European and US stock markets rebounded Wednesday, helped by reports that China would accept a partial <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-china-trade-talks-to-resume-thursday-white-house-254346">trade deal with the US</a> in key talks this week.

The dollar was mixed while the pound steadied after yet more Brexit-fuelled volatility.

Crude oil prices, which had rallied over one per cent as <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/turkeys-military-operation-in-syria-what-does-ankara-wants-255040">Turkey launched an offensive against Kurdish</a> militants in northern Syria, trimmed gains after data showed US oil output at record levels and stocks rising.

China remains open to a limited trade deal as long as US President Donald Trump imposes no more tariffs, Bloomberg News and the Financial Times reported, citing people close to the upcoming talks.

In return, Beijing would offer non-core concessions such as purchases of US agricultural products, the reports added.

"This is likely contributing to the gains we're seeing in Europe... but unless the US is also willing to accept a limited deal -- and nothing currently suggests they are -- it may not lead to anything," noted Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda trading group.&nbsp;

"Traders are jumping at the prospect of good news at the moment but there's been so many false dawns in these negotiations, this may just be the latest," he told AFP.

With less than a week to go before the next round of punitive tariffs is due to hit, Beijing's top trade envoy Liu He will Thursday meet US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

"Liu He is coming with real offers, it's not an empty visit," the FT quoted a source as saying.&nbsp;

"The Chinese are ready to de-escalate," the source, briefed on the talks, added.&nbsp;

Asian stock markets had mostly closed lower on Wednesday ahead of the reports of possible progress in the talks, which could extend into Friday and with Trump present.

Asia tracked losses in Wall Street and across Europe from Tuesday as investors fretted over signs the global economy is slowing.

The International Monetary Fund has forecast the weakest growth in a decade owing to the long-running tariff disputes.

With economic data increasingly weak, the fresh hopes sparked by the reports for Thursday's talks provided some much-needed support.&nbsp;

"But overall stock markets are still stuck in a violent see-saw... as investors try to position themselves ahead of the (talks)," IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said.

Meanwhile, oil prices shot 1.6 per cent higher in European afternoon trading as Turkey began an offensive against Kurdish militants in northern Syria.&nbsp;

They later fell back on data from the Energy Information Administration showed production hitting a new record high while stocks rose more than expected.

"It is a little worrying that inventories are rising despite lower prices, as it suggests that demand is weak," said market analyst David Madden at CMC Markets UK.

Crude prices then later pushed higher once again.

- Key figures around 1530 GMT -

London - FTSE 100: UP 0.3 per cent at 7,166.50 points (close)

Paris - CAC 40: UP 0.8 per cent at 5,499.14 (close)

Frankfurt - DAX 30: UP 1.0 per cent at 12,094.26 (close)

EURO STOXX 50: UP 0.8 per cent at 3,459.50&nbsp;

New York - Dow: UP 0.5 per cent at 26,295.86&nbsp;

Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2218 from $1.2213 at 2040 GMT

Euro/pound: UP at 89.85 pence from 89.69 pence

Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0979 from $1.0955

Dollar/yen: UP at 107.39 yen from 107.07 yen

Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.6 per cent at 21,456.38 (close)

Hong Kong - Hang Seng: DOWN 0.8 per cent at 25,682.81 (close)

Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.4 per cent at 2,924.86 (close)

Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.4 per cent at $59.05 per barrel

West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.6 per cent at $53.49 per barrel 
&nbsp;

European and US stock markets rebounded Wednesday, helped by reports that China would accept a partial trade deal with the US in key talks this week. The dollar was mixed while the pound steadied after yet more Brexit-fuelled volatility.

European and US stock markets rebounded Wednesday, helped by reports that China would accept a partial trade deal with the US in key talks this week. The dollar was mixed while the pound steadied after yet more Brexit-fuelled volatility. Crude oil prices, which had rallied over one per cent as Turkey launched an offensive against Kurdish militants in northern Syria, trimmed gains after data showed US oil output at record levels and stocks rising. China remains open to a limited trade deal as long as US President Donald Trump imposes no more tariffs, Bloomberg News and the Financial Times reported, citing people close to the upcoming talks. In return, Beijing would offer non-core concessions such as purchases of US agricultural products, the reports added. "This is likely contributing to the gains we're seeing in Europe... but unless the US is also willing to accept a limited deal -- and nothing currently suggests they are -- it may not lead to anything," noted Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda trading group. "Traders are jumping at the prospect of good news at the moment but there's been so many false dawns in these negotiations, this may just be the latest," he told AFP. With less than a week to go before the next round of punitive tariffs is due to hit, Beijing's top trade envoy Liu He will Thursday meet US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. "Liu He is coming with real offers, it's not an empty visit," the FT quoted a source as saying. "The Chinese are ready to de-escalate," the source, briefed on the talks, added. Asian stock markets had mostly closed lower on Wednesday ahead of the reports of possible progress in the talks, which could extend into Friday and with Trump present. Asia tracked losses in Wall Street and across Europe from Tuesday as investors fretted over signs the global economy is slowing. The International Monetary Fund has forecast the weakest growth in a decade owing to the long-running tariff disputes. With economic data increasingly weak, the fresh hopes sparked by the reports for Thursday's talks provided some much-needed support. "But overall stock markets are still stuck in a violent see-saw... as investors try to position themselves ahead of the (talks)," IG chief market analyst Chris Beauchamp said. Meanwhile, oil prices shot 1.6 per cent higher in European afternoon trading as Turkey began an offensive against Kurdish militants in northern Syria. They later fell back on data from the Energy Information Administration showed production hitting a new record high while stocks rose more than expected. "It is a little worrying that inventories are rising despite lower prices, as it suggests that demand is weak," said market analyst David Madden at CMC Markets UK. Crude prices then later pushed higher once again. - Key figures around 1530 GMT - London - FTSE 100: UP 0.3 per cent at 7,166.50 points (close) Paris - CAC 40: UP 0.8 per cent at 5,499.14 (close) Frankfurt - DAX 30: UP 1.0 per cent at 12,094.26 (close) EURO STOXX 50: UP 0.8 per cent at 3,459.50 New York - Dow: UP 0.5 per cent at 26,295.86 Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2218 from $1.2213 at 2040 GMT Euro/pound: UP at 89.85 pence from 89.69 pence Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0979 from $1.0955 Dollar/yen: UP at 107.39 yen from 107.07 yen Tokyo - Nikkei 225: DOWN 0.6 per cent at 21,456.38 (close) Hong Kong - Hang Seng: DOWN 0.8 per cent at 25,682.81 (close) Shanghai - Composite: UP 0.4 per cent at 2,924.86 (close) Brent North Sea crude: UP 1.4 per cent at $59.05 per barrel West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.6 per cent at $53.49 per barrel

Stocks recover on US-China trade deal talks optimism

Gold rose to its highest in more than a week on Monday, supported by Middle East tensions and uncertainty over US-China trade talks, while palladium hit an all-time high.

Spot gold rose 0.2 per cent to $1,519.56 per ounce at 0818 GMT per ounce, touching a high since September 12.

US gold futures rose 0.8 &nbsp;per cent to $1,527.20.

"No significant news is coming out of the trade war until and unless we have some clarity on the negotiations, gold will be supported," said Hareesh V, head of commodity research at Geojit Financial Services.

A US-China trade breakthrough seemed unlikely after President Donald Trump told reporters on Friday he was "not looking" for a partial deal and Chinese officials cancelled goodwill visits to US farmers.

But both sides later published positive statements. The US Trade Representative's office described last week's talks as "productive" and China's Commerce Ministry called them "constructive." October's high-level talks remain on track.

"On an immediate basis, gold is trading between the range of$1,465-$1,550. If the trade talks fail gold may rally to $1,660 or even higher," Hareesh said.

The bullion has risen about 18 per cent so far this year.

Tensions remained elevated in the Middle East after Washington ordered more troops to the Gulf region to strengthen Saudi Arabia's air and missile defences, following an attack on the kingdom's oil facilities. The United States has imposed more sanctions on Iran, penalizing Iran's central bank.

Saudi Arabia will appeal to a global gathering in New York this week for concerted action to punish and deter Iran after the strikes.

The dollar was nearly flat against a basket of currencies, while most Asian share markets slipped on Monday.

Holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 1.2 per cent to 894.15 tonnes on Friday.

COMEX gold speculators raised net long position by 14,150 contracts to 261,878 in the week to September 17, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

Spot palladium rose 0.8 per cent to $1,655 per ounce, after hitting a record high at $1,664.34 earlier in the session.

"Healthy demand, constrained supply and challenging liquidity conditions are likely driving prices higher," UBS strategist Joni Teves wrote in a note.

"A breakdown of US-China trade talks, deterioration in economic data and a pullback inequity from the highs present downside risks for palladium over the remainder of the year."

Silver nearly 2 per cent to $18.33 per ounce and platinum rose 0.8 per cent to $953.05 per ounce.

Gold rose to its highest in more than a week on Monday, supported by Middle East tensions and uncertainty over US-China trade talks, while palladium hit an all-time high.

Gold rose to its highest in more than a week on Monday, supported by Middle East tensions and uncertainty over US-China trade talks, while palladium hit an all-time high. Spot gold rose 0.2 per cent to $1,519.56 per ounce at 0818 GMT per ounce, touching a high since September 12. US gold futures rose 0.8 per cent to $1,527.20. "No significant news is coming out of the trade war until and unless we have some clarity on the negotiations, gold will be supported," said Hareesh V, head of commodity research at Geojit Financial Services. A US-China trade breakthrough seemed unlikely after President Donald Trump told reporters on Friday he was "not looking" for a partial deal and Chinese officials cancelled goodwill visits to US farmers. But both sides later published positive statements. The US Trade Representative's office described last week's talks as "productive" and China's Commerce Ministry called them "constructive." October's high-level talks remain on track. "On an immediate basis, gold is trading between the range of$1,465-$1,550. If the trade talks fail gold may rally to $1,660 or even higher," Hareesh said. The bullion has risen about 18 per cent so far this year. Tensions remained elevated in the Middle East after Washington ordered more troops to the Gulf region to strengthen Saudi Arabia's air and missile defences, following an attack on the kingdom's oil facilities. The United States has imposed more sanctions on Iran, penalizing Iran's central bank. Saudi Arabia will appeal to a global gathering in New York this week for concerted action to punish and deter Iran after the strikes. The dollar was nearly flat against a basket of currencies, while most Asian share markets slipped on Monday. Holdings at SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, rose 1.2 per cent to 894.15 tonnes on Friday. COMEX gold speculators raised net long position by 14,150 contracts to 261,878 in the week to September 17, according to the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Spot palladium rose 0.8 per cent to $1,655 per ounce, after hitting a record high at $1,664.34 earlier in the session. "Healthy demand, constrained supply and challenging liquidity conditions are likely driving prices higher," UBS strategist Joni Teves wrote in a note. "A breakdown of US-China trade talks, deterioration in economic data and a pullback inequity from the highs present downside risks for palladium over the remainder of the year." Silver nearly 2 per cent to $18.33 per ounce and platinum rose 0.8 per cent to $953.05 per ounce.

Gold hits more than one-week high on Gulf tensions

Asian stocks gained on Friday, joining a global trend as investors took heart from firm US economic data plans hopes a meeting between US and Chinese negotiators next month signals an easing in trade tensions.

The improvement in investors' appetite for risk reduced demand for safe havens such as government bonds and the yen, however.

In early European trade, the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures and German DAX futures were little changed, while Britain's FTSE futures inched down 0.1 per cent.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.4 per cent, putting it on track for a 2.2 per cent weekly gain - which would make it the best week since mid-June.

The Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.1 per cent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.2 per cent, with some earlier gains trimmed after rating agency Fitch downgraded the city's credit rating following months of unrest.

Australian stocks gained 0.5 per cent, South Korea's KOSPI climbed 0.1 per cent and Japan's Nikkei advanced 0.4 per cent.

Global equity markets welcomed news that the United States and China agreed on Thursday to hold high-level talks early in October, raising hopes for substantial progress in de-escalating their long, bitter trade conflict.

Upbeat US data on Thursday also helped sentiment.

US private payrolls increased in August at their fastest pace in four months, according to ADP National Employment Report. Separately the US services industry rebounded last month to its fastest expansion since February, according to the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI).

"The strong US data are the main part of the latest turn in markets as they are key factors impacting equities and US yields, therefore determining how long this 'risk on' phase will last," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo.

On Thursday, the Dow added 1.4 per cent, the S&amp;P 500 climbed 1.3 per cent and Nasdaq rose 1.75 per cent.

Ishikawa at IG Securities said a US August jobs report ou later in the global day "will get more attention than usual as it could further fuel the risk-on phase, which in turn would boost the dollar."

The non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 158,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7 per cent.

The dollar stood at 107.000 yen after climbing to a one-month high of 107.235 overnight. The greenback has gained about 0.7 per cent against the safe-haven yen.

The pound hovered near a six-week peak of $1.2353 scaled the previous day on hopes that Britain could avoid exiting the European Union without a deal.

Sterling had fallen to a three-year low of $1.1959 midweek after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stoked fears of a no-deal Brexit.

The euro was steady at $1.1039 after rising 0.5 per cent overnight, when it was lifted by sterling's bounce.

The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was little changed at 98.369 after pulling back from a one-week low of 98.085 the previous day, thanks to a rise in US Treasury yields.

US Treasuries fell in price and their yields rebounded from multi-year lows as investors moved out of safety assets into equities.

The 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.536 per cent, having risen from a three-year trough of 1.428 per cent plumbed midweek as soft economic data and Sino-US trade worries stoked global recession concerns.

"The recent panic in markets was excessive. And if a sustained reversal of fragile sentiment gets under way, US equities will test fresh record highs and a corresponding drop in bond prices will present an good bargain hunting opportunity," said Eiichiro Tani, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities.

Japan's 10-year government bond yield climbed 2.5 basis points to minus 0.250 per cent, putting some distance between a three-year low of minus 0.295% set earlier this week.

The Australian dollar traded close to a one-month peak of $0.6830. It has gained more than 1 per cent this week amid the thaw in US-China trade tensions and tempered prospects for an immediate interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia.

Brent crude oil futures were little changed at $60.97 per barrel, losing some steam after posting strong gains over the past two sessions.

Brent had climbed to a one-month peak of $62.40 per barrel on Thursday on a decline in US crude inventories and eased trade war worries.

Asian stocks gained on Friday, joining a global trend as investors took heart from firm US economic data plans hopes a meeting between US and Chinese negotiators next month signals an easing in trade tensions.

Asian stocks gained on Friday, joining a global trend as investors took heart from firm US economic data plans hopes a meeting between US and Chinese negotiators next month signals an easing in trade tensions. The improvement in investors' appetite for risk reduced demand for safe havens such as government bonds and the yen, however. In early European trade, the pan-region Euro Stoxx 50 futures and German DAX futures were little changed, while Britain's FTSE futures inched down 0.1 per cent. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan added 0.4 per cent, putting it on track for a 2.2 per cent weekly gain - which would make it the best week since mid-June. The Shanghai Composite Index edged up 0.1 per cent. Hong Kong's Hang Seng was up 0.2 per cent, with some earlier gains trimmed after rating agency Fitch downgraded the city's credit rating following months of unrest. Australian stocks gained 0.5 per cent, South Korea's KOSPI climbed 0.1 per cent and Japan's Nikkei advanced 0.4 per cent. Global equity markets welcomed news that the United States and China agreed on Thursday to hold high-level talks early in October, raising hopes for substantial progress in de-escalating their long, bitter trade conflict. Upbeat US data on Thursday also helped sentiment. US private payrolls increased in August at their fastest pace in four months, according to ADP National Employment Report. Separately the US services industry rebounded last month to its fastest expansion since February, according to the Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI). "The strong US data are the main part of the latest turn in markets as they are key factors impacting equities and US yields, therefore determining how long this 'risk on' phase will last," said Junichi Ishikawa, senior FX strategist at IG Securities in Tokyo. On Thursday, the Dow added 1.4 per cent, the S&P 500 climbed 1.3 per cent and Nasdaq rose 1.75 per cent. Ishikawa at IG Securities said a US August jobs report ou later in the global day "will get more attention than usual as it could further fuel the risk-on phase, which in turn would boost the dollar." The non-farm payroll report is expected to show an increase of 158,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7 per cent. The dollar stood at 107.000 yen after climbing to a one-month high of 107.235 overnight. The greenback has gained about 0.7 per cent against the safe-haven yen. The pound hovered near a six-week peak of $1.2353 scaled the previous day on hopes that Britain could avoid exiting the European Union without a deal. Sterling had fallen to a three-year low of $1.1959 midweek after British Prime Minister Boris Johnson stoked fears of a no-deal Brexit. The euro was steady at $1.1039 after rising 0.5 per cent overnight, when it was lifted by sterling's bounce. The dollar index against a basket of six major currencies was little changed at 98.369 after pulling back from a one-week low of 98.085 the previous day, thanks to a rise in US Treasury yields. US Treasuries fell in price and their yields rebounded from multi-year lows as investors moved out of safety assets into equities. The 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.536 per cent, having risen from a three-year trough of 1.428 per cent plumbed midweek as soft economic data and Sino-US trade worries stoked global recession concerns. "The recent panic in markets was excessive. And if a sustained reversal of fragile sentiment gets under way, US equities will test fresh record highs and a corresponding drop in bond prices will present an good bargain hunting opportunity," said Eiichiro Tani, chief strategist at Daiwa Securities. Japan's 10-year government bond yield climbed 2.5 basis points to minus 0.250 per cent, putting some distance between a three-year low of minus 0.295% set earlier this week. The Australian dollar traded close to a one-month peak of $0.6830. It has gained more than 1 per cent this week amid the thaw in US-China trade tensions and tempered prospects for an immediate interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Brent crude oil futures were little changed at $60.97 per barrel, losing some steam after posting strong gains over the past two sessions. Brent had climbed to a one-month peak of $62.40 per barrel on Thursday on a decline in US crude inventories and eased trade war worries.

Asia shares rise on trade talks hope, firm US data; safe havens sold

Global stocks dropped on Tuesday, hurt by US-China trade frictions while the British pound fell to its lowest since January 2017 amid political uncertainty as Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried to stymie lawmakers' efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.7 per cent. India, closed on Monday, led losses, with the benchmark dropping 1 per cent following worse-than-expected economic growth data on Friday.

