per cent.

Even with the new member, China ($18.1 trillion in 2022) and India ($3.75 trillion) will still account for 74 per cent of the bloc’s total GDP, down from 83 per cent of the $26.2 trillion pre-expansion economy.

In 2022, the Russian economy had a value of $2.2 trillion, compared to Brazil’s $1.8 trillion and South Africa’s $468 billion.

Currently, the BRICS+6 and G20 (Group of 20 largest economies) have respective population shares of 3.7 billion and 5.1 billion, $29.2 trillion and $70.4 trillion in terms of GDP, and $5.5 trillion and $9.4 trillion in terms of foreign exchange reserves.

40 per cent of the world’s population lives in the five countries, which together account for 26 per cent of the world’s GDP. However, with the addition of the six additional members (BRICS+6), their GDP share will increase to 30 per cent and their population share to 46 per cent.

According to the report, the biggest effect will be on the global oil production share, which would rise from 18 to 40 per cent, while their oil consumption portion will climb from 27 to 36 per cent.

The statement added that their portion of the world’s FX reserves would climb by 600 basis points to 45 per cent and that their shares in global merchandise trade and services trade would both expand from 20 per cent to 25 per cent and 11 per cent to 15 per cent, respectively.

The oil equations could be a game changer for the payment system and price discovery due to the significant increase in the share of oil commerce; Saudi Arabia has the second largest oil reserves behind Russia.

(With inputs from PTI)

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The six new members of the five-member BRICS grouping of emerging economies would have a combined GDP share of barely 11 per cent as of January, with Saudi Arabia contributing the most at 4 per cent, according to an analysis.

The six new members of the five-member BRICS grouping of emerging economies would have a combined GDP share of barely 11 per cent as of January, with Saudi Arabia contributing the most at 4 per cent, according to an analysis. According to an SBI Research analysis, the proposed membership of Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates will increase the five-member BRICS—Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, grouping’s share of the global GDP to 30 per cent from the current 26 per cent and its population share to 46 per cent. The decision for expansion was announced at the last BRICS summit in Johannesburg, which is to be effective on January 1, 2024. China’s share of the BRICS’ GDP currently stands at 70 per cent, but it will soon drop to 62 per cent. India currently provides 13 per cent, but that share will soon drop to 12 per cent. South Africa produces just 2 per cent, Brazil gives 7 per cent, and Russia contributes 8 per cent, totalling 26 per cent of the world’s economic output. Brazil’s stake will remain unchanged following the expansion, the study added without providing a justification, while South Africa’s share will decrease by 50 per cent to 1 per cent and Russia’s share by 7 per cent. According to Soumya Kanti Ghosh, chief economist at State Bank of India, of these six economies, the UAE is India’s largest trading partner with bilateral trade worth Rs 6,81,259 crore ($82 billion) in FY23. Saudi Arabia is second with Rs 4,23,834 crore ($51 billion), Egypt is third with Rs 48,792 crore ($5 billion), Argentina is fourth with Rs 39,100 crore ($4 billion), Iran is fifth with Rs 18,680 crore ($2 billion), and Ethiopia is sixth with Rs 5,154 crore ($623 million). Saudi Arabia will have the largest economy among the new members, contributing 4 per cent of the group’s GDP. Argentina, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Iran will each contribute 2 per cent, while Ethiopia’s entry will have essentially no effect on the economy. According to the data provided, the Saudi economy was approximately $1.1 trillion in 2022 (it was already a G20 member), Argentina’s was $632 billion, the UAE’s was $507 billion, Egypt’s was $477 billion, Iran’s was $388 billion, and Ethiopia’s was $127 billion. According to Ghosh’s prediction in the report, the BRICS+6 economies' combined GDP will increase from the existing BRICS by 11 per cent, or 4 per cent of the global GDP in 2022, and will contribute to the BRICS+6’s share reaching 30 per cent. Even with the new member, China ($18.1 trillion in 2022) and India ($3.75 trillion) will still account for 74 per cent of the bloc’s total GDP, down from 83 per cent of the $26.2 trillion pre-expansion economy. In 2022, the Russian economy had a value of $2.2 trillion, compared to Brazil’s $1.8 trillion and South Africa’s $468 billion. Currently, the BRICS+6 and G20 (Group of 20 largest economies) have respective population shares of 3.7 billion and 5.1 billion, $29.2 trillion and $70.4 trillion in terms of GDP, and $5.5 trillion and $9.4 trillion in terms of foreign exchange reserves. 40 per cent of the world’s population lives in the five countries, which together account for 26 per cent of the world’s GDP. However, with the addition of the six additional members (BRICS+6), their GDP share will increase to 30 per cent and their population share to 46 per cent. According to the report, the biggest effect will be on the global oil production share, which would rise from 18 to 40 per cent, while their oil consumption portion will climb from 27 to 36 per cent. The statement added that their portion of the world’s FX reserves would climb by 600 basis points to 45 per cent and that their shares in global merchandise trade and services trade would both expand from 20 per cent to 25 per cent and 11 per cent to 15 per cent, respectively. The oil equations could be a game changer for the payment system and price discovery due to the significant increase in the share of oil commerce; Saudi Arabia has the second largest oil reserves behind Russia. (With inputs from PTI) WATCH WION LIVE HERE

BRICS’s six new members to have GDP share of just 11 pc: Report

On the Indian economic front, India's gross domestic product has in fact grown at a very impressive 7.8 per cent for the April to June quarter.

India's growth story gets a boost: GDP grew at 7.4%

India’s economy expanded at its quickest rate in a year in the April-June quarter, data is expected to indicate on Thursday. Meanwhile, economists foresee a slowdown.

The median projection of economists surveyed by Reuters indicates that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.7 per cent in the most recent quarter, which is faster growth than the country experienced in the April to June quarter in 2022.

According to economists, falling commodity costs have allowed for manufacturers to raise profits and somewhat offset the 250-basis point increase in interest rates since May 2022.

India, being the third-largest economy in Asia, has been able to defy the global downturn that has left several other economies, including China, faltering. India’s services sector, which accounts for more than half of its economic output, has had strong growth.

For the longest period since August 2011, the S&amp;P Global India services Purchasing Managers’ Index has been consistently over the 50-point threshold distinguishing growth from contraction for almost two years.

The Indian government has been putting more money toward infrastructure each year to stimulate growth. India spent roughly 28 per cent of its 10 trillion Indian rupee ($120.91 billion) capital expenditure budget in the first three months of the fiscal year, which began on April 1.

Kaushik Das, chief economist for India at Deutsche Bank, said that a 3 per cent drop in wholesale prices will also boost the nation's strong headline growth by lowering the “GDP deflator,” which is used to estimate real economic growth by excluding price increases.

Setbacks ahead&nbsp;

According to economists, the price effect may change in the upcoming months, and growth may slow.

August has been unusually dry after above average rainfall in July, which has driven up the cost of basic foods and reduced discretionary expenditure.

In India’s hinterlands, where agriculture provides the majority of the country’s income, dry weather could also reduce agricultural productivity and weaken the influence of the locals.

A comparison to higher growth rates from a year ago as well as slowing exports and global growth will also have an impact on future quarters’ growth.

Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, stated that there is some evidence that the activity is decreasing sequentially. “The market as a whole believes that things will slow down.”

(With inputs from Reuters)

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India’s economy expanded at its quickest rate in a year in the April-June quarter, data is expected to indicate on Thursday. Meanwhile, economists foresee a slowdown.

India’s economy expanded at its quickest rate in a year in the April-June quarter, data is expected to indicate on Thursday. Meanwhile, economists foresee a slowdown. The median projection of economists surveyed by Reuters indicates that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 7.7 per cent in the most recent quarter, which is faster growth than the country experienced in the April to June quarter in 2022. According to economists, falling commodity costs have allowed for manufacturers to raise profits and somewhat offset the 250-basis point increase in interest rates since May 2022. India, being the third-largest economy in Asia, has been able to defy the global downturn that has left several other economies, including China, faltering. India’s services sector, which accounts for more than half of its economic output, has had strong growth. For the longest period since August 2011, the S&P Global India services Purchasing Managers’ Index has been consistently over the 50-point threshold distinguishing growth from contraction for almost two years. The Indian government has been putting more money toward infrastructure each year to stimulate growth. India spent roughly 28 per cent of its 10 trillion Indian rupee ($120.91 billion) capital expenditure budget in the first three months of the fiscal year, which began on April 1. Kaushik Das, chief economist for India at Deutsche Bank, said that a 3 per cent drop in wholesale prices will also boost the nation's strong headline growth by lowering the “GDP deflator,” which is used to estimate real economic growth by excluding price increases. Setbacks ahead According to economists, the price effect may change in the upcoming months, and growth may slow. August has been unusually dry after above average rainfall in July, which has driven up the cost of basic foods and reduced discretionary expenditure. In India’s hinterlands, where agriculture provides the majority of the country’s income, dry weather could also reduce agricultural productivity and weaken the influence of the locals. A comparison to higher growth rates from a year ago as well as slowing exports and global growth will also have an impact on future quarters’ growth. Rahul Bajoria, an economist at Barclays, stated that there is some evidence that the activity is decreasing sequentially. “The market as a whole believes that things will slow down.” (With inputs from Reuters) WATCH WION LIVE HERE

India’s economy is expected to expand at its fastest rate in a year: Estimates

In the grand global population race, India has emerged as the frontrunner, boasting a colossal population of 1,428 million people, just edging past China's 1,425 million. It's a neck-and-neck population contest, but when you peek at their economic narratives, a contrasting tale unfolds.

