Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday (February 21) ordered the deployment of troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. In a televised address, Putin ordered to despatch Russian peacekeepers to Ukraine's two breakaway regions - the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic. The Russia-Ukraine crisis impacted the prices of some of the commodities worldwide. The prices are expected to rise further. Read the detailed report here: https://www.wionews.com/world/these-commodities-could-become-super-expensive-amid-escalating-russia-ukraine-crisis-455247

Impact of Russia-Ukraine crisis on prices of commodities

As tensions continue to escalate between Russia and Ukraine, India's permanent representative to UN TS Tirumurti has now said that escalation along the border is matter of a deep concern and diplomacy is the only solution.

UNSC Meet: 'Escalation of Russia-Ukraine crisis a matter of deep concern,' says India's TS Tirumurti

President Vladimir Putin has recognised the independence of Ukraine's separatist areas. The Russian leader is sending troops to Eastern Ukraine, but the big question is- Where will he stop? How far will he go?

Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Is Vladimir Putin planning a full-scale invasion?

The Indian government called for immediate de-escalation on the Russia-Ukraine crisis and also for taking into account legitimate security interests of all countries.

Ukraine-Russia tensions: India calls for dialogue, immediate de-escalation

At an emergency session of the security council on Ukraine, India while expressing its "concern" has called for "de-escalation of tensions".&nbsp;

The session was held hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced recognition of Eastern Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.&nbsp;

India's envoy to the United Nations TS Tirumurti said, "escalation of tension along the border of Ukraine with the Russian Federation is a matter of deep concern" and these "developments have the potential to undermine peace and security of the region".&nbsp;

Calling for "restraint on all sides", the envoy said, "immediate priority is a de-escalation of tensions taking into account the legitimate security interests of all countries and aimed towards securing long term peace and stability in the region and beyond."&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/vladimir-putin-orders-troops-into-eastern-ukraine-key-points-from-his-crucial-address-455210">Vladimir Putin orders troops into eastern Ukraine: Key points from his crucial address</a>

The meeting happened after Ukraine sent a letter asking for an emergency session. Following this many countries, led by the US asked for the meeting. Interestingly, Russia is the President of the Security Council for February.&nbsp;

The Indian envoy emphasising "diplomatic dialogue" welcomed the efforts through "Trilateral Contact Group and under the Normandy format", warning that "we cannot afford to have a military escalation."&nbsp;

He also mentioned the Minsk pacts which he said: "Provide a basis for a negotiated and peaceful settlement". Minsk pact which includes Russia, Ukraine, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe OSCE is a 2014/2015 agreement that calls for a ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine regions of Donetsk, Luhansk and others among other things.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/explainer-what-will-russian-recognition-of-breakaway-ukraine-regions-mean-455193">Explainer: What will Russian recognition of breakaway Ukraine regions mean?</a>

The Normandy format of talks includes Germany, France and members of the Minsk pact and basically focuses on the pact's implementation.&nbsp;

At the meet, envoy Tirumurti said, "constructive diplomacy is need of the hour to avoid scaling up of tensions" and reiterate that the "well-being of Indian nationals is of priority to us."&nbsp;

Around twenty thousand Indian students and nationals live and study in different parts of Ukraine.&nbsp;

India has been making efforts to bring back its nationals from the country and two advisories have been issued. Special Air India flights have been started as well to bring the stranded Indian nationals.&nbsp;

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At an emergency session of the security council on Ukraine, India while expressing its "concern" has called for "de-escalation of tensions". The session was held hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced recognition of Eastern Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states.

At an emergency session of the security council on Ukraine, India while expressing its "concern" has called for "de-escalation of tensions". The session was held hours after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced recognition of Eastern Ukraine's Donetsk and Luhansk as independent states. India's envoy to the United Nations TS Tirumurti said, "escalation of tension along the border of Ukraine with the Russian Federation is a matter of deep concern" and these "developments have the potential to undermine peace and security of the region". Calling for "restraint on all sides", the envoy said, "immediate priority is a de-escalation of tensions taking into account the legitimate security interests of all countries and aimed towards securing long term peace and stability in the region and beyond." ALSO READ | Vladimir Putin orders troops into eastern Ukraine: Key points from his crucial address The meeting happened after Ukraine sent a letter asking for an emergency session. Following this many countries, led by the US asked for the meeting. Interestingly, Russia is the President of the Security Council for February. The Indian envoy emphasising "diplomatic dialogue" welcomed the efforts through "Trilateral Contact Group and under the Normandy format", warning that "we cannot afford to have a military escalation." He also mentioned the Minsk pacts which he said: "Provide a basis for a negotiated and peaceful settlement". Minsk pact which includes Russia, Ukraine, Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe OSCE is a 2014/2015 agreement that calls for a ceasefire in Eastern Ukraine regions of Donetsk, Luhansk and others among other things. ALSO READ | Explainer: What will Russian recognition of breakaway Ukraine regions mean? The Normandy format of talks includes Germany, France and members of the Minsk pact and basically focuses on the pact's implementation. At the meet, envoy Tirumurti said, "constructive diplomacy is need of the hour to avoid scaling up of tensions" and reiterate that the "well-being of Indian nationals is of priority to us." Around twenty thousand Indian students and nationals live and study in different parts of Ukraine. India has been making efforts to bring back its nationals from the country and two advisories have been issued. Special Air India flights have been started as well to bring the stranded Indian nationals. ×

Ukraine crisis: India expresses concerns; calls for de-escalation of tensions

As Russia-Ukraine tensions continue to mount, India’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations TS Tirumurti said that the increasing tension on Ukraine’s border with the Russian Federation is a matter of deep concern. He also added that these developments have weakened the peace and security of the region.

India at UNSC: Increasing tension on Ukraine’s border is a matter of deep concern

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said Tuesday that Germany has taken steps to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia over the crisis in Ukraine.