China's mainland shares were fractionally lower while Japan's Nikkei inched up 0.1 per cent.

European shares are expected to dip, with pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.09 per cent.

In an escalation of their trade war, the United States on Sunday began imposing 15 per cent&nbsp;tariffs on a variety of Chinese goods, and China began imposing new duties on US crude oil.

Although US President Donald Trump has said both sides would still meet for talks later this month, tensions show little sign of abating.

China said on Monday it lodged a complaint against the United States at the World Trade Organisation over US import duties, trashing the latest tariff actions as violating the consensus reached by leaders of China and the United States in a meeting in Osaka.

"We have so many problems around the world, starting from the US-China trade war and Brexit. But investors appear to be getting used to be exposed to them," said Hiroyuki Ueno, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management

"No one really thinks Washington and Beijing will solve the issues. But as long as the US economy keeps going, stock prices will have limited downside," he said.

US manufacturing survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) due at 1400 GMT Tuesday is a major focus for investors.

Although US manufacturing activity has been slowing in recent months, the ISM's index has so far stayed above 50, pointing to growth in the sector.

US bond yields rose a tad on profit-taking after a market holiday in the United States on Monday.

The 10-year US Treasuries yield rose 2.5 basis points to 1.532 per cent, off a three-year low of 1.443 per cent touched last week. The yield dropped 51.5 basis points last month, the biggest monthly drop since August 2011.

In the currency market, sterling dropped as much as 0.58 per cent to $1.1993, its lowest level since January 2017, extending Monday's 0.85 per cent fall.

Prime Minister Johnson implicitly warned lawmakers on Monday that he would seek an election on Oct 14 if they tied his hands on Brexit, ruling out ever countenancing a further delay to Britain's departure from the European Union.

On Tuesday, lawmakers will decide whether to move Britain one step closer to a snap election when they vote on the first stage of their plan to block Johnson from pursuing a no-deal Brexit.

"Depending on further developments in UK politics, the pound could see sharp moves in the coming week or two. We think it could fall to as low as $1.13 this month," said Sumino Kamei, senior currency strategist at MUFG Bank.

Uncertainties over Brexit have already hit the UK economy, with a survey by the IHS Markit/CIPS showing British manufacturing contracted last month at the fastest rate in seven years.

The picture is not much better in Europe, and the European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates further into negative levels next week to cushion the blow, pressuring the euro.

The common currency fell 0.25 per cent to a two-year low of $1.0939. The two-year German government bond yield has dipped to minus 0.919 per cent on Monday, near its record low around minus 0.964&nbsp; per cent&nbsp;hit in early 2017.

The offshore Chinese yuan dropped to a record low of 7.1975 per dollar on Tuesday morning while the Australian dollar

traded down 0.15 per cent at $0.6705, cutting some losses after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold.

Still, the Aussie stayed within a stone's throw from a decade-low of $0.66775 hit last month.

Argentine bond prices fell to record lows on Monday and the official and black-market pesos diverged after the country imposed capital controls in a bid to stem a currency rout that is sharpening the risk of default.

The peso closed 0.88 per cent stronger in official markets but closed 0.79 per cent weaker in the black market at 63.5 per dollar.

Oil prices were also dented by concerns over the trade war. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 0.47 per cent to $54.84 per barrel. International benchmark Brent futures dipped 0.05 per cent to $58.63 per barrel.

Global stocks dropped on Tuesday, hurt by US-China trade frictions while the British pound fell to its lowest since January 2017 amid political uncertainty as Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried to stymie lawmakers' efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit.

Global stocks dropped on Tuesday, hurt by US-China trade frictions while the British pound fell to its lowest since January 2017 amid political uncertainty as Prime Minister Boris Johnson tried to stymie lawmakers' efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan shed 0.7 per cent. India, closed on Monday, led losses, with the benchmark dropping 1 per cent following worse-than-expected economic growth data on Friday. China's mainland shares were fractionally lower while Japan's Nikkei inched up 0.1 per cent. European shares are expected to dip, with pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 futures down 0.09 per cent. In an escalation of their trade war, the United States on Sunday began imposing 15 per cent tariffs on a variety of Chinese goods, and China began imposing new duties on US crude oil. Although US President Donald Trump has said both sides would still meet for talks later this month, tensions show little sign of abating. China said on Monday it lodged a complaint against the United States at the World Trade Organisation over US import duties, trashing the latest tariff actions as violating the consensus reached by leaders of China and the United States in a meeting in Osaka. "We have so many problems around the world, starting from the US-China trade war and Brexit. But investors appear to be getting used to be exposed to them," said Hiroyuki Ueno, senior strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Asset Management "No one really thinks Washington and Beijing will solve the issues. But as long as the US economy keeps going, stock prices will have limited downside," he said. US manufacturing survey by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) due at 1400 GMT Tuesday is a major focus for investors. Although US manufacturing activity has been slowing in recent months, the ISM's index has so far stayed above 50, pointing to growth in the sector. US bond yields rose a tad on profit-taking after a market holiday in the United States on Monday. The 10-year US Treasuries yield rose 2.5 basis points to 1.532 per cent, off a three-year low of 1.443 per cent touched last week. The yield dropped 51.5 basis points last month, the biggest monthly drop since August 2011. In the currency market, sterling dropped as much as 0.58 per cent to $1.1993, its lowest level since January 2017, extending Monday's 0.85 per cent fall. Prime Minister Johnson implicitly warned lawmakers on Monday that he would seek an election on Oct 14 if they tied his hands on Brexit, ruling out ever countenancing a further delay to Britain's departure from the European Union. On Tuesday, lawmakers will decide whether to move Britain one step closer to a snap election when they vote on the first stage of their plan to block Johnson from pursuing a no-deal Brexit. "Depending on further developments in UK politics, the pound could see sharp moves in the coming week or two. We think it could fall to as low as $1.13 this month," said Sumino Kamei, senior currency strategist at MUFG Bank. Uncertainties over Brexit have already hit the UK economy, with a survey by the IHS Markit/CIPS showing British manufacturing contracted last month at the fastest rate in seven years. The picture is not much better in Europe, and the European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates further into negative levels next week to cushion the blow, pressuring the euro. The common currency fell 0.25 per cent to a two-year low of $1.0939. The two-year German government bond yield has dipped to minus 0.919 per cent on Monday, near its record low around minus 0.964 per cent hit in early 2017. The offshore Chinese yuan dropped to a record low of 7.1975 per dollar on Tuesday morning while the Australian dollar traded down 0.15 per cent at $0.6705, cutting some losses after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold. Still, the Aussie stayed within a stone's throw from a decade-low of $0.66775 hit last month. Argentine bond prices fell to record lows on Monday and the official and black-market pesos diverged after the country imposed capital controls in a bid to stem a currency rout that is sharpening the risk of default. The peso closed 0.88 per cent stronger in official markets but closed 0.79 per cent weaker in the black market at 63.5 per dollar. Oil prices were also dented by concerns over the trade war. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude lost 0.47 per cent to $54.84 per barrel. International benchmark Brent futures dipped 0.05 per cent to $58.63 per barrel.

Asia stocks dented by trade war, Brexit showdown paralyses pound

Wall Street stocks finished little changed on Wednesday following a choppy session as a plunge in treasury bond yields early in the day underscored worries about a weakening global economy.

After a bruising start, US stocks gradually pushed higher throughout the day while Treasury yields recovered from their lows. Two of the three major indices finished in positive territory.

Decisions by Asian central banks to cut interest rates and weak German data "reminded investors that economic growth in several other regions of the world remain at risk as the US and China trade dispute drags on," said CFRA strategist Lindsey Bell in a note.

"While uncertainty is driving upside in defensive asset classes, we don't think stocks should be abandoned at this time. A near-term recession is unlikely."

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 26,007.07, down 0.1 per cent but more than 560 points above its session low.

The broad-based S&amp;P 500 added 0.1 per cent at 2,883.98, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.4 per cent to 7,862.83.

US stocks have been under pressure in August as optimism over a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has been replaced by unease at US President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on China and China's response, which has included halting US agricultural purchases.

Banking shares were big losers as the weakening US interest rate outlook crimps the profit outlook. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America all lost around two per cent or more.

Disney also had a bad day, losing 4.9 per cent after missing earnings forecasts.&nbsp;

But CVS Health shot up 7.5 per cent as the pharmacy chain lifted its profit forecasts. The results also lifted rival Walgreens Boots Alliance, which gained 2.0 per cent. 
&nbsp;

Wall Street stocks finished little changed on Wednesday following a choppy session as a plunge in treasury bond yields early in the day underscored worries about a weakening global economy.

Wall Street stocks finished little changed on Wednesday following a choppy session as a plunge in treasury bond yields early in the day underscored worries about a weakening global economy. After a bruising start, US stocks gradually pushed higher throughout the day while Treasury yields recovered from their lows. Two of the three major indices finished in positive territory. Decisions by Asian central banks to cut interest rates and weak German data "reminded investors that economic growth in several other regions of the world remain at risk as the US and China trade dispute drags on," said CFRA strategist Lindsey Bell in a note. "While uncertainty is driving upside in defensive asset classes, we don't think stocks should be abandoned at this time. A near-term recession is unlikely." The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 26,007.07, down 0.1 per cent but more than 560 points above its session low. The broad-based S&P 500 added 0.1 per cent at 2,883.98, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.4 per cent to 7,862.83. US stocks have been under pressure in August as optimism over a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has been replaced by unease at US President Donald Trump's latest tariffs on China and China's response, which has included halting US agricultural purchases. Banking shares were big losers as the weakening US interest rate outlook crimps the profit outlook. JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America all lost around two per cent or more. Disney also had a bad day, losing 4.9 per cent after missing earnings forecasts. But CVS Health shot up 7.5 per cent as the pharmacy chain lifted its profit forecasts. The results also lifted rival Walgreens Boots Alliance, which gained 2.0 per cent.

US stocks recover from early swoon amid global growth angst

Asian shares slid to 6-1/2-month lows on Monday and the yuan plunged as a rapid escalation in the Sino-US trade war drove nervous investors to safe-havens such as the yen, bonds and gold.

US President Donald Trump abruptly decided on Thursday to slap 10% tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports, stunning markets and ending a month-long trade truce. China vowed on Friday to fight back.

In response, China's yuan weakened beyond the key 7-per-dollar threshold in a move that threatens to lead to massive capital outflows.

"We could see a more prolonged period of risk aversion," analysts at Singapore-based TD Securities wrote in a note.

"We think the latest development reiterates our view that trade will remain a lingering headwind for the economy and business investment in particular."

Asian shares sold off broadly with every single market posting steep losses.

Japan's Nikkei tumbled almost 2% to the lowest since early June, while Australian shares slipped about 1% to spend their fourth straight session in the red. South Korea's Kospi tumbled 1.2% to hit the lowest since December 2016.

That left MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan down 1.7% to 495.68, a level not seen since late January and marking the longest stretch of losses since October 2018.

In China, shares opened lower, with the blue-chip index skidding 1% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined 2.2%.

E-Mini futures for the S&amp;P500 fell 1% in Asian trading.

Oil prices were also pulled down again on demand worries.

The grim mood followed declines on Wall Street on Friday with MSCI's gauge of world stocks posting its largest weekly loss of the year.

The trade war between the world's two largest economies has already disrupted global supply chains and slowed economic growth.

The abrupt escalation capped a critical week for global markets after the US&nbsp;Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated interest rate cut and played down expectations of further easing.

However, investors were not buying Fed Chair Jerome Powell's claim that the 25-basis-point rate reduction was a mere "mid-cycle adjustment to policy".

Futures are now pricing in deeper cuts than before last week's Fed meeting. The terminal US rate is now seen at 1.22%, 93 basis points below the current effective rate.

TD is forecasting five more cuts from the Fed, amounting to 125 basis points of easing, over next year.

Expectations of further monetary policy easing sent the dollar skidding. It slipped to a seven-month trough of 105.78 against the Japanese yen while the dollar index against a basket of six major rivals inched lower to 97.91 after two straight days of losses.

The Australian dollar, a liquid proxy for emerging market assets, slipped to a fresh seven-month trough at $0.6748 after losing 1.6% last week.

The yen and the Swiss franc were boosted by safe-haven demand from the escalating trade tensions. Trump is also eyeing tariffs on the European Union but is yet to make any formal announcements.

The euro held firm after two days of gains against the dollar at $1.1119.

Sterling hovered near 2017 lows at $1.2159, pressured by concerns about Britain exiting the European Union without a deal in place. The pound has been whiplashed since late last month when Boris Johnson, a figurehead for the "leave" campaign in the 2016 Brexit referendum, became the country's prime minister.

Safe-haven assets have been in vogue with yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes at 1.7890%, their lowest since Trump's election in November 2016, from 1.8550% on Friday.

German 10-year government bond yields on Friday dropped to an all-time low of -0.502% and the country's entire government bond yield curve turning negative for the first time ever.

Spot gold firmed to $1,451.61, within striking distance of a recent high of $1,452.60.

Oil extended losses with US crude off 26 cents at 55.40 and Brent down 35 cents at $61.54.

Asian shares slid to 6-1/2-month lows on Monday and the yuan plunged as a rapid escalation in the Sino-US trade war drove nervous investors to safe-havens such as the yen, bonds and gold.

Asian shares slid to 6-1/2-month lows on Monday and the yuan plunged as a rapid escalation in the Sino-US trade war drove nervous investors to safe-havens such as the yen, bonds and gold. US President Donald Trump abruptly decided on Thursday to slap 10% tariffs on $300 billion in Chinese imports, stunning markets and ending a month-long trade truce. China vowed on Friday to fight back. In response, China's yuan weakened beyond the key 7-per-dollar threshold in a move that threatens to lead to massive capital outflows. "We could see a more prolonged period of risk aversion," analysts at Singapore-based TD Securities wrote in a note. "We think the latest development reiterates our view that trade will remain a lingering headwind for the economy and business investment in particular." Asian shares sold off broadly with every single market posting steep losses. Japan's Nikkei tumbled almost 2% to the lowest since early June, while Australian shares slipped about 1% to spend their fourth straight session in the red. South Korea's Kospi tumbled 1.2% to hit the lowest since December 2016. That left MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan down 1.7% to 495.68, a level not seen since late January and marking the longest stretch of losses since October 2018. In China, shares opened lower, with the blue-chip index skidding 1% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index declined 2.2%. E-Mini futures for the S&P500 fell 1% in Asian trading. Oil prices were also pulled down again on demand worries. The grim mood followed declines on Wall Street on Friday with MSCI's gauge of world stocks posting its largest weekly loss of the year. The trade war between the world's two largest economies has already disrupted global supply chains and slowed economic growth. The abrupt escalation capped a critical week for global markets after the US Federal Reserve delivered a widely anticipated interest rate cut and played down expectations of further easing. However, investors were not buying Fed Chair Jerome Powell's claim that the 25-basis-point rate reduction was a mere "mid-cycle adjustment to policy". Futures are now pricing in deeper cuts than before last week's Fed meeting. The terminal US rate is now seen at 1.22%, 93 basis points below the current effective rate. TD is forecasting five more cuts from the Fed, amounting to 125 basis points of easing, over next year. Expectations of further monetary policy easing sent the dollar skidding. It slipped to a seven-month trough of 105.78 against the Japanese yen while the dollar index against a basket of six major rivals inched lower to 97.91 after two straight days of losses. The Australian dollar, a liquid proxy for emerging market assets, slipped to a fresh seven-month trough at $0.6748 after losing 1.6% last week. The yen and the Swiss franc were boosted by safe-haven demand from the escalating trade tensions. Trump is also eyeing tariffs on the European Union but is yet to make any formal announcements. The euro held firm after two days of gains against the dollar at $1.1119. Sterling hovered near 2017 lows at $1.2159, pressured by concerns about Britain exiting the European Union without a deal in place. The pound has been whiplashed since late last month when Boris Johnson, a figurehead for the "leave" campaign in the 2016 Brexit referendum, became the country's prime minister. Safe-haven assets have been in vogue with yields on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes at 1.7890%, their lowest since Trump's election in November 2016, from 1.8550% on Friday. German 10-year government bond yields on Friday dropped to an all-time low of -0.502% and the country's entire government bond yield curve turning negative for the first time ever. Spot gold firmed to $1,451.61, within striking distance of a recent high of $1,452.60. Oil extended losses with US crude off 26 cents at 55.40 and Brent down 35 cents at $61.54.

Asian stocks skid to 6-1/2-month lows as US-China trade row shakes markets

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/no-sense-for-us-to-exercise-maximum-pressure-says-china-as-trade-meeting-ends-239682">US and Chinese trade negotiators</a> agreed to meet again in the United States in September after holding "frank, highly efficient and constructive" talks in Shanghai on Wednesday, state media said.

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer met with Vice Premier Liu He in the Chinese financial hub for the first face-to-face negotiations since a trade war truce was declared last month.

"The two sides conducted frank, highly efficient and constructive in-depth exchanges on major issues of common interest in the economic and trade field," according to the official Xinhua news agency.

Negotiators also discussed "the issue of China increasing its purchases of US agricultural products according to its domestic needs" and the US creating "favourable conditions for these purchases", Xinhua said.

Shortly after the US negotiators arrived in Shanghai on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump lambasted China on Twitter, accusing Beijing of not buying agricultural products as it was supposed to do.

Trump also warned China against waiting until the November 2020 US presidential election to make a deal because "if &amp; when I win, the deal that they get will be much tougher than what we are negotiating now ... or no deal at all".

US and Chinese trade negotiators agreed to meet again in the United States in September after holding "frank, highly efficient and constructive" talks in Shanghai on Wednesday, state media said.

US and Chinese trade negotiators agreed to meet again in the United States in September after holding "frank, highly efficient and constructive" talks in Shanghai on Wednesday, state media said. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer met with Vice Premier Liu He in the Chinese financial hub for the first face-to-face negotiations since a trade war truce was declared last month. "The two sides conducted frank, highly efficient and constructive in-depth exchanges on major issues of common interest in the economic and trade field," according to the official Xinhua news agency. Negotiators also discussed "the issue of China increasing its purchases of US agricultural products according to its domestic needs" and the US creating "favourable conditions for these purchases", Xinhua said. Shortly after the US negotiators arrived in Shanghai on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump lambasted China on Twitter, accusing Beijing of not buying agricultural products as it was supposed to do. Trump also warned China against waiting until the November 2020 US presidential election to make a deal because "if & when I win, the deal that they get will be much tougher than what we are negotiating now ... or no deal at all".