As per the most recent World Bank data from 2022, China's gross domestic product (GDP) looms large at 17.96 trillion USD, while India's registers at a comparatively modest 3.39 trillion USD. What's noteworthy is that this economic chasm is only growing wider.

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The graph above shows the widening gap in Gross domestic product (GDP) between China (in red)&nbsp;and India (in blue).&nbsp;

Rewinding to 1980, China and India's economic landscapes were very similar, with GDP numbers almost in lockstep. India even held a slight edge in GDP per capita over its much larger neighbour to the east. However, China embarked on a monumental journey, with its economy surging at an astonishing average rate of 10 per cent between 1980 and 2010, leaving India trailing far behind.

The reasons behind China's meteoric economic ascent are multifaceted. Yet, a pivotal factor lies in the increasing participation of women in China's workforce, adding an extra dimension to its growth story.

With male labour force participation nearly on par in <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.MA.ZS?locations=CN">China</a>&nbsp;(73 per cent as per 2022) and <a href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.MA.ZS?locations=IN">India</a>&nbsp;(74 per cent as per 2022), the divergence primarily stems from female involvement. In 2022, China boasted a robust 61 per cent female labour force participation rate, whereas India lagged significantly at just 24 per cent.

India can no longer attribute China's larger population as the sole rationale for its superior GDP. This prompts a crucial question: does this surplus of female labour participation truly underpin China's formidable GDP? Maybe, Yes.

“The high participation of women in the workforce in China is a combination of its socialist legacy and subsequent economic reforms and opening up after Mao Zedong's (Chinese communist leader and founder of the People's Republic of China) passing. The high level of investment by the state in human capital, education and health is one of the key achievements of Mao era (1949-78). It also emerged from the socialist understanding that both men and women had to participate in labour - starting from agricultural production,” Dr Anand P. Krishnan, Fellow, Centre for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence, Delhi NCR, and Visiting Associate Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies in Delhi told WION.

Following initiatives to protect women's rights, including the marriage law passed after the People's Republic's establishment, Chinese women have enjoyed increased mobility and opportunities. This trend continued with economic reforms since the 1980s, leading to more women pursuing higher education and careers. Declining urban birth rates reduced childcare responsibilities, allowing women to delay starting families. Marriage rates have fallen as women prioritise careers, leading to a rise in female CEOs and a strong presence in retail and service industries. They are also increasing moving to heavy labour intensive sectors - like women constitute nearly 14-16 per cent of all construction workers, explains Dr Krishnan.

The recent dip in the female labour force participation rate to 61 per cent has also got the Party-state to come up with plans to address it. Such as a <a href="https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1008606">10-year plan for women's development</a>.

The Party-state is also intending to ask employers not to mention gender preferences in job advertisement, and also not ask women about their marital and pregnancy status.

“However, notwithstanding this, things are not rosy for women. With the removal of the one-child policy, with the Party-state incrementally raising it to two-child and now three-child, women are now forced to juggle with both work and childcare,” continues Dr Krishnan.

In a <a href="https://ceda.ashoka.edu.in/the-elephant-is-set-to-overtake-the-dragon-or-is-it/">study</a> titled ‘The Elephant is set to overtake the Dragon, or is it?,’ conducted by the Centre for Economic Data and Analysis (CEDA) under Ashoka University, there has been a revelation that further fortifies this argument. According to the&nbsp;research, as of 2021, China boasted approximately 478.3 million women aged 15-64, while India's count stood at 458.2 million women in the same age bracket — a disparity that seems slight. However, the female labour force participation rates for that year painted a strikingly different picture; China's workforce encompassed a formidable 338.6 million, whereas India's tally was a mere 112.8 million. So, even though India's working-age demographic group almost mirrored China's in size, but its labour force was noticeably smaller.

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*This is an interactive data chart. Click on the bars to get the figures*

<h2>When can we expect India to surpass China in terms of its labour force?</h2>

The study suggests that this won't occur in the near future, but there's a glimmer of hope. If we assume that the labour force participation rate (LFPR) remains constant at its most recent levels for both countries, it'll be approximately 27 years before this milestone is reached. It's only in 2051 that India is projected to outpace China in terms of labour force numbers, assuming all other factors remain unchanged. These projections are based on United Nations population estimates spanning up to the year 2100.

Now, if India's LFPR were to surge to 60 per cent, this shift could occur by 2040. However, for India's labour force to surpass China's in absolute numbers by 2030, India's LFPR would need to make a sharp jump from its current level, which hovers at around 58 per cent (based on the labour force participation rate by usual status for the 15-64 age group as estimated by the Periodic Labour Force Survey, 2021-22), to 71 per cent within the next seven years. Achieving such a significant improvement in such a short span of time seems highly unlikely.

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In the grand global population race, India has emerged as the frontrunner, boasting a colossal population of 1,428 million people, just edging past China's 1,425 million.

In the grand global population race, India has emerged as the frontrunner, boasting a colossal population of 1,428 million people, just edging past China's 1,425 million. It's a neck-and-neck population contest, but when you peek at their economic narratives, a contrasting tale unfolds. As per the most recent World Bank data from 2022, China's gross domestic product (GDP) looms large at 17.96 trillion USD, while India's registers at a comparatively modest 3.39 trillion USD. What's noteworthy is that this economic chasm is only growing wider. × The graph above shows the widening gap in Gross domestic product (GDP) between China (in red) and India (in blue). Rewinding to 1980, China and India's economic landscapes were very similar, with GDP numbers almost in lockstep. India even held a slight edge in GDP per capita over its much larger neighbour to the east. However, China embarked on a monumental journey, with its economy surging at an astonishing average rate of 10 per cent between 1980 and 2010, leaving India trailing far behind. The reasons behind China's meteoric economic ascent are multifaceted. Yet, a pivotal factor lies in the increasing participation of women in China's workforce, adding an extra dimension to its growth story. With male labour force participation nearly on par in China (73 per cent as per 2022) and India (74 per cent as per 2022), the divergence primarily stems from female involvement. In 2022, China boasted a robust 61 per cent female labour force participation rate, whereas India lagged significantly at just 24 per cent. India can no longer attribute China's larger population as the sole rationale for its superior GDP. This prompts a crucial question: does this surplus of female labour participation truly underpin China's formidable GDP? Maybe, Yes. “The high participation of women in the workforce in China is a combination of its socialist legacy and subsequent economic reforms and opening up after Mao Zedong's (Chinese communist leader and founder of the People's Republic of China) passing. The high level of investment by the state in human capital, education and health is one of the key achievements of Mao era (1949-78). It also emerged from the socialist understanding that both men and women had to participate in labour - starting from agricultural production,” Dr Anand P. Krishnan, Fellow, Centre for Himalayan Studies, Shiv Nadar Institution of Eminence, Delhi NCR, and Visiting Associate Fellow, Institute of Chinese Studies in Delhi told WION. Following initiatives to protect women's rights, including the marriage law passed after the People's Republic's establishment, Chinese women have enjoyed increased mobility and opportunities. This trend continued with economic reforms since the 1980s, leading to more women pursuing higher education and careers. Declining urban birth rates reduced childcare responsibilities, allowing women to delay starting families. Marriage rates have fallen as women prioritise careers, leading to a rise in female CEOs and a strong presence in retail and service industries. They are also increasing moving to heavy labour intensive sectors - like women constitute nearly 14-16 per cent of all construction workers, explains Dr Krishnan. The recent dip in the female labour force participation rate to 61 per cent has also got the Party-state to come up with plans to address it. Such as a 10-year plan for women's development. The Party-state is also intending to ask employers not to mention gender preferences in job advertisement, and also not ask women about their marital and pregnancy status. “However, notwithstanding this, things are not rosy for women. With the removal of the one-child policy, with the Party-state incrementally raising it to two-child and now three-child, women are now forced to juggle with both work and childcare,” continues Dr Krishnan. In a study titled ‘The Elephant is set to overtake the Dragon, or is it?,’ conducted by the Centre for Economic Data and Analysis (CEDA) under Ashoka University, there has been a revelation that further fortifies this argument. According to the research, as of 2021, China boasted approximately 478.3 million women aged 15-64, while India's count stood at 458.2 million women in the same age bracket — a disparity that seems slight. However, the female labour force participation rates for that year painted a strikingly different picture; China's workforce encompassed a formidable 338.6 million, whereas India's tally was a mere 112.8 million. So, even though India's working-age demographic group almost mirrored China's in size, but its labour force was noticeably smaller. × *This is an interactive data chart. Click on the bars to get the figures* When can we expect India to surpass China in terms of its labour force? The study suggests that this won't occur in the near future, but there's a glimmer of hope. If we assume that the labour force participation rate (LFPR) remains constant at its most recent levels for both countries, it'll be approximately 27 years before this milestone is reached. It's only in 2051 that India is projected to outpace China in terms of labour force numbers, assuming all other factors remain unchanged. These projections are based on United Nations population estimates spanning up to the year 2100. Now, if India's LFPR were to surge to 60 per cent, this shift could occur by 2040. However, for India's labour force to surpass China's in absolute numbers by 2030, India's LFPR would need to make a sharp jump from its current level, which hovers at around 58 per cent (based on the labour force participation rate by usual status for the 15-64 age group as estimated by the Periodic Labour Force Survey, 2021-22), to 71 per cent within the next seven years. Achieving such a significant improvement in such a short span of time seems highly unlikely. WATCH WION LIVE HERE:

Data Lab | Are China's women turbocharging its economy? Can India catch up?

