Union minister and BJP leader Smriti Irani on Thursday accused the Congress of dividing communities and creating a rift among "brothers".

Irani's statement came in the backdrop of circulation of a purported video in which Madhya Pradesh Congress president Kamal Nath is allegedly asking a group of Muslims to ensure his party gets 90 per cent of votes in their booths.

In another video that surfaced early this month, Nath was purportedly seen urging Muslims to be wary of the RSS agenda. The Congress leader had termed this video as fake.

Addressing an election rally here, Irani said "A Congress leader sitting among Muslim brothers was heard saying that come with us and he will deal with Hindus...Congress leader doesn't know that when one brother meets another, he doesn't ask his caste and religion."

The BJP leader did not name Nath.

Irani alleged the Congress wanted to create a rift among "brothers" and division on communal lines.

She taunted the Congress for not declaring its chief ministerial candidate before the elections in Madhya Pradesh.

"At least they (Congress) should tell the people whether Kamal (Kamal Nath) is blossoming or Jyoti (Jyotiraditya Scindia) will burn bright. What can we expect from a party which is unable to decide its leader," she said.

Irani also took potshots at Congress chief Rahul Gandhi, saying he is "not able to see the development of Madhya Pradesh and the country (under the BJP)".

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given a gift of 22,000 houses for the poor in Amethi (Gandhi's Lok Sabha constituency in Uttar Pradesh). There are two lakh beneficiaries of government schemes there," she said.

Irani addressed another election rally in support of the BJP at Barwah in Khargone district.

Madhya Pradesh will have a single phase polling on November 28 for its 230-member assembly. Counting of votes will take place on December 11.

The BJP is seeking a fourth straight term in office in the state, while the Congress is eyeing return to power in its erstwhile bastion after 15 years.&nbsp;

Union minister and BJP leader Smriti Irani on Thursday accused the Congress of dividing communities and creating a rift among "brothers". Irani's statement came in the backdrop of circulation of a purported video in which Madhya Pradesh Congress president Kamal Nath is allegedly asking a group of Muslims to ensure his party gets 90 per cent of votes in their booths.

Union minister and BJP leader Smriti Irani on Thursday accused the Congress of dividing communities and creating a rift among "brothers". Irani's statement came in the backdrop of circulation of a purported video in which Madhya Pradesh Congress president Kamal Nath is allegedly asking a group of Muslims to ensure his party gets 90 per cent of votes in their booths. In another video that surfaced early this month, Nath was purportedly seen urging Muslims to be wary of the RSS agenda. The Congress leader had termed this video as fake. Addressing an election rally here, Irani said "A Congress leader sitting among Muslim brothers was heard saying that come with us and he will deal with Hindus...Congress leader doesn't know that when one brother meets another, he doesn't ask his caste and religion." The BJP leader did not name Nath. Irani alleged the Congress wanted to create a rift among "brothers" and division on communal lines. She taunted the Congress for not declaring its chief ministerial candidate before the elections in Madhya Pradesh. "At least they (Congress) should tell the people whether Kamal (Kamal Nath) is blossoming or Jyoti (Jyotiraditya Scindia) will burn bright. What can we expect from a party which is unable to decide its leader," she said. Irani also took potshots at Congress chief Rahul Gandhi, saying he is "not able to see the development of Madhya Pradesh and the country (under the BJP)". "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has given a gift of 22,000 houses for the poor in Amethi (Gandhi's Lok Sabha constituency in Uttar Pradesh). There are two lakh beneficiaries of government schemes there," she said. Irani addressed another election rally in support of the BJP at Barwah in Khargone district. Madhya Pradesh will have a single phase polling on November 28 for its 230-member assembly. Counting of votes will take place on December 11. The BJP is seeking a fourth straight term in office in the state, while the Congress is eyeing return to power in its erstwhile bastion after 15 years.

Congress is dividing communities, says Smriti Irani

It’s difficult to say exactly when the Eureka moment first struck Congress President Rahul Gandhi. Around mid-2017, buffeted by state assembly defeat, Gandhi had his epiphany: the Hindu card.&nbsp;

Why hadn’t we thought of it earlier, he apocryphally asked his advisors. The Congress, he reckoned, had damaged itself electorally by being seen as a “Muslim party”. Hindus, even moderate longtime Congress supporters, were deserting the Congress.

The saffronisation of the Congress began haltingly. First came Gandhi’s widely publicised visit to the Kedarnath temple in Uttarakhand. The December 2017 Gujarat Assembly election was a key test laboratory. If the Congress’ new found Hindu-centricism found resonance in Prime Minister Narendra Modi home turf, long a polarised Hindutva stronghold, it could succeed in other states as well.

It did. Karnataka followed. As he had done in Gujarat, Gandhi visited several temples and declared himself a 'Shiva bhakt'. But wouldn’t Muslims be upset? Gandhi was confident that Muslims would anyway not vote for the BJP. A bit of proto-Hindutva would retain the Congress’ traditional minority vote bank while recapturing the centrist Hindu vote, resentful of the Congress’ minority tilt.

With the key Madhya Pradesh assembly election due on Wednesday, November 28, the Congress has gone saffron with a vengeance. Its manifesto reads like a BJP manifesto. The Congress has promised the Madhya Pradesh electorate that it will build gaushalas in every panchayat. It has pledged to develop Rath Path Gaman, the route Lord Ram took during his exile.&nbsp;

The Congress manifesto goes on unblinkingly to say that it will begin commercial production of gau mutra (cow urine). To emphasise its new saffron credentials, in case there was any lingering doubt, the Congress has promised that, if elected, it will establish a “spiritual” department in its state government though it didn’t say whether sadhus or sants would head it.

Madhya Pradesh is possibly the most important assembly election of the five states now going to the polls. A Congress victory in Rajasthan is a foregone conclusion despite a late BJP resurgence: the only question is whether veteran Ashok Gehlot or young turk Sachin Pilot will be the chief minister.&nbsp;

Chhattisgarh will see a close battle but the BJP is likely to eke out a slim majority. The TRS will sweep Telangana while the result in Mizoram with its fragmented politics, whichever way it goes, will not have national impact.

Madhya Pradesh will. It is a knife-edge election with much at stake. If the Congress wins, it will have four big states – Karnataka, Punjab, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh – in its bag ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election.

Personal reputations too are at stake in Madhya Pradesh: Jyotiraditya Scindia, Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh have put themselves on the line for the Congress. For three-term chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan it’s a do-or-die election.

A victory in Madhya Pradesh will boost Gandhi’s political stock as much as it will dim BJP president Amit Shah’s halo of invincibility. Sensing that the saffron rug had been pulled from under his feet, Shivraj Singh Chouhan has focused his election campaign on vikas. “The Ram Mandir is there,” he says, “but for us it is vikas, development.” Chouhan knows that the Madhya Pradesh electorate takes his and the BJP’s saffron credentials for granted. After all, the foundation of the country’s first cow sanctuary, he points out, was laid by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat.

Confident of its grip on the saffron vote, the BJP has dismissed the Congress’ pledge to build “many more cow sanctuaries” as an electoral gambit. The Congress’ Madhya Pradesh manifesto committee chairman and deputy speaker of the state assembly Rajendra Singh is disarmingly candid about the party’s Hindutva strategy: “The BJP used to brand us as a Muslim party. It’s a conscious decision to shed that tag thrust on us by our rivals. Earlier, we did not do anything to change the perception. We are not a Muslim party, we are a secular party. But it’s true that you can’t win elections without taking care of the majority community. We do respect Muslims.”

Singh justifies the party’s rightward swing with more artless candour: “When you have a gaushala you will also have dung and urine. Why let it go waste? When gau mutra is purchased for pesticides why not sell it? The cow is a sacred animal for us. We can’t encourage slaughter at any cost but legal transportation must be allowed for agricultural purposes because the livelihood of many depends on it.”

Will Gandhi follow this saffron-lite strategy at the national level? A gaushala-friendly policy may not work in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where the percentage of Muslims is higher than in Madhya Pradesh. Ironically, while the Congress is adopting saffron, the BJP is wooing Muslims, especially Shias, Bohras and Memons, seen as being friendlier to the BJP than the majority Sunnis.&nbsp;

As both Congress and BJP shed their historical positions and their ideological lines begin to blur, religion could in future, counter-intuitively, play a less defining role in determining election results. Both parties, ideological clones, will then compel voters to judge them on the only criterion that matters: development.

(This article was originally published on DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-saffronisation-of-congress-2687995">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

&nbsp;

It’s difficult to say exactly when the Eureka moment first struck Congress President Rahul Gandhi. Around mid-2017, buffeted by state assembly defeat, Gandhi had his epiphany: the Hindu card.

It’s difficult to say exactly when the Eureka moment first struck Congress President Rahul Gandhi. Around mid-2017, buffeted by state assembly defeat, Gandhi had his epiphany: the Hindu card. Why hadn’t we thought of it earlier, he apocryphally asked his advisors. The Congress, he reckoned, had damaged itself electorally by being seen as a “Muslim party”. Hindus, even moderate longtime Congress supporters, were deserting the Congress. The saffronisation of the Congress began haltingly. First came Gandhi’s widely publicised visit to the Kedarnath temple in Uttarakhand. The December 2017 Gujarat Assembly election was a key test laboratory. If the Congress’ new found Hindu-centricism found resonance in Prime Minister Narendra Modi home turf, long a polarised Hindutva stronghold, it could succeed in other states as well. It did. Karnataka followed. As he had done in Gujarat, Gandhi visited several temples and declared himself a 'Shiva bhakt'. But wouldn’t Muslims be upset? Gandhi was confident that Muslims would anyway not vote for the BJP. A bit of proto-Hindutva would retain the Congress’ traditional minority vote bank while recapturing the centrist Hindu vote, resentful of the Congress’ minority tilt. With the key Madhya Pradesh assembly election due on Wednesday, November 28, the Congress has gone saffron with a vengeance. Its manifesto reads like a BJP manifesto. The Congress has promised the Madhya Pradesh electorate that it will build gaushalas in every panchayat. It has pledged to develop Rath Path Gaman, the route Lord Ram took during his exile. The Congress manifesto goes on unblinkingly to say that it will begin commercial production of gau mutra (cow urine). To emphasise its new saffron credentials, in case there was any lingering doubt, the Congress has promised that, if elected, it will establish a “spiritual” department in its state government though it didn’t say whether sadhus or sants would head it. Madhya Pradesh is possibly the most important assembly election of the five states now going to the polls. A Congress victory in Rajasthan is a foregone conclusion despite a late BJP resurgence: the only question is whether veteran Ashok Gehlot or young turk Sachin Pilot will be the chief minister. Chhattisgarh will see a close battle but the BJP is likely to eke out a slim majority. The TRS will sweep Telangana while the result in Mizoram with its fragmented politics, whichever way it goes, will not have national impact. Madhya Pradesh will. It is a knife-edge election with much at stake. If the Congress wins, it will have four big states – Karnataka, Punjab, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh – in its bag ahead of the 2019 Lok Sabha election. Personal reputations too are at stake in Madhya Pradesh: Jyotiraditya Scindia, Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh have put themselves on the line for the Congress. For three-term chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan it’s a do-or-die election. A victory in Madhya Pradesh will boost Gandhi’s political stock as much as it will dim BJP president Amit Shah’s halo of invincibility. Sensing that the saffron rug had been pulled from under his feet, Shivraj Singh Chouhan has focused his election campaign on vikas. “The Ram Mandir is there,” he says, “but for us it is vikas, development.” Chouhan knows that the Madhya Pradesh electorate takes his and the BJP’s saffron credentials for granted. After all, the foundation of the country’s first cow sanctuary, he points out, was laid by RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat. Confident of its grip on the saffron vote, the BJP has dismissed the Congress’ pledge to build “many more cow sanctuaries” as an electoral gambit. The Congress’ Madhya Pradesh manifesto committee chairman and deputy speaker of the state assembly Rajendra Singh is disarmingly candid about the party’s Hindutva strategy: “The BJP used to brand us as a Muslim party. It’s a conscious decision to shed that tag thrust on us by our rivals. Earlier, we did not do anything to change the perception. We are not a Muslim party, we are a secular party. But it’s true that you can’t win elections without taking care of the majority community. We do respect Muslims.” Singh justifies the party’s rightward swing with more artless candour: “When you have a gaushala you will also have dung and urine. Why let it go waste? When gau mutra is purchased for pesticides why not sell it? The cow is a sacred animal for us. We can’t encourage slaughter at any cost but legal transportation must be allowed for agricultural purposes because the livelihood of many depends on it.” Will Gandhi follow this saffron-lite strategy at the national level? A gaushala-friendly policy may not work in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where the percentage of Muslims is higher than in Madhya Pradesh. Ironically, while the Congress is adopting saffron, the BJP is wooing Muslims, especially Shias, Bohras and Memons, seen as being friendlier to the BJP than the majority Sunnis. As both Congress and BJP shed their historical positions and their ideological lines begin to blur, religion could in future, counter-intuitively, play a less defining role in determining election results. Both parties, ideological clones, will then compel voters to judge them on the only criterion that matters: development. (This article was originally published on DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Assembly elections 2018: Will Congress' new found Hindu-centricism work at national level?

There has been much talk of the Congress's Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot contesting the elections in Rajasthan — both of them are chief ministerial candidates. WION spoke with Avinash Pande, the Congress' general secretary in charge of Rajasthan, and asked him whether the fielding of both Pilot and Gehlot was sending confusing signals.&nbsp;

Pande&nbsp;said no. That there was a demand from the party's workers that both leaders be fielded, and that the fielding of senior leaders helps mobilise party cadre. Here is the full text of their conversation:&nbsp;

 
Kartikeya Sharma: Why did Congress field both Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan?

Avinash Pande: Both of them are tall leaders. There was demand from the workers as well. We also wanted senior leaders to contest assembly elections. It helps party to mobilise the cadre.

KS: Doesn’t it send contradictory signals in the context of the chief ministerial candidate? 
AP: I do not agree. CM is decided by the MLAs after the elections in consultation with the high command. The decision to field them was not taken keeping the issue of CM in mind. The decision was taken because there was demand from the workers. It is for this reason senior leaders in Rajasthan were asked to contest assembly elections.

KS: What are the principle issues in Rajasthan? 
AP: Rajasthan is suffering from rural distress. There are issues related to MSP and electricity as well. The state is also suffering from unemployment. Previous government could not deliver on its promises. Demonetisation further impacted the job market in the state. Even small business suffered in Rajasthan. Another big issue in Rajasthan is that of education. Today, 23,000 schools are non-functional and thousands of teachers are unemployed. Government is also trying to run government schools through PPT model and wants to hand over command of them to private players which is not correct. It has adversely impacted the educational infrastructure in the state. Our government was in the state till 2013 and we especially focused on health care in the rural areas which has now been discontinued. The new policies which came into effect added to the strain on common man’s pocket. It did not benefit the poor. It only helped few insurance companies and doctors.

KS: When you took over the reign of the state Congress, what were the challenges you encountered? 
AP: First thing I did was to focus on the organisation at the booth level. We started a number of programs to strengthen workers at the booth level, then we worked on the membership drive in the state. Mera Booth Mera Gaurav was our flagship program which was organised all across the state where we educated and trained our booth level workers. We involved leadership from across the state. The face of the young is Sachin, while Ashok Gehlot has vast experience and we were successful in harnessing them on the ground. It helped energise the workers.

KS: There are a lot of positive reports from Rajasthan unlike other states where the Congress is fighting. Why is the Rajasthan story different from other states? 
AP: It has happened because workers and leaders are fighting elections together. It is for this reason we are doing well in the state. People also realised that they made a mistake in voting for BJP in 2013 and 2014 elections.

&nbsp; 
KS: Are demonetisation and GST issues in the current election? 
AP: Absolutely. Demonetisaion increased unemployment. Governance is an issue in the state. No one feels secure in the state. Even law and order is an issue in the state. Mineral resources and forests resources have been pilfered in the state. On top of it, corruption is an issue in the state. Those who were asked by the government to sidestep the issue of corruption ended up getting tickets from the party to contest and became faces of the BJP in the current assembly elections.&nbsp;

There has been much talk of the Congress's Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot contesting the elections in Rajasthan — both of them are chief ministerial candidates. WION spoke with Avinash Pande, the Congress' general secretary in charge of Rajasthan, and asked him whether the fielding of both Pilot and Gehlot was sending confusing signals.

There has been much talk of the Congress's Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot contesting the elections in Rajasthan — both of them are chief ministerial candidates. WION spoke with Avinash Pande, the Congress' general secretary in charge of Rajasthan, and asked him whether the fielding of both Pilot and Gehlot was sending confusing signals. Pande said no. That there was a demand from the party's workers that both leaders be fielded, and that the fielding of senior leaders helps mobilise party cadre. Here is the full text of their conversation: Kartikeya Sharma: Why did Congress field both Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot in Rajasthan? Avinash Pande: Both of them are tall leaders. There was demand from the workers as well. We also wanted senior leaders to contest assembly elections. It helps party to mobilise the cadre. KS: Doesn’t it send contradictory signals in the context of the chief ministerial candidate? AP: I do not agree. CM is decided by the MLAs after the elections in consultation with the high command. The decision to field them was not taken keeping the issue of CM in mind. The decision was taken because there was demand from the workers. It is for this reason senior leaders in Rajasthan were asked to contest assembly elections. KS: What are the principle issues in Rajasthan? AP: Rajasthan is suffering from rural distress. There are issues related to MSP and electricity as well. The state is also suffering from unemployment. Previous government could not deliver on its promises. Demonetisation further impacted the job market in the state. Even small business suffered in Rajasthan. Another big issue in Rajasthan is that of education. Today, 23,000 schools are non-functional and thousands of teachers are unemployed. Government is also trying to run government schools through PPT model and wants to hand over command of them to private players which is not correct. It has adversely impacted the educational infrastructure in the state. Our government was in the state till 2013 and we especially focused on health care in the rural areas which has now been discontinued. The new policies which came into effect added to the strain on common man’s pocket. It did not benefit the poor. It only helped few insurance companies and doctors. KS: When you took over the reign of the state Congress, what were the challenges you encountered? AP: First thing I did was to focus on the organisation at the booth level. We started a number of programs to strengthen workers at the booth level, then we worked on the membership drive in the state. Mera Booth Mera Gaurav was our flagship program which was organised all across the state where we educated and trained our booth level workers. We involved leadership from across the state. The face of the young is Sachin, while Ashok Gehlot has vast experience and we were successful in harnessing them on the ground. It helped energise the workers. KS: There are a lot of positive reports from Rajasthan unlike other states where the Congress is fighting. Why is the Rajasthan story different from other states? AP: It has happened because workers and leaders are fighting elections together. It is for this reason we are doing well in the state. People also realised that they made a mistake in voting for BJP in 2013 and 2014 elections. KS: Are demonetisation and GST issues in the current election? AP: Absolutely. Demonetisaion increased unemployment. Governance is an issue in the state. No one feels secure in the state. Even law and order is an issue in the state. Mineral resources and forests resources have been pilfered in the state. On top of it, corruption is an issue in the state. Those who were asked by the government to sidestep the issue of corruption ended up getting tickets from the party to contest and became faces of the BJP in the current assembly elections.

'Congress cadre wanted both Pilot, Gehlot to contest Rajasthan elections'

As curtains came down on the Chhattisgarh Assembly polls with the second and last phase of polling on Tuesday, the opposition Congress must be diligently mulling over the party’s chances of wresting the state from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after three successive routs.&nbsp;

The results in the assembly elections to the three Hindi belt states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh shall clearly impact the morale of the Congress to take on Modi’s BJP in the Lok Sabha elections due next year.

While the BJP is confident the performance of its chief ministers shall yet again deliver the goods for the party in their respective states, the Congress party under Rahul Gandhi has strategically refrained from projecting any chief minister face.&nbsp;

The strategy has an equal chance of success, as it has of failure. Anti-incumbency conflated with factors imported from the central government may upset BJP’s plans. &nbsp;

Despite anti-incumbency, more pronounced in Rajasthan and MP, Chhattisgarh, for instance, witnessed its own unique electoral arithmetic that may hurt the Congress as it would hurt the ruling BJP under Raman Singh, pledging to lead his party to a fourth successive victory in the state.&nbsp;

Despite a heavy turnout of voters (over 70 per cent – consistent since the newly-carved state went to polls for the first time in 2003) the Ajit Jogi-Mayawati electoral pact has the potential to upset Raman Singh’s dream run.

The former district collector turned leader, Ajit Jogi, is emerging as a force to reckon with in the state. With Mayawati by his side, he dreams of becoming the chief minister again.&nbsp;

He was the first chief minister of Chhattisgarh for three years after it came into being in 2000. The BSP traces its links with the state to 1984 when party’s founder Kanshi Ram had unsuccessfully contested the rural Janjgir Lok Sabha seat in undivided Madhya Pradesh. He had polled a paltry 32,000 votes.

With a four per cent vote share, the BSP tie-up may catapult Jogi into the role of a kingmaker if not the king, particularly considering that Chhattisgarh elections are closely fought contests. &nbsp;

The Congress has not projected any CM face. To top it all, the party has been plagued by infighting. Senior leaders like Ghanaram Sahu, state vice-president, ditched the party on the eve of the first phase of polling, delivering a second big blow to the Congress in quick succession.&nbsp;

Only a few days ago, party’s working president Ram Dayal Uike quit Congress to join hands with the BJP. With a raft of electoral debacles behind him, Rahul Gandhi shall be desperate to make a clean sweep when he has the chance. But, the infighting certainly makes his job of steering the party to victory a difficult proposition.

The Congress may be looking upbeat in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh. The incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s popularity has been hit by a combination of factors, most notably a three-term anti-incumbency. Against this backdrop, the Congress has made a veteran like Kamal Nath its state unit chief in the election year. It has also picked up Jyotiraditya Scindia to lead the campaign. And all this under the distant, sulking but observant eyes of the former CM Digvijay Singh.&nbsp;

The formidable line up of Congress leaders is a double-edged sword. Who shall be CM in case the party won the elections? The closest answer could be one of the three named above. Of these, two are Lok Sabha MPs and former ministers but have never been CM, a post that carries its own significance and could extend a halo around a leader of substance.&nbsp;

The third contender, who has been twice chief minister could be waiting in the wings, biding his time for party’s weak moment depending upon how the verdict shapes up.

Confronted with too many leaders, the Congress realizes picking one against the other could throw a spanner in its works, at a time when opinion polls have predicted a modest to heavy gain for the party in the state.&nbsp;

The ruling BJP is happy to exploit this Congress dilemma. PM Modi in one of his campaign rallies recently took a swipe against the Congress saying that Congress has three CM candidates and over a dozen are in the queue.&nbsp;

The Congress’s reply to the critics is on expected lines — the party does not believe in projecting chief ministers. But the fact is this is not a uniform rule, something which Rahul himself broke as party vice-president. Campaigning for the Punjab elections last year, he declared Capt Amarinder Singh as the party’s CM choice at least two months before the polls.&nbsp;

The Congress also failed to hitch its ride with the BSP in MP after Chhattisgarh. Though the party leaders downplay any suggestions it would impact poll prospects negatively, but it is nobody’s guess that in case of a hung assembly every seat counts. The party is betting on Rahul Gandhi just as Modi has been BJP’s mascot in one state election after another, pulling off some improbable victories.&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-cm-face-and-congress-dilemma-2687621">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

As curtains came down on the Chhattisgarh Assembly polls with the second and last phase of polling on Tuesday, the opposition Congress must be diligently mulling over the party’s chances of wresting the state from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after three successive routs.