Germany halts approval of gas pipeline over Ukraine crisis

The United States is considering new sanctions against Russia, proposing to cut some of its top banks from Dollar transactions. UK has already announced sanctions blocking Russian companies access to western currencies.

US to cut Russian banks from Dollar transactions

More than 2,000 ceasefire violations have been reported in eastern Ukraine. Washington believes Putin is using the Donbas hostilities as an excuse to invade. Russia is accusing the West of using Ukraine as a tool of conflict. Is war now inevitable? Palki Sharma tells you.

Gravitas: 2,000 ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine

The United Kingdom has announced economic sanctions against Russia. While speaking at the House of Commons, British PM Boris Johnson has slammed Putin's recognition of rebel-held areas.

UK PM Johnson slams Putin's recognition of rebel-held areas, announces sanctions against Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the French and German leaders on Monday that he planned to sign a decree recognising two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent.

Here's a look at the implications for the wider crisis, in which the United States says Russia may be poised to invade Ukraine with a force of up to 190,000 troops it has massed near its neighbour's borders.

What are the breakaway regions?

Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions - collectively known as the Donbass - broke away from Ukrainian government control in 2014 and proclaimed themselves independent "people's republics", until now unrecognised. Since then, Ukraine says about 15,000 people have been killed in fighting. Russia denies being a party to the conflict but has backed the separatists in numerous ways, including through covert military support, financial aid, supplies of COVID-19 vaccines and the issue of at least 800,000 Russian passports to residents. Moscow has always denied planning to invade Ukraine.

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/us-imposes-sanctions-on-two-russian-backed-areas-in-eastern-ukraine-455190">US imposes sanctions on two Russian-backed areas in eastern Ukraine</a>

What does Russian recognition mean?

For the first time, Russia is saying it does not regard the Donbass as part of Ukraine. That could pave the way for Moscow to send military forces into the separatist regions openly, using the argument that it is intervening as an ally to protect them against Ukraine. A Russian parliament member and former Donetsk political leader, Alexander Borodai, told Reuters last month that the separatists would then look to Russia to help them wrest control of parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions still under the control of Ukrainian forces. If that happened, it could lead to open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

What about the Minsk peace process?

Russian recognition effectively kills off the 2014-15 Minsk peace agreements that, although still unimplemented, have until now been seen by all sides, including Moscow, as the best chance for a solution. The accords call for a large degree of autonomy for the two regions inside Ukraine.

How will the West respond?

Western governments have been lining up for months to warn Moscow that any movement of military forces across the Ukrainian border would draw a strong response, including stringent financial sanctions.

US&nbsp;Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that recognition "would further undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, constitute a gross violation of international law, (and) call into further question Russia’s stated commitment to continue to engage in diplomacy to achieve a peaceful resolution of this crisis".

He said it would necessitate a "swift and firm" response from the United States and its allies.

Has Russia recognised breakaway statelets before?

Yes - it recognised the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two Georgian breakaway regions, after fighting a short war with Georgia in 2008. It has provided them with extensive budget support, extended Russian citizenship to their populations and stationed thousands of troops there.

What are the pros and cons for Moscow?

In the Georgia case, Russia used recognition of the breakaway regions to justify an open-ended military presence in a neighbouring former Soviet republic in an attempt to indefinitely thwart Georgia's NATO aspirations by denying it full control of its own territory. The same considerations would apply to Ukraine.

On the downside, Moscow faces sanctions and international condemnation for abandoning the Minsk process after long maintaining that it was committed to it. It will also be saddled indefinitely with responsibility for two territories ravaged by eight years of war and in need of massive economic support.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the French and German leaders on Monday that he planned to sign a decree recognising two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent.

Russian President Vladimir Putin told the French and German leaders on Monday that he planned to sign a decree recognising two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent. Here's a look at the implications for the wider crisis, in which the United States says Russia may be poised to invade Ukraine with a force of up to 190,000 troops it has massed near its neighbour's borders. What are the breakaway regions? Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions - collectively known as the Donbass - broke away from Ukrainian government control in 2014 and proclaimed themselves independent "people's republics", until now unrecognised. Since then, Ukraine says about 15,000 people have been killed in fighting. Russia denies being a party to the conflict but has backed the separatists in numerous ways, including through covert military support, financial aid, supplies of COVID-19 vaccines and the issue of at least 800,000 Russian passports to residents. Moscow has always denied planning to invade Ukraine. ALSO READ | US imposes sanctions on two Russian-backed areas in eastern Ukraine What does Russian recognition mean? For the first time, Russia is saying it does not regard the Donbass as part of Ukraine. That could pave the way for Moscow to send military forces into the separatist regions openly, using the argument that it is intervening as an ally to protect them against Ukraine. A Russian parliament member and former Donetsk political leader, Alexander Borodai, told Reuters last month that the separatists would then look to Russia to help them wrest control of parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions still under the control of Ukrainian forces. If that happened, it could lead to open military conflict between Russia and Ukraine. What about the Minsk peace process? Russian recognition effectively kills off the 2014-15 Minsk peace agreements that, although still unimplemented, have until now been seen by all sides, including Moscow, as the best chance for a solution. The accords call for a large degree of autonomy for the two regions inside Ukraine. How will the West respond? Western governments have been lining up for months to warn Moscow that any movement of military forces across the Ukrainian border would draw a strong response, including stringent financial sanctions. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week that recognition "would further undermine Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, constitute a gross violation of international law, (and) call into further question Russia’s stated commitment to continue to engage in diplomacy to achieve a peaceful resolution of this crisis". He said it would necessitate a "swift and firm" response from the United States and its allies. Has Russia recognised breakaway statelets before? Yes - it recognised the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, two Georgian breakaway regions, after fighting a short war with Georgia in 2008. It has provided them with extensive budget support, extended Russian citizenship to their populations and stationed thousands of troops there. What are the pros and cons for Moscow? In the Georgia case, Russia used recognition of the breakaway regions to justify an open-ended military presence in a neighbouring former Soviet republic in an attempt to indefinitely thwart Georgia's NATO aspirations by denying it full control of its own territory. The same considerations would apply to Ukraine. On the downside, Moscow faces sanctions and international condemnation for abandoning the Minsk process after long maintaining that it was committed to it. It will also be saddled indefinitely with responsibility for two territories ravaged by eight years of war and in need of massive economic support.