The Indian hotel industry is expected to directly contribute $ 1 trillion to the country’s GDP by 2047, attributed to an&nbsp;increase in domestic tourism and international arrivals, a report said. According to the Hotel Association of India (HAI) and Benori Knowledge report, “Vision 2047: Indian Hotel Industry", the direct GDP contribution of the hotel industry was $40 billion in 2022 and is predicted to increase to $68 billion by 2027.

It also stated that it could reach $1 trillion by 2047. The association for the hotel industry said that, in order for the sector to reach its goal, growth must expand outside of metro areas into second- and third-tier cities as well as rural areas.

The report noted that the total contribution does take into account aspects of services from related business verticals, such as food and beverage and salons and spas, but does not take into account the expansion of the services market, eliminating scenario-based contribution estimations. The report says that variables including GDP growth, rising income levels, a rise in both domestic and international visitor arrivals&nbsp;are attributed to&nbsp;the predicted gain.

Domestic tourist visits are anticipated to rise from 677 million in 2021 to 1.5 billion by 2030 and then further to 15 billion by 2047 in the long term (2037-2047), according to the report. The survey noted that there would be 1.5 million international visitors arriving in India in 2021, 15 million by 2024, 25 million by 2030, and "are further projected to grow attracting 100 million tourists by 2047."

As per the report, all of these variables have opened up new prospects in the tourist and hospitality sectors. Technology, environmental and social sustainability, assistance from policymakers, and macroeconomic variables will all be significant, HAI Secretary General M P Bezbaruah told PTI.&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies)&nbsp;

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The Indian hotel industry is expected to directly contribute $ 1 trillion to the country’s GDP by 2047, attributed to an increase in domestic tourism and international arrivals, a report said.

The Indian hotel industry is expected to directly contribute $ 1 trillion to the country’s GDP by 2047, attributed to an increase in domestic tourism and international arrivals, a report said. According to the Hotel Association of India (HAI) and Benori Knowledge report, “Vision 2047: Indian Hotel Industry", the direct GDP contribution of the hotel industry was $40 billion in 2022 and is predicted to increase to $68 billion by 2027. It also stated that it could reach $1 trillion by 2047. The association for the hotel industry said that, in order for the sector to reach its goal, growth must expand outside of metro areas into second- and third-tier cities as well as rural areas. The report noted that the total contribution does take into account aspects of services from related business verticals, such as food and beverage and salons and spas, but does not take into account the expansion of the services market, eliminating scenario-based contribution estimations. The report says that variables including GDP growth, rising income levels, a rise in both domestic and international visitor arrivals are attributed to the predicted gain. Domestic tourist visits are anticipated to rise from 677 million in 2021 to 1.5 billion by 2030 and then further to 15 billion by 2047 in the long term (2037-2047), according to the report. The survey noted that there would be 1.5 million international visitors arriving in India in 2021, 15 million by 2024, 25 million by 2030, and "are further projected to grow attracting 100 million tourists by 2047." As per the report, all of these variables have opened up new prospects in the tourist and hospitality sectors. Technology, environmental and social sustainability, assistance from policymakers, and macroeconomic variables will all be significant, HAI Secretary General M P Bezbaruah told PTI. (With inputs from agencies) WATCH WION LIVE HERE

Hotel industry projected to contribute $1 trillion to India’s GDP by 2047: Report 

The Indian economy is expected to grow by an average annual rate of 6.7 per cent to March 2031, according to a forecast by S&amp;P Global on Thursday. Despite short-term challenges from rate hikes and a global slowdown, growth led by manufacturing and service exports and consumer demand has been projected.

Reuters quoted S&amp;P Global&nbsp;report&nbsp;as saying, "While the world is in the midst of an unprecedented period of transition and uncertainty, India faces a defining opportunity to capitalise on this moment."&nbsp;

India could possibly overtake Japan and China and become the world’s third largest economy, if S&amp;P Global’s forecast of the per capita GDP rising to $4,500 is realised. According to the rating agency, India's economy is expected to reach $6.7 trillion in 2031 from $3.4 trillion in 2023.

According to the report, with the government providing incentives to firms and improving infrastructure, India is all set to attract new opportunities in manufacturing.&nbsp;

The economy is expected to gain from tax reforms that will increase efficiency, from state support for physical and digital infrastructure, and from a decrease in leakages from government subsidy payments.

Due to rising household incomes and increased expenditure on food and other commodities, the Indian consumer market would more than double by 2031, rising to $5.2 trillion from $2.3 trillion in 2023.

“Higher per capita incomes will also likely boost discretionary spending in areas such as entertainment, communications, restaurants and hotels," Reuters quoted the report as saying.&nbsp;

S&amp;P Global stated that in addition to expanding female participation in the workforce to enjoy a demographic dividend, creating a strong logistics framework will be essential in re-orienting&nbsp;India’s economy towards manufacturing.&nbsp;

An addition of 30 million jobs expected by 2030 as India’s construction sector booms: Knight Frank

The construction sector in India could add about 30 million jobs by 2030 as the urban housing demand and state spending on infrastructure including roads increases, as per an industry report released on Thursday.

Construction, India’s second-largest sector after agriculture, is seeing an increase in investment interest due to improved business sentiment and conductive policy measures, realty consultant&nbsp;Knight Frank said.&nbsp;

“We are seeing a surge in real-estate demand in the top eight cities as well as in smaller towns, driven by rising household incomes and global service providers who are outsourcing to India," Gulam Zia, executive director of Knight Frank, said.

As per Knight Frank's projections,&nbsp;India’s construction industry will contribute nearly one-fifth to the&nbsp;GDP by 2030 and support 100 million jobs.

According to the report, construction companies are anticipated to increase employment opportunities for 10.5 million skilled individuals, approximately 80 million semi-skilled workers, 1.1 million engineers, 1.5 million technicians, and a million office workers.

According to the realty consultant, the real estate sector's annual turnover is likely to&nbsp;increase to $1 trillion by 2030.

(With inputs from Reuters)

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According to the Frank Knight report, presently only about 50 per cent of the graduating civil engineers remain in the sector as they find it difficult to meet the requirements of the industry and can find employment elsewhere.

(With inputs from Reuters)

The Indian economy is expected to grow by an average annual rate of 6.7 per cent to March 2031, according to a forecast by S&P Global on Thursday. Despite short-term challenges from rate hikes and a global slowdown, growth led by manufacturing and service exports and consumer demand has been projected.

The Indian economy is expected to grow by an average annual rate of 6.7 per cent to March 2031, according to a forecast by S&P Global on Thursday. Despite short-term challenges from rate hikes and a global slowdown, growth led by manufacturing and service exports and consumer demand has been projected. Reuters quoted S&P Global report as saying, "While the world is in the midst of an unprecedented period of transition and uncertainty, India faces a defining opportunity to capitalise on this moment." India could possibly overtake Japan and China and become the world’s third largest economy, if S&P Global’s forecast of the per capita GDP rising to $4,500 is realised. According to the rating agency, India's economy is expected to reach $6.7 trillion in 2031 from $3.4 trillion in 2023. According to the report, with the government providing incentives to firms and improving infrastructure, India is all set to attract new opportunities in manufacturing. The economy is expected to gain from tax reforms that will increase efficiency, from state support for physical and digital infrastructure, and from a decrease in leakages from government subsidy payments. Due to rising household incomes and increased expenditure on food and other commodities, the Indian consumer market would more than double by 2031, rising to $5.2 trillion from $2.3 trillion in 2023. “Higher per capita incomes will also likely boost discretionary spending in areas such as entertainment, communications, restaurants and hotels," Reuters quoted the report as saying. S&P Global stated that in addition to expanding female participation in the workforce to enjoy a demographic dividend, creating a strong logistics framework will be essential in re-orienting India’s economy towards manufacturing. An addition of 30 million jobs expected by 2030 as India’s construction sector booms: Knight Frank The construction sector in India could add about 30 million jobs by 2030 as the urban housing demand and state spending on infrastructure including roads increases, as per an industry report released on Thursday. Construction, India’s second-largest sector after agriculture, is seeing an increase in investment interest due to improved business sentiment and conductive policy measures, realty consultant Knight Frank said. “We are seeing a surge in real-estate demand in the top eight cities as well as in smaller towns, driven by rising household incomes and global service providers who are outsourcing to India," Gulam Zia, executive director of Knight Frank, said. As per Knight Frank's projections, India’s construction industry will contribute nearly one-fifth to the GDP by 2030 and support 100 million jobs. According to the report, construction companies are anticipated to increase employment opportunities for 10.5 million skilled individuals, approximately 80 million semi-skilled workers, 1.1 million engineers, 1.5 million technicians, and a million office workers. According to the realty consultant, the real estate sector's annual turnover is likely to increase to $1 trillion by 2030. (With inputs from Reuters) WATCH WION LIVE HERE According to the Frank Knight report, presently only about 50 per cent of the graduating civil engineers remain in the sector as they find it difficult to meet the requirements of the industry and can find employment elsewhere. (With inputs from Reuters)

India projected to grow at an annual rate of 6.7% through 2031: S&P Global

Amid the global economic gloom, the euro zone has begun to grow again as inflation continues to cool down. Latest data shows that euro zone's gross domestic product rose by 0.3% between April and June, compared with the January to march quarter, when the economy had stagnated. Moreover, the GDP had fallen by 0.1% in the last three months of 2022. Euro zone's inflation continued to fall in July. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the euro zone fell to 5.3%, down from 5.5% in June.