US, Chinese trade negotiators to meet again in September: Report

By Bill Durodie

On June 28 and 29, the G20 summit will convene for the 14th time in Osaka, Japan. This gathering of leaders from the world’s leading economies, including the EU, plus invited guests and international organisations, ought to offer an important moment for mature reflection and collective coordination regarding the future needs of the world economy at a difficult time.

Instead, it is likely to descend either into directly confrontational rhetoric or, alternatively, empty promises and vague platitudes that avoid its mission to be the “premier forum for international economic cooperation”. The focus could end up being on more peripheral matters such as climate change, counter-terrorism, health and migration that are perceived of as being less contentious but should not be fundamental concerns of the G20.

The G20 is no stranger to crisis. It emerged from the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis that led G7 finance ministers (representing almost half of world GDP) to establish a wider group in order to engage with the major emerging economies. Then, in the wake of the 2007-08 global financial crisis, the group was further elevated to become a forum for heads of state.

In 2019, it is the continuing dispute between the US and China over trade that appears to loom largest. But this ought not be the main focus of the G20 either. As is well understood, trade wars are symptoms of underlying economic problems rather than their cause. The main focus ought to be on addressing those.

Trade and tariffs are not the fundamental drivers of growth and prosperity. Rather, these derive from domestic productivity levels in the making of goods and services that are, in their turn, driven by investment. To trade effectively, the key is to have something worth selling in the first place.

Tariffs, regulation, barriers

Unfortunately, the protectionist measures that had hastened the advent of World War II, and that were dismantled subsequently through the establishment of the GATT/WTO, led instead to a growing proliferation of non-tariff or technical barriers to trade. Rather than invest in new industries, older ones were sustained artificially behind a chaff of regulatory standards, intellectual property laws, state subsidies and public procurement policies.

Accordingly, assertions that we have been living through a time marked by a so-called “rules-based international trading system” fall very wide of the mark. All the evidence points to systematic attempts by the key players – and the United States in particular – to subvert any supposed “liberal world order”, both economically and militarily.

Now it may be, of course, that President Trump – who is certainly not the first US, or other, world leader to engage in such embargoes against China – understands full well that to compete internationally as a successful exporter it is the ability to produce efficiently at home that matters more than trade deals. Some of his pronouncements have reflected as much, looking to put pressure on manufacturers, such as Harley-Davidson and Nike, to bring their production back to its origins.

But, irrespective, the adverse effects of this approach are evident for all to see. Many American firms have warned the US Department of Commerce that such measures hurt both businesses and consumers alike. The latter invariably bear the brunt of any related price increases.

The IMF has cut its world economic growth forecast in accordance. And anyway, many enterprises will simply relocate elsewhere, such as to Vietnam, which is not currently on the receiving end of such additional duties.

A risky game

The deeper consequences, though, will take more time to become manifest. These include growing differences among the Western powers over how to handle the economic rise of the East.

This was seen recently, through the US stance towards its partners not using the Chinese firm Huawei to develop critical 5G infrastructure, despite its being the leading global player in the field. Such actions could come to damage relations with key allies, such as the UK and Germany.

In this regard, the US is playing a very risky game. With its relations veering towards a potential conflict with Iran, as well as its ongoing disputes with Russia and China, the US may yet come to rue antagonising its friends as well.

Or, at the very least, it may regret making them have to choose between their relations with the US and China. Only this week, the UK chancellor, Phillip Hammond launched the new Shanghai-London Stock Connect that looks set to deepen financial relations by facilitating investment between them.

This, and China’s recent decision not to pursue WTO market economy status, may also point to a growing maturity on its part in relation to such matters. Certainly, its most successful strategy in the past was always to keep a low profile on the international stage and avoid confrontation in foreign affairs, while focusing more on its domestic concerns.

Historically, it has often been extraneous circumstances that have accelerated change in world affairs more than any conscious push. The two powers that dominated each of the last two preceding centuries – the US and UK – did so as much through the decline and imperial overreach of their predecessors as through their own efforts. That, and its underlying crisis of innovation and investment, are what the US leadership would do well to reflect upon most in Osaka.

(Bill Durodie is Professor and Chair of International Relations, University of Bath)

(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/g20-us-china-trade-war-points-to-the-real-crisis-that-global-leaders-must-confront-119359">original article</a>)

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)&nbsp; 
&nbsp;

By Bill Durodie On June 28 and 29, the G20 summit will convene for the 14th time in Osaka, Japan. This gathering of leaders from the world’s leading economies, including the EU, plus invited guests and international organisations, ought to offer an important moment for mature reflection and collective coordination regarding the future needs of the world economy at a difficult time.

By Bill Durodie On June 28 and 29, the G20 summit will convene for the 14th time in Osaka, Japan. This gathering of leaders from the world’s leading economies, including the EU, plus invited guests and international organisations, ought to offer an important moment for mature reflection and collective coordination regarding the future needs of the world economy at a difficult time. Instead, it is likely to descend either into directly confrontational rhetoric or, alternatively, empty promises and vague platitudes that avoid its mission to be the “premier forum for international economic cooperation”. The focus could end up being on more peripheral matters such as climate change, counter-terrorism, health and migration that are perceived of as being less contentious but should not be fundamental concerns of the G20. The G20 is no stranger to crisis. It emerged from the 1997-98 Asian Financial Crisis that led G7 finance ministers (representing almost half of world GDP) to establish a wider group in order to engage with the major emerging economies. Then, in the wake of the 2007-08 global financial crisis, the group was further elevated to become a forum for heads of state. In 2019, it is the continuing dispute between the US and China over trade that appears to loom largest. But this ought not be the main focus of the G20 either. As is well understood, trade wars are symptoms of underlying economic problems rather than their cause. The main focus ought to be on addressing those. Trade and tariffs are not the fundamental drivers of growth and prosperity. Rather, these derive from domestic productivity levels in the making of goods and services that are, in their turn, driven by investment. To trade effectively, the key is to have something worth selling in the first place. Tariffs, regulation, barriers Unfortunately, the protectionist measures that had hastened the advent of World War II, and that were dismantled subsequently through the establishment of the GATT/WTO, led instead to a growing proliferation of non-tariff or technical barriers to trade. Rather than invest in new industries, older ones were sustained artificially behind a chaff of regulatory standards, intellectual property laws, state subsidies and public procurement policies. Accordingly, assertions that we have been living through a time marked by a so-called “rules-based international trading system” fall very wide of the mark. All the evidence points to systematic attempts by the key players – and the United States in particular – to subvert any supposed “liberal world order”, both economically and militarily. Now it may be, of course, that President Trump – who is certainly not the first US, or other, world leader to engage in such embargoes against China – understands full well that to compete internationally as a successful exporter it is the ability to produce efficiently at home that matters more than trade deals. Some of his pronouncements have reflected as much, looking to put pressure on manufacturers, such as Harley-Davidson and Nike, to bring their production back to its origins. But, irrespective, the adverse effects of this approach are evident for all to see. Many American firms have warned the US Department of Commerce that such measures hurt both businesses and consumers alike. The latter invariably bear the brunt of any related price increases. The IMF has cut its world economic growth forecast in accordance. And anyway, many enterprises will simply relocate elsewhere, such as to Vietnam, which is not currently on the receiving end of such additional duties. A risky game The deeper consequences, though, will take more time to become manifest. These include growing differences among the Western powers over how to handle the economic rise of the East. This was seen recently, through the US stance towards its partners not using the Chinese firm Huawei to develop critical 5G infrastructure, despite its being the leading global player in the field. Such actions could come to damage relations with key allies, such as the UK and Germany. In this regard, the US is playing a very risky game. With its relations veering towards a potential conflict with Iran, as well as its ongoing disputes with Russia and China, the US may yet come to rue antagonising its friends as well. Or, at the very least, it may regret making them have to choose between their relations with the US and China. Only this week, the UK chancellor, Phillip Hammond launched the new Shanghai-London Stock Connect that looks set to deepen financial relations by facilitating investment between them. This, and China’s recent decision not to pursue WTO market economy status, may also point to a growing maturity on its part in relation to such matters. Certainly, its most successful strategy in the past was always to keep a low profile on the international stage and avoid confrontation in foreign affairs, while focusing more on its domestic concerns. Historically, it has often been extraneous circumstances that have accelerated change in world affairs more than any conscious push. The two powers that dominated each of the last two preceding centuries – the US and UK – did so as much through the decline and imperial overreach of their predecessors as through their own efforts. That, and its underlying crisis of innovation and investment, are what the US leadership would do well to reflect upon most in Osaka. (Bill Durodie is Professor and Chair of International Relations, University of Bath) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

US-China trade war points to the real crisis that global leaders must confront at G20 Summit

Global trade, geopolitical hotspots around the world and even horse-trading over top EU jobs, G20 leaders have a lot of their plate when they meet from Friday in Osaka.

Here are some of the most pressing issues facing the leaders at the two-day meeting, with the decisive action likely to take place mainly on the sidelines and away from the formal programme.

&nbsp;'Tariffs and trade'

All eyes will be on whether the <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-hopes-to-re-launch-china-trade-talks-will-not-accept-conditions-on-tariffs-230453">US and China,</a> the world's top two economies, can bury the hatchet in their long-running trade war that is causing headwinds for an already fragile global economy.

The two leaders, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, will hold talks on the sidelines of the Osaka summit, their first face-to-face meeting since December at the last G20 in Argentina.

Experts are sceptical that a definitive deal will be struck in Japan, but many believe they may agree on a tariff truce and set a new deadline for a final agreement.

Trade will also feature heavily as a point of conflict in the wider G20 meeting with battles likely over the wording of the final statement -- if the leaders can agree to one.

A G20 finance ministers meeting earlier this month noted in a communique that trade tensions had "intensified" and that risks were "tilted to the downside", but even this statement took 30 hours of hard-fought wrangling.

Letter from Pyongyang

Relations between the United States and North Korea have been in the freezer since a summit in Hanoi in February failed to achieve progress on Pyongyang's nuclear programme.

But a <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/trump-to-visit-south-korea-as-pompeo-raises-hope-for-new-north-korea-talks-after-letter-230158">recent exchange of letters between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un</a> has raised hopes that a third summit could be on the cards, and the US president is travelling to South Korea immediately after the G20.

In this matter too, Xi plays a key role. He will arrive in Osaka fresh from his first visit to Pyongyang and observers expect the Chinese president to pass on a message from Kim to rekindle diplomatic activity.

Some believe the two issues of trade and North Korea could dovetail, with Trump needing Xi's help to solve the nuclear issue that he has trumpeted as a major foreign policy triumph.

Iranian powder keg

With key regional players such as the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia in attendance, the mounting tensions with Iran are certain to be a hot topic of conversation on the sidelines of the meeting.

The G20 host, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, sought to play a mediation role with a historic trip to Tehran, but this was overshadowed by two attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman that Washington blames on Iran.

At the last moment, Trump called off a planned military retaliation for the downing of an unmanned US drone, saying that the estimated death toll of 150 was not proportionate.

Trump trumps everything

Despite hosts Japan desperately trying to focus media attention on its priority issues such as ocean plastic and ageing populations, the US leader's meetings on the sidelines are likely to overshadow everything -- especially planned talks with Russia and Turkey.

Trump is expected to meet Vladimir Putin for face-to-face talks for the first time since July 2018 in Helsinki, where he was attacked for being too conciliatory to the Kremlin strongman amid accusations of Russian meddling in the US election.

Turkey's leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, fresh from a humiliating defeat in a re-run election in Istanbul's mayoral election, is hoping to use good relations with Trump to defuse a row between the NATO allies over Ankara's purchase of Russian missiles.

The US has given Turkey until the end of July to renounce its deal with Moscow for the S-400 missiles or face sanctions, an ultimatum that Ankara has slammed as "inappropriate".

'Brussels horse-trading'

After failing to stitch up a deal for the successor to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker at a summit on Friday, EU leaders have kicked the can down the road to a special meeting in Brussels on June 30.

This happens to be the day after the G20, so most observers expect the senior EU players from Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands to continue the horse-trading in Japan -- although any final deal will have to wait until European soil.

Global trade, geopolitical hotspots around the world and even horse-trading over top EU jobs, G20 leaders have a lot of their plate when they meet from Friday in Osaka.

Global trade, geopolitical hotspots around the world and even horse-trading over top EU jobs, G20 leaders have a lot of their plate when they meet from Friday in Osaka. Here are some of the most pressing issues facing the leaders at the two-day meeting, with the decisive action likely to take place mainly on the sidelines and away from the formal programme. 'Tariffs and trade' All eyes will be on whether the US and China, the world's top two economies, can bury the hatchet in their long-running trade war that is causing headwinds for an already fragile global economy. The two leaders, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, will hold talks on the sidelines of the Osaka summit, their first face-to-face meeting since December at the last G20 in Argentina. Experts are sceptical that a definitive deal will be struck in Japan, but many believe they may agree on a tariff truce and set a new deadline for a final agreement. Trade will also feature heavily as a point of conflict in the wider G20 meeting with battles likely over the wording of the final statement -- if the leaders can agree to one. A G20 finance ministers meeting earlier this month noted in a communique that trade tensions had "intensified" and that risks were "tilted to the downside", but even this statement took 30 hours of hard-fought wrangling. Letter from Pyongyang Relations between the United States and North Korea have been in the freezer since a summit in Hanoi in February failed to achieve progress on Pyongyang's nuclear programme. But a recent exchange of letters between Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has raised hopes that a third summit could be on the cards, and the US president is travelling to South Korea immediately after the G20. In this matter too, Xi plays a key role. He will arrive in Osaka fresh from his first visit to Pyongyang and observers expect the Chinese president to pass on a message from Kim to rekindle diplomatic activity. Some believe the two issues of trade and North Korea could dovetail, with Trump needing Xi's help to solve the nuclear issue that he has trumpeted as a major foreign policy triumph. Iranian powder keg With key regional players such as the United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia in attendance, the mounting tensions with Iran are certain to be a hot topic of conversation on the sidelines of the meeting. The G20 host, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, sought to play a mediation role with a historic trip to Tehran, but this was overshadowed by two attacks on tankers in the Gulf of Oman that Washington blames on Iran. At the last moment, Trump called off a planned military retaliation for the downing of an unmanned US drone, saying that the estimated death toll of 150 was not proportionate. Trump trumps everything Despite hosts Japan desperately trying to focus media attention on its priority issues such as ocean plastic and ageing populations, the US leader's meetings on the sidelines are likely to overshadow everything -- especially planned talks with Russia and Turkey. Trump is expected to meet Vladimir Putin for face-to-face talks for the first time since July 2018 in Helsinki, where he was attacked for being too conciliatory to the Kremlin strongman amid accusations of Russian meddling in the US election. Turkey's leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, fresh from a humiliating defeat in a re-run election in Istanbul's mayoral election, is hoping to use good relations with Trump to defuse a row between the NATO allies over Ankara's purchase of Russian missiles. The US has given Turkey until the end of July to renounce its deal with Moscow for the S-400 missiles or face sanctions, an ultimatum that Ankara has slammed as "inappropriate". 'Brussels horse-trading' After failing to stitch up a deal for the successor to European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker at a summit on Friday, EU leaders have kicked the can down the road to a special meeting in Brussels on June 30. This happens to be the day after the G20, so most observers expect the senior EU players from Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands to continue the horse-trading in Japan -- although any final deal will have to wait until European soil.

Trade and horsetrade: Top five hot-button G20 issues

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/trump-to-visit-south-korea-as-pompeo-raises-hope-for-new-north-korea-talks-after-letter-230158">Trump to visit South Korea as Pompeo raises hope for new North Korea talks after letter</a>

US President Donald Trump will visit South Korea this weekend after an exchange of letters with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un boosted hopes for a resumption of talks aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear program.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/un-security-council-urges-dialogue-end-to-us-iran-tensions-230148">UN Security Council urges dialogue, end to US-Iran tensions as Trump announces new sanctions</a>

The UN Security Council on Monday called for dialogue and measures to end tensions in the Gulf, but Iran rejected talks with the United States after President Donald Trump imposed fresh sanctions.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/india-news/lack-of-predictability-coherence-in-india-us-strategic-relationship-congressman-tells-pompeo-ahead-of-new-delhi-visit-230160">Lack of predictability, coherence in India-US strategic ties: Congressman tells Pompeo ahead of visit</a>

On the eve of his arrival in New Delhi, a top US lawmaker Tuesday told Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that there is lack of predictability and coherence in America's strategic relationship with India.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-china-trade-negotiators-hold-talks-ahead-of-xi-trump-meeting-report-230147">US-China trade negotiators hold talks ahead of Xi-Trump meeting: Report</a>

Top Chinese and US trade negotiators have held telephone talks ahead of a crunch meeting between presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the G20 summit this week, Chinese state media said Tuesday.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/huaweis-us-research-arm-builds-separate-identity-230155">Huawei's US research arm builds separate identity</a>

The US-based research arm of China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd - Futurewei Technologies Inc - has moved to separate its operations from its corporate parent since the US government in May put Huawei on a trade blacklist, according to two people familiar with the matter.

&nbsp;

Trump to visit South Korea as Pompeo raises hope for new North Korea talks after letter US President Donald Trump will visit South Korea this weekend after an exchange of letters with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un boosted hopes for a resumption of talks aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear program.

Trump to visit South Korea as Pompeo raises hope for new North Korea talks after letter US President Donald Trump will visit South Korea this weekend after an exchange of letters with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un boosted hopes for a resumption of talks aimed at ending North Korea's nuclear program. UN Security Council urges dialogue, end to US-Iran tensions as Trump announces new sanctions The UN Security Council on Monday called for dialogue and measures to end tensions in the Gulf, but Iran rejected talks with the United States after President Donald Trump imposed fresh sanctions. Lack of predictability, coherence in India-US strategic ties: Congressman tells Pompeo ahead of visit On the eve of his arrival in New Delhi, a top US lawmaker Tuesday told Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that there is lack of predictability and coherence in America's strategic relationship with India. US-China trade negotiators hold talks ahead of Xi-Trump meeting: Report Top Chinese and US trade negotiators have held telephone talks ahead of a crunch meeting between presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the G20 summit this week, Chinese state media said Tuesday. Huawei's US research arm builds separate identity The US-based research arm of China's Huawei Technologies Co Ltd - Futurewei Technologies Inc - has moved to separate its operations from its corporate parent since the US government in May put Huawei on a trade blacklist, according to two people familiar with the matter.

