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Donald Trump’s renewed pressure on US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has rattled both Washington and Wall Street. At the centre of the storm is a simple but unprecedented question: Can Trump fire Powell? And if he does, what happens next? While Trump has publicly downplayed the idea, calling Powell’s removal “highly unlikely, unless he has to leave for fraud”, reports of the president preparing for action have stirred markets and alarmed legal scholars.&nbsp;Let’s unpack the legal grey zones, market reactions, and the political risks of what would be a first in US history.<h2>Could Trump legally fire Jerome Powell?</h2>At the heart of the debate is Section 10 of the Federal Reserve Act, which states that members of the Fed’s Board of Governors, including the Chair “can be removed for cause”. However, the phrase “for cause” has never been tested in the Supreme Court within the context of the Federal Reserve.&nbsp;&nbsp;According to a Columbia Law School paper by Jane Manners and Lev Menand, the term typically refers to inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office. These standards are vague and rarely applied, and no US president has ever attempted to invoke them against a Fed chair. If Trump were to act, it would almost certainly set off a legal battle. As per Bloomberg, Powell could seek an emergency injunction from a federal court to stay in office while litigation unfolds. The case would likely reach the Supreme Court, creating a high-profile test of presidential power.<h2>What is the ‘fraud’ claim Trump is citing?</h2>Trump has pointed to the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters in Washington, up from a previous estimate of $1.9 billion, as potential grounds for dismissal. The cost increases stemmed from asbestos issues, design changes, and regulatory reviews. The decision was approved by the Fed board, not Powell personally.&nbsp;Still, Trump and his allies are building a narrative. On July 10, Russell Vought, former White House budget chief, called the renovation an “ostentatious overhaul” on social media. Bill Pulte, a Trump-appointed regulator at the Federal Housing Finance Agency, accused Powell of misleading Congress, though no evidence has been presented. The Fed maintains that Powell testified accurately, and the central bank’s Inspector General has opened a probe at Powell’s own request.<h2>What happens if Powell is removed?</h2>If Trump removes Powell, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, a Biden appointee, would serve as acting chair under existing law. A permanent replacement would require Senate confirmation, a process that could stretch for weeks or months. But replacing Powell may not deliver Trump’s intended outcome. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which actually sets interest rates, can choose its own chair and is not legally bound to select the Fed chair.&nbsp;&nbsp;While traditionally the roles have aligned, the FOMC has 19 members (12 of whom vote), any of whom could be elected as chair. This means Trump could remove Powell but still fail to control monetary policy, particularly if Jefferson or another member continues the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts.<h2>What would the courts say?</h2>The Supreme Court has recently tilted in favour of broader presidential powers, particularly in Trump-related rulings. In 2024, it granted him sweeping criminal immunity and allowed contested policies to proceed. Still, the Court has treated the Fed differently. In a May 2024 decision, it referred to the central bank as a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity”, implying that the president’s authority over it may be more limited than with other agencies.&nbsp;Boston University’s Jed Shugerman told Reuters that the current court seems to be “getting out of Trump’s way”, but others like Jonathan Shaub of the University of Kentucky caution that even if Trump’s actions are ruled illegal, the courts may hesitate to reinstate Powell, especially given recent rulings that restrict judicial reappointments of senior officials.<h2>How did markets react?</h2>The threat to Powell’s tenure triggered a swift reaction in global markets. Within 30 minutes of the Bloomberg report detailing Trump’s potential move, the S&amp;P 500 fell by 1 per cent. Yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds surged by 10 basis points, reflecting fears of long-term volatility. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid by 1.2 per cent, signalling concerns about the Fed’s future policy stance.&nbsp;These moves reflect the Fed’s foundational role in market stability. Investors are deeply concerned about political interference in central banking, especially at a time when inflation remains volatile and the US economy is navigating post-COVID interest rate dynamics.<h2>Could Trump win the legal fight?</h2>It depends on how the case is framed. If Trump argues that Powell was inefficient or engaged in misconduct over the building renovation, courts would have to assess whether Powell directly authorised the overruns, whether those actions meet the legal standard for “cause”, and whether the Fed’s semi-independent status insulates him from dismissal altogether. There is no precedent. No Fed chair has ever been fired.&nbsp;&nbsp;The Supreme Court has never ruled on this issue. But with Washington’s political landscape shifting and the judiciary’s recent deference to presidential power, Trump may find a path, albeit a legally contested one. Trump’s feud with Jerome Powell is no longer just a monetary policy debate. It’s a constitutional confrontation over the limits of presidential authority, the independence of America’s central bank, and the credibility of financial governance. If Trump proceeds, the consequences will go far beyond interest rates. It would be a test of how far the US system is willing to stretch or break under pressure from a single president.<h2>Has any US president fired a Fed chair?</h2>No US president has ever fired a sitting Federal Reserve Chair. Not during war, economic crisis, or political turmoil. Even in past disagreements, such as Richard Nixon’s clash with then-Chair Arthur Burns, the White House never took legal action to remove the Fed head.&nbsp;According to legal scholars cited by Bloomberg, the Federal Reserve has long been viewed as an independent agency, buffered from direct political control. Trump’s attempt would mark a historical first and test the constitutional boundaries of executive power. &nbsp;

If Trump proceeds, it could lead to a significant legal battle, testing the limits of presidential power and the independence of the Fed. Historically, no president has dismissed a Fed chair, highlighting how unprecedented Trump actions would be. 

Donald Trump’s renewed pressure on US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has rattled both Washington and Wall Street. At the centre of the storm is a simple but unprecedented question: Can Trump fire Powell? And if he does, what happens next? While Trump has publicly downplayed the idea, calling Powell’s removal “highly unlikely, unless he has to leave for fraud”, reports of the president preparing for action have stirred markets and alarmed legal scholars. Let’s unpack the legal grey zones, market reactions, and the political risks of what would be a first in US history. Could Trump legally fire Jerome Powell? At the heart of the debate is Section 10 of the Federal Reserve Act, which states that members of the Fed’s Board of Governors, including the Chair “can be removed for cause”. However, the phrase “for cause” has never been tested in the Supreme Court within the context of the Federal Reserve. According to a Columbia Law School paper by Jane Manners and Lev Menand, the term typically refers to inefficiency, neglect of duty, or malfeasance in office. These standards are vague and rarely applied, and no US president has ever attempted to invoke them against a Fed chair. If Trump were to act, it would almost certainly set off a legal battle. As per Bloomberg, Powell could seek an emergency injunction from a federal court to stay in office while litigation unfolds. The case would likely reach the Supreme Court, creating a high-profile test of presidential power. What is the ‘fraud’ claim Trump is citing? Trump has pointed to the $2.5 billion renovation of the Fed’s headquarters in Washington, up from a previous estimate of $1.9 billion, as potential grounds for dismissal. The cost increases stemmed from asbestos issues, design changes, and regulatory reviews. The decision was approved by the Fed board, not Powell personally. Still, Trump and his allies are building a narrative. On July 10, Russell Vought, former White House budget chief, called the renovation an “ostentatious overhaul” on social media. Bill Pulte, a Trump-appointed regulator at the Federal Housing Finance Agency, accused Powell of misleading Congress, though no evidence has been presented. The Fed maintains that Powell testified accurately, and the central bank’s Inspector General has opened a probe at Powell’s own request. What happens if Powell is removed? If Trump removes Powell, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, a Biden appointee, would serve as acting chair under existing law. A permanent replacement would require Senate confirmation, a process that could stretch for weeks or months. But replacing Powell may not deliver Trump’s intended outcome. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which actually sets interest rates, can choose its own chair and is not legally bound to select the Fed chair. While traditionally the roles have aligned, the FOMC has 19 members (12 of whom vote), any of whom could be elected as chair. This means Trump could remove Powell but still fail to control monetary policy, particularly if Jefferson or another member continues the Fed’s cautious stance on rate cuts. What would the courts say? The Supreme Court has recently tilted in favour of broader presidential powers, particularly in Trump-related rulings. In 2024, it granted him sweeping criminal immunity and allowed contested policies to proceed. Still, the Court has treated the Fed differently. In a May 2024 decision, it referred to the central bank as a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity”, implying that the president’s authority over it may be more limited than with other agencies. Boston University’s Jed Shugerman told Reuters that the current court seems to be “getting out of Trump’s way”, but others like Jonathan Shaub of the University of Kentucky caution that even if Trump’s actions are ruled illegal, the courts may hesitate to reinstate Powell, especially given recent rulings that restrict judicial reappointments of senior officials. How did markets react? The threat to Powell’s tenure triggered a swift reaction in global markets. Within 30 minutes of the Bloomberg report detailing Trump’s potential move, the S&P 500 fell by 1 per cent. Yields on 30-year US Treasury bonds surged by 10 basis points, reflecting fears of long-term volatility. Meanwhile, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index slid by 1.2 per cent, signalling concerns about the Fed’s future policy stance. These moves reflect the Fed’s foundational role in market stability. Investors are deeply concerned about political interference in central banking, especially at a time when inflation remains volatile and the US economy is navigating post-COVID interest rate dynamics. Could Trump win the legal fight? It depends on how the case is framed. If Trump argues that Powell was inefficient or engaged in misconduct over the building renovation, courts would have to assess whether Powell directly authorised the overruns, whether those actions meet the legal standard for “cause”, and whether the Fed’s semi-independent status insulates him from dismissal altogether. There is no precedent. No Fed chair has ever been fired. The Supreme Court has never ruled on this issue. But with Washington’s political landscape shifting and the judiciary’s recent deference to presidential power, Trump may find a path, albeit a legally contested one. Trump’s feud with Jerome Powell is no longer just a monetary policy debate. It’s a constitutional confrontation over the limits of presidential authority, the independence of America’s central bank, and the credibility of financial governance. If Trump proceeds, the consequences will go far beyond interest rates. It would be a test of how far the US system is willing to stretch or break under pressure from a single president. Has any US president fired a Fed chair? No US president has ever fired a sitting Federal Reserve Chair. Not during war, economic crisis, or political turmoil. Even in past disagreements, such as Richard Nixon’s clash with then-Chair Arthur Burns, the White House never took legal action to remove the Fed head. According to legal scholars cited by Bloomberg, the Federal Reserve has long been viewed as an independent agency, buffered from direct political control. Trump’s attempt would mark a historical first and test the constitutional boundaries of executive power.

Donald Trump is exerting pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, raising questions about whether he can legally fire him. Though he had denied he won't do it, but what happens if he does?

Trump vs Powell: Can the US president fire the Fed chair?

In a landmark decision on July 16, South Korea’s Supreme Court cleared Samsung Electronics Chairman Jay Y. Lee of all charges related to an $8 billion merger involving two of the company’s affiliates, Samsung C&amp;T and Cheil Industries, in 2015. The ruling effectively ends one of the most high-profile corporate trials in the country, removing a long-running legal risk for Lee and Samsung. This development is seen as a major boost for Samsung’s leadership at a critical time as it seeks to lead in the global AI chip race.The case, which centred on accusations of accounting fraud, stock manipulation, and market violations, had dragged on for nearly five years. Lee was initially accused of using the merger to solidify his control over the conglomerate and manipulate stock prices to his advantage. The Supreme Court upheld lower court rulings that found insufficient evidence for the charges, marking a decisive end to the legal battle that had clouded Lee’s ability to lead the company.<h2>A long-running legal battle comes to an end</h2>At the heart of the case were allegations that Lee and his aides orchestrated the 2015 merger to help secure his succession as the leader of Samsung Group following the health crisis of his father, Lee Kun-hee, who had been in a coma since 2014. Prosecutors argued that Lee's team manipulated stock prices and engaged in fraudulent accounting practices to push the deal through, but the courts ultimately found the evidence insufficient.One of the key factors in the court’s decision was the exclusion of certain digital evidence, including data from Samsung Biologics and Samsung Bioepis servers, which prosecutors had obtained during a search. The court ruled that the authorities had failed to adhere to legal procedures when collecting the data, violating the defendants’ rights. As a result, the evidence could not be used to support the charges.The ruling comes as a welcome relief to both Samsung and Lee, as the prolonged uncertainty had weighed heavily on investor confidence and posed a risk to the company’s stability. Shares of Samsung Electronics surged 3.1 per cent following the decision, outperforming the flat market benchmark KOSPI. Analysts attribute the rise to the resolution of legal uncertainty surrounding the company and the broader optimism about Samsung’s prospects.<h2>Boost for Samsung’s future amid global tech rivalry</h2>The acquittal of Lee is expected to provide a significant boost to Samsung, which is currently navigating intense global competition in sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Analysts believe that the ruling will allow Lee to focus on long-term growth initiatives without the distraction of legal battles, enabling Samsung to maintain its position as a global technology leader.“The Supreme Court ruling clears a layer of legal uncertainty, which could be a long-term positive for Samsung,” Ryu Young-ho, a senior analyst at NH Investment &amp; Securities, told Reuters. “If the owner takes a more active role, it could allow management to focus more on long-term initiatives rather than short-term results.”For Samsung, this legal clarity could be critical as it looks to ramp up investment in cutting-edge technologies such as AI chips. The company is also facing increasing pressure from rivals in the semiconductor industry, particularly from US-based companies like Intel and Nvidia.While the ruling provides much-needed stability for Samsung, it also highlights the challenges Lee faces in solidifying his control over the conglomerate and steering it through a period of technological transformation. As one of South Korea’s largest and most influential companies, Samsung’s fortunes have a significant impact on the country’s broader economy. Business lobby groups have praised the ruling, calling it a stabilising force at a time of economic uncertainty.

The ruling effectively ends one of the most high-profile corporate trials in the country, removing a long-running legal risk for Lee and Samsung. This development is seen as a major boost for Samsung’s leadership at a critical time as it seeks to lead in the global AI chip race.

In a landmark decision on July 16, South Korea’s Supreme Court cleared Samsung Electronics Chairman Jay Y. Lee of all charges related to an $8 billion merger involving two of the company’s affiliates, Samsung C&T and Cheil Industries, in 2015. The ruling effectively ends one of the most high-profile corporate trials in the country, removing a long-running legal risk for Lee and Samsung. This development is seen as a major boost for Samsung’s leadership at a critical time as it seeks to lead in the global AI chip race. The case, which centred on accusations of accounting fraud, stock manipulation, and market violations, had dragged on for nearly five years. Lee was initially accused of using the merger to solidify his control over the conglomerate and manipulate stock prices to his advantage. The Supreme Court upheld lower court rulings that found insufficient evidence for the charges, marking a decisive end to the legal battle that had clouded Lee’s ability to lead the company. A long-running legal battle comes to an end At the heart of the case were allegations that Lee and his aides orchestrated the 2015 merger to help secure his succession as the leader of Samsung Group following the health crisis of his father, Lee Kun-hee, who had been in a coma since 2014. Prosecutors argued that Lee's team manipulated stock prices and engaged in fraudulent accounting practices to push the deal through, but the courts ultimately found the evidence insufficient. One of the key factors in the court’s decision was the exclusion of certain digital evidence, including data from Samsung Biologics and Samsung Bioepis servers, which prosecutors had obtained during a search. The court ruled that the authorities had failed to adhere to legal procedures when collecting the data, violating the defendants’ rights. As a result, the evidence could not be used to support the charges. The ruling comes as a welcome relief to both Samsung and Lee, as the prolonged uncertainty had weighed heavily on investor confidence and posed a risk to the company’s stability. Shares of Samsung Electronics surged 3.1 per cent following the decision, outperforming the flat market benchmark KOSPI. Analysts attribute the rise to the resolution of legal uncertainty surrounding the company and the broader optimism about Samsung’s prospects. Boost for Samsung’s future amid global tech rivalry The acquittal of Lee is expected to provide a significant boost to Samsung, which is currently navigating intense global competition in sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors. Analysts believe that the ruling will allow Lee to focus on long-term growth initiatives without the distraction of legal battles, enabling Samsung to maintain its position as a global technology leader. “The Supreme Court ruling clears a layer of legal uncertainty, which could be a long-term positive for Samsung,” Ryu Young-ho, a senior analyst at NH Investment & Securities, told Reuters. “If the owner takes a more active role, it could allow management to focus more on long-term initiatives rather than short-term results.” For Samsung, this legal clarity could be critical as it looks to ramp up investment in cutting-edge technologies such as AI chips. The company is also facing increasing pressure from rivals in the semiconductor industry, particularly from US-based companies like Intel and Nvidia. While the ruling provides much-needed stability for Samsung, it also highlights the challenges Lee faces in solidifying his control over the conglomerate and steering it through a period of technological transformation. As one of South Korea’s largest and most influential companies, Samsung’s fortunes have a significant impact on the country’s broader economy. Business lobby groups have praised the ruling, calling it a stabilising force at a time of economic uncertainty.

The ruling effectively ends one of the most high-profile corporate trials in the country, removing a long-running legal risk for Lee and Samsung. This development is seen as a major boost for Samsung’s leadership at a critical time as it seeks to lead in the global AI chip race.

Samsung chairman cleared of fraud charges, legal uncertainty removed

Australia’s labour market has shown its first signs of strain in years, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly surging to a 3.5-year high in June, prompting markets to sharply raise expectations of an interest rate cut as early as August. According to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday, the jobless rate rose to 4.3 per cent, the highest level since November 2021, up from 4.1 per cent in May. Employment rose by just 2,000 jobs in June, falling well short of economists’ expectations of a 20,000 gain.&nbsp;The soft print weighed on the Australian dollar, which fell 0.7 per cent to $0.6480, its weakest level in over three weeks. Bond markets also responded strongly, with three-year government bond yields tumbling 10 basis points to 3.386 per cent, while interest rate futures priced in an 85 per cent chance of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in August, up from 76 per cent earlier, as reported by Reuters.<h2>Rate cut speculation gains momentum</h2>The weak jobs data adds to the case for more policy easing. The RBA has already slashed interest rates twice this year to 3.85 per cent, but held them steady at its last meeting, citing concerns about sticky inflation.&nbsp;“While we’re still not ringing the alarm bells, June’s slackening is another good reason for the RBA to get a wriggle on with rate cuts,” said Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research at Oxford Economics Australia, as quoted by Reuters.&nbsp;Cruise also noted that the labour market faces fresh headwinds, particularly from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which he said were “weighing on business investment and prompting some firms to rethink hiring plans.”<h2>Labour market cracks widen</h2>The underlying details of the report were notably soft. Full-time jobs dropped by 38,200, partially offset by a rise in part-time roles. Hours worked also fell by 0.9 per cent, erasing gains from May. Despite the higher unemployment, the labour force participation rate edged up slightly to 67.1 per cent. While leading indicators such as job vacancies had recently shown signs of stabilising—up 2.9 per cent in the May quarter—private sector job ad data from June showed a rebound to 12-month highs, suggesting the labour market may still hold some resilience.&nbsp;Yet analysts remain concerned about the overall direction. “There are clear signs of deceleration emerging in the labour market. This calls into question the RBA’s decision to prioritise inflation over growth and jobs at its meeting earlier this month,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, as quoted by Reuters.<h2>Inflation, jobs, and a tricky RBA path</h2>Despite slowing growth, the RBA remains cautious. It wants to see clear signs that inflation is falling back toward its 2–3 per cent target range. Key data on third-quarter inflation, due later this month, will be pivotal in shaping the central bank’s next move.So far, the rate cuts have not sparked a surge in consumer demand. As per Reuters, economic growth remains sluggish, with household spending subdued.&nbsp;With jobs softening and inflation yet to decisively retreat, the RBA faces a delicate balancing act in its August meeting, amid growing pressure from markets to ease rates further.&nbsp;

Employment grew by just 2,000 jobs, far below the anticipated 20,000. This prompted speculation of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Bond yields fell, while the Australian dollar weakened. 