Euro zone grows 0.3% in April-June quarter | World Business Watch

A research report projects that India’s average income is to rise by 70 per cent to $4,000 by fiscal year 2030 from $2,450 in fiscal year 2023. This will make India a middle-income economy with a $6 trillion gross domestic product (GDP) with about half coming from household consumption.

The per capita income/GDP has increased from $460 in fiscal year 2001 to $1,413 in fiscal year 2011 and then to $2,150 in fiscal year 2021.

According to a weekend report by Standard Chartered Bank, the nominal GDP is forecast to grow by 10 per cent annually. The main growth driver is external trade, which may double to $2.1 trillion by 2030 from $1.2 trillion in fiscal year 2023.

Household consumption is said to be the second-biggest growth driver, according to the report. By fiscal year 2030, consumption is expected to jump from the present $2.1 trillion to $3.4 trillion, which is as big as the GDP for fiscal year 2023.

In a statement made last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that he would ensure that India's economy is brought to $5 trillion during his next term in office, making it the third-largest behind the US and China. Japan is now ranked third, while Germany is fourth.

The report predicts that nine states, rather than just one, will eventually reach the upper middle-income country category with a per capita income of $4,000 or more. Telangana currently holds the top spot in the league table for per capita income, with Rs 2,75,443 ($3,360) in FY23. Karnataka is next with Rs 2,65,623, Tamil Nadu with Rs 2,41,131, Kerala with Rs 2,30,601, and Andhra Pradesh with Rs 2,07,771.

Telangana, Delhi, Karnataka, Haryana, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh together make up 20 per cent of the country’s GDP now, and by fiscal 2030, each of these states will have a per-capita GDP of $6,000 or more.

However, big states like UP and Bihar, which together account for 25 per cent of the population, will still have per capita income below $2,000 in fiscal year 2030.

The consumer market will still be the same size as the economy today even if household consumption expenditures fall by 1% from their current proportion of GDP, which accounts for 57 per cent of the GDP.

The large percentage of people who are of working age will continue to be primary growth enablers. In 2020, 64.2 per cent of the population in the country was of working age. This percentage will increase to 64.8 per cent, but it could also slightly decline to 63.6 percent in 2040 and 61.1 percent in 2050.

As a result, the economy will gain from increased capital investment, labour productivity, and the population growth of those who are working age. However, a continually declining employment rate is a barrier to the expansion of real GDP per capita.

Other growth accelerators mentioned in the paper include macro stability, a sound financial system, corporate sector deleveraging, and public capex initiatives.

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A research report projects that India’s average income is to rise by 70 per cent to $4,000 by fiscal year 2030 from $2,450 in fiscal year 2023. This will make India a middle-income economy with a $6 trillion gross domestic product (GDP) with about half coming from household consumption.

A research report projects that India’s average income is to rise by 70 per cent to $4,000 by fiscal year 2030 from $2,450 in fiscal year 2023. This will make India a middle-income economy with a $6 trillion gross domestic product (GDP) with about half coming from household consumption. The per capita income/GDP has increased from $460 in fiscal year 2001 to $1,413 in fiscal year 2011 and then to $2,150 in fiscal year 2021. According to a weekend report by Standard Chartered Bank, the nominal GDP is forecast to grow by 10 per cent annually. The main growth driver is external trade, which may double to $2.1 trillion by 2030 from $1.2 trillion in fiscal year 2023. Household consumption is said to be the second-biggest growth driver, according to the report. By fiscal year 2030, consumption is expected to jump from the present $2.1 trillion to $3.4 trillion, which is as big as the GDP for fiscal year 2023. In a statement made last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that he would ensure that India's economy is brought to $5 trillion during his next term in office, making it the third-largest behind the US and China. Japan is now ranked third, while Germany is fourth. The report predicts that nine states, rather than just one, will eventually reach the upper middle-income country category with a per capita income of $4,000 or more. Telangana currently holds the top spot in the league table for per capita income, with Rs 2,75,443 ($3,360) in FY23. Karnataka is next with Rs 2,65,623, Tamil Nadu with Rs 2,41,131, Kerala with Rs 2,30,601, and Andhra Pradesh with Rs 2,07,771. Telangana, Delhi, Karnataka, Haryana, Gujarat, and Andhra Pradesh together make up 20 per cent of the country’s GDP now, and by fiscal 2030, each of these states will have a per-capita GDP of $6,000 or more. However, big states like UP and Bihar, which together account for 25 per cent of the population, will still have per capita income below $2,000 in fiscal year 2030. The consumer market will still be the same size as the economy today even if household consumption expenditures fall by 1% from their current proportion of GDP, which accounts for 57 per cent of the GDP. The large percentage of people who are of working age will continue to be primary growth enablers. In 2020, 64.2 per cent of the population in the country was of working age. This percentage will increase to 64.8 per cent, but it could also slightly decline to 63.6 percent in 2040 and 61.1 percent in 2050. As a result, the economy will gain from increased capital investment, labour productivity, and the population growth of those who are working age. However, a continually declining employment rate is a barrier to the expansion of real GDP per capita. Other growth accelerators mentioned in the paper include macro stability, a sound financial system, corporate sector deleveraging, and public capex initiatives. WATCH WION LIVE HERE

India’s average income projected to increase by 70% to $4,000 by FY30: Report

The Chinese economy appears to be hitting a bit of a rough path with concerns rising about its future trajectory. Renowned economists have now sounded the alarm drawing comparisons to Japan's economic decline or stagnation that began in the 1990s. The question is will China's economy also witness a period of stagnation an expert gets more details.

India's economic ascents as China's stumbles leaving economists concerned

UK's total government debt has crossed 100% of the GDP for the first time since 1961. The rise in total debt is largely due to the government borrowing more than doubling in recent times. Government figures show that the total debt stands at $3.28 trillion in May this translates to 100.1% of the total UK GDP.

UK's debt crosses 100% of GDP for the first time since 1961

Cash-strapped Pakistan's economy is in the doldrums and data from the country's economic survey a day before the country's budget proves that fact. In fact, the country's economy failed to achieve any of the targets it set out in 2022-23. Pakistan's GDP growth rate crashed to 0.3% in 2022-23.

Pakistan Economic Survey: GDP growth misses 5% target, grows by 0.3% in 2022-23

Cash strapped Pakistan's economy is in doldrums and data from the country's economic survey a day before the country's budget proves that fact. In fact, the country's economy failed to achieve any of the target its set out in 2022-23. Pakistan's GDP growth rate crashed to 0.3% in 2022-23.

Pakistan: GDP growth misses 5% target

Tunisia and Egypt are on the brink of major debt crises, with Tunisia facing a political crisis and uncertainty over IMF support. Egypt's debt-to-GDP ratio is reaching critical levels, compounded by currency devaluations and dwindling reserves. The countries' fiscal strains could have far-reaching consequences for the region. The involvement of gulf allies and the potential impact on global financial markets further intensify the gravity of the situation.

Drowning in debt: North Africa braces for impact

China's gross domestic product (GDP) expanded 4.5 percent in the first quarter of the year 2023, boosted by increased consumption and retail sales.

China's GDP jumps 4.5% in Q1 as consumption, retail sales grow

The European Commission (EC), on Monday (February 13), raised its growth forecast for the eurozone this year and also expects inflation to be lower than previously estimated at the end of 2022. The expected GDP for the eurozone was raised by 0.9 per cent which was up from the previously predicted 0.3 per cent. Additionally, the eurozone might also dodge recession this year after high levels of gas storage helped ease the energy crisis and labour markets continue to hold up, said the EC.&nbsp;

The EU’s executive arm released the new winter forecasts which show that the 20 countries which use the euro referred to as the ‘eurozone’ will narrowly avoid the technical recession which was expected last year in November as the growth since was 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter. Furthermore, the wider European Union is expected to grow by 0.8 per cent from the previously predicted 0.3 per cent, said the EC.&nbsp;

“Almost one year after Russia launched its war of aggression against Ukraine, the EU economy is on a better footing than expected in autumn”, said the commission, on Monday. They added, “Inflation appears to have peaked and favourable developments in energy markets foreshadow further forceful declines.”