Explainer: What will Russian recognition of breakaway Ukraine regions mean?

UK Boris Johnson has said that Britain will impose hard economic sanctions on Russia after President Vladimir Putin ordered the deployment of troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine.

UK PM Boris Johnson to announce sanctions against Russia amid Ukraine crisis

India's foreign minister S Jaishankar refused to draw parallels between China's aggression in the Indo-Pacific and Russia's build-up in Europe. What is the rationale behind India's strategy? How have Moscow and Washington responded to it? Palki Sharma tells you.

Gravitas: India walks Ukraine tightrope

Chancellor Olaf Scholz has said that Germany has taken steps to halt the process of certifying the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project from Russia over the crisis in Ukraine.

Germany halts Nord Stream 2 project amid Russia-Ukraine conflict

Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenksy said that Russia is creating the legal basis for further military aggression against Ukraine. He also demanded an immediate halt to the Nord Steam 2 project and new sanctions against Russia.

Russia preparing for further military aggression against Ukraine, says Volodymyr Zelensky

The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) held an emergency meeting on Ukraine's situation as tensions between Moscow and Kyiv continue to mount. The session took place just after Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered recognition of the independence of separatist regions Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine on Monday.

UNSC holds emergency meeting on Ukraine after Russia's latest action

The United States and the European Union are expected to impose sanctions on Russia after President Vladimir Putin ordered troops into two Moscow-backed rebel regions of Ukraine.

US, EU set to impose sanctions on Russia after Putin orders troops into two rebel regions of Ukraine

After getting battered by the pandemic, supply chain chokeholds and leaps in prices, the global economy is poised to be sent on yet another unpredictable course by an armed clash on Europe’s border.

Even before the Kremlin ordered Russian troops into separatist territories of Ukraine on Monday, the tension had taken a toll. The promise of punishing sanctions in return by President Joe Biden and the potential for Russian retaliation had already pushed down stock returns and driven up gas prices.

An outright attack by Russian troops could cause dizzying spikes in energy and food prices, fuel inflation fears and spook investors, a combination that threatens investment and growth in economies around the world.

However harsh the effects, the immediate impact will be nowhere near as devastating as the sudden economic shutdowns first caused by the coronavirus in 2020. Russia is a transcontinental behemoth with 146 million people and a huge nuclear arsenal, as well as a key supplier of the oil, gas and raw materials that keep the world’s factories running. But unlike China, which is a manufacturing powerhouse and intimately woven into intricate supply chains, Russia is a minor player in the global economy.

Italy, with half the people and fewer natural resources, has an economy that is twice the size. Poland exports more goods to the European Union than Russia.

“Russia is incredibly unimportant in the global economy except for oil and gas,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard economist who was an adviser to President Barack Obama. “It’s basically a big gas station.”

Of course, a closed gas station can be crippling for those who depend on it. The result is that any economic damage will be unevenly spread, intense in some countries and industries and unnoticed in others.

Europe gets nearly 40% of its natural gas and 25% of its oil from Russia, and is likely to be walloped with spikes in heating and gas bills, which are already soaring. Natural gas reserves are at less than one-third of capacity, with weeks of cold weather ahead, and European leaders have already accused Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, of reducing supplies to gain a political edge.

And then there are food prices, which have climbed to their highest level in more than a decade largely because of the pandemic’s supply chain mess, according to a recent United Nations report. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of wheat, and with Ukraine, accounts for nearly one-quarter of total global exports. For some countries, the dependence is much greater. That flow of grain makes up more than 70% of Egypt and Turkey’s total wheat imports.

This will put further strain on Turkey, which is already in the middle of an economic crisis and struggling with inflation that is running close to 50%, with skyrocketing food, fuel and electricity prices.

And as usual, the burden falls heaviest on the most vulnerable. “Poorer people spend a higher share of incomes on food and heating,” said Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at Oxford University.

Ukraine, long known as the “breadbasket of Europe,” actually sends more than 40% of its wheat and corn exports to the Middle East or Africa, where there are worries that further food shortages and price increases could stoke social unrest.

Lebanon, for example, which is experiencing one of the most devastating economic crises in more than a century, gets more than half of its wheat from Ukraine, which is also the world’s largest exporter of seed oils like sunflower and rapeseed.

On Monday, the White House responded to Putin’s decision to recognize the independence of two Russian-backed territories in the country’s east by saying it would begin imposing limited sanctions on the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said Biden would soon issue an executive order prohibiting investment, trade and financing with people in those regions.

Analysts watching the unfolding conflict have mapped out a range of scenarios from mild to severe. The fallout on working-class families and Wall Street traders depends on how an invasion plays out: whether Russian troops stay near the border or attack the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv; whether the fighting lasts for days or months; what kind of Western sanctions are imposed; and whether Putin responds by withholding critical gas supplies from Europe or launching insidious cyberattacks.

“Think about it rolling out in stages,” said Julia Friedlander, director of the economic statecraft initiative at the Atlantic Council. “This is likely to play out as a slow motion drama.”

As became clear from the pandemic, minor interruptions in one region can generate major disruptions far away. Isolated shortages and price surges — whether of gas, wheat, aluminum or nickel — can snowball in a world still struggling to recover from the pandemic.