Australia’s labour market has shown its first signs of strain in years, with the unemployment rate unexpectedly surging to a 3.5-year high in June, prompting markets to sharply raise expectations of an interest rate cut as early as August. According to data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Thursday, the jobless rate rose to 4.3 per cent, the highest level since November 2021, up from 4.1 per cent in May. Employment rose by just 2,000 jobs in June, falling well short of economists’ expectations of a 20,000 gain. The soft print weighed on the Australian dollar, which fell 0.7 per cent to $0.6480, its weakest level in over three weeks. Bond markets also responded strongly, with three-year government bond yields tumbling 10 basis points to 3.386 per cent, while interest rate futures priced in an 85 per cent chance of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in August, up from 76 per cent earlier, as reported by Reuters. Rate cut speculation gains momentum The weak jobs data adds to the case for more policy easing. The RBA has already slashed interest rates twice this year to 3.85 per cent, but held them steady at its last meeting, citing concerns about sticky inflation. “While we’re still not ringing the alarm bells, June’s slackening is another good reason for the RBA to get a wriggle on with rate cuts,” said Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research at Oxford Economics Australia, as quoted by Reuters. Cruise also noted that the labour market faces fresh headwinds, particularly from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, which he said were “weighing on business investment and prompting some firms to rethink hiring plans.” Labour market cracks widen The underlying details of the report were notably soft. Full-time jobs dropped by 38,200, partially offset by a rise in part-time roles. Hours worked also fell by 0.9 per cent, erasing gains from May. Despite the higher unemployment, the labour force participation rate edged up slightly to 67.1 per cent. While leading indicators such as job vacancies had recently shown signs of stabilising—up 2.9 per cent in the May quarter—private sector job ad data from June showed a rebound to 12-month highs, suggesting the labour market may still hold some resilience. Yet analysts remain concerned about the overall direction. “There are clear signs of deceleration emerging in the labour market. This calls into question the RBA’s decision to prioritise inflation over growth and jobs at its meeting earlier this month,” said Tony Sycamore, market analyst at IG, as quoted by Reuters. Inflation, jobs, and a tricky RBA path Despite slowing growth, the RBA remains cautious. It wants to see clear signs that inflation is falling back toward its 2–3 per cent target range. Key data on third-quarter inflation, due later this month, will be pivotal in shaping the central bank’s next move. So far, the rate cuts have not sparked a surge in consumer demand. As per Reuters, economic growth remains sluggish, with household spending subdued. With jobs softening and inflation yet to decisively retreat, the RBA faces a delicate balancing act in its August meeting, amid growing pressure from markets to ease rates further.

Australia's labour market is showing strain, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3% in June, the highest since November 2021.

Australia jobless rate hits 3.5-year high, boosting rate cut bets

Japan’s export engine is spluttering. Fresh trade data released Thursday showed a second consecutive monthly decline in exports, a direct blow to the country’s fragile economy as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs hit key sectors such as automobiles and steel. According to Japan’s Finance Ministry, exports fell 0.5 per cent year-on-year in June, missing economists’ expectations for a 0.5 per cent rise.&nbsp;As reported by Bloomberg, the drop was driven by an 11.4 per cent fall in shipments to the United States, Japan’s largest trading partner. Vehicle exports to the US dropped 27 per cent in value, and steel exports plunged 29 per cent. Despite the sharp decline in value, Bloomberg noted that the number of passenger cars exported actually rose 4.6 per cent, &nbsp;a sign that Japanese carmakers are slashing prices to remain competitive under Washington’s escalating tariffs.<h2>No deal in sight, tariffs to climb on August 1</h2>Tokyo has failed to reach a trade agreement with the United States, despite seven trips to Washington by Japan’s trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa. As reported by Bloomberg, Japan is currently facing a 25 per cent tariff on cars and car parts, a 50 per cent levy on steel, and a baseline 10 per cent tariff on all other goods, set to rise to 25 per cent on August 1 unless a deal is struck.&nbsp;President Trump has signalled that the US may enforce the tariff hike as scheduled. “I think probably we’ll live by the letter with Japan,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday, as quoted by Bloomberg. Reuters reported that Japanese negotiators are now racing against time, with Akazawa holding a call with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday morning. However, hopes for a resolution before Japan’s upper house elections on Sunday remain slim.<h2>Carmakers absorb pain — for now</h2>The sharp fall in the value of auto exports despite higher volumes reflects a deliberate strategy by Japanese automakers to absorb tariff costs. “Exports to the US, particularly autos, have fallen significantly. Carmakers are cutting costs and sacrificing their profits to absorb the impact of the tariffs,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, in an interview with Bloomberg.&nbsp;A similar assessment was offered by Koya Miyamae, senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, who told Reuters, “Japanese automakers have so far kept production levels by sacrificing margins, so the tariff impact on their production activities has been limited.”&nbsp;But the longer trade negotiations drag on, the harder it becomes to keep prices down. “The tariff impact is likely to intensify in coming months, when the tariff rate is finalised and Japanese companies begin to fully pass on costs to consumers in the US, which would hamper competitiveness of Japanese products there,” said Koki Akimoto, economist at Daiwa Institute of Research, as quoted by Reuters.<h2>Trade hit spreads beyond US</h2>The trade pain isn’t limited to the US. As per Reuters, exports to China also declined 4.7 per cent in June, although shipments to Europe managed to rise 3.6 per cent. On the import side, Japan saw a marginal 0.2 per cent rise in June, defying expectations for a 1.6 per cent drop.As a result, Japan recorded a trade surplus of ¥153.1 billion ($1.03 billion), its first in three months, but still well below market forecasts of ¥353.9 billion, according to Reuters.&nbsp;The yen averaged 144.04 against the dollar in June, about 8 per cent stronger than the same month a year ago, which further reduced the value of dollar-denominated exports when converted back into yen.<h2>Recession fears mount, BoJ likely to hold rates</h2>Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter, and the latest trade figures suggest that a second consecutive contraction in Q2 is increasingly likely, meeting the definition of a technical recession.While some economists expect modest growth, others are more pessimistic. “Given the fluctuating statements from President Trump, uncertainty is likely to persist,” said Norinchukin’s Minami, as quoted by Bloomberg. “If reciprocal tariffs are raised to 25 per cent, the impact on exports other than automobiles would also be significant, potentially putting pressure on corporate profits and weighing on winter bonuses and next year’s wage increases.”&nbsp;As per Reuters, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its monetary policy steady in the face of rising downside risks, as prolonged tariff uncertainty clouds the outlook for trade, corporate earnings, and consumer demand. With no deal in sight and tariffs climbing, Japan’s export-dependent economy is buckling under US trade pressure. Auto firms are already bleeding margins, and broader sectors may be next in line, setting up a high-stakes summer for both Tokyo and the Bank of&nbsp;Japan.&nbsp;

Shipments to the US, Japan largest trading partner, dropped 11.4%, driven by a 27% decline in vehicle exports and a 29% decrease in steel exports. Despite higher volumes, automakers are cutting prices to absorb tariffs. 

Japan’s export engine is spluttering. Fresh trade data released Thursday showed a second consecutive monthly decline in exports, a direct blow to the country’s fragile economy as US President Donald Trump’s tariffs hit key sectors such as automobiles and steel. According to Japan’s Finance Ministry, exports fell 0.5 per cent year-on-year in June, missing economists’ expectations for a 0.5 per cent rise. As reported by Bloomberg, the drop was driven by an 11.4 per cent fall in shipments to the United States, Japan’s largest trading partner. Vehicle exports to the US dropped 27 per cent in value, and steel exports plunged 29 per cent. Despite the sharp decline in value, Bloomberg noted that the number of passenger cars exported actually rose 4.6 per cent, a sign that Japanese carmakers are slashing prices to remain competitive under Washington’s escalating tariffs. No deal in sight, tariffs to climb on August 1 Tokyo has failed to reach a trade agreement with the United States, despite seven trips to Washington by Japan’s trade envoy Ryosei Akazawa. As reported by Bloomberg, Japan is currently facing a 25 per cent tariff on cars and car parts, a 50 per cent levy on steel, and a baseline 10 per cent tariff on all other goods, set to rise to 25 per cent on August 1 unless a deal is struck. President Trump has signalled that the US may enforce the tariff hike as scheduled. “I think probably we’ll live by the letter with Japan,” Trump told reporters on Wednesday, as quoted by Bloomberg. Reuters reported that Japanese negotiators are now racing against time, with Akazawa holding a call with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick on Thursday morning. However, hopes for a resolution before Japan’s upper house elections on Sunday remain slim. Carmakers absorb pain — for now The sharp fall in the value of auto exports despite higher volumes reflects a deliberate strategy by Japanese automakers to absorb tariff costs. “Exports to the US, particularly autos, have fallen significantly. Carmakers are cutting costs and sacrificing their profits to absorb the impact of the tariffs,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research Institute, in an interview with Bloomberg. A similar assessment was offered by Koya Miyamae, senior economist at SMBC Nikko Securities, who told Reuters, “Japanese automakers have so far kept production levels by sacrificing margins, so the tariff impact on their production activities has been limited.” But the longer trade negotiations drag on, the harder it becomes to keep prices down. “The tariff impact is likely to intensify in coming months, when the tariff rate is finalised and Japanese companies begin to fully pass on costs to consumers in the US, which would hamper competitiveness of Japanese products there,” said Koki Akimoto, economist at Daiwa Institute of Research, as quoted by Reuters. Trade hit spreads beyond US The trade pain isn’t limited to the US. As per Reuters, exports to China also declined 4.7 per cent in June, although shipments to Europe managed to rise 3.6 per cent. On the import side, Japan saw a marginal 0.2 per cent rise in June, defying expectations for a 1.6 per cent drop. As a result, Japan recorded a trade surplus of ¥153.1 billion ($1.03 billion), its first in three months, but still well below market forecasts of ¥353.9 billion, according to Reuters. The yen averaged 144.04 against the dollar in June, about 8 per cent stronger than the same month a year ago, which further reduced the value of dollar-denominated exports when converted back into yen. Recession fears mount, BoJ likely to hold rates Japan’s economy contracted in the first quarter, and the latest trade figures suggest that a second consecutive contraction in Q2 is increasingly likely, meeting the definition of a technical recession.While some economists expect modest growth, others are more pessimistic. “Given the fluctuating statements from President Trump, uncertainty is likely to persist,” said Norinchukin’s Minami, as quoted by Bloomberg. “If reciprocal tariffs are raised to 25 per cent, the impact on exports other than automobiles would also be significant, potentially putting pressure on corporate profits and weighing on winter bonuses and next year’s wage increases.” As per Reuters, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its monetary policy steady in the face of rising downside risks, as prolonged tariff uncertainty clouds the outlook for trade, corporate earnings, and consumer demand. With no deal in sight and tariffs climbing, Japan’s export-dependent economy is buckling under US trade pressure. Auto firms are already bleeding margins, and broader sectors may be next in line, setting up a high-stakes summer for both Tokyo and the Bank of Japan.

Japan's exports are facing a downturn, with trade data indicating a second consecutive monthly decline. Exports decreased by 0.5% year-on-year in June, falling short of economists' expectations.&nbsp;

Japan’s exports shrink as Trump tariffs hit autos, recession risks rise

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned that countries like India, China, and Brazil could face significant consequences if they persist in doing business with Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Speaking to US lawmakers on July 16, Rutte called on these nations to urge Russian President Vladimir Putin to engage in peace talks or risk being hit by severe secondary sanctions, particularly in the form of tariffs on Russian exports. Rutte’s comments come as US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose “biting” secondary tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries that continue purchasing Russian goods, including oil, if there is no peace deal within the next 50 days. This marks a new phase in the global trade war, as the US seeks to exert pressure on nations supporting Russia in the conflict.<h2>Pressure on BRICS nations to choose sides</h2>Rutte’s remarks specifically targeted India, China, and Brazil, three key members of the BRICS bloc that have maintained strong trade relations with Moscow. “If you live now in Beijing or in Delhi, or you are the president of Brazil, you might want to take a look into this, because this might hit you very hard,” Rutte said, urging these nations to rethink their positions.He further warned, “Make the phone call to Vladimir Putin and tell him that he has to get serious about peace talks, because otherwise this will slam back on Brazil, on India, and on China in a massive way.” The NATO chief’s words come at a time when these countries are critical to Moscow’s energy trade, particularly in the oil sector. India and China have been among the largest buyers of Russian crude oil since the West imposed sanctions on Russian exports after the invasion of Ukraine.Brazil, India, and China—together with South Africa—form the core of the BRICS nations, which have been seen as an alternative to Western-led institutions. Their continued trade with Russia could potentially undermine the global sanctions regime imposed by Western powers. With Moscow offering steep discounts on its oil exports, countries like India have been quick to seize the opportunity, with Russian crude now accounting for nearly 40 per cent of India’s total oil imports as of June 2025.<h2>US threatens secondary tariffs over Russian oil imports</h2>As the US ramps up its efforts to isolate Russia economically, the threat of secondary sanctions has become a key tool in its arsenal. Trump’s administration has already proposed a bill that would impose a 500 per cent tariff on goods imported from countries that continue to buy Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other exports. The proposed legislation has garnered bipartisan support, signalling a robust push to penalise those who do business with Moscow.For India, the stakes are high. Russian crude oil now accounts for more than a third of the country’s oil imports, with the value of these imports surpassing $50 billion in 2024-25. Prior to the Ukraine war, Russia accounted for less than 2 per cent of India’s oil imports. If secondary tariffs are implemented, India would likely face a significant increase in oil prices, forcing it to seek alternative suppliers in West Asia, further straining its energy security.The potential consequences of such sanctions also extend beyond oil, with broader trade implications. As the US and India continue negotiations for a trade deal, the threat of secondary tariffs could complicate efforts, potentially derailing progress on other fronts.<h2>Will the US follow through on tariffs?</h2>It remains unclear whether the US will follow through with these tariff threats, given that previous announcements have been subject to delay or revision. However, experts suggest that even the mere threat of secondary sanctions could have a chilling effect on international trade relations, particularly with countries like India and China, who are already walking a fine line between their strategic interests and the pressure from the West. As global oil markets remain volatile, with Russia continuing to offer competitive prices, the coming weeks will likely see heightened geopolitical tensions as nations grapple with the looming threat of sanctions and trade restrictions.

NATO Chief’s comments come as US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose “biting” secondary tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries that continue purchasing Russian goods, including oil, if there is no peace deal within the next 50 days.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned that countries like India, China, and Brazil could face significant consequences if they persist in doing business with Russia amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. Speaking to US lawmakers on July 16, Rutte called on these nations to urge Russian President Vladimir Putin to engage in peace talks or risk being hit by severe secondary sanctions, particularly in the form of tariffs on Russian exports. Rutte’s comments come as US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose “biting” secondary tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries that continue purchasing Russian goods, including oil, if there is no peace deal within the next 50 days. This marks a new phase in the global trade war, as the US seeks to exert pressure on nations supporting Russia in the conflict. Pressure on BRICS nations to choose sides Rutte’s remarks specifically targeted India, China, and Brazil, three key members of the BRICS bloc that have maintained strong trade relations with Moscow. “If you live now in Beijing or in Delhi, or you are the president of Brazil, you might want to take a look into this, because this might hit you very hard,” Rutte said, urging these nations to rethink their positions. He further warned, “Make the phone call to Vladimir Putin and tell him that he has to get serious about peace talks, because otherwise this will slam back on Brazil, on India, and on China in a massive way.” The NATO chief’s words come at a time when these countries are critical to Moscow’s energy trade, particularly in the oil sector. India and China have been among the largest buyers of Russian crude oil since the West imposed sanctions on Russian exports after the invasion of Ukraine. Brazil, India, and China—together with South Africa—form the core of the BRICS nations, which have been seen as an alternative to Western-led institutions. Their continued trade with Russia could potentially undermine the global sanctions regime imposed by Western powers. With Moscow offering steep discounts on its oil exports, countries like India have been quick to seize the opportunity, with Russian crude now accounting for nearly 40 per cent of India’s total oil imports as of June 2025. US threatens secondary tariffs over Russian oil imports As the US ramps up its efforts to isolate Russia economically, the threat of secondary sanctions has become a key tool in its arsenal. Trump’s administration has already proposed a bill that would impose a 500 per cent tariff on goods imported from countries that continue to buy Russian oil, gas, uranium, and other exports. The proposed legislation has garnered bipartisan support, signalling a robust push to penalise those who do business with Moscow. For India, the stakes are high. Russian crude oil now accounts for more than a third of the country’s oil imports, with the value of these imports surpassing $50 billion in 2024-25. Prior to the Ukraine war, Russia accounted for less than 2 per cent of India’s oil imports. If secondary tariffs are implemented, India would likely face a significant increase in oil prices, forcing it to seek alternative suppliers in West Asia, further straining its energy security. The potential consequences of such sanctions also extend beyond oil, with broader trade implications. As the US and India continue negotiations for a trade deal, the threat of secondary tariffs could complicate efforts, potentially derailing progress on other fronts. Will the US follow through on tariffs? It remains unclear whether the US will follow through with these tariff threats, given that previous announcements have been subject to delay or revision. However, experts suggest that even the mere threat of secondary sanctions could have a chilling effect on international trade relations, particularly with countries like India and China, who are already walking a fine line between their strategic interests and the pressure from the West. As global oil markets remain volatile, with Russia continuing to offer competitive prices, the coming weeks will likely see heightened geopolitical tensions as nations grapple with the looming threat of sanctions and trade restrictions.

NATO Chief’s comments come as US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose “biting” secondary tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries that continue purchasing Russian goods, including oil, if there is no peace deal within the next 50 days.

NATO Chief warns India, China, and Brazil of sanctions over continued trade with Russia

US President Donald Trump has said that Washington is on the brink of sealing a trade deal with India, while a breakthrough with the European Union could also be in sight. However, he offered no clear path forward on negotiations with Canada, as trade tensions continue to mount ahead of a key tariff deadline. In an interview aired on Real America’s Voice on Wednesday, Trump said, “We’re very close to India, and … we could possibly make a deal with [the] EU.” The comments come as the Trump administration races to conclude major trade negotiations ahead of August 1 — the date when broad-based US import tariffs are set to rise again.&nbsp;As per Reuters, the Trump administration has intensified its trade talks in recent weeks as it attempts to rebalance the country’s trade relationships and shrink the US trade deficit. Both Indian and European delegations are currently in Washington for fresh rounds of dialogue.<h2>“EU was brutal, now they’re being nice,” says Trump</h2>The US president took a swipe at the European Union’s trade posture in the past, saying the bloc had long imposed unfavourable terms on Washington. “The European Union has been brutal, and now they’re being very nice,” Trump remarked. “They want to make a deal, and it’ll be a lot different than the deal that we’ve had for years,” he added, as quoted by Reuters.&nbsp;EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic arrived in Washington on Wednesday for continued talks on tariffs and industrial standards. A resolution with Brussels could ease tensions that have been brewing since Trump first threatened sweeping levies on European cars and machinery earlier this year.<h2>India–US trade pact gaining momentum</h2>India’s trade delegation, led by senior commerce officials, landed in Washington on Monday to advance talks on a bilateral trade deal. The two sides have been discussing a framework that covers tariffs, market access, and technology cooperation, particularly in semiconductors and critical minerals.&nbsp;As per Reuters, Indian officials have signalled readiness to make limited concessions in areas such as medical devices and agricultural imports, while seeking tariff relief on steel, pharmaceuticals, and textiles. A deal would mark a major reset in India–US trade ties, which had faced repeated frictions over tariffs, data protection, and digital trade policies.<h2>Canada deal uncertain, countermeasures on the table</h2>Trump struck a more cautious tone when asked about trade talks with Canada. “Too soon to say,” he said, aligning with remarks from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who noted earlier on Wednesday that a deal “that works for Canadian workers” was not yet on the table.&nbsp;Canada, like the EU, is reportedly preparing counter-tariffs in case the US pushes ahead with unilateral duties. Talks have stalled over contentious issues such as dairy access, labour standards, and digital taxation.<h2>Blanket tariffs on ‘smaller countries’ under consideration</h2>In a striking remark, Trump added that he may impose blanket tariffs of 10 per cent or 15 per cent on imports from “smaller countries,” though he did not specify which nations could be affected. The proposal aligns with Trump’s broader trade doctrine of using tariff threats to pressure partners into faster concessions.&nbsp;With the August 1 deadline approaching, most US import duties are scheduled to rise unless specific trade agreements are reached. The looming hikes have pushed multiple US allies to the negotiating table, fearing a renewed wave of economic disruption.As Trump prepares to escalate tariffs across the board, trade diplomacy is entering a critical phase. A deal with India looks imminent, while Europe may follow. But for Canada and smaller nations, the path ahead remains clouded by tariffs, countermeasures, and deepening uncertainty. &nbsp;

Trump criticized the EU prior trade stance, stating they are now willing to negotiate more favorably. Indian officials are negotiating a trade pact covering tariffs and cooperation, while Canada remains cautious, with ongoing issues related to dairy, labor, and digital taxation.

