At least 298,000 people could die in the event of a mega quake in the Nankai Trough, a government estimate in Japan has forecast. The government's earthquake task force revised its estimate for casualties on Monday (Mar 31), even as the death toll in last week's Myanmar earthquake crossed 1,700.

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Why is Japan preparing for Nankai Trough mega earthquake?

Nankai Trough, where two tectonic plates meet in the Pacific Ocean, has been the epicentre of some major earthquakes in the past. It is located south of the Nankaidō region of Japan's island of Honshu.

Japan is an earthquake-prone region. Past quakes had triggered tsunamis, the worst recorded one being the 2011 quake-tsunami. The 2011 disaster,  the Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, was one of the most powerful globally. It had a magnitude of 9.0 or 9.1 and led to the Fukushima nuclear plant meltdown. 

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Earthquake drills are a common sight in Japan. The Japanese government and relevant authorities have been making efforts over the years to reduce the damage and loss of life in the event of future quakes.

The estimates on the possible megaquake in Nankai Trough is an effort in this direction.


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Nankai Trough mega quake projections in detail

The current death toll projection of 298,000 is, in fact, a downward revision since the first estimates made in 2012. This still falls below the goal set by the government in 2014 to reduce the death toll by 80 per cent.

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A magnitude 9 quake on a winter night in the Tokai region would see deaths in the prefectures of Shizuoka (101,000), Miyazaki (33,000) and Mie  (29,000), said the government estimate.

The new estimates said the evacuees could rise from 9.5 million projected in 2012 to 12.3 million. This is around 10 per cent of Japan's population. 

How will the mega quake feel like in Japan?

Out of the 298,000 deaths, 215,000 would be caused by a tsunami, as only 20 per cent of people would be able to evacuate immediately. 

How many lives can be saved will depend on how fast people are evacuated. A 70 per cent increase in evacuation speed can reduce the death toll to 94,000 from tsunami.

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It is estimated that 30 per cent for affected areas will see flooding at the height of  30 centimetres.

The overall death toll is not expected to decline significantly despite seawalls and tsunami evacuation facilities, Kyodo news agency reported citing government data.

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In a first, the government also projected up to 52,000 "disaster-related deaths" due to subsequent health hazards.

The government is implementing a disaster response plan, which includes the creation of a new agency for disaster prevention in 2026.