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/eurozone-inflation-hits-record-as-gas-crunch-looms-493665">Eurozone inflation hits record, as gas crunch looms</a>

This also comes as the wholesale gas prices have fallen “below pre-war levels” which has been attributed to the above-seasonal average levels of gas storage. The commission also said that the “forecast crucially hinges on the purely technical assumption that Russia's aggression of Ukraine will not escalate”.&nbsp;

Furthermore, the EU executive arm in Brussels while announcing the forecast said, “Both areas are now set to narrowly avoid the technical recession that was anticipated for the turn of the year. The forecast also slightly lowers the projections for inflation for both 2023 and 2024.” Notably, the growth forecast for 2024 remains unchanged with 1.5 per cent for the eurozone and 1.6 per cent for the EU.&nbsp;

The estimates also show that all EU states are expected to witness growth this year except Sweden which might contract by 0.8 per cent as the country is also facing a recession along with Denmark. Whereas, Germany the region’s biggest economy and Austria have also witnessed two consecutive quarters of contraction making them the only two eurozone countries which are facing this phenomenon. &nbsp; 
 
ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/global-economy-faces-tough-time-in-2023-says-imf-head-548634">Third of global economy to face recession in 2023, warns IMF head</a>

<div class="ui-state-default" contenteditable="false">
<div class="twitter-block" draggable="false">
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
Growth forecast for 2023 (%): 
 
🇮🇪 4.9 
🇲🇹 3.1 
🇷🇴 2.5 
🇱🇺 1.7 
🇨🇾 1.6 
🇸🇰 1.5 
🇪🇸 1.4 
🇧🇬 1.4 
🇬🇷 1.2 
🇭🇷 1.2 
🇸🇮 1.0 
🇵🇹 1.0 
🇳🇱 0.9 
🇧🇪 0.8 
🇮🇹 0.8 
🇪🇺 0.8 
🇫🇷 0.6 
🇭🇺 0.6 
🇦🇹 0.5 
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🇱🇹 0.3 
🇩🇪 0.2 
🇫🇮 0.2 
🇨🇿 0.1 
🇪🇪 0.1 
🇱🇻 0.1 
🇩🇰 0.1 
🇸🇪 -0.8 
 
Winter <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ECForecast?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ECForecast</a> ↓
— European Commission 🇪🇺 (@EU_Commission) <a href="https://twitter.com/EU_Commission/status/1625058425716588548?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 13, 2023</a></blockquote>
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However, the commission has also said there is high uncertainty surrounding the forecast but the risks to growth are now broadly balanced. This could be due to a rise in domestic demand and if the “recent declines in wholesale gas prices pass through to consumer prices more strongly and consumption proves more resilient”, said the EC.&nbsp;

It added, “Nonetheless, a potential reversal of that fall cannot be ruled out in the context of continued geopolitical tensions”. Additionally, the Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni also cautioned that “better than expected doesn’t mean good,” and said Europe continues to face a difficult period of slow growth and only a gradual easing in inflation.

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/explained-imf-lifts-2023-global-growth-forecast-in-world-economic-outlook-updated-report-557556">Explained: IMF lifts 2023 global growth forecast in World Economic Outlook updated report</a>

Additionally, households and businesses in Europe continue to face high power bills, as core inflation with the exception of energy and unprocessed food is still affecting consumers’ purchasing power, said the commission.&nbsp;

This could signal further raises in interest rates by the European Central Bank, addressing which the commissioner said, “There are of course consequences of the tightening of monetary policy, but…there is the very positive aspect of this tightening, which is the contribution to reducing inflation, so overall I think this is balanced”.&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies)&nbsp; 
 
&nbsp;

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The European Commission (EC), on Monday (February 13), raised its growth forecast for the eurozone this year and also expects inflation to be lower than previously estimated at the end of 2022.

The European Commission (EC), on Monday (February 13), raised its growth forecast for the eurozone this year and also expects inflation to be lower than previously estimated at the end of 2022. The expected GDP for the eurozone was raised by 0.9 per cent which was up from the previously predicted 0.3 per cent. Additionally, the eurozone might also dodge recession this year after high levels of gas storage helped ease the energy crisis and labour markets continue to hold up, said the EC. The EU’s executive arm released the new winter forecasts which show that the 20 countries which use the euro referred to as the ‘eurozone’ will narrowly avoid the technical recession which was expected last year in November as the growth since was 0.1 per cent quarter-on-quarter. Furthermore, the wider European Union is expected to grow by 0.8 per cent from the previously predicted 0.3 per cent, said the EC. “Almost one year after Russia launched its war of aggression against Ukraine, the EU economy is on a better footing than expected in autumn”, said the commission, on Monday. They added, “Inflation appears to have peaked and favourable developments in energy markets foreshadow further forceful declines.” ALSO READ | Eurozone inflation hits record, as gas crunch looms This also comes as the wholesale gas prices have fallen “below pre-war levels” which has been attributed to the above-seasonal average levels of gas storage. The commission also said that the “forecast crucially hinges on the purely technical assumption that Russia's aggression of Ukraine will not escalate”. Furthermore, the EU executive arm in Brussels while announcing the forecast said, “Both areas are now set to narrowly avoid the technical recession that was anticipated for the turn of the year. The forecast also slightly lowers the projections for inflation for both 2023 and 2024.” Notably, the growth forecast for 2024 remains unchanged with 1.5 per cent for the eurozone and 1.6 per cent for the EU. The estimates also show that all EU states are expected to witness growth this year except Sweden which might contract by 0.8 per cent as the country is also facing a recession along with Denmark. Whereas, Germany the region’s biggest economy and Austria have also witnessed two consecutive quarters of contraction making them the only two eurozone countries which are facing this phenomenon. ALSO READ | Third of global economy to face recession in 2023, warns IMF head Growth forecast for 2023 (%): 🇮🇪 4.9 🇲🇹 3.1 🇷🇴 2.5 🇱🇺 1.7 🇨🇾 1.6 🇸🇰 1.5 🇪🇸 1.4 🇧🇬 1.4 🇬🇷 1.2 🇭🇷 1.2 🇸🇮 1.0 🇵🇹 1.0 🇳🇱 0.9 🇧🇪 0.8 🇮🇹 0.8 🇪🇺 0.8 🇫🇷 0.6 🇭🇺 0.6 🇦🇹 0.5 🇵🇱 0.4 🇱🇹 0.3 🇩🇪 0.2 🇫🇮 0.2 🇨🇿 0.1 🇪🇪 0.1 🇱🇻 0.1 🇩🇰 0.1 🇸🇪 -0.8 Winter #ECForecast ↓ — European Commission 🇪🇺 (@EU_Commission) February 13, 2023 × However, the commission has also said there is high uncertainty surrounding the forecast but the risks to growth are now broadly balanced. This could be due to a rise in domestic demand and if the “recent declines in wholesale gas prices pass through to consumer prices more strongly and consumption proves more resilient”, said the EC. It added, “Nonetheless, a potential reversal of that fall cannot be ruled out in the context of continued geopolitical tensions”. Additionally, the Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni also cautioned that “better than expected doesn’t mean good,” and said Europe continues to face a difficult period of slow growth and only a gradual easing in inflation. ALSO READ | Explained: IMF lifts 2023 global growth forecast in World Economic Outlook updated report Additionally, households and businesses in Europe continue to face high power bills, as core inflation with the exception of energy and unprocessed food is still affecting consumers’ purchasing power, said the commission. This could signal further raises in interest rates by the European Central Bank, addressing which the commissioner said, “There are of course consequences of the tightening of monetary policy, but…there is the very positive aspect of this tightening, which is the contribution to reducing inflation, so overall I think this is balanced”. (With inputs from agencies) WATCH WION LIVE HERE You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here.

European Commission raises eurozone growth forecast for 2023 as inflation eases

The government poll is likely to report that growth is expected to be 6.5% for 2023–2024 under the base case, the unnamed source said, declining to be identified because the information was private. In three years, this would be the slowest. According to the source, nominal growth will probably be predicted at 11% for 2023–2024.

India: Economic survey to show 6.5% GDP growth likely in 2023-24

The jobless rate in Indian cities swell to 10.1 percent in December despite the country being touted as a bright spot amid growing recession affairs in Europe, the United States and other major economies.

Despite healthy GDP prospects, the jobless rate high in India

The World Bank has forecast Pakistan's economic growth to slow further to two percent during the current year — down by two percentage points from its June 2022 estimates — because of the devastating floods and slowdown in the global growth rate.

World Business Watch: World bank cuts Pakistan's GDP growth forecast

An unexpected growth was registered in the economy of the UK in November as people splurged during the World Cup, stated official data on Friday as analysts warned the country may still face recession because of a crisis due to the high cost of living.&nbsp;

The Office for National Statistics (ONS), issued a statement, saying that even after several strikes, the country’s gross domestic product increased by 0.1 per cent in November. The ONS said that restaurants and pubs majorly boosted the economy as people visited places to watch football matches.

From October, the growth had slowed sharply, partly because of the workers’ strike. ONS’ director of economic statistics Darren Morgan, while speaking to BBC, said, “We definitely saw the impact of industrial action in today's figures.”

ALSO READ|&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/uks-economy-shrinks-more-than-previously-thought-in-third-quarter-data-545630">UK's economy shrinks more than previously thought in third quarter: Data</a>

“We saw reasonably large falls in rail transport, postal work and warehousing and this sector had the biggest drag on the economy in November,” he added.