US President Donald Trump has said that Washington is on the brink of sealing a trade deal with India, while a breakthrough with the European Union could also be in sight. However, he offered no clear path forward on negotiations with Canada, as trade tensions continue to mount ahead of a key tariff deadline. In an interview aired on Real America’s Voice on Wednesday, Trump said, “We’re very close to India, and … we could possibly make a deal with [the] EU.” The comments come as the Trump administration races to conclude major trade negotiations ahead of August 1 — the date when broad-based US import tariffs are set to rise again. As per Reuters, the Trump administration has intensified its trade talks in recent weeks as it attempts to rebalance the country’s trade relationships and shrink the US trade deficit. Both Indian and European delegations are currently in Washington for fresh rounds of dialogue. “EU was brutal, now they’re being nice,” says Trump The US president took a swipe at the European Union’s trade posture in the past, saying the bloc had long imposed unfavourable terms on Washington. “The European Union has been brutal, and now they’re being very nice,” Trump remarked. “They want to make a deal, and it’ll be a lot different than the deal that we’ve had for years,” he added, as quoted by Reuters. EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic arrived in Washington on Wednesday for continued talks on tariffs and industrial standards. A resolution with Brussels could ease tensions that have been brewing since Trump first threatened sweeping levies on European cars and machinery earlier this year. India–US trade pact gaining momentum India’s trade delegation, led by senior commerce officials, landed in Washington on Monday to advance talks on a bilateral trade deal. The two sides have been discussing a framework that covers tariffs, market access, and technology cooperation, particularly in semiconductors and critical minerals. As per Reuters, Indian officials have signalled readiness to make limited concessions in areas such as medical devices and agricultural imports, while seeking tariff relief on steel, pharmaceuticals, and textiles. A deal would mark a major reset in India–US trade ties, which had faced repeated frictions over tariffs, data protection, and digital trade policies. Canada deal uncertain, countermeasures on the table Trump struck a more cautious tone when asked about trade talks with Canada. “Too soon to say,” he said, aligning with remarks from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who noted earlier on Wednesday that a deal “that works for Canadian workers” was not yet on the table. Canada, like the EU, is reportedly preparing counter-tariffs in case the US pushes ahead with unilateral duties. Talks have stalled over contentious issues such as dairy access, labour standards, and digital taxation. Blanket tariffs on ‘smaller countries’ under consideration In a striking remark, Trump added that he may impose blanket tariffs of 10 per cent or 15 per cent on imports from “smaller countries,” though he did not specify which nations could be affected. The proposal aligns with Trump’s broader trade doctrine of using tariff threats to pressure partners into faster concessions. With the August 1 deadline approaching, most US import duties are scheduled to rise unless specific trade agreements are reached. The looming hikes have pushed multiple US allies to the negotiating table, fearing a renewed wave of economic disruption. As Trump prepares to escalate tariffs across the board, trade diplomacy is entering a critical phase. A deal with India looks imminent, while Europe may follow. But for Canada and smaller nations, the path ahead remains clouded by tariffs, countermeasures, and deepening uncertainty.

US President Donald Trump indicated that a trade deal with India is close and a possible breakthrough with the EU may also occur.

Trump says India trade deal near, EU talks progress, Canada in limbo

Oil prices rebounded in early Thursday trade, as investor sentiment turned optimistic following stronger-than-expected economic data from the United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers and signs of easing global trade tensions. The reversal comes after oil benchmarks posted slight losses in the previous session.&nbsp;As per Reuters, Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.39 per cent, to $68.79 a barrel at 0000 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 31 cents, or 0.47 per cent, to $66.69. Both benchmarks had slipped more than 0.2 per cent on Wednesday.<h2>US inventory draw signals strong demand</h2>A key driver behind the rebound was the sharp decline in US crude stockpiles. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week to 422.2 million barrels, significantly more than the 552,000-barrel draw forecast by analysts.&nbsp;This larger-than-expected drop suggests stronger refinery activity and tighter supply, reflecting growing domestic demand. “There is some support from the favourable margin environment associated with the refining sector. Product spreads remain relatively wide in all the regions,” said John Paisie, president of energy consultancy Stratas Advisors, as quoted by Reuters. However, the rise in gasoline and diesel inventories tempered bullish sentiment, indicating that demand for refined products remains patchy.<h2>Fed report mixed, but demand outlook steady</h2>The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book, a snapshot of current US economic conditions, indicated moderate improvement in recent weeks. But the outlook remained “neutral to slightly pessimistic”, with businesses citing rising costs due to import tariffs.&nbsp;Still, the positive activity data helped stabilise oil sentiment, particularly amid fears that prolonged rate pressures and protectionism could curb industrial fuel use.<h2>China’s crude throughput rises despite slowing economy</h2>China’s economic growth slowed in the second quarter, but not as drastically as feared, easing concerns over a deep slowdown. As per Reuters, part of the resilience was attributed to front-loaded activity to beat US tariffs. The most encouraging signal for oil markets was China’s June crude oil throughput, which rose 8.5 per cent from a year earlier, indicating firm underlying fuel demand.&nbsp;This uptick in refining points to stronger energy consumption, even as trade headwinds persist.<h2>Trump’s trade gestures boost confidence</h2>Adding to the market’s buoyancy was a slight thaw in trade tensions. As reported by Reuters, US President Donald Trump this week lifted the ban on AI chip exports to China and announced a trade deal with Indonesia. He also signalled progress on agreements with India and possibly Europe.Trump even expressed optimism over potential cooperation with Beijing on illicit drug controls, signalling a broader effort to revive dialogue with key partners. While high tariffs continue to pose risks to global demand, the easing rhetoric has temporarily soothed market nerves, offering support to crude prices, at least in the short term.&nbsp;Despite global uncertainties, oil markets found support from stronger-than-expected economic data, falling US crude stocks, and glimmers of diplomatic progress on trade. But with gasoline builds rising and tariff risks still looming, the rebound remains on a cautious footing.&nbsp;

Brent crude increased by 0.39% to $68.79, and WTI climbed 0.47% to $66.69. A notable decrease in US crude inventories, down 3.9 million barrels, indicates robust demand. 

Oil prices rebounded in early Thursday trade, as investor sentiment turned optimistic following stronger-than-expected economic data from the United States and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers and signs of easing global trade tensions. The reversal comes after oil benchmarks posted slight losses in the previous session. As per Reuters, Brent crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.39 per cent, to $68.79 a barrel at 0000 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 31 cents, or 0.47 per cent, to $66.69. Both benchmarks had slipped more than 0.2 per cent on Wednesday. US inventory draw signals strong demand A key driver behind the rebound was the sharp decline in US crude stockpiles. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude inventories fell by 3.9 million barrels last week to 422.2 million barrels, significantly more than the 552,000-barrel draw forecast by analysts. This larger-than-expected drop suggests stronger refinery activity and tighter supply, reflecting growing domestic demand. “There is some support from the favourable margin environment associated with the refining sector. Product spreads remain relatively wide in all the regions,” said John Paisie, president of energy consultancy Stratas Advisors, as quoted by Reuters. However, the rise in gasoline and diesel inventories tempered bullish sentiment, indicating that demand for refined products remains patchy. Fed report mixed, but demand outlook steady The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book, a snapshot of current US economic conditions, indicated moderate improvement in recent weeks. But the outlook remained “neutral to slightly pessimistic”, with businesses citing rising costs due to import tariffs. Still, the positive activity data helped stabilise oil sentiment, particularly amid fears that prolonged rate pressures and protectionism could curb industrial fuel use. China’s crude throughput rises despite slowing economy China’s economic growth slowed in the second quarter, but not as drastically as feared, easing concerns over a deep slowdown. As per Reuters, part of the resilience was attributed to front-loaded activity to beat US tariffs. The most encouraging signal for oil markets was China’s June crude oil throughput, which rose 8.5 per cent from a year earlier, indicating firm underlying fuel demand. This uptick in refining points to stronger energy consumption, even as trade headwinds persist. Trump’s trade gestures boost confidence Adding to the market’s buoyancy was a slight thaw in trade tensions. As reported by Reuters, US President Donald Trump this week lifted the ban on AI chip exports to China and announced a trade deal with Indonesia. He also signalled progress on agreements with India and possibly Europe. Trump even expressed optimism over potential cooperation with Beijing on illicit drug controls, signalling a broader effort to revive dialogue with key partners. While high tariffs continue to pose risks to global demand, the easing rhetoric has temporarily soothed market nerves, offering support to crude prices, at least in the short term. Despite global uncertainties, oil markets found support from stronger-than-expected economic data, falling US crude stocks, and glimmers of diplomatic progress on trade. But with gasoline builds rising and tariff risks still looming, the rebound remains on a cautious footing.

Oil prices rose early Thursday, driven by positive economic data from the US and China, along with reduced global trade tensions.

Oil rises on US demand, China data and trade hopes

US purchase prices remained unchanged in June, offering a surprise respite for consumers and businesses alike, despite ongoing concerns over the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks the prices producers receive for their goods, showed no change from May, while the annual PPI climbed by 2.3 per cent. This marks a slight slowdown from May’s 2.7 per cent increase and suggests that the immediate impact of tariff hikes may not be as pronounced as initially feared.Despite the flat reading on wholesale prices, the ripple effects of tariffs continue to show up in consumer costs. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose 2.7 per cent from a year ago, driven by higher prices for goods such as groceries, household appliances, and vehicles—sectors most directly affected by the trade policies. The discrepancy between the flat PPI and the rising CPI highlights the complex nature of tariffs, with price pressures often taking different forms before reaching consumers.Economists view the PPI as a bellwether for future consumer inflation. The report showed that the stagnation in wholesale prices was largely attributed to a decline in service costs. Notably, wholesale prices for hotel rooms dropped 4.1 per cent, and airline fares fell 2.7 per cent. These drops were offset, however, by rising costs in goods, including a 1.0 per cent surge in household furniture prices and a 0.8 per cent increase in communication equipment, both of which reflect the ongoing tariff-induced price pressures.While the flat PPI offers some relief, it also complicates the Federal Reserve’s next move. The central bank has been under pressure to reduce interest rates to stimulate economic growth, but with tariffs continuing to push up prices in certain sectors, the Fed remains cautious. The latest data on factory production, showing only a slight 0.1 per cent increase in June, suggests that uncertainty in the manufacturing sector is holding back broader economic expansion, particularly as companies remain wary of the trade climate.Looking ahead, economists are forecasting that the PPI may remain relatively stable in the near term, though the potential for higher tariffs starting August 1 could further escalate costs. These concerns are compounded by President Trump’s continued calls for the Fed to cut interest rates, despite the risks that tariff-induced inflation poses to the broader economy.The core measure of producer prices, excluding volatile food and energy costs, also showed no change in June, rising 2.6 per cent year-on-year. This reflects that while tariffs are driving up prices in certain sectors, the broader economy has yet to experience widespread inflationary pressure. Still, with the possibility of additional tariffs looming, the Fed’s decision at its July 29-30 meeting will be closely watched for signs of whether the central bank will take action to counter these emerging price pressures. As tariffs remain a key focus, the outlook for both inflation and economic growth will likely depend on how businesses and consumers adjust to the shifting price landscape in the months ahead.

Economists view the PPI as a bellwether for future consumer inflation. The report showed that the stagnation in wholesale prices was largely attributed to a decline in service costs.

US purchase prices remained unchanged in June, offering a surprise respite for consumers and businesses alike, despite ongoing concerns over the inflationary impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which tracks the prices producers receive for their goods, showed no change from May, while the annual PPI climbed by 2.3 per cent. This marks a slight slowdown from May’s 2.7 per cent increase and suggests that the immediate impact of tariff hikes may not be as pronounced as initially feared. Despite the flat reading on wholesale prices, the ripple effects of tariffs continue to show up in consumer costs. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose 2.7 per cent from a year ago, driven by higher prices for goods such as groceries, household appliances, and vehicles—sectors most directly affected by the trade policies. The discrepancy between the flat PPI and the rising CPI highlights the complex nature of tariffs, with price pressures often taking different forms before reaching consumers. Economists view the PPI as a bellwether for future consumer inflation. The report showed that the stagnation in wholesale prices was largely attributed to a decline in service costs. Notably, wholesale prices for hotel rooms dropped 4.1 per cent, and airline fares fell 2.7 per cent. These drops were offset, however, by rising costs in goods, including a 1.0 per cent surge in household furniture prices and a 0.8 per cent increase in communication equipment, both of which reflect the ongoing tariff-induced price pressures. While the flat PPI offers some relief, it also complicates the Federal Reserve’s next move. The central bank has been under pressure to reduce interest rates to stimulate economic growth, but with tariffs continuing to push up prices in certain sectors, the Fed remains cautious. The latest data on factory production, showing only a slight 0.1 per cent increase in June, suggests that uncertainty in the manufacturing sector is holding back broader economic expansion, particularly as companies remain wary of the trade climate. Looking ahead, economists are forecasting that the PPI may remain relatively stable in the near term, though the potential for higher tariffs starting August 1 could further escalate costs. These concerns are compounded by President Trump’s continued calls for the Fed to cut interest rates, despite the risks that tariff-induced inflation poses to the broader economy. The core measure of producer prices, excluding volatile food and energy costs, also showed no change in June, rising 2.6 per cent year-on-year. This reflects that while tariffs are driving up prices in certain sectors, the broader economy has yet to experience widespread inflationary pressure. Still, with the possibility of additional tariffs looming, the Fed’s decision at its July 29-30 meeting will be closely watched for signs of whether the central bank will take action to counter these emerging price pressures. As tariffs remain a key focus, the outlook for both inflation and economic growth will likely depend on how businesses and consumers adjust to the shifting price landscape in the months ahead.

Economists view the PPI as a bellwether for future consumer inflation. The report showed that the stagnation in wholesale prices was largely attributed to a decline in service costs.

Purchase prices hold steady as tariff concerns persist

The US dollar is wobbling as investors brace for what could be a historic political move, the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by US President Donald Trump. The speculation has sent tremors through global markets, casting a cloud over the Federal Reserve’s independence and the dollar’s credibility as a global safe-haven currency.<h2>Trump renews attack on Powell, keeps firing door open</h2>In a week already loaded with trade anxieties and political uncertainty, the dollar slid overnight following reports that President Trump is considering removing Powell from office before his term ends in May 2026. According to Reuters, while Trump denied the reports, he notably refused to rule out the possibility. “I don’t rule out anything, but I think it’s highly unlikely unless he has to leave for fraud,” Trump said.&nbsp;&nbsp;The remark follows Republican criticism over a $2.5 billion renovation project at the Fed’s headquarters in Washington. As per Bloomberg, Trump has been sounding out Republican lawmakers about removing Powell and reportedly received a favourable response. His ongoing frustration with Powell stems from what he calls an unnecessarily tight monetary policy. Trump has insisted that interest rates should be 1 per cent or even lower to support economic growth ahead of the 2026 elections.<h2>Investors on edge: Fed credibility, inflation risks loom</h2>The stakes are high. Removing Powell would be unprecedented and would erode the central bank’s autonomy, a key pillar of confidence in US financial markets.&nbsp;“If that comes to fruition, you’re going to see a much weaker dollar than we’re already expecting,” said Mahjabeen Zaman, head of FX research at ANZ, in a company podcast, as quoted by Reuters. “Such an event… will raise questions for Fed independence and credibility, so I think it’s only going to be an increase in volatility.” As per Reuters, Zaman added that a more dovish Fed under pressure from the White House could usher in a return of inflation and negative real yields on US Treasuries, both of which would weigh heavily on the greenback.<h2>Dollar under pressure, global currencies mixed</h2>The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, hovered at 98.384 after falling 0.3 per cent on Wednesday. The dollar clawed back 0.2 per cent to trade at 148.14 yen after a 0.6 per cent slump overnight.&nbsp;The euro was little changed, down 0.01 per cent to $1.1632, while the British pound edged 0.1 per cent lower to $1.3409.<h2>Trade tensions and political shifts weigh on markets</h2>Beyond Fed jitters, markets remain preoccupied with trade policy. As per Reuters, investors are closely watching the August 1 deadline, when higher US tariffs are set to hit several trading partners. President Trump said Wednesday that the US would “probably live by the letter” of its tariff agreement with Japan but also hinted at more deals on the horizon. He announced a trade accord with Indonesia earlier this week and teased a possible agreement with India in the near term.&nbsp;In Japan, political uncertainty ahead of this weekend’s upper house elections is fuelling further volatility. Investors are concerned that a shift in power could jeopardise the country’s already fragile fiscal position. Long-dated Japanese government bond yields have surged to record highs ahead of the vote. As Trump keeps markets guessing over Powell’s fate, the dollar faces a critical test of faith. For now, all eyes are on Washington and on a Fed chair who may be fighting to keep both his job and the central bank’s reputation intact. &nbsp;

Beyond Fed jitters, markets remain preoccupied with trade policy. As per Reuters, investors are closely watching the August 1 deadline, when higher US tariffs are set to hit several trading partners.

The US dollar is wobbling as investors brace for what could be a historic political move, the potential dismissal of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell by US President Donald Trump. The speculation has sent tremors through global markets, casting a cloud over the Federal Reserve’s independence and the dollar’s credibility as a global safe-haven currency. Trump renews attack on Powell, keeps firing door open In a week already loaded with trade anxieties and political uncertainty, the dollar slid overnight following reports that President Trump is considering removing Powell from office before his term ends in May 2026. According to Reuters, while Trump denied the reports, he notably refused to rule out the possibility. “I don’t rule out anything, but I think it’s highly unlikely unless he has to leave for fraud,” Trump said. The remark follows Republican criticism over a $2.5 billion renovation project at the Fed’s headquarters in Washington. As per Bloomberg, Trump has been sounding out Republican lawmakers about removing Powell and reportedly received a favourable response. His ongoing frustration with Powell stems from what he calls an unnecessarily tight monetary policy. Trump has insisted that interest rates should be 1 per cent or even lower to support economic growth ahead of the 2026 elections. Investors on edge: Fed credibility, inflation risks loom The stakes are high. Removing Powell would be unprecedented and would erode the central bank’s autonomy, a key pillar of confidence in US financial markets. “If that comes to fruition, you’re going to see a much weaker dollar than we’re already expecting,” said Mahjabeen Zaman, head of FX research at ANZ, in a company podcast, as quoted by Reuters. “Such an event… will raise questions for Fed independence and credibility, so I think it’s only going to be an increase in volatility.” As per Reuters, Zaman added that a more dovish Fed under pressure from the White House could usher in a return of inflation and negative real yields on US Treasuries, both of which would weigh heavily on the greenback. Dollar under pressure, global currencies mixed The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against six major peers, hovered at 98.384 after falling 0.3 per cent on Wednesday. The dollar clawed back 0.2 per cent to trade at 148.14 yen after a 0.6 per cent slump overnight. The euro was little changed, down 0.01 per cent to $1.1632, while the British pound edged 0.1 per cent lower to $1.3409. Trade tensions and political shifts weigh on markets Beyond Fed jitters, markets remain preoccupied with trade policy. As per Reuters, investors are closely watching the August 1 deadline, when higher US tariffs are set to hit several trading partners. President Trump said Wednesday that the US would “probably live by the letter” of its tariff agreement with Japan but also hinted at more deals on the horizon. He announced a trade accord with Indonesia earlier this week and teased a possible agreement with India in the near term. In Japan, political uncertainty ahead of this weekend’s upper house elections is fuelling further volatility. Investors are concerned that a shift in power could jeopardise the country’s already fragile fiscal position. Long-dated Japanese government bond yields have surged to record highs ahead of the vote. As Trump keeps markets guessing over Powell’s fate, the dollar faces a critical test of faith. For now, all eyes are on Washington and on a Fed chair who may be fighting to keep both his job and the central bank’s reputation intact.