News brief: Big stories of the day

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-oil-sanctions-wont-go-without-response-iran-213205">Oil jumped more</a> than 3% to above $63 a barrel on Thursday after Iran shot down a US military drone, raising fears of a military confrontation between Tehran and Washington.

Also supporting oil were expectations that the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates at its next meeting, stimulating growth in the world's largest oil-consuming country, and a drop in US crude inventories.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up $1.38 at $63.20 a barrel at 0854 GMT, having risen 3.3% to $63.88 earlier in the session.

The US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.45 to $55.21.

"It's a combination of factors," Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob said of the price rise. "You have more supportive stocks data, the Fed indicating they will cut rates and the shooting down of the drone."

The drone was downed in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz by an Iranian surface-to-air missile, a US official said. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said the drone was flying over southern Iran.

Tension has been rising in the Middle East, home to over 20% of the world's oil output, after attacks on two tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for oil supplies. Washington blamed Tehran for the tanker attacks. Iran denied any role.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/oil-prices-fall-on-surging-us-crude-stockpiles-economic-concerns-220779">Concern </a>about slowing economic growth and a US-China trade dispute has pulled oil lower in recent weeks. Brent reached a 2019 high of $75 in April.

Also propelling oil higher on Thursday was a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories and the prospect of prolonged supply restraint by producer group OPEC and its allies.

After swelling to near two-year highs, US crude stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels last week, compared with analyst expectations for a draw of 1.1 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia agreed this week to meet on July 1-2, ending a month of wrangling about the timing of the meeting.

The coalition known as OPEC+ will discuss whether to extend throughout 2019 a deal on cutting 1.2 million barrels per day of production. The deal expires at the end of this month.

Momentum for an agreement appeared to be building as the United Arab Emirates' energy minister said extending the deal was "logical and reasonable".

Oil jumped more than 3% to above $63 a barrel on Thursday after Iran shot down a US military drone, raising fears of a military confrontation between Tehran and Washington.

Oil jumped more than 3% to above $63 a barrel on Thursday after Iran shot down a US military drone, raising fears of a military confrontation between Tehran and Washington. Also supporting oil were expectations that the US Federal Reserve could cut interest rates at its next meeting, stimulating growth in the world's largest oil-consuming country, and a drop in US crude inventories. Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up $1.38 at $63.20 a barrel at 0854 GMT, having risen 3.3% to $63.88 earlier in the session. The US West Texas Intermediate crude rose $1.45 to $55.21. "It's a combination of factors," Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob said of the price rise. "You have more supportive stocks data, the Fed indicating they will cut rates and the shooting down of the drone." The drone was downed in international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz by an Iranian surface-to-air missile, a US official said. Iran's Revolutionary Guards said the drone was flying over southern Iran. Tension has been rising in the Middle East, home to over 20% of the world's oil output, after attacks on two tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for oil supplies. Washington blamed Tehran for the tanker attacks. Iran denied any role. Concern about slowing economic growth and a US-China trade dispute has pulled oil lower in recent weeks. Brent reached a 2019 high of $75 in April. Also propelling oil higher on Thursday was a larger-than-expected decline in US crude inventories and the prospect of prolonged supply restraint by producer group OPEC and its allies. After swelling to near two-year highs, US crude stocks fell by 3.1 million barrels last week, compared with analyst expectations for a draw of 1.1 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies including Russia agreed this week to meet on July 1-2, ending a month of wrangling about the timing of the meeting. The coalition known as OPEC+ will discuss whether to extend throughout 2019 a deal on cutting 1.2 million barrels per day of production. The deal expires at the end of this month. Momentum for an agreement appeared to be building as the United Arab Emirates' energy minister said extending the deal was "logical and reasonable".

Oil prices surge as Iran shoots down US drone in Gulf

A rise in US visa denials for Chinese academics and intensified scrutiny of alleged links to Beijing over fears of potential espionage are having a chilling effect on long-standing research collaboration, researchers say.

American and Chinese scientists have co-authored thousands of papers each year, far outpacing the output from scientific collaborations between any other two nations, according to a 2018 survey by academic database Nature Index.

But it is getting tougher for researchers to work together on projects and share data for peer review, as American institutions tighten rules for accepting foreign funding and intensify vetting of foreign partners, several researchers told AFP.

The pressure is the result of a clampdown by Washington on what it describes as espionage and technology theft through academic contacts, with the White House warning last year that Chinese nationals studying or working in the United States could be manipulated or forced to "serve Beijing's military and strategic ambitions".

In one of the latest countermeasures, the US Department of Energy -- which conducts advanced research on everything from supercomputers to nuclear weapons -- blocked its scientists from participating in a foreign government's talent recruitment programmes, citing national security and competition concerns.

Its order, seen by AFP, did not mention a specific country, but officials pointed to Beijing's lucrative 'Thousand Talents' programme.

The initiative offers non-Chinese, and Chinese working abroad, high pay to deliver top-level technology to China.&nbsp;

The increased mistrust is bound to have an impact on research collaboration, academics and experts say.

An increasing number of young Chinese scholars are told they cannot participate in a project for security reasons, said an official at Pennsylvania State University, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the topic.

"Research collaboration between China and the US will be severely disrupted by the trade war-turned-technology war, which essentially is a talent war," said Cao Cong, professor of innovation studies at Nottingham University's China campus in the city of Ningbo.

Beijing has committed billions of dollars in recent years to narrow China's science and technology gap with the United States, Cao said.

But China is still "heavily dependent" on the US for technology transfers and training, he added, and the "cut off" will have an impact in coming years.

Visa Troubles

The rising number of visa denials have prompted a warning from China's education ministry that students and academics could have their study or research plans foiled by refusals or delays.

One in eight Chinese applicants seeking US visas for academic or research purposes between January and March this year had difficulties securing them, a marked increase from last year, education ministry official Xu Yongji said.

Star quantum physicist Pan Jianwei was unable to attend a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in February, where he was to collect the prestigious Newcomb Cleveland Prize, due to visa delays.

"I waited for four months before I got a visa in March," Pan told AFP. When it finally arrived, the award ceremony had long passed.

Yi Rao, a prominent Chinese neurobiologist who had worked at Harvard and Northwestern universities in the past, said his application for a US visa to attend a workshop by the National Science Foundation was denied last July without an explanation.

A State Department official said she could not discuss specific visa cases due to US privacy laws.

The State Department has said the increased scrutiny was prompted by rising number of students who were co-opted by foreign intelligence while in the United States.

China is by far the biggest source of international students and scholars on US campuses, with 360,000 attendings last year.

Atmosphere of Suspicion

The cooling of ties is also complicating Beijing's efforts to recruit top Chinese and foreign talent, after US intelligence officials in December said the 'Thousand Talents' programme facilitated the theft of American technology and intellectual property.

Tim Byrnes -- an Australian physicist who won nearly one million yuan ($144,000) from the programme in 2016 for a quantum computing lab at New York University's Shanghai campus -- said he now finds himself in a "precarious position".

"Possibly, some people awarded the Thousand Talents might not be able to apply for grants in the US in future due to fears of leaking intellectual property," Byrnes said.

Since it was launched in 2008, the programme has attracted more than 7,000 Chinese and foreign researchers to China -- mostly from the US -- according to its website.

But Byrnes said he was not asked to share any of his findings with the Chinese government.

"Everything we do is published in academic journals. Everything is disclosed not just to China but to the whole world," he said.

"But the current atmosphere of suspicion is threatening the openness of science."

A rise in US visa denials for Chinese academics and intensified scrutiny of alleged links to Beijing over fears of potential espionage are having a chilling effect on long-standing research collaboration, researchers say.

A rise in US visa denials for Chinese academics and intensified scrutiny of alleged links to Beijing over fears of potential espionage are having a chilling effect on long-standing research collaboration, researchers say. American and Chinese scientists have co-authored thousands of papers each year, far outpacing the output from scientific collaborations between any other two nations, according to a 2018 survey by academic database Nature Index. But it is getting tougher for researchers to work together on projects and share data for peer review, as American institutions tighten rules for accepting foreign funding and intensify vetting of foreign partners, several researchers told AFP. The pressure is the result of a clampdown by Washington on what it describes as espionage and technology theft through academic contacts, with the White House warning last year that Chinese nationals studying or working in the United States could be manipulated or forced to "serve Beijing's military and strategic ambitions". In one of the latest countermeasures, the US Department of Energy -- which conducts advanced research on everything from supercomputers to nuclear weapons -- blocked its scientists from participating in a foreign government's talent recruitment programmes, citing national security and competition concerns. Its order, seen by AFP, did not mention a specific country, but officials pointed to Beijing's lucrative 'Thousand Talents' programme. The initiative offers non-Chinese, and Chinese working abroad, high pay to deliver top-level technology to China. The increased mistrust is bound to have an impact on research collaboration, academics and experts say. An increasing number of young Chinese scholars are told they cannot participate in a project for security reasons, said an official at Pennsylvania State University, who requested anonymity given the sensitivity of the topic. "Research collaboration between China and the US will be severely disrupted by the trade war-turned-technology war, which essentially is a talent war," said Cao Cong, professor of innovation studies at Nottingham University's China campus in the city of Ningbo. Beijing has committed billions of dollars in recent years to narrow China's science and technology gap with the United States, Cao said. But China is still "heavily dependent" on the US for technology transfers and training, he added, and the "cut off" will have an impact in coming years. Visa Troubles The rising number of visa denials have prompted a warning from China's education ministry that students and academics could have their study or research plans foiled by refusals or delays. One in eight Chinese applicants seeking US visas for academic or research purposes between January and March this year had difficulties securing them, a marked increase from last year, education ministry official Xu Yongji said. Star quantum physicist Pan Jianwei was unable to attend a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in February, where he was to collect the prestigious Newcomb Cleveland Prize, due to visa delays. "I waited for four months before I got a visa in March," Pan told AFP. When it finally arrived, the award ceremony had long passed. Yi Rao, a prominent Chinese neurobiologist who had worked at Harvard and Northwestern universities in the past, said his application for a US visa to attend a workshop by the National Science Foundation was denied last July without an explanation. A State Department official said she could not discuss specific visa cases due to US privacy laws. The State Department has said the increased scrutiny was prompted by rising number of students who were co-opted by foreign intelligence while in the United States. China is by far the biggest source of international students and scholars on US campuses, with 360,000 attendings last year. Atmosphere of Suspicion The cooling of ties is also complicating Beijing's efforts to recruit top Chinese and foreign talent, after US intelligence officials in December said the 'Thousand Talents' programme facilitated the theft of American technology and intellectual property. Tim Byrnes -- an Australian physicist who won nearly one million yuan ($144,000) from the programme in 2016 for a quantum computing lab at New York University's Shanghai campus -- said he now finds himself in a "precarious position". "Possibly, some people awarded the Thousand Talents might not be able to apply for grants in the US in future due to fears of leaking intellectual property," Byrnes said. Since it was launched in 2008, the programme has attracted more than 7,000 Chinese and foreign researchers to China -- mostly from the US -- according to its website. But Byrnes said he was not asked to share any of his findings with the Chinese government. "Everything we do is published in academic journals. Everything is disclosed not just to China but to the whole world," he said. "But the current atmosphere of suspicion is threatening the openness of science."

Amid heightened US-China tensions, science suffers collateral damage

Asian shares got off to a shaky start on Monday as investors were cautious ahead of a closely-watched Federal Reserve meeting, while political tensions in the Middle East and Hong Kong kept risk-appetite in check.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan opened slightly lower and was last little changed, while Japan's Nikkei average stood flat.

Wall Street stocks ended lower on Friday as investors turned cautious before this week's Fed meeting, while a warning from Broadcom on slowing demand weighed on chipmakers and added to US-China trade worries.

"The week ahead is likely to provide some clarification for investors on three fronts that have been a source of uncertainty. The FOMC meeting, with updated forecasts, is centre stage," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex.

A private gauge on eurozone's manufacturing sector as well as US-China trade frictions will also be watched closely, Chandler said.

Financial markets have been sideswiped since a sudden escalation in Sino-US&nbsp;trade tensions in early May, with growing anxiety among investors that a protracted standoff could tip the global economy into recession.

Adding to the tensions between the world's two biggest economies, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Sunday that US President Donald Trump would raise the issue of Hong Kong's human rights with China's President Xi Jinping at a potential meeting of the two leaders at the G20 summit in Japan later this month.

On Sunday, hundreds of thousands of black-clad protesters in Hong Kong demanded that Beijing-backed city leader Carrie Lam step down over her handling of a bill that would have allowed extradition to China, resulted her to issue a rare apology.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East added another layer of uncertainty for investors after the United States blamed Iran for attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman last week.

Hopes that global central banks will keep the money spigot open have helped to temper some of the fears, and all eyes are on the Fed's two-day meeting starting on Tuesday.

Strong US retail sales data on Friday rolled back expectations of a Fed rate cut at this week's meeting to 21.7%, from 28.3% on Thursday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. But bets of an easing at the July meeting remain high at 85%.

The Bank of Japan also meets this week and is widely expected to reinforce its commitment to retain a massive stimulus program for some time to come.

The retail report also sent short-dated US Treasury yields higher, flattening the yield curve.

Benchmark 10-year notes was last at 2.091%, while two-year bond yield edged up, shrinking the spread between two- and 10-year yields to 23.6 basis points compared to more than 30 earlier this month.

A Reuters poll showed a growing number of economists expect the Fed policymakers to cut interest rates this year, although the majority still see it holding steady.

In currency markets, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies climbed to 97.583 on Friday, its highest level in almost two weeks, after the US retail sales data eased fears that the world's largest economy is slowing sharply.

The index last stood at 97.511, while the euro fetched $1.1220, near the lower end of its weekly trading range.

Oil extended gains on Monday after the attacks on two oil tankers last week raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, but prices remained on track for a weekly loss on fears that trade disputes will dent global oil demand.

Brent futures rose 0.2% to $62.13 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 0.2% to $52.60.

Spot gold eased 0.1% to $1,340.25 an ounce after hitting a 14-month peak on Friday.

Bitcoin jumped overnight to $9,391.85, its highest level in 13 months. It was last quoted at $9150.15.

Asian shares got off to a shaky start on Monday as investors were cautious ahead of a closely-watched Federal Reserve meeting, while political tensions in the Middle East and Hong Kong kept risk-appetite in check.

Asian shares got off to a shaky start on Monday as investors were cautious ahead of a closely-watched Federal Reserve meeting, while political tensions in the Middle East and Hong Kong kept risk-appetite in check. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan opened slightly lower and was last little changed, while Japan's Nikkei average stood flat. Wall Street stocks ended lower on Friday as investors turned cautious before this week's Fed meeting, while a warning from Broadcom on slowing demand weighed on chipmakers and added to US-China trade worries. "The week ahead is likely to provide some clarification for investors on three fronts that have been a source of uncertainty. The FOMC meeting, with updated forecasts, is centre stage," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. A private gauge on eurozone's manufacturing sector as well as US-China trade frictions will also be watched closely, Chandler said. Financial markets have been sideswiped since a sudden escalation in Sino-US trade tensions in early May, with growing anxiety among investors that a protracted standoff could tip the global economy into recession. Adding to the tensions between the world's two biggest economies, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told Fox News on Sunday that US President Donald Trump would raise the issue of Hong Kong's human rights with China's President Xi Jinping at a potential meeting of the two leaders at the G20 summit in Japan later this month. On Sunday, hundreds of thousands of black-clad protesters in Hong Kong demanded that Beijing-backed city leader Carrie Lam step down over her handling of a bill that would have allowed extradition to China, resulted her to issue a rare apology. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East added another layer of uncertainty for investors after the United States blamed Iran for attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman last week. Hopes that global central banks will keep the money spigot open have helped to temper some of the fears, and all eyes are on the Fed's two-day meeting starting on Tuesday. Strong US retail sales data on Friday rolled back expectations of a Fed rate cut at this week's meeting to 21.7%, from 28.3% on Thursday, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. But bets of an easing at the July meeting remain high at 85%. The Bank of Japan also meets this week and is widely expected to reinforce its commitment to retain a massive stimulus program for some time to come. The retail report also sent short-dated US Treasury yields higher, flattening the yield curve. Benchmark 10-year notes was last at 2.091%, while two-year bond yield edged up, shrinking the spread between two- and 10-year yields to 23.6 basis points compared to more than 30 earlier this month. A Reuters poll showed a growing number of economists expect the Fed policymakers to cut interest rates this year, although the majority still see it holding steady. In currency markets, the dollar index against a basket of six major currencies climbed to 97.583 on Friday, its highest level in almost two weeks, after the US retail sales data eased fears that the world's largest economy is slowing sharply. The index last stood at 97.511, while the euro fetched $1.1220, near the lower end of its weekly trading range. Oil extended gains on Monday after the attacks on two oil tankers last week raised concerns about potential supply disruptions, but prices remained on track for a weekly loss on fears that trade disputes will dent global oil demand. Brent futures rose 0.2% to $62.13 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures rose 0.2% to $52.60. Spot gold eased 0.1% to $1,340.25 an ounce after hitting a 14-month peak on Friday. Bitcoin jumped overnight to $9,391.85, its highest level in 13 months. It was last quoted at $9150.15.

Asian shares wobble on trade, political tensions; focus turns to Fed meet

Indian equities this week will be guided by factors like geopolitical developments, <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/imf-warns-us-china-trade-war-will-jeopardize-2019-global-growth-221117">US-China trade</a> negotiations and Fed interest rate decision amid lack of major domestic triggers, say analysts.

Investors will also keep a track on the domestic trade situation following reports that India has decided to impose retaliatory tariffs on 29 US products with effect from June 16.

The government had on June 21, 2018, decided to impose these duties in retaliation to the US decision of significantly hiking customs duties on certain steel and aluminium products. India had extended the deadline for imposition of duties multiple times in the hope that some solution would emerge.

"Markets are currently dancing to the global tunes and we do not see this changing any time soon, in absence of any major local trigger," said Jayant Manglik, President - Retail Distribution, Religare Broking.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said: "Ripple effect from a weak global market while premium valuation and the slow economy is hurting the market.