As curtains came down on the Chhattisgarh Assembly polls with the second and last phase of polling on Tuesday, the opposition Congress must be diligently mulling over the party’s chances of wresting the state from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) after three successive routs. The results in the assembly elections to the three Hindi belt states of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh shall clearly impact the morale of the Congress to take on Modi’s BJP in the Lok Sabha elections due next year. While the BJP is confident the performance of its chief ministers shall yet again deliver the goods for the party in their respective states, the Congress party under Rahul Gandhi has strategically refrained from projecting any chief minister face. The strategy has an equal chance of success, as it has of failure. Anti-incumbency conflated with factors imported from the central government may upset BJP’s plans. Despite anti-incumbency, more pronounced in Rajasthan and MP, Chhattisgarh, for instance, witnessed its own unique electoral arithmetic that may hurt the Congress as it would hurt the ruling BJP under Raman Singh, pledging to lead his party to a fourth successive victory in the state. Despite a heavy turnout of voters (over 70 per cent – consistent since the newly-carved state went to polls for the first time in 2003) the Ajit Jogi-Mayawati electoral pact has the potential to upset Raman Singh’s dream run. The former district collector turned leader, Ajit Jogi, is emerging as a force to reckon with in the state. With Mayawati by his side, he dreams of becoming the chief minister again. He was the first chief minister of Chhattisgarh for three years after it came into being in 2000. The BSP traces its links with the state to 1984 when party’s founder Kanshi Ram had unsuccessfully contested the rural Janjgir Lok Sabha seat in undivided Madhya Pradesh. He had polled a paltry 32,000 votes. With a four per cent vote share, the BSP tie-up may catapult Jogi into the role of a kingmaker if not the king, particularly considering that Chhattisgarh elections are closely fought contests. The Congress has not projected any CM face. To top it all, the party has been plagued by infighting. Senior leaders like Ghanaram Sahu, state vice-president, ditched the party on the eve of the first phase of polling, delivering a second big blow to the Congress in quick succession. Only a few days ago, party’s working president Ram Dayal Uike quit Congress to join hands with the BJP. With a raft of electoral debacles behind him, Rahul Gandhi shall be desperate to make a clean sweep when he has the chance. But, the infighting certainly makes his job of steering the party to victory a difficult proposition. The Congress may be looking upbeat in neighbouring Madhya Pradesh. The incumbent CM Shivraj Singh Chouhan’s popularity has been hit by a combination of factors, most notably a three-term anti-incumbency. Against this backdrop, the Congress has made a veteran like Kamal Nath its state unit chief in the election year. It has also picked up Jyotiraditya Scindia to lead the campaign. And all this under the distant, sulking but observant eyes of the former CM Digvijay Singh. The formidable line up of Congress leaders is a double-edged sword. Who shall be CM in case the party won the elections? The closest answer could be one of the three named above. Of these, two are Lok Sabha MPs and former ministers but have never been CM, a post that carries its own significance and could extend a halo around a leader of substance. The third contender, who has been twice chief minister could be waiting in the wings, biding his time for party’s weak moment depending upon how the verdict shapes up. Confronted with too many leaders, the Congress realizes picking one against the other could throw a spanner in its works, at a time when opinion polls have predicted a modest to heavy gain for the party in the state. The ruling BJP is happy to exploit this Congress dilemma. PM Modi in one of his campaign rallies recently took a swipe against the Congress saying that Congress has three CM candidates and over a dozen are in the queue. The Congress’s reply to the critics is on expected lines — the party does not believe in projecting chief ministers. But the fact is this is not a uniform rule, something which Rahul himself broke as party vice-president. Campaigning for the Punjab elections last year, he declared Capt Amarinder Singh as the party’s CM choice at least two months before the polls. The Congress also failed to hitch its ride with the BSP in MP after Chhattisgarh. Though the party leaders downplay any suggestions it would impact poll prospects negatively, but it is nobody’s guess that in case of a hung assembly every seat counts. The party is betting on Rahul Gandhi just as Modi has been BJP’s mascot in one state election after another, pulling off some improbable victories. (This article was originally published on DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Chhattisgarh Assembly elections: CM face and Congress dilemma

With the conclusion of the second and final phase of polling in BJP ruled Chhattisgarh on Tuesday (20 November), all eyes are now on the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, also under BJP rule for last 15 years, where polling will be held on November 28 .

The contest is triangular in Chhattisgarh between the ruling BJP, Congress and the BSP-JCC alliance.&nbsp;

In Madhya Pradesh also the main battle is between the BJP and the Congress. The BSP and Samajwadi Party are also in the fray and would be angling for about a dozen seats, mainly constituencies in districts bordering Uttar Pradesh. There are also small pockets where the Aam Aadmi Party candidates have positioned themselves among the top three contenders.

The huge people’s movement against reservation, which has been built in the state since 2016 by Samanya Pichda Alpsankhyaalyan Samaj (Sapaks Samaj), had received a shot in the arm by the massive public response to the call for Bharat Bandh against the amendment to the SC/ST Atrocities Act on September 6 this year.&nbsp;

This had given an indication of the emergence of a third force in MP politics but its punch and edge got dissipated within no time. A major reason for this is the vertical split in Sapaks Samaj and the controversy over the registration of a political party by the name of “Sapaks Party” by the Election Commission. A Division bench, headed by the Chief Justice of Madhya Pradesh high court, heard a writ petition in this matter on Monday (19 November) and reserved for order its verdict in this matter. Also there were about two dozen newly registered and untested political parties, lacking the basic leadership but claiming to represent those opposed to the reservation on caste lines. 
 
They suddenly popped up like mushroom but nothing has been heard of them after a futile bid by popular Kathavachak Devkinandan Thakur to bring them under a single umbrella by ensuring all parties opposed to the Atrocities Act unite and settle for “single banner and same election symbol” in every constituency.

In Madhya Pradesh, the state BJP unit will be taking its poll campaign to another level on Wednesday (November 21) by lighting lotus shaped “diyas” (lamps), symbolising BJP’s election symbol, in homes across the state. This has a religious connotation as the BJP has named its novel form of the campaign as Kamal Diwali. It will be observed with the same enthusiasm as Diwali, the festival of lights.

Kamal Diwali will be a demonstration of BJP’s reach and support base prior to polling, now only a week away. It will also help in ensuring the BJP workers at the booth level are in the alert mode to help mobilise votes on D-day. BJP’s target is to reach out and cover at least 60000 villages through Kamal Diwali.

Not to be left behind will be the Congress party. Its workers will be going from booth-to-booth and door-to-door to present cotton wicks to the voters to light the “Badlav ki Baati” (lamps for change).

In the final run-up to elections, leaders from both sides – BJP and Congress – are following the no-holds-barred approach when it comes to lashing out at each other.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi was at his piercing best at his election rallies at Jhabua and Rewa, two far corners of Madhya Pradesh, on Tuesday. Targeting the Congress and holding it responsible for spreading corruption, the Prime Minister said that he was forced to go ahead with demonetisation to strike at the termite of corruption. Taking a dig at the Nehru-Gandhi family, he cited the example of the Moghuls and the ruling class in ancient and pre-history days and said four generations down the line their rule fell into decay.

From the Congress side, while former Congress president Arun Yadav is locked in a bitter fight with State Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Budhni, State Congress President Kamal Nath, along with party satraps Jyotiraditya Scindia, Ajay Singh, Digvijaya Singh and Suresh Pachouri are holding the fort, countering every attack from the BJP side by throwing shot for shot and galvanising support for their party candidates in their respective areas of influence.&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

 
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With the conclusion of the second and final phase of polling in BJP ruled Chhattisgarh on Tuesday (20 November), all eyes are now on the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, also under BJP rule for last 15 years, where polling will be held on November 28 .

With the conclusion of the second and final phase of polling in BJP ruled Chhattisgarh on Tuesday (20 November), all eyes are now on the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh, also under BJP rule for last 15 years, where polling will be held on November 28 . The contest is triangular in Chhattisgarh between the ruling BJP, Congress and the BSP-JCC alliance. In Madhya Pradesh also the main battle is between the BJP and the Congress. The BSP and Samajwadi Party are also in the fray and would be angling for about a dozen seats, mainly constituencies in districts bordering Uttar Pradesh. There are also small pockets where the Aam Aadmi Party candidates have positioned themselves among the top three contenders. The huge people’s movement against reservation, which has been built in the state since 2016 by Samanya Pichda Alpsankhyaalyan Samaj (Sapaks Samaj), had received a shot in the arm by the massive public response to the call for Bharat Bandh against the amendment to the SC/ST Atrocities Act on September 6 this year. This had given an indication of the emergence of a third force in MP politics but its punch and edge got dissipated within no time. A major reason for this is the vertical split in Sapaks Samaj and the controversy over the registration of a political party by the name of “Sapaks Party” by the Election Commission. A Division bench, headed by the Chief Justice of Madhya Pradesh high court, heard a writ petition in this matter on Monday (19 November) and reserved for order its verdict in this matter. Also there were about two dozen newly registered and untested political parties, lacking the basic leadership but claiming to represent those opposed to the reservation on caste lines. They suddenly popped up like mushroom but nothing has been heard of them after a futile bid by popular Kathavachak Devkinandan Thakur to bring them under a single umbrella by ensuring all parties opposed to the Atrocities Act unite and settle for “single banner and same election symbol” in every constituency. In Madhya Pradesh, the state BJP unit will be taking its poll campaign to another level on Wednesday (November 21) by lighting lotus shaped “diyas” (lamps), symbolising BJP’s election symbol, in homes across the state. This has a religious connotation as the BJP has named its novel form of the campaign as Kamal Diwali. It will be observed with the same enthusiasm as Diwali, the festival of lights. Kamal Diwali will be a demonstration of BJP’s reach and support base prior to polling, now only a week away. It will also help in ensuring the BJP workers at the booth level are in the alert mode to help mobilise votes on D-day. BJP’s target is to reach out and cover at least 60000 villages through Kamal Diwali. Not to be left behind will be the Congress party. Its workers will be going from booth-to-booth and door-to-door to present cotton wicks to the voters to light the “Badlav ki Baati” (lamps for change). In the final run-up to elections, leaders from both sides – BJP and Congress – are following the no-holds-barred approach when it comes to lashing out at each other. Prime Minister Narendra Modi was at his piercing best at his election rallies at Jhabua and Rewa, two far corners of Madhya Pradesh, on Tuesday. Targeting the Congress and holding it responsible for spreading corruption, the Prime Minister said that he was forced to go ahead with demonetisation to strike at the termite of corruption. Taking a dig at the Nehru-Gandhi family, he cited the example of the Moghuls and the ruling class in ancient and pre-history days and said four generations down the line their rule fell into decay. From the Congress side, while former Congress president Arun Yadav is locked in a bitter fight with State Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Budhni, State Congress President Kamal Nath, along with party satraps Jyotiraditya Scindia, Ajay Singh, Digvijaya Singh and Suresh Pachouri are holding the fort, countering every attack from the BJP side by throwing shot for shot and galvanising support for their party candidates in their respective areas of influence. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

In final run-up to MP elections, war of words intensifies between Congress and BJP

A large swathe of India is now governed by the BJP alone or in coalition with its allies. The biggest victory for the BJP in state elections was undoubtedly the landslide win in Uttar Pradesh in 2017. Since then the BJP has struggled to replicate that success. In Gujarat elections held in December 2017, the BJP won the election with a much narrower margin. However, in Karnataka elections earlier this year, the BJP despite trying every hook and trick in the book failed to dislodge the Congress which remains in government in coalition with JD(S).&nbsp;

Since then the BJP has lost several bypolls (both Lok Sabha and Assembly) in multiple states. It has looked increasingly desperate and lacking in the innovation and ability to re-endear itself to the voter. &nbsp;The overexposure of ‘Brand Modi’ coupled with the oversaturation of the public’s mind with Modi-centric messaging and campaigns seem to have led to people’s disenchantment with the central government. The most recent Lok Sabha bypolls in Karnataka where BJP lost its stronghold of Bellary by a margin of more than two lakh votes shows the extent to which people are disillusioned with the saffron party’s unkempt promise of ‘Ache Din’. &nbsp;It has also given a further boost to the idea of a united opposition’s ability to take on the BJP in the 2019 elections.&nbsp;

Notwithstanding the fact that the Congress could not ally with the BSP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, opposition unity remains a distinct possibility for the Lok Sabha elections this year. The BJP’s principal opposition party in these states is the Congress. In both Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is facing a huge anti-incumbency factor and its national leadership was under massive pressure from state units to fight alone instead of ceding space to other parties. 
 
In Chhattisgarh where one round of voting is over, and the second round takes place today, early surveys show that the electorate has voted for ‘Badlav’. It remains to be seen whether this Badlav will mean a Congress sweep or a Karnataka style Congress in an alliance (with Ajit Jogi and Mayawati who are fighting this election together). It is this innate longing for change that the Congress and a united opposition are banking on. In Rajasthan, the contest is heavily skewed against the incumbent BJP government. It is only in MP that the Congress, riven by factionalism, still looks unsure. However, here too the widespread discontentment with Shivraj –led BJP government could give the Congress just enough edge over the BJP. It is for the Congress to convert the desire for change into electoral victory.&nbsp;

It is being speculated that the lack of a credible and universally acceptable face is one of the main weaknesses of the proposed Mahagathbandhan; that a faceless opposition will not be able to take on the popularity and charisma of Brand Modi. It’s hard to disagree completely with this view as it quite likely that 2019 elections will be a contest between personalities: Prime Minister Modi on the NDA side and Rahul Gandhi from the Congress- UPA&nbsp;side. 
 
If that indeed turns out to be true then Gandhi with his unproven track record in government and the considerable baggage of Congress will not pass muster. Undoubtedly, an opposition with a universally acceptable face would have been a better bet but the lack of one gives it an opportunity to avoid a personality contest and instead emphasise the democratic nature of the Mahagathbandhan.&nbsp;

Therefore, it is only an opposition with a broadly shared understanding, region-wise local leaders and strategic vote-pooling can take on an opponent like Prime Minister Modi and the BJP.&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

A large swathe of India is now governed by the BJP alone or in coalition with its allies. The biggest victory for the BJP in state elections was undoubtedly the landslide win in Uttar Pradesh in 2017.

A large swathe of India is now governed by the BJP alone or in coalition with its allies. The biggest victory for the BJP in state elections was undoubtedly the landslide win in Uttar Pradesh in 2017. Since then the BJP has struggled to replicate that success. In Gujarat elections held in December 2017, the BJP won the election with a much narrower margin. However, in Karnataka elections earlier this year, the BJP despite trying every hook and trick in the book failed to dislodge the Congress which remains in government in coalition with JD(S). Since then the BJP has lost several bypolls (both Lok Sabha and Assembly) in multiple states. It has looked increasingly desperate and lacking in the innovation and ability to re-endear itself to the voter. The overexposure of ‘Brand Modi’ coupled with the oversaturation of the public’s mind with Modi-centric messaging and campaigns seem to have led to people’s disenchantment with the central government. The most recent Lok Sabha bypolls in Karnataka where BJP lost its stronghold of Bellary by a margin of more than two lakh votes shows the extent to which people are disillusioned with the saffron party’s unkempt promise of ‘Ache Din’. It has also given a further boost to the idea of a united opposition’s ability to take on the BJP in the 2019 elections. Notwithstanding the fact that the Congress could not ally with the BSP in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, opposition unity remains a distinct possibility for the Lok Sabha elections this year. The BJP’s principal opposition party in these states is the Congress. In both Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, the BJP is facing a huge anti-incumbency factor and its national leadership was under massive pressure from state units to fight alone instead of ceding space to other parties. In Chhattisgarh where one round of voting is over, and the second round takes place today, early surveys show that the electorate has voted for ‘Badlav’. It remains to be seen whether this Badlav will mean a Congress sweep or a Karnataka style Congress in an alliance (with Ajit Jogi and Mayawati who are fighting this election together). It is this innate longing for change that the Congress and a united opposition are banking on. In Rajasthan, the contest is heavily skewed against the incumbent BJP government. It is only in MP that the Congress, riven by factionalism, still looks unsure. However, here too the widespread discontentment with Shivraj –led BJP government could give the Congress just enough edge over the BJP. It is for the Congress to convert the desire for change into electoral victory. It is being speculated that the lack of a credible and universally acceptable face is one of the main weaknesses of the proposed Mahagathbandhan; that a faceless opposition will not be able to take on the popularity and charisma of Brand Modi. It’s hard to disagree completely with this view as it quite likely that 2019 elections will be a contest between personalities: Prime Minister Modi on the NDA side and Rahul Gandhi from the Congress- UPA side. If that indeed turns out to be true then Gandhi with his unproven track record in government and the considerable baggage of Congress will not pass muster. Undoubtedly, an opposition with a universally acceptable face would have been a better bet but the lack of one gives it an opportunity to avoid a personality contest and instead emphasise the democratic nature of the Mahagathbandhan. Therefore, it is only an opposition with a broadly shared understanding, region-wise local leaders and strategic vote-pooling can take on an opponent like Prime Minister Modi and the BJP. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

What Opposition unity could mean for BJP

The Congress party has released its fourth list of six candidates for the upcoming Telangana assembly elections, to be held on December 7.

The decision was announced by General Secretary of the Congress`s Central Election Commission, Mukul Wasnik on Sunday. So far, the party has announced the names of 94 candidates out of 119 seats in the state.

Earlier on Sunday, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) released the sixth list of six candidates for the upcoming polls in the state. The counting of votes for the high-stakes elections will take place on December 11.

The Telangana State Assembly was dissolved prematurely in September on the recommendation of the ruling K Chandrasekhar Rao-led Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) government.&nbsp;

The Congress party has released its fourth list of six candidates for the upcoming Telangana assembly elections, to be held on December 7. The decision was announced by General Secretary of the Congress`s Central Election Commission, Mukul Wasnik on Sunday.

The Congress party has released its fourth list of six candidates for the upcoming Telangana assembly elections, to be held on December 7. The decision was announced by General Secretary of the Congress`s Central Election Commission, Mukul Wasnik on Sunday. So far, the party has announced the names of 94 candidates out of 119 seats in the state. Earlier on Sunday, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) released the sixth list of six candidates for the upcoming polls in the state. The counting of votes for the high-stakes elections will take place on December 11. The Telangana State Assembly was dissolved prematurely in September on the recommendation of the ruling K Chandrasekhar Rao-led Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) government.

Congress releases fourth list of 6 candidates for Telangana polls

In an apparent reference to Congress leader and former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Digvijaya Singh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that one of the senior Congress leaders is not being allowed to campaign for the upcoming assembly elections in the state as the party fears that people will recall the failure of their tenure if Singh campaigns.

Earlier, Singh had said that "his party loses votes if he campaigns."

Addressing a rally in Indore on Sunday, the Prime Minister said, "One of the senior Congress leaders is not being allowed to campaign during these elections. The reason is that the Congress fears that if he campaigns, the party will lose as people will recall what the fate of Madhya Pradesh was during the time they were in power."

The Prime Minister also accused the Congress of playing divisive politics and said, "Congress neither has any policy, intention, nor a leader... its leader is confused. Let the naamdar (apparently Congress chief Rahul Gandhi) write down on a piece of paper how many zeroes are there in Rs. 23,000 crore. He will get confused."

He further asserted that these elections are not about who would win or who won`t win but about rejecting the "negative forces who have always focused on the 'divide and rule'&nbsp;approach."

Talking about the development work in Indore city, the Prime Minister announced that as part of the Smart City project, Rs. 23,000 crore will be spent on development of seven cities in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh including Indore over five years. He added, "In last two years, the foreign tourists` influx has increased."

Madhya Pradesh will go to polls on November 28 to elect 230 members of the legislative assembly. The results will be declared on December 11.

The single-phase election in the state is seen as a direct political battle between the BJP and the Congress. While Chouhan is eyeing to secure his fourth consecutive term as chief minister, the Congress is looking to regain power after 2003.

In an apparent reference to Congress leader and former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Digvijaya Singh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that one of the senior Congress leaders is not being allowed to campaign for the upcoming assembly elections in the state as the party fears that people will recall the failure of their tenure if Singh campaigns.

In an apparent reference to Congress leader and former Madhya Pradesh chief minister Digvijaya Singh, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that one of the senior Congress leaders is not being allowed to campaign for the upcoming assembly elections in the state as the party fears that people will recall the failure of their tenure if Singh campaigns. Earlier, Singh had said that "his party loses votes if he campaigns." Addressing a rally in Indore on Sunday, the Prime Minister said, "One of the senior Congress leaders is not being allowed to campaign during these elections. The reason is that the Congress fears that if he campaigns, the party will lose as people will recall what the fate of Madhya Pradesh was during the time they were in power." The Prime Minister also accused the Congress of playing divisive politics and said, "Congress neither has any policy, intention, nor a leader... its leader is confused. Let the naamdar (apparently Congress chief Rahul Gandhi) write down on a piece of paper how many zeroes are there in Rs. 23,000 crore. He will get confused." He further asserted that these elections are not about who would win or who won`t win but about rejecting the "negative forces who have always focused on the 'divide and rule' approach." Talking about the development work in Indore city, the Prime Minister announced that as part of the Smart City project, Rs. 23,000 crore will be spent on development of seven cities in poll-bound Madhya Pradesh including Indore over five years. He added, "In last two years, the foreign tourists` influx has increased." Madhya Pradesh will go to polls on November 28 to elect 230 members of the legislative assembly. The results will be declared on December 11. The single-phase election in the state is seen as a direct political battle between the BJP and the Congress. While Chouhan is eyeing to secure his fourth consecutive term as chief minister, the Congress is looking to regain power after 2003.