The US dollar is unstable as investors anticipate President Trump may dismiss Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Dollar under strain as Trump’s threat to fire Fed chief shakes market confidence

Bitcoin saw a sharp decline on July 15, falling below the $117,000 mark after a procedural vote to advance key cryptocurrency bills was blocked in the House of Representatives. The price of Bitcoin dropped 2.8 per cent to $116,516, reversing earlier gains and marking a pullback from the day’s high of $120,481.86, according to Coin Metrics.The sharp decline came after a pivotal procedural vote, where 13 Republican lawmakers joined Democrats to block the motion, voting 196-223 against advancing the legislation. The bills, which had been anticipated to bring much-needed regulatory clarity to the crypto industry, were viewed as a potential catalyst for the continued rise in institutional investments, particularly in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).Stocks linked to the cryptocurrency sector also saw declines. Riot Platforms and Mara Holdings, both major Bitcoin miners, closed down 3.3 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively. Similarly, Coinbase, a major cryptocurrency exchange, slid 1.5 per cent in late trading hours. These declines followed the failed procedural vote, which delayed the progress of crucial crypto-related legislation.<h2>Trump seeks to revive crypto bills after setback</h2>However, the fate of the legislation took a sudden turn later on July 15 evening when former President Donald Trump intervened. In a post on Truth Social, Trump announced that a group of 11 Republican lawmakers who had originally voted to block the bills had changed their stance following a meeting at the White House. According to Trump, the lawmakers agreed to vote in favour of advancing the crypto bills in a vote scheduled for July 16.“I am in the Oval Office with 11 of the 12 congressmen/women necessary to pass the GENIUS Act, and, after a short discussion, they have all agreed to vote tomorrow morning in favour of the rule,” Trump wrote.The bills in question include the GENIUS Act, which seeks to regulate stablecoins, and the CLARITY Act, which would clarify whether digital assets should be classified as securities or commodities. A third bill aims to block the Federal Reserve from creating a central bank digital currency.House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed hope that the legislation could still move forward after additional discussions with members. “We are continuing to work on this issue and plan to vote on it again shortly,” he said after the vote.<h2>Crypto bill blockade undermines optimism</h2>The procedural block in the House was a major setback for the crypto industry, which had viewed Crypto Week as a key opportunity for Congress to pass legislation providing much-needed clarity and legitimacy. The failure of the vote marked an unexpected challenge for the crypto bills, which had previously seemed poised for swift passage. It also highlighted a rare instance where House Republicans resisted Trump’s influence, at least temporarily.The defeat was especially significant because it took place during a week when optimism had been building in the market, spurred by expectations that Congress might soon pass crypto-related legislation. Institutional investors had been piling into Bitcoin, pushing its price to all-time highs. Many saw the legislation as a potential catalyst for further growth in the digital asset space.<h2>Bitcoin bounces back after initial losses</h2>Despite the setback in Washington, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies showed signs of recovery early Wednesday. Bitcoin rebounded more than 1 per cent over the past 24 hours to $118,809, according to CoinDesk data, after briefly dropping following the procedural vote.This recovery came after Trump’s statement that the legislation, which includes the GENIUS Act and other crypto regulatory measures, could be passed as soon as July 16. The quick reversal in Bitcoin’s price underscores the market’s sensitivity to developments in US cryptocurrency policy and investor confidence in future regulatory clarity.&nbsp;&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

The sharp decline came after a pivotal procedural vote, where 13 Republican lawmakers joined Democrats to block the motion, voting 196-223 against advancing the legislation. 

Bitcoin saw a sharp decline on July 15, falling below the $117,000 mark after a procedural vote to advance key cryptocurrency bills was blocked in the House of Representatives. The price of Bitcoin dropped 2.8 per cent to $116,516, reversing earlier gains and marking a pullback from the day’s high of $120,481.86, according to Coin Metrics. The sharp decline came after a pivotal procedural vote, where 13 Republican lawmakers joined Democrats to block the motion, voting 196-223 against advancing the legislation. The bills, which had been anticipated to bring much-needed regulatory clarity to the crypto industry, were viewed as a potential catalyst for the continued rise in institutional investments, particularly in Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Stocks linked to the cryptocurrency sector also saw declines. Riot Platforms and Mara Holdings, both major Bitcoin miners, closed down 3.3 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively. Similarly, Coinbase, a major cryptocurrency exchange, slid 1.5 per cent in late trading hours. These declines followed the failed procedural vote, which delayed the progress of crucial crypto-related legislation. Trump seeks to revive crypto bills after setback However, the fate of the legislation took a sudden turn later on July 15 evening when former President Donald Trump intervened. In a post on Truth Social, Trump announced that a group of 11 Republican lawmakers who had originally voted to block the bills had changed their stance following a meeting at the White House. According to Trump, the lawmakers agreed to vote in favour of advancing the crypto bills in a vote scheduled for July 16. “I am in the Oval Office with 11 of the 12 congressmen/women necessary to pass the GENIUS Act, and, after a short discussion, they have all agreed to vote tomorrow morning in favour of the rule,” Trump wrote. The bills in question include the GENIUS Act, which seeks to regulate stablecoins, and the CLARITY Act, which would clarify whether digital assets should be classified as securities or commodities. A third bill aims to block the Federal Reserve from creating a central bank digital currency. House Speaker Mike Johnson expressed hope that the legislation could still move forward after additional discussions with members. “We are continuing to work on this issue and plan to vote on it again shortly,” he said after the vote. Crypto bill blockade undermines optimism The procedural block in the House was a major setback for the crypto industry, which had viewed Crypto Week as a key opportunity for Congress to pass legislation providing much-needed clarity and legitimacy. The failure of the vote marked an unexpected challenge for the crypto bills, which had previously seemed poised for swift passage. It also highlighted a rare instance where House Republicans resisted Trump’s influence, at least temporarily. The defeat was especially significant because it took place during a week when optimism had been building in the market, spurred by expectations that Congress might soon pass crypto-related legislation. Institutional investors had been piling into Bitcoin, pushing its price to all-time highs. Many saw the legislation as a potential catalyst for further growth in the digital asset space. Bitcoin bounces back after initial losses Despite the setback in Washington, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies showed signs of recovery early Wednesday. Bitcoin rebounded more than 1 per cent over the past 24 hours to $118,809, according to CoinDesk data, after briefly dropping following the procedural vote. This recovery came after Trump’s statement that the legislation, which includes the GENIUS Act and other crypto regulatory measures, could be passed as soon as July 16. The quick reversal in Bitcoin’s price underscores the market’s sensitivity to developments in US cryptocurrency policy and investor confidence in future regulatory clarity. (With inputs from agencies)

The sharp decline came after a pivotal procedural vote, where 13 Republican lawmakers joined Democrats to block the motion, voting 196-223 against advancing the legislation.&nbsp;

Crypto bill setback in House of Representatives delays legislation, sends Bitcoin price tumbling

India has achieved a major climate milestone, reaching 50.1 per cent of its installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources as of June 30, 2025, surpassing its 2030 target set under the Paris Agreement five years ahead of schedule. The country’s installed capacity now stands at 485 gigawatts (GW), with over half of that, approximately 242.8 GW, coming from renewable sources, including solar, wind, and nuclear energy, as well as hydropower.&nbsp;The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) credited the sharp increase in non-fossil fuel capacity to significant investments in solar and wind energy. India had committed to reaching 40 per cent non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 during the Paris Agreement and later raised that target to 50 per cent in 2022. The current push has been especially driven by solar energy, which now makes up the largest share of India’s renewable energy capacity.&nbsp;<h2>Renewables surge, but coal still dominates power generation</h2>&nbsp;While non-fossil fuel sources now account for half of India’s electricity capacity, coal and other thermal power plants continue to dominate actual power generation. In 2024, India’s electricity production reached 2,030 terawatt-hours (TWh), with coal accounting for a record 1,517.9 TWh, despite renewables making up 240.5 TWh. This disparity reflects the intermittent nature of solar and wind power, which cannot consistently meet the country’s peak energy demand.&nbsp;As renewable energy generation grows, India still relies heavily on thermal power for baseload support. For instance, even though non-fossil fuels account for 50 per cent of the installed capacity, thermal plants continue to generate over 70 per cent of the electricity, highlighting the ongoing need for stable, round-the-clock power. India's grid faces challenges in integrating renewable sources without adequate storage capacity, a gap that has been exacerbated by rapid growth in solar and wind power installations without corresponding investments in energy storage infrastructure.&nbsp;<h2>Challenges and future steps</h2>&nbsp;India’s rapid shift towards renewable energy has highlighted critical gaps in storage capacity, which is essential for stabilising the grid when renewable generation is low or during periods of high demand. As of the end of 2024, India’s storage capacity stood at just 4.75 GW from pumped storage and 110 MW from battery storage, far below the requirements needed to handle the growing share of renewables.&nbsp;To address this, the Indian government has started taking proactive steps, including policy initiatives to encourage the co-location of storage systems with solar projects. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has also been working to ensure that future renewable energy projects include storage, and the government has expanded viability gap funding (VGF) to support the development of battery storage. However, the execution of these projects has been slow, with challenges such as high upfront costs, import duties, and supply chain constraints—particularly China’s control over the global battery market—hindering progress.&nbsp;The government is also focusing on rooftop solar installations to decentralise energy generation and improve grid stability. The PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana has already added 3 GW of rooftop solar capacity, with plans to add 27 GW by March 2027. Additionally, hybrid tenders that combine solar, wind, and storage are gaining traction, as they offer a more diversified and reliable energy generation profile.&nbsp;India’s renewable energy push has also brought several key companies into the spotlight. Waaree Energies, NTPC Green, Inox, and Adani Green Energy are among the top players benefiting from the surge in solar and wind installations. Waaree Energies, a major solar PV module manufacturer, has reported substantial growth in sales, while NTPC Green has made significant investments in both solar and wind projects, commissioning 1.6 GW of renewable energy projects in 2024 alone.&nbsp;However, the renewable energy sector still faces hurdles, such as the lack of power purchase agreements (PPAs) for older projects and grid access issues due to underinvestment in transmission infrastructure. The government is working to resolve these challenges, but timely execution remains crucial to ensure that India stays on track to meet its 2030 renewable energy targets.

India's installed capacity now stands at 485 gigawatts (GW), with over half of that, approximately 242.8 GW, coming from renewable sources, including solar, wind, and nuclear energy, as well as hydropower.

India has achieved a major climate milestone, reaching 50.1 per cent of its installed electricity capacity from non-fossil fuel sources as of June 30, 2025, surpassing its 2030 target set under the Paris Agreement five years ahead of schedule. The country’s installed capacity now stands at 485 gigawatts (GW), with over half of that, approximately 242.8 GW, coming from renewable sources, including solar, wind, and nuclear energy, as well as hydropower. The Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) credited the sharp increase in non-fossil fuel capacity to significant investments in solar and wind energy. India had committed to reaching 40 per cent non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030 during the Paris Agreement and later raised that target to 50 per cent in 2022. The current push has been especially driven by solar energy, which now makes up the largest share of India’s renewable energy capacity. Renewables surge, but coal still dominates power generation While non-fossil fuel sources now account for half of India’s electricity capacity, coal and other thermal power plants continue to dominate actual power generation. In 2024, India’s electricity production reached 2,030 terawatt-hours (TWh), with coal accounting for a record 1,517.9 TWh, despite renewables making up 240.5 TWh. This disparity reflects the intermittent nature of solar and wind power, which cannot consistently meet the country’s peak energy demand. As renewable energy generation grows, India still relies heavily on thermal power for baseload support. For instance, even though non-fossil fuels account for 50 per cent of the installed capacity, thermal plants continue to generate over 70 per cent of the electricity, highlighting the ongoing need for stable, round-the-clock power. India's grid faces challenges in integrating renewable sources without adequate storage capacity, a gap that has been exacerbated by rapid growth in solar and wind power installations without corresponding investments in energy storage infrastructure. Challenges and future steps India’s rapid shift towards renewable energy has highlighted critical gaps in storage capacity, which is essential for stabilising the grid when renewable generation is low or during periods of high demand. As of the end of 2024, India’s storage capacity stood at just 4.75 GW from pumped storage and 110 MW from battery storage, far below the requirements needed to handle the growing share of renewables. To address this, the Indian government has started taking proactive steps, including policy initiatives to encourage the co-location of storage systems with solar projects. The Central Electricity Authority (CEA) has also been working to ensure that future renewable energy projects include storage, and the government has expanded viability gap funding (VGF) to support the development of battery storage. However, the execution of these projects has been slow, with challenges such as high upfront costs, import duties, and supply chain constraints—particularly China’s control over the global battery market—hindering progress. The government is also focusing on rooftop solar installations to decentralise energy generation and improve grid stability. The PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana has already added 3 GW of rooftop solar capacity, with plans to add 27 GW by March 2027. Additionally, hybrid tenders that combine solar, wind, and storage are gaining traction, as they offer a more diversified and reliable energy generation profile. India’s renewable energy push has also brought several key companies into the spotlight. Waaree Energies, NTPC Green, Inox, and Adani Green Energy are among the top players benefiting from the surge in solar and wind installations. Waaree Energies, a major solar PV module manufacturer, has reported substantial growth in sales, while NTPC Green has made significant investments in both solar and wind projects, commissioning 1.6 GW of renewable energy projects in 2024 alone. However, the renewable energy sector still faces hurdles, such as the lack of power purchase agreements (PPAs) for older projects and grid access issues due to underinvestment in transmission infrastructure. The government is working to resolve these challenges, but timely execution remains crucial to ensure that India stays on track to meet its 2030 renewable energy targets.

India's installed capacity now stands at 485 gigawatts (GW), with over half of that, approximately 242.8 GW, coming from renewable sources, including solar, wind, and nuclear energy, as well as hydropower.

India reaches 50% non-fossil fuel power capacity milestone, five years ahead of target

The story of Jake Loosararian is inspirational. The founder of an AI robotics startup in the US worked for 100 hours every week to run his business. He even almost went bankrupt to keep his business afloat. A decade later, his company is now valued at $1.25 billion.&nbsp;&nbsp;Jake Loosararian is the founder and chief executive officer of Gecko Robotics, a US-based company, which he started in 2013, after his graduation. Jake Loosararian completed his graduation in electronics from Grove City College, Pennsylvania. Against the advice of his family and teachers at college, he decided&nbsp;to launch his startup without any external funding. Even after three years, his startup didn't take off, and he had to seek help from his friends as he battled&nbsp;financial problems.&nbsp;He told CNBC that he was down to his last dollar.&nbsp;"My best friend was living in a crummy basement apartment. There was a section behind his couch, and I was like, 'Can I take that?' I laid the mattress down. That was where I slept for, like, two and a half years," he said.&nbsp;Gecko Robotics tried making AI-powered robots. His firm was building prototypes that were designed to inspect power plant boilers. They often malfunctioned. Most of the time, he worked in horrible conditions. He kept improving his products. He often sought customer feedback, which encouraged him. "I needed to feel I wasn’t just fooling myself," he said.&nbsp;His big breakthrough came when his company was accepted into Silicon Valley's prestigious Y Combinator accelerator in 2016, which provided him with investors. His firm now designs advanced AI-powered robots that can perform a host of tasks, including climbing walls, flying, and swimming underwater. These machines can inspect power plants, bridges, and dams.&nbsp;His firm recently raised $125 million, which elevated its valuation to $1.25 billion.

The story of Jake Loosararian is inspirational. The founder of an AI robotics startup in the US worked for 100 hours every week to run his business. He even almost went bankrupt to keep his business afloat. A decade later, his company is now valued at $1.25 billion. 

The story of Jake Loosararian is inspirational. The founder of an AI robotics startup in the US worked for 100 hours every week to run his business. He even almost went bankrupt to keep his business afloat. A decade later, his company is now valued at $1.25 billion. Jake Loosararian is the founder and chief executive officer of Gecko Robotics, a US-based company, which he started in 2013, after his graduation. Jake Loosararian completed his graduation in electronics from Grove City College, Pennsylvania. Against the advice of his family and teachers at college, he decided to launch his startup without any external funding. Even after three years, his startup didn't take off, and he had to seek help from his friends as he battled financial problems. He told CNBC that he was down to his last dollar. "My best friend was living in a crummy basement apartment. There was a section behind his couch, and I was like, 'Can I take that?' I laid the mattress down. That was where I slept for, like, two and a half years," he said. Gecko Robotics tried making AI-powered robots. His firm was building prototypes that were designed to inspect power plant boilers. They often malfunctioned. Most of the time, he worked in horrible conditions. He kept improving his products. He often sought customer feedback, which encouraged him. "I needed to feel I wasn’t just fooling myself," he said. His big breakthrough came when his company was accepted into Silicon Valley's prestigious Y Combinator accelerator in 2016, which provided him with investors. His firm now designs advanced AI-powered robots that can perform a host of tasks, including climbing walls, flying, and swimming underwater. These machines can inspect power plants, bridges, and dams. His firm recently raised $125 million, which elevated its valuation to $1.25 billion.

Jake Loosararian success story: His firm recently raised $125 million, which elevated his valuation to $1.25 billion.

Meet Jake Loosararian, who built $1.25 billion firm battling poverty: 'Was down to last dollar'

The UK’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.6 per cent in June 2025, up from 3.4 per cent in May, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This increase was primarily driven by higher motor fuel costs and rising food price inflation, which continued its upward trend for the third consecutive month. Economists had predicted a more modest rise, with many forecasting inflation to remain at 3.4 per cent. The unexpected jump is seen as a result of fuel prices, which didn’t fall as significantly this year compared to the same time in 2024. Additionally, food price inflation reached its highest annual rate since February 2024, although it remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2023.<h2>Core inflation shows steady rise</h2>Excluding volatile items like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, core inflation also saw a slight increase. The core consumer prices index (CPI), which focuses on these more stable categories, rose by 3.7 per cent in the year to June, up from 3.5 per cent in May. The rise in core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures are still evident in the UK economy, despite recent efforts by the Bank of England to control inflation through interest rate hikes.The transport sector, particularly motor fuels, was the largest contributor to the increase in both the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH). On the other hand, housing costs, including owner occupiers' housing costs, provided a downward push in CPIH, partially offsetting the rise in transport costs.<h2>Bank of England's interest rate strategy faces pressure</h2>In response to the rising inflation, attention is now turning to the Bank of England (BoE) and its interest rate policy. Despite the unexpected inflationary increase, the BoE is still widely expected to reduce interest rates later this summer. This comes after the BoE had already cut rates from 5.25 per cent to 4.25 per cent earlier this year.Analysts believe that the BoE is likely to proceed with further gradual rate cuts in the coming months, possibly starting in August, to support an economy showing signs of stagnation. The UK’s recent economic contraction in May added pressure on the BoE, with experts warning that a sluggish economy might not respond well to further rate hikes. The Bank has also noted that global uncertainties, particularly the introduction of tariffs by the US, could complicate the inflationary outlook.Finance Minister Rachel Reeves acknowledged that while inflation remains a concern, the government is working to alleviate the cost of living pressures faced by households. However, opposition figures criticised the government for its handling of inflation, with some warning that it could lead to further financial hardship for families across the country.

Excluding volatile items like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, core inflation also saw a slight increase. The core consumer prices index, which focuses on these more stable categories, rose by 3.7 per cent in the year to June, up from 3.5 per cent in May. 

The UK’s annual inflation rate rose to 3.6 per cent in June 2025, up from 3.4 per cent in May, according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). This increase was primarily driven by higher motor fuel costs and rising food price inflation, which continued its upward trend for the third consecutive month. Economists had predicted a more modest rise, with many forecasting inflation to remain at 3.4 per cent. The unexpected jump is seen as a result of fuel prices, which didn’t fall as significantly this year compared to the same time in 2024. Additionally, food price inflation reached its highest annual rate since February 2024, although it remains well below the peak levels seen in early 2023. Core inflation shows steady rise Excluding volatile items like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, core inflation also saw a slight increase. The core consumer prices index (CPI), which focuses on these more stable categories, rose by 3.7 per cent in the year to June, up from 3.5 per cent in May. The rise in core inflation suggests that underlying price pressures are still evident in the UK economy, despite recent efforts by the Bank of England to control inflation through interest rate hikes. The transport sector, particularly motor fuels, was the largest contributor to the increase in both the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and the Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers' housing costs (CPIH). On the other hand, housing costs, including owner occupiers' housing costs, provided a downward push in CPIH, partially offsetting the rise in transport costs. Bank of England's interest rate strategy faces pressure In response to the rising inflation, attention is now turning to the Bank of England (BoE) and its interest rate policy. Despite the unexpected inflationary increase, the BoE is still widely expected to reduce interest rates later this summer. This comes after the BoE had already cut rates from 5.25 per cent to 4.25 per cent earlier this year. Analysts believe that the BoE is likely to proceed with further gradual rate cuts in the coming months, possibly starting in August, to support an economy showing signs of stagnation. The UK’s recent economic contraction in May added pressure on the BoE, with experts warning that a sluggish economy might not respond well to further rate hikes. The Bank has also noted that global uncertainties, particularly the introduction of tariffs by the US, could complicate the inflationary outlook. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves acknowledged that while inflation remains a concern, the government is working to alleviate the cost of living pressures faced by households. However, opposition figures criticised the government for its handling of inflation, with some warning that it could lead to further financial hardship for families across the country.