&nbsp;A continuous exchange of words between US and Tehran regarding the oil tanker attack, progress of US-China trade war, Fed policy outcome on 19th June and progress of monsoon will be closely watched by the investors."

Global markets were spooked last week after two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman, leading to ratcheting up of tensions in the Middle East.

Crude oil prices, movement of rupee against the dollar and foreign fund investment trend would be crucial for the markets, experts added.

"Negative news flow from the finance sector on loan repayment is dampening the investors' sentiment which can be a trigger for a bigger correction before the budget session," said Romesh Tiwari, Head of Research, capitalism.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/business-economy/bse-sensex-slips-over-50-points-nifty-by-14-points-on-weak-global-cues-201226">The BSE Sensex</a> stayed on the back foot for the third straight session Friday as investors dialled down equity exposure amid high valuations and a fresh spell of uncertainty in the global markets.

The markets suffered a sudden sell-off towards the fag-end following reports of India decided to impose retaliatory tariffs on 29 US products. 
During the last week, the Sensex fell 163.83 points or 0.41 per cent, to close at 39,452.07.&nbsp;

Indian equities this week will be guided by factors like geopolitical developments, US-China trade negotiations and Fed interest rate decision amid lack of major domestic triggers, say analysts.

Indian equities this week will be guided by factors like geopolitical developments, US-China trade negotiations and Fed interest rate decision amid lack of major domestic triggers, say analysts. Investors will also keep a track on the domestic trade situation following reports that India has decided to impose retaliatory tariffs on 29 US products with effect from June 16. The government had on June 21, 2018, decided to impose these duties in retaliation to the US decision of significantly hiking customs duties on certain steel and aluminium products. India had extended the deadline for imposition of duties multiple times in the hope that some solution would emerge. "Markets are currently dancing to the global tunes and we do not see this changing any time soon, in absence of any major local trigger," said Jayant Manglik, President - Retail Distribution, Religare Broking. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said: "Ripple effect from a weak global market while premium valuation and the slow economy is hurting the market. A continuous exchange of words between US and Tehran regarding the oil tanker attack, progress of US-China trade war, Fed policy outcome on 19th June and progress of monsoon will be closely watched by the investors." Global markets were spooked last week after two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman, leading to ratcheting up of tensions in the Middle East. Crude oil prices, movement of rupee against the dollar and foreign fund investment trend would be crucial for the markets, experts added. "Negative news flow from the finance sector on loan repayment is dampening the investors' sentiment which can be a trigger for a bigger correction before the budget session," said Romesh Tiwari, Head of Research, capitalism. The BSE Sensex stayed on the back foot for the third straight session Friday as investors dialled down equity exposure amid high valuations and a fresh spell of uncertainty in the global markets. The markets suffered a sudden sell-off towards the fag-end following reports of India decided to impose retaliatory tariffs on 29 US products. During the last week, the Sensex fell 163.83 points or 0.41 per cent, to close at 39,452.07.

Fed rate decision, trade scenario to set market trend: Analysts

Rising for a third straight session, the BSE benchmark Sensex Tuesday added another 166 points on the back of strong buying in banking, metal and energy stocks amid positive global cues.

After rallying nearly 300 points during the day, the BSE gauge settled 165.94 points or 0.42 per cent, higher at 39,950.46. The index hit an intra-day high of 40,066.31 and a low of 40,066.31.

Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty rose 42.90 points, or 0.36 per cent, to settle at 11,965.60. During the day, the index touched a high of 12,000.35 and a low of 11,904.35.

Top gainers in the Sensex pack were Tata Motors, ONGC, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank and Vedanta rising up to 2.71 per cent.

On the other hand, Sun Pharma, M&amp;M, L&amp;T, Coal India and HUL fell up to 3 per cent.

Sectorally, metal, oil and gas and banking indices rose as much as 1.33 per cent.

Markets traded on a positive note following favourable global cues in Asian markets as sentiments turned upbeat after the US announced a deal with Mexico and investors turned hopeful of further progress on US-China trade talks, said Narendra Solanki, Head-Fundamental Research (Investment Services) - AVP Equity Research, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers.

In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index rallied 2.58 per cent, Hang Seng ended 0.76 per cent higher, Nikkei rose 0.33 per cent and Kospi gained 0.59 per cent.

Bourses in Europe were also trading higher in their early deals. 
On the currency front, the Indian rupee appreciated 21 paise to 69.44 against the US dollar.

Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell marginally to USD 62.24 per barrel.

Rising for a third straight session, the BSE benchmark Sensex Tuesday added another 166 points on the back of strong buying in banking, metal and energy stocks amid positive global cues.

Rising for a third straight session, the BSE benchmark Sensex Tuesday added another 166 points on the back of strong buying in banking, metal and energy stocks amid positive global cues. After rallying nearly 300 points during the day, the BSE gauge settled 165.94 points or 0.42 per cent, higher at 39,950.46. The index hit an intra-day high of 40,066.31 and a low of 40,066.31. Similarly, the broader NSE Nifty rose 42.90 points, or 0.36 per cent, to settle at 11,965.60. During the day, the index touched a high of 12,000.35 and a low of 11,904.35. Top gainers in the Sensex pack were Tata Motors, ONGC, Yes Bank, IndusInd Bank and Vedanta rising up to 2.71 per cent. On the other hand, Sun Pharma, M&M, L&T, Coal India and HUL fell up to 3 per cent. Sectorally, metal, oil and gas and banking indices rose as much as 1.33 per cent. Markets traded on a positive note following favourable global cues in Asian markets as sentiments turned upbeat after the US announced a deal with Mexico and investors turned hopeful of further progress on US-China trade talks, said Narendra Solanki, Head-Fundamental Research (Investment Services) - AVP Equity Research, Anand Rathi Shares and Stock Brokers. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index rallied 2.58 per cent, Hang Seng ended 0.76 per cent higher, Nikkei rose 0.33 per cent and Kospi gained 0.59 per cent. Bourses in Europe were also trading higher in their early deals. On the currency front, the Indian rupee appreciated 21 paise to 69.44 against the US dollar. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell marginally to USD 62.24 per barrel.

Sensex furthers gains for 3rd session on robust global cues

Against the backdrop of worsening trade conflicts, US job creation slowed sharply in May, adding to evidence the economy is weakening and raising expectations the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates soon.

Hiring dried up in major industries and wage growth stagnated, and because job growth was worse than previously reported in March and April, hiring was essentially flat last month, the Labor Department reported Friday.

With the China trade conflict increasing and a new battle with Mexico set to begin Monday, with dire implications for a host of industries, the unexpectedly steep job slowdown in May heightened fears the world's largest economy is beginning to sputter.

US employers added only 75,000 net new positions last month, less than half the 180,000 economists had been expecting, with sudden drops in hiring in healthcare, education and construction.&nbsp;

The federal government payroll also shrank unexpectedly by 15,000 workers.&nbsp;

The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 per cent, matching April's level, the lowest since 1969.

As he ploughs ahead with his aggressive and unorthodox trade agenda, President Donald Trump has been comforted that vigorous job gains and historically low unemployment provide a buffer against retaliation in tariff battles with major trading partners that have hit the US manufacturing sector in particular.

The US economy in July will break the record for its longest-ever expansion but economists expect it to slow a notch in 2019 and the odds of a recession have also increased.

The average job gains for the past three months was 151,000 compared to the 12-month average of 196,000, signalling a slowdown in hiring, also attributed to the difficulty of finding workers.

Kevin Hassett, the White House's departing chief economist, conceded Friday that the numbers were weaker than expected, but he pointed to special factors.

"There really were pretty serious weather effects. There's all this flooding in the Midwest... a lot of the ports had to stop taking traffic," he told CNBC.

Hassett estimated weather could have cut the monthly hiring figure by 40,000 positions but the result was still underwhelming.

"It's a little bit disappointing but it does not really cause to change our outlook for the year," he said.

The sudden weakness has raised expectations the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rates this year -- possibly twice and as soon as this month -- to support growth after four increases in 2018.

Sand in the gears

Fed policymakers have sent signals in recent days they are open to easing, and are on the lookout for signs of weakness.&nbsp;

"These data make it easier for the Fed to ease either this month or next, if the trade tensions intensify and the stock market drops sharply," economist Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a research note.

Economist Joel Naroff was more succinct: "The lean, mean job machine has sand in its gears."

A weakening economy also could unnerve Republicans ahead of hotly contested elections in 2020.

Job creation tumbled in the goods-producing and service sectors, while industries such as construction, transportation and temporary help, which had previously been reliable sources of new jobs, hit a rough patch.

Meanwhile, average hourly wages rose 0.2 per cent compared to April to $27.83, disappointing economists who had hoped for slightly stronger gains.

Over the last 12 months, wage gains were 3.1 per cent and have been at or above three per cent for 10 straight months, outpacing increases in consumer inflation but confirming the lack of any upward trend.

With employers continuing to complain of a dearth of available and qualified workers, the size of the labour force was unchanged.

The disappointing number encouraged Wall Street, however, where the three major stock indexes jumped more than one per cent as investors bet on an increased chance of a Fed interest rate cut.

"If the Fed wants evidence the trade dispute has rattled business confidence enough to cause economic problems, a net unchanged employment report with fading wage pressures should do the trick," Chris Low of FTN Financial said in an analysis.

Against the backdrop of worsening trade conflicts, US job creation slowed sharply in May, adding to evidence the economy is weakening and raising expectations the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates soon.

Against the backdrop of worsening trade conflicts, US job creation slowed sharply in May, adding to evidence the economy is weakening and raising expectations the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates soon. Hiring dried up in major industries and wage growth stagnated, and because job growth was worse than previously reported in March and April, hiring was essentially flat last month, the Labor Department reported Friday. With the China trade conflict increasing and a new battle with Mexico set to begin Monday, with dire implications for a host of industries, the unexpectedly steep job slowdown in May heightened fears the world's largest economy is beginning to sputter. US employers added only 75,000 net new positions last month, less than half the 180,000 economists had been expecting, with sudden drops in hiring in healthcare, education and construction. The federal government payroll also shrank unexpectedly by 15,000 workers. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.6 per cent, matching April's level, the lowest since 1969. As he ploughs ahead with his aggressive and unorthodox trade agenda, President Donald Trump has been comforted that vigorous job gains and historically low unemployment provide a buffer against retaliation in tariff battles with major trading partners that have hit the US manufacturing sector in particular. The US economy in July will break the record for its longest-ever expansion but economists expect it to slow a notch in 2019 and the odds of a recession have also increased. The average job gains for the past three months was 151,000 compared to the 12-month average of 196,000, signalling a slowdown in hiring, also attributed to the difficulty of finding workers. Kevin Hassett, the White House's departing chief economist, conceded Friday that the numbers were weaker than expected, but he pointed to special factors. "There really were pretty serious weather effects. There's all this flooding in the Midwest... a lot of the ports had to stop taking traffic," he told CNBC. Hassett estimated weather could have cut the monthly hiring figure by 40,000 positions but the result was still underwhelming. "It's a little bit disappointing but it does not really cause to change our outlook for the year," he said. The sudden weakness has raised expectations the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rates this year -- possibly twice and as soon as this month -- to support growth after four increases in 2018. Sand in the gears Fed policymakers have sent signals in recent days they are open to easing, and are on the lookout for signs of weakness. "These data make it easier for the Fed to ease either this month or next, if the trade tensions intensify and the stock market drops sharply," economist Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics said in a research note. Economist Joel Naroff was more succinct: "The lean, mean job machine has sand in its gears." A weakening economy also could unnerve Republicans ahead of hotly contested elections in 2020. Job creation tumbled in the goods-producing and service sectors, while industries such as construction, transportation and temporary help, which had previously been reliable sources of new jobs, hit a rough patch. Meanwhile, average hourly wages rose 0.2 per cent compared to April to $27.83, disappointing economists who had hoped for slightly stronger gains. Over the last 12 months, wage gains were 3.1 per cent and have been at or above three per cent for 10 straight months, outpacing increases in consumer inflation but confirming the lack of any upward trend. With employers continuing to complain of a dearth of available and qualified workers, the size of the labour force was unchanged. The disappointing number encouraged Wall Street, however, where the three major stock indexes jumped more than one per cent as investors bet on an increased chance of a Fed interest rate cut. "If the Fed wants evidence the trade dispute has rattled business confidence enough to cause economic problems, a net unchanged employment report with fading wage pressures should do the trick," Chris Low of FTN Financial said in an analysis.

US hiring slows sharply in May as trade tensions worsen

China's central bank chief said Friday the country has <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/explainer-us-china-trade-war-the-levers-they-can-pull-224809">plenty of policy tools left to handle the trade war</a> with the United States.

There is "tremendous" room to counter the deepening trade war, People's Bank of China governor Yi Gang said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

"We have plenty of room in interest rates, we have plenty of room in required reserve ratio rate, and also for the fiscal, monetary policy toolkit, I think the room for adjustment is tremendous," Yi said on Bloomberg TV.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/china-warns-its-companies-on-us-travel-rebuffs-trade-criticism-224200">Ties between China and the US</a> have deteriorated sharply after trade negotiations stalled last month without a deal to lift bruising tariffs on goods worth $360 billion in two-way trade.

China said Thursday that it would soon release detailed information about a planned blacklist of "unreliable" foreign companies and individuals, that analysts expect will target firms cutting off supplies to <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/amid-us-china-row-huawei-signs-deal-with-russian-telecom-company-mts-to-develop-5g-network-224867">Chinese tech giant Huawei</a>.

Last month the US Commerce Department placed Huawei and dozens of its affiliates on an "entity list" on grounds of national security, curbing its access to crucial US-made components and software -- through a 90-day reprieve was later issued.

Yi has participated in several rounds of the trade negotiations with Washington and is scheduled to meet with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin this weekend during the G20 gathering of financial policymakers in Japan.

He said the meeting with Mnuchin would be "productive talk, as always," but trade war discussions would be "uncertain and difficult", according to Bloomberg News.

Watch: IMF's Lagarde warns of 'growing concerns' over trade tensions

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China's yuan, or renminbi, the currency has also rapidly depreciated against the dollar as trade tensions have ramped up in recent weeks, nearing the critical seven to the dollar exchange rate.

The central bank has long prevented the yuan from falling below seven, but Yi hinted the bank may no longer defend the currency at that level.

"I don't think along this mathematical scale any number is more important (than) the other number," he said.

"The trade war would have a temporary depreciation pressure on the renminbi, but you see, after the noise, (the) renminbi will continue to be very stable and relatively strong compared to emerging market currencies, even compared to convertible currencies," he told Bloomberg TV.

"I'm very confident (the) renminbi will continue to be stable at a more or less equilibrium level," Yi said.

China's central bank chief said Friday the country has plenty of policy tools left to handle the trade war with the United States. There is "tremendous" room to counter the deepening trade war, People's Bank of China governor Yi Gang said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

China's central bank chief said Friday the country has plenty of policy tools left to handle the trade war with the United States. There is "tremendous" room to counter the deepening trade war, People's Bank of China governor Yi Gang said in an interview with Bloomberg TV. "We have plenty of room in interest rates, we have plenty of room in required reserve ratio rate, and also for the fiscal, monetary policy toolkit, I think the room for adjustment is tremendous," Yi said on Bloomberg TV. Ties between China and the US have deteriorated sharply after trade negotiations stalled last month without a deal to lift bruising tariffs on goods worth $360 billion in two-way trade. China said Thursday that it would soon release detailed information about a planned blacklist of "unreliable" foreign companies and individuals, that analysts expect will target firms cutting off supplies to Chinese tech giant Huawei. Last month the US Commerce Department placed Huawei and dozens of its affiliates on an "entity list" on grounds of national security, curbing its access to crucial US-made components and software -- through a 90-day reprieve was later issued. Yi has participated in several rounds of the trade negotiations with Washington and is scheduled to meet with US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin this weekend during the G20 gathering of financial policymakers in Japan. He said the meeting with Mnuchin would be "productive talk, as always," but trade war discussions would be "uncertain and difficult", according to Bloomberg News. Watch: IMF's Lagarde warns of 'growing concerns' over trade tensions × China's yuan, or renminbi, the currency has also rapidly depreciated against the dollar as trade tensions have ramped up in recent weeks, nearing the critical seven to the dollar exchange rate. The central bank has long prevented the yuan from falling below seven, but Yi hinted the bank may no longer defend the currency at that level. "I don't think along this mathematical scale any number is more important (than) the other number," he said. "The trade war would have a temporary depreciation pressure on the renminbi, but you see, after the noise, (the) renminbi will continue to be very stable and relatively strong compared to emerging market currencies, even compared to convertible currencies," he told Bloomberg TV. "I'm very confident (the) renminbi will continue to be stable at a more or less equilibrium level," Yi said.

China has tools to handle trade war with US: Central bank chief Yi Gang

China's President&nbsp;Xi&nbsp;Jinping and<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/trump-plans-5-tariff-on-mexican-imports-over-illegal-immigration-222998"> US President Donald&nbsp;Trump</a>&nbsp;are likely to find it "difficult" to&nbsp;make&nbsp;major&nbsp;progress&nbsp;towards ending their countries'&nbsp;trade&nbsp;war when they meet at a G20 summit in Japan in June, a&nbsp;former&nbsp;Chinese&nbsp;central&nbsp;bank&nbsp;chief&nbsp;said on Friday.

Trade&nbsp;tensions between Washington and Beijing escalated sharply earlier this month after the&nbsp;Trump&nbsp;administration accused&nbsp;China&nbsp;of having "reneged" on its previous promises to make structural changes to its economic practices.

Washington later slapped additional tariffs of up to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to hit back with additional levies on around $60 billion of US imports due to take effect on Saturday.

Dai&nbsp;Xianglong, who headed the People's&nbsp;Bank&nbsp;of&nbsp;China&nbsp;(PBOC) from 1995-2002 and remains an influential figure in&nbsp;China, told a seminar in Beijing that&nbsp;China-US trade&nbsp;friction was a long-term issue.

China&nbsp;has approached the&nbsp;trade&nbsp;talks with the principles of equality and cooperation, whereas the US&nbsp;approach has been "bullying and America First", Dai said.

"It's&nbsp;hard&nbsp;to reconcile these," he added.

"I expect that next month's meeting of the leaders in Japan it will be difficult to achieve major&nbsp;progress."