“You have to look at the backdrop against which this is coming,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY-Parthenon. “There is high inflation, strained supply chains and uncertainty about what central banks are going to do and how insistent price rises are.”

The additional stresses may be relatively small in isolation, but they are piling on economies that are still recovering from the economic body blows inflicted by the pandemic.

What’s also clear, Daco added, is that “political uncertainty and volatility weigh on economic activity.”

That means an invasion could have a dual effect — slowing economic activity and raising prices.

In the United States, the Federal Reserve is already confronting the highest inflation in 40 years, at 7.5% in January, and is expected to start raising interest rates next month. Higher energy prices set off by a conflict in Europe may be transitory but they could feed worries about a wage-price spiral.

“We could see a new burst of inflation,” said Christopher Miller, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an assistant professor at Tufts University.

Also fueling inflation fears are possible shortages of essential metals like palladium, aluminum and nickel, creating another disruption to global supply chains already suffering from the pandemic, trucker blockades in Canada and shortages of semiconductors.

The price of palladium, for example, used in automotive exhaust systems, mobile phones and even dental fillings, has soared in recent weeks because of fears that Russia, the world’s largest exporter of the metal, could be cut off from global markets. The price of nickel, used to make steel and electric car batteries, has also been jumping.

It’s too early to gauge the precise impact of an armed conflict, said Lars Stenqvist, chief technology officer of Volvo, the Swedish truck maker. But he added, “It is a very, very serious thing.”

“We have a number of scenarios on the table and we are following the developments of the situation day by day,” Stenqvist said Monday.

The West has taken steps to blunt the impact on Europe if Putin decides to retaliate. The U.S. has ramped up delivery of liquefied natural gas and asked other suppliers like Qatar to do the same.

The demand for oil might add momentum to negotiations to revive a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Iran, which is estimated to have as many as 80 million barrels of oil in storage, has been locked out of much of the world’s markets since 2018, when President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear accord and reimposed sanctions.

Some of the sanctions against Russia that the Biden administration is considering, such as cutting off access to the system of international payments known as SWIFT or blocking companies from selling anything to Russia that contains American-made components, would hurt anyone who does business with Russia. But across the board, the U.S. is much less vulnerable than the European Union, which is Russia’s largest trading partner.

Americans, as Biden has already warned, are likely to see higher gasoline prices. But because the U.S. is a large producer of natural gas, those price increases are not nearly as steep and as broad as elsewhere. And Europe has many more links to Russia and engages in more financial transactions — including paying for the Russian gas.

Oil companies like Shell and Total have joint ventures in Russia, while BP boasts that it “is one of the biggest foreign investors in Europe,” with ties to the Russian oil company Rosneft. Airbus, the European aviation giant, gets titanium from Russia. And European banks, particularly those in Germany, France and Italy, have lent billions of dollars to Russian borrowers.

“Severe sanctions that hurt Russia painfully and comprehensively have potential to do huge damage to European customers,” said Adam Tooze, director of the European Institute at Columbia University.

Depending on what happens, the most significant effects on the global economy may manifest themselves only over the long run.

One result would be to push Russia to have closer economic ties to China. The two nations recently negotiated a 30-year contract for Russia to supply gas to China through a new pipeline.

“Russia is likely to pivot all energy and commodity exports to China,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics.

The crisis is also contributing to a reassessment of the global economy’s structure and concerns about self-sufficiency. The pandemic has already highlighted the downsides of far-flung supply chains that rely on lean production.

Now Europe’s dependence on Russian gas is spurring discussions about expanding energy sources, which could further sideline Russia’s presence in the global economy.

“In the longer term, it’s going to push Europe to diversify,” said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow working on international trade policy at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. As for Russia, the real cost “would be corrosive over time and really making it much more difficult to do business with Russian entities and deterring investment.”

After getting battered by the pandemic, supply chain chokeholds and leaps in prices, the global economy is poised to be sent on yet another unpredictable course by an armed clash on Europe’s border.