Excluding volatile items like food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco, core inflation also saw a slight increase. The core consumer prices index, which focuses on these more stable categories, rose by 3.7 per cent in the year to June, up from 3.5 per cent in May.&nbsp;

UK inflation surges to 3.6% in June, exceeding expectations

India’s exports grew by 6 per cent in the first quarter of the 2025-26 fiscal year, reaching an estimated $210.31 billion, compared to $198.52 billion during the same period last year, driven largely by robust services export growth. Despite global economic uncertainties and challenges in merchandise exports, services exports surged by 10.93 per cent, helping to reduce India's overall trade deficit by 9.4 per cent to $20.3 billion in Q1.The export of services was the standout performer in this quarter, with a notable increase of 10.93 per cent, taking the total services exports to $98.13 billion in April-June 2025, up from $88.46 billion during the same period last year. Key sectors such as IT, business services, and software exports contributed significantly to this growth. Electronic goods, which saw a staggering 46.93 per cent rise in exports, were another highlight, bringing in $4.15 billion in June 2025 alone.In contrast, merchandise exports showed more modest gains. While total merchandise exports for April-June 2025 grew by just 1.92 per cent year-on-year to $112.17 billion, a large portion of this growth came from non-petroleum exports, which rose by 5.97 per cent to $94.77 billion. Key sectors driving merchandise growth included drugs and pharmaceuticals, marine products, and meat, dairy &amp; poultry exports.<h2>Trade deficit narrows as imports stabilise</h2>India’s trade deficit for June 2025 narrowed to $18.78 billion, marking its lowest level in four months. Imports for June 2025 stood at $53.92 billion, a 3.71 per cent decline from the previous year, primarily due to decreased imports of crude oil and gold. Importers also reduced purchases of gold by 25.73 per cent during the quarter, while crude oil imports dropped 8.37 per cent, reflecting lower global oil prices.Although merchandise imports rose by 4.38 per cent to $230.62 billion in Q1 2025, services imports saw a more moderate rise of 4.9 per cent. The significant decline in the imports of high-value items like gold and petroleum contributed to narrowing the trade deficit, showcasing a balance between robust export performance and controlled import growth.<h2>Sector-specific growth and trade partners</h2>India’s export performance in Q1 was bolstered by electronic goods, with exports growing by 47.1 per cent to $12.4 billion. Other sectors, such as marine products, tea, and tobacco exports, also posted impressive growth rates, underscoring the country’s diversified export base.The United States remained India’s largest export destination, accounting for $25.5 billion in exports, a 22.1 per cent increase. Other top destinations included the UAE, the Netherlands, China, and the UK. On the imports front, China continued to be the largest source of imports, growing by 16 per cent to $29.7 billion in Q1.Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal expressed confidence that India’s export growth would continue throughout the year, especially with services exports poised for further expansion. However, he emphasised the importance of maintaining a sector-focused strategy, especially in services, to capitalise on India’s growing digital capabilities and skilled workforce.

The export of services was the standout performer in this quarter, with the total services exports reaching $98.13 billion in April-June 2025, up from $88.46 billion during the same period last year. Key sectors like IT, business services, and software exports contributed to this growth.

India’s exports grew by 6 per cent in the first quarter of the 2025-26 fiscal year, reaching an estimated $210.31 billion, compared to $198.52 billion during the same period last year, driven largely by robust services export growth. Despite global economic uncertainties and challenges in merchandise exports, services exports surged by 10.93 per cent, helping to reduce India's overall trade deficit by 9.4 per cent to $20.3 billion in Q1. The export of services was the standout performer in this quarter, with a notable increase of 10.93 per cent, taking the total services exports to $98.13 billion in April-June 2025, up from $88.46 billion during the same period last year. Key sectors such as IT, business services, and software exports contributed significantly to this growth. Electronic goods, which saw a staggering 46.93 per cent rise in exports, were another highlight, bringing in $4.15 billion in June 2025 alone. In contrast, merchandise exports showed more modest gains. While total merchandise exports for April-June 2025 grew by just 1.92 per cent year-on-year to $112.17 billion, a large portion of this growth came from non-petroleum exports, which rose by 5.97 per cent to $94.77 billion. Key sectors driving merchandise growth included drugs and pharmaceuticals, marine products, and meat, dairy & poultry exports. Trade deficit narrows as imports stabilise India’s trade deficit for June 2025 narrowed to $18.78 billion, marking its lowest level in four months. Imports for June 2025 stood at $53.92 billion, a 3.71 per cent decline from the previous year, primarily due to decreased imports of crude oil and gold. Importers also reduced purchases of gold by 25.73 per cent during the quarter, while crude oil imports dropped 8.37 per cent, reflecting lower global oil prices. Although merchandise imports rose by 4.38 per cent to $230.62 billion in Q1 2025, services imports saw a more moderate rise of 4.9 per cent. The significant decline in the imports of high-value items like gold and petroleum contributed to narrowing the trade deficit, showcasing a balance between robust export performance and controlled import growth. Sector-specific growth and trade partners India’s export performance in Q1 was bolstered by electronic goods, with exports growing by 47.1 per cent to $12.4 billion. Other sectors, such as marine products, tea, and tobacco exports, also posted impressive growth rates, underscoring the country’s diversified export base. The United States remained India’s largest export destination, accounting for $25.5 billion in exports, a 22.1 per cent increase. Other top destinations included the UAE, the Netherlands, China, and the UK. On the imports front, China continued to be the largest source of imports, growing by 16 per cent to $29.7 billion in Q1. Commerce Secretary Sunil Barthwal expressed confidence that India’s export growth would continue throughout the year, especially with services exports poised for further expansion. However, he emphasised the importance of maintaining a sector-focused strategy, especially in services, to capitalise on India’s growing digital capabilities and skilled workforce.

The export of services was the standout performer in this quarter, with the total services exports reaching $98.13 billion in April-June 2025, up from $88.46 billion during the same period last year. Key sectors like IT, business services, and software exports contributed to this growth.

India’s exports show modest growth in Q1; trade deficit narrows

The US economy is showing signs of strain as the effects of President Donald Trump’s trade policies begin to make their mark. After months of uncertainty surrounding the administration’s sweeping tariffs, key consumer goods are starting to feel the pressure of higher import costs. As the tariff-induced price hikes gradually filter down to everyday products, economists are raising concerns about the long-term impact on household budgets and economic growth. While the broader economy has remained resilient, the growing costs of items like appliances, clothing, and electronics have pushed inflation to its highest level in four months, leading many to question how much longer the US can power through these pressures.Inflation in the United States spiked in June, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising by 0.3 per cent, marking the largest monthly gain since January, according to the data released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 15. This pushed the annual inflation rate to 2.7 per cent, up from 2.4 per cent in May, in line with economists’ expectations. However, the most important thing to be noted here is that the increase in prices is being largely driven by goods exposed to tariffs, including appliances, clothing, and electronics, signalling a potential for sustained inflationary pressures.<h2>Tariff-driven inflation gains momentum</h2>The most recent CPI data provides a clear indication that tariffs imposed by President Trump’s administration are beginning to reach the consumers. While inflation had remained subdued in earlier months due to inventory stockpiles and declining energy prices, economists now warn that the full effects of these tariffs, especially on imports from China, are becoming increasingly visible in consumer goods prices.In particular, the costs for goods like appliances, sporting goods, toys, and apparel have risen sharply. Prices for appliances jumped by 1.9 per cent in June, marking the largest monthly increase since the pandemic’s peak in 2020. Similarly, toys saw a 1.4 per cent increase in June, continuing a trend from earlier in the year. The tariffs on steel and aluminium, which now apply to a wide array of derivative products such as washing machines, refrigerators, and dryers, have contributed significantly to these price hikes.Experts note that these increases are likely just the beginning, and the full impact of these tariffs may not be felt immediately due to businesses’ prior stockpiling of goods, but it will gradually show up on store shelves. Economists predict that the prices of imported goods will continue to rise throughout the year, potentially keeping overall inflation elevated.<h2>Labour market and consumer spending</h2>Despite the uptick in inflation, the broader economy has shown resilience. Employment data still points to job creation, and consumer spending remains relatively strong. On July 15, several of the largest US banks reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, bolstered by steady demand for consumer loans and credit card spending. However, concerns are growing that inflation may start to affect consumer behaviour, especially for middle-income households.One concerning trend is the slowing growth in industries heavily reliant on immigrant labour, which could be linked to the ongoing immigration crackdown. A shrinking foreign-born labour force since March has contributed to slower job growth in sectors such as construction and hospitality. This trend has made it harder for businesses to fill low-wage positions, which could begin to weigh on overall employment figures in the coming months.In addition, some analysts are observing signs of spending weakness among lower-income Americans, with major banks such as JPMorgan noting declines in consumer confidence in certain income groups. However, spending patterns show that wealthier Americans are still thriving, propping up overall consumer demand and helping to cushion the economy against more significant downturns.The Yale Budget Lab recently estimated that tariffs have increased the average effective tariff rate on imported goods to 20.6 per cent, the highest level since 1910. While these tariffs are not immediately causing widespread price increases, Americans could face an effective $2,800 hit in annual household income due to higher costs on goods such as clothing, electronics, and furniture.<h2>Federal Reserve's dilemma</h2>The growing inflationary pressures come at a time when the Federal Reserve is caught in a delicate balancing act between fighting inflation and supporting economic growth. The June CPI data adds another layer of complexity to the Fed’s decision-making, especially as the central bank contemplates whether to continue interest rate cuts.While the core inflation—which excludes food and energy—rose 2.9 per cent over the past year, the increase was less severe than expected, suggesting that services inflation remains relatively subdued. Housing-related costs, such as rent and home prices, have cooled off, and prices for airfares and hotel rates were weak, possibly reflecting a pullback in discretionary spending. These factors could mitigate some of the pressures from the rising prices of goods.Some economists have noted that even though the CPI was in line with forecasts, the rise in inflation in June suggests that the Fed may pause its interest rate cuts. However, other experts suggested that the Fed may need to remain cautious, noting that there is strain on the middle-class consumer and calling for some relief to support household spending.As the Federal Reserve mulls over its next steps, some expect a rate cut later this year to help relieve financial pressures on middle-income families. But this raises the question of how much longer the US economy can maintain its growth trajectory under the weight of rising costs.<h2>Uncertainty and economic resilience</h2>With a number of economic inputs seeing price hikes and wage growth slowing, the outlook for the second half of the year remains uncertain. The stock market continues to perform well, with major indices hovering near all-time highs, but Treasury yields have risen sharply, with the 30-year bond yield surpassing 5 per cent for the first time since May. This signals growing concerns about long-term economic stability.The full impact of Trump’s trade war and tariff policies will likely take a few more months to fully materialise, but analysts caution that price increases could become a persistent feature in the economy. It’s clear that while the US economy has shown resilience so far, a prolonged period of rising inflation could become a significant challenge for policymakers, businesses, and consumers alike.

While the broader US economy has remained resilient, the growing costs of items like appliances, clothing, and electronics have pushed inflation to its highest level in four months, leading many to question how much longer the US can power through these pressures.

The US economy is showing signs of strain as the effects of President Donald Trump’s trade policies begin to make their mark. After months of uncertainty surrounding the administration’s sweeping tariffs, key consumer goods are starting to feel the pressure of higher import costs. As the tariff-induced price hikes gradually filter down to everyday products, economists are raising concerns about the long-term impact on household budgets and economic growth. While the broader economy has remained resilient, the growing costs of items like appliances, clothing, and electronics have pushed inflation to its highest level in four months, leading many to question how much longer the US can power through these pressures. Inflation in the United States spiked in June, with the consumer price index (CPI) rising by 0.3 per cent, marking the largest monthly gain since January, according to the data released by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics on July 15. This pushed the annual inflation rate to 2.7 per cent, up from 2.4 per cent in May, in line with economists’ expectations. However, the most important thing to be noted here is that the increase in prices is being largely driven by goods exposed to tariffs, including appliances, clothing, and electronics, signalling a potential for sustained inflationary pressures. Tariff-driven inflation gains momentum The most recent CPI data provides a clear indication that tariffs imposed by President Trump’s administration are beginning to reach the consumers. While inflation had remained subdued in earlier months due to inventory stockpiles and declining energy prices, economists now warn that the full effects of these tariffs, especially on imports from China, are becoming increasingly visible in consumer goods prices. In particular, the costs for goods like appliances, sporting goods, toys, and apparel have risen sharply. Prices for appliances jumped by 1.9 per cent in June, marking the largest monthly increase since the pandemic’s peak in 2020. Similarly, toys saw a 1.4 per cent increase in June, continuing a trend from earlier in the year. The tariffs on steel and aluminium, which now apply to a wide array of derivative products such as washing machines, refrigerators, and dryers, have contributed significantly to these price hikes. Experts note that these increases are likely just the beginning, and the full impact of these tariffs may not be felt immediately due to businesses’ prior stockpiling of goods, but it will gradually show up on store shelves. Economists predict that the prices of imported goods will continue to rise throughout the year, potentially keeping overall inflation elevated. Labour market and consumer spending Despite the uptick in inflation, the broader economy has shown resilience. Employment data still points to job creation, and consumer spending remains relatively strong. On July 15, several of the largest US banks reported better-than-expected quarterly earnings, bolstered by steady demand for consumer loans and credit card spending. However, concerns are growing that inflation may start to affect consumer behaviour, especially for middle-income households. One concerning trend is the slowing growth in industries heavily reliant on immigrant labour, which could be linked to the ongoing immigration crackdown. A shrinking foreign-born labour force since March has contributed to slower job growth in sectors such as construction and hospitality. This trend has made it harder for businesses to fill low-wage positions, which could begin to weigh on overall employment figures in the coming months. In addition, some analysts are observing signs of spending weakness among lower-income Americans, with major banks such as JPMorgan noting declines in consumer confidence in certain income groups. However, spending patterns show that wealthier Americans are still thriving, propping up overall consumer demand and helping to cushion the economy against more significant downturns. The Yale Budget Lab recently estimated that tariffs have increased the average effective tariff rate on imported goods to 20.6 per cent, the highest level since 1910. While these tariffs are not immediately causing widespread price increases, Americans could face an effective $2,800 hit in annual household income due to higher costs on goods such as clothing, electronics, and furniture. Federal Reserve's dilemma The growing inflationary pressures come at a time when the Federal Reserve is caught in a delicate balancing act between fighting inflation and supporting economic growth. The June CPI data adds another layer of complexity to the Fed’s decision-making, especially as the central bank contemplates whether to continue interest rate cuts. While the core inflation—which excludes food and energy—rose 2.9 per cent over the past year, the increase was less severe than expected, suggesting that services inflation remains relatively subdued. Housing-related costs, such as rent and home prices, have cooled off, and prices for airfares and hotel rates were weak, possibly reflecting a pullback in discretionary spending. These factors could mitigate some of the pressures from the rising prices of goods. Some economists have noted that even though the CPI was in line with forecasts, the rise in inflation in June suggests that the Fed may pause its interest rate cuts. However, other experts suggested that the Fed may need to remain cautious, noting that there is strain on the middle-class consumer and calling for some relief to support household spending. As the Federal Reserve mulls over its next steps, some expect a rate cut later this year to help relieve financial pressures on middle-income families. But this raises the question of how much longer the US economy can maintain its growth trajectory under the weight of rising costs. Uncertainty and economic resilience With a number of economic inputs seeing price hikes and wage growth slowing, the outlook for the second half of the year remains uncertain. The stock market continues to perform well, with major indices hovering near all-time highs, but Treasury yields have risen sharply, with the 30-year bond yield surpassing 5 per cent for the first time since May. This signals growing concerns about long-term economic stability. The full impact of Trump’s trade war and tariff policies will likely take a few more months to fully materialise, but analysts caution that price increases could become a persistent feature in the economy. It’s clear that while the US economy has shown resilience so far, a prolonged period of rising inflation could become a significant challenge for policymakers, businesses, and consumers alike.

While the broader US economy has remained resilient, the growing costs of items like appliances, clothing, and electronics have pushed inflation to its highest level in four months, leading many to question how much longer the US can power through these pressures.

US economy faces growing pressure as tariffs begin to show impact

A new report from the Convention on Wetlands reveals a disturbing trend: the world’s wetlands, essential for supporting global food security, flood regulation, and climate resilience, are vanishing at an unprecedented pace. If current trends continue, the report warns, the loss of wetlands could result in a staggering $39 trillion in economic damage by 2050. According to the Global Wetland Outlook 2025, approximately 22 per cent of wetlands worldwide have disappeared since 1970, marking the fastest rate of ecosystem decline. Wetlands, which cover just 6 per cent of the Earth’s surface, provide crucial services such as water purification, carbon storage, fisheries support, and flood control. Their rapid destruction threatens both biodiversity and human livelihoods.The report identifies several key drivers behind this loss: land-use changes, pollution, agricultural expansion, invasive species, and the impacts of climate change, including rising sea levels and prolonged droughts. These pressures have led to the loss of 411 million hectares of wetlands globally—equivalent to the size of half a billion football pitches. Alarmingly, a quarter of the remaining wetlands are now classified as being in a degraded state.<h2>Urgent action needed for wetland restoration</h2>The report calls for significant financial investment to reverse these destructive trends, with estimates ranging from $275 billion to $550 billion annually. Without immediate action, the report warns that the cost of inaction could be catastrophic, with wetlands poised to continue disappearing at an average rate of 0.52 per cent per year.“We are sitting on a $10 trillion opportunity,” said Dr. Musonda Mumba, Secretary General of the Convention on Wetlands. “Restoring wetlands could unlock these benefits, but we’re running out of time.” The report emphasises that wetlands are vital to the water cycle, climate regulation, and supporting millions of people’s livelihoods worldwide.<h2>Global efforts and the way forward</h2>While the situation is dire, the report highlights some successful wetland restoration efforts, demonstrating that recovery is possible. In Zambia’s Kafue Flats, a $300,000 restoration project improved water systems and supported over 1.3 million people. Similarly, the Regional Flyway Initiative in Asia protects wetlands critical to migratory birds and nearly 200 million people.The Convention on Wetlands will address these challenges at its 15th meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe, later this month, where representatives from 172 countries will discuss strategies for conservation, restoration, and financing. However, with rising global tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, it remains unclear whether all nations will participate in this crucial gathering.With continued degradation most severe in Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean, the report underscores the need for robust international cooperation. Nations like Zambia, Cambodia, and China have already initiated restoration projects, but greater global commitment is needed to tackle the urgent crisis facing the world’s wetlands.

According to the Global Wetland Outlook 2025, approximately 22 per cent of wetlands worldwide have disappeared since 1970, marking the fastest rate of ecosystem decline. 

A new report from the Convention on Wetlands reveals a disturbing trend: the world’s wetlands, essential for supporting global food security, flood regulation, and climate resilience, are vanishing at an unprecedented pace. If current trends continue, the report warns, the loss of wetlands could result in a staggering $39 trillion in economic damage by 2050. According to the Global Wetland Outlook 2025, approximately 22 per cent of wetlands worldwide have disappeared since 1970, marking the fastest rate of ecosystem decline. Wetlands, which cover just 6 per cent of the Earth’s surface, provide crucial services such as water purification, carbon storage, fisheries support, and flood control. Their rapid destruction threatens both biodiversity and human livelihoods. The report identifies several key drivers behind this loss: land-use changes, pollution, agricultural expansion, invasive species, and the impacts of climate change, including rising sea levels and prolonged droughts. These pressures have led to the loss of 411 million hectares of wetlands globally—equivalent to the size of half a billion football pitches. Alarmingly, a quarter of the remaining wetlands are now classified as being in a degraded state. Urgent action needed for wetland restoration The report calls for significant financial investment to reverse these destructive trends, with estimates ranging from $275 billion to $550 billion annually. Without immediate action, the report warns that the cost of inaction could be catastrophic, with wetlands poised to continue disappearing at an average rate of 0.52 per cent per year. “We are sitting on a $10 trillion opportunity,” said Dr. Musonda Mumba, Secretary General of the Convention on Wetlands. “Restoring wetlands could unlock these benefits, but we’re running out of time.” The report emphasises that wetlands are vital to the water cycle, climate regulation, and supporting millions of people’s livelihoods worldwide. Global efforts and the way forward While the situation is dire, the report highlights some successful wetland restoration efforts, demonstrating that recovery is possible. In Zambia’s Kafue Flats, a $300,000 restoration project improved water systems and supported over 1.3 million people. Similarly, the Regional Flyway Initiative in Asia protects wetlands critical to migratory birds and nearly 200 million people. The Convention on Wetlands will address these challenges at its 15th meeting in Victoria Falls, Zimbabwe, later this month, where representatives from 172 countries will discuss strategies for conservation, restoration, and financing. However, with rising global tensions and geopolitical uncertainty, it remains unclear whether all nations will participate in this crucial gathering. With continued degradation most severe in Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean, the report underscores the need for robust international cooperation. Nations like Zambia, Cambodia, and China have already initiated restoration projects, but greater global commitment is needed to tackle the urgent crisis facing the world’s wetlands.