Dai said he did not rule out stronger retaliation by&nbsp;China.

Trump&nbsp;has said he is planning on meeting&nbsp;Xi&nbsp;during the G20 summit, set for June 28-29 in Osaka, though&nbsp;China&nbsp;has not formally confirmed this.

Since the latest round of US&nbsp;tariffs, which caught Beijing by surprise, Chinese state media has gone on the offensive.

The People's Daily, the ruling Communist Party's flagship newspaper, warned this week that&nbsp;China&nbsp;was ready to use its dominance of rare earth, crucial minerals used in electronics, to strike back in the&nbsp;trade&nbsp;war.

The increasingly intense public relations battle with the United States with the deluge of sharply worded commentaries and warnings out of&nbsp;China&nbsp;in the last two weeks risks complicating the run-up to any&nbsp;Xi-Trump&nbsp;meeting in Japan.

At the Beijing seminar on Friday,&nbsp;former&nbsp;Chinese vice commerce minister Wei Jianguo said initiating a&nbsp;trade&nbsp;war with&nbsp;China&nbsp;might be the biggest strategic mistake made by the United States since World War II or even it's founding.

There is a need to prepare for the likelihood for the&nbsp;trade&nbsp;war to ratchet up tensions to geopolitical areas including the South&nbsp;China&nbsp;Sea, said Wei, adding that the&nbsp;trade&nbsp;conflict might last for 30 years or even half a century.

China's President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump are likely to find it "difficult" to make major progress towards ending their countries' trade war when they meet at a G20 summit in Japan in June, a former Chinese central bank chief said on Friday.

China's President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump are likely to find it "difficult" to make major progress towards ending their countries' trade war when they meet at a G20 summit in Japan in June, a former Chinese central bank chief said on Friday. Trade tensions between Washington and Beijing escalated sharply earlier this month after the Trump administration accused China of having "reneged" on its previous promises to make structural changes to its economic practices. Washington later slapped additional tariffs of up to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods, prompting Beijing to hit back with additional levies on around $60 billion of US imports due to take effect on Saturday. Dai Xianglong, who headed the People's Bank of China (PBOC) from 1995-2002 and remains an influential figure in China, told a seminar in Beijing that China-US trade friction was a long-term issue. China has approached the trade talks with the principles of equality and cooperation, whereas the US approach has been "bullying and America First", Dai said. "It's hard to reconcile these," he added. "I expect that next month's meeting of the leaders in Japan it will be difficult to achieve major progress." Dai said he did not rule out stronger retaliation by China. Trump has said he is planning on meeting Xi during the G20 summit, set for June 28-29 in Osaka, though China has not formally confirmed this. Since the latest round of US tariffs, which caught Beijing by surprise, Chinese state media has gone on the offensive. The People's Daily, the ruling Communist Party's flagship newspaper, warned this week that China was ready to use its dominance of rare earth, crucial minerals used in electronics, to strike back in the trade war. The increasingly intense public relations battle with the United States with the deluge of sharply worded commentaries and warnings out of China in the last two weeks risks complicating the run-up to any Xi-Trump meeting in Japan. At the Beijing seminar on Friday, former Chinese vice commerce minister Wei Jianguo said initiating a trade war with China might be the biggest strategic mistake made by the United States since World War II or even it's founding. There is a need to prepare for the likelihood for the trade war to ratchet up tensions to geopolitical areas including the South China Sea, said Wei, adding that the trade conflict might last for 30 years or even half a century.

Hard for Xi, Trump to make progress on trade: Former China central bank chief

China has demonstrated more than enough sincerity to reach a mutually beneficial deal and end trade tensions with the United States. However, trapped in hegemonic ideology, the U.S. has responded by unilateral and protectionist tariff hikes that put world economy in danger, according to a commentary published by China's Xinhua News Agency on Sunday.

China's utmost sincerity in trade talks a sign of strength

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/china-slams-us-lies-about-huaweis-government-ties-221382">China's</a> banking and insurance regulator on Saturday said it did not expect a persistent decline in the yuan and warned speculative short sellers they would suffer "heavy losses" if they bet against the currency.

The yuan has lost more than 2.5% against the dollar since the festering <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/imf-warns-us-china-trade-war-will-jeopardize-2019-global-growth-221117">China-US trade dispute</a> intensified earlier this month. It is now less than a tenth of a yuan away from the 7-per-dollar level authorities have in the past indicated as a floor.

"Short-term fluctuation of the yuan exchange rate is normal, but in the long-run, China's economic fundamentals determine that the yuan will not depreciate persistently," Xiao Yuanqi, the spokesman for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), told a finance forum in Beijing.

"Those who speculate and short the yuan will for sure suffer heavy loss."

Xiao was reading from a script prepared for Guo Shuqing, CBIRC's chairman and the Communist Party chief of the People's Bank of China (PBOC). Guo was scheduled to give a speech at the same forum but couldn't make it due to last minute arrangements.

Xiao also said Beijing must look out for hot money moving in and out of the country, as well as large amounts of capital flowing into the frothy real estate market.

"We must be especially vigilant about money from overseas moving in and out in large quantities, and hot speculative money, and we must resolutely fight bubbles in real estate and financial assets," he said.

Chinese policymakers have struggled to manage bubble risks in the property market, the world's largest, without hurting growth in the sector, which is crucial for the wider economy.

China's banking and insurance regulator on Saturday said it did not expect a persistent decline in the yuan and warned speculative short sellers they would suffer "heavy losses" if they bet against the currency.

China's banking and insurance regulator on Saturday said it did not expect a persistent decline in the yuan and warned speculative short sellers they would suffer "heavy losses" if they bet against the currency. The yuan has lost more than 2.5% against the dollar since the festering China-US trade dispute intensified earlier this month. It is now less than a tenth of a yuan away from the 7-per-dollar level authorities have in the past indicated as a floor. "Short-term fluctuation of the yuan exchange rate is normal, but in the long-run, China's economic fundamentals determine that the yuan will not depreciate persistently," Xiao Yuanqi, the spokesman for the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), told a finance forum in Beijing. "Those who speculate and short the yuan will for sure suffer heavy loss." Xiao was reading from a script prepared for Guo Shuqing, CBIRC's chairman and the Communist Party chief of the People's Bank of China (PBOC). Guo was scheduled to give a speech at the same forum but couldn't make it due to last minute arrangements. Xiao also said Beijing must look out for hot money moving in and out of the country, as well as large amounts of capital flowing into the frothy real estate market. "We must be especially vigilant about money from overseas moving in and out in large quantities, and hot speculative money, and we must resolutely fight bubbles in real estate and financial assets," he said. Chinese policymakers have struggled to manage bubble risks in the property market, the world's largest, without hurting growth in the sector, which is crucial for the wider economy.

China's top banking regulator says yuan bears will suffer 'heavy losses'

&nbsp;The US&nbsp;President<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-consumers-businesses-to-pay-for-tariffs-on-chinese-goods-expert-219096"> Donald&nbsp;Trump&nbsp;said his tariffs on Chinese goods </a>are causing companies to move production out of China to Vietnam and other countries in Asia and added that any agreement with China cannot be a "50-50" deal.

In an interview with Fox News Channel recorded last week and aired on Sunday night,&nbsp;Trump&nbsp;said that the United States and China "had a very strong deal, we had a good deal, and they changed it. And I said that's OK, we're going to tariff their products."

No further trade talks between top Chinese and US&nbsp;trade negotiators have been scheduled since the last round ended on May 10 - the same day&nbsp;Trump&nbsp;raised the tariff rate on $200 billion worth of Chinese products from 10 per cent.

Trump&nbsp;took the step after China soured the negotiations by seeking major changes to a deal that US&nbsp;officials said had been largely agreed.

Since then, China has struck a sterner tone in its rhetoric, suggesting that a resumption of talks aimed at ending the 10-month trade war between the world's two largest economies was unlikely to happen soon.

Trump, who said the interview with Fox News host Steve Hilton had taken place two days after he raised the tariffs, said he would be happy to simply keep tariffs on Chinese products because the United States would be taking in $100 billion or more in tariffs.

But he added that he believed that China would eventually make a deal with the United States "because they're getting killed with the tariffs, China' getting totally killed."

But he said that he had told<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/there-is-no-clash-between-different-civilisations-says-president-xi-amid-us-china-trade-war-218993"> Chinese President Xi Jinping</a> before the most recent rounds of talks that any deal could not be "50-50" between the two countries and had to be more in favour of the United States because of past trade practices by China.

Trump&nbsp;also said that Democratic presidential candidate and former US vice president Joe Biden should be investigated over a conservative author's allegation that Biden's son Hunter Biden took advantage of his father's position to sign a lucrative business deal with state-controlled Bank of China. The allegation was made in Peter Schweizer's 2018 book "Secret Empires."

Asked if this should be investigated,&nbsp;Trump&nbsp;said,&nbsp;"100 per cent. It’s a disgrace and then (Joe Biden) says China’s not a competitor of ours. China is a massive competitor of ours. They want to take over the world."

The US President Donald Trump said his tariffs on Chinese goods are causing companies to move production out of China to Vietnam and other countries in Asia and added that any agreement with China cannot be a "50-50" deal.

The US President Donald Trump said his tariffs on Chinese goods are causing companies to move production out of China to Vietnam and other countries in Asia and added that any agreement with China cannot be a "50-50" deal. In an interview with Fox News Channel recorded last week and aired on Sunday night, Trump said that the United States and China "had a very strong deal, we had a good deal, and they changed it. And I said that's OK, we're going to tariff their products." No further trade talks between top Chinese and US trade negotiators have been scheduled since the last round ended on May 10 - the same day Trump raised the tariff rate on $200 billion worth of Chinese products from 10 per cent. Trump took the step after China soured the negotiations by seeking major changes to a deal that US officials said had been largely agreed. Since then, China has struck a sterner tone in its rhetoric, suggesting that a resumption of talks aimed at ending the 10-month trade war between the world's two largest economies was unlikely to happen soon. Trump, who said the interview with Fox News host Steve Hilton had taken place two days after he raised the tariffs, said he would be happy to simply keep tariffs on Chinese products because the United States would be taking in $100 billion or more in tariffs. But he added that he believed that China would eventually make a deal with the United States "because they're getting killed with the tariffs, China' getting totally killed." But he said that he had told Chinese President Xi Jinping before the most recent rounds of talks that any deal could not be "50-50" between the two countries and had to be more in favour of the United States because of past trade practices by China. Trump also said that Democratic presidential candidate and former US vice president Joe Biden should be investigated over a conservative author's allegation that Biden's son Hunter Biden took advantage of his father's position to sign a lucrative business deal with state-controlled Bank of China. The allegation was made in Peter Schweizer's 2018 book "Secret Empires." Asked if this should be investigated, Trump said, "100 per cent. It’s a disgrace and then (Joe Biden) says China’s not a competitor of ours. China is a massive competitor of ours. They want to take over the world."

Trump says tariffs making companies leave China, a deal can't be '50-50'

Oil prices were moving higher on Tuesday, though gains were checked amid an escalation in the trade war between the United States and China.

Brent crude futures were at $70.30 a barrel at 0318 GMT, up 7 cents, or 0.1%, from their last close. Brent ended the previous session down 0.6%.

The US&nbsp;West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $61.11 per barrel, up 7 cents, or 0.1%, from their previous settlement. WTI closed down 1% on Monday.

Headlines from the Middle East grabbed attention early in the session after Saudi Arabia said two of its oil tankers were among those attacked off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, describing it as an attempt to undermine the security of supply amid United States-Iran tensions.

But analysts said the US-China trade war continued to cast a pall on the market as a whole.

"This ramp-up in trade tensions, which I don't really think people saw coming, is going to have an impact, a broad impact," Phin Ziebell, senior economist at National Australia Bank said by phone. "You can't avoid the impact on the oil market."

China on Monday ignored a warning from US&nbsp;President Donald Trump and moved to impose higher tariffs on a range of US goods including frozen vegetables and liquefied natural gas

The US&nbsp;Energy Department said on Monday that it was confident global oil markets are well supplied.

But that may change by the end of the year as oil production capacity could drop to under 1% of global supply-demand by the end of the year after the US&nbsp;imposed sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, the analyst said.

Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is likely to raise its production much more cautiously than last year when production from the Kingdom rose to record highs above 11 million bpd in November after calls from Trump to replace Iranian barrels.

Riyadh, for now, is reluctant to boost oil supply too quickly and risk a price crash and a build-up in inventories, despite pressure from the Trump administration to reduce oil prices.

Oil prices were moving higher on Tuesday, though gains were checked amid an escalation in the trade war between the United States and China. Brent crude futures were at $70.

Oil prices were moving higher on Tuesday, though gains were checked amid an escalation in the trade war between the United States and China. Brent crude futures were at $70.30 a barrel at 0318 GMT, up 7 cents, or 0.1%, from their last close. Brent ended the previous session down 0.6%. The US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $61.11 per barrel, up 7 cents, or 0.1%, from their previous settlement. WTI closed down 1% on Monday. Headlines from the Middle East grabbed attention early in the session after Saudi Arabia said two of its oil tankers were among those attacked off the coast of the United Arab Emirates, describing it as an attempt to undermine the security of supply amid United States-Iran tensions. But analysts said the US-China trade war continued to cast a pall on the market as a whole. "This ramp-up in trade tensions, which I don't really think people saw coming, is going to have an impact, a broad impact," Phin Ziebell, senior economist at National Australia Bank said by phone. "You can't avoid the impact on the oil market." China on Monday ignored a warning from US President Donald Trump and moved to impose higher tariffs on a range of US goods including frozen vegetables and liquefied natural gas The US Energy Department said on Monday that it was confident global oil markets are well supplied. But that may change by the end of the year as oil production capacity could drop to under 1% of global supply-demand by the end of the year after the US imposed sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, the analyst said. Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is likely to raise its production much more cautiously than last year when production from the Kingdom rose to record highs above 11 million bpd in November after calls from Trump to replace Iranian barrels. Riyadh, for now, is reluctant to boost oil supply too quickly and risk a price crash and a build-up in inventories, despite pressure from the Trump administration to reduce oil prices.

Oil prices rise, gains tempered by US-China trade tensions

China Neglect US President Trump's Warning Not To Retaliate. Global Markets Are Struggling As Trade Disputes Between US & China Come To The Fore.

Gravitas: US-China Trade Tensions Escalate, China Announces Retaliatory Tariffs

By raising tariffs on Chinese products, the United States will harm the interests of its businesses and consumers in the long term, according to Chinese economic experts at a seminar on China-US trade in Beijing on Sunday.

US raising tariffs will harm American businesses, consumers: Chinese experts

China's top trade negotiator Liu He said on Friday in Washington that<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-officials-says-china-trade-talks-constructive-217600"> trade talks with the US</a> would continue in Beijing but warned that there would be no concessions on "important principles".

"Negotiations have not broken down, but rather on the contrary, this is only a normal twist in the negotiations between the two countries, it is inevitable," Liu told Chinese media.

<a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/top-facts-how-us-china-talks-differ-from-any-other-trade-deal-217563">In pics: How US-China talks differ from any other trade deal</a>

"Both sides agree they will meet again in Beijing in the future and keep pushing forward the negotiations," he said without giving a date.

Although Liu deemed the two days of talks in the US "productive" he said differences continued to exist.

"We have a consensus in lots of areas but to speak frankly there are areas we have differences on, and we believe these concern big principles," he said.

"Every country has important principles, and we will not make concessions on matters of principle."

US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said earlier, talks to end a worrisome&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/top-facts-how-us-china-talks-differ-from-any-other-trade-deal-217563">US-China trade battle</a>&nbsp;were "constructive," giving a sign of hope that Washington and Beijing could seal a deal to avert damage to the global economy.

"They were constructive discussions between both parties, that's all we're going to say," Mnuchin was quoted as saying by CNBC following a two-hour negotiating session.

President Donald&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/tariffs-will-bring-in-far-more-wealth-to-our-country-than-even-phenomenal-deal-of-traditional-kind-donald-trump-217507">Trump said Friday he was in no hurry to reach a deal with Beijing</a>, arguing the United States was negotiating from a position of strength.

Just hours earlier, Washington had pulled the trigger on an increase in punitive duties on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25 per cent from 10 per cent, and Beijing responded vowing to take the "necessary countermeasures."

China's top trade negotiator Liu He said on Friday in Washington that trade talks with the US would continue in Beijing but warned that there would be no concessions on "important principles".

China's top trade negotiator Liu He said on Friday in Washington that trade talks with the US would continue in Beijing but warned that there would be no concessions on "important principles". "Negotiations have not broken down, but rather on the contrary, this is only a normal twist in the negotiations between the two countries, it is inevitable," Liu told Chinese media. In pics: How US-China talks differ from any other trade deal "Both sides agree they will meet again in Beijing in the future and keep pushing forward the negotiations," he said without giving a date. Although Liu deemed the two days of talks in the US "productive" he said differences continued to exist. "We have a consensus in lots of areas but to speak frankly there are areas we have differences on, and we believe these concern big principles," he said. "Every country has important principles, and we will not make concessions on matters of principle." US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said earlier, talks to end a worrisome US-China trade battle were "constructive," giving a sign of hope that Washington and Beijing could seal a deal to avert damage to the global economy. "They were constructive discussions between both parties, that's all we're going to say," Mnuchin was quoted as saying by CNBC following a two-hour negotiating session. President Donald Trump said Friday he was in no hurry to reach a deal with Beijing, arguing the United States was negotiating from a position of strength. Just hours earlier, Washington had pulled the trigger on an increase in punitive duties on $200 billion in Chinese imports to 25 per cent from 10 per cent, and Beijing responded vowing to take the "necessary countermeasures."

China says it will hold more trade talks with US in Beijing

The rupee depreciated by 18 paise to 69.89 against the US dollar in early trade Thursday amid heavy sell-off in the domestic equity market and foreign fund outflows.

Forex traders said, the US-China trade concerns also weighed on the domestic currency.

The rupee opened weak at 69.70 at the interbank forex market and then fell further to 69.89, down 18 paise over its last close.

The rupee had settled at 69.71 against the US dollar Wednesday.

China has threatened to take retaliatory measures if US President Donald Trump raises tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods ahead of the crucial 11th round of talks aimed at ending the trade war between the world's two largest economies.

The talks are due to be held on May 9-10 in Washington between trade delegations headed by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin.