After getting battered by the pandemic, supply chain chokeholds and leaps in prices, the global economy is poised to be sent on yet another unpredictable course by an armed clash on Europe’s border. Even before the Kremlin ordered Russian troops into separatist territories of Ukraine on Monday, the tension had taken a toll. The promise of punishing sanctions in return by President Joe Biden and the potential for Russian retaliation had already pushed down stock returns and driven up gas prices. An outright attack by Russian troops could cause dizzying spikes in energy and food prices, fuel inflation fears and spook investors, a combination that threatens investment and growth in economies around the world. However harsh the effects, the immediate impact will be nowhere near as devastating as the sudden economic shutdowns first caused by the coronavirus in 2020. Russia is a transcontinental behemoth with 146 million people and a huge nuclear arsenal, as well as a key supplier of the oil, gas and raw materials that keep the world’s factories running. But unlike China, which is a manufacturing powerhouse and intimately woven into intricate supply chains, Russia is a minor player in the global economy. Italy, with half the people and fewer natural resources, has an economy that is twice the size. Poland exports more goods to the European Union than Russia. “Russia is incredibly unimportant in the global economy except for oil and gas,” said Jason Furman, a Harvard economist who was an adviser to President Barack Obama. “It’s basically a big gas station.” Of course, a closed gas station can be crippling for those who depend on it. The result is that any economic damage will be unevenly spread, intense in some countries and industries and unnoticed in others. Europe gets nearly 40% of its natural gas and 25% of its oil from Russia, and is likely to be walloped with spikes in heating and gas bills, which are already soaring. Natural gas reserves are at less than one-third of capacity, with weeks of cold weather ahead, and European leaders have already accused Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, of reducing supplies to gain a political edge. And then there are food prices, which have climbed to their highest level in more than a decade largely because of the pandemic’s supply chain mess, according to a recent United Nations report. Russia is the world’s largest supplier of wheat, and with Ukraine, accounts for nearly one-quarter of total global exports. For some countries, the dependence is much greater. That flow of grain makes up more than 70% of Egypt and Turkey’s total wheat imports. This will put further strain on Turkey, which is already in the middle of an economic crisis and struggling with inflation that is running close to 50%, with skyrocketing food, fuel and electricity prices. And as usual, the burden falls heaviest on the most vulnerable. “Poorer people spend a higher share of incomes on food and heating,” said Ian Goldin, a professor of globalization and development at Oxford University. Ukraine, long known as the “breadbasket of Europe,” actually sends more than 40% of its wheat and corn exports to the Middle East or Africa, where there are worries that further food shortages and price increases could stoke social unrest. Lebanon, for example, which is experiencing one of the most devastating economic crises in more than a century, gets more than half of its wheat from Ukraine, which is also the world’s largest exporter of seed oils like sunflower and rapeseed. On Monday, the White House responded to Putin’s decision to recognize the independence of two Russian-backed territories in the country’s east by saying it would begin imposing limited sanctions on the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics. Jen Psaki, the White House press secretary, said Biden would soon issue an executive order prohibiting investment, trade and financing with people in those regions. Analysts watching the unfolding conflict have mapped out a range of scenarios from mild to severe. The fallout on working-class families and Wall Street traders depends on how an invasion plays out: whether Russian troops stay near the border or attack the Ukrainian capital, Kyiv; whether the fighting lasts for days or months; what kind of Western sanctions are imposed; and whether Putin responds by withholding critical gas supplies from Europe or launching insidious cyberattacks. “Think about it rolling out in stages,” said Julia Friedlander, director of the economic statecraft initiative at the Atlantic Council. “This is likely to play out as a slow motion drama.” As became clear from the pandemic, minor interruptions in one region can generate major disruptions far away. Isolated shortages and price surges — whether of gas, wheat, aluminum or nickel — can snowball in a world still struggling to recover from the pandemic. “You have to look at the backdrop against which this is coming,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY-Parthenon. “There is high inflation, strained supply chains and uncertainty about what central banks are going to do and how insistent price rises are.” The additional stresses may be relatively small in isolation, but they are piling on economies that are still recovering from the economic body blows inflicted by the pandemic. What’s also clear, Daco added, is that “political uncertainty and volatility weigh on economic activity.” That means an invasion could have a dual effect — slowing economic activity and raising prices. In the United States, the Federal Reserve is already confronting the highest inflation in 40 years, at 7.5% in January, and is expected to start raising interest rates next month. Higher energy prices set off by a conflict in Europe may be transitory but they could feed worries about a wage-price spiral. “We could see a new burst of inflation,” said Christopher Miller, a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and an assistant professor at Tufts University. Also fueling inflation fears are possible shortages of essential metals like palladium, aluminum and nickel, creating another disruption to global supply chains already suffering from the pandemic, trucker blockades in Canada and shortages of semiconductors. The price of palladium, for example, used in automotive exhaust systems, mobile phones and even dental fillings, has soared in recent weeks because of fears that Russia, the world’s largest exporter of the metal, could be cut off from global markets. The price of nickel, used to make steel and electric car batteries, has also been jumping. It’s too early to gauge the precise impact of an armed conflict, said Lars Stenqvist, chief technology officer of Volvo, the Swedish truck maker. But he added, “It is a very, very serious thing.” “We have a number of scenarios on the table and we are following the developments of the situation day by day,” Stenqvist said Monday. The West has taken steps to blunt the impact on Europe if Putin decides to retaliate. The U.S. has ramped up delivery of liquefied natural gas and asked other suppliers like Qatar to do the same. The demand for oil might add momentum to negotiations to revive a deal to curb Iran’s nuclear program. Iran, which is estimated to have as many as 80 million barrels of oil in storage, has been locked out of much of the world’s markets since 2018, when President Donald Trump withdrew from the nuclear accord and reimposed sanctions. Some of the sanctions against Russia that the Biden administration is considering, such as cutting off access to the system of international payments known as SWIFT or blocking companies from selling anything to Russia that contains American-made components, would hurt anyone who does business with Russia. But across the board, the U.S. is much less vulnerable than the European Union, which is Russia’s largest trading partner. Americans, as Biden has already warned, are likely to see higher gasoline prices. But because the U.S. is a large producer of natural gas, those price increases are not nearly as steep and as broad as elsewhere. And Europe has many more links to Russia and engages in more financial transactions — including paying for the Russian gas. Oil companies like Shell and Total have joint ventures in Russia, while BP boasts that it “is one of the biggest foreign investors in Europe,” with ties to the Russian oil company Rosneft. Airbus, the European aviation giant, gets titanium from Russia. And European banks, particularly those in Germany, France and Italy, have lent billions of dollars to Russian borrowers. “Severe sanctions that hurt Russia painfully and comprehensively have potential to do huge damage to European customers,” said Adam Tooze, director of the European Institute at Columbia University. Depending on what happens, the most significant effects on the global economy may manifest themselves only over the long run. One result would be to push Russia to have closer economic ties to China. The two nations recently negotiated a 30-year contract for Russia to supply gas to China through a new pipeline. “Russia is likely to pivot all energy and commodity exports to China,” said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics. The crisis is also contributing to a reassessment of the global economy’s structure and concerns about self-sufficiency. The pandemic has already highlighted the downsides of far-flung supply chains that rely on lean production. Now Europe’s dependence on Russian gas is spurring discussions about expanding energy sources, which could further sideline Russia’s presence in the global economy. “In the longer term, it’s going to push Europe to diversify,” said Jeffrey Schott, a senior fellow working on international trade policy at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. As for Russia, the real cost “would be corrosive over time and really making it much more difficult to do business with Russian entities and deterring investment.”