According to the Global Wetland Outlook 2025, approximately 22 per cent of wetlands worldwide have disappeared since 1970, marking the fastest rate of ecosystem decline.&nbsp;

Global wetlands disappearing at alarming rate, threatening $39 trillion in economic losses

In a significant move that solidifies its commitment to clean energy, Google has announced a historic $3 billion deal with Brookfield Asset Management, securing up to 3 gigawatts of hydropower for its energy-hungry data centres. The deal marks one of the largest corporate clean power contracts in the world and is poised to play a significant role in helping Google meet its ambitious sustainability goals. The partnership centres on two hydroelectric plants in Pennsylvania: the Holtwood and Safe Harbor plants, located roughly 75 miles southwest of Philadelphia. These facilities, with a combined capacity of 670 megawatts, will provide power to Google’s data centres for the next 20 years. However, this is just the beginning.&nbsp;The framework agreement between Google and Brookfield sets the stage for a potential expansion, as Google aims to secure up to 3,000 megawatts of hydropower from Brookfield in the coming years, spanning the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Gulf Coast regions. Google’s move comes amid a broader push by the tech industry to tackle the rapidly growing demand for energy driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing.&nbsp;As part of its clean energy push, Google has already made notable investments in other renewable energy sources, such as geothermal and advanced nuclear power. This latest deal underscores the company’s dedication to a 24/7 clean energy model, where energy consumption from its data centres aligns with the clean power generated at any given time.<h2>Why hydropower?&nbsp;</h2>The decision to turn to hydropower is not random. Google’s data centres, which power billions of online services daily, have long been major consumers of energy, and finding reliable, clean energy sources has become critical. While solar and wind power are popular renewable sources, they come with limitations due to their intermittent nature. Wind and solar energy are dependent on weather conditions, making them less reliable in meeting the constant demand from hyperscale data centres.Hydropower, in contrast, offers a reliable and continuous source of energy. Unlike wind and solar, hydropower is a dispatchable resource, meaning it can be produced on demand by releasing stored water from reservoirs. This ability to provide consistent, round-the-clock power makes hydropower an ideal energy source for data centres, which require uninterrupted access to electricity.Hydropower also provides the added benefit of being carbon-free, helping Google advance its sustainability goals. The company has long been committed to sourcing 100 per cent renewable energy for its global operations, and this latest deal with Brookfield will support that effort. As part of the agreement, Google is collaborating with Brookfield to upgrade and relicense its two Pennsylvania plants, ensuring they remain operational for decades to come.“The collaboration with Brookfield is a significant step forward in ensuring a clean energy supply for our data centres, especially in the PJM region where we operate,” said Amanda Peterson Corio, Google's head of data centre energy, in a statement. “This agreement will help us meet our energy consumption needs while also contributing to our broader sustainability goals.”<h2>An industry-wide shift</h2>Google’s $3 billion deal with Brookfield is part of a broader industry trend among hyperscalers—companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms—that operate large-scale data centres and consume vast amounts of electricity. As the demand for cloud computing and AI applications continues to surge, these tech giants are facing mounting pressure to secure clean, reliable energy sources.The increasing reliance on AI, which requires massive amounts of data processing, has exacerbated the need for electricity. A report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that electricity consumption from data centres is growing rapidly, driven by AI applications and other cloud computing needs. This demand has led to a shift in how tech companies approach their energy procurement.The trend toward hydropower is part of a broader effort to address energy shortages and sustainability concerns. While hydropower has not historically been the focal point for tech companies, it is now gaining attention as a potential solution. Microsoft, for example, has been using hydropower for its data centres for nearly a decade. Other companies, including DPO and Polar, are exploring hydropower for their new data centres, particularly in regions like Washington State and Norway.However, hydropower faces its own challenges. For one, it is often difficult to find new sites for hydroelectric dams, as most prime locations are already in use. In addition, building new hydro plants can take years, far longer than the typical two to three years required to build new data centres. The limited availability of hydropower resources has led many companies to secure existing plants or work with utilities to upgrade and expand their capacity.<h2>Navigating power challenges</h2>As data centres continue to consume more power, the competition for renewable energy sources is only intensifying. While hydropower is an attractive option, it remains a niche solution that may not be able to meet the growing demand in the long term. Experts suggest that the shift to hydropower may only be a stopgap measure, with other energy sources like natural gas, nuclear, and advanced renewables playing a larger role in the future.Google’s deal with Brookfield is a significant step, not only for the company but for the entire tech industry. The partnership highlights the growing importance of sustainable energy solutions in powering the next generation of AI and cloud services.

Google aims to secure up to 3 gigawatts of hydropower for its energy-hungry data centres from Brookfield in the coming years. The move comes amid a broader industry push to tackle the growing energy demand driven by AI and cloud computing.

In a significant move that solidifies its commitment to clean energy, Google has announced a historic $3 billion deal with Brookfield Asset Management, securing up to 3 gigawatts of hydropower for its energy-hungry data centres. The deal marks one of the largest corporate clean power contracts in the world and is poised to play a significant role in helping Google meet its ambitious sustainability goals. The partnership centres on two hydroelectric plants in Pennsylvania: the Holtwood and Safe Harbor plants, located roughly 75 miles southwest of Philadelphia. These facilities, with a combined capacity of 670 megawatts, will provide power to Google’s data centres for the next 20 years. However, this is just the beginning. The framework agreement between Google and Brookfield sets the stage for a potential expansion, as Google aims to secure up to 3,000 megawatts of hydropower from Brookfield in the coming years, spanning the Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, and Gulf Coast regions. Google’s move comes amid a broader push by the tech industry to tackle the rapidly growing demand for energy driven by artificial intelligence (AI) and cloud computing. As part of its clean energy push, Google has already made notable investments in other renewable energy sources, such as geothermal and advanced nuclear power. This latest deal underscores the company’s dedication to a 24/7 clean energy model, where energy consumption from its data centres aligns with the clean power generated at any given time. Why hydropower? The decision to turn to hydropower is not random. Google’s data centres, which power billions of online services daily, have long been major consumers of energy, and finding reliable, clean energy sources has become critical. While solar and wind power are popular renewable sources, they come with limitations due to their intermittent nature. Wind and solar energy are dependent on weather conditions, making them less reliable in meeting the constant demand from hyperscale data centres. Hydropower, in contrast, offers a reliable and continuous source of energy. Unlike wind and solar, hydropower is a dispatchable resource, meaning it can be produced on demand by releasing stored water from reservoirs. This ability to provide consistent, round-the-clock power makes hydropower an ideal energy source for data centres, which require uninterrupted access to electricity. Hydropower also provides the added benefit of being carbon-free, helping Google advance its sustainability goals. The company has long been committed to sourcing 100 per cent renewable energy for its global operations, and this latest deal with Brookfield will support that effort. As part of the agreement, Google is collaborating with Brookfield to upgrade and relicense its two Pennsylvania plants, ensuring they remain operational for decades to come. “The collaboration with Brookfield is a significant step forward in ensuring a clean energy supply for our data centres, especially in the PJM region where we operate,” said Amanda Peterson Corio, Google's head of data centre energy, in a statement. “This agreement will help us meet our energy consumption needs while also contributing to our broader sustainability goals.” An industry-wide shift Google’s $3 billion deal with Brookfield is part of a broader industry trend among hyperscalers—companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta Platforms—that operate large-scale data centres and consume vast amounts of electricity. As the demand for cloud computing and AI applications continues to surge, these tech giants are facing mounting pressure to secure clean, reliable energy sources. The increasing reliance on AI, which requires massive amounts of data processing, has exacerbated the need for electricity. A report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) notes that electricity consumption from data centres is growing rapidly, driven by AI applications and other cloud computing needs. This demand has led to a shift in how tech companies approach their energy procurement. The trend toward hydropower is part of a broader effort to address energy shortages and sustainability concerns. While hydropower has not historically been the focal point for tech companies, it is now gaining attention as a potential solution. Microsoft, for example, has been using hydropower for its data centres for nearly a decade. Other companies, including DPO and Polar, are exploring hydropower for their new data centres, particularly in regions like Washington State and Norway. However, hydropower faces its own challenges. For one, it is often difficult to find new sites for hydroelectric dams, as most prime locations are already in use. In addition, building new hydro plants can take years, far longer than the typical two to three years required to build new data centres. The limited availability of hydropower resources has led many companies to secure existing plants or work with utilities to upgrade and expand their capacity. Navigating power challenges As data centres continue to consume more power, the competition for renewable energy sources is only intensifying. While hydropower is an attractive option, it remains a niche solution that may not be able to meet the growing demand in the long term. Experts suggest that the shift to hydropower may only be a stopgap measure, with other energy sources like natural gas, nuclear, and advanced renewables playing a larger role in the future. Google’s deal with Brookfield is a significant step, not only for the company but for the entire tech industry. The partnership highlights the growing importance of sustainable energy solutions in powering the next generation of AI and cloud services.

Google aims to secure up to 3 gigawatts of hydropower for its energy-hungry data centres from Brookfield in the coming years. The move comes amid a broader industry push to tackle the growing energy demand driven by AI and cloud computing.

Google inks $3 billion hydropower deal, but why? Is it a trend in the making?

Apple and MP Materials have entered a $500 million agreement aimed at enhancing the US supply chain for rare earth materials, which are essential for manufacturing advanced technology like smartphones, electric vehicles (EVs), and renewable energy systems. The deal, announced on July 15, will involve the development of new manufacturing and recycling facilities in Texas and California, reinforcing Apple’s ongoing commitment to American manufacturing and sustainability.Under the agreement, Apple will purchase US-made rare earth magnets from MP Materials’ flagship facility in Fort Worth, Texas. The magnets, which are critical for the production of electronic devices, will be produced using cutting-edge manufacturing techniques designed specifically for Apple products. The Fort Worth facility will include new neodymium magnet manufacturing lines, boosting MP Materials’ capacity to meet rising global demand for these essential materials.<h2>Boosting domestic magnet production and recycling capacity</h2>In addition to the magnet manufacturing expansion in Texas, the two companies will collaborate on establishing a new rare earth recycling line in Mountain Pass, California. This facility will focus on recycling rare earth elements from used electronics and post-industrial scrap, creating a more sustainable loop for critical materials. Apple has been a leader in integrating recycled rare earth materials into its products. The company first introduced recycled rare earth elements into the Taptic Engine of the iPhone 11 in 2019, and now nearly all magnets in its devices are made with 100 per cent recycled rare earths.MP Materials, the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the United States, has been critical to reducing US dependence on China, which controls most of the global supply of rare earth elements. The new partnership will further solidify the US as a key player in the global rare earths market and help address the strategic challenge of securing domestic sources for these critical materials. MP Materials has already agreed to a multibillion-dollar deal with the US Department of Defense to ramp up rare earth production, and the new deal with Apple is expected to strengthen that initiative.“American innovation drives everything we do at Apple, and we’re proud to deepen our investment in the US economy,” said Apple CEO Tim Cook in a press release. “Rare earth materials are essential for making advanced technology, and this partnership will help strengthen the supply of these vital materials here in the United States.”<h2>Creating jobs and strengthening national security</h2>This collaboration is poised to create dozens of new jobs in advanced manufacturing, research and development, and rare earth recycling. As the US government continues its efforts to curb reliance on foreign sources for critical materials, including rare earths, the Apple-MP Materials deal represents a significant step forward in fortifying national security and economic resilience.MP Materials’ stock surged 20 per cent following the announcement, highlighting investor optimism about the long-term growth potential of the rare earth sector. The company, which operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, has already seen its stock price nearly quadruple in value since the beginning of the year, reflecting growing demand for domestic rare earth production. Apple’s investment in the rare earth industry is also part of a broader $500 billion initiative aimed at bolstering US manufacturing capabilities over the next four years, including plans for new factories and technological advancements in sectors like artificial intelligence (AI).The partnership between Apple and MP Materials is expected to have a far-reaching impact, not only strengthening the US supply chain for rare earths but also driving forward innovation in sustainable recycling technologies and manufacturing processes. As global demand for rare earth materials continues to rise, this collaboration aims to position the United States as a leader in the production of critical materials necessary for the technologies of tomorrow.

Under the agreement, Apple will purchase US-made rare earth magnets from MP Materials’ flagship facility in Fort Worth, Texas and the magnets will be produced using cutting-edge manufacturing techniques designed specifically for Apple products.

Apple and MP Materials have entered a $500 million agreement aimed at enhancing the US supply chain for rare earth materials, which are essential for manufacturing advanced technology like smartphones, electric vehicles (EVs), and renewable energy systems. The deal, announced on July 15, will involve the development of new manufacturing and recycling facilities in Texas and California, reinforcing Apple’s ongoing commitment to American manufacturing and sustainability. Under the agreement, Apple will purchase US-made rare earth magnets from MP Materials’ flagship facility in Fort Worth, Texas. The magnets, which are critical for the production of electronic devices, will be produced using cutting-edge manufacturing techniques designed specifically for Apple products. The Fort Worth facility will include new neodymium magnet manufacturing lines, boosting MP Materials’ capacity to meet rising global demand for these essential materials. Boosting domestic magnet production and recycling capacity In addition to the magnet manufacturing expansion in Texas, the two companies will collaborate on establishing a new rare earth recycling line in Mountain Pass, California. This facility will focus on recycling rare earth elements from used electronics and post-industrial scrap, creating a more sustainable loop for critical materials. Apple has been a leader in integrating recycled rare earth materials into its products. The company first introduced recycled rare earth elements into the Taptic Engine of the iPhone 11 in 2019, and now nearly all magnets in its devices are made with 100 per cent recycled rare earths. MP Materials, the only fully integrated rare earth producer in the United States, has been critical to reducing US dependence on China, which controls most of the global supply of rare earth elements. The new partnership will further solidify the US as a key player in the global rare earths market and help address the strategic challenge of securing domestic sources for these critical materials. MP Materials has already agreed to a multibillion-dollar deal with the US Department of Defense to ramp up rare earth production, and the new deal with Apple is expected to strengthen that initiative. “American innovation drives everything we do at Apple, and we’re proud to deepen our investment in the US economy,” said Apple CEO Tim Cook in a press release. “Rare earth materials are essential for making advanced technology, and this partnership will help strengthen the supply of these vital materials here in the United States.” Creating jobs and strengthening national security This collaboration is poised to create dozens of new jobs in advanced manufacturing, research and development, and rare earth recycling. As the US government continues its efforts to curb reliance on foreign sources for critical materials, including rare earths, the Apple-MP Materials deal represents a significant step forward in fortifying national security and economic resilience. MP Materials’ stock surged 20 per cent following the announcement, highlighting investor optimism about the long-term growth potential of the rare earth sector. The company, which operates the Mountain Pass mine in California, has already seen its stock price nearly quadruple in value since the beginning of the year, reflecting growing demand for domestic rare earth production. Apple’s investment in the rare earth industry is also part of a broader $500 billion initiative aimed at bolstering US manufacturing capabilities over the next four years, including plans for new factories and technological advancements in sectors like artificial intelligence (AI). The partnership between Apple and MP Materials is expected to have a far-reaching impact, not only strengthening the US supply chain for rare earths but also driving forward innovation in sustainable recycling technologies and manufacturing processes. As global demand for rare earth materials continues to rise, this collaboration aims to position the United States as a leader in the production of critical materials necessary for the technologies of tomorrow.

Under the agreement, Apple will purchase US-made rare earth magnets from MP Materials’ flagship facility in Fort Worth, Texas and the magnets will be produced using cutting-edge manufacturing techniques designed specifically for Apple products.

Apple aims to bolster US supply chain with $500 million deal with MP Materials for rare earth magnets

US President Donald Trump announced on July 15 that the United States had finalised a new trade deal with Indonesia, significantly reducing tariffs on US exports while imposing a 19 per cent tariff on Indonesian goods. This agreement is seen as a key step in Trump’s ongoing effort to address the US trade deficit and secure better trade terms with foreign partners. Under the terms of the deal, Indonesia will pay a 19 per cent tariff on its exports to the US, a substantial reduction from the previously threatened 32 per cent tariff.“Great deal, for everybody, just made with Indonesia,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social, adding that details would follow soon. “They are going to pay 19 per cent, and we are going to pay nothing... full access to Indonesia.”The agreement, which was finalised through direct negotiations between Trump and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, is part of a broader strategy to reduce US trade imbalances with key nations. Trump also revealed that Indonesia had committed to purchasing significant amounts of US exports, including $15 billion worth of US energy, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing jets, many of which would be 777 models.While Indonesia does not rank among the top 15 trade partners of the United States, the trade value has been growing over the past few years. Indonesia’s total trade with the US stood at just under $40 billion in 2024. US exports to Indonesia grew 3.7 per cent last year, while imports from there were up 4.8 per cent, leaving the US with a goods trade deficit of nearly $18 billion.<h2>Tariff reductions and new trade commitments</h2>The deal with Indonesia marks a significant shift from earlier threats of steep tariffs. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the agreement would align with the administration’s broader objective of eliminating tariffs on US exports while imposing tariffs on imports, a model recently established with Vietnam.“By eliminating tariffs on US goods, we’re unleashing the potential of our farmers, ranchers, and manufacturers,” Lutnick explained. The deal with Indonesia is expected to help reduce the nearly $18 billion trade deficit the US currently holds with the Southeast Asian nation, which recorded a total trade volume of approximately $40 billion with the US in 2024.<h2>Wider global trade pressures and ongoing negotiations</h2>Despite the announced deal, Trump’s broader tariff agenda has raised tensions with other trading partners. He has sent letters to over 20 nations, including the European Union, Japan, and Malaysia, warning of new tariff rates if negotiations do not result in better terms by the August 1 deadline.While Trump has made strides with countries like Vietnam and the UK, the uncertainty surrounding the implementation of these agreements continues to leave foreign markets on edge. The trade deal with Indonesia, however, provides a glimmer of hope for US exporters and marks another step in Trump’s “America First” trade strategy.&nbsp;(With inputs from agencies)

Donald Trump revealed that Indonesia had committed to purchasing significant amounts of US exports, including $15 billion worth of US energy, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing jets, many of which would be 777 models.

US President Donald Trump announced on July 15 that the United States had finalised a new trade deal with Indonesia, significantly reducing tariffs on US exports while imposing a 19 per cent tariff on Indonesian goods. This agreement is seen as a key step in Trump’s ongoing effort to address the US trade deficit and secure better trade terms with foreign partners. Under the terms of the deal, Indonesia will pay a 19 per cent tariff on its exports to the US, a substantial reduction from the previously threatened 32 per cent tariff. “Great deal, for everybody, just made with Indonesia,” Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social, adding that details would follow soon. “They are going to pay 19 per cent, and we are going to pay nothing... full access to Indonesia.” The agreement, which was finalised through direct negotiations between Trump and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, is part of a broader strategy to reduce US trade imbalances with key nations. Trump also revealed that Indonesia had committed to purchasing significant amounts of US exports, including $15 billion worth of US energy, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing jets, many of which would be 777 models. While Indonesia does not rank among the top 15 trade partners of the United States, the trade value has been growing over the past few years. Indonesia’s total trade with the US stood at just under $40 billion in 2024. US exports to Indonesia grew 3.7 per cent last year, while imports from there were up 4.8 per cent, leaving the US with a goods trade deficit of nearly $18 billion. Tariff reductions and new trade commitments The deal with Indonesia marks a significant shift from earlier threats of steep tariffs. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick stated that the agreement would align with the administration’s broader objective of eliminating tariffs on US exports while imposing tariffs on imports, a model recently established with Vietnam. “By eliminating tariffs on US goods, we’re unleashing the potential of our farmers, ranchers, and manufacturers,” Lutnick explained. The deal with Indonesia is expected to help reduce the nearly $18 billion trade deficit the US currently holds with the Southeast Asian nation, which recorded a total trade volume of approximately $40 billion with the US in 2024. Wider global trade pressures and ongoing negotiations Despite the announced deal, Trump’s broader tariff agenda has raised tensions with other trading partners. He has sent letters to over 20 nations, including the European Union, Japan, and Malaysia, warning of new tariff rates if negotiations do not result in better terms by the August 1 deadline. While Trump has made strides with countries like Vietnam and the UK, the uncertainty surrounding the implementation of these agreements continues to leave foreign markets on edge. The trade deal with Indonesia, however, provides a glimmer of hope for US exporters and marks another step in Trump’s “America First” trade strategy. (With inputs from agencies)

Donald Trump revealed that Indonesia had committed to purchasing significant amounts of US exports, including $15 billion worth of US energy, $4.5 billion in agricultural products, and 50 Boeing jets, many of which would be 777 models.