On the domestic front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulled out Rs 645.08 crore on a net basis Wednesday, provisional data showed.

Domestic bourses opened on a negative note Thursday with benchmark indices Sensex trading 191.71 points down at 37,606.72 and Nifty down 54.60 points at 11,304.85.

Forex dealers said easing crude oil prices however supported the local unit and restricted the downfall. 
Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.78 per cent to $69.82 per barrel.

The rupee depreciated by 18 paise to 69.89 against the US dollar in early trade Thursday amid heavy sell-off in the domestic equity market and foreign fund outflows.

The rupee depreciated by 18 paise to 69.89 against the US dollar in early trade Thursday amid heavy sell-off in the domestic equity market and foreign fund outflows. Forex traders said, the US-China trade concerns also weighed on the domestic currency. The rupee opened weak at 69.70 at the interbank forex market and then fell further to 69.89, down 18 paise over its last close. The rupee had settled at 69.71 against the US dollar Wednesday. China has threatened to take retaliatory measures if US President Donald Trump raises tariffs on $200 billion worth of goods ahead of the crucial 11th round of talks aimed at ending the trade war between the world's two largest economies. The talks are due to be held on May 9-10 in Washington between trade delegations headed by Chinese Vice Premier Liu He and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin. On the domestic front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) pulled out Rs 645.08 crore on a net basis Wednesday, provisional data showed. Domestic bourses opened on a negative note Thursday with benchmark indices Sensex trading 191.71 points down at 37,606.72 and Nifty down 54.60 points at 11,304.85. Forex dealers said easing crude oil prices however supported the local unit and restricted the downfall. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.78 per cent to $69.82 per barrel.

Rupee depreciates 18 paise to 69.89 against dollar as US-China trade concern weighs in

By Charles Hankla 
 
Last week President Donald Trump seemed to be on the cusp of a trade deal with China. A couple of threatening tweets later, the odds of ending the 16-month-old US-China trade war have dropped dramatically.

Whether or not American and Chinese trade negotiators ultimately salvage a deal – the US says China backpedaled on a commitment and intends to raise tariffs within days – the episode highlights drawbacks in Trump’s trade strategy, which tends to be protectionist, confrontational and negotiated one on one.

Unfortunately, Trump’s policies are only an acceleration of a trend in international trade that’s been going on for several decades. It’s a move away from multilateralism – in which many countries agree on certain trading principles – and toward bilateralism – which pits nation against nation, raising the stakes.

I am a specialist in the politics of trade. My observations lead me to believe that the increasing abandonment of multilateralism will have pernicious long-term consequences. Not only will trade become more costly for businesses and consumers, it may even make the planet a more dangerous place.

World trade – Trump style

Before we can understand what has changed, we need to revisit how trade deals have historically been done.

In the decades following World War II, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade was the center of gravity for trade negotiations. While that system wasn’t perfect, most of the world’s countries could at least participate, to one degree or another, in hammering out the rules of trade.

This multilateral trading order reached its heyday in 1995, with the creation of the World Trade Organisation. But more recently, the system has weakened. Today, most of the world’s new agreements are struck between only two countries or within a single region.

Trump has shown little appetite for continuing the multilateral negotiations his predecessors were working on. He’s also hammered on regional accords, famously renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement and withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

Trump’s clear preference is for bilateral deals where the US can use its market power to force concessions from its negotiating partners. But Trump has added a level of confrontation and antagonism to world trade not known in the postwar era.

For evidence, look no further than his threats to raise tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods if a deal falls through.

In essence, the United States under Trump has begun to see itself as the victim, rather than the guarantor, of the liberal trading order. This new perspective has made American negotiators more willing to extract temporary concessions from trading partners, even when these come at the cost of destabilizing the system as a whole.

Rules upon rules

One pernicious consequence of abandoning multilateralism is the mounting complexity and discriminatory nature of global trading arrangements.

In international trade, the fewer rules there are the better. One real benefit of the WTO system is that the same rules, more or less, apply to everyone.

But the world’s increasing rejection of multilateralism is creating a complex web of trade regulations that are tremendously hard to navigate. The number of preferential trade agreements jumped from just over 50 in 1990 to nearly 300 in 2010.

More deals like these mean that one set of rules is overlaid by more rules that only apply when trading with specific countries in certain goods and services. For this reason, the economist Jagdish Bhagwati has called bilateral deals “termites in the trading system.”

These “termites” and the informational burdens they create have real costs for companies and consumers, whether in Europe, Asia or the United States. And this growing complexity weakens competition by giving certain companies an edge over others based on their national origin, distorting the efficiency of global markets.

In the end, these burdens can discourage smaller companies from engaging in global commerce, make it more expensive for even the largest businesses and drive up the cost of products for consumers.

Trade conflicts

A second drawback to Trump’s approach is that it increases the risk of war, at least over the long term.

As the political economist David Lake has pointed out, one purpose of the trading system that the US helped set up after World War II was to forestall mutually antagonistic trading blocs like the ones built by Adolf Hitler or, earlier, by the European and Japanese colonial powers.

The origins of the two world wars may have been principally political, but there is little doubt that economic conflicts between blocs contributed to the military tensions.

During the postwar era, the multilateral system took a major step toward insulating trade from such international disputes and strategic competition. Outside of relations with the communist bloc, which only later participated in multilateral trade deals, there is ample reason to believe that economic interdependence helped produce the “long peace” of that period.

For this reason, we should all be worried about the wobbly state of the global trading system. Bilateral and regional deals are making it easier for large countries to use trade policy more explicitly as an arm of foreign and military policy.

Modern bilateral deals are not recreating the colonial systems of the past, but they do tend to center on major powers in what some scholars have called a “hub” and “spoke” pattern. The “hub” often enjoys significant influence over the “spoke,” and not just in commercial affairs. China’s overtures to African countries over a free trade deal, for example, are likely linked to its strategic interest in securing access to national resources.

While I’m not suggesting that these deals are likely to trigger a shooting war anytime soon, an increasingly fractured world will gradually reduce interdependence among countries – which can act as a strong incentive to avoid a fight.

If the rising number of bilateral deals become an instrument of security policy, and trade increasingly flows only to strategically friendly countries, we should all prepare for more violent conflict in the future. 
 
(Charles Hankla is Associate Professor of Political Science, Georgia State University) 
 
(This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/trumps-one-on-one-approach-to-china-has-dangerous-implications-for-global-trade-and-world-peace-116505">original article)</a>

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL) 
 
&nbsp;

By Charles Hankla Last week President Donald Trump seemed to be on the cusp of a trade deal with China. A couple of threatening tweets later, the odds of ending the 16-month-old US-China trade war have dropped dramatically.

By Charles Hankla Last week President Donald Trump seemed to be on the cusp of a trade deal with China. A couple of threatening tweets later, the odds of ending the 16-month-old US-China trade war have dropped dramatically. Whether or not American and Chinese trade negotiators ultimately salvage a deal – the US says China backpedaled on a commitment and intends to raise tariffs within days – the episode highlights drawbacks in Trump’s trade strategy, which tends to be protectionist, confrontational and negotiated one on one. Unfortunately, Trump’s policies are only an acceleration of a trend in international trade that’s been going on for several decades. It’s a move away from multilateralism – in which many countries agree on certain trading principles – and toward bilateralism – which pits nation against nation, raising the stakes. I am a specialist in the politics of trade. My observations lead me to believe that the increasing abandonment of multilateralism will have pernicious long-term consequences. Not only will trade become more costly for businesses and consumers, it may even make the planet a more dangerous place. World trade – Trump style Before we can understand what has changed, we need to revisit how trade deals have historically been done. In the decades following World War II, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade was the center of gravity for trade negotiations. While that system wasn’t perfect, most of the world’s countries could at least participate, to one degree or another, in hammering out the rules of trade. This multilateral trading order reached its heyday in 1995, with the creation of the World Trade Organisation. But more recently, the system has weakened. Today, most of the world’s new agreements are struck between only two countries or within a single region. Trump has shown little appetite for continuing the multilateral negotiations his predecessors were working on. He’s also hammered on regional accords, famously renegotiating the North American Free Trade Agreement and withdrawing from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Trump’s clear preference is for bilateral deals where the US can use its market power to force concessions from its negotiating partners. But Trump has added a level of confrontation and antagonism to world trade not known in the postwar era. For evidence, look no further than his threats to raise tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of Chinese goods if a deal falls through. In essence, the United States under Trump has begun to see itself as the victim, rather than the guarantor, of the liberal trading order. This new perspective has made American negotiators more willing to extract temporary concessions from trading partners, even when these come at the cost of destabilizing the system as a whole. Rules upon rules One pernicious consequence of abandoning multilateralism is the mounting complexity and discriminatory nature of global trading arrangements. In international trade, the fewer rules there are the better. One real benefit of the WTO system is that the same rules, more or less, apply to everyone. But the world’s increasing rejection of multilateralism is creating a complex web of trade regulations that are tremendously hard to navigate. The number of preferential trade agreements jumped from just over 50 in 1990 to nearly 300 in 2010. More deals like these mean that one set of rules is overlaid by more rules that only apply when trading with specific countries in certain goods and services. For this reason, the economist Jagdish Bhagwati has called bilateral deals “termites in the trading system.” These “termites” and the informational burdens they create have real costs for companies and consumers, whether in Europe, Asia or the United States. And this growing complexity weakens competition by giving certain companies an edge over others based on their national origin, distorting the efficiency of global markets. In the end, these burdens can discourage smaller companies from engaging in global commerce, make it more expensive for even the largest businesses and drive up the cost of products for consumers. Trade conflicts A second drawback to Trump’s approach is that it increases the risk of war, at least over the long term. As the political economist David Lake has pointed out, one purpose of the trading system that the US helped set up after World War II was to forestall mutually antagonistic trading blocs like the ones built by Adolf Hitler or, earlier, by the European and Japanese colonial powers. The origins of the two world wars may have been principally political, but there is little doubt that economic conflicts between blocs contributed to the military tensions. During the postwar era, the multilateral system took a major step toward insulating trade from such international disputes and strategic competition. Outside of relations with the communist bloc, which only later participated in multilateral trade deals, there is ample reason to believe that economic interdependence helped produce the “long peace” of that period. For this reason, we should all be worried about the wobbly state of the global trading system. Bilateral and regional deals are making it easier for large countries to use trade policy more explicitly as an arm of foreign and military policy. Modern bilateral deals are not recreating the colonial systems of the past, but they do tend to center on major powers in what some scholars have called a “hub” and “spoke” pattern. The “hub” often enjoys significant influence over the “spoke,” and not just in commercial affairs. China’s overtures to African countries over a free trade deal, for example, are likely linked to its strategic interest in securing access to national resources. While I’m not suggesting that these deals are likely to trigger a shooting war anytime soon, an increasingly fractured world will gradually reduce interdependence among countries – which can act as a strong incentive to avoid a fight. If the rising number of bilateral deals become an instrument of security policy, and trade increasingly flows only to strategically friendly countries, we should all prepare for more violent conflict in the future. (Charles Hankla is Associate Professor of Political Science, Georgia State University) (This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article) (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL)

Donald Trump’s one-on-one approach to China has dangerous implications for global trade

US&nbsp;stocks fell on Monday after President Donald Trump pledged to <a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-china-reneged-on-trade-commitments-sparking-trump-tariff-hike-216534">raise tariffs on Chinese goods</a>, though Wall Street finished well off its session lows as some investors saw Trump`s comments as a bargaining tactic and expressed confidence in an eventual trade agreement.

But stock futures dropped sharply following the market close after US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said China had moved away from commitments made over the course of trade negotiations. S&amp;P e-minis were last down 1.3%.

Also read:&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/explaining-the-us-china-trade-war-which-grabbed-spotlight-in-2018-185043">Explaining the US-China trade war which grabbed spotlight in 2018</a>

US negotiators are now recommending an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods if a trade agreement is not reached by Friday. Lighthizer said his office would likely post a notice on Tuesday about the planned increase in tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% from 10%.

On Sunday, Trump had said an increase in the tariffs would go into effect, reversing a decision he made in February to retain the tariffs at 10% as the United States and China made progress on trade talks.&nbsp;

China said on Monday that a delegation was still preparing to go to the United States, but did not mention if Vice Premier Liu He, its lead official in the negotiations, would be part of the team as originally planned.

Trump`s comments inflamed fears of a slowdown in global growth, which have periodically roiled markets over the past year. The benchmark S&amp;P 500 fell as much as 1.6% during the session while US&nbsp;Treasury yields dropped as investors turned to low-risk government bonds.

Yet the major indexes recovered much of their losses in afternoon trading as some investors remained hopeful that a trade agreement would soon be reached.

"It seems like a negotiating stance," said David Lefkowitz, senior Americas equity strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management`s chief investment office in New York. "Our base case still is that China and the United States do find common ground.

"The probability that there is a negative outcome has probably gone up a little bit, but quantifying that, it`s hard to say," he added.

A rise in healthcare shares helped offset the trade-driven losses. At the Sohn Investment Conference on Monday, Glenview Capital Management Chief Executive Larry Robbins said he favored the sector.

The sector got a further lift as Centene Corp shares rose 6.6% after Reuters reported that two hedge funds have built stakes in the health insurer and are exploring a challenge to its planned acquisition of WellCare Health Plans Inc.

But materials, industrials and technology shares dropped as investors moved away from cyclical and trade-sensitive sectors.

Boeing Co, the single largest US exporter to China, fell 1.3%. Chipmakers, which get a sizable portion of their revenue from China, also tumbled. The Philadelphia chip index slid 1.7%. Apple Inc shares, which have also been sensitive to signs of weakness in China, declined 1.5%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 66.47 points, or 0.25%, to 26,438.48, the S&amp;P 500 lost 13.17 points, or 0.45%, to 2,932.47 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 40.71 points, or 0.5%, to 8,123.29.

In a bright spot, Anadarko Petroleum Corp shares rose 3.8% after Occidental Petroleum Corp increased the cash component of its $38 billion bid, removing a need for any deal to receive the approval of Occidental`s shareholders.

Occidental is trying to convince Anadarko to accept its offer and abandon the agreed-upon $33 billion sale to Chevron Corp. Shares of Chevron rose 1.0%.&nbsp;

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.45-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.28-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&amp;P 500 posted 19 new 52-week highs and four new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 69 new highs and 33 new lows.&nbsp;

Volume on US exchanges was 6.45 billion shares, compared to the 6.62 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

US stocks fell on Monday after President Donald Trump pledged to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, though Wall Street finished well off its session lows as some investors saw Trump`s comments as a bargaining tactic and expressed confidence in an eventual trade agreement.

US stocks fell on Monday after President Donald Trump pledged to raise tariffs on Chinese goods, though Wall Street finished well off its session lows as some investors saw Trump`s comments as a bargaining tactic and expressed confidence in an eventual trade agreement. But stock futures dropped sharply following the market close after US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said China had moved away from commitments made over the course of trade negotiations. S&P e-minis were last down 1.3%. Also read: Explaining the US-China trade war which grabbed spotlight in 2018 US negotiators are now recommending an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods if a trade agreement is not reached by Friday. Lighthizer said his office would likely post a notice on Tuesday about the planned increase in tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25% from 10%. On Sunday, Trump had said an increase in the tariffs would go into effect, reversing a decision he made in February to retain the tariffs at 10% as the United States and China made progress on trade talks. China said on Monday that a delegation was still preparing to go to the United States, but did not mention if Vice Premier Liu He, its lead official in the negotiations, would be part of the team as originally planned. Trump`s comments inflamed fears of a slowdown in global growth, which have periodically roiled markets over the past year. The benchmark S&P 500 fell as much as 1.6% during the session while US Treasury yields dropped as investors turned to low-risk government bonds. Yet the major indexes recovered much of their losses in afternoon trading as some investors remained hopeful that a trade agreement would soon be reached. "It seems like a negotiating stance," said David Lefkowitz, senior Americas equity strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management`s chief investment office in New York. "Our base case still is that China and the United States do find common ground. "The probability that there is a negative outcome has probably gone up a little bit, but quantifying that, it`s hard to say," he added. A rise in healthcare shares helped offset the trade-driven losses. At the Sohn Investment Conference on Monday, Glenview Capital Management Chief Executive Larry Robbins said he favored the sector. The sector got a further lift as Centene Corp shares rose 6.6% after Reuters reported that two hedge funds have built stakes in the health insurer and are exploring a challenge to its planned acquisition of WellCare Health Plans Inc. But materials, industrials and technology shares dropped as investors moved away from cyclical and trade-sensitive sectors. Boeing Co, the single largest US exporter to China, fell 1.3%. Chipmakers, which get a sizable portion of their revenue from China, also tumbled. The Philadelphia chip index slid 1.7%. Apple Inc shares, which have also been sensitive to signs of weakness in China, declined 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 66.47 points, or 0.25%, to 26,438.48, the S&P 500 lost 13.17 points, or 0.45%, to 2,932.47 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 40.71 points, or 0.5%, to 8,123.29. In a bright spot, Anadarko Petroleum Corp shares rose 3.8% after Occidental Petroleum Corp increased the cash component of its $38 billion bid, removing a need for any deal to receive the approval of Occidental`s shareholders. Occidental is trying to convince Anadarko to accept its offer and abandon the agreed-upon $33 billion sale to Chevron Corp. Shares of Chevron rose 1.0%. Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 1.45-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.28-to-1 ratio favored decliners. The S&P 500 posted 19 new 52-week highs and four new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 69 new highs and 33 new lows. Volume on US exchanges was 6.45 billion shares, compared to the 6.62 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

Wall Street falls as White House plans to raise China tariffs

President Donald Trump is due to meet Friday afternoon with China's top trade negotiator, as talks continue to try to defuse the escalation of the tariff war between the world's economic superpowers.

Global stock markets were higher as the two sides continued to project optimism, with Trump's personal involvement a likely signal of the White House's confidence in a successful outcome.

Also read: <a href="http://www.wionews.com/opinions/us-china-trade-talks-free-trade-must-not-be-derailed-198923">US-China trade talks, free trade must not be derailed</a>

Just a week remains to avoid a sharp increase in US duty rates on more than $200 billion in Chinese exports -- though Trump has suggested he could extend this deadline if needed.