Congress not allowing senior leader to campaign to hide failure: PM Modi

The Rajasthan Assembly election is turning out to be more than an electoral contest; at the highest level, it has become a personal fight. The Congress has shrewdly capitalised on its new entrant Manvendra Singh’s desire for revenge against the Bharatiya Janata Party for having sidelined him as well as his father since 2014.&nbsp;

After his recent arrival to the Congress, Manvendra Singh had expressed disinterest in contesting the Assembly poll, preferring to keep his ammunition dry for the 2019 Lok Sabha battle. But the party’s high command successfully played on his hurt and persuaded him to not just fight the immediate battle but also take on incumbent chief minister Vasundhara Raje in her backyard, Jhalrapatan. &nbsp;

Four years ago, Vasundhara Raje had worked hard to ensure the defeat of Manvendra Singh’s father and then veteran BJP leader Jaswant Singh, who had contested as an independent candidate after the BJP denied him a ticket. Interestingly, the ticket had gone to Col Sonaram, who had crossed over to the party from the Congress and was backed by Vasundhara Raje. And, although Manvendra Singh had continued thereafter as a BJP legislator, he was kept at an arm’s distance by Vasundhara Raje — whose clout ensured that he remained cut off from the party’s central leadership too.&nbsp;

The personal clash between Raje and Jaswant Singh’s family goes back even earlier. In 2007, Jaswant Singh’s wife had filed a case in court against the depiction of Vasundhara Raje as a goddess in one of the posters and alleged that the image had hurt her religious sentiments. In the same year, the Vasundhara Raje regime had been quick to order a probe into an unsubstantiated allegation that guests at a function hosted by Jaswant Singh had been served with opium-laced milk! &nbsp;

Whatever the outcome may be, it is a fact that for now Jhalrapatan is poised for an interesting battle. Manvendra Singh may have preferred a constituency in Barmer for his debut contest as a Congressman, but now he has acquired a pan-Rajasthan image. It cannot be that he is unaware of the pitfalls of a head-on collision with the formidable Chief Minister. If he loses, it will be seen as a grave personal setback; for the Congress, though, it will be just a constituency lost. On the other hand, a victory will strengthen his stature within the Congress. More importantly, though, he will have had his revenge. &nbsp;

But the recent developments are unlikely to bring much cheer to the Congress as far as the Rajput vote-bank in the state is concerned. The Congress has fielded just two candidates from the Marwar region, where the Rajput community has a considerable sway. According to media reports, Manvendra Singh felt that the Congress ought to have given tickets to more Rajputs in the region, though he was quick to state that he had not expressed “displeasure” with the party. In contrast, the BJP has given tickets to as many as 10 Rajput candidates from Marwar. The first list the Congress released had in all 12 Rajputs, a number which was less than even the seats that the Brahmins got. The second list of 40 odd candidates did not improve the position.&nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
Personal rivalry is at play elsewhere too. Sitting Member of Parliament Harish Chandra Meena has joined the Congress, and one reason for his switchover is his opposition to Kirori Lal Meena, who is now in the BJP camp. The two heavyweight Meena leaders could not see eye to eye, with each working overtime to project themselves as the real leader of the community. For the Congress, it’s a welcome development since it could solidify the Meena community’s support for the Congress at a time when the former was feeling left out with the Congress making overtures to its traditional political rivals, the Gujjars and the Jats. &nbsp;

It is possible that Sachin Pilot, a Gujjar, could benefit from this Meena- Gujjar combine development (if it works out), given that he is being talked of as a chief ministerial candidate and would be contesting the Assembly poll. But there is a catch. Senior Congress leader Ashok Gehlot, the other strong contender for chief ministership in case the Congress wins, too is fighting the election. More significantly, the first list of candidates released by the party is said to be loaded in his favour, since many of the names he recommended strongly have found favour with the party’s high command. &nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
For now, though, both Pilot and Gehlot have to tackle internal dissensions over ticket distribution. It may well be that, if the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP in the state manages to retain power, it would be more on account of disarray in the Congress camp and less due to the BJP’s popularity.&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The Rajasthan Assembly election is turning out to be more than an electoral contest; at the highest level, it has become a personal fight. The Congress has shrewdly capitalised on its new entrant Manvendra Singh’s desire for revenge against the Bharatiya Janata Party for having sidelined him as well as his father since 2014.

The Rajasthan Assembly election is turning out to be more than an electoral contest; at the highest level, it has become a personal fight. The Congress has shrewdly capitalised on its new entrant Manvendra Singh’s desire for revenge against the Bharatiya Janata Party for having sidelined him as well as his father since 2014. After his recent arrival to the Congress, Manvendra Singh had expressed disinterest in contesting the Assembly poll, preferring to keep his ammunition dry for the 2019 Lok Sabha battle. But the party’s high command successfully played on his hurt and persuaded him to not just fight the immediate battle but also take on incumbent chief minister Vasundhara Raje in her backyard, Jhalrapatan. Four years ago, Vasundhara Raje had worked hard to ensure the defeat of Manvendra Singh’s father and then veteran BJP leader Jaswant Singh, who had contested as an independent candidate after the BJP denied him a ticket. Interestingly, the ticket had gone to Col Sonaram, who had crossed over to the party from the Congress and was backed by Vasundhara Raje. And, although Manvendra Singh had continued thereafter as a BJP legislator, he was kept at an arm’s distance by Vasundhara Raje — whose clout ensured that he remained cut off from the party’s central leadership too. The personal clash between Raje and Jaswant Singh’s family goes back even earlier. In 2007, Jaswant Singh’s wife had filed a case in court against the depiction of Vasundhara Raje as a goddess in one of the posters and alleged that the image had hurt her religious sentiments. In the same year, the Vasundhara Raje regime had been quick to order a probe into an unsubstantiated allegation that guests at a function hosted by Jaswant Singh had been served with opium-laced milk! Whatever the outcome may be, it is a fact that for now Jhalrapatan is poised for an interesting battle. Manvendra Singh may have preferred a constituency in Barmer for his debut contest as a Congressman, but now he has acquired a pan-Rajasthan image. It cannot be that he is unaware of the pitfalls of a head-on collision with the formidable Chief Minister. If he loses, it will be seen as a grave personal setback; for the Congress, though, it will be just a constituency lost. On the other hand, a victory will strengthen his stature within the Congress. More importantly, though, he will have had his revenge. But the recent developments are unlikely to bring much cheer to the Congress as far as the Rajput vote-bank in the state is concerned. The Congress has fielded just two candidates from the Marwar region, where the Rajput community has a considerable sway. According to media reports, Manvendra Singh felt that the Congress ought to have given tickets to more Rajputs in the region, though he was quick to state that he had not expressed “displeasure” with the party. In contrast, the BJP has given tickets to as many as 10 Rajput candidates from Marwar. The first list the Congress released had in all 12 Rajputs, a number which was less than even the seats that the Brahmins got. The second list of 40 odd candidates did not improve the position. Personal rivalry is at play elsewhere too. Sitting Member of Parliament Harish Chandra Meena has joined the Congress, and one reason for his switchover is his opposition to Kirori Lal Meena, who is now in the BJP camp. The two heavyweight Meena leaders could not see eye to eye, with each working overtime to project themselves as the real leader of the community. For the Congress, it’s a welcome development since it could solidify the Meena community’s support for the Congress at a time when the former was feeling left out with the Congress making overtures to its traditional political rivals, the Gujjars and the Jats. It is possible that Sachin Pilot, a Gujjar, could benefit from this Meena- Gujjar combine development (if it works out), given that he is being talked of as a chief ministerial candidate and would be contesting the Assembly poll. But there is a catch. Senior Congress leader Ashok Gehlot, the other strong contender for chief ministership in case the Congress wins, too is fighting the election. More significantly, the first list of candidates released by the party is said to be loaded in his favour, since many of the names he recommended strongly have found favour with the party’s high command. For now, though, both Pilot and Gehlot have to tackle internal dissensions over ticket distribution. It may well be that, if the Vasundhara Raje-led BJP in the state manages to retain power, it would be more on account of disarray in the Congress camp and less due to the BJP’s popularity. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Battle in Rajasthan isn’t merely about personalities; it’s deeply personal too 

We promise to build gaushalas in all panchayats. We promise to start commercial production of gaumutra (cow urine). These are not statements culled out from a political speech of UP’s BJP chief minister Yogi Adityanath. These are not guidelines from the Sangh Pariwar elder to a BJP functionary.&nbsp;

The two statements are part and parcel of the Congress manifesto for the impending state Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh.

The Congress released the manifesto in Bhopal last Saturday. Those present on the occasion included party seniors Kamal Nath, in-charge of the Congress campaign in MP, two-time chief minister of the state Digvijaya Singh, and former Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, one of the lead campaigners and among the party’s top choices for the chief minister.

The Congress, in its manifesto, has also promised to build more cow sanctuaries and provide grants for their upkeep and maintenance. This in a state that boasts of developing the first cow sanctuary, whose foundation was laid by the RSS Kshetra sanghchalak Ashok Soni.

Expounding on the virtues of the manifesto that has strong shades of saffron and could have been mistaken for a BJP manifesto, Rajinder Singh — in charge of the party’s manifesto committee and deputy speaker in the state Assembly — made it clear the Congress wants to shed its pro-Muslim image.&nbsp;

“The BJP used to brand us as Muslim party. Earlier we did not do anything to change the perception. It’s a conscious decision to do away with that tag,” Rajinder Singh told a correspondent.

The party has been out of power in the state for 15 years and is seemingly desperate for homecoming. Surely, the Congress would like to exploit the anti-incumbency sentiments against the BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan government. But the party seems unsure whether its traditional secular tag shall help it romp home and wrest the state from its arch-rival, the BJP, which has vowed for a ‘Congress-mukt’ new India it engineers to construct.

Is it the fear of getting irrelevant that Congress is out to soak up in a hue of saffron, hitherto an exclusive domain of the BJP. Going by the manifesto’s contents, party leaders’ replies and party president Rahul Gandhi’s discovery of Hinduism (he started his MP campaign with a visit to Mahakaleshwar temple in Ujjain) the answer certainly seems to be in the affirmative.&nbsp;

Though on the face of it, the Congress shall loathe to discard the secular tag completely, but it feels there is a symbiotic relationship in being secular and being a ‘pro-Muslim.’ It’s the latter image it wants to shed for electoral gains, though it remains to be seen how the party shall uncouple the two.

But the more important question is this: Is the Congress well on its way to becoming a BJP? Is the party square with the fact that it ignored majority sentiments all along? Is it also the admittance of a sort of guilt that it didn’t do itself any good electorally by ignoring the majority sentiments thus far? So, was there merit in BJP’s long-standing accusation that Congress politics has always been about minority appeasement?

The Congress manifesto isn’t just about the cows. The manifesto promises to build a religious tourism corridor in the state by invoking Ram and rivers, some of which are considered holy in India. While the BJP bares its teeth in preparation to reclaim Ram’s birthplace in the disputed Ayodhya site for the Hindus, the Congress has found a MP connect with Ram of Ayodhya fame. According to scriptures, Ram left his imprints in the state, a slice of mythology that has not been popularised. The party has promised to develop ‘Ram Path Gaman’, a corridor that traces the route of Ram during exile in Chitrakoot, MP.

In fact, for all its manifest appropriation of Ram and rivers (Ganga and Saryu — UP CM Yogi Adityanath has started Saryu aarti on the same lines as Ganga aarti in Varanasi, along with Saryu Mahotsav) by the BJP, the Congress wants to replicate a similar model around these two symbols of Hindu faith in MP too.

If voted to power, the party manifesto promises to come up with Ma Narmada Nyas Adhinayam and develop a Narmada parikrama (circumambulation) route dotted with resting places for pilgrims every 15 km.

Congress’ dalliance with soft Hindutva since the days of the return of Indira Gandhi to power post- Emergency is an open secret. Rajiv Gandhi pushed that envelope further by opening the gates of the disputed site at Ayodhya.

PV Narasimha Rao was prime minister when the mosque was brought down. After the humiliating 2014 Lok Sabha defeat and a series of setbacks in the Assembly polls, Rahul set out to discover himself anew and found nirvana in wearing a janeu (holy thread) and going on a temple-hopping spree.

There is no gainsaying the fact when Rahul claims “country’s temples are not the sole property of the BJP and the RSS”. But tapping into identity politics by exploiting symbols of religion and faith to appear as a contender in the battle of competing for majoritarianism has its own pitfalls, some of which have blown up in the face of the idea of India, as our constitutional forefathers had envisaged. 
&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-congress-and-cow-nationalism-2685737">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

 
 
&nbsp;

We promise to build gaushalas in all panchayats. We promise to start commercial production of gaumutra (cow urine). These are not statements culled out from a political speech of UP’s BJP chief minister Yogi Adityanath.

We promise to build gaushalas in all panchayats. We promise to start commercial production of gaumutra (cow urine). These are not statements culled out from a political speech of UP’s BJP chief minister Yogi Adityanath. These are not guidelines from the Sangh Pariwar elder to a BJP functionary. The two statements are part and parcel of the Congress manifesto for the impending state Assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh. The Congress released the manifesto in Bhopal last Saturday. Those present on the occasion included party seniors Kamal Nath, in-charge of the Congress campaign in MP, two-time chief minister of the state Digvijaya Singh, and former Union minister Jyotiraditya Scindia, one of the lead campaigners and among the party’s top choices for the chief minister. The Congress, in its manifesto, has also promised to build more cow sanctuaries and provide grants for their upkeep and maintenance. This in a state that boasts of developing the first cow sanctuary, whose foundation was laid by the RSS Kshetra sanghchalak Ashok Soni. Expounding on the virtues of the manifesto that has strong shades of saffron and could have been mistaken for a BJP manifesto, Rajinder Singh — in charge of the party’s manifesto committee and deputy speaker in the state Assembly — made it clear the Congress wants to shed its pro-Muslim image. “The BJP used to brand us as Muslim party. Earlier we did not do anything to change the perception. It’s a conscious decision to do away with that tag,” Rajinder Singh told a correspondent. The party has been out of power in the state for 15 years and is seemingly desperate for homecoming. Surely, the Congress would like to exploit the anti-incumbency sentiments against the BJP’s Shivraj Singh Chouhan government. But the party seems unsure whether its traditional secular tag shall help it romp home and wrest the state from its arch-rival, the BJP, which has vowed for a ‘Congress-mukt’ new India it engineers to construct. Is it the fear of getting irrelevant that Congress is out to soak up in a hue of saffron, hitherto an exclusive domain of the BJP. Going by the manifesto’s contents, party leaders’ replies and party president Rahul Gandhi’s discovery of Hinduism (he started his MP campaign with a visit to Mahakaleshwar temple in Ujjain) the answer certainly seems to be in the affirmative. Though on the face of it, the Congress shall loathe to discard the secular tag completely, but it feels there is a symbiotic relationship in being secular and being a ‘pro-Muslim.’ It’s the latter image it wants to shed for electoral gains, though it remains to be seen how the party shall uncouple the two. But the more important question is this: Is the Congress well on its way to becoming a BJP? Is the party square with the fact that it ignored majority sentiments all along? Is it also the admittance of a sort of guilt that it didn’t do itself any good electorally by ignoring the majority sentiments thus far? So, was there merit in BJP’s long-standing accusation that Congress politics has always been about minority appeasement? The Congress manifesto isn’t just about the cows. The manifesto promises to build a religious tourism corridor in the state by invoking Ram and rivers, some of which are considered holy in India. While the BJP bares its teeth in preparation to reclaim Ram’s birthplace in the disputed Ayodhya site for the Hindus, the Congress has found a MP connect with Ram of Ayodhya fame. According to scriptures, Ram left his imprints in the state, a slice of mythology that has not been popularised. The party has promised to develop ‘Ram Path Gaman’, a corridor that traces the route of Ram during exile in Chitrakoot, MP. In fact, for all its manifest appropriation of Ram and rivers (Ganga and Saryu — UP CM Yogi Adityanath has started Saryu aarti on the same lines as Ganga aarti in Varanasi, along with Saryu Mahotsav) by the BJP, the Congress wants to replicate a similar model around these two symbols of Hindu faith in MP too. If voted to power, the party manifesto promises to come up with Ma Narmada Nyas Adhinayam and develop a Narmada parikrama (circumambulation) route dotted with resting places for pilgrims every 15 km. Congress’ dalliance with soft Hindutva since the days of the return of Indira Gandhi to power post- Emergency is an open secret. Rajiv Gandhi pushed that envelope further by opening the gates of the disputed site at Ayodhya. PV Narasimha Rao was prime minister when the mosque was brought down. After the humiliating 2014 Lok Sabha defeat and a series of setbacks in the Assembly polls, Rahul set out to discover himself anew and found nirvana in wearing a janeu (holy thread) and going on a temple-hopping spree. There is no gainsaying the fact when Rahul claims “country’s temples are not the sole property of the BJP and the RSS”. But tapping into identity politics by exploiting symbols of religion and faith to appear as a contender in the battle of competing for majoritarianism has its own pitfalls, some of which have blown up in the face of the idea of India, as our constitutional forefathers had envisaged. (This article was originally published on DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Assembly elections 2018: Congress and cow nationalism

Sporadic violence notwithstanding, a 70 per cent voter turnout, in phase one of the Chhattisgarh Assembly polls, has already squared the triangular electoral contest in favour of democracy.&nbsp;

Braving Maoist threats, the young and old, men and women, students and teachers, industrialists and farmers, the traders and the unemployed queued up since early morning at poll stations across the 18 Assembly segments, including 10 extremely sensitive areas in the restive Bastar region, which witnessed polling on Monday.

While political parties were quick to react to the poll statistics and used them as proof of their victory claims, those in the know opine that the high voter turnout is a result of confidence-building measures, employed in the run-up to the elections, and reflects the aspirations of people who have long borne the brunt of the nation’s war with Maoist extremism.

Left-wing extremists have a history of disrupting polls and the ongoing election season is no exception. Not long ago, the Sal-covered forests on the southern margins of the poll-bound state echoed with Maoist diktats, threatening to chop off hands and fingers of citizens participating in the elections.

Responding to the threat, security agencies placed a one-lakh-strong contingent, including central paramilitaries, and pressed IAF and BSF choppers into service to airlift poll officials to remote areas. As a precautionary measure, voting in 10 constituencies commenced at 7 am and concluded at 3 pm.

The first phase polls saw 187 candidates vie for 18 seats, including 12 in the Bastar division. The region, with a large tribal population, is widely regarded as a citadel of the Opposition Congress, which has been counting on anti-incumbency to bounce back to power after a gap of 15 years.

The Congress currently holds 12 of these 18 seats and poll pundits say that a success in the opening phase is of paramount importance for the Opposition if it is to stop Chief Minister, &nbsp;Raman Singh, from leading the ruling BJP to a fourth consecutive victory in the state.

Singh, an Ayurveda physician by profession, was also in the poll fray from Rajnandgaon where the nomination of his main opponent, Congress candidate Karuna Shukla, had come as a surprise to many. Shukla is a BJP stalwart and former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s niece.

Interestingly, Shukla had joined the Congress months before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and contested the Bilaspur parliamentary seat. Her campaign, however, failed to find resonance with voters in the BJP bastion and ended in a massive defeat.

Politics in Chhattisgarh has traditionally been centered around arch-rivals BJP and Congress and the presence of former chief minister Ajit Jogi-led Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (J) has added a fresh dimension to the ongoing two-phase contest.

Jogi, a former Congressman and first Chief Minister of the state, had pulled the proverbial rug from under a characteristically complacent Congress’ feet by forging a pre-poll alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party and the CPI.

The move is seen as a huge setback for the Congress not just in Chhattisgarh and neighbouring Madhya Pradesh, but is also likely to impact alliance parleys between the grand old party and the BSP in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

If the word on the street is to be believed, the Jogi manoeuvre is sure to add to the woes of the Congress, which is still struggling to find its feet since the bloody massacre of several of its frontline leaders, at the hands of Maoist insurgents, in the Darbha valley of Sukma district on May 25, 2013.

Salwa Judum founder, Mahendra Karma, was among those killed on that fateful day. His widow, Devti Karma is seeking a second consecutive term from Dantewada on a Congress ticket. Her son, Chhavindra, had sought the seat for himself and even filed his nomination as an SP candidate before withdrawing from the contest in favour of his mother.

Marring the polls, an improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated, by Maoists, minutes before polling could commence in Dantewada. IEDs were also recovered in Bijapur and Sukma districts. Five Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (COBRA) personnel sustained injuries and an equal number of Maoist rebels were killed in two separate incidents in Bijapur. &nbsp;

The fate of their candidates and challenges recorded and sealed in electronic voting machines (EVMs), political parties have returned to the campaign trail for the second phase polls for the remaining 72 seats in the 90-member state Assembly.

Security personnel will move on to new locations and challenges. Election candidates, over the next few weeks, will have little to do besides indulging in number crunching and clutching at straws.&nbsp;

Life in Chhattisgarh’s red zone, too, will return to its everyday pace and routine, but residents are bound to wonder if the brave but silent articulation of their democratic and development aspirations has been noted by those who matter and more importantly if their fragile optimism will translate into the change they deserve. Que sera sera.

(This article was originally published on DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-voters-counter-maoist-threat-2685373">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

Sporadic violence notwithstanding, a 70 per cent voter turnout, in phase one of the Chhattisgarh Assembly polls, has already squared the triangular electoral contest in favour of democracy.

Sporadic violence notwithstanding, a 70 per cent voter turnout, in phase one of the Chhattisgarh Assembly polls, has already squared the triangular electoral contest in favour of democracy. Braving Maoist threats, the young and old, men and women, students and teachers, industrialists and farmers, the traders and the unemployed queued up since early morning at poll stations across the 18 Assembly segments, including 10 extremely sensitive areas in the restive Bastar region, which witnessed polling on Monday. While political parties were quick to react to the poll statistics and used them as proof of their victory claims, those in the know opine that the high voter turnout is a result of confidence-building measures, employed in the run-up to the elections, and reflects the aspirations of people who have long borne the brunt of the nation’s war with Maoist extremism. Left-wing extremists have a history of disrupting polls and the ongoing election season is no exception. Not long ago, the Sal-covered forests on the southern margins of the poll-bound state echoed with Maoist diktats, threatening to chop off hands and fingers of citizens participating in the elections. Responding to the threat, security agencies placed a one-lakh-strong contingent, including central paramilitaries, and pressed IAF and BSF choppers into service to airlift poll officials to remote areas. As a precautionary measure, voting in 10 constituencies commenced at 7 am and concluded at 3 pm. The first phase polls saw 187 candidates vie for 18 seats, including 12 in the Bastar division. The region, with a large tribal population, is widely regarded as a citadel of the Opposition Congress, which has been counting on anti-incumbency to bounce back to power after a gap of 15 years. The Congress currently holds 12 of these 18 seats and poll pundits say that a success in the opening phase is of paramount importance for the Opposition if it is to stop Chief Minister, Raman Singh, from leading the ruling BJP to a fourth consecutive victory in the state. Singh, an Ayurveda physician by profession, was also in the poll fray from Rajnandgaon where the nomination of his main opponent, Congress candidate Karuna Shukla, had come as a surprise to many. Shukla is a BJP stalwart and former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s niece. Interestingly, Shukla had joined the Congress months before the 2014 Lok Sabha elections and contested the Bilaspur parliamentary seat. Her campaign, however, failed to find resonance with voters in the BJP bastion and ended in a massive defeat. Politics in Chhattisgarh has traditionally been centered around arch-rivals BJP and Congress and the presence of former chief minister Ajit Jogi-led Janata Congress Chhattisgarh (J) has added a fresh dimension to the ongoing two-phase contest. Jogi, a former Congressman and first Chief Minister of the state, had pulled the proverbial rug from under a characteristically complacent Congress’ feet by forging a pre-poll alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party and the CPI. The move is seen as a huge setback for the Congress not just in Chhattisgarh and neighbouring Madhya Pradesh, but is also likely to impact alliance parleys between the grand old party and the BSP in the run-up to the Lok Sabha elections in 2019. If the word on the street is to be believed, the Jogi manoeuvre is sure to add to the woes of the Congress, which is still struggling to find its feet since the bloody massacre of several of its frontline leaders, at the hands of Maoist insurgents, in the Darbha valley of Sukma district on May 25, 2013. Salwa Judum founder, Mahendra Karma, was among those killed on that fateful day. His widow, Devti Karma is seeking a second consecutive term from Dantewada on a Congress ticket. Her son, Chhavindra, had sought the seat for himself and even filed his nomination as an SP candidate before withdrawing from the contest in favour of his mother. Marring the polls, an improvised explosive device (IED) was detonated, by Maoists, minutes before polling could commence in Dantewada. IEDs were also recovered in Bijapur and Sukma districts. Five Commando Battalion for Resolute Action (COBRA) personnel sustained injuries and an equal number of Maoist rebels were killed in two separate incidents in Bijapur. The fate of their candidates and challenges recorded and sealed in electronic voting machines (EVMs), political parties have returned to the campaign trail for the second phase polls for the remaining 72 seats in the 90-member state Assembly. Security personnel will move on to new locations and challenges. Election candidates, over the next few weeks, will have little to do besides indulging in number crunching and clutching at straws. Life in Chhattisgarh’s red zone, too, will return to its everyday pace and routine, but residents are bound to wonder if the brave but silent articulation of their democratic and development aspirations has been noted by those who matter and more importantly if their fragile optimism will translate into the change they deserve. Que sera sera. (This article was originally published on DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Assembly elections 2018: Voters counter Maoist threat in Chhattisgarh

The potential of a third force emerging in Madhya Pradesh as a result of the widespread anger and rage, especially among the officers, employees and the youth belonging to the unreserved category, who are feeling the brunt and suffering due to the caste-based system of reservation in jobs, educational institutions and promotion, has got frittered away by the narrow political ambitions some people who recently joined Sapaks Samaj.