Trump finalises trade deal with Indonesia: Tariff set at 19%, major export commitments for US

India’s retail inflation cooled sharply to 2.10 per cent in June, marking its lowest level in over six years and slipping close to the bottom end of the Reserve Bank of India’s target band. The dramatic slowdown has been driven largely by easing food prices, offering the central bank more headroom to support growth through monetary easing. According to Reuters, June’s inflation prints surprised markets, coming in lower than the 2.5 per cent median estimate in a Reuters poll. It also marked a steep decline from 2.82 per cent in May.<h2>Food prices lead the disinflation trend</h2>Food prices, which make up nearly half of India’s consumer price index basket, saw a year-on-year decline of 1.06 per cent in June. This compared with a 0.99 per cent rise in May, signalling broad-based relief for consumers. Vegetable prices plunged 19 per cent year-on-year in June, extending May’s 13.7 per cent fall.&nbsp;Sakshi Gupta, economist at HDFC Bank, told Reuters that, “CPI inflation edged further down in June on the back of lower food prices". The government’s statistical office confirmed that both headline and food inflation in June were the lowest since January 2019.<h2>Easing inflation gives RBI room to focus on growth</h2>The latest inflation data underscores the impact of favourable monsoon rains, which have boosted crop production and moderated food prices. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is mandated to keep inflation within a 2–6 per cent band for three consecutive quarters. With inflation now hovering at the bottom end of that range, economists say the central bank has room to continue cutting rates if needed. In June, the RBI surprised markets by cutting its repo rate by 50 basis points, a larger-than-expected move that signalled a shift toward supporting economic growth.&nbsp;The central bank also lowered its fiscal 2026 retail inflation forecast to 3.7 per cent from 4 per cent, citing the early arrival of monsoon rains and strong harvest expectations. Sanjay Malhotra, RBI governor, told a national daily that if inflation undershoots the central bank’s projections, it could create further space for policy easing.<h2>Economists see scope for more cuts, but caution remains</h2>While the latest inflation data has boosted hopes for further monetary easing, some economists caution that the RBI will likely take a measured approach.&nbsp;Upasna Bhardwaj, economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, told Reuters that, “While comfortable inflation opens room for further monetary easing, we expect the RBI to maintain a pause in the coming one-two meetings and remain watchful of the transmission ahead along with global uncertainties.”&nbsp;Core inflation, an important gauge of underlying demand that excludes volatile food and energy prices was estimated at 4.4–4.5 per cent in June, up from 4.17–4.20 per cent in May, according to economists quoted by Reuters. India’s official statistics agency does not publish core inflation figures, but analysts track them closely to assess the persistence of price pressures beyond food and fuel.The bottom line&nbsp;June’s inflation reading offers a rare piece of good news for India’s policymakers, signalling that the central bank has regained room to manoeuvre after a year of battling price pressures.But with core inflation still elevated and global risks looming, the RBI is expected to tread carefully, balancing the need to support growth with its commitment to price stability.&nbsp;

However, with core inflation still hovering above 4.4% and global uncertainties in play, economists expect the RBI to proceed with caution, maintaining a data driven approach in future policy decisions.

India’s retail inflation cooled sharply to 2.10 per cent in June, marking its lowest level in over six years and slipping close to the bottom end of the Reserve Bank of India’s target band. The dramatic slowdown has been driven largely by easing food prices, offering the central bank more headroom to support growth through monetary easing. According to Reuters, June’s inflation prints surprised markets, coming in lower than the 2.5 per cent median estimate in a Reuters poll. It also marked a steep decline from 2.82 per cent in May. Food prices lead the disinflation trend Food prices, which make up nearly half of India’s consumer price index basket, saw a year-on-year decline of 1.06 per cent in June. This compared with a 0.99 per cent rise in May, signalling broad-based relief for consumers. Vegetable prices plunged 19 per cent year-on-year in June, extending May’s 13.7 per cent fall. Sakshi Gupta, economist at HDFC Bank, told Reuters that, “CPI inflation edged further down in June on the back of lower food prices". The government’s statistical office confirmed that both headline and food inflation in June were the lowest since January 2019. Easing inflation gives RBI room to focus on growth The latest inflation data underscores the impact of favourable monsoon rains, which have boosted crop production and moderated food prices. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is mandated to keep inflation within a 2–6 per cent band for three consecutive quarters. With inflation now hovering at the bottom end of that range, economists say the central bank has room to continue cutting rates if needed. In June, the RBI surprised markets by cutting its repo rate by 50 basis points, a larger-than-expected move that signalled a shift toward supporting economic growth. The central bank also lowered its fiscal 2026 retail inflation forecast to 3.7 per cent from 4 per cent, citing the early arrival of monsoon rains and strong harvest expectations. Sanjay Malhotra, RBI governor, told a national daily that if inflation undershoots the central bank’s projections, it could create further space for policy easing. Economists see scope for more cuts, but caution remains While the latest inflation data has boosted hopes for further monetary easing, some economists caution that the RBI will likely take a measured approach. Upasna Bhardwaj, economist at Kotak Mahindra Bank, told Reuters that, “While comfortable inflation opens room for further monetary easing, we expect the RBI to maintain a pause in the coming one-two meetings and remain watchful of the transmission ahead along with global uncertainties.” Core inflation, an important gauge of underlying demand that excludes volatile food and energy prices was estimated at 4.4–4.5 per cent in June, up from 4.17–4.20 per cent in May, according to economists quoted by Reuters. India’s official statistics agency does not publish core inflation figures, but analysts track them closely to assess the persistence of price pressures beyond food and fuel. The bottom line June’s inflation reading offers a rare piece of good news for India’s policymakers, signalling that the central bank has regained room to manoeuvre after a year of battling price pressures. But with core inflation still elevated and global risks looming, the RBI is expected to tread carefully, balancing the need to support growth with its commitment to price stability.

India’s inflation dropped to a six-year low of 2.10% in June, led by falling food prices. The RBI now has room for further easing, but core inflation and global risks could limit bold moves.

India’s retail inflation hits six-year low at 2.1% on falling food prices

US President Donald Trump has renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve, insisting the central bank should slash its benchmark interest rate to 1 per cent. He argues such a move would cut government borrowing costs and help finance the ballooning deficits driven by his administration’s spending and tax cuts.&nbsp;But economists warn this demand could spell serious trouble for the world’s largest economy. According to Reuters, Trump’s push for ultra-low rates risks undermining the Fed’s credibility, reigniting inflation and rattling investors in the $36 trillion US Treasury market, a critical source of funding for the federal government.<h2>Crisis-era rates, but no crisis</h2>Historically, a 1 per cent Fed policy rate has been associated with moments of genuine economic distress: the dot-com crash, the aftermath of 9/11, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. None of those conditions describe the current US economy.&nbsp;Unemployment is relatively low at 4.1 per cent, GDP growth is around 2 per cent, and inflation sits just above the Fed’s 2 per cent target. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told Reuters that, “There is scope to ease from the current 4.25%-4.50% range, but nothing like the magnitude of cuts Trump envisions.”&nbsp;Daco noted that slashing rates to 1 per cent could alarm markets, signalling that the Fed had bowed to political pressure rather than responding to data, risking a loss of confidence and a spike in inflation expectations.The Fed’s mandate: not cheap borrowingThe Federal Reserve’s job is to maintain price stability and full employment, not to make it easier for the government to borrow. Cutting rates sharply when the economy isn’t in recession could spur demand just as new tariffs risk pushing prices higher.&nbsp;&nbsp;Trump’s administration recently passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, which is expected to widen the budget deficit and increase government borrowing needs. As Reuters notes, larger deficits mean the Treasury will have to issue more debt, potentially pushing interest rates up – the opposite of what Trump hopes for.<h2>Markets set the cost of borrowing</h2>Even if the Fed lowers its overnight rate, broader borrowing costs – such as those on mortgages, corporate loans, and crucially, government bonds – depend on investor demand. Global investors weigh inflation risks, government fiscal discipline and trust in institutions when pricing US debt.&nbsp;If markets perceive a 1 per cent Fed rate as politically motivated and inflationary, they could demand higher yields to compensate for the added risk. Reuters points out that when Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2024, Treasury yields rose – a clear signal that investors watch central bank independence closely.<h2>A question of trust and credibility</h2>The Fed uses rules and models to guide policy decisions, balancing inflation and growth data to set an appropriate interest rate. None of those frameworks support the kind of extreme cut Trump wants now.Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told Reuters such a move would risk unmooring inflation expectations at precisely the moment the central bank needs to keep them anchored.&nbsp;Any sign that the Fed was being used to finance political priorities could undermine trust in US economic management and damage the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.<h2>The bottom line</h2>Trump may see a 1 per cent interest rate as a way to fund his ambitious spending plans on the cheap, but the broader economy could pay the price in the form of higher inflation, reduced investor confidence, and long-term financial instability.&nbsp;While rate cuts remain possible if the economy weakens, economists caution that a sharp, politically driven move now would be risky and irresponsible.&nbsp;

But economists warn such an aggressive move could jeopardize the Fed credibility, spark inflation, and destabilise the $36 trillion Treasury market.

US President Donald Trump has renewed pressure on the Federal Reserve, insisting the central bank should slash its benchmark interest rate to 1 per cent. He argues such a move would cut government borrowing costs and help finance the ballooning deficits driven by his administration’s spending and tax cuts. But economists warn this demand could spell serious trouble for the world’s largest economy. According to Reuters, Trump’s push for ultra-low rates risks undermining the Fed’s credibility, reigniting inflation and rattling investors in the $36 trillion US Treasury market, a critical source of funding for the federal government. Crisis-era rates, but no crisis Historically, a 1 per cent Fed policy rate has been associated with moments of genuine economic distress: the dot-com crash, the aftermath of 9/11, the 2008 global financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. None of those conditions describe the current US economy. Unemployment is relatively low at 4.1 per cent, GDP growth is around 2 per cent, and inflation sits just above the Fed’s 2 per cent target. Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, told Reuters that, “There is scope to ease from the current 4.25%-4.50% range, but nothing like the magnitude of cuts Trump envisions.” Daco noted that slashing rates to 1 per cent could alarm markets, signalling that the Fed had bowed to political pressure rather than responding to data, risking a loss of confidence and a spike in inflation expectations. The Fed’s mandate: not cheap borrowing The Federal Reserve’s job is to maintain price stability and full employment, not to make it easier for the government to borrow. Cutting rates sharply when the economy isn’t in recession could spur demand just as new tariffs risk pushing prices higher. Trump’s administration recently passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”, which is expected to widen the budget deficit and increase government borrowing needs. As Reuters notes, larger deficits mean the Treasury will have to issue more debt, potentially pushing interest rates up – the opposite of what Trump hopes for. Markets set the cost of borrowing Even if the Fed lowers its overnight rate, broader borrowing costs – such as those on mortgages, corporate loans, and crucially, government bonds – depend on investor demand. Global investors weigh inflation risks, government fiscal discipline and trust in institutions when pricing US debt. If markets perceive a 1 per cent Fed rate as politically motivated and inflationary, they could demand higher yields to compensate for the added risk. Reuters points out that when Trump threatened to fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell in 2024, Treasury yields rose – a clear signal that investors watch central bank independence closely. A question of trust and credibility The Fed uses rules and models to guide policy decisions, balancing inflation and growth data to set an appropriate interest rate. None of those frameworks support the kind of extreme cut Trump wants now. Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told Reuters such a move would risk unmooring inflation expectations at precisely the moment the central bank needs to keep them anchored. Any sign that the Fed was being used to finance political priorities could undermine trust in US economic management and damage the dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency. The bottom line Trump may see a 1 per cent interest rate as a way to fund his ambitious spending plans on the cheap, but the broader economy could pay the price in the form of higher inflation, reduced investor confidence, and long-term financial instability. While rate cuts remain possible if the economy weakens, economists caution that a sharp, politically driven move now would be risky and irresponsible.

Trump’s push for 1% interest rates alarms economists, who warn it could erode Fed independence, trigger inflation, and spook Treasury markets, despite no recession in sight.

Why Trump’s call for a 1% Federal Reserve rate could backfire on the US economy

Gold prices rose on Tuesday as investors sought safe-haven assets amid mounting global trade tensions, while markets looked ahead to key US inflation data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate move. Spot gold climbed 0.5 per cent to $3,359.01 per ounce as of 0635 GMT, while US gold futures gained 0.3 per cent to $3,368.20, according to Reuters.&nbsp;The precious metal’s steady rise underscores its traditional role as a hedge during geopolitical and trade-related uncertainty, with market watchers closely tracking President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff threats against major trading partners.<h2>Tariff tensions drive safe-haven demand</h2>US President Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 30 per cent tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union from August 1 if no trade deal is reached, intensifying fears of a fresh trade war that could dent global economic growth.&nbsp;Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, told Reuters that, “Gold has shown in the past that it is an asset of choice when tariff tensions are ratcheted up, and the precious metal’s move towards $3,350 is evidence of this pattern playing out again”. However, Waterer also cautioned that higher US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar were creating headwinds for further gains, suggesting gold would need a retreat in yields or the dollar to break decisively towards $3,400.<h2>Inflation data in focus</h2>Investor attention is now squarely on the release of June’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due later on Tuesday. A Reuters poll of economists expects annual headline inflation to have risen to 2.7 per cent in June, up from 2.4 per cent in May. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to climb to 3.0 per cent from 2.8 per cent.&nbsp;The inflation reading will be closely watched for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move, as markets currently expect 50 basis points of interest rate cuts before the end of the year, with the first reduction anticipated in September.&nbsp;Trump on Monday renewed his attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, arguing that interest rates should be 1 per cent or lower, further fuelling debate about the central bank’s future policy path. Gold traditionally performs well in a low interest rate environment, as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset.<h2>Silver shines amid supply fears</h2>Elsewhere in precious metals, spot silver also gained 0.5 per cent to $38.32 per ounce after hitting its highest level since September 2011 on Monday.&nbsp;Waterer told Reuters that silver was benefiting not only from gold’s broader rally but also from its own supply concerns and strong industrial demand that, “Also, gold’s rise over the past 18 months has had investors looking elsewhere for value and silver has been one of the metals to rise as a result.”<h2>Broader precious metals market rises</h2>Platinum rose 1.1 per cent to $1,379.22 per ounce, while palladium gained 0.5 per cent to $1,200.01, according to Reuters data.&nbsp;As the global economy faces trade disputes, tariff threats and persistent inflation concerns, the broader precious metals market continues to find support among investors hedging against uncertainty. &nbsp;

With US CPI expected to show an uptick in June, investors are weighing the Fed next move, while higher yields and a stronger dollar pose near term risks to further gold gains. Silver also surged, supported by industrial demand and tight supply.

Gold prices rose on Tuesday as investors sought safe-haven assets amid mounting global trade tensions, while markets looked ahead to key US inflation data that could shape the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate move. Spot gold climbed 0.5 per cent to $3,359.01 per ounce as of 0635 GMT, while US gold futures gained 0.3 per cent to $3,368.20, according to Reuters. The precious metal’s steady rise underscores its traditional role as a hedge during geopolitical and trade-related uncertainty, with market watchers closely tracking President Donald Trump’s escalating tariff threats against major trading partners. Tariff tensions drive safe-haven demand US President Trump on Saturday threatened to impose a 30 per cent tariff on imports from Mexico and the European Union from August 1 if no trade deal is reached, intensifying fears of a fresh trade war that could dent global economic growth. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, told Reuters that, “Gold has shown in the past that it is an asset of choice when tariff tensions are ratcheted up, and the precious metal’s move towards $3,350 is evidence of this pattern playing out again”. However, Waterer also cautioned that higher US Treasury yields, and a stronger dollar were creating headwinds for further gains, suggesting gold would need a retreat in yields or the dollar to break decisively towards $3,400. Inflation data in focus Investor attention is now squarely on the release of June’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due later on Tuesday. A Reuters poll of economists expects annual headline inflation to have risen to 2.7 per cent in June, up from 2.4 per cent in May. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is projected to climb to 3.0 per cent from 2.8 per cent. The inflation reading will be closely watched for clues about the Federal Reserve’s next move, as markets currently expect 50 basis points of interest rate cuts before the end of the year, with the first reduction anticipated in September. Trump on Monday renewed his attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, arguing that interest rates should be 1 per cent or lower, further fuelling debate about the central bank’s future policy path. Gold traditionally performs well in a low interest rate environment, as lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Silver shines amid supply fears Elsewhere in precious metals, spot silver also gained 0.5 per cent to $38.32 per ounce after hitting its highest level since September 2011 on Monday. Waterer told Reuters that silver was benefiting not only from gold’s broader rally but also from its own supply concerns and strong industrial demand that, “Also, gold’s rise over the past 18 months has had investors looking elsewhere for value and silver has been one of the metals to rise as a result.” Broader precious metals market rises Platinum rose 1.1 per cent to $1,379.22 per ounce, while palladium gained 0.5 per cent to $1,200.01, according to Reuters data. As the global economy faces trade disputes, tariff threats and persistent inflation concerns, the broader precious metals market continues to find support among investors hedging against uncertainty.

Gold, silver, and platinum rose as US tariff threats and inflation fears drove safe-haven demand. Investors await CPI data and Fed signals, with Trump pushing for aggressive rate cuts.

Gold gains as trade tensions and US inflation data keep investors on edge

US technology giant Nvidia has announced that it will resume sales of its advanced H20 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China, marking a dramatic reversal from earlier export restrictions imposed by the Trump administration. The decision comes after assurances from Washington that the necessary export licenses for the H20 chips will be granted. In a blog post published on July 14, Nvidia revealed that the US government has assured the company that it will grant licenses for the sale of its China-specific H20 AI chips.&nbsp;&nbsp;These chips, designed with lower specifications than Nvidia’s flagship products, were initially restricted due to concerns that they could be used by the Chinese military. The previous restrictions had been imposed earlier this year, blocking Nvidia’s ability to sell the chips to China. However, Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, has spent months lobbying US policymakers, arguing that the restrictions were hindering competition in a rapidly growing sector.&nbsp;&nbsp;Huang’s efforts were recently bolstered by meetings with President Trump, leading to the eventual reversal of the decision. Nvidia’s resumption of sales to China follows a broader trend of easing trade tensions between the two countries, as both governments seek to negotiate a long-term resolution to their ongoing trade dispute.&nbsp;<h2>Positive market reaction and strategic importance for Nvidia</h2>&nbsp;The news of Nvidia’s resumption of sales to China was met with a positive response from global markets. Following the announcement, Nasdaq futures surged, and Chinese stocks, particularly in the tech sector, saw strong gains. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by as much as 2.2 per cent, and companies like Beijing Sinnet Technology Co. saw jumps of up to 7.6 per cent.&nbsp;Nvidia, a key player in the AI semiconductor market, has long relied on China as a crucial market. With the country being home to half of the world’s AI researchers, Huang emphasised the importance of American companies being able to compete in the Chinese market. “It’s so innovative and dynamic here in China that it’s really important that American companies are able to serve the market,” Huang said during a recent appearance in Beijing.&nbsp;<h2>Future prospects and AI market dynamics</h2>&nbsp;The US government’s decision to approve Nvidia’s AI chip sales to China marks a significant shift in the ongoing AI race between the two global powers. Despite earlier fears that China could leverage these advanced chips for military purposes, Huang remains confident that concerns are overblown, asserting that China simply can’t rely on them due to the potential for restrictions to be reinstated at any time.&nbsp;The resumption of H20 chip sales is expected to help Nvidia recover from earlier losses tied to unsold inventory. The company had anticipated up to $15 billion in sales from the H20 chips this fiscal year before the ban was enforced. As Nvidia continues to dominate the AI semiconductor market, this policy change could further solidify its position, both in China and globally.

The US government’s decision to approve Nvidia’s AI chip sales to China marks a significant shift in the ongoing AI race between the two global powers, despite earlier fears that China could leverage these advanced chips for military purposes.