The fourth round of talks has been underway all week, with senior officials meeting as of Thursday. The White House said Trump would meet with China's Vice Premier Liu He, who is leading the delegation from Beijing.&nbsp;

China's President Xi Jinping also met with US negotiators last week in Beijing, a sign the two leaders are closely following the high-stakes talks.

Analysts say the two sides are likely to trumpet mutual agreements to resolve the easier parts of the trade dispute -- increasing Chinese purchases of American exports, more open investment in China and tougher protections for intellectual property and companies' proprietary technology.

The harder parts -- structural changes to China's economy including an end to Beijing's massive intervention in markets and scaling back its ambitious industrial strategy for global preeminence -- are another question.

William Reinsch, a former senior Treasury official for trade in the administration of President Bill Clinton, told AFP it was unclear if Trump would seek to force Beijing to make such deep concessions.

'Combined impacts'

"Will he hold out for the whole loaf? I don't think anybody knows whether he'll do that. I don’t know if he knows," said Reinsch.

A risk for Trump, said Reinsch, is whether any agreement holds and the Chinese honour their commitments.

"If it unravels and we have a string of unmet commitments and then US retaliation right before the election, we're kind of right back where we started," he said.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is leading the US negotiating team, which also includes Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross.

In a sign of how high the stakes could be, Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, called the US-China trade tensions a "major risk" to global economic growth.

Since July, the countries have hit out with tariffs on more than $360 billion in two-way trade.

By themselves, Lagarde told the US radio broadcast Marketplace, the tariffs are having "minimal" effect on global trade but they are also damaging business confidence and weighing on stock markets.

"So the combined three impacts -- trade, markets, confidence -- actually reduce global growth and certainly explain our downside projection," Lagarde said, referring to the IMF's recent cuts to global growth forecasts.

The two sides are working towards memorandums of understanding to formalize their commitments ahead of a possible meeting between Trump and Xi.

"The big surprise would be a complete removal of tariffs by Trump but I’m expecting an asymmetrical removal of tariffs by China in order to get to some of these numbers," said Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a trade expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

China may have to remove its tariffs in order to increase purchases of US exports while Trump may feel no pressing obligation to lower the tariffs he imposed on Chinese imports last year, he said.

Global stock markets have been battered since last year through the ups and downs of the trade war but have tended to react positively to signs relations at least will not deteriorate further.

Word of progress had Wall Street in a cheerful mood, with the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.6 per cent at 1600 GMT.

President Donald Trump is due to meet Friday afternoon with China's top trade negotiator, as talks continue to try to defuse the escalation of the tariff war between the world's economic superpowers.

President Donald Trump is due to meet Friday afternoon with China's top trade negotiator, as talks continue to try to defuse the escalation of the tariff war between the world's economic superpowers. Global stock markets were higher as the two sides continued to project optimism, with Trump's personal involvement a likely signal of the White House's confidence in a successful outcome. Also read: US-China trade talks, free trade must not be derailed Just a week remains to avoid a sharp increase in US duty rates on more than $200 billion in Chinese exports -- though Trump has suggested he could extend this deadline if needed. The fourth round of talks has been underway all week, with senior officials meeting as of Thursday. The White House said Trump would meet with China's Vice Premier Liu He, who is leading the delegation from Beijing. China's President Xi Jinping also met with US negotiators last week in Beijing, a sign the two leaders are closely following the high-stakes talks. Analysts say the two sides are likely to trumpet mutual agreements to resolve the easier parts of the trade dispute -- increasing Chinese purchases of American exports, more open investment in China and tougher protections for intellectual property and companies' proprietary technology. The harder parts -- structural changes to China's economy including an end to Beijing's massive intervention in markets and scaling back its ambitious industrial strategy for global preeminence -- are another question. William Reinsch, a former senior Treasury official for trade in the administration of President Bill Clinton, told AFP it was unclear if Trump would seek to force Beijing to make such deep concessions. 'Combined impacts' "Will he hold out for the whole loaf? I don't think anybody knows whether he'll do that. I don’t know if he knows," said Reinsch. A risk for Trump, said Reinsch, is whether any agreement holds and the Chinese honour their commitments. "If it unravels and we have a string of unmet commitments and then US retaliation right before the election, we're kind of right back where we started," he said. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer is leading the US negotiating team, which also includes Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. In a sign of how high the stakes could be, Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, called the US-China trade tensions a "major risk" to global economic growth. Since July, the countries have hit out with tariffs on more than $360 billion in two-way trade. By themselves, Lagarde told the US radio broadcast Marketplace, the tariffs are having "minimal" effect on global trade but they are also damaging business confidence and weighing on stock markets. "So the combined three impacts -- trade, markets, confidence -- actually reduce global growth and certainly explain our downside projection," Lagarde said, referring to the IMF's recent cuts to global growth forecasts. The two sides are working towards memorandums of understanding to formalize their commitments ahead of a possible meeting between Trump and Xi. "The big surprise would be a complete removal of tariffs by Trump but I’m expecting an asymmetrical removal of tariffs by China in order to get to some of these numbers," said Gary Clyde Hufbauer, a trade expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. China may have to remove its tariffs in order to increase purchases of US exports while Trump may feel no pressing obligation to lower the tariffs he imposed on Chinese imports last year, he said. Global stock markets have been battered since last year through the ups and downs of the trade war but have tended to react positively to signs relations at least will not deteriorate further. Word of progress had Wall Street in a cheerful mood, with the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.6 per cent at 1600 GMT.

Trump to meet China's top trade negotiator as deadline presses

While there is no such thing as “free trade”, but freer trade, which gained impetus after the second world war has not only raised world output, among other things but raised, also lifted millions out of poverty. Underpinned and promoted by an institutional firmament, especially the World Trade Organisation (WTO), whose precursor was the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT),&nbsp;and what has been termed as the “liberal world order”, the freer trade paradigm is under serious threat. This holds despite US president Donald Trump’s assurances that trade talks between the United States and China were going on well and the March 1 deadline for tariffs might be extended.

The backdrop to the threat to freer trade is a mélange of the 2008 financial crisis, the assumption of Donald Trump to the highest office in the United States, with the concomitant rise of protectionism and mercantilism, or in other words, the primacy of the nation-state over a more open trading and even world order. The paradox here is that the United States, which led and pioneered the liberal economic and political world order and whose support for it was essential, benefited from an open economic order but is now retreating from it. The reasons pertain not to economics but to political economy.

While broad benefits accrue from freer trade, but it has both distributional and other economic consequences in terms of both “winners” and “losers”. This has been poignant in the United States where the distributional consequences of freer trade were acutely and intensely felt by those left behind by the gale of trade. The base brought Trump to power who, in his campaign pledges, promised to unwind the trade bargains and pacts and “make America great again(MAGA). In lieu of his pledges, Trump picked a trade fight with China and also attempted to rejigg trade between the United States, Canada and Mexico. The result has been a disruption that might feel good to some, but throws a spanner into the works of freer trade.

This insalubrious development is not only ominous but potentially threatens to roll back the stupendous gains made so far throwing into jeopardy human welfare. The question is: can freer trade be salvaged?&nbsp;

Yes. It can and it will perhaps gyrate to a dynamic of its own.&nbsp;

The reasons accrue from the nature of the 21st-century economy which is both a knowledge and a “gig” economy and the widgets, nuts and bolts one too. Trump’s focus till now has been the relocation of manufacturing to the United States. But, the country’s economy and even the global economy in which it is enmeshed has moved on. Profound and staggering developments in the Information, Communications and Technologies (ICTs), automation, robotics and Artificial Intelligence(AI) mean that the name of the game is different, especially in the developed world. This is not to demean the nuts and bolts economy which is and will remain relevant but it will be a complement to changes elsewhere. It is here that the United States, the world’s largest economy, must focus on instead of adopting a protectionist mercantilist paradigm.&nbsp;

The nature of this approach should be to reorient the country’s educational institutions and skill development in tune with the demands and the needs of the 21st century. A political price might have to made here but from a long duree perspective, it is the adoption of this particular approach that would be more sustainable and yield rewards both to the United States and the world, at large.

But, importantly, an important structural complement to the suggested paradigm, should be the creation of safety nets for those who are likely to be left behind by what is a veritable gale of “creative destruction” in the offing. 
 
Cumulatively, a novel approach toward education, skill development and a safety net could lead to a condition that would be win-win and offset the losses from freer trade. There would also ensue global prosperity which could undercut migratory pressures to both the developed world and the United States, in particular.

In the final analysis, freer trade is a blessing that has proved to be a boon for mankind. It would be a sheer travesty if its momentum is derailed, even if temporarily. What is required,&nbsp;at this delicate point in world history, is far-sighted and deft leadership that is both particular and general.&nbsp;

(Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

While there is no such thing as “free trade”, but freer trade, which gained impetus after the second world war has not only raised world output, among other things but raised, also lifted millions out of poverty.

While there is no such thing as “free trade”, but freer trade, which gained impetus after the second world war has not only raised world output, among other things but raised, also lifted millions out of poverty. Underpinned and promoted by an institutional firmament, especially the World Trade Organisation (WTO), whose precursor was the General Agreement on Trade and Tariffs (GATT), and what has been termed as the “liberal world order”, the freer trade paradigm is under serious threat. This holds despite US president Donald Trump’s assurances that trade talks between the United States and China were going on well and the March 1 deadline for tariffs might be extended. The backdrop to the threat to freer trade is a mélange of the 2008 financial crisis, the assumption of Donald Trump to the highest office in the United States, with the concomitant rise of protectionism and mercantilism, or in other words, the primacy of the nation-state over a more open trading and even world order. The paradox here is that the United States, which led and pioneered the liberal economic and political world order and whose support for it was essential, benefited from an open economic order but is now retreating from it. The reasons pertain not to economics but to political economy. While broad benefits accrue from freer trade, but it has both distributional and other economic consequences in terms of both “winners” and “losers”. This has been poignant in the United States where the distributional consequences of freer trade were acutely and intensely felt by those left behind by the gale of trade. The base brought Trump to power who, in his campaign pledges, promised to unwind the trade bargains and pacts and “make America great again(MAGA). In lieu of his pledges, Trump picked a trade fight with China and also attempted to rejigg trade between the United States, Canada and Mexico. The result has been a disruption that might feel good to some, but throws a spanner into the works of freer trade. This insalubrious development is not only ominous but potentially threatens to roll back the stupendous gains made so far throwing into jeopardy human welfare. The question is: can freer trade be salvaged? Yes. It can and it will perhaps gyrate to a dynamic of its own. The reasons accrue from the nature of the 21st-century economy which is both a knowledge and a “gig” economy and the widgets, nuts and bolts one too. Trump’s focus till now has been the relocation of manufacturing to the United States. But, the country’s economy and even the global economy in which it is enmeshed has moved on. Profound and staggering developments in the Information, Communications and Technologies (ICTs), automation, robotics and Artificial Intelligence(AI) mean that the name of the game is different, especially in the developed world. This is not to demean the nuts and bolts economy which is and will remain relevant but it will be a complement to changes elsewhere. It is here that the United States, the world’s largest economy, must focus on instead of adopting a protectionist mercantilist paradigm. The nature of this approach should be to reorient the country’s educational institutions and skill development in tune with the demands and the needs of the 21st century. A political price might have to made here but from a long duree perspective, it is the adoption of this particular approach that would be more sustainable and yield rewards both to the United States and the world, at large. But, importantly, an important structural complement to the suggested paradigm, should be the creation of safety nets for those who are likely to be left behind by what is a veritable gale of “creative destruction” in the offing. Cumulatively, a novel approach toward education, skill development and a safety net could lead to a condition that would be win-win and offset the losses from freer trade. There would also ensue global prosperity which could undercut migratory pressures to both the developed world and the United States, in particular. In the final analysis, freer trade is a blessing that has proved to be a boon for mankind. It would be a sheer travesty if its momentum is derailed, even if temporarily. What is required, at this delicate point in world history, is far-sighted and deft leadership that is both particular and general. (Disclaimer: The opinions expressed above are the personal views of the author and do not reflect the views of ZMCL.)

US-China trade talks: Free trade must not be derailed

President Donald Trump said Friday that trade negotiations with <a href="http://www.wionews.com/world/had-productive-trade-meetings-with-china-us-secretary-mnuchin-197584">China</a> were going "extremely well" and again offered the possibility of extending the March 1 deadline for a sharp rise in punitive tariffs.

Senior officials completed two days of high-stakes talks in Beijing on Friday as they try to avert the US threat to more than double tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods, which would be an unwelcome shock to the world's second-largest economy as it already has shown signs of slowing.&nbsp;

"It is going extremely well," Trump said of the talks.&nbsp;

"The tariffs are hurting China very badly. They don't want them and frankly if we can make the deal it would be my honour to remove them," he told reporters at the White House.

The president confirmed his comments earlier this week that he might be willing to hold off on increasing tariffs to 25 per cent from the current 10 per cent, if Washington and Beijing are close to finalizing an agreement to deal with US complaints about unfair trade and theft of American technology.

"There is a possibility that I will extend the date," he told reporters. "If I see we're close to a deal or the deal is going in the right direction, I would do that."

After progress in the talks in Beijing, the fourth round of negotiations is scheduled for next week in Washington.

Trump said he likes tariffs which are bringing "many billions of dollars pouring into our Treasury," but continues to state that China is paying the duties, when in fact they are paid by US companies and ultimately by American consumers in the form of higher prices.

"The tariffs are hurting China very badly. They don't want them and frankly, if we can make the deal it would be my honour to remove them."

'The vibe is good'

Chinese President Xi Jinping hailed the "important step-by-step progress," and said he hoped the two delegations would continue to "work hard" for a "win-win" agreement, according to China's state news agency Xinhua.

Wall Street was cheered by the talks' optimistic tone, with the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 350 points or 1.5 per cent around midday.

American officials accuse Beijing of seeking global industrial predominance through an array of unfair trade practices, including the "theft" of American intellectual property and massive state intervention in commodities markets.

Since a December detente, China has resumed purchases of some US soybeans and dangled massive buying of American commodities to get US trade negotiators closer to a deal.

The talks have included discussion of purchases to reduce the "large and persistent bilateral trade deficit," the White House said in a statement.&nbsp;

But many China experts say Beijing's Communist Party rulers are unlikely to make significant changes to industrial policies without a long and tough fight.

Still, expectations for an accord have been growing as China faces pressure from slowing economic growth.&nbsp;

"We all believe that China-US relations have broad common interests in safeguarding world peace and stability and promoting global economic prosperity and development," Xi told the US negotiators.

US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who led the American delegation, told Xi on Friday that while there was more work to do, they had made progress.

Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and met with China's top trade negotiator Liu He, Foreign Minister Wang Yi and central bank chief Yi Gang.&nbsp;

Bloomberg News reported that the White House was considering a 60-day deadline extension, but Trump did not offer any particulars.&nbsp;

Trump's economic advisor Larry Kudlow said of the talks, "the vibe is good" but there was no decision yet on extending the 90-day tariff truce.

The two sides last year exchanged tariffs on more than $360 billion in two-way trade.

China's politically sensitive trade surplus with the US last year hit a record $323 billion as tariffs kept Chinese buyers away from American agricultural and energy exports.

Trump has said that any eventual trade deal would need to be sealed personally with Xi, though no date has been set for a meeting.

President Donald Trump said Friday that trade negotiations with China were going "extremely well" and again offered the possibility of extending the March 1 deadline for a sharp rise in punitive tariffs.

President Donald Trump said Friday that trade negotiations with China were going "extremely well" and again offered the possibility of extending the March 1 deadline for a sharp rise in punitive tariffs. Senior officials completed two days of high-stakes talks in Beijing on Friday as they try to avert the US threat to more than double tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods, which would be an unwelcome shock to the world's second-largest economy as it already has shown signs of slowing. "It is going extremely well," Trump said of the talks. "The tariffs are hurting China very badly. They don't want them and frankly if we can make the deal it would be my honour to remove them," he told reporters at the White House. The president confirmed his comments earlier this week that he might be willing to hold off on increasing tariffs to 25 per cent from the current 10 per cent, if Washington and Beijing are close to finalizing an agreement to deal with US complaints about unfair trade and theft of American technology. "There is a possibility that I will extend the date," he told reporters. "If I see we're close to a deal or the deal is going in the right direction, I would do that." After progress in the talks in Beijing, the fourth round of negotiations is scheduled for next week in Washington. Trump said he likes tariffs which are bringing "many billions of dollars pouring into our Treasury," but continues to state that China is paying the duties, when in fact they are paid by US companies and ultimately by American consumers in the form of higher prices. "The tariffs are hurting China very badly. They don't want them and frankly, if we can make the deal it would be my honour to remove them." 'The vibe is good' Chinese President Xi Jinping hailed the "important step-by-step progress," and said he hoped the two delegations would continue to "work hard" for a "win-win" agreement, according to China's state news agency Xinhua. Wall Street was cheered by the talks' optimistic tone, with the benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average up more than 350 points or 1.5 per cent around midday. American officials accuse Beijing of seeking global industrial predominance through an array of unfair trade practices, including the "theft" of American intellectual property and massive state intervention in commodities markets. Since a December detente, China has resumed purchases of some US soybeans and dangled massive buying of American commodities to get US trade negotiators closer to a deal. The talks have included discussion of purchases to reduce the "large and persistent bilateral trade deficit," the White House said in a statement. But many China experts say Beijing's Communist Party rulers are unlikely to make significant changes to industrial policies without a long and tough fight. Still, expectations for an accord have been growing as China faces pressure from slowing economic growth. "We all believe that China-US relations have broad common interests in safeguarding world peace and stability and promoting global economic prosperity and development," Xi told the US negotiators. US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer, who led the American delegation, told Xi on Friday that while there was more work to do, they had made progress. Lighthizer and US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and met with China's top trade negotiator Liu He, Foreign Minister Wang Yi and central bank chief Yi Gang. Bloomberg News reported that the White House was considering a 60-day deadline extension, but Trump did not offer any particulars. Trump's economic advisor Larry Kudlow said of the talks, "the vibe is good" but there was no decision yet on extending the 90-day tariff truce. The two sides last year exchanged tariffs on more than $360 billion in two-way trade. China's politically sensitive trade surplus with the US last year hit a record $323 billion as tariffs kept Chinese buyers away from American agricultural and energy exports. Trump has said that any eventual trade deal would need to be sealed personally with Xi, though no date has been set for a meeting.

Trump says could extend March 1 China tariff deadline

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