“The economy grew a little in November, with increases in telecommunications and computer programming helping to push the economy forward. Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games,” Morgan said.

ONS further said that the UK economy declined by 0.3 per cent in the last three months, in comparison to the three-month period starting from August.

"Over the last three months ... the economy still shrank -- mainly due to the impact of the extra bank holiday for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September," Morgan stated.

The UK government as well as the Bank of England believe that the economy is already facing recession due to rocketing inflation.&nbsp;

WATCH | World Business Watch | UK economy bounces back after two months of recession

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Analyst Sophie Lund-Yates warned, "On a three-monthly basis, the UK still shrank, and a 0.1-per cent gain on a monthly basis smells heavily of stagnation, rather than real growth. The idea that the UK will formally enter a recession soon is still very much a likelihood.”

"The boost in November could stem from extra spending in the economy in the run up to Christmas, and there's real risk now that consumers are going to tighten their belts,” the analyst added.

Commenting on the UK economy’s crisis, CBI economist Alpesh Paleja said, "High inflation is severely impacting household budgets and businesses are facing intense cost pressures. As a result, consumer spending and investment plans are weakening. The question for the government now is not whether we will fall into recession, but how long and deep the recession will be."&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies) 
&nbsp;

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An unexpected growth was registered in the economy of the UK in November as people splurged during the World Cup, stated official data on Friday as analysts warned the country may still face recession because of a crisis due to the high cost of living.

An unexpected growth was registered in the economy of the UK in November as people splurged during the World Cup, stated official data on Friday as analysts warned the country may still face recession because of a crisis due to the high cost of living. The Office for National Statistics (ONS), issued a statement, saying that even after several strikes, the country’s gross domestic product increased by 0.1 per cent in November. The ONS said that restaurants and pubs majorly boosted the economy as people visited places to watch football matches. From October, the growth had slowed sharply, partly because of the workers’ strike. ONS’ director of economic statistics Darren Morgan, while speaking to BBC, said, “We definitely saw the impact of industrial action in today's figures.” ALSO READ| UK's economy shrinks more than previously thought in third quarter: Data “We saw reasonably large falls in rail transport, postal work and warehousing and this sector had the biggest drag on the economy in November,” he added. “The economy grew a little in November, with increases in telecommunications and computer programming helping to push the economy forward. Pubs and bars also did well as people went out to watch World Cup games,” Morgan said. ONS further said that the UK economy declined by 0.3 per cent in the last three months, in comparison to the three-month period starting from August. "Over the last three months ... the economy still shrank -- mainly due to the impact of the extra bank holiday for the funeral of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth in September," Morgan stated. The UK government as well as the Bank of England believe that the economy is already facing recession due to rocketing inflation. WATCH | World Business Watch | UK economy bounces back after two months of recession Analyst Sophie Lund-Yates warned, "On a three-monthly basis, the UK still shrank, and a 0.1-per cent gain on a monthly basis smells heavily of stagnation, rather than real growth. The idea that the UK will formally enter a recession soon is still very much a likelihood.” "The boost in November could stem from extra spending in the economy in the run up to Christmas, and there's real risk now that consumers are going to tighten their belts,” the analyst added. Commenting on the UK economy’s crisis, CBI economist Alpesh Paleja said, "High inflation is severely impacting household budgets and businesses are facing intense cost pressures. As a result, consumer spending and investment plans are weakening. The question for the government now is not whether we will fall into recession, but how long and deep the recession will be." (With inputs from agencies)

UK economy registers 0.1 per cent increase in November; still, recession looms

The World Bank has cut the global growth forecast for 2023 to 1.7 per cent from 2.9 per cent, while issuing a warning that the world is at risk of a recession.

It has cut growth estimates of almost every developed country and nearly 70 per cent of emerging and developing countries.

The Washington-based institution has cited a combination of factors like high inflation, rising interest rates, lower investment and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine&nbsp;as threats to growth, apart from China’s Covid-related disruptions and stress in its real-estate sector, for lowering its estimate.

“Global growth has slowed to the extent that the global economy is perilously close to falling into recession,” the World Bank said in its latest report.

It further warned that any fresh setback, such as escalating global tensions, high inflation, rising interest rate, could further derail the global economy and could result in a second recession in three years.

The World Bank forecasts US GDP to grow 0.5 per cent compared to last year, and expects now growth for the European bloc.

<h2>Gravitas: IMF: Global economy faces a tougher year</h2>

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It predicts China’s GDP to grow 4.3 per cent in 2023, an uptick from 2.7 per cent growth last year.

The Russian economy is expected to contract 3.3 per cent in 2023 from 3.5 per cent last year, as sanctions will take a toll on spending and investment, the bank said.

The bank called for a “major increase” in investment for developing nations, including new financing from the international community and from the repurposing of existing spending, such as inefficient agricultural and fuel subsidies.

“Even though the world is now in a very tight spot, there should be no room for defeatism,” &nbsp;David Malpass, president of the World Bank, said.

“There are significant reforms that could be undertaken now to strengthen the rule of law, improve the outlook and build stronger economies with more robust private sectors and better opportunities for people.”

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The World Bank has cut the global growth forecast for 2023 to 1.7 per cent from 2.9 per cent, while issuing a warning that the world is at risk of a recession. It has cut growth estimates of almost every developed country and nearly 70 per cent of emerging and developing countries.

The World Bank has cut the global growth forecast for 2023 to 1.7 per cent from 2.9 per cent, while issuing a warning that the world is at risk of a recession. It has cut growth estimates of almost every developed country and nearly 70 per cent of emerging and developing countries. The Washington-based institution has cited a combination of factors like high inflation, rising interest rates, lower investment and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as threats to growth, apart from China’s Covid-related disruptions and stress in its real-estate sector, for lowering its estimate. “Global growth has slowed to the extent that the global economy is perilously close to falling into recession,” the World Bank said in its latest report. It further warned that any fresh setback, such as escalating global tensions, high inflation, rising interest rate, could further derail the global economy and could result in a second recession in three years. The World Bank forecasts US GDP to grow 0.5 per cent compared to last year, and expects now growth for the European bloc. Gravitas: IMF: Global economy faces a tougher year It predicts China’s GDP to grow 4.3 per cent in 2023, an uptick from 2.7 per cent growth last year. The Russian economy is expected to contract 3.3 per cent in 2023 from 3.5 per cent last year, as sanctions will take a toll on spending and investment, the bank said. The bank called for a “major increase” in investment for developing nations, including new financing from the international community and from the repurposing of existing spending, such as inefficient agricultural and fuel subsidies. “Even though the world is now in a very tight spot, there should be no room for defeatism,” David Malpass, president of the World Bank, said. “There are significant reforms that could be undertaken now to strengthen the rule of law, improve the outlook and build stronger economies with more robust private sectors and better opportunities for people.” WATCH WION LIVE HERE:

‘Perilously close to falling into recession’: World Bank cuts 2023 global growth to 1.7%

Hit by weakening demand, the Indian economy is expected to grow at a slower 7 per cent rate in the current fiscal ending March 2023, setting the stage for the country losing the fastest-growing major economy tag.&nbsp;The 7 per cent expansion projected in the first official estimate released by the Statistics Ministry compares with 8.7 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021-22.

The projections are much lower than government’s earlier forecast of 8-8.5 per cent growth but above the Reserve Bank’s projection of 6.8 per cent. If the forecast comes true, India’s GDP growth will be lower than Saudi Arabia’s expected 7.6 per cent expansion.

In fact, India’s GDP growth in the July-September quarter at 6.3 per cent was lower than the 8.7 per cent of Saudi Arabia.

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/watch-mesmerising-view-of-train-passing-through-snow-covered-jammu-and-kashmir-550130">Mesmerising view of train passing through snow-covered Jammu and Kashmir</a>

The first advance GDP estimates, which are used to work out allocations and other fiscal projections for the next Budget due on February 1, proved to be more optimistic than the actual growth in three out of the last four years.

The projections suggest that despite the global headwinds and continued geopolitical uncertainty caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the recovery is on track though there are pressure points. Inflation has been sticky despite a 225 basis points increase in interest rates since last May, which is likely to moderate demand.

“We believe that buoyant albeit mixed domestic consumption should help to stave off some of the pain arising from weak exports during this period,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Ltd.

“Given the full-year projections released today by the NSO, we expect there to be some revisions in either the H1 or the H2 FY2023 sectoral numbers, in the subsequent data releases.” Sunil Sinha, Senior Director and Principal Economist, India Ratings &amp; Research, said the road ahead is not going to be easy so long as private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) does not recover fully and become broad-based.

“The household sector, which accounts for 44-45 per cent of the GVA, saw their nominal wage growth decline to 5.7 per cent during FY17-FY21 from 8.2 per cent during FY12-FY16. In fact, the real wage growth became nearly flat or even turned negative in some months of FY23 due to high inflation.

“Since much of the growth in consumption demand is driven by the wage growth of the household sector, a recovery in their wage growth is an imperative for a sustainable economic recovery,” he noted.

The first advance estimates for 2022-23 factored in discrepancies of Rs 4,06,943 crore, which is nearly double the amount of Rs 2,16,842 crore as per provisional estimates of GDP growth for 2021-22 released on May 31, 2022. The discrepancies were Rs 2,38,638 crore in 2020-21.