What’s at stake for the global economy if Russia invades Ukraine

Oil&nbsp;hit its&nbsp;highest&nbsp;since&nbsp;2014&nbsp;on Tuesday as tensions between&nbsp;Russia&nbsp;and&nbsp;Ukraine&nbsp;escalated after Moscow ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern&nbsp;Ukraine, adding to supply concerns that are pushing prices to near $100 a barrel.

The United States and its European allies are poised to announce new sanctions against&nbsp;Russia&nbsp;after President Vladimir Putin formally recognised the two regions in eastern&nbsp;Ukraine, escalating a security crisis on the continent.

"The potential for a rally over $100 a barrel has received an enormous boost," said Tamas Varga of&nbsp;oil&nbsp;broker PVM. "Those who have bet on such a move anticipated the&nbsp;escalation&nbsp;of the conflict."

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/amid-rising-tensions-osce-reports-more-than-3000-new-ceasefires-violations-in-eastern-ukraine-455242">Amid rising tensions, OSCE reports more than 3,000 new ceasefires violations in eastern Ukraine</a>

Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up $3.38, or 3.5 per cent, at $98.77 at 1000 GMT, having earlier reached $99.50, the&nbsp;highest&nbsp;since&nbsp;September&nbsp;2014.

US&nbsp;West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped $4.40, or 4.8 per cent, to $95.47 versus Friday's settlement, having earlier reached $96, also the&nbsp;highest&nbsp;since&nbsp;2014. The US&nbsp;market was closed on Monday for a public holiday.

"We see the&nbsp;oil&nbsp;market in a period of frothiness and nervousness, spiced up by geopolitical fears and emotions," said Julius Baer analyst Norbert Rücker.

"Given the prevailing mood,&nbsp;oil&nbsp;prices may very likely climb into the triple digits in the near term."

Also read |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/photos/donetsk-and-lugansk-ukraines-breakaway-republics-455307">Donetsk and Lugansk: Ukraine's breakaway republic</a>

The crisis over&nbsp;Ukraine&nbsp;has added further support to an&nbsp;oil&nbsp;market that has surged due to tight supplies as demand recovers from the coronavirus pandemic.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, have resisted calls to boost supply more rapidly.

A senior British minister said on Tuesday&nbsp;Russia's invasion of&nbsp;Ukraine&nbsp;has created a situation as grave as the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when a confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union brought the world to the brink of nuclear war.

Watch |&nbsp;Gravitas: 2,000 ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine

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Nigeria's minister of state for petroleum on Tuesday stuck to the OPEC+ view that more supply was not needed, citing the prospect of more production from Iran if its nuclear deal with world powers is revived.

Talks are ongoing on renewing Iran's nuclear agreement with world powers, which could eventually boost Iran's&nbsp;oil&nbsp;exports by over 1 million barrels per day.

Oil hit its highest since 2014 on Tuesday as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated after Moscow ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, adding to supply concerns that are pushing prices to near $100 a barrel.

Oil hit its highest since 2014 on Tuesday as tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated after Moscow ordered troops into two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, adding to supply concerns that are pushing prices to near $100 a barrel. The United States and its European allies are poised to announce new sanctions against Russia after President Vladimir Putin formally recognised the two regions in eastern Ukraine, escalating a security crisis on the continent. "The potential for a rally over $100 a barrel has received an enormous boost," said Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM. "Those who have bet on such a move anticipated the escalation of the conflict." Also read | Amid rising tensions, OSCE reports more than 3,000 new ceasefires violations in eastern Ukraine Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up $3.38, or 3.5 per cent, at $98.77 at 1000 GMT, having earlier reached $99.50, the highest since September 2014. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped $4.40, or 4.8 per cent, to $95.47 versus Friday's settlement, having earlier reached $96, also the highest since 2014. The US market was closed on Monday for a public holiday. "We see the oil market in a period of frothiness and nervousness, spiced up by geopolitical fears and emotions," said Julius Baer analyst Norbert Rücker. "Given the prevailing mood, oil prices may very likely climb into the triple digits in the near term." Also read | Donetsk and Lugansk: Ukraine's breakaway republic The crisis over Ukraine has added further support to an oil market that has surged due to tight supplies as demand recovers from the coronavirus pandemic. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, have resisted calls to boost supply more rapidly. A senior British minister said on Tuesday Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created a situation as grave as the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when a confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union brought the world to the brink of nuclear war. Watch | Gravitas: 2,000 ceasefire violations in eastern Ukraine Nigeria's minister of state for petroleum on Tuesday stuck to the OPEC+ view that more supply was not needed, citing the prospect of more production from Iran if its nuclear deal with world powers is revived. Talks are ongoing on renewing Iran's nuclear agreement with world powers, which could eventually boost Iran's oil exports by over 1 million barrels per day.

Ukraine-Russia crisis: Oil hits highest since 2014

After weeks of warnings to de-escalate military maneuvers in eastern Ukraine, US has now imposed a series of limited sanctions on the two Russian-backed areas in eastern Ukraine's Donbass region. The move came after Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the independence of two separatist regions in eastern Ukraine.

Biden condemns Putin's recognition of Ukraine breakaway regions, now imposes sanctions

United States announces new sanction as Russia backs Ukraine's rebel regions

Russia's recognition of Ukraine's rebel regions has drawn differing views within Ukraine. Kyiv residents have refused to accept it while Donetsk celebrated the move, there were celebrations in the center of the city of Donetsk, some residents of rebel controlled Donetsk celebrated with fireworks.

Donetsk residents celebrate recognition, wave Russian flags

Markets across Asia tumbled on Tuesday morning as tensions between Ukraine and Russia continued to escalate.