US technology giant Nvidia has announced that it will resume sales of its advanced H20 artificial intelligence (AI) chips to China, marking a dramatic reversal from earlier export restrictions imposed by the Trump administration. The decision comes after assurances from Washington that the necessary export licenses for the H20 chips will be granted. In a blog post published on July 14, Nvidia revealed that the US government has assured the company that it will grant licenses for the sale of its China-specific H20 AI chips. These chips, designed with lower specifications than Nvidia’s flagship products, were initially restricted due to concerns that they could be used by the Chinese military. The previous restrictions had been imposed earlier this year, blocking Nvidia’s ability to sell the chips to China. However, Nvidia’s CEO, Jensen Huang, has spent months lobbying US policymakers, arguing that the restrictions were hindering competition in a rapidly growing sector. Huang’s efforts were recently bolstered by meetings with President Trump, leading to the eventual reversal of the decision. Nvidia’s resumption of sales to China follows a broader trend of easing trade tensions between the two countries, as both governments seek to negotiate a long-term resolution to their ongoing trade dispute. Positive market reaction and strategic importance for Nvidia The news of Nvidia’s resumption of sales to China was met with a positive response from global markets. Following the announcement, Nasdaq futures surged, and Chinese stocks, particularly in the tech sector, saw strong gains. The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by as much as 2.2 per cent, and companies like Beijing Sinnet Technology Co. saw jumps of up to 7.6 per cent. Nvidia, a key player in the AI semiconductor market, has long relied on China as a crucial market. With the country being home to half of the world’s AI researchers, Huang emphasised the importance of American companies being able to compete in the Chinese market. “It’s so innovative and dynamic here in China that it’s really important that American companies are able to serve the market,” Huang said during a recent appearance in Beijing. Future prospects and AI market dynamics The US government’s decision to approve Nvidia’s AI chip sales to China marks a significant shift in the ongoing AI race between the two global powers. Despite earlier fears that China could leverage these advanced chips for military purposes, Huang remains confident that concerns are overblown, asserting that China simply can’t rely on them due to the potential for restrictions to be reinstated at any time. The resumption of H20 chip sales is expected to help Nvidia recover from earlier losses tied to unsold inventory. The company had anticipated up to $15 billion in sales from the H20 chips this fiscal year before the ban was enforced. As Nvidia continues to dominate the AI semiconductor market, this policy change could further solidify its position, both in China and globally.

The US government’s decision to approve Nvidia’s AI chip sales to China marks a significant shift in the ongoing AI race between the two global powers, despite earlier fears that China could leverage these advanced chips for military purposes.

Nvidia to resume H20 AI chip sales to China following US policy reversal

United States inflation is expected to show a noticeable uptick in June, with new data likely confirming that President Donald Trump’s sweeping import tariffs are beginning to feed through into consumer prices. Economists told Reuters that the long-anticipated impact of tariffs on inflation had so far been delayed, as companies sold off pre-tariff inventories and hesitated to pass on higher costs.&nbsp;But that cushioning effect is now fading, with price hikes expected to spread more broadly in the coming months. The US Labour Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due Tuesday, is forecast to show a 0.3 per cent increase in June, after a subdued 0.1 per cent gain in May, the largest monthly rise since January.<h2>Gasoline and tariff-hit goods push prices higher</h2>According to Reuters, the June CPI rebound is expected to reflect higher petrol prices after four consecutive months of declines, as well as price rises for tariff-sensitive goods such as furniture and recreational items.&nbsp;Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told Reuters that, “The June CPI report is likely to show inflation beginning to strengthen again, albeit not enough to alarm Fed officials at this juncture. While inventory front-running has mitigated the need to raise goods prices, it will become increasingly difficult for businesses to absorb higher import duties as pre-tariff stockpiles dwindle". Retailers, including giants like Walmart, have already warned of price increases as the full impact of Trump’s tariff policies begins to bite.<h2>Trump’s tariff plan stokes inflation fears</h2>President Trump last week confirmed that new, higher tariffs will come into effect from August 1, targeting imports from major trading partners including Mexico, Japan, Canada, Brazil and the European Union. Economists say the impact of these new duties will likely extend the period of elevated inflation into the second half of the year.&nbsp;Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets, told Reuters that, “Anecdotal reports suggest that tariff-related price hikes began to finally grow in frequency in June, but I expect the bulk of the impact to come in July and August.”<h2>Headline and core inflation both warming</h2>For the 12 months through June, annual CPI inflation is forecast to have risen 2.7 per cent, up from 2.4 per cent in May. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components is also expected to post its biggest monthly increase since January, with a 0.3 per cent rise in June compared to 0.1 per cent in May.&nbsp;Reuters reports that economists see tariff-linked price pressures building in goods categories like consumer electronics, automobiles, and apparel, while services inflation is expected to remain more subdued.<h2>Fed likely to hold rates steady — for now</h2>Despite signs of rising price pressures, most analysts say the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be alarmed just yet. The central bank is widely expected to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range at its policy meeting later this month. Minutes of the Fed’s June 17–18 meeting, published last week, showed only “a couple” of officials saw scope to cut rates as soon as the late-July meeting.&nbsp;Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, told Reuters that even if goods inflation strengthens, the Fed would likely be reassured by contained services inflation that, “This should keep Fed officials comfortable lowering rates in September even if there is some stronger inflation data in the next few months.”<h2>Outlook: Tariff impact to intensify</h2>Investment bank Goldman Sachs is forecasting core CPI inflation to increase 0.3%–0.4% monthly over the next few months, driven by tariff-related price hikes. However, the bank expects a limited near-term impact on core services inflation.&nbsp;This tariff-fuelled inflation backdrop leaves the Federal Reserve in a tricky spot: wary of cutting rates too quickly and reigniting inflation, but also mindful of slowing economic growth and consumer spending pressures.&nbsp;

Annual CPI inflation is forecast at 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May. While services inflation remains subdued, the Fed is likely to hold rates steady in July, despite signs that the inflationary impact of Trump sweeping trade policy will intensify through the second half of 2025.

United States inflation is expected to show a noticeable uptick in June, with new data likely confirming that President Donald Trump’s sweeping import tariffs are beginning to feed through into consumer prices. Economists told Reuters that the long-anticipated impact of tariffs on inflation had so far been delayed, as companies sold off pre-tariff inventories and hesitated to pass on higher costs. But that cushioning effect is now fading, with price hikes expected to spread more broadly in the coming months. The US Labour Department’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, due Tuesday, is forecast to show a 0.3 per cent increase in June, after a subdued 0.1 per cent gain in May, the largest monthly rise since January. Gasoline and tariff-hit goods push prices higher According to Reuters, the June CPI rebound is expected to reflect higher petrol prices after four consecutive months of declines, as well as price rises for tariff-sensitive goods such as furniture and recreational items. Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told Reuters that, “The June CPI report is likely to show inflation beginning to strengthen again, albeit not enough to alarm Fed officials at this juncture. While inventory front-running has mitigated the need to raise goods prices, it will become increasingly difficult for businesses to absorb higher import duties as pre-tariff stockpiles dwindle". Retailers, including giants like Walmart, have already warned of price increases as the full impact of Trump’s tariff policies begins to bite. Trump’s tariff plan stokes inflation fears President Trump last week confirmed that new, higher tariffs will come into effect from August 1, targeting imports from major trading partners including Mexico, Japan, Canada, Brazil and the European Union. Economists say the impact of these new duties will likely extend the period of elevated inflation into the second half of the year. Stephen Stanley, chief US economist at Santander US Capital Markets, told Reuters that, “Anecdotal reports suggest that tariff-related price hikes began to finally grow in frequency in June, but I expect the bulk of the impact to come in July and August.” Headline and core inflation both warming For the 12 months through June, annual CPI inflation is forecast to have risen 2.7 per cent, up from 2.4 per cent in May. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy components is also expected to post its biggest monthly increase since January, with a 0.3 per cent rise in June compared to 0.1 per cent in May. Reuters reports that economists see tariff-linked price pressures building in goods categories like consumer electronics, automobiles, and apparel, while services inflation is expected to remain more subdued. Fed likely to hold rates steady — for now Despite signs of rising price pressures, most analysts say the Federal Reserve is unlikely to be alarmed just yet. The central bank is widely expected to hold its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range at its policy meeting later this month. Minutes of the Fed’s June 17–18 meeting, published last week, showed only “a couple” of officials saw scope to cut rates as soon as the late-July meeting. Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, told Reuters that even if goods inflation strengthens, the Fed would likely be reassured by contained services inflation that, “This should keep Fed officials comfortable lowering rates in September even if there is some stronger inflation data in the next few months.” Outlook: Tariff impact to intensify Investment bank Goldman Sachs is forecasting core CPI inflation to increase 0.3%–0.4% monthly over the next few months, driven by tariff-related price hikes. However, the bank expects a limited near-term impact on core services inflation. This tariff-fuelled inflation backdrop leaves the Federal Reserve in a tricky spot: wary of cutting rates too quickly and reigniting inflation, but also mindful of slowing economic growth and consumer spending pressures.

US inflation rebounded in June as Trump’s tariffs pushed up prices on goods like furniture and electronics. With CPI seen rising 0.3%, the Fed is expected to stay cautious on rate cuts despite mounting pressures.

US inflation set to rise in June as tariffs begin to drive up prices

Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence (AI) company, xAI, has secured a significant $200 million contract with the US Department of Defense (DoD) to provide its AI chatbot, Grok, for government use. This move signals the Pentagon’s broader strategy to incorporate advanced AI technologies into national security operations, a key priority for the Biden administration. Announced on July 14, the contract falls under xAI’s new “Grok for Government” suite, designed specifically for use by federal, state, and local government agencies.&nbsp;&nbsp;Grok 4, the latest version of the chatbot, will be central to this rollout, promising advanced AI tools for national security and critical scientific applications. These tools include deep search capabilities, custom models tailored for national security needs, and AI-driven systems to enhance healthcare and other government services.&nbsp;Through the General Services Administration (GSA), every US government agency now has access to purchase xAI’s products, making Grok available for a wide range of uses. The DoD and other federal agencies are expected to deploy these advanced AI solutions to accelerate missions, from intelligence operations to public health initiatives. This partnership with xAI places the company alongside other tech giants such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, each securing similar contracts worth up to $200 million.&nbsp;<h2>Controversy over antisemitic remarks and government data access</h2>&nbsp;Despite the enormous potential of the contract, the deal comes amid controversy surrounding Grok’s recent behaviour. Recently Grok was widely criticised for spouting antisemitic content, including self-references to Adolf Hitler. Musk, who oversees xAI, attributed the problem to Grok being “too compliant” with user input on his social media platform, X. The company has since updated Grok to address these issues, assuring users that inappropriate posts are being removed.&nbsp;The controversy raised serious questions about the reliability and safety of AI systems used in sensitive government operations, especially those involving national security. The incident underscored the risks of AI systems being trained on user-generated content, particularly when it comes to sensitive topics like global conflict and hate speech.&nbsp;Nevertheless, the Department of Defense is moving ahead with its contract with xAI, focusing on the capabilities of Grok and its potential to strengthen national security. This partnership also opens the door for more government access to the vast amounts of data generated by Musk’s social media platform, X, a matter of concern for privacy advocates.&nbsp;<h2>Musk’s expanding government portfolio amid political tensions</h2>&nbsp;Musk’s growing ties with the US government come at a time of strained relations with President Donald Trump. Musk previously served as a senior adviser to Trump and was appointed to head the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), a cost-cutting initiative. However, he resigned from the post in May following disagreements over Trump’s spending and tax policies. Despite this fallout, Musk still enjoys a plethora of multi-million dollar government contracts with his various companies.&nbsp;The Pentagon’s adoption of Grok and other AI technologies aligns with Trump’s push for increased AI integration in government functions, aiming to maintain a technological edge over global adversaries. However, Musk’s involvement with the Pentagon raises further questions about the intersection of government influence, private enterprise, and national security. As Musk’s influence continues to grow, so does the scrutiny over how his AI tools will shape the future of government operations. (With inputs from agencies)

The deal between xAI and the US Department of Defense signals the Pentagon’s broader strategy to incorporate advanced AI technologies into national security operations, a key priority for the Biden administration. 

Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence (AI) company, xAI, has secured a significant $200 million contract with the US Department of Defense (DoD) to provide its AI chatbot, Grok, for government use. This move signals the Pentagon’s broader strategy to incorporate advanced AI technologies into national security operations, a key priority for the Biden administration. Announced on July 14, the contract falls under xAI’s new “Grok for Government” suite, designed specifically for use by federal, state, and local government agencies. Grok 4, the latest version of the chatbot, will be central to this rollout, promising advanced AI tools for national security and critical scientific applications. These tools include deep search capabilities, custom models tailored for national security needs, and AI-driven systems to enhance healthcare and other government services. Through the General Services Administration (GSA), every US government agency now has access to purchase xAI’s products, making Grok available for a wide range of uses. The DoD and other federal agencies are expected to deploy these advanced AI solutions to accelerate missions, from intelligence operations to public health initiatives. This partnership with xAI places the company alongside other tech giants such as OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, each securing similar contracts worth up to $200 million. Controversy over antisemitic remarks and government data access Despite the enormous potential of the contract, the deal comes amid controversy surrounding Grok’s recent behaviour. Recently Grok was widely criticised for spouting antisemitic content, including self-references to Adolf Hitler. Musk, who oversees xAI, attributed the problem to Grok being “too compliant” with user input on his social media platform, X. The company has since updated Grok to address these issues, assuring users that inappropriate posts are being removed. The controversy raised serious questions about the reliability and safety of AI systems used in sensitive government operations, especially those involving national security. The incident underscored the risks of AI systems being trained on user-generated content, particularly when it comes to sensitive topics like global conflict and hate speech. Nevertheless, the Department of Defense is moving ahead with its contract with xAI, focusing on the capabilities of Grok and its potential to strengthen national security. This partnership also opens the door for more government access to the vast amounts of data generated by Musk’s social media platform, X, a matter of concern for privacy advocates. Musk’s expanding government portfolio amid political tensions Musk’s growing ties with the US government come at a time of strained relations with President Donald Trump. Musk previously served as a senior adviser to Trump and was appointed to head the Department of Government Efficiency (Doge), a cost-cutting initiative. However, he resigned from the post in May following disagreements over Trump’s spending and tax policies. Despite this fallout, Musk still enjoys a plethora of multi-million dollar government contracts with his various companies. The Pentagon’s adoption of Grok and other AI technologies aligns with Trump’s push for increased AI integration in government functions, aiming to maintain a technological edge over global adversaries. However, Musk’s involvement with the Pentagon raises further questions about the intersection of government influence, private enterprise, and national security. As Musk’s influence continues to grow, so does the scrutiny over how his AI tools will shape the future of government operations. (With inputs from agencies)

The deal between xAI and the US Department of Defense signals the Pentagon’s broader strategy to incorporate advanced AI technologies into national security operations, a key priority for the Biden administration.&nbsp;

Pentagon signs $200 million deal with Musk’s xAI amid controversy over Grok's antisemitic remarks

Global smartphone shipments grew just 1 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, signalling a cautious consumer mood as US tariff threats and broader economic uncertainty weigh on spending, especially for cheaper models.&nbsp;According to preliminary data from research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) cited by Reuters on Monday, worldwide shipments reached 295.2 million units between April and June, slowing from 1.5 per cent growth in the previous quarter.<h2>Tariff-driven uncertainty bites into demand</h2>IDC analysts say the threat of US tariffs is dampening consumer confidence across multiple markets. Buyers are becoming more selective, delaying upgrades, or cutting spending on low-end devices most sensitive to price. “In the face of ongoing political challenges, the impact of war, and the complexities posed by tariffs, the 1 per cent growth in the smartphone market stands as a critical indicator that the market is poised to return to growth,” Anthony Scarsella, research director for Client Devices at IDC, told Reuters.&nbsp;Nabila Popal, IDC’s senior research director, noted that tariffs and economic jitters are hitting the budget end of the market hardest. “Economic uncertainty tends to compress demand at the lower end of the market, where price sensitivity is highest. As a result, low-end Android is witnessing a crunch weighing down overall market growth.”<h2>China slowdown drags on global demand</h2>China, the world’s biggest smartphone market, was a particular weak spot in the second quarter. Subsidies meant to boost sales fell short of expectations, and overall demand contracted. Apple, despite heavy promotional efforts, saw its shipments dip by 1 per cent in China during the quarter, IDC data showed, according to Reuters.&nbsp;IDC has previously warned that tariffs between the US and China could spill over into weaker consumer sentiment globally. In May, the firm cut its forecast for 2025 global smartphone shipment growth to 0.6 per cent, down from an earlier 2.3 per cent, explicitly citing tariff-driven economic headwinds.<h2>Industry strategy: Fewer units, higher prices</h2>Facing a slowdown in unit sales, smartphone brands are pushing to maintain revenues by moving customers to higher price points. According to Reuters, IDC said manufacturers are adding premium features like AI tools even in lower-priced models to encourage buyers to spend more, hoping to offset the crunch in volume.&nbsp;This strategy is especially crucial in a market where low-end Android models are suffering the sharpest demand decline. While the strategy helps margins, it also risks pricing out the most cost-sensitive buyers.<h2>Samsung leads growth, Apple holds steady</h2>Despite the broad slowdown, some brands outperformed. Samsung posted the strongest growth among top manufacturers, shipping 58 million units in the quarter, up 7.9 per cent from the previous year. While, Apple maintained its place as the second-largest seller, with a modest 1.5 per cent increase in shipments globally.&nbsp;IDC analysts said Samsung’s growth was driven in part by its broad portfolio, which includes both premium and mid-tier devices, helping it capture demand across price bands even as overall sales slow.<h2>Looking ahead: muted optimism</h2>IDC’s updated outlook reflects a cautious industry bracing for more uncertainty. The firm sees only 0.6 per cent shipment growth for 2025 overall, with tariff tensions, wars, and fragile consumer confidence all creating a difficult environment for smartphone makers.&nbsp;While some analysts believe the market is poised for recovery in the longer term, the short-term picture is defined by geopolitical risk and shifting consumer priorities, making premium feature differentiation even more important for brands hoping to sustain sales.&nbsp;

While Samsung led quarterly growth at 7.9%, Apple shipments were flat in China. IDC forecasts just 0.6% growth for the full year, citing persistent geopolitical and economic headwinds.

Global smartphone shipments grew just 1 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, signalling a cautious consumer mood as US tariff threats and broader economic uncertainty weigh on spending, especially for cheaper models. According to preliminary data from research firm International Data Corporation (IDC) cited by Reuters on Monday, worldwide shipments reached 295.2 million units between April and June, slowing from 1.5 per cent growth in the previous quarter. Tariff-driven uncertainty bites into demand IDC analysts say the threat of US tariffs is dampening consumer confidence across multiple markets. Buyers are becoming more selective, delaying upgrades, or cutting spending on low-end devices most sensitive to price. “In the face of ongoing political challenges, the impact of war, and the complexities posed by tariffs, the 1 per cent growth in the smartphone market stands as a critical indicator that the market is poised to return to growth,” Anthony Scarsella, research director for Client Devices at IDC, told Reuters. Nabila Popal, IDC’s senior research director, noted that tariffs and economic jitters are hitting the budget end of the market hardest. “Economic uncertainty tends to compress demand at the lower end of the market, where price sensitivity is highest. As a result, low-end Android is witnessing a crunch weighing down overall market growth.” China slowdown drags on global demand China, the world’s biggest smartphone market, was a particular weak spot in the second quarter. Subsidies meant to boost sales fell short of expectations, and overall demand contracted. Apple, despite heavy promotional efforts, saw its shipments dip by 1 per cent in China during the quarter, IDC data showed, according to Reuters. IDC has previously warned that tariffs between the US and China could spill over into weaker consumer sentiment globally. In May, the firm cut its forecast for 2025 global smartphone shipment growth to 0.6 per cent, down from an earlier 2.3 per cent, explicitly citing tariff-driven economic headwinds. Industry strategy: Fewer units, higher prices Facing a slowdown in unit sales, smartphone brands are pushing to maintain revenues by moving customers to higher price points. According to Reuters, IDC said manufacturers are adding premium features like AI tools even in lower-priced models to encourage buyers to spend more, hoping to offset the crunch in volume. This strategy is especially crucial in a market where low-end Android models are suffering the sharpest demand decline. While the strategy helps margins, it also risks pricing out the most cost-sensitive buyers. Samsung leads growth, Apple holds steady Despite the broad slowdown, some brands outperformed. Samsung posted the strongest growth among top manufacturers, shipping 58 million units in the quarter, up 7.9 per cent from the previous year. While, Apple maintained its place as the second-largest seller, with a modest 1.5 per cent increase in shipments globally. IDC analysts said Samsung’s growth was driven in part by its broad portfolio, which includes both premium and mid-tier devices, helping it capture demand across price bands even as overall sales slow. Looking ahead: muted optimism IDC’s updated outlook reflects a cautious industry bracing for more uncertainty. The firm sees only 0.6 per cent shipment growth for 2025 overall, with tariff tensions, wars, and fragile consumer confidence all creating a difficult environment for smartphone makers. While some analysts believe the market is poised for recovery in the longer term, the short-term picture is defined by geopolitical risk and shifting consumer priorities, making premium feature differentiation even more important for brands hoping to sustain sales.

Global smartphone shipments rose just 1% in Q2 2025, a sign of fragile consumer sentiment amid escalating US tariff threats and global economic uncertainty. IDC reports that low-end Android models are under pressure, especially in price-sensitive markets like China.

Global smartphone shipment growth hits 1% in Q2 amid US tariff worries