Also watch |&nbsp;India's EAM S. Jaishankar takes on Europe's charges, calls out China

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Discrepancies in the statistical GDP data refer to the difference in national income under production method and expenditure method.

As per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday, the manufacturing sector output is estimated to decelerate to 1.6 per cent in the current fiscal from 9.9 per cent in 2021-22.

Similarly, mining sector growth is estimated at 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal as against 11.5 per cent in 2021-22.

“Real GDP or GDP (Gross Domestic Product) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 157.60 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs 147.36 lakh crore, released on 31st May, 2022,” an NSO statement said.

It stated that growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.0 per cent as compared to 8.7 per cent in 2021-22.

It also said the nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 273.08 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs 236.65 lakh crore.

The growth in nominal GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 15.4 per cent as compared to 19.5 per cent in 2021-22.

The agriculture sector is projected to see a growth of 3.5 per cent in FY2022-23, higher than the 3 per cent expansion recorded in the previous financial year.

Trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting segment is estimated to grow at 13.7 per cent from 11.1 per cent in 2021-22.

Financial, real estate and professional services segment is projected to grow at 6.4 per cent in the current fiscal, up from 4.2 per cent in 202-22.&nbsp;However, construction sector growth is expected to decelerate to 9.1 per cent from 11.5 per cent a year ago.

Similarly, public adminstration, defence and other services growth is estimated to drop to 7.9 per cent this fiscal from 12.6 per cent in FY22.&nbsp;The growth in gross value added (GVA) at basic prices is pegged at 6.7 per cent this fiscal, down from 8.1 per cent in 2021-22.&nbsp;

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Hit by weakening demand, the Indian economy is expected to grow at a slower 7 per cent rate in the current fiscal ending March 2023, setting the stage for the country losing the fastest-growing major economy tag.

Hit by weakening demand, the Indian economy is expected to grow at a slower 7 per cent rate in the current fiscal ending March 2023, setting the stage for the country losing the fastest-growing major economy tag. The 7 per cent expansion projected in the first official estimate released by the Statistics Ministry compares with 8.7 per cent gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2021-22. The projections are much lower than government’s earlier forecast of 8-8.5 per cent growth but above the Reserve Bank’s projection of 6.8 per cent. If the forecast comes true, India’s GDP growth will be lower than Saudi Arabia’s expected 7.6 per cent expansion. In fact, India’s GDP growth in the July-September quarter at 6.3 per cent was lower than the 8.7 per cent of Saudi Arabia. Also read | Mesmerising view of train passing through snow-covered Jammu and Kashmir The first advance GDP estimates, which are used to work out allocations and other fiscal projections for the next Budget due on February 1, proved to be more optimistic than the actual growth in three out of the last four years. The projections suggest that despite the global headwinds and continued geopolitical uncertainty caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the recovery is on track though there are pressure points. Inflation has been sticky despite a 225 basis points increase in interest rates since last May, which is likely to moderate demand. “We believe that buoyant albeit mixed domestic consumption should help to stave off some of the pain arising from weak exports during this period,” said Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA Ltd. “Given the full-year projections released today by the NSO, we expect there to be some revisions in either the H1 or the H2 FY2023 sectoral numbers, in the subsequent data releases.” Sunil Sinha, Senior Director and Principal Economist, India Ratings & Research, said the road ahead is not going to be easy so long as private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) does not recover fully and become broad-based. “The household sector, which accounts for 44-45 per cent of the GVA, saw their nominal wage growth decline to 5.7 per cent during FY17-FY21 from 8.2 per cent during FY12-FY16. In fact, the real wage growth became nearly flat or even turned negative in some months of FY23 due to high inflation. “Since much of the growth in consumption demand is driven by the wage growth of the household sector, a recovery in their wage growth is an imperative for a sustainable economic recovery,” he noted. The first advance estimates for 2022-23 factored in discrepancies of Rs 4,06,943 crore, which is nearly double the amount of Rs 2,16,842 crore as per provisional estimates of GDP growth for 2021-22 released on May 31, 2022. The discrepancies were Rs 2,38,638 crore in 2020-21. Also watch | India's EAM S. Jaishankar takes on Europe's charges, calls out China Discrepancies in the statistical GDP data refer to the difference in national income under production method and expenditure method. As per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday, the manufacturing sector output is estimated to decelerate to 1.6 per cent in the current fiscal from 9.9 per cent in 2021-22. Similarly, mining sector growth is estimated at 2.4 per cent in the current fiscal as against 11.5 per cent in 2021-22. “Real GDP or GDP (Gross Domestic Product) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 157.60 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs 147.36 lakh crore, released on 31st May, 2022,” an NSO statement said. It stated that growth in real GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 7.0 per cent as compared to 8.7 per cent in 2021-22. It also said the nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2022-23 is estimated at Rs 273.08 lakh crore, as against the Provisional Estimate of GDP for the year 2021-22 of Rs 236.65 lakh crore. The growth in nominal GDP during 2022-23 is estimated at 15.4 per cent as compared to 19.5 per cent in 2021-22. The agriculture sector is projected to see a growth of 3.5 per cent in FY2022-23, higher than the 3 per cent expansion recorded in the previous financial year. Trade, hotel, transport, communication and services related to broadcasting segment is estimated to grow at 13.7 per cent from 11.1 per cent in 2021-22. Financial, real estate and professional services segment is projected to grow at 6.4 per cent in the current fiscal, up from 4.2 per cent in 202-22. However, construction sector growth is expected to decelerate to 9.1 per cent from 11.5 per cent a year ago. Similarly, public adminstration, defence and other services growth is estimated to drop to 7.9 per cent this fiscal from 12.6 per cent in FY22. The growth in gross value added (GVA) at basic prices is pegged at 6.7 per cent this fiscal, down from 8.1 per cent in 2021-22. WATCH WION LIVE HERE:

India to grow at 7% in FY23, lose fastest growing economy tag to Saudi Arabia

Vietnam's economy jumped by 8.02% in 2022. The country has outperformed its Asian neighbours in terms of growth. Does that make Vietnam a better economy? Molly Gambhir tells you more.

Gravitas: Vietnam becomes Asia's fastest-growing economy

India seems "unstoppable" in its momentum to become the third economic superpower and touch the $10-trillion mark by 2035, according to the Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR).

India to become $ 10 trillion economy by 2035, forecasts CEBR

The International Monetary Fund reported on Friday that India is navigating an "extremely tough" external environment, projecting growth rates of 6.8 per cent&nbsp;and 6.1 per cent for the current and following fiscal years, respectively. In her virtual conversation&nbsp;with reporters, Choueiri Nada, IMF's India Mission Chief, reaffirmed that India continues to be the lone bright spot in an otherwise bleak picture of the world economy.

“We are seeing the economy continue to grow pretty robustly this fiscal year,” Nada said as the international financial body released the report of its annual consultations with India.

The report predicts that growth would slow down as a result of the less optimistic outlook and the tighter financial environment. According to the IMF's report&nbsp;on India, the real GDP is expected to rise at 6.8 per cent&nbsp;and 6.1 per cent&nbsp;respectively in FY2022/23 and FY2023/24.

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-general-elections-2019/ex-icici-bank-ceo-chanda-kochhar-husband-arrested-by-cbi-in-videocon-loan-fraud-case-546165">Ex-ICICI bank CEO Chanda Kochhar, husband arrested by CBI in Videocon loan fraud case</a>

These projections are much better than they have been projecting earlier, Nada said. “In fact, in our projections, India is contributing half a per cent to global growth this year and next,” she said.

“But, of course, there are important risks and to have asked about those, we see that the risks are mostly on the downside and mostly coming from external factors. Perhaps the most important risk is sharper than anticipated global slowdown,” she said.

Also watch |&nbsp;World Business Watch: Wall Street tumbles on rate, recession worries

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The medium-term growth potential of India could be enhanced by either the effective implementation of extensive reforms or higher than anticipated benefits from the outstanding advancements in digitalisation.

(With inputs from agencies)

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The International Monetary Fund reported on Friday that India is navigating an "extremely tough" external environment, projecting growth rates of 6.8 per cent and 6.