Sapaks Samaj is a body of citizens crusading against the quota system since 2016, and have brazenly tried to hijack the social outfit to meet their narrow political ends by getting a political party registered by the same name as Sapaks (Sapaks has become a brand to reckon with and is the popular abbreviation for “Samanya Pichda Alpsankhyak Kalyan Samaj Sanstha”).&nbsp;

This has not only spread confusion as people are wondering whether Sapaks, the social organisation, is now doing politics. It has also split the Sapaks&nbsp;movement into two.

What’s added fuel to fire is the role played by another outfit - Samanya Pichda Alpsankhyak Varg Adhikari Karmchari Sanstha - formed about three years ago by state government officers and employees. It is also called Sapaks.&nbsp;

The network of those actively associated with this organisation, which is caught in a legal wrangle in the Supreme Court over the Madhya Pradesh provision for Reservation in promotion has worked overtime to generate resources and build the support base for Sapaks Party before its registration.&nbsp;

This was evident during the September 30 rally in Bhopal organised jointly by the two Sapaks organisations much before the registration of Sapaks Party. As a consequence of this, the momentum gained by Sapaks over the last two years will now take several years to repair the damage that has been caused to the Movement against reservation in Madhya Pradesh. The Sapaks Movement had touched its peak on September 6 when the response to the call for the nation-wide bandh against the amendment to the SC/ST Atrocities Act was total in Madhya Pradesh.

Meanwhile, the two main political rivals in MP -&nbsp;Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress, are fighting their own battles&nbsp;during the final lap of electioneering before polling on November 28. Their immediate crisis is linked to the rebel factor. &nbsp;On this count, while the Congress leaders are claiming that the problem vis-a-vis the rebels is under control, the BJP is finding the going tough. Sartaj Singh, a former Union Minister, who had once defeated Congress senior late Arjun Singh in the Hoshangabd parliamentary constituency and was recently dropped from the State Cabinet by Shivraj Singh Chouhan, is now fighting on a Congress ticket.&nbsp;

Former state minister Ramkrishna Kusmaria has also turned rebel. After efforts to bring him on track by state BJP President Rakesh Singh and general secretary in-charge organisational affairs Suhas Bhagat failed, Kusmaria even refused to meet national vice president of the party Prabhat Jha on Tuesday. Raghavji, a long-term state finance minister, who was shown the door after he was booked and arrested on the charge of sexually exploiting his male servant in July 2013, has filed his papers as a Sapaks party candidate.

Senior BJP managers have been in touch with him to dissuade him from taking this course. Former Gwalior Mayor Samiksha Gupta is among so many others who have distanced themselves from the BJP and have filed their nomination papers and entered the election fray as independent candidates.&nbsp;

Besides the third force, the rebel factor, and candidates belonging to the Samajwadi Party, Aam Aadmi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, a large number of Independent candidates are hopeful of reaping a big harvest of seats in as there is also a deep undercurrent of anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh. The anger against Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is overflowing in Budhni, which happens to be his home turf and constituency. A video showing a village woman shouting at the chief minister’s wife Sadhna Singh, for poor availability of water, when she had gone campaigning at her doorstep has gone viral.&nbsp;

Of course, enthused by this is former state Congress President Arun Yadav, who has been pitted against the chief minister in Budhni by the Congress party.

The BJP leaders are discounting all these angles. They are affirming that the RSS cadres would now work with the vengeance and play a huge role in converting votes in favour of the BJP since the Congress manifesto has raised a huge controversy by targeting the RSS and demanding that government servants be kept out of its reach. 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

The potential of a third force emerging in Madhya Pradesh as a result of the widespread anger and rage, especially among the officers, employees and the youth belonging to the unreserved category, who are feeling the brunt and suffering due to the caste-based system of reservation in jobs, educational institutions and promotion, has got frittered away by the narrow political ambitions some people who recently joined Sapaks Samaj.

The potential of a third force emerging in Madhya Pradesh as a result of the widespread anger and rage, especially among the officers, employees and the youth belonging to the unreserved category, who are feeling the brunt and suffering due to the caste-based system of reservation in jobs, educational institutions and promotion, has got frittered away by the narrow political ambitions some people who recently joined Sapaks Samaj. Sapaks Samaj is a body of citizens crusading against the quota system since 2016, and have brazenly tried to hijack the social outfit to meet their narrow political ends by getting a political party registered by the same name as Sapaks (Sapaks has become a brand to reckon with and is the popular abbreviation for “Samanya Pichda Alpsankhyak Kalyan Samaj Sanstha”). This has not only spread confusion as people are wondering whether Sapaks, the social organisation, is now doing politics. It has also split the Sapaks movement into two. What’s added fuel to fire is the role played by another outfit - Samanya Pichda Alpsankhyak Varg Adhikari Karmchari Sanstha - formed about three years ago by state government officers and employees. It is also called Sapaks. The network of those actively associated with this organisation, which is caught in a legal wrangle in the Supreme Court over the Madhya Pradesh provision for Reservation in promotion has worked overtime to generate resources and build the support base for Sapaks Party before its registration. This was evident during the September 30 rally in Bhopal organised jointly by the two Sapaks organisations much before the registration of Sapaks Party. As a consequence of this, the momentum gained by Sapaks over the last two years will now take several years to repair the damage that has been caused to the Movement against reservation in Madhya Pradesh. The Sapaks Movement had touched its peak on September 6 when the response to the call for the nation-wide bandh against the amendment to the SC/ST Atrocities Act was total in Madhya Pradesh. Meanwhile, the two main political rivals in MP - Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress, are fighting their own battles during the final lap of electioneering before polling on November 28. Their immediate crisis is linked to the rebel factor. On this count, while the Congress leaders are claiming that the problem vis-a-vis the rebels is under control, the BJP is finding the going tough. Sartaj Singh, a former Union Minister, who had once defeated Congress senior late Arjun Singh in the Hoshangabd parliamentary constituency and was recently dropped from the State Cabinet by Shivraj Singh Chouhan, is now fighting on a Congress ticket. Former state minister Ramkrishna Kusmaria has also turned rebel. After efforts to bring him on track by state BJP President Rakesh Singh and general secretary in-charge organisational affairs Suhas Bhagat failed, Kusmaria even refused to meet national vice president of the party Prabhat Jha on Tuesday. Raghavji, a long-term state finance minister, who was shown the door after he was booked and arrested on the charge of sexually exploiting his male servant in July 2013, has filed his papers as a Sapaks party candidate. Senior BJP managers have been in touch with him to dissuade him from taking this course. Former Gwalior Mayor Samiksha Gupta is among so many others who have distanced themselves from the BJP and have filed their nomination papers and entered the election fray as independent candidates. Besides the third force, the rebel factor, and candidates belonging to the Samajwadi Party, Aam Aadmi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party, a large number of Independent candidates are hopeful of reaping a big harvest of seats in as there is also a deep undercurrent of anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh. The anger against Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is overflowing in Budhni, which happens to be his home turf and constituency. A video showing a village woman shouting at the chief minister’s wife Sadhna Singh, for poor availability of water, when she had gone campaigning at her doorstep has gone viral. Of course, enthused by this is former state Congress President Arun Yadav, who has been pitted against the chief minister in Budhni by the Congress party. The BJP leaders are discounting all these angles. They are affirming that the RSS cadres would now work with the vengeance and play a huge role in converting votes in favour of the BJP since the Congress manifesto has raised a huge controversy by targeting the RSS and demanding that government servants be kept out of its reach. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Assembly elections: Third force remains a mirage - BJP and Congress main contenders in MP

The upcoming Mizoram elections are mired in controversies that are unprecedented for the geographically isolated northeastern state. After massive protests against the Chief Electoral Officer, B Shashank, for his alleged overreach in the deployment of 40,000 central forces and allowing Reang (Bru tribe) people living in Tripura to vote in the camps where they live instead of travelling to Mizoram to vote. &nbsp;

These moves were seen by a cross-section of community-based organisations and political parties like the Congress, Mizo National Front and the upstart National People’s Party as dangerous to the stability of Mizoram, a tiny state with just over 11 lakh population. &nbsp;

With 7.68 lakh voters, nearly 70 per cent of the state’s population is registered in electoral rolls making it the only state with such a high percentage of voters. And reflecting the still strong matriarchal tradition in the state, women voters outnumber men with 3. 93 lakh women voters as opposed to 374,496 men.&nbsp;

The 40-seat Mizoram assembly is presently dominated by the Congress with 34 MLAs. Its five-term chief minister, Lal Thanhawla has been exuding confidence and has assured his supporters that the party will retain the 34 seats in the November 28 Assembly elections. Mizoram is the only Congress-ruled state in the Northeast.&nbsp; 
 
And, if Thanhawla manages to retain power then he would successfully defeat BJP’s goal of making northeast free from Congress. After Meghalaya, Nagaland, Arunachala, Manipur, and Tripura, the BJP is gunning for Mizoram, and it is this saffron onslaught that has made this election the most unpredictable.

The Controversy over Brus’ voting&nbsp;

Over 32,000 Brus live in different relief camps in neighbouring Tripura. Following ethnic clashes two decades ago, these Bru refugees who are also known as Reangs, had to flee Mizoram. However, nearly 40,000 Brus continue to live in Mizoram. In the past, those Brus who fled, and, who now live in unhygienic conditions in relief camps in Tripura were allowed to cast their votes through postal ballots and in booths set up especially for them inside Mizoram.&nbsp;

What Chief Electoral Officer wanted was to have nearly 12,000 Bru voters cast their votes within the camps in Tripura itself. This led to a serious concern among Mizo groups who fear that the polling of votes in these camps could lead to malpractices like the use of money and muscle power. &nbsp;

The mistrust of Mizo groups also stems from the BJP’s changed policy towards refugee groups like the Brus. Besides this issue, the Mizo groups also fear that massive deployment of central forces may lead to intimidation of locals who still remember the bloody decades of insurgency in Mizoram in the 1960s and 1970s.&nbsp;

For the 40-seat Mizoram assembly, a total of 211 candidates have filed nominations. Besides the ruling Congress, and the opposition Mizo National Front (MNF), BJP too has fielded contestants in all 40 constituencies. The Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) is fighting on 35 seats, and another smaller ethnic-based party, the Zoram Thar has put up 24 candidates.&nbsp; 
 
The National People’s Party (NPP), widely expected to put up a good fight, has decided to contest nine seats while the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is contesting in five seats.&nbsp;

With just two weeks to go before polls, the largely rural state is gearing up for a high-stakes battle in which the states are highest for incumbent chief minister Lal Thanhawla of the Congress. Given the unpredictability this time it is difficult to predict if Mizoram will stay with the Congress or like other states in the northeast, it too will become ‘Congress-free’.&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

 
&nbsp;

The upcoming Mizoram elections are mired in controversies that are unprecedented for the geographically isolated northeastern state. After massive protests against the Chief Electoral Officer, B Shashank, for his alleged overreach in the deployment of 40,000 central forces and allowing Reang (Bru tribe) people living in Tripura to vote in the camps where they live instead of travelling to Mizoram to vote.

The upcoming Mizoram elections are mired in controversies that are unprecedented for the geographically isolated northeastern state. After massive protests against the Chief Electoral Officer, B Shashank, for his alleged overreach in the deployment of 40,000 central forces and allowing Reang (Bru tribe) people living in Tripura to vote in the camps where they live instead of travelling to Mizoram to vote. These moves were seen by a cross-section of community-based organisations and political parties like the Congress, Mizo National Front and the upstart National People’s Party as dangerous to the stability of Mizoram, a tiny state with just over 11 lakh population. With 7.68 lakh voters, nearly 70 per cent of the state’s population is registered in electoral rolls making it the only state with such a high percentage of voters. And reflecting the still strong matriarchal tradition in the state, women voters outnumber men with 3. 93 lakh women voters as opposed to 374,496 men. The 40-seat Mizoram assembly is presently dominated by the Congress with 34 MLAs. Its five-term chief minister, Lal Thanhawla has been exuding confidence and has assured his supporters that the party will retain the 34 seats in the November 28 Assembly elections. Mizoram is the only Congress-ruled state in the Northeast. And, if Thanhawla manages to retain power then he would successfully defeat BJP’s goal of making northeast free from Congress. After Meghalaya, Nagaland, Arunachala, Manipur, and Tripura, the BJP is gunning for Mizoram, and it is this saffron onslaught that has made this election the most unpredictable. The Controversy over Brus’ voting Over 32,000 Brus live in different relief camps in neighbouring Tripura. Following ethnic clashes two decades ago, these Bru refugees who are also known as Reangs, had to flee Mizoram. However, nearly 40,000 Brus continue to live in Mizoram. In the past, those Brus who fled, and, who now live in unhygienic conditions in relief camps in Tripura were allowed to cast their votes through postal ballots and in booths set up especially for them inside Mizoram. What Chief Electoral Officer wanted was to have nearly 12,000 Bru voters cast their votes within the camps in Tripura itself. This led to a serious concern among Mizo groups who fear that the polling of votes in these camps could lead to malpractices like the use of money and muscle power. The mistrust of Mizo groups also stems from the BJP’s changed policy towards refugee groups like the Brus. Besides this issue, the Mizo groups also fear that massive deployment of central forces may lead to intimidation of locals who still remember the bloody decades of insurgency in Mizoram in the 1960s and 1970s. For the 40-seat Mizoram assembly, a total of 211 candidates have filed nominations. Besides the ruling Congress, and the opposition Mizo National Front (MNF), BJP too has fielded contestants in all 40 constituencies. The Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) is fighting on 35 seats, and another smaller ethnic-based party, the Zoram Thar has put up 24 candidates. The National People’s Party (NPP), widely expected to put up a good fight, has decided to contest nine seats while the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) is contesting in five seats. With just two weeks to go before polls, the largely rural state is gearing up for a high-stakes battle in which the states are highest for incumbent chief minister Lal Thanhawla of the Congress. Given the unpredictability this time it is difficult to predict if Mizoram will stay with the Congress or like other states in the northeast, it too will become ‘Congress-free’. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Assembly elections 2018: Mizoram’s tryst with destiny

When there is a wave in favour of or against the ruler or the main Opposition in elections, the presence of smaller parties, either in their individual capacities or as loosely-held coalitions, barely makes a difference to the end result. But these smaller outfits become important in the absence of a wave, and when there is anti-incumbency. The smaller players can alter outcomes in quite a few constituencies, either leading to gains or losses for the principal contestants. The situation in Rajasthan is that of the latter.&nbsp;

The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party are locked in a more or less direct fight across the state for the Assembly elections. While the Congress has been appealing for a broad-based alliance in the country to take on the Modi government in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, it has decided to fight the Rajasthan poll on its own strength. Half-hearted attempts had been made to align with the Bahujan Samaj Party, but after BSP supremo Mayawati announced her decision, not to partner with the Congress, the efforts came to an end. &nbsp;

Subsequent developments have thrown up two different arrangements that seek to take on both the Congress and the BJP. Six parties, comprising most of the Left, the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Samajwadi Party, have come together. They are now trying to woo the BSP and the Aam Aadmi Party into the fold since they are open to all “non-BJP and non-Congress” outfits. Meanwhile, Jat leader Hanuman Beniwal has launched the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, while veteran politician Ghanshyam Tiwari, who quit the BJP recently, has floated the Bharat Vahini Party. It is possible that the two outfits could strike a deal to contest together. So far so good. What was puzzling was the presence of leaders of the Samajwadi Party — part of the other, Left-led combine. Thus, it’s still unclear whether the Samajwadi Party will go along with the Left-led grouping or with the Beniwal-Tiwari combine.&nbsp;

But with less than a month left for the election, these parties do not have the luxury to wait to firm up alliances. The BSP and the AAP have already announced the names of their candidates for some constituencies, with both seemingly determined to contest on their own. The Aam Aadmi Party’s local unit claimed that it had sounded out various opposition leaders about a possible alliance to take on both the Congress and the BJP, but had received no encouraging response, which is why it was going alone; the party has already announced more than 60 candidates. Despite these developments, every party is still hoping for a “positive outcome” in attempts to forge an anti-BJP/anti-Congress formation.&nbsp;

The Congress believes that it is in a strong position to oust the BJP and will not need the help of smaller outfits. But it must keep in kind the 2008 situation when the Congress had fallen short of the majority mark by six seats and had to seek the support of BSP Legislators to enable the formation of a government led by Ashok Gehlot. There are more than two dozen seats where the smaller parties have considerable hold and can mar the Congress’s prospects by dividing votes and enhancing the BJP’s chances. In the 2013 Assembly election, when the BJP triumphed decisively, the BSP had still managed to muster more than seven per cent of the vote-share.&nbsp;

The indecisiveness of the new parties in striking more broad-based alliances should ordinarily have been good news for the BJP. But it is not so in the given situation. The party is actually banking on a decent enough performance of these outfits because it believes that the votes they can steal would be largely from the Congress, although it’s possible that some damage could be caused to it as well.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Even if the new formulations dent the Congress’s prospects, will that be enough for the BJP to pull through in Rajasthan? Nearly every poll survey so far has projected a comfortable win for the Congress. For the BJP and its Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, the one hope for a turnaround is Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even poll pundits acknowledge that the mood can change in the state once Modi gets into campaign mode there. The million dollar question is: Can even Modi save the BJP in Rajasthan this time around?&nbsp;

&nbsp;(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

When there is a wave in favour of or against the ruler or the main Opposition in elections, the presence of smaller parties, either in their individual capacities or as loosely-held coalitions, barely makes a difference to the end result.

When there is a wave in favour of or against the ruler or the main Opposition in elections, the presence of smaller parties, either in their individual capacities or as loosely-held coalitions, barely makes a difference to the end result. But these smaller outfits become important in the absence of a wave, and when there is anti-incumbency. The smaller players can alter outcomes in quite a few constituencies, either leading to gains or losses for the principal contestants. The situation in Rajasthan is that of the latter. The Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party are locked in a more or less direct fight across the state for the Assembly elections. While the Congress has been appealing for a broad-based alliance in the country to take on the Modi government in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, it has decided to fight the Rajasthan poll on its own strength. Half-hearted attempts had been made to align with the Bahujan Samaj Party, but after BSP supremo Mayawati announced her decision, not to partner with the Congress, the efforts came to an end. Subsequent developments have thrown up two different arrangements that seek to take on both the Congress and the BJP. Six parties, comprising most of the Left, the Janata Dal (Secular) and the Samajwadi Party, have come together. They are now trying to woo the BSP and the Aam Aadmi Party into the fold since they are open to all “non-BJP and non-Congress” outfits. Meanwhile, Jat leader Hanuman Beniwal has launched the Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, while veteran politician Ghanshyam Tiwari, who quit the BJP recently, has floated the Bharat Vahini Party. It is possible that the two outfits could strike a deal to contest together. So far so good. What was puzzling was the presence of leaders of the Samajwadi Party — part of the other, Left-led combine. Thus, it’s still unclear whether the Samajwadi Party will go along with the Left-led grouping or with the Beniwal-Tiwari combine. But with less than a month left for the election, these parties do not have the luxury to wait to firm up alliances. The BSP and the AAP have already announced the names of their candidates for some constituencies, with both seemingly determined to contest on their own. The Aam Aadmi Party’s local unit claimed that it had sounded out various opposition leaders about a possible alliance to take on both the Congress and the BJP, but had received no encouraging response, which is why it was going alone; the party has already announced more than 60 candidates. Despite these developments, every party is still hoping for a “positive outcome” in attempts to forge an anti-BJP/anti-Congress formation. The Congress believes that it is in a strong position to oust the BJP and will not need the help of smaller outfits. But it must keep in kind the 2008 situation when the Congress had fallen short of the majority mark by six seats and had to seek the support of BSP Legislators to enable the formation of a government led by Ashok Gehlot. There are more than two dozen seats where the smaller parties have considerable hold and can mar the Congress’s prospects by dividing votes and enhancing the BJP’s chances. In the 2013 Assembly election, when the BJP triumphed decisively, the BSP had still managed to muster more than seven per cent of the vote-share. The indecisiveness of the new parties in striking more broad-based alliances should ordinarily have been good news for the BJP. But it is not so in the given situation. The party is actually banking on a decent enough performance of these outfits because it believes that the votes they can steal would be largely from the Congress, although it’s possible that some damage could be caused to it as well. Even if the new formulations dent the Congress’s prospects, will that be enough for the BJP to pull through in Rajasthan? Nearly every poll survey so far has projected a comfortable win for the Congress. For the BJP and its Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje, the one hope for a turnaround is Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Even poll pundits acknowledge that the mood can change in the state once Modi gets into campaign mode there. The million dollar question is: Can even Modi save the BJP in Rajasthan this time around? (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Assembly elections: Will regional parties be a spoiler in Rajasthan contest?

Voting has ended in the 18 seats that went to the polls in Chhattisgarh today.&nbsp;Voter turnout was recorded at 70 per cent.&nbsp;

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Voting has ended, turnout is 70% till now in the first phase of <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ChhattisgarhElections2018?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ChhattisgarhElections2018</a>. Figures will be updated later: Umesh Sinha, Election Commission <a href="https://t.co/I26aNS7qB7">pic.twitter.com/I26aNS7qB7</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1061964253488431105?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 12, 2018</a></blockquote>
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This included turnouts of 61.47% in Kondagaon, 63.51% &nbsp;in Keshkal, 62% in Kanker; 58% in Bastar, 49% in Dantewada, 60.5% in Khairagarh, 64% in Dongargarh, and 65.5% in Khujji.