Asia markets sink as tensions between Ukraine and Russia escalate

Tensions have ratcheted in eastern Ukraine following Russian recognition of independence of separatist regions, fears of an invasion are now growing in the countries. Recognition of the rebel-held territory's independence will effectively shatter the Minsk peace agreements. John Blaxland , International Affairs expert shares his views on the same.

Russia recognizes independence of Ukraine separatist regions, US condemns move

Tensions have ratcheted in eastern Ukraine following Russian recognition of independence of separatist regions, fears of an invasion are now growing in the countries. Recognition of the rebel-held territory's independence will effectively shatter the Minsk peace agreements.

Fears of Russian invasion growing in Eastern Ukraine

Russia's decision to recognize two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine as independent with “peacekeeping operation” into the area has accelerated the crisis. Watch this report for more.

Ukraine's 2 breakaway regions are independent, Russian envoy speaks at the UNSC

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday (February 21) ordered the deployment of troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. In a televised address, Putin ordered to despatch Russian peacekeepers to Ukraine's two breakaway regions - the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic.

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday (February 21) ordered the deployment of troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine. In a televised address, Putin ordered to despatch Russian peacekeepers to Ukraine's two breakaway regions - the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and the Lugansk People's Republic. The Russia-Ukraine crisis impacted the prices of some of the commodities worldwide. The prices are expected to rise further: Here's a list: Gold Gold prices are already rising globally amid the ongoing conflict and after Putin's latest move to deploy troops to two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, the gold hit a near nine-month high on Tuesday (February 22). Spot gold XAU= was up 0.2% at $1,909.60 per ounce by 0332 GMT, after scaling its highest since June 1 at $1,913.89 per ounce earlier. US gold futures GCv1 gained 0.6% to $1,911.50. Jeffrey Halley, who is a senior market analyst at OANDA, said: "With the situation deteriorating seemingly by the day in Eastern Europe, there is very little reason to be negative on gold at the moment." Halley added, "Rising stagflationary pressures around the world are also underpinning the precious metal, a situation that will be exacerbated by massive Western sanctions on Russia if they come to play." ALSO READ | US imposes sanctions on two Russian-backed areas in eastern Ukraine Aluminium The escalating border tensions between Russia and Ukraine could result in soaring prices of Aluminium as Russia accounts for approximately 6 per cent of the global aluminium supply. The conflict could result in a potential supply shock in the aluminium market, which is already tight. In recent days, Aluminum prices have risen about 15 per cent till Feb 21. The prices are near multi-year highs and there's a possibility that it could still rise further. Christopher LaFemini, who is a Jefferies analyst quoted as saying by Oilprice.com that when the conflict ends, aluminium prices might decline but will rise again because the deficit would persist. Oil After Putin's latest announcement, oil jumped to a seven-year high. Important to note that Russia is an oil and gas powerhouse, as the country is pumping about nine million barrels of crude oil a day. Crude - already up more than 20 per cent this year on surging demand - piled higher still on Tuesday, with Brent closing in on the $100 mark for the first time since 2014. Hopes of an Iran nuclear deal, which could see Tehran resume global oil exports, were unable to temper the gains. The jump in oil is compounding worries about inflation around the world, with the Federal Reserve coming under intense pressure to tighten monetary policy to prevent prices from running out of control. ALSO READ | Vladimir Putin orders troops into eastern Ukraine: Key points from his crucial address Natural gas The ongoing conflict could result in much higher prices for natural gas as Russia is a leading producer of natural gas. As per BP data, the country pumped about 639 billion cubic meters of natural gas in 2021, which was nearly 17 per cent of global production of 3.854 trillion cubic meters. West claims that Russia is using natural gas as a tool to take advantage of the crisis situation. The claims also state that Russia delays in the certification of Nord Stream 2, which is a system of offshore natural gas pipelines in Europe, running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. Copper Russia produced 920,000 tonnes of refined copper in 2021, which is about 3.5 per cent of the world's total, the USGS data tells. As per a report by Oilprice.com, UMMC and Russian Copper Company are the other two major producers. Europe and Asia are two major export markets for Russia and the ongoing conflict is likely to impact exports resulting in higher prices globally. Cobalt The Russia-Ukraine conflict could also result in rising prices of Cobalt. Russia produced 7,600 tonnes of cobalt last year, more than 4 per cent of the world total, as per the data from the US Geological Survey (USGS). ×

These commodities could become super expensive amid escalating Russia-Ukraine crisis

Hundreds flee from the eastern Donbass region after reports of shelling and the OSCE will be holding its security meeting later in the day today. The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has urged for an immediate ceasefire in the area.

Explosions heard in Ukraine's Donetsk, OSCE calls for security meet to discuss de-escalation

The Pentagon has claimed that an attack on Ukraine may happen today, but there is still time for diplomacy.

This development occurs at a time when world leaders are renewing diplomatic efforts in the hopes of averting a Russian invasion of Ukraine.&nbsp;

According to the White House, President Joe Biden has agreed to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in principle if he refrains from attacking his neighbour, which US officials believe is becoming increasingly likely.&nbsp;

When the military drills in Belarus, which is located on Ukraine's northern border, were set to end on Sunday, Russian forces were scheduled to return home.

However, Moscow and Minsk have announced that Russian forces will remain in the country permanently.

The Russian forces' prolonged presence in Belarus has generated fears that they will be dispatched to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, a metropolis of 3 million people less than three hours' drive from the Belarus border.&nbsp;

According to US sources, more than 150,000 Russian troops are massed near Ukraine's borders.

Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's and the Kremlin's claims that some troops have started to evacuate, Biden informed reporters that more Russian military have moved in, contradicting Moscow's claims.&nbsp;

It's still unclear whether Putin intends to strike his former Soviet neighbour.