The International Monetary Fund reported on Friday that India is navigating an "extremely tough" external environment, projecting growth rates of 6.8 per cent and 6.1 per cent for the current and following fiscal years, respectively. In her virtual conversation with reporters, Choueiri Nada, IMF's India Mission Chief, reaffirmed that India continues to be the lone bright spot in an otherwise bleak picture of the world economy. “We are seeing the economy continue to grow pretty robustly this fiscal year,” Nada said as the international financial body released the report of its annual consultations with India. The report predicts that growth would slow down as a result of the less optimistic outlook and the tighter financial environment. According to the IMF's report on India, the real GDP is expected to rise at 6.8 per cent and 6.1 per cent respectively in FY2022/23 and FY2023/24. Also read | Ex-ICICI bank CEO Chanda Kochhar, husband arrested by CBI in Videocon loan fraud case These projections are much better than they have been projecting earlier, Nada said. “In fact, in our projections, India is contributing half a per cent to global growth this year and next,” she said. “But, of course, there are important risks and to have asked about those, we see that the risks are mostly on the downside and mostly coming from external factors. Perhaps the most important risk is sharper than anticipated global slowdown,” she said. Also watch | World Business Watch: Wall Street tumbles on rate, recession worries The medium-term growth potential of India could be enhanced by either the effective implementation of extensive reforms or higher than anticipated benefits from the outstanding advancements in digitalisation. (With inputs from agencies) WATCH WION LIVE HERE:

IMF projects 6.8 per cent GDP growth for India next year

The World Bank slashed its economic growth outlook for the world’s second-largest economy, China, by almost a point and a half in its latest forecast published on Tuesday. This comes after the country's nearly three years of stringent ‘zero-Covid’ restrictions and its abrupt ease, earlier this month, following countrywide protests.&nbsp;

“Economic activity in China continues to track the ups and downs of the pandemic – outbreaks and growth slowdowns have been followed by uneven recoveries,” said the World Bank in a statement. Therefore, the Real GDP growth is estimated to reach 2.7 per cent in 2022 before recovering to 4.3 per cent in the upcoming year, as the economy will open, it added.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/chinas-business-confidence-plunges-to-its-lowest-in-nearly-a-decade-says-survey-544447">Chinese business confidence plunges to its lowest in nearly a decade, says survey</a>

Notably, the estimate for 2023 has also been reduced from 8.1 per cent to 4.3 per cent which was given earlier this year in June. This also could be attributed to some restrictions in place while the recent uptick in cases has disrupted business.&nbsp;

The US-based institute also noted factors like uncertain global outlook, climate change as well as the “persistent stress” in the country’s real estate market amid Beijing’s crackdown on excessive lending as some of the non-pandemic related risks.&nbsp;

ALSO WATCH |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/videos/world-business-watch-china-to-set-economic-plans-amid-shift-from-zero-covid-policy-542526">World Business Watch: China to set economic plans amid shift from Zero Covid policy</a>

However, Mara Warwick, World Bank country director for China, Mongolia and Korea said that China’s “continued adaptation” of its COVID-19 policies will play a significant role in the country’s ability to mitigate public health risks and to minimise further economic disruption, reported AFP.&nbsp;

In the larger context, the slowdown has also been seen as a consequence of the global economy being battered by high-interest rates with recent hikes announced by major economies including the US and UK, and potentially by the European Union in a bid to curb the soaring inflation triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and pandemic related supply chain issues.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/zero-covid-a-crumbling-real-estate-market-and-more-chinese-economy-and-the-challenges-it-faces-522534">Zero-Covid, a crumbling real estate market and more: Chinese economy and the challenges it faces</a>

According to World Bank’s Lead Economist for China, Elitza Mileva, Beijing could benefit from directing fiscal resources towards social spending and green investment, which could support short-term demand as well as contribute to sustainable growth in the medium term.&nbsp;

Meanwhile, China has also sought to mitigate this low growth by providing more support through a series of ease in restrictions as well as slashing interest rates in key areas of the economy, and pumping cash into the country’s banking system.&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies)&nbsp; 
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The World Bank slashed its economic growth outlook for the world’s second-largest economy, China, by almost a point and a half in its latest forecast published on Tuesday.

The World Bank slashed its economic growth outlook for the world’s second-largest economy, China, by almost a point and a half in its latest forecast published on Tuesday. This comes after the country's nearly three years of stringent ‘zero-Covid’ restrictions and its abrupt ease, earlier this month, following countrywide protests. “Economic activity in China continues to track the ups and downs of the pandemic – outbreaks and growth slowdowns have been followed by uneven recoveries,” said the World Bank in a statement. Therefore, the Real GDP growth is estimated to reach 2.7 per cent in 2022 before recovering to 4.3 per cent in the upcoming year, as the economy will open, it added. ALSO READ | Chinese business confidence plunges to its lowest in nearly a decade, says survey Notably, the estimate for 2023 has also been reduced from 8.1 per cent to 4.3 per cent which was given earlier this year in June. This also could be attributed to some restrictions in place while the recent uptick in cases has disrupted business. The US-based institute also noted factors like uncertain global outlook, climate change as well as the “persistent stress” in the country’s real estate market amid Beijing’s crackdown on excessive lending as some of the non-pandemic related risks. ALSO WATCH | World Business Watch: China to set economic plans amid shift from Zero Covid policy However, Mara Warwick, World Bank country director for China, Mongolia and Korea said that China’s “continued adaptation” of its COVID-19 policies will play a significant role in the country’s ability to mitigate public health risks and to minimise further economic disruption, reported AFP. In the larger context, the slowdown has also been seen as a consequence of the global economy being battered by high-interest rates with recent hikes announced by major economies including the US and UK, and potentially by the European Union in a bid to curb the soaring inflation triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and pandemic related supply chain issues. ALSO READ | Zero-Covid, a crumbling real estate market and more: Chinese economy and the challenges it faces According to World Bank’s Lead Economist for China, Elitza Mileva, Beijing could benefit from directing fiscal resources towards social spending and green investment, which could support short-term demand as well as contribute to sustainable growth in the medium term. Meanwhile, China has also sought to mitigate this low growth by providing more support through a series of ease in restrictions as well as slashing interest rates in key areas of the economy, and pumping cash into the country’s banking system. (With inputs from agencies) WATCH WION LIVE HERE You can now write for wionews.com and be a part of the community. Share your stories and opinions with us here.

World Bank slashes China’s growth forecast from 4.3 per cent to 2.7 per cent for 2022

Air pollution just not only causes loss to health but loss to a nation's wealth as well. This time a World Bank report estimates Bangladesh economic losses from air pollution which are estimated to be as much as 4.4 percent of country's GDP.

World Business Watch | 4.4% of GDP: Bangladesh's air pollution cost

India's economic growth has fallen sharply to 6.3 per cent in July to September quarter from double-digit growth of the April to June quarter. Watch this report.

India's GDP growth shrinks to 6.3%; The Agriculture sector grows 4.6%

Nine months after beginning its military offensive in Ukraine, Russia has entered a recession as a result of the economic pressure caused by Western sanctions, according to official figures released on Wednesday.&nbsp;

In the&nbsp;third quarter,&nbsp;GDP decreased by four per cent, according to a preliminary estimate by the national statistics office Rosstat.&nbsp;

With two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, which follows one of a similar size in the second quarter, Russia now satisfies the technical criteria for a recession.&nbsp;

The decrease in economic output between July and September was four per cent, which was less than the 4.5 per cent reduction that many economists had predicted.

A 22.6 per cent decline in wholesale trade and a 9.1 per cent decline in retail trade were the main contributors to the contraction.&nbsp;

Agriculture increased by 6.2 per cent, and building increased by 6.7 per cent.&nbsp;

Exports and imports, notably those of essential industrial parts and spare parts, have been restricted by Western sanctions.

Also &nbsp;Read:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/elon-musk-to-find-a-new-leader-to-run-twitter-gives-employees-deadline-to-resign-534874">Elon Musk to find a new leader to run Twitter, gives employees deadline to resign</a>

As a result of a partial mobilisation that forced several hundred thousand men out of labour, businesses have also been struggling with a staffing shortage.&nbsp;

Rosstat reports that even though the economy is shrinking, the unemployment rate in Russia was only 3.9 per cent&nbsp;in September.&nbsp;

As a result, the Russian economy has grown even more reliant on energy exports, which have generated around 40 per cent&nbsp;of the country's total income.

(with inputs from agencies)

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Nine months after beginning its military offensive in Ukraine, Russia has entered a recession as a result of the economic pressure caused by Western sanctions, according to official figures released on Wednesday.

Nine months after beginning its military offensive in Ukraine, Russia has entered a recession as a result of the economic pressure caused by Western sanctions, according to official figures released on Wednesday. In the third quarter, GDP decreased by four per cent, according to a preliminary estimate by the national statistics office Rosstat. With two consecutive quarters of declining GDP, which follows one of a similar size in the second quarter, Russia now satisfies the technical criteria for a recession. The decrease in economic output between July and September was four per cent, which was less than the 4.5 per cent reduction that many economists had predicted. A 22.6 per cent decline in wholesale trade and a 9.1 per cent decline in retail trade were the main contributors to the contraction. Agriculture increased by 6.2 per cent, and building increased by 6.7 per cent. Exports and imports, notably those of essential industrial parts and spare parts, have been restricted by Western sanctions. Also Read: Elon Musk to find a new leader to run Twitter, gives employees deadline to resign As a result of a partial mobilisation that forced several hundred thousand men out of labour, businesses have also been struggling with a staffing shortage. Rosstat reports that even though the economy is shrinking, the unemployment rate in Russia was only 3.9 per cent in September. As a result, the Russian economy has grown even more reliant on energy exports, which have generated around 40 per cent of the country's total income. (with inputs from agencies)

Russia officially enters recession, GDP shrinks 4% in third quarter

Barclays cut its forecast for China’s economic growth next year to 3.8%, based partly on expectations of a drop in global demand for Chinese goods.

WION Business News | Barclays cuts China GDP outlook

Amidst heated external political climate and Covid-19 restrictions, the economy of Hong Kong has taken a steep downturn. The economy contracted 4.5 percent in the third quarter which is the worst contraction in Hong Kong since 2020.

Hong Kong: Worst GDP contraction since 2020, Q3 GDP shrinks 4.5%

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