While polling percentages were high — most of the areas mentioned above are in the Naxal-hit districts of southern Chhattisgarh — <a href="http://www.wionews.com/india-news/chhattisgarh-one-ultra-killed-in-encounter-between-security-forces-and-maoists-176612">polling was marred by violence</a>.&nbsp;

Five CRPF personnel were injured and five Maoists killed in an encounter that broke out in Bijapur's Pamed area.&nbsp;

The Maoists had called for a boycott of the polls and had carried out six attacks over the last fortnight.&nbsp;

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After the Nilwaya naxal attack, the challenges have gone up. Naxals had threatened villagers against voting. We assured the villagers of a secure environment, put in place a three level security so that people can vote without fear:CRPF official <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/ChhattisgarhAssemblyElections2018?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#ChhattisgarhAssemblyElections2018</a> <a href="https://t.co/gqV7H5Vb4F">pic.twitter.com/gqV7H5Vb4F</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1061910156584386560?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 12, 2018</a></blockquote>
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&nbsp;

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<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Chhattisgarh?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Chhattisgarh</a>: People in Dantewada's Madenda village cast their votes even after threat from the Naxals to cut their fingers if the ink mark is seen on their fingers. Local says, "there are 263 registered voters in the village and many are voting even after the threat." <a href="https://t.co/WPDYX9OiEs">pic.twitter.com/WPDYX9OiEs</a>
— ANI (@ANI) <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1061910147122061312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 12, 2018</a></blockquote>
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Three of the attacks were major, leaving 13 people dead including a Doordarshan cameraman. The Maoists are not known for attacking journalists but the DD cameraman and his colleagues, who were covering the elections, were travelling with security forces.&nbsp;

One lakh security personnel meanwhile had been deployed in Chhattisgarh for the polls.&nbsp;

The remaining seats in the 90-member house will go to the polls on November 20.&nbsp;

Voting has ended in the 18 seats that went to the polls in Chhattisgarh today. Voter turnout was recorded at 70 per cent. Voting has ended, turnout is 70% till now in the first phase of #ChhattisgarhElections2018.

Voting has ended in the 18 seats that went to the polls in Chhattisgarh today. Voter turnout was recorded at 70 per cent. Voting has ended, turnout is 70% till now in the first phase of #ChhattisgarhElections2018. Figures will be updated later: Umesh Sinha, Election Commission pic.twitter.com/I26aNS7qB7 — ANI (@ANI) November 12, 2018 × This included turnouts of 61.47% in Kondagaon, 63.51% in Keshkal, 62% in Kanker; 58% in Bastar, 49% in Dantewada, 60.5% in Khairagarh, 64% in Dongargarh, and 65.5% in Khujji. While polling percentages were high — most of the areas mentioned above are in the Naxal-hit districts of southern Chhattisgarh — polling was marred by violence. Five CRPF personnel were injured and five Maoists killed in an encounter that broke out in Bijapur's Pamed area. The Maoists had called for a boycott of the polls and had carried out six attacks over the last fortnight. After the Nilwaya naxal attack, the challenges have gone up. Naxals had threatened villagers against voting. We assured the villagers of a secure environment, put in place a three level security so that people can vote without fear:CRPF official #ChhattisgarhAssemblyElections2018 pic.twitter.com/gqV7H5Vb4F — ANI (@ANI) November 12, 2018 × #Chhattisgarh: People in Dantewada's Madenda village cast their votes even after threat from the Naxals to cut their fingers if the ink mark is seen on their fingers. Local says, "there are 263 registered voters in the village and many are voting even after the threat." pic.twitter.com/WPDYX9OiEs — ANI (@ANI) November 12, 2018 × Three of the attacks were major, leaving 13 people dead including a Doordarshan cameraman. The Maoists are not known for attacking journalists but the DD cameraman and his colleagues, who were covering the elections, were travelling with security forces. One lakh security personnel meanwhile had been deployed in Chhattisgarh for the polls. The remaining seats in the 90-member house will go to the polls on November 20.

Chhattisgarh elections: Voter turnout recorded at 70% as 1st phase of polling ends

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan's brother-in-law Sanjay Singh Masani who deserted the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and joined the Congress the other day was declared the party candidate for the Waraseoni constituency on Wednesday.

During his maiden visit to the state Congress headquarters in his new avatar on Sunday, Masani had heaped praises on Madhya Pradesh Congress unit President Kamal Nath and said that Chouhan's 13-year rule is coming to an end.&nbsp;

With barely two days left for the filing of nominations, BJP was struggling with the ticket distribution exercise. Till Thursday morning, the ruling party was still to announce it's nominees for 38 of the total 230 constituencies in Madhya Pradesh.

The state BJP unit has been rocked by a fierce battle for tickets. The prestigious Govindpura constituency in the state capital, which has been represented by former chief minister Babulal Gaur for a record ten terms, is under sharp focus this time. Initially, Gaur was not ready to digest the party's idea of dropping him but with some advice from the 'right quarters', he has agreed to settle for the status of a star campaigner in this election. Gaur's daughter-in-law and former Bhopal Mayor Krishna Gaur also has been pitching for this seat but she has encountered roadblocks as the grassroot party workers began demanding their piece of the cake.&nbsp;

Even the main opposition Congress party has been coping with endless pulls and pressures on the ticket distribution front. The rivalry among the top state Congress leaders had spilled into the open the other day when party seniors Digvijaya Singh and Jyotiraditya Scindia were engaged in a heated argument over the choice of candidates.

Till now the Congress has declared 212 of the 230 candidates in Madhya Pradesh. On Thursday, the penultimate day for filing nomination papers, the Congress party is expected to clear the names for the remaining constituencies.&nbsp;

In the final run-up for elections, what came as a shot in the arm for the newly floated Sapaks Party, was the letter from the Election Commission announcing it's registration on 6 November. Only two days before this, without registration and election symbol, this party had entered into an alliance with another lesser known outfit - Sampurn Samaj Party. This alliance lasted only for a day and even before the EC issued its order, Sapaks Party released its first list of candidates and declared that they would be contesting on a common symbol. Eyebrows are being raised in knowledgeable circles and it is being asked whether or not Sapaks Party had been tipped by some EC insider to walk out of the alliance as its registration had been okayed.&nbsp;

Sapaks Party has been formed by a group of retired officers, mainly led by promotee IAS officers. This party is entering the election on the anti-reservation and the Atrocities Act issue with the tacit support of state government employees, who are also working under the banner of SAPAK to oppose the government provision for reservation in promotion for SCs and STs.&nbsp;

Sapaks Party is projecting itself as a third force in MP's electoral politics. Its claim notwithstanding, the Samajwadi Party, and Bahujan Samaj Party are also in the fray. 
 
Then there are many other untested parties - all shouting from rooftops against reservation and the Atrocities Act. The Sarv Samaj Kalyan Party that has the blessings of renowned kathavachak Devkinandan Thakur completes the full circle. These parties will make the elections in the state rather interesting. 
 
The million dollar question is: Will this election go on caste lines and once more underscore the primacy of vote bank politics or whether the anti-reservation plank would be driving the voters in hordes.&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
 
&nbsp;

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan's brother-in-law Sanjay Singh Masani who deserted the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and joined the Congress the other day was declared the party candidate for the Waraseoni constituency on Wednesday.

Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan's brother-in-law Sanjay Singh Masani who deserted the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and joined the Congress the other day was declared the party candidate for the Waraseoni constituency on Wednesday. During his maiden visit to the state Congress headquarters in his new avatar on Sunday, Masani had heaped praises on Madhya Pradesh Congress unit President Kamal Nath and said that Chouhan's 13-year rule is coming to an end. With barely two days left for the filing of nominations, BJP was struggling with the ticket distribution exercise. Till Thursday morning, the ruling party was still to announce it's nominees for 38 of the total 230 constituencies in Madhya Pradesh. The state BJP unit has been rocked by a fierce battle for tickets. The prestigious Govindpura constituency in the state capital, which has been represented by former chief minister Babulal Gaur for a record ten terms, is under sharp focus this time. Initially, Gaur was not ready to digest the party's idea of dropping him but with some advice from the 'right quarters', he has agreed to settle for the status of a star campaigner in this election. Gaur's daughter-in-law and former Bhopal Mayor Krishna Gaur also has been pitching for this seat but she has encountered roadblocks as the grassroot party workers began demanding their piece of the cake. Even the main opposition Congress party has been coping with endless pulls and pressures on the ticket distribution front. The rivalry among the top state Congress leaders had spilled into the open the other day when party seniors Digvijaya Singh and Jyotiraditya Scindia were engaged in a heated argument over the choice of candidates. Till now the Congress has declared 212 of the 230 candidates in Madhya Pradesh. On Thursday, the penultimate day for filing nomination papers, the Congress party is expected to clear the names for the remaining constituencies. In the final run-up for elections, what came as a shot in the arm for the newly floated Sapaks Party, was the letter from the Election Commission announcing it's registration on 6 November. Only two days before this, without registration and election symbol, this party had entered into an alliance with another lesser known outfit - Sampurn Samaj Party. This alliance lasted only for a day and even before the EC issued its order, Sapaks Party released its first list of candidates and declared that they would be contesting on a common symbol. Eyebrows are being raised in knowledgeable circles and it is being asked whether or not Sapaks Party had been tipped by some EC insider to walk out of the alliance as its registration had been okayed. Sapaks Party has been formed by a group of retired officers, mainly led by promotee IAS officers. This party is entering the election on the anti-reservation and the Atrocities Act issue with the tacit support of state government employees, who are also working under the banner of SAPAK to oppose the government provision for reservation in promotion for SCs and STs. Sapaks Party is projecting itself as a third force in MP's electoral politics. Its claim notwithstanding, the Samajwadi Party, and Bahujan Samaj Party are also in the fray. Then there are many other untested parties - all shouting from rooftops against reservation and the Atrocities Act. The Sarv Samaj Kalyan Party that has the blessings of renowned kathavachak Devkinandan Thakur completes the full circle. These parties will make the elections in the state rather interesting. The million dollar question is: Will this election go on caste lines and once more underscore the primacy of vote bank politics or whether the anti-reservation plank would be driving the voters in hordes. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Assembly elections 2018: Ticket tangle and third force in Madhya Pradesh

For 'Shiv Bhakt' Rahul Gandhi, Diwali, the festival of lights could not have been better. Because it seems, that at least in Karnataka, the BJP wave is over.&nbsp;

Less than six months after the Congress-JD(S) post-poll alliance dashed BJP’s plans of forming a government in the southern state, the alliance has done even better in the bypolls. &nbsp;Out of five seats (3 Lok Sabha and 2 Assembly), the BJP could win only one; BJP managed to retain Shimoga where B S Yeddyurappa’s son B Y Raghavendra defeated the JD(S) candidate with a margin of just over fifty thousand votes. &nbsp;

The&nbsp;victories in Karnataka are a big morale booster for the Congress, ahead of straight contests with the BJP in three important states in the Hindi belt later this month. &nbsp;

The margin of victories in all the four seats won by the Congress-JD(S) speak volumes about the disenchantment that Karnataka’s voters have displayed with the BJP. Even in Bellary, a supposedly impregnable fortress of the BJP, the Congress’s V S Ugrappa scored a ferocious win by defeating mining baron B Sriramalu’s sister J. Shantha by nearly 2.5 lakh votes. In the three other seats as well the alliance partners’ margins are massive. In Mandya, the JD(S) won by over three lakh votes, in Ramnagara Assembly seat by over a lakh, and Congress retained Jamkhandi by polling almost twice the number of votes garnered by BJP. &nbsp;

The BJP’s reaction to the crushing defeats in these bypolls has been muted. The party’s string of spokespersons have so far refrained from even tweeting on the election results. They seem to have been stunned into silence by the shockingly large margins, however, at least in Mandya Lok Sabha seat, the BJP’s vote has doubled from nearly 87,000 to 2.44 lakhs.

Therefore while JD(S)-Congress combine has a lot to celebrate today, it needs to deliver on the promise of loan waiver if it wants to retain the support of the farmers who remain crucial to any election in Karnataka. &nbsp;

Message for Opposition

Even though the Congress-BSP alliance failed to materialise in MP, Chhattisgarh, the Congress and other opposition parties must heed to the key message that the Karnataka voter has delivered: Only a united opposition can defeat the BJP.&nbsp;

However, there is perhaps a more significant message for Rahul Gandhi, the Congress president and his core team. Like in Karnataka, the Congress needs to overcome infighting if it is serious about regaining power in the states. One reason why the BSP-Congress alliance could not be formed in Madhya Pradesh, for instance, is because the state Congress unit is riven with petty factionalism. &nbsp;

With less than two weeks to go before polling, and according to many surveys the Congress still not in a winning position, it would do the grand old party a lot of good if it sent out a clear message of unity among its state leadership and cadres. &nbsp;

Similarly, for states like Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh, the opposition parties need to quickly crystalise their alliances so that their respective rank and file get enough time to prepare on the ground. In UP especially, which has 80 Lok Sabha seats, Mayawati’s BSP and Akhilesh &nbsp;Yadav’s SP have been bitter adversaries. Though they formed strategic tie-ups that succeeded in dislodging BJP from Gorakhpur, and Phulpur Lok Sabha seats, the absence of a visible unity since then has again started the rumour mills of BSP having come to a secret understanding with the BJP.&nbsp;

Similarly, Akhilesh’s problems have been compounded by&nbsp;launch of&nbsp;a new party by his uncle and influential leader, Shivpal Yadav. If the opposition is indeed serious about taking on the BJP in 2019, it first needs to set its own house in order, that is the biggest takeaway of Karnataka bypolls.&nbsp; 
 
 
&nbsp;(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

For 'Shiv Bhakt' Rahul Gandhi, Diwali, the festival of lights could not have been better. Because it seems, that at least in Karnataka, the BJP wave is over. Less than six months after the Congress-JD(S) post-poll alliance dashed BJP’s plans of forming a government in the southern state, the alliance has done even better in the bypolls.

For 'Shiv Bhakt' Rahul Gandhi, Diwali, the festival of lights could not have been better. Because it seems, that at least in Karnataka, the BJP wave is over. Less than six months after the Congress-JD(S) post-poll alliance dashed BJP’s plans of forming a government in the southern state, the alliance has done even better in the bypolls. Out of five seats (3 Lok Sabha and 2 Assembly), the BJP could win only one; BJP managed to retain Shimoga where B S Yeddyurappa’s son B Y Raghavendra defeated the JD(S) candidate with a margin of just over fifty thousand votes. The victories in Karnataka are a big morale booster for the Congress, ahead of straight contests with the BJP in three important states in the Hindi belt later this month. The margin of victories in all the four seats won by the Congress-JD(S) speak volumes about the disenchantment that Karnataka’s voters have displayed with the BJP. Even in Bellary, a supposedly impregnable fortress of the BJP, the Congress’s V S Ugrappa scored a ferocious win by defeating mining baron B Sriramalu’s sister J. Shantha by nearly 2.5 lakh votes. In the three other seats as well the alliance partners’ margins are massive. In Mandya, the JD(S) won by over three lakh votes, in Ramnagara Assembly seat by over a lakh, and Congress retained Jamkhandi by polling almost twice the number of votes garnered by BJP. The BJP’s reaction to the crushing defeats in these bypolls has been muted. The party’s string of spokespersons have so far refrained from even tweeting on the election results. They seem to have been stunned into silence by the shockingly large margins, however, at least in Mandya Lok Sabha seat, the BJP’s vote has doubled from nearly 87,000 to 2.44 lakhs. Therefore while JD(S)-Congress combine has a lot to celebrate today, it needs to deliver on the promise of loan waiver if it wants to retain the support of the farmers who remain crucial to any election in Karnataka. Message for Opposition Even though the Congress-BSP alliance failed to materialise in MP, Chhattisgarh, the Congress and other opposition parties must heed to the key message that the Karnataka voter has delivered: Only a united opposition can defeat the BJP. However, there is perhaps a more significant message for Rahul Gandhi, the Congress president and his core team. Like in Karnataka, the Congress needs to overcome infighting if it is serious about regaining power in the states. One reason why the BSP-Congress alliance could not be formed in Madhya Pradesh, for instance, is because the state Congress unit is riven with petty factionalism. With less than two weeks to go before polling, and according to many surveys the Congress still not in a winning position, it would do the grand old party a lot of good if it sent out a clear message of unity among its state leadership and cadres. Similarly, for states like Bihar, and Uttar Pradesh, the opposition parties need to quickly crystalise their alliances so that their respective rank and file get enough time to prepare on the ground. In UP especially, which has 80 Lok Sabha seats, Mayawati’s BSP and Akhilesh Yadav’s SP have been bitter adversaries. Though they formed strategic tie-ups that succeeded in dislodging BJP from Gorakhpur, and Phulpur Lok Sabha seats, the absence of a visible unity since then has again started the rumour mills of BSP having come to a secret understanding with the BJP. Similarly, Akhilesh’s problems have been compounded by launch of a new party by his uncle and influential leader, Shivpal Yadav. If the opposition is indeed serious about taking on the BJP in 2019, it first needs to set its own house in order, that is the biggest takeaway of Karnataka bypolls. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Karnataka bypolls: United opposition is the way forward

To a lesser or greater degree as compared to other states, the caste factor in Rajasthan will be an important determinant in the forthcoming Assembly election. Every major leader, be it Vasundhara Raje or Sachin Pilot or Ashok Gehlot, is aware of the possibilities that a proper combination can result in, and is straining every nerve to get it right.&nbsp;

&nbsp;The caste issue has gained further dominance in recent months with the traditionally well-off castes upping the ante and demanding attention as well as benefits. The Gujjars, the Jat and the Meena communities — they all have grievances. And so have the Rajputs.&nbsp;

The Gujjars have been granted the Other Backward Classes (OBC) status in the state, but now its powerful leaders have been demanding a Scheduled Tribe categorisation because they feel short-changed in the OBC pie which is shared by many, including the Jats.&nbsp;

They are also cut up because they believe that their political representation is low as compared to their numbers. Besides, the Gujjars are politically hostile to the Meena community because the latter enjoys a Scheduled Tribe status and avails of the benefits that come as a result. &nbsp;

The Rajputs, on the other hand, are upset by all the attention that the Jats, the Meenas and the Gujjars have gained over the years. Historically, the Rajputs were landowners and the Jats their tenants, particularly in the then Rajputana region. In 1946, a charismatic Jat leader, Baldev Ram Mirdha, mobilised farmers and led a ‘revolt’ against the landed aristocracy which comprised the Rajputs. 
 
His Marwar Kisan Sabha demanded land reforms and declaration of tenancy rights. Once his party merged with the Congress, the latter stridently undertook some of the changes that the Sabha had sought and brought in land reforms. The Rajputs believed that they were unfairly dealt with, painted as villains and wrongly projected. But the community — like the others — had few political options and continued to support the Congress. &nbsp;

After the Congress’s landslide win in the 1998 Assembly election, the Jats expected one of their prominent leaders to become the Chief Minister, but Ashok Gehlot considered an outsider, got the honour. That is when the Jats began to move away from the Congress, and in the next Assembly poll, they backed the Bharatiya Janata Party, which got nearly three times more seats than it had in 1998. The Congress was reduced to less than half the number it had.&nbsp;

The Rajputs, who had been sulking, also seized the opportunity and went over to the BJP fold. Others followed suit. The 2013 result, which was overwhelmingly in the BJP’s favour, indicated that the party had cracked the caste code.&nbsp;

Things are different now, though it’s still not clear if indeed the carefully crafted caste alignment of the BJP has fallen apart to the party’s detriment. But there are problems, The Karni Sena, a group that claims to represent the interests of the upper castes, had recently shot into the limelight with their street protests against the release of the film, Padmavat. 
 
Given that the Raje Government is in power, it had to bear the brunt of the opposition, although it had taken the safe way out by supporting a conditional ban on the film’s release in Rajasthan and favouring dialogue with stakeholders. The Jats, Gujjars and Meenas are being assiduously wooed by the Congress, which hopes to repeat its 1998 performance in the State.&nbsp;

Mindful of the challenge, the BJP has roped in two of its prominent Rajput leaders from Rajasthan, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore and Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, to project a Rajput-friendly image. It does seem to have, for the moment, cut the Karni Sena to size — a recent rally organised in Jaipur by the outfit managed to draw just a few hundred people. The Congress, on the other hand, is playing other cards, perhaps uncertain of the Rajput community’s support. 
 
It is tapping on the discontent among the Meena, Jat and Gujjar communities, combining their caste pride with rural distress. Sachin Pilot is a Gujjar, and he had lost out on a ministerial berth in a Union Cabinet reshuffle in the UPA rule, reportedly because of fear within the Congress that the powerful Meena community would be angered. On the other hand, Gehlot can claim association with both the Jat and the Rajput communities in a historical sense, though his gotra is seen to be part of the Jats. Given that multiple identifications can work, chief minister Vasundhara Raje is also not averse to flaunting it, even if she underplays it at times. She was born into a Rajput family and married a Jat; her daughter-in-law is a Gujjar.&nbsp;&nbsp;

It’s difficult for either the BJP or the Congress to annoy any of the castes in the state because they have all become dominant in recent decades. The question now is: Which caste will triumph in the chief ministerial race: The Meena, the Gujjar, the Jat, or the Rajput?&nbsp;

 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

To a lesser or greater degree as compared to other states, the caste factor in Rajasthan will be an important determinant in the forthcoming Assembly election. Every major leader, be it Vasundhara Raje or Sachin Pilot or Ashok Gehlot, is aware of the possibilities that a proper combination can result in, and is straining every nerve to get it right.