Russia has denied any invasion intentions and reaffirmed its insistence that the US and NATO refuse to admit Ukraine to the armed alliance.&nbsp;

(With inputs from agencies)

The Pentagon has claimed that an attack on Ukraine may happen today, but there is still time for diplomacy. This development occurs at a time when world leaders are renewing diplomatic efforts in the hopes of averting a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The Pentagon has claimed that an attack on Ukraine may happen today, but there is still time for diplomacy. This development occurs at a time when world leaders are renewing diplomatic efforts in the hopes of averting a Russian invasion of Ukraine. According to the White House, President Joe Biden has agreed to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in principle if he refrains from attacking his neighbour, which US officials believe is becoming increasingly likely. When the military drills in Belarus, which is located on Ukraine's northern border, were set to end on Sunday, Russian forces were scheduled to return home. However, Moscow and Minsk have announced that Russian forces will remain in the country permanently. The Russian forces' prolonged presence in Belarus has generated fears that they will be dispatched to the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv, a metropolis of 3 million people less than three hours' drive from the Belarus border. According to US sources, more than 150,000 Russian troops are massed near Ukraine's borders. Despite Russian President Vladimir Putin's and the Kremlin's claims that some troops have started to evacuate, Biden informed reporters that more Russian military have moved in, contradicting Moscow's claims. It's still unclear whether Putin intends to strike his former Soviet neighbour. Russia has denied any invasion intentions and reaffirmed its insistence that the US and NATO refuse to admit Ukraine to the armed alliance. (With inputs from agencies)

Pentagon says attack on Ukraine could happen today, but there is still time for diplomacy

The Russia and Ukraine border tensions continue to escalate despite efforts to defuse it with diplomatic talks. In the latest development, the United States media reports cited intelligence inputs and stated that the Russian military has been ordered to 'attack' Ukraine.&nbsp;

The reports have also added that the military is moving forward with an intention to attack Ukraine. These reports added to the fears of Western countries that Russia will attack at "any time".&nbsp;

As per the reports, it was that intelligence that gave US President Joe Biden the confidence to say on Friday (February 18) he was "convinced" that Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to invade.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/biden-ready-to-meet-putin-until-the-moment-ukraine-invasion-begins-454912">Biden ready to meet Putin 'until the moment' Ukraine invasion begins</a>

However, there's no official statement on the reports by several media outlets such as Washington Post, CBS, the New York Times, CNN.&nbsp;

The Washington Post noted: "US intelligence that provided Biden with the confidence to make the assertion came from an order given to Russian subordinates to proceed with a full-scale attack, according to several people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter's sensitivity."&nbsp;&nbsp;

CNN said other signs that might indicate an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine "have not yet been observed" citing an anonymous source. The source also warned that orders to attack could still be withdrawn, or that the intelligence might have been planted to mislead the West.&nbsp;

ALSO READ |&nbsp;<a href="https://www.wionews.com/world/russia-ukraine-crisis-french-and-russian-foreign-ministers-to-speak-on-monday-454841">Russia-Ukraine crisis: French and Russian foreign ministers to speak on Monday</a>

Russia has placed more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine's borders in recent weeks, the United States and Western allies have estimated.&nbsp;

US official told reporters Friday, insisting on anonymity that "forty to fifty per cent (of those troops) are in an attack position. They have uncoiled in tactical assembly in the last 48 hours".&nbsp;

Reports have also quoted a US official, who on Sunday said that Biden's assertion that Putin has made the decision to roll Russian forces into Ukraine was based on intelligence that Russian front-line commanders have been given orders to begin final preparations for an attack.&nbsp;

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(With inputs from agencies)

The Russia and Ukraine border tensions continue to escalate despite efforts to defuse it with diplomatic talks. In the latest development, the United States media reports cited intelligence inputs and stated that the Russian military has been ordered to 'attack' Ukraine.

The Russia and Ukraine border tensions continue to escalate despite efforts to defuse it with diplomatic talks. In the latest development, the United States media reports cited intelligence inputs and stated that the Russian military has been ordered to 'attack' Ukraine. The reports have also added that the military is moving forward with an intention to attack Ukraine. These reports added to the fears of Western countries that Russia will attack at "any time". As per the reports, it was that intelligence that gave US President Joe Biden the confidence to say on Friday (February 18) he was "convinced" that Russian President Vladimir Putin had decided to invade. ALSO READ | Biden ready to meet Putin 'until the moment' Ukraine invasion begins However, there's no official statement on the reports by several media outlets such as Washington Post, CBS, the New York Times, CNN. The Washington Post noted: "US intelligence that provided Biden with the confidence to make the assertion came from an order given to Russian subordinates to proceed with a full-scale attack, according to several people familiar with the matter, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter's sensitivity." CNN said other signs that might indicate an imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine "have not yet been observed" citing an anonymous source. The source also warned that orders to attack could still be withdrawn, or that the intelligence might have been planted to mislead the West. ALSO READ | Russia-Ukraine crisis: French and Russian foreign ministers to speak on Monday Russia has placed more than 150,000 troops near Ukraine's borders in recent weeks, the United States and Western allies have estimated. US official told reporters Friday, insisting on anonymity that "forty to fifty per cent (of those troops) are in an attack position. They have uncoiled in tactical assembly in the last 48 hours". Reports have also quoted a US official, who on Sunday said that Biden's assertion that Putin has made the decision to roll Russian forces into Ukraine was based on intelligence that Russian front-line commanders have been given orders to begin final preparations for an attack. × (With inputs from agencies)

Did Russia give orders to 'attack' Ukraine? US media cites intel inputs that were apparently known to Biden

Tensions have been escalating in Ukraine as the country remains on the brink of war. According to the US, the war is just hours away. Pentagon has said that 'Russia could attack Ukraine today'.

Pentagon says Russia could attack on Ukraine today

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