To a lesser or greater degree as compared to other states, the caste factor in Rajasthan will be an important determinant in the forthcoming Assembly election. Every major leader, be it Vasundhara Raje or Sachin Pilot or Ashok Gehlot, is aware of the possibilities that a proper combination can result in, and is straining every nerve to get it right. The caste issue has gained further dominance in recent months with the traditionally well-off castes upping the ante and demanding attention as well as benefits. The Gujjars, the Jat and the Meena communities — they all have grievances. And so have the Rajputs. The Gujjars have been granted the Other Backward Classes (OBC) status in the state, but now its powerful leaders have been demanding a Scheduled Tribe categorisation because they feel short-changed in the OBC pie which is shared by many, including the Jats. They are also cut up because they believe that their political representation is low as compared to their numbers. Besides, the Gujjars are politically hostile to the Meena community because the latter enjoys a Scheduled Tribe status and avails of the benefits that come as a result. The Rajputs, on the other hand, are upset by all the attention that the Jats, the Meenas and the Gujjars have gained over the years. Historically, the Rajputs were landowners and the Jats their tenants, particularly in the then Rajputana region. In 1946, a charismatic Jat leader, Baldev Ram Mirdha, mobilised farmers and led a ‘revolt’ against the landed aristocracy which comprised the Rajputs. His Marwar Kisan Sabha demanded land reforms and declaration of tenancy rights. Once his party merged with the Congress, the latter stridently undertook some of the changes that the Sabha had sought and brought in land reforms. The Rajputs believed that they were unfairly dealt with, painted as villains and wrongly projected. But the community — like the others — had few political options and continued to support the Congress. After the Congress’s landslide win in the 1998 Assembly election, the Jats expected one of their prominent leaders to become the Chief Minister, but Ashok Gehlot considered an outsider, got the honour. That is when the Jats began to move away from the Congress, and in the next Assembly poll, they backed the Bharatiya Janata Party, which got nearly three times more seats than it had in 1998. The Congress was reduced to less than half the number it had. The Rajputs, who had been sulking, also seized the opportunity and went over to the BJP fold. Others followed suit. The 2013 result, which was overwhelmingly in the BJP’s favour, indicated that the party had cracked the caste code. Things are different now, though it’s still not clear if indeed the carefully crafted caste alignment of the BJP has fallen apart to the party’s detriment. But there are problems, The Karni Sena, a group that claims to represent the interests of the upper castes, had recently shot into the limelight with their street protests against the release of the film, Padmavat. Given that the Raje Government is in power, it had to bear the brunt of the opposition, although it had taken the safe way out by supporting a conditional ban on the film’s release in Rajasthan and favouring dialogue with stakeholders. The Jats, Gujjars and Meenas are being assiduously wooed by the Congress, which hopes to repeat its 1998 performance in the State. Mindful of the challenge, the BJP has roped in two of its prominent Rajput leaders from Rajasthan, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore and Gajendra Singh Shekhawat, to project a Rajput-friendly image. It does seem to have, for the moment, cut the Karni Sena to size — a recent rally organised in Jaipur by the outfit managed to draw just a few hundred people. The Congress, on the other hand, is playing other cards, perhaps uncertain of the Rajput community’s support. It is tapping on the discontent among the Meena, Jat and Gujjar communities, combining their caste pride with rural distress. Sachin Pilot is a Gujjar, and he had lost out on a ministerial berth in a Union Cabinet reshuffle in the UPA rule, reportedly because of fear within the Congress that the powerful Meena community would be angered. On the other hand, Gehlot can claim association with both the Jat and the Rajput communities in a historical sense, though his gotra is seen to be part of the Jats. Given that multiple identifications can work, chief minister Vasundhara Raje is also not averse to flaunting it, even if she underplays it at times. She was born into a Rajput family and married a Jat; her daughter-in-law is a Gujjar. It’s difficult for either the BJP or the Congress to annoy any of the castes in the state because they have all become dominant in recent decades. The question now is: Which caste will triumph in the chief ministerial race: The Meena, the Gujjar, the Jat, or the Rajput? (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Caste politics rules the roost in Rajasthan assembly elections 2018

Congress president Rahul Gandhi, a self-professed "Shiv-bhakt", is on a pilgrimage to Kailash Mansarovar, the mythical meditation-abode of Shiva and his consort, Parvati. A pilgrimage to Kailash Mansarovar is considered to be the most sacred according to many Hindus, but only a few are able to go on it, as it is both arduous and expensive.&nbsp;

Located at a height of more than 6,000 metres, the mountain and the lakes that are spread around it are revered by Buddhists and Jains as well. This is hardly surprising as the origin, history and development of these three religions is intimately intertwined. &nbsp;

With elections in states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram just months away the Congress scion’s trek to the holy site is being seen as yet another ‘temple-run’ by his opponents in the BJP. &nbsp;

The BJP’s charge is simple and a repeat of their attack on the Congress during the Gujarat and Karnataka assembly elections where Rahul had visited a string of important monasteries and temples ahead of elections in the two states. BJP charges Rahul with opportunism, saying that Gandhi goes to temples only for votes and not because he is actually a devout Hindu. Rahul’s critics among left-liberals decry his visits such as the latest as appeasement of &nbsp;BJP’s politics of Hindutva, labelling it ‘soft Hindutva’.&nbsp;

More recently, Congress’s spokesperson Randeep Surjewala proclaimed that his party’s DNA consists of ‘Brahmins’. He was speaking at a rally organised to reach out to the influential Brahmin community in Haryana’s Kurukshetra. It seems the grand old party has decided to adopt the BJP’s strategy of espousing religion to woo the Indian voter in the upcoming state elections and the general elections in 2019. &nbsp;

It is also clear now that the top leadership in the Congress has finally decided to counter the BJP’s successful campaign to label it as a party mainly for Muslims and minorities. In this the BJP has effectively made use of past statements and comments made by a slew of Congress leaders like Digvijay Singh, Salman Khurshid, and Sushil Kumar Shinde. For the Kailash-Mansarovar pilgrimage too, Rahul has been pilloried by BJP leaders who call it nothing but a ‘gimmick’ and its spokesperson Sambit Patra even suggests a ‘secret love for China’ being behind the visit. &nbsp;

Congress’s playing of the Hindu card is as critics say, a specious and cynical move, but at the same time it gives credence to the view that party is now out of the morass that engulfed it in the wake of 2014. It is adopting different strategies to woo different communities while retaining its image as a secular party that fought for and won independence from the British. &nbsp;As far as Rahul’s latest pilgrimage is concerned he had announced it after his aircraft had to make an emergency landing after a sudden mid-air snag while campaigning during Karnataka elections. &nbsp;

Whether or not Rahul’s apparently new-found religious devotion is politically motivated, one thing is clear, his so-called temple-runs are giving the BJP sleepless nights. However, it remains to be seen if Rahul’s "Shiv-bhakti" will get him the political boons he hopes for in order to save the Congress, which is facing an existential crisis.&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

With elections in states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram just months away the Congress scion’s trek to the holy site is being seen as yet another ‘temple-run’ by his opponents in the BJP.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi, a self-professed "Shiv-bhakt", is on a pilgrimage to Kailash Mansarovar, the mythical meditation-abode of Shiva and his consort, Parvati. A pilgrimage to Kailash Mansarovar is considered to be the most sacred according to many Hindus, but only a few are able to go on it, as it is both arduous and expensive. Located at a height of more than 6,000 metres, the mountain and the lakes that are spread around it are revered by Buddhists and Jains as well. This is hardly surprising as the origin, history and development of these three religions is intimately intertwined. With elections in states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Mizoram just months away the Congress scion’s trek to the holy site is being seen as yet another ‘temple-run’ by his opponents in the BJP. The BJP’s charge is simple and a repeat of their attack on the Congress during the Gujarat and Karnataka assembly elections where Rahul had visited a string of important monasteries and temples ahead of elections in the two states. BJP charges Rahul with opportunism, saying that Gandhi goes to temples only for votes and not because he is actually a devout Hindu. Rahul’s critics among left-liberals decry his visits such as the latest as appeasement of BJP’s politics of Hindutva, labelling it ‘soft Hindutva’. More recently, Congress’s spokesperson Randeep Surjewala proclaimed that his party’s DNA consists of ‘Brahmins’. He was speaking at a rally organised to reach out to the influential Brahmin community in Haryana’s Kurukshetra. It seems the grand old party has decided to adopt the BJP’s strategy of espousing religion to woo the Indian voter in the upcoming state elections and the general elections in 2019. It is also clear now that the top leadership in the Congress has finally decided to counter the BJP’s successful campaign to label it as a party mainly for Muslims and minorities. In this the BJP has effectively made use of past statements and comments made by a slew of Congress leaders like Digvijay Singh, Salman Khurshid, and Sushil Kumar Shinde. For the Kailash-Mansarovar pilgrimage too, Rahul has been pilloried by BJP leaders who call it nothing but a ‘gimmick’ and its spokesperson Sambit Patra even suggests a ‘secret love for China’ being behind the visit. Congress’s playing of the Hindu card is as critics say, a specious and cynical move, but at the same time it gives credence to the view that party is now out of the morass that engulfed it in the wake of 2014. It is adopting different strategies to woo different communities while retaining its image as a secular party that fought for and won independence from the British. As far as Rahul’s latest pilgrimage is concerned he had announced it after his aircraft had to make an emergency landing after a sudden mid-air snag while campaigning during Karnataka elections. Whether or not Rahul’s apparently new-found religious devotion is politically motivated, one thing is clear, his so-called temple-runs are giving the BJP sleepless nights. However, it remains to be seen if Rahul’s "Shiv-bhakti" will get him the political boons he hopes for in order to save the Congress, which is facing an existential crisis. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Opinion: Will 'Shiv-bhakti' save the Congress?

While Congress has almost finalised its list of candidates for 115 seats out of a total of 230, insiders in the state unit say that the party is likely to alienate many district units and booth level workers because of the way candidates were selected. &nbsp;The Congress’s first list is expected to be out next week. For half of these 115 seats, most of the 58 sitting MLAs have been given the ticket again.

Many of the remaining 57 seats have been distributed using PCC President Kamalnath’s criterion of ‘winnability’. This has meant that many Congress loyalists have been ignored and are now sulking. The difference between victory and defeat in most of the seats in the 2013 elections was only a 2,000-3,000 votes and these disgruntled Congressmen are likely to hurt the party’s chances at the booth level.&nbsp;

But Congress’s problems are not limited to resentment caused by ‘outsiders’ alone. Even though Congress president Rahul Gandhi had categorically stated that ‘outsiders’ will not be given tickets, his state president seems to have quickly realised that given the rampant factionalism in Congress at every level, bringing in ‘outsider’ candidates would perhaps be least damaging to the party’s chances. &nbsp;

In many assembly seats, Congress is also facing what can be called the mini-dynasty syndrome. In such places, one family has been fighting elections on the party’s tickets for decades. Naturally, the party’s prospects have suffered because of that. But it seems even in this crucial election, Congress is unable to recognise this dynastic-politics as a problem.&nbsp;

Take the example of Raisen district bordering Bhopal where for at least the last two decades a particular candidate, Prabhuram Chaudhary, has been getting the Congress ticket. While he has lost the last two elections to BJP minister Gauri Shankar Shejwar, &nbsp;sources in the Congress say Chaudhary is tipped to be given the ticket this time as well. &nbsp;

This has led to a disillusionment with the party, and as a result, many local Congress leaders are likely to stay on the sidelines instead of working for the same old candidate. In such seats, &nbsp;Kamalnath’s ‘winnability factor’ is trumped by cynical factionalism that has been the bane of Congress in Madhya Pradesh and other states.&nbsp;

Chaudhary is said to be backed by chief ministerial aspirant and Congress MP Jyotiraditya Scindia, and therefore despite his clear ‘unwinnability’ he is most likely to get the ticket. &nbsp;Another seat being closely watched is Budhni, from where chief minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan is an MLA. &nbsp;It is being speculated that a total outsider, Arjun Arya, is likely to get the Congress nomination from this seat. &nbsp;Congress still has significant support in Budhni and garnered more than 36, 000 votes in the 2013 election despite infighting. If Congress’s state leadership can send a message of unity from this seat it will certainly boost its cadres' morale in the rest of the state. &nbsp;

But Scindia is just one of the factional leaders in the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, and has influence over 15-17 seats in the state. Besides him, there are other big and small factions like Digvijaya Singh (who controls more than half of the present Congress MLAs), Kamalnath himself and Arun Yadav, the former state president with influence in a few seats. &nbsp;

Almost every seat in the state has different factions with allegiance to one of the aforementioned leaders and to get them all united towards the common aim of defeating the BJP is proving to be a Herculean task for the grand old party. &nbsp;

It is this factionalism that was at blatant display at the Bhopal rally of Rahul Gandhi. When state media in charge Shobha Ozha tried to get Scindia and Kamalnath to join hands in a show of support, Scindia was seen pulling away from it. This move was just one visible sign of the disunity in the party.&nbsp;&nbsp;

In 2013 elections as well Congress’s crab mentality had led to its poor performance, winning just 58 seats as opposed to the incumbent BJP which had won 166 seats.&nbsp;&nbsp;

At the moment Congress leaders, aware as they are of the serious infighting, are only hoping that they will be able to come closer to the halfway mark of 116 seats. This speaks volumes about the party’s organisational unity and strength as it goes into polls against a three-term BJP government beset with anti-incumbency.&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

While Congress has almost finalised its list of candidates for 115 seats out of a total of 230, insiders in the state unit say that the party is likely to alienate many district units and booth level workers because of the way candidates were selected.

While Congress has almost finalised its list of candidates for 115 seats out of a total of 230, insiders in the state unit say that the party is likely to alienate many district units and booth level workers because of the way candidates were selected. The Congress’s first list is expected to be out next week. For half of these 115 seats, most of the 58 sitting MLAs have been given the ticket again. Many of the remaining 57 seats have been distributed using PCC President Kamalnath’s criterion of ‘winnability’. This has meant that many Congress loyalists have been ignored and are now sulking. The difference between victory and defeat in most of the seats in the 2013 elections was only a 2,000-3,000 votes and these disgruntled Congressmen are likely to hurt the party’s chances at the booth level. But Congress’s problems are not limited to resentment caused by ‘outsiders’ alone. Even though Congress president Rahul Gandhi had categorically stated that ‘outsiders’ will not be given tickets, his state president seems to have quickly realised that given the rampant factionalism in Congress at every level, bringing in ‘outsider’ candidates would perhaps be least damaging to the party’s chances. In many assembly seats, Congress is also facing what can be called the mini-dynasty syndrome. In such places, one family has been fighting elections on the party’s tickets for decades. Naturally, the party’s prospects have suffered because of that. But it seems even in this crucial election, Congress is unable to recognise this dynastic-politics as a problem. Take the example of Raisen district bordering Bhopal where for at least the last two decades a particular candidate, Prabhuram Chaudhary, has been getting the Congress ticket. While he has lost the last two elections to BJP minister Gauri Shankar Shejwar, sources in the Congress say Chaudhary is tipped to be given the ticket this time as well. This has led to a disillusionment with the party, and as a result, many local Congress leaders are likely to stay on the sidelines instead of working for the same old candidate. In such seats, Kamalnath’s ‘winnability factor’ is trumped by cynical factionalism that has been the bane of Congress in Madhya Pradesh and other states. Chaudhary is said to be backed by chief ministerial aspirant and Congress MP Jyotiraditya Scindia, and therefore despite his clear ‘unwinnability’ he is most likely to get the ticket. Another seat being closely watched is Budhni, from where chief minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan is an MLA. It is being speculated that a total outsider, Arjun Arya, is likely to get the Congress nomination from this seat. Congress still has significant support in Budhni and garnered more than 36, 000 votes in the 2013 election despite infighting. If Congress’s state leadership can send a message of unity from this seat it will certainly boost its cadres' morale in the rest of the state. But Scindia is just one of the factional leaders in the Congress in Madhya Pradesh, and has influence over 15-17 seats in the state. Besides him, there are other big and small factions like Digvijaya Singh (who controls more than half of the present Congress MLAs), Kamalnath himself and Arun Yadav, the former state president with influence in a few seats. Almost every seat in the state has different factions with allegiance to one of the aforementioned leaders and to get them all united towards the common aim of defeating the BJP is proving to be a Herculean task for the grand old party. It is this factionalism that was at blatant display at the Bhopal rally of Rahul Gandhi. When state media in charge Shobha Ozha tried to get Scindia and Kamalnath to join hands in a show of support, Scindia was seen pulling away from it. This move was just one visible sign of the disunity in the party. In 2013 elections as well Congress’s crab mentality had led to its poor performance, winning just 58 seats as opposed to the incumbent BJP which had won 166 seats. At the moment Congress leaders, aware as they are of the serious infighting, are only hoping that they will be able to come closer to the halfway mark of 116 seats. This speaks volumes about the party’s organisational unity and strength as it goes into polls against a three-term BJP government beset with anti-incumbency. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Congress is on shaky ground in Madhya Pradesh

In terms of optics, the crossing over of veteran Bharatiya Janata Party leader Jaswant Singh’s son, Manvendra Singh, to the Congress just weeks ahead of an Assembly election, is somewhat of an embarrassment for the BJP and a delight for the Congress. Beyond this, the development will neither greatly dent nor boost the prospects of the ruling party in Rajasthan. 
 
Manvendra Singh is not a political heavyweight in the State, and his family lineage does not count for much in today’s politics, although he comes from a caste that enjoys considerable influence there. &nbsp;

Besides, his decision did not have an element of surprise. He had been suspended from the BJP in 2014, after the party said that he had campaigned against its official candidate in Barmer. Incidentally, Jaswant Singh had rebelled against the party and contested from this constituency as an independent in the election, after the BJP denied him a ticket. It was, thus, a matter of time before Manvendra Singh exited. 
 
A year before the 2014 Lok Sabha election, in which his father was sidelined, Manvendra Singh had successfully contested the Rajasthan Assembly election on a BJP ticket from a constituency in Barmer, the family’s home ground. He held on to the Assembly seat despite being suspended from the party.&nbsp;

Having been in active politics for just under two decades, Manvendra Singh could not expand his reach beyond Barmer, and is not seen as a pan-Rajasthan figure, unlike his father who had a national prominence, given his stature in the BJP during the Vajpayee-Advani era. Jaswant Singh served in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s Cabinet as Minister for Defence, Minister for External Affairs, and Minister for Finance. Throughout his tenure, he was, therefore, part of the prestigious Cabinet Committee on Security. And yet, for all these achievements, Jaswant Singh’s reach in Rajasthan was largely limited to Barmer — a legacy from which Manvendra Singh later benefitted.&nbsp;

It is true that Manvendra Singh, a former territorial Army officer, is both erudite and articulate. At one point, he was seen within the BJP as a rising young talent who could be groomed for bigger roles. But despite his father’s stature, and his own abilities, he could not make a mark in his own home State because of the presence of seniors like Vasundhara Raje. His electoral victories were attributed more to the BJP’s strong grassroots presence than to his persona. 
 
Caste considerations also came in the way since the party was looking forward to expanding its base among other dominant groups such as the Gujjars. Post-2014, after Jaswant Singh failed in his bid to get elected to the Lok Sabha as an independent — losing to a BJP candidate — the impression gained roots that Manvendra Singh had no political future as a standalone.&nbsp;&nbsp;

His decision to join the Congress has to be understood in the above backdrop. As a Congress nominee (there is every possibility of his getting a ticket from one of the Assembly constituencies in Barmer), he will have the support of an organisation with a strong presence in the State. There is also a political sense in the timing of his decision; the BJP regime led by Vasundhara Raje is seen to be on the back foot and there is already talk that it may not be able to retain power. Additionally, Manvendra Singh has the support of a local outfit, the Swabhiman Sena, with which he has been closely associated and which he claims is being hounded by the Raje Government. Needless to add, this Sena will now, at least largely, back the Congress in the coming Assembly poll.&nbsp;

While Manvendra Singh and his family’s influence does not extend significantly to all of Rajasthan, it does exist in the eight Assembly constituencies in the Barmer Lok Sabha jurisdiction, primarily among the Rajput sections of society, whose cause the Swabhiman Sena has been espousing. Given that the Rajputs have been a strong vote-base of the BJP, the possibility of the Congress using Manvendra Singh’s arrival to eat into that segment is real.&nbsp;&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

In terms of optics, the crossing over of veteran Bharatiya Janata Party leader Jaswant Singh’s son, Manvendra Singh, to the Congress just weeks ahead of an Assembly election, is somewhat of an embarrassment for the BJP and a delight for the Congress.

In terms of optics, the crossing over of veteran Bharatiya Janata Party leader Jaswant Singh’s son, Manvendra Singh, to the Congress just weeks ahead of an Assembly election, is somewhat of an embarrassment for the BJP and a delight for the Congress. Beyond this, the development will neither greatly dent nor boost the prospects of the ruling party in Rajasthan. Manvendra Singh is not a political heavyweight in the State, and his family lineage does not count for much in today’s politics, although he comes from a caste that enjoys considerable influence there. Besides, his decision did not have an element of surprise. He had been suspended from the BJP in 2014, after the party said that he had campaigned against its official candidate in Barmer. Incidentally, Jaswant Singh had rebelled against the party and contested from this constituency as an independent in the election, after the BJP denied him a ticket. It was, thus, a matter of time before Manvendra Singh exited. A year before the 2014 Lok Sabha election, in which his father was sidelined, Manvendra Singh had successfully contested the Rajasthan Assembly election on a BJP ticket from a constituency in Barmer, the family’s home ground. He held on to the Assembly seat despite being suspended from the party. Having been in active politics for just under two decades, Manvendra Singh could not expand his reach beyond Barmer, and is not seen as a pan-Rajasthan figure, unlike his father who had a national prominence, given his stature in the BJP during the Vajpayee-Advani era. Jaswant Singh served in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s Cabinet as Minister for Defence, Minister for External Affairs, and Minister for Finance. Throughout his tenure, he was, therefore, part of the prestigious Cabinet Committee on Security. And yet, for all these achievements, Jaswant Singh’s reach in Rajasthan was largely limited to Barmer — a legacy from which Manvendra Singh later benefitted. It is true that Manvendra Singh, a former territorial Army officer, is both erudite and articulate. At one point, he was seen within the BJP as a rising young talent who could be groomed for bigger roles. But despite his father’s stature, and his own abilities, he could not make a mark in his own home State because of the presence of seniors like Vasundhara Raje. His electoral victories were attributed more to the BJP’s strong grassroots presence than to his persona. Caste considerations also came in the way since the party was looking forward to expanding its base among other dominant groups such as the Gujjars. Post-2014, after Jaswant Singh failed in his bid to get elected to the Lok Sabha as an independent — losing to a BJP candidate — the impression gained roots that Manvendra Singh had no political future as a standalone. His decision to join the Congress has to be understood in the above backdrop. As a Congress nominee (there is every possibility of his getting a ticket from one of the Assembly constituencies in Barmer), he will have the support of an organisation with a strong presence in the State. There is also a political sense in the timing of his decision; the BJP regime led by Vasundhara Raje is seen to be on the back foot and there is already talk that it may not be able to retain power. Additionally, Manvendra Singh has the support of a local outfit, the Swabhiman Sena, with which he has been closely associated and which he claims is being hounded by the Raje Government. Needless to add, this Sena will now, at least largely, back the Congress in the coming Assembly poll. While Manvendra Singh and his family’s influence does not extend significantly to all of Rajasthan, it does exist in the eight Assembly constituencies in the Barmer Lok Sabha jurisdiction, primarily among the Rajput sections of society, whose cause the Swabhiman Sena has been espousing. Given that the Rajputs have been a strong vote-base of the BJP, the possibility of the Congress using Manvendra Singh’s arrival to eat into that segment is real. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Manvendra Singh's induction a delight for Congress

The battle for Rajasthan is not only an electoral contest between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. It is also a fight for supremacy among the heavyweight state leaders belonging to the two parties. Their charisma and credibility will be an important factor in determining the outcome of the forthcoming Assembly election. The fact that the two national parties are the main contestants makes the role of the local leaders critical. &nbsp;

The prestige of three prominent state leaders is at stake. Chief minister Vasundhara Raje from the BJP, and Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot from the Congress. All of them have seen several political ups and downs. They have a pan-Rajasthan image. They are well-versed with the intricacies of caste combinations. They are leaders in their own right, not requiring to necessarily depend overly on the patronage of their respective national leadership to remain relevant. And, either of the three will nearly certainly head the next government in the state.&nbsp;

That said, the greatest pressure is on Vasundhara Raje because as the incumbent chief minister she has to retain the state for her party. Going purely by various poll surveys, she is on a sticky wicket. Her government’s performance has fetched ordinary ratings; her personal rating is below that of her Congress rivals; and in terms of both seats and vote-share, the BJP trails behind the Congress. There is still time for the tide to turn, for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to spin his charm on Rajasthan’s electorate. But it will be difficult, if not impossible to counter the negatives that have stuck on Vasundhara Raje’s image.

But why has she become so unpopular? After all, only five years before, she had stormed to power, dislodging the formidable Congress veteran Ashok Gehlot. One can only reply to perceptions to get an answer. The first concerns her inaccessibility, both to the masses and to the party’s local leaders. She is said to be aloof — even imperious — and brusque in her mannerism. The second has to do with her failure to address critical issues of unemployment and price rise. Besides, it does not help that the RSS, which contributes a large chunk of the workforce in election campaigning in the BJP’s favour, is less than enthused by her leadership. The recent by-poll losses in Alwar and Ajmer have been attributed to her failed leadership.

As if these were not enough, the chief minister has faced open rebellion from within; a prominent leader, Ghanshyam Tiwari, has floated his own outfit to take on her “corrupt regime”. Plus, there is disenchantment among nearly every influential caste group. Will these factors form a heady cocktail that will down the Raje regime, is to be seen.

But for now, it’s good news for the Congress’s Pilot and Gehlot. The former has for long been part of Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s inner circle, and now heads the party’s Rajasthan unit. Besides being young and dynamic, he has the right caste qualification (Gujjar). He is a strong favourite to take over the chief ministership in case the Congress snatches power from the BJP.&nbsp;

He must be itching to avenge his massive loss to a BJP candidate in the 2014 Lok Sabha election (he lost by over 1,70,000 votes). Like Vasundhara Raje, he comes from a political family — his father Rajesh Pilot was a minister in the Congress government at the Centre. However, going by current perceptions, he faces a challenge to his chief ministerial ambitions not from the incumbent chief minister but from his colleague Gehlot.

Ashok Gehlot, like Pilot, is waiting to wipe the slate of his defeat in the 2013 Assembly polls, clean. His camp wants to see him back as chief minister. In recent months, he has come to be regarded as being close to Rahul Gandhi. He had been entrusted with the task of government formation in Karnataka. More recently, he was prominently present during the Rahul-led Congress’s protest meeting outside the Central Bureau of Investigation’s office. And, in many poll surveys, he figures higher than Pilot in ratings for the state’s next chief&nbsp;minister.

The Congress believes that the combined might of the two leaders will help the party breach the finishing line first. The BJP thinks the leadership tussle between the camps of the two tall Congress leaders will work in its favour. We will know soon.&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL 
&nbsp;

The battle for Rajasthan is not only an electoral contest between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. It is also a fight for supremacy among the heavyweight state leaders belonging to the two parties.

The battle for Rajasthan is not only an electoral contest between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party. It is also a fight for supremacy among the heavyweight state leaders belonging to the two parties. Their charisma and credibility will be an important factor in determining the outcome of the forthcoming Assembly election. The fact that the two national parties are the main contestants makes the role of the local leaders critical. The prestige of three prominent state leaders is at stake. Chief minister Vasundhara Raje from the BJP, and Sachin Pilot and Ashok Gehlot from the Congress. All of them have seen several political ups and downs. They have a pan-Rajasthan image. They are well-versed with the intricacies of caste combinations. They are leaders in their own right, not requiring to necessarily depend overly on the patronage of their respective national leadership to remain relevant. And, either of the three will nearly certainly head the next government in the state. That said, the greatest pressure is on Vasundhara Raje because as the incumbent chief minister she has to retain the state for her party. Going purely by various poll surveys, she is on a sticky wicket. Her government’s performance has fetched ordinary ratings; her personal rating is below that of her Congress rivals; and in terms of both seats and vote-share, the BJP trails behind the Congress. There is still time for the tide to turn, for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to spin his charm on Rajasthan’s electorate. But it will be difficult, if not impossible to counter the negatives that have stuck on Vasundhara Raje’s image. But why has she become so unpopular? After all, only five years before, she had stormed to power, dislodging the formidable Congress veteran Ashok Gehlot. One can only reply to perceptions to get an answer. The first concerns her inaccessibility, both to the masses and to the party’s local leaders. She is said to be aloof — even imperious — and brusque in her mannerism. The second has to do with her failure to address critical issues of unemployment and price rise. Besides, it does not help that the RSS, which contributes a large chunk of the workforce in election campaigning in the BJP’s favour, is less than enthused by her leadership. The recent by-poll losses in Alwar and Ajmer have been attributed to her failed leadership. As if these were not enough, the chief minister has faced open rebellion from within; a prominent leader, Ghanshyam Tiwari, has floated his own outfit to take on her “corrupt regime”. Plus, there is disenchantment among nearly every influential caste group. Will these factors form a heady cocktail that will down the Raje regime, is to be seen. But for now, it’s good news for the Congress’s Pilot and Gehlot. The former has for long been part of Congress president Rahul Gandhi’s inner circle, and now heads the party’s Rajasthan unit. Besides being young and dynamic, he has the right caste qualification (Gujjar). He is a strong favourite to take over the chief ministership in case the Congress snatches power from the BJP. He must be itching to avenge his massive loss to a BJP candidate in the 2014 Lok Sabha election (he lost by over 1,70,000 votes). Like Vasundhara Raje, he comes from a political family — his father Rajesh Pilot was a minister in the Congress government at the Centre. However, going by current perceptions, he faces a challenge to his chief ministerial ambitions not from the incumbent chief minister but from his colleague Gehlot. Ashok Gehlot, like Pilot, is waiting to wipe the slate of his defeat in the 2013 Assembly polls, clean. His camp wants to see him back as chief minister. In recent months, he has come to be regarded as being close to Rahul Gandhi. He had been entrusted with the task of government formation in Karnataka. More recently, he was prominently present during the Rahul-led Congress’s protest meeting outside the Central Bureau of Investigation’s office. And, in many poll surveys, he figures higher than Pilot in ratings for the state’s next chief minister. The Congress believes that the combined might of the two leaders will help the party breach the finishing line first. The BJP thinks the leadership tussle between the camps of the two tall Congress leaders will work in its favour. We will know soon. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL

In Rajasthan, it’s the local leadership that matters

After remaining in power for 15-years, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is confronted with double anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, whereas the major opposition Congress, which was ready to forge an alliance with both the BSP and Samajwadi Party in the midst of the hype generated recently over the prospects of a grand alliance to take on the BJP in the 2019 parliamentary election, has been left alone in the two central Indian states now in the grip of poll fever.

The Congress received the first blow when shortly after announcing an alliance with Janata Congress of Ajit Jogi in Chhattisgarh in the second fortnight of September, BSP Supremo Mayawati went ahead and ruled out any kind of alliance with the Congress party in MP.&nbsp;

The Samajwadi Party also has chosen to maintain distance from the Congress party in MP.

Recently the caste factor has got precipitated due to the amendment in the SC/ST Atrocities Act at the initiative of the Modi government at the Centre and with the full support of all the political parties. This amendment was brought to undo the Supreme Court of India order directing that no one booked under the Atrocities Act should be arrested without a preliminary enquiry.&nbsp;

The violent protests by Dalits after the apex court order and the massive Bharat Band (strike) against the amendment in the Atrocities Act indicate the magnitude of the caste divide. Obviously, therefore, driven by the motive of retaining their respective vote banks among the Dalits and the backward communities, the BSP and Samajwadi Party have chosen to go alone in MP.

For the last many years, the ruling BJP has been working concertedly to expand its base in the tribal areas of MP and Chhattisgarh by building a network of Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram schools and colleges. The Vivekananda Kendra functionaries have also been in the overdrive mode in the tribal areas in recent years. This has brought dividends and in successive elections, there’s been a remarkable upward swing in BJP’s electoral fortunes in the tribal belt.

In the 2018 MP Assembly election, there are multiple dimensions when it comes to the battle for the Assembly seats reserved for the STs. Besides the BJP and Congress, now there is also a tribal group attracting huge crowds under the banner of Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti (JAYS) in western MP.&nbsp;

After talks for seat sharing between the Congress and JAYS have failed, the Gondwana Gantantra Party, having strong roots in the tribal areas, and Samajwadi Party have decided to go together in MP and Chhattisgarh. &nbsp;

In MP, both the ruling BJP and Congress should be ready for a backlash due to seething anger against the quota system and the Atrocities Act.&nbsp;

The State is witnessing a crusade against the government provision for reservation in promotion for SCs and STs by an organisation called SAPAKS formed by State government officers and employees belonging to the general, backward and minority communities.

SAPAKS Samaj, another body formed by citizens to extend support to the aggrieved government employees, is also spearheading a State-wide movement since 2016 to build public awareness against the pitfalls of reservation on caste lines and the Atrocities Act.&nbsp;

A large section of SAPAKS Samaj is backing the newly floated Anarakshit Samaj Party in this election, which is for reservation only on an economic basis. &nbsp;In the meanwhile, galvanised by a huge SAPAKS rally in Bhopal, a faction within SAPAKS Samaj that has floated a political party, also by the name of “Sapaks”, has repeatedly kept on announcing that it would be fielding candidates in all the 230 Assembly constituencies of MP even before its registration by the Election Commission of India.&nbsp;

Notwithstanding the confusion created by Sapaks Party, there is every indication that a vast majority of the youth would be voting with vengeance on the issue of reservation and the Atrocities Act in Madhya Pradesh. &nbsp;&nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

After remaining in power for 15-years, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is confronted with double anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, whereas the major opposition Congress, which was ready to forge an alliance with both the BSP and Samajwadi Party in the midst of the hype generated recently over the prospects of a grand alliance to take on the BJP in the 2019 parliamentary election, has been left alone in the two central Indian states now in the grip of poll fever.

After remaining in power for 15-years, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is confronted with double anti-incumbency in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, whereas the major opposition Congress, which was ready to forge an alliance with both the BSP and Samajwadi Party in the midst of the hype generated recently over the prospects of a grand alliance to take on the BJP in the 2019 parliamentary election, has been left alone in the two central Indian states now in the grip of poll fever. The Congress received the first blow when shortly after announcing an alliance with Janata Congress of Ajit Jogi in Chhattisgarh in the second fortnight of September, BSP Supremo Mayawati went ahead and ruled out any kind of alliance with the Congress party in MP. The Samajwadi Party also has chosen to maintain distance from the Congress party in MP. Recently the caste factor has got precipitated due to the amendment in the SC/ST Atrocities Act at the initiative of the Modi government at the Centre and with the full support of all the political parties. This amendment was brought to undo the Supreme Court of India order directing that no one booked under the Atrocities Act should be arrested without a preliminary enquiry. The violent protests by Dalits after the apex court order and the massive Bharat Band (strike) against the amendment in the Atrocities Act indicate the magnitude of the caste divide. Obviously, therefore, driven by the motive of retaining their respective vote banks among the Dalits and the backward communities, the BSP and Samajwadi Party have chosen to go alone in MP. For the last many years, the ruling BJP has been working concertedly to expand its base in the tribal areas of MP and Chhattisgarh by building a network of Vanvasi Kalyan Ashram schools and colleges. The Vivekananda Kendra functionaries have also been in the overdrive mode in the tribal areas in recent years. This has brought dividends and in successive elections, there’s been a remarkable upward swing in BJP’s electoral fortunes in the tribal belt. In the 2018 MP Assembly election, there are multiple dimensions when it comes to the battle for the Assembly seats reserved for the STs. Besides the BJP and Congress, now there is also a tribal group attracting huge crowds under the banner of Jai Adivasi Yuva Shakti (JAYS) in western MP. After talks for seat sharing between the Congress and JAYS have failed, the Gondwana Gantantra Party, having strong roots in the tribal areas, and Samajwadi Party have decided to go together in MP and Chhattisgarh. In MP, both the ruling BJP and Congress should be ready for a backlash due to seething anger against the quota system and the Atrocities Act. The State is witnessing a crusade against the government provision for reservation in promotion for SCs and STs by an organisation called SAPAKS formed by State government officers and employees belonging to the general, backward and minority communities. SAPAKS Samaj, another body formed by citizens to extend support to the aggrieved government employees, is also spearheading a State-wide movement since 2016 to build public awareness against the pitfalls of reservation on caste lines and the Atrocities Act. A large section of SAPAKS Samaj is backing the newly floated Anarakshit Samaj Party in this election, which is for reservation only on an economic basis. In the meanwhile, galvanised by a huge SAPAKS rally in Bhopal, a faction within SAPAKS Samaj that has floated a political party, also by the name of “Sapaks”, has repeatedly kept on announcing that it would be fielding candidates in all the 230 Assembly constituencies of MP even before its registration by the Election Commission of India. Notwithstanding the confusion created by Sapaks Party, there is every indication that a vast majority of the youth would be voting with vengeance on the issue of reservation and the Atrocities Act in Madhya Pradesh. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Anti-incumbency stares BJP in the face in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh

Electioneering is yet to pick up and touch the feverish pitch in Madhya Pradesh, especially as the two principal rivals – ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress - have remained caught in the grip of the ticket distribution exercise with claimants and their supporters flocking to camps identified with state party leaders.

The stakes are too high in these elections with Congress trying to dislodge the BJP, which has continuously remained in power for 15-years in Madhya Pradesh and neighbouring Chhattisgarh.

During the week that was, there has been no dearth of those trying to play their cards to the best of their ability. It’s been so starkly visible, how most ticket seekers have cultivated the acumen and were busy demonstrating their strength by brazenly flaunting their SUVs, crisp anti-crease attire, robust gait and money power.&nbsp;

All this, obviously, gets the extra push by the pack of perpetual seekers who hang around the petty leaders in the hope that once their “boss” gets into the Assembly, they would be rewarded amply with the perks of power and fruits of electoral politics. Of course, the crony capitalists are also there acting as punters as they know that the returns on the investment would be in geometric proportion. Obviously, therefore, day-to-day business activity has become less of a priority these days.

To maintain a safe distance from the endless tangle of ticket seekers, Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and state BJP President Rakesh Singh air-dashed to Delhi to finalise the list of candidates on Monday. The BJP ticket seekers, who have been elbowed out in Chhattisgarh, have demonstrated their ire in a big way. In Madhya Pradesh, BJP president will be directly addressing the ticket seekers to control dissent and reduce the number of rebel candidates in the poll fray.

While the BJP is desperately trying to plug the possibility of a backlash from a large number of rebel candidates, the warring camps in the Congress party are making it difficult for the party mandarins to finalise the tickets, especially for constituencies in big cities.

Congress president Rahul Gandhi, who has predicted BJP’s defeat and a swing in favour of Congress in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, has adopted the no-holds-barred strategy. Speaking at election rallies in Jhabua and Ujjain this week, Gandhi went for a frontal attack against Madhya Pradesh chief minister by raising the issue of Vyapam (the massive scam linked with admissions in medical colleges and government recruitments) and the Simhastha scam. At an election rally at Ujjain, Gandhi said that the Kshipra river remains dirty even after the Madhya Pradesh BJP government had spent Rs 400 crore for this purpose. They talk of “dharma” but do not spare even the Mahakumbh, he added. Chouhan has retorted to this by threatening legal action.

During his current round of electioneering, Gandhi did not spare even Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Putting him in the dock on the Rafale deal, he said that the government knew that if there was a thorough probe into this deal by the CBI, the truth would get uncovered. He cited the present CBI controversy (revolving around the Director and his second in command, who have been removed from the scene) as a case in point. Gandhi has also hammered the charge that the Modi government was bent upon undermining the autonomous institutions.

Tailpiece: BJP, also called the saffron party, has been cornered by the Sadhus (Hindu religious saints), who have revolted and given a call to throw out the BJP. At a congregation of a couple of thousand Sadhus at Koteshwar temple in Gwalior on Tuesday, the BJP was slammed for failing to protect the cows and neglecting the Ganges River.

In the coming days, what will be watched closely is the role to be played by Devkinandan Thakur, the world-renowned Katha Vachak, in Madhya Pradesh Assembly election. Devkinandan has a huge following. He strongly opposes reservation on caste lines and the Atrocities Act. The news went viral after he was detained and released by the Police on Monday when he went to offer prayers at Pitambara Peeth at Datia.

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Electioneering is yet to pick up and touch the feverish pitch in Madhya Pradesh, especially as the two principal rivals – ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress - have remained caught in the grip of the ticket distribution exercise with claimants and their supporters flocking to camps identified with state party leaders.

Electioneering is yet to pick up and touch the feverish pitch in Madhya Pradesh, especially as the two principal rivals – ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and Congress - have remained caught in the grip of the ticket distribution exercise with claimants and their supporters flocking to camps identified with state party leaders. The stakes are too high in these elections with Congress trying to dislodge the BJP, which has continuously remained in power for 15-years in Madhya Pradesh and neighbouring Chhattisgarh. During the week that was, there has been no dearth of those trying to play their cards to the best of their ability. It’s been so starkly visible, how most ticket seekers have cultivated the acumen and were busy demonstrating their strength by brazenly flaunting their SUVs, crisp anti-crease attire, robust gait and money power. All this, obviously, gets the extra push by the pack of perpetual seekers who hang around the petty leaders in the hope that once their “boss” gets into the Assembly, they would be rewarded amply with the perks of power and fruits of electoral politics. Of course, the crony capitalists are also there acting as punters as they know that the returns on the investment would be in geometric proportion. Obviously, therefore, day-to-day business activity has become less of a priority these days. To maintain a safe distance from the endless tangle of ticket seekers, Madhya Pradesh chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and state BJP President Rakesh Singh air-dashed to Delhi to finalise the list of candidates on Monday. The BJP ticket seekers, who have been elbowed out in Chhattisgarh, have demonstrated their ire in a big way. In Madhya Pradesh, BJP president will be directly addressing the ticket seekers to control dissent and reduce the number of rebel candidates in the poll fray. While the BJP is desperately trying to plug the possibility of a backlash from a large number of rebel candidates, the warring camps in the Congress party are making it difficult for the party mandarins to finalise the tickets, especially for constituencies in big cities. Congress president Rahul Gandhi, who has predicted BJP’s defeat and a swing in favour of Congress in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, has adopted the no-holds-barred strategy. Speaking at election rallies in Jhabua and Ujjain this week, Gandhi went for a frontal attack against Madhya Pradesh chief minister by raising the issue of Vyapam (the massive scam linked with admissions in medical colleges and government recruitments) and the Simhastha scam. At an election rally at Ujjain, Gandhi said that the Kshipra river remains dirty even after the Madhya Pradesh BJP government had spent Rs 400 crore for this purpose. They talk of “dharma” but do not spare even the Mahakumbh, he added. Chouhan has retorted to this by threatening legal action. During his current round of electioneering, Gandhi did not spare even Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Putting him in the dock on the Rafale deal, he said that the government knew that if there was a thorough probe into this deal by the CBI, the truth would get uncovered. He cited the present CBI controversy (revolving around the Director and his second in command, who have been removed from the scene) as a case in point. Gandhi has also hammered the charge that the Modi government was bent upon undermining the autonomous institutions. Tailpiece: BJP, also called the saffron party, has been cornered by the Sadhus (Hindu religious saints), who have revolted and given a call to throw out the BJP. At a congregation of a couple of thousand Sadhus at Koteshwar temple in Gwalior on Tuesday, the BJP was slammed for failing to protect the cows and neglecting the Ganges River. In the coming days, what will be watched closely is the role to be played by Devkinandan Thakur, the world-renowned Katha Vachak, in Madhya Pradesh Assembly election. Devkinandan has a huge following. He strongly opposes reservation on caste lines and the Atrocities Act. The news went viral after he was detained and released by the Police on Monday when he went to offer prayers at Pitambara Peeth at Datia. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

BJP, Congress caught in quagmire of ticket distribution ahead of Assembly polls

Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will conduct elections to their legislative assemblies over the next seven weeks. Chhattisgarh will be the first to switch on the electronic voting machines (November 12) and will be followed by MP (November 28) and Rajasthan (December 7). The elections to these states are politically significant. They are equally significant from the perspective of (1) economic development, (2) diversity of livelihoods, (3) incomes of households, and (4) the impact of governance on development, rural livelihoods, urban livelihoods and incomes. 
 
The results will answer three questions pertinent to electoral outcomes and economic governance. Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan are not similar to one another. They have serious dissimilarities, though they have been historically and erroneously grouped as India’s economic laggards.

The three states share three significant similarities. First, they have no coastline. Second, their rural households are in a tight range between 73.27 per cent and 74.53 per cent of the total households. By contrast, rural households constitute 67.69 per cent of India’s total households. This rural bias has weighed down heavily and for long on them. Third, all three states have incumbent governments constituted by the same party that governs India now.

The three questions pertinent to electoral outcomes and economic governance will be presented through this summarised assessment of the performance of the incumbent governments of the three states. This assessment is based on the proportion of households with annual incomes (1) below Rs 75,000, (2) between Rs 75,000 and Rs 2,00,000, (3) between Rs 2,00,000 and Rs 3,00,000, (4) between Rs 3,00,000 and Rs 4,00,000, and (5) above Rs 4,00,000.

Each state’s performance is compared with India’s performance. The data are not adjusted for inflation, population growth and migration since such adjustment is unnecessary for cross-sectional comparison.

The first assessment: All three states have performed discernibly better than all of India in the two periods 2011 to 2014 and 2014 to 2017. All three states had accelerated development between 2014 and 2017. There was a 141 per cent growth in the number of rural and urban households that moved from the below-poverty group to the middle-income group across India. By contrast, Chhattisgarh moved 235 per cent more from the below-poverty group to the middle-income group. MP moved 237 per cent more; Rajasthan moved 210 per cent more. The curative impact on the causes of poverty has been comprehensive in the three states.

The first question: Are accelerated poverty reduction and income growth the results when the states and India have incumbent governments constituted by the same party?

The second assessment: All three states have performed discernibly better than all of India in the two periods 2011 to 2014 and 2014 to 2017 in pushing rural households into prosperity. All of India posted a 780 per cent growth in the number of rural households with annual incomes above Rs 4,00,000. By contrast, Chhattisgarh moved 819 per cent more from the middle-income group to the above Rs 4,00,000 group; Madhya Pradesh moved 947 per cent more; Rajasthan moved 921 per cent more. The second question: Is the objective of accomplishing rural prosperity better served when the states and India have incumbent governments constituted by the same party?

The third assessment: Chhattisgarh and MP have dazzled by building a strong rural middle-income group. All of India posted a 759 per cent growth in the number of rural households that moved to the middle-income group from below Rs 75,000. By contrast, Chhattisgarh moved 1,438 per cent more to the middle-income group; MP moved 1,412 per cent more. Rajasthan moved merely 728 per cent more, which is lower than India’s 759 per cent. This performance pertains to the rural middle-income group. However, Rajasthan has posted a 722 per cent growth in the number of urban households that moved to the above Rs 4,00,000 group. By contrast, all of India has posted a 394 per cent growth in the urban households that moved to the above Rs 4,00,000 group. Rajasthan has strengthened its base for manufacturing, mining and tourism-cum-hospitality since 2014. It has facilitated the economic migration of households from rural-agrarian activities to urban-industrial and urban-services activities. Rajasthan has outperformed all of India in enabling its households to move to lower income risk and higher value addition.

Economic variety and heterogeneity are strengths. They reduce the riskiness of household incomes and the aggregate economic risk of the state. Moreover, Rajasthan comprises five different agro-climatic zones (ACZs) that are exposed to higher event risk and failure. By contrast, Chhattisgarh and MP comprise merely one ACZ and three ACZs. Rural incomes in Rajasthan are by nature risky. The third question: How should incumbent governments create, orchestrate and communicate economic policy when the state needs more economic variety and heterogeneous vigour? Is economic migration wrong? It is apt that the three questions will be answered on the same day, December 11, 2018. 
&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on DNA. Read the <a href="https://www.dnaindia.com/analysis/column-three-states-one-empirical-test-and-one-decisive-answer-2681406">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
&nbsp;

Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will conduct elections to their legislative assemblies over the next seven weeks. Chhattisgarh will be the first to switch on the electronic voting machines (November 12) and will be followed by MP (November 28) and Rajasthan (December 7).

Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan will conduct elections to their legislative assemblies over the next seven weeks. Chhattisgarh will be the first to switch on the electronic voting machines (November 12) and will be followed by MP (November 28) and Rajasthan (December 7). The elections to these states are politically significant. They are equally significant from the perspective of (1) economic development, (2) diversity of livelihoods, (3) incomes of households, and (4) the impact of governance on development, rural livelihoods, urban livelihoods and incomes. The results will answer three questions pertinent to electoral outcomes and economic governance. Chhattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan are not similar to one another. They have serious dissimilarities, though they have been historically and erroneously grouped as India’s economic laggards. The three states share three significant similarities. First, they have no coastline. Second, their rural households are in a tight range between 73.27 per cent and 74.53 per cent of the total households. By contrast, rural households constitute 67.69 per cent of India’s total households. This rural bias has weighed down heavily and for long on them. Third, all three states have incumbent governments constituted by the same party that governs India now. The three questions pertinent to electoral outcomes and economic governance will be presented through this summarised assessment of the performance of the incumbent governments of the three states. This assessment is based on the proportion of households with annual incomes (1) below Rs 75,000, (2) between Rs 75,000 and Rs 2,00,000, (3) between Rs 2,00,000 and Rs 3,00,000, (4) between Rs 3,00,000 and Rs 4,00,000, and (5) above Rs 4,00,000. Each state’s performance is compared with India’s performance. The data are not adjusted for inflation, population growth and migration since such adjustment is unnecessary for cross-sectional comparison. The first assessment: All three states have performed discernibly better than all of India in the two periods 2011 to 2014 and 2014 to 2017. All three states had accelerated development between 2014 and 2017. There was a 141 per cent growth in the number of rural and urban households that moved from the below-poverty group to the middle-income group across India. By contrast, Chhattisgarh moved 235 per cent more from the below-poverty group to the middle-income group. MP moved 237 per cent more; Rajasthan moved 210 per cent more. The curative impact on the causes of poverty has been comprehensive in the three states. The first question: Are accelerated poverty reduction and income growth the results when the states and India have incumbent governments constituted by the same party? The second assessment: All three states have performed discernibly better than all of India in the two periods 2011 to 2014 and 2014 to 2017 in pushing rural households into prosperity. All of India posted a 780 per cent growth in the number of rural households with annual incomes above Rs 4,00,000. By contrast, Chhattisgarh moved 819 per cent more from the middle-income group to the above Rs 4,00,000 group; Madhya Pradesh moved 947 per cent more; Rajasthan moved 921 per cent more. The second question: Is the objective of accomplishing rural prosperity better served when the states and India have incumbent governments constituted by the same party? The third assessment: Chhattisgarh and MP have dazzled by building a strong rural middle-income group. All of India posted a 759 per cent growth in the number of rural households that moved to the middle-income group from below Rs 75,000. By contrast, Chhattisgarh moved 1,438 per cent more to the middle-income group; MP moved 1,412 per cent more. Rajasthan moved merely 728 per cent more, which is lower than India’s 759 per cent. This performance pertains to the rural middle-income group. However, Rajasthan has posted a 722 per cent growth in the number of urban households that moved to the above Rs 4,00,000 group. By contrast, all of India has posted a 394 per cent growth in the urban households that moved to the above Rs 4,00,000 group. Rajasthan has strengthened its base for manufacturing, mining and tourism-cum-hospitality since 2014. It has facilitated the economic migration of households from rural-agrarian activities to urban-industrial and urban-services activities. Rajasthan has outperformed all of India in enabling its households to move to lower income risk and higher value addition. Economic variety and heterogeneity are strengths. They reduce the riskiness of household incomes and the aggregate economic risk of the state. Moreover, Rajasthan comprises five different agro-climatic zones (ACZs) that are exposed to higher event risk and failure. By contrast, Chhattisgarh and MP comprise merely one ACZ and three ACZs. Rural incomes in Rajasthan are by nature risky. The third question: How should incumbent governments create, orchestrate and communicate economic policy when the state needs more economic variety and heterogeneous vigour? Is economic migration wrong? It is apt that the three questions will be answered on the same day, December 11, 2018. (This article was originally published on DNA. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Three states, one empirical test and one decisive answer

The semifinals for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are well and truly on. Five states are going to elect their new Vidhan Sabhas in next month or so, and three of these states belong to the critical Hindi heartland. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are crucial heartland states that enabled BJP's stellar performance in 2014. According to the Cvoter opinion poll, Congress seems to be in the poll position in all 3 states. In Rajasthan, Congress leads by a strong margin whereas in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the fight is close. In fact, the election in the latter two might well be decided quite late in the day, dependent upon factors such as campaign strategy, ticket allocation and infighting among others.

Highly critical will be the choice of chief ministerial candidates as leadership question is a point of concern for Congress. Particularly in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the respective BJP Chief Ministers viz Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh continue to be very popular. In fact, the major anti-incumbency sentiment seems to be against the incumbent MLAs who have not managed their constituencies well. Perhaps denial of tickets to such non-performing MLAs might help the BJP to blunt the anti-incumbency sentiment, especially considering the less than 1 per cent vote share trail in opinion poll vis a vis Congress.&nbsp;

In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, there is a dead heat between Congress and BJP. This is not the case in Rajasthan, the incumbent Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje is less popular than the main challenger from Congress Sachin Pilot. In MP, Jyotiraditya Scindia of Congress is less popular than Shivraj Singh Chauhan and in Chattisgarh, the main challenger to chief minister Raman Singh is Ajit Jogi who does not even belong to the Congress. That leaves Rajasthan as the only state where Congress has a leadership rating advantage.&nbsp;

<img alt="Table 1" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f2e65833-5dfb-4106-aa25-045212c57d01" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Table-1%20Final.jpg" />

Over and above that, Cvoter survey also dwelled upon the question of a bipolar contest to check the infighting sentiment. That is, when the candidates' field is narrowed down to two main challengers in the fray, there is always a churning among the party supporters who favour one party candidate over the other. In Madhya Pradesh, if the choice between Scindia and Chauhan was presented, Chauhan proved to more popular than Scindia. What is important to underline here is the fact that almost 50 per cent supporters of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh are not staying loyal to party line for the candidature of Jyotiraditya Scindia in bipolar setup against Shivraj Singh Chauhan.

Almost 25 per cent of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh supporters shift allegiance to BJP CM Candidate and the rest are assuming a neutral position. This clearly opens up the internal fault-lines of Congress leadership in Madhya Pradesh.&nbsp; 
 
<img alt="Table 2" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="a602dcd4-4f77-4a5d-b061-bde21cae24a2" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Table2.jpg" />

In Chhattisgarh, a direct contest between Raman Singh and Ajit Jogi may precipitate 1/3rd of Congress supporters to shift support to BJP chief minister candidate and another 1/3rd may move to Jogi's camp, the rest are assuming a position of neutrality. This argues rather poorly for a party which is leading over BJP by less than a point at the moment. Jogi becomes a choice by default for many anti-BJP voters just because Congress is unable to give a name for the chief minister post. If the Congress leadership is well defined, it will not take much of a time for the anti-BJP voters getting polarized in a clear-cut manner. 
 
<img alt="Table 3" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="4efd1661-e4e2-4945-9f78-52efab452a77" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Table%203.jpg" />

The state of Rajasthan is in complete contrast to MP and Chhattisgarh. In Rajasthan, a bipolar contest of Sachin Pilot and Vasundhara Raje is clearly producing results in favour of Congress candidate. Almost two-third supporters of other Congress candidates, like Ashok Gehlot and CP Joshi, are continuing to support the candidature of Sachin Pilot in a bipolar rating. Unlike other states, the young voters and first-time voters of Rajasthan are rallying for a clean image of the rather young Sachin Pilot. His face is clearly instrumental in swinging the undecided young voters, who otherwise get neutralized by the corruption-tagged image of old Congress leadership in the state.&nbsp; 
 
<img alt="Table 4" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fa9d3d44-451e-4755-98ef-1c484d525d41" src="/sites/default/files/inline-images/Table4.jpg" />

Clearly, Congress is facing infighting and factionalism in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh while it comes across as a much-united house in Rajasthan. This point becomes salient in the light of less than 1 per cent projected vote share lead according to the Cvoter opinion poll in the states of MP and Chhattisgarh.

The overwhelming popularity of PM Narendra Modi has been the key electoral weapon for BJP in the past 3-4 years. Election after election in last four years has shown that there is a distinct surge of 3-4 per cent vote share that gets imparted by PM Narendra Modi in closing stages of the campaign. In MP and Chhattisgarh, such a vote surge can easily topple the Congress lead. In the case of Rajasthan, the projected lead of Congress seems to be clear of any potential late surge by BJP. The masses flocking to PM's rallies in Rajasthan may listen to him and vote for him in Lok Sabha elections but for Vidhan Sabha polls the mood seems to be made up.&nbsp;

Finally, Congress is making a mistake by not announcing official candidates in the three states. For examples, in MP an official announcement in favour of Scindia may polarize young voters in favour of Congress, the same may happen in Rajasthan and an official affirmation of Sachin Pilot could produce an electoral dividend thus confirming the Congress victory that is increasingly likely. In Chhattisgarh, the Congress may announce an official candidate such as TS Singh Dev or Bhupesh Baghel to blunt the edge of Ajit Jogi. In fact, currently, Jogi is being favoured only because of non-announcement of a Congress candidate.&nbsp;

Therefore, Congress has all to gain by the announcement of official Chief Ministerial candidates. It may gain that crucial edge over the BJP in MP and Chhattisgarh and further solidify its robust lead in Rajasthan. In case this does not happen then a late BJP surge induced by PM Modi's campaign may end up being crucial, however, it is tough to estimate its impact quantitatively as of now.&nbsp;

There is a huge rating deficit that Congress faces when the national Leadership ratings are compared. The gap in approval ratings of NaMo and RaGa is a big electoral liability at the moment for the Congress at large. The only way it can counter that liability is by projecting the much popular young faces at the state level against the state BJP leadership. If done properly, then faces of Sachin Pilot, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Bhupesh Baghel can do the needful to counter the mega rallies of Narendra Modi in concluding weeks of the campaign. If they continue the blunder in positioning this round as contest of national leaderships, then we all know what kind of punch Mr Modi is capable of delivering.&nbsp;

I don't think Congress wants to take the battle in that direction. 
&nbsp;

(This article was originally published on Zee News. Read the <a href="http://zeenews.india.com/blogs/will-congress-blunder-again-by-making-assembly-elections-a-raga-vs-namo-battle-2151613.html">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

The semifinals for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are well and truly on. Five states are going to elect their new Vidhan Sabhas in next month or so, and three of these states belong to the critical Hindi heartland.

The semifinals for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections are well and truly on. Five states are going to elect their new Vidhan Sabhas in next month or so, and three of these states belong to the critical Hindi heartland. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are crucial heartland states that enabled BJP's stellar performance in 2014. According to the Cvoter opinion poll, Congress seems to be in the poll position in all 3 states. In Rajasthan, Congress leads by a strong margin whereas in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the fight is close. In fact, the election in the latter two might well be decided quite late in the day, dependent upon factors such as campaign strategy, ticket allocation and infighting among others. Highly critical will be the choice of chief ministerial candidates as leadership question is a point of concern for Congress. Particularly in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh the respective BJP Chief Ministers viz Shivraj Singh Chauhan and Raman Singh continue to be very popular. In fact, the major anti-incumbency sentiment seems to be against the incumbent MLAs who have not managed their constituencies well. Perhaps denial of tickets to such non-performing MLAs might help the BJP to blunt the anti-incumbency sentiment, especially considering the less than 1 per cent vote share trail in opinion poll vis a vis Congress. In Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh, there is a dead heat between Congress and BJP. This is not the case in Rajasthan, the incumbent Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje is less popular than the main challenger from Congress Sachin Pilot. In MP, Jyotiraditya Scindia of Congress is less popular than Shivraj Singh Chauhan and in Chattisgarh, the main challenger to chief minister Raman Singh is Ajit Jogi who does not even belong to the Congress. That leaves Rajasthan as the only state where Congress has a leadership rating advantage. Over and above that, Cvoter survey also dwelled upon the question of a bipolar contest to check the infighting sentiment. That is, when the candidates' field is narrowed down to two main challengers in the fray, there is always a churning among the party supporters who favour one party candidate over the other. In Madhya Pradesh, if the choice between Scindia and Chauhan was presented, Chauhan proved to more popular than Scindia. What is important to underline here is the fact that almost 50 per cent supporters of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh are not staying loyal to party line for the candidature of Jyotiraditya Scindia in bipolar setup against Shivraj Singh Chauhan. Almost 25 per cent of Kamal Nath and Digvijaya Singh supporters shift allegiance to BJP CM Candidate and the rest are assuming a neutral position. This clearly opens up the internal fault-lines of Congress leadership in Madhya Pradesh. In Chhattisgarh, a direct contest between Raman Singh and Ajit Jogi may precipitate 1/3rd of Congress supporters to shift support to BJP chief minister candidate and another 1/3rd may move to Jogi's camp, the rest are assuming a position of neutrality. This argues rather poorly for a party which is leading over BJP by less than a point at the moment. Jogi becomes a choice by default for many anti-BJP voters just because Congress is unable to give a name for the chief minister post. If the Congress leadership is well defined, it will not take much of a time for the anti-BJP voters getting polarized in a clear-cut manner. The state of Rajasthan is in complete contrast to MP and Chhattisgarh. In Rajasthan, a bipolar contest of Sachin Pilot and Vasundhara Raje is clearly producing results in favour of Congress candidate. Almost two-third supporters of other Congress candidates, like Ashok Gehlot and CP Joshi, are continuing to support the candidature of Sachin Pilot in a bipolar rating. Unlike other states, the young voters and first-time voters of Rajasthan are rallying for a clean image of the rather young Sachin Pilot. His face is clearly instrumental in swinging the undecided young voters, who otherwise get neutralized by the corruption-tagged image of old Congress leadership in the state. Clearly, Congress is facing infighting and factionalism in Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh while it comes across as a much-united house in Rajasthan. This point becomes salient in the light of less than 1 per cent projected vote share lead according to the Cvoter opinion poll in the states of MP and Chhattisgarh. The overwhelming popularity of PM Narendra Modi has been the key electoral weapon for BJP in the past 3-4 years. Election after election in last four years has shown that there is a distinct surge of 3-4 per cent vote share that gets imparted by PM Narendra Modi in closing stages of the campaign. In MP and Chhattisgarh, such a vote surge can easily topple the Congress lead. In the case of Rajasthan, the projected lead of Congress seems to be clear of any potential late surge by BJP. The masses flocking to PM's rallies in Rajasthan may listen to him and vote for him in Lok Sabha elections but for Vidhan Sabha polls the mood seems to be made up. Finally, Congress is making a mistake by not announcing official candidates in the three states. For examples, in MP an official announcement in favour of Scindia may polarize young voters in favour of Congress, the same may happen in Rajasthan and an official affirmation of Sachin Pilot could produce an electoral dividend thus confirming the Congress victory that is increasingly likely. In Chhattisgarh, the Congress may announce an official candidate such as TS Singh Dev or Bhupesh Baghel to blunt the edge of Ajit Jogi. In fact, currently, Jogi is being favoured only because of non-announcement of a Congress candidate. Therefore, Congress has all to gain by the announcement of official Chief Ministerial candidates. It may gain that crucial edge over the BJP in MP and Chhattisgarh and further solidify its robust lead in Rajasthan. In case this does not happen then a late BJP surge induced by PM Modi's campaign may end up being crucial, however, it is tough to estimate its impact quantitatively as of now. There is a huge rating deficit that Congress faces when the national Leadership ratings are compared. The gap in approval ratings of NaMo and RaGa is a big electoral liability at the moment for the Congress at large. The only way it can counter that liability is by projecting the much popular young faces at the state level against the state BJP leadership. If done properly, then faces of Sachin Pilot, Jyotiraditya Scindia and Bhupesh Baghel can do the needful to counter the mega rallies of Narendra Modi in concluding weeks of the campaign. If they continue the blunder in positioning this round as contest of national leaderships, then we all know what kind of punch Mr Modi is capable of delivering. I don't think Congress wants to take the battle in that direction. (This article was originally published on Zee News. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Will Congress blunder again by making Assembly elections a Rahul vs Modi battle?

With dates for five Assembly elections announced, all eyes are focused on the two large and politically crucial states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. However, it’s the smallest one in the list, Mizoram, which holds the key to whether the Congress will be able to retain even its depleted presence in the Northeast, or whether the Bharatiya Janata Party will sustain its recent successes in the region. The politics of the northeastern States is critical from the perspective of the country’s security, sovereignty and integrity — more than any other region with the exception of Jammu &amp; Kashmir — and Mizoram is an important element in that overall scheme of things.&nbsp;

Mizoram is the last standing citadel of the Congress in the North-East, but that bastion is under attack. Party affairs are in a mess in the State; only recently, R Lalzirliana, one of its senior leaders and home minister in the Government of Lal Thanhawla, quit following differences with the chief minister. So did former health minister Lalrinliana Sailo. The party’s local leadership has tried to play down the development, claiming that the two Ministers had to leave because of serious allegations of corruption against them. But that does not explain the widely-held apprehension in party ranks that more desertions can happen in the run-up to the Assembly election, to be held on November 28. &nbsp;

It’s not just the problems that many Congress leaders have with the local leadership led by Lal Thanhawla. There is the fear of anti-incumbency too. The Congress regime has been in power since 2008, and the fatigue factor has begun to show. Many influential leaders have been rubbed the wrong way in the last decade that corresponded with the emergence of Lal Thanhawla’s iron hand. In the earlier years, dissident leaders had no option but to swallow the insult; they had nowhere to go. The main opposition party, the Mizo National Front (MNF), had been sidelined and over the years become quite ineffective. It had won just five seats in the 40-member House in the 2013 election, while the Congress had bagged 34 seats. Things have changed since then.&nbsp;

First, the MNF led by Zoramthanga has been strengthened by its partnership with the BJP, via the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA); the MNF chief is a founder-member of the alliance. Second, the MNF is upbeat over the departure of key leaders from the Congress and would be quite happy to accommodate the rebels. Third, it is banking on the strong anti-incumbency factor. And fourth, it believes that the BJP’s recent successes in the North-East, both in an individual capacity and through alliances, will impact the mood of the electorate in Mizoram too. &nbsp; 
&nbsp; 
The BJP is content to let events play out in its favour. It will repeat the strategy it has deployed in the other northeastern States — that of cementing partnerships with local players and taking a subordinate position whenever the situation demands. In Meghalaya, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, the party tied up with regional outfits and outwitted the Congress in the electoral battle. In Assam and Tripura, although it swept the polls on its own, it still proceeded to form coalition regimes with regional parties. The BJP wants its NEDA experiment to keep delivering results, even if in the process it has to take a back seat in some cases. The BJP does not have a strong cadre in Mizoram, and will, like in the case of Meghalaya and Manipur, hope to ride piggyback on local allies to victory.&nbsp;&nbsp;

Incidentally, of the seven States in the Northeast, it’s the Meghalaya reminder that will trouble the Congress the most and elate the opposition equally as much. Prior to Assembly election in Meghalaya earlier this year, several leaders had quit the Congress (five among them were sitting Legislators). The party was defeated. Does a similar scenario await the Congress in Mizoram? Or is the opposition overly optimistic, given that the Congress is hardly a pushover in the state? We will know on December 11. &nbsp; 
 
(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

With dates for five Assembly elections announced, all eyes are focused on the two large and politically crucial states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. However, it’s the smallest one in the list, Mizoram, which holds the key to whether the Congress will be able to retain even its depleted presence in the Northeast, or whether the Bharatiya Janata Party will sustain its recent successes in the region.

With dates for five Assembly elections announced, all eyes are focused on the two large and politically crucial states of Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. However, it’s the smallest one in the list, Mizoram, which holds the key to whether the Congress will be able to retain even its depleted presence in the Northeast, or whether the Bharatiya Janata Party will sustain its recent successes in the region. The politics of the northeastern States is critical from the perspective of the country’s security, sovereignty and integrity — more than any other region with the exception of Jammu & Kashmir — and Mizoram is an important element in that overall scheme of things. Mizoram is the last standing citadel of the Congress in the North-East, but that bastion is under attack. Party affairs are in a mess in the State; only recently, R Lalzirliana, one of its senior leaders and home minister in the Government of Lal Thanhawla, quit following differences with the chief minister. So did former health minister Lalrinliana Sailo. The party’s local leadership has tried to play down the development, claiming that the two Ministers had to leave because of serious allegations of corruption against them. But that does not explain the widely-held apprehension in party ranks that more desertions can happen in the run-up to the Assembly election, to be held on November 28. It’s not just the problems that many Congress leaders have with the local leadership led by Lal Thanhawla. There is the fear of anti-incumbency too. The Congress regime has been in power since 2008, and the fatigue factor has begun to show. Many influential leaders have been rubbed the wrong way in the last decade that corresponded with the emergence of Lal Thanhawla’s iron hand. In the earlier years, dissident leaders had no option but to swallow the insult; they had nowhere to go. The main opposition party, the Mizo National Front (MNF), had been sidelined and over the years become quite ineffective. It had won just five seats in the 40-member House in the 2013 election, while the Congress had bagged 34 seats. Things have changed since then. First, the MNF led by Zoramthanga has been strengthened by its partnership with the BJP, via the North East Democratic Alliance (NEDA); the MNF chief is a founder-member of the alliance. Second, the MNF is upbeat over the departure of key leaders from the Congress and would be quite happy to accommodate the rebels. Third, it is banking on the strong anti-incumbency factor. And fourth, it believes that the BJP’s recent successes in the North-East, both in an individual capacity and through alliances, will impact the mood of the electorate in Mizoram too. The BJP is content to let events play out in its favour. It will repeat the strategy it has deployed in the other northeastern States — that of cementing partnerships with local players and taking a subordinate position whenever the situation demands. In Meghalaya, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh, the party tied up with regional outfits and outwitted the Congress in the electoral battle. In Assam and Tripura, although it swept the polls on its own, it still proceeded to form coalition regimes with regional parties. The BJP wants its NEDA experiment to keep delivering results, even if in the process it has to take a back seat in some cases. The BJP does not have a strong cadre in Mizoram, and will, like in the case of Meghalaya and Manipur, hope to ride piggyback on local allies to victory. Incidentally, of the seven States in the Northeast, it’s the Meghalaya reminder that will trouble the Congress the most and elate the opposition equally as much. Prior to Assembly election in Meghalaya earlier this year, several leaders had quit the Congress (five among them were sitting Legislators). The party was defeated. Does a similar scenario await the Congress in Mizoram? Or is the opposition overly optimistic, given that the Congress is hardly a pushover in the state? We will know on December 11. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Mizoram polls more crucial for Congress than BJP

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